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aaden
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Predictions on Electoral College Results 2020

Sun May 17, 2020 7:35 pm

All:

Would anyone care to give their predictions on how the 2020 Presidential election plays out on the electoral college map?

Poltical views aside, I am just curious as to how people feel the numbers will shake out. Last time around we had some suprises.
 
rfields5421
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Re: Predictions on Electoral College Results 2020

Sun May 17, 2020 9:27 pm

Too early to even guess.

Ask again in October when the unemployment numbers are out. If people are happy about the economy and getting back to work - Trump wins the states he won four years ago easily and picks up a couple states.

People are unhappy and worries - several close states go to the Democrats.
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stl07
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Re: Predictions on Electoral College Results 2020

Sun May 17, 2020 10:19 pm

rfields5421 wrote:
Too early to even guess.

Ask again in October when the unemployment numbers are out. If people are happy about the economy and getting back to work - Trump wins the states he won four years ago easily and picks up a couple states.

People are unhappy and worries - several close states go to the Democrats.

Yup. This. You can't predict a thing right now
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zakuivcustom
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Re: Predictions on Electoral College Results 2020

Sun May 17, 2020 11:35 pm

It is definitely too early to predict.

Polls are showing Biden leading in a few important states such as Florida and Pennsylvania, but not by much. A 2-3 point margin is definitely within polling margin.

Trump won MI, PA, WI by a total of 70k. Throw in the 110k margin at FL, those will be the states to keep watch of, again.

AZ looks to switch to D, NC is in play, and perhaps OH (although Trump's margin there last time around is surprisingly large).

Of course, there is the worst case scenario for Trump where he lose Texas. That would be truly game over.
 
winginit
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Re: Predictions on Electoral College Results 2020

Sun May 17, 2020 11:53 pm

rfields5421 wrote:
Too early to even guess.

Ask again in October when the unemployment numbers are out. If people are happy about the economy and getting back to work - Trump wins the states he won four years ago easily and picks up a couple states.

People are unhappy and worries - several close states go to the Democrats.


Spot on.
 
afcjets
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Re: Predictions on Electoral College Results 2020

Mon May 18, 2020 12:28 am

The biggest unknown right now is who Biden will pick for VP or if Biden will even be the nominee. If the economy is worse and he picks Gretchen, that could be a mistake. Her micromanagement of retail chains is inconsistent and isn't helping small businesses. The best chance I think the DNC has is to drop Joe and pick Hillary with Bernie as VP. That way they can embrace Bernie and his supporters risk free, who they need to win. It's the only way to semi-fairly shaft Bernie again if Joe is replaced.
 
NIKV69
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Re: Predictions on Electoral College Results 2020

Mon May 18, 2020 12:37 am

afcjets wrote:
The best chance I think the DNC has is to drop Joe and pick Hillary with Bernie as VP. That way they can embrace Bernie and his supporters risk free, who they need to win. It's the only way to semi-fairly shaft Bernie again if Joe is replaced.


So a woman who was supposed to be coronated but who lost to a novice who never held office is going to win second time around with a total whacko as VP? I doubt it. If they give up on Sleepy Joe they will insert Cuomo who can't win Ohio and if the economy is recovering Trump will win the same states as 2016.

If Dems had a sane decent candidate they probably beat Trump but boy did they muck it up with the fringe.
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Ken777
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Re: Predictions on Electoral College Results 2020

Mon May 18, 2020 1:57 am

Trump's in for a rough ride. Last time he lost the popular vote by around 3,000,000 and only won the EC by. around 100,000. That was when people were voting AGAINST Clinton.

Now the voters have someone to vote FOR and Trump is far from attractive. By November more Americans will have died from the virus than killed in all wars during our lifetimes. And he will continue to say "it's not my fault".

Trump will also continue to fight stimulus bills as he will be totally ignorant of how people are suffering. That spells anoth4er Great Recession or a real Great Depression.

Trump has been the worst President in our history and our problems today make that clear. He's dead to more and more voters every week when the bad news keeps coming out.
 
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WarRI1
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Re: Predictions on Electoral College Results 2020

Mon May 18, 2020 2:14 am

Ken777 wrote:
Trump's in for a rough ride. Last time he lost the popular vote by around 3,000,000 and only won the EC by. around 100,000. That was when people were voting AGAINST Clinton.

Now the voters have someone to vote FOR and Trump is far from attractive. By November more Americans will have died from the virus than killed in all wars during our lifetimes. And he will continue to say "it's not my fault".

Trump will also continue to fight stimulus bills as he will be totally ignorant of how people are suffering. That spells anoth4er Great Recession or a real Great Depression.

Trump has been the worst President in our history and our problems today make that clear. He's dead to more and more voters every week when the bad news keeps coming out.



Amen to to that, we are now the laughing stock of the world, Diplomatically and Medically and Presidential image
wise. Not many Presidents have been laughed at on the world stage, this Buffoon has. If that is the image the US wants, we are doomed.
Last edited by WarRI1 on Mon May 18, 2020 2:32 am, edited 1 time in total.
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ltbewr
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Re: Predictions on Electoral College Results 2020

Mon May 18, 2020 2:28 am

I fear another 2000 Gore v. Bush-Florida crises where a very close and disputed vote in a state with a Republican controlled Legislature like FL again or WI, MI, or PA affecting the EC vote. The Republican controlled legislatures of those states will likely limit the expansion of voting by mail, cut budgets for elections, so disenfranchising 10's of 1000's. They could also certify an election to the EC in favor of Trump even if numbers are narrowly in favor of Biden. This will be on top of the possibility of many afraid to go out to vote during the current fears of infection with the likely still ongoing pandemic, a nasty and non-traditional campaign, many so disillusioned by both party's candidates, mistakes made by Biden, Biden's choice of VP turning off many White voters, an 'October Surprise' by Trump, a major hurricane or some other major natural disaster, 100's of 1000's dead, and of course mass unemployment, and economic depression and who knows what else.
 
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WarRI1
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Re: Predictions on Electoral College Results 2020

Mon May 18, 2020 2:47 am

Sometime in the past, we had a war over such conditions as we can now see appearing in this country. We are fast becoming economically, morally and ethically bankrupt and getting worse with a Buffoon president openly exhorting people to defy the rules which are the fabric of society. He has blown this Pandemic into a worse disaster by incompetence as former President Obama pointed out yesterday. trump has destroyed the concept of honesty, he has distorted reality with his platitudes every time he opens his big lying mouth.
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Newark727
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Re: Predictions on Electoral College Results 2020

Mon May 18, 2020 3:04 am

afcjets wrote:
The biggest unknown right now is who Biden will pick for VP or if Biden will even be the nominee. If the economy is worse and he picks Gretchen, that could be a mistake. Her micromanagement of retail chains is inconsistent and isn't helping small businesses. The best chance I think the DNC has is to drop Joe and pick Hillary with Bernie as VP. That way they can embrace Bernie and his supporters risk free, who they need to win. It's the only way to semi-fairly shaft Bernie again if Joe is replaced.


Bringing Hillary back is the dumbest thing the Democrats could possibly do, which of course is no guarantee that it won't happen.
 
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WarRI1
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Re: Predictions on Electoral College Results 2020

Mon May 18, 2020 3:11 am

Newark727 wrote:
afcjets wrote:
The biggest unknown right now is who Biden will pick for VP or if Biden will even be the nominee. If the economy is worse and he picks Gretchen, that could be a mistake. Her micromanagement of retail chains is inconsistent and isn't helping small businesses. The best chance I think the DNC has is to drop Joe and pick Hillary with Bernie as VP. That way they can embrace Bernie and his supporters risk free, who they need to win. It's the only way to semi-fairly shaft Bernie again if Joe is replaced.


Bringing Hillary back is the dumbest thing the Democrats could possibly do, which of course is no guarantee that it won't happen.



I will ignore your snide remark ;) I will say that to even speak of Hillary possibly being a candidate again is a long, long shot, and about as possible as trump keeping his mouth shut and turning off his lying and keeping his self promotion under control. :banghead:
Last edited by WarRI1 on Mon May 18, 2020 3:33 am, edited 1 time in total.
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DL717
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Re: Predictions on Electoral College Results 2020

Mon May 18, 2020 3:16 am

I don’t even know if we’ll have any kind of pulse on this election cycle at all. The Dems didn’t even finish a primary because of this and the candidates aren’t able to get out and about. God help us with the TV ads. It’s going to be pure hell.
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DL717
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Re: Predictions on Electoral College Results 2020

Mon May 18, 2020 3:19 am

Ken777 wrote:
Trump's in for a rough ride. Last time he lost the popular vote by around 3,000,000 and only won the EC by. around 100,000. That was when people were voting AGAINST Clinton.

Now the voters have someone to vote FOR and Trump is far from attractive. By November more Americans will have died from the virus than killed in all wars during our lifetimes. And he will continue to say "it's not my fault".

Trump will also continue to fight stimulus bills as he will be totally ignorant of how people are suffering. That spells anoth4er Great Recession or a real Great Depression.

Trump has been the worst President in our history and our problems today make that clear. He's dead to more and more voters every week when the bad news keeps coming out.


So Bugs “Biden” Bunny is someone to vote for now? This COVID mess was the best thing ever for Biden. Kept his stupid durning the joke of a primary to a minimum.
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tommy1808
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Re: Predictions on Electoral College Results 2020

Mon May 18, 2020 6:14 am

Ken777 wrote:
Trump's in for a rough ride. Last time he lost the popular vote by around 3,000,000 and only won the EC by. around 100,000. That was when people were voting AGAINST Clinton..


and you can expect them to try mightily to make people have the same feelings about Biden. Expect the DoJ to announce an investigation just in time for the election, and just to late for a federal court or grand jury to tell them to take a hike with their baseless smear campaign.

But the unregistered foreign agents over at Fox will keep committing libel against anyone that the don´t click their heels quick enough.

DL717 wrote:
This COVID mess was the best thing ever for Biden. Kept his stupid durning the joke of a primary to a minimum.


Yup, the Trump admin proving to be too incompetent to even go out and buy stuff, and causing tens of thousands absolutely preventable deaths, while actively promoting ideas to make the lockdowns longer and the economic hardship so much worse is a great campaign help.

winginit wrote:
rfields5421 wrote:
Too early to even guess.

Ask again in October when the unemployment numbers are out. If people are happy about the economy and getting back to work - Trump wins the states he won four years ago easily and picks up a couple states.

People are unhappy and worries - several close states go to the Democrats.


Spot on.


Yup, too early. Some stuff is innteressting... out of voters not liking either candidate, 60% say they vote for Biden, 10% vote for Trump. That is essentially the reverse of 2016.

best regards
Thomas
Well, there is prophecy in the bible after all: 2 Timothy 3:1-6
 
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bgm
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Re: Predictions on Electoral College Results 2020

Mon May 18, 2020 8:16 am

Trump may lose simply because his base are quite literally dying off. The old white brigade seem to be Covid-19's favorite targets. Looking at you, Florida.
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afcjets
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Re: Predictions on Electoral College Results 2020

Mon May 18, 2020 8:18 am

NIKV69 wrote:
afcjets wrote:
The best chance I think the DNC has is to drop Joe and pick Hillary with Bernie as VP. That way they can embrace Bernie and his supporters risk free, who they need to win. It's the only way to semi-fairly shaft Bernie again if Joe is replaced.


So a woman who was supposed to be coronated but who lost to a novice who never held office is going to win second time around with a total whacko as VP? I doubt it. If they give up on Sleepy Joe they will insert Cuomo who can't win Ohio and if the economy is recovering Trump will win the same states as 2016.

If Dems had a sane decent candidate they probably beat Trump but boy did they muck it up with the fringe.


She lost to someone who had a cult following and filled up stadiums and she won the popular vote. And don't forget all the Russian collusion which caused her to lose the election ;)

Democrats need Bernie supporters to win. If Joe is replaced, Hillary is the only person to ever get more votes than Bernie and many Democrats believe the election was literally stolen from her last time. Covid might be the first thing where Hillary enters something with clean hands too. She is the only Democrat who can say I would have implemented the travel ban sooner even though we all know she likely wouldn't have. The DNC won't give it to Bernie (although perhaps now they might think the country has bigger problems than a Democratic Socialst for President) even though he deserves it and picking anyone else couldn't be justified the way Hillary could. AFAIK she's in relatively good health so the risk of him actually becoming President is slim but he brings in the votes.
 
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einsteinboricua
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Re: Predictions on Electoral College Results 2020

Mon May 18, 2020 1:16 pm

The biggest factor here is Biden's running mate. Would be interesting to see how different tickets poll. People are pushing for Warren to be Biden's VP pick, not taking into account that Gov. Baker could appoint a Republican and be the deciding factor in flipping the Senate back to GOP hands (assuming Democrats narrowly flip it). If Stacey Abrams is the running mate, I'll hold my nose and vote for the ticket. I soured on her when she was being discussed as a good running mate for Biden (very early in the season) and she said she doesn't run for second place and that it's racist and misogynist to think of her as a VP when she hadn't made up her mind about running for president; now she's flashing hints that she IS the indicated person to run for the slot (even though she says she's not actively campaigning for it).

I would gladly support a Biden-Harris, Biden-Whitmer, or Biden-Lujan-Grisham ticket far more enthusiastically than a Biden-Abrams ticket.

That being said, the three blue wall states that Trump flipped are definitely in play, and I'd say MI is probably already in the lean D column (with PA tilting and WI being a true tossup). Head south and FL polls show Biden leading so I'd give it a tilt D. Head out west and AZ shows the same story.

The big surprise of the night (assuming polls continue to be this tight) will be TX which is polling closer than GA. I would not be surprised if Biden manages to flip TX, or keep the race to a very close margin.

TL;DR: wait until the ticket is fully defined before throwing a few predictions.
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casinterest
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Re: Predictions on Electoral College Results 2020

Mon May 18, 2020 1:33 pm

Trump could be in big trouble in Pennsylvania and Michigan. Steel and jpbs are a major reason for Trump's victories in those states in 2016. Steel is getting pummeled as is the Auto Industry. While Trump is trying to paint his way as the champion of the economy, it may not matter much as the demand for Steel and Auto's will plummet this year.
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NWAESC
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Re: Predictions on Electoral College Results 2020

Mon May 18, 2020 2:12 pm

einsteinboricua wrote:

... (with PA tilting and WI being a true tossup)...


I think WI voters will remember the disastrous spring primary and the role the GOP played in it. Like it or not, Trump will be attached to that.
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winginit
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Re: Predictions on Electoral College Results 2020

Mon May 18, 2020 4:06 pm

einsteinboricua wrote:
The biggest factor here is Biden's running mate. Would be interesting to see how different tickets poll. People are pushing for Warren to be Biden's VP pick, not taking into account that Gov. Baker could appoint a Republican and be the deciding factor in flipping the Senate back to GOP hands (assuming Democrats narrowly flip it).


What would be Warren's empty seat in the short term is a non issue. Democrats have a super majority in the Massachusetts legislature, so what they'd simply do, as other states have done, is pass legislation saying that the Governor has to appoint someone with the same party affiliation as, in this case, Warren. Problem solved.
 
GalaxyFlyer
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Re: Predictions on Electoral College Results 2020

Mon May 18, 2020 9:16 pm

WarRI1 wrote:
Ken777 wrote:
Trump's in for a rough ride. Last time he lost the popular vote by around 3,000,000 and only won the EC by. around 100,000. That was when people were voting AGAINST Clinton.

Now the voters have someone to vote FOR and Trump is far from attractive. By November more Americans will have died from the virus than killed in all wars during our lifetimes. And he will continue to say "it's not my fault".

Trump will also continue to fight stimulus bills as he will be totally ignorant of how people are suffering. That spells anoth4er Great Recession or a real Great Depression.

Trump has been the worst President in our history and our problems today make that clear. He's dead to more and more voters every week when the bad news keeps coming out.



Amen to to that, we are now the laughing stock of the world, Diplomatically and Medically and Presidential image
wise. Not many Presidents have been laughed at on the world stage, this Buffoon has. If that is the image the US wants, we are doomed.


How many countries have you personally visited in the last four years? The last twenty years? Or are you just spitballing.
 
GalaxyFlyer
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Re: Predictions on Electoral College Results 2020

Mon May 18, 2020 9:22 pm

winginit wrote:
einsteinboricua wrote:
The biggest factor here is Biden's running mate. Would be interesting to see how different tickets poll. People are pushing for Warren to be Biden's VP pick, not taking into account that Gov. Baker could appoint a Republican and be the deciding factor in flipping the Senate back to GOP hands (assuming Democrats narrowly flip it).


What would be Warren's empty seat in the short term is a non issue. Democrats have a super majority in the Massachusetts legislature, so what they'd simply do, as other states have done, is pass legislation saying that the Governor has to appoint someone with the same party affiliation as, in this case, Warren. Problem solved.


The idiocy in power in MA has screwed around with the law twice in recent times trying to avoid a Republican governor from selecting a Republican Senator to fill a vacancy. An embarrassment.

GF
 
Pi7472000
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Re: Predictions on Electoral College Results 2020

Mon May 18, 2020 9:24 pm

Sweep across the board for Biden except in a few Midwest/Plains/Southern states. Won't even be close.
 
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einsteinboricua
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Re: Predictions on Electoral College Results 2020

Mon May 18, 2020 9:53 pm

GalaxyFlyer wrote:
The idiocy in power in MA has screwed around with the law twice in recent times trying to avoid a Republican governor from selecting a Republican Senator to fill a vacancy. An embarrassment.

So what's the embarrassment? Are you telling me you'd be happy with a Democratic governor naming a Democrat to occupy a Senate seat in a ruby red state? I mean, if that's the case, then I can only hope for a premature end to McConnell's or Roberts's terms...imagine a Democrat appointed to either state's Senate seat. And it would be an embarrassment for the GOP-led legislatures of either state to change the rules (I mean, you said it yourself).
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9Patch
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Re: Predictions on Electoral College Results 2020

Mon May 18, 2020 11:27 pm

DL717 wrote:

So Bugs “Biden” Bunny is someone to vote for now? This COVID mess was the best thing ever for Biden. Kept his stupid durning the joke of a primary to a minimum.

And let Trump's stupid have the stage all to itself.
 
winginit
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Re: Predictions on Electoral College Results 2020

Mon May 18, 2020 11:30 pm

GalaxyFlyer wrote:
winginit wrote:
einsteinboricua wrote:
The biggest factor here is Biden's running mate. Would be interesting to see how different tickets poll. People are pushing for Warren to be Biden's VP pick, not taking into account that Gov. Baker could appoint a Republican and be the deciding factor in flipping the Senate back to GOP hands (assuming Democrats narrowly flip it).


What would be Warren's empty seat in the short term is a non issue. Democrats have a super majority in the Massachusetts legislature, so what they'd simply do, as other states have done, is pass legislation saying that the Governor has to appoint someone with the same party affiliation as, in this case, Warren. Problem solved.


The idiocy in power in MA has screwed around with the law twice in recent times trying to avoid a Republican governor from selecting a Republican Senator to fill a vacancy. An embarrassment.

GF


Standard political practice. Elections have consequences.
 
9Patch
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Re: Predictions on Electoral College Results 2020

Mon May 18, 2020 11:35 pm

Doug Sosnik, a longtime Democratic consultant, see opportunities for the Ds in the South and Southwest--regions that are quite clearly moving in Democrats' direction demographically and otherwise.

And at the top of that list is Arizona, which Sosnik describes as "the state most likely to transition to a Democratic base state as early as November."

Why? Because of the rising Hispanic voting-age population coupled with major turnout increases among that same group. (Hispanic turnout went up 25% between 2014 and 2018, according to Sosnik's calculations.)


Viewed beyond just the coming 2020 election, what Sosnik sees is a fundamental realignment in the Electoral College map, with the Midwest moving slightly more Republican even as the South and Southwest move much more heavily Democratic.

"The 2020 elections will start a new era in presidential politics with an increasing number of states like Arizona and North Carolina becoming the political battlegrounds in American politics," concludes Sosnik. "The Biden campaign's strategy should focus on this new political map in our country rather than refighting the 2016 election."

https://view.newsletters.cnn.com/messag ... 9f3b7f2809
 
NIKV69
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Re: Predictions on Electoral College Results 2020

Tue May 19, 2020 1:12 am

afcjets wrote:

Democrats need Bernie supporters to win.


Wrong, they need independents to win. Left fringe will vote for anyone running against Trump because of their TDS and Rachel Maddow tells them too so you got those votes already. It's the middle of the electorate that gave Trump the win last time and will probably do it again since the lefts Candidate is so bad and isn't capable of holding office unless his wife holds his hand. Also forget Bernie he means nothing to this race. He never did and he never will.
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TWA772LR
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Re: Predictions on Electoral College Results 2020

Tue May 19, 2020 1:13 am

Trump will be reelected and the country will be further polarized. :(
When wasn't America great?


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WarRI1
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Re: Predictions on Electoral College Results 2020

Tue May 19, 2020 1:32 am

GalaxyFlyer wrote:
WarRI1 wrote:
Ken777 wrote:
Trump's in for a rough ride. Last time he lost the popular vote by around 3,000,000 and only won the EC by. around 100,000. That was when people were voting AGAINST Clinton.

Now the voters have someone to vote FOR and Trump is far from attractive. By November more Americans will have died from the virus than killed in all wars during our lifetimes. And he will continue to say "it's not my fault".

Trump will also continue to fight stimulus bills as he will be totally ignorant of how people are suffering. That spells anoth4er Great Recession or a real Great Depression.

Trump has been the worst President in our history and our problems today make that clear. He's dead to more and more voters every week when the bad news keeps coming out.



Amen to to that, we are now the laughing stock of the world, Diplomatically and Medically and Presidential image
wise. Not many Presidents have been laughed at on the world stage, this Buffoon has. If that is the image the US wants, we are doomed.


How many countries have you personally visited in the last four years? The last twenty years? Or are you just spitballing.



Many many by keeping informed and watching the news and reading the news. Virtual visits I guess also. I get one daily paper, seven days a week, one local 2 days a week. I do even watch that Fox News, except when trump is blowing in the wind. I have traveled internationally by air and by sea. So no, not as you so grossly put in Spit balling it. And as you may have noticed, also I am computer literate. :sarcastic:
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tommy1808
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Re: Predictions on Electoral College Results 2020

Tue May 19, 2020 5:16 am

TWA772LR wrote:
Trump will be reelected and the country will be further polarized. :(


But won't be this easy this time, but Trump and his henchman did already test the waters for not having an election.

Bigger but: since foreign interference in US elections was just legalized by Republicans, there is going to be lots of it. Most places will want him gone.

Best regards
Thomas
Well, there is prophecy in the bible after all: 2 Timothy 3:1-6
 
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TWA772LR
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Re: Predictions on Electoral College Results 2020

Tue May 19, 2020 5:20 am

tommy1808 wrote:

Bigger but: since foreign interference in US elections was just legalized by Republicans, there is going to be lots of it. Most places will want him gone.

Best regards
Thomas

Link?
When wasn't America great?


The thoughts and opinions shared under this username are mine and are not influenced by my employer.
 
tommy1808
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Re: Predictions on Electoral College Results 2020

Tue May 19, 2020 5:27 am

TWA772LR wrote:
tommy1808 wrote:

Bigger but: since foreign interference in US elections was just legalized by Republicans, there is going to be lots of it. Most places will want him gone.

Best regards
Thomas

Link?


To what specific?
Well, there is prophecy in the bible after all: 2 Timothy 3:1-6
 
Kiwirob
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Re: Predictions on Electoral College Results 2020

Tue May 19, 2020 5:33 am

GalaxyFlyer wrote:
WarRI1 wrote:
Ken777 wrote:
Trump's in for a rough ride. Last time he lost the popular vote by around 3,000,000 and only won the EC by. around 100,000. That was when people were voting AGAINST Clinton.

Now the voters have someone to vote FOR and Trump is far from attractive. By November more Americans will have died from the virus than killed in all wars during our lifetimes. And he will continue to say "it's not my fault".

Trump will also continue to fight stimulus bills as he will be totally ignorant of how people are suffering. That spells anoth4er Great Recession or a real Great Depression.

Trump has been the worst President in our history and our problems today make that clear. He's dead to more and more voters every week when the bad news keeps coming out.



Amen to to that, we are now the laughing stock of the world, Diplomatically and Medically and Presidential image
wise. Not many Presidents have been laughed at on the world stage, this Buffoon has. If that is the image the US wants, we are doomed.


How many countries have you personally visited in the last four years? The last twenty years? Or are you just spitballing.


And how many have you visited? If you honestly think the average citizen of this planet who has access to any form of media doesn't think Trump is a joke you've been watching far to much Fox and are blinded to the reality of the situation, we all though Bush 2 was bad but he's a got nothing on Trump, we all laugh at his supporters as well.
 
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TWA772LR
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Re: Predictions on Electoral College Results 2020

Tue May 19, 2020 5:39 am

tommy1808 wrote:
TWA772LR wrote:
tommy1808 wrote:

Bigger but: since foreign interference in US elections was just legalized by Republicans, there is going to be lots of it. Most places will want him gone.

Best regards
Thomas

Link?


To what specific?

You just claimed “foreign interference in US elections was legalized by Republicans“. Do you have a link to a reputable source on that?
When wasn't America great?


The thoughts and opinions shared under this username are mine and are not influenced by my employer.
 
tommy1808
Posts: 12876
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Re: Predictions on Electoral College Results 2020

Tue May 19, 2020 5:43 am

TWA772LR wrote:
tommy1808 wrote:
TWA772LR wrote:
Link?


To what specific?

Do you have a link to a reputable source on that?


No, just to Republicans.

Best regards
Thomas
Well, there is prophecy in the bible after all: 2 Timothy 3:1-6
 
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stl07
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Re: Predictions on Electoral College Results 2020

Tue May 19, 2020 7:23 am

einsteinboricua wrote:
The big surprise of the night (assuming polls continue to be this tight) will be TX

I think the key to Biden winning will be to keep gloating about TX and make Trump waste his money defending TX while Biden can then Ad bomb the midwest blue wall that HRC lost.
Instead of typing in "mods", consider using the report function.
Love how every "travel blogger" says they will never fly AA/Ethihad again and then says it again and again on subsequent flights.
 
Cadet985
Posts: 2244
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Re: Predictions on Electoral College Results 2020

Tue May 19, 2020 9:31 am

Despite being a Republican, I don’t make a final decision until the debates. That said, Biden scares me. He’s a smart man, a dedicated public servant but his age and his gaffes concern me — and yes, I know Trump has had his fair share of gaffes.

That said, it may also come down to — for me — who Biden picks as his running mate. Harris and Warren too far left for me. Whitmer would guarantee he loses Michigan and probably the other swing states. I might be interested if he picked Gabbard, but Biden has a major strike against him in my book. The minute he promised to make a female his running mate, I feel he broke equal opportunity laws. That meant that he wasn’t even going to consider a male for the role. If I owned a business and said that I’m only hiring men or only hiring women, I could be slapped with a lawsuit.

So IMHO, if he picks Whitmer, Trump should thank him immediately.

In terms of the EC, I don’t know what to predict. I do think the EC may again go to the candidate who doesn’t necessarily win the popular vote, and that will lead for calls for the EC to be abolished, and I really don’t feel that’s the answer. A full popular vote definitely isn’t the answer, but I’m not educated enough to come up with another idea.

Marc
 
afcjets
Posts: 3439
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Re: Predictions on Electoral College Results 2020

Tue May 19, 2020 12:42 pm

NIKV69 wrote:
afcjets wrote:

Democrats need Bernie supporters to win.


Wrong, they need independents to win. Left fringe will vote for anyone running against Trump because of their TDS and Rachel Maddow tells them too so you got those votes already. It's the middle of the electorate that gave Trump the win last time and will probably do it again since the lefts Candidate is so bad and isn't capable of holding office unless his wife holds his hand. Also forget Bernie he means nothing to this race. He never did and he never will.


Bernie supporters are not the Democrats with TDS, in fact many of them voted for Trump or stayed home last time. They are also a cult like following and they certainly aren't going to show up if he gets shafted by the DNC twice if Joe is replaced with anyone other than him.
 
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T18
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Re: Predictions on Electoral College Results 2020

Tue May 19, 2020 2:23 pm

I am nearly 100% confident in saying that more than 90% of the electoral votes will go to a man the other one third of the country hates for reason X,Y or Z. The other 10% or less (more likely 1% tbh) will go to third party or independent who no one who didn't vote for them has ever heard of because they don't hitch their wagon to the corrupt trains of the GOP or DNC establishments.
“Racing's important to men who do it well. When you're racing, it's life. Anything that happens before or after is just waiting.” ― Steve McQueen (Le Mans) 1971
 
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Aaron747
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Re: Predictions on Electoral College Results 2020

Tue May 19, 2020 2:28 pm

GalaxyFlyer wrote:
WarRI1 wrote:
Ken777 wrote:
Trump's in for a rough ride. Last time he lost the popular vote by around 3,000,000 and only won the EC by. around 100,000. That was when people were voting AGAINST Clinton.

Now the voters have someone to vote FOR and Trump is far from attractive. By November more Americans will have died from the virus than killed in all wars during our lifetimes. And he will continue to say "it's not my fault".

Trump will also continue to fight stimulus bills as he will be totally ignorant of how people are suffering. That spells anoth4er Great Recession or a real Great Depression.

Trump has been the worst President in our history and our problems today make that clear. He's dead to more and more voters every week when the bad news keeps coming out.



Amen to to that, we are now the laughing stock of the world, Diplomatically and Medically and Presidential image
wise. Not many Presidents have been laughed at on the world stage, this Buffoon has. If that is the image the US wants, we are doomed.


How many countries have you personally visited in the last four years? The last twenty years? Or are you just spitballing.


18 countries in the last 15 years, including living abroad for ten. I would say most people I encountered who wanted to talk US politics had opinions about each POTUS who came up, some positive and some negative. What is almost always negative is the topic of US hypocrisy and Americans’ limited perspective.
If you need someone to blame / throw a rock in the air / you'll hit someone guilty
 
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einsteinboricua
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Re: Predictions on Electoral College Results 2020

Tue May 19, 2020 2:51 pm

Cadet985 wrote:
In terms of the EC, I don’t know what to predict. I do think the EC may again go to the candidate who doesn’t necessarily win the popular vote, and that will lead for calls for the EC to be abolished, and I really don’t feel that’s the answer. A full popular vote definitely isn’t the answer, but I’m not educated enough to come up with another idea.

There are two solutions that, if enacted together, will make the EC seem fair at a minimum.

1. Ensure that every state has an equal proportion of votes to each other. WY has an EC vote for every 187,000 residents or so (roughly) while CA has an EC vote for every 718,000 residents or so. That is a huge disparity caused by capping the House membership at 435 and not keeping up with population growth. Letting the House membership fluctuate so that each state has a delegation proportional to the smallest state ensures that the EC votes each state gets is more in line with each other (it still won't be because of the two additional votes each state gets for its Senators, but you won't have as many "wasted/packed" votes). CA would need 66 House reps to be proportional-ish to WY's delegation in terms of people represented per Congressperson. If we expand that to EC votes, CA would need abut 211 EC votes to be equally represented with WY's 3 votes (about 187k each).

2. Award all EC votes proportionally by vote. No more WTA system or by congressional districts (this latter one which could exacerbate gerrymandering). This ensures that every single vote counts. Even in states with overwhelming majority for one party, the minority is guaranteed votes (except in a place like WY or DC where the vote is so lopsided that all votes will go to one candidate). Presidential candidates will now have to visit all states in order to maximize their EC total. No party will have an advantage, no state will be ignored, and no state will be given outsized attention.

With these two, the EC can still remain in place and be a true reflection of the will of voters in each state. If such a system had been in place for the general election of 2016, no candidate would have reached a majority of EC votes. Trump would have held about 1-2 more EC votes than Clinton, but only with current rules; had these two rules been enacted, Clinton would have been 1-2 EC votes shy of the presidency. The House would have had to vote, but the Libertarians, Greens, and McMullin would have all gotten at least 1 vote each.
"You haven't seen a tree until you've seen its shadow from the sky."
 
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Aaron747
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Re: Predictions on Electoral College Results 2020

Tue May 19, 2020 3:57 pm

Fantastic thread here where conservative Tom Nichols deconstructs all the goalpost-moving other conservatives have done on 45, wondering - just what is there to vote for? He points out his class has done fine while aggrieved elsewhere are still not at all okay.

https://twitter.com/radiofreetom/status ... 18979?s=21
If you need someone to blame / throw a rock in the air / you'll hit someone guilty
 
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ER757
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Re: Predictions on Electoral College Results 2020

Tue May 19, 2020 4:06 pm

afcjets wrote:
NIKV69 wrote:
afcjets wrote:

Democrats need Bernie supporters to win.


Wrong, they need independents to win. Left fringe will vote for anyone running against Trump because of their TDS and Rachel Maddow tells them too so you got those votes already. It's the middle of the electorate that gave Trump the win last time and will probably do it again since the lefts Candidate is so bad and isn't capable of holding office unless his wife holds his hand. Also forget Bernie he means nothing to this race. He never did and he never will.


Bernie supporters are not the Democrats with TDS, in fact many of them voted for Trump or stayed home last time. They are also a cult like following and they certainly aren't going to show up if he gets shafted by the DNC twice if Joe is replaced with anyone other than him.

I am having a hard time seeing how the DNC shafted Bernie this time around. I believe he simply got less votes by registered Democrats in the primaries that Biden did. How exactly did the DNC "shaft" him??

Too early to tell how the EC results will shake out this time - there are still too many variables. To name just a few: who does Biden pick as his VP? Where will unemployment and the stock market be come October? How long will the pandemic severely curtail normalcy and what with be the death rate by then? How prevalent will vote by mail be? How many polling places will be open and available in vote in person states?
 
AirWorthy99
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Re: Predictions on Electoral College Results 2020

Tue May 19, 2020 4:16 pm

What I see in this thread is no one is really willing to give any predictions. I would have thought those Trump haters in this forum (which are the vast majority) would be willing to give a prediction, yet it seems that even them are not so sure of Biden's possibilities of winning.

Some are just willing to take vague prediction just that when November comes, they don't come out as having failed miserably.

Perhaps some are not willing to make the same mistake of 2016.
“It’s easy to confuse ‘what is’ with ‘what ought to be,’ especially when ‘what is’ has worked out in your favor.” Tyrion Lannister
 
winginit
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Re: Predictions on Electoral College Results 2020

Tue May 19, 2020 4:33 pm

AirWorthy99 wrote:
What I see in this thread is no one is really willing to give any predictions. I would have thought those Trump haters in this forum (which are the vast majority) would be willing to give a prediction, yet it seems that even them are not so sure of Biden's possibilities of winning.

Some are just willing to take vague prediction just that when November comes, they don't come out as having failed miserably.

Perhaps some are not willing to make the same mistake of 2016.


Here you go:

Image

I showed you mine now show me yours.
 
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einsteinboricua
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Re: Predictions on Electoral College Results 2020

Tue May 19, 2020 4:41 pm

AirWorthy99 wrote:
What I see in this thread is no one is really willing to give any predictions. I would have thought those Trump haters in this forum (which are the vast majority) would be willing to give a prediction, yet it seems that even them are not so sure of Biden's possibilities of winning.

I can bring up my own map and show that, IF the election were held today, Biden would come out on top. This has nothing to do with being unsure of Biden's possibilities of winning, but rather that there are a lot of unknowns at the moment. Who is Biden's running mate? Will the economy crash even further? Will covid-19 continue with a vaccine proving elusive? Will there be a terrorist attack? Once the conventions are over and general election campaigning kicks off, I'll feel more confident in making predictions.

But since you're eager for a prediction, this is my view of things as of right now (with current polling and state dynamics).
Image
Biden at 308, with AZ, PA and FL tilting D; Trump at 203, with TX and OH tilting R. WI and NC, with NE-2 and ME-2 (27 EC votes in total) are true tossups right now. Every other state is self explanatory.

AirWorthy99 wrote:
Some are just willing to take vague prediction just that when November comes, they don't come out as having failed miserably.

See point above.

AirWorthy99 wrote:
Perhaps some are not willing to make the same mistake of 2016.
The main problem in 2016 was lack of statewide polls. At the national level, they got it right: Clinton won. At the state level, a lot of deciding states didn't have as many polls as others did. it's why in 2018 many of those states were swamped with polls (MI, in particular). There's also the question as to how many people didn't admit to voting for Trump but did anyway. And, of course, the bigger question: whether Comey's letter to Congress regarding the emails moved the needle towards Trump enough to decide the election in many of these states.
"You haven't seen a tree until you've seen its shadow from the sky."
 
AirWorthy99
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Re: Predictions on Electoral College Results 2020

Tue May 19, 2020 4:53 pm

Great so this now topic is getting interesting.

This is mine, Trump will win with a bit less EC votes than 2016

Image
“It’s easy to confuse ‘what is’ with ‘what ought to be,’ especially when ‘what is’ has worked out in your favor.” Tyrion Lannister

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