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Olddog
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Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - May 2020

Sun May 03, 2020 4:02 pm

The main problem is that we don't know yet if there is any level of immunity when you met the virus
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StarAC17
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Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - May 2020

Sun May 03, 2020 5:18 pm

AirWorthy99 wrote:
Revelation wrote:
64,283 - US fatalities from COVID-19 according to the CDC
Ref: https://www.reuters.com/article/uk-heal ... KKBN22E0RB

60,415 - US military fatalities in the Vietnam War
Ref: https://www.archives.gov/research/milit ... statistics





Can't believe we are actually comparing a war that was a political decision that cost the lives of so many people with a virus that people and the government didn't chose to spread, unless we are to think that Coronavirus was a weapon by the CCP.

Revelation wrote:
AirWorthy99 wrote:
So its no longer 'flatten the curve' we are not there yet is just a 'plateau'.

A flat curve just means similar number of (cases, deaths) yesterday and today.

It is not a sensible definition of 'there' unless you are happy to see deaths in a few months equal to a decade or so of US military deaths in the Vietnam War and that rate continuing onward without any abatement.

Even a decreasing count is not 'there' since it only happened because we quarantined.

'There' is when hospitals resume normal operations including restoring visiting hours, IMO.

That's the point at which we can be confident the hospitals can deal with a second wave if they need to.

Anything short of that is political gaslighting, IMO.


We keep moving the goalposts, the MSM is doing a great job at keeping the panic going no matter the positive trends or projections, there is no absolute way the populace can see a light at the end of the tunnel. Many have become addicted to the panic porn and also publicly shaming those who don't fall for it.

Those supporting these petty tyrannies and governments led by power obsessed and attention addicted politicians need to keep fear and panic alive no matter what and for an indefinite time, since that's the entire point now. Coronavirus is going to stay around for 2 years (according to the leading expert) and there will be no good news till a vaccine comes out, but they don't say what's plan if it never comes out.

The bad news is that there will be spikes, people are going to keep dying and getting infected. So we will have to learn how to live with coronavirus, the same way we have learned to live with other viruses and illnesses. That's the sad truth and that's what has happened for the entire history of human civilization.

Never in the history of the earth have we ever stopped the clock for a virus. Never. Much less for a virus that only kills such a small percentage of the population, those with underlying illness and mostly one age group.

Stay home if you like, I don't need your permission or the government's to carry on with my life, work and do what I need to survive.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=28I5WyLp15o

I like Bill Maher's take on this from Friday.

Olddog wrote:
The main problem is that we don't know yet if there is any level of immunity when you met the virus


Read Doc's posts in his Virology thread and in the April thread. I have never met him but I trust more about what he is saying that what I hear and read in the media.

The 4 endemic coronaviruses that we deal with that cause the common cold all provide some degree of immunity for 1 to 2 years. Unless shown otherwise this should be no different and the idea that you can't be reinfected is not the right question to ask. Are these people sick and contagious, that is the question that should be asked. These tests are also likely picking up pieces of the RNA from the original infection or subsequent exposure.

When you get exposed to a viral infection you are immune to (lets say chickenpox) to the virus still has to replicate in the body to an extent that the immune system is alerted to the its presence. It then recognizes the infection and uses T-cells and/or antibodies to squash the infection before you actually get sick. Getting sick is your body's response and not the virus itself, the General public and the media does not say this at all and they should.
I used chickenpox as a stable viral infection that you should get lifetime immunity if you got it or are vaccinated for it.

With a virus like the flu or the common cold its not the immune system that is losing the immunity it is the rapid changing of the virus that evades the immune response. COVID-19 is apparently more stable than the flu meaning that a vaccine or natural immunity should last longer.
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Jalap
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Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - May 2020

Sun May 03, 2020 5:41 pm

olle wrote:
Sweden has taken a worse hit but might get a less bad second wave. If we live we all see the truth ;-)

That is, assuming herd immunity is responsible for the lower R.
If this is the case, then it’ll be very interesting to see the studies that explain why so many Swedes could get infected with such a low death rate.
For it is very clear that death rate in other countries is far higher.

Something we can’t answer today.
 
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Tugger
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Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - May 2020

Sun May 03, 2020 5:56 pm

scbriml wrote:
AirWorthy99 wrote:
Why not compare it with other health crisis or nature made phenomenons then? Vietnam war was a decision made by men, inside meeting rooms. I see where you are going, with the comparison and its putting a political undertone to it.


It’s just for perspective, nobody is directly comparing a pandemic to a war.

:checkmark:

Here's another perspective for those insisting to "open right away": Would you support giving everyone a knife and we are to stab two out of every 100 people we meet?

That is basically what is being advocated.

I am all for ending the shut down and doing so soon as possible, but it needs to be done smartly and with properr public understandinng and participation so wee don't end up "randomly hurting people".

Tugg
I don’t know that I am unafraid to be myself, but it is hard to be somebody else. - W. Shatner
There are many kinds of sentences that we think state facts about the world but that are really just expressions of our attitudes. - F. Ramsey
 
olle
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Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - May 2020

Sun May 03, 2020 6:02 pm

Jalap wrote:
olle wrote:
Sweden has taken a worse hit but might get a less bad second wave. If we live we all see the truth ;-)

That is, assuming herd immunity is responsible for the lower R.
If this is the case, then it’ll be very interesting to see the studies that explain why so many Swedes could get infected with such a low death rate.
For it is very clear that death rate in other countries is far higher.

Something we can’t answer today.


What all countries are doing is a gamble.

What we can assume is that south america and Australia will enter colder weather and probably get the first real wave of corona right now.

In the north, Europe, China and North america there will probably come a second wave in october.

Whaty will then be the reactions? Another lockdown? Or will the reaction be a lockdown for older people 70+ and risk groups? By the way overweight and smoking seems to be a major risk. Must be problematic special in USA.
 
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Aaron747
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Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - May 2020

Sun May 03, 2020 6:02 pm

Tugger wrote:
scbriml wrote:
AirWorthy99 wrote:
Why not compare it with other health crisis or nature made phenomenons then? Vietnam war was a decision made by men, inside meeting rooms. I see where you are going, with the comparison and its putting a political undertone to it.


It’s just for perspective, nobody is directly comparing a pandemic to a war.

:checkmark:

Here's another perspective for those insisting to "open right away": Would you support giving everyone a knife and we are to stab two out of every 100 people we meet?

That is basically what is being advocated.

I am all for ending the shut down and doing so soon as possible, but it needs to be done smartly and with properr public understandinng and participation so wee don't end up "randomly hurting people".

Tugg


Half the signs say ‘I need a haircut!’ - which doesn’t even make sense. If these lardasses had any common sense, they could get in front of a mirror with scissors like lots of people have done.
If you need someone to blame / throw a rock in the air / you'll hit someone guilty
 
frmrCapCadet
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Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - May 2020

Sun May 03, 2020 6:20 pm

Shingles - Symptoms and causes - Mayo Clinicwww.mayoclinic.org › symptoms-causes › syc-20353054
May 16, 2018 - Shingles affects the nerves Shingles is caused by the varicella-zoster virus — the same virus that causes chickenpox. Anyone who's had chickenpox may develop shingles. After you recover from chickenpox, the virus can enter your nervous system and lie dormant for years.


Chicken Pox is a far better example than posters seem to have imagined. Temporary immunity can have all sorts of time gaps. HIV also hides dormant after certain medications, but it is not a cure. For CORVID-19 it remains an unknown.
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Revelation
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Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - May 2020

Sun May 03, 2020 7:13 pm

AirWorthy99 wrote:
Revelation wrote:
I'm just comparing the body count, not the cause/effect.

Why not compare it with other health crisis or nature made phenomenons then? Vietnam war was a decision made by men, inside meeting rooms. I see where you are going, with the comparison and its putting a political undertone to it.

You are revealing how you see the world. I told you what I did and why, you decided I must have a political motivation just because you see a political undertone. That's on you, not on me. Heck, if I had a political motivation I'd pick something other than a war largely started by Democrats and largely ended by Republicans.
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scbriml
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Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - May 2020

Sun May 03, 2020 9:22 pm

frmrCapCadet wrote:
Shingles - Symptoms and causes - Mayo Clinicwww.mayoclinic.org › symptoms-causes › syc-20353054
May 16, 2018 - Shingles affects the nerves Shingles is caused by the varicella-zoster virus — the same virus that causes chickenpox. Anyone who's had chickenpox may develop shingles. After you recover from chickenpox, the virus can enter your nervous system and lie dormant for years.


Chicken Pox is a far better example than posters seem to have imagined. Temporary immunity can have all sorts of time gaps. HIV also hides dormant after certain medications, but it is not a cure. For CORVID-19 it remains an unknown.


:checkmark:

I had chickenpox as a child and developed shingles on my back as an adult. No fun.
Time flies like an arrow. Fruit flies like a banana!
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GDB
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Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - May 2020

Sun May 03, 2020 10:02 pm

scbriml wrote:
frmrCapCadet wrote:
Shingles - Symptoms and causes - Mayo Clinicwww.mayoclinic.org › symptoms-causes › syc-20353054
May 16, 2018 - Shingles affects the nerves Shingles is caused by the varicella-zoster virus — the same virus that causes chickenpox. Anyone who's had chickenpox may develop shingles. After you recover from chickenpox, the virus can enter your nervous system and lie dormant for years.


Chicken Pox is a far better example than posters seem to have imagined. Temporary immunity can have all sorts of time gaps. HIV also hides dormant after certain medications, but it is not a cure. For CORVID-19 it remains an unknown.


:checkmark:

I had chickenpox as a child and developed shingles on my back as an adult. No fun.


I never had chickenpox as a child, had to wait until 19 for that particular pleasure!
Nor Mumps either. Still haven't.
(Bollocks to getting that as an adult!)
 
speedking
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Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - May 2020

Sun May 03, 2020 10:45 pm

Aaron747 wrote:
Tugger wrote:
scbriml wrote:

It’s just for perspective, nobody is directly comparing a pandemic to a war.

:checkmark:

Here's another perspective for those insisting to "open right away": Would you support giving everyone a knife and we are to stab two out of every 100 people we meet?

That is basically what is being advocated.

I am all for ending the shut down and doing so soon as possible, but it needs to be done smartly and with properr public understandinng and participation so wee don't end up "randomly hurting people".

Tugg


Half the signs say ‘I need a haircut!’ - which doesn’t even make sense. If these lardasses had any common sense, they could get in front of a mirror with scissors like lots of people have done.


If I need to choose between letting 2 out of 100 lardasses, granddads (mine or others) or people with pre-existing conditions etc. die if it saves my kids from starvation, my choice is clear. Even I can go to the front to take my chances. Would you?
 
AirWorthy99
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Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - May 2020

Sun May 03, 2020 11:00 pm

Revelation wrote:
AirWorthy99 wrote:
Revelation wrote:
I'm just comparing the body count, not the cause/effect.

Why not compare it with other health crisis or nature made phenomenons then? Vietnam war was a decision made by men, inside meeting rooms. I see where you are going, with the comparison and its putting a political undertone to it.

You are revealing how you see the world. I told you what I did and why, you decided I must have a political motivation just because you see a political undertone. That's on you, not on me. Heck, if I had a political motivation I'd pick something other than a war largely started by Democrats and largely ended by Republicans.


Fine. I might have misunderstood you intentions here. In any case, these comparison have been going on for some time now, mostly thrown out there to criticize Trump. He deserves the criticism for the initial response, but I am sure other kind of comparisons can be made in regards to the handling of this. A foreign war is kid of too out there, even if you disagree with this administration and agree on putting some blame on their response.
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Aaron747
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Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - May 2020

Sun May 03, 2020 11:20 pm

speedking wrote:
Aaron747 wrote:
Tugger wrote:
:checkmark:

Here's another perspective for those insisting to "open right away": Would you support giving everyone a knife and we are to stab two out of every 100 people we meet?

That is basically what is being advocated.

I am all for ending the shut down and doing so soon as possible, but it needs to be done smartly and with properr public understandinng and participation so wee don't end up "randomly hurting people".

Tugg


Half the signs say ‘I need a haircut!’ - which doesn’t even make sense. If these lardasses had any common sense, they could get in front of a mirror with scissors like lots of people have done.


If I need to choose between letting 2 out of 100 lardasses, granddads (mine or others) or people with pre-existing conditions etc. die if it saves my kids from starvation, my choice is clear. Even I can go to the front to take my chances. Would you?


It’s a false equivalency and a non starter. Mass starvation should never come to pass for these reasons in the wealthiest nation in Earth’s history. If that occurs, it’s because economic mitigation failed where authorities knew health mitigation was needed. That’s on Washington, not me (or you). These impacts, even knowing the situation is temporary, were all foreseeable to any economist. Leadership counts in crisis.
If you need someone to blame / throw a rock in the air / you'll hit someone guilty
 
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Aaron747
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Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - May 2020

Sun May 03, 2020 11:53 pm

AirWorthy99 wrote:
Revelation wrote:
AirWorthy99 wrote:
Why not compare it with other health crisis or nature made phenomenons then? Vietnam war was a decision made by men, inside meeting rooms. I see where you are going, with the comparison and its putting a political undertone to it.

You are revealing how you see the world. I told you what I did and why, you decided I must have a political motivation just because you see a political undertone. That's on you, not on me. Heck, if I had a political motivation I'd pick something other than a war largely started by Democrats and largely ended by Republicans.


Fine. I might have misunderstood you intentions here. In any case, these comparison have been going on for some time now, mostly thrown out there to criticize Trump. He deserves the criticism for the initial response, but I am sure other kind of comparisons can be made in regards to the handling of this. A foreign war is kid of too out there, even if you disagree with this administration and agree on putting some blame on their response.


Don’t worry, your boy has got this. Not only do all the people who lost jobs not need to worry, they’re going to be making more money than before! And one more question ‘sir’: if we have the greatest economy in the history of the world, why does a -5% drop in GDP produce 30 million jobs lost? That’s 19% of the adult workforce. He’s full of it.

https://twitter.com/atrupar/status/1257 ... 24453?s=21
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Francoflier
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Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - May 2020

Mon May 04, 2020 1:54 am

Jalap wrote:
olle wrote:
Sweden has taken a worse hit but might get a less bad second wave. If we live we all see the truth ;-)

That is, assuming herd immunity is responsible for the lower R.
If this is the case, then it’ll be very interesting to see the studies that explain why so many Swedes could get infected with such a low death rate.
For it is very clear that death rate in other countries is far higher.

Something we can’t answer today.


I think figures are very deceptive at this stage. Every country has a different way of reporting cases and deaths, every country tests differently and to a very varying degree.

The death rate in Sweden is not that low compared to the number of cases or even per capita, but there is no way of telling how many people have been infected overall.

Likewise, there might be signs that the virus had infected Europe and America much before we started seriously testing for it. French doctors have recently rerun Covid tests on samples from December and found positives.
This would only make sense as global travel didn't stop until much later.

It does make one wonder how prevalent the disease is and, as you say, whether herd immunity is starting to have an impact or not.

One thing is certain, we need more data, and we will only probably know the true nature of the disease well after it's blown over.

Ultimately, the only valid parameter right now might simply be the excess overall mortality rate from respiratory diseases compared to the same period in an 'average' year, since there is no real other explanation for it than this outbreak.
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Aaron747
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Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - May 2020

Mon May 04, 2020 3:12 am

Francoflier wrote:
Jalap wrote:
olle wrote:
Sweden has taken a worse hit but might get a less bad second wave. If we live we all see the truth ;-)

That is, assuming herd immunity is responsible for the lower R.
If this is the case, then it’ll be very interesting to see the studies that explain why so many Swedes could get infected with such a low death rate.
For it is very clear that death rate in other countries is far higher.

Something we can’t answer today.


I think figures are very deceptive at this stage. Every country has a different way of reporting cases and deaths, every country tests differently and to a very varying degree.

The death rate in Sweden is not that low compared to the number of cases or even per capita, but there is no way of telling how many people have been infected overall.

Likewise, there might be signs that the virus had infected Europe and America much before we started seriously testing for it. French doctors have recently rerun Covid tests on samples from December and found positives.
This would only make sense as global travel didn't stop until much later.

It does make one wonder how prevalent the disease is and, as you say, whether herd immunity is starting to have an impact or not.

One thing is certain, we need more data, and we will only probably know the true nature of the disease well after it's blown over.

Ultimately, the only valid parameter right now might simply be the excess overall mortality rate from respiratory diseases compared to the same period in an 'average' year, since there is no real other explanation for it than this outbreak.


This public health researcher opines that test positivity rate is a key metric - the US is not faring so well compared to NZ and other nations with high test rates but positive test rates below 3%.

https://twitter.com/drericding/status/1 ... 11041?s=21
If you need someone to blame / throw a rock in the air / you'll hit someone guilty
 
art
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Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - May 2020

Mon May 04, 2020 7:47 am

AirWorthy99 wrote:
The sad fact, and I don't wish to be rude, everything in the world is about money except the love you have for your family and friends.


Not entirely true. Many artists strive to express what they want to express, rather than what is most capable of being exchanged for money. In another sphere, many scientists seek knowledge, not money. There are many people on this earth where everything in the world is not about money.
 
olle
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Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - May 2020

Mon May 04, 2020 10:18 am

Number of death per week go down in Sweden;

The number of death getting close the normal number of death per week the last 5 years.

https://www.dn.se/nyheter/sverige/scb-a ... e-minskar/

Statistics Sweden: The number of deaths in Sweden is decreasing
PUBLISHED 12:05
Fewer people died in Sweden week 17 compared to the weeks before. This lower figure is particularly noticeable in Stockholm County, where 30 percent fewer were reported to have died in week 17 compared to the peak listing two weeks earlier. In Västra Götaland County, for example, there is no clear downward trend at present.
Statistics Sweden publishes preliminary figures every week on how many people have died in Sweden so far during the year, based on the information reported from the Swedish Tax Agency. So far during the year, the figures have shown that more people have died than usual in March and April. During week 15, when 2,505 people died, the highest death toll in the 21st century was measured in Sweden. The latest figures show that fewer people died during week 17, according to the preliminary figures, then 1,985 people died. The figure for week 17 is still higher than the average for the past five years.
- Last week when we published the figures, week 15 was the top listing and so it is still. In Stockholm County in particular, there seems to be a clear downward trend, says Tomas Johansson at Statistics Sweden's Statistics on Population and Economic Welfare.

It was mainly in Stockholm County that the decline occurred. Week 15, a record 774 people died in the county, more than twice the average of recent years. During week 17, that figure has dropped to 528 deceased, a figure that is still higher than the average of recent years.

Although the figures in Stockholm County are lower than in the beginning of April, the trend differs from county to county. Uppsala, Södermanland and Östergötland have all seen clear reductions in relation to their previous figures, but in other counties such clear trends are not visible.

For example, Västra Götaland County saw an increase in the number of reported deaths between weeks 15 and 16. Increases during the same period were also seen in Halland, Norrbotten, Jämtland, Västmanland, Örebro, Värmland and on Gotland.

- What we see is that these clear top listings we have seen in Stockholm County and some of the crane counties do not seem to spread so markedly in other parts of Sweden. In Västra Götaland we saw an increase between weeks 15 and 16, but it is still not at these extreme high levels we have seen in, for example, Stockholm. However, it is difficult to say whether this is an upward trend or not, says Tomas Johansson.
It should be noted that Statistics Sweden's figures are preliminary and may change, and Tomas Johansson says that the figures are regularly revised. On April 6, for example, there was a figure of 229 deaths on March 31. On May 4, that figure had been revised to 306. According to Tomas Johansson, however, today there is nothing to indicate that the figures will again reach week 15's record highs.

Even major part of Sweden has not increased the number of death per week during the Covid outbreak. Stockholm that has showed the biggest number of death seems to be back to normal numbers within weeks.
 
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casinterest
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Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - May 2020

Mon May 04, 2020 12:06 pm

olle wrote:
Number of death per week go down in Sweden;

The number of death getting close the normal number of death per week the last 5 years.

https://www.dn.se/nyheter/sverige/scb-a ... e-minskar/

Statistics Sweden: The number of deaths in Sweden is decreasing
PUBLISHED 12:05
Fewer people died in Sweden week 17 compared to the weeks before. This lower figure is particularly noticeable in Stockholm County, where 30 percent fewer were reported to have died in week 17 compared to the peak listing two weeks earlier. In Västra Götaland County, for example, there is no clear downward trend at present.
Statistics Sweden publishes preliminary figures every week on how many people have died in Sweden so far during the year, based on the information reported from the Swedish Tax Agency. So far during the year, the figures have shown that more people have died than usual in March and April. During week 15, when 2,505 people died, the highest death toll in the 21st century was measured in Sweden. The latest figures show that fewer people died during week 17, according to the preliminary figures, then 1,985 people died. The figure for week 17 is still higher than the average for the past five years.
- Last week when we published the figures, week 15 was the top listing and so it is still. In Stockholm County in particular, there seems to be a clear downward trend, says Tomas Johansson at Statistics Sweden's Statistics on Population and Economic Welfare.

It was mainly in Stockholm County that the decline occurred. Week 15, a record 774 people died in the county, more than twice the average of recent years. During week 17, that figure has dropped to 528 deceased, a figure that is still higher than the average of recent years.

Although the figures in Stockholm County are lower than in the beginning of April, the trend differs from county to county. Uppsala, Södermanland and Östergötland have all seen clear reductions in relation to their previous figures, but in other counties such clear trends are not visible.

For example, Västra Götaland County saw an increase in the number of reported deaths between weeks 15 and 16. Increases during the same period were also seen in Halland, Norrbotten, Jämtland, Västmanland, Örebro, Värmland and on Gotland.

- What we see is that these clear top listings we have seen in Stockholm County and some of the crane counties do not seem to spread so markedly in other parts of Sweden. In Västra Götaland we saw an increase between weeks 15 and 16, but it is still not at these extreme high levels we have seen in, for example, Stockholm. However, it is difficult to say whether this is an upward trend or not, says Tomas Johansson.
It should be noted that Statistics Sweden's figures are preliminary and may change, and Tomas Johansson says that the figures are regularly revised. On April 6, for example, there was a figure of 229 deaths on March 31. On May 4, that figure had been revised to 306. According to Tomas Johansson, however, today there is nothing to indicate that the figures will again reach week 15's record highs.

Even major part of Sweden has not increased the number of death per week during the Covid outbreak. Stockholm that has showed the biggest number of death seems to be back to normal numbers within weeks.



It is good news for Sweden.
One interesting note is that Sweden has a land area about 3 times the size of North Carolina in the US , but about the same population.(10.4 million) North Carolina has only half the cases, and 1/6th of the deaths. I know the cases started earlier in Sweden, but it still seems there is an under-count of cases per death in Sweden.

Hopefully the trend downward continues in Sweden. Here in NC, without the lifting of Restrictions, the numbers are still climbing.
Where ever you go, there you are.
 
agill
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Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - May 2020

Mon May 04, 2020 12:25 pm

casinterest wrote:
I know the cases started earlier in Sweden, but it still seems there is an under-count of cases per death in Sweden.

Hopefully the trend downward continues in Sweden. Here in NC, without the lifting of Restrictions, the numbers are still climbing.


Yes there is most likely a massive undercounting of infected cases in Sweden due to most testing has been of hospital staff and people sick enough to seek medical attention. Then number of dead is quite accurate when they have compared mortality figures with the number of reported deaths.
 
AirWorthy99
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Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - May 2020

Mon May 04, 2020 1:02 pm

art wrote:
AirWorthy99 wrote:
The sad fact, and I don't wish to be rude, everything in the world is about money except the love you have for your family and friends.


Not entirely true. Many artists strive to express what they want to express, rather than what is most capable of being exchanged for money. In another sphere, many scientists seek knowledge, not money. There are many people on this earth where everything in the world is not about money.


Partly true, but its very simple not to worry about money when you already have. Artists either have enough to survive and have the spare time not to worry about money. Scientists, they need a lot of money to become scientist and do their research, either they are wealthy by family or are backed by a wealthy institution (universities, non-profits, governments etc). Its very simple not to do things thinking about money when you don't have to worry about it. You will need to find how many scientists come from 3rd world countries and do research there (many can be natives who migrated to wealthy countries). At the end money is tied to all of that.

And you are right, many people on earth money is not everything for them, I can think of many missionaries, religious types being an example.
“It’s easy to confuse ‘what is’ with ‘what ought to be,’ especially when ‘what is’ has worked out in your favor.” Tyrion Lannister
 
Jalap
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Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - May 2020

Mon May 04, 2020 4:42 pm

Francoflier wrote:
I think figures are very deceptive at this stage. Every country has a different way of reporting cases and deaths, every country tests differently and to a very varying degree.

It's the latest numers of excessive mortality that got me really puzzled.
I suppose those are counted in quite similar ways in most countries.
Then we see excessive deaths in Sweden don't stand out in any way.

Now, we also have preliminary studies showing only 5% of population having anibodies. While Sweden claims to be close to 30%. They probably believe to be much higher by now.
So, this is where the math doesn't add up and there's a missing factor. Probably a combination of missing factors.

It's really odd to have 6x as many infections per capita and still have roughly the same excessive deaths.
It's also very odd that the R number in Sweden can be as low as 0,8. If correct, that can only be explained by herd immunity. Which would support the claim that 30% has antibodies already.

So either all Swedish numbers are very wrong. Or, some other, still unknown, factors are in play. Since Sweden isn't China and conisdered to be a reliable source of information, I'm quite sure other factors will be found.

One thing could be that a particular vaccine is being used in Sweden (and other countries with little impact). While harder hit countries use a different vaccine. It was in the news here that there could be a relation between a vaccine all children have been getting here for 40 years. Imagine this is correct and other countries have been administring that vaccine for longer than 40 years, such a thing can explain a discrepancy or 2.
 
olle
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Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - May 2020

Mon May 04, 2020 4:45 pm

USA might have 3000 death per day in june;

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/04/us/c ... dates.html

The Trump administration projects about 3,000 daily deaths by early June
 
olle
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Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - May 2020

Mon May 04, 2020 4:56 pm

Jalap wrote:
Francoflier wrote:
I think figures are very deceptive at this stage. Every country has a different way of reporting cases and deaths, every country tests differently and to a very varying degree.

It's the latest numers of excessive mortality that got me really puzzled.
I suppose those are counted in quite similar ways in most countries.
Then we see excessive deaths in Sweden don't stand out in any way.

Now, we also have preliminary studies showing only 5% of population having anibodies. While Sweden claims to be close to 30%. They probably believe to be much higher by now.
So, this is where the math doesn't add up and there's a missing factor. Probably a combination of missing factors.

It's really odd to have 6x as many infections per capita and still have roughly the same excessive deaths.
It's also very odd that the R number in Sweden can be as low as 0,8. If correct, that can only be explained by herd immunity. Which would support the claim that 30% has antibodies already.

So either all Swedish numbers are very wrong. Or, some other, still unknown, factors are in play. Since Sweden isn't China and conisdered to be a reliable source of information, I'm quite sure other factors will be found.

One thing could be that a particular vaccine is being used in Sweden (and other countries with little impact). While harder hit countries use a different vaccine. It was in the news here that there could be a relation between a vaccine all children have been getting here for 40 years. Imagine this is correct and other countries have been administring that vaccine for longer than 40 years, such a thing can explain a discrepancy or 2.



As a swede, I can say that the very decentralized type of government and management would make it very unlikely and close impossible to make up numbers.

So even if noone real today seems to have the full pictures the fact is that patients coming to intensive care is starting to decrease and number of dead doing the same.

Swedish government assumes that the second wave in october will be less terrible then the current one.

We already see that number of death is similar in most parts of sweden compared to the period of 5 years.

When we conclude how governments has acted and the result in 18 month when we can assume vaccine in wide use we will see if norwegian / finnish strategy was more efficient then the swedish model.
 
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trpmb6
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Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - May 2020

Mon May 04, 2020 6:04 pm

CNN reporting that a meat packing plant in St. Joseph, MO (a fairly large one in fact) has seen 17% of their employees test positive for Covid19. What is interesting is they were all asymptomatic.

https://us.cnn.com/2020/05/04/us/triump ... index.html
 
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casinterest
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Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - May 2020

Mon May 04, 2020 6:16 pm

trpmb6 wrote:
CNN reporting that a meat packing plant in St. Joseph, MO (a fairly large one in fact) has seen 17% of their employees test positive for Covid19. What is interesting is they were all asymptomatic.

https://us.cnn.com/2020/05/04/us/triump ... index.html


The below article says "Vast Majority". I am not sure if CNN did their due diligence here.

I wonder if there are a lot that are just waiting to get sick. They have all been isolated for a few weeks, so we will have to see what happens.

https://www.missourinet.com/2020/05/02/ ... -covid-19/

A spokeswoman for DHSS, Lisa Cox, tells Missourinet the vast majority of the Triumph Foods employees were asymptomatic.
Where ever you go, there you are.
 
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casinterest
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Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - May 2020

Mon May 04, 2020 6:43 pm

olle wrote:
USA might have 3000 death per day in june;

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/04/us/c ... dates.html

The Trump administration projects about 3,000 daily deaths by early June



I get the picture that the real view is much worse as they are predicting over 200,000 new cases per day, which means that they are really looking at a higher number by the end of the month.

https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/495971-trump-administration-projecting-3k-daily-coronavirus-deaths-by-june

The projections show the U.S. reaching 200,000 new cases daily by June 1 with a daily death toll of roughly 3,000. The number of daily cases peaked in late April at just over 30,000. The current daily death toll varies, but typically falls between 1,500 and 2,000.

The report warns that the Great Lakes region, Southern California and parts of the South and Northeast are all seeing increasing case loads.

Where ever you go, there you are.
 
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Tugger
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Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - May 2020

Mon May 04, 2020 6:58 pm

casinterest wrote:
I get the picture that the real view is much worse as they are predicting over 200,000 new cases per day, which means that they are really looking at a higher number by the end of the month.

https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/495971-trump-administration-projecting-3k-daily-coronavirus-deaths-by-june

The projections show the U.S. reaching 200,000 new cases daily by June 1 with a daily death toll of roughly 3,000. The number of daily cases peaked in late April at just over 30,000. The current daily death toll varies, but typically falls between 1,500 and 2,000.

The report warns that the Great Lakes region, Southern California and parts of the South and Northeast are all seeing increasing case loads.

Well, again, this needs to be viewed with the fact that increased testing will mean an increasing number of "positives". That does not necessarily mean there will be a matching increase in hospitalizations or deaths. Especially since we have seen the (unexplained) high number of asymptomatic people with it.

Also with the mutations and apparently the two strains of the virus (east coast vs west coast) will also be a factor in what ends up happening.

Tugg
I don’t know that I am unafraid to be myself, but it is hard to be somebody else. - W. Shatner
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casinterest
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Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - May 2020

Mon May 04, 2020 7:06 pm

Tugger wrote:
casinterest wrote:
I get the picture that the real view is much worse as they are predicting over 200,000 new cases per day, which means that they are really looking at a higher number by the end of the month.

https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/495971-trump-administration-projecting-3k-daily-coronavirus-deaths-by-june

The projections show the U.S. reaching 200,000 new cases daily by June 1 with a daily death toll of roughly 3,000. The number of daily cases peaked in late April at just over 30,000. The current daily death toll varies, but typically falls between 1,500 and 2,000.

The report warns that the Great Lakes region, Southern California and parts of the South and Northeast are all seeing increasing case loads.

Well, again, this needs to be viewed with the fact that increased testing will mean an increasing number of "positives". That does not necessarily mean there will be a matching increase in hospitalizations or deaths. Especially since we have seen the (unexplained) high number of asymptomatic people with it.

Also with the mutations and apparently the two strains of the virus (east coast vs west coast) will also be a factor in what ends up happening.

Tugg



It could be, but As stated if we reach that level, we are letting the virus go wild. The estimates say that even at a .4% death rate, over 1.2 million American's would die from this. That would be a rate of 3,000 a day for a whole year.
Where ever you go, there you are.
 
Jalap
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Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - May 2020

Mon May 04, 2020 10:33 pm

olle wrote:
When we conclude how governments has acted and the result in 18 month when we can assume vaccine in wide use we will see if norwegian / finnish strategy was more efficient then the swedish model.

Exactly.
Clearly one cannot compare the Nordic countries with the central and Southern European. Except for Germany, all those have clearly suffered (are suffering) more per capita than the Northern.

Why that is remains a mystery. I can think of only 2 reasons:
- It's something in the blood. Like childhood vaccines used in those countries that accidentally render this virus less harmfull. We've all been vaccinated, but different countries probably used different vaccines. It's not unlikely at all that this plays a role in the differnces we see.
- Different strains of the virus in different countries. Could play a role, but I think the differences in mortality per country are too sharp for this to be much of an explanation. It would however be a very attractive explanation, because the more harmfull strains will lose terrain against strains that are more asymptomatic (harmfull -> sick people stay home -> can't infect any others ; harmless -> people asymptomatic -> spread virus more). If this is playing, who knows by October only relatively harmless strains remain.

In any case, it's imo clear fact that in Western and Southern Europe (and in certain US states) a "Swedish" approach was never an option, seeing the havoc that's been created there. Perhaps is was an option in other countries/states. But without explanation for the differences in mortality, this really is nothing more than just guessing.
 
Eyad89
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Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - May 2020

Mon May 04, 2020 10:56 pm

AirWorthy99 wrote:


If you keep pointing out that people getting infected is a reason to keep these draconian measures moving forward, we will be going on with this for 2 years at the very least. And that's an unsustainable goal here and in any country in the world.



Well, those lockdown measures provide a great benefit that has not been discussed here. It will buy some time for our medical experts to come up with treatment methods that would at least reduce the death rate. Fauci has said that very clearly. The way out of this virus isn't necessarily a vaccine, we simply could find treatment methods that would eventually make this virus no more deadly, and then life will be all normal again. Never in history have we seen such collaboration from all the great medical minds trying to find a way out of this. They proposed a list of 70 current drugs that could help prevent this virus form multiplying. This list even includes drugs used for head lice or acid reflux.

As of now, three potential treatments have shown promising results in reducing the duration of symptoms or increasing the survival rate in severe cases:
1- Remdesivir (Ebola drug)
2- antibody treatments.
3- blood plasma treatments


Now, Let's say the we find a legit way to seriously bring down the death rate by August, then those lockdowns would have saved hundreds of thousands of lives.
 
dtw2hyd
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Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - May 2020

Mon May 04, 2020 11:00 pm

NY, NJ, CT, PA and MA are showing no sign of slowing down.

MD and VA trends are worry some. So does GA, TX, IL and FL.

CA seems to be rejoining the club.

MI new infections slowed down considerably. I hope the anti-mask movement is not going to ruin it.

Interesting facts, as I observed earlier
Statewide African Americans have a death rate of 41% and Caucasians have 48%.
In City of Detroit, African Americans have a death rate of 77.3% and Caucasian 6.5%
In Oakland County, African Americans have a death rate of 37% and Caucasian 57%.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/
https://www.michigan.gov/coronavirus/0, ... --,00.html
https://oakgov.maps.arcgis.com/apps/ops ... 388134c818
https://codtableau.detroitmi.gov/t/DHD/ ... %3Aembed=y
All posts are just opinions.
 
Eyad89
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Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - May 2020

Mon May 04, 2020 11:01 pm

Jalap wrote:

Why that is remains a mystery. I can think of only 2 reasons:
- It's something in the blood. Like childhood vaccines used in those countries that accidentally render this virus less harmfull. We've all been vaccinated, but different countries probably used different vaccines. It's not unlikely at all that this plays a role in the differnces we see.
- Different strains of the virus in different countries. Could play a role, but I think the differences in mortality per country are too sharp for this to be much of an explanation. It would however be a very attractive explanation, because the more harmfull strains will lose terrain against strains that are more asymptomatic (harmfull -> sick people stay home -> can't infect any others ; harmless -> people asymptomatic -> spread virus more). If this is playing, who knows by October only relatively harmless strains remain.

.


Or, we can say since the US, UK, Spain, France, and Italy are popular tourist destinations for the Chinese that the virus got spread more heavily in those countries before any lockdown or measures were taken? You cannot say that about the Scandinavian countries. Plus, the population density makes a huge difference, and that was in favour of the Scandinavian countries.
 
Jalap
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Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - May 2020

Mon May 04, 2020 11:14 pm

Eyad89 wrote:
As of now, three potential treatments have shown promising results in reducing the duration of symptoms or increasing the survival rate in severe cases:
1- Remdesivir (Ebola drug)
2- antibody treatments.
3- blood plasma treatments


Now, Let's say the we find a legit way to seriously bring down the death rate by August, then those lockdowns would have saved hundreds of thousands of lives.

This.
Buying time is buyng lives.
There is progress worldwide in treatment of the ill.

Surely your list is far too short. One reason why people die from corona, especially younger people, seems to be that the immune system remains in overdrive even after the virus has disappeared from the body. Existing medicines that suppress the immune system are showing very promising results for this kind of patients.

I'm in an optimistic mood today. I think the virus is becoming less nasty because evolutionary logic (helped by lockdown). Treatments are getting better. Could very well be that in a few months you either will barely feel you're infected, or there'll be a good treatment available if you do have a nasty case.
 
Jalap
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Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - May 2020

Mon May 04, 2020 11:27 pm

Eyad89 wrote:
Or, we can say since the US, UK, Spain, France, and Italy are popular tourist destinations for the Chinese that the virus got spread more heavily in those countries before any lockdown or measures were taken? You cannot say that about the Scandinavian countries. Plus, the population density makes a huge difference, and that was in favour of the Scandinavian countries.

The Swedish experiment pretty much proves that it's possible to have far more infections with still a relatively low mortality rate. Your argument makes sense looking at numbers early April. But not today.
It doesn't explain the (very probable) high Swedish infection rate while maintaining a relatively low mortality rate.
The UK tried the Swedish approach, but changed its mind. It didn't work there like it did in Sweden. Same with the Netherlands, they also wanted to go herd immunity but ended up with pretty strict measures.

Hence, there must be other factors in play. A mystery for now.
(A mystery that needs te be answered before the whole world can go teh Swedish way, let this be very clear)
 
AirWorthy99
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Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - May 2020

Mon May 04, 2020 11:38 pm

Eyad89 wrote:
AirWorthy99 wrote:


If you keep pointing out that people getting infected is a reason to keep these draconian measures moving forward, we will be going on with this for 2 years at the very least. And that's an unsustainable goal here and in any country in the world.



Well, those lockdown measures provide a great benefit that has not been discussed here. It will buy some time for our medical experts to come up with treatment methods that would at least reduce the death rate. Fauci has said that very clearly. The way out of this virus isn't necessarily a vaccine, we simply could find treatment methods that would eventually make this virus no more deadly, and then life will be all normal again. Never in history have we seen such collaboration from all the great medical minds trying to find a way out of this. They proposed a list of 70 current drugs that could help prevent this virus form multiplying. This list even includes drugs used for head lice or acid reflux.

As of now, three potential treatments have shown promising results in reducing the duration of symptoms or increasing the survival rate in severe cases:
1- Remdesivir (Ebola drug)
2- antibody treatments.
3- blood plasma treatments


Now, Let's say the we find a legit way to seriously bring down the death rate by August, then those lockdowns would have saved hundreds of thousands of lives.


Problem is not everyone is willing to wait 2 years to get back to their lives.

The lock-down measures were good initially to gather the data, study it, and come up with real solutions moving forward, I think perhaps the first 30 days. I highly doubt the lockdown intentions initially were to keep us locked down for 2 years. That wasn't part of the plan. Or at least that was what they said.

But now that we know who is more vulnerable and at risk from this virus based on the data, I think we can learn how to take the necessary precautions and measures to avoid filling the hospitals and thousands of those vulnerable dying.

Treatments, vaccines, etc, we still don't know when would they be ready and if ever they will. Waiting 2 years while the world's economy collapses and those who are not to die be kept lockdown doesn't make sense.
“It’s easy to confuse ‘what is’ with ‘what ought to be,’ especially when ‘what is’ has worked out in your favor.” Tyrion Lannister
 
dtw2hyd
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Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - May 2020

Mon May 04, 2020 11:52 pm

Jalap wrote:
The Swedish experiment pretty much proves that it's possible to have far more infections with still a relatively low mortality rate.


That has nothing to do with Swedish, it is the general rule. That is the primary reason every country is looking for a mass-produced antibody test, to prove that theory and look good with stats, ie., low mortality rate.

Why are more people dying in the USA, the UK, Italy, Spain and France? My opinion it is the way health is managed in these countries, even with too many managed health conditions, a human is considered perfectly healthy. Add COVID-19, one more unmanaged condition tips the scales. Maybe even psychological, if there is no vaccine, we all going to die, which is not true.

I don't discount Chinese tourism connection, I would add even trade relationship with China as a factor, like Iran, may be even Pakistan.

Some strains seem to be more deadly. Different states in same country seems to be hit by different strains.
All posts are just opinions.
 
N757ST
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Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - May 2020

Tue May 05, 2020 12:25 am

dtw2hyd wrote:
NY, NJ, CT, PA and MA are showing no sign of slowing down.

MD and VA trends are worry some. So does GA, TX, IL and FL.

CA seems to be rejoining the club.

MI new infections slowed down considerably. I hope the anti-mask movement is not going to ruin it.

Interesting facts, as I observed earlier
Statewide African Americans have a death rate of 41% and Caucasians have 48%.
In City of Detroit, African Americans have a death rate of 77.3% and Caucasian 6.5%
In Oakland County, African Americans have a death rate of 37% and Caucasian 57%.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/
https://www.michigan.gov/coronavirus/0, ... --,00.html
https://oakgov.maps.arcgis.com/apps/ops ... 388134c818
https://codtableau.detroitmi.gov/t/DHD/ ... %3Aembed=y


Hospitalizations are down in the tri state. Testing positive rates don’t necessarily correlate with more cases, but rather more testing being available. Hospitalization rates, and death rates are better metrics, especially when antibody testing is showing you are missing 70-95% of cases.
 
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Aaron747
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Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - May 2020

Tue May 05, 2020 1:55 am

AirWorthy99 wrote:
Eyad89 wrote:
AirWorthy99 wrote:


If you keep pointing out that people getting infected is a reason to keep these draconian measures moving forward, we will be going on with this for 2 years at the very least. And that's an unsustainable goal here and in any country in the world.



Well, those lockdown measures provide a great benefit that has not been discussed here. It will buy some time for our medical experts to come up with treatment methods that would at least reduce the death rate. Fauci has said that very clearly. The way out of this virus isn't necessarily a vaccine, we simply could find treatment methods that would eventually make this virus no more deadly, and then life will be all normal again. Never in history have we seen such collaboration from all the great medical minds trying to find a way out of this. They proposed a list of 70 current drugs that could help prevent this virus form multiplying. This list even includes drugs used for head lice or acid reflux.

As of now, three potential treatments have shown promising results in reducing the duration of symptoms or increasing the survival rate in severe cases:
1- Remdesivir (Ebola drug)
2- antibody treatments.
3- blood plasma treatments


Now, Let's say the we find a legit way to seriously bring down the death rate by August, then those lockdowns would have saved hundreds of thousands of lives.


Problem is not everyone is willing to wait 2 years to get back to their lives.

The lock-down measures were good initially to gather the data, study it, and come up with real solutions moving forward, I think perhaps the first 30 days. I highly doubt the lockdown intentions initially were to keep us locked down for 2 years. That wasn't part of the plan. Or at least that was what they said.

But now that we know who is more vulnerable and at risk from this virus based on the data, I think we can learn how to take the necessary precautions and measures to avoid filling the hospitals and thousands of those vulnerable dying.

Treatments, vaccines, etc, we still don't know when would they be ready and if ever they will. Waiting 2 years while the world's economy collapses and those who are not to die be kept lockdown doesn't make sense.


The gating criteria for ending lockdowns has been made perfectly clear - by the WH, by CDC, by most epidemiologists - it’s only partisan fanatics who claim it’s an ulterior motives plot that lasts for years. Get real man!
If you need someone to blame / throw a rock in the air / you'll hit someone guilty
 
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Francoflier
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Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - May 2020

Tue May 05, 2020 2:20 am

Jalap wrote:
Eyad89 wrote:
Or, we can say since the US, UK, Spain, France, and Italy are popular tourist destinations for the Chinese that the virus got spread more heavily in those countries before any lockdown or measures were taken? You cannot say that about the Scandinavian countries. Plus, the population density makes a huge difference, and that was in favour of the Scandinavian countries.

The Swedish experiment pretty much proves that it's possible to have far more infections with still a relatively low mortality rate. Your argument makes sense looking at numbers early April. But not today.
It doesn't explain the (very probable) high Swedish infection rate while maintaining a relatively low mortality rate.
The UK tried the Swedish approach, but changed its mind. It didn't work there like it did in Sweden. Same with the Netherlands, they also wanted to go herd immunity but ended up with pretty strict measures.

Hence, there must be other factors in play. A mystery for now.
(A mystery that needs te be answered before the whole world can go teh Swedish way, let this be very clear)


I'm not sure how the different strains affect different regions, or even if the virus affected different genetic makeups differently. There will be some really interesting findings down the line.

One thing is becoming increasingly clear however, is that the virus was present in Europe well before the authorities started to even worry about it. The initial fast rise in cases was likely related to the fact that these places simply didn't test anyone before. Ditto the US. I believe this goes a long way in explaining how things got so far out of control there. It was left to spread unchecked until it was too late.

At this stage, I think it's pretty clear that the virus has had time to take hold in pretty much every country in the World. There are those that are past the peak and have pretty much dealt with it, those that are currently fighting it and those who haven't started properly testing yet...

Cheap, simple, fast and reasonably accurate testing is the way we get out of this and life can regain a semblance of normalcy until we find a cure or buildup enough immunity.

As for lockdowns, well it seems the US is nowhere near ready to ease them. Not so much because the disease is out of control, but because an out of control proportion of the population who couldn't assemble a working brain between all of them, and have been made to believe that their raging ignorance and anger is acceptable since late 2016, are simply not able or willing to follow the simple measures that the public should cooperate with to allow for the lifting of restrictions...:

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-52540266

:shakehead:

That's just pathetic.
I'll do my own airline. With Blackjack. And hookers. In fact, forget the airline.
 
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casinterest
Posts: 11299
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Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - May 2020

Tue May 05, 2020 2:35 am

N757ST wrote:
dtw2hyd wrote:
NY, NJ, CT, PA and MA are showing no sign of slowing down.

MD and VA trends are worry some. So does GA, TX, IL and FL.

CA seems to be rejoining the club.

MI new infections slowed down considerably. I hope the anti-mask movement is not going to ruin it.

Interesting facts, as I observed earlier
Statewide African Americans have a death rate of 41% and Caucasians have 48%.
In City of Detroit, African Americans have a death rate of 77.3% and Caucasian 6.5%
In Oakland County, African Americans have a death rate of 37% and Caucasian 57%.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/
https://www.michigan.gov/coronavirus/0, ... --,00.html
https://oakgov.maps.arcgis.com/apps/ops ... 388134c818
https://codtableau.detroitmi.gov/t/DHD/ ... %3Aembed=y


Hospitalizations are down in the tri state. Testing positive rates don’t necessarily correlate with more cases, but rather more testing being available. Hospitalization rates, and death rates are better metrics, especially when antibody testing is showing you are missing 70-95% of cases.



Infections and deaths were always supposed to slow under social distancing. The R Factor was reduced, and places were getting better. Now with the economy opening up, we are going to see a slide back the towards the other way. Will it be far enough to let Covid get out of control? Or will we be able to adapt?

The long dormancy rate of Covid-19 is problematic as most places won't have a clear answer for 2-3 weeks.

When you look at this weeks' numbers under the worldometer link above, you will see that the numbers for yesterday and today are not much below last week's numbers on Sunday and Monday for deaths. O am a bit worried that we may be watching the lowest points this week for awhile.
Where ever you go, there you are.
 
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Aaron747
Posts: 11980
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Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - May 2020

Tue May 05, 2020 3:01 am

Francoflier wrote:
Jalap wrote:
Eyad89 wrote:
Or, we can say since the US, UK, Spain, France, and Italy are popular tourist destinations for the Chinese that the virus got spread more heavily in those countries before any lockdown or measures were taken? You cannot say that about the Scandinavian countries. Plus, the population density makes a huge difference, and that was in favour of the Scandinavian countries.

The Swedish experiment pretty much proves that it's possible to have far more infections with still a relatively low mortality rate. Your argument makes sense looking at numbers early April. But not today.
It doesn't explain the (very probable) high Swedish infection rate while maintaining a relatively low mortality rate.
The UK tried the Swedish approach, but changed its mind. It didn't work there like it did in Sweden. Same with the Netherlands, they also wanted to go herd immunity but ended up with pretty strict measures.

Hence, there must be other factors in play. A mystery for now.
(A mystery that needs te be answered before the whole world can go teh Swedish way, let this be very clear)


I'm not sure how the different strains affect different regions, or even if the virus affected different genetic makeups differently. There will be some really interesting findings down the line.

One thing is becoming increasingly clear however, is that the virus was present in Europe well before the authorities started to even worry about it. The initial fast rise in cases was likely related to the fact that these places simply didn't test anyone before. Ditto the US. I believe this goes a long way in explaining how things got so far out of control there. It was left to spread unchecked until it was too late.

At this stage, I think it's pretty clear that the virus has had time to take hold in pretty much every country in the World. There are those that are past the peak and have pretty much dealt with it, those that are currently fighting it and those who haven't started properly testing yet...

Cheap, simple, fast and reasonably accurate testing is the way we get out of this and life can regain a semblance of normalcy until we find a cure or buildup enough immunity.

As for lockdowns, well it seems the US is nowhere near ready to ease them. Not so much because the disease is out of control, but because an out of control proportion of the population who couldn't assemble a working brain between all of them, and have been made to believe that their raging ignorance and anger is acceptable since late 2016, are simply not able or willing to follow the simple measures that the public should cooperate with to allow for the lifting of restrictions...:

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-52540266

:shakehead:

That's just pathetic.


Your assessment of the US situation is correct. By far one of the most serious problems in our society is a lack of maturity amongst many adults coupled with inability to see any big picture beyond one’s immediate selfish needs. There are a lot of great people doing the right thing of course, but we’re not ready to move into the next phase because testing and the selfishly immature are holding us back.
If you need someone to blame / throw a rock in the air / you'll hit someone guilty
 
olle
Posts: 2086
Joined: Tue Feb 06, 2007 3:38 am

Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - May 2020

Tue May 05, 2020 8:49 am

Swedish GDP fell 0.3% during Q1 2020.

https://live.aftonbladet.se/supernytt/n ... 0018a0007b

This is less then expected.
 
olle
Posts: 2086
Joined: Tue Feb 06, 2007 3:38 am

Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - May 2020

Tue May 05, 2020 10:14 am

olle wrote:
Swedish GDP fell 0.3% during Q1 2020.

https://live.aftonbladet.se/supernytt/n ... 0018a0007b

This is less then expected.


Of course March was -2% so the Q2 will be worse ;-(
 
dtw2hyd
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Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - May 2020

Tue May 05, 2020 1:14 pm

N757ST wrote:
Hospitalizations are down in the tri state. Testing positive rates don’t necessarily correlate with more cases, but rather more testing being available. Hospitalization rates, and death rates are better metrics, especially when antibody testing is showing you are missing 70-95% of cases.


Agreed, but having huge number of active cases always carries a risk of run on healthcare system. Michigan had 800-1000/day for almost 40 days. Now between 200-500. Deaths down to double digits.

Michigan has the highest CFR in the country. Either their symptom recognition process is exemplary or too many unhealthy people. States are not publishing CFR, I wonder why.
All posts are just opinions.
 
N212R
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Joined: Wed Dec 14, 2016 5:18 pm

Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - May 2020

Tue May 05, 2020 4:25 pm

Jalap wrote:
Eyad89 wrote:
It doesn't explain the (very probable) high Swedish infection rate while maintaining a relatively low mortality rate.
The UK tried the Swedish approach, but changed its mind. It didn't work there like it did in Sweden.


It is an interesting conundrum. I can understand why the Swedes fare better than the UK. Healthier overall lifestyle cradle to grave, less obesity, less processed foods, less heart disease?, greater social protections, less stress, more vacation time etc etc.

But how to account for the mortality rates in Italy, home of the Mediterranean diet and La Dolce Vita? Italy (and Sweden) are both near the top in life expectancy age yet Italian seniors are dying at a much higher rate than their Swedish counterparts.

Said earlier:
1) different virus strain
2) historical immunization (or not)
3) diet derived body chemistry
4) something else?
 
N212R
Posts: 330
Joined: Wed Dec 14, 2016 5:18 pm

Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - May 2020

Tue May 05, 2020 4:42 pm

Aaron747 wrote:
Your assessment of the US situation is correct. By far one of the most serious problems in our society is a lack of maturity amongst many adults coupled with inability to see any big picture beyond one’s immediate selfish needs.


The only "big picture" Americans can see is the Idiot Box. What they can't see is the continuing social ill that contraption engenders. We have effectively allowed ourselves to be both brain neutered and attention hystericized.

Back to the future...yes, the social easing will prove to be premature.
 
AirWorthy99
Posts: 1092
Joined: Thu Jan 09, 2020 7:57 pm

Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - May 2020

Tue May 05, 2020 4:44 pm

N212R wrote:
1) different virus strain


This is something that doesn't make much sense, really.

Here in Florida we had people coming by the droves from NY down here during the height of the virus, and yet look at the death rates of FL compared to NY. Lots of seniors who retire in Florida that come from NY.

We had flights coming from Milan landing daily at Miami airport during the crisis. Daily from Spain at Miami airport, not to mention the rest of the airports in the state with the connections. And the imported international cases that came to Florida most of them came from those European hotpots, and later from New York. So if the same strain landed in Florida, something magical happened because it did not kill at the same rate here.

So epidemiologists will try to find out why there are so much variations within different countries and even regions/states. Read a piece on the NYT about that:

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/03/worl ... e-why.html

Its uncertain and strange to say the least. Don't know if the 'different strains' theory holds up everywhere.
“It’s easy to confuse ‘what is’ with ‘what ought to be,’ especially when ‘what is’ has worked out in your favor.” Tyrion Lannister
 
N212R
Posts: 330
Joined: Wed Dec 14, 2016 5:18 pm

Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - May 2020

Tue May 05, 2020 5:45 pm

AirWorthy99 wrote:
1) different virus strain

This is something that doesn't make much sense, really.


Happy to agree with you. The FL evidence seems clearly to advocate for something besides the virus strain "theory".
 
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trpmb6
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Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - May 2020

Tue May 05, 2020 5:54 pm

Well I wrote something and network outage wiped out what I had said.

We do know the virus is mutating... RNA viruses mutate quickly. So you could see different countries being impacted differently. In fact we know they are.

It's possible the virus was far more widespread and of real no consequence until it mutated in Wuhan and became much more severe. If I recall, Covid19 was only 70% similar to the so called bat coronavirus they were claiming it originated from. Well, that implies it's mutated quite a bit.
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