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MileHFL400
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Covid 19 vaccine and return to normality?

Fri Jun 19, 2020 3:35 pm

So at the back of my mind, and even more so now since I got tested positive for covid I’ve been wondering when normality will return to the world. The common answer seems to be that will be when a vaccine is found?

I hear that we may see one approved by October?

When will we see a return to normality? End of this year? Begin of next year?
Thanks and best Regards
AA
 
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einsteinboricua
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Re: Covid 19 vaccine and return to normality?

Fri Jun 19, 2020 4:14 pm

We don't know. The COVID vaccine may be successful...or it may be like the HIV vaccine and prove elusive. I'm slowly accepting the new normal and hoping that if I test positive to COVID, I have a mild case (or remain symptom free) and acquire some form of immunity that prevents another strain from giving me a heavy blow.

One thing is certain: at some point, governments will have to relent on stay at home orders. This was helpful for the first few months, but I think if places are equipped and prepared with the supplies they need, normal life can resume. Restaurants can still limit customers dining in (or continue carry out/delivery). Travel can resume with adequate protocols. Even the most diehard supporter of the measures will have to accept that it's impossible to restrict people for months on end.
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fr8mech
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Re: Covid 19 vaccine and return to normality?

Fri Jun 19, 2020 6:27 pm

I have a couple of concerns about a vaccine.

The first concerns bringing the vaccine to market. Are we moving too quickly, potentially introducing a “dangerous” vaccine into the equation? What safeguards are we setting aside? And, if they can be set aside in this case, why are they there in the first place? Is it a simple social economic question balancing the potential deaths from COVID-19 against the potential deaths of a vaccine that hasn’t been rigorously tested?

Second, will there be a strain of COVID-19 next “season” sufficiently different from this strain as to render a vaccine ineffective?

The whole idea of flattening the curve has not been to eliminate the virus. The precautions we’ve been taking to flatten the curve serve to prolong the time this pandemic affects us, while at the same time trying to keep the number of folks requiring critical medical care from overwhelming the healthcare system.

It is silly to think there wouldn’t be a 2nd or even 3rd and 4th wave as we open up. I suggest, that barring a quick, effective vaccine, those waves are absolutely necessary to beating this thing.
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casinterest
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Re: Covid 19 vaccine and return to normality?

Fri Jun 19, 2020 7:03 pm

I am worried about whether a vaccine will be effective enough. Even the flu vaccine leaves some folks susceptible.

The common cold mutates so fast we never get a vaccine for it, and maybe it doesn't matter as it is rarely deadly.
If Covid is in between these two, we could be in for years of issues.

I think the biggest issue though is getting through this initial wave. We are social distancing for the hospitals because they will not handle the influx of folks that are susceptible to the disease.
In 5-6 months, we may be at a point where we have a vaccine or so many folks have passed on that we go into an immune phase.


I figure once we get to 60-70% having the antibodies, we will have the herd immunity, and it will slow the spread greatly whether we get a vaccine or not.
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Tugger
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Re: Covid 19 vaccine and return to normality?

Fri Jun 19, 2020 7:08 pm

fr8mech wrote:
[...]
The first concerns bringing the vaccine to market. Are we moving too quickly, potentially introducing a “dangerous” vaccine into the equation? What safeguards are we setting aside? And, if they can be set aside in this case, why are they there in the first place? Is it a simple social economic question balancing the potential deaths from COVID-19 against the potential deaths of a vaccine that hasn’t been rigorously tested?
[...]

This interview with Dr. Fauci actually covered that fairly well:
https://www.cnn.com/2020/06/18/politics ... index.html
Fauci credited the Chinese for publishing the sequence on the open database on January 10, and the next day, the US said, "We got to jump on this." On January 15, the US began the development of a vaccine candidate, Fauci said.
"Sixty-two days later, we had a product that we put into clinical trial, in a Phase I to see if it's safe and does it induce an immune response. That is overwhelmingly the quickest that has ever been done," Fauci said.
Fauci said there are a number of steps to develop a vaccine, but the reason they were able to do it so quickly is "that we proceeded what's called 'at-risk'" for finances.

"What happens is that in the standard way of developing a vaccine, you don't jump to invest in the next step until you're pretty sure that the step you're in is working," Fauci said. "Given the fact that we needed to do this as quickly as possible without sacrificing safety or scientific integrity, the federal government partnered with multiple of these companies and said, 'Guess what, we're going to move fast and we're going to assume we're going to be successful. And if we are, we've saved several months. And if we're not, the only thing we've lost is money. But better lose money than lose lives by delaying the vaccine.' So, right now, the initial data from the study showed that. It makes me cautiously optimistic that we can induce a response that would be protective."


Hope that helps answer some of your questions.

Tugg
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kalvado
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Re: Covid 19 vaccine and return to normality?

Fri Jun 19, 2020 8:43 pm

There are more than 100 groups working on vaccines right now. Of course, 9 women cannot get a baby in 1 month - but there are some new approaches being looked at.
Flu vaccine is a very bad comparison as it is just another example of bad science being force fed to public. Covid research operates on a much more solid basis.
 
MileHFL400
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Re: Covid 19 vaccine and return to normality?

Fri Jun 19, 2020 8:50 pm

kalvado wrote:
There are more than 100 groups working on vaccines right now. Of course, 9 women cannot get a baby in 1 month - but there are some new approaches being looked at.
Flu vaccine is a very bad comparison as it is just another example of bad science being force fed to public. Covid research operates on a much more solid basis.


True, is October too optimistic on having a safe vaccine?
Thanks and best Regards
AA
 
kalvado
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Re: Covid 19 vaccine and return to normality?

Fri Jun 19, 2020 9:20 pm

MileHFL400 wrote:
kalvado wrote:
There are more than 100 groups working on vaccines right now. Of course, 9 women cannot get a baby in 1 month - but there are some new approaches being looked at.
Flu vaccine is a very bad comparison as it is just another example of bad science being force fed to public. Covid research operates on a much more solid basis.


True, is October too optimistic on having a safe vaccine?

who knows? Biology was the fastest moving science lately - and covid gives it another boost, to the levels unheard of...
 
Dieuwer
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Re: Covid 19 vaccine and return to normality?

Fri Jun 19, 2020 9:31 pm

What I don't understand if why trials take so long. You would think that giving a group of people a shot or pill that within a couple of weeks you know if the shot or pill works on nor. I don't get the months and months and months of waiting for... ."something".
 
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casinterest
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Re: Covid 19 vaccine and return to normality?

Fri Jun 19, 2020 9:37 pm

Dieuwer wrote:
What I don't understand if why trials take so long. You would think that giving a group of people a shot or pill that within a couple of weeks you know if the shot or pill works on nor. I don't get the months and months and months of waiting for... ."something".



You need tests.
Covid itself has a long incubation period, and then you need to test for side effects. A good cycle can take 2-4 months.
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ltbewr
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Re: Covid 19 vaccine and return to normality?

Fri Jun 19, 2020 10:11 pm

A certain President facing a re-election in November would love for a working vaccine to be available before then, even if for a few 1000 They could say 'I did it' and use it to win re-election..

If and when a vaccine is developed, there will be a obscene battles as to who gets it first. If developed in the USA, then people will want it first here before any exports of it. The formula and way to make it should be free, open sourced so countries around the world can make it too as that benefits all as fast as possible. In the USA, the Federal government should be the sole buyer, and at actual costs to make the product with no profit or overhead margin There are a bunch of complicated ethical, logistical and emotional issues a vaccine will create and it better work or god forbid the consequences

There could be unintended side affects or errors in manufacturing as it is reaches broader distribution, many even if qualified earlier to get it may resist due to that fear.

Then who gets it first for example in the USA. Many would say health care workers including in nursing homes, those in hospitals and nursing homes, along with EMT's and First Responders including police. You know all top politicians and their rich bribers will try by all means necessary to be in the first group. Next should be those most vulnerable by age and underlying medical conditions and 'essential workers' like in food processing, prep and delivery, teachers. Then middle-aged adults, young adults and children. Some parents may demand their children get the vaccine before they do so can go to school or just out of love. Many will put those in jails, but not corrections officials, those illegally residing here the last to get it if at all or even if needed.

There will be lines miles long each day at locations to give the shot(s), 100's of 1000's of trained persons to give them, billions of pieces of PPE needed to do it. Then you also have the problem of once a small group gets the shot, of massive overconfidence, and people giving up on all public health controls way too early.
 
frmrCapCadet
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Re: Covid 19 vaccine and return to normality?

Fri Jun 19, 2020 11:24 pm

A vaccine has to be established as safe, effective dose determined, over all effectiveness established. October is far too optimistic. We don't even know now if contracting the disease produces immunity.
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Kent350787
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Re: Covid 19 vaccine and return to normality?

Sat Jun 20, 2020 12:01 am

frmrCapCadet wrote:
A vaccine has to be established as safe, effective dose determined, over all effectiveness established. October is far too optimistic. We don't even know now if contracting the disease produces immunity.


This is a very good point as well. Ealrlier in the week I saw reporting that even with its "open" strategy, Covid antibodies are only present in around 14% of the population.

A someone enjoys travelling overseas, I do fear that Oceania and the south Pacific may be locked down for an extended period until there are nedical intervetions rather than quarantine and social distancing to prevent virus spread.

I do hope for an effective, freely available and widely distributed vaccine in the near future, but worry that we now live in a world where, although the bi-med bit can work, the other bits won't.
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Thunderboltdrgn
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Re: Covid 19 vaccine and return to normality?

Sat Jun 20, 2020 12:16 pm

MileHFL400 wrote:
kalvado wrote:
There are more than 100 groups working on vaccines right now. Of course, 9 women cannot get a baby in 1 month - but there are some new approaches being looked at.
Flu vaccine is a very bad comparison as it is just another example of bad science being force fed to public. Covid research operates on a much more solid basis.


True, is October too optimistic on having a safe vaccine?


October 2020 yes, October 2021 is perhaps a bit more realistic.
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MileHFL400
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Re: Covid 19 vaccine and return to normality?

Sat Jun 20, 2020 2:05 pm

Thunderboltdrgn wrote:
MileHFL400 wrote:
kalvado wrote:
There are more than 100 groups working on vaccines right now. Of course, 9 women cannot get a baby in 1 month - but there are some new approaches being looked at.
Flu vaccine is a very bad comparison as it is just another example of bad science being force fed to public. Covid research operates on a much more solid basis.


True, is October too optimistic on having a safe vaccine?


October 2020 yes, October 2021 is perhaps a bit more realistic.


Wow that’s insane! The world economy will be shredded to pieces by then!
Thanks and best Regards
AA
 
frmrCapCadet
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Re: Covid 19 vaccine and return to normality?

Sat Jun 20, 2020 3:58 pm

MileHFL400 wrote:
Thunderboltdrgn wrote:
MileHFL400 wrote:

True, is October too optimistic on having a safe vaccine?


October 2020 yes, October 2021 is perhaps a bit more realistic.


Wow that’s insane! The world economy will be shredded to pieces by then!


The is repetitious but allow me:
Initial Phase 1, essential work only but even there, monitor for symptoms, test, administrative leave for those who have been exposed. Masks. Social distancing when possible, re-engineer for better social distancing. Workers at home take steps to protect the rest of the household, more social distancing.

Case load will improve, greatly so, but it takes some work, and it takes dealing with the virus as a serious issue. Avoid non-essential recreation that involves being close to other people in a compromising manner

There will be more infections, there will be more hospitalizations, there will be deaths. But the numbers will be manageable, and we all can get back to work, back to play, but in a different way.
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bgm
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Re: Covid 19 vaccine and return to normality?

Sat Jun 20, 2020 3:58 pm

MileHFL400 wrote:
Thunderboltdrgn wrote:
MileHFL400 wrote:

True, is October too optimistic on having a safe vaccine?


October 2020 yes, October 2021 is perhaps a bit more realistic.


Wow that’s insane! The world economy will be shredded to pieces by then!


Not to mention the millions of lives lost. (we're already at ~ 460,000)

Economies can continue to function if people would stop being so selfish and wear the damn masks and quit standing so close to each other. But these are humans we're going about, so I guess it's asking too much.
If you hate wearing a mask, you’re really going to hate using a ventilator.
 
bennett123
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Re: Covid 19 vaccine and return to normality?

Sat Jun 20, 2020 4:16 pm

I was at the shops today.

Perhaps 50% wearing masks and distancing.

The rest doing neither.
 
LCDFlight
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Re: Covid 19 vaccine and return to normality?

Sat Jun 20, 2020 5:32 pm

I do not see that a vaccine is necessary. The disease itself may be a one-time thing.

Observe Italy. Italy received massive COVID exposure. Its initial death count was high. That's over. Its death count today is low. Perhaps it will be nothing in the future. Once the virus is endemic, nobody will get their first exposure over age 60 anymore. So, few to no people will die of it after 2020. That's one theory.

NYC had exactly the same death curve, which looks, not like a reaction to "social distancing," but to me it looks exactly like a natural burnout curve for a virus. Everybody was exposed. The people who died, died. NYC is nearly free of COVID deaths now. Again, it shows that very few people are getting their first exposure now. Why? My take is they were already exposed.

This throws existing virus and antibody testing into doubt. Perhaps it is only 20% sensitive. It may have a ton of false negatives.

Anyhow, I am not positioning myself as an authority, I am positioning the evidence as something that needs to be explained, and I offered one explanation. The virus is very infectious, it is going to kill people who are hypersensitive to it during the initial wave. But after that, the virus will not be a cause of hospitalizations. My 2c.
 
MileHFL400
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Re: Covid 19 vaccine and return to normality?

Sat Jun 20, 2020 7:22 pm

LCDFlight wrote:
I do not see that a vaccine is necessary. The disease itself may be a one-time thing.

Observe Italy. Italy received massive COVID exposure. Its initial death count was high. That's over. Its death count today is low. Perhaps it will be nothing in the future. Once the virus is endemic, nobody will get their first exposure over age 60 anymore. So, few to no people will die of it after 2020. That's one theory.

NYC had exactly the same death curve, which looks, not like a reaction to "social distancing," but to me it looks exactly like a natural burnout curve for a virus. Everybody was exposed. The people who died, died. NYC is nearly free of COVID deaths now. Again, it shows that very few people are getting their first exposure now. Why? My take is they were already exposed.

This throws existing virus and antibody testing into doubt. Perhaps it is only 20% sensitive. It may have a ton of false negatives.

Anyhow, I am not positioning myself as an authority, I am positioning the evidence as something that needs to be explained, and I offered one explanation. The virus is very infectious, it is going to kill people who are hypersensitive to it during the initial wave. But after that, the virus will not be a cause of hospitalizations. My 2c.


Weren’t the flattening of the curves in New York and Italy mostly due to extensive lock down procedures?
Thanks and best Regards
AA
 
LCDFlight
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Re: Covid 19 vaccine and return to normality?

Sat Jun 20, 2020 7:58 pm

MileHFL400 wrote:
LCDFlight wrote:
I do not see that a vaccine is necessary. The disease itself may be a one-time thing.

Observe Italy. Italy received massive COVID exposure. Its initial death count was high. That's over. Its death count today is low. Perhaps it will be nothing in the future. Once the virus is endemic, nobody will get their first exposure over age 60 anymore. So, few to no people will die of it after 2020. That's one theory.

NYC had exactly the same death curve, which looks, not like a reaction to "social distancing," but to me it looks exactly like a natural burnout curve for a virus. Everybody was exposed. The people who died, died. NYC is nearly free of COVID deaths now. Again, it shows that very few people are getting their first exposure now. Why? My take is they were already exposed.

This throws existing virus and antibody testing into doubt. Perhaps it is only 20% sensitive. It may have a ton of false negatives.

Anyhow, I am not positioning myself as an authority, I am positioning the evidence as something that needs to be explained, and I offered one explanation. The virus is very infectious, it is going to kill people who are hypersensitive to it during the initial wave. But after that, the virus will not be a cause of hospitalizations. My 2c.


Weren’t the flattening of the curves in New York and Italy mostly due to extensive lock down procedures?


It wasn't just flattening, it was near total reduction. Yes, one theory is that social distancing was near 100% effective. I really don't see experts overtly saying that. I don't think they believe it. There may never be consensus about this, but NYC and Italy (and Spain, UK) were such huge samples, and behaved in the same way, that we should be able to build a strong theory. Do we expect that rather than killing 25,000 people in new York, the virus really would have killed 250,000 if there was no distancing? AFAIK, is zero evidence or even theoretical basis presented to support that. I think NYC was fully exposed and the distancing had a very mild effect, because the city was already so soaked. And as a result, the city will not have significant future COVID hospitalizations. But actual scientists will figure this out. So far, your theory is one viable theory and so is mine AFAIK..
 
Kno
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Re: Covid 19 vaccine and return to normality?

Sat Jun 20, 2020 9:10 pm

Normality was overrated and the new norm has a lot of perks. For jobs where it makes sense let’s only have people at the office in shifts maybe 2-3 times a week and otherwise work from home. Less traffic and pollution, less strain on public transportation, is great.
 
Dieuwer
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Re: Covid 19 vaccine and return to normality?

Sat Jun 20, 2020 10:32 pm

bennett123 wrote:
I was at the shops today.

Perhaps 50% wearing masks and distancing.

The rest doing neither.


I was cycling today and got berated for not cycling the right way around the lake. Apparently there was a sign that I missed that said I had to cycle clockwise instead of counterclockwise. Anyhow, I will remember next time.
Most people were wearing masks except for kids and college students.
 
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Aesma
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Re: Covid 19 vaccine and return to normality?

Sat Jun 20, 2020 10:59 pm

I'm in France and I have family in Italy. I think people in the US don't understand what lockdown was like here (or Spain either). It meant most people not getting out of their homes for days on end, and that for 2 months straight ! With police doling out fines or worse if not obeyed. In Spain children were banned from the streets for more than a month.

That's what allowed us to control the virus, not herd immunity. Without a vaccine, herd immunity will take years to achieve, and can only happen if the virus doesn't mutate too much.

As for the vaccine, the one or two that could be available in October are basically already being produced, even though we don't know if they work or are safe. The US, and separately, the EU and some EU countries together, have already paid vast amounts to the laboratories developing these, to ensure they will get the first doses. A few millions at first, so countries have to figure out now how they will distribute these, to vulnerable people first ? Critical jobs ? People that are in hot spots ?
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LCDFlight
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Re: Covid 19 vaccine and return to normality?

Sun Jun 21, 2020 3:53 am

Aesma wrote:
I'm in France and I have family in Italy. I think people in the US don't understand what lockdown was like here (or Spain either). It meant most people not getting out of their homes for days on end, and that for 2 months straight ! With police doling out fines or worse if not obeyed. In Spain children were banned from the streets for more than a month.

That's what allowed us to control the virus, not herd immunity. Without a vaccine, herd immunity will take years to achieve, and can only happen if the virus doesn't mutate too much.

As for the vaccine, the one or two that could be available in October are basically already being produced, even though we don't know if they work or are safe. The US, and separately, the EU and some EU countries together, have already paid vast amounts to the laboratories developing these, to ensure they will get the first doses. A few millions at first, so countries have to figure out now how they will distribute these, to vulnerable people first ? Critical jobs ? People that are in hot spots ?


LOL. How quaint. I would bet the first few million doses will be handed out roughly in order of net worth of the recipients, after it is given to some guinea pigs.
 
MileHFL400
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Re: Covid 19 vaccine and return to normality?

Sun Jun 21, 2020 6:38 am

Aesma wrote:
I'm in France and I have family in Italy. I think people in the US don't understand what lockdown was like here (or Spain either). It meant most people not getting out of their homes for days on end, and that for 2 months straight ! With police doling out fines or worse if not obeyed. In Spain children were banned from the streets for more than a month.

That's what allowed us to control the virus, not herd immunity. Without a vaccine, herd immunity will take years to achieve, and can only happen if the virus doesn't mutate too much.

As for the vaccine, the one or two that could be available in October are basically already being produced, even though we don't know if they work or are safe. The US, and separately, the EU and some EU countries together, have already paid vast amounts to the laboratories developing these, to ensure they will get the first doses. A few millions at first, so countries have to figure out now how they will distribute these, to vulnerable people first ? Critical jobs ? People that are in hot spots ?


This is what I think as well. Herd immunity will take years to achieve and will also wipe out many millions of lives before it happens.
Thanks and best Regards
AA
 
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stl07
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Re: Covid 19 vaccine and return to normality?

Sun Jun 21, 2020 6:52 am

There had been a return to normalcy in many countries such as New Zealand, Thailand, and Australia. But for that, you need to kick out the virus. This requires a competent government that uses science and requires masks and contact tracing
Instead of typing in "mods", consider using the report function.
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KFTG
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Re: Covid 19 vaccine and return to normality?

Sun Jun 21, 2020 6:59 am

MileHFL400 wrote:
This is what I think as well. Herd immunity will take years to achieve and will also wipe out many millions of lives before it happens.

Your point being?
Are we going to (perhaps permanently) wreck the entire planet's economy over this?
 
MileHFL400
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Re: Covid 19 vaccine and return to normality?

Sun Jun 21, 2020 7:36 am

KFTG wrote:
MileHFL400 wrote:
This is what I think as well. Herd immunity will take years to achieve and will also wipe out many millions of lives before it happens.

Your point being?
Are we going to (perhaps permanently) wreck the entire planet's economy over this?


So you dont mind the loss of millions of lives for the sake of the global economy?
Thanks and best Regards
AA
 
KFTG
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Re: Covid 19 vaccine and return to normality?

Sun Jun 21, 2020 7:48 am

MileHFL400 wrote:
KFTG wrote:
MileHFL400 wrote:
This is what I think as well. Herd immunity will take years to achieve and will also wipe out many millions of lives before it happens.

Your point being?
Are we going to (perhaps permanently) wreck the entire planet's economy over this?


So you dont mind the loss of millions of lives for the sake of the global economy?

Why don't you answer the question?
There are billions of human beings currently living and 60 million die each year.
Prolonged or perhaps permanent economic collapse will kill far many than COVID-19 ever hoped to.
Last edited by KFTG on Sun Jun 21, 2020 7:50 am, edited 2 times in total.
 
MileHFL400
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Re: Covid 19 vaccine and return to normality?

Sun Jun 21, 2020 7:49 am

KFTG wrote:
MileHFL400 wrote:
KFTG wrote:
Your point being?
Are we going to (perhaps permanently) wreck the entire planet's economy over this?


So you dont mind the loss of millions of lives for the sake of the global economy?

Why don't you answer the question?
There are billions of human beings currently living and 60 million die each year.
Prolonged or perhaps permanent economic collapse will kill far many than COVID-19 ever hoped to.


That's pretty twisted logic.
Thanks and best Regards
AA
 
KFTG
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Re: Covid 19 vaccine and return to normality?

Sun Jun 21, 2020 7:50 am

Yes, answering your question honestly is something you won't do because doing so would preclude you from further hyperbolic replies.
Without a functioning, large scale economy, the human race will cease to exist as we know it.
 
KFTG
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Re: Covid 19 vaccine and return to normality?

Sun Jun 21, 2020 7:53 am

Let's assume there is a vaccine. Let's also assume it is only partially effective against certain strains. What then? Whose pearls are you going to clutch then?
In this (likely) outcome, are you people seriously going to continue advocating for social distancing for the remainder of your lives? Are you seriously going to limit, for example, restaurant capacity at 50% long term, perhaps permanently? Good luck if any of those businesses survive.
And there will be larger economic affects necessitating the mass production of many more body bags than COVID ever would have claimed, e.g. mass starvation in the developing world.
But at least the Karens of the world (and this thread) will "feel safe", whatever that means.
 
KFTG
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Re: Covid 19 vaccine and return to normality?

Sun Jun 21, 2020 8:08 am

Also, why are you so worried?
I was told you just need a mask.
 
MileHFL400
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Re: Covid 19 vaccine and return to normality?

Sun Jun 21, 2020 8:18 am

KFTG wrote:
Also, why are you so worried?
I was told you just need a mask.


Well clearly you were told wrong. I tested positive despite wearing a mask at all times in public, and practicing social distancing.
Thanks and best Regards
AA
 
KFTG
Posts: 788
Joined: Sun Apr 28, 2019 12:08 am

Re: Covid 19 vaccine and return to normality?

Sun Jun 21, 2020 8:19 am

Well, well, well...
Did you test positive for the virus itself or antibodies?
 
MileHFL400
Topic Author
Posts: 773
Joined: Sat Dec 05, 2015 11:42 am

Re: Covid 19 vaccine and return to normality?

Sun Jun 21, 2020 8:37 am

KFTG wrote:
Well, well, well...
Did you test positive for the virus itself or antibodies?


The virus.
Thanks and best Regards
AA
 
KFTG
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Joined: Sun Apr 28, 2019 12:08 am

Re: Covid 19 vaccine and return to normality?

Sun Jun 21, 2020 8:41 am

Take care of yourself then.
Are you asymptomatic?
 
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par13del
Posts: 10217
Joined: Sun Dec 18, 2005 9:14 pm

Re: Covid 19 vaccine and return to normality?

Sun Jun 21, 2020 12:39 pm

MileHFL400 wrote:
So at the back of my mind, and even more so now since I got tested positive for covid I’ve been wondering when normality will return to the world.

If you do not mind, I would like to deal with today and your current situation.

Positive while wearing mask, that's troubling if you do not know how you were infected, are the medical professionals investigating or have they just added you as a number and moved on?
Did they require you to self isolate or place you in a quarantine facility where they can monitor you?
Is anyone providing you with any kind of medication, did they offer to put you in any kind of trial?
Did you have any symptoms before the positive test, are you sick now?

We know all about the numbers, they are thrown at us every day, however, based on the length of time this has been going on, some details now are worth investigating. We even have some saying that these latest infections are not as deadly as the initial of late Dec-2019 early 2020 and the virus may be weakening or dying out, forgive me if I try to be more informed versus just go with numbers.

On the trials front, what I fail to understand is for those drugs that were already being used for malaria for example, they went through years of trials before being released and have been in use on humans for a long time, yet they still have to suspend their use to investigate their effects on the human body?
I accept the educated think the general population are lacking, but ....
 
Jalap
Posts: 626
Joined: Thu Oct 18, 2007 4:25 pm

Re: Covid 19 vaccine and return to normality?

Sun Jun 21, 2020 1:02 pm

KFTG wrote:
MileHFL400 wrote:
This is what I think as well. Herd immunity will take years to achieve and will also wipe out many millions of lives before it happens.

Your point being?
Are we going to (perhaps permanently) wreck the entire planet's economy over this?

The economy is nothing but a tool to organize society.
If the economy can’t handle this crisis, then it doesn’t need to be saved. Then is it a broken tool that needs to be fixed.
 
Jalap
Posts: 626
Joined: Thu Oct 18, 2007 4:25 pm

Re: Covid 19 vaccine and return to normality?

Sun Jun 21, 2020 1:10 pm

LCDFlight wrote:
I think NYC was fully exposed and the distancing had a very mild effect, because the city was already so soaked. And as a result, the city will not have significant future COVID hospitalizations. But actual scientists will figure this out. So far, your theory is one viable theory and so is mine AFAIK..

Theories need proof.
Serological testing seem to indicate less than 10 percent infection rates, even in the hardest hit places.
Of course, those tests could be flawed. Yet the numbers are a strong argument for limited exposure and very effective results from distancing. Second argument is that countries without strict distancing have never seen a drop in infections. Sweden, Belarus to name 2. Strong cases for the effectiveness of distancing.

There is zero evidence that there could have been total exposure anywhere.

If I was to make decisions based on 2 theories, I think I would take the one with at least some evidence.

Now, it may turn out that we’re lucky some countries didn’t go for strict distancing. Those will be ideal places to test the new vaccines.
 
Jalap
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Joined: Thu Oct 18, 2007 4:25 pm

Re: Covid 19 vaccine and return to normality?

Sun Jun 21, 2020 1:17 pm

frmrCapCadet wrote:
A vaccine has to be established as safe, effective dose determined, over all effectiveness established. October is far too optimistic. We don't even know now if contracting the disease produces immunity.

It seems experts feel early 2021 is “mildly optimistic”.
By september, the first large scale effectivity tests will be going on. This is the final stage before approval In those tests, a population of at least 10.000 will get the vaccine, and another 10.000+ will get a placebo. Then, fingers crossed that the vaccine will be effective enough. 2 groups are currently preparing this test. But they need a place with a lot of virus, because if your population isn’t getting enough exposure to the virus, then the tests are useless.
I’ve got a feeling they’ll choose Sweden, or perhaps places in the USA with a lot of virus.

Things could go faster if they would deliberately expose healthy people to the virus in those tests, but that raises serious ethical issues.
 
marcelh
Posts: 986
Joined: Wed Jun 19, 2013 12:43 pm

Re: Covid 19 vaccine and return to normality?

Sun Jun 21, 2020 1:18 pm

KFTG wrote:
Also, why are you so worried?
I was told you just need a mask.

Most masks won’t help. Social distancing, stay at home when you are feeling sick and wash your hands will do a lot more.
 
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par13del
Posts: 10217
Joined: Sun Dec 18, 2005 9:14 pm

Re: Covid 19 vaccine and return to normality?

Sun Jun 21, 2020 1:28 pm

Jalap wrote:
Now, it may turn out that we’re lucky some countries didn’t go for strict distancing. Those will be ideal places to test the new vaccines.

My conspiracy hat tells me that the economic tool has to be used against all countries to ensure that no country benefits while others take an economic hit, collective punishment and all that, now China.........
 
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par13del
Posts: 10217
Joined: Sun Dec 18, 2005 9:14 pm

Re: Covid 19 vaccine and return to normality?

Sun Jun 21, 2020 1:31 pm

Jalap wrote:
I’ve got a feeling they’ll choose Sweden, or perhaps places in the USA with a lot of virus.

Things could go faster if they would deliberately expose healthy people to the virus in those tests, but that raises serious ethical issues.

So the experts hav abandoned using Africa sine they said BAME were more susceptible, or was that just fake news?
In all the number throwing some things get lost in the shuffle.
 
MileHFL400
Topic Author
Posts: 773
Joined: Sat Dec 05, 2015 11:42 am

Re: Covid 19 vaccine and return to normality?

Sun Jun 21, 2020 2:19 pm

Jalap wrote:
frmrCapCadet wrote:
A vaccine has to be established as safe, effective dose determined, over all effectiveness established. October is far too optimistic. We don't even know now if contracting the disease produces immunity.

It seems experts feel early 2021 is “mildly optimistic”.
By september, the first large scale effectivity tests will be going on. This is the final stage before approval In those tests, a population of at least 10.000 will get the vaccine, and another 10.000+ will get a placebo. Then, fingers crossed that the vaccine will be effective enough. 2 groups are currently preparing this test. But they need a place with a lot of virus, because if your population isn’t getting enough exposure to the virus, then the tests are useless.
I’ve got a feeling they’ll choose Sweden, or perhaps places in the USA with a lot of virus.

Things could go faster if they would deliberately expose healthy people to the virus in those tests, but that raises serious ethical issues.


I read somewhere that the Oxford University trial may take place in Brazil. I believe they have the fastest growth in cases.
Thanks and best Regards
AA
 
frmrCapCadet
Posts: 3996
Joined: Thu May 29, 2008 8:24 pm

Re: Covid 19 vaccine and return to normality?

Sun Jun 21, 2020 2:29 pm

Every religion and culture has its anti-vaccinators. Add to that the political difficulty of explaining why 10K get good medications, and another 10K get placebos. It is a hard sell even in countries leading in science research. Or the political climate which asserts western medicine (or a least some medicines) are a plot to subjugate poor people.

Ideally safety would be assessed in the country in which the vaccine was developed. Effectiveness would be assessed in areas where the disease is most prevalent. Ramp up would occur throughout the world, all developed countries through licenses would manufacture their own. NGOs would fund factories for countries who could not do it for themselves.
Buffet: the airline business...has eaten up capital...like..no other (business)
 
MileHFL400
Topic Author
Posts: 773
Joined: Sat Dec 05, 2015 11:42 am

Re: Covid 19 vaccine and return to normality?

Sun Jun 21, 2020 2:49 pm

par13del wrote:
MileHFL400 wrote:
So at the back of my mind, and even more so now since I got tested positive for covid I’ve been wondering when normality will return to the world.

If you do not mind, I would like to deal with today and your current situation.

Positive while wearing mask, that's troubling if you do not know how you were infected, are the medical professionals investigating or have they just added you as a number and moved on?
Did they require you to self isolate or place you in a quarantine facility where they can monitor you?
Is anyone providing you with any kind of medication, did they offer to put you in any kind of trial?
Did you have any symptoms before the positive test, are you sick now?

We know all about the numbers, they are thrown at us every day, however, based on the length of time this has been going on, some details now are worth investigating. We even have some saying that these latest infections are not as deadly as the initial of late Dec-2019 early 2020 and the virus may be weakening or dying out, forgive me if I try to be more informed versus just go with numbers.

On the trials front, what I fail to understand is for those drugs that were already being used for malaria for example, they went through years of trials before being released and have been in use on humans for a long time, yet they still have to suspend their use to investigate their effects on the human body?
I accept the educated think the general population are lacking, but ....


Well basically I got added as a number and they moved on. Truthfully I have no idea where I got my infection on. It could be from my credit card while paying for fuel. Who knows!

I hope you’re right in that the latest infections are less deadly than before and the death rate in some parts of the world certainly seems to be supporting that.
Thanks and best Regards
AA
 
Jalap
Posts: 626
Joined: Thu Oct 18, 2007 4:25 pm

Re: Covid 19 vaccine and return to normality?

Sun Jun 21, 2020 4:01 pm

MileHFL400 wrote:
I read somewhere that the Oxford University trial may take place in Brazil. I believe they have the fastest growth in cases.

Yes, forgot about Bazil.
I read there’s 2 possible vaccines in the lead. The Oxford one, and Johnson & Johnson.
J&J will start with 1045 humans in Belgium (where it’s being developed) & the USA in July. That’s the phase 1/2 test (see what the reaction is and if the correct antibodies are indeed being generated).
Phase 3 (large scale with vaccine or placebo control group) they hope to start in September. Chance of succes is estimated at 50 percent.
They already started production, they aim to having 1 billion doses in 2021.
Last edited by Jalap on Sun Jun 21, 2020 4:05 pm, edited 2 times in total.
 
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Aesma
Posts: 12944
Joined: Sat Nov 14, 2009 6:14 am

Re: Covid 19 vaccine and return to normality?

Sun Jun 21, 2020 4:39 pm

KFTG wrote:
Yes, answering your question honestly is something you won't do because doing so would preclude you from further hyperbolic replies.
Without a functioning, large scale economy, the human race will cease to exist as we know it.


To provide the basics (which we don't even do in normal times), food, shelter, medicines, a bit of energy, we don't need a large scale economy. We need to concentrate on those needs.

I doubt it will happen though. But if the virus was much more deadly, that would have to be the plan.
New Technology is the name we give to stuff that doesn't work yet. Douglas Adams

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