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COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - May 2020

Fri May 01, 2020 1:56 pm

Welcome to Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - May 2020. Please continue to add your comments below.

Link to last thread

viewtopic.php?f=11&t=1443803&start=2100

Just a reminder for all users to engage with one another in a respectful and civil manner without provoking one another
Last edited by SQ22 on Sun May 10, 2020 8:45 am, edited 1 time in total.
Reason: Title updated
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casinterest
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Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - May 2020

Fri May 01, 2020 2:33 pm

We Enter May with some good news:

1 Million + Recoveries from Covid-19

Bad news
3.33 Million + cases
235,000+ deaths.

~7% of the worldometer reported cases have resulted in death.

Assuming that the virus has infected far more than have been diagnosed of it, the real death rate is probably much lower. However, it is still a scary number entering into May.

The Trends seem to have Plateaued and declined in many Countries, but there are some Countries such as Russia, Brazil, India, Ecuador, Peru, where the trend is going up rapidly.

Let's see where all the phased in re-openings lead to during this month.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
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trpmb6
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Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - May 2020

Fri May 01, 2020 3:54 pm

I still contend I have already had it. As well as all of my friends and coworkers who were all sick in late December early January to varying degrees with some reporting nothing more than a slight fever and mild cough to two people being hospitalized and put on oxygen with "viral pneumonia".

I think when we have widespread antibody testing we will find this virus spread far and wide way earlier than anyone previously thought.
 
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Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - May 2020

Fri May 01, 2020 3:57 pm

In other news. Kansas will begin reopening on May4th with certain limitations. Phase 1 maintains gatherings less than 10 but non essential businesses can start to reopen with certain guidelines. Bars and restaurants can reopen at 50% capacity 2 weeks later and full capacity 2 weeks after that. In 2 weeks we can move to 30 people gatherings, 2 weeks later 90.

Basically, with the exception of schools, we will be fully open by mid to late June.
 
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casinterest
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Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - May 2020

Fri May 01, 2020 4:04 pm

trpmb6 wrote:
I still contend I have already had it. As well as all of my friends and coworkers who were all sick in late December early January to varying degrees with some reporting nothing more than a slight fever and mild cough to two people being hospitalized and put on oxygen with "viral pneumonia".

I think when we have widespread antibody testing we will find this virus spread far and wide way earlier than anyone previously thought.



According to this article the chances are not zero, but not really likely.

https://www.iflscience.com/health-and-m ... realistic/

Nicholas Reich, a biostatistician from the University of Massachusetts Amherst who leads the CDC’s flu forecasting team, looked into the number of non-flu-related influenza-like illnesses across the US this year. The team suspected there might have been a sharp rise of these mystery respiratory illnesses in the 2019-2020 flu season, indicating that undetected COVID-19 cases were spreading across the US from around the new year.

However, the lab’s report concluded there were no truly significant increases in mystery respiratory illnesses compared to previous years. In other words, not that many people in the US were sick with an unknown respiratory illness in December or January that could potentially have been COVID-19.


What we know about the rate of spread makes it unlikely it was here before the middle/end of January.
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LNCS0930
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Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - May 2020

Fri May 01, 2020 4:30 pm

trpmb6 wrote:
I still contend I have already had it. As well as all of my friends and coworkers who were all sick in late December early January to varying degrees with some reporting nothing more than a slight fever and mild cough to two people being hospitalized and put on oxygen with "viral pneumonia".

I think when we have widespread antibody testing we will find this virus spread far and wide way earlier than anyone previously thought.


On a limited scale I think it was around in December and January. I just think the asymptomatic or minor infection rate is way higher than the WHO or CDC ever imagined. The majority of viruses which infect humans do generally have asymptomatic infection rates of about 30-35% at least. So if you go and infect 10 people with a rhinovirus, norovirus, influenza about 3 won’t develop any symptoms. You could infect those same 10 people though 2 years later and maybe a different group of 3 are asymptomatic the second time around. Based on the studies I’ve seen I suspect the asymptomatic infection rate with this is close to 50-55%. What they don’t know is why the other 40-45 get sick and why 15-20 get very sick (even some young people). This has occurred though with many viruses over time. West Nile virus for example won’t produce symptoms in 80% of people but occasionally a healthy 30 year old dies from it or ends up permanently disabled due to developing encephalitis. It’s likely that on occasion immune responses don’t do what they’re supposed to do in random samples and that’s all there is to it
 
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Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - May 2020

Fri May 01, 2020 4:33 pm

casinterest wrote:
trpmb6 wrote:
I still contend I have already had it. As well as all of my friends and coworkers who were all sick in late December early January to varying degrees with some reporting nothing more than a slight fever and mild cough to two people being hospitalized and put on oxygen with "viral pneumonia".

I think when we have widespread antibody testing we will find this virus spread far and wide way earlier than anyone previously thought.



According to this article the chances are not zero, but not really likely.

https://www.iflscience.com/health-and-m ... realistic/

Nicholas Reich, a biostatistician from the University of Massachusetts Amherst who leads the CDC’s flu forecasting team, looked into the number of non-flu-related influenza-like illnesses across the US this year. The team suspected there might have been a sharp rise of these mystery respiratory illnesses in the 2019-2020 flu season, indicating that undetected COVID-19 cases were spreading across the US from around the new year.

However, the lab’s report concluded there were no truly significant increases in mystery respiratory illnesses compared to previous years. In other words, not that many people in the US were sick with an unknown respiratory illness in December or January that could potentially have been COVID-19.


What we know about the rate of spread makes it unlikely it was here before the middle/end of January.


Considering my interactions and my group of friends interactions with people who travel frequently it makes perfect sense.

Also you obviously didn't read my post in the last thread. One of my friends was tested two days ago for antibodies and tested positive. He was sick mid to late December. We are now in the process of going down the line of interactions and who was sick in that frame. Our friend who had pneumonia and was admitted December 25th (yes went on oxygen on Christmas day, talk about suckwad) is being tested Wednesday. If she tests positive myself and my son are next up as we were sick a week (me) and 2 weeks (my son) later. My son was on oxygen for a week in early to mid January.
 
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Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - May 2020

Fri May 01, 2020 4:41 pm

trpmb6 wrote:
casinterest wrote:
trpmb6 wrote:
I still contend I have already had it. As well as all of my friends and coworkers who were all sick in late December early January to varying degrees with some reporting nothing more than a slight fever and mild cough to two people being hospitalized and put on oxygen with "viral pneumonia".

I think when we have widespread antibody testing we will find this virus spread far and wide way earlier than anyone previously thought.



According to this article the chances are not zero, but not really likely.

https://www.iflscience.com/health-and-m ... realistic/

Nicholas Reich, a biostatistician from the University of Massachusetts Amherst who leads the CDC’s flu forecasting team, looked into the number of non-flu-related influenza-like illnesses across the US this year. The team suspected there might have been a sharp rise of these mystery respiratory illnesses in the 2019-2020 flu season, indicating that undetected COVID-19 cases were spreading across the US from around the new year.

However, the lab’s report concluded there were no truly significant increases in mystery respiratory illnesses compared to previous years. In other words, not that many people in the US were sick with an unknown respiratory illness in December or January that could potentially have been COVID-19.


What we know about the rate of spread makes it unlikely it was here before the middle/end of January.


Considering my interactions and my group of friends interactions with people who travel frequently it makes perfect sense.

Also you obviously didn't read my post in the last thread. One of my friends was tested two days ago for antibodies and tested positive. He was sick mid to late December. We are now in the process of going down the line of interactions and who was sick in that frame. Our friend who had pneumonia and was admitted December 25th (yes went on oxygen on Christmas day, talk about suckwad) is being tested Wednesday. If she tests positive myself and my son are next up as we were sick a week (me) and 2 weeks (my son) later. My son was on oxygen for a week in early to mid January.



I missed your post in the last thread, but if you have had it and survived, then that is good news, but it doesn't account for why Kansas continues to spike if the wave already rolled through, and put quite a few friends into the hospital.


http://reno.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdas ... 93b2ccb994

I get that your friends and colleagues fall into a range that does a lot of travel to China, so it will be interesting if the antibodies are for the Chinese or European strain. it may also explain why Ford county is the hotspot in Kansas instead of the areas around Kansas City.
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casinterest
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Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - May 2020

Fri May 01, 2020 5:07 pm

For those that doubt the veracity of the death rates in NYC take a look at this article.

https://www.wral.com/nyc-deaths-reach-s ... /19079670/

More than 27,000 New Yorkers have died since March 11 — 20,900 more than would be expected over this period and thousands more than have been captured by official coronavirus death statistics.

As of Sunday, the city had attributed 16,673 deaths to coronavirus, either because people had tested positive for the virus, or because the circumstances of their death meant that city health officials believed the virus to be the most likely cause of death.


Interesting article, and it will be interesting to see if other deaths are the cause , or if Coronavirus is being under counted.
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LNCS0930
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Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - May 2020

Fri May 01, 2020 6:19 pm

GA and FL case counts soared today because of big testing ramp ups that started a week or so ago. Media of course blaming it on the opening of things when in reality all of these people would have gotten sick before that occurred
 
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Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - May 2020

Fri May 01, 2020 6:32 pm

LNCS0930 wrote:
GA and FL case counts soared today because of big testing ramp ups that started a week or so ago. Media of course blaming it on the opening of things when in reality all of these people would have gotten sick before that occurred



It's not just the tests. It is the positive tests coming back over a 14 day period. The last two weeks are moving targets in both states.

https://dph.georgia.gov/covid-19-daily-status-report

Georgia's cases over time seems to have plateaued, but their moving average is still trending higher with each new data set.


https://fdoh.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsda ... 5dc7837c86

Florida has the same issue. They appear to be at a plateau., but we need to wait for more data to see a clear trend.


This is the danger in opening the states back up too soon. Some counties and metros just are not ready for it.
Where ever you go, there you are.
 
PixelPilot
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Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - May 2020

Fri May 01, 2020 6:34 pm

Like this is one of the things I will never understand even with covid-19 as a "reason".
One way or another hopefully you are not on their path.
https://www.foxnews.com/us/california-g ... -offenders
https://www.foxnews.com/politics/dems-o ... s-pandemic
Last edited by PixelPilot on Fri May 01, 2020 7:03 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
AirWorthy99
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Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - May 2020

Fri May 01, 2020 6:59 pm

casinterest wrote:

Florida has the same issue. They appear to be at a plateau., but we need to wait for more data to see a clear trend.


This is the danger in opening the states back up too soon. Some counties and metros just are not ready for it.


So its no longer 'flatten the curve' we are not there yet is just a 'plateau'.

Florida despite the unfortunate deaths, we are well bellow death per capita in the country. 6 deaths per 100,000 people in the state. Ron Desantis has done a great job not shutting down entirely the country but rather a 'soft' lock-down.

Don't know but if having relaxed guidelines give us these numbers of 6 deaths per 100,000, don't see how furthering relaxing them starting Monday are going to make it worse, and the won't.

Starting Monday, I am going to enjoy going to my favorite restaurants, take the wife shopping for mother's day gift at the retail that will open, and get a reservation for a restaurant on mothers day. Next Monday kids have no school so we are going to a State park since the governor also announced opening them starting Monday. Of course with our precautions, and being responsible, something grownups do.

The experts just said that Coronavirus is going to be with us for at least 2 years. If you wish to stay lock-down for 2 years, go ahead, don't leave home. But the rest of us we will go out, since its extremely unhealthy to stay indoors for 2 years and the economy needs to move on.

In the end, all of us are going to become Sweden, the common sense governors most of which are Republicans and with the exception of a democrat from Colorado understands this very well.

Sorry to hear from the guys in California and the other states, power obsessed and spotlight addicted governors won't cede power that simple. They love the power, they love the attention too much, they are postponing the inevitable just out of vanity.

Big question for those who support your liberal governors, how hard is it to social distance in the beach? or in the park?
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Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - May 2020

Fri May 01, 2020 7:14 pm

AirWorthy99 wrote:
casinterest wrote:

Florida has the same issue. They appear to be at a plateau., but we need to wait for more data to see a clear trend.


This is the danger in opening the states back up too soon. Some counties and metros just are not ready for it.


So its no longer 'flatten the curve' we are not there yet is just a 'plateau'.

Florida despite the unfortunate deaths, we are well bellow death per capita in the country. 6 deaths per 100,000 people in the state. Ron Desantis has done a great job not shutting down entirely the country but rather a 'soft' lock-down.

Don't know but if having relaxed guidelines give us these numbers of 6 deaths per 100,000, don't see how furthering relaxing them starting Monday are going to make it worse, and the won't.

Starting Monday, I am going to enjoy going to my favorite restaurants, take the wife shopping for mother's day gift at the retail that will open, and get a reservation for a restaurant on mothers day. Next Monday kids have no school so we are going to a State park since the governor also announced opening them starting Monday. Of course with our precautions, and being responsible, something grownups do.

The experts just said that Coronavirus is going to be with us for at least 2 years. If you wish to stay lock-down for 2 years, go ahead, don't leave home. But the rest of us we will go out, since its extremely unhealthy to stay indoors for 2 years and the economy needs to move on.

In the end, all of us are going to become Sweden, the common sense governors most of which are Republicans and with the exception of a democrat from Colorado understands this very well.

Sorry to hear from the guys in California and the other states, power obsessed and spotlight addicted governors won't cede power that simple. They love the power, they love the attention too much, they are postponing the inevitable just out of vanity.

Big question for those who support your liberal governors, how hard is it to social distance in the beach? or in the park?


What does your rant have anything to do with what i have said?

I have said repeatedly we need to get it under control. June 1 was my time frame.

Now we are opening earlier. The economy is not going to magically recover. Even the great state of Texas has extremely liberal rules for claiming unemployment. As cases rise, this will all be much more of an issue.

https://www.newsweek.com/texas-coronavi ... tt-1501448
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Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - May 2020

Fri May 01, 2020 7:34 pm

trpmb6 wrote:
I still contend I have already had it. As well as all of my friends and coworkers who were all sick in late December early January to varying degrees with some reporting nothing more than a slight fever and mild cough to two people being hospitalized and put on oxygen with "viral pneumonia".

I think when we have widespread antibody testing we will find this virus spread far and wide way earlier than anyone previously thought.


Are you saying your government lied (assuming you're not Chinese) ?
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Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - May 2020

Fri May 01, 2020 7:36 pm

casinterest wrote:
LNCS0930 wrote:
GA and FL case counts soared today because of big testing ramp ups that started a week or so ago. Media of course blaming it on the opening of things when in reality all of these people would have gotten sick before that occurred



It's not just the tests. It is the positive tests coming back over a 14 day period. The last two weeks are moving targets in both states.

https://dph.georgia.gov/covid-19-daily-status-report

Georgia's cases over time seems to have plateaued, but their moving average is still trending higher with each new data set.


https://fdoh.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsda ... 5dc7837c86

Florida has the same issue. They appear to be at a plateau., but we need to wait for more data to see a clear trend.


This is the danger in opening the states back up too soon. Some counties and metros just are not ready for it.

I think that it is a fair point to make, that states and communities are "reopening" and this is happening as more testing is coming online.

The testing increase will cause an increase in "positives" for COVID-19, and it will be easy to conflate "cause and affect" between the two data points. We need to be careful we don't do that, don't blame one action blindly as causing the other. We need to know the real numbers and real causal forces and impacts and how this is reflected in the numbers.

Just situational awareness. Always a good thing.

Tugg
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Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - May 2020

Fri May 01, 2020 7:48 pm

Tugger wrote:
casinterest wrote:
LNCS0930 wrote:
GA and FL case counts soared today because of big testing ramp ups that started a week or so ago. Media of course blaming it on the opening of things when in reality all of these people would have gotten sick before that occurred



It's not just the tests. It is the positive tests coming back over a 14 day period. The last two weeks are moving targets in both states.

https://dph.georgia.gov/covid-19-daily-status-report

Georgia's cases over time seems to have plateaued, but their moving average is still trending higher with each new data set.


https://fdoh.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsda ... 5dc7837c86

Florida has the same issue. They appear to be at a plateau., but we need to wait for more data to see a clear trend.


This is the danger in opening the states back up too soon. Some counties and metros just are not ready for it.

I think that it is a fair point to make, that states and communities are "reopening" and this is happening as more testing is coming online.

The testing increase will cause an increase in "positives" for COVID-19, and it will be easy to conflate "cause and affect" between the two data points. We need to be careful we don't do that, don't blame one action blindly as causing the other. We need to know the real numbers and real causal forces and impacts and how this is reflected in the numbers.

Just situational awareness. Always a good thing.

Tugg


Yes, and the death rate will be the key lagging metric,
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olle
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Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - May 2020

Fri May 01, 2020 8:02 pm

The "R" number is now considered to be 0.85 in Sweden;

https://www.aftonbladet.se/nyheter/a/Jo ... -i-sverige


Each infected Swedish now infects 0.85 others.

The public health statistics show that Sweden's R-figure has been below 1.0 since April 21.

- If it is below 1.0, not every person is even infected, which means that the pandemic will gradually ebb, says state epidemiologist Anders Tegnell to SVT News.

The reproduction number for the corona virus in Sweden was 0.85 on April 25, according to calculations by the Public Health Authority. According to the authority, the R-number describes how many others an infected person in turn infects.

According to Anders Tegnell, the figure since April 21 was below 1.0 means that every ill person has not even infected another person. That the spread of infection no longer increases.

- We have been on R-numbers below 1.0 for a few weeks. It is just below, so there is no big difference but we are on a kind of plateau. But it is not going up anyway, and with this disease you have to see it as a positive sign, Tegnell tells SVT.

The highest R figure in Sweden was around the end of February and March. At that time, each covid-19 disease infected Swedish over three other persons, according to the calculations of the Public Health Authority.

In Norway, the country's counterpart to the Public Health Agency announced that the country had control over the corona spread when their R-figure was 0.7, writes SVT.

Thus, an R-count of 0.7 means that 100 corona patients infect 70 others, according to Reuters.

The news agency writes that the experts believe that an R-number above 1.0 makes it impossible for restrictions to be eased.
 
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Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - May 2020

Fri May 01, 2020 8:09 pm

your saying Noryway at 0.7 meaning that 100 corona patients infect 70 others
then Sweden 0.85 meaning that 100 corona patients infect 85 others.

why didn't you just say that?

Did you not want to draw attention that Norway, is in a better position than Sweden?
 
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Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - May 2020

Fri May 01, 2020 8:17 pm

olle wrote:
The "R" number is now considered to be 0.85 in Sweden;

https://www.aftonbladet.se/nyheter/a/Jo ... -i-sverige


Each infected Swedish now infects 0.85 others.

The public health statistics show that Sweden's R-figure has been below 1.0 since April 21.

- If it is below 1.0, not every person is even infected, which means that the pandemic will gradually ebb, says state epidemiologist Anders Tegnell to SVT News.

The reproduction number for the corona virus in Sweden was 0.85 on April 25, according to calculations by the Public Health Authority. According to the authority, the R-number describes how many others an infected person in turn infects.

According to Anders Tegnell, the figure since April 21 was below 1.0 means that every ill person has not even infected another person. That the spread of infection no longer increases.

- We have been on R-numbers below 1.0 for a few weeks. It is just below, so there is no big difference but we are on a kind of plateau. But it is not going up anyway, and with this disease you have to see it as a positive sign, Tegnell tells SVT.

The highest R figure in Sweden was around the end of February and March. At that time, each covid-19 disease infected Swedish over three other persons, according to the calculations of the Public Health Authority.

In Norway, the country's counterpart to the Public Health Agency announced that the country had control over the corona spread when their R-figure was 0.7, writes SVT.

Thus, an R-count of 0.7 means that 100 corona patients infect 70 others, according to Reuters.

The news agency writes that the experts believe that an R-number above 1.0 makes it impossible for restrictions to be eased.


Someone was arguing this is evidence the virus has mutated to be less effective at transmitting between people. I’m not sure that’s true. SARS did undergo a mutation which led to that happening so it’s not impossible to imagine this virus could as well
 
olle
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Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - May 2020

Fri May 01, 2020 8:28 pm

DLFREEBIRD wrote:
your saying Noryway at 0.7 meaning that 100 corona patients infect 70 others
then Sweden 0.85 meaning that 100 corona patients infect 85 others.

why didn't you just say that?

Did you not want to draw attention that Norway, is in a better position than Sweden?


This is the translation of the Swedish article. I only translate. Complain to the newspaper ;-)

Norway has been in total lock down. The chance that the second wave in October will become bad and a second lock down needed.

Sweden has taken a worse hit but might get a less bad second wave. If we live we all see the truth ;-)
 
DLFREEBIRD
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Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - May 2020

Fri May 01, 2020 8:44 pm

Viruses are always mutating, especially RNA viruses like this one. There is a thread here that explains that in very good detail.
 
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WarRI1
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Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - May 2020

Sat May 02, 2020 12:06 am

https://www.aol.com/article/news/2020/0 ... /24166307/


I did not see this if posted already.

I have to wonder what they are trying to hide or obfuscate in Florida. Guaranteed politics once again in a Red State that is trying to open up with bad figures still coming out.
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WarRI1
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Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - May 2020

Sat May 02, 2020 12:30 am

https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/white-h ... d=70464358

Another example of this crooked bunch trying to cover their asses while people get sick and die..
It is better to die on your feet, than live on your knees.
 
DLFREEBIRD
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Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - May 2020

Sat May 02, 2020 12:37 am

WarRI1 wrote:
https://www.aol.com/article/news/2020/05/01/florida-curtails-reporting-of-coronavirus-death-numbers-by-county-medical-examiners/24166307/


I did not see this if posted already.

I have to wonder what they are trying to hide or obfuscate in Florida. Guaranteed politics once again in a Red State that is trying to open up with bad figures still coming out.


I thought after they got rid of Scott, things would get better not worse.
 
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Aesma
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Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - May 2020

Sat May 02, 2020 1:22 am

About Luc Montagnier, he has lost his mind, a case of "Nobelite", when getting a Nobel makes you dumb.

He believes in stuff like the memory of water.

About ventilators, it doesn't get reported much, but from my understanding the focus on getting as many as possible, even makeshift ones, has completely changed. Now doctors would rather only get the most sophisticated ones, to be able to control precisely their air delivery, depending on the state of the patient's lungs. Most battery powered ventilators are useless for this.
New Technology is the name we give to stuff that doesn't work yet. Douglas Adams
 
speedking
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Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - May 2020

Sat May 02, 2020 2:21 am

DLFREEBIRD wrote:
WarRI1 wrote:
https://www.aol.com/article/news/2020/05/01/florida-curtails-reporting-of-coronavirus-death-numbers-by-county-medical-examiners/24166307/


I did not see this if posted already.

I have to wonder what they are trying to hide or obfuscate in Florida. Guaranteed politics once again in a Red State that is trying to open up with bad figures still coming out.


I thought after they got rid of Scott, things would get better not worse.


"Outbreak models' doomsday predictions were off by nearly 500,000 in Florida"

https://www.breitbart.com/politics/2020 ... n-florida/
 
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scbriml
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Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - May 2020

Sat May 02, 2020 8:23 am

speedking wrote:
"Outbreak models' doomsday predictions were off by nearly 500,000 in Florida"

https://www.breitbart.com/politics/2020 ... n-florida/


So Breitbart complains about the media "breathlessly hyping", while breathlessly hyping. :lol:
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Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - May 2020

Sat May 02, 2020 8:33 am

speedking wrote:
DLFREEBIRD wrote:
WarRI1 wrote:
https://www.aol.com/article/news/2020/05/01/florida-curtails-reporting-of-coronavirus-death-numbers-by-county-medical-examiners/24166307/


I did not see this if posted already.

I have to wonder what they are trying to hide or obfuscate in Florida. Guaranteed politics once again in a Red State that is trying to open up with bad figures still coming out.


I thought after they got rid of Scott, things would get better not worse.


"Outbreak models' doomsday predictions were off by nearly 500,000 in Florida"

https://www.breitbart.com/politics/2020 ... n-florida/

great, that means people are actually social distancing
Instead of typing in "mods", consider using the report function.
Love how every "travel blogger" says they will never fly AA/Ethihad again and then says it again and again on subsequent flights.
 
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stl07
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Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - May 2020

Sat May 02, 2020 8:37 am

trpmb6 wrote:
I still contend I have already had it. As well as all of my friends and coworkers who were all sick in late December early January to varying degrees with some reporting nothing more than a slight fever and mild cough to two people being hospitalized and put on oxygen with "viral pneumonia".

I think when we have widespread antibody testing we will find this virus spread far and wide way earlier than anyone previously thought.

You had that too! I was sick as shit around New Years and my friends and family made fun of me and called me a baby for the fact that I could not man up and stop complaining about a simple cold haha.
Instead of typing in "mods", consider using the report function.
Love how every "travel blogger" says they will never fly AA/Ethihad again and then says it again and again on subsequent flights.
 
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mad99
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Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - May 2020

Sat May 02, 2020 10:04 am

Day 48 of the lockdown here in Spain and now we can go outside to exercise 6:00 to 10:00 and 20:00 to 23:00

I’ll go for a run later to avoid the crowds
 
cskok8
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Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - May 2020

Sat May 02, 2020 10:42 am

casinterest wrote:
For those that doubt the veracity of the death rates in NYC take a look at this article.

https://www.wral.com/nyc-deaths-reach-s ... /19079670/

More than 27,000 New Yorkers have died since March 11 — 20,900 more than would be expected over this period and thousands more than have been captured by official coronavirus death statistics.

As of Sunday, the city had attributed 16,673 deaths to coronavirus, either because people had tested positive for the virus, or because the circumstances of their death meant that city health officials believed the virus to be the most likely cause of death.


Interesting article, and it will be interesting to see if other deaths are the cause , or if Coronavirus is being under counted.


Patients with non-Covid conditions may not get the treatment they need because hospitals are overwhelmed by Covid cases. On the other hand there will be fewer deaths from road accidents, assaults, shooting?
 
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Grizzly410
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Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - May 2020

Sat May 02, 2020 12:39 pm

mad99 wrote:
Day 48 of the lockdown here in Spain and now we can go outside to exercise 6:00 to 10:00 and 20:00 to 23:00

I’ll go for a run later to avoid the crowds


After the kids seeing daylight again, for sure that feels good to regain that simple freedom :relieved:

Can't wait for next opportunity to get out running for a while in the morning and bring home some churros on the way back. :wink2:
In order to be old and wise, one must first be young and dumb.
 
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Aesma
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Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - May 2020

Sat May 02, 2020 1:29 pm

The models used incomplete data and we knew it. One parameter is that coronavirus mutate all the time, changing their contagiosity, lethality, etc. So modelling that is quite tricky.
New Technology is the name we give to stuff that doesn't work yet. Douglas Adams
 
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casinterest
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Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - May 2020

Sat May 02, 2020 3:02 pm

cskok8 wrote:
casinterest wrote:
For those that doubt the veracity of the death rates in NYC take a look at this article.

https://www.wral.com/nyc-deaths-reach-s ... /19079670/

More than 27,000 New Yorkers have died since March 11 — 20,900 more than would be expected over this period and thousands more than have been captured by official coronavirus death statistics.

As of Sunday, the city had attributed 16,673 deaths to coronavirus, either because people had tested positive for the virus, or because the circumstances of their death meant that city health officials believed the virus to be the most likely cause of death.


Interesting article, and it will be interesting to see if other deaths are the cause , or if Coronavirus is being under counted.


Patients with non-Covid conditions may not get the treatment they need because hospitals are overwhelmed by Covid cases. On the other hand there will be fewer deaths from road accidents, assaults, shooting?



Yes, but all of those on a normal month of March would have been 6000-6200 people. Perhaps more died due to issues close to death, but then again Covid-19 has pushed those that may have been months or years out from a normal death into death.

Accidents,assaults and others have probably lessened, but we don't have those stats yet. We just know the raw numbers.
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Eyad89
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Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - May 2020

Sat May 02, 2020 6:10 pm

olle wrote:
The "R" number is now considered to be 0.85 in Sweden;

https://www.aftonbladet.se/nyheter/a/Jo ... -i-sverige


Each infected Swedish now infects 0.85 others.

The public health statistics show that Sweden's R-figure has been below 1.0 since April 21.

- If it is below 1.0, not every person is even infected, which means that the pandemic will gradually ebb, says state epidemiologist Anders Tegnell to SVT News.

The reproduction number for the corona virus in Sweden was 0.85 on April 25, according to calculations by the Public Health Authority. According to the authority, the R-number describes how many others an infected person in turn infects.

According to Anders Tegnell, the figure since April 21 was below 1.0 means that every ill person has not even infected another person. That the spread of infection no longer increases.

- We have been on R-numbers below 1.0 for a few weeks. It is just below, so there is no big difference but we are on a kind of plateau. But it is not going up anyway, and with this disease you have to see it as a positive sign, Tegnell tells SVT.

The highest R figure in Sweden was around the end of February and March. At that time, each covid-19 disease infected Swedish over three other persons, according to the calculations of the Public Health Authority.

In Norway, the country's counterpart to the Public Health Agency announced that the country had control over the corona spread when their R-figure was 0.7, writes SVT.

Thus, an R-count of 0.7 means that 100 corona patients infect 70 others, according to Reuters.

The news agency writes that the experts believe that an R-number above 1.0 makes it impossible for restrictions to be eased.



Having such a low R0 indicates that Sweden isn't going the herd immunity way as it's been told, otherwise the R0 number should go up. A decreasing R0 means their social distancing is working, my questions is how are they measuring R0 with such a low testing rate?
 
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Revelation
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Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - May 2020

Sat May 02, 2020 8:50 pm

64,283 - US fatalities from COVID-19 according to the CDC
Ref: https://www.reuters.com/article/uk-heal ... KKBN22E0RB

60,415 - US military fatalities in the Vietnam War
Ref: https://www.archives.gov/research/milit ... statistics

AirWorthy99 wrote:
So its no longer 'flatten the curve' we are not there yet is just a 'plateau'.

A flat curve just means similar number of (cases, deaths) yesterday and today.

It is not a sensible definition of 'there' unless you are happy to see deaths in a few months equal to a decade or so of US military deaths in the Vietnam War and that rate continuing onward without any abatement.

Even a decreasing count is not 'there' since it only happened because we quarantined.

'There' is when hospitals resume normal operations including restoring visiting hours, IMO.

That's the point at which we can be confident the hospitals can deal with a second wave if they need to.

Anything short of that is political gaslighting, IMO.
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AirWorthy99
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Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - May 2020

Sun May 03, 2020 1:11 am

Revelation wrote:
64,283 - US fatalities from COVID-19 according to the CDC
Ref: https://www.reuters.com/article/uk-heal ... KKBN22E0RB

60,415 - US military fatalities in the Vietnam War
Ref: https://www.archives.gov/research/milit ... statistics





Can't believe we are actually comparing a war that was a political decision that cost the lives of so many people with a virus that people and the government didn't chose to spread, unless we are to think that Coronavirus was a weapon by the CCP.

Revelation wrote:
AirWorthy99 wrote:
So its no longer 'flatten the curve' we are not there yet is just a 'plateau'.

A flat curve just means similar number of (cases, deaths) yesterday and today.

It is not a sensible definition of 'there' unless you are happy to see deaths in a few months equal to a decade or so of US military deaths in the Vietnam War and that rate continuing onward without any abatement.

Even a decreasing count is not 'there' since it only happened because we quarantined.

'There' is when hospitals resume normal operations including restoring visiting hours, IMO.

That's the point at which we can be confident the hospitals can deal with a second wave if they need to.

Anything short of that is political gaslighting, IMO.


We keep moving the goalposts, the MSM is doing a great job at keeping the panic going no matter the positive trends or projections, there is no absolute way the populace can see a light at the end of the tunnel. Many have become addicted to the panic porn and also publicly shaming those who don't fall for it.

Those supporting these petty tyrannies and governments led by power obsessed and attention addicted politicians need to keep fear and panic alive no matter what and for an indefinite time, since that's the entire point now. Coronavirus is going to stay around for 2 years (according to the leading expert) and there will be no good news till a vaccine comes out, but they don't say what's plan if it never comes out.

The bad news is that there will be spikes, people are going to keep dying and getting infected. So we will have to learn how to live with coronavirus, the same way we have learned to live with other viruses and illnesses. That's the sad truth and that's what has happened for the entire history of human civilization.

Never in the history of the earth have we ever stopped the clock for a virus. Never. Much less for a virus that only kills such a small percentage of the population, those with underlying illness and mostly one age group.

Stay home if you like, I don't need your permission or the government's to carry on with my life, work and do what I need to survive.
“It’s easy to confuse ‘what is’ with ‘what ought to be,’ especially when ‘what is’ has worked out in your favor.” Tyrion Lannister
 
Newark727
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Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - May 2020

Sun May 03, 2020 2:13 am

AirWorthy99 wrote:
Never in the history of the earth have we ever stopped the clock for a virus. Never. Much less for a virus that only kills such a small percentage of the population, those with underlying illness and mostly one age group.


A writing professor I had once told me to be careful with phrases like "never in the history of the earth." Before the advent of modern medicine, outbreaks of disease repeatedly reshaped entire societies, often to the point of destruction. Things are different now - but we consider them "acts of God" for a reason.

You might say this isn't germane to your point, and maybe it's not, but this virus has killed more Americans in three months than the Vietnam War did in ten years. The Vietnam War shaped politics for an entire generation - are you prepared to say everyone should have just gone on with their lives there too?
 
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Aaron747
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Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - May 2020

Sun May 03, 2020 3:16 am

AirWorthy99 wrote:
We keep moving the goalposts, the MSM is doing a great job at keeping the panic going no matter the positive trends or projections, there is no absolute way the populace can see a light at the end of the tunnel. Many have become addicted to the panic porn and also publicly shaming those who don't fall for it.

Those supporting these petty tyrannies and governments led by power obsessed and attention addicted politicians need to keep fear and panic alive no matter what and for an indefinite time, since that's the entire point now. Coronavirus is going to stay around for 2 years (according to the leading expert) and there will be no good news till a vaccine comes out, but they don't say what's plan if it never comes out.


This is pure partisan gaslighting divorced from facts. Revelation explained why your interpretation of ‘flatten the curve changed to plateau’ is wrong - but instead of responding to what a flattened curve really means you went on about ‘moved goalposts’ and right wing media nonsense about tyranny. This is not the DPRK - *nobody* is experiencing tyranny.

Although their economic preparation for this virus was inadequate, the WH is providing clear epidemiological information to states on how to gate and gauge reopening. Perhaps you should familiarize yourself with them. Basically, depending on local conditions, a non-critical care footing is required for hospitals, staff should be able to get tested, and there should be a 14-day period of statistical drawdown in both cases and symptomatic patients presenting for treatment. It’s quite clear.

Not completely understanding what’s going on doesn’t enhance the correctness of opinions.

https://www.whitehouse.gov/openingamerica/
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Francoflier
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Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - May 2020

Sun May 03, 2020 3:55 am

Newark727 wrote:
AirWorthy99 wrote:
Never in the history of the earth have we ever stopped the clock for a virus. Never. Much less for a virus that only kills such a small percentage of the population, those with underlying illness and mostly one age group.


A writing professor I had once told me to be careful with phrases like "never in the history of the earth." Before the advent of modern medicine, outbreaks of disease repeatedly reshaped entire societies, often to the point of destruction. Things are different now - but we consider them "acts of God" for a reason.

You might say this isn't germane to your point, and maybe it's not, but this virus has killed more Americans in three months than the Vietnam War did in ten years. The Vietnam War shaped politics for an entire generation - are you prepared to say everyone should have just gone on with their lives there too?


The Vietnam war comparison is a bit out there. I know that figures are similar now so it's made the news and people throw it around...
The difference is that the Vietnam war was purely an intentional event, unlike a viral outbreak, and it killed thousands of young healthy men without a good reason.

If we compare 'natural' catastrophes, this would be closer to earthquakes or intense weather events, i.e. the other 'Acts of God'.
A closer comparison, right now, would be the 2004 Tsunami in the Indian Ocean, which killed over 220,000. The virus has now surpassed that and will keep on killing.

But I can't say that AirWorthy99 or others are wrong. The focus is firmly on the numbers, and yes, they look bad. But preventing people from living something close to a normal life will also have extremely dire consequences, which we cannot forecast.

The problem is that no one is offering a way out. The US' numbers have seem to plateau and are showing no sign of going down. No one can say whether the lockdowns will eventually be effective, and for how long they will need to be kept. The only thing the medical authorities can tell us is to wait for X to happen, without even an approximate forecast of when that might be.
While I am not saying they are wrong, their only focus is the direct effect of the virus, not the overall effect of the measures they recommend on society at large. The misery caused by the millions losing their jobs, savings, homes, etc, is not a concern of theirs.

On the other hand, the virus will not disappear no matter how long we keep the lockdowns. In fact, 'flattening the curve' extends the length of the outbreak event without necessarily decreasing the overall number of victims. It does help hospitals cope with the influx and allow them to treat patients earlier and better, giving them a better chance.

Some parts of the country, along with many parts of the World, are at that stage already. While it is too early for some areas such as New York in the US or other places currently experiencing uncontrolled spread such as Russia, in many other places where hospitals are half-empty due to not enough Covid patients and the regular ones not showing up due to generalized fear and panic, it is time to take a step back, look at the bigger picture, especially the fires that are spreading elsewhere, and start worrying about those.

The goal is to find a way to cope with the outbreak as best as we can while not allowing society to collapse while we wait for a cure/vaccine.
This sounds cynical to many, but the truth is that we now have to live with it and the increased death toll, whether we like it or not.
The good new is, there are ways of attenuating the spread of the disease while allowing a degree of normalcy. Testing comes first and foremost in that aspect, especially cheap and fast testing.
Those most at risk are generally not part of the active population. Protecting the more vulnerable means that those younger and active, with families to feed and bills to pay, could potentially continue to work and avoid losing everything and years of depressing hardship.

In the spirit of this website, even travel could restart in a limited fashion, provided every pax is tested while departing and arriving, at their cost. The logistics would be heavy and cumbersome, but it would allow to restart some travel while greatly decreasing the risk of importation/exportation of the virus, to save some jobs and to allow for the gathering of crucial data as testing all travelers would provide for a true randomized sampling of the 'healthy' population, thus allowing to understand the true spread of the virus.
This probably won't happen until the hysteria dies down a bit and we begin to understand that we will not eradicate this with lockdowns . We will need to live with this for a while. And by living I mean not shutting down the planet, to unimaginable long term consequences. I have come to realize that it's always easier for those who risk losing little through this to advocate long duration harsh measures.

The fact is, we need to start to look for solutions other than the heavy-footed approach. Locking everyone at home works and helps initially, but it's a bit like burning the house to get rid of the rats.
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Aaron747
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Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - May 2020

Sun May 03, 2020 5:51 am

^ You are absolutely right that testing is key to going into a next phase without mitigation that damages the economy. The problem here in the states is we’re still not ready to deploy a consistent volume of testing and tracing due to leadership vacuum and values differences between states. Somehow we were told in early March ‘anyone who needs a test can get one’ - businesses and medical professionals are still waiting for that reality.
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AirWorthy99
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Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - May 2020

Sun May 03, 2020 2:00 pm

Newark727 wrote:
AirWorthy99 wrote:
Never in the history of the earth have we ever stopped the clock for a virus. Never. Much less for a virus that only kills such a small percentage of the population, those with underlying illness and mostly one age group.


A writing professor I had once told me to be careful with phrases like "never in the history of the earth." Before the advent of modern medicine, outbreaks of disease repeatedly reshaped entire societies, often to the point of destruction. Things are different now - but we consider them "acts of God" for a reason.

You might say this isn't germane to your point, and maybe it's not, but this virus has killed more Americans in three months than the Vietnam War did in ten years. The Vietnam War shaped politics for an entire generation - are you prepared to say everyone should have just gone on with their lives there too?


We had the Cholera in 1832
Scarlet fever
Typhoid Mary
Spanish flu
HIV epidemic
https://www.healthline.com/health/worst ... history#16

And never did this. Of course circumstances, global events and issues shape society. No doubt.
Aaron747 wrote:
AirWorthy99 wrote:
We keep moving the goalposts, the MSM is doing a great job at keeping the panic going no matter the positive trends or projections, there is no absolute way the populace can see a light at the end of the tunnel. Many have become addicted to the panic porn and also publicly shaming those who don't fall for it.

Those supporting these petty tyrannies and governments led by power obsessed and attention addicted politicians need to keep fear and panic alive no matter what and for an indefinite time, since that's the entire point now. Coronavirus is going to stay around for 2 years (according to the leading expert) and there will be no good news till a vaccine comes out, but they don't say what's plan if it never comes out.


This is pure partisan gaslighting divorced from facts. Revelation explained why your interpretation of ‘flatten the curve changed to plateau’ is wrong - but instead of responding to what a flattened curve really means you went on about ‘moved goalposts’ and right wing media nonsense about tyranny. This is not the DPRK - *nobody* is experiencing tyranny.

Although their economic preparation for this virus was inadequate, the WH is providing clear epidemiological information to states on how to gate and gauge reopening. Perhaps you should familiarize yourself with them. Basically, depending on local conditions, a non-critical care footing is required for hospitals, staff should be able to get tested, and there should be a 14-day period of statistical drawdown in both cases and symptomatic patients presenting for treatment. It’s quite clear.

Not completely understanding what’s going on doesn’t enhance the correctness of opinions.

https://www.whitehouse.gov/openingamerica/


Not completely understanding that the 'experts' don't completely understand COVID (yet) and have for the past months controlled our lives based on completely flawed models, is ignoring reality to say the least.

And yes we have had petty tyranny for some time now, un-elected people controlling the lives of millions.

The fact that you live in a state where your governor without no reason other than political, decides to close beaches in an area that opposes him (Orange county) but leaves open another (San Diego) shows how far we have come. Michigan a governor who says, you can buy weed but can't buy SOD grass, others who say you can get an abortion but not your scheduled elective medical operation. Diblasio who decides to scapegoat on Jews by publicly calling them out and shaming them directly, that's where we are.

Before all of this, these politicians had zero power and almost no influence in absolutely nothing. They love the power, they love the attention, and as I told you before when you told me it was 'temporary', they won't cede this new found power that easily. And I am proving correct again this time.

The truth of the matter is, if all individuals exercise caution, wash their hands, wear mask, 6 feet distance, etc, the spread will be under control. If those who are vulnerable stay in, they won't be affected.

It began with 15 days, then 30 days, and it keeps going. Thankfully for me, I live in a state where the governor is a common sense one, and yes he is applying the WH guidelines, in fact a bit more conservative since he is keeping cinemas, gyms and barbershops closed.

Again as I said, we need to learn to live with COVID, it will be a new way of life for some time, after it's gone I am sure we will go back to normal, but we need to carry on, and I agree it will be a different way for the time being.
“It’s easy to confuse ‘what is’ with ‘what ought to be,’ especially when ‘what is’ has worked out in your favor.” Tyrion Lannister
 
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Revelation
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Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - May 2020

Sun May 03, 2020 2:25 pm

AirWorthy99 wrote:
Can't believe we are actually comparing a war that was a political decision that cost the lives of so many people with a virus that people and the government didn't chose to spread, unless we are to think that Coronavirus was a weapon by the CCP.

I'm just comparing the body count, not the cause/effect.

AirWorthy99 wrote:
We keep moving the goalposts, the MSM is doing a great job at keeping the panic going no matter the positive trends or projections, there is no absolute way the populace can see a light at the end of the tunnel. Many have become addicted to the panic porn and also publicly shaming those who don't fall for it.

The main goal of quarantine has been to limit the spread of the virus so hospitals can cope with victims and so we can have the time to ramp up testing and increase production of PPE so people can hope to cope with the virus moving forward. Unfortunately I don't think we're there yet on rate of spread, testing or PPE.

The people moving the goalposts are the ones who put money over health and keep pulling the goalposts in regardless of the nation's ability to cope with the virus.

If you don't understand the panic, you're admitting you can't look at a graph and understand what it means. Sorry if that comes across as shaming, but that's the truth.

AirWorthy99 wrote:
The bad news is that there will be spikes, people are going to keep dying and getting infected. So we will have to learn how to live with coronavirus, the same way we have learned to live with other viruses and illnesses. That's the sad truth and that's what has happened for the entire history of human civilization.

Fine. Let's see our leaders do their job and help get us the tools we need to cope with the virus. At least they moved off denial, now let's see them do something about coping with the virus.

AirWorthy99 wrote:
Stay home if you like, I don't need your permission or the government's to carry on with my life, work and do what I need to survive.

So it's not about the MSM, you've already made up your mind to put your perceived needs above everyone you come in contact with. Hope you don't end up in the position of giving the virus to a loved one.

Aaron747 wrote:
^ You are absolutely right that testing is key to going into a next phase without mitigation that damages the economy. The problem here in the states is we’re still not ready to deploy a consistent volume of testing and tracing due to leadership vacuum and values differences between states. Somehow we were told in early March ‘anyone who needs a test can get one’ - businesses and medical professionals are still waiting for that reality.

As above, I think we also need leadership on producing PPE. I think for the next two years we're going to need to be wearing surgical grade cloth masks in public. I don't see any initiative on the part of our government to produce such. The home made cloth masks are next to worthless but they make people feel good that they're doing "something" like making sure they have plenty of toilet paper.

And no, this is not "moving the goalposts". Thing is we've never lived through a major pandemic, and it's clear no one has done much thought or preparation about how to live through one, and those who have were largely ignored by those who put money ahead of health.
Wake up to find out that you are the eyes of the world
The heart has its beaches, its homeland and thoughts of its own
Wake now, discover that you are the song that the morning brings
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Aaron747
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Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - May 2020

Sun May 03, 2020 2:43 pm

AirWorthy99 wrote:
Not completely understanding that the 'experts' don't completely understand COVID (yet) and have for the past months controlled our lives based on completely flawed models, is ignoring reality to say the least...

...The truth of the matter is, if all individuals exercise caution, wash their hands, wear mask, 6 feet distance, etc, the spread will be under control. If those who are vulnerable stay in, they won't be affected.

It began with 15 days, then 30 days, and it keeps going. Thankfully for me, I live in a state where the governor is a common sense one, and yes he is applying the WH guidelines, in fact a bit more conservative since he is keeping cinemas, gyms and barbershops closed.


You put experts in quotes, which shows you still disrespect what it is they actually do. And you continue to harp on about flawed models, which shows you don't understand the scientific process of inquiry, revision of estimates, and ongoing analysis. That's the nature of science - constantly testing and retesting your own theories to prove them wrong - until what's left is the facts.

Not even going to bother to respond to your partisan ranting, because this thread is about the coronavirus and its response, not your political beefs with governors in states you don't live in.

AirWorthy99 wrote:
As I said, we need to learn to live with COVID, it will be a new way of life for some time, after it's gone I am sure we will go back to normal, but we need to carry on, and I agree it will be a different way for the time being.


I'll ask again, since you didn't respond to the White House guidelines for re-opening. And if you didn't read them, I'll quote here for you on one of the key recommendations:

https://www.whitehouse.gov/openingamerica/#criteria

Under their re-opening criteria for 'Symptoms':

Downward trajectory of documented cases within a 14-day period

OR

Downward trajectory of positive tests as a percent of total tests within a 14-day period (flat or increasing volume of tests)


And under their re-opening criteria for 'Cases':

Downward trajectory of documented cases within a 14-day period

OR

Downward trajectory of positive tests as a percent of total tests within a 14-day period (flat or increasing volume of tests)


You claimed above that if people simply wash hands, exercise caution, and keep 6-foot distance, all will be hunky-dory with the spread. If that's true, then lots of states should be ready to reopen. Oh oops, according to the WH criteria above compared against the data below, we're nowhere near ready. These graphs make the situation abundantly clear. I don't see two weeks of 'downward trajectory of cases', do you??

Image

https://twitter.com/DrEricDing/status/1 ... 2081866753
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mad99
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Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - May 2020

Sun May 03, 2020 2:45 pm

Grizzly410 wrote:
mad99 wrote:
Day 48 of the lockdown here in Spain and now we can go outside to exercise 6:00 to 10:00 and 20:00 to 23:00

I’ll go for a run later to avoid the crowds


After the kids seeing daylight again, for sure that feels good to regain that simple freedom :relieved:

Can't wait for next opportunity to get out running for a while in the morning and bring home some churros on the way back. :wink2:



I think we’re a few weeks away from churros

Here in Spain the death and infections continue to drop with today’s numbers lowest yet

Closing the parks and limiting is putting a lot of people together without respecting distance rules
 
AirWorthy99
Posts: 1054
Joined: Thu Jan 09, 2020 7:57 pm

Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - May 2020

Sun May 03, 2020 2:46 pm

Revelation wrote:

I'm just comparing the body count, not the cause/effect.


Why not compare it with other health crisis or nature made phenomenons then? Vietnam war was a decision made by men, inside meeting rooms. I see where you are going, with the comparison and its putting a political undertone to it.

Revelation wrote:

The main goal of quarantine has been to limit the spread of the virus so hospitals can cope with victims and so we can have the time to ramp up testing and increase production of PPE so people can hope to cope with the virus moving forward. Unfortunately I don't think we're there yet on rate of spread, testing or PPE.

The people moving the goalposts are the ones who put money over health and keep pulling the goalposts in regardless of the nation's ability to cope with the virus.

If you don't understand the panic, you're admitting you can't look at a graph and understand what it means. Sorry if that comes across as shaming, but that's the truth.


Putting money over health? You have now hospitals going bankrupt, medical professionals going without a job, because people aren't just too afraid to get medical care. The sad fact, and I don't wish to be rude, everything in the world is about money except the love you have for your family and friends. Hospitals run because of money, here in the US and also in Europe. If not try and find medical care in a poor 3rd world country.

The fact is, based on data, hospitals never reached a level of stress and weren't close on reaching capacity, no where. There was a lack of PPE, but that seems to have been resolved in most parts.


Revelation wrote:

Fine. Let's see our leaders do their job and help get us the tools we need to cope with the virus. At least they moved off denial, now let's see them do something about coping with the virus.


I am glad we can agree to that, and we can therefore understand that hiding under a cave is unsustainable and unreachable goal.

Revelation wrote:

So it's not about the MSM, you've already made up your mind to put your perceived needs above everyone you come in contact with. Hope you don't end up in the position of giving the virus to a loved one.


The fact is, that those who are vulnerable are going to get into contact with those who are not. Either they will need to feed them, provide services and such. Those who are vulnerable will be left with two options, starving to death so they not get into contact with those who are not vulnerable, or risk it with people who have taken their precautions. I think we can agree they will risk it.

Those of us who are not vulnerable we will take the risk for them, and most of us are going to contract COVID, and the vast majority of us will survive. Let us not avoid the facts and reality and stop telling those who see the facts and reality that they don't care about human life.

I care so much about life that I have kids, you may have kids or know people with kids, you would love for them to have a free and prosperous society moving forward. If I am 80 years old and have lived my life, the least I would want is for those growing up to have the same or better quality of life I had.

That's the way the world has worked for hundreds of years. We can't just change that mentality over COVID.
“It’s easy to confuse ‘what is’ with ‘what ought to be,’ especially when ‘what is’ has worked out in your favor.” Tyrion Lannister
 
AirWorthy99
Posts: 1054
Joined: Thu Jan 09, 2020 7:57 pm

Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - May 2020

Sun May 03, 2020 2:56 pm

Aaron747 wrote:

I'll ask again, since you didn't respond to the White House guidelines for re-opening. And if you didn't read them, I'll quote here for you on one of the key recommendations:

https://www.whitehouse.gov/openingamerica/#criteria

Under their re-opening criteria for 'Symptoms':

Downward trajectory of documented cases within a 14-day period

OR

Downward trajectory of positive tests as a percent of total tests within a 14-day period (flat or increasing volume of tests)


And under their re-opening criteria for 'Cases':

Downward trajectory of documented cases within a 14-day period

OR

Downward trajectory of positive tests as a percent of total tests within a 14-day period (flat or increasing volume of tests)


You claimed above that if people simply wash hands, exercise caution, and keep 6-foot distance, all will be hunky-dory with the spread. If that's true, then lots of states should be ready to reopen. Oh oops, according to the WH criteria above compared against the data below, we're nowhere near ready. These graphs make the situation abundantly clear. I don't see two weeks of 'downward trajectory of cases', do you??

Image

https://twitter.com/DrEricDing/status/1 ... 2081866753


In many states testing has ramped up, of course cases are going to go up if you increase testing.

However, what do you want me to tell you? people hunkered down for weeks, they became tired of staying in doors for so long, they started going out and yes its unavoidable people are going to get more infected once restrictions ease up.

But you need to let people be free and take the risks. Be responsible for their actions, pay the price of their actions.

Government intervention in fully closing the economy in this crisis has made it a lot worse, you got 30 million, yes 30 million people without jobs and an uncertain future, that's millions of children going hungry possibly. Hospitals, health care professionals without jobs. That's a very bad indirect hit coronavirus has done to the country.

We are going to have to let people carry on with coronavirus, and yes cases will spike, and yes people will die unfortunately. And as I said before, that's the way we will reach herd inmmunity. And that will be the ultimate way to normalcy. Whether or not we will reach it with a vaccine that's still in the air.

If you keep pointing out that people getting infected is a reason to keep these draconian measures moving forward, we will be going on with this for 2 years at the very least. And that's an unsustainable goal here and in any country in the world.

Face it, people are going to keep getting infected, allow this to happen without affecting hospital capacity, and infecting those who are more prone to die from coronavirus. That's what we will have to accept in the end.

I know most of you work from home or have good essential jobs, the vast majority of the world don't have that luxury.
“It’s easy to confuse ‘what is’ with ‘what ought to be,’ especially when ‘what is’ has worked out in your favor.” Tyrion Lannister
 
User avatar
Aaron747
Posts: 11806
Joined: Thu Aug 07, 2003 2:07 am

Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - May 2020

Sun May 03, 2020 3:28 pm

AirWorthy99 wrote:
Aaron747 wrote:

I'll ask again, since you didn't respond to the White House guidelines for re-opening. And if you didn't read them, I'll quote here for you on one of the key recommendations:

https://www.whitehouse.gov/openingamerica/#criteria

Under their re-opening criteria for 'Symptoms':

Downward trajectory of documented cases within a 14-day period

OR

Downward trajectory of positive tests as a percent of total tests within a 14-day period (flat or increasing volume of tests)


And under their re-opening criteria for 'Cases':

Downward trajectory of documented cases within a 14-day period

OR

Downward trajectory of positive tests as a percent of total tests within a 14-day period (flat or increasing volume of tests)


You claimed above that if people simply wash hands, exercise caution, and keep 6-foot distance, all will be hunky-dory with the spread. If that's true, then lots of states should be ready to reopen. Oh oops, according to the WH criteria above compared against the data below, we're nowhere near ready. These graphs make the situation abundantly clear. I don't see two weeks of 'downward trajectory of cases', do you??

Image

https://twitter.com/DrEricDing/status/1 ... 2081866753


If you keep pointing out that people getting infected is a reason to keep these draconian measures moving forward, we will be going on with this for 2 years at the very least. And that's an unsustainable goal here and in any country in the world...

...I know most of you work from home or have good essential jobs, the vast majority of the world don't have that luxury.


I’m just saying what the WH guidelines are - and that according to them, a lot of places are not ready to reopen. Doing so will also have unintended economic risk.

As to your concern for the impact on many people, as I said in the other thread, if you care that much you should be on the phone to our leaders daily to swiftly enact assistance to those most vulnerable. If you compare the small business rescue loan process in Canada to the US, it’s obvious somebody screwed the pooch on our side. And don’t act like those of us in industries that are okay don’t care - our local winery investment group raised over $200K in just a couple days to ensure over 50 vulnerable employees would be able to cover rent for at least 3 months.
If you need someone to blame / throw a rock in the air / you'll hit someone guilty
 
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scbriml
Posts: 18977
Joined: Wed Jul 02, 2003 10:37 pm

Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - May 2020

Sun May 03, 2020 3:59 pm

AirWorthy99 wrote:
Why not compare it with other health crisis or nature made phenomenons then? Vietnam war was a decision made by men, inside meeting rooms. I see where you are going, with the comparison and its putting a political undertone to it.


It’s just for perspective, nobody is directly comparing a pandemic to a war.
Time flies like an arrow. Fruit flies like a banana!
There are 10 types of people in the World - those that understand binary and those that don't.
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