Moderators: richierich, ua900, PanAm_DC10, hOMSaR

 
M564038
Topic Author
Posts: 654
Joined: Sun Jan 03, 2016 11:16 am

Norway defies forecasted Cov-19 collapse and sees highest real estate prices ever in May.

Thu Jun 04, 2020 9:21 am

Wether this is premature hubris on the basis of thinking Sars Cov-19 is beaten or intoxication over the economy coping better than everyone thought in march and
better than most of the world is one for the historians.

Before the Pandemic, real estate prices was forecasted to stay flat.

As late as one month ago forecasts varied from a few percents dip to total collapse in the whole real-estate market.

Now, the results from May are in.
Prices have gone up 1,9 percent. A historical record for the month of may.

That means more people than ever before has bought real-estate above asking price. In the middle of the biggest crisis since WWII.
Who are these people? Why? And where does the money come from?
This goes for all types of homes. How can the prices of working class homes get pressured when so many are suddenly unemployed?

Hubris or Re-bound?

https://www.aftenposten.no/bolig/i/LAw8 ... ligprisene
 
VSMUT
Posts: 5497
Joined: Mon Aug 08, 2016 11:40 am

Re: Norway defies forecasted Cov-19 collapse and sees highest real estate prices ever in May.

Thu Jun 04, 2020 10:03 am

M564038 wrote:
Who are these people? Why? And where does the money come from?
This goes for all types of homes. How can the prices of working class homes get pressured when so many are suddenly unemployed?

Hubris or Re-bound?


It says so right in the article. Low interest means access to easy and cheap loans. At the same time, less houses are put up for sale. Market and demand dictates that prices will rise. Sounds like a bubble to me, could turn into a real problem if the regulators don't reel it in.

Maybe the fact that people won't be going on holidays this year means they put the money towards a new home. Last year the average Norwegian spent around €5300 on vacations. For a family of 4, that quickly amounts to quite a bit.
 
PlymSpotter
Posts: 10840
Joined: Thu Jun 17, 2004 7:32 am

Re: Norway defies forecasted Cov-19 collapse and sees highest real estate prices ever in May.

Fri Jun 05, 2020 9:29 am

Covid-19 could well distort the market from what we saw before, especially between urban and rrural areas.

A few of our friends here South of London are estate agents. They expected to furlough or close, but have instead seen their busiest ever period for new, genuine enquiries. Most of this came from inner city (London) residents looking for a property with a garden, often big enough to fit a home office building.

This reflects the likely permanent move towards more home working and less expensive office space. And they will get a lot more for their money - just 25 miles South of Canary Wharf, property is currently a fraction of the cost. Over the next few years it is expected that urban house prices will deflate slightly whilst rural prices climb.
 
94717
Posts: 2789
Joined: Tue Feb 06, 2007 3:38 am

Re: Norway defies forecasted Cov-19 collapse and sees highest real estate prices ever in May.

Fri Jun 05, 2020 5:18 pm

Norway facing a major downturn because of Covid 19 and oil prices has put a major amount of cash from its "oil fund" into the economy this year.
 
LJ
Posts: 5468
Joined: Wed Nov 17, 1999 8:28 pm

Re: Norway defies forecasted Cov-19 collapse and sees highest real estate prices ever in May.

Fri Jun 05, 2020 5:31 pm

M564038 wrote:
Now, the results from May are in.
Prices have gone up 1,9 percent. A historical record for the month of may.


It depends also on how the index is calculated. We see the same in The Netherlands, but the index contains houses which have been sold pre-COVID-19, but where the transaction is officially concluded in May.

However, low inventory, low interest rates and people who haven't lost their income as companies delay lay offs due to government interference ensures that house prices do not plummet. However, it will be inetresting what will happen when the governments stop helping companies and lay offs start getting in.
 
zakuivcustom
Posts: 3610
Joined: Sat Jun 10, 2017 3:32 am

Re: Norway defies forecasted Cov-19 collapse and sees highest real estate prices ever in May.

Fri Jun 05, 2020 6:09 pm

Low inventory perhaps?

Real estate price did not drop one bit here in the States, either. Of course, some of the foreclosure may simply be pushed back due to the moratorium right now.
 
prebennorholm
Posts: 7159
Joined: Tue Mar 21, 2000 6:25 am

Re: Norway defies forecasted Cov-19 collapse and sees highest real estate prices ever in May.

Sat Jun 06, 2020 1:21 am

The whole picture changes when taking into account the decline of the value of the Norwegian Krone related to major currencies such as Euro and US dollars. During the last year. During the last seven years in fact.
 
94717
Posts: 2789
Joined: Tue Feb 06, 2007 3:38 am

Re: Norway defies forecasted Cov-19 collapse and sees highest real estate prices ever in May.

Sat Jun 06, 2020 6:25 am

The norwegian krona falls with the price of oil. Norway need levels at minimum usd 60 to make profit usd 100 to make new oilfields.

With corona and the following electrification of european transport sector end of oil in norway might be around 2030.
 
Sokes
Posts: 2773
Joined: Sat Mar 09, 2019 4:48 pm

Re: Norway defies forecasted Cov-19 collapse and sees highest real estate prices ever in May.

Tue Nov 10, 2020 8:09 am

Any news?

I expected rents and even property prices to fall in India, after all India is in an upward movement since 1991 or so. That's too long a boom. Reminds me of Gruenderzeit 1848-1873.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gr%C3%BCnderzeit

We looked for a new flat to rent. As all four flats in the building were empty the owner must have said to himself that if a tenant can be found, this tenant at least should pay little extra.
I really struggle to understand how rents can remain same when many businesses are down 70% or so.

Somebody from Bombay mentioned that rents remained same while property prizes may have reduced by 5% or so.

What about other countries?
 
94717
Posts: 2789
Joined: Tue Feb 06, 2007 3:38 am

Re: Norway defies forecasted Cov-19 collapse and sees highest real estate prices ever in May.

Tue Nov 10, 2020 9:45 am

Sokes wrote:
Any news?

I expected rents and even property prices to fall in India, after all India is in an upward movement since 1991 or so. That's too long a boom. Reminds me of Gruenderzeit 1848-1873.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gr%C3%BCnderzeit

We looked for a new flat to rent. As all four flats in the building were empty the owner must have said to himself that if a tenant can be found, this tenant at least should pay little extra.
I really struggle to understand how rents can remain same when many businesses are down 70% or so.

Somebody from Bombay mentioned that rents remained same while property prizes may have reduced by 5% or so.

What about other countries?


I think Scandinavia is a bad example compared to the rest of the world.

Norway is the extreme example with much lower NOK (Krona), input of oil money from the fund into the real economy in combination that Scandinavian people are much more protected against the economical consequences of loosing jobs etc.

In Sweden prices of housing going up and in my case that has been living 30 minutes south of Stockholm 15 years on the country side see many summer holiday houses become permanent living and other people that before did not want to move away from the center now with more home office takes the step. So prices of houses has been going up.
 
User avatar
Kiwirob
Posts: 13571
Joined: Mon Jun 13, 2005 2:16 pm

Re: Norway defies forecasted Cov-19 collapse and sees highest real estate prices ever in May.

Tue Nov 10, 2020 9:02 pm

A house just down the road from ours sold for 5.6m NOK a few months back. It was listed at 3.6m, it sold after the first viewing. Apartments sit but free standing homes are in limited supply and sell fast.
 
frmrCapCadet
Posts: 4974
Joined: Thu May 29, 2008 8:24 pm

Re: Norway defies forecasted Cov-19 collapse and sees highest real estate prices ever in May.

Tue Nov 10, 2020 9:40 pm

Also city people with kids living in apartments or condos are needing a lot more room without parks, schools, playgrounds et al.
 
M564038
Topic Author
Posts: 654
Joined: Sun Jan 03, 2016 11:16 am

Re: Norway defies forecasted Cov-19 collapse and sees highest real estate prices ever in May.

Tue Nov 10, 2020 10:45 pm

Prices central in the cities are still the ones rising the most.

Kiwirob wrote:
A house just down the road from ours sold for 5.6m NOK a few months back. It was listed at 3.6m, it sold after the first viewing. Apartments sit but free standing homes are in limited supply and sell fast.
 
luckyone
Posts: 4014
Joined: Thu Aug 21, 2008 1:50 pm

Re: Norway defies forecasted Cov-19 collapse and sees highest real estate prices ever in May.

Wed Nov 11, 2020 1:00 am

With the glaring exception of the 2007 subprime collapse and the GFC that followed, housing markets tend to go up a bit during recessions as real estate is a tangible asset.
 
User avatar
Aesma
Posts: 14637
Joined: Sat Nov 14, 2009 6:14 am

Re: Norway defies forecasted Cov-19 collapse and sees highest real estate prices ever in May.

Wed Nov 11, 2020 1:38 am

Here in France there is definitely a move towards the suburbs, so since I was already looking there, more competition for me. 2 days of telework a week will become a new minimum, so my plan to suffer a longer commute but enjoy a bigger home, with land around, is vindicated. Unfortunately the 2 houses I had found (one with a tennis field !) have been sold before I could visit.

On the other hand my brother and sister like to live in large city centers and don't plan to change if they can afford it. In the case of my brother that has meant moving from Paris to Nantes, he got a big flat (two flats made into one, in fact) for a bit more money than the small flat he had before... At least the kids have enough space to run !
 
User avatar
Kiwirob
Posts: 13571
Joined: Mon Jun 13, 2005 2:16 pm

Re: Norway defies forecasted Cov-19 collapse and sees highest real estate prices ever in May.

Wed Nov 11, 2020 5:54 am

M564038 wrote:
Prices central in the cities are still the ones rising the most.

Kiwirob wrote:
A house just down the road from ours sold for 5.6m NOK a few months back. It was listed at 3.6m, it sold after the first viewing. Apartments sit but free standing homes are in limited supply and sell fast.


I don't live in a city, I live rural.
 
Sokes
Posts: 2773
Joined: Sat Mar 09, 2019 4:48 pm

Re: Norway defies forecasted Cov-19 collapse and sees highest real estate prices ever in May.

Wed Nov 11, 2020 1:47 pm

luckyone wrote:
With the glaring exception of the 2007 subprime collapse and the GFC that followed, housing markets tend to go up a bit during recessions as real estate is a tangible asset.

That makes sense, specially if we add money supply.
 
94717
Posts: 2789
Joined: Tue Feb 06, 2007 3:38 am

Re: Norway defies forecasted Cov-19 collapse and sees highest real estate prices ever in May.

Wed Nov 18, 2020 3:15 pm

I consider that the worse impact will be the decline of oil industry.

Cities like stavanger has seen a big decrease in prices and people seems to be moving from the regions.

The decrease of oil industry will have big impact of the Norwegian economy and the question is how fast it will use the "oil fund" on yearly basis to keep the economy up and going.

As example the trade balance of Norway is today depending on oil export. Norway without oil has today a trade deficit.

And the problem will in short term be how big effect Covid has got on oil consumption and around 2030 electrification of transports.
 
M564038
Topic Author
Posts: 654
Joined: Sun Jan 03, 2016 11:16 am

Re: Norway defies forecasted Cov-19 collapse and sees highest real estate prices ever in May.

Wed Nov 18, 2020 5:16 pm

As the economists say, Norway - Oil = Sweden.
So not too bad, just hope it doesn’t include the number of Covid deaths!


olle wrote:
I consider that the worse impact will be the decline of oil industry.

Cities like stavanger has seen a big decrease in prices and people seems to be moving from the regions.

The decrease of oil industry will have big impact of the Norwegian economy and the question is how fast it will use the "oil fund" on yearly basis to keep the economy up and going.

As example the trade balance of Norway is today depending on oil export. Norway without oil has today a trade deficit.

And the problem will in short term be how big effect Covid has got on oil consumption and around 2030 electrification of transports.
 
User avatar
Aeroflot777
Posts: 3214
Joined: Mon Mar 22, 2004 2:19 pm

Re: Norway defies forecasted Cov-19 collapse and sees highest real estate prices ever in May.

Wed Nov 18, 2020 5:58 pm

Kiwirob wrote:
A house just down the road from ours sold for 5.6m NOK a few months back. It was listed at 3.6m, it sold after the first viewing. Apartments sit but free standing homes are in limited supply and sell fast.


Arggg, amazing prices for a standalone house. I was looking into apartments in Bergen, and now with the move to Oslo, looking here in the capital. Insane what your money can get you (or in this case, NOT get you) in larger Norwegian cities.

Rural is the way to go, especially these days with work from home, if it remains so.
 
94717
Posts: 2789
Joined: Tue Feb 06, 2007 3:38 am

Re: Norway defies forecasted Cov-19 collapse and sees highest real estate prices ever in May.

Wed Nov 18, 2020 6:12 pm

M564038 wrote:
As the economists say, Norway - Oil = Sweden.
So not too bad, just hope it doesn’t include the number of Covid deaths!


olle wrote:
I consider that the worse impact will be the decline of oil industry.

Cities like stavanger has seen a big decrease in prices and people seems to be moving from the regions.

The decrease of oil industry will have big impact of the Norwegian economy and the question is how fast it will use the "oil fund" on yearly basis to keep the economy up and going.

As example the trade balance of Norway is today depending on oil export. Norway without oil has today a trade deficit.

And the problem will in short term be how big effect Covid has got on oil consumption and around 2030 electrification of transports.


That is probably very true.. Sometimes i feel that Norway and Denmark both with hostory and culture is closer to each other.

Sweden in my view is a mix between Scandinavian thinking and a german kind of business..

I grew up close to the Norwegian border in Sweden and one positiv aspect would actually be that those notder areas not only have the "harry" trade but also infrastructute connection could improve like rail and roads.

Right now it is so much easier for a Swedish company to do trade with a EU country then Norway because admin reasons.
 
94717
Posts: 2789
Joined: Tue Feb 06, 2007 3:38 am

Re: Norway defies forecasted Cov-19 collapse and sees highest real estate prices ever in May.

Thu Nov 19, 2020 6:44 am

I honestly think that in Norway not many people understand what a economical bloodbath Sweden went thru in the 1990s.

As I mentioned I grew up close to the Norwegian border as a teenage went partying in Fredrikstad with frequency, and suddenly in 1992-1995 it became impossible. The price level in Sweden and Norway was very similar until early 1990s. Then the Social democtratic model where the government took responsibility for the citizen, failing industries for keeping jobs etc failed.

In 2000 this was gone and we tried to run the public sector with much less resources and replaced by a much more competitive economy engineering and IT driven.

I consider that partly the failure with older people and covid is a payment for this. Special immigrants doing the hard labor for less money then Scandinavians would accept ran between the nurseries for older people spreading the Covid. This is a tragedy because with the growth in the economy we would probably afford paying them well giving them full time employments etc.

But my pint is that Norway still have to adjust this. Norway - oil = sweden forgets that the steelbath in the 1990s and the very much forcing the economy to become super efficient and export oriented in a way it was not in 1980s you have not seen yet.
 
User avatar
Kiwirob
Posts: 13571
Joined: Mon Jun 13, 2005 2:16 pm

Re: Norway defies forecasted Cov-19 collapse and sees highest real estate prices ever in May.

Thu Nov 19, 2020 8:35 am

Aeroflot777 wrote:
Kiwirob wrote:
A house just down the road from ours sold for 5.6m NOK a few months back. It was listed at 3.6m, it sold after the first viewing. Apartments sit but free standing homes are in limited supply and sell fast.


Arggg, amazing prices for a standalone house. I was looking into apartments in Bergen, and now with the move to Oslo, looking here in the capital. Insane what your money can get you (or in this case, NOT get you) in larger Norwegian cities.

Rural is the way to go, especially these days with work from home, if it remains so.


We live semi rural, I wouldn't want to go back to living in a large city again. I also hope I never have to work in an office again. I've been working from home after I changed jobs in January, it gives you a lot more freedom and I find I'm a lot more productive. I do have an office but that's 800km away in Stavanger, I'm there 1 week every 6-8 weeks.
 
User avatar
Kiwirob
Posts: 13571
Joined: Mon Jun 13, 2005 2:16 pm

Re: Norway defies forecasted Cov-19 collapse and sees highest real estate prices ever in May.

Thu Nov 19, 2020 8:38 am

olle wrote:
Right now it is so much easier for a Swedish company to do trade with a EU country then Norway because admin reasons.


I believe Norway has to join the EU, there is no option to go it alone in the future.

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: Aesma, blrBird, LCDFlight, qf789, VX321 and 35 guests

Popular Searches On Airliners.net

Top Photos of Last:   24 Hours  •  48 Hours  •  7 Days  •  30 Days  •  180 Days  •  365 Days  •  All Time

Military Aircraft Every type from fighters to helicopters from air forces around the globe

Classic Airliners Props and jets from the good old days

Flight Decks Views from inside the cockpit

Aircraft Cabins Passenger cabin shots showing seat arrangements as well as cargo aircraft interior

Cargo Aircraft Pictures of great freighter aircraft

Government Aircraft Aircraft flying government officials

Helicopters Our large helicopter section. Both military and civil versions

Blimps / Airships Everything from the Goodyear blimp to the Zeppelin

Night Photos Beautiful shots taken while the sun is below the horizon

Accidents Accident, incident and crash related photos

Air to Air Photos taken by airborne photographers of airborne aircraft

Special Paint Schemes Aircraft painted in beautiful and original liveries

Airport Overviews Airport overviews from the air or ground

Tails and Winglets Tail and Winglet closeups with beautiful airline logos