Moderators: richierich, ua900, PanAm_DC10, hOMSaR

 
apodino
Topic Author
Posts: 3837
Joined: Mon Apr 04, 2005 2:11 am

2020 US Senate Race Thread

Mon Jun 08, 2020 9:41 pm

All the focus is on the Presidential race, but 1/3 of the senate seats are up for grabs. I wanted to discuss this dynamic and how the senate might look come January.

A total of 35 seats are being contested. This includes two special elections in Arizona and Georgia. At the moment the balance in the senate is 53 Republicans 45 Democrats and 2 Independents who are part of the Democratic Caucus. 23 Republican Seats are up and 12 Democratic Seats are up. A closer look.

I would rate 11 Republican Seats as safe. This includes a Wyoming seat where Mike Enzi the incumbent is retiring, and Wyoming is one of the Reddest states on the map. Lamar Alexander is also retiring, but the Democrats don't have a big name so this seat is safe Republican as well. I would rate 9 Democratic seats as safe, but one of them is Massachusetts and I will add that to my analysis for a different reason.

So of the non-safe seats, plus MA here is state by state Analysis

Alabama - Doug Jones is a Democrat from one of the Reddest states in the country. Despite Jeff Sessions having served as Trump's AG, Trump has endorsed former Auburn Football Coach Tommy Tuberville for the seat. Jones is not disliked in Alabama but the right leaning nature of the state would favor whoever the GOP nominates, though if its Sessions I could see this being a bit closer race.

Arizona (Special) - Martha McSallay is in big trouble here, and Mark Kelly is poised to take advantage. As a former NASA Astronaut, Kelly has no baggage at all, and unless something dramatic happens this seat will flip.

Colorado - Cory Gardner is the GOP incumbent who is most vulnerable and is running against a popular former governor in John Hickenlooper. Gardner has adopted some populist positions in recent months in response the Coronavirus and has worked across the aisle to that effect. I don't know if that saves his job, but this one will be close regardless of what happens at the top of the ticket.

Georgia (Regular) - Incumbent GOP Sen. David Perdue is in hot water over an IPO that happened of a company he sat on the board of while CEO of Dollar General. Jon Ossoff is the likely Democrat in the race, but under jungle primary rules, this race could head to a runoff. If no runoff, Ossoff could take this seat.

Georgia (Special) - GOP Sen. Kelly Loeffler is mired in her own stock scandal, and may not even make it to a runoff election as a result. Doug Collins is a republican who is more likely to make such an election. The democrats don't have a good candidate in this race, so I think Collins will end up with this seat in the end.

Iowa - GOP Sen Joni Ernst may have a battle as the Democrats have a strong challenger in Theresa Greenfield. Name recognition may hurt Greenfield though. Ultimately this may be driven by the top of the ticket.

Kansas - This race will depend on who the GOP nominee is. If its Kris Kobach, this seat is in play and Barbara Bollier probably wins it. If the GOP nominee is Roger Marshall, this seat will stay red.

Kentucky - Mitch McConnell is deeply unpopular but this is a deep red state and its voters don't like giving a lot of power to the Democrats in Washington. However the democratic primary does have three strong candidates. Amy McGrath is favored by the DC establishment, Charles Booker is favored by the KY democratic Party and many progressives, and Mike Brohieir is another Progressive running. I actually see Booker as the biggest threat to McConnell here, but McGrath is well funded as well. This may be a sleeper race.

More in the next post
 
apodino
Topic Author
Posts: 3837
Joined: Mon Apr 04, 2005 2:11 am

Re: 2020 US Senate Race Thread

Mon Jun 08, 2020 10:08 pm

Continued from above.

Maine - Susan Collins is another vulnerable GOP Senator, but she has distanced herself from Trump recently and the Tara Reade situation took away the biggest weapon that Sara Gideon, the likely Democratic had against her. With Collins serving as a voice of reason, she may be able to save her seat. Gideon is also facing a primary challenge from the Left as well. Again, this is a race that could be driven by the top of the ticket.

Massachusetts - As I said this seat will stay Blue. The reason I mention this seat is because there is a very competitive Democratic primary between longtime progressive Senator Ed Markey, and Rep. Joe Kennedy. Ed Markey would hold onto his seat any other time without difficulty and Markey is well liked by the progressive base despite serving in DC for over 40 years and not actually owning property in MA. But because Joe Kennedy is a Kennedy, and the Kennedy name means everything in MA, the primary is competitive. This is actually a classic Establishment vs Progressive primary with Markey being the Progressive, and Kennedy representing the establishment.

Michigan - Dem Gary Peters is probably safe, but if Michigan does go for Trump again, John James could pull off an upset. He nearly ousted Debbie Stabenow a couple of years ago.

Montana - Republican Steve Daines was thought to be very safe, but the Democrats have nominated a very strong challenger in former Gov Steve Bullock. This race will be competitive, but I think Trumps presence at the top in this state will help Daines.

North Carolina - Republican Thom Tillis has become very vulnerable due to circumstances that in some cases are out of his control. Anger toward the other NC senator Richard Burr over the insider trading scandal is affecting Tillis, not to mention the state has been turning more purple in recent years, and the Trump decision to pull the convention out of Charlotte wont help either. Cal Cunningham is the Democratic Challenger here. I think this race will hinge on how well Biden turns out the Black vote. (Of interesting note, the two senators who held this seat before Tillis, Kay Hagan and Elizabeth Dole, were both ousted after only one term. The last person who held this seat for more than one term was the late Jesse Helms)

Texas - GOP John Cornyn is up for reelection and is being challenged by establishment Democrat MJ Hegar. Hegar was not the first choice of progressives, but as people from Blue states migrate to Texas for more friendly policies, Texas becomes more of a purple state. I don't think Cornyn loses this seat, as he is not as unpopular as Ted Cruz was (Beto nearly ousted Cruz two years ago), but the Democrats want to put this state in play at the Top, and I can tell you that Trump is not the most popular person here.


So after all that I see the senate results of this election as follows
Repubicans Win 19 Seats
Democrats win 16 Seats
That is a net gain of 4 Seats for the Democrats

Thus after the election the Senate Balance will be

49 Democrats
49 Repubicans
Two Independent

And unless Angus King decides to switch and Caucus with the Republicans, that would the Dems would take the Senate. Even if Angus King does switch (unlikely), if Biden were to win, then the Dems still win because the VP would break ties. (You would get some type of 50-50 power sharing agreement between Schumer and McConnell (assuming McConnell isn't ousted in which case it would probably be someone like John Thune) much like what happened during the Bush Administration.
 
User avatar
einsteinboricua
Posts: 8246
Joined: Thu Apr 15, 2010 4:11 pm

Re: 2020 US Senate Race Thread

Wed Jun 10, 2020 2:19 pm

apodino wrote:
Kentucky - Mitch McConnell is deeply unpopular but this is a deep red state and its voters don't like giving a lot of power to the Democrats in Washington. However the democratic primary does have three strong candidates. Amy McGrath is favored by the DC establishment, Charles Booker is favored by the KY democratic Party and many progressives, and Mike Brohieir is another Progressive running. I actually see Booker as the biggest threat to McConnell here, but McGrath is well funded as well. This may be a sleeper race.

A poll came out yesterday with McGrath ahead of McConnell by 1 point, and diving a little further into the details, apparently her lead expands significantly if she hammers the point about term limits (though the firm is unknown so I wouldn't put too much stock in it).

But as always, the progressive wing of the DNC is gonna mess this up, because they'd rather have an AOC Democrat running than a Manchin Democrat. But KY voters are not gonna be too keen to elect someone they'll associate with AOC and Sanders and will send McConnell back to a 7th term.

apodino wrote:
Montana - Republican Steve Daines was thought to be very safe, but the Democrats have nominated a very strong challenger in former Gov Steve Bullock. This race will be competitive, but I think Trumps presence at the top in this state will help Daines.
Don't be so sure. Remember that Bullock managed to win reelection the same year that Trump won MT. The only thing keeping this seat slightly red is MT's red lean at the federal level and not Trump's presence at the ballot. Otherwise, this seat is pure tossup or even lean D.

apodino wrote:
And unless Angus King decides to switch and Caucus with the Republicans, that would the Dems would take the Senate.

Given that Angus King has hinted plans to retire, he gains nothing by caucusing with Republicans. His logic in 2012 was sound though: ME would benefit from having a Senator caucusing in each party but if Gideon wins, that's two Senators caucusing with Democrats. I could see King maybe becoming a pure independent and becoming a swing vote.
"You haven't seen a tree until you've seen its shadow from the sky."
 
User avatar
einsteinboricua
Posts: 8246
Joined: Thu Apr 15, 2010 4:11 pm

Re: 2020 US Senate Race Thread

Wed Jun 10, 2020 2:30 pm

This is my view as things stand with current polling and state leans

Image

Seats flipped: AZ and CO (R to D, both Lean), AL (D to R, Likely).
Pure tossups: ME, NC, GA-S
Seats tilting: MT, IA, GA-Regular (all for R)
Seats to watch: KS (Likely R, GOP Primary), KY (Likely R, Dem primary), SC (Likely R, subsequent polling), MI (Lean D, subsequent polling)

Assuming the seat colors remain and tossups go towards Dems, that's a 51-49 split. But as the campaign gets underway, I'm willing to move the tilt seats to tossups and maybe some tossups to lean categories.

Bottom line remains: this map is bad for Republicans, especially with an unpopular incumbent leading the GOP ticket.

For the general election, the best case scenario Democrats can hope for is to take the Senate by a comfortable margin (2-4 seats) and keep the House, but lose the White House again. They keep Congress, and then the Senators elected in 2016 would be up for election in 2022 which means they would have to defend their record under Trump (giving Democrats the chance to expand their majority for the last time).
"You haven't seen a tree until you've seen its shadow from the sky."
 
apodino
Topic Author
Posts: 3837
Joined: Mon Apr 04, 2005 2:11 am

Re: 2020 US Senate Race Thread

Thu Jun 11, 2020 9:42 pm

einsteinboricua wrote:
This is my view as things stand with current polling and state leans

Image

Seats flipped: AZ and CO (R to D, both Lean), AL (D to R, Likely).
Pure tossups: ME, NC, GA-S
Seats tilting: MT, IA, GA-Regular (all for R)
Seats to watch: KS (Likely R, GOP Primary), KY (Likely R, Dem primary), SC (Likely R, subsequent polling), MI (Lean D, subsequent polling)

Assuming the seat colors remain and tossups go towards Dems, that's a 51-49 split. But as the campaign gets underway, I'm willing to move the tilt seats to tossups and maybe some tossups to lean categories.

Bottom line remains: this map is bad for Republicans, especially with an unpopular incumbent leading the GOP ticket.

For the general election, the best case scenario Democrats can hope for is to take the Senate by a comfortable margin (2-4 seats) and keep the House, but lose the White House again. They keep Congress, and then the Senators elected in 2016 would be up for election in 2022 which means they would have to defend their record under Trump (giving Democrats the chance to expand their majority for the last time).

I would actually rate the GA-Regular as a toss up and not tilting R. Jon Ossoff won the Democratic nomination and is a very strong challenger, and David Perdue is mired in stock trading scandals and has lost a lot of support in Georgia.

I am also tempted to put the GA-Special into the lean republican column for this reason. I think everyone knows that Kelly Loeffler is done. There is another republican in that race, Doug Collins, who has no baggage and is coalescing support behind him. The Democrats do not have a strong challenger in this race like they do in the other race with Ossoff. Also this is basically a jungle primary unless someone gets 50 percent of the vote. (Collins would be the only one I could possibly see). I think Collins will make the runoff election no problem. I don't see any democrat in the race right now that would beat Collins in a runoff election, and if Collins and Loeffler are the two that make the runoff election, the seat stays red. The only chance the Democrats have in this race is for Collins to somehow not make the runoff election, which I don't think is likely. If Collins doesn't make the runoff, this seat will flip. But like I said, I cant imagine Collins not making the runoff.

As for Kentucky. Amy McGrath to me seems like a very underwhelming and boring candidate, and Mitch McConnell is probably licking his chops to face her. She seems to be adopting the Joe Biden strategy as well. Additionally, she had a terrible debate performance in a recent Democratic Primary debate (basically she was caught by the moderator in a lie over why she wasn't out joining the protests, and also tried to portray herself in a pro-Trump light while attacking McConnell.) Charles Booker to me seems like a very strong and charismatic candidate who I think would be a more formidable challenger than Republicans would like to think. (Remember they just elected a Democratic Governor in Kentucky from the same mold) The only issue with Booker is, would people from Kentucky actually pull the lever for a progressive in a General election? That being said, he is the most genuine candidate in the race, while McGrath seems like one of these candidates just trying to say anything to get elected. That being said, you wonder if a Democratic nomination of Booker would be similar to the Nevada republicans nominating Sharon Angle to take out Harry Reid?
 
User avatar
einsteinboricua
Posts: 8246
Joined: Thu Apr 15, 2010 4:11 pm

Re: 2020 US Senate Race Thread

Fri Jun 12, 2020 2:54 am

apodino wrote:
As for Kentucky. Amy McGrath to me seems like a very underwhelming and boring candidate, and Mitch McConnell is probably licking his chops to face her. She seems to be adopting the Joe Biden strategy as well. Additionally, she had a terrible debate performance in a recent Democratic Primary debate (basically she was caught by the moderator in a lie over why she wasn't out joining the protests, and also tried to portray herself in a pro-Trump light while attacking McConnell.) Charles Booker to me seems like a very strong and charismatic candidate who I think would be a more formidable challenger than Republicans would like to think. (Remember they just elected a Democratic Governor in Kentucky from the same mold) The only issue with Booker is, would people from Kentucky actually pull the lever for a progressive in a General election? That being said, he is the most genuine candidate in the race, while McGrath seems like one of these candidates just trying to say anything to get elected. That being said, you wonder if a Democratic nomination of Booker would be similar to the Nevada republicans nominating Sharon Angle to take out Harry Reid?

I think KY Democrats, between Booker and McGrath would be hesitant to pull the trigger for Booker BECAUSE he's a progressive. Now granted, a lot of these Democrats end up voting for the Republican tickets in the fall, but I think a more centrist Democrat may give McConnell a run for his money. Don't forget: he's the least liked Senator anywhere. Even in his home state, his approval ratings are abysmal, but if Booker gets the nod, it's either McConnell or a progressive in the mold of AOC or Sanders...not exactly the ideal scenario for the DNC. McGrath at least has all the things that conservative voters in KY care about. They can't complain about military service: McGrath is a combat veteran (with more to show than McConnell who was medically separated at less than a month into service); she's keeping her distance from national Democrats: a sign that she plans to be her own person (whether she does or not remains to be seen), and given that McConnell has done diddly squat for KY, at the very least, she could be a welcome breath even if just for a term.
"You haven't seen a tree until you've seen its shadow from the sky."
 
User avatar
einsteinboricua
Posts: 8246
Joined: Thu Apr 15, 2010 4:11 pm

Re: 2020 US Senate Race Thread

Mon Jun 15, 2020 4:33 am

Recent polling suggests Iowa to be more competitive. I'll still keep it in Tilt-R, but based on polls released today about the state in general (president, congressional, senate preferences), I'd rather be Greenfield than Ernst at this point.

Another poll came out of AR showing Trump leading Biden by 2 but with approval ratings underwater as well as Cotton. Now, Democrats failed to nominate someone (a stunning reversal from 12 years ago when Mark Pryor faced no Republican opponents and cruised to reelection), but an Independent may be what Democrats need to make Cotton sweat. Apparently, AR voters are not too happy with their junior senator either, but given AR's red lean, the fact that it's a presidential election year, and that this is just one poll from Talk Business and Politics (a firm which kinda sorta nailed AR's final results in 2016), I wouldn't put too much stock on it. If subsequent polls come out showing how Cotton is faring against a Libertarian candidate and the Independent, I may revisit the Safe R rating. Cotton would still be the favorite, but he could be the Pat Roberts of 2020: close call election.
"You haven't seen a tree until you've seen its shadow from the sky."
 
apodino
Topic Author
Posts: 3837
Joined: Mon Apr 04, 2005 2:11 am

Re: 2020 US Senate Race Thread

Mon Jun 15, 2020 7:18 pm

einsteinboricua wrote:
Recent polling suggests Iowa to be more competitive. I'll still keep it in Tilt-R, but based on polls released today about the state in general (president, congressional, senate preferences), I'd rather be Greenfield than Ernst at this point.

Another poll came out of AR showing Trump leading Biden by 2 but with approval ratings underwater as well as Cotton. Now, Democrats failed to nominate someone (a stunning reversal from 12 years ago when Mark Pryor faced no Republican opponents and cruised to reelection), but an Independent may be what Democrats need to make Cotton sweat. Apparently, AR voters are not too happy with their junior senator either, but given AR's red lean, the fact that it's a presidential election year, and that this is just one poll from Talk Business and Politics (a firm which kinda sorta nailed AR's final results in 2016), I wouldn't put too much stock on it. If subsequent polls come out showing how Cotton is faring against a Libertarian candidate and the Independent, I may revisit the Safe R rating. Cotton would still be the favorite, but he could be the Pat Roberts of 2020: close call election.


Even if Cotton is ousted by the Libertarian candidate, I would see such a LIbertarian caucusing with the GOP so I don't think this helps the Democrats at all.

einsteinboricua wrote:
apodino wrote:
As for Kentucky. Amy McGrath to me seems like a very underwhelming and boring candidate, and Mitch McConnell is probably licking his chops to face her. She seems to be adopting the Joe Biden strategy as well. Additionally, she had a terrible debate performance in a recent Democratic Primary debate (basically she was caught by the moderator in a lie over why she wasn't out joining the protests, and also tried to portray herself in a pro-Trump light while attacking McConnell.) Charles Booker to me seems like a very strong and charismatic candidate who I think would be a more formidable challenger than Republicans would like to think. (Remember they just elected a Democratic Governor in Kentucky from the same mold) The only issue with Booker is, would people from Kentucky actually pull the lever for a progressive in a General election? That being said, he is the most genuine candidate in the race, while McGrath seems like one of these candidates just trying to say anything to get elected. That being said, you wonder if a Democratic nomination of Booker would be similar to the Nevada republicans nominating Sharon Angle to take out Harry Reid?

I think KY Democrats, between Booker and McGrath would be hesitant to pull the trigger for Booker BECAUSE he's a progressive. Now granted, a lot of these Democrats end up voting for the Republican tickets in the fall, but I think a more centrist Democrat may give McConnell a run for his money. Don't forget: he's the least liked Senator anywhere. Even in his home state, his approval ratings are abysmal, but if Booker gets the nod, it's either McConnell or a progressive in the mold of AOC or Sanders...not exactly the ideal scenario for the DNC. McGrath at least has all the things that conservative voters in KY care about. They can't complain about military service: McGrath is a combat veteran (with more to show than McConnell who was medically separated at less than a month into service); she's keeping her distance from national Democrats: a sign that she plans to be her own person (whether she does or not remains to be seen), and given that McConnell has done diddly squat for KY, at the very least, she could be a welcome breath even if just for a term.


Another issue that McGrath has to deal with in light of the Supreme Court ruling today is she has said on the record that she would have voted for Brett Kavanaugh. For the base that typically votes in Democratic primaries, this will not go over well. And Booker is starting to use this as a campaign issue as well. McGrath may not do bad against McConnell, but I don't think that the democratic primary voters want another Joe Manchin either. This reminds me a lot of the Delaware primary back in I believe 2014 (or 2010, cant remember the exact year). In that primary you had Michael Castle, a long time establishment Republican who had never lost a statewide election in Delaware. However, because he did not pass the ideological purity test of many GOP primary voters, (not to mention Sarah Palin getting involved in the race), he did not make it out of the Primary and lost to Palin endorsed Christine O'Donnell, who was just an awful candidate. This allowed little known Chris Coons, (the Democrats didn't put up a big name because of Castle), to win election easily. That being said, Booker is a much stronger and better candidate than O'Donnell was. Another thing to note is that most of the McGrath's support comes from the DC Beltway, while most of Booker's support actually comes from people in Kentucky. McGrath has a lot more money than Booker, but a Booker primary win would send a message to the DC Establishment.

Another race I am going to move is the Colorado race. I am moving this from Leans Dem to Toss up. The reason for this is John Hickenlooper is now mired in an Ethics controversy. An Ethics commission has ruled that Hickenlooper as Governor twice violated the state ban on accepting gifts. This will be hammered to death by Cory Gardner in the general election, and with Gardner actually taking steps in the Senate to at least appear like he is working for the people of Colorado, Gardner may pull this one off. Here is an article illustrating the Hickenlooper problem.

https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/502523-ethics-controversy-rattles-hickenloopers-senate-bid

And its not just Gardner who is using this. The primary hasn't happened yet, and former State Rep Andrew Romanoff is still in, and has hammered home the Hickenlooper issue. If Romanoff were to win the primary as a result of the Hickenlooper issues, who knows how this election will play out. I would have to see some polling on Romanoff if he wins the Primary.
 
User avatar
einsteinboricua
Posts: 8246
Joined: Thu Apr 15, 2010 4:11 pm

Re: 2020 US Senate Race Thread

Mon Jun 15, 2020 8:15 pm

apodino wrote:
Even if Cotton is ousted by the Libertarian candidate, I would see such a LIbertarian caucusing with the GOP so I don't think this helps the Democrats at all.

I don't think the Libertarian will get all the votes. Lacking a candidate, I think Democrats in AR will go with the independent one instead of the Libertarian.

apodino wrote:
Another issue that McGrath has to deal with in light of the Supreme Court ruling today is she has said on the record that she would have voted for Brett Kavanaugh. For the base that typically votes in Democratic primaries, this will not go over well.
It likely wouldn't play well in a more progressive state. KY, at the lack of big centers outside of Louisville and Cincinnati, is more conservative so having a Democrat that's more right of mainstream will go well in the state. KY Democrats (the new wing, not the ancestral ones) have two choices: vote for the progressive guy who aligns with the likes of Sanders and will likely lose the general election or vote for the centrist one who may give McConnell a run for his money. If Booker is the nominee, expect McConnell to highlight how he's a progressive and therefore support the New Green Deal which means putting coal miners out of work. The hotshot from a city won't be enough to earn votes from ancestral regions.

apodino wrote:
This reminds me a lot of the Delaware primary back in I believe 2014 (or 2010, cant remember the exact year). In that primary you had Michael Castle, a long time establishment Republican who had never lost a statewide election in Delaware. However, because he did not pass the ideological purity test of many GOP primary voters, (not to mention Sarah Palin getting involved in the race), he did not make it out of the Primary and lost to Palin endorsed Christine O'Donnell, who was just an awful candidate.

That was 2010.

apodino wrote:
Another race I am going to move is the Colorado race. I am moving this from Leans Dem to Toss up. The reason for this is John Hickenlooper is now mired in an Ethics controversy. An Ethics commission has ruled that Hickenlooper as Governor twice violated the state ban on accepting gifts. This will be hammered to death by Cory Gardner in the general election, and with Gardner actually taking steps in the Senate to at least appear like he is working for the people of Colorado, Gardner may pull this one off. Here is an article illustrating the Hickenlooper problem.

I'm still keeping it as lean D, though the ethics issue is what's preventing me from moving it to likely D. I think Gardner's election had two issues:
1. Discontent with Mark Udall (and it was clear during his reelection campaign that he did not know what he stood for), which allowed Gardner to eek out a win.
2. EXTREMELY low turnout year. CO had well over 53%, but in a state where presidential turnout is over 70%, that may have made a lot of difference.

You could also throw in the midterm effect of a second term president where people are ready to switch Congress to the opposite party, but given that CO remained in the Democratic column during te 2016 election, I'd say this doesn't really apply to the state.

IMO, I think Gardner will go the way of Mark Kirk (IL) and Dean Heller (NV): Republicans that caught a lucky break in what were good GOP years but ultimately are not in the mold of the state. Both tried their best to moderate their tones prior to their elections and voters sent them packing.
"You haven't seen a tree until you've seen its shadow from the sky."
 
luckyone
Posts: 2997
Joined: Thu Aug 21, 2008 1:50 pm

Re: 2020 US Senate Race Thread

Mon Jun 15, 2020 8:28 pm

apodino wrote:

Alabama - Doug Jones is a Democrat from one of the Reddest states in the country. Despite Jeff Sessions having served as Trump's AG, Trump has endorsed former Auburn Football Coach Tommy Tuberville for the seat. Jones is not disliked in Alabama but the right leaning nature of the state would favor whoever the GOP nominates, though if its Sessions I could see this being a bit closer race.

Only the most zealous of partisans from either political persuasion would argue without fear of successful contradiction that just about any Republican should have won the Senate election in 2017...except they put a crazy, potentially creepy, old loon on the Republican ticket in the form of Roy Moore. The result is proof that a few moderates can swing an election.
 
User avatar
einsteinboricua
Posts: 8246
Joined: Thu Apr 15, 2010 4:11 pm

Re: 2020 US Senate Race Thread

Mon Jun 15, 2020 8:46 pm

luckyone wrote:
The result is proof that a few moderates can swing an election.

I wouldn't say moderates as much as people staying home. Shelby and Session routinely won with about 1.3 million votes in the state. In 2014, Sessions ran unopposed but got only 795k votes or so (and that was a terrible turnout year). Total votes cast roughly exceed 2 million. That special election in 2017 had only 40% turnout, and Moore got less than half of what Sessions and Shelby would normally get in a regular year. Meanwhile, Jones got slightly less than what Democrats get in the same election. That to me says that a lot of Republicans stayed home AND Blacks that normally don't bother voting decided to go to the polls. Sure there may have been some crossover vote, but I think way more people decided to stay home than actually voted for Jones.

The case of the moderate vote can be made in Kansas, where Gov. Kelly definitely exceeded usual Democratic results in the state, and the fact that the state is more open to Democrat governors than Alabama currently is. KS and AL are simply two different kinds of conservative states.
"You haven't seen a tree until you've seen its shadow from the sky."
 
luckyone
Posts: 2997
Joined: Thu Aug 21, 2008 1:50 pm

Re: 2020 US Senate Race Thread

Mon Jun 15, 2020 9:07 pm

einsteinboricua wrote:
luckyone wrote:
The result is proof that a few moderates can swing an election.

I wouldn't say moderates as much as people staying home. Shelby and Session routinely won with about 1.3 million votes in the state. In 2014, Sessions ran unopposed but got only 795k votes or so (and that was a terrible turnout year). Total votes cast roughly exceed 2 million. That special election in 2017 had only 40% turnout, and Moore got less than half of what Sessions and Shelby would normally get in a regular year. Meanwhile, Jones got slightly less than what Democrats get in the same election. That to me says that a lot of Republicans stayed home AND Blacks that normally don't bother voting decided to go to the polls. Sure there may have been some crossover vote, but I think way more people decided to stay home than actually voted for Jones.

The case of the moderate vote can be made in Kansas, where Gov. Kelly definitely exceeded usual Democratic results in the state, and the fact that the state is more open to Democrat governors than Alabama currently is. KS and AL are simply two different kinds of conservative states.

Fair point and IMHO the height of childishness. This isn't a movie where you get to choose your movie and refreshments.
 
LittleFokker
Posts: 1241
Joined: Sat Sep 28, 2013 10:25 pm

Re: 2020 US Senate Race Thread

Mon Jun 15, 2020 9:14 pm

einsteinboricua wrote:
Even if Cotton is ousted by the Libertarian candidate, I would see such a LIbertarian caucusing with the GOP so I don't think this helps the Democrats at all.
I don't think the Libertarian will get all the votes. Lacking a candidate, I think Democrats in AR will go with the independent one instead of the Libertarian..


Here are the two people currently on the ballot against Cotton, Libertarian Ricky Dale Harrison, Jr, who appears to have a boilerplate Libertarian platform:

https://rdh4senate.com/platform/

And Dan Whitfield, who describes himself as an "Independent Liberal," whose platform seems pretty consistent with a red state Democrat (pro 2A but liberal on most other issues)

https://danwhitcongress.us/issues

According to Ballotpedia, Whitfield is embarrassingly behind Cotton in fundraising as of the end of March, and Harrison hasn't reported yet, though I haven't heard of a Libertarian candidate with a big stash to work with. This is why Cotton is not afraid to show off proudly to the world what a dirty useless traitor he is, because Arkansas is going to probably reelect him anyways. Haven't been able to find any polling on the three candidates yet, but even if Cotton is underwater in popularity, the cash advantage is going to make anyone denting his incumbency almost impossible.

https://ballotpedia.org/United_States_S ... nsas,_2020
"All human activities are doomed to failure." - Jean Paul Sartre
 
apodino
Topic Author
Posts: 3837
Joined: Mon Apr 04, 2005 2:11 am

Re: 2020 US Senate Race Thread

Tue Jun 16, 2020 5:27 pm

In Kentucky Booker has now been endorsed by Alison Grimes, who is from the McGrath wing of the Democratic Party. This is a big boost to Booker. Furthermore, McGrath has almost no support among any Democratic politicians in Kentucky, and all of her support and endorsements are coming from out of state. Also, McGrath is now being attacked for a Black Lives Matter ad she is running from the left, basically stating that there was no mention of George Floyd or Breanna Taylor or David McAtee. McGrath's campaign is imploding as Booker gains steam. If Mike Broihier, another progressive in the race gets out and throws his support behind Booker, that would really be bad news for McGrath.

I also believe that despite how red Kentucky is, Booker can beat Mitch McConnell. I think the supreme court ruling yesterday may actually hurt McConnell, as the judge who got confirmed that he held up Garland over was the one who wrote the ruling. It could be that the religious conservatives that are crucial to McConnell, may be disenfranchised and end up staying home in November.


Not a senate race, but a House race to keep an eye on is in New York, where long time Democratic Rep Eliot Engel is facing a major primary challenge from Progressive Jamaal Bowman. Jamaal Bowman is getting tons of progressive endorsements from Elizabeth Warren, Bernie Sanders, AOC etc. Hillary Clinton just endorsed Engel (Noteably her first endorsement this election cycle), and also an outside GOP tied PAC is pouring money into the race in support of Engel. Engel has made a series of Gaffes this recently, including not returning to the district during the COVID 19 epidemic and then being caught lying about it. Another notable gaffe is a hot mic moment where he said the only reason he cares is because he is being primaried. I think Engel is in real trouble here, and this is one of Pelosi's top lieutenants as well.
 
LittleFokker
Posts: 1241
Joined: Sat Sep 28, 2013 10:25 pm

Re: 2020 US Senate Race Thread

Tue Jun 16, 2020 8:09 pm

apodino wrote:
In Kentucky Booker has now been endorsed by Alison Grimes, who is from the McGrath wing of the Democratic Party. This is a big boost to Booker. Furthermore, McGrath has almost no support among any Democratic politicians in Kentucky, and all of her support and endorsements are coming from out of state. Also, McGrath is now being attacked for a Black Lives Matter ad she is running from the left, basically stating that there was no mention of George Floyd or Breanna Taylor or David McAtee. McGrath's campaign is imploding as Booker gains steam. If Mike Broihier, another progressive in the race gets out and throws his support behind Booker, that would really be bad news for McGrath.

I also believe that despite how red Kentucky is, Booker can beat Mitch McConnell. I think the supreme court ruling yesterday may actually hurt McConnell, as the judge who got confirmed that he held up Garland over was the one who wrote the ruling. It could be that the religious conservatives that are crucial to McConnell, may be disenfranchised and end up staying home in November.


This will be a very interesting race indeed. I'm all for whoever sends McConnell to the pasture, and as much as I dislike the idea of another Joe Manchin in the Senate, I don't know if a strong liberal can win Kentucky. Isn't Andy Breshear more from the McGrath side of the Democrat party?

apodino wrote:
Not a senate race, but a House race to keep an eye on is in New York, where long time Democratic Rep Eliot Engel is facing a major primary challenge from Progressive Jamaal Bowman. Jamaal Bowman is getting tons of progressive endorsements from Elizabeth Warren, Bernie Sanders, AOC etc. Hillary Clinton just endorsed Engel (Noteably her first endorsement this election cycle), and also an outside GOP tied PAC is pouring money into the race in support of Engel. Engel has made a series of Gaffes this recently, including not returning to the district during the COVID 19 epidemic and then being caught lying about it. Another notable gaffe is a hot mic moment where he said the only reason he cares is because he is being primaried. I think Engel is in real trouble here, and this is one of Pelosi's top lieutenants as well.


So that district is the Bronx where Yankee Stadium is. I looked at Engel's postions, and on domestic issues he seems to be very liberal (for gun control, pro choice, environmental protections, in favor of single payer health care) but conservative on foreign issues (in favor of Jerusalem being Israel's capital, against Obama's nuclear agreement with Iran). I wonder what platform Mr. Bowman is running on to distinguish himself from the incumbent, because in this current environment, I don't think foreign policy differences is going to be very consequential to voters.
"All human activities are doomed to failure." - Jean Paul Sartre
 
Dieuwer
Posts: 2326
Joined: Tue Dec 26, 2017 6:27 pm

Re: 2020 US Senate Race Thread

Tue Jun 16, 2020 8:21 pm

Collins - I thought she wanted to retire and not run again?
Markey vs. Kennedy - IMHO Kennedy is simply riding his family name while sitting around and doing nothing. I saw his latest ad and it was a joke. I think Markey will win.
McConnell - if he is so deeply unpopular, why does he get reelected over and over again?
 
Ken777
Posts: 10037
Joined: Thu Mar 11, 2004 5:39 am

Re: 2020 US Senate Race Thread

Wed Jun 17, 2020 1:38 am

This is going to be a really weird years to project winners in the election. First off, their is the Carona virus that can well pull the country down with a repeat of the shutdown we are slowly moving from. If things get worse close to the election it will be difficult for Trump to continue to ignore.

The next major problem is the economy in The Trump Recession, which started this past February. Trump simply is incapable of bringing bus out of his recession before the election,

Biggest problem for the Senate GOPs will be the appearance that they are in bed with Trump - unless they start attacking him.

Because of their three issues I can't even start to guess who is going to win - I just believe it is going to smell like a major landslide.
 
User avatar
WarRI1
Posts: 13847
Joined: Thu Sep 20, 2007 10:51 am

Re: 2020 US Senate Race Thread

Wed Jun 17, 2020 2:03 am

Biggest problem for the Senate GOPs will be the appearance that they are in bed with Trump - unless they start attacking him.

The biggest bunch of kiss asses in US history. In bed? Anybody with a brain can see the fear of the Buffoon rules these Morons. Deliberative body? A joke, long dead for three long years and running until November. Please Lord deliver us from this evil.
It is better to die on your feet, than live on your knees.
 
User avatar
einsteinboricua
Posts: 8246
Joined: Thu Apr 15, 2010 4:11 pm

Re: 2020 US Senate Race Thread

Wed Jun 17, 2020 1:43 pm

Dieuwer wrote:
Collins - I thought she wanted to retire and not run again?

You can hammer Collins by using her promise of not serving more than 2 terms in office. Everything else just compounds it.

Dieuwer wrote:
Markey vs. Kennedy - IMHO Kennedy is simply riding his family name while sitting around and doing nothing. I saw his latest ad and it was a joke. I think Markey will win.

Markey is throwing big punches against Kennedy and bringing out exactly that: that he's using his name as if he's entitled to serve in the Senate. We haven't seen polls from the area so the race will be interesting to watch. Why would Kennedy step out against Markey who has championed liberal policies in the House and Senate is beyond me.

Dieuwer wrote:
McConnell - if he is so deeply unpopular, why does he get reelected over and over again?

Because Kentuckians would rather send a Republican than elect a "liberal" Democrat. That's why I keep insisting that a Manchin Democrat from KY will give McConnell a run for his money rather than an AOC Democrat.

I refuse to believe that KY voters are very proud of their Senate delegation; I think it's more of a "I hate this guy but I refuse to send this other one in his place".
"You haven't seen a tree until you've seen its shadow from the sky."
 
apodino
Topic Author
Posts: 3837
Joined: Mon Apr 04, 2005 2:11 am

Re: 2020 US Senate Race Thread

Wed Jun 17, 2020 5:23 pm

LittleFokker wrote:
So that district is the Bronx where Yankee Stadium is. I looked at Engel's postions, and on domestic issues he seems to be very liberal (for gun control, pro choice, environmental protections, in favor of single payer health care) but conservative on foreign issues (in favor of Jerusalem being Israel's capital, against Obama's nuclear agreement with Iran). I wonder what platform Mr. Bowman is running on to distinguish himself from the incumbent, because in this current environment, I don't think foreign policy differences is going to be very consequential to voters.


Engel has a number of strikes against him, despite what his campaign website may say. First of all, Engel has very strong ties to the Defense industry (Military-Industrial Complex) and this is actually is something more often seen on the Republican side. Secondly, Engel is a white man in a district that is over 50 percent Black. Thirdly, Engel's voting record over the years has been a neoliberal one. Lastly, he doesn't spend much time in the district and spends most of his time in Maryland. (This is also a line used against Ed Markey in the MA senate race FWIW.)

Engel is down by double digits as well if you believe the polling. And as I said, a GOP aligned PAC has poured in money to protect Engel. And although the funding for this PAC is secretive, one DC journalist believes this PAC is being funded by GOP megadonor Sheldon Anderson.

This race has much bigger implications than just the Bronx. If Bowman wins and ousts Engel, combined with other races where progressives are beating Establishment type Democrats, it is actually going to put Democrats on notice that if they don't start standing by progressive values, they will be primaried. (Or in the case of Nancy Pelosi, challenged from the Left in the General Election) This will actually give Progressives more power in Congress if they choose to exercise it the way the Tea Party did. (So far, they have not) And because many of these Establishment Democrats are falling in NY, that actually may cause Chuck Schumer to sweat since his senate seat is up in two years. And rumor has it, AOC may challenge him in the Primary.


einsteinboricua wrote:
]McConnell - if he is so deeply unpopular, why does he get reelected over and over again?
Because Kentuckians would rather send a Republican than elect a "liberal" Democrat. That's why I keep insisting that a Manchin Democrat from KY will give McConnell a run for his money rather than an AOC Democrat.

I refuse to believe that KY voters are very proud of their Senate delegation; I think it's more of a "I hate this guy but I refuse to send this other one in his place".


The Supreme court this week with the LGBT ruling actually stole an Ace out of McConnell's hand, which is the Judges. One of the only reasons to keep McConnell in power (remember McConnell is the least popular senator in his home state of anyone currently serving in the Senate), is because he was getting conservative judges confirmed. Now that these judges may not be so conservative, the evangelical voters actually feel betrayed and may just stay home. McGrath polls well against McConnell, but McGrath is also a terrible, unispiring candidate who has been caught lying by the media. Not to mention there is no love for McGrath by progressives, and many of them feel that yes McGrath may get McConnell out, but if she is espousing the same policies, what have we really gained? Booker is surging, and I remind you that every Kentucky Politician who knows Booker has endorsed him, and McGrath has gotten absolutely no support from inside Kentucky. Not to mention voters do not like being told by DC insiders who to vote for or nominate. Its not just progressives who have endorsed Booker, but a lot of conservative Democrats as well (the Joe Manchin types if you will). Booker will actually excite people in Kentucky to pull the lever for him. McGrath is not going to inspire those people, and you cant just run on an I am not McConnell message.
 
Dieuwer
Posts: 2326
Joined: Tue Dec 26, 2017 6:27 pm

Re: 2020 US Senate Race Thread

Wed Jun 17, 2020 5:37 pm

Had to look up Joe Manchin as he was mentioned a couple of times in this thread. After quickly reading through his voting record, he seems like a flip-flopper to me. For example, first he votes for defunding Planned Parenthood, then he votes against defunding it. So, you basically never know what he will do. How is that helpful for voters...??
 
LittleFokker
Posts: 1241
Joined: Sat Sep 28, 2013 10:25 pm

Re: 2020 US Senate Race Thread

Wed Jun 17, 2020 8:52 pm

apodino wrote:
LittleFokker wrote:
So that district is the Bronx where Yankee Stadium is. I looked at Engel's postions, and on domestic issues he seems to be very liberal (for gun control, pro choice, environmental protections, in favor of single payer health care) but conservative on foreign issues (in favor of Jerusalem being Israel's capital, against Obama's nuclear agreement with Iran). I wonder what platform Mr. Bowman is running on to distinguish himself from the incumbent, because in this current environment, I don't think foreign policy differences is going to be very consequential to voters.


Engel has a number of strikes against him, despite what his campaign website may say. First of all, Engel has very strong ties to the Defense industry (Military-Industrial Complex) and this is actually is something more often seen on the Republican side. Secondly, Engel is a white man in a district that is over 50 percent Black. Thirdly, Engel's voting record over the years has been a neoliberal one. Lastly, he doesn't spend much time in the district and spends most of his time in Maryland. (This is also a line used against Ed Markey in the MA senate race FWIW.)

Engel is down by double digits as well if you believe the polling. And as I said, a GOP aligned PAC has poured in money to protect Engel. And although the funding for this PAC is secretive, one DC journalist believes this PAC is being funded by GOP megadonor Sheldon Anderson.

This race has much bigger implications than just the Bronx. If Bowman wins and ousts Engel, combined with other races where progressives are beating Establishment type Democrats, it is actually going to put Democrats on notice that if they don't start standing by progressive values, they will be primaried. (Or in the case of Nancy Pelosi, challenged from the Left in the General Election) This will actually give Progressives more power in Congress if they choose to exercise it the way the Tea Party did. (So far, they have not) And because many of these Establishment Democrats are falling in NY, that actually may cause Chuck Schumer to sweat since his senate seat is up in two years. And rumor has it, AOC may challenge him in the Primary.


An AOC vs Schumer primary would be fascinating. Though I wonder if Schumer would rather retire than get into a battle with AOC - I bet he is legitimately scared of her considering how far she's come starting with so little. I do agree Pelosi and Schumer should rescind their party's leadership. I have been disappointed that neither seems to recognize the urgency of modern society, just trying to carry on as if we were in normal times. I think they also fail to understand just how dirty the Republicans play and that ordinary rules to pass legislation are simply not sufficient. Time for new blood.

apodino wrote:
The Supreme court this week with the LGBT ruling actually stole an Ace out of McConnell's hand, which is the Judges. One of the only reasons to keep McConnell in power (remember McConnell is the least popular senator in his home state of anyone currently serving in the Senate), is because he was getting conservative judges confirmed. Now that these judges may not be so conservative, the evangelical voters actually feel betrayed and may just stay home. McGrath polls well against McConnell, but McGrath is also a terrible, unispiring candidate who has been caught lying by the media. Not to mention there is no love for McGrath by progressives, and many of them feel that yes McGrath may get McConnell out, but if she is espousing the same policies, what have we really gained? Booker is surging, and I remind you that every Kentucky Politician who knows Booker has endorsed him, and McGrath has gotten absolutely no support from inside Kentucky. Not to mention voters do not like being told by DC insiders who to vote for or nominate. Its not just progressives who have endorsed Booker, but a lot of conservative Democrats as well (the Joe Manchin types if you will). Booker will actually excite people in Kentucky to pull the lever for him. McGrath is not going to inspire those people, and you cant just run on an I am not McConnell message.


I didn't realize that Charles Booker was such a strong candidate. McGrath has been the one getting all the national attention as the opponent for McConnell. I looked at Booker's website, and everything looks fine, except he's only been a state representative since 2018. Is there much of a history of people doing one term at the state level and jumping right to the Senate? Although as I think about it, a state representative I voted for in 2018 launched a primary challenge to Dick Durbin after just a month in office. I don't think her campaign went anywhere, and I don't even recall seeing her name on the ballot when I voted in the Dem primary. Is there a video of Booker speaking to see if he has an electrifying personality? How much does the fact that Beshear is a moderate influence who should be the right opponent for McConnell?
"All human activities are doomed to failure." - Jean Paul Sartre
 
apodino
Topic Author
Posts: 3837
Joined: Mon Apr 04, 2005 2:11 am

Re: 2020 US Senate Race Thread

Thu Jun 18, 2020 4:49 pm

LittleFokker wrote:
I didn't realize that Charles Booker was such a strong candidate. McGrath has been the one getting all the national attention as the opponent for McConnell. I looked at Booker's website, and everything looks fine, except he's only been a state representative since 2018. Is there much of a history of people doing one term at the state level and jumping right to the Senate? Although as I think about it, a state representative I voted for in 2018 launched a primary challenge to Dick Durbin after just a month in office. I don't think her campaign went anywhere, and I don't even recall seeing her name on the ballot when I voted in the Dem primary. Is there a video of Booker speaking to see if he has an electrifying personality? How much does the fact that Beshear is a moderate influence who should be the right opponent for McConnell?


There is some new polling on this race that came out this morning. Booker is up by 8 points on McGrath in the Primary. Furthermore, it also shows in the General Election that McGrath loses to McConnell by 20 points, and Booker, while he would lose to McConnell, would actually run better against him, as he would lose by only 14 points, but he would get more votes than McGrath would. Even more disturbing for McGrath is McGrath now has higher unfavorable ratings than McConnell. McConnell polls at 43 Favorable and 48 Unfavorable, where McGrath only polls at 24 favorable and a whopping 59 percent unfavorable. McGrath's campaign is sinking fast, and Schumer was approached this morning and asked about it, but he dodged the question and walked away. Keep in mind, McGrath is loaded with campaign money and has poured a ton of it into advertising, even putting up ad buys on TV in Virginia and Tennessee to try to reach some real rural parts of KY. Someone even stated today that McGrath has spent more money on this primary, than Andy Beshear did on the Gubernatorial general election that he won. And many people who donated to McGrath just to try to oust McConnell are now furious at the DSCC for pitching McGrath without even giving any of the other candidates a shot. I have seen Booker speak, and he is very charismatic and energetic, and he actually acts like he cares about the people, where McGrath is carefully scripted, and is clearly trying to present a careful image to hide the fact that she only cares about her corporate donors. I have linked the entire poll below.

http://filesforprogress.org/datasets/2020/6/ky/Civiqs_DataforProgress_KY_banner_book_2020_06.pdf

Another Poll I saw today has Ossoff leading Perdue by 1 in the GA Senate Race. I really think this seat could flip given the issues Perdue has had over time on corporate Boards.
 
Dieuwer
Posts: 2326
Joined: Tue Dec 26, 2017 6:27 pm

Re: 2020 US Senate Race Thread

Thu Jun 18, 2020 5:36 pm

The D's in Kentucky simply should do the math and decide if this race is about ousting McConnell or is it about the biggest D ego.
 
User avatar
einsteinboricua
Posts: 8246
Joined: Thu Apr 15, 2010 4:11 pm

Re: 2020 US Senate Race Thread

Thu Jun 18, 2020 6:23 pm

Dieuwer wrote:
The D's in Kentucky simply should do the math and decide if this race is about ousting McConnell or is it about the biggest D ego.

The Ds in KY and WV are simply conservatives registered as Democrats because of tradition (aka ancestral Democrats). THis is more of a reason to make those primaries open since they give really misleading impressions. A Louisville/Cincinnati Democrat will likely never vote the same way as an Appalachian Democrat, yet they're both registered in the same party, electing candidates that the latter will not support in the general election.

This is also where we must bring out that some states are not necessarily aligned with a party as much as with a political spectrum. This is especially true with the South, Northeast, and Pacific Coast: the former was and has always been conservative; the NE and PC are liberal. That they've transitioned from supporting one party over another still doesn't take away that the regions are nestled within a side of the spectrum.
"You haven't seen a tree until you've seen its shadow from the sky."
 
ltbewr
Posts: 15019
Joined: Thu Jan 29, 2004 1:24 pm

Re: 2020 US Senate Race Thread

Thu Jun 18, 2020 7:32 pm

There is the old saying that 'all politics are local', that is voters in the district or state make the decision, not the national take. If R's bring in some 'bacon' with project that create jobs, keep military contracts in them, even go along with moderate help with those out of work, then they might keep their jobs or the seats continue with R's. For D's they might gain a few seats due to corruption of Republican candidates, the economy, the depths of Coved-19 hurt them as to their health.
 
apodino
Topic Author
Posts: 3837
Joined: Mon Apr 04, 2005 2:11 am

Re: 2020 US Senate Race Thread

Fri Jun 19, 2020 5:30 pm

einsteinboricua wrote:
Dieuwer wrote:
The D's in Kentucky simply should do the math and decide if this race is about ousting McConnell or is it about the biggest D ego.

The Ds in KY and WV are simply conservatives registered as Democrats because of tradition (aka ancestral Democrats). THis is more of a reason to make those primaries open since they give really misleading impressions. A Louisville/Cincinnati Democrat will likely never vote the same way as an Appalachian Democrat, yet they're both registered in the same party, electing candidates that the latter will not support in the general election.

This is also where we must bring out that some states are not necessarily aligned with a party as much as with a political spectrum. This is especially true with the South, Northeast, and Pacific Coast: the former was and has always been conservative; the NE and PC are liberal. That they've transitioned from supporting one party over another still doesn't take away that the regions are nestled within a side of the spectrum.

I don't know if you live in KY or not, but this is an easy thing to say when you don't live in the state. (Disclaimer: I don't live there) But what I am seeing is, McGrath has no support whatsoever from any Democrat inside the state, and almost every prominent Democrat in office in the state has endorsed Booker, and this includes progressives as well as the more conservative Democrats from the Wendell Ford wing of the party. I do know this though. No person who has a 56 percent disapproval rating (Which McGrath does) is going to take down an incumbent Senate Leader regardless of where their political views align. And now McGrath sensing trouble is out with a new tweet claiming she is outside the establishment and isn't relying on senators from DC to prop up her campaign. This isn't fooling anyone, because everyone knows all her money came from out of state, she was handpicked by Chuck Schumer, and her campaign website lists tons of endorsements from DC establishment senators. The way it stands right now, the only reason McGrath may pull this out in the Primary is because of Early Voting, and people sent in the ballot for McGrath before realizing that there were other options out there. Many voters have inquired how to change their mail in vote and are furious at Schumer. This race is a perfect example of the downside of Early Voting. And you mention Cincinnati and Louisville but leave out another population center and that is Lexington. Lexington is a college town, and the type of area that would support Booker over McGrath.

One other race heating up is the Colorado race. John Hickenlooper is imploding in a big way out there, and the other democrat in the race, Andrew Romanoff is surging. That being said, Hickenlooper still has a double digit lead, but the issues that Hickenlooper have run into are going to be liabilities in a General Election, especially against Cory Gardner who is the GOP incumbent. It has emerged that Hickenlooper raked in cash from an Oil Company after they had been determined to have caused a deadly explosion, and then Hickenlooper opposed tougher laws to deal with the situation. He is mired in corruption scandals, and he compared the job of a politician to that of a slave on a ship. If Hickenlooper is nominated, I will rate this race a toss up. If Romanoff is nominated, it leans Dem. Furthermore, the state government is taking heat from the left after a Democratic Governor signed a bill passed by a Democratic Legislature to keep giving tax breaks for the rich but also to cut education funding. Progressives are furious at this.

David Sirota has a good piece out this morning about how the DC Democratic establishment is trying to quash the progressive movement, and you are seeing this play out in these primaries, as well as the Congressional Black Caucus backing white candidates over Black ones in key congressional races.

https://sirota.substack.com/p/beltway-dems-are-trying-to-prevent
 
User avatar
einsteinboricua
Posts: 8246
Joined: Thu Apr 15, 2010 4:11 pm

Re: 2020 US Senate Race Thread

Fri Jun 19, 2020 5:55 pm

apodino wrote:
And you mention Cincinnati and Louisville but leave out another population center and that is Lexington. Lexington is a college town, and the type of area that would support Booker over McGrath.

I wouldn't count college towns, mostly because they don't have a permanent population to speak of. College towns usually skew to the liberal, progressive side of the spectrum, and if you have people from all over taking up residence there for 4 years for college and then leaving, then it's not really a true representation. It's still more liberal than the state, but significant portion of their residents are students who are rarely there for more than 1 presidential election cycle before the graduate and return home or go elsewhere to work. Cities vs rural towns are better examples to make create contrasts with.
"You haven't seen a tree until you've seen its shadow from the sky."
 
Dieuwer
Posts: 2326
Joined: Tue Dec 26, 2017 6:27 pm

Re: 2020 US Senate Race Thread

Fri Jun 19, 2020 11:50 pm

Reviewing a.net predictions, it seems that the majority expect the senate to be a close call, but perhaps slightly in favor of the Dems. The House to stay in Dems hands, and Biden to become POTUS? In short, a somewhat similar setup as the early Obama years?
 
apodino
Topic Author
Posts: 3837
Joined: Mon Apr 04, 2005 2:11 am

Re: 2020 US Senate Race Thread

Sat Jun 20, 2020 5:14 pm

Dieuwer wrote:
Reviewing a.net predictions, it seems that the majority expect the senate to be a close call, but perhaps slightly in favor of the Dems. The House to stay in Dems hands, and Biden to become POTUS? In short, a somewhat similar setup as the early Obama years?

It would seem that's the way we are heading, but even though Trump would be out of office this isn't exactly any time for progressives to celebrate. We will know more after the New York primaries this week, but NY is having a number of bitterly contested Democratic primaries, and it looks like Pelosi ally and long time Democratic Congressman Eliot Engel may get the boot. I am keeping a close on the NY house primaries to see which way the Democrats coming from NY will be when they get to congress. If those all go against the establishment, then Pelosi is going to have to walk a very fine line between appeasing to progressives, and her corporate donors. I do suspect the corporate donors will still get priority because Schumer will control the Senate (you don't have a lot of real progressives in the Senate other than Sanders, Warren, and Markey if he survives his own primary), and Biden has made it clear that he is going to govern in that manner as well. It could be that you see the Democrats in the very same situation that Republicans were in when Boehner and Ryan were Speaker and they had to deal with the Tea Party and the Freedom Caucus. Couple this with the Filibuster staying in (If its a tight Senate I don't see Schumer getting rid of this), and you could have a very interesting first 100 days for Biden.

The CO primary has gotten nasty. Hickenlooper is now mired in all sorts of Ethics Scandals and now his primary challenger, Andrew Romanoff has gone negative, launching an attack ad which was basically a parody of Hickenlooper's old campaign ad during his days as governor. Romanoff is getting hammered by the Democratic establishment over this. I don't think Romanoff is wrong to point this out though. Democrats I think are better nominating Romanoff, rather than keep Hickenlooper around where all his proven Ethics problems will be hammered relentlessly by Cory Gardner. Nominating Hickenlooper may actually keep this seat Red. Furthermore, the Democratic Establishment in CO has now passed a law to give tax breaks to the rich and cut funding for education. That is not a progressive position. That is something a Republican would do. And given that the Democrats control all branches of Government in Colorado, there is no excuse for this.
 
Dieuwer
Posts: 2326
Joined: Tue Dec 26, 2017 6:27 pm

Re: 2020 US Senate Race Thread

Sat Jun 20, 2020 5:26 pm

apodino wrote:
Dieuwer wrote:
Reviewing a.net predictions, it seems that the majority expect the senate to be a close call, but perhaps slightly in favor of the Dems. The House to stay in Dems hands, and Biden to become POTUS? In short, a somewhat similar setup as the early Obama years?

It would seem that's the way we are heading, but even though Trump would be out of office this isn't exactly any time for progressives to celebrate. We will know more after the New York primaries this week, but NY is having a number of bitterly contested Democratic primaries, and it looks like Pelosi ally and long time Democratic Congressman Eliot Engel may get the boot. I am keeping a close on the NY house primaries to see which way the Democrats coming from NY will be when they get to congress. If those all go against the establishment, then Pelosi is going to have to walk a very fine line between appeasing to progressives, and her corporate donors. I do suspect the corporate donors will still get priority because Schumer will control the Senate (you don't have a lot of real progressives in the Senate other than Sanders, Warren, and Markey if he survives his own primary), and Biden has made it clear that he is going to govern in that manner as well. It could be that you see the Democrats in the very same situation that Republicans were in when Boehner and Ryan were Speaker and they had to deal with the Tea Party and the Freedom Caucus. Couple this with the Filibuster staying in (If its a tight Senate I don't see Schumer getting rid of this), and you could have a very interesting first 100 days for Biden..


Pretty funny that the only "real progressives" seem to come from Massachusetts. :D
 
apodino
Topic Author
Posts: 3837
Joined: Mon Apr 04, 2005 2:11 am

Re: 2020 US Senate Race Thread

Sat Jun 20, 2020 9:25 pm

Dieuwer wrote:
Pretty funny that the only "real progressives" seem to come from Massachusetts. :D

Well if you talk to a lot of progressives, they don't consider Warren a real progressive anymore since she clearly panders to the elite when it suits her. Bernie isn't from MA, and I suppose you could add people like Jeff Merkley and Mazie Hirono to those progressive lists.


Scary reporting out of Kentucky. The troubling news in Kentucky is that for the Democratic primary, they are cutting the number of polling places from 3700 down to only 200. Furthermore, in the city of Louisville (also where most of the Black vote is in the state by chance), there is only one polling location for the entire city. This reeks of voter suppression, and because of the places that are affected, this would actually benefit McGrath. But if this leads to irregularities in voting, and the primary is close, look for lawsuits and recounts to take place in this area. This is a disaster waiting to happen, and Kentucky has learned nothing from what happened in Georgia a couple of weeks ago.

Here is the Washington Post article on this, which is behind a paywall.
https://t.co/Xn61pDqleN?amp=1
 
apodino
Topic Author
Posts: 3837
Joined: Mon Apr 04, 2005 2:11 am

Re: 2020 US Senate Race Thread

Mon Jun 22, 2020 11:02 pm

A funny thing seems to be happening in these democratic primaries that I notice consistently. In places like Colorado, and New York, where well known establishment figures are in tough primaries, the establishment candidates are not only being endorsed by establishment figures, but their opponents are being ripped by the establishment for the primary challenges in the first place, and are being subject to attack ads and smear campaigns. On the other hand, if the person facing a primary challenge is not an establishment figure (AOC, Rashida Talib, and to a lesser extent Ed Markey), you don't see a lot of energy being spent to defend those incumbents, and I would argue that the establishment is trying to push Kennedy over Markey in MA.

So why is it the establishment will defend some incumbents, but not others, and why will they mudsling against a progressive challenger, but they wont mudsling when the progressive is being challenged?
 
Dieuwer
Posts: 2326
Joined: Tue Dec 26, 2017 6:27 pm

Re: 2020 US Senate Race Thread

Mon Jun 22, 2020 11:10 pm

apodino wrote:
Scary reporting out of Kentucky. The troubling news in Kentucky is that for the Democratic primary, they are cutting the number of polling places from 3700 down to only 200. Furthermore, in the city of Louisville (also where most of the Black vote is in the state by chance), there is only one polling location for the entire city. This reeks of voter suppression, and because of the places that are affected, this would actually benefit McGrath.


I always shake my head when I hear about this. It is just another example how "immature" Democracy is in the USA.
In Holland, where I originally come from, you literally trip over the number of polling places. In fact, the government wants to make it as easy as possible for people to vote and has set up polling places in bus terminals, schools, nursing homes, trains stations, libraries, town halls, etc.
 
User avatar
stl07
Posts: 2288
Joined: Mon May 01, 2017 8:57 pm

Re: 2020 US Senate Race Thread

Tue Jun 23, 2020 2:46 am

Dieuwer wrote:
apodino wrote:
Scary reporting out of Kentucky. The troubling news in Kentucky is that for the Democratic primary, they are cutting the number of polling places from 3700 down to only 200. Furthermore, in the city of Louisville (also where most of the Black vote is in the state by chance), there is only one polling location for the entire city. This reeks of voter suppression, and because of the places that are affected, this would actually benefit McGrath.


I always shake my head when I hear about this. It is just another example how "immature" Democracy is in the USA.
In Holland, where I originally come from, you literally trip over the number of polling places. In fact, the government wants to make it as easy as possible for people to vote and has set up polling places in bus terminals, schools, nursing homes, trains stations, libraries, town halls, etc.

Wow, I can't imagine voting at a bus stop
Instead of typing in "mods", consider using the report function.
Love how every "travel blogger" says they will never fly AA/Ethihad again and then says it again and again on subsequent flights.
 
tommy1808
Posts: 12756
Joined: Thu Nov 21, 2013 3:24 pm

Re: 2020 US Senate Race Thread

Tue Jun 23, 2020 5:08 am

Dieuwer wrote:
apodino wrote:
Scary reporting out of Kentucky. The troubling news in Kentucky is that for the Democratic primary, they are cutting the number of polling places from 3700 down to only 200. Furthermore, in the city of Louisville (also where most of the Black vote is in the state by chance), there is only one polling location for the entire city. This reeks of voter suppression, and because of the places that are affected, this would actually benefit McGrath.


I always shake my head when I hear about this. It is just another example how "immature" Democracy is in the USA.
In Holland, where I originally come from, you literally trip over the number of polling places. In fact, the government wants to make it as easy as possible for people to vote and has set up polling places in bus terminals, schools, nursing homes, trains stations, libraries, town halls, etc.


:checkmark:

I barely ever had it far enough to vote to warrant a bike, let alone a car.

stl07 wrote:
Dieuwer wrote:
apodino wrote:
Scary reporting out of Kentucky. The troubling news in Kentucky is that for the Democratic primary, they are cutting the number of polling places from 3700 down to only 200. Furthermore, in the city of Louisville (also where most of the Black vote is in the state by chance), there is only one polling location for the entire city. This reeks of voter suppression, and because of the places that are affected, this would actually benefit McGrath.


I always shake my head when I hear about this. It is just another example how "immature" Democracy is in the USA.
In Holland, where I originally come from, you literally trip over the number of polling places. In fact, the government wants to make it as easy as possible for people to vote and has set up polling places in bus terminals, schools, nursing homes, trains stations, libraries, town halls, etc.

Wow, I can't imagine voting at a bus stop


Bus Terminal, not Bus stop.

best regards
Thomas
Well, there is prophecy in the bible after all: 2 Timothy 3:1-6
 
User avatar
stl07
Posts: 2288
Joined: Mon May 01, 2017 8:57 pm

Re: 2020 US Senate Race Thread

Tue Jun 23, 2020 5:30 am

tommy1808 wrote:
Dieuwer wrote:
apodino wrote:
Scary reporting out of Kentucky. The troubling news in Kentucky is that for the Democratic primary, they are cutting the number of polling places from 3700 down to only 200. Furthermore, in the city of Louisville (also where most of the Black vote is in the state by chance), there is only one polling location for the entire city. This reeks of voter suppression, and because of the places that are affected, this would actually benefit McGrath.


I always shake my head when I hear about this. It is just another example how "immature" Democracy is in the USA.
In Holland, where I originally come from, you literally trip over the number of polling places. In fact, the government wants to make it as easy as possible for people to vote and has set up polling places in bus terminals, schools, nursing homes, trains stations, libraries, town halls, etc.


:checkmark:

I barely ever had it far enough to vote to warrant a bike, let alone a car.

stl07 wrote:
Dieuwer wrote:

I always shake my head when I hear about this. It is just another example how "immature" Democracy is in the USA.
In Holland, where I originally come from, you literally trip over the number of polling places. In fact, the government wants to make it as easy as possible for people to vote and has set up polling places in bus terminals, schools, nursing homes, trains stations, libraries, town halls, etc.

Wow, I can't imagine voting at a bus stop


Bus Terminal, not Bus stop.

best regards
Thomas

Either which way, something unheard of for an American
Instead of typing in "mods", consider using the report function.
Love how every "travel blogger" says they will never fly AA/Ethihad again and then says it again and again on subsequent flights.
 
User avatar
seb146
Posts: 22179
Joined: Wed Dec 01, 1999 7:19 am

Re: 2020 US Senate Race Thread

Tue Jun 23, 2020 5:02 pm

Question about Kentucky:

Their primary is today (June 23) so are they a "top two" state or are they closed primary?
You bet I'm pumped!!! I just had a green tea!!!
 
User avatar
einsteinboricua
Posts: 8246
Joined: Thu Apr 15, 2010 4:11 pm

Re: 2020 US Senate Race Thread

Tue Jun 23, 2020 5:48 pm

seb146 wrote:
Question about Kentucky:

Their primary is today (June 23) so are they a "top two" state or are they closed primary?

KY is a closed primary: only affiliated voters can vote in the primary of the party.

The only top-two primary states are WA and CA (LA has a jungle primary, but it's on election day proper and if someone ends up with 50%, they win outright so it's not a true top-two). If by "top-two" you mean the top two go to a runoff, no. It seems KY is a FPTP state and whoever gets most votes wins, regardless of what percentage they got.
"You haven't seen a tree until you've seen its shadow from the sky."
 
apodino
Topic Author
Posts: 3837
Joined: Mon Apr 04, 2005 2:11 am

Re: 2020 US Senate Race Thread

Fri Jun 26, 2020 7:24 pm

Booker may pull this one out in Kentucky. Many ballots are still to be counted, but people who know Kentucky better than I do say if the mail in ballot in Louisville is even remotely close to what the in person vote was, McGrath is toast. The question is when were the mail in ballots cast? If earlier, that favors McGrath, if later Booker.

Colorado is Tuesday and Hickenlooper is sinking fast, to the benefit of Andrew Romanoff. As I have said, Hickenlooper has baggage that would hurt him in a General.

Beyond that, with Trump trailing in lots of states now, both Georgia seats could flip, Iowa is in trouble, Arizona is lost, and Hegar could pull the upset over Cornyn in Texas. The senate is not looking good for the GOP.
 
User avatar
einsteinboricua
Posts: 8246
Joined: Thu Apr 15, 2010 4:11 pm

Re: 2020 US Senate Race Thread

Fri Jun 26, 2020 7:37 pm

apodino wrote:
Beyond that, with Trump trailing in lots of states now, both Georgia seats could flip, Iowa is in trouble, Arizona is lost, and Hegar could pull the upset over Cornyn in Texas. The senate is not looking good for the GOP.

Agree with all, except TX. Even in an awful year, Cornyn will return to the Senate. HE himself would have to massively screw up to be in danger. He's not Ted Cruz. He's more well liked than him. That being said, his opposition to Obamacare, stimulus payments, and other social safety nets, coupled with his support of tax cuts and Trump, just may put him at risk. If anything, I expect him to get between 55-60% of the vote.

Texans may be voting against Trump, but I think down at the state level they wouldn't be willing to part of their conservative roots, especially if Biden is assured a win. It explains why in 2016 Democrats failed to capture the Senate; it was widely considered that Clinton would have won so states like FL, WI, and PA voted to retain their GOP Senators as a "check" (funnily enough, the "check" failed to work with Trump). TX may be the state that splits its vote, electing Biden to the presidency but returning Cornyn to the Senate. No other potential swing state will likely do that (IA, NC, and AZ are the other swing states with a Senate election too, but I see IA voting for Trump and Ernst, or Trump and Greenfield, and AZ and NC voting for Biden and Cunningham or Trump and the GOP incumbent).

GA has the potential to be the opposite of TX: sending a Democrat to one of its seats in the Senate, but voting for Trump, and CO and VA are so blue, that I don't see either sending a Republican to the Senate (even with Romanoff, I think Gardner is toast).
"You haven't seen a tree until you've seen its shadow from the sky."
 
apodino
Topic Author
Posts: 3837
Joined: Mon Apr 04, 2005 2:11 am

Re: 2020 US Senate Race Thread

Tue Jun 30, 2020 4:55 pm

einsteinboricua wrote:
apodino wrote:
Beyond that, with Trump trailing in lots of states now, both Georgia seats could flip, Iowa is in trouble, Arizona is lost, and Hegar could pull the upset over Cornyn in Texas. The senate is not looking good for the GOP.

Agree with all, except TX. Even in an awful year, Cornyn will return to the Senate. HE himself would have to massively screw up to be in danger. He's not Ted Cruz. He's more well liked than him. That being said, his opposition to Obamacare, stimulus payments, and other social safety nets, coupled with his support of tax cuts and Trump, just may put him at risk. If anything, I expect him to get between 55-60% of the vote.

Texans may be voting against Trump, but I think down at the state level they wouldn't be willing to part of their conservative roots, especially if Biden is assured a win. It explains why in 2016 Democrats failed to capture the Senate; it was widely considered that Clinton would have won so states like FL, WI, and PA voted to retain their GOP Senators as a "check" (funnily enough, the "check" failed to work with Trump). TX may be the state that splits its vote, electing Biden to the presidency but returning Cornyn to the Senate. No other potential swing state will likely do that (IA, NC, and AZ are the other swing states with a Senate election too, but I see IA voting for Trump and Ernst, or Trump and Greenfield, and AZ and NC voting for Biden and Cunningham or Trump and the GOP incumbent).

GA has the potential to be the opposite of TX: sending a Democrat to one of its seats in the Senate, but voting for Trump, and CO and VA are so blue, that I don't see either sending a Republican to the Senate (even with Romanoff, I think Gardner is toast).

One issue is that population centers in TX are getting more and more people migrating from places like New York and San Francisco. That coupled with anti GOP sentiment may keep the Texas race competitive. MJ Hagar does not appear to be a very charismatic candidate, and I do think Cornyn will prevail, even though he has his detractors in Texas as well. If Beto O'Rourke ran for this seat instead of President, I think he could have won it.

In KY, it looks like the early votes that were cast did give Amy McGrath the nomination. This is a textbook case of why I hate early voting, and if people had been patient and not rushed to vote, I think Booker would have pulled it out, not to mention the fact that another progressive in the race took just enough votes from Booker to give it to McGrath. Because of this race, KY for me is now safe Republican. McGrath has a higher disapproval rating in Kentucky than Mitch McConnell, and it is not a secret that Schumer's reasoning for the DSCC backing McGrath is not to beat McConnell, but to force him to spend money in Kentucky that the GOP can spend elsewhere. I think this is a flawed strategy, and I predict that McConnell wins reelection in a landslide and this race will be so not close that McConnell wont have to pour as much money into KY as Schumer would like. If Booker had won the nomination, I would have this race as Lean Republican.

The CO primary is today. Andrew Romanoff is running on the Left as a progressive alternative to John Hickenlooper. Most of the non-establishment progressives are backing Romanoff, including Bernie speechwriter David Sirota, and guys like Cenk Unger and Kyle Kulinski. Sanders has not endorsed in this race and Warren has endorsed Hickenlooper. My guess is Hickenlooper wins the nomination, but his ethics problems are still around, and in a year when Cory Gardner should be ousted easily, because of the ethics problems surrounding Hickenlooper, this race will be a toss up.


So here are some key races that I will rank now.

Toss Up

Colorado
Both Georgia Races
North Carolina
Iowa
Maine
Montana

Lean Democrat

Arizona
Michigan

Lean Republican

Alabama
Texas
Kansas

Safe Republican

Kentucky
 
User avatar
einsteinboricua
Posts: 8246
Joined: Thu Apr 15, 2010 4:11 pm

Re: 2020 US Senate Race Thread

Tue Jun 30, 2020 5:05 pm

apodino wrote:
The CO primary is today. Andrew Romanoff is running on the Left as a progressive alternative to John Hickenlooper. Most of the non-establishment progressives are backing Romanoff, including Bernie speechwriter David Sirota, and guys like Cenk Unger and Kyle Kulinski. Sanders has not endorsed in this race and Warren has endorsed Hickenlooper. My guess is Hickenlooper wins the nomination, but his ethics problems are still around, and in a year when Cory Gardner should be ousted easily, because of the ethics problems surrounding Hickenlooper, this race will be a toss up.

Reading into the story, it seems voters are OK with Hickenlooper and see him as an ethical man who just messed up. You're definitely very bearish with the race. I'd be willing to downgrade from a potential Likely to a Lean, but I have not yet seen anything that would lead me to think this race is back in tossup territory. Hickenlooper is no longer guaranteed to cruise to a win, but I'd rather be him than Gardner right now.

As for the Senate races, Ossoff is definitely gaining more recognition and traction in the regular election than Warnock is in the special election. Now, if Lieberman drops out, then maybe Warnock has a chance. The latest poll has both R candidates ahead, and given that it's a top two election, this does not bode well for him. In fact, I've heard more about Collins and Loeffler than I have about Warnock. So I would think the regular race is tossup and the special election is Lean R.
Last edited by einsteinboricua on Tue Jun 30, 2020 5:10 pm, edited 1 time in total.
"You haven't seen a tree until you've seen its shadow from the sky."
 
Dieuwer
Posts: 2326
Joined: Tue Dec 26, 2017 6:27 pm

Re: 2020 US Senate Race Thread

Tue Jun 30, 2020 5:07 pm

einsteinboricua wrote:
apodino wrote:
The CO primary is today. Andrew Romanoff is running on the Left as a progressive alternative to John Hickenlooper. Most of the non-establishment progressives are backing Romanoff, including Bernie speechwriter David Sirota, and guys like Cenk Unger and Kyle Kulinski. Sanders has not endorsed in this race and Warren has endorsed Hickenlooper. My guess is Hickenlooper wins the nomination, but his ethics problems are still around, and in a year when Cory Gardner should be ousted easily, because of the ethics problems surrounding Hickenlooper, this race will be a toss up.

Reading into the story, it seems voters are OK with Hickenlooper and see him as an ethical man who just messed up. You're definitely very bearish with the race. I'd be willing to downgrade from a potential Likely to a Lean, but I have not yet seen anything that would lead me to think this race is back in tossup territory. Hickenlooper is no longer guaranteed to cruise to a win, but I'd rather be him than Gardner right now.


That's a pretty sad race: "Vote for Hickenlooper because he is a slightly less corrupt crook than Gardner."?
Since when should people vote for the least worst candidate?? What happened to voting for the best candidate??

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: alberchico, casinterest, FGITD, lentokone, ltbewr and 41 guests

Popular Searches On Airliners.net

Top Photos of Last:   24 Hours  •  48 Hours  •  7 Days  •  30 Days  •  180 Days  •  365 Days  •  All Time

Military Aircraft Every type from fighters to helicopters from air forces around the globe

Classic Airliners Props and jets from the good old days

Flight Decks Views from inside the cockpit

Aircraft Cabins Passenger cabin shots showing seat arrangements as well as cargo aircraft interior

Cargo Aircraft Pictures of great freighter aircraft

Government Aircraft Aircraft flying government officials

Helicopters Our large helicopter section. Both military and civil versions

Blimps / Airships Everything from the Goodyear blimp to the Zeppelin

Night Photos Beautiful shots taken while the sun is below the horizon

Accidents Accident, incident and crash related photos

Air to Air Photos taken by airborne photographers of airborne aircraft

Special Paint Schemes Aircraft painted in beautiful and original liveries

Airport Overviews Airport overviews from the air or ground

Tails and Winglets Tail and Winglet closeups with beautiful airline logos