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Chemist
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - May 2020

Tue May 26, 2020 6:05 pm

There was an article about a UK epidimiologist who at 71 got very sick but has survived. The article pointed out that you can't just treat this like "x% live and y% die". This man has survived but has serious lung damage. He will be impaired for the rest of his life, and the article indicates he may have to take anti-coagulants for the rest of his life.

So when we are talking about the mortality rate, that's a bit simplistic as there may be a lot more people who survive but are never the same. And that impaired percentage might well exceed the mortality rate by a lot.
 
Jalap
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - May 2020

Tue May 26, 2020 10:50 pm

IgorD wrote:
The infection death rate of some 1% should hold.

I've also been having a look at excess deaths and antibodies testing results in a few countries where that data as available.
And indeed, we're looking at about 1% infection death rate.

It won't be much higher, a higher percentage cannot be explained.
It could be lower, if many people who got infected in the past don't have (measurable) antibodies.

Working with 1%, it's pretty easy to count the amount of lives that are being saved thanks to the measures taken worldwide.
 
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Francoflier
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - May 2020

Wed May 27, 2020 3:18 am

tommy1808 wrote:

So... almost 99 of 100 symptomatic pople are now testing negative apparently? By far most people testing negative where asymptomatic.... that is what contact tracing is: testing each and every asymptomatic person an infected person had contact with.
They are obviously not a cross section of the general population, but i would like to see you try an argument why people that had contact with an infected person should not test positive at a higher rate than the general public around them.

Under reported.. sure. By an order of magnitude? Not even close.


Who is saying that symptomatic people are testing negative?
You seem to forget that most of the testing that is done is PCR testing, which misses people who might already have been infected previously or asymptomatic people who might not have detectable levels of virus in their bodies. Antibody testing is the only way to determine which percentage of a population has been exposed to the virus at some stage.

Let's not forget that this thing was circulating in Europe and the US since very early this year or even late last year. There would have been many cases missed as they happened before large scale testing was even a thing.

That is the problem with this disease, most people contracting it will only show mild symptoms or no symptoms at all, meaning they won't seek healthcare and will go on spreading it unknowingly.

As for tests conducted on close contacts, I don't know what kind of results they return. I'm guessing it's higher than average, yes, but it all depends on the contagiousness of the disease, winch would vary with the overall number of infection, and the kind of testing done. There is nothing preventing a large proportion of close contacts having contracted it (again, depending on contagiousness), but testing negative as they have already shed it or just never showed symptoms. It is not an indication of prevalence unless they are all tested for antibodies.

its above 0.6%, or over a million dead for the US, even if that ridiculous 10x idea is true, and below 20%. And we know it gets nasty if it makes it into the Senior Population, just look at Italy´s 15% or 11% in Spain. Germany has 4.6% and not all that much room for missed cases.....

best regards
Thomas


Not much room for missed cases? You are, once again, assuming that all cases become symptomatic enough to get tested, which is far from the truth. Germany, like many countries, mostly test people who seek healthcare and nowhere near a representative portion of the population. Around 5% of the population has been tested in Germany, for instance, which is about on par with most developed countries, and includes many repeat tests of infected patients and healthcare workers.

Again, most who contract the virus will only show mild or no symptoms, especially in the younger age groups. These people are very unlikely to get tested. What we are seeing at the moment might very well be the tip of the iceberg as all numbers we have so far focus on the visible part of the outbreak, i.e. hospitalizations and deaths.

Until generalized and randomized antibody testing is made, we will have no idea what the overall exposure rate is. However, the preliminary studies coming out are showing that it might be close to an order of magnitude higher than detected cases. If that is the case, then while the death rate among those showing more severe symptoms might be relatively high, the overall death rate would be much lower.

There are still many unknown variables at the moment so, yes... TBD, and way too early to make conclusions.
I'll do my own airline. With Blackjack. And hookers. In fact, forget the airline.
 
tommy1808
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - May 2020

Wed May 27, 2020 4:54 am

Francoflier wrote:
tommy1808 wrote:

So... almost 99 of 100 symptomatic pople are now testing negative apparently? By far most people testing negative where asymptomatic.... that is what contact tracing is: testing each and every asymptomatic person an infected person had contact with.
They are obviously not a cross section of the general population, but i would like to see you try an argument why people that had contact with an infected person should not test positive at a higher rate than the general public around them.

Under reported.. sure. By an order of magnitude? Not even close.


Who is saying that symptomatic people are testing negative?.


You, given how much testing there is by now. Even if you are asymptomatic, you are still infected for ~2 weeks.There just isn´t any conceivable way for 99 of 100 people testing negative, unless a) there are not all that many asymptomatic people to beginn with, or b) infected people test negative all the freaking time.

Your claim was "The truth is, until large-scale randomized antibody testing is made on the population, we will not know how prevalent the disease is.", and that is just wrong. Even if the number of infected was stable since case one, obvious an ridiculous idea, you still have 10% of anyone that ever had it currently infected. And yet 99 out of 100 tests here are negative. Since we currently have 20k positive people in country, even if that was a perfectly randomized test, and not selected by contact tracing, that puts a fairly hard roof on numbers.

Please, do plot a pathway where only 1% of tests are positive, 0.025% are currently known infected (a- and symptomatic) and more than 5% of the population had it since January 1st..

Randomized testing is only going to lower that, since you currently test people feeling sick and their contacts.

best regards
Thomas
Well, there is prophecy in the bible after all: 2 Timothy 3:1-6
 
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Francoflier
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - May 2020

Wed May 27, 2020 1:16 pm

What?

Again, who is saying that 99% of tests come back negative? Where does that 99% figure come from? How do you infer that there are no more infected people than those already detected?

In countries like Germany, so far, around 5% of tests done have been positive. In Spain and Italy, it's closer to 8%.
If we (wrongly) extrapolated this figure to the entire population, that would give over 4 million cases for Germany alone. But as I said, the tests are currently not done on a representative portion of the population, so this extrapolation would be wrong as they mostly target sick people, their relatives and those most at risk of contracting it. This 5% would likely be lower if we tested random samples of the population, but no one knows by how much. The thing is, it doesn't need to be very high to be 10 times higher than the current total of cases. If Germany has around 180k cases, then 10 times that number is still only around 2% of the population. Going from 5% positives with the current 'targeted' approach to testing to 2% by randomizing is not that much of a stretch, especially since we want to include all infections, regardless of their severity, since the start of the outbreak.

These tests are also, once again, mostly PCR tests, which show whether the virus is present in 'sufficient' quantity in the body or not at the time of testing, not whether the person has been previously infected. The accuracy of this test also varies widely depending on testing conditions and the stage of the disease.

Again, there is no testing that allows us to know how many people have contracted the virus yet until we do large scale randomized antibody testing. The current way we are testing is limited and does not paint an accurate picture of the situation. All it does is keep tabs on those who show the worst symptoms, meaning those who seek healthcare. We don't know how many people out there have or had the virus but without enough symptoms to seek healthcare or be tested. There is not enough testing done to pretend that the entirety of the outbreak is being accounted for.
Until we know this, there is no way of determining the death rate and accurately model the spread of the disease in the future.
Last edited by Francoflier on Wed May 27, 2020 1:27 pm, edited 1 time in total.
I'll do my own airline. With Blackjack. And hookers. In fact, forget the airline.
 
tommy1808
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - May 2020

Wed May 27, 2020 1:27 pm

Francoflier wrote:
In countries like Germany, so far, around 5% of tests done have been positive.


That was a long, long time ago.

Week 18: 3.9%
Week 19: 2.7%
Week 20: 1.7%

https://www.n-tv.de/panorama/Positive-C ... 95167.html

Best regards
Thomas
Well, there is prophecy in the bible after all: 2 Timothy 3:1-6
 
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Francoflier
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - May 2020

Wed May 27, 2020 1:36 pm

I'm talking about the overall number of infections since the start, not the number of cases detected at any given time.
So far, taking the total number of tests and positives from the start, we still are at 5% or more for Germany, 6+ for Italy and the UK, around 8 for Spain, over 10% for the US, etc.

What I am saying is that this does not accurately represent the total number of people who have been infected at some stage in any of these countries, and in order to understand the prevalence of the virus and the accurate probability of death or severe complications, we need to know that figure.
I'll do my own airline. With Blackjack. And hookers. In fact, forget the airline.
 
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zkojq
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - May 2020

Wed May 27, 2020 3:37 pm

So here in New Zealand everything is back to normal, other than no international travel, more limited domestic flying, no cruise ships and lots of people (myself included) wearing masks when out and about. Today the last remaining COVID19 patient in hospital was discharged. No new cases in five days and 21 people still recovering from the virus. Most importantly random community testing has been going on for weeks and so far noone diagnosed through that method which suggests minor if any community transmission.

That being said, it's not over until it's over. Better not to count too many chickens before they've hatched. ;)

scbriml wrote:
Chemist wrote:
Not sure why that is so hard to understand.
Many are probably the same people who built a fortified safe room in their basement and filled it with provisions and weapons ready for the apocalypse, but can't handle being asked to stay at home for a few weeks to stop the spread of a highly contagious virus.


HA! I hadn't yet noticed that irony before.
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lowwkjax
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - May 2020

Wed May 27, 2020 4:16 pm

tommy1808 wrote:
Francoflier wrote:
In countries like Germany, so far, around 5% of tests done have been positive.


That was a long, long time ago.

Week 18: 3.9%
Week 19: 2.7%
Week 20: 1.7%

https://www.n-tv.de/panorama/Positive-C ... 95167.html

Best regards
Thomas


Yeah. Now. But how many of them would’ve came back positive let’s say in March?

Stating numbers of PCR tests which come back positive now (or just recently) doesn’t say anything at all, since - thankfully - the outbreak has been under control for quite some time now. For whatever reason, either lockdowns or because it was already naturally slowing down at the time measures were started.
 
StarAC17
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - May 2020

Wed May 27, 2020 4:53 pm

zkojq wrote:
So here in New Zealand everything is back to normal, other than no international travel, more limited domestic flying, no cruise ships and lots of people (myself included) wearing masks when out and about. Today the last remaining COVID19 patient in hospital was discharged. No new cases in five days and 21 people still recovering from the virus. Most importantly random community testing has been going on for weeks and so far noone diagnosed through that method which suggests minor if any community transmission.

That being said, it's not over until it's over. Better not to count too many chickens before they've hatched. ;)

scbriml wrote:
Chemist wrote:
Not sure why that is so hard to understand.
Many are probably the same people who built a fortified safe room in their basement and filled it with provisions and weapons ready for the apocalypse, but can't handle being asked to stay at home for a few weeks to stop the spread of a highly contagious virus.


HA! I hadn't yet noticed that irony before.


This is a good test to see what happens going forward and to see if the virus is still there. NZ is one of the most isolated places in the world and with no international travelers coming in will this persist or is the virus still hiding in asymptomatic and mild cases.
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AirWorthy99
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - May 2020

Wed May 27, 2020 5:05 pm

zkojq wrote:
So here in New Zealand everything is back to normal, other than no international travel, more limited domestic flying, no cruise ships and lots of people (myself included) wearing masks when out and about. Today the last remaining COVID19 patient in hospital was discharged. No new cases in five days and 21 people still recovering from the virus. Most importantly random community testing has been going on for weeks and so far noone diagnosed through that method which suggests minor if any community transmission.

That being said, it's not over until it's over. Better not to count too many chickens before they've hatched. ;)



For a country that 5.8% of its GDP is from Tourism, and is not accepting tourists or international travelers, I wonder how is that going to affect NZ.

My belief is many many people in NZ is not back "to normal" since its a huge chunk of the economy. Perhaps it can be 'normal' to many but having no job, or no income for a lot of people that depend on tourism, its going to be tough. The government can only provide 'help' for a finite amount of time.

The big question is, how long would that last, not only in NZ but in much of the world that has closed its borders, and most importantly those nations that their economies depend largely on foreign travel.

To me, the current position of any country closing itself off from foreign country is unsustainable, and on the long run its only avoiding the inevitable. Of course you are expecting a vaccine. If a vaccine is not done, what would NZ do? keep closed for ever?
“It’s easy to confuse ‘what is’ with ‘what ought to be,’ especially when ‘what is’ has worked out in your favor.” Tyrion Lannister
 
winginit
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - May 2020

Wed May 27, 2020 5:15 pm

AirWorthy99 wrote:
To me, the current position of any country closing itself off from foreign country is unsustainable, and on the long run its only avoiding the inevitable. Of course you are expecting a vaccine. If a vaccine is not done, what would NZ do? keep closed for ever?


I suspect they could simply adopt what, for example, Austria is starting to spool up, which is testing all inbound international passengers upon arrival. I'd expect them to open up this Summer with that in place.
 
ltbewr
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - May 2020

Wed May 27, 2020 5:59 pm

I think what seems to be developing in many countries and in parts of the USA is a very show decline, effectively a plateau of new cases, hospitalization and deaths that will show still needing social distancing and other policies in place. There will still be spikes, like in nursing homes, meat processing and where social distancing and related polices are not being followed or pulled back too far from political, social and economic pressures.

One continuing problem is the 'superspreaders', where one person who is knowingly infected or infected but asymptomatic in certain circumstances infects or causes an exponential spike in infections. There are for example reports of hairdressers reopening their shops infecting dozens in some locations in the USA, as had no income or savings, not eligible for Unemployment Insurance, states not restricting their businesses and failure to use proper PPE or health protections of patrons. Reopened bars that fail to enforce social distancing are also hotspots, in the USA and cities in South Korea for example.
 
M564038
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - May 2020

Wed May 27, 2020 6:00 pm

In my country we have tested a lot.
Based on this, they believed we had 1% infected.
But we have also tested a huge number of people randomly for anti-bodies, and these tests have shown that a lot less of the poulation than we thought have had this virus.

Only around 0.5%

That makes it a lot more deadly, but a lot less contagous.

Francoflier wrote:
What?

Again, who is saying that 99% of tests come back negative? Where does that 99% figure come from? How do you infer that there are no more infected people than those already detected?

In countries like Germany, so far, around 5% of tests done have been positive. In Spain and Italy, it's closer to 8%.
If we (wrongly) extrapolated this figure to the entire population, that would give over 4 million cases for Germany alone. But as I said, the tests are currently not done on a representative portion of the population, so this extrapolation would be wrong as they mostly target sick people, their relatives and those most at risk of contracting it. This 5% would likely be lower if we tested random samples of the population, but no one knows by how much. The thing is, it doesn't need to be very high to be 10 times higher than the current total of cases. If Germany has around 180k cases, then 10 times that number is still only around 2% of the population. Going from 5% positives with the current 'targeted' approach to testing to 2% by randomizing is not that much of a stretch, especially since we want to include all infections, regardless of their severity, since the start of the outbreak.

These tests are also, once again, mostly PCR tests, which show whether the virus is present in 'sufficient' quantity in the body or not at the time of testing, not whether the person has been previously infected. The accuracy of this test also varies widely depending on testing conditions and the stage of the disease.

Again, there is no testing that allows us to know how many people have contracted the virus yet until we do large scale randomized antibody testing. The current way we are testing is limited and does not paint an accurate picture of the situation. All it does is keep tabs on those who show the worst symptoms, meaning those who seek healthcare. We don't know how many people out there have or had the virus but without enough symptoms to seek healthcare or be tested. There is not enough testing done to pretend that the entirety of the outbreak is being accounted for.
Until we know this, there is no way of determining the death rate and accurately model the spread of the disease in the future.
 
N212R
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - May 2020

Wed May 27, 2020 7:36 pm

AirWorthy99 wrote:
To me, the current position of any country closing itself off from foreign country is unsustainable, and on the long run its only avoiding the inevitable. Of course you are expecting a vaccine. If a vaccine is not done, what would NZ do? keep closed for ever?


You underestimate the adaptable capacity of the human species. We didn't get to the top of the animal heap for nothing. Nor did we self-sustainably survive on isolated islands for millenia for no good reason.
 
tommy1808
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - May 2020

Wed May 27, 2020 7:44 pm

lowwkjax wrote:
tommy1808 wrote:
Francoflier wrote:
In countries like Germany, so far, around 5% of tests done have been positive.


That was a long, long time ago.

Week 18: 3.9%
Week 19: 2.7%
Week 20: 1.7%

https://www.n-tv.de/panorama/Positive-C ... 95167.html

Best regards
Thomas


Yeah. Now. But how many of them would’ve came back positive let’s say in March?


There is just a small window for the test to detect an infection, the last four weeks (2 weeks to get sick, 2 to recover or die) are hence a good indicator for undetected spread, as the contact-tracing net would turn up those cases, since tons of asymptomatic people get tested and come back negative. It does give you an upper limit.

Best regard
Thomas
Well, there is prophecy in the bible after all: 2 Timothy 3:1-6
 
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zkojq
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - May 2020

Thu May 28, 2020 2:58 am

zkojq wrote:
So here in New Zealand everything is back to normal, other than no international travel, more limited domestic flying, no cruise ships and lots of people (myself included) wearing masks when out and about. Today the last remaining COVID19 patient in hospital was discharged. No new cases in five days and 21 people still recovering from the virus. Most importantly random community testing has been going on for weeks and so far noone diagnosed through that method which suggests minor if any community transmission.

That being said, it's not over until it's over. Better not to count too many chickens before they've hatched. ;)


Looks like I was premature with my caution - as of lunchtime today there's now only eight people with the virus. 8. We'll be done with this by the end of the week. :praise:


StarAC17 wrote:
This is a good test to see what happens going forward and to see if the virus is still there. NZ is one of the most isolated places in the world and with no international travelers coming in will this persist or is the virus still hiding in asymptomatic and mild cases.


Yes - I'm quite surprised that nothing has been picked up in the random testing. There's also loads of testing going on for anyone who has been showing any kind of symptoms but again there hasn't been anything picked up that can't be directly linked to overseas travel or contact with family members who have had overseas travel.

AirWorthy99 wrote:
For a country that 5.8% of its GDP is from Tourism, and is not accepting tourists or international travelers, I wonder how is that going to affect NZ.


It's not great but if you hadn't noticed everyone's economy is getting screwed right now.

Who would you rather be: UK with tourism as 10% of GDP with the borders wide open, a very weak lockdown, the virus out of control with hospitals closing to new admissions, tens of thousands dead and a government which has shown incompetence at every step of the way down the road of dealing with the crisis.....Or New Zealand with tourism as 5.8% of GDP, the borders firmly shut to non-residents and very strict quarantining for two weeks for any residents who do arrive back, a very strong and successful lockdown, only eight people in the whole country infected with the virus (none of those in hospital), the economy reopened and a government who has shown a huge amount of competence, leadership and empathy throughout.

How many people in the Netherlands are nipping across to the UK for a weekend getaway right now? It's the same as the number of people in Australia coming over to Queenstown for a weekend skiiing.


AirWorthy99 wrote:
My belief is many many people in NZ is not back "to normal" since its a huge chunk of the economy. Perhaps it can be 'normal' to many but having no job, or no income for a lot of people that depend on tourism, its going to be tough. The government can only provide 'help' for a finite amount of time.


The country's who's economy will fare best is the country who can deal with the virus quickly, crush it, and get back to normal asap. In New Zealand the Wage Subsidy scheme has been incredibly successful at keeping people on the payroll. Also important is that a huge percentage of tourism jobs were always done by foreigners on "Working Holiday" visas - they've since been repatriated back home.

AirWorthy99 wrote:
The big question is, how long would that last, not only in NZ but in much of the world that has closed its borders, and most importantly those nations that their economies depend largely on foreign travel.



AirWorthy99 wrote:
To me, the current position of any country closing itself off from foreign country is unsustainable, and on the long run its only avoiding the inevitable. Of course you are expecting a vaccine. If a vaccine is not done, what would NZ do? keep closed for ever?


Oh I don't know, maybe testing international arrivals upon landing from overseas? In the short term at least, blaming the border closure for future economic strife is a pointless distraction. Most of our tourism spend is from Europeans - how do they get here? Mainly via airports in the Middle East and Asia which are now closed to transfer passengers. And even if they wern't, most governments in Europe are (rightly) advising against or outright banning foreign travel. Noone thinks the border will closer forever. We will adapt and eventually some other countries will probably get it under control. Right?

And anyway the Trans-Tasman Bubble looks likely to be coming in a month or so. I'm very skeptical of a July date, but when it happens it will be a good start:

A high-powered group investigating opening up trans-Tasman travel amid the coronavirus pandemic hopes to put its proposal to politicians by early June, and get people travelling by the July school holidays.

New Zealanders currently can not travel outside the country under coronavirus alert level 2, but both New Zealand and Australia's success in limiting the spread of Covid-19 has enabled discussion about possible trans-Tasman travel without a quarantine.

Some struggling tourism operators say a trans-Tasman bubble would be a lifeline for them.

The ‘Trans-Tasman Safe Border Group’ is made up of 11 government agencies, six airports, two airlines, and includes health experts and airline, airport and border agency representatives from both Australia and New Zealand.

The Australian government was considering opening travel between New South Wales and Victoria to New Zealand, ahead of domestic travel to Queensland.

Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern has not set a date for how soon the bubble could be set up, saying both countries would need to be comfortable.

Ardern spoke with Australian prime minister Scott Morrison on Tuesday about the proposal, and said on Wednesday that there was enthusiasm on both sides of the Tasman.

"We both know neither country wants to see cases imported from the other, and inter-state travel in Australia is obviously still restricted in some places, but the economic benefits of greater trans-Tasman travel will be significant," she said.

New Zealand had its fifth day in a row of no new Covid-19 cases on Wednesday, while Australia's new cases have been under 20 a day for much of this month, and on some days well under 10.

Deputy Prime Minister Winston Peters has broken rank with Labour, saying that quarantine-free trans-Tasman travel should already be allowed.

However, Peters told a Trans-Tasman Business Circle briefing on Wednesday that opening the trans-Tasman border was urgent for both economies, but the two countries were not yet ready.

“If the decision was made today could we start tomorrow, I’m going to be honest and say no - but we’re working on it with the greatest of urgency now so that if the decision was made sooner rather than later, we’d be off and hopefully got every contingency foreseeable and imaginable covered,” Peters said.


https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/indust ... ng-by-july
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Toenga
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - May 2020

Thu May 28, 2020 3:52 am

New Zealand is now in level 2 restrictions. It's internal economy minus overseas tourism, and some social distancing restrictions is basically up and running.
Our local restaurant had a lot more diners last night then normal for a Wednesday night. Tourism Holdings Ltd which is the largest RV rental firm in the world has just severly discounted it's NZ hire rates, and reports bookings are now like the Rugby World Cup.
Whilst tourism is a significant part of our economy there is also a partial offset as Kiwis are usually great exporters of travel also, and this being not available, will substantially boost internal tourism.
The four and a half weeks of very stringent lockdown followed by two and a half weeks of slightly more relaxed lockdown has meant we now have schools, shops, bars and restaurants fully open whilst most of the rest of the world is stumbling along with only partial reopening and their vulnerable people living in fear of being infected and perhaps even dying.
Here work is proceeding apace on harmonising border controls and tracing so we can reciprocally open our border with Australia once they reopen their state borders, and remnant transmission is nailed in Victoria and NSW. The other states and territories are already in an equivalent imfection state to New Zealand.
Opening our border with Australia will address our biggest reciprocal tourist market. Many Covid controlled Pacific Islands will probably reopen with us at about the same time. Just as importantly, these border openings will address the bulk of family connection travel and the majority of our international business travel needs.
So yes our economy and employment has taken a hit, but probably about half the hit, is a result of Covid, independent of NZ's border closures. Cruise ships would not be calling here at the moment regardless of border controls.
Having huge numbers of people off sick or dying also comes with high economic costs which New Zealand and Australia have avoided.
Both Australia and New Zealand have done a tremendous job in keeping Covid away from our vulnerable indigenous and Pacifica peoples therefore saving many many lives. The economy will revive from this set back, the same cannot be said of hundreds of thousands of people worldwide infected by Covid 19.
 
AirWorthy99
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - May 2020

Thu May 28, 2020 1:07 pm

zkojq wrote:

Oh I don't know, maybe testing international arrivals upon landing from overseas? In the short term at least, blaming the border closure for future economic strife is a pointless distraction. Most of our tourism spend is from Europeans - how do they get here? Mainly via airports in the Middle East and Asia which are now closed to transfer passengers. And even if they wern't, most governments in Europe are (rightly) advising against or outright banning foreign travel. Noone thinks the border will closer forever. We will adapt and eventually some other countries will probably get it under control. Right?

And anyway the Trans-Tasman Bubble looks likely to be coming in a month or so. I'm very skeptical of a July date, but when it happens it will be a good start:



May I ask, are the Kiwis willing not to travel abroad either for the foreseeable future, hoping for a vaccine?

Any Kiwi that even dares to step foot outside of NZ, might just get it the moment they arrive to another country. Are you guys willing not to travel abroad anymore, hoping and expecting a vaccine?
“It’s easy to confuse ‘what is’ with ‘what ought to be,’ especially when ‘what is’ has worked out in your favor.” Tyrion Lannister
 
melpax
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - May 2020

Thu May 28, 2020 2:29 pm

[quote="AirWorthy99"][/quote]

I'm not sure of what the current situation in NZ is, but here in Australia, Australian Citizens & Permanent Residents must apply for permission to leave Australia. The only reasons are for compassionate family reasons, or to conduct urgent Corporate or Government business that can't be done in Australia. Given the current advice for overseas travel for both countries is 'Do Not Travel', I wouldn't be suprised if Travel Insurance is either impossible to obtain, or very expensive ATM.

Once travel is re-opened, I suspect that Travel Insurance will be either very expensive or hard to obtain for certain groups of travellers, especially for places such as the US. For older Australian travellers, overseas travel might be limited to countries with reciprocal health coverage agreements such as NZ & the UK if the insurers start making it hard for older folk to obtain coverage.
Essendon - Whatever it takes......
 
dtw2hyd
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - May 2020

Thu May 28, 2020 8:58 pm

I think New Zealand model is perfectly acceptable. Control locally, open up domestic travel and slowly open up international travel.

IMHO, international tourism is a wash, unless your economy is entirely dependent on foreign tourists. For any normal country, foreigners may not spend money on your soil, but citizens will do to make up the losses.

With so many countries either not testing or cooking up numbers, there is no need to follow the Lake of Ozarks model. Baby steps are the best, otherwise there will be never ending waves and peaks. You have to watch out for those making bold claims.
All posts are just opinions.
 
Toenga
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - May 2020

Thu May 28, 2020 9:51 pm

[/quote]

May I ask, are the Kiwis willing not to travel abroad either for the foreseeable future, hoping for a vaccine?

Any Kiwi that even dares to step foot outside of NZ, might just get it the moment they arrive to another country. Are you guys willing not to travel abroad anymore, hoping and expecting a vaccine?[/quote]

Kiwis are currently freely allowed to travel abroad, unlike Australians. My guess is this freedom may be revisited as part of the negotiations to open the trans Tasman bubble. But like Australia, we must go into Government controlled 14 day minimum isolation upon return. Currently this is government funded, to allow expats to return home, but I can see this changing and it being charged for. So facing a 14 day isolation upon our return, expensive or non available travel insurance, and an above minimal chance of catching covid whilst out of the country, overseas travel is unattractive to most of us. I think we are resigned to the fact we have to delay our ambitions in that direction until a vaccine is found. With a trans Tasman and Pacific island bubble coming it will not be a bad confinement.
 
Eyad89
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - May 2020

Fri May 29, 2020 2:36 am

AirWorthy99 wrote:


To me, the current position of any country closing itself off from foreign country is unsustainable, and on the long run its only avoiding the inevitable. Of course you are expecting a vaccine. If a vaccine is not done, what would NZ do? keep closed for ever?


The lockdown or border closing by itself isn't harming the economy, it is the huge drop in the confidence of consumers that stopped spending. I saw a US poll where 70% of responders would still not leave home unless it is needed as long as the risk of infection is present.

The economy will not recover until a vaccine is found or significant herd immunity is achieved; otherwise travel and tourism will stay in depression as long as the virus exists whether governments close their borders or not.
 
tommy1808
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - May 2020

Fri May 29, 2020 6:53 am

Eyad89 wrote:
AirWorthy99 wrote:


To me, the current position of any country closing itself off from foreign country is unsustainable, and on the long run its only avoiding the inevitable. Of course you are expecting a vaccine. If a vaccine is not done, what would NZ do? keep closed for ever?


The lockdown or border closing by itself isn't harming the economy, it is the huge drop in the confidence of consumers that stopped spending. I saw a US poll where 70% of responders would still not leave home unless it is needed as long as the risk of infection is present.

The economy will not recover until a vaccine is found or significant herd immunity is achieved; otherwise travel and tourism will stay in depression as long as the virus exists whether governments close their borders or not.


Or the outbreak is under control well enough that the risk is minuscule. Of course that ship has sailed with a Government in office that has a history of lying about the danger.

best regards
Thomas
Well, there is prophecy in the bible after all: 2 Timothy 3:1-6
 
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zkojq
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - May 2020

Fri May 29, 2020 11:56 am

So with seven people recovering overnight, New Zealand is now down to one confirmed case of Corona virus in the whole country.

AirWorthy99 wrote:
May I ask, are the Kiwis willing not to travel abroad either for the foreseeable future, hoping for a vaccine?

Any Kiwi that even dares to step foot outside of NZ, might just get it the moment they arrive to another country. Are you guys willing not to travel abroad anymore, hoping and expecting a vaccine?


You don't seem to have realized that International Tourism has essentially stopped. Ignore New Zealand and Australia's travel ban - it's completely irrelevant at this point. How much international tourism is happening in Japan? How much international tourism is happening in France? How much international tourism is happening in Canada? How much international tourism is happening in Ecuador? The answer to it all is a resounding no - and that's not likely to change in the coming months. How many international tourists is the UK going to get when inbound arrivals will have to quarantine inside a hotel for 14 days on arrival? Again, it's zero.

As above I ask: Who would you rather be: UK with tourism as 10% of GDP with the borders wide open, a very weak lockdown, the virus out of control with hospitals closing to new admissions, tens of thousands dead and a government which has shown incompetence at every step of the way down the road of dealing with the crisis.....Or New Zealand with tourism as 5.8% of GDP, the borders firmly shut to non-residents and very strict quarantining for two weeks for any residents who do arrive back, a very strong and successful lockdown, only eight people in the whole country infected with the virus (none of those in hospital), the economy reopened and a government who has shown a huge amount of competence, leadership and empathy throughout.

As I said above, it's not like there would be tourists coming in if there was no travel ban. The only effect it really had was stopping rich foreigners flying in to hide in their Otago Armageddon bunkers. I'm fine with that.

Eyad89 wrote:
The lockdown or border closing by itself isn't harming the economy, it is the huge drop in the confidence of consumers that stopped spending. I saw a US poll where 70% of responders would still not leave home unless it is needed as long as the risk of infection is present.

The economy will not recover until a vaccine is found or significant herd immunity is achieved; otherwise travel and tourism will stay in depression as long as the virus exists whether governments close their borders or not.

:checkmark: Or the virus is controlled/eliminated. Which doesn't seem likely in some parts of the world. Not without competent governance at least.
First to fly the 787-9
 
olle
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - May 2020

Fri May 29, 2020 12:19 pm

Sweden succeeded to increase GDP during Q1 but Q2 will be disaster. With a lot of luck Recession can be avoided.

But many countries is already in recession

Swedish growth of plus - minus in several other countries

Sweden's gross domestic product (GDP) grew by 0.1 per cent in the first quarter compared to the previous quarter. Compared to the corresponding period in 2019, GDP increased by 0.4 percent, according to Statistics Sweden (Statistics Sweden). Several other countries reported negative growth on Friday.



Read on later
Household consumption decreased by 1.7 per cent compared with the previous quarter. Public consumption fell by 0.3 per cent. Exports increased by 3.4 per cent and imports fell by 0.2 per cent.

During the fourth quarter of 2019, GDP was unchanged compared to the previous quarter and increased by 0.5 per cent compared with the corresponding period a year earlier.

Statistics are adjusted for calendar effects and seasonal variations.

Several other countries presented growth figures on Friday.

Finland's economy shrank for the second quarter in a row during the first quarter of the year, according to new official statistics. This means that the country is in recession, by definition.

During the period January to March, Finland's gross domestic product (GDP) fell by 0.9 percent compared to the previous quarter when the decline was 0.6 percent, according to revised figures. On a yearly basis, GDP fell by 1.1 per cent.

The corona crisis reduces Denmark's GDP by 2.1 per cent in the first quarter of the year compared to the previous quarter, according to the country's statistics office. Compared to the first quarter of last year, the decline was 0.3 percent.

The decline is most evident in passenger transport, hotels and restaurants, the service sector and culture and leisure - sectors affected by Danish infection control measures, with a partially shut down economy since March.

In the fourth quarter, growth in Denmark was 0.4 per cent on a quarterly basis, according to revised figures. Earlier calculation of fourth-quarter growth was 0.6 percent.

The French economy shrank less than expected in the first quarter, according to the INSEE Statistics Office. The GDP fall was 5.3 per cent compared with the previous quarter, which can be compared with a preliminary calculation of 5.8 per cent.

Despite the upward revision, the decline is the worst for the French economy since 1968, when the country was shaken by extensive student protests, general strikes and riots.

At the same time, INSEE reports catastrophe figures for French retail in April, with a rate of 33.7 percent as a result of the extensive shutdown of the country to limit the spread of covid-19.

On March 17, the French government decided to shut down most of the country's businesses and impose curfews.

https://www.dn.se/ekonomi/svensk-tillva ... ra-lander/
 
AirWorthy99
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - May 2020

Fri May 29, 2020 1:41 pm

zkojq wrote:
So with seven people recovering overnight, New Zealand is now down to one confirmed case of Corona virus in the whole country.

AirWorthy99 wrote:
May I ask, are the Kiwis willing not to travel abroad either for the foreseeable future, hoping for a vaccine?

Any Kiwi that even dares to step foot outside of NZ, might just get it the moment they arrive to another country. Are you guys willing not to travel abroad anymore, hoping and expecting a vaccine?


You don't seem to have realized that International Tourism has essentially stopped. Ignore New Zealand and Australia's travel ban - it's completely irrelevant at this point. How much international tourism is happening in Japan? How much international tourism is happening in France? How much international tourism is happening in Canada? How much international tourism is happening in Ecuador? The answer to it all is a resounding no - and that's not likely to change in the coming months. How many international tourists is the UK going to get when inbound arrivals will have to quarantine inside a hotel for 14 days on arrival? Again, it's zero.

As above I ask: Who would you rather be: UK with tourism as 10% of GDP with the borders wide open, a very weak lockdown, the virus out of control with hospitals closing to new admissions, tens of thousands dead and a government which has shown incompetence at every step of the way down the road of dealing with the crisis.....Or New Zealand with tourism as 5.8% of GDP, the borders firmly shut to non-residents and very strict quarantining for two weeks for any residents who do arrive back, a very strong and successful lockdown, only eight people in the whole country infected with the virus (none of those in hospital), the economy reopened and a government who has shown a huge amount of competence, leadership and empathy throughout.

As I said above, it's not like there would be tourists coming in if there was no travel ban. The only effect it really had was stopping rich foreigners flying in to hide in their Otago Armageddon bunkers. I'm fine with that.

Eyad89 wrote:
The lockdown or border closing by itself isn't harming the economy, it is the huge drop in the confidence of consumers that stopped spending. I saw a US poll where 70% of responders would still not leave home unless it is needed as long as the risk of infection is present.

The economy will not recover until a vaccine is found or significant herd immunity is achieved; otherwise travel and tourism will stay in depression as long as the virus exists whether governments close their borders or not.

:checkmark: Or the virus is controlled/eliminated. Which doesn't seem likely in some parts of the world. Not without competent governance at least.


What NZ has done is a great achievement. They haven't any land borders, and they are very far apart from most of the world. In any case, this can only work if there is a vaccine down the road. If a vaccine is never done, isolating for ever won't be possible. So lets see what happens.
“It’s easy to confuse ‘what is’ with ‘what ought to be,’ especially when ‘what is’ has worked out in your favor.” Tyrion Lannister
 
DLFREEBIRD
Posts: 1391
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - May 2020

Sun May 31, 2020 4:27 am

no, back to work, it's like a light switch was turned on. i am now working from 7 am until 8 pm at night 7 days a week. i am sure other are also working their butts off as the economy reopens.
 
Waterbomber2
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - May 2020

Sun May 31, 2020 6:29 am

zkojq wrote:
So here in New Zealand everything is back to normal, other than no international travel, more limited domestic flying, no cruise ships and lots of people (myself included) wearing masks when out and about. Today the last remaining COVID19 patient in hospital was discharged. No new cases in five days and 21 people still recovering from the virus. Most importantly random community testing has been going on for weeks and so far noone diagnosed through that method which suggests minor if any community transmission.

That being said, it's not over until it's over. Better not to count too many chickens before they've hatched. ;)

scbriml wrote:
Chemist wrote:
Not sure why that is so hard to understand.
Many are probably the same people who built a fortified safe room in their basement and filled it with provisions and weapons ready for the apocalypse, but can't handle being asked to stay at home for a few weeks to stop the spread of a highly contagious virus.


HA! I hadn't yet noticed that irony before.


New Zealand is one of the only countries that did what it needed to do.

Anarchy is here, as I predicted a couple of months ago.
The riots and looting are not about Floyd anymore, this is what happens when people are out of work and out of money.

This is what happens when you bailout Wall Street instead of Main street.
 
ltbewr
Posts: 15007
Joined: Thu Jan 29, 2004 1:24 pm

Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - May 2020

Sun May 31, 2020 10:58 am

Waterbomber2 wrote:
zkojq wrote:
So here in New Zealand everything is back to normal, other than no international travel, more limited domestic flying, no cruise ships and lots of people (myself included) wearing masks when out and about. Today the last remaining COVID19 patient in hospital was discharged. No new cases in five days and 21 people still recovering from the virus. Most importantly random community testing has been going on for weeks and so far noone diagnosed through that method which suggests minor if any community transmission.
That being said, it's not over until it's over. Better not to count too many chickens before they've hatched. ;)
scbriml wrote:
Many are probably the same people who built a fortified safe room in their basement and filled it with provisions and weapons ready for the apocalypse, but can't handle being asked to stay at home for a few weeks to stop the spread of a highly contagious virus.

HA! I hadn't yet noticed that irony before.

New Zealand is one of the only countries that did what it needed to do.

Anarchy is here, as I predicted a couple of months ago.
The riots and looting are not about Floyd anymore, this is what happens when people are out of work and out of money.
This is what happens when you bailout Wall Street instead of Main street.


I think the Covid-19 pandemic is part of the reasons for the blow up of protests over the death/murder of Mr. Floyd. I bet while the general unemployment rate is 25% or more in the USA, that it is more like 50% in Black communities. Those employed disproportional of 'essential' workers in high Covid-19 infection risk jobs at low pay. A disprortional number of those dead in much of the USA from Covid-19 are non-White, with double in some regions and cities of their proportion of population. Schools not in session. Long existing gang violence among those in their communities. Lack of quality and affordable healthcare. You also have some who have looted who feel they are entitled to take without paying consumer goods from stores not owned by those in their communities, are exploiting them or charging higher prices or too often facing suspicion from store security. Then there is the history of one time statutory and later in reality racial segregation of access to housing, education, repression by police, pandering by politicians, Republican party attempts to limit access to voting and failures to carry out true civil rights reforms going back to the end of the Civil War.
 
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Aaron747
Posts: 11748
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - May 2020

Sun May 31, 2020 3:08 pm

Waterbomber2 wrote:
zkojq wrote:
So here in New Zealand everything is back to normal, other than no international travel, more limited domestic flying, no cruise ships and lots of people (myself included) wearing masks when out and about. Today the last remaining COVID19 patient in hospital was discharged. No new cases in five days and 21 people still recovering from the virus. Most importantly random community testing has been going on for weeks and so far noone diagnosed through that method which suggests minor if any community transmission.

That being said, it's not over until it's over. Better not to count too many chickens before they've hatched. ;)

scbriml wrote:
Many are probably the same people who built a fortified safe room in their basement and filled it with provisions and weapons ready for the apocalypse, but can't handle being asked to stay at home for a few weeks to stop the spread of a highly contagious virus.


HA! I hadn't yet noticed that irony before.


New Zealand is one of the only countries that did what it needed to do.

Anarchy is here, as I predicted a couple of months ago.
The riots and looting are not about Floyd anymore, this is what happens when people are out of work and out of money.

This is what happens when you bailout Wall Street instead of Main street.


Absolutely - the insurance companies are having a field day with COVID. Have a look at some of the billing for testing here:

https://twitter.com/nanogenomic/status/ ... 02721?s=21
If you need someone to blame / throw a rock in the air / you'll hit someone guilty
 
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casinterest
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - May 2020

Sun May 31, 2020 8:42 pm

We are entering into June Tomorrow, and currently Brazil, USA, Russia, India. Peru, Chile, and Mexico are leading in new cases.
The number of cases entering into May was around ~80K new cases a day worldwide.

Going into June we are averaging North of 100K cases a day wit with the last 2 at 125K cases.

Going into May the world wide deaths were averaging 5500-6000 a day.
Going into June worldwide deaths are somwhere around 4000-4500 a day

It would seem increases testing is showing for more cases, with less deaths, however the recent sharp uptick in cases in Brazil , Peru, and India do lead to concern that we will see a sharp spike in deaths in June.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
Where ever you go, there you are.
 
Jalap
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - May 2020

Sun May 31, 2020 9:48 pm

casinterest wrote:
It would seem increases testing is showing for more cases, with less deaths, however the recent sharp uptick in cases in Brazil , Peru, and India do lead to concern that we will see a sharp spike in deaths in June.

This Italian doctor claims the virus is becoming less lethal: https://www.dailysabah.com/world/europe ... octors-say

Yet I think there's better explanations for an increase in cases while deaths drop.

- Many countries are past the 1st wave but still are testing a lot. Not only the severe cases. Hence, much less detected cases will result in death. This, however, explains why less detected cases result in death. Those countries also have far lower numbers of detections. So doesn't explain why total detections per day are still increasing.
- Several of the countries with many new cases aren't know for their open sharing of information. It's very likely that they are nowhere near as honest in their fatality numbers as many European countries, the USA and a few others. Russia with more than 400K cases and less than 5K deaths, nobody can take this serious. Also, 10M tests in Russia, surely nothing more than meaningless propaganda.

Unfortunately, some other countries, like Chile, just got the virus later than others. They stand today where others were 2 months ago. It's a shame that they should have perfectly known what was coming and didn't manage to avoid it. South America and Africa will be the next battlegrounds for the virus.

And what about the Far East? It's very surprising that despite being very densely populated, the numbers in most of those countries still are very very low. 328 confirmed cases in Vietnam so far? It does seem to be on the rise in Indonesia and the Philippines. Yet still, so late? One would have expected that area to get infected earlier than Europe and the USA...

Conclusion is, unfortunately, that there's definitely new waves coming. Out of selfishness, I can only hope that there won't be new waves in couuntries that already have suffered one.
 
Waterbomber2
Posts: 1179
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - May 2020

Sun May 31, 2020 11:11 pm

casinterest wrote:
We are entering into June Tomorrow, and currently Brazil, USA, Russia, India. Peru, Chile, and Mexico are leading in new cases.
The number of cases entering into May was around ~80K new cases a day worldwide.

Going into June we are averaging North of 100K cases a day wit with the last 2 at 125K cases.

Going into May the world wide deaths were averaging 5500-6000 a day.
Going into June worldwide deaths are somwhere around 4000-4500 a day

It would seem increases testing is showing for more cases, with less deaths, however the recent sharp uptick in cases in Brazil , Peru, and India do lead to concern that we will see a sharp spike in deaths in June.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/


The main reason for this is aggressive lockdown measures that were in effect since mid-March.
Those show an effect up to two months later: between the time that fatal patients got infected, went through weeks of early symptoms, deterioration and then death, you are looking at cycles of 1 to 2 months.

The easing of lockdown measures will bring an inevitable second wave.
This is what we're already seeing in the USA. The new infection numbers are not going down.
In fact, by the end of next week, I predict that the U.S. is going to hit 30.000 new daily infections again.

Remember, new infections give us a picture of 5 to 20 days ago, new deaths are the reflection of the situation 15 days to 60 days ago.

The virus has not become less fatal, it is making less deaths today as today's deaths are a reflection of the lockdown period.

Easing lockdown restrictions is very foolish.
It will extend the economic pain and increase fatalities unnecessarily by inducing a second wave.
The problem of the second wave is that we already have lots of infected people walking around, while the first wave started from zero.
Contact tracing is ineffective when you have thousands of new confirmed daily cases, plus all the unconfirmed or asymptomatic ones coming in contact with strangers with schools, offices and public transportation reopening.

Unfortunately, the second wave will fall together with the second phase, ie societal failure.
How much of the 6 Trillions in stimulus reached the population? Most of it seems to have flowed into the financial sector and big business.
While stock markets are rising and business get some oxygen to stay afloat, people are growing hungry and angry. People have lost jobs, unemployment checks are late or too low in amount and there is an increasing sense that governments are panicking about the economy and forcing everyone to return to work in an unsafe environment.
Riots and lootings start in countries worst affected by the pandemic and where social differences are the most pronounced.
Authorities will try to control crowds at first, but once law enforcement inevitably starts getting infected in mass, they will stop reporting for duty.
The societal cohesion will be tested in the coming days and weeks and some societies may fail.

The cost of economic failure and health care is the price governments and people are paying for failure to have a proper plan and execute it.
Lockdown measures that do not completely eradicate the disease can only delay the progression speed.
Easing those measures will increase the progression speed again.

A vaccine may be many years away and its effectiveness may be questionable.
Total eradication through total lockdowns followed by preventive measures are the only competent way forward.
However, lack of discipline and intelligence at the political level is delaying implementation, hence the focus on milder options mainly based on irrational hope.
 
Derico
Posts: 4400
Joined: Mon Dec 20, 1999 9:14 am

Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - May 2020

Sun May 31, 2020 11:53 pm

Jalap wrote:
casinterest wrote:
It would seem increases testing is showing for more cases, with less deaths, however the recent sharp uptick in cases in Brazil , Peru, and India do lead to concern that we will see a sharp spike in deaths in June.


Unfortunately, some other countries, like Chile, just got the virus later than others. They stand today where others were 2 months ago. It's a shame that they should have perfectly known what was coming and didn't manage to avoid it.

.


This is absolutely incorrect. As I was fearing, as soon as news started getting around here Non-Av about the uptick of cases in South America, the general lack of knowledge by posters would begin to show, this is a good example.

I would suggest people here do not talk about the situation in South America, and stick to the regions you do know better, North America, Europe, Australia, Asia, or Russia.
My internet was not shut down, the internet has shut me down
 
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SQ22
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - May 2020

Mon Jun 01, 2020 7:54 am

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