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Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - May 2020

Posted: Tue May 05, 2020 6:23 pm
by AirWorthy99
N212R wrote:
AirWorthy99 wrote:
1) different virus strain

This is something that doesn't make much sense, really.


Happy to agree with you. The FL evidence seems clearly to advocate for something besides the virus strain "theory".


Not an expert here, so I might just be wrong completely.

However, its extremely strange how different things are with this virus everywhere. In years time we will have a better picture of how this thing acted when all the data is available.

Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - May 2020

Posted: Tue May 05, 2020 6:41 pm
by frmrCapCadet
Trump went on the attack again, the VP and Mnuchin with him at the Lincoln Memorial, no medical advisers. One of his White House committees released a projection of 3000 deaths a day by the end of the month (that is a yearly rate of just over a million). Does anyone have any idea about what his strategy is? This all seems unhinged.

Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - May 2020

Posted: Tue May 05, 2020 6:48 pm
by GDB
I think the last word in your post nailed it. Again though, what was expected with a racist, ignorant, failed businessman, sex pest, 'reality' show host? The latter is how most Americans knew him, otherwise an obscure figure from the 80's and 90's.

I suppose he was trying to compare himself to Lincoln, well a Lincoln in the form of an old, big, beat up car.

Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - May 2020

Posted: Tue May 05, 2020 6:58 pm
by casinterest
trpmb6 wrote:
Well I wrote something and network outage wiped out what I had said.

We do know the virus is mutating... RNA viruses mutate quickly. So you could see different countries being impacted differently. In fact we know they are.

It's possible the virus was far more widespread and of real no consequence until it mutated in Wuhan and became much more severe. If I recall, Covid19 was only 70% similar to the so called bat coronavirus they were claiming it originated from. Well, that implies it's mutated quite a bit.



The WHO is trying to trace it all down, but now that Trump pulled funding US support may be delayed, but there are ancedotes of the virus appearing in France in December, and according to your story from earlier there is a chance the virus was in the US in December as well.

https://www.nbcnews.com/health/health-n ... s-n1200521

A French hospital which retested old samples from pneumonia patients discovered that it treated a man who had COVID-19 as early as Dec. 27, nearly a month before the French government confirmed its first cases.

......

However, the French patient, a fishmonger, is not thought to have a direct link to China or a history of recent travel and experts say the French case requires more investigation.

Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - May 2020

Posted: Tue May 05, 2020 8:28 pm
by StarAC17
Jalap wrote:
Eyad89 wrote:
Or, we can say since the US, UK, Spain, France, and Italy are popular tourist destinations for the Chinese that the virus got spread more heavily in those countries before any lockdown or measures were taken? You cannot say that about the Scandinavian countries. Plus, the population density makes a huge difference, and that was in favour of the Scandinavian countries.

The Swedish experiment pretty much proves that it's possible to have far more infections with still a relatively low mortality rate. Your argument makes sense looking at numbers early April. But not today.
It doesn't explain the (very probable) high Swedish infection rate while maintaining a relatively low mortality rate.
The UK tried the Swedish approach, but changed its mind. It didn't work there like it did in Sweden. Same with the Netherlands, they also wanted to go herd immunity but ended up with pretty strict measures.

Hence, there must be other factors in play. A mystery for now.
(A mystery that needs te be answered before the whole world can go teh Swedish way, let this be very clear)


Here are some hypotheses that I have about Sweden.

    - They have told their highest risk people to isolate (those over 70 and with pre-existing conditions)
    - A more organized test and trace program to get the ones who are positive quarantined
    - They probably have a better handle on long term care facilities and those are where a lot of the deaths have come from, in Canada it's 70-80% of them.

One of the Toronto radio hosts says that if people at the most risk die in the next 2 years (or before a vaccine or is available) if they contract this. Then Sweden was right all along and the deaths came quickly and not spread out

trpmb6 wrote:
Well I wrote something and network outage wiped out what I had said.

We do know the virus is mutating... RNA viruses mutate quickly. So you could see different countries being impacted differently. In fact we know they are.

It's possible the virus was far more widespread and of real no consequence until it mutated in Wuhan and became much more severe. If I recall, Covid19 was only 70% similar to the so called bat coronavirus they were claiming it originated from. Well, that implies it's mutated quite a bit.


There may be mutations but I think largely it is the same virus, this appears to mutate more slowly than the flu which is good for vaccine envelopment.
Also there is more and more mounting evidence that this virus has been present in the population long before the cases in Wuhan which would explain the different impacts on different populations.

AirWorthy99 wrote:
N212R wrote:
1) different virus strain


This is something that doesn't make much sense, really.

Here in Florida we had people coming by the droves from NY down here during the height of the virus, and yet look at the death rates of FL compared to NY. Lots of seniors who retire in Florida that come from NY.

We had flights coming from Milan landing daily at Miami airport during the crisis. Daily from Spain at Miami airport, not to mention the rest of the airports in the state with the connections. And the imported international cases that came to Florida most of them came from those European hotpots, and later from New York. So if the same strain landed in Florida, something magical happened because it did not kill at the same rate here.

So epidemiologists will try to find out why there are so much variations within different countries and even regions/states. Read a piece on the NYT about that:

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/03/worl ... e-why.html

Its uncertain and strange to say the least. Don't know if the 'different strains' theory holds up everywhere.


I think there is some degree of seasonality at place, however this does not mean that warmer and humid regions do not need to take cautions.
You can still get the flu or any other respiratory infection there just isn't a defined season for it.
It does not make sense that every single warmer climate has somehow got the milder strain. We know that humidity inhibits droplet transmissions, that humidity is good for the lungs and people in warmer climates are outside more year round and have higher vitamin D levels which is something that can reduce the severity of infection. When NY and Western Europe were hit they were on the tail end of winter when the population would be more vitamin D deficient. Again anecdotal as not every northern climate has had the same severity as Western Europe and the Northeast.

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32252338

Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - May 2020

Posted: Tue May 05, 2020 8:28 pm
by speedking
AirWorthy99 wrote:
N212R wrote:
AirWorthy99 wrote:
1) different virus strain

This is something that doesn't make much sense, really.


Happy to agree with you. The FL evidence seems clearly to advocate for something besides the virus strain "theory".


Not an expert here, so I might just be wrong completely.

However, its extremely strange how different things are with this virus everywhere. In years time we will have a better picture of how this thing acted when all the data is available.


Actually it is not that strange, I believe.The spread of a virus is typically influenced mainly by four factors:

- The number of days contagious.
- The probability of contracting the virus from contact with an infected person.
- The size of the population of opportunity.
- The number of people with whom an infected person comes in contact.

The first two with a same virus are typically constant. The last two are where the major differences come from. Why Italy and not Florida? In Italy people live in small apartments, sometimes with several generations together. In Florida people live in big mansions with little contact to others if necessary. Why Italy and not Germany? In Italy people, when meeting others, kiss cheeks and hug each other. In Germany they still use the old Roman salute from afar. Why Sweden and not Finland? Swedish can't stop talking, which spreads viruses, and Finns rarely talk at all. They even complained about the governments order for 2 meter social distancing, as in their culture, everybody has kept at least 5 meters distance to others for hundreds of years.

Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - May 2020

Posted: Tue May 05, 2020 8:43 pm
by PPVRA
MY SPECULATION about Sweden: The virus is likely spreading fast among the younger, less vulnerable population. The old and frail are protected. This means they have high rates of contagion with low death rates, because the virus is not spreading quickly among those likely to die.

This was not the case early on because Sweden got hit really hard in their elderly homes. But they've learned, the elderly are better informed, more motivated and better protections are in place.

NOTE: By "younger" I mean not the 60 or 65+ year olds. Kids are usually asymptomatic, so they're probably not the ones getting tested.

Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - May 2020

Posted: Tue May 05, 2020 8:46 pm
by PPVRA
PPVRA wrote:
MY SPECULATION about Sweden: The virus is likely spreading fast among the younger, less vulnerable population. The old and frail and are protected. This means they have high rates of contagion with low death rates, because the virus is not spreading quickly among those likely to die.

This was not the case early on because Sweden got hit really hard in their elderly homes. But they've learned, the elderly are better informed, more motivated and better protections are in place.

NOTE: By "younger" I mean not the 60 or 65+ year olds. Kids are usually asymptomatic, so they're probably not the ones getting tested.


There's also the line of thinking where the old and frail die out first, in a bigger initial wave, and then the death rate tends to go lower because fewer vulnerable people are still living. Kinda morbid but it's nature. .

Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - May 2020

Posted: Tue May 05, 2020 9:04 pm
by StarAC17
PPVRA wrote:
PPVRA wrote:
MY SPECULATION about Sweden: The virus is likely spreading fast among the younger, less vulnerable population. The old and frail and are protected. This means they have high rates of contagion with low death rates, because the virus is not spreading quickly among those likely to die.

This was not the case early on because Sweden got hit really hard in their elderly homes. But they've learned, the elderly are better informed, more motivated and better protections are in place.

NOTE: By "younger" I mean not the 60 or 65+ year olds. Kids are usually asymptomatic, so they're probably not the ones getting tested.


There's also the line of thinking where the old and frail die out first, in a bigger initial wave, and then the death rate tends to go lower because fewer vulnerable people are still living. Kinda morbid but it's nature. .


Kids are the big mystery with Covid19, I have heard that they do not yet have the proper cell receptors to contract Covid-19 or are getting other symptoms like on the feet. If they are limited in contracting and being contagious that would be very interesting. Also that means schools can open a lot sooner.

The quarantine depends on the contagion in question.
If we went back to 1918 with the knowledge of hindsight we would have quarantined everyone between 18 and 42 as that was the primary mortality target of the Spanish Flu.

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3310443/

Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - May 2020

Posted: Tue May 05, 2020 10:20 pm
by Jalap
speedking wrote:
AirWorthy99 wrote:
N212R wrote:

Happy to agree with you. The FL evidence seems clearly to advocate for something besides the virus strain "theory".


Not an expert here, so I might just be wrong completely.

However, its extremely strange how different things are with this virus everywhere. In years time we will have a better picture of how this thing acted when all the data is available.


Actually it is not that strange, I believe.The spread of a virus is typically influenced mainly by four factors:

- The number of days contagious.
- The probability of contracting the virus from contact with an infected person.
- The size of the population of opportunity.
- The number of people with whom an infected person comes in contact.

The first two with a same virus are typically constant. The last two are where the major differences come from. Why Italy and not Florida? In Italy people live in small apartments, sometimes with several generations together. In Florida people live in big mansions with little contact to others if necessary. Why Italy and not Germany? In Italy people, when meeting others, kiss cheeks and hug each other. In Germany they still use the old Roman salute from afar. Why Sweden and not Finland? Swedish can't stop talking, which spreads viruses, and Finns rarely talk at all. They even complained about the governments order for 2 meter social distancing, as in their culture, everybody has kept at least 5 meters distance to others for hundreds of years.

Thanks, I wish everybody could express their theories the way you do!

As for validation of the theory, we'll have to wait and see what immune testing (in all age groups) brings up. Is there indeed so much less virus in the Nordic countries to explain the differences we see today?

Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - May 2020

Posted: Tue May 05, 2020 10:32 pm
by PPVRA
StarAC17 wrote:
PPVRA wrote:
PPVRA wrote:
MY SPECULATION about Sweden: The virus is likely spreading fast among the younger, less vulnerable population. The old and frail and are protected. This means they have high rates of contagion with low death rates, because the virus is not spreading quickly among those likely to die.

This was not the case early on because Sweden got hit really hard in their elderly homes. But they've learned, the elderly are better informed, more motivated and better protections are in place.

NOTE: By "younger" I mean not the 60 or 65+ year olds. Kids are usually asymptomatic, so they're probably not the ones getting tested.


There's also the line of thinking where the old and frail die out first, in a bigger initial wave, and then the death rate tends to go lower because fewer vulnerable people are still living. Kinda morbid but it's nature. .


Kids are the big mystery with Covid19, I have heard that they do not yet have the proper cell receptors to contract Covid-19 or are getting other symptoms like on the feet. If they are limited in contracting and being contagious that would be very interesting. Also that means schools can open a lot sooner.

The quarantine depends on the contagion in question.
If we went back to 1918 with the knowledge of hindsight we would have quarantined everyone between 18 and 42 as that was the primary mortality target of the Spanish Flu.

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3310443/


One of the advantages of this pandemic is that the risk group is largely retired. Already unproductive, with no dependents and have the time in their hands to spend on figuring out and taking self-quarantining to the next level.

Largely, anyways. We know there are a number of exceptions.

Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - May 2020

Posted: Wed May 06, 2020 4:28 am
by DocLightning
StarAC17 wrote:
Kids are the big mystery with Covid19, I have heard that they do not yet have the proper cell receptors to contract Covid-19 or are getting other symptoms like on the feet. If they are limited in contracting and being contagious that would be very interesting. Also that means schools can open a lot sooner.


We don't understand it as well, but I do have some hypotheses. It appears that the big issue with this particular coronavirus is the fact that it seems to set up a two-phase inflammatory response in some adults. The first phase brings down the population, but then a whopping inflammatory response kicks in and that inflammatory response is in no way protective against the virus, but causes a lot of tissue damage. Part of the risk of this is overall inflammation, which goes up with age.

It's not the receptors, BTW. Young mammals have really high ACE2 expression.

In addition, anyone who has kids or who has worked with kids knows that kids get fevers at the drop of a hat, but adults not so much. Fever is part of what's called the "innate immune response." There are certain immune responses that work against all viruses by detecting certain common features of viruses (double-stranded RNA, presence of auto-proteolytic proteins in the cytosol, RNA pseudoknots, etc.) and instantly set off a bunch of defensive mechanisms that basically shut down cells. These generate a kind of messenger called interferon and that causes fever. In kids, the innate immune response is *really* strong, probably because kids can't rely on a vast library of antibodies as older adults can. So along comes a completely new virus and older adults just don't have an antibody or memory T-cell against this new beast in that vast library of theirs. So kids have a very fast innate response while their adaptive response (that makes antibodies and killer T-cells) ramps up and the elderly have a slow adaptive response that allows the virus to get out of control before their adaptive response can get on top of it.

That's probably part of it, anyway, but there are obviously other factors at play here.

Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - May 2020

Posted: Wed May 06, 2020 8:39 am
by ltbewr
frmrCapCadet wrote:
Trump went on the attack again, the VP and Mnuchin with him at the Lincoln Memorial, no medical advisers. One of his White House committees released a projection of 3000 deaths a day by the end of the month (that is a yearly rate of just over a million). Does anyone have any idea about what his strategy is? This all seems unhinged.

One speculation of Trump and some close to him may be to go the 'herd immunity' route. Have millions of the most vulnerable die, enough made immune so fewer can be infected, just enough of the economy is working, less government bailouts, the reality we won't have a vaccine soon and have the peak over by election day in November so Trump wins. Sadly millions will support that, sacrifice their grandparents, the poor, the sick, the non-White, immigrants, family members, supporters will see it as a patriotic duty, like soldiers sent to war to die. Sorry, I don't want to die for Trump's re-election.

Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - May 2020

Posted: Wed May 06, 2020 12:09 pm
by dtw2hyd
ltbewr wrote:
Sadly millions will support that, sacrifice their grandparents, the poor, the sick, the non-White, immigrants, family members, supporters will see it as a patriotic duty, like soldiers sent to war to die. Sorry, I don't want to die for Trump's re-election.


Not in Michigan, elderly white males lead the charts here.

49% state wide, it is increasing as more data comes in.
https://www.michigan.gov/coronavirus/0, ... --,00.html

In Oakland county, 59.08%
https://www.oakgov.com/covid/dashboard.html

Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - May 2020

Posted: Wed May 06, 2020 2:43 pm
by N212R
Have researchers looked into potential connections between flu vaccination and Covid-19 rates?

Someone provide a primer on flu vaccination in the US?

Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - May 2020

Posted: Wed May 06, 2020 3:32 pm
by readytotaxi

Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - May 2020

Posted: Wed May 06, 2020 6:40 pm
by PPVRA
Very interesting interview with Prof. Hendrik Streeck, from the University of Bonn. Interview covers case fatality rate in a German county, lockdowns, and his long run outlook for this disease.

https://youtu.be/vrL9QKGQrWk

Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - May 2020

Posted: Wed May 06, 2020 7:36 pm
by Tugger
readytotaxi wrote:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-52557955

Coronavirus mutations: Scientists puzzle over impact.

https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101 ... 9.069054v1

As they are supposed to. Remember science doesn't just come up with an answer, it asks tons of questions, looks at lots of options and ideas and alternative, proposes them, and then lots of other scientists vet that and try to prove or disprove.

It is important to know that these "new" sources of information, all the ones with "RXIV" are not published, aka vetted, research. These sites host initial research and findings and are used to hold the information for others to then review and help develop the research further. The press has now found these sites and uses them to get the "bleeding edge" information which is fine, but they do not they highlight the inherent risk in the information.

Tugg

DeBlasio has Finally Lost it

Posted: Wed May 06, 2020 7:41 pm
by Cadet985
https://www.foxnews.com/politics/de-bla ... wed-in-nyc

I’m tempted now to organize a protest of anything in NYC just to get arrested so I can become a millionaire.

This is a blatant violation of the First Amendment, and Warren Wilhelm, Jr. and his gestapo will lose in court.

Marc

Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - May 2020

Posted: Wed May 06, 2020 8:06 pm
by trpmb6
Cuomo today announced that 66% of coronavirus cases in New York that led to hospitalizations are from people who got it from someone within their own home. He people being hospitalized are predominantly non-essential people, predominantly older, predominantly minority and people who do not travel.

Doesn't make sense at all.

Edit link: https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.cnbc.c ... -home.html

Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - May 2020

Posted: Wed May 06, 2020 8:22 pm
by casinterest
trpmb6 wrote:
Cuomo today announced that 66% of coronavirus cases in New York that led to hospitalizations are from people who got it from someone within their own home. He people being hospitalized are predominantly non-essential people, predominantly older, predominantly minority and people who do not travel.

Doesn't make sense at all.

Edit link: https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.cnbc.c ... -home.html



The diagram on the page doesn't make sense to me, as it is not classifiying what "Home" really means in comparison with the other items of nursing homes, congregate living facilities, or jail,

Based on the chart these people are working in the city,as there is no exclusion for them.

Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - May 2020

Posted: Wed May 06, 2020 8:48 pm
by trpmb6
casinterest wrote:
trpmb6 wrote:
Cuomo today announced that 66% of coronavirus cases in New York that led to hospitalizations are from people who got it from someone within their own home. He people being hospitalized are predominantly non-essential people, predominantly older, predominantly minority and people who do not travel.

Doesn't make sense at all.

Edit link: https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.cnbc.c ... -home.html



The diagram on the page doesn't make sense to me, as it is not classifiying what "Home" really means in comparison with the other items of nursing homes, congregate living facilities, or jail,

Based on the chart these people are working in the city,as there is no exclusion for them.



Cuomo words, not mine.
"If you notice, 18% of the people came from nursing homes, less than 1% came from jail or prison, 2% came from the homeless population, 2% from other congregate facilities, but 66% of the people were at home, which is shocking to us," Cuomo said.

"This is a surprise: Overwhelmingly, the people were at home," he added. "We thought maybe they were taking public transportation, and we've taken special precautions on public transportation, but actually no, because these people were literally at home."

Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - May 2020

Posted: Wed May 06, 2020 8:58 pm
by casinterest
trpmb6 wrote:
casinterest wrote:
trpmb6 wrote:
Cuomo today announced that 66% of coronavirus cases in New York that led to hospitalizations are from people who got it from someone within their own home. He people being hospitalized are predominantly non-essential people, predominantly older, predominantly minority and people who do not travel.

Doesn't make sense at all.

Edit link: https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.cnbc.c ... -home.html



The diagram on the page doesn't make sense to me, as it is not classifiying what "Home" really means in comparison with the other items of nursing homes, congregate living facilities, or jail,

Based on the chart these people are working in the city,as there is no exclusion for them.



Cuomo words, not mine.
"If you notice, 18% of the people came from nursing homes, less than 1% came from jail or prison, 2% came from the homeless population, 2% from other congregate facilities, but 66% of the people were at home, which is shocking to us," Cuomo said.

"This is a surprise: Overwhelmingly, the people were at home," he added. "We thought maybe they were taking public transportation, and we've taken special precautions on public transportation, but actually no, because these people were literally at home."



It still doesn't make sense based on the chart shown. The chart only indicates peoples's living conditions, not their working conditions, or travel conditions.

Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - May 2020

Posted: Wed May 06, 2020 9:04 pm
by casinterest
Interesting note.
The 7 day world wide trend line is hitting new highs.

It currently stands at 84,038 compared to a fixed 80,000-83000 range bound from April 6 till May 2.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavir ... de-graphs/

Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - May 2020

Posted: Wed May 06, 2020 9:40 pm
by flyguy89
Aaron747 wrote:
Francoflier wrote:
Jalap wrote:
The Swedish experiment pretty much proves that it's possible to have far more infections with still a relatively low mortality rate. Your argument makes sense looking at numbers early April. But not today.
It doesn't explain the (very probable) high Swedish infection rate while maintaining a relatively low mortality rate.
The UK tried the Swedish approach, but changed its mind. It didn't work there like it did in Sweden. Same with the Netherlands, they also wanted to go herd immunity but ended up with pretty strict measures.

Hence, there must be other factors in play. A mystery for now.
(A mystery that needs te be answered before the whole world can go teh Swedish way, let this be very clear)


I'm not sure how the different strains affect different regions, or even if the virus affected different genetic makeups differently. There will be some really interesting findings down the line.

One thing is becoming increasingly clear however, is that the virus was present in Europe well before the authorities started to even worry about it. The initial fast rise in cases was likely related to the fact that these places simply didn't test anyone before. Ditto the US. I believe this goes a long way in explaining how things got so far out of control there. It was left to spread unchecked until it was too late.

At this stage, I think it's pretty clear that the virus has had time to take hold in pretty much every country in the World. There are those that are past the peak and have pretty much dealt with it, those that are currently fighting it and those who haven't started properly testing yet...

Cheap, simple, fast and reasonably accurate testing is the way we get out of this and life can regain a semblance of normalcy until we find a cure or buildup enough immunity.

As for lockdowns, well it seems the US is nowhere near ready to ease them. Not so much because the disease is out of control, but because an out of control proportion of the population who couldn't assemble a working brain between all of them, and have been made to believe that their raging ignorance and anger is acceptable since late 2016, are simply not able or willing to follow the simple measures that the public should cooperate with to allow for the lifting of restrictions...:

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-52540266

:shakehead:

That's just pathetic.


Your assessment of the US situation is correct. By far one of the most serious problems in our society is a lack of maturity amongst many adults coupled with inability to see any big picture beyond one’s immediate selfish needs. There are a lot of great people doing the right thing of course, but we’re not ready to move into the next phase because testing and the selfishly immature are holding us back.

I don't think that's fair at all. Hundreds of millions of people are doing the right thing and acting responsibly in the face of their livelihoods being destroyed. By most official tracking we have an 80-90% compliance rate with the quarantine measures. We are a diverse nation of 330 million people, there are always going to be a handful of kooks and unfortunate incidences when harsh restrictions are brought to bear on such a large population.

Re: DeBlasio has Finally Lost it

Posted: Wed May 06, 2020 10:39 pm
by M564038
You link to Fox News as a trustworthy source?
That tells me all I need to know.

Re: DeBlasio has Finally Lost it

Posted: Wed May 06, 2020 10:59 pm
by trpmb6
M564038 wrote:
You link to Fox News as a trustworthy source?
That tells me all I need to know.


Well, did you read it at all? Direct quotes from Dr Blasio and Shea.. hard to mince words.

Re: DeBlasio has Finally Lost it

Posted: Wed May 06, 2020 11:00 pm
by NIKV69
Finally? It took this long?

Re: DeBlasio has Finally Lost it

Posted: Wed May 06, 2020 11:24 pm
by 910A
Cadet985 wrote:
https://www.foxnews.com/politics/de-blasio-nypd-commish-no-protests-allowed-in-nyc

I’m tempted now to organize a protest of anything in NYC just to get arrested so I can become a millionaire.

This is a blatant violation of the First Amendment, and Warren Wilhelm, Jr. and his gestapo will lose in court.

Marc

Well apparently the courts aren't open in NYC due to the current situation.
So soon you forgot Bloomberg tenure of blocking protests.
-Remember the Republican National Convention in 2004, the NYPD took an especially aggressive approach to handling protesters. Although there was not a single incident of protester violence, 1,800 arrests were made, many of them pre-emptively. (They were held until after the RNC ended and then released, often without charges.) Reports shows NYC had to pay millions of dollars in settlements for wrongful arrests,
- Occupy Wall Street demonstration that was broke up in the middle of the night..
- How about the protests against Bush's Iraq War in 2003

So NYC has a history going back to the 19th century blocking protests.

Re: DeBlasio has Finally Lost it

Posted: Wed May 06, 2020 11:25 pm
by zakuivcustom
So DeBlasio taking a note from the Hong Kong government?

Least he know, the more the govt say no to anything, the more people are going to do the opposite in despite.

Re: DeBlasio has Finally Lost it

Posted: Wed May 06, 2020 11:41 pm
by casinterest
Cadet985 wrote:
https://www.foxnews.com/politics/de-blasio-nypd-commish-no-protests-allowed-in-nyc

I’m tempted now to organize a protest of anything in NYC just to get arrested so I can become a millionaire.

This is a blatant violation of the First Amendment, and Warren Wilhelm, Jr. and his gestapo will lose in court.

Marc



I see you didn't read the original story two days ago that fox news ripped off.
No one was arrested. They were dispersed. So good luck getting your millions.

Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - May 2020

Posted: Thu May 07, 2020 2:11 am
by stlgph
That moment when Axl Rose, Steven Mnuchin and Patricia Arquette shared time together on Twitter.

https://twitter.com/axlrose/status/1258161648184905728

Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - May 2020

Posted: Thu May 07, 2020 2:51 am
by Aaron747
SCOTUS has refused to put a hold on the business closure orders in PA, following a similar decline of petition by the PA Supreme Court. I guess the courts don’t agree with zany paranoid citizens who opine governors are acting as tyrants and the 10th amendment doesn’t exist.

https://thehill.com/homenews/state-watc ... alth-order

Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - May 2020

Posted: Thu May 07, 2020 6:25 am
by GDB
stlgph wrote:
That moment when Axl Rose, Steven Mnuchin and Patricia Arquette shared time together on Twitter.

https://twitter.com/axlrose/status/1258161648184905728


Thanks for that, in another cheering part of that thread the NRA are laying off people, I knew that before all this they were in the financial mire.
As for Munchin how was he not sacked before, wasn't he caught with his ghastly wife misusing Federal funds....oh wait, he's one of Trump's principal swamp shitgoblins.

Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - May 2020

Posted: Thu May 07, 2020 10:03 pm
by GalaxyFlyer
NYC really is the gateway to the US infections, “Grand Central Terminal” say NYT. What a swamp.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/07/us/n ... e=Homepage

Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - May 2020

Posted: Thu May 07, 2020 10:06 pm
by Aaron747
GalaxyFlyer wrote:
NYC really is the gateway to the US infections, “Grand Central Terminal” say NYT. What a swamp.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/07/us/n ... e=Homepage


Fantastic that you can separate NYT’s editorial page biases from their excellent factual reporting - like they can. :thumbsup:

Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - May 2020

Posted: Thu May 07, 2020 11:04 pm
by Jalap
trpmb6 wrote:
Cuomo today announced that 66% of coronavirus cases in New York that led to hospitalizations are from people who got it from someone within their own home. He people being hospitalized are predominantly non-essential people, predominantly older, predominantly minority and people who do not travel.

Doesn't make sense at all.

Edit link: https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.cnbc.c ... -home.html

It makes perfect sense and I don't understand what's shocking about this graph.

In a non-total lockdown situation, home is the most likely place to get infected. 1 person infected on the outside will most likely infect all others in the household, even if they never leave the door.
And the larger the households, the more home infections you'll see. Assuming minority groups generally live in a larger household including several generations, it's very logical you'll see those over-represented in statistics.

I don't see the point of bringing this out as "shocking".

Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - May 2020

Posted: Thu May 07, 2020 11:29 pm
by flyguy89
Nevada governor just announced the state will enter a phase 1 reopening beginning this Saturday.

https://www.reviewjournal.com/news/poli ... t-2023007/

Restaurants, retail, and hair and nail salons can now reopen at 50% capacity with social distancing restrictions in place and mask-wearing encouraged. Large gatherings greater than 10 still being restricted. The state's testing capacity is expanding to 4,000/day and the governor rightly set expectations that we will continue seeing infections increase until a vaccine is available, but that hospital infrastructure is now better able to handle COVID cases.

Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - May 2020

Posted: Fri May 08, 2020 5:30 am
by DocLightning
readytotaxi wrote:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-52557955

Coronavirus mutations: Scientists puzzle over impact.

https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101 ... 9.069054v1


I'm not convinced. The only figure in that article that makes any sense to me is 3 and that seems mostly circumstantial. Moreover, they go off about antibody-dependent enhancement, but the amino acid residue in question is buried between the three protomers of the spike trimer, so how are antibodies supposed to reach it?

As I explained in my virology thread, viruses are mutating all the time. Most of these mutations are deleterious to the virus. Some are helpful to the virus, but "helpful" does not mean "lethal." In fact, there is generally a selective pressure on viruses to not kill hosts so that they can spread. Dead men spread few viruses. But even if it is more transmissible, it doesn't seem to be more lethal, so that raises some questions about whether this would be one step towards attenuation.

Still, there will be breathless reporting about every new mutation...except there are literally thousands of mutations. And that's true for every virus, be it measles (which works on one vaccine) or polio (for which there are three serotypes) or flu (for which serotypes are constantly changing). The big thing to watch out for in this kind of reporting is that word: "serotype." A serotype is a strain of a virus that is immunologically distinct from other viruses of the same species. So infection with Poliovirus Type 1 doesn't grant immunity from types 2 and 3 because they are different serotypes. Thus, the polio vaccine has all three serotypes. Every year, we get a new influenza serotype (several of them, actually). But so far, nobody has shown that SARS-CoV-2 comes in more than one serotype, and that is consistent with literally every other human CoV that we know.

Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - May 2020

Posted: Fri May 08, 2020 12:49 pm
by dtw2hyd
Michigan Governor announced Safe Start Michigan Plan. We are in Phase-3 i.e., flattening.
https://www.michigan.gov/documents/whit ... 9875_7.pdf

Also, COVID-19 Tracking site complemented Michigan's efforts.

It's worth zooming in on one state story, Michigan. A few weeks ago, it looked like it might turn into another New York.

Deaths were rising rapidly, peaking at over 200 per day. Now, deaths are *slowly* declining.

Testing is way up, but newly discovered cases are falling.

https://twitter.com/COVID19Tracking/sta ... 3528204288

Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - May 2020

Posted: Fri May 08, 2020 1:52 pm
by EstherLouise
Are you ready for a vaccine? This is intriguing. Llama antibodies kill COVID-19.

https://www.sciencealert.com/llama-bloo ... infections

Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - May 2020

Posted: Fri May 08, 2020 4:03 pm
by N212R
Jalap wrote:
In a non-total lockdown situation, home is the most likely place to get infected. 1 person infected on the outside will most likely infect all others in the household, even if they never leave the door.
And the larger the households, the more home infections you'll see. Assuming minority groups generally live in a larger household including several generations, it's very logical you'll see those over-represented in statistics.


Not according to the German study by Prof. Streeck where they found "studies of multi-person households showed that the risk of infecting another person was surprisingly low.".

https://medicalxpress.com/news/2020-05- ... ality.html

Either the Germans are much better at family distancing than New Yorkers or someone has their numbers wrong.

Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - May 2020

Posted: Fri May 08, 2020 4:43 pm
by Reddevil556
The enduring question that needs to be asked. Will this be the course of action going forward? Will case law come from this about the power of executive orders. Can the government get sued for lost wages? 1st amendment rights? It appears now that it’s a let’s what and see what the data tells us. But the data is highly controversial and erratic. How long can we afford to sit back and wait for “good” data? Odd times, but certainly not good times.

Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - May 2020

Posted: Fri May 08, 2020 5:29 pm
by frmrCapCadet
Epidemiology is difficult. Both New York and the German studies may be right, partially. I suspect we only have one poster who could read the two reports, and then say something right about either one. I make a habit on not having views on things like this. No background. But I do read, sometimes the main study, more often what reliable people have to say about them.

Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - May 2020

Posted: Fri May 08, 2020 6:53 pm
by PPVRA
“In Lombardy, the precrisis total ICU capacity was approximately 720 beds (2.9% of total hospital beds at a total of 74 hospitals); these ICUs usually have 85% to 90% occupancy during the winter months.”

https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/f ... le/2763188

Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - May 2020

Posted: Fri May 08, 2020 9:32 pm
by DLFREEBIRD
my neighbor a physician just returned from NYC.  

I've deleted names since my intent is not to embarrass anybody.  

 This is what she wrote in a mass email to probably everyone she knows.

  

Many have already shared stories of bravery and heartbreak much better than I ever could.  

While I don't want to wade too deep into the streams of misinformation that are flooding our media landscape I would like to share a couple of thoughts and direct observations.

- The people of NYC have been through a truly traumatic experience. They responded admirably, and their hospitals were able to add literally hundreds and hundreds of beds full of > 90% COVID patients to accommodate the surge that has mercifully eased up.  Thousands of patients with and without pre-existing conditions died suddenly in numbers not seen in a hundred years despite aggressive action taken to slow the spread.  No one benefited from this.  Please do not discredit their suffering or the work done to help them by giving in to lazy conspiracy theories or scapegoating.

- Projections and numbers change, a lot, especially when dealing with something as infinitely complex as human behavior on a macro level and a virus that didn't exist 6 months ago.  Don't forget that we have taken aggressive actions that have undoubtedly helped when you compare what has happened to what could have happened.

- NOT the flu.  NOT the flu.  NOT THE FLU.  Flu infects up to 9% of the WORLD every year.  This has maybe infected 0.8% of that same population, and that is assuming 60 million cases versus the 3.5 million we've actually confirmed. The exact rates of infection, mortality, and exposures won't be known for years but what we do know is this:  A hospital in Long Island has seen more deaths in 2 months from COVID than they saw from flu in the last 5 years.  A hospital that handled every virus out there, including influenza, without any distancing went from needing 20 ICU beds to needing 170.  We've never needed rows of refrigerated trucks for the dead from flu. Based on what has already happened, how can we not conclude that this thing is 5-10 times more dangerous than anything we've seen in the US since 1920?

- This virus did things to my patients in NYC that I haven't seen before after spending the last 15 years of treating only sick, hospitalized patients.  Most people survive, but it killed the people I took care of at a rate that is unlike any other infection I've seen.  It is nasty, and there is no cure or highly effective treatment for the sickest patients, yet.  I do take some comfort in the fact that while there are always exceptions, for the most part this pathogen doesn't seem to be a great danger to children.

- Lastly, there is always a reason for hope and the right path forward will almost assuredly land somewhere in between "stay inside or die" and the idea that we need to sacrifice our grandparents to make sure the stock market doesn't get spooked.  A lot of the COVID patients I saw come in had spent lots of time in small spaces with lots of other people.  We know that many cases have come from workplaces, homes, and crowded indoor spaces.  I can't say what is 100% safe or not but I personally would feel safe being a few yards away from other people on a beach or at a park.  I know great hand hygiene, masks, and people staying home when sick will help slow the spread, probably by a lot.  This thing will be around for quite some time and I'm sure that in the near future we will have figured out some better ways to treat the sick, spend time with those we love, and keep as many businesses going as possible.  Let's ignore the loudest and least informed voices out there who have obvious agendas and try to craft common-sense policy that is compassionate, pragmatic, and based on observations and data.  That said, I think we'll all be glad if hindsight shows that there were some overreactions rather than the alternative.

Be well, friends.  This isn't the end of the World, but it is unfortunately quite real and will impact a lot of the things we took for granted as recently as February for some time.  Be patient, be kind, be curious, stay connected.  We need to be resilient to deal with this reality for the foreseeable future.  Don't lick doorknobs, wash your hands, and don't spend time in closed spaces with someone who has a cough or fever.  Please try not to watch the news too much.  Both of the current narratives are full of bad math and biased assumptions that can be super frustrating and scary to me, and I just got back from the epicenter of a global pandemic!

Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - May 2020

Posted: Fri May 08, 2020 9:37 pm
by Tugger
Well that settles it! We need to open up!

Honestly, many people will only learn by direct impact, refusing to learn by example. We will see what that does and how that affects things in the opening states. Hopefully the distancing and cleaning and other rules put in place will mitigate any impact. We will see if the original estimates were in fact directly affected by the lockdown and the changes most communities put into place. But no matter what we will see and know what happens.

Tugg

Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - May 2020

Posted: Fri May 08, 2020 9:53 pm
by SheikhDjibouti
DLFREEBIRD wrote:
my neighbor a physician just returned from NYC.  

 This is what she wrote in a mass email to probably everyone she knows.
..
..

Probably one of the best posts I have read on this subject.

Thankyou. Both of you. Very much.

Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - May 2020

Posted: Fri May 08, 2020 10:23 pm
by casinterest
As of today there have been 4,000,0000 confirmed cases of Covid.

The world wide average over 7 days continues on it's trend up.

Russia. Brazil, and India are quickly taking on new cases.

The US has stabilized, and even broken downward in cases , but still has the most new cases per day.

With the relaxed social distancing guidelines across most of the states, the US will be under close watch for the next two weeks.

Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - May 2020

Posted: Fri May 08, 2020 10:53 pm
by PPVRA
Europe is also opening up. Also slowly.