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UAUA
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Will Donald Trump get a second term?

Mon Jun 08, 2020 10:36 am

At first it looks likely. Now not sure

What are your views?
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Aaron747
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Re: Will Donald Trump get a second term?

Mon Jun 08, 2020 10:42 am

It basically comes down to how he does in 6-7 states. Right now some of them are jot looking good for him, others are too close to call. Independents and suburban women have clearly soured on him, seniors have in FL and NC as well. He needs to seriously turn things around with those constituencies to be a lock for reelection.
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Pi7472000
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Re: Will Donald Trump get a second term?

Mon Jun 08, 2020 12:18 pm

No, not at all. Now is the time for Democrats to choose a smart progressive who represents true change as Trump has no chance of winning anymore. We will see the largest blue map in years. We have so many amazing people on the left like Warren or Stacey Abrams who would be so much better than Biden. Biden should hand over the nomination to a new generation of Progressives!! Would be great to see a Abrams/Warren ticket.
 
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mbmbos
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Re: Will Donald Trump get a second term?

Mon Jun 08, 2020 12:43 pm

If the current trend carries on, he hasn't a chance. Although if the Russians continue to infiltrate social media and the polling places as well, if Trump finds some way to shut down the USPS, thus stranding tens of thousands of mail-in votes, or if he manages to start some sort of October surprise (terrorist attack, declare war on Iran, get the FBI to falsely state they are investigating his opponent), then it could get dicey again.
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afcjets
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Re: Will Donald Trump get a second term?

Mon Jun 08, 2020 12:50 pm

The biggest fight is going to be over nationwide or widespread mail in ballots. If that somehow gets pushed through, he will lose.
 
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lugie
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Re: Will Donald Trump get a second term?

Mon Jun 08, 2020 1:15 pm

If the election were held right now, or in a few weeks, I think he would lose. And probably lose big.

His handling of this crisis and especially his wannabe authoritarian calls for military intervention and the attack on peaceful protestors for the photo-op last Monday have drawn stronger than ever outrage in his own party, even among current and former cabinet members.
Even the military seems to be very unhappy with him at the moment, a sentiment that was not quite appeased -mildly put- by his calls this weekend to draw down the U.S. Army presence in Germany by over one quarter.

Moreover, a clear majority of Americans stands with the cause of the current protest movement despite what right-wing media claims:
In one poll, 78% said they found the protests partially or fully justified with only 18% considering them not at all justified (Source).
Likewise, a Reuters poll found 65% of Americans sympathetic to the cause, including a slight majority (!) of rural respondents and 70% of suburban respondents (Source).

That said, nobody knows yet what the situation will look like come October and November.
A lot of factors are still entirely up in the air, such as the further human and economic toll of the coronavirus crisis, the rollout (or lack) of widespread vote-by-mail, Biden's VP (or rather the entire Dem Ticket depending on Biden's health and past scandals), further blatant undemocratic transgressions by the Trump administration, further crumbling support in the GOP, a potential 3rd challenger (likely from the conservative camp but possibly also on the left), ...
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casinterest
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Re: Will Donald Trump get a second term?

Mon Jun 08, 2020 1:19 pm

Donald Trump is currently Trailing in NC, Florida, Michigan, and Arizona. With his notions towards fascism and attacking US citizens, his strength with the fascism and authoritarianism base will be strengthened, but he has destroyed his standing with independents , Democrats, and within all groups:Women

https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4 ... first-time
According to data from Ballot Access News, independents make up 29.09 percent of registered voters, while Republicans make up 28.87 percent and Democrats make up 39.66 percent. The data comes from the 31 states that require registration by party.

An analysis by The Washington Post, which first reported the data, notes that there hasn't been a large drop in GOP registration since President Trump was elected, meaning he's likely not linked to the change. The growth of independents is more likely part of a broader trend since voter registration began in the 1900s.


https://www.politico.com/news/2020/06/0 ... est-307027

https://thehill.com/hilltv/rising/46992 ... -year-poll

Right now Trump is in deep danger, and the Republican party is in a make or break decision. Stick with Facism, racism,misogyny and lies, or try to move back towards family values. Family values is losing under the Trumplicans.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/tr ... l-ratings/
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einsteinboricua
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Re: Will Donald Trump get a second term?

Mon Jun 08, 2020 1:28 pm

Pi7472000 wrote:
Biden should hand over the nomination to a new generation of Progressives!! Would be great to see a Abrams/Warren ticket.
The irony of it all...hand over the nomination to a group of people who feel entitled to it even after criticizing the 2016 nominee for HER sense of entitlement for the nomination...

afcjets wrote:
The biggest fight is going to be over nationwide or widespread mail in ballots. If that somehow gets pushed through, he will lose.

I'm still waiting for this mountain of evidence that suggests that mail ballots will benefit Democrats or are prone to fraud. In the last 3 elections I've participated in, all have been mail ballots (WA).

The only incident I could think of was my ballot being lost on the way to me. I called the election authorities and they sent me a new ballot. If someone else received my original ballot, it will have been discarded because:
1. The signature would not match
2. Once I requested a replacement ballot, that immediately voided the first one, so whoever sent it wasted their time.

After that, I decided to drop off the ballot at the drop box instead of letting USPS handle it (and even then, there's a tracking number for it letting you know if the ballot has been received and counted).

What I find ironic is that Obama somehow always found the time to go to IL and cast his ballots, but Trump can't go to FL (yet is able to go golfing on weekends) and must be allowed to send absentee ballots through mail. If mail ballots are supposed to benefit Democrats over Republicans, someone needs to let Utahans know...and WA voters need to wake up because it should mean a more lopsided advantage in the legislature as well.
"You haven't seen a tree until you've seen its shadow from the sky."
 
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Dahlgardo
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Re: Will Donald Trump get a second term?

Mon Jun 08, 2020 1:39 pm

casinterest wrote:
Stick with Facism, racism,misogyny and lies, or try to move back towards family values.

Nothing wrong with moving back to family values.

But case In Point as to how polarized, extreme and poisonous the political discourse has become in the US (happily fueled by an equally polarized media).

One can argue that tone in the debate is Trumps fault, but it started long before he took office.

Something must be broken in the US political system if Biden and Trump are the best candidates for the job.
The choice between Hillary and Trump wasn't much better.

A lot of things can happen between now and november so it's too early to tell.

Trump appears to be his own worst enemy, but he is also up against an opportunistic polictical left that is not affraid to destroy the country in order to rid Trump.
leave your nines at home and bring your skills to the battle
 
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casinterest
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Re: Will Donald Trump get a second term?

Mon Jun 08, 2020 2:00 pm

Dahlgardo wrote:
casinterest wrote:
Stick with Facism, racism,misogyny and lies, or try to move back towards family values.

Nothing wrong with moving back to family values.

But case In Point as to how polarized, extreme and poisonous the political discourse has become in the US (happily fueled by an equally polarized media).

One can argue that tone in the debate is Trumps fault, but it started long before he took office.

Something must be broken in the US political system if Biden and Trump are the best candidates for the job.
The choice between Hillary and Trump wasn't much better.

A lot of things can happen between now and november so it's too early to tell.

Trump appears to be his own worst enemy, but he is also up against an opportunistic polictical left that is not affraid to destroy the country in order to rid Trump.


Trump and the GOP have been going towards fascism ever since they got in bed with right wing news, where they work to lie every day.

There is no dissenting opinion allowed because they control the content, and lable everything else as "fake". The issue most affecting the GOP is that they do lack family values. Their political discourse proves it. Remember in 2008 long before hillary, they were already pushing the Anti marriage laws, the birther issues, and they were pushing for privatization/segregation of schools.
The fallout has been going since 2000.
Where ever you go, there you are.
 
GalaxyFlyer
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Re: Will Donald Trump get a second term?

Mon Jun 08, 2020 2:19 pm

casinterest wrote:
Dahlgardo wrote:
casinterest wrote:
Stick with Facism, racism,misogyny and lies, or try to move back towards family values.

Nothing wrong with moving back to family values.

But case In Point as to how polarized, extreme and poisonous the political discourse has become in the US (happily fueled by an equally polarized media).

One can argue that tone in the debate is Trumps fault, but it started long before he took office.

Something must be broken in the US political system if Biden and Trump are the best candidates for the job.
The choice between Hillary and Trump wasn't much better.

A lot of things can happen between now and november so it's too early to tell.

Trump appears to be his own worst enemy, but he is also up against an opportunistic polictical left that is not affraid to destroy the country in order to rid Trump.


Trump and the GOP have been going towards fascism ever since they got in bed with right wing news, where they work to lie every day.

There is no dissenting opinion allowed because they control the content, and lable everything else as "fake". The issue most affecting the GOP is that they do lack family values. Their political discourse proves it. Remember in 2008 long before hillary, they were already pushing the Anti marriage laws, the birther issues, and they were pushing for privatization/segregation of schools.
The fallout has been going since 2000.


Really? Have you read about Mr. Bennett the NYT editor thrown to the wolves you the internal mob. Or the MSP mayor thrown o tut by the woke crowd. Ideological fanatics breach no dissenters.
 
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casinterest
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Re: Will Donald Trump get a second term?

Mon Jun 08, 2020 2:29 pm

GalaxyFlyer wrote:
casinterest wrote:
Dahlgardo wrote:
Nothing wrong with moving back to family values.

But case In Point as to how polarized, extreme and poisonous the political discourse has become in the US (happily fueled by an equally polarized media).

One can argue that tone in the debate is Trumps fault, but it started long before he took office.

Something must be broken in the US political system if Biden and Trump are the best candidates for the job.
The choice between Hillary and Trump wasn't much better.

A lot of things can happen between now and november so it's too early to tell.

Trump appears to be his own worst enemy, but he is also up against an opportunistic polictical left that is not affraid to destroy the country in order to rid Trump.


Trump and the GOP have been going towards fascism ever since they got in bed with right wing news, where they work to lie every day.

There is no dissenting opinion allowed because they control the content, and lable everything else as "fake". The issue most affecting the GOP is that they do lack family values. Their political discourse proves it. Remember in 2008 long before hillary, they were already pushing the Anti marriage laws, the birther issues, and they were pushing for privatization/segregation of schools.
The fallout has been going since 2000.


Really? Have you read about Mr. Bennett the NYT editor thrown to the wolves you the internal mob. Or the MSP mayor thrown o tut by the woke crowd. Ideological fanatics breach no dissenters.



Bennet? Thrown to the wolves? he quit.

MSP mayor was not thrown out.

Your post is why people need to stop watching right wing propaganda. They are filled with nothing but lies and political motivation..
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readytotaxi
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Re: Will Donald Trump get a second term?

Mon Jun 08, 2020 4:51 pm

The office of the President needs to served far better than it has in the last four years, a return to diplomacy would be a good start.
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Dahlgardo
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Re: Will Donald Trump get a second term?

Mon Jun 08, 2020 5:14 pm

casinterest wrote:
Trump and the GOP have been going towards fascism ever since they got in bed with right wing news, where they work to lie every day.

There is no dissenting opinion allowed because they control the content, and lable everything else as "fake". The issue most affecting the GOP is that they do lack family values. Their political discourse proves it. Remember in 2008 long before hillary, they were already pushing the Anti marriage laws, the birther issues, and they were pushing for privatization/segregation of schools.
The fallout has been going since 2000.


Both parties have to cater to the views of their more extreme voter bases.
I think it's one of the weaknesses of the duopolistic US system.
R needs to have room for the "Tea Party" segment, and D for the identity politics/equality of outcome-activist types.
The views of those extremes should be represented by small niche parties.

In my home country there are 8 parties in the parliament spanning from ultra liberals to semi communists.
Usually the most extreme will be the loudest, but have the less influence.

That's a better solution.
leave your nines at home and bring your skills to the battle
 
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seb146
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Re: Will Donald Trump get a second term?

Mon Jun 08, 2020 5:26 pm

I think it is interesting that more and more Republicans are backing Biden. Even for his alleged memory problems or whatever they say he has, Republican leaders think he is better suited than their own leader.
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bgm
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Re: Will Donald Trump get a second term?

Mon Jun 08, 2020 5:40 pm

readytotaxi wrote:
The office of the President needs to served far better than it has in the last four years, a return to diplomacy would be a good start.


Having someone who’s able to speak in complete and coherent sentences would be a start. How low have our standards sunk, ugh.
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EasternSon
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Re: Will Donald Trump get a second term?

Mon Jun 08, 2020 5:44 pm

Well, the way 2020 is going, he'll either win in a landslide - or lose and refuse to vacate the Oval Office. It's been that kind of year.
"The only people for me are the mad ones...." Jack Kerouac
 
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casinterest
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Re: Will Donald Trump get a second term?

Mon Jun 08, 2020 5:51 pm

Dahlgardo wrote:
casinterest wrote:
Trump and the GOP have been going towards fascism ever since they got in bed with right wing news, where they work to lie every day.

There is no dissenting opinion allowed because they control the content, and lable everything else as "fake". The issue most affecting the GOP is that they do lack family values. Their political discourse proves it. Remember in 2008 long before hillary, they were already pushing the Anti marriage laws, the birther issues, and they were pushing for privatization/segregation of schools.
The fallout has been going since 2000.


Both parties have to cater to the views of their more extreme voter bases.
I think it's one of the weaknesses of the duopolistic US system.
R needs to have room for the "Tea Party" segment, and D for the identity politics/equality of outcome-activist types.
The views of those extremes should be represented by small niche parties.

In my home country there are 8 parties in the parliament spanning from ultra liberals to semi communists.
Usually the most extreme will be the loudest, but have the less influence.

That's a better solution.



It would work better. However unfortunately here we have some dedicated right wing media propoganda that panders to a certain non-critical thinking set of folks that get whipped up into mindless frenzies over lies .

There are media that pander to the left winged radicals as well, but they are not quite the majority that has locked in on "fake news" as a mantra for anything that breaks with their fragile beliefs.
Where ever you go, there you are.
 
Bricktop
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Re: Will Donald Trump get a second term?

Mon Jun 08, 2020 5:56 pm

bgm wrote:
readytotaxi wrote:
The office of the President needs to served far better than it has in the last four years, a return to diplomacy would be a good start.


Having someone who’s able to speak in complete and coherent sentences would be a start. How low have our standards sunk, ugh.

In 2016 we had the worst 2 candidates ever to run for President. Now we have 2 old white men who make concussion victims look like Churchill. You know, the thing! :roll:
Maybe it's time to just go overseas and live off the land.
 
Bricktop
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Re: Will Donald Trump get a second term?

Mon Jun 08, 2020 6:27 pm

casinterest wrote:
It would work better. However unfortunately here we have some dedicated right wing media propoganda that panders to a certain non-critical thinking set of folks that get whipped up into mindless frenzies over lies .

There are media that pander to the left winged radicals as well, but they are not quite the majority that has locked in on "fake news" as a mantra for anything that breaks with their fragile beliefs.

Oh please. "Trump is a Russian Asset" was for three years the chant of virtually every "mainstream" media and many of my friends. Talk about fragile beliefs: That was a pure falsehood, and THEY KNEW IT WHILE THEY WERE PUSHING IT. Then move the goalposts and say Mueller was about Russian interference, because you know, they never interfered in an election anywhere ever before 2016, and neither did we.

But never mind, because it was against Trump, and there's 50% of the country to harvest for our ads by pushing their confirmation bias and they will not care. We need those eyeballs, or there's no summer rental in the Hamptons this year. So then hype up Ukraine and Impeachment. Then right into "Trump says CV is a hoax". Now the George Floyd tragedy. Every single one of them was 24/7 news, until they weren't and it was on to the next thing. It is like a lightswitch being flipped on one story and another being flipped on the next one. Very soon it will be George Who? like it was with Obama's son. How many can name his killer without Google? 1% max? Meanwhile, the market is back and elites keep right on. Every get the feeling we're being played by both "sides" to divide the public?
/rant

And to the original topic. No, Trump will not be re-elected. The zombie formerly known as Joe Biden will be #46, and his Veep will be #47 shortly after. We may actually see the 25th Amendment in action without an AAG wearing a wire. Man, I am getting cynical.
 
sabenapilot
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Re: Will Donald Trump get a second term?

Mon Jun 08, 2020 6:52 pm

It's a long way to go still till election day, much can change.

An interesting question would be how 45 will react to a possible election defeat?
will he come out and admit it on the evening itself? or in the days after?
will he vacate the office when his time's up?
what will he do in the mean time with it?

I could see some drama ahead in case one or two swingstates turn against him this time, something not impossible given they'll all be worse of than they were in 2016, regardless who's fault that is: his, China, corona, or whatever.
 
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atcsundevil
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Re: Will Donald Trump get a second term?

Mon Jun 08, 2020 7:45 pm

Please keep the thread on topic without personal attacks.

✈️ atcsundevil
 
ltbewr
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Re: Will Donald Trump get a second term?

Mon Jun 08, 2020 8:00 pm

With almost 5 months to the election, a lot can happen to favor either Trump or Biden to win. I suspect that the margin Biden has now will narrow to a few percentage points to within the margin of error in polls as independents make their decision for either or to vote at all. The Pandemic is the great unknown factor, likely very negative from our current view toward Trump. Traditional campaigning will be impossible including the conventions. Most of the campaigning will be very bad ads, in particular for Trump. Trump has the bully pulpit for free campaigning as the current President while Biden will get limited attention. Biden is very likely to get the states HRC won in the EC vote, but the 'purple' states could be more difficult. As I often say, if the EC vote comes doen to one state like in 2000 and Florida, then it will be political nuclear war and if that state is controlled as in 2000 with Florida with Republicans, likely it will be 'fixed' so Trump wins.
 
apodino
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Re: Will Donald Trump get a second term?

Mon Jun 08, 2020 9:12 pm

If the election were held today he would lose in a landslide. The COVID-19 response was horrible, and so was the response to the George Floyd protests. It was a time when our leader should have tried to unite the country and call for calm, and Trump instead poured more 93 octane onto the fire. Biden has basically adopted a strategy of staying out of sight and letting Trump beat himself. Which is working big time for him now. However a lot can happen between now and November as we well know. Here are a few things that could play out.

1. People go back to work, COVID reignites, and because the economic numbers on paper are good, no aid comes from Congress because Mitch McConnell wont take it up. This would be devastating to Trump, and will likely cost the GOP the Senate (Which I think is gone anyways), and may even cost McConnell his senate seat.

2. More evidence comes out corroborating Tara Reade's allegations after the convention. This would be a bad case for Democrats as it would put them in an uncomfortable position of defending Biden in the face of these allegations. (If such evidence comes out before the convention, Biden will get replaced at the Convention)

3. The Economy recovers and the Dow hits a record high before election day. Trump would run on this and it could help him long term.

4. Enough people hate both candidates that Jo Jorgensen draws tons of votes away from both candidates. (Or better yet, actually polls well enough to make a debate stage) I think this would help Biden more than Trump.

5. The Supreme Court rules against the States in the Faithless elector case. A ruling like this would free the electors in the Electoral College to vote for who they want without being tied to any candidate. If you get enough faithless electors in the Electoral College, all hell could break loose.

6. Jesse Ventura gets in the race on the Green Party candidate. Although this is a national election, he beat the odds and was elected Governor as an independent in the past.


Those are just a few things in play here. But if I had guess, I have Biden at 336 electoral votes, and Trump at 201, and you can flip 31 more of those if Georgia and North Carolina fall.
 
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casinterest
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Re: Will Donald Trump get a second term?

Tue Jun 09, 2020 1:05 am

apodino wrote:
If the election were held today he would lose in a landslide. The COVID-19 response was horrible, and so was the response to the George Floyd protests. It was a time when our leader should have tried to unite the country and call for calm, and Trump instead poured more 93 octane onto the fire. Biden has basically adopted a strategy of staying out of sight and letting Trump beat himself. Which is working big time for him now. However a lot can happen between now and November as we well know. Here are a few things that could play out.

1. People go back to work, COVID reignites, and because the economic numbers on paper are good, no aid comes from Congress because Mitch McConnell wont take it up. This would be devastating to Trump, and will likely cost the GOP the Senate (Which I think is gone anyways), and may even cost McConnell his senate seat.

2. More evidence comes out corroborating Tara Reade's allegations after the convention. This would be a bad case for Democrats as it would put them in an uncomfortable position of defending Biden in the face of these allegations. (If such evidence comes out before the convention, Biden will get replaced at the Convention)

3. The Economy recovers and the Dow hits a record high before election day. Trump would run on this and it could help him long term.

4. Enough people hate both candidates that Jo Jorgensen draws tons of votes away from both candidates. (Or better yet, actually polls well enough to make a debate stage) I think this would help Biden more than Trump.

5. The Supreme Court rules against the States in the Faithless elector case. A ruling like this would free the electors in the Electoral College to vote for who they want without being tied to any candidate. If you get enough faithless electors in the Electoral College, all hell could break loose.

6. Jesse Ventura gets in the race on the Green Party candidate. Although this is a national election, he beat the odds and was elected Governor as an independent in the past.


Those are just a few things in play here. But if I had guess, I have Biden at 336 electoral votes, and Trump at 201, and you can flip 31 more of those if Georgia and North Carolina fall.


I think Trump's Achilles, and as evidenced by his last few months, is that he won't back down from feeding the meat to his base. These are folks that won't vote Democratic even if they were starving and needed food to live. Trump can't win as long as he does this. He thinks he will since it worked in 2016, but 2016 he was able to sew enough doubt about Clinton to move on. He won't be able to do that to Biden.

Item #2 has about a .01% chance of happening as Reade has lost a lot of credibility, and this story of hers depends on credibility since all "evidence" can't be found.
Where ever you go, there you are.
 
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Aaron747
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Re: Will Donald Trump get a second term?

Tue Jun 09, 2020 1:24 am

The Lincoln Project and other Never Trump groups are hitting all the angles the Biden campaign is failing to. Biden’s ads are mostly about leadership - Never Trump GOP ads are about damage - ‘mourning in America’, testimonials from Trump voters who lost their businesses, etc. The coup de grace would be if they air an ad showing clips of 45 palling around with Epstein and list the other known pedos he has associated with. That’ll seal the deal on any suburban women still lingering in the ‘on the fence’ category. ‘Locker room talk’ is far more excusable than palling around with (possibly enabling or joining in too) abusers of kids.
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TWA772LR
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Re: Will Donald Trump get a second term?

Tue Jun 09, 2020 1:50 am

GOP runs the College right now. All incumbent congressmen can be vocal against Trump all day long but at the end of the day party lines, are party lines. As much as I don’t want to see it, I think he will be re-elected.
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maverick4002
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Re: Will Donald Trump get a second term?

Tue Jun 09, 2020 2:08 am

I hope not. Too many words to describe how awful he is. I am content this past week in the knoweledge that he is widely viewed as an imbecile and coward having to turn off the white house lights and hide in a bunker. I hope he sees the sad irony of championing to build a wall and then he hs to build a fence to keep Americans from him, how everyone right chastised his idiotic bible photo up. He is so stupid.
 
SteelChair
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Re: Will Donald Trump get a second term?

Tue Jun 09, 2020 2:11 am

Trump will win in a landslide. The elitists don't care about the forgotten voter, they think the USA is "post industrial." Remember Obama talking about the magic wand? https://youtu.be/BRTGQUISjI0

Trump has delivered on jobs, the economy, foreign relations ("allies" in NATO are paying more, fewer troops in the sandbox, terrorism "down"), judges, the right to protect yourself and your property/2nd amendment, energy, and on and on. For some indescribable reason the Never Trump RINOS would rather lose with "honor" than get down in the mud and give back to the democrats what they have been dishing out since they stole the 1960 Presidential election and started all this mess (Vietnam, the drug culture, free love, killing innocent unborn children, paying people not to work, etc.)

Trump has delivered on sovereignty. Borders matter. I don't want to live in a world without French wine or Italian food or Japanese cars (can anyone beat Toyota?). The global elites want do away with borders, for everyone to be the same (while they preach diversity).

With regard to this latest crisis, he and his voters can differentiate between peaceful protest and looters. Why is Mattis so adamant about protecting looters? What part of "peaceful assembly" in the constitution has CNN Chris forgotten about? Any other "journalist" makes a gaff that big, he's gone. Not at CNN. https://www.realclearpolitics.com/video ... posed.html

There was no Russia collusion, the was no Ukrainian quid pro quo (except for $83,000/month Hunter). Its all just part of the resist movement. It's so transparent, you have to be a hater not to see it. New York never needed 40,000 ventilators and couldn't find half the supplies that were sent to them because of rampant corruption. Everywhere the map is blue is where the biggest problems are, yet all the "leaders" there can do is foment hate for the lawfully elected President.

I suggest reading Victor Davis Hanson.
 
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WarRI1
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Re: Will Donald Trump get a second term?

Tue Jun 09, 2020 2:28 am

I read Victor Davis Hanson, a hate monger of the right wing. His column appears in my local newspaper. I have yet to see one unbiased column from this man. I had a running duel with the Editor about this garbage he writes. He always has to jab anybody in not agreement with his far right BS.
It is better to die on your feet, than live on your knees.
 
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Aaron747
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Re: Will Donald Trump get a second term?

Tue Jun 09, 2020 2:30 am

Five paragraphs running cover for a disgraceful non-leader who has Epstein skeletons in the closet, followed by a nod to disgraced historian Hanson. Incredible.
If you need someone to blame / throw a rock in the air / you'll hit someone guilty
 
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WarRI1
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Re: Will Donald Trump get a second term?

Tue Jun 09, 2020 2:45 am

Aaron747 wrote:
Five paragraphs running cover for a disgraceful non-leader who has Epstein skeletons in the closet, followed by a nod to disgraced historian Hanson. Incredible.



:checkmark: :checkmark:
It is better to die on your feet, than live on your knees.
 
SteelChair
Posts: 1428
Joined: Fri Aug 25, 2017 11:37 am

Re: Will Donald Trump get a second term?

Tue Jun 09, 2020 2:49 am

Epstein skeletons????? Bwhaaa! Bill Clinton much?

Disgraced? Hate monger? Thats right, Stanford and the University of California support and employ such people.

What those two posts illustrate is the hatred of the left. Can't make an argument, resort to ad hominem attacks. Anyone who disagrees is a (full in the blank).

I loved it when they said Trump was anti Semitic. Then he pulled out his awards from Jewish organizations and moved the Embassy.

Cmon, hopefully you can do better than this? Nah, I guess not.

I haven't grown tired of winning.
Last edited by SteelChair on Tue Jun 09, 2020 2:52 am, edited 1 time in total.
 
marcelh
Posts: 1011
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Re: Will Donald Trump get a second term?

Tue Jun 09, 2020 2:49 am

SteelChair wrote:
Trump will win in a landslide. The elitists don't care about the forgotten voter, they think the USA is "post industrial." Remember Obama talking about the magic wand? https://youtu.be/BRTGQUISjI0

Trump has delivered on jobs, the economy, foreign relations ("allies" in NATO are paying more, fewer troops in the sandbox, terrorism "down"), judges, the right to protect yourself and your property/2nd amendment, energy, and on and on. For some indescribable reason the Never Trump RINOS would rather lose with "honor" than get down in the mud and give back to the democrats what they have been dishing out since they stole the 1960 Presidential election and started all this mess (Vietnam, the drug culture, free love, killing innocent unborn children, paying people not to work, etc.)

Trump has delivered on sovereignty. Borders matter. I don't want to live in a world without French wine or Italian food or Japanese cars (can anyone beat Toyota?). The global elites want do away with borders, for everyone to be the same (while they preach diversity).

With regard to this latest crisis, he and his voters can differentiate between peaceful protest and looters. Why is Mattis so adamant about protecting looters? What part of "peaceful assembly" in the constitution has CNN Chris forgotten about? Any other "journalist" makes a gaff that big, he's gone. Not at CNN. https://www.realclearpolitics.com/video ... posed.html

There was no Russia collusion, the was no Ukrainian quid pro quo (except for $83,000/month Hunter). Its all just part of the resist movement. It's so transparent, you have to be a hater not to see it. New York never needed 40,000 ventilators and couldn't find half the supplies that were sent to them because of rampant corruption. Everywhere the map is blue is where the biggest problems are, yet all the "leaders" there can do is foment hate for the lawfully elected President.

I suggest reading Victor Davis Hanson.

Unfortunately, I think you’re right about the outcome of the elections and why he will win. Your statement also makes it clear why the rest of the world -especially the countries with relatively strong ties- should cut a lot of those ties and move on.
 
SteelChair
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Re: Will Donald Trump get a second term?

Tue Jun 09, 2020 2:50 am

Dupe
 
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WarRI1
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Re: Will Donald Trump get a second term?

Tue Jun 09, 2020 2:54 am

Winning what, why do you not expound on all the winning, give us a list of wins since he was elected and now. Just a statement does not quite prove much.
It is better to die on your feet, than live on your knees.
 
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Aaron747
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Re: Will Donald Trump get a second term?

Tue Jun 09, 2020 3:02 am

SteelChair wrote:
Epstein skeletons????? Bwhaaa! Bill Clinton much?

Disgraced? Hate monger? Thats right, Stanford and the University of California support and employ such people.

What those two posts illustrate is the hatred of the left. Can't make an argument, resort to ad hominid attacks. Anyone who disagrees is a (full in the blank).

I loved it when they said Trump was anti Semitic. Then he pulled out his awards from Jewish organizations and moved the Embassy.

Cmon, hopefully you can do better than this? Nah, I guess not.

I haven't grown tired of winning.


Whataboutism is not an argument. Both 42 and 45 are guilty of palling around with Epstein and likely much more if the hush money and sealed grand jury records say anything. Silence is tacit approval - you’ll not find a single post of mine defending 42 from allegations. Continuing to support a non-leader who has associated with multiple pedos is your perogative.

Hanson’s peers no longer have any respect for him, but the Hoover I. doesn’t kick people out only for being partisan and shooting their own feet.

On other topics, I’d gladly refer you to data and documents that show your conclusions are in error, but we’ve learned over these three years that is a hollow exercise for fervent 45’ers.

And you can label me whatever you like, I have been registered ‘I’ since 2002.
If you need someone to blame / throw a rock in the air / you'll hit someone guilty
 
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Veigar
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Re: Will Donald Trump get a second term?

Tue Jun 09, 2020 3:21 am

People in 2016 said Hillary had a 99% chance (or something close to that number) to win. Most people are not happy with the looting/protesting, nor what's going on. I personally think he will be re-elected, if not for that, but because Biden's campaign seems to just be "I am not trump"
 
alfa164
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Re: Will Donald Trump get a second term?

Tue Jun 09, 2020 4:25 am

Veigar wrote:
I personally think he will be re-elected, if not for that, but because Biden's campaign seems to just be "I am not trump"


After the sh*tshow we have suffered from over the past three-and-a-half years, "I am not Trump" should be enough to propel anyone to an overwhelming victory.
I'm going to have a smokin' hot body again!
I have decided to be cremated....
 
TARTRESED
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Re: Will Donald Trump get a second term?

Tue Jun 09, 2020 5:02 am

Any more time with Trump is inconceivable. I won't even dignify him by calling him a president.
 
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DocLightning
Posts: 21816
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Re: Will Donald Trump get a second term?

Tue Jun 09, 2020 5:05 am

Remember that what matters is the electoral college. As of Early April (before the most recent round of protests hit), the UVA's Center for Politics had the DNC with 248 electoral votes. To get pushed over 270, Pennsylvania (20 EV) and either WI, NC, or AZ (10, 15, and 11 EV, respectively) have to be won. I think that WI, while most pollsters rate it as "toss-up" is Mr. Biden's to lose. Arizona has been in a transition from a solid red state in 2012 to a dark purple state now in 2020. My guess is that by 2024, AZ will be considered a blue state.

More recently, states like GA, TX, and FL have come into play. If Mr. Biden takes Texas, the GOP will need to do some serious introspection (assuming they are still capable of such). But even without TX, this is Mr. Biden's race to lose. In 2016, Mr. Trump won by about 70,000 votes spread out over three states. This was in the setting of an unpopular DNC candidate, general lack of awareness of Russian trolls, and a general attitude that Mrs. Clinton was going to win in any event and that there was no way that Mr. Trump would win the Presidency, so people voted for third parties or didn't show up to vote.

In 2020, I know of lots of people who say they voted for Mr. Trump and regret it, but I have yet to hear anyone say that they voted for Mrs. Clinton and now will vote for Mr. Trump. Voters understand that Mr. Trump winning the election is not a wildly unlikely eventuality, but rather is the default state, and a lot of the nation is seriously disgusted with recent events and the handling of both the pandemic and the protests.

At this point, the question is less about whether Mr. Trump will lose and more about how he will react.
-Doc Lightning-

"The sky calls to us. If we do not destroy ourselves, we will one day venture to the stars."
-Carl Sagan
 
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stl07
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Re: Will Donald Trump get a second term?

Tue Jun 09, 2020 5:05 am

If Trump wins, it will be because of entitled progressives and Bernie bros voting for him or sitting out to "get back at the DNC" for having free and fair primary elections, not unlike 2016 actually
Instead of typing in "mods", consider using the report function.
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tommy1808
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Re: Will Donald Trump get a second term?

Tue Jun 09, 2020 5:16 am

Veigar wrote:
People in 2016 said Hillary had a 99% chance (or something close to that number) to win."


that is an urban legend. His actual chance of winning was 1 in 4 on election eve.

best regards
Thomas
Well, there is prophecy in the bible after all: 2 Timothy 3:1-6
 
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bgm
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Re: Will Donald Trump get a second term?

Tue Jun 09, 2020 6:18 am

DocLightning wrote:
At this point, the question is less about whether Mr. Trump will lose and more about how he will react.


This.

If he loses, he will not go quietly.
If you hate wearing a mask, you’re really going to hate using a ventilator.
 
dampfnudel
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Re: Will Donald Trump get a second term?

Tue Jun 09, 2020 6:26 am

lugie wrote:
If the election were held right now, or in a few weeks, I think he would lose. And probably lose big.

His handling of this crisis and especially his wannabe authoritarian calls for military intervention and the attack on peaceful protestors for the photo-op last Monday have drawn stronger than ever outrage in his own party, even among current and former cabinet members.
Even the military seems to be very unhappy with him at the moment, a sentiment that was not quite appeased -mildly put- by his calls this weekend to draw down the U.S. Army presence in Germany by over one quarter.

Moreover, a clear majority of Americans stands with the cause of the current protest movement despite what right-wing media claims:
In one poll, 78% said they found the protests partially or fully justified with only 18% considering them not at all justified (Source).
Likewise, a Reuters poll found 65% of Americans sympathetic to the cause, including a slight majority (!) of rural respondents and 70% of suburban respondents (Source).

That said, nobody knows yet what the situation will look like come October and November.
A lot of factors are still entirely up in the air, such as the further human and economic toll of the coronavirus crisis, the rollout (or lack) of widespread vote-by-mail, Biden's VP (or rather the entire Dem Ticket depending on Biden's health and past scandals), further blatant undemocratic transgressions by the Trump administration, further crumbling support in the GOP, a potential 3rd challenger (likely from the conservative camp but possibly also on the left), ...

With the way 2020 has been going so far, I think we’re pretty much guaranteed an October surprise. :shock:
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tommy1808
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Re: Will Donald Trump get a second term?

Tue Jun 09, 2020 7:18 am

dampfnudel wrote:
lugie wrote:
If the election were held right now, or in a few weeks, I think he would lose. And probably lose big.

His handling of this crisis and especially his wannabe authoritarian calls for military intervention and the attack on peaceful protestors for the photo-op last Monday have drawn stronger than ever outrage in his own party, even among current and former cabinet members.
Even the military seems to be very unhappy with him at the moment, a sentiment that was not quite appeased -mildly put- by his calls this weekend to draw down the U.S. Army presence in Germany by over one quarter.

Moreover, a clear majority of Americans stands with the cause of the current protest movement despite what right-wing media claims:
In one poll, 78% said they found the protests partially or fully justified with only 18% considering them not at all justified (Source).
Likewise, a Reuters poll found 65% of Americans sympathetic to the cause, including a slight majority (!) of rural respondents and 70% of suburban respondents (Source).

That said, nobody knows yet what the situation will look like come October and November.
A lot of factors are still entirely up in the air, such as the further human and economic toll of the coronavirus crisis, the rollout (or lack) of widespread vote-by-mail, Biden's VP (or rather the entire Dem Ticket depending on Biden's health and past scandals), further blatant undemocratic transgressions by the Trump administration, further crumbling support in the GOP, a potential 3rd challenger (likely from the conservative camp but possibly also on the left), ...

With the way 2020 has been going so far, I think we’re pretty much guaranteed an October surprise. :shock:


I am pretty sure not just Iran and North Korea are weighing their options....

WP wrote:
Three years of Trump’s “maximum pressure” campaigns have given Iran and North Korea motive to deliver a nasty October surprise — and the abject failure of U.S. policy has given them the opportunity.


https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions ... story.html

best regards
Thomas
Well, there is prophecy in the bible after all: 2 Timothy 3:1-6
 
N757ST
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Re: Will Donald Trump get a second term?

Tue Jun 09, 2020 9:30 am

It’s going to depend on roll out of a vaccine, whether a second wave happens, and what the outcomes of these protests are.

If a second wave does not happen, we will be in the midst of a rapid economic recovery. Point Trump.

If a second wave does happen and vaccines are not available, point Biden.

If “reparations” become a party platform that will be a gigantic anchor around Biden’s neck.

If efforts to defund police departments are successful, and there is a sizable uptick in crime and violence as a result, it will also be an anchor around Biden’s neck.

Polls 5 months out are fairly meaningless, and Americans have short memories. If the virus is no longer an issue Trump has a good chance as most incumbents usually do well. I think going forward it’s going to be how left does Biden have to go? If he plays the centrist card he’ll lose some democratic voters but will pick up moderate republicans. If he goes left he’ll energize his base but he will turn off moderates and independents. It just too early to tell right now especially when there is so much going on in the country and world.
 
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lugie
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Re: Will Donald Trump get a second term?

Tue Jun 09, 2020 9:55 am

dampfnudel wrote:
With the way 2020 has been going so far, I think we’re pretty much guaranteed an October surprise. :shock:



Agreed, which is why I would hope the DNC starts throwing all its resources at thoroughly investigating the Tara Reade allegations now.

If they don't do it now, it might turn into the same thing as the reopening of Hillary's e-mail investigations in late October of 2016. It's probably even more likely that would happen, as I wouldn't put it past Trump to abuse power as he has done before and get his AG to force some kind of investigation.

If that happens, Democrats would be in deep shit:
    If the investigation finds something, they're screwed and can probably write off the election as they would be forced to either defend a rapist or scramble and replace him within weeks before election day which seems practically impossible.

    And even if nothing was to be found, then, just like in 2016, such an exoneration might come too late. Comey reopened the investigation about 2 weeks before election day, around the time when many voters with absentee ballots were forced to make up their minds. The result that nothing was found came mere days before the election

Therefore, I think they'd be better off doing all of that right now:
    If they were to find something on Biden, they could still rather easily replace him with... literally anyone, confirm that new candidate at the convention and have them ride out the current wave of support for Biden (that is, support for non-Trump). It would allow them to solidify their image of the party of believing survivors and to take Trump's own misconduct allegations and palling around with Epstein into their crosshairs.

    And obviously, if an investigation right now finds nothing, the same conclusion holds true and they can proceed with Biden who, at the moment, is polling at a staggering 14-percentage point lead over Trump. The highest Hillary ever got was 8 and it implies that even after accounting for a 5% margin of error and another 5%-lead in the popular vote being absorbed by the EC, he's ahead by 4%
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tommy1808
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Re: Will Donald Trump get a second term?

Tue Jun 09, 2020 11:16 am

lugie wrote:
dampfnudel wrote:
With the way 2020 has been going so far, I think we’re pretty much guaranteed an October surprise. :shock:



Agreed, which is why I would hope the DNC starts throwing all its resources at thoroughly investigating the Tara Reade allegations now.

If they don't do it now, it might turn into the same thing as the reopening of Hillary's e-mail investigations in late October of 2016.


An investigation into something 20 years past its statute of limitation would not be a bit too obvious a political hit job?

And the counter would be obvious... "he doesn't even want you to see his tax returns" to "I support the investigation, but have to wonder why 19 sexual abuse allegation are not investigated, even if the perpetrator is on record admitting to sexual assault".

Since everybody knows the Trump government is absolutely willing to make up "evidence" it is.quite hard to imagine that anyone would believe anything bad about biden, even if they had video, that wouldn't vote for him anyways. And I would absolutely expect there to be some seep fake videos later in the year.

Best regards
Thomas
Well, there is prophecy in the bible after all: 2 Timothy 3:1-6
 
N757ST
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Re: Will Donald Trump get a second term?

Tue Jun 09, 2020 11:43 am

tommy1808 wrote:
lugie wrote:
dampfnudel wrote:
With the way 2020 has been going so far, I think we’re pretty much guaranteed an October surprise. :shock:



Agreed, which is why I would hope the DNC starts throwing all its resources at thoroughly investigating the Tara Reade allegations now.

If they don't do it now, it might turn into the same thing as the reopening of Hillary's e-mail investigations in late October of 2016.


An investigation into something 20 years past its statute of limitation would not be a bit too obvious a political hit job?

And the counter would be obvious... "he doesn't even want you to see his tax returns" to "I support the investigation, but have to wonder why 19 sexual abuse allegation are not investigated, even if the perpetrator is on record admitting to sexual assault".

Since everybody knows the Trump government is absolutely willing to make up "evidence" it is.quite hard to imagine that anyone would believe anything bad about biden, even if they had video, that wouldn't vote for him anyways. And I would absolutely expect there to be some seep fake videos later in the year.

Best regards
Thomas



And yet when Kavanaugh had 35 year old allegations brought against him where the “victim” couldn’t remember where it happened, or when, an entire movement marched on congress. Hearings were held, actresses marched in costume, and we were told every woman is to believed regardless of evidence. Oh, until Joe Biden’s allegation, then we just believe him.

(This isn’t a knock on Biden, this is a knock on hypocrisy. I don’t see enough evidence so far that anything happened here, but there certainly wasn’t enough evidence against Kavanaugh to justify that sh!t show)
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