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TSS
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - June 2020

Sat Jun 27, 2020 5:30 am

One first-person account of coronavirus from YouTuber Brandon Herrera:

I Have COVID-19. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dnQpA2ZfaGc
Able to kill active threads stone dead with a single post!
 
Derico
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - June 2020

Sat Jun 27, 2020 8:31 am

It almost seems as if the current generations in the USA cannot take even a little bit of inconvenience, let alone sacrifice, in their lives (excluding those who have military service or combat behind them or engage in voluntary or philanthropical work). I look around the world and to be honest, almost all other countries in some form are willing to take more pain or burden to get through the crisis (by supporting extreme lockdowns, or from strict compliance with epidemic prevention rules, or by supporting with higher taxes more robust and inclusive health care systems.. or in the case of the poorest countries simply by staying a little more at home, which for day to day workers is an extremely risky proposition).

It's like "I want everything open for MY convenience, and I will neither wear masks nor social distance, and I will go to the bar or beach to meet my buddies and enjoy life, and yeah screw grandma and the nurses and doctors, and btw I won't pay extra emergency taxes to strengthen the health care system". I have been trying to defend the behavior of western people in front of non-westerners recently, but boy this makes it tough not to agree with them that we are selfish, undisciplined, and just simply dumber or short-sighted. Thankfully most of Europe and some other isolated places in Oceania and South America still give me ammunition to show that people can comply and understand the situation.
My internet was not shut down, the internet has shut me down
 
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scbriml
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - June 2020

Sat Jun 27, 2020 10:00 am

As Covid-19 cases hit record numbers in America, Mike Pence praises "remarkable progress". :spin:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-53188289

Image
https://i.imgur.com/Si5D4TE.png

Also Mike Pence: "We flattened the curve"
Image
Source: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/
Time flies like an arrow. Fruit flies like a banana!
There are 10 types of people in the World - those that understand binary and those that don't.
 
GDB
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - June 2020

Sat Jun 27, 2020 12:12 pm

scbriml wrote:
Meanwhile, in the UK (or to be more precise, England)...

Government:
Image
(c)BBC.co.uk & https://imgur.com/bGXcHFB

English public two days later:
Image
(c)Huw Evan Agency

Also English public:
Image
(c)theguardian.com

I'm ashamed. :banghead:

I see America has now had it's highest daily total of new cases. Expect a significant uptick in deaths in a few days. UK will follow based on above images.
Image
Image from https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/


Alexander dePeffiel Boris Johnson called for a 'return to bustle'. He got it.
And while there is no excuse for some recent events on beaches, in cities, the example set by himself in defending his 'brain', that vile creep Cummings, as well as confused messaging more recently, what did they expect?
 
LCDFlight
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - June 2020

Sat Jun 27, 2020 1:45 pm

Derico wrote:
It almost seems as if the current generations in the USA cannot take even a little bit of inconvenience, let alone sacrifice, in their lives (excluding those who have military service or combat behind them or engage in voluntary or philanthropical work). I look around the world and to be honest, almost all other countries in some form are willing to take more pain or burden to get through the crisis (by supporting extreme lockdowns, or from strict compliance with epidemic prevention rules, or by supporting with higher taxes more robust and inclusive health care systems.. or in the case of the poorest countries simply by staying a little more at home, which for day to day workers is an extremely risky proposition).

It's like "I want everything open for MY convenience, and I will neither wear masks nor social distance, and I will go to the bar or beach to meet my buddies and enjoy life, and yeah screw grandma and the nurses and doctors, and btw I won't pay extra emergency taxes to strengthen the health care system". I have been trying to defend the behavior of western people in front of non-westerners recently, but boy this makes it tough not to agree with them that we are selfish, undisciplined, and just simply dumber or short-sighted. Thankfully most of Europe and some other isolated places in Oceania and South America still give me ammunition to show that people can comply and understand the situation.


The US spent $5 trillion and probably also will lose another $5 trillion due to this slowdown / disemployment / throwing people into the gutter. If a person makes around $1 million in their working life, that is 10 million lives that we spent on mitigation.

You call that "not even a little bit of inconvenience?" 10 million working lives?

We have absolutely stepped up, at agonizing cost. Just because you don't feel it, because you are not poor, nor a major taxpayer apparently, does not mean we haven't stepped up.

As of this week, death counts in the US are still down week over week, continuing a trend since early May. The narrative of the news media that COVID-19 is increasing is not significantly supported by data. It is an emotional / commercial response by the news media to increase their revenue. It's all about money to them. If it were about truth, they would be saying good news, the death count is still going down, which is a good proxy for hospital admissions and ICU usage. All down. The infection count remains unknown. CDC just this week said, "eh, infection count may be 10x higher." They don't know. It hasn't been studied.
 
tommy1808
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - June 2020

Sun Jun 28, 2020 7:56 am

LCDFlight wrote:
Derico wrote:
It almost seems as if the current generations in the USA cannot take even a little bit of inconvenience, let alone sacrifice, in their lives (excluding those who have military service or combat behind them or engage in voluntary or philanthropical work). I look around the world and to be honest, almost all other countries in some form are willing to take more pain or burden to get through the crisis (by supporting extreme lockdowns, or from strict compliance with epidemic prevention rules, or by supporting with higher taxes more robust and inclusive health care systems.. or in the case of the poorest countries simply by staying a little more at home, which for day to day workers is an extremely risky proposition).

It's like "I want everything open for MY convenience, and I will neither wear masks nor social distance, and I will go to the bar or beach to meet my buddies and enjoy life, and yeah screw grandma and the nurses and doctors, and btw I won't pay extra emergency taxes to strengthen the health care system". I have been trying to defend the behavior of western people in front of non-westerners recently, but boy this makes it tough not to agree with them that we are selfish, undisciplined, and just simply dumber or short-sighted. Thankfully most of Europe and some other isolated places in Oceania and South America still give me ammunition to show that people can comply and understand the situation.


The US spent $5 trillion and probably also will lose another $5 trillion due to this slowdown / disemployment / throwing people into the gutter. If a person makes around $1 million in their working life, that is 10 million lives that we spent on mitigation.

You call that "not even a little bit of inconvenience?" 10 million working lives?


I guess spending your grandchildrens money is a lot less inconvenient than putting a mask on.

Best regards
Thomas
Well, there is prophecy in the bible after all: 2 Timothy 3:1-6
 
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Aaron747
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - June 2020

Sun Jun 28, 2020 12:55 pm

LCDFlight wrote:
Derico wrote:
It almost seems as if the current generations in the USA cannot take even a little bit of inconvenience, let alone sacrifice, in their lives (excluding those who have military service or combat behind them or engage in voluntary or philanthropical work). I look around the world and to be honest, almost all other countries in some form are willing to take more pain or burden to get through the crisis (by supporting extreme lockdowns, or from strict compliance with epidemic prevention rules, or by supporting with higher taxes more robust and inclusive health care systems.. or in the case of the poorest countries simply by staying a little more at home, which for day to day workers is an extremely risky proposition).

It's like "I want everything open for MY convenience, and I will neither wear masks nor social distance, and I will go to the bar or beach to meet my buddies and enjoy life, and yeah screw grandma and the nurses and doctors, and btw I won't pay extra emergency taxes to strengthen the health care system". I have been trying to defend the behavior of western people in front of non-westerners recently, but boy this makes it tough not to agree with them that we are selfish, undisciplined, and just simply dumber or short-sighted. Thankfully most of Europe and some other isolated places in Oceania and South America still give me ammunition to show that people can comply and understand the situation.


The US spent $5 trillion and probably also will lose another $5 trillion due to this slowdown / disemployment / throwing people into the gutter. If a person makes around $1 million in their working life, that is 10 million lives that we spent on mitigation.

You call that "not even a little bit of inconvenience?" 10 million working lives?

We have absolutely stepped up, at agonizing cost. Just because you don't feel it, because you are not poor, nor a major taxpayer apparently, does not mean we haven't stepped up.

As of this week, death counts in the US are still down week over week, continuing a trend since early May. The narrative of the news media that COVID-19 is increasing is not significantly supported by data. It is an emotional / commercial response by the news media to increase their revenue. It's all about money to them. If it were about truth, they would be saying good news, the death count is still going down, which is a good proxy for hospital admissions and ICU usage. All down. The infection count remains unknown. CDC just this week said, "eh, infection count may be 10x higher." They don't know. It hasn't been studied.


Epidemiologists posting all over the internet must be looking at different data than you. :crazy:
If you need someone to blame / throw a rock in the air / you'll hit someone guilty
 
LCDFlight
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - June 2020

Sun Jun 28, 2020 1:33 pm

Aaron747 wrote:
LCDFlight wrote:
Derico wrote:
It almost seems as if the current generations in the USA cannot take even a little bit of inconvenience, let alone sacrifice, in their lives (excluding those who have military service or combat behind them or engage in voluntary or philanthropical work). I look around the world and to be honest, almost all other countries in some form are willing to take more pain or burden to get through the crisis (by supporting extreme lockdowns, or from strict compliance with epidemic prevention rules, or by supporting with higher taxes more robust and inclusive health care systems.. or in the case of the poorest countries simply by staying a little more at home, which for day to day workers is an extremely risky proposition).

It's like "I want everything open for MY convenience, and I will neither wear masks nor social distance, and I will go to the bar or beach to meet my buddies and enjoy life, and yeah screw grandma and the nurses and doctors, and btw I won't pay extra emergency taxes to strengthen the health care system". I have been trying to defend the behavior of western people in front of non-westerners recently, but boy this makes it tough not to agree with them that we are selfish, undisciplined, and just simply dumber or short-sighted. Thankfully most of Europe and some other isolated places in Oceania and South America still give me ammunition to show that people can comply and understand the situation.


The US spent $5 trillion and probably also will lose another $5 trillion due to this slowdown / disemployment / throwing people into the gutter. If a person makes around $1 million in their working life, that is 10 million lives that we spent on mitigation.

You call that "not even a little bit of inconvenience?" 10 million working lives?

We have absolutely stepped up, at agonizing cost. Just because you don't feel it, because you are not poor, nor a major taxpayer apparently, does not mean we haven't stepped up.

As of this week, death counts in the US are still down week over week, continuing a trend since early May. The narrative of the news media that COVID-19 is increasing is not significantly supported by data. It is an emotional / commercial response by the news media to increase their revenue. It's all about money to them. If it were about truth, they would be saying good news, the death count is still going down, which is a good proxy for hospital admissions and ICU usage. All down. The infection count remains unknown. CDC just this week said, "eh, infection count may be 10x higher." They don't know. It hasn't been studied.


Epidemiologists posting all over the internet must be looking at different data than you. :crazy:


They are talking about "case counts." Early on, we all agreed that increased testing was a goal. We now are achieving that goal. We are testing more people. This does not imply more people have COVID, or more people will die - in fact, the week over week death trends continue downward. Please use Google. This only requires high school math.

The fact nearly everybody "disagrees" with these facts only shows that someone (likely a media managing editor) is filling them with false information. The hypothesis that COVID is increasing quickly, while deaths are falling, is not just unproven... it is implausible, or as they say in the field, a "perverse and spurious" view.

But, I always appreciate the chance to have a conversation
 
frmrCapCadet
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - June 2020

Sun Jun 28, 2020 3:31 pm

LCD - we arranged for our great grand children to pay several $trillion. (The lack of seeing what is in front of their faces is what astounds.)
Buffet: the airline business...has eaten up capital...like..no other (business)
 
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SheikhDjibouti
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - June 2020

Sun Jun 28, 2020 5:13 pm

scbriml wrote:
Meanwhile, in the UK (or to be more precise, England)...
English public...:
Image
(c)Huw Evan Agency

Oh dear, looks like you've been reading the Daily Mail again......
scbriml wrote:
I'm ashamed. :banghead:

You should be; that photo is from 2014. You're usually better than that. :lol:
Nothing to see here; move along please.
 
frmrCapCadet
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - June 2020

Sun Jun 28, 2020 5:50 pm

Good catch
Buffet: the airline business...has eaten up capital...like..no other (business)
 
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mfranjic
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - June 2020

Sun Jun 28, 2020 7:33 pm


I guess some of You have noticed the newly installed app on your Android smartphone.
...
If You are interested, follow these steps ...
...
...
…...............… Image

......…........ Image

…… Image

Mario
"Only a life lived for others is a life worthwhile" - Albert Einstein
 
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Francoflier
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - June 2020

Mon Jun 29, 2020 1:53 am

LCDFlight wrote:
As of this week, death counts in the US are still down week over week, continuing a trend since early May. The narrative of the news media that COVID-19 is increasing is not significantly supported by data. It is an emotional / commercial response by the news media to increase their revenue. It's all about money to them. If it were about truth, they would be saying good news, the death count is still going down, which is a good proxy for hospital admissions and ICU usage. All down. The infection count remains unknown. CDC just this week said, "eh, infection count may be 10x higher." They don't know. It hasn't been studied.


Exactly.

The death count in the US might start trending up again, however. It usually trails the case count by a week or two. Although we seem to get better at treating it, so that trend will be interesting to watch.
But that doesn't change the fact that the new growth we are seeing now is happening in states which had no had a severe spike of cases until now. States which have seen a large spike already are not seeing a resurgence.

Basically, the virus will make its way, lockdown or not. The only moment lockdowns seem to be effective is when the progression becomes logarithmic and out of control, risking overwhelming the healthcare system.
Locking down too early does not eradicate the disease, and simply slows its progression at a stage where it isn't very prevalent anyway, meaning you just delay the inevitable as you end up losing the population's patience, which in turn means that when the spike does eventually hit, imposing another lockdown is much harder and will be much less effective.

Locking down too early is ineffective and counter productive, and trying to remain in lockdown forever in hope that this will go away is borderline insane.
The virus is among us, and will stay with us until is evolves into a more benign one like the flu, or most of us have developed an immunity to it, either naturally or artificially (like the flu...).
Everything must be done to slow its spread while this happens, but trying to run away from that reality while destroying the economy and countless people's livelihoods is just an irrational and purely emotional reaction.
I'll do my own airline. With Blackjack. And hookers. In fact, forget the airline.
 
santi319
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - June 2020

Mon Jun 29, 2020 2:33 am

Francoflier wrote:
Everything must be done to slow its spread while this happens, but trying to run away from that reality while destroying the economy and countless people's livelihoods is just an irrational and purely emotional reaction.



Yup. We can lockdown 6 months. We all come out. One gets sick and we are back to square one. This virus is just not going to stop existing just because we stay in our houses for an extended period of time. The world leader’s most demand a treatment that will keep it as a mild disease for those high at risk.

https://uk.reuters.com/article/us-healt ... KKBN23X2HQ

Interesting that this virus was in Barcelona in 2019 and we all survived!! What a revelation!
 
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scbriml
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - June 2020

Mon Jun 29, 2020 8:33 am

SheikhDjibouti wrote:
scbriml wrote:
I'm ashamed. :banghead:

You should be; that photo is from 2014. You're usually better than that. :lol:


Well that is a tad embarrassing. :shock: :oops:

frmrCapCadet wrote:
Good catch


Indeed. :checkmark:

However, one news source using an old stock photo to illustrate a story doesn't actually change the fact that beaches were packed and left looking like landfill sites just two days after the PM talked up the common sense of "the Great British public". :banghead:
Time flies like an arrow. Fruit flies like a banana!
There are 10 types of people in the World - those that understand binary and those that don't.
 
GDB
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - June 2020

Mon Jun 29, 2020 9:13 am

scbriml wrote:
SheikhDjibouti wrote:
scbriml wrote:
I'm ashamed. :banghead:

You should be; that photo is from 2014. You're usually better than that. :lol:


Well that is a tad embarrassing. :shock: :oops:

frmrCapCadet wrote:
Good catch


Indeed. :checkmark:

However, one news source using an old stock photo to illustrate a story doesn't actually change the fact that beaches were packed and left looking like landfill sites just two days after the PM talked up the common sense of "the Great British public". :banghead:


You see a lot of this now, in media, a lack of checking for things like file photos, I wonder if the rise of the (often unpaid) intern has something to do with it, or just some like the Will character in the BBC self parodying sitcom 'W1A'.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1yiDk08J3Lk

Here is some recent footage, not the worst of them by all accounts;
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xrEd2t93ah4

Still, Johnson wants people down the boozer on July 4th. Not a Gym though, (I would imagine that socially distancing in the latter would be easier plus the customers won't get drunk).
To the horror of many police forces, who are no doubt hoping for the effective crowd calming 'PC Rain'.

Don't get me started on what that buffoon thinks constitutes the 'common sense' of the great British public'.
Loathe that phrase as much as I loathe him.
Last edited by GDB on Mon Jun 29, 2020 9:25 am, edited 1 time in total.
 
tommy1808
Posts: 12749
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - June 2020

Mon Jun 29, 2020 9:20 am

LCDFlight wrote:
Aaron747 wrote:
LCDFlight wrote:

The US spent $5 trillion and probably also will lose another $5 trillion due to this slowdown / disemployment / throwing people into the gutter. If a person makes around $1 million in their working life, that is 10 million lives that we spent on mitigation.

You call that "not even a little bit of inconvenience?" 10 million working lives?

We have absolutely stepped up, at agonizing cost. Just because you don't feel it, because you are not poor, nor a major taxpayer apparently, does not mean we haven't stepped up.

As of this week, death counts in the US are still down week over week, continuing a trend since early May. The narrative of the news media that COVID-19 is increasing is not significantly supported by data. It is an emotional / commercial response by the news media to increase their revenue. It's all about money to them. If it were about truth, they would be saying good news, the death count is still going down, which is a good proxy for hospital admissions and ICU usage. All down. The infection count remains unknown. CDC just this week said, "eh, infection count may be 10x higher." They don't know. It hasn't been studied.


Epidemiologists posting all over the internet must be looking at different data than you. :crazy:


They are talking about "case counts." Early on, we all agreed that increased testing was a goal. We now are achieving that goal


The goal isn´t more testing in absolute numbers, but in relative numbers .... and in that regard the US is exactly where it was mid May: not enough for contact tracing, and testing them.

best regards
Thomas
Well, there is prophecy in the bible after all: 2 Timothy 3:1-6
 
ArchGuy1
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - June 2020

Mon Jun 29, 2020 8:19 pm

Governor Cuomo amd Mayor Bill de Blasio are weighing whether or not to allow restaurants in New York City to reopen at 50 percent capacity and said a decision will be made by Wednesday. I think one solution would be to allow restaurants to reopen at 25 percent capacity and an air filtration system to slow COVID-19 should be mandated in restaurants that choose to reopen. New Jersey meanwhile is halting plans to reopen indoor dining. Reopening museums at Phase 3 rather than Phase 4 is another good idea since they are lower risk than say sporting events and concerts.
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.nbcnew ... 967/%3famp
 
ltbewr
Posts: 15013
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - June 2020

Mon Jun 29, 2020 9:46 pm

ArchGuy1 wrote:
Governor Cuomo amd Mayor Bill de Blasio are weighing whether or not to allow restaurants in New York City to reopen at 50 percent capacity and said a decision will be made by Wednesday. I think one solution would be to allow restaurants to reopen at 25 percent capacity and an air filtration system to slow COVID-19 should be mandated in restaurants that choose to reopen. New Jersey meanwhile is halting plans to reopen indoor dining. Reopening museums at Phase 3 rather than Phase 4 is another good idea since they are lower risk than say sporting events and concerts.
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.nbcnew ... 967/%3famp


As to NJ not reopening partial indoor restaurant service, as our Governor politely says 'knuckleheads' ruined it by too many bars having too tight spacing of guests, too often without masks
 
ArchGuy1
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - June 2020

Mon Jun 29, 2020 9:49 pm

ltbewr wrote:
ArchGuy1 wrote:
Governor Cuomo amd Mayor Bill de Blasio are weighing whether or not to allow restaurants in New York City to reopen at 50 percent capacity and said a decision will be made by Wednesday. I think one solution would be to allow restaurants to reopen at 25 percent capacity and an air filtration system to slow COVID-19 should be mandated in restaurants that choose to reopen. New Jersey meanwhile is halting plans to reopen indoor dining. Reopening museums at Phase 3 rather than Phase 4 is another good idea since they are lower risk than say sporting events and concerts.
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.nbcnew ... 967/%3famp


As to NJ not reopening partial indoor restaurant service, as our Governor politely says 'knuckleheads' ruined it by too many bars having too tight spacing of guests, too often without masks

What do you think the decision for Wednesday will be?
 
ltbewr
Posts: 15013
Joined: Thu Jan 29, 2004 1:24 pm

Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - June 2020

Mon Jun 29, 2020 10:13 pm

ArchGuy1 wrote:
ltbewr wrote:
ArchGuy1 wrote:
Governor Cuomo amd Mayor Bill de Blasio are weighing whether or not to allow restaurants in New York City to reopen at 50 percent capacity and said a decision will be made by Wednesday. I think one solution would be to allow restaurants to reopen at 25 percent capacity and an air filtration system to slow COVID-19 should be mandated in restaurants that choose to reopen. New Jersey meanwhile is halting plans to reopen indoor dining. Reopening museums at Phase 3 rather than Phase 4 is another good idea since they are lower risk than say sporting events and concerts.
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.nbcnew ... 967/%3famp


As to NJ not reopening partial indoor restaurant service, as our Governor politely says 'knuckleheads' ruined it by too many bars having too tight spacing of guests, too often without masks

What do you think the decision for Wednesday will be?


I don't think Gov. Cuomo and Mayor DiBlasio will allow reopening of indoor restaurant service soon despite massive pressure on them until certain data points improve and other reopening acts are in progress to see how they work.
 
ArchGuy1
Posts: 1286
Joined: Wed Jul 10, 2019 11:35 pm

Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - June 2020

Mon Jun 29, 2020 10:18 pm

ltbewr wrote:
ArchGuy1 wrote:
ltbewr wrote:

As to NJ not reopening partial indoor restaurant service, as our Governor politely says 'knuckleheads' ruined it by too many bars having too tight spacing of guests, too often without masks

What do you think the decision for Wednesday will be?


I don't think Gov. Cuomo and Mayor DiBlasio will allow reopening of indoor restaurant service soon despite massive pressure on them until certain data points improve and other reopening acts are in progress to see how they work.

Will Phase 3 be modified or delayed with the start date?
 
Derico
Posts: 4400
Joined: Mon Dec 20, 1999 9:14 am

Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - June 2020

Tue Jun 30, 2020 3:01 am

LCDFlight wrote:
Derico wrote:
It almost seems as if the current generations in the USA cannot take even a little bit of inconvenience, let alone sacrifice, in their lives (excluding those who have military service or combat behind them or engage in voluntary or philanthropical work). I look around the world and to be honest, almost all other countries in some form are willing to take more pain or burden to get through the crisis (by supporting extreme lockdowns, or from strict compliance with epidemic prevention rules, or by supporting with higher taxes more robust and inclusive health care systems.. or in the case of the poorest countries simply by staying a little more at home, which for day to day workers is an extremely risky proposition).

It's like "I want everything open for MY convenience, and I will neither wear masks nor social distance, and I will go to the bar or beach to meet my buddies and enjoy life, and yeah screw grandma and the nurses and doctors, and btw I won't pay extra emergency taxes to strengthen the health care system". I have been trying to defend the behavior of western people in front of non-westerners recently, but boy this makes it tough not to agree with them that we are selfish, undisciplined, and just simply dumber or short-sighted. Thankfully most of Europe and some other isolated places in Oceania and South America still give me ammunition to show that people can comply and understand the situation.


The US spent $5 trillion and probably also will lose another $5 trillion due to this slowdown / disemployment / throwing people into the gutter. If a person makes around $1 million in their working life, that is 10 million lives that we spent on mitigation.

You call that "not even a little bit of inconvenience?" 10 million working lives?

We have absolutely stepped up, at agonizing cost. Just because you don't feel it, because you are not poor, nor a major taxpayer apparently, does not mean we haven't stepped up.

As of this week, death counts in the US are still down week over week, continuing a trend since early May. The narrative of the news media that COVID-19 is increasing is not significantly supported by data. It is an emotional / commercial response by the news media to increase their revenue. It's all about money to them. If it were about truth, they would be saying good news, the death count is still going down, which is a good proxy for hospital admissions and ICU usage. All down. The infection count remains unknown. CDC just this week said, "eh, infection count may be 10x higher." They don't know. It hasn't been studied.


No you have not, and the fact the US is the worst performer in infection control with Brazil is proof. What you said about the 10 million working lives, has been repeated even MORE extremely in every nation in the world. The US did a weak half-hearted lockdown that is nothing compared to what Europe, Asia and some South American nations have done.

I have absolutely no problem with the argument that those severe lockdowns are not a good idea and that other countries choose another path. The economy is paramount I understand that, I don't fault countries if they decide to not continue or go through a paralysis. But the countries that didn't completely shut down, South Korea, Sweden, Chile, etc, are also requiring draconian measures from the population when going to work, socializing etc. None of that is happening in the USA.

People really had the mindset that when the lockdowns were over, it was business as usual and nothing more to do.

It has been a very poor showing from both government and citizen. And businesses too really. The big reason the pressure in the US is so much bigger to reopen is because your government safety net of unemployment and sickness is so pathetically weak (ok, your country). But also the private sector's, instead of filling that gap, also has virtually no benefits for their workers (prohibitive health care pagackes and 401k with 0 pension is not a generous offer, sorry). So of course people feel desperate to get back to work, it's an "save yourself" society. Government looks out only for government, companies only for themselves, and people have no choice but to fend for themselves.

This crisis has shown how the US miracle was only a veneer, which only seems "prosperous" with zero interest rates, central bank tricks to boost the stock market, and massive chronic spending deficits. The slightest little pebble on the road and it begins to crack like an egg.
My internet was not shut down, the internet has shut me down
 
melpax
Posts: 2017
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - June 2020

Tue Jun 30, 2020 11:19 am

10 of the hardest-hit postcode areas (36 Suburbs) in Melbourne's Northern & Western suburbs have been ordered back into lockdown for 4 weeks as of midnight tomorrow (Wednesday) in an attempt to control the second wave that is hitting Melbourne. The State Premier has said that police will be manning checkpoints to ensure that affected residents are travelling for approved purposes only, he has warned that if things don't improve, then the whole Melbourne Metro area could be placed back into lockdown.....

https://www.heraldsun.com.au/coronaviru ... 3b90ac76b5
Essendon - Whatever it takes......
 
anrec80
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - June 2020

Tue Jun 30, 2020 11:42 am

ltbewr wrote:
As to NJ not reopening partial indoor restaurant service, as our Governor politely says 'knuckleheads' ruined it by too many bars having too tight spacing of guests, too often without masks



How about all these BLM protests and looting? Oh, those are sinless angels and can't ruin anything. After this, they can just move on, lift all the bans and not think of anything.
 
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Francoflier
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - June 2020

Tue Jun 30, 2020 11:51 am

melpax wrote:
10 of the hardest-hit postcode areas (36 Suburbs) in Melbourne's Northern & Western suburbs have been ordered back into lockdown for 4 weeks as of midnight tomorrow (Wednesday) in an attempt to control the second wave that is hitting Melbourne. The State Premier has said that police will be manning checkpoints to ensure that affected residents are travelling for approved purposes only, he has warned that if things don't improve, then the whole Melbourne Metro area could be placed back into lockdown.....

https://www.heraldsun.com.au/coronaviru ... 3b90ac76b5


Australia's in it for the long term I see.
It is quasi impossible to get rid of the virus before it makes its way through the population.
Like other countries which haven't been exposed to it to any large degree yet, the population has no immunity and is a perfect breeding ground.
That is the problem with early lockdowns. They only delay the inevitable. Unfortunately for Oz, they will just keep going from lockdown to lockdown until someone finds a cure as the virus will breakout as soon as restrictions are relaxed.

I wonder how many lockdowns people will go through before they just start to go mental...
Good luck.
I'll do my own airline. With Blackjack. And hookers. In fact, forget the airline.
 
anrec80
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - June 2020

Tue Jun 30, 2020 12:11 pm

Derico wrote:
It almost seems as if the current generations in the USA cannot take even a little bit of inconvenience, let alone sacrifice, in their lives (excluding those who have military service or combat behind them or engage in voluntary or philanthropical work). I look around the world and to be honest, almost all other countries in some form are willing to take more pain or burden to get through the crisis (by supporting extreme lockdowns, or from strict compliance with epidemic prevention rules, or by supporting with higher taxes more robust and inclusive health care systems.. or in the case of the poorest countries simply by staying a little more at home, which for day to day workers is an extremely risky proposition).


Even little inconveniences add up over time. A little inconvenience - is asking to wear the mask once or twice at most. But putting the muzzle on the whole society, the whole country until further notice is far from small inconvenience. We have seen a lot of mathematical models of COVID spread, but I have not seen anyone ever to be bothered with impact of the measures on the whole society - mental health issues, broken families, rising alcohol sales. And each day of the societies in this muzzle costs more than the previous.

Derico wrote:
It's like "I want everything open for MY convenience, and I will neither wear masks nor social distance, and I will go to the bar or beach to meet my buddies and enjoy life, and yeah screw grandma and the nurses and doctors, and btw I won't pay extra emergency taxes to strengthen the health care system". I have been trying to defend the behavior of western people in front of non-westerners recently, but boy this makes it tough not to agree with them that we are selfish, undisciplined, and just simply dumber or short-sighted. Thankfully most of Europe and some other isolated places in Oceania and South America still give me ammunition to show that people can comply and understand the situation.


Yes, humans are social creatures, and overwhelming majority of people do need to socialize with others. And it's perfectly lawful desire to go to a bar, to a beach and other places. When you are putting this measures, they cannot and should not be "until further notice", otherwise the whole society will simply disintegrate. And speaking of grandmas - each family needs to be closer together, more considerate of each other. You have a senior in your household - be aware of it and extra careful. But this isn't the reason to lock the whole society down.
 
anrec80
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - June 2020

Tue Jun 30, 2020 12:21 pm

LCDFlight wrote:
The US spent $5 trillion and probably also will lose another $5 trillion due to this slowdown / disemployment / throwing people into the gutter. If a person makes around $1 million in their working life, that is 10 million lives that we spent on mitigation.

You call that "not even a little bit of inconvenience?" 10 million working lives?

We have absolutely stepped up, at agonizing cost. Just because you don't feel it, because you are not poor, nor a major taxpayer apparently, does not mean we haven't stepped up.


Agree - the economy has to be considered. Decisions based on emotional irrational fear can be extremely costly.

LCDFlight wrote:
As of this week, death counts in the US are still down week over week, continuing a trend since early May. The narrative of the news media that COVID-19 is increasing is not significantly supported by data.


COVID-19 cases may be increasing, but so what? Any increases in death rate? In hospitalizations? Is healthcare system overburdened?

LCDFlight wrote:
It is an emotional / commercial response by the news media to increase their revenue. It's all about money to them. If it were about truth, they would be saying good news, the death count is still going down, which is a good proxy for hospital admissions and ICU usage. All down. The infection count remains unknown. CDC just this week said, "eh, infection count may be 10x higher." They don't know. It hasn't been studied.


Agree - all this narrative is for Dems to keep lockdowns for longer. They are fighting Trump's economy argument this way, at an immense cost to the nation and the society.
 
anrec80
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - June 2020

Tue Jun 30, 2020 12:38 pm

Francoflier wrote:
]
The death count in the US might start trending up again, however. It usually trails the case count by a week or two. Although we seem to get better at treating it, so that trend will be interesting to watch.
But that doesn't change the fact that the new growth we are seeing now is happening in states which had no had a severe spike of cases until now. States which have seen a large spike already are not seeing a resurgence.

Basically, the virus will make its way, lockdown or not. The only moment lockdowns seem to be effective is when the progression becomes logarithmic and out of control, risking overwhelming the healthcare system.
Locking down too early does not eradicate the disease, and simply slows its progression at a stage where it isn't very prevalent anyway, meaning you just delay the inevitable as you end up losing the population's patience, which in turn means that when the spike does eventually hit, imposing another lockdown is much harder and will be much less effective.

Locking down too early is ineffective and counter productive, and trying to remain in lockdown forever in hope that this will go away is borderline insane.
The virus is among us, and will stay with us until is evolves into a more benign one like the flu, or most of us have developed an immunity to it, either naturally or artificially (like the flu...).
Everything must be done to slow its spread while this happens, but trying to run away from that reality while destroying the economy and countless people's livelihoods is just an irrational and purely emotional reaction.


:checkmark: :checkmark: :checkmark: :checkmark:

Can't agree more, with every single word. This has been my observation as well. The more I look at all these quarantines, the more I am getting convinced that these lockdowns are of limited value at best. Sure, the lockdown can help save lives if your healthcare system is overburdened and doctors cannot help everyone who needs help early on. But other than that - this is just dragging time, putting tension onto the society for barely any reason.

And I do notice that regions where they had nasty rise, bell-shaped curve in Spring, do not have any raise now. The cases are going up now in regions that imposed quarantine having too few cases, but the virus is making its way and their bell is yet to come. The cities that are done with their bell are doing OK now.

Good news is that, at least in Russia, the virus that is moving inside the country, from the original epicenter, is getting weaker than it used to be. I.e. despite the rise in case numbers, we may even not see any increase in mortality or hospitalizations.
 
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casinterest
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - June 2020

Tue Jun 30, 2020 12:41 pm

anrec80 wrote:
Francoflier wrote:
]
The death count in the US might start trending up again, however. It usually trails the case count by a week or two. Although we seem to get better at treating it, so that trend will be interesting to watch.
But that doesn't change the fact that the new growth we are seeing now is happening in states which had no had a severe spike of cases until now. States which have seen a large spike already are not seeing a resurgence.

Basically, the virus will make its way, lockdown or not. The only moment lockdowns seem to be effective is when the progression becomes logarithmic and out of control, risking overwhelming the healthcare system.
Locking down too early does not eradicate the disease, and simply slows its progression at a stage where it isn't very prevalent anyway, meaning you just delay the inevitable as you end up losing the population's patience, which in turn means that when the spike does eventually hit, imposing another lockdown is much harder and will be much less effective.

Locking down too early is ineffective and counter productive, and trying to remain in lockdown forever in hope that this will go away is borderline insane.
The virus is among us, and will stay with us until is evolves into a more benign one like the flu, or most of us have developed an immunity to it, either naturally or artificially (like the flu...).
Everything must be done to slow its spread while this happens, but trying to run away from that reality while destroying the economy and countless people's livelihoods is just an irrational and purely emotional reaction.


:checkmark: :checkmark: :checkmark: :checkmark:

Can't agree more, with every single word. This has been my observation as well. The more I look at all these quarantines, the more I am getting convinced that these lockdowns are of limited value at best. Sure, the lockdown can help save lives if your healthcare system is overburdened and doctors cannot help everyone who needs help early on. But other than that - this is just dragging time, putting tension onto the society for barely any reason.

And I do notice that regions where they had nasty rise, bell-shaped curve in Spring, do not have any raise now. The cases are going up now in regions that imposed quarantine having too few cases, but the virus is making its way and their bell is yet to come. The cities that are done with their bell are doing OK now.

Good news is that, at least in Russia, the virus that is moving inside the country, from the original epicenter, is getting weaker than it used to be. I.e. despite the rise in case numbers, we may even not see any increase in mortality or hospitalizations.


I think you are taking the wrong message. Social distancing is saving lives. The cities that finished their first bell are ok while in early phases of reopening, but there is still no herd immunity. at best 25% in NYC have been infected.
Where ever you go, there you are.
 
anrec80
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - June 2020

Tue Jun 30, 2020 12:58 pm

casinterest wrote:
I think you are taking the wrong message. Social distancing is saving lives. The cities that finished their first bell are ok while in early phases of reopening, but there is still no herd immunity. at best 25% in NYC have been infected.


I don't see what it saves. These things aren't sustainable long term, even for medium term. People will want to see each other anyway, and inevitably will relax or get annoyed with wearing the muzzle. The only way it can save lives if you can drag it without significant impact on society until either mass vaccination has been completed or there are efficient treatment protocols. None of that is on the horizon. Hence - buckle up and hold the wheel tightly while going through the curve. The sooner you reach the herd immunity the less lasting damage you will incur, and the sooner things return to normal.
 
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casinterest
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - June 2020

Tue Jun 30, 2020 1:00 pm

anrec80 wrote:
casinterest wrote:
I think you are taking the wrong message. Social distancing is saving lives. The cities that finished their first bell are ok while in early phases of reopening, but there is still no herd immunity. at best 25% in NYC have been infected.


I don't see what it saves. These things aren't sustainable long term, even for medium term. People will want to see each other anyway, and inevitably will relax or get annoyed with wearing the muzzle. The only way it can save lives if you can drag it without significant impact on society until either mass vaccination has been completed or there are efficient treatment protocols. None of that is on the horizon. Hence - buckle up and hold the wheel tightly while going through the curve. The sooner you reach the herd immunity the less lasting damage you will incur, and the sooner things return to normal.



Overloaded hospitals are like overloaded network connections. Packets get dropped. Usually the ones without any priority markers.
Where ever you go, there you are.
 
ltbewr
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - June 2020

Tue Jun 30, 2020 1:05 pm

Some bring up that the anti-racism/BLM protests are a primary cause of the most recent bump up in Covid-19 infections but others and public health officials are more about large groups - mostly young and White - without masks and not practicing distancing. Most of the protesters wore masks, were outdoors which is less risky but clearly the maskless partiers is seen as much more risky. Some will also try to downplay the Protesters factor for fear of coming off as racist and against freedom of speech. I expect some backlash soon.
 
melpax
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - June 2020

Tue Jun 30, 2020 1:11 pm

Francoflier wrote:

I wonder how many lockdowns people will go through before they just start to go mental...
Good luck.


Already happening I'm afraid, divorce lawyers are flat out, and there are a lot more people with mental health issues that have been caused or exacerbated by the initial lockdown....
Essendon - Whatever it takes......
 
anrec80
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - June 2020

Tue Jun 30, 2020 1:23 pm

ltbewr wrote:
Some bring up that the anti-racism/BLM protests are a primary cause of the most recent bump up in Covid-19 infections but others and public health officials are more about large groups - mostly young and White - without masks and not practicing distancing. Most of the protesters wore masks, were outdoors which is less risky but clearly the maskless partiers is seen as much more risky. Some will also try to downplay the Protesters factor for fear of coming off as racist and against freedom of speech. I expect some backlash soon.


I don't know if it can be called primary. But in cities where people were on premature lockdown with too few cases, and all of a sudden you have a large gathering. The risk of large gathering is that too many people (hundreds, thousands) are contacting with many others for a few hours, while at a party you have a few (5-10 maybe).
 
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - June 2020

Tue Jun 30, 2020 2:40 pm

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