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seahawk
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - May 2020

Fri May 22, 2020 7:13 am

Francoflier wrote:
I'm not sure it has been posted on this thread yet, but Rystad Energy published and regularly updates a global COVID-19 report. While it was mostly commissioned by Oil companies for strategic purposes, it is freely available to download and is quite interesting.

Of particular note is their estimation that the number of actual cases is much higher than that of reported cases. While that in itself is pretty much established, the amount by which one exceeds the other is quite shockingly high according to them. We could be closing in on 100 million actual cases Worldwide by the end of June.

This, if true, lends credence to the theory that the disease is much more prevalent than thought and, assuming the death toll is much closer to reality as severe cases get tested, much less deadly than anticipated.

https://www.rystadenergy.com/newsevents ... 19-report/


Why is that a surprise. Only few countries have enough testing capacity to even get an idea on the actual numbers of infections, while many countries with big populations only have limited or practically non existing testing capabilities. Nobody talks about it, but Africa alone will probably add millions of infected.

But good news from the USA. trump says there will be no second lockdown: https://www.business-standard.com/artic ... 230_1.html
 
olle
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - May 2020

Fri May 22, 2020 7:17 am

Aesma wrote:
Pi7472000 wrote:
Hello!

There are many people who do not believe in vaccines and refuse to get them. Will require that all people show their vaccine papers in the future when we get one for COVID19 to help get people traveling again? I have had to show that I got a yellow fever shot when I enter certain countries so am wondering if this would be solution in the future. If you don't want a vaccine then you can stay in your local area.


It may in part hinge on the vaccine itself.

For example if you can't give it to a significant number of people, then you need others to take it consistently.

Vaccines are not tested on pregnant women usually. Then on people with such and such health condition.


There isa number of roups that normally shall not have a vaccine, including in some cases pregnant women. It is therefore the rest of us have an obligation to get the vaccine...
 
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casinterest
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - May 2020

Fri May 22, 2020 11:43 am

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavir ... aily-cases

The number of cases is increasing world wide even while many countries efforts to contain it have largely been successful. The , Brazil, , India, Pakistan, Saudi Arabia , Mexico, Peru, and others are seeing increasing case loads. Some countries more than others. The USA and Russia are having a consistently large number of cases each day due to the size of the countries and the differences in successful social distancing within them.

This is going to create an interesting issue with containment,

How useful are the efforts of China, New Zealand, South Korea,Europe, Montana, Alaska, Hawaii to contain the disease going to be when the rest of the world is letting it spread?
We may be in for multiple waves of illness in these countries.

How does all of this resolve when we have no vaccine as of yet. It does seem we will see Multiple waves of infection sweep the world.
Where ever you go, there you are.
 
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scbriml
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - May 2020

Fri May 22, 2020 12:09 pm

Chemist wrote:
Not sure why that is so hard to understand.


Because some people honestly think their "rights and freedoms" outweigh everything and everyone else and they really don't give a shit about the consequences.

Many are probably the same people who built a fortified safe room in their basement and filled it with provisions and weapons ready for the apocalypse, but can't handle being asked to stay at home for a few weeks to stop the spread of a highly contagious virus.
Time flies like an arrow. Fruit flies like a banana!
There are 10 types of people in the World - those that understand binary and those that don't.
 
UpNAWAy
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - May 2020

Fri May 22, 2020 12:45 pm

Chemist wrote:
UpNAWAy wrote:
A relatively healthy person under 50 has more risk of getting struck by lightening than dying from covid, so why are we acting like this is a deadly plague, it is not. We could have done some very basic things like some reasonable social distancing and increase hygiene and enhanced measures for the sick and frail. Instead in the US we have decimated nursing homes and assisted living by not making those the main focus from the very beginning.


With an unknown virus, you don't know these things for a while, so caution makes sense. As we learn more, we adjust.
Not sure why that is so hard to understand.



I agree with this and initially with the protocols, but now we have the data and everything is a huge over reaction at this point.
 
UpNAWAy
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - May 2020

Fri May 22, 2020 12:48 pm

Aaron747 wrote:
UpNAWAy wrote:
I have no conspiracy ideas at all, but amazing in a world were no one agrees on anything we all agreed without question on this? And just look at the deaths this is a disease that effects people over 80 and up. The numbers of deaths under 60 are not even statistically relevant and those folks 95+% had other underlying health issues. Almost no healthy people have died from this. Pneumonia and the Flu have killed way more people this year than COVID for the under 65 age groups. The data doesn't support any of the actions taken and the reopening restrictions are also not data driven but emotional pablum that make no scientific or medical sense.


NIH and CDC don’t generally employ people with a resume of pablum, but hey, whatever floats your boat, that’s what you’re gonna believe. :boggled: Are you an MD/MPH, or you just enjoy armchair medicine?


NIH, CDC, WHO and especially Dr. Facui have been wrong about almost everything. If they were baseball players that would be batting about 150. Oh and these are the experts whos only job is to plan and react for just such a case and they failed miserably.
 
tommy1808
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - May 2020

Fri May 22, 2020 1:33 pm

UpNAWAy wrote:
Chemist wrote:
UpNAWAy wrote:
A relatively healthy person under 50 has more risk of getting struck by lightening than dying from covid, so why are we acting like this is a deadly plague, it is not. We could have done some very basic things like some reasonable social distancing and increase hygiene and enhanced measures for the sick and frail. Instead in the US we have decimated nursing homes and assisted living by not making those the main focus from the very beginning.


With an unknown virus, you don't know these things for a while, so caution makes sense. As we learn more, we adjust.
Not sure why that is so hard to understand.



I agree with this and initially with the protocols, but now we have the data and everything is a huge over reaction at this point.


The virus turned out both more contagious and more dangerous than suspected at first, so how exactly was it an overreaction?
And how many times over the losses from the Vietnam war does it have to be before it is serious?

UpNAWAy wrote:
Aaron747 wrote:
UpNAWAy wrote:
I have no conspiracy ideas at all, but amazing in a world were no one agrees on anything we all agreed without question on this? And just look at the deaths this is a disease that effects people over 80 and up. The numbers of deaths under 60 are not even statistically relevant and those folks 95+% had other underlying health issues. Almost no healthy people have died from this. Pneumonia and the Flu have killed way more people this year than COVID for the under 65 age groups. The data doesn't support any of the actions taken and the reopening restrictions are also not data driven but emotional pablum that make no scientific or medical sense.


NIH and CDC don’t generally employ people with a resume of pablum, but hey, whatever floats your boat, that’s what you’re gonna believe. :boggled: Are you an MD/MPH, or you just enjoy armchair medicine?


NIH, CDC, WHO and especially Dr. Facui have been wrong about almost everything. If they were baseball players that would be batting about 150. Oh and these are the experts whos only job is to plan and react for just such a case and they failed miserably.


You can not have it both ways, "the virus isn't dangerous" and "they failed", at the same time.
And we know the CDC had a plan that their boss didn't let them implement. He didn't even allow them to publish their full guidelines for safe reopening.

Best regards
Thomas
Well, there is prophecy in the bible after all: 2 Timothy 3:1-6
 
UpNAWAy
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - May 2020

Fri May 22, 2020 2:43 pm

Comparing it to war is just stupid. Compare it to Flu and Pneumonia however makes sense and for every age group those are more deadly still for those under 65! And we have never stopped the world for those. Hell in 1969 almost 1 million Americans died from the flu and we had Woodstock and Monterey festivals and it never made the news reaching page 24 of the NYT was the most news it got. It is absolutely an over reaction driven by media.
 
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Aaron747
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - May 2020

Fri May 22, 2020 2:58 pm

UpNAWAy wrote:
Comparing it to war is just stupid. Compare it to Flu and Pneumonia however makes sense and for every age group those are more deadly still for those under 65! And we have never stopped the world for those. Hell in 1969 almost 1 million Americans died from the flu and we had Woodstock and Monterey festivals and it never made the news reaching page 24 of the NYT was the most news it got. It is absolutely an over reaction driven by media.


You are entitled to your own opinion, but not your own facts. This woman who crunches numbers for a living, demonstrates why, in her professional analysis, claims like yours are totally erroneous.

https://timmermanreport.com/2020/04/why ... h-the-flu/
If you need someone to blame / throw a rock in the air / you'll hit someone guilty
 
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casinterest
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - May 2020

Fri May 22, 2020 2:59 pm

The current fatality rates are currently much higher for Covid-19 than for the flu and pneumonia across all age groups.

https://www.livescience.com/covid-19-de ... eaths.html
Based on data from death certificates, during the deadliest week of flu season over the last several years, the counted number of U.S. deaths due to flu ranged from 351 during the 2015 to 2016 flu season to 1,626 during the 2017 to 2018 flu season, the authors said. The average number of flu deaths during the week of peak flu mortality in recent seasons (from 2013 to 2020) was 752 deaths.

In contrast, for COVID-19, there were 15,455 deaths reported in the U.S. during the week ending April 21 (the highest weekly death toll during the pandemic so far) the authors said

That means that the number of COVID-19 deaths for the week ending April 21 was about 10- to 40-fold higher than the number of influenza deaths for the most lethal week of the past seven flu seasons. That peak COVID-19 weekly death count is about 20 times higher than the average weekly peak flu death count, the authors said.
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scbriml
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - May 2020

Fri May 22, 2020 4:01 pm

Aaron747 wrote:
You are entitled to your own opinion, but not your own facts. This woman who crunches numbers for a living, demonstrates why, in her professional analysis, claims like yours are totally erroneous.

https://timmermanreport.com/2020/04/why ... h-the-flu/


casinterest wrote:
The current fatality rates are currently much higher for Covid-19 than for the flu and pneumonia across all age groups.

https://www.livescience.com/covid-19-de ... eaths.html


Damn you both with your pesky facts. And your reason. And your science. :wink2:

America is on the cusp of 100,000 Covid-19 deaths in around four months from first case, and that's with measures taken. It beggars belief that idiots are still saying "It's just 'flu!" and "See, we didn't need to lose our rights and freedoms, it wasn't that bad!" :banghead:
Time flies like an arrow. Fruit flies like a banana!
There are 10 types of people in the World - those that understand binary and those that don't.
 
UpNAWAy
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - May 2020

Fri May 22, 2020 4:10 pm

Over 800,000 Americans died of the Flu in 1969! And she didn't list fact she just listed her opinion!
Compare it to Pneumonia and flue by age groups shows one the real story, not the false fear story.
 
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casinterest
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - May 2020

Fri May 22, 2020 4:21 pm

UpNAWAy wrote:
Over 800,000 Americans died of the Flu in 1969! And she didn't list fact she just listed her opinion!
Compare it to Pneumonia and flue by age groups shows one the real story, not the false fear story.


You might want to source that claim .

https://www.reuters.com/article/uk-fact ... SKBN22J2MJ

The death toll from the Hong Kong flu was comparable with the 1957 Asian flu pandemic that killed 1.1 million worldwide (here). As of May 12, 2020 at least 286,669 people globally had died during the current COVID-19 outbreak ( coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html ).



“The Hong Kong Flu (H3N2) of 1968, killed 1 million worldwide, and 100,000 in the US, most excess deaths being in people 65+ (via the CDC). Nothing changed economically, nothing closed, no social distancing, no masks. No one was considered selfish then.”

The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) confirms those figures on its website, where it says that the disease was first noted in the United States in September 1968. (here)

The pandemic lasted until 1970 ( here and here ).


After 3 months we already have 100,000 dead in the US from Covid-19
Where ever you go, there you are.
 
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Aaron747
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - May 2020

Fri May 22, 2020 4:32 pm

UpNAWAy wrote:
Over 800,000 Americans died of the Flu in 1969! And she didn't list fact she just listed her opinion!
Compare it to Pneumonia and flue by age groups shows one the real story, not the false fear story.


Incorrect. Two exclamation points in as many sentences also highlights your level of emotion, which calls into question ability to employ reason on this topic.

Dr. Etzioni stated the following, which you claim is mere opinion (without a substantive argument in evidence):

If all you did was look at the current COVID-19 projection, and compared it with the upper-end worst estimate of this year's flu season, you could say they are in the same ballpark.

But this is a faulty comparison. The deaths from these two illnesses are occurring under completely different circumstances.

The COVID-19 deaths are in the presence of a nearly national shutdown, with school and university closures and widespread practicing of social distancing. The flu deaths from last season occurred largely in the absence of all three interventions. What would the number of flu deaths be if every winter we locked down early in the season, in October or November, like we are doing now for COVID-19? That is the question to ask.

The takeaway here is that if we want to compare COVID-19 deaths with flu deaths, we need to do so under the same prevailing policies. We could compare reported COVID-19 deaths with the flu deaths expected under current work/school closures and social distancing policies. Alternatively, we could compare COVID-19 deaths expected in the absence of any of these interventions with the flu deaths already reported. Either way, we would not have hard data from past experience to work with. We would have to resort to modeling.


This is expert opinion on the criteria for comparison from a professional biostatistician. What conditions were present in the US in 1968 insofar as prevention, isolation, and social distancing? If you can provide data on that, then you can *begin* to have your comparison of that pandemic to this one. This is how scientific/mathematical reasoning works - illogical conflation of data or information from dissimilar circumstances and conditions is invalid, regardless of the subject.

She stated the fact that COVID-19 is occurring without a vaccine, as compared to flu, which has one every year. She also stated that COVID-19 deaths are being reported in the midst of extensive mitigation, as compared to the typical flu season. These facts are indisputable, no matter what you wish to portray.
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Aaron747
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - May 2020

Fri May 22, 2020 4:44 pm

scbriml wrote:
Aaron747 wrote:
You are entitled to your own opinion, but not your own facts. This woman who crunches numbers for a living, demonstrates why, in her professional analysis, claims like yours are totally erroneous.

https://timmermanreport.com/2020/04/why ... h-the-flu/


casinterest wrote:
The current fatality rates are currently much higher for Covid-19 than for the flu and pneumonia across all age groups.

https://www.livescience.com/covid-19-de ... eaths.html


Damn you both with your pesky facts. And your reason. And your science. :wink2:

America is on the cusp of 100,000 Covid-19 deaths in around four months from first case, and that's with measures taken. It beggars belief that idiots are still saying "It's just 'flu!" and "See, we didn't need to lose our rights and freedoms, it wasn't that bad!" :banghead:


Facts and reason are only pesky to those who attempt to misrepresent reality. :candle:
If you need someone to blame / throw a rock in the air / you'll hit someone guilty
 
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casinterest
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - May 2020

Fri May 22, 2020 6:50 pm

Here is hope for an effective treatment.



https://www.bbc.com/news/health-5275428 ... D=ref_fark

It has been found those with the most severe form of the disease have extremely low numbers of an immune cell called a T-cell.

T-cells clear infection from the body.

The clinical trial will evaluate if a drug called interleukin 7, known to boost T-cell numbers, can aid patients' recovery.

In a microlitre (0.001ml) drop of blood, normal healthy adults have between 2,000 and 4,000 T-cells, also called T lymphocytes.

The Covid patients the team tested had between 200-1,200.

'Extremely encouraging'
The researchers say these findings pave the way for them to develop a "fingerprint test" to check the levels of T-cells in the blood which could provide early indications of who might go on to develop more severe disease.

But it also provides the possibility for a specific treatment to reverse that immune cell decline.

Manu Shankar-Hari, a critical care consultant at Guy's and St Thomas' Hospital, said that around 70% of patients that he sees in intensive care with Covid-19 arrive with between 400-800 lymphocytes per microlitre. "When they start to recover, their lymphocyte level also starts to go back up," he added
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Aesma
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - May 2020

Sat May 23, 2020 4:40 pm

When you thought things couldn't get any dumber, the US comes to the rescue : https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/202 ... face-masks

Shops around the US make headlines for denying entry to those wearing masks


Another sign was posted by a Californian construction store earlier this month encouraging hugs but not masks.
New Technology is the name we give to stuff that doesn't work yet. Douglas Adams
 
blueflyer
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - May 2020

Sat May 23, 2020 9:00 pm

Aesma wrote:
When you thought things couldn't get any dumber, the US comes to the rescue
Shops around the US make headlines for denying entry to those wearing masks

This is the kind of stupidity that makes me firmly against granting businesses blanket liability waivers related to the corona virus. I am fine with waivers for actions they took or didn't take early on when everyone was still trying to figure out the best approach and their decision process was "reasonable," however they should bear the full liability for any and all acts taken against well-known, well-published scientific advice. Of course shoppers have the right not to patronize these shops, however some idiot will, and will get infected, and will in turn infect others who never set foot in these shops. These shops should be financially liable for the entire infection chain starting with their store's patient 0.
 
Jalap
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - May 2020

Sat May 23, 2020 10:26 pm

casinterest wrote:
How useful are the efforts of China, New Zealand, South Korea,Europe, Montana, Alaska, Hawaii to contain the disease going to be when the rest of the world is letting it spread?
We may be in for multiple waves of illness in these countries.

Still pretty usefull, I think. Because I believe none of those places is going to completely release the measures. They'll aim at measures that result in a lower than 1 reproduction rate untill there's a very good treatment or a vaccine.
They know there'll be some virus going around, all the time. Then it doesn't really matter if it's a traveller or a local with the virus. As long as this infected person doesn't infect more than 1 others.

Surely, travellers from places with higher infection rates will do some harm. But I don't think it'll make that much if a difference. As long as the traveller submits to the measures in the country he/she's in.
 
Jalap
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - May 2020

Sat May 23, 2020 10:38 pm

Antibodies in Stockholm far less than projected: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/ ... oronavirus

7% while they expected 25% by now.
Now the Swedish numbers make sense again. 25% with so few deaths was something I couldn't understand earlier. 7% brings the Swedish numbers pretty much on par with the rest of the world. A mortality rate of about 1%.

This is bad news, because herd immunity now seems pretty utopic to achieve without a huge bodycount.

It also is good news. because it means we can still have a fair amount of freedom without the virus spreading out of control.
Once you have eliminated most of the virus in you country or state or whatever, you can go to a Swedish-style set of measures untill there's a real solution.
 
flyguy89
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - May 2020

Sun May 24, 2020 12:34 am

Possible stupid question: why is deployment of rapid testing not being discussed as a way to allow some limited large-scale events and more leeway in international travel? Is it so prohibitively expensive for example for the UK or US for example to rapid test all inbound passengers, or some other reason I'm missing?

Even domestically in, say, Las Vegas could local authorities just rapid test arriving visitors and therefore afford some looser restrictions and more confidence in restricting the spread?
 
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Aaron747
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - May 2020

Sun May 24, 2020 1:39 am

flyguy89 wrote:
Possible stupid question: why is deployment of rapid testing not being discussed as a way to allow some limited large-scale events and more leeway in international travel? Is it so prohibitively expensive for example for the UK or US for example to rapid test all inbound passengers, or some other reason I'm missing?

Even domestically in, say, Las Vegas could local authorities just rapid test arriving visitors and therefore afford some looser restrictions and more confidence in restricting the spread?


I’m sure it has been discussed and would doubtless have high value toward loose restrictions and confidence, as you say. As far as I know the stumbling block is accuracy - the 10-min test device from Abbott has 94% accuracy in studies funded by them, but outside studies have been worrisome enough that the FDA issued a caution on the test’s accuracy.

https://www.npr.org/sections/coronaviru ... virus-test

If companies and facilities can be confident a rapid test device is 95% accurate, there’s no way that wouldn’t dramatically change the landscape if widely deployed.
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continental004
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - May 2020

Mon May 25, 2020 4:26 pm

Here in the US, we're almost at 100,000 deaths from Covid-19 as of now. Yet in 2017 the following numbers of people died from these causes, according to the CDC:

647,000 from heart disease
599,000 from cancer
160,000 from chronic lower respiratory diseases
121,000 from Alzheimer's
83,000 from diabetes
55,000 from flu and pneumonia
47,000 from suicide

Where is their New York Times front page cover?

Also reading the front page story, most of the victims were old and their days were already numbered anyway.
 
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Aaron747
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - May 2020

Mon May 25, 2020 4:45 pm

continental004 wrote:
Here in the US, we're almost at 100,000 deaths from Covid-19 as of now. Yet in 2017 the following numbers of people died from these causes, according to the CDC:

647,000 from heart disease
599,000 from cancer
160,000 from chronic lower respiratory diseases
121,000 from Alzheimer's
83,000 from diabetes
55,000 from flu and pneumonia
47,000 from suicide

Where is their New York Times front page cover?

Also reading the front page story, most of the victims were old and their days were already numbered anyway.


Your attempt to distract and downplay is patently unscientific. None of those things are comparable.

Heart disease is preventable, and its processes are well understood. Cancer is such a big deal that it receives billions in research annually and multiple carcinogenic compounds are outright banned. It’s also constantly in the news.

You mention flu and pneumonia when just a few posts above there is a biostatistician’s detailed account of why they cannot logically be compared to COVID, which was novel and has killed 100K in spite of aggressive mitigation. Cannot understand the thought process at work here...must be feelings before facts.
If you need someone to blame / throw a rock in the air / you'll hit someone guilty
 
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casinterest
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - May 2020

Mon May 25, 2020 5:06 pm

One only needs to look at Georgia's Covid-19 Daily Case rate to see what is coming.

https://dph.georgia.gov/covid-19-daily-status-report

They hit the bottom of their curve, and the next coming weeks will show the numbers going up greatly.

The 14 day window slider bar which is at May 11 currently shows the lowest reach. All the rest of the days since are showing the moving average going up. And those days are not official yet. The tail at the end is only because they are still awaiting data for those days.
Where ever you go, there you are.
 
continental004
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - May 2020

Mon May 25, 2020 5:29 pm

Aaron747 wrote:
continental004 wrote:
Here in the US, we're almost at 100,000 deaths from Covid-19 as of now. Yet in 2017 the following numbers of people died from these causes, according to the CDC:

647,000 from heart disease
599,000 from cancer
160,000 from chronic lower respiratory diseases
121,000 from Alzheimer's
83,000 from diabetes
55,000 from flu and pneumonia
47,000 from suicide

Where is their New York Times front page cover?

Also reading the front page story, most of the victims were old and their days were already numbered anyway.


Your attempt to distract and downplay is patently unscientific. None of those things are comparable.

Heart disease is preventable, and its processes are well understood. Cancer is such a big deal that it receives billions in research annually and multiple carcinogenic compounds are outright banned. It’s also constantly in the news.

You mention flu and pneumonia when just a few posts above there is a biostatistician’s detailed account of why they cannot logically be compared to COVID, which was novel and has killed 100K in spite of aggressive mitigation. Cannot understand the thought process at work here...must be feelings before facts.


So are those deaths from preventable and well-understood diseases any less meaningful? I think not.
 
blueflyer
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - May 2020

Mon May 25, 2020 5:41 pm

continental004 wrote:
Here in the US, we're almost at 100,000 deaths from Covid-19 as of now. Yet in 2017 the following numbers of people died from these causes, according to the CDC:

Current estimates are that the virus will stop spreading when we reach 70% herd immunity (70% of the population has the virus). In the US, that is 200 million people, a number we could have reached as early as 2021 without any effort at slowing down the spread of the virus.

At the current mortality rate of 6%, 200 million infected people translate to 12 million deaths, however that number is certainly too low for two reasons:
a) No hospital system in the US will be able to cope with whatever their share is of a total of 200 million infections in less than 18 months, people will die for lack of ventilators, drugs, care, etc.
b) In many states, the criteria to be counted as a Covid death are narrow. For instance, death from (for example) a cardiac attack due to the strain imposed on the body by the virus are not Covid deaths.

At the opposite end of the spectrum, countries that count every death where Covid was a factor as a Covid death are reporting a 16% mortality rate. So without any effort at stopping or slowing down the spreading of the virus, we'd be looking at 12 to 32 million deaths in the US alone between now and sometime in 2021.

How big do you need the headline to be?

https://hub.jhu.edu/2020/04/30/herd-imm ... ronavirus/
https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/from-our-ex ... conception
https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/data/mortality
https://www.washington.edu/news/2020/05 ... -symptoms/
Last edited by blueflyer on Mon May 25, 2020 5:44 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
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Aaron747
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - May 2020

Mon May 25, 2020 5:42 pm

continental004 wrote:
Aaron747 wrote:
continental004 wrote:
Here in the US, we're almost at 100,000 deaths from Covid-19 as of now. Yet in 2017 the following numbers of people died from these causes, according to the CDC:

647,000 from heart disease
599,000 from cancer
160,000 from chronic lower respiratory diseases
121,000 from Alzheimer's
83,000 from diabetes
55,000 from flu and pneumonia
47,000 from suicide

Where is their New York Times front page cover?

Also reading the front page story, most of the victims were old and their days were already numbered anyway.


Your attempt to distract and downplay is patently unscientific. None of those things are comparable.

Heart disease is preventable, and its processes are well understood. Cancer is such a big deal that it receives billions in research annually and multiple carcinogenic compounds are outright banned. It’s also constantly in the news.

You mention flu and pneumonia when just a few posts above there is a biostatistician’s detailed account of why they cannot logically be compared to COVID, which was novel and has killed 100K in spite of aggressive mitigation. Cannot understand the thought process at work here...must be feelings before facts.


So are those deaths from preventable and well-understood diseases any less meaningful? I think not.


This thread is not about the stratification of meaning for death. If you want to discuss that, start a new one.
If you need someone to blame / throw a rock in the air / you'll hit someone guilty
 
olle
Posts: 2066
Joined: Tue Feb 06, 2007 3:38 am

Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - May 2020

Mon May 25, 2020 7:19 pm

In swedeb right now the number of death per week start to get down to around 30 per week during the last few weeks and currently even lower;

https://i0.wp.com/d3jo9v3q67jiro.cloudf ... er_dag.png
 
olle
Posts: 2066
Joined: Tue Feb 06, 2007 3:38 am

Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - May 2020

Mon May 25, 2020 8:11 pm

Danish people waits in traffic jams for hours to enter Sweden for go shopping and restaurants.

Numbers of covid cases in higher in copenhagen then in Skåne / Scania.

https://images.hdsydsvenskan.se/980x588 ... N3-hlM.jpg
 
SESGDL
Posts: 2896
Joined: Sat Jan 13, 2001 6:25 am

Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - May 2020

Mon May 25, 2020 9:52 pm

blueflyer wrote:
continental004 wrote:
Here in the US, we're almost at 100,000 deaths from Covid-19 as of now. Yet in 2017 the following numbers of people died from these causes, according to the CDC:

Current estimates are that the virus will stop spreading when we reach 70% herd immunity (70% of the population has the virus). In the US, that is 200 million people, a number we could have reached as early as 2021 without any effort at slowing down the spread of the virus.

At the current mortality rate of 6%, 200 million infected people translate to 12 million deaths, however that number is certainly too low for two reasons:
a) No hospital system in the US will be able to cope with whatever their share is of a total of 200 million infections in less than 18 months, people will die for lack of ventilators, drugs, care, etc.
b) In many states, the criteria to be counted as a Covid death are narrow. For instance, death from (for example) a cardiac attack due to the strain imposed on the body by the virus are not Covid deaths.

At the opposite end of the spectrum, countries that count every death where Covid was a factor as a Covid death are reporting a 16% mortality rate. So without any effort at stopping or slowing down the spreading of the virus, we'd be looking at 12 to 32 million deaths in the US alone between now and sometime in 2021.

How big do you need the headline to be?

https://hub.jhu.edu/2020/04/30/herd-imm ... ronavirus/
https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/from-our-ex ... conception
https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/data/mortality
https://www.washington.edu/news/2020/05 ... -symptoms/


Sorry, but the mortality rate is not 6%. That’s the number of people who’ve died against the number that’s been tested and confirmed. Aren’t we continuing to hear that upwards of 30% of cases are asymptomatic? These people are not included in the total number that you’re referring to. Also, nowhere has any published statistic cited a death count that high. The original publication out of Britain (which was likely the biggest study contributing to the worldwide lockdowns) estimated more than 2 million in the US without any risk mitigation. Now, somehow that number has climbed to 12 to 32 million? This is a dangerous virus, but it’s not Ebola. The vast majority of people contracting it are not dying. While the mortality rate for those over 60 is likely much higher than 6%, it’s also considerably lower than that for people under the age of 60. If that many people were at risk of dying, I think you’d still see most of the world completely locked down or we’d see a good portion of Sweden’s population dying. If the numbers are truly as bad as you’re saying, then we can just kiss any semblance of our old lives goodbye because without a vaccine or an effective treatment, life as we knew it is over.

Hitting over 100,000 deaths in the US is devastating and horrific, but no one has ever estimated that 12 to 32 million deaths would occur in the US. Things are bad enough, let’s not overreact and make them even worse.

Jeremy
 
blueflyer
Posts: 4352
Joined: Tue Jan 31, 2006 4:17 am

Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - May 2020

Tue May 26, 2020 4:08 am

SESGDL wrote:
The original publication out of Britain (which was likely the biggest study contributing to the worldwide lockdowns) estimated more than 2 million in the US without any risk mitigation. Now, somehow that number has climbed to 12 to 32 million? This is a dangerous virus, but it’s not Ebola.

It's not my numbers though. If you comb through the links in my original post, you'll see absent any mitigation whatsoever, we could reach 70% of the US population infected "in a matter of a few months" per John Hopkins (as of end of April). The rest is math based again on data from these links.

The point is not to claim that it is our outlook, far from it, but to show how pointless comparing the current death count against other diseases, considering the extraordinary measures that were taken to limit the spread of the virus, and where we could be if nothing had been done.

It is purely hypothetical because I firmly believe there would have been some (re)action at some point, be it at 500,000 or 1 million death or, hopefully earlier. At the same time, if that reaction wouldn't come fast enough, there would be an unpredictable number of preventable deaths due to structural issues, be it the collapse of the healthcare system in the cities or states most affected, or emergency management professionals abandoning their post out of fear, etc.

Though even if the real number would end up being closer to 2 millions, it still makes current number comparisons with other causes of fatalities useless.
 
tommy1808
Posts: 12888
Joined: Thu Nov 21, 2013 3:24 pm

Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - May 2020

Tue May 26, 2020 5:21 am

SESGDL wrote:
blueflyer wrote:
continental004 wrote:
Here in the US, we're almost at 100,000 deaths from Covid-19 as of now. Yet in 2017 the following numbers of people died from these causes, according to the CDC:

Current estimates are that the virus will stop spreading when we reach 70% herd immunity (70% of the population has the virus). In the US, that is 200 million people, a number we could have reached as early as 2021 without any effort at slowing down the spread of the virus.

At the current mortality rate of 6%, 200 million infected people translate to 12 million deaths, however that number is certainly too low for two reasons:
a) No hospital system in the US will be able to cope with whatever their share is of a total of 200 million infections in less than 18 months, people will die for lack of ventilators, drugs, care, etc.
b) In many states, the criteria to be counted as a Covid death are narrow. For instance, death from (for example) a cardiac attack due to the strain imposed on the body by the virus are not Covid deaths.

At the opposite end of the spectrum, countries that count every death where Covid was a factor as a Covid death are reporting a 16% mortality rate. So without any effort at stopping or slowing down the spreading of the virus, we'd be looking at 12 to 32 million deaths in the US alone between now and sometime in 2021.

How big do you need the headline to be?

https://hub.jhu.edu/2020/04/30/herd-imm ... ronavirus/
https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/from-our-ex ... conception
https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/data/mortality
https://www.washington.edu/news/2020/05 ... -symptoms/


Sorry, but the mortality rate is not 6%. That’s the number of people who’ve died against the number that’s been tested and confirmed. Aren’t we continuing to hear that upwards of 30% of cases are asymptomatic? These people are not included in the total number that you’re referring to.


Only some of those asymptomatic people are not in the statistics. No matter how bad your contact tracing is, you will catch some of them. So excluding all of them is just convenient theory daily, as we not just hear that, we also hear about people dying from it without making the count..... it is also very conveniently ignoring that some of the currently sick people will be dead in the next 14 days.

Infected right now: 1.662.768‬ people (this number obviously already includes people that are going to die in the following days)
Death right now: 98.223 (obviously not including those of the above that will die in the coming days)

that is 5.9%, even minus your 30% that is still 4.1%.

Wow.. only 8 Million dead Americans if this is allowed to just burn through the population.

But hey, according to John Hopkins less that 400k have recovered, plus 100k dead, that 500k people that are through with Corona..... so we know the fatality rate is seemingly no higher than 20%.
Quite obviously six percent is more correct than 4.1.

And.... what is so great about just 8 Million US citizens dying in any case? Especially when they could have been less than 10k.

best regards
Thomas
Well, there is prophecy in the bible after all: 2 Timothy 3:1-6
 
tommy1808
Posts: 12888
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - May 2020

Tue May 26, 2020 5:25 am

blueflyer wrote:
SESGDL wrote:
The original publication out of Britain (which was likely the biggest study contributing to the worldwide lockdowns) estimated more than 2 million in the US without any risk mitigation. Now, somehow that number has climbed to 12 to 32 million? This is a dangerous virus, but it’s not Ebola.

It's not my numbers though. If you comb through the links in my original post, you'll see absent any mitigation whatsoever, we could reach 70% of the US population infected "in a matter of a few months" per John Hopkins (as of end of April). The rest is math based again on data from these links.

The point is not to claim that it is our outlook, far from it, but to show how pointless comparing the current death count against other diseases, considering the extraordinary measures that were taken to limit the spread of the virus, and where we could be if nothing had been done.

It is purely hypothetical because I firmly believe there would have been some (re)action at some point, be it at 500,000 or 1 million death or, hopefully earlier. At the same time, if that reaction wouldn't come fast enough, there would be an unpredictable number of preventable deaths due to structural issues, be it the collapse of the healthcare system in the cities or states most affected, or emergency management professionals abandoning their post out of fear, etc.

Though even if the real number would end up being closer to 2 millions, it still makes current number comparisons with other causes of fatalities useless.


Keep in mind that, at the time of the study, it was assumed it kills about ~1% ish of the people it infects.

best regards
Thomas
Well, there is prophecy in the bible after all: 2 Timothy 3:1-6
 
User avatar
Francoflier
Posts: 5265
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - May 2020

Tue May 26, 2020 7:09 am

Well, so much for Hydroxychloroquine:

https://www.bbc.com/news/live/world-52803180

It might actually make things worse... Is anyone really surprised?
I wonder if Trump is still taking it.

tommy1808 wrote:
Only some of those asymptomatic people are not in the statistics.


That is an assumption on your behalf. The truth is, until large-scale randomized antibody testing is made on the population, we will not know how prevalent the disease is.

As we stand, mostly people who approach their doctors or hospitals with symptoms are tested, along with their close ones and the healthcare professionals who look after them. Those who die, on the other hand, are more accurately counted for obvious reasons. This means that your denominator at this stage is still largely unknown, or at least very inaccurate.

Some estimate that there may be up to 10 times as many cases as those recorded.
A simple look at the figures in the middle east countries such a Qatar and the UAE, or in Singapore, where testing is much more prevalent as authorities have decided to actively test as much of the population as possible (i.e. not just those with symptoms), shows a death rate well below 1%.

The antibody study in Sweden mentioned above would also indicate that the number of cases is many times higher than the number of reported cases.

Those who make prediction based on the current figures are bound to have it completely wrong. Authorities are only now starting to study the real spread of the disease, and it will take a while before we can draw an accurate picture.
I'll do my own airline. With Blackjack. And hookers. In fact, forget the airline.
 
olle
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - May 2020

Tue May 26, 2020 7:19 am

The "R" number in Berlin reaches 1.37;

https://www.berliner-zeitung.de/mensch- ... t-li.84332

It means that the requirements for the new rules in Germany are breached in this area.

BerlinFor the third day in a row, Berlin breaks the threshold set by the Senate with the reproductive factor of 1.20 - for the first time the Senate infection signal for one of three indicators turns red. Health Senator Dilek Kalayci (SPD) informed the Health Committee on Monday morning that the Reproduction factor according to the latest report from the Robert Koch Institute for Berlin is 1.37. That is also the current peak in the comparison of the federal states. According to the administration, the reproduction factor was 1.23 and 1.22 on the previous days.

The reproductive factor indicates how many people a person infected with Corona infects on average. The following applies: the lower the reproductive factor, the better. If the reproductive rate is over 1, an infected person infects more than another person on average - and the number of new infections overall increases. If the rate is less than 1, one infected person is less infected than another - and the number of new infections every day drops. In its traffic light system, the Senate has set limits at 1.1 (yellow traffic light) and 1.2 (red traffic light).
 
olle
Posts: 2066
Joined: Tue Feb 06, 2007 3:38 am

Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - May 2020

Tue May 26, 2020 7:31 am

Jalap wrote:
Antibodies in Stockholm far less than projected: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/ ... oronavirus

7% while they expected 25% by now.
Now the Swedish numbers make sense again. 25% with so few deaths was something I couldn't understand earlier. 7% brings the Swedish numbers pretty much on par with the rest of the world. A mortality rate of about 1%.

This is bad news, because herd immunity now seems pretty utopic to achieve without a huge bodycount.

It also is good news. because it means we can still have a fair amount of freedom without the virus spreading out of control.
Once you have eliminated most of the virus in you country or state or whatever, you can go to a Swedish-style set of measures untill there's a real solution.


Independent of the numbers and how they are counted the R number for spreading is going down fast with less cases in hospital for the stockholm region. The death rate decreasing and stockholm is close back to normal levels.

SCB
INDEPENDENCE REDUCES TOTALLY, BUT INCREASES IN WESTERN GOTHLAND (Direct)
2020-05-25 10:43
STOCKHOLM (News Agency Direct) The number of deaths per week continues to decline in Sweden after the peak in April, according to preliminary statistics from Statistics Sweden until May 22.

"The number of deaths per week continues to decrease since week 15," said Tomas Johansson, investigator at Statistics Sweden's Statistics on Population and Economic Welfare, in a comment.

Statistics Sweden notes that while the so-called mortality rate, higher deaths this year compared to the average for the period 2015-2019, is dropping in Stockholm County, it appears to be rising in Västra Götaland.

"Since the beginning of the corona pandemic, mortality has mainly been concentrated in Stockholm County and its neighboring countries. Now it is dropping there, but at the same time it is starting to become high in Västra Götaland County," says Tomas Johansson.

The differences between Sweden's three metropolitan municipalities are large. Both Stockholm and Gothenburg have had a significant death toll in April and May, while Malmö has not shown any excess mortality at all.

"However, the mortality rate in Stockholm municipality has started to approach normal levels, while the mortality rate in Gothenburg in May has been higher than for Stockholm," says Tomas Johansson.

https://www.avanza.se/placera/telegram/ ... aland.html
 
olle
Posts: 2066
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - May 2020

Tue May 26, 2020 7:35 am

olle wrote:
Danish people waits in traffic jams for hours to enter Sweden for go shopping and restaurants.

Numbers of covid cases in higher in copenhagen then in Skåne / Scania.

https://images.hdsydsvenskan.se/980x588 ... N3-hlM.jpg


While the Covid is not much present in southern Sweden we now have a invasion of danish people from Copenhagen where covid is more present.Let us see how that turns out considering that sweden is about to be much less effected of Covid while Denmark might be going up if the same effect is seen after the lockdown there like we seen in Berlin with R numbers close to 1.4.
 
tommy1808
Posts: 12888
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - May 2020

Tue May 26, 2020 7:41 am

Francoflier wrote:
Well, so much for Hydroxychloroquine:

https://www.bbc.com/news/live/world-52803180

It might actually make things worse... Is anyone really surprised?
I wonder if Trump is still taking it.

tommy1808 wrote:
Only some of those asymptomatic people are not in the statistics.


That is an assumption on your behalf


it isn´t. It is a rather obvious statistical fact. We can discuss how large "some" exactly is, but assuming none of those asymptomatic people where found in tests is so ridiculous it borders on insane.

Some estimate that there may be up to 10 times as many cases as those recorded.


"Some estimate" .... right. Here far less than 2% of all tests are positive, which is the end of any "10 times more" notion.You don´t even get close to 10 times more when doing contact tracing, where the number of cases is pretty much guaranteed to be much higher than in a random sample. That line of propaganda is dead, and has been for quite a bit.

A simple look at the figures in the middle east countries such a Qatar and the UAE, or in Singapore, where testing is much more prevalent as authorities have decided to actively test as much of the population as possible (i.e. not just those with symptoms), shows a death rate well below 1%..


yeah... lets ignore that the Infections in those countries, especially Singapore are almost exclusively among young, healthy, foreign workers and the Virus was almost completely kept out of the general population.
And what do those places have in common, that may dramatically reduce the virus load people get infected by, effecting the risk of actually dying? Oh yeah, lots of sun, lots of heat.

We already knew for a while that fatality rate can be at/around 0.1% among the young and healthy...that is the best case, and obviously just the best case, as the US would need to have about 100 Million infected, and there is no sign its even remotely close to that, to explain the number of death at the "far less than 1%" rate in Singapore.

best regards
Thomas
Well, there is prophecy in the bible after all: 2 Timothy 3:1-6
 
olle
Posts: 2066
Joined: Tue Feb 06, 2007 3:38 am

Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - May 2020

Tue May 26, 2020 8:08 am

tommy1808 wrote:
Francoflier wrote:
Well, so much for Hydroxychloroquine:

https://www.bbc.com/news/live/world-52803180

It might actually make things worse... Is anyone really surprised?
I wonder if Trump is still taking it.

tommy1808 wrote:
Only some of those asymptomatic people are not in the statistics.


That is an assumption on your behalf


it isn´t. It is a rather obvious statistical fact. We can discuss how large "some" exactly is, but assuming none of those asymptomatic people where found in tests is so ridiculous it borders on insane.

Some estimate that there may be up to 10 times as many cases as those recorded.


If young and healthy gets infected without spread to older population they might be protected.



"Some estimate" .... right. Here far less than 2% of all tests are positive, which is the end of any "10 times more" notion.You don´t even get close to 10 times more when doing contact tracing, where the number of cases is pretty much guaranteed to be much higher than in a random sample. That line of propaganda is dead, and has been for quite a bit.

A simple look at the figures in the middle east countries such a Qatar and the UAE, or in Singapore, where testing is much more prevalent as authorities have decided to actively test as much of the population as possible (i.e. not just those with symptoms), shows a death rate well below 1%..


yeah... lets ignore that the Infections in those countries, especially Singapore are almost exclusively among young, healthy, foreign workers and the Virus was almost completely kept out of the general population.
And what do those places have in common, that may dramatically reduce the virus load people get infected by, effecting the risk of actually dying? Oh yeah, lots of sun, lots of heat.

We already knew for a while that fatality rate can be at/around 0.1% among the young and healthy...that is the best case, and obviously just the best case, as the US would need to have about 100 Million infected, and there is no sign its even remotely close to that, to explain the number of death at the "far less than 1%" rate in Singapore.

best regards
Thomas
 
User avatar
Francoflier
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - May 2020

Tue May 26, 2020 9:03 am

tommy1808 wrote:
it isn´t. It is a rather obvious statistical fact. We can discuss how large "some" exactly is, but assuming none of those asymptomatic people where found in tests is so ridiculous it borders on insane.


While it is evident that asymptomatic cases were found among testing, it doesn't change the fact that testing is still mostly limited to people showing symptoms and requiring healthcare, their close contacts and health workers. Testing is still limited everywhere in the World and most of this capacity is reserved where it is needed. We are very far from testing a representative portion of the population, which still hides the true number of infections.

You are assuming that most people who contract it will show symptoms and will get tested, which is far from an established fact.
As you said yourself, younger age groups are much less at risk of severe complications and thus much less likely to exhibit symptoms strong enough to warrant a visit to the doctor. It wouldn't surprise me if, given the general panic and stigmatization, most would rather not consult or get tested at all for mild symptoms, for fear of getting themselves and their families quarantined.

A top heavy age pyramid can go some ways to explain the increased mortality rate in relatively older western nations, but it still doesn't tell us what proportion of the younger population is infected.
I like to refer to the Rystad Energy report, made by people much more knowledgeable than me (granted, not a high bar to clear...), and updated weekly:

https://www.rystadenergy.com/newsevents ... 19-report/

While we are far from herd immunity, there are indications that it could be achieved with much less than a majority of the population having been exposed, thanks to super spreaders.
Of note is their estimate that close to 10x more people are infected than reported cases. The Spanish study estimating that close to 5% of the population has been exposed would lend credence to this, as 'only' 290k cases were reported in Spain, yet 5% of the population is roughly 2.3M people.

As the epicenter of the disease now shifts to less wealthy nations, one can expect the under-reporting to accentuate.

So, yes, I think it is pretty clear that there are much more actual cases out there, may they be mildly symptomatic or asymptomatic, than there are actual reported cases.

The mortality rate is still TBD, and likely much less than the 5 or 6% you claim.
I'll do my own airline. With Blackjack. And hookers. In fact, forget the airline.
 
tommy1808
Posts: 12888
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - May 2020

Tue May 26, 2020 9:28 am

Francoflier wrote:
tommy1808 wrote:
it isn´t. It is a rather obvious statistical fact. We can discuss how large "some" exactly is, but assuming none of those asymptomatic people where found in tests is so ridiculous it borders on insane.


While it is evident that asymptomatic cases were found among testing, it doesn't change the fact that testing is still mostly limited to people showing symptoms and requiring healthcare, their close contacts and health workers. Testing is still limited everywhere in the World and most of this capacity is reserved where it is needed. We are very far from testing a representative portion of the population, which still hides the true number of infections.


So... almost 99 of 100 symptomatic pople are now testing negative apparently? By far most people testing negative where asymptomatic.... that is what contact tracing is: testing each and every asymptomatic person an infected person had contact with.
They are obviously not a cross section of the general population, but i would like to see you try an argument why people that had contact with an infected person should not test positive at a higher rate than the general public around them.

Under reported.. sure. By an order of magnitude? Not even close.

The mortality rate is still TBD, and likely much less than the 5 or 6% you claim.


its above 0.6%, or over a million dead for the US, even if that ridiculous 10x idea is true, and below 20%. And we know it gets nasty if it makes it into the Senior Population, just look at Italy´s 15% or 11% in Spain. Germany has 4.6% and not all that much room for missed cases.....

best regards
Thomas
Well, there is prophecy in the bible after all: 2 Timothy 3:1-6
 
IgorD
Posts: 37
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - May 2020

Tue May 26, 2020 10:50 am

I can speak for the Netherlands, a country of some 17 million population.
In mid April, a sampling of blood test gave a 3% population to be with antibodies, which is a sign that a person had corona infection https://www.volkskrant.nl/nieuws-achter ... ~b827127f/

At this moment, it is estimated that some 5% of the population had the infection. This translates into some 850 000 people.The official death count is 5 830 people today. That would give us an infection mortality rate of 0,686%. Taking into account excess deaths in the country (i.e. not all COVID-related death are counted as such), the number of death can be estimated as around 10 000, which implies an infection death rate of close to 1,2%.

This is 10 times worse than the seasonal flu, but not that scary 5+% as some here say.

However, we need to be careful with interpretation: for some fragile groups (e.g. old age, preexisting conditions, etc) the virus can be very deadly. This also means that infection mortality rate is very dependent on how far the virus has spread among the most susceptible. If it circulates only among the young and healthy, the death rate would be low; if it circulates among the old, especially in nursing homes, as it seems happened in the Netherlands, the rate will be higher.
 
IgorD
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - May 2020

Tue May 26, 2020 11:00 am

I should add that the official count of positive tests in the Netherlands is (almost) meaningless information because when the outbreak was at its worst, testing was available only to those people who suffered so much as to be immediately admitted to the hospitals. The elderly were mostly not tasted. This fact is accepted by the RIVM (National Institute for Public Health and the Environment). Thus, the count of cases is only indicative in the Netherlands, and I suppose in most other countries too.
 
tommy1808
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - May 2020

Tue May 26, 2020 11:24 am

IgorD wrote:
I can speak for the Netherlands, a country of some 17 million population.
In mid April, a sampling of blood test gave a 3% population to be with antibodies, which is a sign that a person had corona infection https://www.volkskrant.nl/nieuws-achter ... ~b827127f/

At this moment, it is estimated that some 5% of the population had the infection. This translates into some 850 000 people.The official death count is 5 830 people today. That would give us an infection mortality rate of 0,686%. Taking into account excess deaths in the country (i.e. not all COVID-related death are counted as such), the number of death can be estimated as around 10 000, which implies an infection death rate of close to 1,2%.


You have to add the people that tested positive, will die, but haven't yet
That won't get you from 1.2 to 4-5% of course but a good nursing home outbreak can get iffy quickly.

Is excess death already corrected for fewer death by e.g. car accidents?

Best regards
Thomas
Well, there is prophecy in the bible after all: 2 Timothy 3:1-6
 
IgorD
Posts: 37
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - May 2020

Tue May 26, 2020 12:20 pm

The excess deaths are not corrected for other reasons. The registered COVID death account for 50-60% of the excess death, so the rest was simply attributed to the disease.
And sadly, we don't have a decline in traffic death due to corona -- these are also comparatively small compared to the corona death numbers. Annually some 600 die in traffic, while as I said above, there are already 5 830 registered corona deaths.

@tommy1808 You have to add the people that tested positive, will die, but haven't yet

This is not needed as we are way past the peak. We have already daily hospital admittances mostly in single digits, as well as daily single digit death counts (not everyday though, as today's numbers are higher). So there is no large pipeline of sick people, a part of whom will die soon. The infection death rate of some 1% should hold.
 
olle
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - May 2020

Tue May 26, 2020 12:49 pm

Comparing the death rate this year compared to earlier years gives an indication if the official numbers for Covid death is closethe correct numbers;

Compared to the last 5 years we have

a number of covid death
a number of death caused that people do not get correct treatment for other diagnosis
less death in traffic

Some countries like Sweden and Belgium have number that make sense. Some like Italy, UK, germany and spain has to understand why a number of of thousand people in some countries as many as more then 10 000 suddenly died in April until now.

Some countries like Sweden and Belgium even has the problem to explain that while the excess death numbers in Corona reported is much higher then they should be consider the death rate. In Sweden and Belgium it seems like people dying much less in heart attacks and cancer then normal if we shall believe the statistics.
 
User avatar
casinterest
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - May 2020

Tue May 26, 2020 4:51 pm

+100,000 now dead in the USA.
China's official death toll is 4600+

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
Where ever you go, there you are.
 
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trpmb6
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - May 2020

Tue May 26, 2020 5:41 pm

casinterest wrote:
+100,000 now dead in the USA.
China's official death toll is 4600+

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/


If there is one thing the world can at least agree upon now it is that China is Full of Sh!t.
 
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casinterest
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - May 2020

Tue May 26, 2020 5:48 pm

trpmb6 wrote:
casinterest wrote:
+100,000 now dead in the USA.
China's official death toll is 4600+

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/


If there is one thing the world can at least agree upon now it is that China is Full of Sh!t.

I can deeply suspect China's number is off, but I am doubting it has reached the level the US did. We were not as hardcore on the shut down as they were.

https://www.bbc.com/news/business-52754782

Their factories are recovering, and the paradox is that we will still need them through our coming recovery, if it happens anytime soon.
Where ever you go, there you are.
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