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Jalap
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - June 2020

Sun Jun 07, 2020 8:14 pm

airhansa wrote:
In most countries the left-wing would support the Swedish-style "liberal" approach, whereas the right-wing would support the Chinese-style "authoritarian" approach with closed borders.

What brings you to this conclusion?
I don't see this reflected anywhere... .
In fact, I don't think left/right doesn't make any difference in approach. It's hard to check anyway, since most countries I'm familiar with have a rather centrist government.
Being populist or not does seem to have an influence.
 
Ishrion
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - June 2020

Mon Jun 08, 2020 3:51 am

 
UpNAWAy
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - June 2020

Mon Jun 08, 2020 6:43 pm

And we shut down the world for nothing!

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/06/08/asympto ... -says.html

It was a giant political theatrical farce!
 
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casinterest
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - June 2020

Mon Jun 08, 2020 6:45 pm

UpNAWAy wrote:
And we shut down the world for nothing!

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/06/08/asympto ... -says.html

It was a giant political theatrical farce!


Did you read the article?

To be sure, asymptomatic and presymptomatic spread of the virus appears to still be happening, Van Kerkhove said but remains rare. That finding has important implications for how to screen for the virus and limit its spread.


Key words are still screening.
Where ever you go, there you are.
 
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casinterest
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - June 2020

Mon Jun 08, 2020 7:27 pm

Texas hospitals are now at Record levels of hospitalizations for Covid-19

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/06/08/texas-r ... early.html

Texas reported a record number of coronavirus hospitalizations Monday — weeks after Gov. Greg Abbott took the lead among governors in easing social distancing measures across to help bring jobs back.

There are currently 1,935 Covid-19 patients in hospitals across the state, topping the previous hospitalization record of 1,888 patients on May 5, according to new data from the Texas Department of State Health Services.


North Carolina as well.

https://abc11.com/health/latest-revampe ... y/6236952/

North Carolina hit a record high of hospitalizations with 739 people currently in the hospital with severe COVID-19 symptoms. To date, 25% of hospital inpatient beds and 14% of intensive care unit beds are available, with 77% percent of hospitals in the state reporting.


Both have room in the hospitals, but with the rates increasing, how close will we get to full and how soon?
Where ever you go, there you are.
 
flyguy89
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - June 2020

Mon Jun 08, 2020 11:40 pm

casinterest wrote:
Both have room in the hospitals, but with the rates increasing, how close will we get to full and how soon?

As long as there's slack in hospital capacity...that's what flattening the curve was all about, pacing out infections to avoid hospital capacity constraints.
 
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casinterest
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - June 2020

Tue Jun 09, 2020 12:55 am

flyguy89 wrote:
casinterest wrote:
Both have room in the hospitals, but with the rates increasing, how close will we get to full and how soon?

As long as there's slack in hospital capacity...that's what flattening the curve was all about, pacing out infections to avoid hospital capacity constraints.


No doubt, but the "Phase 2" openings have been restrained. When sporting events, bars, and gyms open in NC, all hell could break lose quickly.

Either way, it will be interesting to see how the summer plays out.
Where ever you go, there you are.
 
KFTG
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - June 2020

Tue Jun 09, 2020 5:01 am

60% of CVN-71 crew tested positive for SARS-COV-2 antibodies.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QGL98r1R4BY
 
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DIRECTFLT
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - June 2020

Tue Jun 09, 2020 5:25 am

BEWARE the toilet plume ! ! ! Commercial building's toilets can flush with a mighty swirl.

https://www.yahoo.com/news/public-bathr ... 00949.html
Smoothest Ride so far ~ AA A300B4-600R ~~ Favorite Aviation Author ~ Robert J. Serling
 
KFTG
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - June 2020

Tue Jun 09, 2020 6:01 am

DIRECTFLT wrote:
BEWARE the toilet plume ! ! ! Commercial building's toilets can flush with a mighty swirl.

https://www.yahoo.com/news/public-bathr ... 00949.html

Love me some fear porn!
 
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zkojq
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - June 2020

Tue Jun 09, 2020 1:23 pm

Aaron747 wrote:
Where is AirWorthy? As predicted, Sweden’s top epidemiologist has contritely admitted he was wrong as deaths continue to mount there.

https://twitter.com/drericding/status/1 ... 90017?s=21


Credit where credit is due: at least they're admitting they were wrong, rather than trying to cover it up or manipulate statistics to try and make the situation look less awful.

casinterest wrote:
Same populations.
Sweden:

40803 Cases (probably well undercounted)
4542 dead.

North Carolina:
30419 cases
969 deaths.


Social distancing works folks, and NC is a lot more dense than Sweden.


Those numbers are brutal. Ouch.

casinterest wrote:
Petty politics have already screwed over social distancing. The most effective treatment known to date.


It's interesting how the narrative has changed. A few weeks ago, many of our other participants in these threads were saying that Social Distancing is ineffective and that legislative measures to enforce it should be dismantled because they were apparently far too aggressive. But now that the BLM protests have begun it would seem that those people now believe that Social Distancing A) works, B) is very effective and C) should be enforced aggressively. Curious. :lol:

bgm wrote:
And now Brazil has stopped publishing its total cases/deaths, because.... *checks notes*.... "the cumulative data did not reflect the current picture", Bolsonaro claims. :sarcastic:


Hmmm reminds me of Boris making the Ministry Of Health publish international comparisons every day of the pandemic, right up to the day when the UK's death rate became worse than the rest of Europe's before mysteriously dropping it.

Ishrion wrote:


Tuesday was the first day with the country completely free of the virus. There are no COVID19 restrictions at all for day-to-day life other than the borders being closed to foreign non-residents and an enforced two week quarantine at a government secured facility.

Very good news for the economy. I have to say that although things have been relatively normal for a week or so (other than a few things like limits on group sizes and social distancing on public transport) it's really surreal how everything is calm and serene here whilst the rest of the world is still in a panic struggling to contain it.
First to fly the 787-9
 
IgorD
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - June 2020

Tue Jun 09, 2020 1:45 pm

Interesting Dutch numbers about COVID cases in health care personnel https://www.nd.nl/nieuws/varia/976482/b ... -opgelopen
Some 17k people got diagnosed with corona, of which some 3% developed heavy symptoms warranting hospitalization. From those 17k diagnosed, 11 died, which implies infection mortality rate of less than 0,1% for not too old population of people working in the health care. The youngest death is at the age of 45 and the oldest is at the age of 69. 7 of the 11 who died had previous medical conditions.
 
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bgm
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - June 2020

Tue Jun 09, 2020 2:07 pm

casinterest wrote:
Texas hospitals are now at Record levels of hospitalizations for Covid-19

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/06/08/texas-r ... early.html

Texas reported a record number of coronavirus hospitalizations Monday — weeks after Gov. Greg Abbott took the lead among governors in easing social distancing measures across to help bring jobs back.

There are currently 1,935 Covid-19 patients in hospitals across the state, topping the previous hospitalization record of 1,888 patients on May 5, according to new data from the Texas Department of State Health Services.


North Carolina as well.

https://abc11.com/health/latest-revampe ... y/6236952/

North Carolina hit a record high of hospitalizations with 739 people currently in the hospital with severe COVID-19 symptoms. To date, 25% of hospital inpatient beds and 14% of intensive care unit beds are available, with 77% percent of hospitals in the state reporting.


Both have room in the hospitals, but with the rates increasing, how close will we get to full and how soon?


If only they'd had some kind of warning that this might happen... :spin:
If you hate wearing a mask, you’re really going to hate using a ventilator.
 
Jalap
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - June 2020

Tue Jun 09, 2020 11:36 pm

IgorD wrote:
Interesting Dutch numbers about COVID cases in health care personnel https://www.nd.nl/nieuws/varia/976482/b ... -opgelopen
Some 17k people got diagnosed with corona, of which some 3% developed heavy symptoms warranting hospitalization. From those 17k diagnosed, 11 died, which implies infection mortality rate of less than 0,1% for not too old population of people working in the health care. The youngest death is at the age of 45 and the oldest is at the age of 69. 7 of the 11 who died had previous medical conditions.

It is a bit odd that there's 17k health care personnel tested positive with 47k people in the Netherlands in total tested positive. So about 35% of the Dutch cases are health care personnel!

According to https://www.worldometers.info/coronavir ... ographics/ 25% of Covid deaths are in the age group 18-64 years old.
This number is clearly wrong. Probably because many countries didn't/don't count elderly deaths as covid-deaths.
In Belgium, 5% of the covid deaths are under 65. In the Netherlands is seems to be even less.

Still, I'm not sure what to read into this. We always know it was far more dangerous for the elderly, yet the factor age seems to be even larger than assumed.
Did some number crunching for Belgium, based on an assumed flat 7% infection rate and the official population age stats:
Mortality rate for 65+ is 5%
Mortality rate for younger is 0,1%
 
Dieuwer
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - June 2020

Wed Jun 10, 2020 12:08 am

Ishrion wrote:


That’s a big claim.
COVID-19 could be dormant somewhere, spreading asymptomatically until it hits a vulnerable population again...and BANG! Off we go!
 
LittleFokker
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - June 2020

Wed Jun 10, 2020 12:15 am

UpNAWAy wrote:
And we shut down the world for nothing!

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/06/08/asympto ... -says.html

It was a giant political theatrical farce!


Here's a very important clarification and update to said bit of news. Asymptomatic transmission is still a very real element of this virus:

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/hea ... 325282002/
"All human activities are doomed to failure." - Jean Paul Sartre
 
Dieuwer
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - June 2020

Wed Jun 10, 2020 12:21 am

So Texas cases are rising most likely because of the Memorial Day Bacchanal, but Europeans were no saints either during Pentecost Week:
https://www.cnn.com/travel/article/beac ... index.html

So unless this virus is specifically targeting Texan genome (yeah right), or Texas is testing way more than average, Europe should also see a second wave surge about right now.
 
Toenga
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - June 2020

Wed Jun 10, 2020 12:29 am

Covid virus has an extremly limited viability out side a host. The average normal covid infective period is about 14 days, the covid cycle.
It is only a minority of people who remain asymptomatic during the whole period of their infection <10%. Lockdown controls have resulted in transmission rates of less then one. For New Zealand the last known rogue, or community transmission was over 42 days ago, so three normal transmission periods. The chances of this being followed by a chain of three further asymptomatic transmissions, without revealing a single symptomatic transmission is now very small.
The danger is our border. New Zealanders are still returning, and airline, border, and quarantine staff still have to interact with them.
 
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casinterest
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - June 2020

Wed Jun 10, 2020 2:19 am

Dieuwer wrote:
So Texas cases are rising most likely because of the Memorial Day Bacchanal, but Europeans were no saints either during Pentecost Week:
https://www.cnn.com/travel/article/beac ... index.html

So unless this virus is specifically targeting Texan genome (yeah right), or Texas is testing way more than average, Europe should also see a second wave surge about right now.


Texas opened up a bit earlier than Memorial Day. It is taking a bit of time as most are trying hard to social distance. The real test comes when businesses can no longer survive on 50% capacity or no capacity.
Where ever you go, there you are.
 
StarAC17
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - June 2020

Wed Jun 10, 2020 4:06 am

DIRECTFLT wrote:
BEWARE the toilet plume ! ! ! Commercial building's toilets can flush with a mighty swirl.

https://www.yahoo.com/news/public-bathr ... 00949.html


I swear when I read some of these articles there are some infectious disease specialists and epidemiologists that basically want all of us to live in a bubble (literally). We have to deal with microbes and covid19 is not some superbug that is not any more durable in nature than any other virus.

Although I will say that many of those sanitation practices are pretty common sense at least to me.

I read this doozy the other day.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/06/05/health/w ... index.html

Anyone have enjoyable sex without making out and using your mouth for other sexual activities. 8-) .

If your are going to get any during this pandemic especially with a new partner or someone who have been doing it with but is not living with you then you are taking the risk of getting Covid.
Engineers Rule The World!!!!!
 
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scbriml
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - June 2020

Wed Jun 10, 2020 7:56 am

zkojq wrote:
Hmmm reminds me of Boris making the Ministry Of Health publish international comparisons every day of the pandemic, right up to the day when the UK's death rate became worse than the rest of Europe's before mysteriously dropping it.


Or setting testing targets (100,000 per day by end April) and 'making it' on 30th April. But wait, the number of tests claimed included some (IIRC) 40k tests that were posted out to people who may or may not actually send the tests back in. :spin:

Then setting another testing target of 200,000 per day by end May. Then half way though May change the target to have the capacity to conduct 200,000 tests per day without reporting the number of tests actually conducted. :banghead:

The UK government has managed to lose the support of large swathes of the public because of their lying ineptitude. Capped for most of us by their unwavering support for the human turd that is Dominic Cummings and his lockdown busting drive from one end of the country to the other. I actually complained to my Tory MP about the government's support of Cummings and quickly received a very long reply (which I'm certain was a copy & paste job) outlining in great detail why what he did was OK. I suspect the reply was drafted by Cummings himself!

Or implementing a 14-day self-isolation quarantine for all arrivals into the UK (some exemptions) which most appreciate is totally unenforceable despite the threat of £1,000 fine. The government admitted that border officials have no way of validating information provided by passengers on the form, nor the manpower to actually carry out the threatened 'random checks'.

Apologies, rant over. I'm going to lay down in a darkened room now. :irked:
Time flies like an arrow. Fruit flies like a banana!
There are 10 types of people in the World - those that understand binary and those that don't.
 
IgorD
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - June 2020

Wed Jun 10, 2020 10:42 am

Jalap wrote:
It is a bit odd that there's 17k health care personnel tested positive with 47k people in the Netherlands in total tested positive. So about 35% of the Dutch cases are health care personnel!

Still, I'm not sure what to read into this. We always know it was far more dangerous for the elderly, yet the factor age seems to be even larger than assumed.
Did some number crunching for Belgium, based on an assumed flat 7% infection rate and the official population age stats:
Mortality rate for 65+ is 5%
Mortality rate for younger is 0,1%


Haha, that's a funny conclusion. The truth is that for quite some time the testing was available only to the medical personnel. And the numbers reflect that.
Good news is that the virus is hardly dangerous for the working age population.

On the mortality side, we have some 6k confirmed deaths, the excess deaths are some 10k, so there are some 4k deaths that could be attributed to the virus, but are not confirmed. Given the current estimate of 7% attack rate for the netherlands (1200k people), the total death rate should be slightly less than 1%.
 
Dieuwer
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - June 2020

Wed Jun 10, 2020 12:52 pm

casinterest wrote:
Dieuwer wrote:
So Texas cases are rising most likely because of the Memorial Day Bacchanal, but Europeans were no saints either during Pentecost Week:
https://www.cnn.com/travel/article/beac ... index.html

So unless this virus is specifically targeting Texan genome (yeah right), or Texas is testing way more than average, Europe should also see a second wave surge about right now.


Texas opened up a bit earlier than Memorial Day. It is taking a bit of time as most are trying hard to social distance. The real test comes when businesses can no longer survive on 50% capacity or no capacity.


If Texas is simply ahead of the others by a couple of weeks, then we should see other areas/countries spike by the end of June.
 
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casinterest
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - June 2020

Wed Jun 10, 2020 12:55 pm

Dieuwer wrote:
casinterest wrote:
Dieuwer wrote:
So Texas cases are rising most likely because of the Memorial Day Bacchanal, but Europeans were no saints either during Pentecost Week:
https://www.cnn.com/travel/article/beac ... index.html

So unless this virus is specifically targeting Texan genome (yeah right), or Texas is testing way more than average, Europe should also see a second wave surge about right now.


Texas opened up a bit earlier than Memorial Day. It is taking a bit of time as most are trying hard to social distance. The real test comes when businesses can no longer survive on 50% capacity or no capacity.


If Texas is simply ahead of the others by a couple of weeks, then we should see other areas/countries spike by the end of June.

Depending on the degree of opening and the adherence of people to social distancing yes.


If we go by the assumption that everything was as socially distanced as it could get a few weeks ago, then the numbers will continue to rise. Texas, Florida, North Carolina and many others will show that trend. New York may be the biggest test as they opened a bit yesterday. Their public transit and close quarters will be the major canary in the coal mine in about 3 weeks time.
Where ever you go, there you are.
 
tommy1808
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - June 2020

Wed Jun 10, 2020 1:01 pm

Dieuwer wrote:
So Texas cases are rising most likely because of the Memorial Day Bacchanal, but Europeans were no saints either during Pentecost Week:
https://www.cnn.com/travel/article/beac ... index.html

So unless this virus is specifically targeting Texan genome (yeah right), or Texas is testing way more than average, Europe should also see a second wave surge about right now.


Or Civil obedience is better. Those CNN pictures look pretty distancing compatible.

And with transmission rate depressed quite a bit below one, there is also quite the headroom before you go back into exponential growth and a surge. Going from 0.7 to 1, no problem, going from 1 to 1.3, instant ticket to herd immunity. With a pile of bodies.

Best regards
Thomas
Well, there is prophecy in the bible after all: 2 Timothy 3:1-6
 
Dieuwer
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - June 2020

Wed Jun 10, 2020 1:06 pm

tommy1808 wrote:
Dieuwer wrote:
So Texas cases are rising most likely because of the Memorial Day Bacchanal, but Europeans were no saints either during Pentecost Week:
https://www.cnn.com/travel/article/beac ... index.html

So unless this virus is specifically targeting Texan genome (yeah right), or Texas is testing way more than average, Europe should also see a second wave surge about right now.


Or Civil obedience is better. Those CNN pictures look pretty distancing compatible.

And with transmission rate depressed quite a bit below one, there is also quite the headroom before you go back into exponential growth and a surge. Going from 0.7 to 1, no problem, going from 1 to 1.3, instant ticket to herd immunity. With a pile of bodies.

Best regards
Thomas


Like in Germany you mean:

German New Cases Rise, Infection Rate Stays Above Key Threshold


R= 1.11

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... -threshold
 
tommy1808
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - June 2020

Wed Jun 10, 2020 1:26 pm

Dieuwer wrote:
tommy1808 wrote:
Dieuwer wrote:
So Texas cases are rising most likely because of the Memorial Day Bacchanal, but Europeans were no saints either during Pentecost Week:
https://www.cnn.com/travel/article/beac ... index.html

So unless this virus is specifically targeting Texan genome (yeah right), or Texas is testing way more than average, Europe should also see a second wave surge about right now.


Or Civil obedience is better. Those CNN pictures look pretty distancing compatible.

And with transmission rate depressed quite a bit below one, there is also quite the headroom before you go back into exponential growth and a surge. Going from 0.7 to 1, no problem, going from 1 to 1.3, instant ticket to herd immunity. With a pile of bodies.

Best regards
Thomas


Like in Germany you mean:

German New Cases Rise, Infection Rate Stays Above Key Threshold


R= 1.11

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... -threshold


your source wrote:
The RKI also provides a seven-day R-value, which compensates for fluctuations. That value was 0.87 on Monday, down from 0.92 the previous day.


We had post contact restrictions peaks of 1.2, those peaks are caused by local spreader events, and are addressed by local restrictions on top of the whole people know where they live, what the current situation is and when to be more careful.

Best regards
Thomas
Well, there is prophecy in the bible after all: 2 Timothy 3:1-6
 
GDB
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - June 2020

Wed Jun 10, 2020 5:31 pm

scbriml wrote:
zkojq wrote:
Hmmm reminds me of Boris making the Ministry Of Health publish international comparisons every day of the pandemic, right up to the day when the UK's death rate became worse than the rest of Europe's before mysteriously dropping it.


Or setting testing targets (100,000 per day by end April) and 'making it' on 30th April. But wait, the number of tests claimed included some (IIRC) 40k tests that were posted out to people who may or may not actually send the tests back in. :spin:

Then setting another testing target of 200,000 per day by end May. Then half way though May change the target to have the capacity to conduct 200,000 tests per day without reporting the number of tests actually conducted. :banghead:

The UK government has managed to lose the support of large swathes of the public because of their lying ineptitude. Capped for most of us by their unwavering support for the human turd that is Dominic Cummings and his lockdown busting drive from one end of the country to the other. I actually complained to my Tory MP about the government's support of Cummings and quickly received a very long reply (which I'm certain was a copy & paste job) outlining in great detail why what he did was OK. I suspect the reply was drafted by Cummings himself!

Or implementing a 14-day self-isolation quarantine for all arrivals into the UK (some exemptions) which most appreciate is totally unenforceable despite the threat of £1,000 fine. The government admitted that border officials have no way of validating information provided by passengers on the form, nor the manpower to actually carry out the threatened 'random checks'.

Apologies, rant over. I'm going to lay down in a darkened room now. :irked:


Quite understandable, here's what you said in song form;
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bNEMxeI6-rE

Best I don't comment on that shower, it would read like a script meeting for 'The Thick Of It', 'Veep' and 'Succession' combined and I'd get deleted.

Though in the stupidity Top 'Trumps' guess who struck again, the US President visited a facility making swabs in Maine, a huge need for them, flat out production. Only he chose to be the only one there (for the photo op) NOT wearing a mask in this clean facility. So that day's whole production had to be junked.
Go on Trumpists, defend that.
 
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zkojq
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - June 2020

Thu Jun 11, 2020 2:18 am

Dieuwer wrote:
Ishrion wrote:


That’s a big claim.
COVID-19 could be dormant somewhere, spreading asymptomatically until it hits a vulnerable population again...and BANG! Off we go!


Given that noone has been diagnosed with it for twenty days now and given that you will get tested if you exhibit any of the symptoms, that would seem unlikely.

The main threat now is New Zealand residents returning from overseas and New Zealand aircrew who don't have to quarantine (but are confined to their hotel rooms when overseas).
First to fly the 787-9
 
Dieuwer
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - June 2020

Thu Jun 11, 2020 2:28 pm

zkojq wrote:
Dieuwer wrote:
Ishrion wrote:


That’s a big claim.
COVID-19 could be dormant somewhere, spreading asymptomatically until it hits a vulnerable population again...and BANG! Off we go!


Given that noone has been diagnosed with it for twenty days now and given that you will get tested if you exhibit any of the symptoms, that would seem unlikely.

The main threat now is New Zealand residents returning from overseas and New Zealand aircrew who don't have to quarantine (but are confined to their hotel rooms when overseas).


Then the only conclusion must be the COVID-19 dies out by itself if you simply stop the spread. The claim that it can live on some hidden surface "forever" is clearly false.
 
dtw2hyd
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - June 2020

Thu Jun 11, 2020 4:46 pm

Dieuwer wrote:
Ishrion wrote:


That’s a big claim.
COVID-19 could be dormant somewhere, spreading asymptomatically until it hits a vulnerable population again...and BANG! Off we go!


At least New Zealand appears to have put decent effort in controlling unlike several countries making bold claims without doing anything.

India is the worst example(not knowing the deal with China). From claims of having total control to total chaos and government completely gave up.

Even within US both CDC and some states were/are falsely counting anti-body tests as PCR tests. Who are they trying to fool. Number of active cases is alarmingly high, this late in the game.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/
All posts are just opinions.
 
Dieuwer
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - June 2020

Thu Jun 11, 2020 5:09 pm

More proof Texax, Utah data is suspect.
Simply look at the "New Reported Cases" and compare it to the graph below of "New Reported Deaths".

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/202 ... cases.html

The graphs should follow the same tendency as "Death" is simply a fraction of "Cases". Now, you see that the "Cases" graph is surging to new heights while the "Death" graph is stable or even dropping a little.
Sorry, but this is mathematically NOT possible.There is some serious data fraud going on here.
 
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casinterest
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - June 2020

Thu Jun 11, 2020 5:22 pm

Dieuwer wrote:
More proof Texax, Utah data is suspect.
Simply look at the "New Reported Cases" and compare it to the graph below of "New Reported Deaths".

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/202 ... cases.html

The graphs should follow the same tendency as "Death" is simply a fraction of "Cases". Now, you see that the "Cases" graph is surging to new heights while the "Death" graph is stable or even dropping a little.
Sorry, but this is mathematically NOT possible.There is some serious data fraud going on here.



Deaths are a trailing trend. If we don't see death's tick up in the near future, then we will know something is suspect. or it could be massive testing, but data indicates Texas and Florida are getting worse.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/usa/texas/
https://txdshs.maps.arcgis.com/apps/ops ... 101f(Check the hosptializations tab)
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/usa/florida/
https://www.news4jax.com/news/florida/2 ... p-to-date/

Georgia is the most suspect to me though. Their charts have a lot of very crazy issues hidden.
Where ever you go, there you are.
 
Dieuwer
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - June 2020

Thu Jun 11, 2020 5:28 pm

casinterest wrote:
Dieuwer wrote:
More proof Texax, Utah data is suspect.
Simply look at the "New Reported Cases" and compare it to the graph below of "New Reported Deaths".

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/202 ... cases.html

The graphs should follow the same tendency as "Death" is simply a fraction of "Cases". Now, you see that the "Cases" graph is surging to new heights while the "Death" graph is stable or even dropping a little.
Sorry, but this is mathematically NOT possible.There is some serious data fraud going on here.



Deaths are a trailing trend. If we don't see death's tick up in the near future, then we will know something is suspect. or it could be massive testing, but data indicates Texas and Florida are getting worse.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/usa/texas/
https://txdshs.maps.arcgis.com/apps/ops ... 101f(Check the hosptializations tab)
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/usa/florida/
https://www.news4jax.com/news/florida/2 ... p-to-date/

Georgia is the most suspect to me though. Their charts have a lot of very crazy issues hidden.


I don't see much wrong with the Georgia data?

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/202 ... cases.html

The only states that seem to do a decent job are the ones in the NorthEast.
 
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Aesma
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - June 2020

Thu Jun 11, 2020 7:35 pm

Well the stock markets seem to think there is a second wave in the US. Thanks to these idiots in Texas my portfolio dropped 10%, even though it has no US content in it (and thus hadn't surged back to the top like US markets), and we still have plenty of restrictions here in France.

A few pictures of "packed" beaches taken with a telephoto lens don't tell the whole story. When I go to the supermarket wearing a mask is mandatory, I get hydroalcoholic gel put on my hands, if I go to work I have to wear a mask the whole day, so I'm continuing with telework. You need a form from your employer to have the right to take the metro in Paris... Restaurants are still closed, cinemas, theaters, concert venues too.
New Technology is the name we give to stuff that doesn't work yet. Douglas Adams
 
Toenga
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - June 2020

Fri Jun 12, 2020 2:02 am

Dieuwer wrote:
zkojq wrote:
Dieuwer wrote:

That’s a big claim.
COVID-19 could be dormant somewhere, spreading asymptomatically until it hits a vulnerable population again...and BANG! Off we go!


Given that noone has been diagnosed with it for twenty days now and given that you will get tested if you exhibit any of the symptoms, that would seem unlikely.

The main threat now is New Zealand residents returning from overseas and New Zealand aircrew who don't have to quarantine (but are confined to their hotel rooms when overseas).


Then the only conclusion must be the COVID-19 dies out by itself if you simply stop the spread. The claim that it can live on some hidden surface "forever" is clearly false.


Both elimination and flatten the curve strategies, can be summarised as depending on breaking the chain of human to human transmission. Early on it was realised that decontaminating schools was best achieved at least cost, and least risk to the cleaners, by just leaving them empty for a period, that was actually not that long.
 
Dieuwer
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - June 2020

Fri Jun 12, 2020 5:34 pm

Arizona data look like a rocket ship. They now have 10x as many new daily cases as they had back in March/April.
 
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casinterest
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - June 2020

Fri Jun 12, 2020 5:36 pm

Dieuwer wrote:
Arizona data look like a rocket ship. They now have 10x as many new daily cases as they had back in March/April.

NC,Texas and Florida are on a tall trajectory as well.
Where ever you go, there you are.
 
Dieuwer
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - June 2020

Fri Jun 12, 2020 5:38 pm

casinterest wrote:
Dieuwer wrote:
Arizona data look like a rocket ship. They now have 10x as many new daily cases as they had back in March/April.

NC,Texas and Florida are on a tall trajectory as well.


The Northeast should immediately ban all travel originating from these hot spots.
 
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casinterest
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - June 2020

Fri Jun 12, 2020 5:42 pm

Dieuwer wrote:
casinterest wrote:
Dieuwer wrote:
Arizona data look like a rocket ship. They now have 10x as many new daily cases as they had back in March/April.

NC,Texas and Florida are on a tall trajectory as well.


The Northeast should immediately ban all travel originating from these hot spots.



Why? They are opening up as well. The same issue will persist there. At some point a degree of reopening has to happen, and that is what Texas, Florida, NC , AZ and others all did. I argued that they all should have waited till June 1 , but oh well. Anyway here we are, and the cases are going up. We need to see if Phase 2 will slow down or Plateau, or if some of the openings need to be rolled back, but at this point even the North East is on the same trajectory.
Where ever you go, there you are.
 
Dieuwer
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - June 2020

Fri Jun 12, 2020 5:43 pm

casinterest wrote:
Dieuwer wrote:
casinterest wrote:
NC,Texas and Florida are on a tall trajectory as well.


The Northeast should immediately ban all travel originating from these hot spots.



Why? They are opening up as well. The same issue will persist there. At some point a degree of reopening has to happen, and that is what Texas, Florida, NC , AZ and others all did. I argued that they all should have waited till June 1 , but oh well. Anyway here we are, and the cases are going up. We need to see if Phase 2 will slow down or Plateau, or if some of the openings need to be rolled back, but at this point even the North East is on the same trajectory.


No the Northeast is not on the same trajectory. The cases and deaths here are dropping, just like in Europe.
 
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casinterest
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - June 2020

Fri Jun 12, 2020 5:49 pm

Dieuwer wrote:
casinterest wrote:
Dieuwer wrote:

The Northeast should immediately ban all travel originating from these hot spots.



Why? They are opening up as well. The same issue will persist there. At some point a degree of reopening has to happen, and that is what Texas, Florida, NC , AZ and others all did. I argued that they all should have waited till June 1 , but oh well. Anyway here we are, and the cases are going up. We need to see if Phase 2 will slow down or Plateau, or if some of the openings need to be rolled back, but at this point even the North East is on the same trajectory.


No the Northeast is not on the same trajectory. The cases and deaths here are dropping, just like in Europe.



Except the Northeast has entered Phase 2. In two to three weeks we will see a turn in NY and NJ regardless back to more cases.
Every bit of reopening allows this disease to spread further and quicker, unless there is enough immunity, or vaccines.

There are still less deaths( for now ) per day in NC, AZ, FL, TX than there still are in NY and NJ.

is that because of testing, or are we still on the leading edge(probably) of hospitalization and deaths in the rising states ?
Where ever you go, there you are.
 
Dieuwer
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - June 2020

Fri Jun 12, 2020 5:51 pm

casinterest wrote:
Dieuwer wrote:
casinterest wrote:


Why? They are opening up as well. The same issue will persist there. At some point a degree of reopening has to happen, and that is what Texas, Florida, NC , AZ and others all did. I argued that they all should have waited till June 1 , but oh well. Anyway here we are, and the cases are going up. We need to see if Phase 2 will slow down or Plateau, or if some of the openings need to be rolled back, but at this point even the North East is on the same trajectory.


No the Northeast is not on the same trajectory. The cases and deaths here are dropping, just like in Europe.



Except the Northeast has entered Phase 2. In two to three weeks we will see a turn in NY and NJ regardless back to more cases.
Every bit of reopening allows this disease to spread further and quicker, unless there is enough immunity, or vaccines.

There are still less deaths( for now ) per day in NC, AZ, FL, TX than there still are in NY and NJ.

is that because of testing, or are we still on the leading edge(probably) of hospitalization and deaths in the rising states ?


The big difference is that AZ, FL, NC, TX all have opened-up with people doing whatever they want (Ozark-style), whereas in the Northeast it has opened-up somewhat but people still wear face masks and social distance.
 
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casinterest
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - June 2020

Fri Jun 12, 2020 5:54 pm

Dieuwer wrote:
casinterest wrote:
Dieuwer wrote:

No the Northeast is not on the same trajectory. The cases and deaths here are dropping, just like in Europe.



Except the Northeast has entered Phase 2. In two to three weeks we will see a turn in NY and NJ regardless back to more cases.
Every bit of reopening allows this disease to spread further and quicker, unless there is enough immunity, or vaccines.

There are still less deaths( for now ) per day in NC, AZ, FL, TX than there still are in NY and NJ.

is that because of testing, or are we still on the leading edge(probably) of hospitalization and deaths in the rising states ?


The big difference is that AZ, FL, NC, TX all have opened-up with people doing whatever they want (Ozark-style), whereas in the Northeast it has opened -up somewhat but people still wear face masks and social distance.


They haven't opened up Ozark style. People are for the most part social distancing. There are just certain areas where people aren't caring so much and are more worried about working to survive( poverty) and the virus is running rampant.
You will see the same in the North east. Especially now that 5-15% already had it.
Where ever you go, there you are.
 
Dieuwer
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - June 2020

Fri Jun 12, 2020 5:56 pm

casinterest wrote:
You will see the same in the North east. Especially now that 5-15% already had it.


Assertion. Not fact.
 
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casinterest
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - June 2020

Fri Jun 12, 2020 6:15 pm

Dieuwer wrote:
casinterest wrote:
You will see the same in the North east. Especially now that 5-15% already had it.


Assertion. Not fact.



It's Math, not an Assertion. Everything about Social Distancing is about keeping people out of contact with each other. Loosening the restrictions creates by necessity more interactions. Businesses open,. people make transactions, people need kids in Child Care, more people get sick.
Where ever you go, there you are.
 
Dieuwer
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - June 2020

Fri Jun 12, 2020 6:24 pm

casinterest wrote:
Dieuwer wrote:
casinterest wrote:
You will see the same in the North east. Especially now that 5-15% already had it.


Assertion. Not fact.



It's Math, not an Assertion. Everything about Social Distancing is about keeping people out of contact with each other. Loosening the restrictions creates by necessity more interactions. Businesses open,. people make transactions, people need kids in Child Care, more people get sick.


Actually, I just had a look at the 7-day moving average of new cases in Sweden. It looks the same as the one of Arizona, Florida, etc.
Perhaps the conclusion should be that if you clamped down hard in the beginning (like New Zealand), you successfully "beat" the virus, whereas if you used a soft touch and opened early (or never really closed in the first place) you will experience continued rising cases.
Last edited by Dieuwer on Fri Jun 12, 2020 6:32 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
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casinterest
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - June 2020

Fri Jun 12, 2020 6:30 pm

Dieuwer wrote:
casinterest wrote:
Dieuwer wrote:

Assertion. Not fact.



It's Math, not an Assertion. Everything about Social Distancing is about keeping people out of contact with each other. Loosening the restrictions creates by necessity more interactions. Businesses open,. people make transactions, people need kids in Child Care, more people get sick.


By that same token, you would expect a rise in European cases as well. But we haven't seen that (yet).


If the openings are as they were in NC, I would expect to see them having rising cases in the next 5-10 days. keep on eye on the French numbers. They reopened on June 2.
Where ever you go, there you are.
 
Dieuwer
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - June 2020

Fri Jun 12, 2020 6:38 pm

Apart from Brazil, India, and Russia, it seems that Mexico is another disaster (thousands of new cases per day!). Just imagine hoards of Americans coming back from a Mexican summer vacation...
 
lowwkjax
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - June 2020

Fri Jun 12, 2020 7:57 pm

Please keep in mind that while we are talking about “thousands of new cases”, the percentage is still quite low. Mexico for example today has a growth rate of between 3 and 4%, and if you think back to Europe, countries there saw a growth rate of 30, 40, some even 50%. I am from Austria and I still remember our officials when they said that our numbers dropped to 3% new infections rate, it was almost like something we could celebrate. And today we’re considered one of those who handled the situation very well.

I know the absolute number “4,000” sounds bad, but you also have to look at the percentage which makes it less bad. Cautious? Yes. Panic? No.

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