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acavpics
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COVID-19 Vaccine News and Discussion Thread

Tue Apr 21, 2020 1:28 pm

Scientists at Oxford Univ. who are researching a coronavirus vaccine have claimed that this is a possibility. A stark deviation from the "12-18 months" timeline. UK government has stated that there are no guarantees, though. Some links provided below:

https://www.bbc.com/news/health-52329659

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... tion-plans

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/h ... 71966.html

Is this a valid possibility?
Last edited by SQ22 on Fri Apr 24, 2020 6:49 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: "COVID-19 vaccine could be ready for mass production as early as September."

Tue Apr 21, 2020 1:34 pm

Let us hope this is the case.
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Re: "COVID-19 vaccine could be ready for mass production as early as September."

Tue Apr 21, 2020 1:36 pm

Hats off to these researchers working around the clock on something painstakingly detail-oriented.
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Re: "COVID-19 vaccine could be ready for mass production as early as September."

Tue Apr 21, 2020 1:36 pm

I wouldn't be enormously surprised.

I know nothing about how vaccinations are made, but I'm guessing more resources, researchers, tests, etc are being devoted to this vaccine than any other in history. So while it will still take awhile, I would think the work would move along quicker than usual.

Even if the vaccine is a holdover for another, more effective vaccine or treatment, anything is better than what we have now
 
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Re: "COVID-19 vaccine could be ready for mass production as early as September."

Tue Apr 21, 2020 1:43 pm

A vaccine could be ready, but will it be effective? That is the interesting question.
I would imagine it will be better than nothing, but most of the issues are going to come down to which level of testing they can get through the quickest. Luckily there are lots of candidates for testing these vaccines.
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Re: "COVID-19 vaccine could be ready for mass production as early as September."

Tue Apr 21, 2020 2:05 pm

acavpics wrote:
Is this a valid possibility?

I can see how it could be.
Number one you have labs worldwide coordinating and cooperating together on a scale seldom seen, which can speed up testing of variants and the process over all occurs on 24 hours basis.
Number two, coming with that is just more, more people, more time, more funding and resources and capability.

Now will it succeed? :crossfingers:

Tugg
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Re: "COVID-19 vaccine could be ready for mass production as early as September."

Tue Apr 21, 2020 2:43 pm

The sad fact is that a vaccine used every year has a fatality rate that is measured but it is still used even though we have had years to research and proof it, we have just accepted that X% percent will have adverse reactions and some may die, flu vaccine given each year heading into the winter season.

Now with COVID-19, some have already started human trials bypassing all the time protocols previously in place due to the massive nature of this pandemic, time is not on our side to analyse all potential side effects. The drugs being tried now developed for other ailments have a line of research for their initial purpose, so some knowledge is available of the effects on the human body.

If a vaccine is produced in the next few months, let's see where wide spread deployment is done, how they are monitored and how much information is made available. Due to the lock down procedures put in place, countries all over the world have the 3 types required, uninfected, infected with no symptoms and fully sick.
 
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Re: "COVID-19 vaccine could be ready for mass production as early as September."

Tue Apr 21, 2020 3:04 pm

Hopefully, this is the case and we can mass produce it as soon as possible. There are 70 groups around the globe working on a vaccine, 4 of them are having human trails already.
Of course, we need to make sure it is safe to use and effective. If they manage it by September it would be great, I am sceptical, though, if this timeframe is doable. I thought the soonest possibility would be around December / January mark, but I desperately want to be pleasantly surprised. So go Oxford.
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Re: "COVID-19 vaccine could be ready for mass production as early as September."

Tue Apr 21, 2020 3:06 pm

par13del wrote:

If a vaccine is produced in the next few months, let's see where wide spread deployment is done, how they are monitored and how much information is made available. Due to the lock down procedures put in place, countries all over the world have the 3 types required, uninfected, infected with no symptoms and fully sick.


Once the trials are successful, results are approved, the chemical identity, and the manufacturing process for the vaccine are outlined, would you expect production to quickly start in countries all over the world? Or do you think only one or a few would be responsible for producing them and shipping them to the rest of the world?
 
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Re: "COVID-19 vaccine could be ready for mass production as early as September."

Tue Apr 21, 2020 3:25 pm

Are conservatives still pushing chloroquine? They seem to have gotten quiet.
par13del wrote:
The sad fact is that a vaccine used every year has a fatality rate that is measured but it is still used even though we have had years to research and proof it, we have just accepted that X% percent will have adverse reactions and some may die, flu vaccine given each year heading into the winter season.

That % is infinitesimal compared to the deaths it prevents, never mind the official republican position now is we need to open the economy even if it kills hundreds of thousands of people :roll:
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Re: "COVID-19 vaccine could be ready for mass production as early as September."

Tue Apr 21, 2020 3:51 pm

casinterest wrote:
A vaccine could be ready, but will it be effective? That is the interesting question.
I would imagine it will be better than nothing, but most of the issues are going to come down to which level of testing they can get through the quickest. Luckily there are lots of candidates for testing these vaccines.

I read a report saying there's a real risk that an untested anti-virus could end up accidentally strengthening the virus and thus accelerate its growth!

Something to do with the structure of coronavirus, etc.

Then of course there is the problem of producing enough of it.

The industry in the US is now set up for producing around 4 million doses a year spread out across the year for childhood vaccines,

It's a very different thing to want to produce 300M vaccines as fast as possible.

I know everyone wants a path out of this mess, but some things just take time, and some things that seem positive end up being negative.

I'm afraid people will hear a bit of positive news and decide it's time to end their quarantine, without understanding what is actually being said.
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Re: "COVID-19 vaccine could be ready for mass production as early as September."

Tue Apr 21, 2020 3:59 pm

Revelation wrote:
casinterest wrote:
A vaccine could be ready, but will it be effective? That is the interesting question.
I would imagine it will be better than nothing, but most of the issues are going to come down to which level of testing they can get through the quickest. Luckily there are lots of candidates for testing these vaccines.

I read a report saying there's a real risk that an untested anti-virus could end up accidentally strengthening the virus and thus accelerate its growth!

Something to do with the structure of coronavirus, etc.

Then of course there is the problem of producing enough of it.

The industry in the US is now set up for producing around 4 million doses a year spread out across the year for childhood vaccines,

It's a very different thing to want to produce 300M vaccines as fast as possible.

I know everyone wants a path out of this mess, but some things just take time, and some things that seem positive end up being negative.

I'm afraid people will hear a bit of positive news and decide it's time to end their quarantine, without understanding what is actually being said.


Well fortunately, the lack of testing shouldn't be an issue here, as they have already secured 500+ participants and plan to have about 5,000 people in their final stage trial. And yes, I agree that IF this does come out in September as the researchers are hoping, not everyone will get it immediately. First, it would probably go to those who are more at risk such as the elderly, disabled, or those with immune deficiencies. But I read somewhere that they are hopeful that by October or November, more of the general population should have access to it, just in time for the December holiday season.
 
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Re: "COVID-19 vaccine could be ready for mass production as early as September."

Tue Apr 21, 2020 4:04 pm

They're talking about having 1 million doses in September. Not really going to make a dent. But if it works, then it can be mass produced, and we can expect vulnerable people to get the vaccine by the end of the year.
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Re: "COVID-19 vaccine could be ready for mass production as early as September."

Tue Apr 21, 2020 4:05 pm

acavpics wrote:
Revelation wrote:
casinterest wrote:
A vaccine could be ready, but will it be effective? That is the interesting question.
I would imagine it will be better than nothing, but most of the issues are going to come down to which level of testing they can get through the quickest. Luckily there are lots of candidates for testing these vaccines.

I read a report saying there's a real risk that an untested anti-virus could end up accidentally strengthening the virus and thus accelerate its growth!

Something to do with the structure of coronavirus, etc.

Then of course there is the problem of producing enough of it.

The industry in the US is now set up for producing around 4 million doses a year spread out across the year for childhood vaccines,

It's a very different thing to want to produce 300M vaccines as fast as possible.

I know everyone wants a path out of this mess, but some things just take time, and some things that seem positive end up being negative.

I'm afraid people will hear a bit of positive news and decide it's time to end their quarantine, without understanding what is actually being said.


Well fortunately, the lack of testing shouldn't be an issue here, as they have already secured 500+ participants and plan to have about 5,000 people in their final stage trial. And yes, I agree that IF this does come out in September as the researchers are hoping, not everyone will get it immediately. First, it would probably go to those who are more at risk such as the elderly, disabled, or those with immune deficiencies. But I read somewhere that they are hopeful that by October or November, more of the general population should have access to it, just in time for the December holiday season.



I think the pharmaceutical companies would be mass producing at the first sign of approval. And as said the at risk population gets it first.

12-18 months for a regular flu vaccine, and 8-9 months for this one seems quick, but vaccine development is rapid. It is the testing that is a pain.
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Re: "COVID-19 vaccine could be ready for mass production as early as September."

Tue Apr 21, 2020 4:14 pm

Bill Gates say that the top seven or so vaccine possibilities should be moved to mass production early on in the testing. With some luck at least one of them will work.
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Re: "COVID-19 vaccine could be ready for mass production as early as September."

Tue Apr 21, 2020 4:17 pm

frmrCapCadet wrote:
Bill Gates say that the top seven or so vaccine possibilities should be moved to mass production early on in the testing. With some luck at least one of them will work.


It is an interesting thought. Mass produce the highest candidates, and then trash the non working ones. Would be a good way to get a stockpile going.

Of course then you run the issue that some low level worker messes up and ships the wrong containers :)
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Re: "COVID-19 vaccine could be ready for mass production as early as September."

Tue Apr 21, 2020 4:31 pm

MaverickM11 wrote:
Are conservatives still pushing chloroquine? They seem to have gotten quiet.

I'm more interested in seeing how the antivaxxer crowd is staying silent with this pandemic on the landscape. Haven't heard anything from them along the lines of demanding a stop to vaccine development or to catch the virus and form natural immunity.
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Re: "COVID-19 vaccine could be ready for mass production as early as September."

Tue Apr 21, 2020 5:04 pm

einsteinboricua wrote:
MaverickM11 wrote:
Are conservatives still pushing chloroquine? They seem to have gotten quiet.

I'm more interested in seeing how the antivaxxer crowd is staying silent with this pandemic on the landscape. Haven't heard anything from them along the lines of demanding a stop to vaccine development or to catch the virus and form natural immunity.


It's hardly surprising because logic and reasoning aren't their strong points.
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Re: "COVID-19 vaccine could be ready for mass production as early as September."

Tue Apr 21, 2020 5:10 pm

einsteinboricua wrote:
I'm more interested in seeing how the antivaxxer crowd is staying silent with this pandemic on the landscape. Haven't heard anything from them along the lines of demanding a stop to vaccine development or to catch the virus and form natural immunity.

Well they are not so hard to find, are they?
par13del wrote:
The sad fact is that a vaccine used every year has a fatality rate that is measured but it is still used even though we have had years to research and proof it, we have just accepted that X% percent will have adverse reactions and some may die, flu vaccine given each year heading into the winter season.

Now with COVID-19, some have already started human trials bypassing all the time protocols previously in place due to the massive nature of this pandemic, time is not on our side to analyse all potential side effects. The drugs being tried now developed for other ailments have a line of research for their initial purpose, so some knowledge is available of the effects on the human body.

If a vaccine is produced in the next few months, let's see where wide spread deployment is done, how they are monitored and how much information is made available. Due to the lock down procedures put in place, countries all over the world have the 3 types required, uninfected, infected with no symptoms and fully sick.
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Re: "COVID-19 vaccine could be ready for mass production as early as September."

Tue Apr 21, 2020 5:18 pm

einsteinboricua wrote:
MaverickM11 wrote:
Are conservatives still pushing chloroquine? They seem to have gotten quiet.

I'm more interested in seeing how the antivaxxer crowd is staying silent with this pandemic on the landscape. Haven't heard anything from them along the lines of demanding a stop to vaccine development or to catch the virus and form natural immunity.

Maybe they're quiet for now because they're so focused on 5G? :rotfl:
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Re: "COVID-19 vaccine could be ready for mass production as early as September."

Tue Apr 21, 2020 5:20 pm

MaverickM11 wrote:
Are conservatives still pushing chloroquine? They seem to have gotten quiet.:


Yes, and no.

It seems to be somewhat effective in minimizing some of the effects of the disease stage of virus. It was never suggested as preventing someone from catching the virus, even by the Orange in Chief. But of course many people thought so and tried it anyway. It also seems in some cases to help avoid descent into life threatening conditions.

The problem is use of it needs close monitoring of the patient, and the medical community simply does not have the people available now to do a realistic wide scale test of the impact of the medicine. Though somewhere in the world I hope someone is able to have already started such a study.

einsteinboricua wrote:
or to catch the virus and form natural immunity.


Saw two stories today about using blood/plasma of COVID-19 patients being tested or researched as a method to infect people with the virus to develop natural immunity. But there are also daily stories that many to most COVID-19 patients are catching the virus again. Researchers and doctors are not sure from what I read that the patients were really 'cured' or just became asymptomatic. But they do become capable of spreading the virus to new people even after being cured. It also appears that the 'second' infection is less severe than the first. Scary.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------

Vaccine

IMHO the reason I don't get excited about stories about vaccines is that to my knowledge I've yet to see anything that medical researchers have identified a way to tell exactly how many people have the virus. How far it has really spread. The pessimistic part of me believes that the light to moderate number of COVID-19 cases is massively undercounted. On a scale of 10X to 100X the current count.

In the US, I also believe the number of dead is significantly undercounted. I'm seeing some stories that the number of pneumonia deaths this spring is spiking to at least 5X of normal in many rural areas of the nation. Also flu deaths are more than twice historical rates/ rates for Nov/Dec/Jan. Many to most of these deaths were people never tested for COVID-19.

The good thing about COVID-19 vaccines is the number of different places rushing to create one, test one.

The big problem about vaccines in general is that IMHO they are 'owned' by one company or lab, or group of labs. There is little additional research for another, maybe safer, vaccine for most diseases. Less than best possible is accepted because no none else is trying to find an alternative in many cases. It is too expensive for little chance of a realistic reward.

A different approach to a vaccine by many different groups / labs/ companies is good in my view. But we are not going to get the BEST vaccine. We are going to end up with the first GOOD ENOUGH vaccine, because the money will be poured into production of that one, and the other research will dry up quickly.
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Re: "COVID-19 vaccine could be ready for mass production as early as September."

Tue Apr 21, 2020 5:25 pm

stl07 wrote:
einsteinboricua wrote:
I'm more interested in seeing how the antivaxxer crowd is staying silent with this pandemic on the landscape. Haven't heard anything from them along the lines of demanding a stop to vaccine development or to catch the virus and form natural immunity.

Well they are not so hard to find, are they?

In his defense, I would also be cautious if a vaccine is being rushed through. That's not necessarily being anti-vaxxer. When the H1N1 vaccine came out, I did not get in line to be vaccinated because I was concerned about too fast a development. Wanting to have some results to understand any potential side-effects and its efficacy is normal (and would be warranted). This is an instance where the cure cannot be more harmful than the disease itself.
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Re: "COVID-19 vaccine could be ready for mass production as early as September."

Tue Apr 21, 2020 5:36 pm

einsteinboricua wrote:
In his defense, I would also be cautious if a vaccine is being rushed through. That's not necessarily being anti-vaxxer. When the H1N1 vaccine came out, I did not get in line to be vaccinated because I was concerned about too fast a development. Wanting to have some results to understand any potential side-effects and its efficacy is normal (and would be warranted). This is an instance where the cure cannot be more harmful than the disease itself.


Hopefully the fact that 5,000+ are scheduled to be tested by the end of summer will help ease such worries.
 
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Re: "COVID-19 vaccine could be ready for mass production as early as September."

Tue Apr 21, 2020 5:46 pm

Revelation wrote:
Then of course there is the problem of producing enough of it.

The industry in the US is now set up for producing around 4 million doses a year spread out across the year for childhood vaccines,

It's a very different thing to want to produce 300M vaccines as fast as possible.

?? Not sure where you are getting your numbers but some where your math is way off. (It's either that or I am missing something so please let me know.)
Flu vaccine is produced by private manufacturers, so supply depends on manufacturers. Vaccine manufacturers have projected that they will supply as many as 162 million to 169 million doses of influenza vaccine for the 2019-2020 season.
Dec 2, 2019

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/prevent/keyfacts.htm

This is just US numbers, so we can absolutely create the needed doses of vaccine, especially with the expanded manufacturing engagement we are currently seeing. It will be more of a challenge, have its own issues due to the pressure of the situation overall and overwhelming attention from the public, but is can be done and with the needed safety and rigor in process, that is exactly what these companies live on.

The key thing is testing in addition to getting the vaccine to the populations that need it in a timely manner.

Tugg
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Re: "COVID-19 vaccine could be ready for mass production as early as September."

Tue Apr 21, 2020 5:51 pm

casinterest wrote:
A vaccine could be ready, but will it be effective? That is the interesting question.
I would imagine it will be better than nothing, but most of the issues are going to come down to which level of testing they can get through the quickest. Luckily there are lots of candidates for testing these vaccines.


I would think they would have to do two things, figure out how to grow the virus in a lab and weaken and kill it so it isn't a threat when administered.

They would also have to study immune responses to the patients who have been exposed and are now recovered to see how effective natural immunity is and how the body responds. If natural immunity is in fact limited then a vaccine will be as well. A solid treatment needs to be and probably will be developed first for those who need it. 80% of people recover naturally treating the symptoms is all we have right now.

I have read that this one could be a nasal spray and not a needle because of the fact that covid19 attacks the respiratory tract and does not enter the blood in all cases. The flu does enter the blood an attacks muscles and joints which is why you are achy when you get it.

einsteinboricua wrote:
MaverickM11 wrote:
Are conservatives still pushing chloroquine? They seem to have gotten quiet.

I'm more interested in seeing how the antivaxxer crowd is staying silent with this pandemic on the landscape. Haven't heard anything from them along the lines of demanding a stop to vaccine development or to catch the virus and form natural immunity.


The ones I know are doubling down big time. They are the tin-foil hatters of this pandemic and their conspiracies are along the lines of that this is Bill Gates's plan to microchip everybody with nanotechnology that they can control with 5G.

einsteinboricua wrote:
stl07 wrote:
einsteinboricua wrote:
I'm more interested in seeing how the antivaxxer crowd is staying silent with this pandemic on the landscape. Haven't heard anything from them along the lines of demanding a stop to vaccine development or to catch the virus and form natural immunity.

Well they are not so hard to find, are they?

In his defense, I would also be cautious if a vaccine is being rushed through. That's not necessarily being anti-vaxxer. When the H1N1 vaccine came out, I did not get in line to be vaccinated because I was concerned about too fast a development. Wanting to have some results to understand any potential side-effects and its efficacy is normal (and would be warranted). This is an instance where the cure cannot be more harmful than the disease itself.


I think H1N1 was quick because it was an influenza virus which they know how to produce and grow already and this strain is not essentially basically in the influenza club and probably will be administered in seasonal shots if it is predicted that H1N1 is going to be prominent in a given flu season.
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Re: "COVID-19 vaccine could be ready for mass production as early as September."

Tue Apr 21, 2020 6:24 pm

Tugger wrote:
Revelation wrote:
Then of course there is the problem of producing enough of it.

The industry in the US is now set up for producing around 4 million doses a year spread out across the year for childhood vaccines,

It's a very different thing to want to produce 300M vaccines as fast as possible.

?? Not sure where you are getting your numbers but some where your math is way off. (It's either that or I am missing something so please let me know.)

Source is a NYT journalist who has been "covering epidemics for close to two decades for The Times":

    Well, they say, look, a year or 18 months is really optimistic.

    The record for making a vaccine in this country is the mumps vaccine, which was made in back the '50s, and it took four years. We — now, things have set up in modern times. We actually have vaccine can — that part has sped up. You can make a vaccine candidate very quickly.

    You can't speed up the immune system. You still have to do the tests in people.


    And coronaviruses have problems. They have a tendency to create a thing call antibody-dependent enhancement when other vaccines have been made, which means the vaccine can actually make you more likely to get the disease, rather than less, which would be a disaster.

    So you have to test carefully against that. And then there's the production problem. Most vaccines are made in batches of five to 10 million doses, because we have about four million babies born in this country every year. But if we need a vaccine that every American has to take, that's either 300 million or 600 million doses, if you need two shots.

    So that's a whole different order of magnitude in vaccine production and getting the factories working to do that.

Ref: https://www.pbs.org/newshour/show/why-g ... -a-fantasy

So either there is some difference between producing a seasonal influenza vaccine and a coronavirus vaccine, or the journalist is wrong, or knows something we don't know.

He also said:

    Well, you know, basically, they say that the notion that we're all going to be out of this in two or three months, and that football stadiums are going to be open in the fall and we will be all out together, is a fantasy, that, right now, somewhere north of 300 million Americans are still uninfected and vulnerable to the virus.

    If we all go out again, things will look good for two or three weeks, and then suddenly the infections will begin to tick up, and then the emergency rooms will fill, and we will be back on our way towards two million dead, which we were when the lockdown started.

    So that can't happen.
    And we won't really get out of this until we have either a vaccine or a prophylactic pill that will let us out.
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Re: "COVID-19 vaccine could be ready for mass production as early as September."

Tue Apr 21, 2020 6:43 pm

Revelation wrote:
Tugger wrote:
Revelation wrote:
Then of course there is the problem of producing enough of it.

The industry in the US is now set up for producing around 4 million doses a year spread out across the year for childhood vaccines,

It's a very different thing to want to produce 300M vaccines as fast as possible.

?? Not sure where you are getting your numbers but some where your math is way off. (It's either that or I am missing something so please let me know.)

Source is a NYT journalist who has been "covering epidemics for close to two decades for The Times":

    Well, they say, look, a year or 18 months is really optimistic.

    The record for making a vaccine in this country is the mumps vaccine, which was made in back the '50s, and it took four years. We — now, things have set up in modern times. We actually have vaccine can — that part has sped up. You can make a vaccine candidate very quickly.

    You can't speed up the immune system. You still have to do the tests in people.


    And coronaviruses have problems. They have a tendency to create a thing call antibody-dependent enhancement when other vaccines have been made, which means the vaccine can actually make you more likely to get the disease, rather than less, which would be a disaster.

    So you have to test carefully against that. And then there's the production problem. Most vaccines are made in batches of five to 10 million doses, because we have about four million babies born in this country every year. But if we need a vaccine that every American has to take, that's either 300 million or 600 million doses, if you need two shots.

    So that's a whole different order of magnitude in vaccine production and getting the factories working to do that.

Ref: https://www.pbs.org/newshour/show/why-g ... -a-fantasy

So either there is some difference between producing a seasonal influenza vaccine and a coronavirus vaccine, or the journalist is wrong, or knows something we don't know.

He also said:

    Well, you know, basically, they say that the notion that we're all going to be out of this in two or three months, and that football stadiums are going to be open in the fall and we will be all out together, is a fantasy, that, right now, somewhere north of 300 million Americans are still uninfected and vulnerable to the virus.

    If we all go out again, things will look good for two or three weeks, and then suddenly the infections will begin to tick up, and then the emergency rooms will fill, and we will be back on our way towards two million dead, which we were when the lockdown started.

    So that can't happen.
    And we won't really get out of this until we have either a vaccine or a prophylactic pill that will let us out.

OK, I see it, we are mixing up the "babies born" number as if it is how many are made. They batches are 5-10M in scale alone.

Also not everyone would need one and not right off the bat. The first target would be high risk groups: Elderly, people with underlying conditions, etc. Then you focus on "hot spot" areas, then the general population. And with testing (yes testing will be and needs to be widely available) you can rule out those that already have some degree of protection and also those groups that are at very low risk. And of course on top of that you will have idiots that will avoid a vaccine at all costs.

There is no way you can ever remove all risk to all people for any disease. It has never been possible and we won't suddenly do it now with a COVID19 vaccine.

Tugg
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marcelh
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Re: "COVID-19 vaccine could be ready for mass production as early as September."

Tue Apr 21, 2020 7:36 pm

Revelation wrote:
He also said:

    Well, you know, basically, they say that the notion that we're all going to be out of this in two or three months, and that football stadiums are going to be open in the fall and we will be all out together, is a fantasy, that, right now, somewhere north of 300 million Americans are still uninfected and vulnerable to the virus.

    If we all go out again, things will look good for two or three weeks, and then suddenly the infections will begin to tick up, and then the emergency rooms will fill, and we will be back on our way towards two million dead, which we were when the lockdown started.

    So that can't happen.
    And we won't really get out of this until we have either a vaccine or a prophylactic pill that will let us out.


Someone with a realistic view, unfortunately
 
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Re: "COVID-19 vaccine could be ready for mass production as early as September."

Tue Apr 21, 2020 8:23 pm

StarAC17 wrote:
I think H1N1 was quick because it was an influenza virus which they know how to produce and grow already and this strain is not essentially basically in the influenza club and probably will be administered in seasonal shots if it is predicted that H1N1 is going to be prominent in a given flu season.

The Oxford researcher whose news started the thread is saying:

BBC:

Prof Sarah Gilbert, the lead researcher developing the vaccine, says she is 80% sure it will work.

"This is my view, because I've worked with this technology a lot, and I've worked on the Mers-vaccine trials [another type of coronavirus], and I've seen what that can do.

"And, I think, it has a very strong chance of working."

Bloomberg:

The vaccine acts by priming the immune system to recognize and attack the coronavirus, stimulating a T-cell response. It uses the same technology as a shot Gilbert’s team previously developed for the related MERS coronavirus. That vaccine appeared to be safe in animal and early-stage human testing, giving confidence for the coronavirus version.

“We’re doing safety testing,” Gilbert said, “but we’re not concerned.”

Gilbert’s team has used the same technology for about 10 different vaccines, she said. The challenge that now arises is testing the vaccine even as virus infection rates vary.

So at least this one researcher feels she's got a strong track record due to fighting similar viruses. As above, though, the issue is testing which really can't be made faster, because if you get it wrong you can produce something that either doesn't work or something that even makes it worse.

We already hear people saying "give it to me anyway, it can't hurt" but in fact it can, it can make things worse rather than better.

The BBC report ends with:

It remains the view of scientists advising the UK government and of the World Health Organization that 12-18 months is a more realistic timescale for a vaccine.

I hope Prof. Gilbert's work is a success, but we have to be prepared for pretty much any outcome.
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Re: "COVID-19 vaccine could be ready for mass production as early as September."

Tue Apr 21, 2020 8:23 pm

Well I don't exactly agree that only a vaccine or pill "will let us out". We will be "out of it" when it is down to a slow burn, more like the normal flu. Down to a level that hospitals and emergency rooms and the public are used to and able to handle, able to manage and most people recover. Sure that might take a vaccine etc. but also a more careful public or sports on TV versus filled stadiums for a period of time, PPE while in general public etc., will bring things under control, as it is already starting to do now. (And no I don't advocate throwing it all away and all suddenly dancing together or whatever).

I think effective testing, quick, accurate, and at scale, is what will begin to let us out of this.

Tugg
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Re: "COVID-19 vaccine could be ready for mass production as early as September."

Tue Apr 21, 2020 8:48 pm

acavpics wrote:
par13del wrote:

If a vaccine is produced in the next few months, let's see where wide spread deployment is done, how they are monitored and how much information is made available. Due to the lock down procedures put in place, countries all over the world have the 3 types required, uninfected, infected with no symptoms and fully sick.


Once the trials are successful, results are approved, the chemical identity, and the manufacturing process for the vaccine are outlined, would you expect production to quickly start in countries all over the world? Or do you think only one or a few would be responsible for producing them and shipping them to the rest of the world?

Production would be centered in China, Russia, USA and Europe, that is where the knowledge is and the authorized industrial capacity that is safe, tested and meets WHO or some other international body standards.
 
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Re: "COVID-19 vaccine could be ready for mass production as early as September."

Tue Apr 21, 2020 8:59 pm

MaverickM11 wrote:
Are conservatives still pushing chloroquine? They seem to have gotten quiet:


Found this while eating lunch.

Link is about a VA 'records study' not an actual clinical trial. Bottom line is higher percentage of patients on that drug died than those without it. Of course results are not conclusive. Data end point is ten days old. No considerations of patient underlying conditions or stage of COVID-19 severity. Small sample of only 368 patient records across the nation. No consistency of total treatment plan.

https://abcnews.go.com/Health/wireStory/deaths-benefit-malaria-drug-va-virus-study-70266574?cid=clicksource_4380645_12_comic_strip_sq_hed
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Re: "COVID-19 vaccine could be ready for mass production as early as September."

Tue Apr 21, 2020 10:34 pm

Does highlight the pressure to do something, the sample size saying it was working had a much lower standard to meet.
It is still being tried so in time the knowledge base continues to grow.
 
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Re: "COVID-19 vaccine could be ready for mass production as early as September."

Tue Apr 21, 2020 10:38 pm

Is it possible to reopen our economy and return to a more or less normal way of life and prevent a second wave this coming fall/winter even if there is no vaccine? I was just watching the news, and apparently the CDC director stated that there is a possibility of a second wave (which we've known for quite a while now) but that it could be more deadly than this first one.

I'm not trying to get all emotional here, but I just cannot in any way picture life like this (schools/colleges closed, Professionals working remotely, travel at a stand-still, small businesses closed, social gatherings cancelled, people stuck at home etc) to continue for another freaking 12-18 months. In fact, I'd be astonished if most people will be able to hold it together past Fourth of July (A time for partying parades, backyard barbeques, Fireworks).
Is there hope that during the coming few months, the cases can fall enough so that by fall, people with COVID-19 can be treated and isolated from the general population while also relaxing most of the social distancing requirements?
 
ltbewr
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Re: "COVID-19 vaccine could be ready for mass production as early as September."

Tue Apr 21, 2020 11:27 pm

If a vaccine is broadly available to the world by later this year, it would be the greatest Christmas present of all time. Many would take it as one instead of consumer stuff most of us don't need. Still, I wouldn't get my hopes up too high.
 
StarAC17
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Re: "COVID-19 vaccine could be ready for mass production as early as September."

Wed Apr 22, 2020 1:39 am

Revelation wrote:
StarAC17 wrote:
I think H1N1 was quick because it was an influenza virus which they know how to produce and grow already and this strain is not essentially basically in the influenza club and probably will be administered in seasonal shots if it is predicted that H1N1 is going to be prominent in a given flu season.

The Oxford researcher whose news started the thread is saying:

BBC:

Prof Sarah Gilbert, the lead researcher developing the vaccine, says she is 80% sure it will work.

"This is my view, because I've worked with this technology a lot, and I've worked on the Mers-vaccine trials [another type of coronavirus], and I've seen what that can do.

"And, I think, it has a very strong chance of working."

Bloomberg:

The vaccine acts by priming the immune system to recognize and attack the coronavirus, stimulating a T-cell response. It uses the same technology as a shot Gilbert’s team previously developed for the related MERS coronavirus. That vaccine appeared to be safe in animal and early-stage human testing, giving confidence for the coronavirus version.

“We’re doing safety testing,” Gilbert said, “but we’re not concerned.”

Gilbert’s team has used the same technology for about 10 different vaccines, she said. The challenge that now arises is testing the vaccine even as virus infection rates vary.

So at least this one researcher feels she's got a strong track record due to fighting similar viruses. As above, though, the issue is testing which really can't be made faster, because if you get it wrong you can produce something that either doesn't work or something that even makes it worse.

We already hear people saying "give it to me anyway, it can't hurt" but in fact it can, it can make things worse rather than better.

The BBC report ends with:

It remains the view of scientists advising the UK government and of the World Health Organization that 12-18 months is a more realistic timescale for a vaccine.

I hope Prof. Gilbert's work is a success, but we have to be prepared for pretty much any outcome.


This seems in line with what I have read on immune response and reading Doc's virology thread. He did say that antibodies are not necessarily indicative of a large scale immunity especially with a respiratory virus and T-cells are what has the memory for the infection. They would identify the infection and either generate the antibodies or other means to fight off the infection. It would make sense that the body would not retain antibodies of every infection you have ever had. It just has the instructions to generate and immune response to a pathogen you have had or have been exposed to via vaccine.

Doc's response about antibodies and Cell-Mediated Immunity.

Immunity is not the same thing as antibodies

You can have antibodies that you generated against a virus (like HIV) and yet not be immune to it. If I inject you with an antibody against a virus, it may protect you from that virus and yet you are not immune because when the antibody wears off, you will be susceptible and even those patients who are injected with such an antibody have a lower, but not zero chance of being infected with that virus.

Conversely, it is quite common for children who have been vaccinated for chickenpox to not demonstrate circulating antibodies to the varicella-zoster virus and yet they do not become infected with it.

How can this be?

First, let's talk about how antibodies are created. Antibodies are generated by a type of white blood cell called a B lymphocyte, or a B cell. In the human genome there are three genes that are used to generate antibodies. Within each of these genes, there is a region called the "hypervariable region" that can be rearranged essentially at random (within that region) by certain systems that work in the cell's nucleus. Imagine as an analogy one of those screwdrivers with the exchangeable heads. You can fit eleventy kinds of head onto the same handle. The hypervariable region allows the cell to change the head of the antibody while the rest of the antibody stays the same.

So this randomly-generated hypervariable region of the new antibody is then tested against a bunch of "self" proteins. Antibodies shouldn't react to "self" proteins or that would generate autoimmunity. If it does react to one of those, then the cell is killed ("voted off the island," if you will), which is the result almost all of the time. For the one in several thousand cells that pass this test, then the antibody is tested against a bunch of non-self proteins that are being processed at that time by the immune system and if it binds to one of them, then the cell is allowed to mature and begin to divide so that it can make more antibody. After the infection is cleared, there is a contraction of the number of B cells, but a few are usually kept in reserve somewhere (memory B cells).

We call the presence of antibodies humoral immunity because the antibodies circulate in the plasma (humor). This is important for some viruses, like Hepatitis B, because Hepatitis B Virus must travel through the blood to get to the liver. So when Hepatitis B Virus gets into the blood of someone who is immune, the virus particles are immediately covered in antibodies and taken out of commission. But for a virus like SARS-CoV-2, it only rarely ever gets into the blood and entry into the blood is not essential for infection. Rather, it comes out of the air and infects cells in the respiratory tract. Once a virus is inside a cell, antibodies can't reach it.

So there's a second kind of lymphocyte called a T lymphocyte or a T cell and these cells have a similar set of genes to the antibodies, but the protein they create is called the T cell receptor (TCR).

So on the surface of every cell in your body (except for red blood cells), you express a set of proteins called Major HistoCompatibility (MHC) proteins, sometimes called Human Leukocyte Antigens (HLA). In every cell in your body that has a nucleus (so not red blood cells), proteins are constantly being made. A sample of every protein that is made in the cell is chopped into bits and those little pieces, called polypeptides. A MHC protein is kind of shaped like a hot dog bun with a groove down the middle, and so a little piece of every protein that is being made inside the cell is put into that groove and then the MHC protein with its little polypeptide is presented on the outside of the cell.

Just like B lymphocytes, T cells are constantly being created. They randomly rearrange their TCRs. These TCRs are then challenged against a panel of "self" polypeptides that are being presented on MHC molecules. If they recognize one of those "self" polypeptides, then the cell is negatively selected ("voted off the island"). If they pass this test (and again, only a tiny minority of cells do), then they are tested against the set of foreign peptides being handled by the immune system at that time and if they recognize one of these, then they are allowed to mature.

So when a cell is infected by a virus, the viral proteins start to get produced and just like any other protein being made in the cell, little snippets of viral protein are stuffed into MHC proteins and presented on the surface of the cell. Along comes a T cell that has a TCR that recognizes this MHC-polypeptide combination and when it does, the T cell is activated. It begins to divide so as to make copies of itself. But in addition, it sets off a chain of events directed at killing the infected cell. Signals are sent to the cell that set off a cascade of events called "apoptosis" in which the cell kills itself because a virus cannot replicate in a dead cell. Of course, viruses have systems to block apoptosis, so the T cell also sends out proteins that drill holes in the target cell. After the viral infection is cleared, most of the T cells undergo apoptosis (contraction) just like the B cells, but a few of them are stored away as "memory T cells" for future use should that virus be encountered again.

This kind of immunity is called "cell-mediated immunity." It's much more important for viral infections that infect mucosal surfaces (like the lungs, the GI tract, the nose, the genitourinary tract).

The trouble is that it's easy to test for antibodies. You take a blood sample. You take the antigen against which the antibodies are supposed to react and put it on a surface and then you see if antibodies bind to it. But for an infection like COVID-19, while we will make antibodies, the antibodies really are not likely to be the main important thing in the immune response. It's the cell-mediated response that's important.

So how to test for cell-mediated immunity? Well, every human being (aside from identical twins) has a unique set of MHC proteins called an HLA type. Your T-cells will only respond to cells that display your MHC type. So you'd have to grow cells in culture that have been genetically engineered with the patient's HLA molecules and then infect those cells in culture with the virus and then apply a sample of the patient's T cells to the culture and see if they react, which would have to be done with microscopic immunofluorescence. So you can see that while this is possible, it's incredibly complex and completely impractical in a clinical setting, although a few research studies have used this method.

For patients with SARS, their antibodies against the virus faded in about six months (maximum two years), but I would bet anyone a whole roll of toilet paper that they are still immune, but their immunity is cell-mediated, not humoral. And my guess is that it will be the same for COVID-19.
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Re: "COVID-19 vaccine could be ready for mass production as early as September."

Wed Apr 22, 2020 3:11 pm

University of Oxford has stated that human trials of ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 will start tomorrow (April 23, 2020) and plans to have over 500 people tested by the middle of May. Eventually, a final stage trial over 5000+ participants is planned to take place during the summer.
 
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Re: "COVID-19 vaccine could be ready for mass production as early as September."

Wed Apr 22, 2020 3:47 pm

Aesma wrote:
They're talking about having 1 million doses in September. Not really going to make a dent. But if it works, then it can be mass produced, and we can expect vulnerable people to get the vaccine by the end of the year.


If the richest 1 million get the vaccine, then I don't think we will hear anything more about it in the media and things will get back to normal.
 
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Re: "COVID-19 vaccine could be ready for mass production as early as September."

Wed Apr 22, 2020 5:29 pm

LCDFlight wrote:
Aesma wrote:
They're talking about having 1 million doses in September. Not really going to make a dent. But if it works, then it can be mass produced, and we can expect vulnerable people to get the vaccine by the end of the year.


If the richest 1 million get the vaccine, then I don't think we will hear anything more about it in the media and things will get back to normal.


That's in the U.K alone. If/when this vaccine gets the go-ahead, pharmaceutical manufacturers should start the production of this, allowing it to become more widespread. During the first month or two, it will most likely be available only to those at high risk such as the elderly and front line healthcare workers. Then the rest of the general population might get them as we roll into November or December.
 
art
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Re: "COVID-19 vaccine could be ready for mass production as early as September."

Wed Apr 22, 2020 6:56 pm

I hear on UK radio that the US state of Missouri has started a lawsuit against China (in a local court).

I hope that further entities apart from Missouri sue China for damages due to losses brought about by Chinese malfeasance with regard to the novel coronavirus.
 
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Re: "COVID-19 vaccine could be ready for mass production as early as September."

Thu Apr 23, 2020 6:57 am

The richest are already banging about restarting the economy (cue Trump), they can continue to isolate while the rest of us make them money !

art : new autopsies prove the virus was in the US in early January, maybe even last year. Did the US health care system detect anything at the time ? Are you demanding that China does better than you ?
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TTailedTiger
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Re: "COVID-19 vaccine could be ready for mass production as early as September."

Thu Apr 23, 2020 7:06 am

scbriml wrote:
einsteinboricua wrote:
MaverickM11 wrote:
Are conservatives still pushing chloroquine? They seem to have gotten quiet.

I'm more interested in seeing how the antivaxxer crowd is staying silent with this pandemic on the landscape. Haven't heard anything from them along the lines of demanding a stop to vaccine development or to catch the virus and form natural immunity.


It's hardly surprising because logic and reasoning aren't their strong points.


Uh, there are some big liberal celebrities that are anti-vaxxers. You should slow your strokes with that broad brush.
 
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acavpics
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What if a COVID-19 vaccine is not found?

Fri Apr 24, 2020 2:01 pm

We've all heard that life can't return to normal for another 12 -18 months, which is the predicted time frame for a COVID-19 vaccine. But what if they don't find a vaccine by the end of this period? After all, this is just a prediction, NOT a guarantee.

Will we be stuck indoors and doing things virtually for an indefinite period of time?

Students can't got to college/school to get essential experiences, people can't go to work. On top of this, they cannot even go visit friends and loved ones, attend public events, see doctors and therapists, travel, or even go out for lunch with their families.People will go crazy if they can't do these things for another 1.5 years. Some of these things bring real happiness and emotional healing to many folks (myself included).

Companies and governments will go bankrupt and collapse. Folks won't be able to pay for essential services like healthcare (Even if your country has universal healthcare). People won't be able to pay for treatments for other medical issues such as heart attacks, cancer, injuries etc. Depression rates will skyrocket, as people cannot do most of the things they love, will likely be unemployed, and can't meet many of their friends and family. Rates of crime, poverty, murder etc will go up the roof.

Dreams will be crushed.

My point is that countries around the world will have to find a way to safely return to normal life even when the threat of COVID-19 is still there. Even if/when a second (or even a third and fourth) wave strikes, they will likely find ways to contain and isolate those who are infected while allowing normal life to continue. What are some ways in which this can be done?
 
GalaxyFlyer
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Re: What if a COVID-19 vaccine is not found?

Fri Apr 24, 2020 2:16 pm

We’ll return to life as it was in the Late Middle Ages. The assumption now appears to have moved from “flatten the curve” to “not unlocking until no one dies”. A ridiculous standard.

If we just started wearing masks in public and using gloves we’d do a lot to reduce transmission of the disease. But, experts said we weren’t smart enough to be trusted, then the truth came out.
 
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einsteinboricua
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Re: What if a COVID-19 vaccine is not found?

Fri Apr 24, 2020 2:31 pm

GalaxyFlyer wrote:
If we just started wearing masks in public and using gloves we’d do a lot to reduce transmission of the disease.

Have you been able to find masks and gloves and disinfecting wipes and hand sanitizer in grocery store shelves? Let me know where.

GalaxyFlyer wrote:
But, experts said we weren’t smart enough to be trusted, then the truth came out.
We're a country that has to put a warning on boxes saying that after microwaving, the contents are hot. We have a president that tells people that windmills cause cancer (and people who buy it). We have people who consumed a different form of the compound in a malaria drug because they believed it would help. We have people who avoid modern medicine and swear by essential oils and colloidal silver as alternatives; people who buy "raw water"; people who believe vaccines will cause someone to develop autism; people who believe diseases are either manufactured (for whatever reason) or divine punishment (for whatever reason); people who believe they are "protected" because of their faith.

And you seriously think they will be smart enough to be trusted?
"You haven't seen a tree until you've seen its shadow from the sky."
 
AirWorthy99
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Re: What if a COVID-19 vaccine is not found?

Fri Apr 24, 2020 2:50 pm

einsteinboricua wrote:

And you seriously think they will be smart enough to be trusted?


People need to be responsible for their action, they are not children and not all of them have mental issues. People will pay with their lives if they don't follow the suggestions and guidance, whoever it is, either liberal or conservatives.

Everything in life there is a risk, yet we trust everyone to make the right decisions, just that for COVID no one can be trusted for some reason. Self responsibility is what makes us stronger, not a government telling us we are stupid and that we should snitch out on our neighbors if they don't follow the rules. We pay for our decisions, some pay with their lives, that's the truth, you can't hold liable the entire world for the ultimate result of things we do. That's why there are risks.
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Re: What if a COVID-19 vaccine is not found?

Fri Apr 24, 2020 2:50 pm

GalaxyFlyer wrote:
The assumption now appears to have moved from “flatten the curve” to “not unlocking until no one dies”.

Fake!

Seriously, completely fake and made up by some people to give you a ridiculous, stupid "standard" to argue against. And you seriously believe this is what is being proclaimed?

Tugg
I don’t know that I am unafraid to be myself, but it is hard to be somebody else. - W. Shatner
There are many kinds of sentences that we think state facts about the world but that are really just expressions of our attitudes. - F. Ramsey
 
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Aaron747
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Re: What if a COVID-19 vaccine is not found?

Fri Apr 24, 2020 2:55 pm

GalaxyFlyer wrote:
The assumption now appears to have moved from “flatten the curve” to “not unlocking until no one dies”. A ridiculous standard.


Nobody from the task force, CDC, NIH, the multiple epidemiologists posting regularly on Twitter - nobody has said anything like that. Ridiculous to believe online lies so easily.
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GalaxyFlyer
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Re: What if a COVID-19 vaccine is not found?

Fri Apr 24, 2020 2:58 pm

einsteinboricua wrote:
GalaxyFlyer wrote:
If we just started wearing masks in public and using gloves we’d do a lot to reduce transmission of the disease.

Have you been able to find masks and gloves and disinfecting wipes and hand sanitizer in grocery store shelves? Let me know where.

GalaxyFlyer wrote:
But, experts said we weren’t smart enough to be trusted, then the truth came out.
We're a country that has to put a warning on boxes saying that after microwaving, the contents are hot. We have a president that tells people that windmills cause cancer (and people who buy it). We have people who consumed a different form of the compound in a malaria drug because they believed it would help. We have people who avoid modern medicine and swear by essential oils and colloidal silver as alternatives; people who buy "raw water"; people who believe vaccines will cause someone to develop autism; people who believe diseases are either manufactured (for whatever reason) or divine punishment (for whatever reason); people who believe they are "protected" because of their faith.

And you seriously think they will be smart enough to be trusted?


We had a personal supply of 95 masks used for household work plus boxes of vinyl gloves. The vinyl gloves were for cleaning and reloading. Be prepared.
 
GalaxyFlyer
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Re: What if a COVID-19 vaccine is not found?

Fri Apr 24, 2020 2:59 pm

Aaron747 wrote:
GalaxyFlyer wrote:
The assumption now appears to have moved from “flatten the curve” to “not unlocking until no one dies”. A ridiculous standard.


Nobody from the task force, CDC, NIH, the multiple epidemiologists posting regularly on Twitter - nobody has said anything like that. Ridiculous to believe online lies so easily.


Yes, it was and is a mild exaggeration, but two weeks has become months. Get over it.

Just one example.

https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2020/4 ... r-in-Place

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