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Dutchy
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Re: Predictions on Electoral College Results 2020

Tue May 19, 2020 4:56 pm

I love the title: Electoral College Results 2020, not presidential race, nor election results, but just the outdated Electoral College. Anyhow, this is what counts in the US system, not the election results themselves. My prediction: Trump will have his second term.

And hopefully, I am wrong, last time I was wrong, Trump became president, so what do I know......
Many happy landings, greetings from The Netherlands!
 
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casinterest
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Re: Predictions on Electoral College Results 2020

Tue May 19, 2020 4:59 pm

https://www.270towin.com/maps/yykZN

This is mine.
Trump blows it with Seniors and loses Az, and FL. The downturn sends workers running back for the Unions, flipping Pa and Mi. Ohio is a close call but Trump keeps it, and NC stays Red through misunderstanding how the Tech Industry is propping the state up.
Image
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AirWorthy99
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Re: Predictions on Electoral College Results 2020

Tue May 19, 2020 5:04 pm

Dutchy wrote:
I love the title: Electoral College Results 2020, not presidential race, nor election results, but just the outdated Electoral College. Anyhow, this is what counts in the US system, not the election results themselves. My prediction: Trump will have his second term.

And hopefully, I am wrong, last time I was wrong, Trump became president, so what do I know......


How different is it from this institution:

The European Commission (EC) is the executive branch of the European Union, responsible for proposing legislation, implementing decisions, upholding the EU treaties and managing the day-to-day business of the EU.[2] Commissioners swear an oath at the European Court of Justice in Luxembourg City, pledging to respect the treaties and to be completely independent in carrying out their duties during their mandate.[3] The Commissioners are proposed by the Council of the European Union, on the basis of suggestions made by the national governments, and then appointed by the European Council after the approval of the European Parliament. It is common, although not a formal requirement, that the commissioners have previously held senior political positions, such as being a member of the European Parliament or a government minister


https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_Commission

When are you going to update this outdated way of selecting such important members of a ruling institution such as the EC?
“It’s easy to confuse ‘what is’ with ‘what ought to be,’ especially when ‘what is’ has worked out in your favor.” Tyrion Lannister
 
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Dutchy
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Re: Predictions on Electoral College Results 2020

Tue May 19, 2020 5:23 pm

AirWorthy99 wrote:
Dutchy wrote:
I love the title: Electoral College Results 2020, not presidential race, nor election results, but just the outdated Electoral College. Anyhow, this is what counts in the US system, not the election results themselves. My prediction: Trump will have his second term.

And hopefully, I am wrong, last time I was wrong, Trump became president, so what do I know......


How different is it from this institution:

The European Commission (EC) is the executive branch of the European Union, responsible for proposing legislation, implementing decisions, upholding the EU treaties and managing the day-to-day business of the EU.[2] Commissioners swear an oath at the European Court of Justice in Luxembourg City, pledging to respect the treaties and to be completely independent in carrying out their duties during their mandate.[3] The Commissioners are proposed by the Council of the European Union, on the basis of suggestions made by the national governments, and then appointed by the European Council after the approval of the European Parliament. It is common, although not a formal requirement, that the commissioners have previously held senior political positions, such as being a member of the European Parliament or a government minister


https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_Commission

When are you going to update this outdated way of selecting such important members of a ruling institution such as the EC?


The EU is not a country, BAM, that's a major difference. Second, the EC is not the highest office, the council of the heads of state are. Third, the EC are glorified civil servants, not in the first place, politicians.
Many happy landings, greetings from The Netherlands!
 
winginit
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Re: Predictions on Electoral College Results 2020

Tue May 19, 2020 6:11 pm

AirWorthy99 wrote:
Great so this now topic is getting interesting.

This is mine, Trump will win with a bit less EC votes than 2016


So you rag on people not making specific predictions and then leave states like Pennsylvania uncalled? Cool.
 
AirWorthy99
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Re: Predictions on Electoral College Results 2020

Tue May 19, 2020 6:24 pm

winginit wrote:
AirWorthy99 wrote:
Great so this now topic is getting interesting.

This is mine, Trump will win with a bit less EC votes than 2016


So you rag on people not making specific predictions and then leave states like Pennsylvania uncalled? Cool.


I made a prediction, I think Trump will win, what I think about PA is irrelevant. Even if it goes blue Trump wins anyways.
“It’s easy to confuse ‘what is’ with ‘what ought to be,’ especially when ‘what is’ has worked out in your favor.” Tyrion Lannister
 
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atcsundevil
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Re: Predictions on Electoral College Results 2020

Tue May 19, 2020 7:52 pm

Please keep the thread on topic. This thread has nothing to do with the EU.

✈️ atcsundevil
 
afcjets
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Re: Predictions on Electoral College Results 2020

Wed May 20, 2020 3:49 am

ER757 wrote:
afcjets wrote:
Bernie supporters are not the Democrats with TDS, in fact many of them voted for Trump or stayed home last time. They are also a cult like following and they certainly aren't going to show up if he gets shafted by the DNC twice if Joe is replaced with anyone other than him.

I am having a hard time seeing how the DNC shafted Bernie this time around. I believe he simply got less votes by registered Democrats in the primaries that Biden did. How exactly did the DNC "shaft" him?


They haven't, which is why I said if.
 
NIKV69
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Re: Predictions on Electoral College Results 2020

Wed May 20, 2020 11:40 am

Dutchy wrote:
I love the title: Electoral College Results 2020, not presidential race, nor election results, but just the outdated Electoral College. Anyhow, this is what counts in the US system, not the election results themselves. My prediction: Trump will have his second term.

And hopefully, I am wrong, last time I was wrong, Trump became president, so what do I know......


Why is it outdated? It's actually timeless in the way it gives every state in the union a voice not just NY and CA.
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Aaron747
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Re: Predictions on Electoral College Results 2020

Wed May 20, 2020 12:33 pm

NIKV69 wrote:
Dutchy wrote:
I love the title: Electoral College Results 2020, not presidential race, nor election results, but just the outdated Electoral College. Anyhow, this is what counts in the US system, not the election results themselves. My prediction: Trump will have his second term.

And hopefully, I am wrong, last time I was wrong, Trump became president, so what do I know......


Why is it outdated? It's actually timeless in the way it gives every state in the union a voice not just NY and CA.


That's a smidge of a misrepresentation since it's mostly purple states on the current population leaderboard. Facts:

1. CA
2. TX
3. FL
4. NY
5. PA
6. IL
7. OH
8. GA
9. NC
10. MI
If you need someone to blame / throw a rock in the air / you'll hit someone guilty
 
tommy1808
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Re: Predictions on Electoral College Results 2020

Wed May 20, 2020 12:56 pm

Aaron747 wrote:
NIKV69 wrote:
Dutchy wrote:
I love the title: Electoral College Results 2020, not presidential race, nor election results, but just the outdated Electoral College. Anyhow, this is what counts in the US system, not the election results themselves. My prediction: Trump will have his second term.

And hopefully, I am wrong, last time I was wrong, Trump became president, so what do I know......


Why is it outdated? It's actually timeless in the way it gives every state in the union a voice not just NY and CA.


That's a smidge of a misrepresentation since it's mostly purple states on the current population leaderboard. Facts:

1. CA
2. TX
3. FL
4. NY
5. PA
6. IL
7. OH
8. GA
9. NC
10. MI


We should start a betting pool how quick the GOP will find the EC outdated and in desperate need for an overhaul if Democrats ever start scoring in small red states.

Best regards
Thomas
Well, there is prophecy in the bible after all: 2 Timothy 3:1-6
 
NIKV69
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Re: Predictions on Electoral College Results 2020

Wed May 20, 2020 1:14 pm

Aaron747 wrote:
NIKV69 wrote:
Dutchy wrote:
I love the title: Electoral College Results 2020, not presidential race, nor election results, but just the outdated Electoral College. Anyhow, this is what counts in the US system, not the election results themselves. My prediction: Trump will have his second term.

And hopefully, I am wrong, last time I was wrong, Trump became president, so what do I know......


Why is it outdated? It's actually timeless in the way it gives every state in the union a voice not just NY and CA.


That's a smidge of a misrepresentation since it's mostly purple states on the current population leaderboard. Facts:

1. CA
2. TX
3. FL
4. NY
5. PA
6. IL
7. OH
8. GA
9. NC
10. MI


CA and NY are purple? Really?
I am the Googlizer!!!
 
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Aaron747
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Re: Predictions on Electoral College Results 2020

Wed May 20, 2020 1:34 pm

NIKV69 wrote:
Aaron747 wrote:
NIKV69 wrote:

Why is it outdated? It's actually timeless in the way it gives every state in the union a voice not just NY and CA.


That's a smidge of a misrepresentation since it's mostly purple states on the current population leaderboard. Facts:

1. CA
2. TX
3. FL
4. NY
5. PA
6. IL
7. OH
8. GA
9. NC
10. MI


CA and NY are purple? Really?


Perhaps you need to re-read. Keyword: mostly..as in 7/10. Or have a coffee, wake up, then re-read. :coffee:
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einsteinboricua
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Re: Predictions on Electoral College Results 2020

Wed May 20, 2020 2:01 pm

tommy1808 wrote:
We should start a betting pool how quick the GOP will find the EC outdated and in desperate need for an overhaul if Democrats ever start scoring in small red states.

Nope. Not when they score small red states; when TX becomes really purple (like AZ looks right now). At the loss of TX as a reliable red state (reliable as in having always voted for GOP since 2000), the next biggest reliable state is GA (currently at 16 EC votes), and even GA looks a bit shaky if it starts showing purple hues. The next biggest reliable state would be AZ (but something tells me it's already purple) so TN would be next on the list, with 11 EC votes.

If TX goes blue, the GOP is screwed as they'd lose their biggest single state. They'd have to hope to run up the margin in FL and PA to make up for that. But if Democrats take TX, then they're surely taking PA, MI, and WI. With current trends continuing where TX and AZ are receiving an influx of Hispanics (which the GOP has had no interest in courting) and from expensive states like NY, CT, and CA, the politics will spill over and overtake the conservative streak in them. FL may be the GOP's only hope to keep a big red state, but even then, a single misstep with seniors could result in the state voting blue.

So yeah...once TX enters tossup/lean D territory, I'll see the GOP clamoring for the EC to be abolished because they will likely be effectively shut out from ever winning a presidential election again.
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Aaron747
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Re: Predictions on Electoral College Results 2020

Wed May 20, 2020 3:01 pm

einsteinboricua wrote:
tommy1808 wrote:
We should start a betting pool how quick the GOP will find the EC outdated and in desperate need for an overhaul if Democrats ever start scoring in small red states.

Nope. Not when they score small red states; when TX becomes really purple (like AZ looks right now). At the loss of TX as a reliable red state (reliable as in having always voted for GOP since 2000), the next biggest reliable state is GA (currently at 16 EC votes), and even GA looks a bit shaky if it starts showing purple hues. The next biggest reliable state would be AZ (but something tells me it's already purple) so TN would be next on the list, with 11 EC votes.

If TX goes blue, the GOP is screwed as they'd lose their biggest single state. They'd have to hope to run up the margin in FL and PA to make up for that. But if Democrats take TX, then they're surely taking PA, MI, and WI. With current trends continuing where TX and AZ are receiving an influx of Hispanics (which the GOP has had no interest in courting) and from expensive states like NY, CT, and CA, the politics will spill over and overtake the conservative streak in them. FL may be the GOP's only hope to keep a big red state, but even then, a single misstep with seniors could result in the state voting blue.

So yeah...once TX enters tossup/lean D territory, I'll see the GOP clamoring for the EC to be abolished because they will likely be effectively shut out from ever winning a presidential election again.


The trending is not good for them already with suburban slides in AZ, TX, PA, MI, KY, VA, WA and GA since 45’s election. The GOP is lucky they have mostly held onto suburban areas in NC and FL.

An interesting case study here from a Never Trump former GOP party chair in WA:

That national Republican suburban collapse is driving politics here too. Since Trump became the face of the GOP, Republicans have lost 12 seats in Olympia, and one seat in Congress, all from suburban districts. That is likely to continue next year. The GOP is already extinct in the King County suburbs, but all the districts along the I-5 corridor, other than downtown Bellingham, Everett, Olympia, Seattle, and Vancouver, are suburban districts, and they are at risk now. Even seats in suburban Spokane are in play. In all, there are ten Republican House seats, and five state Senate seats up next year that could flip. And then will come redistricting in 2022 which will drive more seats into urban areas. Washington state Republicans are on a path to irrelevancy.

https://www.postalley.org/2019/11/11/tr ... king-fast/
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ER757
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Re: Predictions on Electoral College Results 2020

Wed May 20, 2020 3:54 pm

NIKV69 wrote:
Dutchy wrote:
I love the title: Electoral College Results 2020, not presidential race, nor election results, but just the outdated Electoral College. Anyhow, this is what counts in the US system, not the election results themselves. My prediction: Trump will have his second term.

And hopefully, I am wrong, last time I was wrong, Trump became president, so what do I know......


Why is it outdated? It's actually timeless in the way it gives every state in the union a voice not just NY and CA.

I'll provide an example for you - my brother is a staunch Republican. He lives in California. His vote for POTUS doesn't count. If we are going to keep the EC, the electors should be allocated by percentage rather than winner take all. If the R candidate gets 35% of the vote in California for example, then 35% or the electoral votes should go to the R candidate.
 
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einsteinboricua
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Re: Predictions on Electoral College Results 2020

Wed May 20, 2020 4:32 pm

NIKV69 wrote:
It's actually timeless in the way it gives every state in the union a voice not just NY and CA.

What is your definition of "giving a voice"? Because while every state is given EC votes, it seems that they're not equally weighted against each other (so some "voices" are louder than others), and only a few of them are highly sought after. Oh, CA and NY should not determine the election...well, on the other side of the spectrum, you have the Dakotas, and WY, and AK...4 states whose votes no one cares about and whose votes are insignificant. The GOP takes them for granted because they're already in their column and Democrats know they'll never flip them. Meanwhile, OH, FL, and PA are bombed with ads (none of those are small states).

The 11 largest states will represent a collective total of 270 EC votes and over 55% of the population. If current trends continue and those 11 states all vote for the same party (and under WTA rules), the election is decided, no matter who the other states vote for or what margin they do. Those 11 states will shut out the small states, and shut out the voters who did not vote with the majority. Given that TX and GA are giving hints of becoming more competitive, and that NC, FL, PA, and OH are not a lock for either party, it's not out of the realm of possibility seeing all 11 states voting for the same candidate eventually.
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winginit
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Re: Predictions on Electoral College Results 2020

Wed May 20, 2020 4:54 pm

NIKV69 wrote:
Dutchy wrote:
I love the title: Electoral College Results 2020, not presidential race, nor election results, but just the outdated Electoral College. Anyhow, this is what counts in the US system, not the election results themselves. My prediction: Trump will have his second term.

And hopefully, I am wrong, last time I was wrong, Trump became president, so what do I know......


Why is it outdated? It's actually timeless in the way it gives every state in the union a voice not just NY and CA.


Oh stop. In practice what it does is simply shift the voices that count from population centers (you know, where the people live) to a handful of swing states. It's equally unfair.

Demographic shifts tell us that at some point we'll very likely have a scenario where the electoral college starts burning Republicans... badly, and it will be very fun to watch them lose their minds and suddenly cry for change as our president once did
 
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Aaron747
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Re: Predictions on Electoral College Results 2020

Wed May 20, 2020 5:09 pm

winginit wrote:
NIKV69 wrote:
Dutchy wrote:
I love the title: Electoral College Results 2020, not presidential race, nor election results, but just the outdated Electoral College. Anyhow, this is what counts in the US system, not the election results themselves. My prediction: Trump will have his second term.

And hopefully, I am wrong, last time I was wrong, Trump became president, so what do I know......


Why is it outdated? It's actually timeless in the way it gives every state in the union a voice not just NY and CA.


Oh stop. In practice what it does is simply shift the voices that count from population centers (you know, where the people live) to a handful of swing states. It's equally unfair.

Demographic shifts tell us that at some point we'll very likely have a scenario where the electoral college starts burning Republicans... badly, and it will be very fun to watch them lose their minds and suddenly cry for change as our president once did


To extrapolate further on the population point, since it’s “all about the economy”, the EC gives a lot of voting power to places that hardly produce GDP. The top 20 metropolitan areas generate 52% of US GDP, and if you include midsized cities of 150K or more, that swells to over 80% of GDP.

https://www.mckinsey.com/featured-insig ... al-economy

https://www.visualcapitalist.com/this-s ... n-by-city/

Contrast this map with the areas that typically vote red and you’ll find a massive gulf in economic contribution.

Image
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rfields5421
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Re: Predictions on Electoral College Results 2020

Wed May 20, 2020 5:13 pm

The Electoral College will not change in the US until one party can control 39 different state legislatures, and 67 seats in the US Senate.

Even then, the problems if instituting a nationwide voting system will be much greater than the issues caused by the EC.

The United States is very much 50 individual ways of doing things, loosely bound to a federal system. Such things as voting, where to vote, who can vote where and when - are all controlled by the individual states. In fact it is down to the local city or county government level. The root level of politics that people can impact on a personal local level, and yet no one ever cares. They waste time and millions of words arguing on the 'big' picture, and never doing anything where they can have a personal impact.
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rfields5421
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Re: Predictions on Electoral College Results 2020

Wed May 20, 2020 5:20 pm

ER757 wrote:
If we are going to keep the EC, the electors should be allocated by percentage rather than winner take all.


There is currently a case before the US Supreme Court over the ability of a state to REQUIRE that once a person is selected as an Elector - that the person actually vote according to the popular vote within the state. It will be interesting to see how the court decides.

Are electors STATE officials, bound by 51 difference state & DC laws? or are they individuals given power by the Constitution to vote as they see fit?
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einsteinboricua
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Re: Predictions on Electoral College Results 2020

Wed May 20, 2020 5:21 pm

rfields5421 wrote:
The Electoral College will not change in the US until one party can control 39 different state legislatures, and 67 seats in the US Senate.

The NPVIC seeks to get around that. It keeps the EC in place while states pledged their vote to the popular vote winner. And since the Constitution explicitly authorizes states to "appoint electors as their legislatures may direct", no lawsuit will be effective.

The real question is the case that the SCOTUS is considering: whether electors that have pledged to vote as the state tells them to can switch their vote and then face no penalty for it (and this can be discussed in a separate thread).
"You haven't seen a tree until you've seen its shadow from the sky."
 
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Aaron747
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Re: Predictions on Electoral College Results 2020

Wed May 20, 2020 5:23 pm

rfields5421 wrote:
The United States is very much 50 individual ways of doing things, loosely bound to a federal system. Such things as voting, where to vote, who can vote where and when - are all controlled by the individual states. In fact it is down to the local city or county government level. The root level of politics that people can impact on a personal local level, and yet no one ever cares. They waste time and millions of words arguing on the 'big' picture, and never doing anything where they can have a personal impact.


So very true. A lot of Americans who are either cynical or feel unheard would simply be happier if they got involved in their community and worked to effect change right where they live.
If you need someone to blame / throw a rock in the air / you'll hit someone guilty
 
winginit
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Re: Predictions on Electoral College Results 2020

Wed May 20, 2020 5:46 pm

rfields5421 wrote:
The Electoral College will not change in the US until one party can control 39 different state legislatures, and 67 seats in the US Senate.

Even then, the problems if instituting a nationwide voting system will be much greater than the issues caused by the EC.


Not necessarily. There's already a trend that's slowly gained traction over the years where electoral college votes are distributed in proportion of the popular vote. That could be somewhat widely adopted well before a single party controls 39 legislatures and 67 senate seats.
 
rfields5421
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Re: Predictions on Electoral College Results 2020

Wed May 20, 2020 8:51 pm

winginit wrote:
rfields5421 wrote:
The Electoral College will not change in the US until one party can control 39 different state legislatures, and 67 seats in the US Senate.

Even then, the problems if instituting a nationwide voting system will be much greater than the issues caused by the EC.


Not necessarily. There's already a trend that's slowly gained traction over the years where electoral college votes are distributed in proportion of the popular vote. That could be somewhat widely adopted well before a single party controls 39 legislatures and 67 senate seats.


Yes, states making changes to the apportionment of electors can be done at the STATE level.

Maine does not have a proportion of the popular vote - two electors are selected for the state winner, and the other two electors are selected based upon the popular vote within the individual congressional district. A near 50/50 state popular vote will almost always wind up with three electors for one candidate and one for the other.

Nebraska, the only other state without winner take all, also selects two electors for the state wide winner, and one elector for each of three congressional districts. The few times one district has gained enough votes to go 'for' the Democratic candidate, the start results is 4 Republican electors, 1 Democratic elector - a 80/20 split in a state wide vote of 56.53% vs 41.60% (2008).

But it can be changed without a constitutional amendment at the state level to somewhat represent more accurately the vote of the people.

However, the problem is the state legislatures - Nebraska has been trying to change their system back to winner take all.

CA - 61.73% Dem / 31.62% Rep - 55 Electoral votes for Clinton - on the Congressional district system - 48 EV Clinton, 7 EV Trump
TX - 52.23% Rep / 43.24% Dem - 38 Electoral votes for Trump - on the Congressional district system - 13 EV Clinton, 25 EV Trump
FL - 49.02% Rep / 47.82% Dem - 29 Electoral votes for Trump - on the Congressional district system - 13 EV Clinton, 16 EV Trump
NY - 59.01% Dem/ 36.52% Rep - 29 Electoral votes for Clinton - on the Congressional district system - 20 EV Clinton, 9 EV Trump
PA - 48.18% Rep / 47.46% Dem - 20 Electoral votes for Trump - on the Congressional district system - 6 EV Clinton, 14 EV Trump
IL - 55.83% Dem / 38.76% Rep - 20 Electoral votes for Clinton - on the Congressional district system - 13 EB Clinton - 7 EV Trump

That is the six most populous states - three won by Trump, three won by Clinton

The net was 87 EV for Trump, 104 EV for Clinton

The Congressional district system such as Maine and Nebraska have would have been"

78 EV for Trump, 113 EV for Clinton - it would be interesting to take the available information out to cover all 50 states and DC, but I need more time, and something better than one laptop with a smallish screen.
Not all who wander are lost.
 
NIKV69
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Re: Predictions on Electoral College Results 2020

Wed May 20, 2020 9:04 pm

Aaron747 wrote:
NIKV69 wrote:
Aaron747 wrote:

That's a smidge of a misrepresentation since it's mostly purple states on the current population leaderboard. Facts:

1. CA
2. TX
3. FL
4. NY
5. PA
6. IL
7. OH
8. GA
9. NC
10. MI


CA and NY are purple? Really?


Perhaps you need to re-read. Keyword: mostly..as in 7/10. Or have a coffee, wake up, then re-read. :coffee:


I did read it and it was a passive aggressive way to try to make us think that CA and NY wouldn't basically be picking our presidents if we went to the popular vote. Thankfully we will never do that.
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Ken777
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Re: Predictions on Electoral College Results 2020

Wed May 20, 2020 9:08 pm

The EC has turned into a sham, an embarrassment for democracy. It was written by "Founders" who also included Slavery and Women's Suffrage.

Until we go to a straight National Vote our democracy will continue to be at risk.
 
Eyad89
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Re: Predictions on Electoral College Results 2020

Wed May 20, 2020 11:02 pm

Cadet985 wrote:
Despite being a Republican, I don’t make a final decision until the debates. That said, Biden scares me. He’s a smart man, a dedicated public servant but his age and his gaffes concern me — and yes, I know Trump has had his fair share of gaffes.

That said, it may also come down to — for me — who Biden picks as his running mate. Harris and Warren too far left for me. Whitmer would guarantee he loses Michigan and probably the other swing states. I might be interested if he picked Gabbard, but Biden has a major strike against him in my book. The minute he promised to make a female his running mate, I feel he broke equal opportunity laws. That meant that he wasn’t even going to consider a male for the role. If I owned a business and said that I’m only hiring men or only hiring women, I could be slapped with a lawsuit.

So IMHO, if he picks Whitmer, Trump should thank him immediately.

In terms of the EC, I don’t know what to predict. I do think the EC may again go to the candidate who doesn’t necessarily win the popular vote, and that will lead for calls for the EC to be abolished, and I really don’t feel that’s the answer. A full popular vote definitely isn’t the answer, but I’m not educated enough to come up with another idea.

Marc


What about Val Demings? The fact that she’s a Floridian is a plus. I think she’s one of the strongest choices.
 
Eyad89
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Re: Predictions on Electoral College Results 2020

Wed May 20, 2020 11:08 pm

Ken777 wrote:
The EC has turned into a sham, an embarrassment for democracy. It was written by "Founders" who also included Slavery and Women's Suffrage.

Until we go to a straight National Vote our democracy will continue to be at risk.



Better yet, you can win the presidency if you only get 22% of the popular vote, thanks to the Electoral College.

This article explains it.

Links: https://www.cgpgrey.com/blog/the-troubl ... llege.html
 
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Aaron747
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Re: Predictions on Electoral College Results 2020

Thu May 21, 2020 12:08 am

NIKV69 wrote:
Aaron747 wrote:
NIKV69 wrote:

CA and NY are purple? Really?


Perhaps you need to re-read. Keyword: mostly..as in 7/10. Or have a coffee, wake up, then re-read. :coffee:


I did read it and it was a passive aggressive way to try to make us think that CA and NY wouldn't basically be picking our presidents if we went to the popular vote. Thankfully we will never do that.


Even that is still wrong because the list of states provided has 140 million in population. NY and CA comprise 60 million of that - you do the math. Not a majority.
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zakuivcustom
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Re: Predictions on Electoral College Results 2020

Thu May 21, 2020 12:17 am

Eyad89 wrote:
Ken777 wrote:
The EC has turned into a sham, an embarrassment for democracy. It was written by "Founders" who also included Slavery and Women's Suffrage.

Until we go to a straight National Vote our democracy will continue to be at risk.



Better yet, you can win the presidency if you only get 22% of the popular vote, thanks to the Electoral College.

This article explains it.

Links: https://www.cgpgrey.com/blog/the-troubl ... llege.html


The larger problem with EC is that a few states decided elections.

Flip MI and PA and it is already 268-270.

One more state like WI and it will be President Hillary right now.

That's something like 8.65% of US population, or 1 in ~11.5 people.

The campaign spending inbalance is ridiculous anyway. Eastern Midwest? Lots of money. FL? Lots of money. Texas and Cal? Nobody cares.

BTW...my prediction:
https://www.270towin.com/maps/8xP9A.png
 
tommy1808
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Re: Predictions on Electoral College Results 2020

Thu May 21, 2020 4:36 am

zakuivcustom wrote:
Eyad89 wrote:
Ken777 wrote:
The EC has turned into a sham, an embarrassment for democracy. It was written by "Founders" who also included Slavery and Women's Suffrage.

Until we go to a straight National Vote our democracy will continue to be at risk.


The campaign spending inbalance is ridiculous anyway. Eastern Midwest? Lots of money. FL? Lots of money. Texas and Cal? Nobody cares.


Not to forget McConnell buying his Senate seat with almost net 10.000 USD in federal spending for every citizen he has.
And 800 bucks/month will buy you a lot of votes. And whomever wants to pass anything has to buy Mitch.

Image
Source: https://taxfoundation.org/federal-aid-r ... -rankings/

Seems without gerrymandering and bribes Republicans can't win. At least they seem to be sure they can't.

Best regards
Thomas
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AA747123
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Re: Predictions on Electoral College Results 2020

Thu May 21, 2020 4:13 pm

Overall the economy is still very strong. I do not see Biden coming anywhere close to a victory. Tump will easily win in a huge landslide both popular vote and electoral college. I see a sea of red.
 
apodino
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Re: Predictions on Electoral College Results 2020

Thu May 21, 2020 7:17 pm

It's too early to really see anything concrete. However there are troubling signs for Trump.

1. The Senior vote is going more and more towards Biden. This will come into play in Florida big time, and it will also hurt Trump in Arizona. I think this is due to Trump caring more about opening the economy than on effective policy dealing with Coronavirus. If this perception is true, Arizona is gone, and Florida may be gone as well.

2. While Trump has always polled better on the economy, recent poling shows him neck and neck on this. If this is within the margin of error on Election Day, it will be very bad for Trump.

3. COVID-19 has taken Biden off the campaign trail and allowed him to hideout. This has allowed Trump basically to make a fool out of himself and thus people are flocking to the other guy. As long as we don't see Biden, he cant make any gaffes, and that hurts Trump.

And some good signs for Trump as well.

1. Biden polls badly with young voters. This is a key democratic demographic and if the polling is true that Young voters wont support Biden, it won't help Biden at all. These are the Sanders voters, and Bernie himself realizes this with trying to tell his people to support Biden and having his delegates sign agreements not to attack Biden or the establishment.

2. The Tara Reade story is not going away despite numerous attempts to make it so, including a smear piece from Politico.

3. Trump is polling near 40 percent among Latinos. The democrats always figured the Latino's would tilt almost heavily in their favor, yet Biden is making no inroads into this community, while Trump runs Spanish language campaign ads targeting this community.


So its tough to tell right now. One wildcard in this is in Michigan and Pennsylvania, you have Democratic governors who have shut the state down, and people protesting to go back to work in both states. This dynamic could shift voters toward the Republican column. Wisconsin is similar, although the way the GOP led Assembly has handled things there may tilt it back blue. So if the election were held today, my prediction would be that Florida, Wisconsin and Arizona go blue, and Michigan and Pennsylvania stay Red. That would mean Biden would get the oval office.

One other thing I wanted to talk about is the Senate Races. I think the Democrats are going to take the Senate back. I predict Thom Tillis is defeated in North Carolina based on him being the fall guy for the Richard Burr scandal. I also predict that Mark Kelly will easily beat Martha McSallay in AZ (This would happen no matter how popular the guy at the top of the ticket is). That is two flips. I also think Mitch McConnell is more vulnerable in KY than people realize. The question is who are the democrats going to run. The DC establishment favors Amy McGrath, but the local democratic party in KY favors Charles Booker, and Booker has gotten endorsements from every prominent Democrat in KY pretty much. So this is my sleeper race. Assuming no other flips. that gets you to 50-50 where either Pence or Biden's running mate breaks the tie. I do think Susan Collins will hang on in Maine, as her opponent Sara Gideon is being hurt by the Tara Reade scandal. (Basically, her whole campaign against Collins is the Kavanaugh vote, and now the hypocrisy of believing Ford and not Reade has been pointed out not just by republicans, but by people on the left as well who want a different nominee in the race). Another race is in Georgia where David Perdue is in trouble against Jon Ossoff because of a stock deal he accepted while on a corporate board before they went public. That is for the full six years. In the other Georgia Race, Kelly Loeffler is done, and I don't even think she makes the runoff between Doug Collins and likely Raphael Warnock. That seat will stay red though. And we haven't even gotten to Colorado yet where Cory Gardner is in big trouble, Montana is in play, and Kansas will be in play if Kris Kobach is the nominee. There is no way the GOP holds the senate.
 
zakuivcustom
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Re: Predictions on Electoral College Results 2020

Thu May 21, 2020 9:02 pm

apodino wrote:
It's too early to really see anything concrete. However there are troubling signs for Trump.

1. The Senior vote is going more and more towards Biden. This will come into play in Florida big time, and it will also hurt Trump in Arizona. I think this is due to Trump caring more about opening the economy than on effective policy dealing with Coronavirus. If this perception is true, Arizona is gone, and Florida may be gone as well.

2. While Trump has always polled better on the economy, recent poling shows him neck and neck on this. If this is within the margin of error on Election Day, it will be very bad for Trump.

3. COVID-19 has taken Biden off the campaign trail and allowed him to hideout. This has allowed Trump basically to make a fool out of himself and thus people are flocking to the other guy. As long as we don't see Biden, he cant make any gaffes, and that hurts Trump.

And some good signs for Trump as well.

1. Biden polls badly with young voters. This is a key democratic demographic and if the polling is true that Young voters wont support Biden, it won't help Biden at all. These are the Sanders voters, and Bernie himself realizes this with trying to tell his people to support Biden and having his delegates sign agreements not to attack Biden or the establishment.

2. The Tara Reade story is not going away despite numerous attempts to make it so, including a smear piece from Politico.

3. Trump is polling near 40 percent among Latinos. The democrats always figured the Latino's would tilt almost heavily in their favor, yet Biden is making no inroads into this community, while Trump runs Spanish language campaign ads targeting this community.


So its tough to tell right now. One wildcard in this is in Michigan and Pennsylvania, you have Democratic governors who have shut the state down, and people protesting to go back to work in both states. This dynamic could shift voters toward the Republican column. Wisconsin is similar, although the way the GOP led Assembly has handled things there may tilt it back blue. So if the election were held today, my prediction would be that Florida, Wisconsin and Arizona go blue, and Michigan and Pennsylvania stay Red. That would mean Biden would get the oval office.

One other thing I wanted to talk about is the Senate Races. I think the Democrats are going to take the Senate back. I predict Thom Tillis is defeated in North Carolina based on him being the fall guy for the Richard Burr scandal. I also predict that Mark Kelly will easily beat Martha McSallay in AZ (This would happen no matter how popular the guy at the top of the ticket is). That is two flips. I also think Mitch McConnell is more vulnerable in KY than people realize. The question is who are the democrats going to run. The DC establishment favors Amy McGrath, but the local democratic party in KY favors Charles Booker, and Booker has gotten endorsements from every prominent Democrat in KY pretty much. So this is my sleeper race. Assuming no other flips. that gets you to 50-50 where either Pence or Biden's running mate breaks the tie. I do think Susan Collins will hang on in Maine, as her opponent Sara Gideon is being hurt by the Tara Reade scandal. (Basically, her whole campaign against Collins is the Kavanaugh vote, and now the hypocrisy of believing Ford and not Reade has been pointed out not just by republicans, but by people on the left as well who want a different nominee in the race). Another race is in Georgia where David Perdue is in trouble against Jon Ossoff because of a stock deal he accepted while on a corporate board before they went public. That is for the full six years. In the other Georgia Race, Kelly Loeffler is done, and I don't even think she makes the runoff between Doug Collins and likely Raphael Warnock. That seat will stay red though. And we haven't even gotten to Colorado yet where Cory Gardner is in big trouble, Montana is in play, and Kansas will be in play if Kris Kobach is the nominee. There is no way the GOP holds the senate.


As far as Senate goes...

The quick pick would be D picking up CO and AZ but losing AL, that makes it 48-52.

Collins is vulnerable. If she lose, that's 49-51.

This leave NC, which is 50-50 as to who will win.

Of course, there is wildcard like Moscow Mitch and Kansas (If Kobach is the nominee, it could create a Doug Jones situation where D take advantage).
 
LCDFlight
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Re: Predictions on Electoral College Results 2020

Sat May 23, 2020 10:35 pm

I think, if states like Michigan are even in play, you have to assume Trump wins them.

The Russia probe and COVID lockdowns have been unattractive to swing voters. Biden is a poor candidate.

The fact we are even questioning who will win against Donald Trump tells you how incompetent and unimpressive the Democrats are.
 
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hvusslax
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Re: Predictions on Electoral College Results 2020

Sun May 24, 2020 9:38 am

D:334 R:204
 
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Re: Predictions on Electoral College Results 2020

Sun May 24, 2020 10:46 am

It's May and the scale of the Coronavirus human and economic toll is only beginning to unfold so I wouldn't consider any current prediction reliable but here are two scenarios I can see happening (that is, scenarios I would hope to see happening, obviously there are plenty of models in which Trump could still make it).

I call this one "cautious optimism", where Biden fails to regain PA but succeeds in Michigan (Whitmer still has a net positive approval rating there), Arizona, and NC (Cooper, a Democrat has a pretty high approval and maybe the scandal around Burr's insider trading could rub off on Trump). I could see this scenario trigger some nasty, nasty recount battles specifically in NC if Biden were to win it with a narrow margin. The NCGOP has repeatedly proven their absolute contempt for democratic norms in recent years.
Image


The other one shall be called "Trump breakdown" and I could see it occurring if the crisis intensifies, maybe a few strong outbreaks in red rural states putting the overall death toll to at least 200,000 or even 300,000 in late October together with dozens of millions unemployed. Old voters turn away in FL and AZ, the remaining white suburban support collapses in TX and GA, workers in the rust belt (at least PA, MI and potentially WI) abandon Trump in droves and Biden's legacy as Obama's VP even puts some dents in deep red states of the Black belt. Only the very core heartland and the upper plains remain solidly red.
Image
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DL717
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Re: Predictions on Electoral College Results 2020

Sat May 30, 2020 6:19 am

NIKV69 wrote:
Aaron747 wrote:
NIKV69 wrote:

Why is it outdated? It's actually timeless in the way it gives every state in the union a voice not just NY and CA.


That's a smidge of a misrepresentation since it's mostly purple states on the current population leaderboard. Facts:

1. CA
2. TX
3. FL
4. NY
5. PA
6. IL
7. OH
8. GA
9. NC
10. MI


CA and NY are purple? Really?


Maybe colorblind in the blue/purple spectrum.
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Aaron747
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Re: Predictions on Electoral College Results 2020

Sat May 30, 2020 6:36 am

DL717 wrote:
NIKV69 wrote:
Aaron747 wrote:

That's a smidge of a misrepresentation since it's mostly purple states on the current population leaderboard. Facts:

1. CA
2. TX
3. FL
4. NY
5. PA
6. IL
7. OH
8. GA
9. NC
10. MI


CA and NY are purple? Really?


Maybe colorblind in the blue/purple spectrum.


Come on dude, 7 out of 10 is majority purple. Basic math. Please tell me which states other than CA, NY and IL are comfortably blue?
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