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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - May 2020

Posted: Sun May 17, 2020 6:46 pm
by speedking
"That's bullsh.t." -Professor Wittkowski in response to what he thinks of Dr. Fauci saying we should never shake hands again.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_cont ... e=emb_logo

Re: We need to reopen now!

Posted: Sun May 17, 2020 6:59 pm
by StarAC17
Reinhardt wrote:
Point 1/ Yes there are vast areas of the US where nobody has the virius, nobody knows anyone who has had it. The same can be said for where I live in Eastern Germany. Yes there are protests here, from the far left and far right.

2/ If every Govenment reacted properly to this, in a timey fashion then you wouldn't be in the situation we now find ourselves. Several countries with the some of the highest death rates and infection rates that are still in lock down have something in common..their leaders and their particular uselessness as leaders.

Hindsight is a wonderful thing, but so is competence. In the case of the UK two pandemic exercises we made by the NHS in the last 5 years. The outcomes were clear, and the steps needed to be ready for such a situation were clear. Was anything done about it? No. Was the NHS cut to the bone over the last 10 years - yes.

The entire point about lockdowns in the US, UK and Europe was to stop health services being overwhealmed. Someone said that above.

So you can go about shouting how it's infringing your human rights, and protest in town halls with assult rifles and AK's but a lot of this was avoidable, and a lot of it was caused by the very people you likely put into power.

Personally as soon as this happened if I was in charge of a country I would have put social distancing in place, made mask wearing mandatory in all public places, supported care comes to the hilt, test all arrivals at airports and tested properly along with tracing. You could have in all likelyhood avoided complete shutdowns.

3/ This virus is nasty. You could have had it already and have no idea. You could have transmitted it to someone else and had no idea. How would you feel if you did exactly that and somebody in their 80's or with Diabetes or heart problems (those groups most likely to die from it) died?

How would you feel if you lived in Northern Italy and almost an entire generation have been wiped out?

It's not about govenment control, it's about personal responsbility that you aren't going around literally killing other people by your actions (or lack of). It's incredibly selfish.

So lessons:

1/ Stop voting in populist blithering idiots into Presidential and PM roles. When they screw up stop standing up for them just because you don't like the other side.
2/ Take responsbility for yourself and understand not everything is about the govenment wanting to control your life. Sometimes, it's for your own good.
3/ Learn lessons from other countries that get things right and copy them. Who gives a crap who came up with the idea.


1) I know of no one who has been confirmed to have the virus. I know of about a handful that have had eerily similar symptoms and I was in close contact with them before that and this was back in December and January.

2) If governments tried lockdowns in February no one would have stood for it as the thread wasn't clearly imminent as least in Western Nations.

What I agree with was the constant cutting to public health and not being prepared for this was clearly arrogance and incompetence. The US had a plan in place that Trump ignored, Canada got rid of a ton of PPE a few years ago and didn't replace it.

Also the health systems are not overwhelmed as it is imperative that they don't become so, thus some social distancing and mask wearing is going to happen. However a lot of governments are moving these goalposts to no new cases or deaths which is unrealistic in my opinion mainly because there are so many asymptomatic carriers out there that is not really possible.

3) Yes it is, but as of right now not as deadly as initially thought.

Also this is why we protect those people and honestly I speak to a fair about of old people who are like if this gets me it gets me. My parents are 65 and 66 my dad has this attitude somewhat, my mom is so stressed about it which is counter productive if you actually are to contract it. Yes she does have some pre-existing conditions but is not the most unhealthy person in her 60's either, also high levels of stress hormones are not conducive to a good immune response to begin with. I have very limited control if a virus that doesn't give me symptoms and is transmitted to someone it kills, I can only take so much caution and of course I would feel badly if I knew definitively that I was the cause of someone dying. As part of my job as a bank I have to deal with elderly people and that could be a reality, I only have so much control. However moving the date of death really doesn't serve a long term purpose for society, all of us die at somepoint.

Also because the virus is so stealthy this is one of the reasons that makes Sweden's case for staying open to get some degree of herd immunity. Yes deaths are higher now but they might normalize with other countries over the length of this Pandemic. This virus is simply going to be waiting when we all get back into society. People can feel free to disagree with me but if 25% of people are asymptomatic (the flu is 33%) then this virus will be endemic even if a vaccine comes along that provides long term immunity. Even with large vaccinations measles is still out there, H1N1 is still out there, Polio still exists in small pockets we have only really eradicated one virus and that is Smallpox.

https://www.straight.com/covid-19-pande ... ns-chronic

I agree with the personal responsibility 100% though.

Lessons:

1 and 2 are obvious.

3 is not being done!! All I see is the Canadian government doing is trying to tread water with slow progression. Granted of developed nations we are doing pretty good.

Lets figure out how to do mass testing, contact tracing constitutionally and build up the PPE now for wave 2 and the next pandemic that kills 25% of 18-50 year olds. Focus on this while opening up.

Re: We need to reopen now!

Posted: Sun May 17, 2020 8:31 pm
by PPVRA
StarAC17 wrote:
Reinhardt wrote:
Point 1/ Yes there are vast areas of the US where nobody has the virius, nobody knows anyone who has had it. The same can be said for where I live in Eastern Germany. Yes there are protests here, from the far left and far right.

2/ If every Govenment reacted properly to this, in a timey fashion then you wouldn't be in the situation we now find ourselves. Several countries with the some of the highest death rates and infection rates that are still in lock down have something in common..their leaders and their particular uselessness as leaders.

Hindsight is a wonderful thing, but so is competence. In the case of the UK two pandemic exercises we made by the NHS in the last 5 years. The outcomes were clear, and the steps needed to be ready for such a situation were clear. Was anything done about it? No. Was the NHS cut to the bone over the last 10 years - yes.

The entire point about lockdowns in the US, UK and Europe was to stop health services being overwhealmed. Someone said that above.

So you can go about shouting how it's infringing your human rights, and protest in town halls with assult rifles and AK's but a lot of this was avoidable, and a lot of it was caused by the very people you likely put into power.

Personally as soon as this happened if I was in charge of a country I would have put social distancing in place, made mask wearing mandatory in all public places, supported care comes to the hilt, test all arrivals at airports and tested properly along with tracing. You could have in all likelyhood avoided complete shutdowns.

3/ This virus is nasty. You could have had it already and have no idea. You could have transmitted it to someone else and had no idea. How would you feel if you did exactly that and somebody in their 80's or with Diabetes or heart problems (those groups most likely to die from it) died?

How would you feel if you lived in Northern Italy and almost an entire generation have been wiped out?

It's not about govenment control, it's about personal responsbility that you aren't going around literally killing other people by your actions (or lack of). It's incredibly selfish.

So lessons:

1/ Stop voting in populist blithering idiots into Presidential and PM roles. When they screw up stop standing up for them just because you don't like the other side.
2/ Take responsbility for yourself and understand not everything is about the govenment wanting to control your life. Sometimes, it's for your own good.
3/ Learn lessons from other countries that get things right and copy them. Who gives a crap who came up with the idea.


1) I know of no one who has been confirmed to have the virus. I know of about a handful that have had eerily similar symptoms and I was in close contact with them before that and this was back in December and January.

2) If governments tried lockdowns in February no one would have stood for it as the thread wasn't clearly imminent as least in Western Nations.

What I agree with was the constant cutting to public health and not being prepared for this was clearly arrogance and incompetence. The US had a plan in place that Trump ignored, Canada got rid of a ton of PPE a few years ago and didn't replace it.

Also the health systems are not overwhelmed as it is imperative that they don't become so, thus some social distancing and mask wearing is going to happen. However a lot of governments are moving these goalposts to no new cases or deaths which is unrealistic in my opinion mainly because there are so many asymptomatic carriers out there that is not really possible.

3) Yes it is, but as of right now not as deadly as initially thought.

Also this is why we protect those people and honestly I speak to a fair about of old people who are like if this gets me it gets me. My parents are 65 and 66 my dad has this attitude somewhat, my mom is so stressed about it which is counter productive if you actually are to contract it. Yes she does have some pre-existing conditions but is not the most unhealthy person in her 60's either, also high levels of stress hormones are not conducive to a good immune response to begin with. I have very limited control if a virus that doesn't give me symptoms and is transmitted to someone it kills, I can only take so much caution and of course I would feel badly if I knew definitively that I was the cause of someone dying. As part of my job as a bank I have to deal with elderly people and that could be a reality, I only have so much control. However moving the date of death really doesn't serve a long term purpose for society, all of us die at somepoint.

Also because the virus is so stealthy this is one of the reasons that makes Sweden's case for staying open to get some degree of herd immunity. Yes deaths are higher now but they might normalize with other countries over the length of this Pandemic. This virus is simply going to be waiting when we all get back into society. People can feel free to disagree with me but if 25% of people are asymptomatic (the flu is 33%) then this virus will be endemic even if a vaccine comes along that provides long term immunity. Even with large vaccinations measles is still out there, H1N1 is still out there, Polio still exists in small pockets we have only really eradicated one virus and that is Smallpox.

https://www.straight.com/covid-19-pande ... ns-chronic

I agree with the personal responsibility 100% though.

Lessons:

1 and 2 are obvious.

3 is not being done!! All I see is the Canadian government doing is trying to tread water with slow progression. Granted of developed nations we are doing pretty good.

Lets figure out how to do mass testing, contact tracing constitutionally and build up the PPE now for wave 2 and the next pandemic that kills 25% of 18-50 year olds. Focus on this while opening up.


In terms of building some herd immunity conservatively, I think opening schools two weeks early in the fall and tacking an additional two weeks to winter break would be beneficial. An early start gives schools two additional weeks before flu season, and tacks an additional two week for a total four week winter holiday smack in the middle of flu season.

Basically, start early so kids can stay home all or most of December.

Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - May 2020

Posted: Mon May 18, 2020 7:44 am
by tommy1808
frmrCapCadet wrote:
I am surprised neither the president nor our governor cite what is happening here on our peninsula as what can be done. Washington State is doing good, British Columbia to the north is doing even better.


doesn´t fit the narrative, can´t be told to the public.

DL717 wrote:
dtw2hyd wrote:
Michigan seems on its way to double average daily tests capacity from 15,000 to 30,000. This was the federal state cooperation plan.

On May 13, 2020, 21000 tests were done, daily % positive rate jumped from 6.1% to 10.7%. This could be because now some counties mandate tests for retail workers.

Statewide
Cases by Race: Caucasians 36%, African Americans 32%, Unknown 17%
Deaths by Race: Caucasians 50%, African Americans 40%, Unknown 5%

Still, it is the white males above 60 bearing the brunt.

https://www.clickondetroit.com/news/mic ... -reported/
https://www.michigan.gov/coronavirus/0, ... --,00.html
https://www.oakgov.com/covid/dashboard.html


Testing positive and being at risk are too different things.


being positive and being a risk to others however are the smae.

Enough of this nonsense.


i agree. So stop posting

Get people back to work.


Call your man in the WH and tell him to ramp up testing, stop spreading lies about the virus and you´d be back at work in no time. In fact you would already be back at work if it wasn´t for the utter incompetence of the government you blindly follow into the Untergang. The lockdown is his, not just because he is responsible Corona even got this far in the US, but also because those lock downs implement his guidelines. So you are barking up the wrong tree, the mess you are in is Trumps fault alone.

States are actually opening up faster than when Trump put in writing when they should........ so, if Trump had his, officially put in writing, will, rules would even be harsher than they are.

https://www.whitehouse.gov/openingamerica/

If you’re over 65, you keep your butt at home or have an underlying condition keep your butt at home. Everyone else and be set free.


yeah.. just starve to death at home, because in a rampant infection let lose like you want the government to, any time you go out is a high risk, anyone coming to you is a risk. Much nicer than in a hospital, and most importantly starvation doesn´t count as Covid death and doesn´t make Trump look bad.

So.. what is your program to pay, and detain, healthcare and nursing case professionals in the respective hospitals and nursing homes until this is over? Because that is what you would have to do if your plan got implemented, and you don´t want to turn it genocidal. Also, no visitors. Wasn´t loneliness and isolation a problem that would kill more people than Covid a few weeks back? Maybe you start thinking beyond your immediate desire.

best regards
Thomas

Re: We need to reopen now!

Posted: Mon May 18, 2020 8:06 am
by tommy1808
StarAC17 wrote:
2) If governments tried lockdowns in February no one would have stood for it as the thread wasn't clearly imminent as least in Western Nations..


lock downs could have been much less strict in February, and at that point some good behavior guidance may have been enough.

Here in Germany first behavior guidance was given out in the first half of February, and as early as February 22nd the "we can not stop a wider spread anymore".

best regards
Thomas

Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - May 2020

Posted: Mon May 18, 2020 8:08 am
by bgm
It really is a spectacular coincidence that Tweedledum and Tweedledee lead the two countries which have the highest death tolls in the world.

Who would've guessed?

Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - May 2020

Posted: Mon May 18, 2020 8:12 am
by tommy1808
bgm wrote:
It really is a spectacular coincidence that Tweedledum and Tweedledee lead the two countries which have the highest death tolls in the world.

Who would've guessed?


everyone essentially?

It would generally seem to be that having a center/center-left government and a female leader in charge is good for your life expectancy in a time of crisis.

best regards
Thomas

Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - May 2020

Posted: Mon May 18, 2020 11:06 am
by dobilan
""It would generally seem to be that having a center/center-left government and a female leader in charge is good for your life expectancy in a time of crisis.""

...or authoritarian communist regimes. Or middle age style religious tiranies. Or even better, a certain dystopian dictature from another world. They also scored well to very best in the fight against Coronavirus. At least in theory. The Covid discourse is getting more and more political. To the point of irrelevance. Who will win? Of course populist forces. We'e seen it this weekend all across Europe.

Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - May 2020

Posted: Mon May 18, 2020 8:58 pm
by PPVRA
Good article that puts epidemiological modeling and the concepts of R0 and herd immunity into perspective.

https://harvardmagazine.com/2020/05/r-nought

Somewhat alarming headline but read on. It’s pretty good info for the layman.

Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - May 2020

Posted: Mon May 18, 2020 9:08 pm
by Pi7472000
Hello!

There are many people who do not believe in vaccines and refuse to get them. Will require that all people show their vaccine papers in the future when we get one for COVID19 to help get people traveling again? I have had to show that I got a yellow fever shot when I enter certain countries so am wondering if this would be solution in the future. If you don't want a vaccine then you can stay in your local area.

Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - May 2020

Posted: Mon May 18, 2020 9:17 pm
by AirWorthy99
Here is a chart with the current testing trends and positive cases in the US:

Image

https://www.aei.org/covid-2019-action-tracker/

Things are getting much better with testing and with new cases which have been falling along with hospitalizations in the US overall, despite some areas reporting upticks.

Thus we can see that re-opening the economy with social distancing measures has been working thus far.

Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - May 2020

Posted: Mon May 18, 2020 9:52 pm
by casinterest
AirWorthy99 wrote:
Here is a chart with the current testing trends and positive cases in the US:

Image

https://www.aei.org/covid-2019-action-tracker/

Things are getting much better with testing and with new cases which have been falling along with hospitalizations in the US overall, despite some areas reporting upticks.

Thus we can see that re-opening the economy with social distancing measures has been working thus far.



No, you can't say that, since only this week and next will we start to have the results rolling in from the reopened areas, and places like Texas have never trended down.

The one reason things look so rosey is because places where it has been bad are still under lockdown and are actually beating the virus. New York, Louisiana and Michigan have been plunging in new cases while keeping restrictions in place.


Many states due to lawsuits and lifting of restrictions are about to throw that chart into a tizzy by the middle of June.

Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - May 2020

Posted: Mon May 18, 2020 9:55 pm
by casinterest
PPVRA wrote:
Good article that puts epidemiological modeling and the concepts of R0 and herd immunity into perspective.

https://harvardmagazine.com/2020/05/r-nought

Somewhat alarming headline but read on. It’s pretty good info for the layman.



For those that don't want to read it on. This article should drive it home.

https://www.livescience.com/covid-19-su ... nging.html

Within days (an average of three), people began showing symptoms of COVID-19. Most of the choir's members are older women, and women comprised 85% of the choir cases. The median age of those infected was 69 years old. Excluding the superspreader, 52 of the 60 singers (or 86.7%) became ill. However, only 32 had a test to confirm the illness; the other 20 likely had it, based on their symptoms, said SCPH, which interviewed all of the members present.

Most of the patients (67.9%) did not have any underlying conditions. However, the three singers who were hospitalized had two or more underlying medical conditions. Two of those patients later died.

Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - May 2020

Posted: Mon May 18, 2020 10:05 pm
by AirWorthy99
casinterest wrote:

No, you can't say that, since only this week and next will we start to have the results rolling in from the reopened areas, and places like Texas have never trended down.
.


You have access to the first states that opened, check Georgia and Florida please. We have now the mayor of Atlanta saying things are not as bad as she thought.

I am sorry I can actually say with data that things are looking better than before. You have been saying for over a month now that we need to wait for next week or 2. Seems to me you are going to keep saying that all the way to the fall.

They just published the most recent data, till today

Image

You can parse through the data if you wish, and tell analyze it: https://www.aei.org/covid-2019-action-tracker/

It seems to me that the predictions on the reply #77 which you posted, aren't ever going to materialize. The one of 3000 deaths per day and 200,000 new cases per day.

Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - May 2020

Posted: Mon May 18, 2020 10:19 pm
by casinterest
AirWorthy99 wrote:
casinterest wrote:

No, you can't say that, since only this week and next will we start to have the results rolling in from the reopened areas, and places like Texas have never trended down.
.


You have access to the first states that opened, check Georgia and Florida please. We have now the mayor of Atlanta saying things are not as bad as she thought.

I am sorry I can actually say with data that things are looking better than before. You have been saying for over a month now that we need to wait for next week or 2. Seems to me you are going to keep saying that all the way to the fall.

They just published the most recent data, till today

Image

You can parse through the data if you wish, and tell analyze it: https://www.aei.org/covid-2019-action-tracker/

It seems to me that the predictions on the reply #77 which you posted, aren't ever going to materialize. The one of 3000 deaths per day and 200,000 new cases per day.


From your same site.

Look where they are testing.

From you same site.

State Testing Progress-->Amount Tested.

Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - May 2020

Posted: Tue May 19, 2020 5:39 am
by DLFREEBIRD
I have been looking at this site.

https://www.covidexitstrategy.org what I find interesting, is that some states meet the criteria, to reopen, but then, a day later don't.

Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - May 2020

Posted: Tue May 19, 2020 5:40 am
by tommy1808
Pi7472000 wrote:
Hello!

There are many people who do not believe in vaccines and refuse to get them. Will require that all people show their vaccine papers in the future when we get one for COVID19 to help get people traveling again? I have had to show that I got a yellow fever shot when I enter certain countries so am wondering if this would be solution in the future. If you don't want a vaccine then you can stay in your local area.


Some countries might end up with the requirement for entry, but ultimately it depends how good we get it under control. I think about half my vaccinations are due to travel requirements.

Best regards
Thomas

Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - May 2020

Posted: Tue May 19, 2020 11:20 am
by casinterest
Insightful video on Flu vs Covid deaths in the US.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1rEO8iJB45A

(Might want to watch on low volume. Music is annoying)

Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - May 2020

Posted: Tue May 19, 2020 1:08 pm
by ltbewr
The number of deaths from Covid-19 in the USA nationwide may be easing somewhat overall, but they are skewed by the sharp decreases in the worst hit urban and suburban areas including NY City metro area, New Jersey, Boston, Philadelphia, Detroit, and New Orleans. They are generally increasing in more rural areas, and states where public health sanctions were delayed, limited or being prematurely removed as well as 'superspreaders' in locations like churches, restaurants, funeral services where social distancing was ignored. I would also note that a plurality of deaths in March and April in the USA, 30% to 40% or even more, were residents and workers in nursing homes. That will likely decline as a percentage of national deaths. The lack of sound National guidance, inability to test, lack of PPE, delays in public health stay at home orders, delays in requiring mouth and nose coverings and 'social distancing', and conflicts by many who had to continue working if possible to have enough food and shelter continue the infection rate with other factors has likely caused many deaths.

Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - May 2020

Posted: Tue May 19, 2020 5:44 pm
by casinterest
Georgia church gets a lesson in science.

https://www.christianpost.com/news/geor ... us-236899/

A Georgia church that reopened after shutting down due to the coronavirus has axed in-person services again in what they describe as “an effort of extreme caution” as several of their families have become infected by the deadly disease.

Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - May 2020

Posted: Tue May 19, 2020 8:50 pm
by casinterest
Troubling Trend in NC.

Hospitalizations are going up, instead of down.

https://covid19.ncdhhs.gov/dashboard

Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - May 2020

Posted: Tue May 19, 2020 9:29 pm
by alberchico
https://twitter.com/maria_rendon97/stat ... 7506881536

These scenes are likely playing out all over the country...

Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - May 2020

Posted: Tue May 19, 2020 9:38 pm
by casinterest
alberchico wrote:
https://twitter.com/maria_rendon97/status/1262389337506881536?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1262389337506881536&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fs9e.github.io%2Fiframe%2F2%2Ftwitter.min.html%231262389337506881536

These scenes are likely playing out all over the country...


I can't believe they put that on a newscast, but yes Typical beach behavior, although that Texas accent is accentuated by the alcohol.

]

Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - May 2020

Posted: Wed May 20, 2020 12:23 am
by acavpics
Is it possible that a treatment drug could be widely available to the public this summer? I know that a vaccine is most likely coming only in late 2020 or early 2021. But if there is a viable cure rolled out soon (during the next few months), many of the world's industries could reopen to a close to normal capacity.

For example, the mayor of Los Angeles stated that "the city will not be fully reopen until there is a cure for coronavirus?" Could this "cure" (NOT vaccine) be available to the public by the end of summer?

Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - May 2020

Posted: Wed May 20, 2020 2:20 am
by PPVRA
acavpics wrote:
Is it possible that a treatment drug could be widely available to the public this summer? I know that a vaccine is most likely coming only in late 2020 or early 2021. But if there is a viable cure rolled out soon (during the next few months), many of the world's industries could reopen to a close to normal capacity.

For example, the mayor of Los Angeles stated that "the city will not be fully reopen until there is a cure for coronavirus?" Could this "cure" (NOT vaccine) be available to the public by the end of summer?


If it’s a drug that is already used for something else that is found to be effective against covid19, then sure. But a whole new drug is likely to take a long time to hit the hospitals.

This is why it’s such a bummer that hydroxychloroquine (sp?) didn’t work out.

Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - May 2020

Posted: Wed May 20, 2020 6:40 am
by ltbewr
There is a growing battle in the USA of being able to attend religious services with no or minimal restrictions including social distancing, masks, limits on overall numbers in a service just like with the growing number of businesses that are allowed to do. The US Department of Justice has sent letters to state Governors, including California, that they must allow religious facilities to be open like businesses and workplaces or it will be seen as religious discrimination and in violation of the USA's Constitution as to freedom of religion. It is also being used by Conservatives and religious groups against Governors and local political leaders, especially Democrats. In one case, local governments stopped a religious service where people stayed in their cars like going to a drive-in theater. Some of the worst spot outbreaks of Covid-19 in the USA and other countries involved attendance at religious services including funerals, so one factor in the bans/restrictions. Major organized faith groups, especially the Catholic Church, went along with total bans on in person services as respect the science and to protect their parishioners and communities. I suspect President Trump will make a comment bashing Democrat Governors about it in the next few days, demanding opening up faith facilities or face not getting any Federal funds their states need.
https://www.yahoo.com/news/u-department ... 20557.html

Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - May 2020

Posted: Wed May 20, 2020 10:57 pm
by Jalap
PPVRA wrote:
If it’s a drug that is already used for something else that is found to be effective against covid19, then sure. But a whole new drug is likely to take a long time to hit the hospitals.

This is why it’s such a bummer that hydroxychloroquine (sp?) didn’t work out.

Lots of positive indications from "Remdesivir".

And reading this gets a person in an optimistic mood: https://www.cnbc.com/2020/05/12/remdesi ... tries.html

Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - May 2020

Posted: Thu May 21, 2020 12:53 am
by acavpics
PPVRA wrote:
acavpics wrote:
Is it possible that a treatment drug could be widely available to the public this summer? I know that a vaccine is most likely coming only in late 2020 or early 2021. But if there is a viable cure rolled out soon (during the next few months), many of the world's industries could reopen to a close to normal capacity.

For example, the mayor of Los Angeles stated that "the city will not be fully reopen until there is a cure for coronavirus?" Could this "cure" (NOT vaccine) be available to the public by the end of summer?


If it’s a drug that is already used for something else that is found to be effective against covid19, then sure. But a whole new drug is likely to take a long time to hit the hospitals.

This is why it’s such a bummer that hydroxychloroquine (sp?) didn’t work out.


How abot antibody treatments? Such as the one that Sorrento Therapeutics is working on.

Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - May 2020

Posted: Thu May 21, 2020 5:33 am
by olle
Pentagon prepares for this to continue until 2021

This will likely continue until there is wide-scale immunity, through immunisation, and some immunity post-recovery from the virus.”

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/worl ... 24411.html

Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - May 2020

Posted: Thu May 21, 2020 11:13 am
by Francoflier
I'm not sure it has been posted on this thread yet, but Rystad Energy published and regularly updates a global COVID-19 report. While it was mostly commissioned by Oil companies for strategic purposes, it is freely available to download and is quite interesting.

Of particular note is their estimation that the number of actual cases is much higher than that of reported cases. While that in itself is pretty much established, the amount by which one exceeds the other is quite shockingly high according to them. We could be closing in on 100 million actual cases Worldwide by the end of June.

This, if true, lends credence to the theory that the disease is much more prevalent than thought and, assuming the death toll is much closer to reality as severe cases get tested, much less deadly than anticipated.

https://www.rystadenergy.com/newsevents ... 19-report/

Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - May 2020

Posted: Thu May 21, 2020 11:35 am
by olle
Uk is concerned that time for prepare for the second wave running out

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/heal ... 25336.html

Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - May 2020

Posted: Thu May 21, 2020 11:39 am
by casinterest
Francoflier wrote:
I'm not sure it has been posted on this thread yet, but Rystad Energy published and regularly updates a global COVID-19 report. While it was mostly commissioned by Oil companies for strategic purposes, it is freely available to download and is quite interesting.

Of particular note is their estimation that the number of actual cases is much higher than that of reported cases. While that in itself is pretty much established, the amount by which one exceeds the other is quite shockingly high according to them. We could be closing in on 100 million actual cases Worldwide by the end of June.

This, if true, lends credence to the theory that the disease is much more prevalent than thought and, assuming the death toll is much closer to reality as severe cases get tested, much less deadly than anticipated.

https://www.rystadenergy.com/newsevents ... 19-report/


Well it isn't exactly new. If we estimate 10x people are infected for every one reported,(which could still be high), then there are already 50 million.
At the current rate of 95-100,000+ a day of real diagnosis, we hit 100 million at the end of June no issues. That would still be a long way from the totality of earth.

Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - May 2020

Posted: Thu May 21, 2020 3:24 pm
by wingman
alberchico wrote:
https://twitter.com/maria_rendon97/status/1262389337506881536?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1262389337506881536&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fs9e.github.io%2Fiframe%2F2%2Ftwitter.min.html%231262389337506881536

These scenes are likely playing out all over the country...


It looks like a mass whale beaching. In all seriousness though, the orange core will start to self-eradicate. It's sad in many respects but just like you can't teach squirrels from running into the damn street there's no amount of medical science that can save these mega-mammals from almost certain death.

Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - May 2020

Posted: Thu May 21, 2020 4:35 pm
by Francoflier
wingman wrote:
alberchico wrote:
https://twitter.com/maria_rendon97/status/1262389337506881536?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1262389337506881536&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fs9e.github.io%2Fiframe%2F2%2Ftwitter.min.html%231262389337506881536

These scenes are likely playing out all over the country...


It looks like a mass whale beaching. In all seriousness though, the orange core will start to self-eradicate. It's sad in many respects but just like you can't teach squirrels from running into the damn street there's no amount of medical science that can save these mega-mammals from almost certain death.


Yeah, let's take a breath, a step back and relativise here...

The display of rampant obesity and eyebrow-raising trashy behavior is not a sight for sore eyes, for sure, but the beach is not a particularly propitious place for transmission. Groups tend to stick together and it is well ventilated. I'd be much less worried about catching it on a crowded beach than in a crowded store.
Additionally, beach goers are not the demographic most at risk of severe complications from the infection, despite this lot's apparent lack of general health.

And if you really wish for the demise of the people you dislike, I wouldn't bank on this virus to help you much.

Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - May 2020

Posted: Thu May 21, 2020 4:41 pm
by StarAC17
acavpics wrote:
Is it possible that a treatment drug could be widely available to the public this summer? I know that a vaccine is most likely coming only in late 2020 or early 2021. But if there is a viable cure rolled out soon (during the next few months), many of the world's industries could reopen to a close to normal capacity.

For example, the mayor of Los Angeles stated that "the city will not be fully reopen until there is a cure for coronavirus?" Could this "cure" (NOT vaccine) be available to the public by the end of summer?


There are really no cure for viruses and an over the counter Anti-viral like Tamiflu probably won't be available for a while and if it is should probably be saved for the worst cases. What we need is the ability to treat so that those who can survive will if the virus requires a hospitalization.

I might be playing with fire but I would say that you have to let viral infections run their course to the point that the patient can manage under public health supervision. Perhaps having an oxygen saturation sensor to determine if hypoxia is happening would be a really good preventative factor in determining when someone needs to go to the hospital. Not everyone who has hypoxia knows it and at that point time is of the essence.

ltbewr wrote:
There is a growing battle in the USA of being able to attend religious services with no or minimal restrictions including social distancing, masks, limits on overall numbers in a service just like with the growing number of businesses that are allowed to do. The US Department of Justice has sent letters to state Governors, including California, that they must allow religious facilities to be open like businesses and workplaces or it will be seen as religious discrimination and in violation of the USA's Constitution as to freedom of religion. It is also being used by Conservatives and religious groups against Governors and local political leaders, especially Democrats. In one case, local governments stopped a religious service where people stayed in their cars like going to a drive-in theater. Some of the worst spot outbreaks of Covid-19 in the USA and other countries involved attendance at religious services including funerals, so one factor in the bans/restrictions. Major organized faith groups, especially the Catholic Church, went along with total bans on in person services as respect the science and to protect their parishioners and communities. I suspect President Trump will make a comment bashing Democrat Governors about it in the next few days, demanding opening up faith facilities or face not getting any Federal funds their states need.
https://www.yahoo.com/news/u-department ... 20557.html


So this boils down to my freedom is more important than yours and many churches feel this way. Cue all of the court cases that will be tossed when people take private businesses to court over mask wearing which is the company policy. There is nothing in the US constitution that says that you have to attend a megachurch on Sundays. It says you have the right to practice your religion as you see fit, that can be done on Zoom or Webex from home.

Anti-Vaxxers are the same, their right to not vaccinate is fine and should not be infringed. But a school board or daycare has the right to say you have to produce the papers to attend.

casinterest wrote:
Francoflier wrote:
I'm not sure it has been posted on this thread yet, but Rystad Energy published and regularly updates a global COVID-19 report. While it was mostly commissioned by Oil companies for strategic purposes, it is freely available to download and is quite interesting.

Of particular note is their estimation that the number of actual cases is much higher than that of reported cases. While that in itself is pretty much established, the amount by which one exceeds the other is quite shockingly high according to them. We could be closing in on 100 million actual cases Worldwide by the end of June.

This, if true, lends credence to the theory that the disease is much more prevalent than thought and, assuming the death toll is much closer to reality as severe cases get tested, much less deadly than anticipated.

https://www.rystadenergy.com/newsevents ... 19-report/


Well it isn't exactly new. If we estimate 10x people are infected for every one reported,(which could still be high), then there are already 50 million.
At the current rate of 95-100,000+ a day of real diagnosis, we hit 100 million at the end of June no issues. That would still be a long way from the totality of earth.


I have heard 20 to 50x in some areas.
All the reason that testing needs to be randomized and if we test someone negative then we should highly suggest we check for antibodies from the same individual as perhaps they were asymptomatic or had minor symptoms that they didn't think anything of.

I know this going to freak out people but it is a huge positive if so many more people are getting this than reported because as you said the disease is not as deadly and we can assess a more accurate distribution of symptoms across all age groups.

Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - May 2020

Posted: Thu May 21, 2020 7:51 pm
by trpmb6
StarAC17 wrote:

I have heard 20 to 50x in some areas.
All the reason that testing needs to be randomized and if we test someone negative then we should highly suggest we check for antibodies from the same individual as perhaps they were asymptomatic or had minor symptoms that they didn't think anything of.

I know this going to freak out people but it is a huge positive if so many more people are getting this than reported because as you said the disease is not as deadly and we can assess a more accurate distribution of symptoms across all age groups.


Its why in rural states you are seeing some real big spikes in very specific spots like meat packing plants. In one of the plants in dodge city, Ks they tested every single person in the company and found a huge number of asymptomatic people. Our governor of course pointed to such a huge spike in cases as being indicative of a larger problem, when in reality, we had only been seeing severe cases get counted and all of a sudden you had a huge jump due to asymptomatic people being tested.

There was another plant in I think Iowa or Nebraska with similar findings. I linked that article up thread somewhere.

Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - May 2020

Posted: Thu May 21, 2020 9:19 pm
by UpNAWAy
It is now pretty obvious this was the biggest scam in world history. The only question was it controlled and centrally planned or just a natural reaction by a bunch of opportunist? Amazingly disappointing at the American public in particular for surrendering their lives so easily. It doesn't bode well for the future of liberty or economic prosperity.

Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - May 2020

Posted: Thu May 21, 2020 9:40 pm
by casinterest
trpmb6 wrote:
StarAC17 wrote:

I have heard 20 to 50x in some areas.
All the reason that testing needs to be randomized and if we test someone negative then we should highly suggest we check for antibodies from the same individual as perhaps they were asymptomatic or had minor symptoms that they didn't think anything of.

I know this going to freak out people but it is a huge positive if so many more people are getting this than reported because as you said the disease is not as deadly and we can assess a more accurate distribution of symptoms across all age groups.


Its why in rural states you are seeing some real big spikes in very specific spots like meat packing plants. In one of the plants in dodge city, Ks they tested every single person in the company and found a huge number of asymptomatic people. Our governor of course pointed to such a huge spike in cases as being indicative of a larger problem, when in reality, we had only been seeing severe cases get counted and all of a sudden you had a huge jump due to asymptomatic people being tested.

There was another plant in I think Iowa or Nebraska with similar findings. I linked that article up thread somewhere.



This also highlights the main issue. Relatively healthy workers are able to catch it and carry it. The problem is when it hits those with health issues that are not going to handle it well.

Remember the story of the church choir in WA state?
52 of 61 tested positive.
2 died.

Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - May 2020

Posted: Thu May 21, 2020 9:43 pm
by Newark727
UpNAWAy wrote:
It is now pretty obvious this was the biggest scam in world history. The only question was it controlled and centrally planned or just a natural reaction by a bunch of opportunist? Amazingly disappointing at the American public in particular for surrendering their lives so easily. It doesn't bode well for the future of liberty or economic prosperity.


That's, uh, certainly a theory. Mind putting some meat on those argumentative bones, or at least telling us who you think the perpetrators of this massive conspiracy are? The latter would at least be entertaining, if nothing else.

Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - May 2020

Posted: Thu May 21, 2020 10:14 pm
by UpNAWAy
I have no conspiracy ideas at all, but amazing in a world were no one agrees on anything we all agreed without question on this? And just look at the deaths this is a disease that effects people over 80 and up. The numbers of deaths under 60 are not even statistically relevant and those folks 95+% had other underlying health issues. Almost no healthy people have died from this. Pneumonia and the Flu have killed way more people this year than COVID for the under 65 age groups. The data doesn't support any of the actions taken and the reopening restrictions are also not data driven but emotional pablum that make no scientific or medical sense.

Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - May 2020

Posted: Thu May 21, 2020 10:41 pm
by Newark727
We all have an underlying health issue, namely mortality. The rhetorical convenience of "only old people get affected" sweeps an absolutely vast amount under the rug, including the probability of the virus being spread to those old people in the first place, the still-substantial numbers of under-50 people who have been sickened or killed, and the woeful inadequacy of "statistical significance" in describing public behavior at all.

Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - May 2020

Posted: Thu May 21, 2020 11:03 pm
by UpNAWAy
A relatively healthy person under 50 has more risk of getting struck by lightening than dying from covid, so why are we acting like this is a deadly plague, it is not. We could have done some very basic things like some reasonable social distancing and increase hygiene and enhanced measures for the sick and frail. Instead in the US we have decimated nursing homes and assisted living by not making those the main focus from the very beginning.

Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - May 2020

Posted: Thu May 21, 2020 11:07 pm
by Newark727
UpNAWAy wrote:
A relatively healthy person under 50 has more risk of getting struck by lightening than dying from covid, so why are we acting like this is a deadly plague, it is not. We could have done some very basic things like some reasonable social distancing and increase hygiene and enhanced measures for the sick and frail. Instead in the US we have decimated nursing homes and assisted living by not making those the main focus from the very beginning.


Sounds pretty inconvenient. Not sure why measures like that would be necessary for the "biggest scam in world history."

Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - May 2020

Posted: Thu May 21, 2020 11:26 pm
by Aaron747
UpNAWAy wrote:
I have no conspiracy ideas at all, but amazing in a world were no one agrees on anything we all agreed without question on this? And just look at the deaths this is a disease that effects people over 80 and up. The numbers of deaths under 60 are not even statistically relevant and those folks 95+% had other underlying health issues. Almost no healthy people have died from this. Pneumonia and the Flu have killed way more people this year than COVID for the under 65 age groups. The data doesn't support any of the actions taken and the reopening restrictions are also not data driven but emotional pablum that make no scientific or medical sense.


NIH and CDC don’t generally employ people with a resume of pablum, but hey, whatever floats your boat, that’s what you’re gonna believe. :boggled: Are you an MD/MPH, or you just enjoy armchair medicine?

Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - May 2020

Posted: Thu May 21, 2020 11:27 pm
by scbriml
UpNAWAy wrote:
It is now pretty obvious this was the biggest scam in world history. The only question was it controlled and centrally planned or just a natural reaction by a bunch of opportunist?


Also:

UpNAWAy wrote:
I have no conspiracy ideas at all


Your original post is a conspiracy theory. :lol:

Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - May 2020

Posted: Thu May 21, 2020 11:34 pm
by wingman
UpNAWAy wrote:
It is now pretty obvious this was the biggest scam in world history. The only question was it controlled and centrally planned or just a natural reaction by a bunch of opportunist? Amazingly disappointing at the American public in particular for surrendering their lives so easily. It doesn't bode well for the future of liberty or economic prosperity.


Whether it was controlled and centrally planned or orchestrated by a bunch of "opportunist", would the central control or orchestration by the collective opportunist be Trump, the Deep State, Hillary or Obama? I mean that is the fundamental question. Nearly four years in does Trump yet qualify as President and CIC or is he still saddled with a shadow government run by BarrrraK and Hilaree Rod-Man? Barr will need to launch an inquiry stat!

And while it doesn't bode well for economic prosperity, pandemics rarely do sadly, it does bode great for wanton displays of drooling ignorance! You must've separated from your whale pod following The Great Beaching in Texas. If you start a Go Fund Me page today by the weekend you might have enough for aerial transport back to Texas in a pool of Clorox. The pod is calling...

Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - May 2020

Posted: Fri May 22, 2020 12:27 am
by blueflyer
UpNAWAy wrote:
A relatively healthy person under 50 has more risk of getting struck by lightening than dying from covid, so why are we acting like this is a deadly plague, it is not. We could have done some very basic things like some reasonable social distancing and increase hygiene and enhanced measures for the sick and frail. Instead in the US we have decimated nursing homes and assisted living by not making those the main focus from the very beginning.

I am Donald J. Trump and I approve this message.

Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - May 2020

Posted: Fri May 22, 2020 1:08 am
by GalaxyFlyer
Newark727 wrote:
We all have an underlying health issue, namely mortality. The rhetorical convenience of "only old people get affected" sweeps an absolutely vast amount under the rug, including the probability of the virus being spread to those old people in the first place, the still-substantial numbers of under-50 people who have been sickened or killed, and the woeful inadequacy of "statistical significance" in describing public behavior at all.


Vastly more deaths over 70 than under 70. In some states more centenarians died than those under age 40.

Governors Cuomo, Murphy and Wolfe (NY, NJ, PA) are responsible for the deaths of about 50% or more of the total deaths in their states by their stupid order to force COVID-positive elderly be released to elderly housing post-hospital. That bit killed thousands when the whole lockdown justification (even here) was saving Grandma. Well, those politicians killed grandma,

Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - May 2020

Posted: Fri May 22, 2020 1:36 am
by Aesma
Pi7472000 wrote:
Hello!

There are many people who do not believe in vaccines and refuse to get them. Will require that all people show their vaccine papers in the future when we get one for COVID19 to help get people traveling again? I have had to show that I got a yellow fever shot when I enter certain countries so am wondering if this would be solution in the future. If you don't want a vaccine then you can stay in your local area.


It may in part hinge on the vaccine itself.

For example if you can't give it to a significant number of people, then you need others to take it consistently.

Vaccines are not tested on pregnant women usually. Then on people with such and such health condition.

Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - May 2020

Posted: Fri May 22, 2020 6:18 am
by Chemist
UpNAWAy wrote:
A relatively healthy person under 50 has more risk of getting struck by lightening than dying from covid, so why are we acting like this is a deadly plague, it is not. We could have done some very basic things like some reasonable social distancing and increase hygiene and enhanced measures for the sick and frail. Instead in the US we have decimated nursing homes and assisted living by not making those the main focus from the very beginning.


With an unknown virus, you don't know these things for a while, so caution makes sense. As we learn more, we adjust.
Not sure why that is so hard to understand.