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B717fan
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Kim Jong-Un dying?

Tue Apr 21, 2020 2:19 am

According to CNN, US intellegence is monitoring reports that Kim Jong-Un is in "grave danger" following some kind of surgery.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/20/politics ... index.html
 
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WarRI1
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Re: Kim Jong-Un dying?

Tue Apr 21, 2020 2:24 am

I am certainly not going to say him, Good Luck. I will leave that to the King of Platitudes and also his good friend trump to wax poetic about the love letters they exchanged.
It is better to die on your feet, than live on your knees.
 
continental004
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Re: Kim Jong-Un dying?

Tue Apr 21, 2020 2:26 am

I am cackling and awaiting his death. #thoughtsandprayers
 
rfields5421
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Re: Kim Jong-Un dying?

Tue Apr 21, 2020 2:45 am

Well, we know that it cannot certainly be COVID-19.

Yeah, right. Anyone want to buy a slightly used bridge in Brooklyn?
Not all who wander are lost.
 
TTailedTiger
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Re: Kim Jong-Un dying?

Tue Apr 21, 2020 2:58 am

Who will replace him?
 
NIKV69
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Re: Kim Jong-Un dying?

Tue Apr 21, 2020 3:04 am

Katy Tur of CNN leaked that two US officials confirmed he is brain dead via a tweet and then deleted it. Wow this could be a revolution!
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winginit
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Re: Kim Jong-Un dying?

Tue Apr 21, 2020 3:04 am

TTailedTiger wrote:
Who will replace him?


I believe consensus is Choe Ryong Hae, one of the three members of the Politburo Standing Committee and current Chairman of the Organization and Guidance Department

Not only is he Kim Jong-Un's undisputed number two, but his own father was besties with Kim Il-Sung, and his son married Kim Jong-Un's younger sister, so he is literally family. He is, as you can guess, an equally despicable human, so unlikely anything would change.
 
VSMUT
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Re: Kim Jong-Un dying?

Tue Apr 21, 2020 5:31 am

continental004 wrote:
I am cackling and awaiting his death. #thoughtsandprayers


...until you realize they have a population indoctrinated to hate the US and have a number of nuclear weapons and thousands of chemical weapons lying around. Do you really want a repeat of the leaderless voids in Iraq and Afghanistan with those weapons available?
 
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Dutchy
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Re: Kim Jong-Un dying?

Tue Apr 21, 2020 7:16 am

VSMUT wrote:
continental004 wrote:
I am cackling and awaiting his death. #thoughtsandprayers


...until you realize they have a population indoctrinated to hate the US and have a number of nuclear weapons and thousands of chemical weapons lying around. Do you really want a repeat of the leaderless voids in Iraq and Afghanistan with those weapons available?


But it will not be leaderless, the regime will maintain itself and put in a successor. So, in the end, it doesn't matter if Kim Jong-Un dies or not. Nothing will change in North Korea as such.
Many happy landings, greetings from The Netherlands!
 
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scbriml
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Re: Kim Jong-Un dying?

Tue Apr 21, 2020 7:29 am

South Korea says he's not.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-52364055
Reports that North Korean leader Kim Jong-un is seriously ill after heart surgery are not true, officials in South Korea have said.
...
But then came a more sensational headline in US media that the North Korean leader was in a critical condition after heart surgery.

However, a statement from the South Korean government, and sources at Chinese intelligence - speaking to the Reuters news agency - said this was not true.
Time flies like an arrow. Fruit flies like a banana!
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TTailedTiger
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Re: Kim Jong-Un dying?

Tue Apr 21, 2020 7:38 am

scbriml wrote:
South Korea says he's not.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-52364055
Reports that North Korean leader Kim Jong-un is seriously ill after heart surgery are not true, officials in South Korea have said.
...
But then came a more sensational headline in US media that the North Korean leader was in a critical condition after heart surgery.

However, a statement from the South Korean government, and sources at Chinese intelligence - speaking to the Reuters news agency - said this was not true.


So why hasn't anyone seen or heard from him? What did you think S Korea or China was going to say? S Korea isn't going to piss off an unstable country that's within spitting distance of them and China isn't even capable of telling the truth anymore.
 
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scbriml
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Re: Kim Jong-Un dying?

Tue Apr 21, 2020 7:41 am

TTailedTiger wrote:
So why hasn't anyone seen or heard from him?


That's a rhetorical question, right?
Time flies like an arrow. Fruit flies like a banana!
There are 10 types of people in the World - those that understand binary and those that don't.
 
VSMUT
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Re: Kim Jong-Un dying?

Tue Apr 21, 2020 7:54 am

TTailedTiger wrote:
So why hasn't anyone seen or heard from him?


Since when did we ever hear from or see a North Korean leader on a regular basis? Hint: never.


TTailedTiger wrote:
What did you think S Korea or China was going to say? S Korea isn't going to piss off an unstable country that's within spitting distance of them


The alternative if you don't want to piss them off is to say nothing at all. South Korea wasn't obliged to say anything.


Dutchy wrote:
But it will not be leaderless, the regime will maintain itself and put in a successor. So, in the end, it doesn't matter if Kim Jong-Un dies or not. Nothing will change in North Korea as such.


The "regime" is Kim Jong Un. Remember when he took over from his father and he had to execute all those generals with mortars and anti-aircraft guns? That was because of a power struggle. All it takes for it all to topple is for one general to decide that he is a better choice than whoever Kim Jong Un has decided to inherit his job.

We don't really hear much about it in the west, but there are reports of insurrection in North Korea with the odd roadside bombings every now and then. Not from freedom-lusting civilians, but from power-hungry officers.
 
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Dutchy
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Re: Kim Jong-Un dying?

Tue Apr 21, 2020 8:17 am

VSMUT wrote:
Dutchy wrote:
But it will not be leaderless, the regime will maintain itself and put in a successor. So, in the end, it doesn't matter if Kim Jong-Un dies or not. Nothing will change in North Korea as such.


The "regime" is Kim Jong Un. Remember when he took over from his father and he had to execute all those generals with mortars and anti-aircraft guns? That was because of a power struggle. All it takes for it all to topple is for one general to decide that he is a better choice than whoever Kim Jong Un has decided to inherit his job.

We don't really hear much about it in the west, but there are reports of insurrection in North Korea with the odd roadside bombings every now and then. Not from freedom-lusting civilians, but from power-hungry officers.


And if such a power-hungry general took over, would it change much for the North Koreans or for the policies of North Korea in general? My guess it would not change much and in essence, the regime will still be there just with another figure at the top.
Many happy landings, greetings from The Netherlands!
 
ltbewr
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Re: Kim Jong-Un dying?

Tue Apr 21, 2020 8:29 am

I wonder if 'the Dear Leader' may just be in isolation to protect him from getting infected with Covid-19.
 
VSMUT
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Re: Kim Jong-Un dying?

Tue Apr 21, 2020 10:43 am

Dutchy wrote:
VSMUT wrote:
Dutchy wrote:
But it will not be leaderless, the regime will maintain itself and put in a successor. So, in the end, it doesn't matter if Kim Jong-Un dies or not. Nothing will change in North Korea as such.


The "regime" is Kim Jong Un. Remember when he took over from his father and he had to execute all those generals with mortars and anti-aircraft guns? That was because of a power struggle. All it takes for it all to topple is for one general to decide that he is a better choice than whoever Kim Jong Un has decided to inherit his job.

We don't really hear much about it in the west, but there are reports of insurrection in North Korea with the odd roadside bombings every now and then. Not from freedom-lusting civilians, but from power-hungry officers.


And if such a power-hungry general took over, would it change much for the North Koreans or for the policies of North Korea in general? My guess it would not change much and in essence, the regime will still be there just with another figure at the top.


It isn't what they will or won't do to the North Korean population. It is what a bunch of feuding, rabidly anti-US/Japanese/South Korean warlords with access to chemical, nuclear and biological weapons would do.

You seem to be under the mistaken assumption that a power-struggle is something that is "just" resolved. It took Kim Jong Un several years to root out opposition at higher levels of the elite, and that was as a direct heir to the previous two leaders.
 
Sokes
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Re: Kim Jong-Un dying?

Tue Apr 21, 2020 1:27 pm

I don't know if the regime is as evil as our media suggest. Are women there allowed to drive cars?
Assuming it is evil: why is it assumed that the next generation of leaders would be as evil?
Was Khrushchev as evil as Stalin?
Was Deng Xiaoping as evil as Mao?
Why can't the world be a little bit more autistic?
 
NIKV69
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Re: Kim Jong-Un dying?

Tue Apr 21, 2020 1:37 pm

ltbewr wrote:
I wonder if 'the Dear Leader' may just be in isolation to protect him from getting infected with Covid-19.


Very good chance this is what is happening.
I am the Googlizer!!!
 
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einsteinboricua
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Re: Kim Jong-Un dying?

Tue Apr 21, 2020 2:03 pm

Sokes wrote:
I don't know if the regime is as evil as our media suggest. Are women there allowed to drive cars?
Assuming it is evil: why is it assumed that the next generation of leaders would be as evil?
Was Khrushchev as evil as Stalin?
Was Deng Xiaoping as evil as Mao?

You should drop by and tell us how it all is. Take pictures.
"You haven't seen a tree until you've seen its shadow from the sky."
 
dtw2hyd
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Re: Kim Jong-Un dying?

Tue Apr 21, 2020 3:06 pm

einsteinboricua wrote:
You should drop by and tell us how it all is. Take pictures.


I think they behave differently with a western tour group than say with Chinese. There is an 34 part YouTube vlog by a Chinese tour group. You will see they are like any other people, of course they know their act to praise the leader at every opportunity, but it is very clear they are putting up the regime's show for outsiders. But when they let their guard down you will notice they are normal people. You can also see the rural and other parts of DPRK.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aZZOE_V1LEY
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winginit
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Re: Kim Jong-Un dying?

Tue Apr 21, 2020 5:22 pm

TTailedTiger wrote:
So why hasn't anyone seen or heard from him?


Is that... are you serious?

I mean of course! Why hasn't anyone seen or heard from Kim Jong-Un? So weird that the North Koreans haven't uploaded pics of him on twitter with their smartphones or that insiders haven't leaked his whereabouts to the super free and capable North Korean press or paparazzi! Weird right?! You should catch the next flight to Pyongyang and get to the bottom of that.

Honestly...

Dutchy wrote:
VSMUT wrote:
Dutchy wrote:
But it will not be leaderless, the regime will maintain itself and put in a successor. So, in the end, it doesn't matter if Kim Jong-Un dies or not. Nothing will change in North Korea as such.


The "regime" is Kim Jong Un. Remember when he took over from his father and he had to execute all those generals with mortars and anti-aircraft guns? That was because of a power struggle. All it takes for it all to topple is for one general to decide that he is a better choice than whoever Kim Jong Un has decided to inherit his job.

We don't really hear much about it in the west, but there are reports of insurrection in North Korea with the odd roadside bombings every now and then. Not from freedom-lusting civilians, but from power-hungry officers.


And if such a power-hungry general took over, would it change much for the North Koreans or for the policies of North Korea in general? My guess it would not change much and in essence, the regime will still be there just with another figure at the top.


I suspect you're right, and especially if Choe Ryong-hae does indeed take over, which is likely, it's not as though he's some previously neglected officer who is going to stir the pot to make an independent name for himself - he has little incentive to do so. He is literally family through marriage and his family's ties to Kim Jong-Un and his family go back decades.
 
Sokes
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Re: Kim Jong-Un dying?

Tue Apr 21, 2020 5:50 pm

einsteinboricua wrote:
Sokes wrote:
I don't know if the regime is as evil as our media suggest. Are women there allowed to drive cars?
Assuming it is evil: why is it assumed that the next generation of leaders would be as evil?
Was Khrushchev as evil as Stalin?
Was Deng Xiaoping as evil as Mao?

You should drop by and tell us how it all is. Take pictures.

That's an excellent idea. Before the US makes an invasion the regime in question should get a chance to allow US soldiers to freely travel and interact with locals to arrive at a judgement if regime change is necessary.
Why can't the world be a little bit more autistic?
 
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einsteinboricua
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Re: Kim Jong-Un dying?

Tue Apr 21, 2020 6:09 pm

Sokes wrote:
That's an excellent idea. Before the US makes an invasion the regime in question should get a chance to allow US soldiers to freely travel and interact with locals to arrive at a judgement if regime change is necessary.

Uh huh...inviting soldiers to "freely travel" the country. Not an invasion at all.

I meant you. Since you're so convinced that the North Korean government is all peace and love, please go visit for us. Chinese companies provide tours. Ask to stay for a few months and then return to us.

We'll be waiting at the Trip Report section for you to prove us wrong and invite us to experience the (totally) Democratic People's Republic of Korea.
"You haven't seen a tree until you've seen its shadow from the sky."
 
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Dutchy
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Re: Kim Jong-Un dying?

Tue Apr 21, 2020 6:27 pm

Sokes wrote:
einsteinboricua wrote:
Sokes wrote:
I don't know if the regime is as evil as our media suggest. Are women there allowed to drive cars?
Assuming it is evil: why is it assumed that the next generation of leaders would be as evil?
Was Khrushchev as evil as Stalin?
Was Deng Xiaoping as evil as Mao?

You should drop by and tell us how it all is. Take pictures.

That's an excellent idea. Before the US makes an invasion the regime in question should get a chance to allow US soldiers to freely travel and interact with locals to arrive at a judgement if regime change is necessary.


What are you talking about!?!??! The US isn't going to invade North-Korea and the North-Korean regime is one of the worst regimes in the world according to independent experts.

Your assertion is that the North Korean regime isn't as bad as a regime that doesn't allow women to drive cars, were are reacting to that.
Many happy landings, greetings from The Netherlands!
 
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einsteinboricua
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Re: Kim Jong-Un dying?

Tue Apr 21, 2020 6:32 pm

Dutchy wrote:
Your assertion is that the North Korean regime isn't as bad as a regime that doesn't allow women to drive cars, were are reacting to that.

Iran allows women to drive, so by his logic, Iran's regime isn't as bad either.
"You haven't seen a tree until you've seen its shadow from the sky."
 
seat64k
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Re: Kim Jong-Un dying?

Tue Apr 21, 2020 6:48 pm

I’ve just learned about his illness; let’s hope it’s nothing trivial.
 
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DocLightning
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Re: Kim Jong-Un dying?

Tue Apr 21, 2020 7:23 pm

Don't be so quick to wish for his death. Mr. Kim is the devil we know. Gen. Choe is not. It's not as if the DPRK is going to magically convert to democracy and reunite with the ROC if Mr. Kim dies.
-Doc Lightning-

"The sky calls to us. If we do not destroy ourselves, we will one day venture to the stars."
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einsteinboricua
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Re: Kim Jong-Un dying?

Tue Apr 21, 2020 7:33 pm

DocLightning wrote:
Don't be so quick to wish for his death. Mr. Kim is the devil we know. Gen. Choe is not. It's not as if the DPRK is going to magically convert to democracy and reunite with the ROC if Mr. Kim dies.

But we know that Kim Jong-Un won't allow it either.

We have nothing to LOSE (except The Game)
"You haven't seen a tree until you've seen its shadow from the sky."
 
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Dutchy
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Re: Kim Jong-Un dying?

Tue Apr 21, 2020 7:43 pm

einsteinboricua wrote:
Dutchy wrote:
Your assertion is that the North Korean regime isn't as bad as a regime that doesn't allow women to drive cars, were are reacting to that.

Iran allows women to drive, so by his logic, Iran's regime isn't as bad either.


Even Saudi Arabia is permitting women to drive.......
Many happy landings, greetings from The Netherlands!
 
NIKV69
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Re: Kim Jong-Un dying?

Tue Apr 21, 2020 8:10 pm

DocLightning wrote:
Don't be so quick to wish for his death. Mr. Kim is the devil we know. Gen. Choe is not. It's not as if the DPRK is going to magically convert to democracy and reunite with the ROC if Mr. Kim dies.


No but it's the closest those people may come to a revolution.
I am the Googlizer!!!
 
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DarkSnowyNight
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Re: Kim Jong-Un dying?

Tue Apr 21, 2020 8:52 pm

DocLightning wrote:
Don't be so quick to wish for his death. Mr. Kim is the devil we know. Gen. Choe is not. It's not as if the DPRK is going to magically convert to democracy and reunite with the ROC if Mr. Kim dies.



And here is another dirty little secret to add to that. No one in the region wants that to happen anyway. This is not Germany 1989.

The North Koreans would be a tremendous burden to the South. There are 26 million of them (to South Korea's 51.5), and the GDP is less than one percent of their neighbors to the south. It would mean —especially now— an almost certain demise of the Korean economy altogether. The possibility of the entire peninsula becoming a failed state as a result of only that is not remote.

As well, the DPRK would not be politically aligned with the rest of Korea. It would not so much be the difference between Americans and MAGAs as it would be the difference between Americans and Klingons. The distinctions are not just ideological, but downright structural. There are numerous other detail-oriented issues and permutations arising from these factors, but the takeaway is that on a domestic level, this is an almost fundamentally impossible task.
Even with the cultural, economic and linguistic differences involved, it is not an exaggeration on any level to say that it would be easier to merge Mexico & the US.

In the realm of international relations, things only get worse. China would be faced with a very real problem as well here. They would be dealt a double blow of losing an ally —even if it is of dubious value— while simultaneously dealing with literal hordes of incoming refugees.

The DPRK has served as a physical barrier, since the armistice, between the CCP & Western Allied East Asia. The sudden loss of that, with the likely concurrent loss of North Korea's Nuclear Assets —to a western power— would be devastating. And it would remove a lot of the economic and military security that prevents China from taking an outright bellicose stance WRT western relations.

And while a Reunification would see a lot of former North Koreans remain in place, or even relocate south, there would be at least millions flooding north. It is worthy of note that North Koreans do not have a remotely accurate picture of the world. To them, such events would appear to be nothing other than Armageddon, especially if it were to happen immediately after the loss of a Dear Leader.
There would be some resultant local violences, but for the most part, they would simply overwhelm their own northern border. How China handles that is literally anyone's guess, but it would be, at the very least, a humanitarian nightmare.

Lastly, a removal of the border at the 38th parallel obviates the need for a US presence. That may not seem like a big deal, but the idea —no matter appropriate— that the US would just up and leave, diminishing its influence while China increases theirs, is also outlandish. Our own behavior in that situation —especially with our current leadership deficits— is also not something that can be listed as a stabilizing factor.


The TDLR of this is that it really does not matter what that stack of pillows roughly disguised as a Dictator is replaced with. Things will very likely remain the same because literally nobody there wants a bite out of that sleeping Hornet's Nest...
"Nous ne sommes pas infectés. Il n'y a pas d'infection ici..."
 
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Dutchy
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Re: Kim Jong-Un dying?

Tue Apr 21, 2020 9:19 pm

DarkSnowyNight wrote:
DocLightning wrote:
Don't be so quick to wish for his death. Mr. Kim is the devil we know. Gen. Choe is not. It's not as if the DPRK is going to magically convert to democracy and reunite with the ROC if Mr. Kim dies.



And here is another dirty little secret to add to that. No one in the region wants that to happen anyway. This is not Germany 1989.

The North Koreans would be a tremendous burden to the South. There are 26 million of them (to South Korea's 51.5), and the GDP is less than one percent of their neighbors to the south. It would mean —especially now— an almost certain demise of the Korean economy altogether. The possibility of the entire peninsula becoming a failed state as a result of only that is not remote.

As well, the DPRK would not be politically aligned with the rest of Korea. It would not so much be the difference between Americans and MAGAs as it would be the difference between Americans and Klingons. The distinctions are not just ideological, but downright structural. There are numerous other detail-oriented issues and permutations arising from these factors, but the takeaway is that on a domestic level, this is an almost fundamentally impossible task.
Even with the cultural, economic and linguistic differences involved, it is not an exaggeration on any level to say that it would be easier to merge Mexico & the US.

In the realm of international relations, things only get worse. China would be faced with a very real problem as well here. They would be dealt a double blow of losing an ally —even if it is of dubious value— while simultaneously dealing with literal hordes of incoming refugees.

The DPRK has served as a physical barrier, since the armistice, between the CCP & Western Allied East Asia. The sudden loss of that, with the likely concurrent loss of North Korea's Nuclear Assets —to a western power— would be devastating. And it would remove a lot of the economic and military security that prevents China from taking an outright bellicose stance WRT western relations.

And while a Reunification would see a lot of former North Koreans remain in place, or even relocate south, there would be at least millions flooding north. It is worthy of note that North Koreans do not have a remotely accurate picture of the world. To them, such events would appear to be nothing other than Armageddon, especially if it were to happen immediately after the loss of a Dear Leader.
There would be some resultant local violences, but for the most part, they would simply overwhelm their own northern border. How China handles that is literally anyone's guess, but it would be, at the very least, a humanitarian nightmare.

Lastly, a removal of the border at the 38th parallel obviates the need for a US presence. That may not seem like a big deal, but the idea —no matter appropriate— that the US would just up and leave, diminishing its influence while China increases theirs, is also outlandish. Our own behavior in that situation —especially with our current leadership deficits— is also not something that can be listed as a stabilizing factor.


The TDLR of this is that it really does not matter what that stack of pillows roughly disguised as a Dictator is replaced with. Things will very likely remain the same because literally nobody there wants a bite out of that sleeping Hornet's Nest...


Perhaps for some politicians in the South it is indeed a nightmare when North Korea regime falls. For China, yes they want a buffer zone between China and the west. But in the South there must be a playbook ready when the regime falls and how to reunite Korea. Sooner or later the North will open up, one way or another. North Koreans will indeed be at a loss, North Korea needs to be built, rebuild is giving to much credit to the current situation, North Koreans need to be given a view of the world which is more in line with the truth, not unlike what happened to the German population after WWII. In any case, it will take decennia before North Korea will be at the same level as the South. Just look at the reunification of German in 1990, 30 years ago, despite all the help, eastern Germany is still much poorer than the west and there are still cultural differences. And eastern and western Germany were much more alike then North and South Korea. So I would be interested in what scenario's the. South is thinking to reunify, eventhough it will probably not happen for 50 or more years.
Many happy landings, greetings from The Netherlands!
 
zakuivcustom
Posts: 3508
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Re: Kim Jong-Un dying?

Tue Apr 21, 2020 9:30 pm

DarkSnowyNight wrote:
DocLightning wrote:
Don't be so quick to wish for his death. Mr. Kim is the devil we know. Gen. Choe is not. It's not as if the DPRK is going to magically convert to democracy and reunite with the ROC if Mr. Kim dies.



And here is another dirty little secret to add to that. No one in the region wants that to happen anyway. This is not Germany 1989.

The North Koreans would be a tremendous burden to the South. There are 26 million of them (to South Korea's 51.5), and the GDP is less than one percent of their neighbors to the south. It would mean —especially now— an almost certain demise of the Korean economy altogether. The possibility of the entire peninsula becoming a failed state as a result of only that is not remote.

As well, the DPRK would not be politically aligned with the rest of Korea. It would not so much be the difference between Americans and MAGAs as it would be the difference between Americans and Klingons. The distinctions are not just ideological, but downright structural. There are numerous other detail-oriented issues and permutations arising from these factors, but the takeaway is that on a domestic level, this is an almost fundamentally impossible task.
Even with the cultural, economic and linguistic differences involved, it is not an exaggeration on any level to say that it would be easier to merge Mexico & the US.

In the realm of international relations, things only get worse. China would be faced with a very real problem as well here. They would be dealt a double blow of losing an ally —even if it is of dubious value— while simultaneously dealing with literal hordes of incoming refugees.

The DPRK has served as a physical barrier, since the armistice, between the CCP & Western Allied East Asia. The sudden loss of that, with the likely concurrent loss of North Korea's Nuclear Assets —to a western power— would be devastating. And it would remove a lot of the economic and military security that prevents China from taking an outright bellicose stance WRT western relations.

And while a Reunification would see a lot of former North Koreans remain in place, or even relocate south, there would be at least millions flooding north. It is worthy of note that North Koreans do not have a remotely accurate picture of the world. To them, such events would appear to be nothing other than Armageddon, especially if it were to happen immediately after the loss of a Dear Leader.
There would be some resultant local violences, but for the most part, they would simply overwhelm their own northern border. How China handles that is literally anyone's guess, but it would be, at the very least, a humanitarian nightmare.

Lastly, a removal of the border at the 38th parallel obviates the need for a US presence. That may not seem like a big deal, but the idea —no matter appropriate— that the US would just up and leave, diminishing its influence while China increases theirs, is also outlandish. Our own behavior in that situation —especially with our current leadership deficits— is also not something that can be listed as a stabilizing factor.


The TDLR of this is that it really does not matter what that stack of pillows roughly disguised as a Dictator is replaced with. Things will very likely remain the same because literally nobody there wants a bite out of that sleeping Hornet's Nest...


Adding on, the only hope for most people is for DPRK to open the country up and reform, alas China and Vietnam. Even that would require a huge structural change.

As for Fatty Kim - if he really die, there would definitely be a struggle between Gen. Choe and Kim little sis. Perhaps Choe Song (Gen. Choe's 2nd son), who is marry to Kim Yo Jong, takes over?
 
winginit
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Re: Kim Jong-Un dying?

Tue Apr 21, 2020 9:45 pm

zakuivcustom wrote:
As for Fatty Kim - if he really die, there would definitely be a struggle between Gen. Choe and Kim little sis.


Gen. Choe's son is married to Kim's sister Kim Yo-jong, and I suspect that was partially arranged to avoid that exact power struggle between Father-in-law and Daughter-in-law.
 
rfields5421
Posts: 6266
Joined: Thu Jul 19, 2007 12:45 am

Re: Kim Jong-Un dying?

Tue Apr 21, 2020 11:38 pm

einsteinboricua wrote:
We have nothing to LOSE (except The Game)


I strongly disagree.

My experience and limited study of history tell me that it can always get worse than anyone could imagine if the right idiot gets in power.
Not all who wander are lost.
 
Sokes
Posts: 1308
Joined: Sat Mar 09, 2019 4:48 pm

Re: Kim Jong-Un dying?

Wed Apr 22, 2020 3:49 pm

DarkSnowyNight wrote:
The North Koreans would be a tremendous burden to the South. There are 26 million of them (to South Korea's 51.5), and the GDP is less than one percent of their neighbors to the south. It would mean —especially now— an almost certain demise of the Korean economy altogether. The possibility of the entire peninsula becoming a failed state as a result of only that is not remote.


While I mostly agree with the rest of your post, I doubt that. It would mean GDP/ head in the North is just 2% of the South.
There are basic needs like food, clothing and housing everybody needs. I agree there are wide ranges in comfort and food quality. But I can't imagine any country produces 50 times it's most basic needs.

You should have traveled through East Germany fifteen years after reunification. The quality of infrastructure was mind blowing.
People in industrial countries don't have any idea which potential of wealth creation they have as so much wealth is wasted on luxury cars and other not really necessary consumption.
People can do themselves a favor and vote for politicians who want to increase their tax to improve infrastructure.
Why can't the world be a little bit more autistic?
 
L410Turbolet
Posts: 6224
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Re: Kim Jong-Un dying?

Wed Apr 22, 2020 8:09 pm

Sokes wrote:
I don't know if the regime is as evil as our media suggest. Are women there allowed to drive cars?
Assuming it is evil: why is it assumed that the next generation of leaders would be as evil?
Was Khrushchev as evil as Stalin?
Was Deng Xiaoping as evil as Mao?


Would Dönitz be less evil than Hitler? Seriously, what a weird set of questions.
 
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DarkSnowyNight
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Re: Kim Jong-Un dying?

Thu Apr 23, 2020 11:02 am

Sokes wrote:
DarkSnowyNight wrote:
The North Koreans would be a tremendous burden to the South. There are 26 million of them (to South Korea's 51.5), and the GDP is less than one percent of their neighbors to the south. It would mean —especially now— an almost certain demise of the Korean economy altogether. The possibility of the entire peninsula becoming a failed state as a result of only that is not remote.


While I mostly agree with the rest of your post, I doubt that. It would mean GDP/ head in the North is just 2% of the South.
There are basic needs like food, clothing and housing everybody needs. I agree there are wide ranges in comfort and food quality. But I can't imagine any country produces 50 times it's most basic needs.


That is what the numbers show. My guess would be that the actual cost of delivery on items in NK are so far cheaper —likely owing to things like a closed, controlled marketplace— than South Korea that a true comparison is likely worthless. In any case, yes I would feel that such would make for all the greater a disparity.




Sokes wrote:
You should have traveled through East Germany fifteen years after reunification. The quality of infrastructure was mind blowing.
People in industrial countries don't have any idea which potential of wealth creation they have as so much wealth is wasted on luxury cars and other not really necessary consumption.
People can do themselves a favor and vote for politicians who want to increase their tax to improve infrastructure.


I actually have. No argument there.
"Nous ne sommes pas infectés. Il n'y a pas d'infection ici..."
 
GDB
Posts: 13679
Joined: Wed May 23, 2001 6:25 pm

Re: Kim Jong-Un dying?

Thu Apr 23, 2020 1:07 pm

Kim Jong-Un, lets' see, overweight to the point of being obese, heavy drinker, chain smoker, little or no exercise. It might not be Covid that get's him eventually but if he does get it........
 
PlymSpotter
Posts: 10711
Joined: Thu Jun 17, 2004 7:32 am

Re: Kim Jong-Un dying?

Thu Apr 23, 2020 3:12 pm

Major surgery just days before a key date in the DPRK - doesn't sound plausible or routine to me.

I have to wonder if it's cover for him catching something like Covid-19. He must be in the ultra high risk category with his lifestyle.
...love is just a camouflage for what resembles rage again...
 
ltbewr
Posts: 15124
Joined: Thu Jan 29, 2004 1:24 pm

Re: Kim Jong-Un dying?

Thu Apr 23, 2020 3:21 pm

I wonder if this is just bad rumors or gossip to distract from the COVID-19 pandemic or just wishful thinking from the only sign of anything wrong with 'the dear leader' is not making an expected big public annual appearance last week.
 
GDB
Posts: 13679
Joined: Wed May 23, 2001 6:25 pm

Re: Kim Jong-Un dying?

Thu Apr 23, 2020 4:25 pm

Another factor inside that secretive state, with the virus.
The DPRK will not have fully recovered from the major famines of the 1990's, a generation grew up stunted and probably with weakened immune systems along with other negative health effects.
(Check the height of the DRPK guards - the best of the bunch considering that little part is exposed to the world, compared to their ROK counterparts).
 
zakuivcustom
Posts: 3508
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Re: Kim Jong-Un dying?

Sat Apr 25, 2020 2:56 am

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-nort ... SKCN2263DW

And latest report said China sent a medical team to NK.

Just another twist in the saga.

Still waiting for Supreme Leader Kim Yo-jong, just so NK can have a female leader before US does. :duck:
 
FGITD
Posts: 874
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Re: Kim Jong-Un dying?

Sat Apr 25, 2020 6:28 am

If it’s true I wonder how many days of national mourning Trump will call for.
 
tu204
Posts: 2169
Joined: Wed Mar 08, 2006 12:36 am

Re: Kim Jong-Un dying?

Sat Apr 25, 2020 6:48 am

Not going to comment on whether it's true or not, but on the reactions of rather nearsighted comments of people on this thread.

Why do so many people wanna see this guy dead?!?

There is absolutely no information pointing to any "democratic freedom loving opposition" inside DPRK that will come to power. Quite the opposite, likely a power struggle with individuals far worse than Kim. Struggling for power in a country with a huge standing army, chemical weapons, a nuclear program. While Kim is/was predictable and willing to come to the table to negotiate.

I'll assume moat those post came out of the U.S./western Europe, and I get that DPRK's missiles don't quite have the range (yet), but there are a couple billion people living in areas that do and aren't so quick in making such shortsighted comments.
I do not dream about movie stars, they must dream about me for I am real and they are not. - Alexander Popov
 
TTailedTiger
Posts: 2379
Joined: Sun Aug 26, 2018 5:19 am

Re: Kim Jong-Un dying?

Sat Apr 25, 2020 6:50 am

tu204 wrote:
Not going to comment on whether it's true or not, but on the reactions of rather nearsighted comments of people on this thread.

Why do so many people wanna see this guy dead?!?

There is absolutely no information pointing to any "democratic freedom loving opposition" inside DPRK that will come to power. Quite the opposite, likely a power struggle with individuals far worse than Kim. Struggling for power in a country with a huge standing army, chemical weapons, a nuclear program. While Kim is/was predictable and willing to come to the table to negotiate.

I'll assume moat those post came out of the U.S./western Europe, and I get that DPRK's missiles don't quite have the range (yet), but there are a couple billion people living in areas that do and aren't so quick in making such shortsighted comments.


Agreed. Nothing will ever change in that country.
 
PPVRA
Posts: 8489
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Re: Kim Jong-Un dying?

Sat Apr 25, 2020 12:38 pm

rfields5421 wrote:
Well, we know that it cannot certainly be COVID-19.

Yeah, right. Anyone want to buy a slightly used bridge in Brooklyn?


I’m sure the cause will be “working too hard” just like his father.
"If goods do not cross borders, soldiers will" - Frederic Bastiat
 
GDB
Posts: 13679
Joined: Wed May 23, 2001 6:25 pm

Re: Kim Jong-Un dying?

Sat Apr 25, 2020 1:12 pm

TTailedTiger wrote:
tu204 wrote:
Not going to comment on whether it's true or not, but on the reactions of rather nearsighted comments of people on this thread.

Why do so many people wanna see this guy dead?!?

There is absolutely no information pointing to any "democratic freedom loving opposition" inside DPRK that will come to power. Quite the opposite, likely a power struggle with individuals far worse than Kim. Struggling for power in a country with a huge standing army, chemical weapons, a nuclear program. While Kim is/was predictable and willing to come to the table to negotiate.

I'll assume moat those post came out of the U.S./western Europe, and I get that DPRK's missiles don't quite have the range (yet), but there are a couple billion people living in areas that do and aren't so quick in making such shortsighted comments.


Agreed. Nothing will ever change in that country.


I understand why many think that, however history suggests otherwise.
In the mid to late 80's no one thought by the end of the decade the Berlin Wall would be down, the Warsaw Pact would be fragmenting and the USSR would not long after cease to exist.
Indeed, it's often asked 'why did not Western Intelligence see it coming?'
MI6 had for years an asset in the KGB, (until CIA traitor Ames exposed him and MI6 got him out via Finland), even if a Western intel agency had someone in the Politburo they would not have known either, since neither did they, (nor an ambitious young KGB zealot in East Germany named Putin, who did not even see the wall falling until it did).

That same year, in China, they responded to the protests with extreme brutality, (the protestors were also far more than a few hundred students), however they also responded by speeding up economic reforms, though not political ones. Since they had seen what happens when you start to allow that.

I have no idea how really robust the DRPK state is, frankly I bet those charged with trying to find out really do either.
It does suit the Chinese to have the DRPK in it's current form, despite how much they often irritate or anger them.
Who can say that won't change one day?
 
anshabhi
Posts: 2252
Joined: Thu Oct 20, 2016 10:40 am

Re: Kim Jong-Un dying?

Sat Apr 25, 2020 6:02 pm

Hong Kong and Japanese Media say Kim Jong Un is in a vegetative state (virtually dead):

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/kim-j ... latestnews
 
aerosreenivas
Posts: 147
Joined: Sun Nov 18, 2007 6:40 pm

Re: Kim Jong-Un dying?

Sat Apr 25, 2020 6:22 pm

I'm reading a few confirmed news that Kim Jong Un is already dead. Is anyone else getting the same info here?

This is the source:

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/articl ... state.html

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