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Olddog
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Re: Will Donald Trump get a second term?

Tue Jun 30, 2020 1:58 pm

Russia is just an inflated doll that scares only US rednecks. For China, the time they come for EU ww3 should have happened first.:)
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aerosreenivas
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Re: Will Donald Trump get a second term?

Tue Jun 30, 2020 2:15 pm

I don't know if it is discussed earlier. Do any of you feel Justin Amash's entry into the November Election Battle as an 'Independant' will help Biden win over Trump?

Amash's entry would cut down the vote share of Trump from the 'Conservative Voters Base'.

How many of you feel that way?
 
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NWAESC
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Re: Will Donald Trump get a second term?

Tue Jun 30, 2020 2:19 pm

I thought Amash decided not to run after all?
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aerosreenivas
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Re: Will Donald Trump get a second term?

Tue Jun 30, 2020 2:23 pm

NWAESC wrote:
I thought Amash decided not to run after all?


Yup. Amash is not running. He withdrew running for election on May 16th, 2020.

But I feel he would be the best bet for Trump to not become the US President for 2nd term.
 
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casinterest
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Re: Will Donald Trump get a second term?

Tue Jun 30, 2020 3:24 pm

Thom Tillis is pushing to label Russia as a State Sponsor of Terrorism.

https://twitter.com/SenThomTillis/statu ... 4167984132

Since Trump trusts Putin more than US intelligence, it is going to be a rough go for him and Trump this next 4 months.
Where ever you go, there you are.
 
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Aesma
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Re: Will Donald Trump get a second term?

Tue Jun 30, 2020 3:56 pm

sierrakilo44 wrote:
LittleFokker wrote:
I am starting to see a lot of insinuations on Twitter that Trump may resign before the election. I don't see him as the resigning type, but he may also not want to get smoked by 400 EC votes, which the latest polls suggest is possible. Granted, nothing from official sources, and Twitter is what Twitter is. But I haven't heard resignation talk this serious beyond wishful thinking. Something to keep an eye on in the coming week.


For someone of Trump’s ego there are two things he would dread being labelled.

A Loser or a Quitter.

But if he’s facing a massive defeat in November, an electoral college wipeout, he’ll have to choose which label he lives with for the rest of his life. I think if he’s got to choose he’d rather quit than face the loss. If he quits then he can say he tried to take down the “Swamp” but the “Deep State” or the “Lamestream Media” or the “Globalists” or “Nancy Pelosi” or whoever he blames stopped him from doing it, so he can salvage some support from his fan base so they continue to follow him on Twitter and buy his books post presidency.

But if he loses the election badly, then he gets labelled the one term he would dread the most. A Loser, a massive Loser. I don’t think many of his fans will be staying on the Trump Train if their hero becomes a loser. His ego won’t be able to handle it.

But if only say it’ll happen if Biden remains substantially ahead of Trump post debates. If Trump can’t turn it around by then he’s finished and he knows it.


Who ends up on the ballot if Trump quits in October or something like that ? In France you need to give the required documents about 1 month before the election to be a candidate, but in the US I think it's longer. Can you be a candidate in all states if you didn't take part in the primary (or there was no primary) ? Also in France if a candidate has an issue during the last weeks of the campaign the election can be postponed, can the US election be postponed ?
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seb146
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Re: Will Donald Trump get a second term?

Tue Jun 30, 2020 5:25 pm

Aesma wrote:
sierrakilo44 wrote:
LittleFokker wrote:
I am starting to see a lot of insinuations on Twitter that Trump may resign before the election. I don't see him as the resigning type, but he may also not want to get smoked by 400 EC votes, which the latest polls suggest is possible. Granted, nothing from official sources, and Twitter is what Twitter is. But I haven't heard resignation talk this serious beyond wishful thinking. Something to keep an eye on in the coming week.


For someone of Trump’s ego there are two things he would dread being labelled.

A Loser or a Quitter.

But if he’s facing a massive defeat in November, an electoral college wipeout, he’ll have to choose which label he lives with for the rest of his life. I think if he’s got to choose he’d rather quit than face the loss. If he quits then he can say he tried to take down the “Swamp” but the “Deep State” or the “Lamestream Media” or the “Globalists” or “Nancy Pelosi” or whoever he blames stopped him from doing it, so he can salvage some support from his fan base so they continue to follow him on Twitter and buy his books post presidency.

But if he loses the election badly, then he gets labelled the one term he would dread the most. A Loser, a massive Loser. I don’t think many of his fans will be staying on the Trump Train if their hero becomes a loser. His ego won’t be able to handle it.

But if only say it’ll happen if Biden remains substantially ahead of Trump post debates. If Trump can’t turn it around by then he’s finished and he knows it.


Who ends up on the ballot if Trump quits in October or something like that ? In France you need to give the required documents about 1 month before the election to be a candidate, but in the US I think it's longer. Can you be a candidate in all states if you didn't take part in the primary (or there was no primary) ? Also in France if a candidate has an issue during the last weeks of the campaign the election can be postponed, can the US election be postponed ?


The Twelfth Amendment deals with the Electoral College and how presidents are chosen. If the sitting president loses the Electoral College, s/he must vacate the office by January 20 at noon, IIRC. The Electoral College meets in December to chose a president. It is spelled out in the Twelfth Amendment as well as Article 2, Section 1, Clause 4 setting the date of the election.
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Dieuwer
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Re: Will Donald Trump get a second term?

Tue Jun 30, 2020 5:28 pm

sierrakilo44 wrote:
LittleFokker wrote:
I am starting to see a lot of insinuations on Twitter that Trump may resign before the election. I don't see him as the resigning type, but he may also not want to get smoked by 400 EC votes, which the latest polls suggest is possible. Granted, nothing from official sources, and Twitter is what Twitter is. But I haven't heard resignation talk this serious beyond wishful thinking. Something to keep an eye on in the coming week.


For someone of Trump’s ego there are two things he would dread being labelled.

A Loser or a Quitter.

But if he’s facing a massive defeat in November, an electoral college wipeout, he’ll have to choose which label he lives with for the rest of his life. I think if he’s got to choose he’d rather quit than face the loss. If he quits then he can say he tried to take down the “Swamp” but the “Deep State” or the “Lamestream Media” or the “Globalists” or “Nancy Pelosi” or whoever he blames stopped him from doing it, so he can salvage some support from his fan base so they continue to follow him on Twitter and buy his books post presidency.

But if he loses the election badly, then he gets labelled the one term he would dread the most. A Loser, a massive Loser. I don’t think many of his fans will be staying on the Trump Train if their hero becomes a loser. His ego won’t be able to handle it.

But if only say it’ll happen if Biden remains substantially ahead of Trump post debates. If Trump can’t turn it around by then he’s finished and he knows it.


There is third and fourth option for Trump:

3) Rig the election.
4) Get rid of your opponent.
 
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ER757
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Re: Will Donald Trump get a second term?

Tue Jun 30, 2020 5:39 pm

LittleFokker wrote:
I am starting to see a lot of insinuations on Twitter that Trump may resign before the election. I don't see him as the resigning type, but he may also not want to get smoked by 400 EC votes, which the latest polls suggest is possible. Granted, nothing from official sources, and Twitter is what Twitter is. But I haven't heard resignation talk this serious beyond wishful thinking. Something to keep an eye on in the coming week.

I don't see him resigning - I think he believes strongly that he is invincible and his mind can't possibly grasp the thought that he could lose. He has proven time and again that his ego is out of control. He can just point back to 2016 when no one gave him a chance of winning and voila' on election night he took the prize. I think he'll lose this time around and then we'll hear months of whining about how the election was "rigged" and there was massive vote fraud etc. He will not go gracefully or quietly, that's certain
 
BN747
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Re: Will Donald Trump get a second term?

Tue Jun 30, 2020 8:36 pm

Will Donald Trump get a second term?

Image
https://memegenerator.net/img/instances/41136538.jpg

...when Jeebus speaks, well...you know.

Not by Ballot anyway. EC or not.

BN747
"Home of the Brave, made by the Slaves..Land of the Free, if you look like me.." T. Jefferson
 
NIKV69
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Re: Will Donald Trump get a second term?

Tue Jun 30, 2020 9:24 pm

BN747 wrote:
Will Donald Trump get a second term?

Image
https://memegenerator.net/img/instances/41136538.jpg

...when Jeebus speaks, well...you know.

Not by Ballot anyway. EC or not.

BN747


You guys are going to hand him the election again. Can't you get a candidate in there? I would have voted for Schultz why did you run him out?
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BN747
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Re: Will Donald Trump get a second term?

Tue Jun 30, 2020 10:06 pm

NIKV69 wrote:
BN747 wrote:
Will Donald Trump get a second term?

Image
https://memegenerator.net/img/instances/41136538.jpg

...when Jeebus speaks, well...you know.

Not by Ballot anyway. EC or not.

BN747


You guys are going to hand him the election again. Can't you get a candidate in there? I would have voted for Schultz why did you run him out?


I think Biden is gonna fail hit his head or miss a step and have an accident = brokered Convention, Cuomo gets the nod. But in this current national condition...anything is possible.

But it certainly will not go off as smoothly and calmly as things seem at the moment.

But one thing's for sure, very few people want four more years of...
Image
https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/d7 ... =800&h=446

...everyone, almost everyone is on to his schtick now. The MyPillow 'Nobody Loves Me' guy....grow the F88k already...


BN747
"Home of the Brave, made by the Slaves..Land of the Free, if you look like me.." T. Jefferson
 
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EstherLouise
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Re: Will Donald Trump get a second term?

Tue Jun 30, 2020 10:22 pm

I like how Biden ripped Trump a new asshole this afternoon.
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Newark727
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Re: Will Donald Trump get a second term?

Tue Jun 30, 2020 10:23 pm

EstherLouise wrote:
I like how Biden ripped Trump a new asshole this afternoon.


How so?
 
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Aesma
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Re: Will Donald Trump get a second term?

Tue Jun 30, 2020 10:50 pm

ER757 wrote:
LittleFokker wrote:
I am starting to see a lot of insinuations on Twitter that Trump may resign before the election. I don't see him as the resigning type, but he may also not want to get smoked by 400 EC votes, which the latest polls suggest is possible. Granted, nothing from official sources, and Twitter is what Twitter is. But I haven't heard resignation talk this serious beyond wishful thinking. Something to keep an eye on in the coming week.

I don't see him resigning - I think he believes strongly that he is invincible and his mind can't possibly grasp the thought that he could lose. He has proven time and again that his ego is out of control. He can just point back to 2016 when no one gave him a chance of winning and voila' on election night he took the prize. I think he'll lose this time around and then we'll hear months of whining about how the election was "rigged" and there was massive vote fraud etc. He will not go gracefully or quietly, that's certain


I wonder who will give him attention after his defeat ? Will he still be welcome on Fox to rant for hours ? Or are they going to go full on attack on Biden and try and forget about Trump ?
New Technology is the name we give to stuff that doesn't work yet. Douglas Adams
 
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Aesma
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Re: Will Donald Trump get a second term?

Tue Jun 30, 2020 10:52 pm

NIKV69 wrote:
BN747 wrote:
Will Donald Trump get a second term?

Image
https://memegenerator.net/img/instances/41136538.jpg

...when Jeebus speaks, well...you know.

Not by Ballot anyway. EC or not.

BN747


You guys are going to hand him the election again. Can't you get a candidate in there? I would have voted for Schultz why did you run him out?


Howard Schultz is a moderate Republican.
New Technology is the name we give to stuff that doesn't work yet. Douglas Adams
 
BN747
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Re: Will Donald Trump get a second term?

Wed Jul 01, 2020 1:00 am

Aesma wrote:
NIKV69 wrote:
BN747 wrote:
Will Donald Trump get a second term?

Image
https://memegenerator.net/img/instances/41136538.jpg

...when Jeebus speaks, well...you know.

Not by Ballot anyway. EC or not.

BN747


You guys are going to hand him the election again. Can't you get a candidate in there? I would have voted for Schultz why did you run him out?


Howard Schultz is a moderate Republican.


Yeah Starbucks dude...still trying to figure out where does he fit into all or any of this...

BN747
"Home of the Brave, made by the Slaves..Land of the Free, if you look like me.." T. Jefferson
 
Newark727
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Re: Will Donald Trump get a second term?

Wed Jul 01, 2020 1:10 am

BN747 wrote:
Yeah Starbucks dude...still trying to figure out where does he fit into all or any of this...

BN747


Just the process of rationalizing another Trump vote playing itself out. Whoever the Democrats came up with was never going to be good enough; were the situations reversed, and Schultz the presumed nominee, NIKV69 would be making exactly the same post, except saying he would have voted for Biden; why did you run him out? It's a tacit admission that voting for Trump can't really be justified on its own merits, so some punishable transgression by the Democrats has to be constructed to make him the "least bad option."
Last edited by Newark727 on Wed Jul 01, 2020 1:19 am, edited 1 time in total.
 
zakuivcustom
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Re: Will Donald Trump get a second term?

Wed Jul 01, 2020 1:18 am

Aesma wrote:
NIKV69 wrote:
BN747 wrote:
Will Donald Trump get a second term?

Image
https://memegenerator.net/img/instances/41136538.jpg

...when Jeebus speaks, well...you know.

Not by Ballot anyway. EC or not.

BN747


You guys are going to hand him the election again. Can't you get a candidate in there? I would have voted for Schultz why did you run him out?


Howard Schultz is a moderate Republican.


Which, in Trumpian definition, is a Democrat :duck:

If anything, Schultz political beliefs are fairly similar to mine - social liberal and economic moderate (Well, other than his China policy, that is). And from the way I vote, I would argue that he is definitely more of a Democrat than a Republican, but that's only bc the modern Republican party move so far to the right.
 
BN747
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Re: Will Donald Trump get a second term?

Wed Jul 01, 2020 1:21 am

Newark727 wrote:
BN747 wrote:
Yeah Starbucks dude...still trying to figure out where does he fit into all or any of this...

BN747


Just the process of rationalizing another Trump vote playing itself out. Whoever the Democrats came up with was never going to be good enough; were the situations reversed, and Schultz the presumed nominee, NIKV69 would be making exactly the same post, except saying he would have voted for Biden; why did you run him out? It's a tacit admission that voting for Trump can't really be justified on its own merits, so some punishable transgression by the Democrats has to be constructed to make him the "least bad option."


Ahh, thanks Harry.

BN747
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Kent350787
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Re: Will Donald Trump get a second term?

Wed Jul 01, 2020 1:45 am

Newark727 wrote:
EstherLouise wrote:
I like how Biden ripped Trump a new asshole this afternoon.


How so?


Sorta like this, from his speech at Alexis Dupont High:

"It seems like our wartime president surrendered, waved the white flag and left the battlefield."

"Month after month, as other leaders in other countries took the necessary steps to get the virus under control, Donald Trump failed us," Biden said. "Month after month, as many of us urged him to step up and do his job, he failed us."

Addressing Trump directly, he added: "The American people didn't make enormous sacrifices over the past four months so you could waste your time with late-night rantings and tweets. They didn't make these sacrifices so you could ignore the science and turn responsible steps like wearing a mask into a political statement."
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BN747
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Re: Will Donald Trump get a second term?

Wed Jul 01, 2020 2:18 am

Kent350787 wrote:
Newark727 wrote:
EstherLouise wrote:
I like how Biden ripped Trump a new asshole this afternoon.


How so?


Sorta like this, from his speech at Alexis Dupont High:

"It seems like our wartime president surrendered, waved the white flag and left the battlefield."

"Month after month, as other leaders in other countries took the necessary steps to get the virus under control, Donald Trump failed us," Biden said. "Month after month, as many of us urged him to step up and do his job, he failed us."

Addressing Trump directly, he added: "The American people didn't make enormous sacrifices over the past four months so you could waste your time with late-night rantings and tweets. They didn't make these sacrifices so you could ignore the science and turn responsible steps like wearing a mask into a political statement."


Ouch!...Uncle Joe can zing even while being sleepy.

BN747
"Home of the Brave, made by the Slaves..Land of the Free, if you look like me.." T. Jefferson
 
tommy1808
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Re: Will Donald Trump get a second term?

Wed Jul 01, 2020 6:25 am

BN747 wrote:
Kent350787 wrote:
Newark727 wrote:

How so?


Sorta like this, from his speech at Alexis Dupont High:

"It seems like our wartime president surrendered, waved the white flag and left the battlefield."

"Month after month, as other leaders in other countries took the necessary steps to get the virus under control, Donald Trump failed us," Biden said. "Month after month, as many of us urged him to step up and do his job, he failed us."

Addressing Trump directly, he added: "The American people didn't make enormous sacrifices over the past four months so you could waste your time with late-night rantings and tweets. They didn't make these sacrifices so you could ignore the science and turn responsible steps like wearing a mask into a political statement."


Ouch!...Uncle Joe can zing even while being sleepy.

BN747


It's an election between "grandfatherly slowness" vs. "Rapidly progressing alzheimers".

Best regards
Thomas
Well, there is prophecy in the bible after all: 2 Timothy 3:1-6
 
BN747
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Re: Will Donald Trump get a second term?

Wed Jul 01, 2020 8:02 am

tommy1808 wrote:
BN747 wrote:
Kent350787 wrote:

Sorta like this, from his speech at Alexis Dupont High:

"It seems like our wartime president surrendered, waved the white flag and left the battlefield."

"Month after month, as other leaders in other countries took the necessary steps to get the virus under control, Donald Trump failed us," Biden said. "Month after month, as many of us urged him to step up and do his job, he failed us."

Addressing Trump directly, he added: "The American people didn't make enormous sacrifices over the past four months so you could waste your time with late-night rantings and tweets. They didn't make these sacrifices so you could ignore the science and turn responsible steps like wearing a mask into a political statement."


Ouch!...Uncle Joe can zing even while being sleepy.

BN747



BN747

It's an election between "grandfatherly slowness" vs. "Rapidly progressing alzheimers".

Best regards
Thomas



Which one is the orange greedy seedy power-hungry insane one?


BN747
"Home of the Brave, made by the Slaves..Land of the Free, if you look like me.." T. Jefferson
 
tommy1808
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Re: Will Donald Trump get a second term?

Wed Jul 01, 2020 8:12 am

BN747 wrote:
tommy1808 wrote:
BN747 wrote:

Ouch!...Uncle Joe can zing even while being sleepy.

BN747



BN747

It's an election between "grandfatherly slowness" vs. "Rapidly progressing alzheimers".

Best regards
Thomas



Which one is the orange greedy seedy power-hungry insane one?


BN747


The Alzheimers guy..... which is glaringly obvious.

best regards
Thomas
Well, there is prophecy in the bible after all: 2 Timothy 3:1-6
 
BN747
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Re: Will Donald Trump get a second term?

Wed Jul 01, 2020 8:34 am

tommy1808 wrote:
BN747 wrote:
tommy1808 wrote:


BN747

It's an election between "grandfatherly slowness" vs. "Rapidly progressing alzheimers".

Best regards
Thomas



Which one is the orange greedy seedy power-hungry insane one?


BN747


BN747

The Alzheimers guy..... which is glaringly obvious.

best regards
Thomas


In this country labeling him 'that'...is a huge step compliment. My description is far closer to his antics.

BN747
"Home of the Brave, made by the Slaves..Land of the Free, if you look like me.." T. Jefferson
 
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lugie
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Re: Will Donald Trump get a second term?

Wed Jul 01, 2020 8:50 am

casinterest wrote:
Thom Tillis is pushing to label Russia as a State Sponsor of Terrorism.

https://twitter.com/SenThomTillis/statu ... 4167984132

Since Trump trusts Putin more than US intelligence, it is going to be a rough go for him and Trump this next 4 months.


This goes slightly OT since it relates to the Senate race but...

I hope he goes through with this push, as it would be a major step to helping Democrats regain a Senate majority.
If Tillis publicly denounces Trump, Trump will do as Trump does and withdraw his support in his trademark childish way (I can see the tweets: 'most overrated Senator', 'an embarrassment for the great people of NC', 'doesn't want to help make America great', 'never met him').
This may well cost Tillis a decisive couple thousand of votes from rabid Trump supporters while at the same time it sure as hell won't win him any new support from Democrats, as they'll stick with Cunningham.


More on topic again, that kind of points to a broader issue of how Trump's antics have completely weaponized dissent and discussion within the GOP and why his recent failings may doom the party in general this fall:

He has a voter base that is completely and utterly out of touch with reality, listening to his rants (and dogwhistles, which plays nicely with this metaphor) like he's a senile racist version of the piper of Hamelin.
Now, since he's also abjectly anti-intellectual, doesn't want to listen to advice and loathes dissent, his policy choices of the past years but especially the past ~3 months with Covid, racial unrest, his moves to cripple US presence in Germany out of pure spite (and a potential final push to blow up Obamacare) have wreaked havoc on American citizens and their life and health, the Economy, and the US' standing in the world.

All of those are things that are vastly unpopular outside of this rabid base.

Therefore, Republicans in contested races this fall might think that they should distance themselves from this utter sh*tshow of an administration, especially in light of the recent polling numbers that show him in virtual lock with Biden even in traditionally red states like GA and TX (plus the fact that as of today, AZ, MI, WI, OH, and FL look gone, like beyond the margin of error gone).

Yet, Trump is so omnipresent that one tweet of his directed at a Republican who might voice dissent would unleash a barrage of online hatred and attack ads at them; all but ensuring that the recipient of this rage sinks in standing with the rabid Trump base (because they're now part of 'the swamp' or 'deep state' or simply a 'RINO' or 'globalist').

While not necessarily all of them, it is likely that a considerable portion of those people will end up not voting for the disgraced Republican who dared question Mr. MAGA himself.
And again, those lost votes will likely not be picked up on the left, because we're still in an era of record polarization, so pretty much nobody who had been intending to vote blue will swing to a Republican just because said Republican grew a spine and stood up to Trump (once, as the ship was already sinking).



I believe that this trend may cost the GOP dearly in the fall, possibly precipitating a landslide loss that goes beyond a 370-400EV+ loss in the presidential election, but also losing the Senate and further losing grip on the House.

It's going to be interesting if the Republican establishment at large wakes up to that reality or if they'll have to learn the hard way.
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tommy1808
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Re: Will Donald Trump get a second term?

Wed Jul 01, 2020 8:57 am

BN747 wrote:
tommy1808 wrote:
BN747 wrote:


Which one is the orange greedy seedy power-hungry insane one?


BN747


BN747

The Alzheimers guy..... which is glaringly obvious.

best regards
Thomas


In this country labeling him 'that'...is a huge step compliment. My description is far closer to his antics.

BN747


i have the feeling "greedy seedy power-hungry insane" is a compliment among his voters.

best regards
Thomas
Well, there is prophecy in the bible after all: 2 Timothy 3:1-6
 
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casinterest
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Re: Will Donald Trump get a second term?

Wed Jul 01, 2020 1:36 pm

lugie wrote:
casinterest wrote:
Thom Tillis is pushing to label Russia as a State Sponsor of Terrorism.

https://twitter.com/SenThomTillis/statu ... 4167984132

Since Trump trusts Putin more than US intelligence, it is going to be a rough go for him and Trump this next 4 months.


This goes slightly OT since it relates to the Senate race but...

I hope he goes through with this push, as it would be a major step to helping Democrats regain a Senate majority.
If Tillis publicly denounces Trump, Trump will do as Trump does and withdraw his support in his trademark childish way (I can see the tweets: 'most overrated Senator', 'an embarrassment for the great people of NC', 'doesn't want to help make America great', 'never met him').
This may well cost Tillis a decisive couple thousand of votes from rabid Trump supporters while at the same time it sure as hell won't win him any new support from Democrats, as they'll stick with Cunningham.


More on topic again, that kind of points to a broader issue of how Trump's antics have completely weaponized dissent and discussion within the GOP and why his recent failings may doom the party in general this fall:

He has a voter base that is completely and utterly out of touch with reality, listening to his rants (and dogwhistles, which plays nicely with this metaphor) like he's a senile racist version of the piper of Hamelin.
Now, since he's also abjectly anti-intellectual, doesn't want to listen to advice and loathes dissent, his policy choices of the past years but especially the past ~3 months with Covid, racial unrest, his moves to cripple US presence in Germany out of pure spite (and a potential final push to blow up Obamacare) have wreaked havoc on American citizens and their life and health, the Economy, and the US' standing in the world.

All of those are things that are vastly unpopular outside of this rabid base.

Therefore, Republicans in contested races this fall might think that they should distance themselves from this utter sh*tshow of an administration, especially in light of the recent polling numbers that show him in virtual lock with Biden even in traditionally red states like GA and TX (plus the fact that as of today, AZ, MI, WI, OH, and FL look gone, like beyond the margin of error gone).

Yet, Trump is so omnipresent that one tweet of his directed at a Republican who might voice dissent would unleash a barrage of online hatred and attack ads at them; all but ensuring that the recipient of this rage sinks in standing with the rabid Trump base (because they're now part of 'the swamp' or 'deep state' or simply a 'RINO' or 'globalist').

While not necessarily all of them, it is likely that a considerable portion of those people will end up not voting for the disgraced Republican who dared question Mr. MAGA himself.
And again, those lost votes will likely not be picked up on the left, because we're still in an era of record polarization, so pretty much nobody who had been intending to vote blue will swing to a Republican just because said Republican grew a spine and stood up to Trump (once, as the ship was already sinking).



I believe that this trend may cost the GOP dearly in the fall, possibly precipitating a landslide loss that goes beyond a 370-400EV+ loss in the presidential election, but also losing the Senate and further losing grip on the House.

It's going to be interesting if the Republican establishment at large wakes up to that reality or if they'll have to learn the hard way.


Trump has done a phenomenal job of playing to his base, but he is also shrinking the base. Registration numbers for new Republicans have trailed Independents and Democrats. North Carolina is where the effects of this have played out. Remember, while Trump won in 2016, NC also elected a Democratic Governor as the state was frustrated with the incumbent. There are enough swing voters in NC to wreck Trump and Tillis. In fact this race will be interesting to watch in how far Tillis tries to run from Trump after locking his votes to him for the last 3.5 years. Cunningham will be an interesting foil. He is a Lawyer that has served as an Army Reservist for 17 years. Cunningham will be tying Tillis to Trump. Right now, even according to Fox News, Biden Leads Trump, but Tillis's approbal is slightly higher than his disapproval. The Senate Battle will affect Trump's standing in NC.
Where ever you go, there you are.
 
User avatar
lugie
Posts: 843
Joined: Mon Jun 03, 2013 4:11 pm

Re: Will Donald Trump get a second term?

Wed Jul 01, 2020 9:36 pm

casinterest wrote:
Trump has done a phenomenal job of playing to his base, but he is also shrinking the base. Registration numbers for new Republicans have trailed Independents and Democrats. North Carolina is where the effects of this have played out. Remember, while Trump won in 2016, NC also elected a Democratic Governor as the state was frustrated with the incumbent. There are enough swing voters in NC to wreck Trump and Tillis. In fact this race will be interesting to watch in how far Tillis tries to run from Trump after locking his votes to him for the last 3.5 years. Cunningham will be an interesting foil. He is a Lawyer that has served as an Army Reservist for 17 years. Cunningham will be tying Tillis to Trump. Right now, even according to Fox News, Biden Leads Trump, but Tillis's approbal is slightly higher than his disapproval. The Senate Battle will affect Trump's standing in NC.


I agree, I think it would be smartest for Cunningham to try and tie Tillis to Trump (and possibly also to Burr and his COVID-related insider trading allegations).

From what I heard during the Senate primary from young (college-aged) and very liberal North Carolinians, they never really seemed to mark Cunningham as a loathed establishment candidate (unlike what some of the same people had to say about Biden before Bernie dropped out). At the same time, his Army background is likely able to appeal to a wide audience, meaning that he might well be able to secure broad support among liberals and moderates alike.

Do you know what polling is looking like for the Governor's race? It seems that right now Cooper might be able to tap into the rising disapproval of Trump's handling of COVID, since he chose a more science-reliant approach.
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apodino
Posts: 3834
Joined: Mon Apr 04, 2005 2:11 am

Re: Will Donald Trump get a second term?

Wed Jul 01, 2020 10:14 pm

lugie wrote:
casinterest wrote:
Trump has done a phenomenal job of playing to his base, but he is also shrinking the base. Registration numbers for new Republicans have trailed Independents and Democrats. North Carolina is where the effects of this have played out. Remember, while Trump won in 2016, NC also elected a Democratic Governor as the state was frustrated with the incumbent. There are enough swing voters in NC to wreck Trump and Tillis. In fact this race will be interesting to watch in how far Tillis tries to run from Trump after locking his votes to him for the last 3.5 years. Cunningham will be an interesting foil. He is a Lawyer that has served as an Army Reservist for 17 years. Cunningham will be tying Tillis to Trump. Right now, even according to Fox News, Biden Leads Trump, but Tillis's approbal is slightly higher than his disapproval. The Senate Battle will affect Trump's standing in NC.


I agree, I think it would be smartest for Cunningham to try and tie Tillis to Trump (and possibly also to Burr and his COVID-related insider trading allegations).

From what I heard during the Senate primary from young (college-aged) and very liberal North Carolinians, they never really seemed to mark Cunningham as a loathed establishment candidate (unlike what some of the same people had to say about Biden before Bernie dropped out). At the same time, his Army background is likely able to appeal to a wide audience, meaning that he might well be able to secure broad support among liberals and moderates alike.

Do you know what polling is looking like for the Governor's race? It seems that right now Cooper might be able to tap into the rising disapproval of Trump's handling of COVID, since he chose a more science-reliant approach.

There is another thread where we are discussing the senate races.

https://www.airliners.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=11&t=1447367


That said, there are a couple of key supreme court cases that will have a big effect on Trump and the election that have not come out yet. One is the case involving Trump's tax returns. I am kind of expecting this to go against Trump, which would mean the court would order that he has to comply. I also expect that even when this order comes out, Trump will stonewall until the election.

The second case is the case surrounding faithless electors. This is the more interesting case to me. If the court rules that Faithless electors are not bound to vote for the candidate they are pledged to (Biden or Trump), then in essence what you have is people thinking they are voting for Trump or Biden, but they are actually picking electors who were selected by the campaigns but who then have no obligation at all to vote for either Biden or Trump. If somehow you get enough of these Never Trump republicans serving as Trump Electors, or maybe some bitter Sanders supporters as Biden electors, there is a chance you could see enough faithless electors vote for someone else and have a case where no one gets a majority. Then it goes to the House of Representatives, and this would actually give the Democrats a chance to replace Biden with someone else. Also, you could look at a situation where the Senate would choose the VP, and if the GOP holds the senate, there is a chance you could see a Biden-Pence administration.

Now I don't see any of that as likely, but if the court rules in that way in the faithless elector case, no one knows what is going to happen.
 
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casinterest
Posts: 11004
Joined: Sat Feb 12, 2005 5:30 am

Re: Will Donald Trump get a second term?

Sun Jul 05, 2020 6:34 pm

apodino wrote:
lugie wrote:
casinterest wrote:
Trump has done a phenomenal job of playing to his base, but he is also shrinking the base. Registration numbers for new Republicans have trailed Independents and Democrats. North Carolina is where the effects of this have played out. Remember, while Trump won in 2016, NC also elected a Democratic Governor as the state was frustrated with the incumbent. There are enough swing voters in NC to wreck Trump and Tillis. In fact this race will be interesting to watch in how far Tillis tries to run from Trump after locking his votes to him for the last 3.5 years. Cunningham will be an interesting foil. He is a Lawyer that has served as an Army Reservist for 17 years. Cunningham will be tying Tillis to Trump. Right now, even according to Fox News, Biden Leads Trump, but Tillis's approbal is slightly higher than his disapproval. The Senate Battle will affect Trump's standing in NC.


I agree, I think it would be smartest for Cunningham to try and tie Tillis to Trump (and possibly also to Burr and his COVID-related insider trading allegations).

From what I heard during the Senate primary from young (college-aged) and very liberal North Carolinians, they never really seemed to mark Cunningham as a loathed establishment candidate (unlike what some of the same people had to say about Biden before Bernie dropped out). At the same time, his Army background is likely able to appeal to a wide audience, meaning that he might well be able to secure broad support among liberals and moderates alike.

Do you know what polling is looking like for the Governor's race? It seems that right now Cooper might be able to tap into the rising disapproval of Trump's handling of COVID, since he chose a more science-reliant approach.

There is another thread where we are discussing the senate races.

https://www.airliners.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=11&t=1447367


That said, there are a couple of key supreme court cases that will have a big effect on Trump and the election that have not come out yet. One is the case involving Trump's tax returns. I am kind of expecting this to go against Trump, which would mean the court would order that he has to comply. I also expect that even when this order comes out, Trump will stonewall until the election.

The second case is the case surrounding faithless electors. This is the more interesting case to me. If the court rules that Faithless electors are not bound to vote for the candidate they are pledged to (Biden or Trump), then in essence what you have is people thinking they are voting for Trump or Biden, but they are actually picking electors who were selected by the campaigns but who then have no obligation at all to vote for either Biden or Trump. If somehow you get enough of these Never Trump republicans serving as Trump Electors, or maybe some bitter Sanders supporters as Biden electors, there is a chance you could see enough faithless electors vote for someone else and have a case where no one gets a majority. Then it goes to the House of Representatives, and this would actually give the Democrats a chance to replace Biden with someone else. Also, you could look at a situation where the Senate would choose the VP, and if the GOP holds the senate, there is a chance you could see a Biden-Pence administration.

Now I don't see any of that as likely, but if the court rules in that way in the faithless elector case, no one knows what is going to happen.


Faithless electors are not such a big issue. They usually are party loyal, and will be vetted more intensely in the future.

Trump is in trouble now as he continues on his race baiting and fear mongering. It will not help him in the fall, and will definitely not help the close Senate races .
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ltbewr
Posts: 15013
Joined: Thu Jan 29, 2004 1:24 pm

Re: Will Donald Trump get a second term?

Mon Jul 06, 2020 3:01 am

Property damage and destroying police stations in riots. Mobs tearing down statues of CSA leaders, Christopher Columbus and others. Calls to defund police. Burning US Flags, flying them upside down, kneeling during the National Anthem. Getting in the face of cops and cops afraid of a deadly confrontation forced to back off. Mass protesting allowed by Black groups, but White protesters against public health rules shut down. At the infamous Stone Mountain, GA, a state park, Black protesters showing up with guns, Those acts give Trump plenty of ammo to keep his almost all-White base alive, and something he needs to have any hope to get re-elected.
 
sierrakilo44
Posts: 290
Joined: Tue Dec 13, 2011 1:38 am

Re: Will Donald Trump get a second term?

Mon Jul 06, 2020 4:30 am

ltbewr wrote:
Property damage and destroying police stations in riots. Mobs tearing down statues of CSA leaders, Christopher Columbus and others. Calls to defund police. Burning US Flags, flying them upside down, kneeling during the National Anthem. Getting in the face of cops and cops afraid of a deadly confrontation forced to back off. Mass protesting allowed by Black groups, but White protesters against public health rules shut down. At the infamous Stone Mountain, GA, a state park, Black protesters showing up with guns, Those acts give Trump plenty of ammo to keep his almost all-White base alive, and something he needs to have any hope to get re-elected.


It is true there is economic depression and chaos happening in America, but that may cause voters to switch to stability. I think in 2016 what got Trump in the WH was a desire by Americans to throw a spanner in the works and go for an outsider to make genuine change to a corrupt political system. Now in an election year we have a pandemic, racial and crime chaos and economic woes. Biden, for all his faults, is seen as a stable influence. An old hand, even if he is a bit forgetful. When he was VP the country was running more smoothly and prosperously.

Getting in the face of cops and cops afraid of a deadly confrontation forced to back off


C'mon that must be only a tiny fraction of the cases of interaction between police and protesters. Most times it ends up with heavily armed cops brutalizing protesters. And getting angry in the face of a cop doesn't give the cops any reason or right to crack protester's skulls.
 
Newark727
Posts: 1809
Joined: Tue Dec 29, 2009 6:42 pm

Re: Will Donald Trump get a second term?

Mon Jul 06, 2020 5:44 am

ltbewr wrote:
Property damage and destroying police stations in riots. Mobs tearing down statues of CSA leaders, Christopher Columbus and others. Calls to defund police. Burning US Flags, flying them upside down, kneeling during the National Anthem. Getting in the face of cops and cops afraid of a deadly confrontation forced to back off. Mass protesting allowed by Black groups, but White protesters against public health rules shut down. At the infamous Stone Mountain, GA, a state park, Black protesters showing up with guns, Those acts give Trump plenty of ammo to keep his almost all-White base alive, and something he needs to have any hope to get re-elected.


Since when were the white protests against the public health measures shut down? They were all over the damn place. And last time I checked, the right to bear arms isn't supposed to depend on the color of your skin. If Trump's people, who happily carry guns to protests all the time when legally permitted, are now raising their hackles at black protesters doing the same - well that's very revealing, isn't it?
 
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Aesma
Posts: 12944
Joined: Sat Nov 14, 2009 6:14 am

Re: Will Donald Trump get a second term?

Mon Jul 06, 2020 9:14 am

ltbewr wrote:
Property damage and destroying police stations in riots. Mobs tearing down statues of CSA leaders, Christopher Columbus and others. Calls to defund police. Burning US Flags, flying them upside down, kneeling during the National Anthem. Getting in the face of cops and cops afraid of a deadly confrontation forced to back off. Mass protesting allowed by Black groups, but White protesters against public health rules shut down. At the infamous Stone Mountain, GA, a state park, Black protesters showing up with guns, Those acts give Trump plenty of ammo to keep his almost all-White base alive, and something he needs to have any hope to get re-elected.


A fanatical base is not enough.

For normal people, Trump is the cause of all this chaos, not the solution.
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