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Will we soon see a coup by parts of the military in Brazil?

Posted: Sun Apr 26, 2020 4:26 pm
by T4thH
Bolsanaro is hard working, to be kicked of his job. With his behavior during the COVID-19 pandemic (and also all the trouble prior), it seems, he has now lost the support by the population, with exception of his strongest believers of this populist. With "Moro", he has now kicked the last of the 3 members of his government, who have shielded him (these were Moro, Mandetta and Guedes). By bad luck )for him) it seems, Moro has had collected and prepared some interesting documents (just for this moment), which are now published....

The former governments with their corruption, the misconducts of the elite of the politicians and of course, at least all the behavior the populist Bolsanaro, who has done everything to undermine the democracy to form a autocracy with him on the top, have altogether paved the way for a group of military members, to perform a coup. This group is working for a prolonged time, to undermine the democracy and to get on power. Member of these are already part of the now existing Bolsanaro government (as example former general and now vice president Hamilton Mourão) as also many/most of the senior staff of Bolsanaro, who are existing and former members of the military and member of this group of the military members

Most worse, a big part of the population does not any more believe in the democracy, they will be fine with the next military dictatorship, just remind, there was a military dictatorship from 1864 to 1985,...

Will we see soon the take over of Brazil by a military dictatorship/autocracy?

Article is in German, please use a translator like Google e.g.:
Page one:
https://www.zeit.de/politik/ausland/2020-04/brasilien-jair-bolsonaro-sergio-moro-militaer-coronavirus
Page two:
https://www.zeit.de/politik/ausland/2020-04/brasilien-jair-bolsonaro-sergio-moro-militaer-coronavirus/seite-2

Re: Will we soon see a coup by parts of the military in Brazil?

Posted: Sun Apr 26, 2020 4:58 pm
by Francoflier
Populism never ends well...

...ever.

Re: Will we soon see a coup by parts of the military in Brazil?

Posted: Sun Apr 26, 2020 5:43 pm
by PPVRA
I doubt there will be a coup. People have vastly exaggerated Bolsonaro’s ties to the military, merely because he was once part of the military a long time ago.

Word is many of his political appointees, who were former military, are also very upset at him over what he has pulled to protect his sons’ over their corruption allegations. He doesn’t have support from these people, and I doubt the military would ever go for a coup.

What Bolsonaro has done is shoot himself in the foot electorally. He has zero chances of getting elected again.

Re: Will we soon see a coup by parts of the military in Brazil?

Posted: Sun Apr 26, 2020 6:04 pm
by PPVRA
FYI, up until two days ago, there were zero acts by Bolsonaro that could be considered “undemocratic”.

You could call certain things wrong, wrongheaded, whatever, but the narrative that he has been undermining Brazilian democracy up until now has been pushed by die hard supporters of the corrupt and discredited Worker’s Party, which should truly be regarded as a criminal organization. They have zero credibility.

But as of two days ago, there’s reason to be troubled by Bolsonaro’s recent acts.

What people need to understand is that the legal troubles of two of Bolsonaro’s two sons did not begin until about two months after Bolsonaro took office. Since then, the relationship between him and Moro has been awkward. But now he has crossed a line and Moro is 100% correct in resigning.

Re: Will we soon see a coup by parts of the military in Brazil?

Posted: Sun Apr 26, 2020 6:53 pm
by rfields5421
I'll admit to being a dumb American, knowing very little about what is happening in Brazil, but I got the impression from the original post that he was talking about a coup to overthrow the current leader in power.

Or was he talking about a 'coup' to prop up the current leader?

Which isn't really a coup in my understanding of the term. More an imposition of martial law to support changing from a democratic government to a dictatorship.

Re: Will we soon see a coup by parts of the military in Brazil?

Posted: Sun Apr 26, 2020 7:14 pm
by Aesma
PPVRA : if all politicians are corrupt in Brazil (which seems to be the case) then you can't just point at the corruption of others to absolve yourself of your own.

By going after Lula etc. in a strong way, with dirty hands, what Moro and Bolsonaro have done is to prepare a jail cell for themselves when the tide turns.

Re: Will we soon see a coup by parts of the military in Brazil?

Posted: Sun Apr 26, 2020 7:29 pm
by PPVRA
rfields5421 wrote:
I'll admit to being a dumb American, knowing very little about what is happening in Brazil, but I got the impression from the original post that he was talking about a coup to overthrow the current leader in power.

Or was he talking about a 'coup' to prop up the current leader?

Which isn't really a coup in my understanding of the term. More an imposition of martial law to support changing from a democratic government to a dictatorship.


The second choice.

Being former military, Bolsonaro knows a lot of people that are also military. He has appointed many for different positions within his government.

This has perturbed some people, because of the 20 year military dictatorships Brazil lived with. But it’s mostly a “tin foil hat” ish type argument with no evidence to back it up. To be expected from a fierce opposition, who throws Avery thing against Bolsonaro and is extremely obstructionist, but it’s just politics.

Re: Will we soon see a coup by parts of the military in Brazil?

Posted: Sun Apr 26, 2020 7:36 pm
by PPVRA
Aesma wrote:
PPVRA : if all politicians are corrupt in Brazil (which seems to be the case) then you can't just point at the corruption of others to absolve yourself of your own.

By going after Lula etc. in a strong way, with dirty hands, what Moro and Bolsonaro have done is to prepare a jail cell for themselves when the tide turns.


Lula has multiple charges of corruption pending against him and at least two convictions, upheld by TWO superior courts of appeals. Including collegiate decisions by multiple judges.

There’s literally 10-20 judges who have voted to convict Lula. And those cases have been running on the courts for years.

Lula’s jail term began in early 2018, before Bolsonaro was president.

Re: Will we soon see a coup by parts of the military in Brazil?

Posted: Mon Apr 27, 2020 12:09 am
by Derico
Why would the military tarnish their reputation in this situation? Brazil's institutions have shown in the recent past they are solid enough to hold their leaders more accountable than the for about 20 years now incorrectly named "advanced democracies" in other countries. With examples cited before here like the Lula process, and then Dilma's impeachment. This situation is even more clear than the other two, and the momentum is certainly in the direction that he step down in the civilian sector. So there is nothing for the military to gain by intervening when they can just let it happen on its own.

I have no doubt that if a president in the the ABC countries in South America had actually made a statement that lead people to consume chemicals in a hope to cure a disease, that president would be charged with some sort of crime. But at least such a situation proves what many of us knew, that a leader's words MATTER, and that it does drive weak minded, uneducated people into acting behaviors they would not otherwise do. Drones, essentially. Those kind of people are also what makes social media so dangerous. So Brazil has some of the same social polarizations than the US: both big countries, diverse populations, a vanishing moderation in political thought, huge inequalities in income.

In the New World, you also have the fundamentalist evangelical Christian effect, where in many countries leaders have been tapping on these extremists, or the other way around. And yes, they are extremists: they don't believe in science, in basic general hygiene, loath organized government, believe in strange phenomena, are very conservative about the role of women (submissive).... Without the "Jihadist" component, who does that description remind us of?? Bolsonaro, Trump, both are beholden to these fringes.

Re: Will we soon see a coup by parts of the military in Brazil?

Posted: Mon Apr 27, 2020 9:44 am
by Aesma
PPVRA wrote:
Aesma wrote:
PPVRA : if all politicians are corrupt in Brazil (which seems to be the case) then you can't just point at the corruption of others to absolve yourself of your own.

By going after Lula etc. in a strong way, with dirty hands, what Moro and Bolsonaro have done is to prepare a jail cell for themselves when the tide turns.


Lula has multiple charges of corruption pending against him and at least two convictions, upheld by TWO superior courts of appeals. Including collegiate decisions by multiple judges.

There’s literally 10-20 judges who have voted to convict Lula. And those cases have been running on the courts for years.

Lula’s jail term began in early 2018, before Bolsonaro was president.


I didn't say Lula wasn't corrupt. I said I'm not convinced he's more corrupt than those who are attacking him. And some of the charges are looking really iffy, throwing everything into doubt.

Moro was involved in Lula's fate, then once Bolsonaro gets elected (thanks in part to Lula not being allowed to run), he gets rewarded with a minister job. Perfectly fine I guess.

Re: Will we soon see a coup by parts of the military in Brazil?

Posted: Mon Apr 27, 2020 11:03 am
by tommy1808
PPVRA wrote:
FYI, up until two days ago, there were zero acts by Bolsonaro that could be considered “undemocratic”.


Well, his policies towards the indigenous come close to attempted genocide.

And given his history that is no accident: https://theintercept.com/2019/02/16/bra ... nous-land/

Best regards
Thomas

Re: Will we soon see a coup by parts of the military in Brazil?

Posted: Mon Apr 27, 2020 12:08 pm
by PPVRA
tommy1808 wrote:
PPVRA wrote:
FYI, up until two days ago, there were zero acts by Bolsonaro that could be considered “undemocratic”.


Well, his policies towards the indigenous come close to attempted genocide.

And given his history that is no accident: https://theintercept.com/2019/02/16/bra ... nous-land/

Best regards
Thomas


I used to have a lot of respect for The Intercept and Glenn Greenwald. But that man has fallen from grace in a spectacular fashion, at least in Brazil.

Glenn, who is gay and married to a Brazilian, has lived in Rio for many years now. His husband happens to be a politician, former member of Rio’s city council
and currently in the Brazilian Congress, as a member of a far-left political party that split away from the Worker’s Party a few years ago, but remains tightly allied with the Worker’s Party.

Also, as a gay man, Glenn has the right to be upset at some of the things Bolsonaro has said about homosexuality. He’s defending himself and his beloved husband, as well as his community.

My point is, Glenn has far too much emotion involved in this. Between his love and his husband’s political affiliation and career prospects, the hate for people who use homophobic commentary, he simply has too much going on that makes him a candidate for bias.

As for the linked article, suffice to say that Bolsonaro has fought to give natives the right to their lands, so that they can mine in their own lands if they so wish, raise cattle, etc. That doesn’t bode well with environmental groups because their expectation was that natives would forever stick to their traditional cultures and remain small. But that’s for another thread. The blending of native reserves with natural reserves is not working out.

Re: Will we soon see a coup by parts of the military in Brazil?

Posted: Mon Apr 27, 2020 1:39 pm
by Dutchy
Hopefully not, not another dictatorship on the face of the earth. Full democracy is the preferred why to rule aa country, with. all its flaws, we haven't seen a better system yet. One of the flaws is that a populist can take power, but a full democracy does have good institutions to combat these populistic measures, and then it is up to the population to sort things out. A military coup is never the. answer to anything. Another autocratic regime is not what Brasil needs.

Re: Will we soon see a coup by parts of the military in Brazil?

Posted: Wed Apr 29, 2020 7:19 am
by tommy1808
Dutchy wrote:
Hopefully not, not another dictatorship on the face of the earth. Full democracy is the preferred why to rule aa country, with. all its flaws, we haven't seen a better system yet. One of the flaws is that a populist can take power, but a full democracy does have good institutions to combat these populistic measures, and then it is up to the population to sort things out. A military coup is never the. answer to anything. Another autocratic regime is not what Brasil needs.


The military job is usually not just protected the territory per se, but protect the constitutional order.
I don´t think Brasil is at a point justifying it, but there can easily be a point where not removing the leadership is dereliction of duty for military commanders.

best regards
Thomas

Re: Will we soon see a coup by parts of the military in Brazil?

Posted: Wed Apr 29, 2020 7:35 pm
by GDB
He continues to be...well him;
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/ ... death-toll

Seriously, if those that voted for him are shocked, why?

Re: Will we soon see a coup by parts of the military in Brazil?

Posted: Thu Apr 30, 2020 5:41 am
by tommy1808
GDB wrote:
He continues to be...well him;
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/ ... death-toll

Seriously, if those that voted for him are shocked, why?


he is looking at the US and sees lots of Trump voters perfectly willing to play along and run into gun fire, so he just tries to copy that "success".

best regards
Thomas