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airhansa
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Europe's coronavirus outbreak may not have originated from Wuhan

Wed May 06, 2020 4:57 pm

A few pieces of research are coming out of Europe in the past few months which suggest that:

  • The coronavirus was detected in patients in France and similar COVID-19 patients in Italy during December 2019
  • The coronavirus strain currently circulating in Europe is markedly different to the one found in China
  • The coronavirus strains in Europe are genetically older than the strains found in Chinese tourists

http://www.livescience.com/coronavirus- ... ember.html
http://www.todayonline.com/world/covid- ... octor-says
http://www.rfi.fr/en/france/20200429-fr ... from-china

Note that scientists in Japan have found that it's the European strain and not the Chinese strain causing most of the cases in Japan, and that most of the cases in Hong Kong and Singapore can be connected to tourists from the West.

I believe that the majority of East Asia has responded well to contain the pandemic. Even China managed to contain the epidemic mostly to the central provinces of China, with very few cases reaching Hong Kong, Macau and Taiwan. It's why the pandemic is primarily a problem with western healthcare and their pandemic response IMO.
 
noviorbis77
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Re: Europe's coronavirus outbreak may not have originated from Wuhan

Wed May 06, 2020 7:53 pm

We cannot believe a single word from China.
 
wingman
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Re: Europe's coronavirus outbreak may not have originated from Wuhan

Wed May 06, 2020 7:58 pm

I like it. The US Military angle didn’t stick so the Central Bot Committee will try pinning the blame on Italy. Va bene!
 
johns624
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Re: Europe's coronavirus outbreak may not have originated from Wuhan

Wed May 06, 2020 8:39 pm

wingman wrote:
I like it. The US Military angle didn’t stick so the Central Bot Committee will try pinning the blame on Italy. Va bene!
There will be plenty of useful idiots that will believe this. The datelines don't add up but people will believe what they want to believe.
 
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einsteinboricua
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Re: Europe's coronavirus outbreak may not have originated from Wuhan

Wed May 06, 2020 9:33 pm

noviorbis77 wrote:
We cannot believe a single word from China.

But they're very transparent.
"You haven't seen a tree until you've seen its shadow from the sky."
 
Newark727
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Re: Europe's coronavirus outbreak may not have originated from Wuhan

Wed May 06, 2020 9:37 pm

While it's reasonable to be suspicious of the CCP, the long asymptomatic period many people have experienced for this virus means that the timelines and directions of each country's outbreak have been rewritten several times already. It's likely that will continue as more research gets compiled.
 
zakuivcustom
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Re: Europe's coronavirus outbreak may not have originated from Wuhan

Wed May 06, 2020 9:41 pm

einsteinboricua wrote:
noviorbis77 wrote:
We cannot believe a single word from China.

But they're very transparent.


Which is why China was idiotic when they decided to shift the blame to the US military. That's what start the current diplomatic battle anyway.

For the OP - such BS. If the European strain is so deadly, why did things not got overwhelmed a lot earlier in Europe? You would have thought a lot more people coming down with pneumonia with a spiked hospitalization rate similar to Wuhan would happen.
 
Derico
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Re: Europe's coronavirus outbreak may not have originated from Wuhan

Wed May 06, 2020 11:52 pm

I would use a line of rugby union and just say: it's the Northern Hemisphere's fault, as usual!
My internet was not shut down, the internet has shut me down
 
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Aaron747
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Re: Europe's coronavirus outbreak may not have originated from Wuhan

Thu May 07, 2020 1:26 am

johns624 wrote:
wingman wrote:
I like it. The US Military angle didn’t stick so the Central Bot Committee will try pinning the blame on Italy. Va bene!
There will be plenty of useful idiots that will believe this. The datelines don't add up but people will believe what they want to believe.


I assure you Japanese researchers have zero motivation to ‘help’ China in any way.
If you need someone to blame / throw a rock in the air / you'll hit someone guilty
 
blueflyer
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Re: Europe's coronavirus outbreak may not have originated from Wuhan

Thu May 07, 2020 1:34 am

Actually, scientists in France have more questions than answers so far on how the virus reached the country. It's been reported by various French news sources not known for peddling conspiracy theories such as RFI (Radio France International - France's version of Voice of America - linked to by the OP), news radio Europe 1, newspaper Le Monde, etc.

The two main questions are, did Covid-19 arrive in France much earlier than recognized thus far, and did it come from China?

Officially, the first three cases of Covid-19 in France were identified on January 24, in two Chinese tourists and a French citizen having recently returned from Wuhan.

The Institut Pasteur (France's version of the National Institutes of Health) did uncover evidence that there were at least two strains of the virus circulating in France at the beginning of the crisis. One from China/Italy, and the other of unknown origin thus far. Patients affected by the second strain tended to have little to no symptoms. Scientists are not saying the second strain did not come from China or Italy, as it is possible that it did and mutated somewhere en route, but they have no evidence of its origin yet. The second strain has now been virtually eliminated.
https://www.thelocal.fr/20200505/does-f ... oronavirus

A patient may have been positive with the second strain as early as December 27 according to the head of intensive care units for a group of hospitals. The patient tested positive for respiratory issues at the time however the tests were not calibrated to identify corona infections. It is only in subsequent reviews of diagnostic test results that the case was identified. The patient had not traveled to China or been in contact with anyone who had.
https://www.bfmtv.com/sante/coronavirus ... 06757.html

It is possible the virus was brought to France as early as October by athletes returning from the World Military Games in Wuhan. Several French participants reported respiratory symptoms that, in hindsight, indicate they may have been infected with the corona virus during the games. Tests were not performed at the time and so it cannot be determined what strain of the corona virus it was, or even whether they were infected.
https://www.europe1.fr/sport/des-athlet ... er-3966772
https://www.lemonde.fr/societe/article/ ... _3224.html

Chinese news media did jump on the conclusions of the Institut Pasteur, of course, reporting erroneously that "the" strain of the virus did not come directly from China or Italy, as if there was only one strain affecting France.
http://www.china.org.cn/world/2020-05/0 ... 005325.htm
http://www.xinhuanet.com/english/2020-0 ... 018917.htm
 
Kiwirob
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Re: Europe's coronavirus outbreak may not have originated from Wuhan

Thu May 07, 2020 4:19 am

noviorbis77 wrote:
We cannot believe a single word from China.


This research hasn't come from China, just like the strain of Covid-19 in the US.
 
dobilan
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Re: Europe's coronavirus outbreak may not have originated from Wuhan

Thu May 07, 2020 4:39 am

Oh yeah..let's whitewash China. Had the virus been in Europe earlier than China, we should have had the outbreak in Europe earlier than China.
 
Kiwirob
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Re: Europe's coronavirus outbreak may not have originated from Wuhan

Thu May 07, 2020 5:34 am

dobilan wrote:
Oh yeah..let's whitewash China. Had the virus been in Europe earlier than China, we should have had the outbreak in Europe earlier than China.


Have you read any of the news articles???
 
Olddog
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Re: Europe's coronavirus outbreak may not have originated from Wuhan

Thu May 07, 2020 6:11 am

Far from being an absolution for China, it seems that the virus was spreading in Wuhan as early as October 2019 and a lot of athletes got sick coming back from the World Military Games in Wuhan.
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lowwkjax
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Re: Europe's coronavirus outbreak may not have originated from Wuhan

Thu May 07, 2020 6:19 am

This virus has been around for way longer than we know, but no one gave a sh**. Symptoms and/or deaths were counted as flu or some other lung disease and that’s it. Suddenly they started testing, found cases (“omg new disease watch out”), ramped up testing (“exponential growth”), and when they found the already 100,000 cases countrywide and their tests are now only finding the new cases (“curve is flattened”).
(cause virus spreads way slower than anticipated, e.g. household of 4, only 2 infected, but at the same time it’s described as one person in a plane coughs and the whole airport is sick)

We lived and died perfectly fine the second half of 2019, with this virus around, and now all the media attention and shock pictures drive us nuts.

Source: my opinion.
 
tommy1808
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Re: Europe's coronavirus outbreak may not have originated from Wuhan

Thu May 07, 2020 6:24 am

Kiwirob wrote:
dobilan wrote:
Oh yeah..let's whitewash China. Had the virus been in Europe earlier than China, we should have had the outbreak in Europe earlier than China.


Have you read any of the news articles???


my guess? Of course not.....

noviorbis77 wrote:
We cannot believe a single word from China.


The chinese Pasteur Institute in Paris, China?

best regards
Thomas
Well, there is prophecy in the bible after all: 2 Timothy 3:1-6
 
dobilan
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Re: Europe's coronavirus outbreak may not have originated from Wuhan

Thu May 07, 2020 6:27 am

Kiwirob wrote:
dobilan wrote:
Oh yeah..let's whitewash China. Had the virus been in Europe earlier than China, we should have had the outbreak in Europe earlier than China.


Have you read any of the news articles???


I've read all kind of stuff these days. But I cannot see how could have been the virus dormant for a few months in Europe only to savagedly erupt in Italy/Spain right after the epidemic in Wuhan.
Either the "early virus in EU/USA" theory is just a China whitewash attempt or the current crisis is an unbelievable mad artificial construct/social engineering.
Only one is plausible at a time.I'm rather inclined to the first one.
 
tommy1808
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Re: Europe's coronavirus outbreak may not have originated from Wuhan

Thu May 07, 2020 6:45 am

dobilan wrote:
Kiwirob wrote:
dobilan wrote:
Oh yeah..let's whitewash China. Had the virus been in Europe earlier than China, we should have had the outbreak in Europe earlier than China.


Have you read any of the news articles???


I've read all kind of stuff these days. But I cannot see how could have been the virus dormant for a few months in Europe only to savagedly erupt in Italy/Spain right after the epidemic in Wuhan.
Either the "early virus in EU/USA" theory is just a China whitewash attempt or the current crisis is an unbelievable mad artificial construct/social engineering.
Only one is plausible at a time.I'm rather inclined to the first one.


So, you are saying the French, government, Pasteur institute is making up shit?

But you are right, those scientists have awfully Chinese sounding names ....

authors wrote:
Fabiana Gámbaro, Sylvie Behillil, Artem Baidaliuk, Flora Donati, Mélanie Albert, Andreea Alexandru
Maud Vanpeene, Méline Bizard, Angela Brisebarre, Marion Barbet, Fawzi Derrar, Sylvie van der Werf, Vincent Enouf and Etienne Simon-Loriere


Best regards
Thomas
Well, there is prophecy in the bible after all: 2 Timothy 3:1-6
 
Olddog
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Re: Europe's coronavirus outbreak may not have originated from Wuhan

Thu May 07, 2020 6:58 am

The explanation could be simpler. It could be that the virus was spreading slowly in Wuhan in the beginning. When it contaminated the athletes, it was healthy people that got sick but not deadly. Time going the virus found weaker people and the rest is known.

Look at the Charles-De-Gaulle sailors:1100 sailors were tested positive to covid19 and to my knowledge, zero casualties and only 2 still in hospital.
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tommy1808
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Re: Europe's coronavirus outbreak may not have originated from Wuhan

Thu May 07, 2020 7:12 am

Olddog wrote:
The explanation could be simpler. It could be that the virus was spreading slowly in Wuhan in the beginning. When it contaminated the athletes, it was healthy people that got sick but not deadly. Time going the virus found weaker people and the rest is known..


reasonable position to have given that similar viruses are found in Chinese bats, but it would still mean that China actually was the first to notice the new Virus and the first to make that public.

Hard to argue "They lacked candor" when one or more countries failed to detect the virus at all, or failed to disclose it.

best regards
Thomas
Well, there is prophecy in the bible after all: 2 Timothy 3:1-6
 
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stl07
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Re: Europe's coronavirus outbreak may not have originated from Wuhan

Thu May 07, 2020 7:17 am

lowwkjax wrote:

Source: my opinion.

And this mindset is why my local government was forced to enact a stay at home order
Instead of typing in "mods", consider using the report function.
Love how every "travel blogger" says they will never fly AA/Ethihad again and then says it again and again on subsequent flights.
 
M564038
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Re: Europe's coronavirus outbreak may not have originated from Wuhan

Thu May 07, 2020 9:04 am

And this would be a reasonable opinion had it not been for the refrigitated containers and massgraves needed to cope with the sheer amount of dead people in otherwise civilized, rich western cities.

Those who reacted early into the spread , also killed off the seasonal
flu completely, and reduced a number of other normal causes of death, and thus ended up with the same number of deaths as normal for this time of year. (Denmark, Norway etc.)

Those who reacted later has seen huge peaks in deaths.

Those societies with high trust-levels between the government and the populace, had needed less strict regulations, less policing and force, and thus are in way better shape the recover their economies.


lowwkjax wrote:
This virus has been around for way longer than we know, but no one gave a sh**. Symptoms and/or deaths were counted as flu or some other lung disease and that’s it. Suddenly they started testing, found cases (“omg new disease watch out”), ramped up testing (“exponential growth”), and when they found the already 100,000 cases countrywide and their tests are now only finding the new cases (“curve is flattened”).
(cause virus spreads way slower than anticipated, e.g. household of 4, only 2 infected, but at the same time it’s described as one person in a plane coughs and the whole airport is sick)

We lived and died perfectly fine the second half of 2019, with this virus around, and now all the media attention and shock pictures drive us nuts.

Source: my opinion.
 
marcelh
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Re: Europe's coronavirus outbreak may not have originated from Wuhan

Thu May 07, 2020 10:02 am

blueflyer wrote:
Actually, scientists in France have more questions than answers so far on how the virus reached the country. It's been reported by various French news sources not known for peddling conspiracy theories such as RFI (Radio France International - France's version of Voice of America - linked to by the OP), news radio Europe 1, newspaper Le Monde, etc.

The two main questions are, did Covid-19 arrive in France much earlier than recognized thus far, and did it come from China?

Officially, the first three cases of Covid-19 in France were identified on January 24, in two Chinese tourists and a French citizen having recently returned from Wuhan.

The Institut Pasteur (France's version of the National Institutes of Health) did uncover evidence that there were at least two strains of the virus circulating in France at the beginning of the crisis. One from China/Italy, and the other of unknown origin thus far. Patients affected by the second strain tended to have little to no symptoms. Scientists are not saying the second strain did not come from China or Italy, as it is possible that it did and mutated somewhere en route, but they have no evidence of its origin yet. The second strain has now been virtually eliminated.
https://www.thelocal.fr/20200505/does-f ... oronavirus

A patient may have been positive with the second strain as early as December 27 according to the head of intensive care units for a group of hospitals. The patient tested positive for respiratory issues at the time however the tests were not calibrated to identify corona infections. It is only in subsequent reviews of diagnostic test results that the case was identified. The patient had not traveled to China or been in contact with anyone who had.
https://www.bfmtv.com/sante/coronavirus ... 06757.html

It is possible the virus was brought to France as early as October by athletes returning from the World Military Games in Wuhan. Several French participants reported respiratory symptoms that, in hindsight, indicate they may have been infected with the corona virus during the games. Tests were not performed at the time and so it cannot be determined what strain of the corona virus it was, or even whether they were infected.
https://www.europe1.fr/sport/des-athlet ... er-3966772
https://www.lemonde.fr/societe/article/ ... _3224.html

Chinese news media did jump on the conclusions of the Institut Pasteur, of course, reporting erroneously that "the" strain of the virus did not come directly from China or Italy, as if there was only one strain affecting France.
http://www.china.org.cn/world/2020-05/0 ... 005325.htm
http://www.xinhuanet.com/english/2020-0 ... 018917.htm


At least someone is posting a meaningful and balanced piece :bigthumbsup:
 
tommy1808
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Re: Europe's coronavirus outbreak may not have originated from Wuhan

Thu May 07, 2020 10:26 am

M564038 wrote:
Those societies with high trust-levels between the government and the populace, had needed less strict regulations, less policing and force, and thus are in way better shape the recover their economies.


lowwkjax wrote:
This virus has been around for way longer than we know, but no one gave a sh**. Symptoms and/or deaths were counted as flu or some other lung disease and that’s it. Suddenly they started testing, found cases (“omg new disease watch out”), ramped up testing (“exponential growth”), and when they found the already 100,000 cases countrywide and their tests are now only finding the new cases (“curve is flattened”).
(cause virus spreads way slower than anticipated, e.g. household of 4, only 2 infected, but at the same time it’s described as one person in a plane coughs and the whole airport is sick)

We lived and died perfectly fine the second half of 2019, with this virus around, and now all the media attention and shock pictures drive us nuts.

Source: my opinion.


of course public confidence is low in places when states have to report that the federal government is stealing their stuff and putting it under armed guard to keep federal agents from taking it.

The FT has added excess death to their reporting: https://www.ft.com/content/a26fbf7e-48f ... 5839e06441

best regards
Thomas
Well, there is prophecy in the bible after all: 2 Timothy 3:1-6
 
dtw2hyd
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Re: Europe's coronavirus outbreak may not have originated from Wuhan

Thu May 07, 2020 10:28 am

That means only one thing, China Wuhan CCP virus started much before than originally thought. French team estimated this originated in October '19 in China, now may be even sooner.
All posts are just opinions.
 
tommy1808
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Re: Europe's coronavirus outbreak may not have originated from Wuhan

Thu May 07, 2020 10:45 am

dtw2hyd wrote:
That means only one thing, China Wuhan CCP virus started much before than originally thought. French team estimated this originated in October '19 in China, now may be even sooner.


how does it "only" mean that? It does automatically also mean that France, and if it was in France it may have been elsewhere as well, rather unlikely that it wasn´t, didn´t detect it, and no one detected it but the Chinese for about half a year. Not France, not Germany, not the USA, nor anyone else......

So.... apparently it can take months to figure that out, and that would kinda kill all angle for criticism unless you can demonstrate China had cases last summer. And that would be something no one even made up yet.

Its especially quaint when some places, and that is plenty of places not code for the US, dismissed the virus as hoax and not dangerous, as an official position, when people already where on ventilators.

best regards
Thomas
Well, there is prophecy in the bible after all: 2 Timothy 3:1-6
 
dtw2hyd
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Re: Europe's coronavirus outbreak may not have originated from Wuhan

Thu May 07, 2020 11:28 am

tommy1808 wrote:
It does automatically also mean that France, and if it was in France it may have been elsewhere as well, rather unlikely that it wasn´t, didn´t detect it, and no one detected it but the Chinese for about half a year. Not France, not Germany, not the USA, nor anyone else......

best regards
Thomas


COVID-19 is the only high quality Chinese product. No one need to detect it, symptoms or no symptoms, bodies will pile up. China is the first country with noticeable body count. It is also the only country capable of making bodies disappear. Not possible to make bodies disappear in Italy, France, Germany, USA or anywhere else.
All posts are just opinions.
 
tommy1808
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Re: Europe's coronavirus outbreak may not have originated from Wuhan

Thu May 07, 2020 12:42 pm

dtw2hyd wrote:
tommy1808 wrote:
It does automatically also mean that France, and if it was in France it may have been elsewhere as well, rather unlikely that it wasn´t, didn´t detect it, and no one detected it but the Chinese for about half a year. Not France, not Germany, not the USA, nor anyone else......

best regards
Thomas


COVID-19 is the only high quality Chinese product. No one need to detect it, symptoms or no symptoms, bodies will pile up. China is the first country with noticeable body count. It is also the only country capable of making bodies disappear. Not possible to make bodies disappear in Italy, France, Germany, USA or anywhere else.


Since the virus is almost as contagious as conspiracy theories about it are, that is essentially a non-starter. You can hide bodies, but you can't hide factories being closed, since at least some supply chain managers all over our just-in-time production world would notice that within a few days. Since we know what sort of draconian measures are needed to contain that thing, pretty much even by chinese standards, suppressing an outbreak without anyone noticing is unlikely to say the least. Even rather small reductions in local productivity or mobility would show up in pollution tracking from space.

Now, of course there is a chance that just no one went looking really hard to find indicators for an outbreak that was kept secret. But given how many governments would love to blame someone to distract from their own failings, I would be very surprised if no significant amount of analyst time has been spend on it already, and as far as we know nothing was found so far.

It would also make one wonder why they let the whistleblower doctor go instead of disappearing him, as they, according to you, must have done that with everyone before as well. Or why he even got the chance to share his concerns with colleagues if the chinese authorities already knew what was afoot? Should they not have taken his patients away (and disappear them too), and give him an excuse he would buy without thinking "SARS outbreak", even if he wasn't asked to accompany his patients?

Maybe you want to give a consistent narrative a try, and then we see if that rhymes with everything we do know?

Best regards
Thomas
Well, there is prophecy in the bible after all: 2 Timothy 3:1-6
 
dtw2hyd
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Re: Europe's coronavirus outbreak may not have originated from Wuhan

Thu May 07, 2020 1:16 pm

tommy1808 wrote:
Since the virus is almost as contagious as conspiracy theories about it are, that is essentially a non-starter. You can hide bodies, but you can't hide factories being closed, since at least some supply chain managers all over our just-in-time production world would notice that within a few days. Since we know what sort of draconian measures are needed to contain that thing, pretty much even by chinese standards, suppressing an outbreak without anyone noticing is unlikely to say the least. Even rather small reductions in local productivity or mobility would show up in pollution tracking from space.

Now, of course there is a chance that just no one went looking really hard to find indicators for an outbreak that was kept secret. But given how many governments would love to blame someone to distract from their own failings, I would be very surprised if no significant amount of analyst time has been spend on it already, and as far as we know nothing was found so far.

It would also make one wonder why they let the whistleblower doctor go instead of disappearing him, as they, according to you, must have done that with everyone before as well. Or why he even got the chance to share his concerns with colleagues if the chinese authorities already knew what was afoot? Should they not have taken his patients away (and disappear them too), and give him an excuse he would buy without thinking "SARS outbreak", even if he wasn't asked to accompany his patients?

Maybe you want to give a consistent narrative a try, and then we see if that rhymes with everything we do know?

Best regards
Thomas


So why this new theory now? Sounds like CCP social engineering team want to make Europe look bad, after blaming US didn't trend. Looks like CCP is trying to drive a wedge between Europe and USA (or) between East and West.

China was caught off-guard initially, once they got control on body count(not virus) and essential supplies, they are back to social engineering.

About supply chain managers from rest of the world: They were enjoying virtual divorces and parallel lives paid by corporations. COVID-19 pulled them back into forced wedlock.
Never thought about Plan B, no clue how China manipulated their employers or countries, pretty much useless.

Not sure what they were doing during all those corporate visits and long term stays.
All posts are just opinions.
 
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einsteinboricua
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Re: Europe's coronavirus outbreak may not have originated from Wuhan

Thu May 07, 2020 1:25 pm

tommy1808 wrote:
dobilan wrote:

I've read all kind of stuff these days. But I cannot see how could have been the virus dormant for a few months in Europe only to savagedly erupt in Italy/Spain right after the epidemic in Wuhan.
Either the "early virus in EU/USA" theory is just a China whitewash attempt or the current crisis is an unbelievable mad artificial construct/social engineering.
Only one is plausible at a time.I'm rather inclined to the first one.


So, you are saying the French, government, Pasteur institute is making up shit?

I wouldn't necessarily disregard what dobilan is saying since it makes a lot of sense. If the virus was circulating in Europe before Wuhan, how come it was only after Wuhan, South Korea, and Iran cases spiked that Europe then had its hot spots? Something doesn't add up. Now you could say that the strain affecting Europe is different from the one in Wuhan, and THAT I would believe; all it needed was to merge with the Wuhan strain so that it became much more virulent, but that would have been a mutation of the virus (a brand new strain) rather than saying that the virus originated in Europe.

If the virus originated in Europe, then it was a low virulent strain which was made more virulent with the arrival of the Wuhan strain. I wouldn't necessarily buy the argument that Europe's strain made it to Wuhan, mutated, and then became the disease we know today...there would be many similarities in both regions, and according to the OP's information, scientists have determined that they're both very different.
"You haven't seen a tree until you've seen its shadow from the sky."
 
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casinterest
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Re: Europe's coronavirus outbreak may not have originated from Wuhan

Thu May 07, 2020 1:30 pm

einsteinboricua wrote:
tommy1808 wrote:
dobilan wrote:

I've read all kind of stuff these days. But I cannot see how could have been the virus dormant for a few months in Europe only to savagedly erupt in Italy/Spain right after the epidemic in Wuhan.
Either the "early virus in EU/USA" theory is just a China whitewash attempt or the current crisis is an unbelievable mad artificial construct/social engineering.
Only one is plausible at a time.I'm rather inclined to the first one.


So, you are saying the French, government, Pasteur institute is making up shit?

I wouldn't necessarily disregard what dobilan is saying since it makes a lot of sense. If the virus was circulating in Europe before Wuhan, how come it was only after Wuhan, South Korea, and Iran cases spiked that Europe then had its hot spots? Something doesn't add up. Now you could say that the strain affecting Europe is different from the one in Wuhan, and THAT I would believe; all it needed was to merge with the Wuhan strain so that it became much more virulent, but that would have been a mutation of the virus (a brand new strain) rather than saying that the virus originated in Europe.

If the virus originated in Europe, then it was a low virulent strain which was made more virulent with the arrival of the Wuhan strain. I wouldn't necessarily buy the argument that Europe's strain made it to Wuhan, mutated, and then became the disease we know today...there would be many similarities in both regions, and according to the OP's information, scientists have determined that they're both very different.



What it all means is that there is still a lot of investigations to do. The Europe story doesn't quite add up as you stated, but it is interesting that these other mysterious deaths were occurring.
Where ever you go, there you are.
 
lowwkjax
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Re: Europe's coronavirus outbreak may not have originated from Wuhan

Thu May 07, 2020 2:21 pm

einsteinboricua wrote:
how come it was only after Wuhan, South Korea, and Iran cases spiked that Europe then had its hot spots? Something doesn't add up.


It’s simple - because it’s been around for a long time and only started being noticed when countries started testing for it. People have died of it before and no one cared because no one knew it was a new disease. Then China were the first to test for a new disease, then everyone else started testing and initially found a lot of infections. And since there were a lot of possible hits, the rising number of tests lead to a high number of positive tests which was called “exponential growth”. At one point, the top was reached, most actual infections were found and therefore the tests started showing less and less positive results. We called that “we’ve managed to flatten the curve”.

Again, just my opinion, but would explain a lot.

AND - no, I’m not an idiot, I keep distance, I wear a mask, I don’t threaten other people, and I will do so as long as it’s nothing can be proven. But I do have my own thoughts and ideas.
 
tommy1808
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Re: Europe's coronavirus outbreak may not have originated from Wuhan

Thu May 07, 2020 2:44 pm

lowwkjax wrote:
einsteinboricua wrote:
how come it was only after Wuhan, South Korea, and Iran cases spiked that Europe then had its hot spots? Something doesn't add up.


It’s simple - because it’s been around for a long time and only started being noticed when countries started testing for it. People have died of it before and no one cared because no one knew it was a new disease.


If that was the case, there a) wouldn't be excess death and b) as fast as this spreads everyone would have had it a long time ago. With 30% growth per day patient zero to everyone (or rather herd immunity level) takes less than 3 month and c) we would have dug up antibodies in old blood samples a long long time ago, which after all is how we found this.

So either you are wrong, or this has mutated to where our body can develop immunity about as effective as against HIV.

Best regards
Thomas
Well, there is prophecy in the bible after all: 2 Timothy 3:1-6
 
tommy1808
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Re: Europe's coronavirus outbreak may not have originated from Wuhan

Thu May 07, 2020 2:50 pm

dtw2hyd wrote:
tommy1808 wrote:
Since the virus is almost as contagious as conspiracy theories about it are, that is essentially a non-starter. You can hide bodies, but you can't hide factories being closed, since at least some supply chain managers all over our just-in-time production world would notice that within a few days. Since we know what sort of draconian measures are needed to contain that thing, pretty much even by chinese standards, suppressing an outbreak without anyone noticing is unlikely to say the least. Even rather small reductions in local productivity or mobility would show up in pollution tracking from space.

Now, of course there is a chance that just no one went looking really hard to find indicators for an outbreak that was kept secret. But given how many governments would love to blame someone to distract from their own failings, I would be very surprised if no significant amount of analyst time has been spend on it already, and as far as we know nothing was found so far.

It would also make one wonder why they let the whistleblower doctor go instead of disappearing him, as they, according to you, must have done that with everyone before as well. Or why he even got the chance to share his concerns with colleagues if the chinese authorities already knew what was afoot? Should they not have taken his patients away (and disappear them too), and give him an excuse he would buy without thinking "SARS outbreak", even if he wasn't asked to accompany his patients?

Maybe you want to give a consistent narrative a try, and then we see if that rhymes with everything we do know?

Best regards
Thomas


So why this new theory now?


Is that a serious question? A theory has to explain all existing data it could in principle explain. That's why new data often leads to new ideas being explored and tested, and, if the data is correct, the old theory having been falsified.

It's like asking "why suddenly this theory about dark energy" ... well, because we only got data showing the accelerating expansion the universe about 20 years ago.

Or "why this new electromagnetism when we already have magnetism and electricity", well, because we got data showing that both is essentially one and the same.

In short the answer is "new data".

Best regards
Thomas
Well, there is prophecy in the bible after all: 2 Timothy 3:1-6
 
dtw2hyd
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Re: Europe's coronavirus outbreak may not have originated from Wuhan

Thu May 07, 2020 3:13 pm

tommy1808 wrote:
Is that a serious question? A theory has to explain all existing data it could in principle explain. That's why new data often leads to new ideas being explored and tested, and, if the data is correct, the old theory having been falsified.

Best regards
Thomas


Yes it is a serious question. Where is the scientific evidence it is not originated from China, CCP, XI, Wuhan,P4, wet markets, Bats and Pangolins.

Stitching up few loosely related(could be planted) articles for social engineering with a "may" is not scientific proof. It doesn't disprove any of the previous theories. It is just another theory.
All posts are just opinions.
 
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Francoflier
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Re: Europe's coronavirus outbreak may not have originated from Wuhan

Thu May 07, 2020 3:16 pm

The studies can only rely on Chinese official data regarding the virus, and you trust those at your own risk.
Given China's initial management of the disease and their obvious attempts to try and keep it under wraps at first, it's more than just a possibility that this thing was circulating there well before November.

Whereas it's true that many cases were only discovered in the West when countries started getting serious about testing, the spikes above historical average in number of deaths do not lie. In Europe, they are firmly inside of February and March, well after that experienced in China.

The virus has different strains, but it does not mutate all that much. In fact it has been estimated that it might mutate slower than the seasonal influenza virus (good news for the effectiveness of a future vaccine BTW). It is entirely possible that the virus was imported as a weaker strain from China late last year, and only mutated into something nastier in Europe itself later. This could explain the higher mortality rate there and subsequently on the East Coast US while those from China and Asia remained relatively low, and why it was initially circulating stealthily.

Let's not forget that China is currently on a massive and concerted domestic and international propaganda effort to try and clear itself in this virus sh#tshow...
I'll do my own airline. With Blackjack. And hookers. In fact, forget the airline.
 
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Francoflier
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Re: Europe's coronavirus outbreak may not have originated from Wuhan

Thu May 07, 2020 3:23 pm

dtw2hyd wrote:
tommy1808 wrote:
Is that a serious question? A theory has to explain all existing data it could in principle explain. That's why new data often leads to new ideas being explored and tested, and, if the data is correct, the old theory having been falsified.

Best regards
Thomas


Yes it is a serious question. Where is the scientific evidence it is not originated from China, CCP, XI, Wuhan,P4, wet markets, Bats and Pangolins.

Stitching up few loosely related(could be planted) articles for social engineering with a "may" is not scientific proof. It doesn't disprove any of the previous theories. It is just another theory.


There is no evidence.

Apart from clickbait-y titles, the articles posted by the OP clearly mention that there is no way to tell that it appeared in Europe first, especially when we don't even know when it first appeared in China, and we will likely never know...
All it says is that the virus was circulating in Europe well before they started seriously looking for it.
I'll do my own airline. With Blackjack. And hookers. In fact, forget the airline.
 
tommy1808
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Re: Europe's coronavirus outbreak may not have originated from Wuhan

Thu May 07, 2020 3:36 pm

dtw2hyd wrote:
tommy1808 wrote:
Is that a serious question? A theory has to explain all existing data it could in principle explain. That's why new data often leads to new ideas being explored and tested, and, if the data is correct, the old theory having been falsified.

Best regards
Thomas


Yes it is a serious question. Where is the scientific evidence it is not originated from China, CCP, XI, Wuhan,P4, wet markets, Bats and Pangolins.


There never was any evidence that the CCP made it, that it escaped from a lab, that Xi had it made or solid evidence that it even came from a wet market, and hence it needs no evidence disproving any of it.

What we do have evidence for it that it likely came from one of those, as they have closely related corona viruses, but there could very well have been some pet as an intermediate host we don't know about. Probably not cats or dogs, as they don't seem to get infections, or even really sick in the case of dogs.

Stitching up few loosely related(could be planted) articles for social engineering with a "may" is not scientific proof. It doesn't disprove any of the previous theories. It is just another theory.


Short of methological errors or unidentified contamination of samples or equipment there is no "may" if the virus or antibodies against it are found in samples more than half a year old. Maybe it started of hard to contract as MERS, also a Corona Virus, and mutated to this super effective spreader in humans. After all, today's corona virus would have infected almost everyone on the planet in under 3 month.

Best regards
Thomas
Well, there is prophecy in the bible after all: 2 Timothy 3:1-6
 
dtw2hyd
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Re: Europe's coronavirus outbreak may not have originated from Wuhan

Thu May 07, 2020 3:53 pm

tommy1808 wrote:
Short of methological errors or unidentified contamination of samples or equipment there is no "may" if the virus or antibodies against it are found in samples more than half a year old.

Best regards
Thomas


If free societies are going back and checking samples six months or a year old and at the same time China is destroying any and all available evidence, sure one can build up fake theories and chronology.
All posts are just opinions.
 
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einsteinboricua
Posts: 8260
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Re: Europe's coronavirus outbreak may not have originated from Wuhan

Thu May 07, 2020 5:01 pm

lowwkjax wrote:
People have died of it before and no one cared because no one knew it was a new disease. Then China were the first to test for a new disease, then everyone else started testing and initially found a lot of infections. And since there were a lot of possible hits, the rising number of tests lead to a high number of positive tests which was called “exponential growth”. At one point, the top was reached, most actual infections were found and therefore the tests started showing less and less positive results. We called that “we’ve managed to flatten the curve”.

It makes sense for undiagnosed cases. Does not make sense for so many deaths. I REALLY doubt that hundreds of Italians and Spaniards were dying every day and they chalked it up to other things. A few dozen folks being misdiagnosed with flu and dying because of covid? Yes. Hundreds? Per day? Nope...that doesn't add up.

lowwkjax wrote:
Again, just my opinion, but would explain a lot.

AND - no, I’m not an idiot, I keep distance, I wear a mask, I don’t threaten other people, and I will do so as long as it’s nothing can be proven. But I do have my own thoughts and ideas.

You're entitled to opinions, ideas, and thoughts; you're not entitled to universal acceptance of them as fact unless you're a subject matter expert in the area or they can be proven.
"You haven't seen a tree until you've seen its shadow from the sky."
 
DLFREEBIRD
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Re: Europe's coronavirus outbreak may not have originated from Wuhan

Thu May 07, 2020 6:23 pm

M564038 wrote:
And this would be a reasonable opinion had it not been for the refrigitated containers and massgraves needed to cope with the sheer amount of dead people in otherwise civilized, rich western cities.

Those who reacted early into the spread , also killed off the seasonal
flu completely, and reduced a number of other normal causes of death, and thus ended up with the same number of deaths as normal for this time of year. (Denmark, Norway etc.)

Those who reacted later has seen huge peaks in deaths.

Those societies with high trust-levels between the government and the populace, had needed less strict regulations, less policing and force, and thus are in way better shape the recover their economies.


lowwkjax wrote:
This virus has been around for way longer than we know, but no one gave a sh**. Symptoms and/or deaths were counted as flu or some other lung disease and that’s it. Suddenly they started testing, found cases (“omg new disease watch out”), ramped up testing (“exponential growth”), and when they found the already 100,000 cases countrywide and their tests are now only finding the new cases (“curve is flattened”).
(cause virus spreads way slower than anticipated, e.g. household of 4, only 2 infected, but at the same time it’s described as one person in a plane coughs and the whole airport is sick)

We lived and died perfectly fine the second half of 2019, with this virus around, and now all the media attention and shock pictures drive us nuts.

Source: my opinion.


you are both making lots of assumptions. looks like I'm going to have to put on my wading boots to read more of your posts.
 
DLFREEBIRD
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Re: Europe's coronavirus outbreak may not have originated from Wuhan

Thu May 07, 2020 6:31 pm

einsteinboricua wrote:
tommy1808 wrote:
dobilan wrote:

I've read all kind of stuff these days. But I cannot see how could have been the virus dormant for a few months in Europe only to savagedly erupt in Italy/Spain right after the epidemic in Wuhan.
Either the "early virus in EU/USA" theory is just a China whitewash attempt or the current crisis is an unbelievable mad artificial construct/social engineering.
Only one is plausible at a time.I'm rather inclined to the first one.


So, you are saying the French, government, Pasteur institute is making up shit?

I wouldn't necessarily disregard what dobilan is saying since it makes a lot of sense. If the virus was circulating in Europe before Wuhan, how come it was only after Wuhan, South Korea, and Iran cases spiked that Europe then had its hot spots? Something doesn't add up. Now you could say that the strain affecting Europe is different from the one in Wuhan, and THAT I would believe; all it needed was to merge with the Wuhan strain so that it became much more virulent, but that would have been a mutation of the virus (a brand new strain) rather than saying that the virus originated in Europe.

If the virus originated in Europe, then it was a low virulent strain which was made more virulent with the arrival of the Wuhan strain. I wouldn't necessarily buy the argument that Europe's strain made it to Wuhan, mutated, and then became the disease we know today...there would be many similarities in both regions, and according to the OP's information, scientists have determined that they're both very different.


while virus mutate, I have not heard of different strains mutating together, I find that highly unlikely since it takes months for a strain to mutate just a little. I'm sure scientists would of figured that out by now.
 
 
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DocLightning
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Re: Europe's coronavirus outbreak may not have originated from Wuhan

Fri May 08, 2020 10:06 pm

The Pasteur article is here: https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101 ... 576v2.full

Genetic clock analytics put the emergence of SARS-CoV-2 from pangolins (or wherever it came from) in late October and in bats sometime between 1940 and 2000, probably 1980-2000. So there was probably some low-level chain transmission for over a month before enough took hold to cause a cluster of symptomatic cases.
-Doc Lightning-

"The sky calls to us. If we do not destroy ourselves, we will one day venture to the stars."
-Carl Sagan
 
LCDFlight
Posts: 392
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Re: Europe's coronavirus outbreak may not have originated from Wuhan

Sat May 09, 2020 3:01 am

dtw2hyd wrote:
tommy1808 wrote:
It does automatically also mean that France, and if it was in France it may have been elsewhere as well, rather unlikely that it wasn´t, didn´t detect it, and no one detected it but the Chinese for about half a year. Not France, not Germany, not the USA, nor anyone else......

best regards
Thomas


COVID-19 is the only high quality Chinese product. No one need to detect it, symptoms or no symptoms, bodies will pile up. China is the first country with noticeable body count. It is also the only country capable of making bodies disappear. Not possible to make bodies disappear in Italy, France, Germany, USA or anywhere else.


LOL.

Too few people are placing the blame where it really belongs. The spooky and untrustworthy behaviors of bats!

At least that's my Norm Macdonald impression for you.
 
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DocLightning
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Re: Europe's coronavirus outbreak may not have originated from Wuhan

Sat May 09, 2020 4:14 am

lowwkjax wrote:
einsteinboricua wrote:
It’s simple - because it’s been around for a long time and only started being noticed when countries started testing for it. People have died of it before and no one cared because no one knew it was a new disease. Then China were the first to test for a new disease, then everyone else started testing and initially found a lot of infections. And since there were a lot of possible hits, the rising number of tests lead to a high number of positive tests which was called “exponential growth”. At one point, the top was reached, most actual infections were found and therefore the tests started showing less and less positive results. We called that “we’ve managed to flatten the curve”.


That does not explain the observed data including a lack of overwhelmed ICUs before the New Year or the lack of genetic diversity of the virus with a molecular clock analysis putting its emergence in humans around late October.
-Doc Lightning-

"The sky calls to us. If we do not destroy ourselves, we will one day venture to the stars."
-Carl Sagan

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