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Aesma
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Re: Will Donald Trump get a second term?

Wed Jun 24, 2020 5:40 pm

I think he can't win, but I also thought he couldn't win the first time, so there is that.

I had a chuckle at the law & order thing though, Trump is president at the moment, and it's utter chaos.
New Technology is the name we give to stuff that doesn't work yet. Douglas Adams
 
ewt340
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Re: Will Donald Trump get a second term?

Wed Jun 24, 2020 6:16 pm

To be fair, if he wins again, but lose both the senate and house of representatives to the Democrats. Then it would be game over for him regardless.

And if he wins, it would be because of electoral wins rather than popular vote.
 
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OA412
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Re: Will Donald Trump get a second term?

Wed Jun 24, 2020 11:05 pm

BN747 wrote:
#3 Michael Cohen/Rosie O'Donnell - that will definitely be loaded with multiple kitchen sinks.
The Challenge to be better than the book before yours...it's on!

I'd place this one in the "who cares" pile. They're both morons and their book will only appeal to those Democrats who are about as fact free as rabid Trump voters. I loathe John Bolton. He's a horrid human being with extremist views, but I'd be willing to take his word any day over a disbarred attorney and Rosie O'Donnell.
sierrakilo44 wrote:
Fox News blew a fuse when Obama wore a tan suit and put mustard on a hamburger.

It was dijon mustard. He's clearly a traitor. :lol:
Aaron747 wrote:
He has known this his whole life - it explains the projective overconfidence and inability to be empathetic or humble.

Precisely this. No truly confident person has to project to the degree that Trump does. A tough guy doesn't have to repeatedly tell you he's a tough guy, he just is. We all know he's a wimpy loser. We've all seen the video of him clutching his body guards for dear life while soiling his pants.
Hughes Airwest - Top Banana In The West
 
BN747
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Re: Will Donald Trump get a second term?

Thu Jun 25, 2020 12:28 am

OA412 wrote:
BN747 wrote:
#3 Michael Cohen/Rosie O'Donnell - that will definitely be loaded with multiple kitchen sinks.
The Challenge to be better than the book before yours...it's on!

I'd place this one in the "who cares" pile. They're both morons and their book will only appeal to those Democrats who are about as fact free as rabid Trump voters. I loathe John Bolton. He's a horrid human being with extremist views, but I'd be willing to take his word any day over a disbarred attorney and Rosie O'Donnell.


Your take on Rosie is understandably your own and fair game.

But how are you going to disparage Cohen, the disbarred attorney, when he was disbarred for doing the work of his co-conspirator, Individual #One (trump)....something's off amiss.
One is a disbarred attorney, the other half is running the worlds premiere Super Power. As co criminals aren't each equally tainted?

BN747
"Home of the Brave, made by the Slaves..Land of the Free, if you look like me.." T. Jefferson
 
AA747123
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Re: Will Donald Trump get a second term?

Thu Jun 25, 2020 3:53 pm

So far early campaign adds by Trump are spot on. Trump created the strongest economy ever. Lowest ever unemployment, highest stock market and just getting started. Also Biden dementia is very apparent that he is senile and has no business being POTUS.
I still predict the biggest landslide since Regan in 1984!
 
tommy1808
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Re: Will Donald Trump get a second term?

Thu Jun 25, 2020 3:55 pm

AA747123 wrote:
So far early campaign adds by Trump are spot on. Trump created the strongest economy ever.


That was Obama & Biden. Trump is the one that crashed the trend he had already slowed.

Best regards
Thomas
Well, there is prophecy in the bible after all: 2 Timothy 3:1-6
 
zakuivcustom
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Re: Will Donald Trump get a second term?

Thu Jun 25, 2020 4:03 pm

AA747123 wrote:
So far early campaign adds by Trump are spot on. Trump created the strongest economy ever. Lowest ever unemployment, highest stock market and just getting started. Also Biden dementia is very apparent that he is senile and has no business being POTUS.
I still predict the biggest landslide since Regan in 1984!


Well, I am also predicting the biggest landslide since 1984.

In favor of Biden, that is.

More seriously, out of the states that Hillary won (normally 232 EV), only 3 are remotely close (NH, MN, and NV), and none of them looks like flipping, so that's 232 EV for Biden as a baseline.

MI, which Trump barely won, can flip back easily to blue. That's 16 EV.
PA, which Trump also barely won, is another 20 EV.

Just those two states, which Trump won by a grand total of 55k vote, puts Biden at 268 EV.

Throw in WI or AZ then it is already game over for Trump.

Landslide? When the 53 EV of CA alone is more than what Carter got in 1980?
 
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casinterest
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Re: Will Donald Trump get a second term?

Thu Jun 25, 2020 4:26 pm

AA747123 wrote:
So far early campaign adds by Trump are spot on. Trump created the strongest economy ever. Lowest ever unemployment, highest stock market and just getting started. Also Biden dementia is very apparent that he is senile and has no business being POTUS.
I still predict the biggest landslide since Regan in 1984!



You mean by having a lower GDP than Obama and Biden?
Having to bail out farmers?
Using like Tax Cuts that drove up the national deficit?
Not leading during a crisis?
Where ever you go, there you are.
 
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Tugger
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Re: Will Donald Trump get a second term?

Thu Jun 25, 2020 4:27 pm

AA747123 wrote:
So far early campaign adds by Trump are spot on. Trump created the strongest economy ever. Lowest ever unemployment, highest stock market and just getting started.

Do the commercials also mention the strongest virus impacts and the highest unemployment claims in the history of the USA? The most severe racial tensions in nearly 50 years? If not why not? If the successes in the begining of his term of due to him those must also be as well, yes?

Tugg
I don’t know that I am unafraid to be myself, but it is hard to be somebody else. - W. Shatner
There are many kinds of sentences that we think state facts about the world but that are really just expressions of our attitudes. - F. Ramsey
 
zakuivcustom
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Re: Will Donald Trump get a second term?

Thu Jun 25, 2020 5:43 pm

Tugger wrote:
AA747123 wrote:
So far early campaign adds by Trump are spot on. Trump created the strongest economy ever. Lowest ever unemployment, highest stock market and just getting started.

Do the commercials also mention the strongest virus impacts and the highest unemployment claims in the history of the USA? The most severe racial tensions in nearly 50 years? If not why not? If the successes in the begining of his term of due to him those must also be as well, yes?

Tugg


Adding on, is the economy even "strongest" ever?

Even before Covid-19, the economy is already start to show weakness as growth are slowing. The stock market kept climbing, but only bc of the artificially low interest rate where companies can just borrow and spent like there is no tomorrow.

Meanwhile, the promised manufacturing jobs? Nonexistent. The rich get even richer while everyone else is still fighting for scraps.

Don't get me started on crisis management. When US need leadership most during the current pandemic, all I saw was a wild west situation where states are fighting each other, cities are fighting state governments. UNITED States of America? It is anything but that!
==========
BTW, no, I don't see Biden solving any problems, either. But at least he won't ADD to the problem, something that Trump is very good at.
 
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Aaron747
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Re: Will Donald Trump get a second term?

Thu Jun 25, 2020 11:17 pm

AA747123 wrote:
So far early campaign adds by Trump are spot on. Trump created the strongest economy ever. Lowest ever unemployment, highest stock market and just getting started. Also Biden dementia is very apparent that he is senile and has no business being POTUS.
I still predict the biggest landslide since Regan in 1984!


45 is nothing like 40, not even close.

As for your ‘strongest economy ever’ that is easily disproved as others suggest. The strongest economy ever was the 1955-1972 period when annualized GDP was over 5% eleven times. Just this spring we have watched a 5% reduction in quarterly GDP generate over 40 million job losses - that proved there was neither a strong economy or leadership.
If you need someone to blame / throw a rock in the air / you'll hit someone guilty
 
AA747123
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Re: Will Donald Trump get a second term?

Fri Jun 26, 2020 12:35 am

There is no way Biden can beat Trump in Florida. Without Florida no way Biden can win. This is why we have the electoral college. The true will of the people
 
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Aaron747
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Re: Will Donald Trump get a second term?

Fri Jun 26, 2020 12:54 am

AA747123 wrote:
There is no way Biden can beat Trump in Florida. Without Florida no way Biden can win. This is why we have the electoral college. The true will of the people


Wondering why someone with your handle is posting this instead of participating in the ‘AA early 747’ thread on Civ-Av.
If you need someone to blame / throw a rock in the air / you'll hit someone guilty
 
zakuivcustom
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Re: Will Donald Trump get a second term?

Fri Jun 26, 2020 1:12 am

AA747123 wrote:
There is no way Biden can beat Trump in Florida. Without Florida no way Biden can win. This is why we have the electoral college. The true will of the people


Umm...

MI, PA, and AZ would like to have a word with you.

And Trump is the same person that managed to turn TX into a possible swing state. The only other person that managed that was Ted Cruz. Keep in mind Gov. Abbott was elected with a 10-point margin in the middle of a mini-blue wave.
 
cpd
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Re: Will Donald Trump get a second term?

Fri Jun 26, 2020 4:02 am

AA747123 wrote:
So far early campaign adds by Trump are spot on. Trump created the strongest economy ever. Lowest ever unemployment, highest stock market and just getting started. Also Biden dementia is very apparent that he is senile and has no business being POTUS.
I still predict the biggest landslide since Regan in 1984!


Lowest ever unemployment seems highly dubious given jobs being lost everywhere due to the pandemic.

Planes are being parked or retired in huge numbers as well.
 
717atOGG
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Re: Will Donald Trump get a second term?

Fri Jun 26, 2020 5:12 am

AA747123 wrote:
There is no way Biden can beat Trump in Florida. Without Florida no way Biden can win. This is why we have the electoral college. The true will of the people

You sure about that? Granted, there's 4.5 months between now and Election Day, but currently Biden has a 7.3% lead over Trump in Florida, well outside of the margin of error, and that gap has only increased in the past few months.

Source: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/po ... l/florida/
A320/321, A332, 712, 73G/8/9ER, 744, 752/3, E145, E175
 
tommy1808
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Re: Will Donald Trump get a second term?

Fri Jun 26, 2020 5:14 am

717atOGG wrote:
AA747123 wrote:
There is no way Biden can beat Trump in Florida. Without Florida no way Biden can win. This is why we have the electoral college. The true will of the people

You sure about that? Granted, there's 4.5 months between now and Election Day, but currently Biden has a 7.3% lead over Trump in Florida, well outside of the margin of error, and that gap has only increased in the past few months.

Source: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/po ... l/florida/


Heck, Trumps lead in Texas, yes Texas, is just a fraction of the margin of error....

best regards
Thomas
Well, there is prophecy in the bible after all: 2 Timothy 3:1-6
 
tommy1808
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Re: Will Donald Trump get a second term?

Fri Jun 26, 2020 7:09 am

AA747123 wrote:
Also Biden dementia is very apparent that he is senile and has no business being POTUS.


But Trump with his seemingly rapidly progressing Alzheimer is?

Before the end of his 2nd Term we would probably see him drooling during speeches. ......

Non-US Media don´t have a goldberg Rule to adhere to and have been commenting on the glaringly obvious for way over a year.

best regards
Thomas
Well, there is prophecy in the bible after all: 2 Timothy 3:1-6
 
marcelh
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Re: Will Donald Trump get a second term?

Fri Jun 26, 2020 9:21 am

AA747123 wrote:
So far early campaign adds by Trump are spot on. Trump created the strongest economy ever. Lowest ever unemployment, highest stock market and just getting started. Also Biden dementia is very apparent that he is senile and has no business being POTUS.
I still predict the biggest landslide since Regan in 1984!


Trump will win, no matter what. The so called "democracy" in the USA will fix it.
 
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casinterest
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Re: Will Donald Trump get a second term?

Fri Jun 26, 2020 12:40 pm

So Trump's next great plan for reelection is to turn to his old boogeyman and make sure Obamacare is destroyed for good.

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/donald ... c-n1232203

The Trump administration is asking the Supreme Court to wipe out Obamacare, arguing that the individual mandate is unconstitutional and that the rest of the law must be struck down with it.

The late-night brief, filed Thursday in the middle of the coronavirus pandemic, carries major implications for the presidential election. If the justices agree, it would cost an estimated 20 million Americans their insurance coverage and nullify protections for pre-existing conditions.



Does Trump enjoy creating his own catastrophes?
Where ever you go, there you are.
 
alfa164
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Re: Will Donald Trump get a second term?

Fri Jun 26, 2020 4:32 pm

casinterest wrote:
So Trump's next great plan for reelection is to turn to his old boogeyman and make sure Obamacare is destroyed for good.
https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/donald ... c-n1232203

The Trump administration is asking the Supreme Court to wipe out Obamacare, arguing that the individual mandate is unconstitutional and that the rest of the law must be struck down with it.
The late-night brief, filed Thursday in the middle of the coronavirus pandemic, carries major implications for the presidential election. If the justices agree, it would cost an estimated 20 million Americans their insurance coverage and nullify protections for pre-existing conditions.


Does Trump enjoy creating his own catastrophes?


Trump seems to be incapable of understanding: the more he isolates himself politically, appealing only to the most radical of his base, the less votes he will receive from the vast "middle" of the electorate. His supporters are shrinking in numbers before his very eyes.

Either that, or he has a political death wish: realizing he is going to lose the election, he will continue his attempts to undo anything that was done under Obama. His jealousy and hatred of his predecessor is his obsession - a very unhealthy obsession, for both him and for the nation.
I'm going to have a smokin' hot body again!
I have decided to be cremated....
 
Dieuwer
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Re: Will Donald Trump get a second term?

Fri Jun 26, 2020 4:44 pm

casinterest wrote:
So Trump's next great plan for reelection is to turn to his old boogeyman and make sure Obamacare is destroyed for good.

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/donald ... c-n1232203

The Trump administration is asking the Supreme Court to wipe out Obamacare, arguing that the individual mandate is unconstitutional and that the rest of the law must be struck down with it.

The late-night brief, filed Thursday in the middle of the coronavirus pandemic, carries major implications for the presidential election. If the justices agree, it would cost an estimated 20 million Americans their insurance coverage and nullify protections for pre-existing conditions.



Does Trump enjoy creating his own catastrophes?


Yeah, I just saw that. Where the hell does that idea suddenly come from??
The country is in the middle of a yuuuge pandemic, and NOW Trump thinks it is time to kill Obamacare??

(Tone deaf)² !
 
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readytotaxi
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Re: Will Donald Trump get a second term?

Fri Jun 26, 2020 5:50 pm

the guy has done such damage to the standing of the office of the President around the world, hope you people get some of quality soon.
you don't get a second chance to make a first impression!
Growing older, but not up.
 
Dieuwer
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Re: Will Donald Trump get a second term?

Fri Jun 26, 2020 6:02 pm

I almost seems like Trump WANTS to lose...
 
BN747
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Re: Will Donald Trump get a second term?

Fri Jun 26, 2020 6:27 pm

readytotaxi wrote:
the guy has done such damage to the standing of the office of the President around the world, hope you people get some of quality soon.


That bothers me as well, when you grow up with an International perspective from living abroad, in America, back overseas and on and on...you have a better understanding of how your country is projected abroad.

And it hurts like hell seeing it being represented by a complete bumbling idiot...'the American leader is a foolish buffoon' - how did that happen is what they (foreigners) must be thinking, they have to be thinking this.

Now talk is drifting toward trump stepping down because his ego is being threatened by an umprecedented landslide.

Morning Joe suggests Trump may ‘leave the stage’ rather than suffer 400 electoral vote blowout in November
https://www.rawstory.com/2020/06/mornin ... -november/

...if his polls numbers get any worse, I think the pundits may be correct. Cenk Uyger TYT predicted this a year ago.

Being the lifelong coward that he is, it is only fitting that he sets the country on fire only to cut and run as he's done all his life.

BN747
"Home of the Brave, made by the Slaves..Land of the Free, if you look like me.." T. Jefferson
 
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seb146
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Re: Will Donald Trump get a second term?

Sat Jun 27, 2020 1:56 am

What is his plan for a second term besides pwning the libs? Shrinking the debt? Health care for all? Living wage? Voting rights? LGBTQ equality?
You bet I'm pumped!!! I just had a green tea!!!
 
727LOVER
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Re: Will Donald Trump get a second term?

Sat Jun 27, 2020 2:29 am

"We must accept finite disappointment, but never lose infinite hope." - Martin Luther King, Jr.
 
BN747
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Re: Will Donald Trump get a second term?

Sat Jun 27, 2020 5:19 am

Russia Secretly Offered Afghan Militants Bounties to Kill U.S. Troops, Intelligence Says
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/06/26/us/politics/russia-afghanistan-bounties.html

He knew about this in March.

Then demanded earlier this month that Russia be allowed back in the G7 bringing it back to the G8.

He loves rewarding the absolute worst behavior...usually friends like him.

Since Conservatives will not 'react' to these offenses..they can never be believed or relied upon for defense of America or call anyone else 'unpatriotic' again!

BLM, Kaepernick (which far from such labeling but in his empty brain, they are), no one is more 'unpatriotic' than the current US president.

He loves America about as much as he loves Robert Mueller and the SDNY.

How this can be okay with any US citizen is beyond me.

Is there any doubt who his pimp is??? Anyone?

Putin, Kim Jong Un, Duterte, Erdogan, Bolsonaro, MBS, Xi Jinping, and Al-Assad all have one thing in common. They are dictators who demand 'Law and Order' their way...who is doing his best to walk in their footsteps?

Who called him a Russian Puppet???

Image
https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/39 ... =800&h=474


..oh yeah she did...

Hate her as much as you want (Conservatives)...but she was damn right! Now go out and demand Four more years of the American Coward!

BN747
"Home of the Brave, made by the Slaves..Land of the Free, if you look like me.." T. Jefferson
 
tommy1808
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Re: Will Donald Trump get a second term?

Sat Jun 27, 2020 7:33 am

Dieuwer wrote:
casinterest wrote:
So Trump's next great plan for reelection is to turn to his old boogeyman and make sure Obamacare is destroyed for good.

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/donald ... c-n1232203

The Trump administration is asking the Supreme Court to wipe out Obamacare, arguing that the individual mandate is unconstitutional and that the rest of the law must be struck down with it.

The late-night brief, filed Thursday in the middle of the coronavirus pandemic, carries major implications for the presidential election. If the justices agree, it would cost an estimated 20 million Americans their insurance coverage and nullify protections for pre-existing conditions.



Does Trump enjoy creating his own catastrophes?


Yeah, I just saw that. Where the hell does that idea suddenly come from??
The country is in the middle of a yuuuge pandemic, and NOW Trump thinks it is time to kill Obamacare??

(Tone deaf)² !


Wasn't that the exact reason why the midterms went so wrong for the GOP?
Good :)

BN747 wrote:
Russia Secretly Offered Afghan Militants Bounties to Kill U.S. Troops, Intelligence Says
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/06/26/us/politics/russia-afghanistan-bounties.html

He knew about this in March.


Well, Putin has to test his loyalty.

Dieuwer wrote:
I almost seems like Trump WANTS to lose...


Isn't losing and not leaving the White House his only option to stay out of prison? The latest stint of obstruction of justice won't hit its statute of limitation before after his 2nd term is over.

Best regards
Thomas
Well, there is prophecy in the bible after all: 2 Timothy 3:1-6
 
afcjets
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Re: Will Donald Trump get a second term?

Sat Jun 27, 2020 7:48 pm

Win or lose it wouldn't surprise me if Trump tries to start a war with China over covid19 immediately after the election.
 
zakuivcustom
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Re: Will Donald Trump get a second term?

Sat Jun 27, 2020 9:00 pm

tommy1808 wrote:
717atOGG wrote:
AA747123 wrote:
There is no way Biden can beat Trump in Florida. Without Florida no way Biden can win. This is why we have the electoral college. The true will of the people

You sure about that? Granted, there's 4.5 months between now and Election Day, but currently Biden has a 7.3% lead over Trump in Florida, well outside of the margin of error, and that gap has only increased in the past few months.

Source: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/po ... l/florida/


Heck, Trumps lead in Texas, yes Texas, is just a fraction of the margin of error....

best regards
Thomas


And according to the latest Fox News poll, Trump is behind in Texas...

https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/5 ... -and-north

Ok, only by 1 point. But again, it is Texas where Republicans usually win by 10 points consistently.

If TX flip, NC and GA are both likely going to Biden also. Biden with 400+ EV, here we come.
 
Dieuwer
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Re: Will Donald Trump get a second term?

Sat Jun 27, 2020 9:16 pm

We basically have two old, white, straight men as presidential candidates. One is a loudmouth, the other is not.
Seems like the choice should be easy.
 
BN747
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Re: Will Donald Trump get a second term?

Sat Jun 27, 2020 9:56 pm

Dieuwer wrote:
We basically have two old, white, straight men as presidential candidates. One is a loudmouth, the other is not.
Seems like the choice should be easy.


One doesn't KNOW anything...anything at all but bluster and BS.

The Other is can't remember anything, some but it's slipping away.

But one of two , will sell his own mother (let alone the country) and the other will have none of that....easy choice.

This late breaking Russian Hit Job on US Troops will seal the fate of the 'Law and Order' candidate or current place holder.

BN747
"Home of the Brave, made by the Slaves..Land of the Free, if you look like me.." T. Jefferson
 
washingtonflyer
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Re: Will Donald Trump get a second term?

Sun Jun 28, 2020 3:43 pm

727LOVER wrote:

I tend to agree with this. This is 2020, this is not 2016. The name "Clinton" was like fingernails on a chalkboard to a LOT of people - not just conservative republicans. There were enough voters out there who though that Hillary was a bucket of slime to either 1) vote for Trump or 2) just not vote for president.

Biden carries absolutely none of that baggage. He has baggage - don't get me wrong. But his name does not include Clinton in it...
 
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SAS A340
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Re: Will Donald Trump get a second term?

Sun Jun 28, 2020 3:52 pm

When nothing happens, and everything pretty much running it selfs, Trump takes the glory of IT ALL, but when things go bad, like now, he is pretty useless! He can always say that if it wasn´t for him, 3 million would have died, or 10 million.... the scary thing is that he´s getting away with it! He could literally save the whole Milkyway galaxy if you ask him.
It's not what u do,it's how u do it!
 
727LOVER
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Re: Will Donald Trump get a second term?

Mon Jun 29, 2020 2:01 am

Interesting....will Trump resign ?........rather than lose?

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/06/2 ... ion-342326
"We must accept finite disappointment, but never lose infinite hope." - Martin Luther King, Jr.
 
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seb146
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Re: Will Donald Trump get a second term?

Mon Jun 29, 2020 4:11 am

More "great people" supporting king MAGA

https://www.cnn.com/2020/06/28/politics ... index.html

But this is supposed to make America great somehow? I want my change back......
You bet I'm pumped!!! I just had a green tea!!!
 
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Aesma
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Re: Will Donald Trump get a second term?

Mon Jun 29, 2020 9:50 am

Unemployment, even if it improves a lot, will be worst than in November 2016 at the time of election. In itself, that might not be enough for him to lose, but if Trump is arguing that unemployed people shouldn't have access to healthcare, then surely some of his 2016 voters, now struggling (or struggling more), will get the message. He doesn't need to lose many...

Dieuwer wrote:
I almost seems like Trump WANTS to lose...


That's one theory I saw explored on MSNBC. About the "I'm never kidding" thing, his aides were trying to smother the fire he had lit saying he wanted COVID testing to stop, and he managed to add fuel to that fire...

Of note, watching MSNBC is almost like watching Fox but batting for the other side. Except their facts are mostly right, but the tone, it's just unwatchable.

With Trump, you don't need to go overboard, state the facts, they're damning enough.
New Technology is the name we give to stuff that doesn't work yet. Douglas Adams
 
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lugie
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Re: Will Donald Trump get a second term?

Mon Jun 29, 2020 12:50 pm

casinterest wrote:
So Trump's next great plan for reelection is to turn to his old boogeyman and make sure Obamacare is destroyed for good.

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/donald ... c-n1232203

The Trump administration is asking the Supreme Court to wipe out Obamacare, arguing that the individual mandate is unconstitutional and that the rest of the law must be struck down with it.

The late-night brief, filed Thursday in the middle of the coronavirus pandemic, carries major implications for the presidential election. If the justices agree, it would cost an estimated 20 million Americans their insurance coverage and nullify protections for pre-existing conditions.



Does Trump enjoy creating his own catastrophes?


He should go right ahead with that....

I don't think it's unreasonable to assume that among those 20 million Americans who would get kicked off their healthcare coverage (in the middle of a pandemic, no less) there are a significant number of lower-middle class rural whites.
Maybe something like, I don't know, 55,000 voters across MI and PA... :scratchchin:

If he blows up Obamacare now, he will actively burn up his last potential path to victory.
If he can't pull off a repeat of his 2016 upsets in PA and MI, there's no conceivable way to a majority that I can think of.
Q400 E175 E190 CRJ7 CRJ9 CRJX MD88 A319 A320 A321 A332 A333 A359 B733 B73G B738 B739 B748 B764 B772 B77W B788 B789
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lugie
Posts: 859
Joined: Mon Jun 03, 2013 4:11 pm

Re: Will Donald Trump get a second term?

Mon Jun 29, 2020 1:30 pm

Also, for some visual perspective on the current state of the race, I compiled the latest by-state polling averages from fivethirtyeight into this map:

I designated states as...

"Tossup" when the lead for either candidate was < 1% (applies only to Texas with Trump +0.3% and Iowa with Biden +0.1%)
"Leans" when the lead was between 1% and 5%
"Likely" when the lead was between 5% and 10% and
"Safe" when the lead was >=10%

For some states there were no recent polls available yet but those were almost exclusively very red or very blue states so I just booked them as "Safe".

Image
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apodino
Posts: 3879
Joined: Mon Apr 04, 2005 2:11 am

Re: Will Donald Trump get a second term?

Mon Jun 29, 2020 7:30 pm

There was another poll today that showed Trump actually winning in Wisconsin. This is the one pollster who in 2016 predicted the Trump victory. That being said, Newsmax is a conservative leaning site so take it with a grain of salt.
https://www.newsmax.com/politics/wisconsin-biden-trump-poll/2020/06/28/id/974574/

I am not buying this though. Trump is self destructing and now you have people who have been republicans their whole lives saying they will vote for Biden. There have been shock polls which show even states such as South Carolina turning Blue. While I don't buy them, if that were to happen, this would be almost as bad as Regan over Mondale in 1984.

There is one Supreme Court ruling that hasn't come out yet that could have an effect. It is the case involving faithless electors. If the court does allow them, you could have a situation where enough of these people could cause an interesting dilemma. Remember there were a lot of faithless electors four years ago. I don't think it will have a big impact one way or the other, but it is something to think about when the ruling on this case comes down.
 
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northstardc4m
Posts: 3385
Joined: Fri Apr 28, 2000 11:23 am

Re: Will Donald Trump get a second term?

Mon Jun 29, 2020 10:17 pm

That last WI poll is by Trafalgar, C- rating on five thirty eight and almost a full point Republican historical bias... Also no real granular information provided I can find... I wouldn't use them in any analysis.

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Those who would give up Essential Liberty to purchase a little Temporary Safety, deserve neither Liberty nor Safety.
 
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Francoflier
Posts: 5277
Joined: Wed Oct 31, 2001 12:27 pm

Re: Will Donald Trump get a second term?

Tue Jun 30, 2020 3:26 am

lugie wrote:
If he blows up Obamacare now, he will actively burn up his last potential path to victory.
If he can't pull off a repeat of his 2016 upsets in PA and MI, there's no conceivable way to a majority that I can think of.


It may just be a scorched-earth tactic.
If he's gonna lose, he might as well create as much of a messy quagmire as possible for the next administration to get caught in...

At the expense of millions of lower-income Americans, but when's he ever cared about these anyway?
I'll do my own airline. With Blackjack. And hookers. In fact, forget the airline.
 
LittleFokker
Posts: 1292
Joined: Sat Sep 28, 2013 10:25 pm

Re: Will Donald Trump get a second term?

Tue Jun 30, 2020 4:27 am

I am starting to see a lot of insinuations on Twitter that Trump may resign before the election. I don't see him as the resigning type, but he may also not want to get smoked by 400 EC votes, which the latest polls suggest is possible. Granted, nothing from official sources, and Twitter is what Twitter is. But I haven't heard resignation talk this serious beyond wishful thinking. Something to keep an eye on in the coming week.
"All human activities are doomed to failure." - Jean Paul Sartre
 
Olddog
Posts: 1505
Joined: Sat Jun 25, 2016 4:41 pm

Re: Will Donald Trump get a second term?

Tue Jun 30, 2020 9:20 am

On the other hand, as an European, I really hope that Trump get reelected! He does so much damages to the US standing in the world than 4 more years should finish to destroy the US momentum since WW 2 ....
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Kno
Posts: 520
Joined: Mon Aug 15, 2016 10:08 pm

Re: Will Donald Trump get a second term?

Tue Jun 30, 2020 9:58 am

I don’t think he can win but I thought that the first time. Biden is a disappointing choice as well. I truly believe the majority of Americans would prefer neither.
 
sierrakilo44
Posts: 331
Joined: Tue Dec 13, 2011 1:38 am

Re: Will Donald Trump get a second term?

Tue Jun 30, 2020 10:43 am

Kno wrote:
I don’t think he can win but I thought that the first time. Biden is a disappointing choice as well. I truly believe the majority of Americans would prefer neither.


It was the same for 2016 I believe, but Hillary had been around longer and was disliked for longer than Trump who was still relatively new on the scene. Now Trump has the disadvantage of having a record. Biden has one too, but he’s wasn’t the most hated Democrat of the last 20 years so it’ll work to his advantage.
 
sierrakilo44
Posts: 331
Joined: Tue Dec 13, 2011 1:38 am

Re: Will Donald Trump get a second term?

Tue Jun 30, 2020 10:49 am

LittleFokker wrote:
I am starting to see a lot of insinuations on Twitter that Trump may resign before the election. I don't see him as the resigning type, but he may also not want to get smoked by 400 EC votes, which the latest polls suggest is possible. Granted, nothing from official sources, and Twitter is what Twitter is. But I haven't heard resignation talk this serious beyond wishful thinking. Something to keep an eye on in the coming week.


For someone of Trump’s ego there are two things he would dread being labelled.

A Loser or a Quitter.

But if he’s facing a massive defeat in November, an electoral college wipeout, he’ll have to choose which label he lives with for the rest of his life. I think if he’s got to choose he’d rather quit than face the loss. If he quits then he can say he tried to take down the “Swamp” but the “Deep State” or the “Lamestream Media” or the “Globalists” or “Nancy Pelosi” or whoever he blames stopped him from doing it, so he can salvage some support from his fan base so they continue to follow him on Twitter and buy his books post presidency.

But if he loses the election badly, then he gets labelled the one term he would dread the most. A Loser, a massive Loser. I don’t think many of his fans will be staying on the Trump Train if their hero becomes a loser. His ego won’t be able to handle it.

But if only say it’ll happen if Biden remains substantially ahead of Trump post debates. If Trump can’t turn it around by then he’s finished and he knows it.
 
tommy1808
Posts: 12900
Joined: Thu Nov 21, 2013 3:24 pm

Re: Will Donald Trump get a second term?

Tue Jun 30, 2020 11:44 am

sierrakilo44 wrote:
Kno wrote:
I don’t think he can win but I thought that the first time. Biden is a disappointing choice as well. I truly believe the majority of Americans would prefer neither.


It was the same for 2016 I believe, but Hillary had been around longer and was disliked for longer than Trump who was still relatively new on the scene. Now Trump has the disadvantage of having a record. Biden has one too, but he’s wasn’t the most hated Democrat of the last 20 years so it’ll work to his advantage.


Plus Biden was part of the admin that created the good economy Trump just trashed.

Best regards
Thomas
Well, there is prophecy in the bible after all: 2 Timothy 3:1-6
 
afcjets
Posts: 3454
Joined: Thu Jan 01, 2015 6:20 pm

Re: Will Donald Trump get a second term?

Tue Jun 30, 2020 1:08 pm

Olddog wrote:
On the other hand, as an European, I really hope that Trump get reelected! He does so much damages to the US standing in the world than 4 more years should finish to destroy the US momentum since WW 2 ....


Are you pulling for Russia or China to become the next superpower? Which one do you like better?
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