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LCDFlight
Posts: 454
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Re: Covid 19 vaccine and return to normality?

Wed Jun 24, 2020 4:14 pm

KFTG wrote:
There will not be another lockdown.

Also, no concerted effort?
"New York, New Jersey and Connecticut impose 14-day quarantine on travelers from coronavirus hotspot states"
Completely unenforceable and should be ignored entirely.


Agreed. It's not enforceable. NY, NJ are embarrassed because of their failure to control a complete saturation with COVID and the unbelievable death tolls that were caused. In part, and this is awkward to talk about, this may have been caused poor personal cleanliness in those states.

Now, they want to lash out at other states that treated them with respect in their time of need. It's ridiculous, because COVID may be endemic to NY/NJ. Visitors should expect to be exposed to it while there...
 
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par13del
Posts: 10263
Joined: Sun Dec 18, 2005 9:14 pm

Re: Covid 19 vaccine and return to normality?

Thu Jun 25, 2020 2:02 am

KFTG wrote:
There will not be another lockdown.

Also, no concerted effort?
"New York, New Jersey and Connecticut impose 14-day quarantine on travelers from coronavirus hotspot states"
Completely unenforceable and should be ignored entirely.

If they had quarantined themselves versus letting their kids go on spring break to Florida and other southern states earlier this year....
 
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DocLightning
Posts: 21816
Joined: Wed Nov 16, 2005 8:51 am

Re: Covid 19 vaccine and return to normality?

Thu Jun 25, 2020 3:27 am

Dahlgardo wrote:
My question is then : is it possible that the "dark number" of covid-19 cases that are not found through testing, is somewhat higher than some believe, because the antibodies disappear quite fast and cannot be measured in an antobody test? I assume you cannot measure the long-term cell-mediated immunity in an antobody test?

This might suggest that the disease could be much more wide spread than number suggest, and we are in a better place with regard to mortality rate and herd immunity than we think.


I would say that so far, the vast majority of patients who have had COVID-19 and developed antibodies still have theirs, given that the disease is only 7 months old. But in the longer term, yes, antibodies may be a poor marker. They're easy enough to measure, but long-term memory cells are much more difficult to measure.
-Doc Lightning-

"The sky calls to us. If we do not destroy ourselves, we will one day venture to the stars."
-Carl Sagan
 
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Aesma
Posts: 13041
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Re: Covid 19 vaccine and return to normality?

Thu Jun 25, 2020 4:57 am

KFTG wrote:
The COVID-19 industrial complex and their allies in the media are hell bent on imposing another lockdown.
Amazon, et al. would like nothing more than to see every single brick and mortar retailer closed down.
The media would like nothing more than ever single American locked in their homes watching as much tee-vee and YouTube ads as possible.
It ain't happening.
Deaths are not spiking.
This thing is puttering out just like SARS did, albeit on a global scale.


Image

Also, there was no lockdown in the US. Some places did some things. Nothing concerted, nothing enforced, nothing coming from the top, no strategy. You can't "go back to lockdown" when there never was one to begin with.
New Technology is the name we give to stuff that doesn't work yet. Douglas Adams
 
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Noris
Posts: 28
Joined: Wed Apr 08, 2009 11:29 pm

Re: Covid 19 vaccine and return to normality?

Sun Jun 28, 2020 8:06 pm

DocLightning wrote:
I would say that so far, the vast majority of patients who have had COVID-19 and developed antibodies still have theirs, given that the disease is only 7 months old. But in the longer term, yes, antibodies may be a poor marker. They're easy enough to measure, but long-term memory cells are much more difficult to measure.


I read an article yesterday claiming that traces of SARS-CoV-2 had been found in a wastewater sample in Spain. The sample was from March 2019!

https://uk.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-spain-science/coronavirus-traces-found-in-march-2019-sewage-sample-spanish-study-shows-idUKKBN23X2HQ

Contamination of the sample perhaps, or could this virus have been circulating since then, seemingly undetected?

Rgds.
 
Dieuwer
Posts: 2413
Joined: Tue Dec 26, 2017 6:27 pm

Re: Covid 19 vaccine and return to normality?

Sun Jun 28, 2020 8:30 pm

Perhaps COVID will just need to be treated similarly as the flu: ever year you need to get a new shot.
And research into Coronavirusses will have to continue indefinitely.
 
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DocLightning
Posts: 21816
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Re: Covid 19 vaccine and return to normality?

Mon Jun 29, 2020 2:18 am

Noris wrote:
I read an article yesterday claiming that traces of SARS-CoV-2 had been found in a wastewater sample in Spain. The sample was from March 2019!

https://uk.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-spain-science/coronavirus-traces-found-in-march-2019-sewage-sample-spanish-study-shows-idUKKBN23X2HQ

Contamination of the sample perhaps, or could this virus have been circulating since then, seemingly undetected?

Rgds.


I've seen this, too. Not sure what to make of it. How could it have already spread to Spain without spiraling out of control? I'd want to see detailed sequence data on what they've found and technical details on how they found it. It could be that they found RATG-13 or a similar wild coronavirus that is SARS-related.
-Doc Lightning-

"The sky calls to us. If we do not destroy ourselves, we will one day venture to the stars."
-Carl Sagan
 
acavpics
Posts: 367
Joined: Thu Dec 20, 2018 2:54 am

Re: Covid 19 vaccine and return to normality?

Fri Jul 03, 2020 12:35 am

Jalap wrote:
MileHFL400 wrote:
I read somewhere that the Oxford University trial may take place in Brazil. I believe they have the fastest growth in cases.

Yes, forgot about Bazil.
I read there’s 2 possible vaccines in the lead. The Oxford one, and Johnson & Johnson.
J&J will start with 1045 humans in Belgium (where it’s being developed) & the USA in July. That’s the phase 1/2 test (see what the reaction is and if the correct antibodies are indeed being generated).
Phase 3 (large scale with vaccine or placebo control group) they hope to start in September. Chance of succes is estimated at 50 percent.
They already started production, they aim to having 1 billion doses in 2021.


Pfizer just stated that there are "positive results" from early phase trials for their vaccine candidate. And they are "very optimistic" about a vaccine being distributed this fall.

I'd say that Pfizer/BioNTech and AstraZeneca/Oxford University candidates are the best bets for a chance of vaccination by the end of 2020.
 
MileHFL400
Topic Author
Posts: 776
Joined: Sat Dec 05, 2015 11:42 am

Re: Covid 19 vaccine and return to normality?

Fri Jul 03, 2020 4:23 am

acavpics wrote:
Jalap wrote:
MileHFL400 wrote:
I read somewhere that the Oxford University trial may take place in Brazil. I believe they have the fastest growth in cases.

Yes, forgot about Bazil.
I read there’s 2 possible vaccines in the lead. The Oxford one, and Johnson & Johnson.
J&J will start with 1045 humans in Belgium (where it’s being developed) & the USA in July. That’s the phase 1/2 test (see what the reaction is and if the correct antibodies are indeed being generated).
Phase 3 (large scale with vaccine or placebo control group) they hope to start in September. Chance of succes is estimated at 50 percent.
They already started production, they aim to having 1 billion doses in 2021.


Pfizer just stated that there are "positive results" from early phase trials for their vaccine candidate. And they are "very optimistic" about a vaccine being distributed this fall.

I'd say that Pfizer/BioNTech and AstraZeneca/Oxford University candidates are the best bets for a chance of vaccination by the end of 2020.


There also seems to be a number of vaccines entering phase one every other day.
Thanks and best Regards
AA
 
Toenga
Posts: 53
Joined: Thu Jan 23, 2020 2:55 am

Re: Covid 19 vaccine and return to normality?

Fri Jul 03, 2020 6:31 am

And just what is normality?
Here in NZ we have no known cases out in the general community for some weeks now, no restrictions on gatherings, no social distancing, and no masks. Only a small part of our economy and lifestyle is currently affected. But a big departure from previous normality, in that our border is effectively closed to all but returning kiwis, and they have to endure state custody for 14 plus days before release into the community. Our problem is how to exit this state, with minimal additional costs to our economy and well being.
Venetians currently are now enjoying their city as their own, not as a displaced minority in their own city. Similarly around the world many other tourist hot spots have had the degradation caused by unsustainable tourism growth paused. Time to reflect.
Lockdowns rapidly proved that a lot of face to face contact in centralised offices and on business trips was not needed and could be replaced by virtual meetings, thus reducing commuting travel and business air travel requirements substantiall at considerable benifit to lifestyles and to our environment,
This crisis has cruelly and brutaly laid bare shortcomings in public health provision, social service provision, and indeed core leadership competence in so many considered advanced economies.
So any new normality must be a substantially different normality to what we had before.
 
acavpics
Posts: 367
Joined: Thu Dec 20, 2018 2:54 am

Re: Covid 19 vaccine and return to normality?

Fri Jul 03, 2020 9:45 pm

MileHFL400 wrote:
acavpics wrote:
Jalap wrote:
Yes, forgot about Bazil.
I read there’s 2 possible vaccines in the lead. The Oxford one, and Johnson & Johnson.
J&J will start with 1045 humans in Belgium (where it’s being developed) & the USA in July. That’s the phase 1/2 test (see what the reaction is and if the correct antibodies are indeed being generated).
Phase 3 (large scale with vaccine or placebo control group) they hope to start in September. Chance of succes is estimated at 50 percent.
They already started production, they aim to having 1 billion doses in 2021.


Pfizer just stated that there are "positive results" from early phase trials for their vaccine candidate. And they are "very optimistic" about a vaccine being distributed this fall.

I'd say that Pfizer/BioNTech and AstraZeneca/Oxford University candidates are the best bets for a chance of vaccination by the end of 2020.


There also seems to be a number of vaccines entering phase one every other day.


True. But anything just entering Phase 1 at this point in time will for sure come only in 2021, that is if they are proven safe and effective.

Heck, even Moderna, whose Phase 3 trial got delayed till later this month, is only planning on "having data by Thanksgiving," meaning that it would only reach consumer's hands after the new year.

In the US and probably even Europe, the best bet is AstraZeneca. Second best is probably Pfizer. Fingers crossed :)
 
Dieuwer
Posts: 2413
Joined: Tue Dec 26, 2017 6:27 pm

Re: Covid 19 vaccine and return to normality?

Sat Jul 04, 2020 7:19 am

AZN/Oxford could start fabricating their vaccine candidate now to have it ready by late this year if the final trial is successful. The worst thing that can happen is that the final trial is not successful and they need to throw out what they manufactured.
It's a bit of a gamble (the manufacturing part), but if they get free money from the government to do it....
 
ltbewr
Posts: 15125
Joined: Thu Jan 29, 2004 1:24 pm

Re: Covid 19 vaccine and return to normality?

Sat Jul 04, 2020 11:01 am

I have some questions to bring up as to a vaccine.

If someone had Covid-19 and still had antibodies, would it be necessary for them to get the vaccine ? Perhaps one would have to get the anti-body test and if that were true, others not exposed would get it.first.

Could some not be able to take the vaccine as have auto-immune diseases, allergies to some part of the contents ?

Will there be enough PPE, syringes and proper staffing to give it fast and correctly ?

Will there be (mainly as to the USA) some kind of compensation fund and limits on lawsuits, perhaps requiring mandatory mediation for those who get bad reactions to the vaccine ?
 
N757ST
Posts: 977
Joined: Sat Feb 16, 2002 6:00 am

Re: Covid 19 vaccine and return to normality?

Sat Jul 04, 2020 11:39 am

Dieuwer wrote:
AZN/Oxford could start fabricating their vaccine candidate now to have it ready by late this year if the final trial is successful. The worst thing that can happen is that the final trial is not successful and they need to throw out what they manufactured.
It's a bit of a gamble (the manufacturing part), but if they get free money from the government to do it....



I’m pretty sure they are already doing that.
 
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par13del
Posts: 10263
Joined: Sun Dec 18, 2005 9:14 pm

Re: Covid 19 vaccine and return to normality?

Sat Jul 04, 2020 12:56 pm

Toenga wrote:
And just what is normality?
Here in NZ we have no known cases out in the general community for some weeks now, no restrictions on gatherings, no social distancing, and no masks. Only a small part of our economy and lifestyle is currently affected. But a big departure from previous normality, in that our border is effectively closed to all but returning kiwis, and they have to endure state custody for 14 plus days before release into the community. Our problem is how to exit this state, with minimal additional costs to our economy and well being.
Venetians currently are now enjoying their city as their own, not as a displaced minority in their own city. Similarly around the world many other tourist hot spots have had the degradation caused by unsustainable tourism growth paused. Time to reflect.
Lockdowns rapidly proved that a lot of face to face contact in centralised offices and on business trips was not needed and could be replaced by virtual meetings, thus reducing commuting travel and business air travel requirements substantiall at considerable benifit to lifestyles and to our environment,
This crisis has cruelly and brutaly laid bare shortcomings in public health provision, social service provision, and indeed core leadership competence in so many considered advanced economies.
So any new normality must be a substantially different normality to what we had before.

One new normal is that without tourism, the various powers that be have to find another way to attempt to control local economies and ensure that they do not become insular, the more independent a country's economy gets the more difficult to control, one has to ensure that local economies stay tied to the global infrastructures to ensure control.
 
flyguy89
Posts: 2902
Joined: Tue Feb 24, 2009 6:43 pm

Re: Covid 19 vaccine and return to normality?

Sat Jul 04, 2020 6:46 pm

par13del wrote:
Toenga wrote:
And just what is normality?
Here in NZ we have no known cases out in the general community for some weeks now, no restrictions on gatherings, no social distancing, and no masks. Only a small part of our economy and lifestyle is currently affected. But a big departure from previous normality, in that our border is effectively closed to all but returning kiwis, and they have to endure state custody for 14 plus days before release into the community. Our problem is how to exit this state, with minimal additional costs to our economy and well being.
Venetians currently are now enjoying their city as their own, not as a displaced minority in their own city. Similarly around the world many other tourist hot spots have had the degradation caused by unsustainable tourism growth paused. Time to reflect.
Lockdowns rapidly proved that a lot of face to face contact in centralised offices and on business trips was not needed and could be replaced by virtual meetings, thus reducing commuting travel and business air travel requirements substantiall at considerable benifit to lifestyles and to our environment,
This crisis has cruelly and brutaly laid bare shortcomings in public health provision, social service provision, and indeed core leadership competence in so many considered advanced economies.
So any new normality must be a substantially different normality to what we had before.

One new normal is that without tourism, the various powers that be have to find another way to attempt to control local economies and ensure that they do not become insular, the more independent a country's economy gets the more difficult to control, one has to ensure that local economies stay tied to the global infrastructures to ensure control.

Insular and "independent economies" are usually dog whistles for more poverty and less wealth. You know who else has an insular and self-sufficient economy? North Korea.
 
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Aesma
Posts: 13041
Joined: Sat Nov 14, 2009 6:14 am

Re: Covid 19 vaccine and return to normality?

Sat Jul 04, 2020 8:02 pm

Dieuwer wrote:
Perhaps COVID will just need to be treated similarly as the flu: ever year you need to get a new shot.
And research into Coronavirusses will have to continue indefinitely.


Only certain people need to get a flu shot, for this, if the virus stays the same, it would be much more people. I have never taken a flu shot (and never had the flu either, or maybe I did but killed it in a few hours of fever) but will definitely take a (safe) COVID19 shot.
New Technology is the name we give to stuff that doesn't work yet. Douglas Adams
 
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Aesma
Posts: 13041
Joined: Sat Nov 14, 2009 6:14 am

Re: Covid 19 vaccine and return to normality?

Sat Jul 04, 2020 8:10 pm

Toenga wrote:
And just what is normality?
Here in NZ we have no known cases out in the general community for some weeks now, no restrictions on gatherings, no social distancing, and no masks. Only a small part of our economy and lifestyle is currently affected. But a big departure from previous normality, in that our border is effectively closed to all but returning kiwis, and they have to endure state custody for 14 plus days before release into the community. Our problem is how to exit this state, with minimal additional costs to our economy and well being.
Venetians currently are now enjoying their city as their own, not as a displaced minority in their own city. Similarly around the world many other tourist hot spots have had the degradation caused by unsustainable tourism growth paused. Time to reflect.
Lockdowns rapidly proved that a lot of face to face contact in centralised offices and on business trips was not needed and could be replaced by virtual meetings, thus reducing commuting travel and business air travel requirements substantiall at considerable benifit to lifestyles and to our environment,
This crisis has cruelly and brutaly laid bare shortcomings in public health provision, social service provision, and indeed core leadership competence in so many considered advanced economies.
So any new normality must be a substantially different normality to what we had before.


I've been to Venice 3 times and wouldn't want to live there, and that was more than 10 years ago, without stupid cruise liners entering the city. I've lived in Paris a couple of years and tourists weren't an issue, except if I had wanted to go up the Eiffel tower. This and museums should all go to an appointment system, it's common in Italy (to go up the tower in Pisa for example, and plenty of museums, churches, etc.) and works well.

Tourism is the livelihood of a lot of people, don't dismiss it so easily.

When I read on this forum that some members fly a hundred times or more in a year (for business), yeah, that's a bit crazy, even if I'm jealous !

BTW, NZ has let the filming crew for the Lord of the Ring TV series enter the country...

ltbewr wrote:
I have some questions to bring up as to a vaccine.

If someone had Covid-19 and still had antibodies, would it be necessary for them to get the vaccine ? Perhaps one would have to get the anti-body test and if that were true, others not exposed would get it.first.


They wouldn't be first in line that's for sure. More testing would probably be needed to answer that one. In fact it's unethical apparently to expose people to the virus, so that complicates testing.

ltbewr wrote:
Could some not be able to take the vaccine as have auto-immune diseases, allergies to some part of the contents ?


Yes, or be a pregnant woman, or a child, etc. Like many vaccines.

ltbewr wrote:
Will there be enough PPE, syringes and proper staffing to give it fast and correctly ?


Yes. But there won't be enough vaccine ! We're talking a few millions doses in 2020 even in the best scenario.

ltbewr wrote:
Will there be (mainly as to the USA) some kind of compensation fund and limits on lawsuits, perhaps requiring mandatory mediation for those who get bad reactions to the vaccine ?


You know your country best. I'm surprised there isn't already a 10 pages thing to sign before taking any vaccine.
New Technology is the name we give to stuff that doesn't work yet. Douglas Adams
 
olle
Posts: 2088
Joined: Tue Feb 06, 2007 3:38 am

Re: Covid 19 vaccine and return to normality?

Tue Jul 07, 2020 3:12 pm

Aesma wrote:
KFTG wrote:
The COVID-19 industrial complex and their allies in the media are hell bent on imposing another lockdown.
Amazon, et al. would like nothing more than to see every single brick and mortar retailer closed down.
The media would like nothing more than ever single American locked in their homes watching as much tee-vee and YouTube ads as possible.
It ain't happening.
Deaths are not spiking.
This thing is puttering out just like SARS did, albeit on a global scale.


Image

Also, there was no lockdown in the US. Some places did some things. Nothing concerted, nothing enforced, nothing coming from the top, no strategy. You can't "go back to lockdown" when there never was one to begin with.


If new cases send people to hospital we have a problem.

If not there might be an advantage minimize second wave.

Many countries showing lower numbers do that because of lockdown. The real experiment will be when leaving lockdown.

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