Page 5 of 6

Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - June 2020

Posted: Thu Jun 18, 2020 3:19 pm
by frmrCapCadet
Derico - an unfortunately true and accurate analogy. safe socializing/safe sex. Both possible

Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - June 2020

Posted: Thu Jun 18, 2020 4:06 pm
by casinterest
A further study showing the relationship of blood type to Risk has been released.

https://directorsblog.nih.gov/2020/06/1 ... e-disease/

The two stretches of DNA implicated as harboring risks for severe COVID-19 are known to carry some intriguing genes, including one that determines blood type and others that play various roles in the immune system. In fact, the findings suggest that people with blood type A face a 50 percent greater risk of needing oxygen support or a ventilator should they become infected with the novel coronavirus. In contrast, people with blood type O appear to have about a 50 percent reduced risk of severe COVID-19.


https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101 ... 20114991v1

Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - June 2020

Posted: Thu Jun 18, 2020 5:31 pm
by Dieuwer
casinterest wrote:
A further study showing the relationship of blood type to Risk has been released.

https://directorsblog.nih.gov/2020/06/1 ... e-disease/

The two stretches of DNA implicated as harboring risks for severe COVID-19 are known to carry some intriguing genes, including one that determines blood type and others that play various roles in the immune system. In fact, the findings suggest that people with blood type A face a 50 percent greater risk of needing oxygen support or a ventilator should they become infected with the novel coronavirus. In contrast, people with blood type O appear to have about a 50 percent reduced risk of severe COVID-19.


https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101 ... 20114991v1


Are you suggesting that COVID-19 specifically is targeting blood type A, or is it just happenstance?

Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - June 2020

Posted: Thu Jun 18, 2020 5:35 pm
by casinterest
Dieuwer wrote:
casinterest wrote:
A further study showing the relationship of blood type to Risk has been released.

https://directorsblog.nih.gov/2020/06/1 ... e-disease/

The two stretches of DNA implicated as harboring risks for severe COVID-19 are known to carry some intriguing genes, including one that determines blood type and others that play various roles in the immune system. In fact, the findings suggest that people with blood type A face a 50 percent greater risk of needing oxygen support or a ventilator should they become infected with the novel coronavirus. In contrast, people with blood type O appear to have about a 50 percent reduced risk of severe COVID-19.


https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101 ... 20114991v1


Are you suggesting that COVID-19 specifically is targeting blood type A, or is it just happenstance?


We need more studies, but Covid is not targeting specific blood types. The idea is that your blood type may indicate your risk of becoming seriously ill with it.

Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - June 2020

Posted: Thu Jun 18, 2020 6:20 pm
by tommy1808
casinterest wrote:
Dieuwer wrote:
casinterest wrote:
A further study showing the relationship of blood type to Risk has been released.

https://directorsblog.nih.gov/2020/06/1 ... e-disease/



https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101 ... 20114991v1


Are you suggesting that COVID-19 specifically is targeting blood type A, or is it just happenstance?


We need more studies, but Covid is not targeting specific blood types. The idea is that your blood type may indicate your risk of becoming seriously ill with it.


It wasn't the first..
https://www.sciencefocus.com/news/blood ... ronavirus/

And I guess specific as viruses can be, a coincidental string of a few blood type A infected very down the tree of spread would have been enough to select for something working better in blood type A.

Best regards
Thomas

Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - June 2020

Posted: Thu Jun 18, 2020 10:30 pm
by dtw2hyd
One of the COVID19 modeling site predicts only three states are on track to contain the virus. Michigan is one of the three. Haven't looked deep into their methods or affiliation, keep the salt.

https://www.detroitnews.com/story/news/ ... 205580001/

Michigan Schools are asking for $1B to reopen schools. Their estimates seem to be reasonable. They are not asking for anything fancy.

https://www.detroitnews.com/story/news/ ... 217625001/

Why the states escaped first wave screwed now is beyond reason. 23 states are on the wrong path.

Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - June 2020

Posted: Thu Jun 18, 2020 10:38 pm
by Dieuwer
dtw2hyd wrote:
One of the COVID19 modeling site predicts only three states are on track to contain the virus. Michigan is one of the three. Haven't looked deep into their methods or affiliation, keep the salt.

https://www.detroitnews.com/story/news/ ... 205580001/

Michigan Schools are asking for $1B to reopen schools. Their estimates seem to be reasonable. They are not asking for anything fancy.

https://www.detroitnews.com/story/news/ ... 1m7625001/

Why the states escaped first wave screwed now is beyond reason. 23 states are on the wrong path.


LOL, Michigan! :D
Think not.
They are not even in the top 10 of best states. Those are: HI, NY, MA, NJ, CT, IL, MN, CD, DE, and CO.

https://rt.live/

Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - June 2020

Posted: Fri Jun 19, 2020 5:09 pm
by Dieuwer
According to this map, COVID-19 cases are now once again skyrocketing in China. Also, many Eastern European countries and Australia are no longer doing well.

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/202 ... -maps.html

Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - June 2020

Posted: Fri Jun 19, 2020 6:26 pm
by Dieuwer

Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - June 2020

Posted: Fri Jun 19, 2020 9:47 pm
by casinterest
It looks like for the first time since May 1 the US is going to top 30K new cases today
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

The death toll is still below 1K per day, but deaths trail cases.

We will see in the next two weeks what occurs,

Florida, Texas, California, and Arizona are leading the pack.
Tennessee, North Carolina, Georgia and South Carolina are right behind.


The uptick in cases in these states in the last week is a bit concerning.

Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - June 2020

Posted: Fri Jun 19, 2020 10:22 pm
by flyguy89
casinterest wrote:
It looks like for the first time since May 1 the US is going to top 30K new cases today
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

The death toll is still below 1K per day, but deaths trail cases.

We will see in the next two weeks what occurs,

Florida, Texas, California, and Arizona are leading the pack.
Tennessee, North Carolina, Georgia and South Carolina are right behind.


The uptick in cases in these states in the last week is a bit concerning.

One thing being discussed that may be a silver lining is the relatively low number of deaths. Even though it's a trailing indicator, these spikes have been largely driven by infections among the younger, less at-risk crowd, so some doctors are speculating we may at least not see a huge spike in deaths like we did when COVID first hit.

Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - June 2020

Posted: Sat Jun 20, 2020 12:36 am
by casinterest
flyguy89 wrote:
casinterest wrote:
It looks like for the first time since May 1 the US is going to top 30K new cases today
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

The death toll is still below 1K per day, but deaths trail cases.

We will see in the next two weeks what occurs,

Florida, Texas, California, and Arizona are leading the pack.
Tennessee, North Carolina, Georgia and South Carolina are right behind.


The uptick in cases in these states in the last week is a bit concerning.

One thing being discussed that may be a silver lining is the relatively low number of deaths. Even though it's a trailing indicator, these spikes have been largely driven by infections among the younger, less at-risk crowd, so some doctors are speculating we may at least not see a huge spike in deaths like we did when COVID first hit.


I have seen the numbers, but it means either the susceptible are doing a brilliant job at social distancing , or we are just on the verge. We will need a few weeks to see. I myself am freaked as I am sure others with elderly friends and relatives are. Most of them have started to try to resume "normal". Shopping, exercise, get togethers. The initial isolation has worn thin.

Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - June 2020

Posted: Sat Jun 20, 2020 12:41 am
by Dieuwer
It always seems to be all-or-nothing in this country. Either we all need to be locked-up for the greater good, or people scream about "Rights!" and refuse to social distance and wear face masks.
How about the middle road? No strict lock-down, but when you do go out please social distance and wear a mask in public? How difficult can it be....

Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - June 2020

Posted: Sat Jun 20, 2020 12:54 am
by casinterest
Dieuwer wrote:
It always seems to be all-or-nothing in this country. Either we all need to be locked-up for the greater good, or people scream about "Rights!" and refuse to social distance and wear face masks.
How about the middle road? No strict lock-down, but when you do go out please social distance and wear a mask in public? How difficult can it be....


It is difficult with obstinate, "do it my way", kind of folks.


Either way, Brazil is having a hell of a day.
+55 K new cases.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavir ... ry/brazil/

Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - June 2020

Posted: Sat Jun 20, 2020 12:57 am
by Dieuwer
casinterest wrote:
Dieuwer wrote:
It always seems to be all-or-nothing in this country. Either we all need to be locked-up for the greater good, or people scream about "Rights!" and refuse to social distance and wear face masks.
How about the middle road? No strict lock-down, but when you do go out please social distance and wear a mask in public? How difficult can it be....


It is difficult with obstinate, "do it my way", kind of folks.


Either way, Brazil is having a hell of a day.
+55 K new cases.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavir ... ry/brazil/


In Brazil those in charge decided to stick their heads in the sand and pretend COVID-19 doesn't exist.
Then again, I read an argument somewhere against a lock-down as that would have cratered the economy so bad that the Real most likely would have crashed and hyperinflation started.

Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - June 2020

Posted: Sat Jun 20, 2020 3:56 am
by PPVRA
Dieuwer wrote:
casinterest wrote:
Dieuwer wrote:
It always seems to be all-or-nothing in this country. Either we all need to be locked-up for the greater good, or people scream about "Rights!" and refuse to social distance and wear face masks.
How about the middle road? No strict lock-down, but when you do go out please social distance and wear a mask in public? How difficult can it be....


It is difficult with obstinate, "do it my way", kind of folks.


Either way, Brazil is having a hell of a day.
+55 K new cases.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavir ... ry/brazil/


In Brazil those in charge decided to stick their heads in the sand and pretend COVID-19 doesn't exist.
Then again, I read an argument somewhere against a lock-down as that would have cratered the economy so bad that the Real most likely would have crashed and hyperinflation started.


Bolsonaro wants a herd immunity strategy, but he isn’t getting one. Governors and mayors have imposed social distancing orders of varying degrees, including lockdowns. But people are not respecting it, particularly the poor, who have little choice but to go out and earn their daily living.

Inflation has been kept under control. No issues there.

Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - June 2020

Posted: Sat Jun 20, 2020 4:32 am
by Newark727
Has a herd immunity strategy worked anywhere yet?

Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - June 2020

Posted: Sat Jun 20, 2020 4:47 am
by PPVRA
Newark727 wrote:
Has a herd immunity strategy worked anywhere yet?


Sweden has successfully flattened the curve. And their case fatality rates are coming down:

https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/coro ... WE~NOR~DNK

(Compare Sweden, Denmark and Norway)


New daily deaths and new daily hospitalizations are way down from a month or two ago.

Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - June 2020

Posted: Sat Jun 20, 2020 6:39 am
by tommy1808
PPVRA wrote:
Newark727 wrote:
Has a herd immunity strategy worked anywhere yet?


Sweden has successfully flattened the curve. And their case fatality rates are coming down:



But not due to herd immunity.

Best regards
Thomas

Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - June 2020

Posted: Sat Jun 20, 2020 6:45 am
by tommy1808
Dieuwer wrote:
How about the middle road? No strict lock-down, but when you do go out please social distance and wear a mask in public? How difficult can it be....


With a good chunk of the population simply refusing, and protesting "fascism" when told to wear mask, it is pretty hard.

But with a largely sane population that works fine, as evident in tons of places.

Best regards
Thomas

Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - June 2020

Posted: Sat Jun 20, 2020 7:05 am
by marcelh
PPVRA wrote:
Newark727 wrote:
Has a herd immunity strategy worked anywhere yet?


Sweden has successfully flattened the curve. And their case fatality rates are coming down:

https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/coro ... WE~NOR~DNK

(Compare Sweden, Denmark and Norway)


New daily deaths and new daily hospitalizations are way down from a month or two ago.

Or the Swedes have expanded testing....

Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - June 2020

Posted: Sat Jun 20, 2020 10:32 am
by melpax
Numbers have started increasing in the Australian state that I live in, Victoria. the level of new cases have started increasing over the past few days, 25 new cases reported today. The state premier has announced that restrictions will tightened back up, now no more than 5 guests per household, when the previous limit was 10, a maximum of 10 people for outdoor gatherings when the previous limit was 20. Gyms will still re-open on Monday as planned, with a maximum of 20 patrons per area, or 1 person per 4 sq meteres. With the gym that I go to, I have to book a timeslot for the class, or area of the gym that I want to go to or use. If I book a timeslot for the cardio area for example, I have a 45 minute timeslot, changerooms & lockers are closed, along with the usual 1.5m social distancing rules.

The Premier spoke about the possibility of interstate travel restrictions for those living in the worst hit Local Government areas (NSW is the only state that Victorians can travel freely to ATM), and if they were to re-impose lockdowns, they would occur in LGA's, and wouldn't be statewide.

Testing is also widespread here, any hint of a sore throat/cold/flu, and your GP will send you off to be tested, so no issues here on that front.

https://www.theage.com.au/national/vict ... 554j5.html

Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - June 2020

Posted: Sat Jun 20, 2020 11:39 am
by agill
marcelh wrote:
PPVRA wrote:
Newark727 wrote:
Has a herd immunity strategy worked anywhere yet?


Sweden has successfully flattened the curve. And their case fatality rates are coming down:

https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/coro ... WE~NOR~DNK

(Compare Sweden, Denmark and Norway)


New daily deaths and new daily hospitalizations are way down from a month or two ago.

Or the Swedes have expanded testing....

Yes I'd say most of that curve is because we test much more now.

Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - June 2020

Posted: Sat Jun 20, 2020 1:16 pm
by PPVRA
tommy1808 wrote:
PPVRA wrote:
Newark727 wrote:
Has a herd immunity strategy worked anywhere yet?


Sweden has successfully flattened the curve. And their case fatality rates are coming down:



But not due to herd immunity.

Best regards
Thomas


It takes a while to get there.

Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - June 2020

Posted: Sat Jun 20, 2020 1:25 pm
by PPVRA
agill wrote:
marcelh wrote:
PPVRA wrote:

Sweden has successfully flattened the curve. And their case fatality rates are coming down:

https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/coro ... WE~NOR~DNK

(Compare Sweden, Denmark and Norway)


New daily deaths and new daily hospitalizations are way down from a month or two ago.

Or the Swedes have expanded testing....

Yes I'd say most of that curve is because we test much more now.


Not just increase in testing, but because the disease is still spreading... you gotta have positive cases to cause that curve to bend like it’s doing.

The key here is that Sweden has learned how to mostly contain the harm (hospitalizations and deaths) without stamping out the disease completely.

Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - June 2020

Posted: Sat Jun 20, 2020 3:05 pm
by frmrCapCadet
I don't believe any country has had a 60% or more infection rate with the disease. I understand that is the level of infection at which 'herd immunity' is noticed. For all practical purposes herd immunity will only come from a vaccine, even partially effective one. Math modelling using available data is an important tool for epidemiologists, and for us.

Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - June 2020

Posted: Sun Jun 21, 2020 1:14 pm
by par13del
The spikes in Florida in Texas are being reported, what I am struggling to find are the numbers for hospital admissions, is there supposed to be a correlation of infected to admitted to death to recovered?
If the current spikes are due to increased testing, do we have to wait 2 weeks to see the effects of these test on medical facilities?

Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - June 2020

Posted: Sun Jun 21, 2020 3:52 pm
by PPVRA
par13del wrote:
is there supposed to be a correlation of infected to admitted to death to recovered?


There are so many different “rates” in different countries, states, cities.... such correlations I’d guess are influenced by many different factors, from demographic to health even to social.

Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - June 2020

Posted: Tue Jun 23, 2020 6:47 am
by Etika
PPVRA wrote:
Newark727 wrote:
Has a herd immunity strategy worked anywhere yet?


Sweden has successfully flattened the curve. And their case fatality rates are coming down:

https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/coro ... WE~NOR~DNK

(Compare Sweden, Denmark and Norway)


New daily deaths and new daily hospitalizations are way down from a month or two ago.


I don't see where the flattening of curve is? https://www.worldometers.info/coronavir ... ry/sweden/
Their biggest number of reported daily cases was on June 17 and it might again be broken this week once we are past the weekend dip on reporting. They do have managed to reduce case fatality, but it is still higher than their neighbors and the number of cases is far higher, so the total number of deaths is a lot higher.

Comparing the graphs of new cases or fatalities to their neighbors makes it difficult to call the result "successful" in any form:
https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/biwe ... IN~NOR~SWE

Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - June 2020

Posted: Tue Jun 23, 2020 6:50 am
by Etika
par13del wrote:
The spikes in Florida in Texas are being reported, what I am struggling to find are the numbers for hospital admissions, is there supposed to be a correlation of infected to admitted to death to recovered?
If the current spikes are due to increased testing, do we have to wait 2 weeks to see the effects of these test on medical facilities?


As a rough rule of thumb, the number of admitted patients lags number of positives test by about a week and number of deaths lags number of positive test by about two weeks.

Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - June 2020

Posted: Tue Jun 23, 2020 7:28 am
by Derico
tommy1808 wrote:
Dieuwer wrote:
How about the middle road? No strict lock-down, but when you do go out please social distance and wear a mask in public? How difficult can it be....


With a good chunk of the population simply refusing, and protesting "fascism" when told to wear mask, it is pretty hard.

But with a largely sane population that works fine, as evident in tons of places.

Best regards
Thomas


I won't mention places, but the countries where it is "out of control" are the ones with populist AND anti-science leaders, with weak and inadequate national and local government responses (regardless of the leader), and where the population has shown too ignorant, or too selfish, or too short of attention span to really do what is necessary.

In countries with strong clear leaders, a strong response from the federal and local governments, and a cooperating population the virus has been eliminated or suppressed.

In countries where at least two of the three factors above the virus is circulating but the curve is under control.

Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - June 2020

Posted: Tue Jun 23, 2020 8:12 am
by olle
Using blod plasma from person with anti bodies make virus dissapear in one day;

https://www.aftonbladet.se/nyheter/a/6j ... -pa-en-dag

New study: The virus disappears in one day

Coronas infected can get rid of the virus by getting blood plasma from people who have recovered and have antibodies.

This shows a new study from the Karolinska Institute.

"It's very promising," says Joakim Dillner, professor of infectious epidemiology.

Giving blood plasma, that is, what remains when blood cells are removed from the blood, is a proven method of treating infectious diseases. Now, researchers at the Karolinska Institute have made good results on people who are ill in covid-19.
"A majority of patients become negative for blood virus the next day," says Joakim Dillner, a professor of infectious epidemiology at the Karolinska Institute.


Get rid of the virus
The researchers have so far tested that the method is safe and applied it to a small group of patients. So far, no one has fully recovered, but viruses in the blood are a powerful marker for bad things for the patient, according to Joakim Dillner. If you can get rid of the virus in the blood, you are on the right path.

- We have not seen that patients have been saved to life, at least not yet, but the effect of getting rid of the virus from the blood - it is clear, he says.

Lots for processing
The third phase of the study is now underway , where patients will be treated for treatment and compared with a control group that is not receiving treatment. Only then can you be sure that the method really works, says Joakim Dillner.

- Since there are very few treatments that can be given at all, I think it can be of great importance, he says.

Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - June 2020

Posted: Tue Jun 23, 2020 12:21 pm
by PPVRA
Etika wrote:
PPVRA wrote:
Newark727 wrote:
Has a herd immunity strategy worked anywhere yet?


Sweden has successfully flattened the curve. And their case fatality rates are coming down:

https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/coro ... WE~NOR~DNK

(Compare Sweden, Denmark and Norway)


New daily deaths and new daily hospitalizations are way down from a month or two ago.


I don't see where the flattening of curve is? https://www.worldometers.info/coronavir ... ry/sweden/
Their biggest number of reported daily cases was on June 17 and it might again be broken this week once we are past the weekend dip on reporting. They do have managed to reduce case fatality, but it is still higher than their neighbors and the number of cases is far higher, so the total number of deaths is a lot higher.

Comparing the graphs of new cases or fatalities to their neighbors makes it difficult to call the result "successful" in any form:
https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/biwe ... IN~NOR~SWE


You’re looking at the wrong information. Flattening the curve has to do with keeping hospitalization rates below hospital capacity. Sweden was successful in this as their hospitals never went over 80% capacity.

Not all cases need hospitalization, indeed only a minority of cases are hospitalized, thus total cases are not relevant to the discussion of hospital capacity.

Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - June 2020

Posted: Tue Jun 23, 2020 6:52 pm
by Etika
PPVRA wrote:
Etika wrote:
PPVRA wrote:

Sweden has successfully flattened the curve. And their case fatality rates are coming down:

https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/coro ... WE~NOR~DNK

(Compare Sweden, Denmark and Norway)


New daily deaths and new daily hospitalizations are way down from a month or two ago.


I don't see where the flattening of curve is? https://www.worldometers.info/coronavir ... ry/sweden/
Their biggest number of reported daily cases was on June 17 and it might again be broken this week once we are past the weekend dip on reporting. They do have managed to reduce case fatality, but it is still higher than their neighbors and the number of cases is far higher, so the total number of deaths is a lot higher.

Comparing the graphs of new cases or fatalities to their neighbors makes it difficult to call the result "successful" in any form:
https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/biwe ... IN~NOR~SWE


You’re looking at the wrong information. Flattening the curve has to do with keeping hospitalization rates below hospital capacity. Sweden was successful in this as their hospitals never went over 80% capacity.

Not all cases need hospitalization, indeed only a minority of cases are hospitalized, thus total cases are not relevant to the discussion of hospital capacity.


While it is true that they have flattened the curve in that respect, their neighbors have shown that it is a very poor result compared to what could have been possible to do with similar situations. The whole desirability of flattening the curve was based on the premise that the kind of smothering that Sweden's neighbors managed to was not possible, so the best that could have been done is to flatten the curve. As that has been shown to be false, Sweden's results cannot be called successful.

It is also apparent in that their neighbors are opening travel to elsewhere in Schengen area - except Sweden. Sweden's strategy has let them with much more deaths per capita than their neighbors that had similar start and timing of the epidemic, still widely spreading disease, and thus isolated from their usually close neighbors. If the only criteria of success is that the hospital capability is not exceeded, then Sweden can be said to have succeeded. But not with any other criteria that one might use.

Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - June 2020

Posted: Wed Jun 24, 2020 5:18 am
by melpax
Panic buying starting again in Melbourne, with the increase in community transmitted cases here, talk of the hardest-hit suburbs being put back into lockdown hasn't helped.

The 2 big Supermarket chains have re-imposed purchase limits as a result.....

https://www.theage.com.au/national/coro ... 555j0.html

Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - June 2020

Posted: Wed Jun 24, 2020 5:53 am
by LOT767301ER
Etika wrote:
PPVRA wrote:
Etika wrote:

I don't see where the flattening of curve is? https://www.worldometers.info/coronavir ... ry/sweden/
Their biggest number of reported daily cases was on June 17 and it might again be broken this week once we are past the weekend dip on reporting. They do have managed to reduce case fatality, but it is still higher than their neighbors and the number of cases is far higher, so the total number of deaths is a lot higher.

Comparing the graphs of new cases or fatalities to their neighbors makes it difficult to call the result "successful" in any form:
https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/biwe ... IN~NOR~SWE


You’re looking at the wrong information. Flattening the curve has to do with keeping hospitalization rates below hospital capacity. Sweden was successful in this as their hospitals never went over 80% capacity.

Not all cases need hospitalization, indeed only a minority of cases are hospitalized, thus total cases are not relevant to the discussion of hospital capacity.


While it is true that they have flattened the curve in that respect, their neighbors have shown that it is a very poor result compared to what could have been possible to do with similar situations. The whole desirability of flattening the curve was based on the premise that the kind of smothering that Sweden's neighbors managed to was not possible, so the best that could have been done is to flatten the curve. As that has been shown to be false, Sweden's results cannot be called successful.

It is also apparent in that their neighbors are opening travel to elsewhere in Schengen area - except Sweden. Sweden's strategy has let them with much more deaths per capita than their neighbors that had similar start and timing of the epidemic, still widely spreading disease, and thus isolated from their usually close neighbors. If the only criteria of success is that the hospital capability is not exceeded, then Sweden can be said to have succeeded. But not with any other criteria that one might use.


The theory that Sweden is playing is long game. Denmark/Norway etc. are playing the short game so what you are describing is not apples to apples and saying Swedens results arent successful are completely misplaced until you analyze the metrics post-vaccine.

Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - June 2020

Posted: Wed Jun 24, 2020 11:19 pm
by Jalap
melpax wrote:
Panic buying starting again in Melbourne, with the increase in community transmitted cases here, talk of the hardest-hit suburbs being put back into lockdown hasn't helped.

The 2 big Supermarket chains have re-imposed purchase limits as a result.....

https://www.theage.com.au/national/coro ... 555j0.html

Pease don't say it's toilet paper again?

As for this kind of ourbreaks, it would really be helpfull if they did contact tracing to several degrees and order those individuals to quarantine. It would be so much more effective and less harmfull in general compared to a general lockdown of an area. Yet for some reason, people (or politicians) prefer a general lockdown to individual orders...

Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - June 2020

Posted: Thu Jun 25, 2020 1:22 am
by melpax
Jalap wrote:
melpax wrote:
]
Pease don't say it's toilet paper again?

As for this kind of ourbreaks, it would really be helpfull if they did contact tracing to several degrees and order those individuals to quarantine. It would be so much more effective and less harmfull in general compared to a general lockdown of an area. Yet for some reason, people (or politicians) prefer a general lockdown to individual orders...


I'm afraid it's toilet paper again.....

While contact tracing in these parts is through, the spike in infections is localised to a few suburbs, and one of the issues is that some of these suburbs have large non-english speaking populations where the messages to socially distance, and to isolate if ill or infected seem not to be understood, this is now being addressed.

Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - June 2020

Posted: Thu Jun 25, 2020 7:07 am
by olle
Antibidies tests show that over 17% of population in Stockholm last week had antibodies against Covid in the latest test:

The numbers has been increasing fast the last few weeks as shown below; Now big tests to share plasma with anti bodies is executed to risk groups in a try to decrease risk for them.

Right now the outbreak in Stockholm has been calming down the last week but Guthenburg area is hit bad.

Can this mean that while many Norwegian people go to "Western Gothia" region for their holiday houses that we might see a outbreak in Oslo after the summer?

The Scania region with Malmö has so far seen low numbers. Let see if it will stay this way.



https://www.dn.se/nyheter/sverige/karol ... stockholm/

Just over a sixth of Stockholmers tested by Karolinska University Laboratory last week had antibodies to covid-19. The results indicate a widespread spread of infection in society, according to the laboratory's manager Claes Ruth. However, Karin Tegmark Wisell of the Public Health Authority does not believe that the sample is a cross-section of the population.

The result, which SvD was the first to report , is the first from the mass testing of antibodies started in the Stockholm region. The testing is free for all Stockholmers and is carried out in 77 places.

- Last week, almost 24,000 antibody tests were performed. Of these, 17.2 percent were positive, says Claes Ruth, head of the Karolinska University Laboratory.

Is the result expected?

- Yes, the level is in line with what I had thought. It indicates that we have had a widespread spread of infection in Stockholm, says Claes Ruth.

When testing ongoing coronary infection, 13.8 percent of just over 14,000 tests showed positive results, that is, people were infected with the virus at the time of sampling.

The interest in sampling is enormous. On Wednesday new times were released and the places filled quickly. The pressure at the Karolinska University Laboratory is great and Claes Ruth talks about a chain that must function safely with information and booking, logistics, sampling and analysis. The staff work overtime and extrapass and at the same time as new appointments are made.

- We continue to work hard to strengthen the broad front and maximize accessibility, says Claes Ruth.

The Public Health Authority's survey, conducted from week 17 to week 21, shows that 10 percent of Stockholmers have the antibodies. According to Karin Tegmark Wisell, Head of the Department of Microbiology at the Public Health Authority, the big difference can be explained by the fact that the groups are very different.

The Public Health Authority's report applies to persons who have visited the outpatient clinic for sampling. A group that is normally representative of the population, but probably not this spring, as many people are sick and stay away from society. The Karolinska University Laboratory group consists of the public, who have voluntarily chosen to test themselves.

- It is a large and topical selection, but probably not entirely representative of the population. I think it is primarily about people who are mobile in society and professionals. A group where many people think they have had the disease, says Karin Tegmark Wisell.

- Nor do we know what the age distribution looks like in the group.

The Public Health Authority has previously said that it was hoped that the level would be 20 percent as early as May, given the spread of the virus.

Is it any surprise that none of the antibody studies done so far have reached that level?

- Both. It is difficult to say that things are going too slowly, the important thing is that those who are vulnerable are protected particularly carefully. We also learned more about the virus. Everyone who is infected does not develop antibodies and you also need to look at other factors, says Karin Tegmark Wisell.

Last week, the private company presented Werlab's results from 50,000 tests between weeks 18 and 24.

The analyzes show that 14 percent, or one in seven people, of those sampled in Stockholm have developed antibodies. In Gothenburg, the figure was 11.5 percent and in Malmö five percent.

Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - June 2020

Posted: Thu Jun 25, 2020 2:05 pm
by melpax
Back to Melbourne....

Saw this on the News tonight, Arrogance. People like him are why restrictions on gatherings have been tightened, and there is the possibility of localised lockdowns.......

https://twitter.com/7NewsMelbourne/stat ... 9644200961

Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - June 2020

Posted: Thu Jun 25, 2020 2:14 pm
by casinterest
Here in the US, cases are spiking badly, and we now have more new cases than ever before across the US, some may be due to more testing, however the states of
Arizona, Arkansas, California, North Carolina, South Carolina, Tennessee and Texas
—are all setting daily hospitalization records as well.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/nation/2 ... pdates-us/


The reopening plans seem to come with a resurgence of sickness, and it proves out that social distancing matters.

Right now the cases are highest among the less susceptible 20-49 populations, however, as the virus spreads, the more at risk will be put in harms way as well.

While NY, Conn, and NJ are putting out quarantines on the above states, the real issue that faces all states is that the economy will suffer by keeping businesses closed and social distancing intact , or people will die.

Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - June 2020

Posted: Thu Jun 25, 2020 8:37 pm
by mfranjic

...A report from a Brazilian hospital that claimed to have 5.000 infected and 200 dead from Covid-19 …

https://worldtruth.tv/members-of-brazil ... was-empty/

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cGdq3Dp ... e=emb_logo

https://brazilian.report/power/2020/06/ ... hospitals/

...The Department of Health and Social Care and Public Health England each confirmed the double-counting of Covid-19 tests.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/global-heal ... qcEuIKLrGk

...If someone is willing to try …

Type in Google any three-digit number (I think it also works with those four-digit) and then type "new cases". You can also add "covid" at the end ...
For each number entered, a plenty of sources and results …

One of those nicer events for me during the Covid-19 pandemic was definitely my 222nd voluntary blood donation. It was an unusual April morning at the Transfusion Institute. Two doctors, three medical technicians and me. The blood supplies of all blood groups were below the minimum at the time. I felt really good leaving the Institute because I’ve done what I’ve been doing for 33 years, and yet ... somehow different. I missed the people …

Mario

Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - June 2020

Posted: Fri Jun 26, 2020 7:45 am
by marcelh
PPVRA wrote:
Not all cases need hospitalization, indeed only a minority of cases are hospitalized, thus total cases are not relevant to the discussion of hospital capacity.

A lot of Covid-19 patients who weren’t ill enough to be hospitalized are having long term health issues. So “not relevant to the discussion” is a bit narrow minded.

Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - June 2020

Posted: Fri Jun 26, 2020 10:44 am
by cpd
melpax wrote:
Panic buying starting again in Melbourne, with the increase in community transmitted cases here, talk of the hardest-hit suburbs being put back into lockdown hasn't helped.

The 2 big Supermarket chains have re-imposed purchase limits as a result.....

https://www.theage.com.au/national/coro ... 555j0.html


Also here in Sydney too, panic buying of toilet paper. :bomb:

I’m now working from home as much as possible, I’m not really leaving the house at all. It’s cold outside now so I’m not fussed about that.

Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - June 2020

Posted: Fri Jun 26, 2020 12:47 pm
by casinterest
Houston Hospitals are starting to fill up.

https://www.khou.com/article/news/healt ... d36cdf4cf3

All regular ICU beds in the Texas Medical Center are now being used, according to numbers just released on the TMC website, but officials say they can add more.

Hospitals in Houston's Medical Center will now move some ICU patients to beds not normally used for critical care.

Twenty-eight percent of the ICU patients are being treated for COVID-19.

Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - June 2020

Posted: Fri Jun 26, 2020 7:27 pm
by mfranjic

Non-attached member of the EU Parliament Mislav Kolakusic yesterday prepared a several key questions for the first man of the World Health Organization (WHO) Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus at a debate in the EU Parliament, and whose answers could have helped citizens of the European Union and around the world to understand the scale of the dangers of COVID-19 disease. But the citizens did not get the answers because the WHO's director ran away from the on-line inclusion in the session, choosing not to answer the questions.

Mislav Kolakusic's questions referred to a numerous ambiguities and illogicalities related to the procedures of diagnosing the disease itself caused by the coronavirus. The fact is that in the Member States of the European Union there are drastically different approaches to the classification of the persons suffering or dying from coronavirus (COVID-19). In some Member States all persons positive for the virus that causes COVID-19 are declared ill, regardless of the symptoms of the disease. The death of the people who were positive on COVID-19 is attributed to the disease even when it is not proven by the clinical picture of the patient, and it is currently unclear whether there is a unique and specifically established medical procedure for the registration and the classification of the victims determined with certainty whether COVID-19 was the cause of the death. Tedros did not answer these few key questions as he abruptly left the on-line inclusion in the Committee session and thus ran away from the answering the questions of independent MP Kolakusic.

This is not the first time that international institutions in charge of crisis management have turned a deaf ear to answers to questions. Mislav Kolakusic asked similar questions back in March to the European Commission, asking what the competent bodies of the European Commission are doing to introduce a single classification of the people suffering from or dying from COVID-19 in the EU member states. Such issues, which clearly address the key problems in the fight against COVID-19 and which can very accurately show the level of risk of coronavirus, and then the most optimal methods of control, unfortunately, are not in the focus of the institutions.

Mario

Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - June 2020

Posted: Fri Jun 26, 2020 10:42 pm
by scbriml
Meanwhile, in the UK (or to be more precise, England)...

Government:
Image
(c)BBC.co.uk & https://imgur.com/bGXcHFB

English public two days later:
Image
(c)Huw Evan Agency

Also English public:
Image
(c)theguardian.com

I'm ashamed. :banghead:

I see America has now had it's highest daily total of new cases. Expect a significant uptick in deaths in a few days. UK will follow based on above images.
Image
Image from https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - June 2020

Posted: Fri Jun 26, 2020 10:47 pm
by Dieuwer
UK cases are still dropping (7-day moving average). I guess we will see late next week what happens to the deaths.
I wonder which state will "win the prize" of blasting through 10,000 cases in one day first: CA, FL, or TX?

Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - June 2020

Posted: Sat Jun 27, 2020 1:03 am
by 727LOVER

Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - June 2020

Posted: Sat Jun 27, 2020 3:57 am
by N649DL
Well, here in AUS they just shut down all the bars again until 7/10 as of today. And with the Saharan Wind Outbreak blowing through, this is going to be boring and dirty as hell on the July 4th around here.