Moderators: richierich, ua900, PanAm_DC10, hOMSaR

 
olle
Posts: 1893
Joined: Tue Feb 06, 2007 3:38 am

Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - June 2020

Fri Jun 12, 2020 9:17 pm

zkojq wrote:
Aaron747 wrote:
Where is AirWorthy? As predicted, Sweden’s top epidemiologist has contritely admitted he was wrong as deaths continue to mount there.

https://twitter.com/drericding/status/1 ... 90017?s=21


Credit where credit is due: at least they're admitting they were wrong, rather than trying to cover it up or manipulate statistics to try and make the situation look less awful.

casinterest wrote:
Same populations.
Sweden:

40803 Cases (probably well undercounted)
4542 dead.

North Carolina:
30419 cases
969 deaths.


Social distancing works folks, and NC is a lot more dense than Sweden.


Those numbers are brutal. Ouch.

casinterest wrote:
Petty politics have already screwed over social distancing. The most effective treatment known to date.


It's interesting how the narrative has changed. A few weeks ago, many of our other participants in these threads were saying that Social Distancing is ineffective and that legislative measures to enforce it should be dismantled because they were apparently far too aggressive. But now that the BLM protests have begun it would seem that those people now believe that Social Distancing A) works, B) is very effective and C) should be enforced aggressively. Curious. :lol:

bgm wrote:
And now Brazil has stopped publishing its total cases/deaths, because.... *checks notes*.... "the cumulative data did not reflect the current picture", Bolsonaro claims. :sarcastic:


Hmmm reminds me of Boris making the Ministry Of Health publish international comparisons every day of the pandemic, right up to the day when the UK's death rate became worse than the rest of Europe's before mysteriously dropping it.

Ishrion wrote:


Tuesday was the first day with the country completely free of the virus. There are no COVID19 restrictions at all for day-to-day life other than the borders being closed to foreign non-residents and an enforced two week quarantine at a government secured facility.

Very good news for the economy. I have to say that although things have been relatively normal for a week or so (other than a few things like limits on group sizes and social distancing on public transport) it's really surreal how everything is calm and serene here whilst the rest of the world is still in a panic struggling to contain it.


Regions that got warning and acted on the warning in times has got out well from the first wave of the outbreak. Stockholm in Sweden got cases already in January. Government realized too late that older people needed to be separated from the rest of the population. The rest of sweden got the warning and acted and has equal or less spreading compared to denmark or norway.

In norway and denmark there is discussion about the effect or lack of effect of closing schools.

I consider the truth about things will be shown in the second wave and before vaccine hopefully arrives during 2021.

will we see full closedown again in UK, spain and Norway even if unemployment in some countries will be close 25%?

How long time will countries be able to finance the lockdowns if they happen 4-6 month per year?
 
User avatar
scbriml
Posts: 18954
Joined: Wed Jul 02, 2003 10:37 pm

Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - June 2020

Fri Jun 12, 2020 9:43 pm

GDB wrote:
Quite understandable, here's what you said in song form;
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bNEMxeI6-rE


Quite brilliant! :rotfl:
Time flies like an arrow. Fruit flies like a banana!
There are 10 types of people in the World - those that understand binary and those that don't.
 
ltbewr
Posts: 15018
Joined: Thu Jan 29, 2004 1:24 pm

Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - June 2020

Fri Jun 12, 2020 10:08 pm

Complacency and the need to prevent further economic disaster at least in the short term, is leading to Covid-19 pandemic rules to be disregarded or dispensed with. Some states like Utah may reinstate some pandemic restrictions, some cities like Houston may have to do so too as infection, hospitalization and death numbers rise. In NJ/NY the numbers have dropped where the R number is about 0.65 but it may go up from the recent anti-racism protests and lessening restrictions. Greater access to and of testing may also be a factor in higher infection numbers.
 
santi319
Posts: 986
Joined: Thu Dec 29, 2005 3:24 pm

Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - June 2020

Sat Jun 13, 2020 1:14 am

The world needs to get it, covid is here to stay, it will not stop. Period. Certainly you can’t be locked down for 6 months, there are far more dangerous health risks from that, specially mentally. Wear a mask, wash your hands and be careful. Life goes on.
 
User avatar
bgm
Posts: 2430
Joined: Fri Sep 11, 2009 9:37 am

Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - June 2020

Sat Jun 13, 2020 7:43 am

santi319 wrote:
Life goes on.


Not for the people who have died from it.
If you hate wearing a mask, you’re really going to hate using a ventilator.
 
User avatar
mad99
Posts: 1240
Joined: Fri Mar 02, 2012 10:33 am

Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - June 2020

Sat Jun 13, 2020 7:59 am

My wife went to work yesterday. First time in 94 days, she’s been working from home.
 
lowwkjax
Posts: 35
Joined: Sun Sep 02, 2018 10:52 am

Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - June 2020

Sat Jun 13, 2020 9:50 am

bgm wrote:
santi319 wrote:
Life goes on.


Not for the people who have died from it.


True. But same goes for people killed by other diseases. Sad but that’s part of life. Here in Austria, more people were killed by the flu than by COVID-19. That’s a fact, not made up. And social distancing and all works for the flu as well.

https://orf.at/stories/3169123/

Not trying to say COVID-19 is harmless and should be disregarded, but once again, the hysteria about it is made up and far from necessary. A bit caution here and there will do it, and if done, COVID-19 will have less impact than other diseases which we’ve been living with for years and years. Like the flu, which is a disease that is widely known, we know how to treat it and we even have vaccines. Still killed more people than the super fast spreading ultimate killer machine named Corona... Wash your hands, don’t cough into someone else’s face, but other than that, go on with your life. Seriously.

Btw - most of my fellow Austrians think and act the same way and guess what - we’ve been called one of the countries with the best ways of handling this pandemic so far... but maybe that’s because our people don’t need to be reminded to watch their step when they get off a bus or a trolley, we are aware without telling us that a moving walkway ending means that we have to start using our own feet again, and we won’t be given billions of dollars when we get sick from smoking because our courts will tell you to shut your face if you claim you didn’t know it would harm you. And we don’t need warnings that putting a cat into a microwave may have consequences for that cat.

A little bit of using this thing called brain, added to some information about the disease given to the public, does help more than any government controlled measures restricting lives and the economy for months and months.
 
User avatar
Aesma
Posts: 12947
Joined: Sat Nov 14, 2009 6:14 am

Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - June 2020

Sat Jun 13, 2020 10:53 am

casinterest wrote:
If the openings are as they were in NC, I would expect to see them having rising cases in the next 5-10 days. keep on eye on the French numbers. They reopened on June 2.


But reopening here in France is done carefully. And there is less reopening where I live around Paris because the situation is worse here, so restaurants are still closed for example.

Stores commonly mandate wearing masks.

lowwkjax wrote:
Please keep in mind that while we are talking about “thousands of new cases”, the percentage is still quite low. Mexico for example today has a growth rate of between 3 and 4%, and if you think back to Europe, countries there saw a growth rate of 30, 40, some even 50%. I am from Austria and I still remember our officials when they said that our numbers dropped to 3% new infections rate, it was almost like something we could celebrate. And today we’re considered one of those who handled the situation very well.

I know the absolute number “4,000” sounds bad, but you also have to look at the percentage which makes it less bad. Cautious? Yes. Panic? No.


It's difficult to compare a small and a large country. Mexico could have hot spots while other parts of the country are COVID free.

santi319 wrote:
The world needs to get it, covid is here to stay, it will not stop. Period. Certainly you can’t be locked down for 6 months, there are far more dangerous health risks from that, specially mentally. Wear a mask, wash your hands and be careful. Life goes on.


You need a leader that actually tells people that, though. Trump isn't saying it, and not doing it either.
New Technology is the name we give to stuff that doesn't work yet. Douglas Adams
 
User avatar
zkojq
Posts: 4275
Joined: Fri Sep 02, 2011 12:42 am

Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - June 2020

Sat Jun 13, 2020 10:58 am

Dieuwer wrote:
Then the only conclusion must be the COVID-19 dies out by itself if you simply stop the spread. The claim that it can live on some hidden surface "forever" is clearly false.


Indeed. My understanding was that it can last up to three days on surfaces in a worst case scenario and that best practice was to assume it lasted four days.

Dieuwer wrote:
Perhaps the conclusion should be that if you clamped down hard in the beginning (like New Zealand), you successfully "beat" the virus, whereas if you used a soft touch and opened early (or never really closed in the first place) you will experience continued rising cases.


I think that's been clear for a while now. The countries that were the most proactive at putting in place aggressive measures before the virus really took off locally are the ones who have the best results in reducing infections.

dtw2hyd wrote:
At least New Zealand appears to have put decent effort in controlling unlike several countries making bold claims without doing anything.

India is the worst example(not knowing the deal with China). From claims of having total control to total chaos and government completely gave up.

Even within US both CDC and some states were/are falsely counting anti-body tests as PCR tests. Who are they trying to fool. Number of active cases is alarmingly high, this late in the game.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/


Not disputing nor disagreeing with you at all, but I do wonder how well developing countries can contain the spread realistically.

A week or two ago I saw a piece by the UK's Channel Four News about the spread through a slum in Sao Paolo. In the slum all the houses are packed ridiculously close together (unsurprising - it's a slum) with the main street being an alley barely a metre in width which was very crowded. With that in mind and seeing very large families crammed into single or double roomed houses, it's hard to think that the spread can be realistically contained in urban areas of the developing world. Couple that with primative healthcare infrastructure (+ less PPE, probably?) and everything looks even more bleak.

Remember also that whilst in the western world we have our food well packaged and wrapped up when we buy it from a supermarket as well as contactless delivery options, in the developing world food often has to be handled multiple times at the store or market which opens up a lot more potential for transmission.

santi319 wrote:
Certainly you can’t be locked down for 6 months, there are far more dangerous health risks from that, specially mentally.


:redflag: :redflag:
Nope, that's a myth and, let's be honest, it's concern trolling.

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/arti ... d=12333030
First to fly the 787-9
 
dtw2hyd
Posts: 8235
Joined: Wed Jan 09, 2013 12:11 pm

Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - June 2020

Sat Jun 13, 2020 9:31 pm

zkojq wrote:
Not disputing nor disagreeing with you at all, but I do wonder how well developing countries can contain the spread realistically.

A week or two ago I saw a piece by the UK's Channel Four News about the spread through a slum in Sao Paolo. In the slum all the houses are packed ridiculously close together (unsurprising - it's a slum) with the main street being an alley barely a metre in width which was very crowded. With that in mind and seeing very large families crammed into single or double roomed houses, it's hard to think that the spread can be realistically contained in urban areas of the developing world. Couple that with primative healthcare infrastructure (+ less PPE, probably?) and everything looks even more bleak.


I don't deny the difficulties urban centers in developing world face, but India picked the Bollywood option i.e., just pure drama including so-called lock down. Close to 130 Million migrant workers were walking along surface roads and railroad tracks for 60 days without food or sanitation. How would that help. Didn't do one good thing which would help stop community transmission. A monarch should be able to order to transport them in a week, it would be done.

In contrast, Governor of Michigan faced 2nd amendment protesters, constitutional/legal issuers, public's resistance to masks and social distancing, but she didn't back down. At one point Michigan was #3 in total cases, now we are #9. More importantly we are #16 with less than 15,000 active cases.

Researchers at Imperial College London and Oxford University tracked the effectiveness of non-pharmaceutical interventions against the novel coronavirus, such as stay-at-home orders, by tracking how mobility decreased after governors declared states of emergency in each state.

https://www.detroitnews.com/story/news/ ... 342143002/

zkojq wrote:
Remember also that whilst in the western world we have our food well packaged and wrapped up when we buy it from a supermarket as well as contactless delivery options, in the developing world food often has to be handled multiple times at the store or market which opens up a lot more potential for transmission.


You raised an interesting topic. Knowing how COVID-19 survives on organic matter vs artificial surfaces, particularly plastic, I am of the opinion US should stop packaging food in plastic bags. It is a nightmare to cut open and throw away plastic packaging. I would like to hear other opinions.
All posts are just opinions.
 
cpd
Posts: 6303
Joined: Sat Jun 28, 2008 4:46 am

Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - June 2020

Sat Jun 13, 2020 10:48 pm

In NSW, protests are banned under public health orders, but we are allowing 50 people to cram themselves into a cafe or restaurant or other venue:

https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/nsw ... 552ar.html

Sporting matches are also allowed to have spectators now. The hypocrisy is huge. Protests obviously don’t contribute money to the government, nor are they backed by corporate unions who lobby at election time.

If protests increase the risk of spreading the virus, then jamming into a restaurant or cafe must be equally dangerous because the distancing between people is similar.

I will avoid restaurants, cafes and other venues as I have been already. I can make the same coffee and food at home. I can work from home if needed, or I can ride a bicycle to go to my actual work where there are few people in the office. Even during the lockdown my routine didn’t change that much from normal, I kept active as well.
 
KFTG
Posts: 787
Joined: Sun Apr 28, 2019 12:08 am

Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - June 2020

Sun Jun 14, 2020 7:44 am

Major scandal appears to be being uncovered and exposed at Elmhurst Hospital in Queens.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mcUfZlq ... e=youtu.be
 
tommy1808
Posts: 12756
Joined: Thu Nov 21, 2013 3:24 pm

Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - June 2020

Sun Jun 14, 2020 8:17 am

KFTG wrote:
Major scandal appears to be being uncovered and exposed at Elmhurst Hospital in Queens.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mcUfZlq ... e=youtu.be


Are we supposed to watch 70 minutes of highly monetized video to figure out what the scandal is?

Best regards
Thomas
Well, there is prophecy in the bible after all: 2 Timothy 3:1-6
 
KFTG
Posts: 787
Joined: Sun Apr 28, 2019 12:08 am

Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - June 2020

Sun Jun 14, 2020 8:22 am

 
tommy1808
Posts: 12756
Joined: Thu Nov 21, 2013 3:24 pm

Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - June 2020

Sun Jun 14, 2020 8:55 am

KFTG wrote:


So, nurse Karen from Florida went to New York, looked at a hospital, disagrees with the practices there, did, at least according to fox news, not even bother asking anyone why things where done that way, and is now somehow a story. She also still believes in Hydroxychloroquine ....

Seems more like the usual "make up a scandal when you don't want to cover real news" bit we are so used to get from Fox.

Best regards
Thomas
Well, there is prophecy in the bible after all: 2 Timothy 3:1-6
 
ltbewr
Posts: 15018
Joined: Thu Jan 29, 2004 1:24 pm

Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - June 2020

Sun Jun 14, 2020 9:19 am

KFTG wrote:


A lot of terrible decisions were made early on and still being made dealing with the Covid-19 pandemic. As I have suggested before, there will be 1000's of studies, reports, books, articles discussing this pandemic as to how it developed to its mass devastation. Like with many plane crashes, a series of decisions or non-decisions will explain what likely happened, if gaps, then conspiracy theories will become popular and some already have (i.e.:its origin an intentional creation from a lab in Wuhan, China). Many will be butt covering for their mistakes and incompetency, likely 100's 1000's of lawsuits that may bring out the truth, many politicians losing their next election, likely in the discussed hospital the administrative staff fired, many millions financially ruined and 100's of millions with lifelong PTSD from the pandemic.
 
Gavros33
Posts: 1
Joined: Sun Jun 14, 2020 9:13 am

Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - June 2020

Sun Jun 14, 2020 9:39 am

I have watched the full video of this nurse from Elmhurst hospital and I don't know why it's so hard for a lot of people to understand that there can be other aspects to this pandemic apart from those presented by the mainstream media.

I have no reason not to believe what this medical professional has witnessed. As time goes on, this "virus" and those controlling it's narrative are becoming more suspect. It's good to question what we are being told. Yes, there's no doubt there's a virus, whether it was purposely released or not, it seems that some real powerful people are using it to their advantage. Even the W.H.O themselves keep changing their minds on how this virus operates.

I am not afraid of this virus in the slightest. I don't even practice social distancing. If you're confident in your own immune system and health then this is not another bubonic plague pandemic (yes I know of someone who has had Covid, whether it was a fake diagnosis for a flu is another matter...). Here in Australia just over 100 people have died "from" this virus and even media sources (if you do a bit of research) have admitted all but 4 of these people had serious comorbitities and even the flu or other communicable illness could've killed them if coronavirus didn't. Locking down whole economies is going to and is already doing a lot more damage than this serious cold will ever do. Also Australia kept its borders to passengers from China, Italy etc open a lot later than the USA did (your government was on the front foot there) so I am inclined to believe this nurse in saying that gross mismanagement of patients in the US is causing inflated figures of cases and deaths. Not blaming the doctors and nurses on the frontline as again, they're just doing what they're told by the "higher ups".

2020 has opened my eyes to how misled this world can be by those few powerful people with agendas who stand to make a lot of money from this crisis and assume even more control in the order of this world.
 
StarAC17
Posts: 3795
Joined: Thu Aug 07, 2003 11:54 am

Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - June 2020

Sun Jun 14, 2020 5:13 pm

casinterest wrote:
Dieuwer wrote:
casinterest wrote:


Why? They are opening up as well. The same issue will persist there. At some point a degree of reopening has to happen, and that is what Texas, Florida, NC , AZ and others all did. I argued that they all should have waited till June 1 , but oh well. Anyway here we are, and the cases are going up. We need to see if Phase 2 will slow down or Plateau, or if some of the openings need to be rolled back, but at this point even the North East is on the same trajectory.


No the Northeast is not on the same trajectory. The cases and deaths here are dropping, just like in Europe.



Except the Northeast has entered Phase 2. In two to three weeks we will see a turn in NY and NJ regardless back to more cases.
Every bit of reopening allows this disease to spread further and quicker, unless there is enough immunity, or vaccines.

There are still less deaths( for now ) per day in NC, AZ, FL, TX than there still are in NY and NJ.

is that because of testing, or are we still on the leading edge(probably) of hospitalization and deaths in the rising states ?


An increase in cases is fine, every person who gets this and recovers on their own is a good thing and one more immune individual whom we can perhaps use their blood serum to help others in a more dire state. Now the person who has tested positive needs to get their ass into quarantine and I like what some places do and that is to put someone who is positive in a state quarantine which is essentially putting them up in a hotel for 2 weeks and be monitored. Sending them home to family puts their family at risk and that is where we are seeing cases still spreading for the most part. Put them in a true isolation that isn't prison and lets them recover. I heard that this would be a good way for the government to give the hotel industry a bit of business, but a sick person is a hotel room for 2 weeks so we know they are isolated and can't spread it. Hopefully one silver lining is we insist that people who are sick stay home and businesses make where that person can still be somewhat productive from home.

An uptick and hospitalizations and deaths should be the main driver of how open a given place should be. If you are seeing more hospitalizations and deaths then be on guard to tighten the leash and vice versa.

flyguy89 wrote:
casinterest wrote:
Both have room in the hospitals, but with the rates increasing, how close will we get to full and how soon?

As long as there's slack in hospital capacity...that's what flattening the curve was all about, pacing out infections to avoid hospital capacity constraints.


Can't speak for the US but that was the initial reason for the lockdown in Canada and the goalposts were moved to eradication which had they said at first the public would have probably approved of a much stricter lockdown initially to achieve that. New Zealand was consistent from the start to their credit, outside of Bonnie Henry who is the cheif medical offer of BC who has been outstanding. The communication down the line has been horrible and inconsistent and for example the number of cases means nothing unless you tell all the facts to people.

Thankfully medical experts are now debating the cost/benefit analysis of the lockdowns while some are content to keep people essentially away from each other there is finally a debate about how to proceed on all fronts on the pandemic. Because thankfully not all of them agree and some are actually saying that the government has moved the goalposts and they should be called out on this.

The mental health costs are being looked at, where in BC the death from opioids was 4 times that of Covid in May.
The economic costs to small business especially
The costs to children not being able to play and interact is being looked at and even adults not being able to have contact with each other
Even the most medically conscious people out there are getting fed up and stir crazy.

lowwkjax wrote:
Please keep in mind that while we are talking about “thousands of new cases”, the percentage is still quite low. Mexico for example today has a growth rate of between 3 and 4%, and if you think back to Europe, countries there saw a growth rate of 30, 40, some even 50%. I am from Austria and I still remember our officials when they said that our numbers dropped to 3% new infections rate, it was almost like something we could celebrate. And today we’re considered one of those who handled the situation very well.

I know the absolute number “4,000” sounds bad, but you also have to look at the percentage which makes it less bad. Cautious? Yes. Panic? No.


Thank you!!

I have been saying this from day one, a numerator means nothing without a denominator.
7 million infections scare people but 7 million/7.8 billion not so much, be on guard but not panicking.
Engineers Rule The World!!!!!
 
anrec80
Posts: 2740
Joined: Mon Jan 10, 2011 7:50 am

Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - June 2020

Sun Jun 14, 2020 7:18 pm

santi319 wrote:
The world needs to get it, covid is here to stay, it will not stop. Period. Certainly you can’t be locked down for 6 months, there are far more dangerous health risks from that, specially mentally. Wear a mask, wash your hands and be careful. Life goes on.


Agree. It’s time to open up. Costs and damages outweigh all the potential benefits. Especially now, after all recent protests - quarantine measures no longer even add any value. Whatever they were implemented to prevent - happened anyway. That’s all.
 
anrec80
Posts: 2740
Joined: Mon Jan 10, 2011 7:50 am

Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - June 2020

Sun Jun 14, 2020 7:22 pm

dtw2hyd wrote:
You raised an interesting topic. Knowing how COVID-19 survives on organic matter vs artificial surfaces, particularly plastic, I am of the opinion US should stop packaging food in plastic bags. It is a nightmare to cut open and throw away plastic packaging. I would like to hear other opinions.


Here in Connecticut at least, single use plastic bags are banned in grocery stores. However, plastic is still used in packaging individual items (e.g. bread).
 
anrec80
Posts: 2740
Joined: Mon Jan 10, 2011 7:50 am

Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - June 2020

Sun Jun 14, 2020 7:25 pm

StarAC17 wrote:
Thankfully medical experts are now debating the cost/benefit analysis of the lockdowns while some are content to keep people essentially away from each other there is finally a debate about how to proceed on all fronts on the pandemic. Because thankfully not all of them agree and some are actually saying that the government has moved the goalposts and they should be called out on this.

The mental health costs are being looked at, where in BC the death from opioids was 4 times that of Covid in May.
The economic costs to small business especially
The costs to children not being able to play and interact is being looked at and even adults not being able to have contact with each other
Even the most medically conscious people out there are getting fed up and stir crazy.


Yepp. All this had to be thought of before you impose a ban. And, as always, before you impose any ban, you have to have a story as to how and when you will be lifting it. But all they thought about banning, and now all these “phased reopenings”.
 
GDB
Posts: 13617
Joined: Wed May 23, 2001 6:25 pm

Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - June 2020

Sun Jun 14, 2020 9:04 pm

scbriml wrote:
GDB wrote:
Quite understandable, here's what you said in song form;
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bNEMxeI6-rE


Quite brilliant! :rotfl:


Here's her latest;

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6FbShXAaZ4g
 
KFTG
Posts: 787
Joined: Sun Apr 28, 2019 12:08 am

Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - June 2020

Sun Jun 14, 2020 9:28 pm

zkojq wrote:
santi319 wrote:
Certainly you can’t be locked down for 6 months, there are far more dangerous health risks from that, specially mentally.


:redflag: :redflag:
Nope, that's a myth and, let's be honest, it's concern trolling.

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/arti ... d=12333030

We are not staying at home for 6 effing months. It isn’t going happen. Period.
 
santi319
Posts: 986
Joined: Thu Dec 29, 2005 3:24 pm

Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - June 2020

Sun Jun 14, 2020 10:20 pm

KFTG wrote:
zkojq wrote:
santi319 wrote:
Certainly you can’t be locked down for 6 months, there are far more dangerous health risks from that, specially mentally.


:redflag: :redflag:
Nope, that's a myth and, let's be honest, it's concern trolling.

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/arti ... d=12333030

We are not staying at home for 6 effing months. It isn’t going happen. Period.


I wouldn’t pay mind at a news article from New Zealand. They were barely on lockdown for a couple of months.

I stand by what I say, being lockdown for an extensive period of time takes a toll on your health. Its a fact.
 
StarAC17
Posts: 3795
Joined: Thu Aug 07, 2003 11:54 am

Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - June 2020

Mon Jun 15, 2020 4:53 am

anrec80 wrote:
StarAC17 wrote:
Thankfully medical experts are now debating the cost/benefit analysis of the lockdowns while some are content to keep people essentially away from each other there is finally a debate about how to proceed on all fronts on the pandemic. Because thankfully not all of them agree and some are actually saying that the government has moved the goalposts and they should be called out on this.

The mental health costs are being looked at, where in BC the death from opioids was 4 times that of Covid in May.
The economic costs to small business especially
The costs to children not being able to play and interact is being looked at and even adults not being able to have contact with each other
Even the most medically conscious people out there are getting fed up and stir crazy.


Yepp. All this had to be thought of before you impose a ban. And, as always, before you impose any ban, you have to have a story as to how and when you will be lifting it. But all they thought about banning, and now all these “phased reopenings”.


So while Covid19 might be bad for the developing world there are some saving graces for developing countries to be spared the worst of it. Here are a few.

- Younger population, average age is 18 in Africa. This disease hits the elderly and in a lot of places the average age of death from Covid19 is actually older than the average lifespan
- Less overweight population.
- Even if you are in slums you are outside most of the time. I have walked through the Kibera slum in Nairobi and everyone is outside and can easily distance and outdoor transmission is low.
- Probably not vitamin D deficient.

anrec80 wrote:
StarAC17 wrote:
Thankfully medical experts are now debating the cost/benefit analysis of the lockdowns while some are content to keep people essentially away from each other there is finally a debate about how to proceed on all fronts on the pandemic. Because thankfully not all of them agree and some are actually saying that the government has moved the goalposts and they should be called out on this.

The mental health costs are being looked at, where in BC the death from opioids was 4 times that of Covid in May.
The economic costs to small business especially
The costs to children not being able to play and interact is being looked at and even adults not being able to have contact with each other
Even the most medically conscious people out there are getting fed up and stir crazy.


Yepp. All this had to be thought of before you impose a ban. And, as always, before you impose any ban, you have to have a story as to how and when you will be lifting it. But all they thought about banning, and now all these “phased reopenings”.


There seems to be no logic especially where I live in the Greater Toronto Area. The chief medical officer of health said he wants less than 100 new cases per day to move to the next phase of reopening. Most of the province is now on phase 2 and the Greater Toronto Area is still in phase one with say 200 new cases a day and declining hospitalizations and increasing recoveries.

In a province with 14 million people which would be the fifth largest US state 100 new cases seems not realistic at all where some doctors say Ontario could sustain up to 1,100 new cases a day and not stress the healthcare system.

anrec80 wrote:
dtw2hyd wrote:
You raised an interesting topic. Knowing how COVID-19 survives on organic matter vs artificial surfaces, particularly plastic, I am of the opinion US should stop packaging food in plastic bags. It is a nightmare to cut open and throw away plastic packaging. I would like to hear other opinions.


Here in Connecticut at least, single use plastic bags are banned in grocery stores. However, plastic is still used in packaging individual items (e.g. bread).


A side effect of Covid19, plastic usage has skyrocketed after all the work done to push reusable bags. I actually got into a little spat with a kid at a grocery store that has now banned reusable bags. He wanted to give me a plastic bag and said he wouldn't charge me ( grocery stores are forced to charge 5 cents a bag) I said no, he was uncomfortable. I told him to scan the items and I would bag them myself and not hold the grocery store responsible if I got Covid. Needless to say, I'm not going back there.

My employer has also said we can't use the water cooler and they have replaced it with bottled water (which is a total waste). We can't use the fridges and microwave either which is the stupidest thing I can think of. Even break rooms in hospitals can use those amenities, This is a bank by the way.

https://blogs.worldbank.org/voices/plas ... eset-clock
Engineers Rule The World!!!!!
 
anrec80
Posts: 2740
Joined: Mon Jan 10, 2011 7:50 am

Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - June 2020

Mon Jun 15, 2020 5:16 am

StarAC17 wrote:
So while Covid19 might be bad for the developing world there are some saving graces for developing countries to be spared the worst of it. Here are a few.

- Younger population, average age is 18 in Africa. This disease hits the elderly and in a lot of places the average age of death from Covid19 is actually older than the average lifespan
- Less overweight population.
- Even if you are in slums you are outside most of the time. I have walked through the Kibera slum in Nairobi and everyone is outside and can easily distance and outdoor transmission is low.
- Probably not vitamin D deficient.


There are really many variables in the transmission. In Belarus, for example, they did not do anything at all - no shutdowns, no quarantine measures, and I don't even think social distancing recommendations. And turned out to be not too much of a deal.

StarAC17 wrote:
There seems to be no logic especially where I live in the Greater Toronto Area. The chief medical officer of health said he wants less than 100 new cases per day to move to the next phase of reopening. Most of the province is now on phase 2 and the Greater Toronto Area is still in phase one with say 200 new cases a day and declining hospitalizations and increasing recoveries.

In a province with 14 million people which would be the fifth largest US state 100 new cases seems not realistic at all where some doctors say Ontario could sustain up to 1,100 new cases a day and not stress the healthcare system.


This is what I am talking as well - you have capacity and can handle - open up and do not stress-test the society.

To add it all - in Russia they are doing mass antibody tests. Out of 50.000 people tested it turned out that about 15% of population (in Moscow at least) has antibodies (assuming that those 50K represent a quality statistical sample). I guess in New York or other major hard hit cities you have maybe as many or even more. That means you are probably at 1/4 - 1/3 of way to herd immunity anyway - and the harder the hit was in a specific area, the closer you are.
 
olle
Posts: 1893
Joined: Tue Feb 06, 2007 3:38 am

Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - June 2020

Mon Jun 15, 2020 9:30 am

in many countries the real death toll seems to be incorrectly reporeted.

Chile has 2 reportings one on 5000 and one of 3000.

Spain has stopped reporting at all and use the numbers to open up; Not mentioning that there is close 17-18000 death that is not explained.

https://www.thelocal.es/20200613/spains ... ut-on-hold

Russia do not seems to report correct numbers as well they have doubled the death count for April.

https://www.businessinsider.com/coronav ... ?r=US&IR=T
 
KFTG
Posts: 787
Joined: Sun Apr 28, 2019 12:08 am

Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - June 2020

Mon Jun 15, 2020 9:52 am

Yes there is an issue with reporting.
There is a difference between someone dying FROM COVID-19 vs. someone dying WITH COVID-19.
I suspect that's the issue.
 
User avatar
Aesma
Posts: 12947
Joined: Sat Nov 14, 2009 6:14 am

Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - June 2020

Mon Jun 15, 2020 10:08 am

I think now we can use the excess number of death as a good ballpark, even if not perfect (for example difficult to die of a road accident in April in France when most people had to stay home, my cars didn't move for 2 months.

anrec80 : does Belarus have tourism ? Business travel ?

I have no problem with reopening as long as leaders are clear that the virus is still there and that people should be careful, especially vulnerable people. And that something is done to help vulnerable people that still want to stay home. As well as for people quarantining. And finally, testing and tracing must be done thoroughly.

As for antibody tests, keep in mind there are literally hundreds of companies making those, with various reliabilities. In France a study made with a presumably good test took people who had the virus for certain (medical professionals with 2 positive PCR tests) and found that 20% of them tested negative for antibodies. Not great.
New Technology is the name we give to stuff that doesn't work yet. Douglas Adams
 
User avatar
casinterest
Posts: 11016
Joined: Sat Feb 12, 2005 5:30 am

Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - June 2020

Mon Jun 15, 2020 4:27 pm

The FDA has removed emergency use authorization for HydroxyChloroquine and chloroquine after clinical lab failures.
https://thehill.com/policy/healthcare/5 ... hloroquine

In revoking the emergency authorization, FDA noted that recent data from a large randomized controlled trial showed no difference between using hydroxychloroquine and standard COVID treatment alone.


However, because the drugs are on the market and approved for other uses, it could still be prescribed for "off-label" use in COVID patients. Clinical trials studying the drugs can also continue. The World Health Organization and the National Institutes of Health are still conducting trails.




Meanwhile,
Here are the current treatment plans being pursued.

https://www.npr.org/sections/health-sho ... evelopment

interesting new anti-viral on the way. Hopefully this one or a similar one can be used. Anyone know if Remdesivir can be made into a pill?

But a new kind of antiviral drug that appears promising is called EIDD-2801. It was created by scientists at a not-for-profit biotech company owned by Emory University. Studies in animals have shown it can reduce the symptoms of SARS, another disease caused by a coronavirus. Last month, the pharmaceutical giant Merck signed a collaborative agreement with Ridgeback Biotherapeutics to develop EIDD-2801, which has already begun testing in humans in the United Kingdom. One significant advantage EIDD-2801 has over remdesivir is that it can be taken as a pill rather than intravenously.
Where ever you go, there you are.
 
User avatar
Aesma
Posts: 12947
Joined: Sat Nov 14, 2009 6:14 am

Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - June 2020

Mon Jun 15, 2020 8:30 pm

In France a center has now been opened to treat people who have recovered from COVID, except they feel like crap. Apparently for some of them it's PTSD, some it's the loss of muscle/exercising has made them weak, but for some, it's the immune system running amok.

Most are in their 20-30-40, with no comorbidities...
New Technology is the name we give to stuff that doesn't work yet. Douglas Adams
 
Jalap
Posts: 626
Joined: Thu Oct 18, 2007 4:25 pm

Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - June 2020

Tue Jun 16, 2020 12:05 am

It's getting very clear why we'll be having a second wave.
In many countries, the measures taken have reduced the virus to manageable amounts.
Now that we enjoy life with little virus, people claim unneeded panic.
Is it really so hard to understand that the world would have looked entirely different without those measures?
Do you really need to crash first to understand the importance of crash prevention?
And in this case, people don't care much about the crash anyway. Elderly and ill people deserve to die, it's only natural...

Depressing.
 
KFTG
Posts: 787
Joined: Sun Apr 28, 2019 12:08 am

Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - June 2020

Tue Jun 16, 2020 6:44 am

New Zealand's "vacation" from SARS-COV-2 cases has come to an end, surprising no one with a functional brain.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/ ... st-updates
 
tommy1808
Posts: 12756
Joined: Thu Nov 21, 2013 3:24 pm

Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - June 2020

Tue Jun 16, 2020 7:59 am

KFTG wrote:
New Zealand's "vacation" from SARS-COV-2 cases has come to an end, surprising no one with a functional brain.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/ ... st-updates


Did you actually read the article? Covid vacation would be over if they had community spread, no one with a function brain is surprised that travelers could actually bring the virus with them.

“They had no contact with anybody else during that trip,” added Bloomfield.

He was “not nervous” that the women had infected anyone else, adding that they would now remain in self-isolation with a relative in Wellington.


Best regards
Thomas
Well, there is prophecy in the bible after all: 2 Timothy 3:1-6
 
KFTG
Posts: 787
Joined: Sun Apr 28, 2019 12:08 am

Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - June 2020

Tue Jun 16, 2020 8:02 am

Yes, I read it.

New Zealand has recorded two new cases of Covid-19, their first cases in weeks.
 
tommy1808
Posts: 12756
Joined: Thu Nov 21, 2013 3:24 pm

Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - June 2020

Tue Jun 16, 2020 8:05 am

KFTG wrote:
Yes, I read it.

New Zealand has recorded two new cases of Covid-19, their first cases in weeks.


They still didn´t get it in NZ.

best regards
Thomas
Well, there is prophecy in the bible after all: 2 Timothy 3:1-6
 
SESGDL
Posts: 2890
Joined: Sat Jan 13, 2001 6:25 am

Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - June 2020

Tue Jun 16, 2020 2:41 pm

Encouraging news on the treatment front...

Dexamethasone is first life-saving coronavirus drug
https://www.bbc.com/news/health-53061281

Jeremy
 
User avatar
casinterest
Posts: 11016
Joined: Sat Feb 12, 2005 5:30 am

Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - June 2020

Tue Jun 16, 2020 4:56 pm

US CDC Report.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/06/15/politics ... index.html

There was a total of 1,761,503 cases of Covid-19 and 103,700 related deaths in the country between January 22 (when the first case was confirmed) and May 30, according to the surveillance report, published in the CDC's Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report. The data come from local, state and federal sources and is consistent with those reported through the Johns Hopkins University Coronavirus Resource Center.
Overall, 184,673 (14%) patients were hospitalized, 29,837 (2%) were admitted to an intensive care unit (ICU), and 71,116 (5%) died. Hospitalizations are six times higher and deaths are 12 times higher among those who reported underlying conditions. The most common underlying conditions were cardiovascular disease (32%), diabetes (30%) and chronic lung disease (18%).
Where ever you go, there you are.
 
Dieuwer
Posts: 2326
Joined: Tue Dec 26, 2017 6:27 pm

Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - June 2020

Tue Jun 16, 2020 4:59 pm

71,116/1,761,503 = 4%.
 
StarAC17
Posts: 3795
Joined: Thu Aug 07, 2003 11:54 am

Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - June 2020

Tue Jun 16, 2020 5:01 pm

KFTG wrote:
New Zealand's "vacation" from SARS-COV-2 cases has come to an end, surprising no one with a functional brain.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/ ... st-updates


They learned a lesson that there will be no exceptions to the 14 day quarantine for some time.

This is what all countries will have to deal with going forward. How best to handle international travelers who might have Covid as a 14 day quarantine going forward indefinitely is not realistic long term.
Engineers Rule The World!!!!!
 
User avatar
casinterest
Posts: 11016
Joined: Sat Feb 12, 2005 5:30 am

Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - June 2020

Tue Jun 16, 2020 5:09 pm

Dieuwer wrote:
71,116/1,761,503 = 4%.



Maybe the author wanted to point out that we should look at the CDC's current website where it is ~5.5%

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-nc ... in-us.html

115,644/2,085,769=5.544%
Where ever you go, there you are.
 
tommy1808
Posts: 12756
Joined: Thu Nov 21, 2013 3:24 pm

Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - June 2020

Tue Jun 16, 2020 5:16 pm

Dieuwer wrote:
71,116/1,761,503 = 4%.


103.700/1.761.503 = 5.9%

Its badly written, the 71k are another time frame with an unknown number of infected.

Also weird that 40k supposedly never made it into an ICU bed. I would think there is a lot to update about this article.

Best regards
Thomas
Well, there is prophecy in the bible after all: 2 Timothy 3:1-6
 
Dieuwer
Posts: 2326
Joined: Tue Dec 26, 2017 6:27 pm

Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - June 2020

Tue Jun 16, 2020 5:18 pm

Either way, 4% or 5%, seems high to me compared to the average mortality rate of 0.3%. https://www.worldometers.info/coronavir ... eath-rate/
 
User avatar
casinterest
Posts: 11016
Joined: Sat Feb 12, 2005 5:30 am

Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - June 2020

Tue Jun 16, 2020 5:25 pm

Dieuwer wrote:
Either way, 4% or 5%, seems high to me.



Well, these are reported cases, and we still need better data on what "Unreported cases" look like.

I know of some poeple that have gone back after being sick and never reporting it, and then getting antibody tests, and then they are counted in some states since they have them.

https://www.livescience.com/cdc-combine ... tests.html

So our count of unreported is difficult to pin down.
Where ever you go, there you are.
 
Dieuwer
Posts: 2326
Joined: Tue Dec 26, 2017 6:27 pm

Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - June 2020

Tue Jun 16, 2020 5:28 pm

casinterest wrote:
Dieuwer wrote:
Either way, 4% or 5%, seems high to me.



Well, these are reported cases, and we still need better data on what "Unreported cases" look like.

I know of some poeple that have gone back after being sick and never reporting it, and then getting antibody tests, and then they are counted in some states since they have them.

https://www.livescience.com/cdc-combine ... tests.html

So our count of unreported is difficult to pin down.


The order of magnitude difference would mean an unreported count of 10:1. Seems ridiculously high.
I also wonder how long the CDC will keep their "Warning Level 3, Avoid Nonessential Travel" notice on their website. Considering that tons of Americans are flying all over the country already...
 
User avatar
casinterest
Posts: 11016
Joined: Sat Feb 12, 2005 5:30 am

Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - June 2020

Tue Jun 16, 2020 5:49 pm

Dieuwer wrote:
casinterest wrote:
Dieuwer wrote:
Either way, 4% or 5%, seems high to me.



Well, these are reported cases, and we still need better data on what "Unreported cases" look like.

I know of some poeple that have gone back after being sick and never reporting it, and then getting antibody tests, and then they are counted in some states since they have them.

https://www.livescience.com/cdc-combine ... tests.html

So our count of unreported is difficult to pin down.


The order of magnitude difference would mean an unreported count of 10:1. Seems ridiculously high.
I also wonder how long the CDC will keep their "Warning Level 3, Avoid Nonessential Travel" notice on their website. Considering that tons of Americans are flying all over the country already...


I imagine we are about to go back into serious lockdown in many areas.
Texas, NC, Florida are getting a bit out of control. However being strongly conservative states, there will need to be a massive overload prior to rolling back the openings.
Where ever you go, there you are.
 
Dieuwer
Posts: 2326
Joined: Tue Dec 26, 2017 6:27 pm

Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - June 2020

Tue Jun 16, 2020 5:54 pm

casinterest wrote:
Dieuwer wrote:
casinterest wrote:


Well, these are reported cases, and we still need better data on what "Unreported cases" look like.

I know of some poeple that have gone back after being sick and never reporting it, and then getting antibody tests, and then they are counted in some states since they have them.

https://www.livescience.com/cdc-combine ... tests.html

So our count of unreported is difficult to pin down.


The order of magnitude difference would mean an unreported count of 10:1. Seems ridiculously high.
I also wonder how long the CDC will keep their "Warning Level 3, Avoid Nonessential Travel" notice on their website. Considering that tons of Americans are flying all over the country already...


I imagine we are about to go back into serious lockdown in many areas.
Texas, NC, Florida are getting a bit out of control. However being strongly conservative states, there will need to be a massive overload prior to rolling back the openings.


I don't think lock down can be implemented. People simply will point at the protests and ignore what politicians say. And if you want to enforce it by using the police,...good luck to that. People will get even more mad than they already are. So, no. The "lock down ship" has sailed.
 
tommy1808
Posts: 12756
Joined: Thu Nov 21, 2013 3:24 pm

Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - June 2020

Tue Jun 16, 2020 6:07 pm

Dieuwer wrote:
casinterest wrote:
Dieuwer wrote:
Either way, 4% or 5%, seems high to me.



Well, these are reported cases, and we still need better data on what "Unreported cases" look like.

I know of some poeple that have gone back after being sick and never reporting it, and then getting antibody tests, and then they are counted in some states since they have them.

https://www.livescience.com/cdc-combine ... tests.html

So our count of unreported is difficult to pin down.


The order of magnitude difference would mean an unreported count of 10:1. Seems ridiculously high.


With that high number 1.4% of anyone contracting it dies, if an order of magnitude is too high, the rate goes up..

1.4% is a lot.

Best regards
Thomas
Well, there is prophecy in the bible after all: 2 Timothy 3:1-6
 
flyguy89
Posts: 2829
Joined: Tue Feb 24, 2009 6:43 pm

Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - June 2020

Tue Jun 16, 2020 6:31 pm

Dieuwer wrote:
casinterest wrote:
Dieuwer wrote:

The order of magnitude difference would mean an unreported count of 10:1. Seems ridiculously high.
I also wonder how long the CDC will keep their "Warning Level 3, Avoid Nonessential Travel" notice on their website. Considering that tons of Americans are flying all over the country already...


I imagine we are about to go back into serious lockdown in many areas.
Texas, NC, Florida are getting a bit out of control. However being strongly conservative states, there will need to be a massive overload prior to rolling back the openings.


I don't think lock down can be implemented. People simply will point at the protests and ignore what politicians say. And if you want to enforce it by using the police,...good luck to that. People will get even more mad than they already are. So, no. The "lock down ship" has sailed.

:checkmark:

The expert class has really lost their credibility on this...COVID is so dangerous we had to sic the police on a large funeral gathering, but then large-scale demonstration gatherings were not just ignored but cheered on by them (and I say this as someone who agrees with the protests). The amount of doublespeak was astounding.
 
User avatar
casinterest
Posts: 11016
Joined: Sat Feb 12, 2005 5:30 am

Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - June 2020

Tue Jun 16, 2020 6:50 pm

flyguy89 wrote:
Dieuwer wrote:
casinterest wrote:

I imagine we are about to go back into serious lockdown in many areas.
Texas, NC, Florida are getting a bit out of control. However being strongly conservative states, there will need to be a massive overload prior to rolling back the openings.


I don't think lock down can be implemented. People simply will point at the protests and ignore what politicians say. And if you want to enforce it by using the police,...good luck to that. People will get even more mad than they already are. So, no. The "lock down ship" has sailed.

:checkmark:

The expert class has really lost their credibility on this...COVID is so dangerous we had to sic the police on a large funeral gathering, but then large-scale demonstration gatherings were not just ignored but cheered on by them (and I say this as someone who agrees with the protests). The amount of doublespeak was astounding.


I think you are watching to much right wing television. Expert class ?
Please define.
Where ever you go, there you are.

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: 32andBelow, Aesma, casinterest, einsteinboricua, hoons90, ltbewr, lugie, m66, Majestic-12 [Bot], maxfly, N583JB, StarAC17, VolvoBus, wirkey, zakuivcustom and 33 guests

Popular Searches On Airliners.net

Top Photos of Last:   24 Hours  •  48 Hours  •  7 Days  •  30 Days  •  180 Days  •  365 Days  •  All Time

Military Aircraft Every type from fighters to helicopters from air forces around the globe

Classic Airliners Props and jets from the good old days

Flight Decks Views from inside the cockpit

Aircraft Cabins Passenger cabin shots showing seat arrangements as well as cargo aircraft interior

Cargo Aircraft Pictures of great freighter aircraft

Government Aircraft Aircraft flying government officials

Helicopters Our large helicopter section. Both military and civil versions

Blimps / Airships Everything from the Goodyear blimp to the Zeppelin

Night Photos Beautiful shots taken while the sun is below the horizon

Accidents Accident, incident and crash related photos

Air to Air Photos taken by airborne photographers of airborne aircraft

Special Paint Schemes Aircraft painted in beautiful and original liveries

Airport Overviews Airport overviews from the air or ground

Tails and Winglets Tail and Winglet closeups with beautiful airline logos