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COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q3 2020

Tue Jun 30, 2020 2:39 pm

Welcome to Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - Q3 2020. Please continue your discussion and to add your comments below.

Link to last thread:

viewtopic.php?f=11&t=1447023
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casinterest
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q3 2020

Tue Jun 30, 2020 4:26 pm

After all this time it looks like the GOP may be starting to understand that Masks do save lives.

https://www.politico.com/amp/news/2020/ ... ask-345275

That tension was apparent early Tuesday, when a traditionally friendly messenger targeted Trump with an appeal from the set of his favorite morning cable news show.

“I think that if the president wore one, it would just set a good example. He’d be a good role model. I don’t see any downside to the president wearing a mask in public,” said “Fox & Friends” co-host Steve Doocy during an interview with Ronna McDaniel, chair of the Republican National Committee.

Doocy went on to pitch the party chief an updated play on Trump’s signature campaign slogan. “‘MAGA’ should now stand for ‘Masks Are Great Again.’ Let me give you some marketing advice right there,” he told McDaniel.
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StarAC17
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q3 2020

Tue Jun 30, 2020 6:50 pm

casinterest wrote:
I think you are taking the wrong message. Social distancing is saving lives. The cities that finished their first bell are ok while in early phases of reopening, but there is still no herd immunity. at best 25% in NYC have been infected.


I don't see what it saves. These things aren't sustainable long term, even for medium term. People will want to see each other anyway, and inevitably will relax or get annoyed with wearing the muzzle. The only way it can save lives if you can drag it without significant impact on society until either mass vaccination has been completed or there are efficient treatment protocols. None of that is on the horizon. Hence - buckle up and hold the wheel tightly while going through the curve. The sooner you reach the herd immunity the less lasting damage you will incur, and the sooner things return to normal.


Public health officials do not care about the economy or the mental health effects, they only see that how they can save lives regardless of the side effects.

Even little inconveniences add up over time. A little inconvenience - is asking to wear the mask once or twice at most. But putting the muzzle on the whole society, the whole country until further notice is far from small inconvenience. We have seen a lot of mathematical models of COVID spread, but I have not seen anyone ever to be bothered with impact of the measures on the whole society - mental health issues, broken families, rising alcohol sales. And each day of the societies in this muzzle costs more than the previous.


I tend to agree with each individual regulation, I understand that masks make sense, I understand social distancing, I understand no big crowded events. I am just cynical of the governments ability to implement a lot of this competently.

However what I have seen and observed is that governments aren't going to put the freedom back into the individual's hands in anytime soon, public health officials really have no accountability to the voters. I could see these regulations in place until 2022 or longer and I am not joking about that. We have seen many rights taken away since 9/11 in terms of safety and very few have been restored.

Toronto just introduced mandatory masks with under 200 cases a day, deaths down, hospitalizations down. They say that it will be reviewed at the end of September, I am not betting on this being lifted until a vaccine and even then I'm not holding my breath that in this time in 2021 that anything has changed. Furthermore there are many doctors and infections disease specialists that don't necessarily agree with the ones advising the government.
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Dieuwer
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q3 2020

Tue Jun 30, 2020 7:16 pm

Do you think quarantines have a certain "Economic War" component to it?
 
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q3 2020

Tue Jun 30, 2020 7:41 pm

StarAC17 wrote:
casinterest wrote:
I think you are taking the wrong message. Social distancing is saving lives. The cities that finished their first bell are ok while in early phases of reopening, but there is still no herd immunity. at best 25% in NYC have been infected.


I don't see what it saves. These things aren't sustainable long term, even for medium term. People will want to see each other anyway, and inevitably will relax or get annoyed with wearing the muzzle. The only way it can save lives if you can drag it without significant impact on society until either mass vaccination has been completed or there are efficient treatment protocols. None of that is on the horizon. Hence - buckle up and hold the wheel tightly while going through the curve. The sooner you reach the herd immunity the less lasting damage you will incur, and the sooner things return to normal.


Public health officials do not care about the economy or the mental health effects, they only see that how they can save lives regardless of the side effects.

Even little inconveniences add up over time. A little inconvenience - is asking to wear the mask once or twice at most. But putting the muzzle on the whole society, the whole country until further notice is far from small inconvenience. We have seen a lot of mathematical models of COVID spread, but I have not seen anyone ever to be bothered with impact of the measures on the whole society - mental health issues, broken families, rising alcohol sales. And each day of the societies in this muzzle costs more than the previous.


I tend to agree with each individual regulation, I understand that masks make sense, I understand social distancing, I understand no big crowded events. I am just cynical of the governments ability to implement a lot of this competently.

However what I have seen and observed is that governments aren't going to put the freedom back into the individual's hands in anytime soon, public health officials really have no accountability to the voters. I could see these regulations in place until 2022 or longer and I am not joking about that. We have seen many rights taken away since 9/11 in terms of safety and very few have been restored.

Toronto just introduced mandatory masks with under 200 cases a day, deaths down, hospitalizations down. They say that it will be reviewed at the end of September, I am not betting on this being lifted until a vaccine and even then I'm not holding my breath that in this time in 2021 that anything has changed. Furthermore there are many doctors and infections disease specialists that don't necessarily agree with the ones advising the government.



Governments need to react safely and smartly . There is still a lot not known about COVID-19, but at this time what is obvious is that it is a lot easier to transmit than a lot of folks are letting on. Governments are asking people to wear masks so we can get the economy going again. At this time what is known is that with Masks transmission is greatly reduced. With Masks flights are occurring. With Masks Doctors appointments are being made. With Masks items are being manufactured. Until we have a good answer for what is possible with health-wise, we are better off working to live with it as long as we can, and keep the economy going. Masks are a part of that new normal.
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StarAC17
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q3 2020

Tue Jun 30, 2020 8:52 pm

casinterest wrote:
StarAC17 wrote:
casinterest wrote:
I think you are taking the wrong message. Social distancing is saving lives. The cities that finished their first bell are ok while in early phases of reopening, but there is still no herd immunity. at best 25% in NYC have been infected.


I don't see what it saves. These things aren't sustainable long term, even for medium term. People will want to see each other anyway, and inevitably will relax or get annoyed with wearing the muzzle. The only way it can save lives if you can drag it without significant impact on society until either mass vaccination has been completed or there are efficient treatment protocols. None of that is on the horizon. Hence - buckle up and hold the wheel tightly while going through the curve. The sooner you reach the herd immunity the less lasting damage you will incur, and the sooner things return to normal.


Public health officials do not care about the economy or the mental health effects, they only see that how they can save lives regardless of the side effects.

Even little inconveniences add up over time. A little inconvenience - is asking to wear the mask once or twice at most. But putting the muzzle on the whole society, the whole country until further notice is far from small inconvenience. We have seen a lot of mathematical models of COVID spread, but I have not seen anyone ever to be bothered with impact of the measures on the whole society - mental health issues, broken families, rising alcohol sales. And each day of the societies in this muzzle costs more than the previous.


I tend to agree with each individual regulation, I understand that masks make sense, I understand social distancing, I understand no big crowded events. I am just cynical of the governments ability to implement a lot of this competently.

However what I have seen and observed is that governments aren't going to put the freedom back into the individual's hands in anytime soon, public health officials really have no accountability to the voters. I could see these regulations in place until 2022 or longer and I am not joking about that. We have seen many rights taken away since 9/11 in terms of safety and very few have been restored.

Toronto just introduced mandatory masks with under 200 cases a day, deaths down, hospitalizations down. They say that it will be reviewed at the end of September, I am not betting on this being lifted until a vaccine and even then I'm not holding my breath that in this time in 2021 that anything has changed. Furthermore there are many doctors and infections disease specialists that don't necessarily agree with the ones advising the government.



Governments need to react safely and smartly . There is still a lot not known about COVID-19, but at this time what is obvious is that it is a lot easier to transmit than a lot of folks are letting on. Governments are asking people to wear masks so we can get the economy going again. At this time what is known is that with Masks transmission is greatly reduced. With Masks flights are occurring. With Masks Doctors appointments are being made. With Masks items are being manufactured. Until we have a good answer for what is possible with health-wise, we are better off working to live with it as long as we can, and keep the economy going. Masks are a part of that new normal.


So I rationally understand this at the present moment. What I do fear that in 2 to 5 years when Covid19 has been dealt with and controlled that we will still have to wear them in public because they are technically always safer but not necessarily a huge benefit.

I think like many things what is to be a short term measure will become a long term one. This event has made me much more of a libertarian while understanding that this crisis does require some hard measures but I really don't like the government controlling absolutely everything.

Dieuwer wrote:
Do you think quarantines have a certain "Economic War" component to it?


I don't think intentionally (it could be) I think that there are a lot of people who are professional who are inconvenienced but can work at home and their pay and lives are largely unchanged aren't really hurting.

The people who followed their passions and decided to get into the performing arts, into fitness, open gyms, restaurants and yoga studios (this hits home for me the most, also you can't to hot yoga in a mask) have been hit unfairly just because of the industry they chose. Not all of these people are living paycheck to paycheck and some have built some pretty solid and profitable businesses and they can't operate but and Amazon, Costco, and Wal-mart can. The latter companies need the money the least.
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Dieuwer
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q3 2020

Tue Jun 30, 2020 10:48 pm

marcelh wrote:


Europe and others can simply revoke the patent protection and allow European manufacturers to copy the drug.
 
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q3 2020

Wed Jul 01, 2020 1:58 am

Dieuwer wrote:
marcelh wrote:


Europe and others can simply revoke the patent protection and allow European manufacturers to copy the drug.

Why would Europe need the drug, have they not re-opened because they flattened the curve and their R numbers are at WHO numbers?
Also even though the UK said they would use it the EU and WHO have been out front advising against its use, saying more trials were needed?

As for breaking the patents, as the Daily Mail version of the article says, UK companies are against such a policy because countries will do the same to their product.
UK scientist are at the forefront of producing a vaccine, if they break this patent they can expect India who does not honor a number of them now and even companies in the USA to follow suit. I guess a economic decision will have to be made on which is the bigger bang, an existing drug that helps or a vaccine that cures / immunizes the patient.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/articl ... sivir.html
 
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q3 2020

Wed Jul 01, 2020 3:40 am

I was talking to a friend in Cali Columbia, and he's and his friends are convinced that COVID-19 is a hoax. I know this man for three years, and
while he can be a drama queen, i thought he was intelligent enough until he told me this. He says it's just people nerves and fear reacting.

even when I told him my neighbor died of this. He didn't seem to believe me. This is a first for me, knowing someone who doesn't believe this.
It's like walking into someone who doesn't believe the moon landing happened. You don't know what to make of them. Does anybody else know someone like this?
 
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Veigar
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q3 2020

Wed Jul 01, 2020 4:51 am

DLFREEBIRD wrote:
I was talking to a friend in Cali Columbia, and he's and his friends are convinced that COVID-19 is a hoax. I know this man for three years, and
while he can be a drama queen, i thought he was intelligent enough until he told me this. He says it's just people nerves and fear reacting.

even when I told him my neighbor died of this. He didn't seem to believe me. This is a first for me, knowing someone who doesn't believe this.
It's like walking into someone who doesn't believe the moon landing happened. You don't know what to make of them. Does anybody else know someone like this?


I know several. It's whatever. Personally I think covid is extremely blown out of proportion as to how "deadly" it is (we were being warned months ago that merely setting foot outside would get you infected) to mass gatherings in the thousands for political protests that were apparently "okayed by health experts"...now back to covid fear mongering.. I can see where they're coming from.

Look, I don't think the virus is a hoax obviously, but I think that if you sanitize yourself (as you should regardless of any ongoing pandemics) and continue to wear masks, you'll be fine.
 
marcelh
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q3 2020

Wed Jul 01, 2020 5:22 am

Dieuwer wrote:
marcelh wrote:


Europe and others can simply revoke the patent protection and allow European manufacturers to copy the drug.

Sure......
 
flyguy89
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q3 2020

Wed Jul 01, 2020 5:51 am

marcelh wrote:

Well, we are the hardest struck nation by the virus with the largest case and death count, so makes sense.

And to be clear, the purchase was for their production stock for July and most of August and September, so not their neccesarily "all the drug."
 
tommy1808
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q3 2020

Wed Jul 01, 2020 8:48 am

marcelh wrote:
Dieuwer wrote:
marcelh wrote:


Europe and others can simply revoke the patent protection and allow European manufacturers to copy the drug.

Sure......


The law to force licensing is on the book for almost 15 years.

best regards
Thomas
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dtw2hyd
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q3 2020

Wed Jul 01, 2020 11:55 am

Dieuwer wrote:
marcelh wrote:


Europe and others can simply revoke the patent protection and allow European manufacturers to copy the drug.


US is buying first 140,000 doses (28,000 people). It is not buying entire stock and it cannot at $3,200 per person.

Assuming this drug works, there will be side effect, people in US will stop following preventive guidelines and expect an insurance covered drug to take care of them, increasing infections.
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casinterest
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q3 2020

Wed Jul 01, 2020 12:51 pm

StarAC17 wrote:

So I rationally understand this at the present moment. What I do fear that in 2 to 5 years when Covid19 has been dealt with and controlled that we will still have to wear them in public because they are technically always safer but not necessarily a huge benefit.

I think like many things what is to be a short term measure will become a long term one. This event has made me much more of a libertarian while understanding that this crisis does require some hard measures but I really don't like the government controlling absolutely everything.



Most precautions are not being passed by law. Everything so far has been done by executive order. Most of the laws I have seen have a sundown where they must be continued. I think your fears are a bit misguided on this.
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trpmb6
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q3 2020

Wed Jul 01, 2020 4:09 pm

Two articles I wanted to share.

First one, talks about superspreaders and why most people don't actually spread the virus, but that one person may end up infecting many people at once. Its not clear why, but it appears some people, likely someone with an already weakened immune system, end up with much higher virus numbers in their body than most others. Healthy people may get infected, show little to no symptoms and not spread the virus to anyone else. This article also talks about how circumstances can influence the spread. If you have a superspreader who works as a bus driver, or a nursing home worker, you're in for a world of hurt. https://www.nytimes.com/2020/06/30/scie ... reads.html

Second one, talks about how the virus actually infects the body on a cellular level. I'll let the article speak for itself:

Researchers exploring the interaction between the coronavirus and its hosts have discovered that when the SARS-CoV-2 virus infects a human cell, it sets off a ghoulish transformation. Obeying instructions from the virus, the newly infected cell sprouts multi-pronged tentacles studded with viral particles.

These disfigured zombie cells appear to be using those streaming filaments, or filopodia, to reach still-healthy neighboring cells. The protuberances appear to bore into the cells’ bodies and inject their viral venom directly into those cells’ genetic command centers — thus creating another zombie.



While that does sound scary and alarming, it is a key piece of research that will help in treating covid19 patients:

The scientists also believe they have identified several drugs that could disrupt the viral takeover of cells and slow the process by which covid-19 takes hold. These compounds, many of which were designed as cancer treatments, seem likely to work because they block the chemical signals that activate filopodia production in the first place.

Among the seven drugs they identified as potentially useful against covid-19 are Silmitasertib, a still-experimental drug in early clinical trials as a treatment for bile duct cancer and a form of childhood brain cancer; ralimetinib, a cancer drug developed by Eli Lilly; and gilteritinib (marketed as Xospata), a drug in use already to treat acute myeloid leukemia.



It could be that the higher viral loads in superspreaders noted in the first article are related to the way that covid19 infects your cells and tries to replicate it self. It may be that the cells in healthier individuals don't produce these filopodia as quickly, slowing the spread and giving the body more time to react. I'm only speculating here, so maybe someone from that field can connect the dots better than I.
 
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casinterest
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q3 2020

Wed Jul 01, 2020 4:19 pm

trpmb6 wrote:
Two articles I wanted to share.

First one, talks about superspreaders and why most people don't actually spread the virus, but that one person may end up infecting many people at once. Its not clear why, but it appears some people, likely someone with an already weakened immune system, end up with much higher virus numbers in their body than most others. Healthy people may get infected, show little to no symptoms and not spread the virus to anyone else. This article also talks about how circumstances can influence the spread. If you have a superspreader who works as a bus driver, or a nursing home worker, you're in for a world of hurt. https://www.nytimes.com/2020/06/30/scie ... reads.html

Second one, talks about how the virus actually infects the body on a cellular level. I'll let the article speak for itself:

Researchers exploring the interaction between the coronavirus and its hosts have discovered that when the SARS-CoV-2 virus infects a human cell, it sets off a ghoulish transformation. Obeying instructions from the virus, the newly infected cell sprouts multi-pronged tentacles studded with viral particles.

These disfigured zombie cells appear to be using those streaming filaments, or filopodia, to reach still-healthy neighboring cells. The protuberances appear to bore into the cells’ bodies and inject their viral venom directly into those cells’ genetic command centers — thus creating another zombie.



While that does sound scary and alarming, it is a key piece of research that will help in treating covid19 patients:



Well this is why planes,trains, buses , theaters, bars,cubicle farms, amusement parks , and restaurants are bad news for now.. Too many people staying near a super spreader for too long is dangerous.
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Francoflier
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q3 2020

Wed Jul 01, 2020 4:24 pm

Here's another study, from Sweden, that seems to show that the disease is much more prevalent than thought, meaning more people are already somewhat immune to it:

https://www.bbc.com/news/health-53248660

The fact that people have been exposed to it already does not necessarily mean that they can't catch it again or transmit it, but in any case, previous exposure should reduce the severity of symptoms in case of re-infection and thus decrease the likelihood of further transmission.

Speaking about Sweden, for all the flak they received for their approach, their death rate is plummeting despite a relatively stable number of new cases.
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casinterest
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q3 2020

Wed Jul 01, 2020 5:01 pm

Francoflier wrote:
Here's another study, from Sweden, that seems to show that the disease is much more prevalent than thought, meaning more people are already somewhat immune to it:

https://www.bbc.com/news/health-53248660

The fact that people have been exposed to it already does not necessarily mean that they can't catch it again or transmit it, but in any case, previous exposure should reduce the severity of symptoms in case of re-infection and thus decrease the likelihood of further transmission.

Speaking about Sweden, for all the flak they received for their approach, their death rate is plummeting despite a relatively stable number of new cases.


It is not whether it is more prevalent, but rather whether T Cells may provide immunity in some folks, which means some people , even without antibodies are able to kill it off.
From the article.

This doesn't necessarily get us any closer to herd immunity, though, according to assistant professor Marcus Buggert, one of the study's authors.

More analysis needs to be done to understand whether these T-cells provide "sterilising immunity", meaning they completely block the virus, or whether they might protect an individual from getting sick but not stop them from carrying the virus and transmitting it.



A lot of this still goes back to how much you are exposed to a virus. Most of us can fight off small amounts of a virus, even if our body is slow to recognize the threat, , but at some point, we either win the battle, or due to compromised immune systems, slow response, the virus gets a good enough hold to become a problem
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q3 2020

Wed Jul 01, 2020 5:25 pm

Veigar wrote:
DLFREEBIRD wrote:
I was talking to a friend in Cali Columbia, and he's and his friends are convinced that COVID-19 is a hoax. I know this man for three years, and
while he can be a drama queen, i thought he was intelligent enough until he told me this. He says it's just people nerves and fear reacting.

even when I told him my neighbor died of this. He didn't seem to believe me. This is a first for me, knowing someone who doesn't believe this.
It's like walking into someone who doesn't believe the moon landing happened. You don't know what to make of them. Does anybody else know someone like this?


I know several. It's whatever. Personally I think covid is extremely blown out of proportion as to how "deadly" it is (we were being warned months ago that merely setting foot outside would get you infected) to mass gatherings in the thousands for political protests that were apparently "okayed by health experts"...now back to covid fear mongering.. I can see where they're coming from.

Look, I don't think the virus is a hoax obviously, but I think that if you sanitize yourself (as you should regardless of any ongoing pandemics) and continue to wear masks, you'll be fine.


It’s not overblown, especially for people who’re compromised or caring for an elderly person like me. A pathogen that’s killed more Americans than Vietnam and several other wars combined is a very serious emergency. The fact remains that 130,000 people have died within a few months. The casual, no big deal attitude, is actually causing it to spread. You should be thankful that you have the luxury of treating this as overblown fear mongering, because for some, it’s truly a life or death matter.
 
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CitizenJustin
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q3 2020

Wed Jul 01, 2020 5:30 pm

DLFREEBIRD wrote:
I was talking to a friend in Cali Columbia, and he's and his friends are convinced that COVID-19 is a hoax. I know this man for three years, and
while he can be a drama queen, i thought he was intelligent enough until he told me this. He says it's just people nerves and fear reacting.

even when I told him my neighbor died of this. He didn't seem to believe me. This is a first for me, knowing someone who doesn't believe this.
It's like walking into someone who doesn't believe the moon landing happened. You don't know what to make of them. Does anybody else know someone like this?


I know several people who think Covid19 is man made. Never mind the fact that every scientist on earth has viewed this thing and it’s apparently rather obvious if a virus is manufactured. They prefer living in a bad Hollywood movie plot than actual reality. Besides, if it was man made, whats the goal? It’s not deadly enough to make a dent in the world population.
 
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casinterest
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q3 2020

Wed Jul 01, 2020 5:45 pm

CitizenJustin wrote:
DLFREEBIRD wrote:
I was talking to a friend in Cali Columbia, and he's and his friends are convinced that COVID-19 is a hoax. I know this man for three years, and
while he can be a drama queen, i thought he was intelligent enough until he told me this. He says it's just people nerves and fear reacting.

even when I told him my neighbor died of this. He didn't seem to believe me. This is a first for me, knowing someone who doesn't believe this.
It's like walking into someone who doesn't believe the moon landing happened. You don't know what to make of them. Does anybody else know someone like this?


I know several people who think Covid19 is man made. Never mind the fact that every scientist on earth has viewed this thing and it’s apparently rather obvious if a virus is manufactured. They prefer living in a bad Hollywood movie plot than actual reality. Besides, if it was man made, whats the goal? It’s not deadly enough to make a dent in the world population.



I know quite a few folks that think it is a hoax. They usually follow dubious right wing news sites.
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flyguy89
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q3 2020

Wed Jul 01, 2020 5:45 pm

Francoflier wrote:
Here's another study, from Sweden, that seems to show that the disease is much more prevalent than thought, meaning more people are already somewhat immune to it:

https://www.bbc.com/news/health-53248660

The fact that people have been exposed to it already does not necessarily mean that they can't catch it again or transmit it, but in any case, previous exposure should reduce the severity of symptoms in case of re-infection and thus decrease the likelihood of further transmission.

Speaking about Sweden, for all the flak they received for their approach, their death rate is plummeting despite a relatively stable number of new cases.

Piggybacking off this, there was also a similar German study also indicating exposure to common cold coronaviruses may provide some COVID immunity:
https://reason.com/2020/07/01/covid-19- ... w-studies/

Very preliminary research obviously, but if it bears out, obviously good news.
 
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c933103
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q3 2020

Wed Jul 01, 2020 7:51 pm

CitizenJustin wrote:
I know several people who think Covid19 is man made. Never mind the fact that every scientist on earth has viewed this thing and it’s apparently rather obvious if a virus is manufactured. They prefer living in a bad Hollywood movie plot than actual reality. Besides, if it was man made, whats the goal? It’s not deadly enough to make a dent in the world population.

I don't think it's that obvious. I myself haven't decided my opinion on the matter yet, but many of those evidences seems to rely on either genetic analysis with respect to its similarity with another virus supposedly from nature and is announced by a lab in Wuhan after the start of the epidemic, or from indirect evidences.
The animal virus in question, the RaTG13, have been said as a bat coronavirus found in China from year 2013, however it was only announced in 2020 January. It's the closest virus we know to the SARS-CoV-2, although last I checked there are still conflicted opinion on whether SARS-CoV-2 actually came from RaTG13 because of differences in S-protein, but that's besides the point. The point is, some of those analysis that claim to debunk the manmade virus theory are basing their claims on its genetic similarity with RaTG13, yet given the time and place they announced the genome of RaTG13, that cannot remove all doubt when those analysis take the natural origin of RaTG13 as granted and as the basis of those analysis.
As for those indirect evidences, like "if it's manmade then it should cause more damage/hurt China less/China should be wise enough to have their own.medicine before releasing/China wouldn't release it on its own land if it's intentional/China wouldn't announce it", remember, 1. man-made virus ≠ killer virus , 2. man-made virus appeared ≠ it have been intentionally released. First of all, in laboratory, man-made virus have already been produced for many different purposes in scientific researches. Even if it is really man-made, it could be for some other purposes, and then even if it is really man-made for the purpose of being a weapon, no one say its function must be to kill people. It can be to disrupt or obstruct operation of target society, or it could even be to target its own population, changing the population balance and increase percentage of working population. These are all just fictional possibility that I don't think they are the case here, but ot's not impossoble that someone might make a virus for some other trivial purposes before it enter the population. Secondly, no one said a virus is man-made mean they released it intentionally with the intention to hurt the place it release. It could be accidentally like many zombie apocalypse movie. The virus can also be incomplete or some sort of unwanted failed samples. In fact the leaking of virus from laboratory have happened in China before, like SARS-CoV-1, some of those small scale outbreaks occurred after the end of initial outbreak were caused by problem in operation of relevant laboratory of the virus. In that casr the virus being handled was a natural one, but who knows about this one.
Also, another thing is that, because the initial outbreak location was in China, many analysis on the origin of the virus are participated or lead by scientist from China or those that have long term business relationship with China. It's not a reason to doubt their professional quality because of their national origin but that would offer some incentives for them to selectively presented the story, as there are also some other scientists from other nations that have presented alternative version of analysis, but of course those alternative version of analysis could also subject to same type of selectivity.
It's pointless to attempt winning internet debate.
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olle
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q3 2020

Wed Jul 01, 2020 10:34 pm

Francoflier wrote:
Here's another study, from Sweden, that seems to show that the disease is much more prevalent than thought, meaning more people are already somewhat immune to it:

https://www.bbc.com/news/health-53248660

The fact that people have been exposed to it already does not necessarily mean that they can't catch it again or transmit it, but in any case, previous exposure should reduce the severity of symptoms in case of re-infection and thus decrease the likelihood of further transmission.

Speaking about Sweden, for all the flak they received for their approach, their death rate is plummeting despite a relatively stable number of new cases.



One of stockholm hospital today did have 0 cases of corona in its intensive care unit.

Number of death the last week is in line or below the numbers shown the last 5 years.

Things slowly getting back to normal after a terrible period.

The extreme numbers of new cases is because the testing of otherwise healthy population has exploded. This does not mean that number of intensive care cases going up but fast like in stockholm region fast go down.

Sweden now prepares for second wave and try to learn from some of the misstakes special nursing homes for older people.

I do not think we will close any parts of sweden during the second wave.
 
Jalap
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q3 2020

Wed Jul 01, 2020 11:54 pm

Francoflier wrote:
Here's another study, from Sweden, that seems to show that the disease is much more prevalent than thought, meaning more people are already somewhat immune to it:

https://www.bbc.com/news/health-53248660

Same was in Belgian news yesterday.
Antibody counts:

End March: 2,9%
Mid April: 6%
Mid May: 6,9%
Mid June: 5,5%

So it seems the antibodies fade away. Fortunately there's also the protecting T-cells, which aren't as easy to test and count.
We can only hope that indeed more people have been infected than what the antibodies counts suggest. The more people that were infected, the lower the mortality rate really is. Based on antibodies testing in May, mortality rate is 1%. More widespread past infections would be good news, but a lower than 0,5% mortality rate probably remains very unlikely.
 
flyguy89
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q3 2020

Thu Jul 02, 2020 1:26 am

Below was another interesting piece I came across suggesting that the virus may start to burn out at a 20% infection rate vs. the 60-70% rate often cited for achieving herd immunity.

https://theconversation.com/coronavirus ... ted-141584

There's a bit of research backing it up, but still more speculative at this point.
 
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Francoflier
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q3 2020

Thu Jul 02, 2020 3:20 am

flyguy89 wrote:
Below was another interesting piece I came across suggesting that the virus may start to burn out at a 20% infection rate vs. the 60-70% rate often cited for achieving herd immunity.

https://theconversation.com/coronavirus ... ted-141584

There's a bit of research backing it up, but still more speculative at this point.


This would explain why some places which were badly affected initially are not seeing a resurgence despite the easing of restrictions, such as large European cities or the East coast US.
In fact, cases in NYC are still dropping despite the large protest-related gatherings which are likely partially to blame for the spikes in other states. Overall exposure in NYC is estimated to be at or above 20%.

It might tie in with the mention in your earlier post that previous exposure to other common coronaviruses might give a degree of pre-built immunity.
I'll do my own airline. With Blackjack. And hookers. In fact, forget the airline.
 
StarAC17
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q3 2020

Thu Jul 02, 2020 4:34 am

casinterest wrote:
StarAC17 wrote:

So I rationally understand this at the present moment. What I do fear that in 2 to 5 years when Covid19 has been dealt with and controlled that we will still have to wear them in public because they are technically always safer but not necessarily a huge benefit.

I think like many things what is to be a short term measure will become a long term one. This event has made me much more of a libertarian while understanding that this crisis does require some hard measures but I really don't like the government controlling absolutely everything.



Most precautions are not being passed by law. Everything so far has been done by executive order. Most of the laws I have seen have a sundown where they must be continued. I think your fears are a bit misguided on this.


I will admit to being frustrated yesterday and have come around on this. Masks are better than lock-downs.

casinterest wrote:
Francoflier wrote:
Here's another study, from Sweden, that seems to show that the disease is much more prevalent than thought, meaning more people are already somewhat immune to it:

https://www.bbc.com/news/health-53248660

The fact that people have been exposed to it already does not necessarily mean that they can't catch it again or transmit it, but in any case, previous exposure should reduce the severity of symptoms in case of re-infection and thus decrease the likelihood of further transmission.

Speaking about Sweden, for all the flak they received for their approach, their death rate is plummeting despite a relatively stable number of new cases.


It is not whether it is more prevalent, but rather whether T Cells may provide immunity in some folks, which means some people , even without antibodies are able to kill it off.
From the article.

This doesn't necessarily get us any closer to herd immunity, though, according to assistant professor Marcus Buggert, one of the study's authors.

More analysis needs to be done to understand whether these T-cells provide "sterilising immunity", meaning they completely block the virus, or whether they might protect an individual from getting sick but not stop them from carrying the virus and transmitting it.



A lot of this still goes back to how much you are exposed to a virus. Most of us can fight off small amounts of a virus, even if our body is slow to recognize the threat, , but at some point, we either win the battle, or due to compromised immune systems, slow response, the virus gets a good enough hold to become a problem


Doc has made some posts in other threads about this and from trials with the cold causing coronaviruses where they actually infected them with the viruses that they were deemed to have. Viral replication was noticed but the patients either didn't get sick or were mildly sick, no word on if they were very contagious. They could figure this out by intentionally infecting recovered patients or ones on vaccine trials (that would speed those up). However this is not ethical as the virus is too deadly and unpredictable.

I have read some articles about respiratory infections and while we consider our lungs to be inside our bodies which they are they are technically external infections. In the sense that there is no barrier from the outside world to your lungs and limited interaction with blood where antibodies are found (perhaps not as many antibodies are needed) where T-cells and cytokines would. Antibodies play a role but may be not as significant as one in fighting a respiratory infection as cell mediated immunity might.

Sterilizing immunity usually is from viruses that attack the whole body such as the Measles, Chickenpox, Hepatitis, Ebola. Granted I could be wrong on this.
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tommy1808
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q3 2020

Thu Jul 02, 2020 5:15 am

Francoflier wrote:
flyguy89 wrote:
Below was another interesting piece I came across suggesting that the virus may start to burn out at a 20% infection rate vs. the 60-70% rate often cited for achieving herd immunity.

https://theconversation.com/coronavirus ... ted-141584

There's a bit of research backing it up, but still more speculative at this point.


This would explain why some places which were badly affected initially are not seeing a resurgence despite the easing of restrictions, such as large European cities or the East coast US.
In fact, cases in NYC are still dropping despite the large protest-related gatherings which are likely partially to blame for the spikes in other states. Overall exposure in NYC is estimated to be at or above 20%.

It might tie in with the mention in your earlier post that previous exposure to other common coronaviruses might give a degree of pre-built immunity.


If 20% would be enough for herd immunity, prison populations would have never gotten to 54%.

best regards
Thomas
Well, there is prophecy in the bible after all: 2 Timothy 3:1-6
 
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Francoflier
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q3 2020

Thu Jul 02, 2020 5:36 am

tommy1808 wrote:
If 20% would be enough for herd immunity, prison populations would have never gotten to 54%.

best regards
Thomas


You can't compare the progression of a viral outbreak in a small and extremely confined and crowded environment to its progression in society at large.
In the former, it would have time to propagate much further into the population before the attenuating effects of herd immunity would be felt.
Herd immunity assumes that a proportion of the population becomes cured (and develops enough antibodies) to prevent the virus from effectively spreading further. That doesn't work when everybody becomes sick in very quick succession and all are contagious at the same time before anyone becomes immune.
I'll do my own airline. With Blackjack. And hookers. In fact, forget the airline.
 
tommy1808
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q3 2020

Thu Jul 02, 2020 6:03 am

Francoflier wrote:
tommy1808 wrote:
If 20% would be enough for herd immunity, prison populations would have never gotten to 54%.

best regards
Thomas


You can't compare the progression of a viral outbreak in a small and extremely confined and crowded environment to its progression in society at large.
In the former, it would have time to propagate much further into the population before the attenuating effects of herd immunity would be felt.
Herd immunity assumes that a proportion of the population becomes cured (and develops enough antibodies) to prevent the virus from effectively spreading further. That doesn't work when everybody becomes sick in very quick succession and all are contagious at the same time before anyone becomes immune.


Convenient theory daily .....
Herd immunity at 20% is a non-starter. Observed R unopposed is ~3, 1 in 5 people immune can not possibly suppress that to below 1. .....

best regards
Thomas
Well, there is prophecy in the bible after all: 2 Timothy 3:1-6
 
olle
Posts: 2106
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q3 2020

Thu Jul 02, 2020 7:56 am

Francoflier wrote:
flyguy89 wrote:
Below was another interesting piece I came across suggesting that the virus may start to burn out at a 20% infection rate vs. the 60-70% rate often cited for achieving herd immunity.

https://theconversation.com/coronavirus ... ted-141584

There's a bit of research backing it up, but still more speculative at this point.


This would explain why some places which were badly affected initially are not seeing a resurgence despite the easing of restrictions, such as large European cities or the East coast US.
In fact, cases in NYC are still dropping despite the large protest-related gatherings which are likely partially to blame for the spikes in other states. Overall exposure in NYC is estimated to be at or above 20%.

It might tie in with the mention in your earlier post that previous exposure to other common coronaviruses might give a degree of pre-built immunity.



This seems to be the case in stockholm.
 
olle
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q3 2020

Thu Jul 02, 2020 8:01 am

tommy1808 wrote:
Francoflier wrote:
tommy1808 wrote:
If 20% would be enough for herd immunity, prison populations would have never gotten to 54%.

best regards
Thomas


You can't compare the progression of a viral outbreak in a small and extremely confined and crowded environment to its progression in society at large.
In the former, it would have time to propagate much further into the population before the attenuating effects of herd immunity would be felt.
Herd immunity assumes that a proportion of the population becomes cured (and develops enough antibodies) to prevent the virus from effectively spreading further. That doesn't work when everybody becomes sick in very quick succession and all are contagious at the same time before anyone becomes immune.


Convenient theory daily .....
Herd immunity at 20% is a non-starter. Observed R unopposed is ~3, 1 in 5 people immune can not possibly suppress that to below 1. .....

best regards
Thomas


20% means often that middle class and upperclass in their houses working from home is excluded. 20% means often much higher number within worker class forced to be exposed in crowded areas. Me and my colleges has not been outside our houses since march and that is in stockholm area until today when I drive to my appartment in spain.
 
tommy1808
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q3 2020

Thu Jul 02, 2020 8:39 am

olle wrote:
tommy1808 wrote:
Francoflier wrote:

You can't compare the progression of a viral outbreak in a small and extremely confined and crowded environment to its progression in society at large.
In the former, it would have time to propagate much further into the population before the attenuating effects of herd immunity would be felt.
Herd immunity assumes that a proportion of the population becomes cured (and develops enough antibodies) to prevent the virus from effectively spreading further. That doesn't work when everybody becomes sick in very quick succession and all are contagious at the same time before anyone becomes immune.


Convenient theory daily .....
Herd immunity at 20% is a non-starter. Observed R unopposed is ~3, 1 in 5 people immune can not possibly suppress that to below 1. .....

best regards
Thomas


20% means often that middle class and upperclass in their houses working from home is excluded. 20% means often much higher number within worker class forced to be exposed in crowded areas. Me and my colleges has not been outside our houses since march and that is in stockholm area until today when I drive to my appartment in spain.


So 20% with indefinate lockdown..... that is not Herd immunity, that is management.

Best regards
Thomas
Well, there is prophecy in the bible after all: 2 Timothy 3:1-6
 
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scbriml
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q3 2020

Thu Jul 02, 2020 8:54 am

StarAC17 wrote:
I will admit to being frustrated yesterday and have come around on this. Masks are better than lock-downs.


Even Trum now thinks face masks are a good idea, though, of course, his reasoning is all about him.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-53258792
US President Donald Trump, long opposed to wearing a face covering in public, says he is "all for masks" and they make him look like the Lone Ranger.

Mr Trump also maintained that face coverings do not need to become mandatory to curb Covid-19's spread.

He again predicted the infection would "disappear," as the US hit a new record high of 52,000 virus cases in a day.


Lone Ranger? :banghead:
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olle
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q3 2020

Thu Jul 02, 2020 11:05 am

tommy1808 wrote:
olle wrote:
tommy1808 wrote:

Convenient theory daily .....
Herd immunity at 20% is a non-starter. Observed R unopposed is ~3, 1 in 5 people immune can not possibly suppress that to below 1. .....

best regards
Thomas


20% means often that middle class and upperclass in their houses working from home is excluded. 20% means often much higher number within worker class forced to be exposed in crowded areas. Me and my colleges has not been outside our houses since march and that is in stockholm area until today when I drive to my appartment in spain.


So 20% with indefinate lockdown..... that is not Herd immunity, that is management.

Best regards
Thomas



Of course it is management. Closing doen 100% is managing. Not doing so the same.

Management is to try to understand risk, hopefully based on experiences and then throw the dice.

Norway threw the dice on locking down. They now will be locked down until there is a vaccine.

Or doing like the other extreme sweden calculating that we cannot be locked down until 2021 and then keep things up as much as possible.

But it is all management.
 
KFTG
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q3 2020

Thu Jul 02, 2020 1:18 pm

Suicides way up.
+18% in March, +29% in April, +42% in May.
At least Karen feels safe.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2 ... -overdose/

And those are just USA numbers...
 
PPVRA
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q3 2020

Thu Jul 02, 2020 1:42 pm

olle wrote:
tommy1808 wrote:
Francoflier wrote:

You can't compare the progression of a viral outbreak in a small and extremely confined and crowded environment to its progression in society at large.
In the former, it would have time to propagate much further into the population before the attenuating effects of herd immunity would be felt.
Herd immunity assumes that a proportion of the population becomes cured (and develops enough antibodies) to prevent the virus from effectively spreading further. That doesn't work when everybody becomes sick in very quick succession and all are contagious at the same time before anyone becomes immune.


Convenient theory daily .....
Herd immunity at 20% is a non-starter. Observed R unopposed is ~3, 1 in 5 people immune can not possibly suppress that to below 1. .....

best regards
Thomas


20% means often that middle class and upperclass in their houses working from home is excluded. 20% means often much higher number within worker class forced to be exposed in crowded areas. Me and my colleges has not been outside our houses since march and that is in stockholm area until today when I drive to my appartment in spain.


If immunity builds in the portion of the population most likely to catch and spread, that should help reduce R0 a bit. This may be one of the problems with assuming homogeneous mixing of the population in epidemiological models.
"If goods do not cross borders, soldiers will" - Frederic Bastiat
 
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casinterest
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q3 2020

Thu Jul 02, 2020 1:57 pm

PPVRA wrote:
olle wrote:
tommy1808 wrote:

Convenient theory daily .....
Herd immunity at 20% is a non-starter. Observed R unopposed is ~3, 1 in 5 people immune can not possibly suppress that to below 1. .....

best regards
Thomas


20% means often that middle class and upperclass in their houses working from home is excluded. 20% means often much higher number within worker class forced to be exposed in crowded areas. Me and my colleges has not been outside our houses since march and that is in stockholm area until today when I drive to my appartment in spain.


If immunity builds in the portion of the population most likely to catch and spread, that should help reduce R0 a bit. This may be one of the problems with assuming homogeneous mixing of the population in epidemiological models.


This is very true, but at the end of the day, even if the spread is currently among the youth, it means the deadly waves will be hard to pick out, and may just be delayed if we let all the youngsters spread it. The folks most susceptible, are still shopping and in some cases trying to work. Sooner or later, the Doctor, nurse, grocery cashier, barista, restaurant cook, delivery person will spread it.
Where ever you go, there you are.
 
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scbriml
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q3 2020

Thu Jul 02, 2020 1:58 pm

KFTG wrote:
Suicides way up.
+18% in March, +29% in April, +42% in May.
At least Karen feels safe.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2 ... -overdose/

And those are just USA numbers...


The article you linked doesn't seem to say what you think it does. :shakehead:

It's talking about drug overdoses, not suicides, and clearly says they're not all fatal. So we have no way of knowing how many of those were accidental overdoses rather than out and out suicide attempts. People spending a lot more time at home probably equates to more recreational and experimental use of drugs.

From the article:
Suspected overdoses nationally — not all of them fatal — jumped 18 percent in March compared with last year, 29 percent in April and 42 percent in May, according to the Overdose Detection Mapping Application Program, a federal initiative that collects data from ambulance teams, hospitals and police.
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KFTG
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q3 2020

Thu Jul 02, 2020 3:19 pm

An overdose is a suicide, IMO.
 
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casinterest
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q3 2020

Thu Jul 02, 2020 3:55 pm

Yesterday there were 50,000 new cases in the US.

Today Florida kicks it off with +10,000 cases and 63 deaths.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/usa/florida/


There is a big wave coming in the US, and the July 4 weekend may exacerbate it.
Where ever you go, there you are.
 
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scbriml
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q3 2020

Thu Jul 02, 2020 4:04 pm

KFTG wrote:
An overdose is a suicide, IMO.


What, even one you don't die from? Far from every overdose is an attempt to end one's life. :crazy:

Do you think it's suicide if an idiot manages to accidentally blow their brains out while cleaning their gun?

I suspect you're in a very small group that thinks that way.
Time flies like an arrow. Fruit flies like a banana!
There are 10 types of people in the World - those that understand binary and those that don't.
 
tommy1808
Posts: 12912
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q3 2020

Thu Jul 02, 2020 4:44 pm

scbriml wrote:
KFTG wrote:
An overdose is a suicide, IMO.


What, even one you don't die from? Far from every overdose is an attempt to end one's life. :crazy:


Well, conventional wisdom is that few suicide attempts are actually an attempt to end ones life...

Best regards
Thomas
Well, there is prophecy in the bible after all: 2 Timothy 3:1-6
 
KFTG
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q3 2020

Fri Jul 03, 2020 6:49 am

casinterest wrote:
There is a big wave coming in the US, and the July 4 weekend may exacerbate it.

And if there’s not, are you going to delete your account?
How many “wait two weeks” are we going to do? We’ve been hearing “check back in two weeks” for months now.
Deaths continue to fall.
This line of commentary is reaching its shelf life.

Image
 
tommy1808
Posts: 12912
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q3 2020

Fri Jul 03, 2020 7:31 am

KFTG wrote:
casinterest wrote:
There is a big wave coming in the US, and the July 4 weekend may exacerbate it.

And if there’s not, are you going to delete your account?
How many “wait two weeks” are we going to do? We’ve been hearing “check back in two weeks” for months now.
Deaths continue to fall.


a) they don´t continue to fall, that last bit of line is horizontal.
b) Deaths are consistent with a 2.5% fatality rate

also.... the data is more noisy than the nice smooth line from your graph:

Days are since state of Emergency was declared and datum is June 28th....

Image

Best regards
Thomas
Well, there is prophecy in the bible after all: 2 Timothy 3:1-6
 
olle
Posts: 2106
Joined: Tue Feb 06, 2007 3:38 am

Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q3 2020

Fri Jul 03, 2020 8:17 am

KFTG wrote:
casinterest wrote:
There is a big wave coming in the US, and the July 4 weekend may exacerbate it.

And if there’s not, are you going to delete your account?
How many “wait two weeks” are we going to do? We’ve been hearing “check back in two weeks” for months now.
Deaths continue to fall.
This line of commentary is reaching its shelf life.

Image


If the sickness is kept out of places with weak and sick people the conclusion might be when looking back that the right decision was to let the young and heal5hy be sick in order to protect the weak and sick.

Closing everything down like has happened in many countries might just make the second wave bigger and or create a lost generation of today’s young unable to create a life for themself like happened 10 years ago in Greece and Spain. If not handled well we will like have happened in for example Spain have a generation with big problem creating a life connected with drug miss usage, psychological problems etc that in the end is bigger threat then the COVID.
 
GDB
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q3 2020

Fri Jul 03, 2020 11:00 am

'Ah aint wearing no mask 'cos it's commie', only in, well you know where, the one state that likes to be 'the biggest' (and stupidest?).
If it wasn't for the risk they pose to vulnerable people, (not that they would include African Americans in that list), I'd say that 'em catch it, most of them are obese, let their fake god sort them out;
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/202 ... vid-battle
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