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KFTG
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q3 2020

Fri Jul 03, 2020 11:40 am

The lengths some will go to deny reality is truly stunning.
 
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scbriml
Posts: 19042
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q3 2020

Fri Jul 03, 2020 12:54 pm

GDB wrote:
'Ah aint wearing no mask 'cos it's commie', only in, well you know where, the one state that likes to be 'the biggest' (and stupidest?).
If it wasn't for the risk they pose to vulnerable people, (not that they would include African Americans in that list), I'd say that 'em catch it, most of them are obese, let their fake god sort them out;
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/202 ... vid-battle


You can't fix stupid.

I love this image, both Birx and Fauci's faces... :rotfl:

Image
Source: https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/202 ... vid-battle
Time flies like an arrow. Fruit flies like a banana!
There are 10 types of people in the World - those that understand binary and those that don't.
 
StarAC17
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q3 2020

Fri Jul 03, 2020 3:00 pm

CitizenJustin wrote:
DLFREEBIRD wrote:
I was talking to a friend in Cali Columbia, and he's and his friends are convinced that COVID-19 is a hoax. I know this man for three years, and
while he can be a drama queen, i thought he was intelligent enough until he told me this. He says it's just people nerves and fear reacting.

even when I told him my neighbor died of this. He didn't seem to believe me. This is a first for me, knowing someone who doesn't believe this.
It's like walking into someone who doesn't believe the moon landing happened. You don't know what to make of them. Does anybody else know someone like this?


I know several people who think Covid19 is man made. Never mind the fact that every scientist on earth has viewed this thing and it’s apparently rather obvious if a virus is manufactured. They prefer living in a bad Hollywood movie plot than actual reality. Besides, if it was man made, whats the goal? It’s not deadly enough to make a dent in the world population.


If it was man made then there likely would be an antiviral or vaccine that somebody has developed alongside the man-made virus to treat selected people.

Why can't people simply accept that this is a novel virus that happened to jump from animals to humans. Probably accelerated by the fact the humans without regard are destroying animal habitats left, right and centre increasing the risk that this happens more and more if humanity doesn't make an effort to change its ways on a global scale.

This is probably the shot across the bow, this virus probably has a sub 1% mortality in reality and will decline over time.

The one that has pandemic potential could have a 25% mortality rate which can kill a healthy 25 year old just as easily as an 85 year old in a long term care facility is probably coming.
Engineers Rule The World!!!!!
 
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casinterest
Posts: 11293
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q3 2020

Fri Jul 03, 2020 3:26 pm

KFTG wrote:
casinterest wrote:
There is a big wave coming in the US, and the July 4 weekend may exacerbate it.

And if there’s not, are you going to delete your account?
How many “wait two weeks” are we going to do? We’ve been hearing “check back in two weeks” for months now.
Deaths continue to fall.
This line of commentary is reaching its shelf life.

Image



Why would I delete my account ? Seriously?

Is This just airworthy99 with a new name?


We have already spiked the infections, the hospitals are filling up, and now death counts are rising all over. The only good thing about the current wave is that so far it is mostly the younger healthier folks initially getting sick. However after that, the immune compromised will be exposed as the rates around them rise.

Florida's 7 day average of deaths is turning upwards.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/usa/florida/

Georgia's is starting to turn as well.
https://dph.georgia.gov/covid-19-daily-status-report

Texas already turned.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/usa/texas/


Many of the states that are spiking are also starting to spike in hospitalizations and in deaths. As I have said before and will say it again. The lack of caring from certain people is going to kill a lot of innocent lives.
Where ever you go, there you are.
 
KFTG
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q3 2020

Fri Jul 03, 2020 4:19 pm

It's amazing that people won't admit what's in front of their damn eyes. For example the GA graph you offered for deaths INDICATES AN OBVIOUS TREND DOWN OVER TIME. AND YET YOU ARE COMPLETELY IGNORING IT. It's just craven.

I'll check back in two weeks.
Then I'll check back again two weeks after that.
And then again. And again. And again.
 
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casinterest
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q3 2020

Fri Jul 03, 2020 6:54 pm

KFTG wrote:
It's amazing that people won't admit what's in front of their damn eyes. For example the GA graph you offered for deaths INDICATES AN OBVIOUS TREND DOWN OVER TIME. AND YET YOU ARE COMPLETELY IGNORING IT. It's just craven.

I'll check back in two weeks.
Then I'll check back again two weeks after that.
And then again. And again. And again.



You didn't notice how GA is starting to report an uptick in their 14 day delayed window though. That is the kicker about Georgia. It takes them two weeks to catch up.

Hopefully the numbers will go down as we move on as more people wear masks, but for now with as many people prone to not wearing them, the cases will continue to skyrocket. Hopefully the deaths never approach the levels that they were in the beginning . But that is going to take the work of everyone to slow the spread. .
Where ever you go, there you are.
 
KFTG
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q3 2020

Fri Jul 03, 2020 7:45 pm

You keep ignoring trends, I'll keep mentioning them.

Death rate per positive case in Arizona has dropped from a late April high of 9.2% to under .5% now. But yeah, deaths finna surge!

Give me a break.
 
Hornberger
Posts: 39
Joined: Sat Feb 10, 2018 11:34 pm

Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q3 2020

Fri Jul 03, 2020 8:11 pm

KFTG wrote:
You keep ignoring trends, I'll keep mentioning them.

Death rate per positive case in Arizona has dropped from a late April high of 9.2% to under .5% now. But yeah, deaths finna surge!

Give me a break.

For the week ending 28 June, Arizona reported 246 deaths.
For the week ending 21 June, Arizona reported 148 deaths.

That is only 66% a increase in deaths. No trend there.

In Florida, the 7 -day average deaths was 30.7 deaths on 18 June (the lowest since 7 April).
Today it is 45.4 (the highest since 11 May).

That is only 47% a increase in deaths. No trend there.
 
melpax
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q3 2020

Sat Jul 04, 2020 11:22 am

Things getting worse in Melbourne. 108 new cases in Melbourne today, with 2 more postcode areas will be put into lockdown as of Midnight, so now 12 postcode areas across the Northern & Western suburbs have had lockdowns re-imposed. 9 Public housing towers have also been put into a hard lockdown for at least 5 days, with no one in or out, and police stationed on each floor of the towers....

https://www.theage.com.au/national/vict ... 5591r.html
Essendon - Whatever it takes......
 
PPVRA
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q3 2020

Sat Jul 04, 2020 5:09 pm

Individuals physically distanced before state mandates, slowing COVID-19 spread

Residents in all 25 of the U.S. counties hardest hit by COVID-19 began to limit their public movements six to 29 days before states implemented stay-at-home orders, according to Johns Hopkins University researchers.

https://www.eurekalert.org/pub_releases ... 063020.php
"If goods do not cross borders, soldiers will" - Frederic Bastiat
 
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casinterest
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q3 2020

Sun Jul 05, 2020 6:40 pm

PPVRA wrote:
Individuals physically distanced before state mandates, slowing COVID-19 spread

Residents in all 25 of the U.S. counties hardest hit by COVID-19 began to limit their public movements six to 29 days before states implemented stay-at-home orders, according to Johns Hopkins University researchers.

https://www.eurekalert.org/pub_releases ... 063020.php



And this is why the reopen folks don't get it. Private companies are not going to bring employees back to offices, and parents aren't sending kids back to school until we have some good answers for what is happening.

The current infections are trending towards the younger crowd. That is fine and dandy ,but if we force the economy open , people are still not going to go to all the restaurants,amusement parks, crusies, conventions until they feel it is very safe to do so for themselves and their loved ones.
Where ever you go, there you are.
 
olle
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q3 2020

Sun Jul 05, 2020 11:48 pm

The only advantage with younger people getting sick is that with T-cells and immune against the sickness the spread of corona in society will slow down and decrease the chance of older and weak getting sick.
 
StarAC17
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q3 2020

Mon Jul 06, 2020 4:16 am

olle wrote:
The only advantage with younger people getting sick is that with T-cells and immune against the sickness the spread of corona in society will slow down and decrease the chance of older and weak getting sick.


This is the definition of Herd Immunity and with many people immune the virus has trouble spreading as rapidly as it has been and the future cases are manageable. Some doctors actually advocate that we should let the young healthy people get out in the economy and live their lives and if they get this then they are less likely to have a severe case of it. I am not advocating getting it intentionally, but young people should by all means be the guinea pigs for the vaccine trials as well if you want to do a duty.

When I was a kid they had "Chicken Pox" parties where if one kid in the neighborhood had it the other kids were intentionally exposed to it to get it and move on. That virus is merely an inconvenience to people and I would not suggest doing that with Covid as there are too many unknowns, but with mild viruses you wanted to get them in the past.

In actuality the hospital capacity should be the guiding metric of social distancing and appropriate lockdowns and not the number of cases. If deaths remain low then it is an argument that having a relatively open economy might not be the biggest hindrance as the young and healthy are getting it and its mild. My cousin who lives in Broward County, Florida has the symptoms although I don't think he was actually tested for it. He was sick for 2 days (5 considering he lost his sense of taste 3 days before the onset of symptoms). I am happy to see that the helms of managing this pandemic is more in the hands of local governments as it should be.
Engineers Rule The World!!!!!
 
frmrCapCadet
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q3 2020

Mon Jul 06, 2020 5:24 pm

https://www.seattletimes.com/nation-wor ... -airborne/

This is actually a NYTimes article. It asserts/implies that small droplets are not filtered by many masks, and that people in crowds indoors likely need an N95 or similar mask for protection from others. This is somewhat what I intuited early on. From mid-March onward I did not go into stores, except for one grocer which I knew would be almost empty at 7am. I avoid crowded indoor spaces, but if I must get something it is with an N95 mask or near equivalent. The article discusses all of the controversy, much is not known and it is even difficult to nail down what is known. Cloth masks offer some protection to others, but not much to the wearer. I would call the article a 'must read'. Interpretation is up to the reader. LOL
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flyguy89
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q3 2020

Mon Jul 06, 2020 6:13 pm

frmrCapCadet wrote:
https://www.seattletimes.com/nation-world/239-experts-with-1-big-claim-the-coronavirus-is-airborne/

This is actually a NYTimes article. It asserts/implies that small droplets are not filtered by many masks, and that people in crowds indoors likely need an N95 or similar mask for protection from others. This is somewhat what I intuited early on. From mid-March onward I did not go into stores, except for one grocer which I knew would be almost empty at 7am. I avoid crowded indoor spaces, but if I must get something it is with an N95 mask or near equivalent. The article discusses all of the controversy, much is not known and it is even difficult to nail down what is known. Cloth masks offer some protection to others, but not much to the wearer. I would call the article a 'must read'. Interpretation is up to the reader. LOL

Practically speaking I don't what it is exactly that they're looking to accomplish. Ever since mask recommendations have come forth, one of the defining messages has been that while it may not offer much protection for the wearer, it mitigates the spread of respiratory droplets by others. Most public health authorities are already acknowledging that the primary mode of transmission is airborne vs. surface contamination. Furthermore, many countries have gotten the infection under control through mandated masking and social distancing, so I don't know in practical impact those findings will really achieve.
 
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LAXintl
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q3 2020

Mon Jul 06, 2020 8:11 pm

Covid hospitalizations taking off. Here is Texas


Image
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EcRCo_zXsAA ... ame=medium
From the desert to the sea, to all of Southern California
 
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Aaron747
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q3 2020

Tue Jul 07, 2020 12:01 am

LAXintl wrote:
Covid hospitalizations taking off. Here is Texas


Image
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EcRCo_zXsAA ... ame=medium


Precisely why the economy has been unable to recover in one graph. That does not inspire a high degree of public confidence.
If you need someone to blame / throw a rock in the air / you'll hit someone guilty
 
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DL717
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q3 2020

Tue Jul 07, 2020 4:09 am

Francoflier wrote:
Here's another study, from Sweden, that seems to show that the disease is much more prevalent than thought, meaning more people are already somewhat immune to it:

https://www.bbc.com/news/health-53248660

The fact that people have been exposed to it already does not necessarily mean that they can't catch it again or transmit it, but in any case, previous exposure should reduce the severity of symptoms in case of re-infection and thus decrease the likelihood of further transmission.

Speaking about Sweden, for all the flak they received for their approach, their death rate is plummeting despite a relatively stable number of new cases.


There is a significant panic component to all of this. I was watching the news the other night and they had a bunch of 20 somethings going on about how they couldn’t believe the tested positive after going out as restrictions were eased in clubs. None of them appeared to be exhibiting any symptoms at all, in fact all of them were perfectly fine. They had only tested positive for the virus. No doubt millions would. People just need to be sensible. Wear a mask Where it makes sense, keep your distance and don’t go into crowds. Don’t do that, it’s your roll of the dice.
Welcome to Nothingburgers. May I take your order?
 
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lightsaber
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q3 2020

Tue Jul 07, 2020 5:50 am

DL717 wrote:
Francoflier wrote:
Here's another study, from Sweden, that seems to show that the disease is much more prevalent than thought, meaning more people are already somewhat immune to it:

https://www.bbc.com/news/health-53248660

The fact that people have been exposed to it already does not necessarily mean that they can't catch it again or transmit it, but in any case, previous exposure should reduce the severity of symptoms in case of re-infection and thus decrease the likelihood of further transmission.

Speaking about Sweden, for all the flak they received for their approach, their death rate is plummeting despite a relatively stable number of new cases.


There is a significant panic component to all of this. I was watching the news the other night and they had a bunch of 20 somethings going on about how they couldn’t believe the tested positive after going out as restrictions were eased in clubs. None of them appeared to be exhibiting any symptoms at all, in fact all of them were perfectly fine. They had only tested positive for the virus. No doubt millions would. People just need to be sensible. Wear a mask Where it makes sense, keep your distance and don’t go into crowds. Don’t do that, it’s your roll of the dice.

There is far too much panic in my opinion. If sick people hadn't been put into the old folks homes, the death rates of New York, New Jersey, and the North East would have been far less.

It is scary. I have a relative who is a doctor whose hospital ward has been pressed into an emergency Covid19 ward. Most of the dealths aren't unexpected (many co-mobidities). Weeks without a death. Then the spike in a neighboring state. There are deaths, but previously identified at risk populations. What fascinates me is the delay my relative sees between a case tested positive and a report and when there is a death and it shows in the statistics.

To others:
The reality is, the young will survive. They'll develop immunity and we'll move on. The trick is not infecting the elderly. At this point, the economic damage will kill more than the virus.

It is how to protect those with many co-mobidities. But how to do that without further trashing the economy? Every study has many infected for every one with symptoms. What is that multiple? I followed the protests and riots and predicted when the cases would spike from them. I was off by a day. But it didn't happen in one heavily impacted area. There was yelling, singing, all the activities that spread the virus, but it didn't. Not really. Could the most impacted area of the nation be near herd immunity?

I'm not saying open the schools. Not yet. No sporting events. Not yet. No dancing (bummer, I miss that). But we cannot put our heads in the sand pretending we can print money forever. Either people work and produce or we will starve in mass.

Lightsaber
IM messages to mods on warnings and bans will be ignored and nasty ones will result in a ban.
 
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DL717
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q3 2020

Tue Jul 07, 2020 6:02 am

lightsaber wrote:
DL717 wrote:
Francoflier wrote:
Here's another study, from Sweden, that seems to show that the disease is much more prevalent than thought, meaning more people are already somewhat immune to it:

https://www.bbc.com/news/health-53248660

The fact that people have been exposed to it already does not necessarily mean that they can't catch it again or transmit it, but in any case, previous exposure should reduce the severity of symptoms in case of re-infection and thus decrease the likelihood of further transmission.

Speaking about Sweden, for all the flak they received for their approach, their death rate is plummeting despite a relatively stable number of new cases.


There is a significant panic component to all of this. I was watching the news the other night and they had a bunch of 20 somethings going on about how they couldn’t believe the tested positive after going out as restrictions were eased in clubs. None of them appeared to be exhibiting any symptoms at all, in fact all of them were perfectly fine. They had only tested positive for the virus. No doubt millions would. People just need to be sensible. Wear a mask Where it makes sense, keep your distance and don’t go into crowds. Don’t do that, it’s your roll of the dice.

There is far too much panic in my opinion. If sick people hadn't been put into the old folks homes, the death rates of New York, New Jersey, and the North East would have been far less.

It is scary. I have a relative who is a doctor whose hospital ward has been pressed into an emergency Covid19 ward. Most of the dealths aren't unexpected (many co-mobidities). Weeks without a death. Then the spike in a neighboring state. There are deaths, but previously identified at risk populations. What fascinates me is the delay my relative sees between a case tested positive and a report and when there is a death and it shows in the statistics.

To others:
The reality is, the young will survive. They'll develop immunity and we'll move on. The trick is not infecting the elderly. At this point, the economic damage will kill more than the virus.

It is how to protect those with many co-mobidities. But how to do that without further trashing the economy? Every study has many infected for every one with symptoms. What is that multiple? I followed the protests and riots and predicted when the cases would spike from them. I was off by a day. But it didn't happen in one heavily impacted area. There was yelling, singing, all the activities that spread the virus, but it didn't. Not really. Could the most impacted area of the nation be near herd immunity?

I'm not saying open the schools. Not yet. No sporting events. Not yet. No dancing (bummer, I miss that). But we cannot put our heads in the sand pretending we can print money forever. Either people work and produce or we will starve in mass.

Lightsaber


Got that right.
Welcome to Nothingburgers. May I take your order?
 
tommy1808
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q3 2020

Tue Jul 07, 2020 8:00 am

lightsaber wrote:
They'll develop immunity and we'll move on.


The jury is still out on that, immunity may just be temporarily.

Best regards
Thomas
Well, there is prophecy in the bible after all: 2 Timothy 3:1-6
 
Olddog
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q3 2020

Tue Jul 07, 2020 8:13 am

According to a study I saw on spanish TV the herd immunity is not possible as the immunity seems to vane after a few weeks.....
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CRJ5000
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q3 2020

Tue Jul 07, 2020 10:40 am

Olddog wrote:
According to a study I saw on spanish TV the herd immunity is not possible as the immunity seems to vane after a few weeks.....


I've seen a lot of information saying the same thing.
Who knows if it's true or not, but lets just say it is...
Then what?
If immunity goes away after a few weeks or months, what is the plan? If the antibodies don't protect you for more than a couple months, a vaccine (that might never even be successfully developed) will not solve anything. The antibodies achieved from a vaccine will also wane after a couple months.
The answer certainly wouldn't be to shut the economy down forever, socially distance forever, wear masks forever, and fear stepping outside into the world forever.
If we find out definitively that this is actually the case, we need to think of a plan B, and preferably quickly before we destroy the world's economy for years or decades to come.
 
tommy1808
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q3 2020

Tue Jul 07, 2020 10:48 am

CRJ5000 wrote:
If immunity goes away after a few weeks or months, what is the plan? If the antibodies don't protect you for more than a couple months, a vaccine (that might never even be successfully developed) will not solve anything. The antibodies achieved from a vaccine will also wane after a couple months..


coordinated vaccination program to vaccinate everyone within the time it "lasts" minus 4 weeks, everyone that doesn´t get the shot has to quarantine for however man weeks are deemed appropriate during that time frame.

best regards
Thomas
Well, there is prophecy in the bible after all: 2 Timothy 3:1-6
 
olle
Posts: 2083
Joined: Tue Feb 06, 2007 3:38 am

Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q3 2020

Tue Jul 07, 2020 11:22 am

StarAC17 wrote:
olle wrote:
The only advantage with younger people getting sick is that with T-cells and immune against the sickness the spread of corona in society will slow down and decrease the chance of older and weak getting sick.


This is the definition of Herd Immunity and with many people immune the virus has trouble spreading as rapidly as it has been and the future cases are manageable. Some doctors actually advocate that we should let the young healthy people get out in the economy and live their lives and if they get this then they are less likely to have a severe case of it. I am not advocating getting it intentionally, but young people should by all means be the guinea pigs for the vaccine trials as well if you want to do a duty.

When I was a kid they had "Chicken Pox" parties where if one kid in the neighborhood had it the other kids were intentionally exposed to it to get it and move on. That virus is merely an inconvenience to people and I would not suggest doing that with Covid as there are too many unknowns, but with mild viruses you wanted to get them in the past.

In actuality the hospital capacity should be the guiding metric of social distancing and appropriate lockdowns and not the number of cases. If deaths remain low then it is an argument that having a relatively open economy might not be the biggest hindrance as the young and healthy are getting it and its mild. My cousin who lives in Broward County, Florida has the symptoms although I don't think he was actually tested for it. He was sick for 2 days (5 considering he lost his sense of taste 3 days before the onset of symptoms). I am happy to see that the helms of managing this pandemic is more in the hands of local governments as it should be.



This seems to be what happens in sweden at the moment. Cases is high but number of death and people in hospitals close back to normal levels.

Sweden had a bad implenentatiin special in April but now it seems to work fine.
 
CRJ5000
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q3 2020

Tue Jul 07, 2020 11:26 am

tommy1808 wrote:
CRJ5000 wrote:
If immunity goes away after a few weeks or months, what is the plan? If the antibodies don't protect you for more than a couple months, a vaccine (that might never even be successfully developed) will not solve anything. The antibodies achieved from a vaccine will also wane after a couple months..


coordinated vaccination program to vaccinate everyone within the time it "lasts" minus 4 weeks, everyone that doesn´t get the shot has to quarantine for however man weeks are deemed appropriate during that time frame.

best regards
Thomas


I think I'm following, but that brings me to another question. If a vaccine ever exists, which it may not, this would require a dose for nearly everyone on the planet. We'll say it takes 18 months to develop a vaccine. After that, you would need billions of doses to make that work. I have no idea how long it would take to get stockpiles that large. We'll say another 12 months. Though I feel that these timeframes may be optimistic.
What do we do for the 2 and a half years it takes to get there?
 
olle
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q3 2020

Tue Jul 07, 2020 11:26 am

tommy1808 wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
They'll develop immunity and we'll move on.


The jury is still out on that, immunity may just be temporarily.

Best regards
Thomas


But probably you will get less sick even if you do not avoid it totally.
 
olle
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Joined: Tue Feb 06, 2007 3:38 am

Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q3 2020

Tue Jul 07, 2020 11:37 am

CRJ5000 wrote:
tommy1808 wrote:
CRJ5000 wrote:
If immunity goes away after a few weeks or months, what is the plan? If the antibodies don't protect you for more than a couple months, a vaccine (that might never even be successfully developed) will not solve anything. The antibodies achieved from a vaccine will also wane after a couple months..


coordinated vaccination program to vaccinate everyone within the time it "lasts" minus 4 weeks, everyone that doesn´t get the shot has to quarantine for however man weeks are deemed appropriate during that time frame.

best regards
Thomas


I think I'm following, but that brings me to another question. If a vaccine ever exists, which it may not, this would require a dose for nearly everyone on the planet. We'll say it takes 18 months to develop a vaccine. After that, you would need billions of doses to make that work. I have no idea how long it would take to get stockpiles that large. We'll say another 12 months. Though I feel that these timeframes may be optimistic.
What do we do for the 2 and a half years it takes to get there?


This is the gamble on high level. Countries like norway and finland waits for the vaccine and until then closed.

Countries like sweden bet that keeping it out until q3, q4 2021 when vaccine in best scenario might arrive is
Complicated to achieve.

Australia tried norway and now failed.
 
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Francoflier
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q3 2020

Tue Jul 07, 2020 12:00 pm

olle wrote:
CRJ5000 wrote:
tommy1808 wrote:

coordinated vaccination program to vaccinate everyone within the time it "lasts" minus 4 weeks, everyone that doesn´t get the shot has to quarantine for however man weeks are deemed appropriate during that time frame.

best regards
Thomas


I think I'm following, but that brings me to another question. If a vaccine ever exists, which it may not, this would require a dose for nearly everyone on the planet. We'll say it takes 18 months to develop a vaccine. After that, you would need billions of doses to make that work. I have no idea how long it would take to get stockpiles that large. We'll say another 12 months. Though I feel that these timeframes may be optimistic.
What do we do for the 2 and a half years it takes to get there?


This is the gamble on high level. Countries like norway and finland waits for the vaccine and until then closed.

Countries like sweden bet that keeping it out until q3, q4 2021 when vaccine in best scenario might arrive is
Complicated to achieve.

Australia tried norway and now failed.


Exactly.
Those who refuse to face the reality are in for a long wait in lockdown. Australia is now shutting down again for its 'second wave'. The problem is that waves will keep happening until the virus has gone through enough of the population.
I hope Australians like staying at home and isolated from the rest of the World, because they'll be in lockdown on and off until the miracle cure comes along, whenever that may be. Ditto Norway et. al.

Sweden, for all the criticism it endured, is now seeing a plummeting death rate and will soon return to normal. Ironically, the US will likely have seen the worst of it soon. The death count is still dropping there despite the current spikes in many states.

One thing is becoming clear: countries have either gone through their wave or they will. The head in the sand approach only works for as long as you can hold your breath...
I'll do my own airline. With Blackjack. And hookers. In fact, forget the airline.
 
Etika
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q3 2020

Tue Jul 07, 2020 12:24 pm

olle wrote:
CRJ5000 wrote:
tommy1808 wrote:

coordinated vaccination program to vaccinate everyone within the time it "lasts" minus 4 weeks, everyone that doesn´t get the shot has to quarantine for however man weeks are deemed appropriate during that time frame.

best regards
Thomas


I think I'm following, but that brings me to another question. If a vaccine ever exists, which it may not, this would require a dose for nearly everyone on the planet. We'll say it takes 18 months to develop a vaccine. After that, you would need billions of doses to make that work. I have no idea how long it would take to get stockpiles that large. We'll say another 12 months. Though I feel that these timeframes may be optimistic.
What do we do for the 2 and a half years it takes to get there?


This is the gamble on high level. Countries like norway and finland waits for the vaccine and until then closed.


That is simply false. Norway, Finland, or other countries with similar strategies, such as Germany, are currently not closed any more than Sweden is. Those countries have pushed the number of cases low enough that "test, trace, isolate" strategy is keeping the situation stable, allowing reopening. The level of closure is similar to what it is currently in Sweden.

In fact those other European countries are in a way more open, as other countries in Europe have started to allow travel between countries of similar levels of infections. But Swedes are still not accepted due to the high incidence of cases there.
 
CRJ5000
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q3 2020

Tue Jul 07, 2020 12:41 pm

Etika wrote:
olle wrote:
CRJ5000 wrote:

I think I'm following, but that brings me to another question. If a vaccine ever exists, which it may not, this would require a dose for nearly everyone on the planet. We'll say it takes 18 months to develop a vaccine. After that, you would need billions of doses to make that work. I have no idea how long it would take to get stockpiles that large. We'll say another 12 months. Though I feel that these timeframes may be optimistic.
What do we do for the 2 and a half years it takes to get there?


This is the gamble on high level. Countries like norway and finland waits for the vaccine and until then closed.


That is simply false. Norway, Finland, or other countries with similar strategies, such as Germany, are currently not closed any more than Sweden is. Those countries have pushed the number of cases low enough that "test, trace, isolate" strategy is keeping the situation stable, allowing reopening. The level of closure is similar to what it is currently in Sweden.

In fact those other European countries are in a way more open, as other countries in Europe have started to allow travel between countries of similar levels of infections. But Swedes are still not accepted due to the high incidence of cases there.


Things are still certainly not "business as usual" in places like Germany though. Though the partial reopening and relaxing certain measures are nice, it's still a long way from 100%. How long do countries go on in this way? What is the ultimate goal, if in fact a vaccine doesn't come along or does not protect for more than a few months?
Obviously being partially reopened, or reopened with restrictions is better economically than complete shutdown, it isn't sustainable.
I'm not trying to advocate to just open up indiscriminately and act as if the virus is not there, but I genuinely wonder at how long countries and people are willing to go on in a restrictive matter and how long we are willing to severely limit the economy when we don't even know that there is a possibility of a resolution in the future.
 
tommy1808
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q3 2020

Tue Jul 07, 2020 1:59 pm

CRJ5000 wrote:
Etika wrote:
olle wrote:

This is the gamble on high level. Countries like norway and finland waits for the vaccine and until then closed.


That is simply false. Norway, Finland, or other countries with similar strategies, such as Germany, are currently not closed any more than Sweden is. Those countries have pushed the number of cases low enough that "test, trace, isolate" strategy is keeping the situation stable, allowing reopening. The level of closure is similar to what it is currently in Sweden.

In fact those other European countries are in a way more open, as other countries in Europe have started to allow travel between countries of similar levels of infections. But Swedes are still not accepted due to the high incidence of cases there.


Things are still certainly not "business as usual" in places like Germany though. Though the partial reopening and relaxing certain measures are nice, it's still a long way from 100%. How long do countries go on in this way? How long do countries go on in this way? What is the ultimate goal, if in fact a vaccine doesn't come along or does not protect for more than a few months?


It's pretty open here. Anyhow, if immunity is not possible, stomping it out with massive test, trace, isolate program the likes no one has ever even thought about is the pretty much only option, with isolate in all caps, or accepting that whole sectors of the economy will vaporize for good.

There can probably be refinements, but by now we may have some fair indicators how close everything as to be to keep a lid on.

Best regards
Thomas
Well, there is prophecy in the bible after all: 2 Timothy 3:1-6
 
lentokone
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q3 2020

Tue Jul 07, 2020 2:00 pm

CRJ5000 wrote:
Etika wrote:
olle wrote:

This is the gamble on high level. Countries like norway and finland waits for the vaccine and until then closed.


That is simply false. Norway, Finland, or other countries with similar strategies, such as Germany, are currently not closed any more than Sweden is. Those countries have pushed the number of cases low enough that "test, trace, isolate" strategy is keeping the situation stable, allowing reopening. The level of closure is similar to what it is currently in Sweden.

In fact those other European countries are in a way more open, as other countries in Europe have started to allow travel between countries of similar levels of infections. But Swedes are still not accepted due to the high incidence of cases there.


Things are still certainly not "business as usual" in places like Germany though. Though the partial reopening and relaxing certain measures are nice, it's still a long way from 100%. How long do countries go on in this way? What is the ultimate goal, if in fact a vaccine doesn't come along or does not protect for more than a few months?
Obviously being partially reopened, or reopened with restrictions is better economically than complete shutdown, it isn't sustainable.
I'm not trying to advocate to just open up indiscriminately and act as if the virus is not there, but I genuinely wonder at how long countries and people are willing to go on in a restrictive matter and how long we are willing to severely limit the economy when we don't even know that there is a possibility of a resolution in the future.


Allow me add a couple of observations to this very interesting discussion about the measures taken by different countries to combat Coronavirus. It seems that the media has made this to look like a contest between the Swedish line and the lockdown line (for the rest of Europe). But if we compare the measures by Sweden and Finland the differences have actually been surprisingly small. There has not been a lockdown in either of the countries. Everybody has been allowed to move about freely or go shopping or take a hair cut or go to the gym just as before.

The key differences were:
1) in FI restaurants and bars were closed (for roughly 2 months) following an adoption of a special law by the FI parliament while in SE the restaurants remained open
2) in FI primary school classes 3-6 were closed for 1½ months in the whole country while in SE they remained open (subject to local decisions); all other restrictions for educational facilities were more or less the same in both countries (meaning that primary school classes 1-3 as well as day care facilities remained open)
3) the maximum number of persons allowed for meetings and public gatherings was in FI 10 persons, in SE the number was 50
4) FI borders were closed to foreign nationals (however, with lots of exceptions, and no mandatory restrictions for FI citizens) while in SE the borders were/are open
5) in FI there was a politically motivated three-week travel restriction between Uusimaa/Nyland region (including the capital city Helsinki) and the rest of FI, but there was no lockdown or any restriction for free movement within the region; in SE there were no travel restrictions.
6) in FI many public municipally-run indoor sports facilities like swimming halls were closed following government orders while in SE decisions about the sports facilities were apparently done locally

All private businesses except restaurants were allowed to remain open with no restrictions (well, in FI you could not take more than 10 people to theatres or cinemas at a time so there was no sound business case) The actual differences between FI and SE were not that big. Most government measures both in FI and SE were/are non-enforceable recommendations to the citizens.

The results of the measures, however, have so far been quite different: FI has succeeded much better in protecting its people, especially the elderly and more vulnerable people. I can see two main reasons for the current results: 1) Finns seem to be surprisingly willing to comply with the recommended measures voluntarily (wash your hands, maintain distance between people, don't travel unnecessarily etc...) and 2) Finland has had a much better luck in avoiding the spread of virus to hospitals and rest homes. For some reason Sweden had bad luck (or incompetence) in the early phase of the pandemic.
 
StarAC17
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q3 2020

Tue Jul 07, 2020 3:03 pm

Olddog wrote:
According to a study I saw on spanish TV the herd immunity is not possible as the immunity seems to vane after a few weeks.....


Antibodies may vane but there are other ways the immune system works, you lose antibodies for many past infections that the body will remember if they encounter it again.
You have memory and T-cells that can identify the pathogen and deploy antibodies faster, and furthermore antibodies are only a part of the immune response.

https://medicalxpress.com/news/2020-06- ... shown.html

I think the T-cell response has also been seen in those who are participating in vaccine trials as well. What would speed this up but is highly unethical is that we intentionally re-infect those who have recovered to see what response happens to them. The virus is too deadly and unpredictable to do this but it would speed up vaccine trials and the understanding of immunity.

CRJ5000 wrote:
Olddog wrote:
According to a study I saw on spanish TV the herd immunity is not possible as the immunity seems to vane after a few weeks.....


I've seen a lot of information saying the same thing.
Who knows if it's true or not, but lets just say it is...
Then what?
If immunity goes away after a few weeks or months, what is the plan? If the antibodies don't protect you for more than a couple months, a vaccine (that might never even be successfully developed) will not solve anything. The antibodies achieved from a vaccine will also wane after a couple months.
The answer certainly wouldn't be to shut the economy down forever, socially distance forever, wear masks forever, and fear stepping outside into the world forever.
If we find out definitively that this is actually the case, we need to think of a plan B, and preferably quickly before we destroy the world's economy for years or decades to come.


tommy1808 wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
They'll develop immunity and we'll move on.


The jury is still out on that, immunity may just be temporarily.

Best regards
Thomas


If immunity is temporary then we can kiss an effective vaccine goodbye. It will rely on treatments then.

tommy1808 wrote:
CRJ5000 wrote:
If immunity goes away after a few weeks or months, what is the plan? If the antibodies don't protect you for more than a couple months, a vaccine (that might never even be successfully developed) will not solve anything. The antibodies achieved from a vaccine will also wane after a couple months..


coordinated vaccination program to vaccinate everyone within the time it "lasts" minus 4 weeks, everyone that doesn´t get the shot has to quarantine for however man weeks are deemed appropriate during that time frame.

best regards
Thomas


You have enough trouble with people getting the annual flu-shot and I would think that this would give a lot of fodder to anti-vaccine movement if you needed one every month.
I would probably be like screw this eventually and in fact the only reason I get the flu-shot is that I can go into a local pharmacy and get it in 20 minutes. The only way this would work if they made it a nasal spray or something besides a needle that can be self-administered.

Etika wrote:
olle wrote:
CRJ5000 wrote:

I think I'm following, but that brings me to another question. If a vaccine ever exists, which it may not, this would require a dose for nearly everyone on the planet. We'll say it takes 18 months to develop a vaccine. After that, you would need billions of doses to make that work. I have no idea how long it would take to get stockpiles that large. We'll say another 12 months. Though I feel that these timeframes may be optimistic.
What do we do for the 2 and a half years it takes to get there?


This is the gamble on high level. Countries like norway and finland waits for the vaccine and until then closed.


That is simply false. Norway, Finland, or other countries with similar strategies, such as Germany, are currently not closed any more than Sweden is. Those countries have pushed the number of cases low enough that "test, trace, isolate" strategy is keeping the situation stable, allowing reopening. The level of closure is similar to what it is currently in Sweden.

In fact those other European countries are in a way more open, as other countries in Europe have started to allow travel between countries of similar levels of infections. But Swedes are still not accepted due to the high incidence of cases there.


Canada is in this boat too, as frustrating as it may be personally that not everything is open they are able to be organized enough to manage any potentially outbreaks without a full lockdown. At least hopefully.
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casinterest
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q3 2020

Tue Jul 07, 2020 5:16 pm

There is an uptick in deaths in Florida(63), Arizona(117), and Alabama(28) so far today.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

Will have to wait out the week to see if it is a trend or just a manifestation of the delayed holiday reporting.
Where ever you go, there you are.
 
flyguy89
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q3 2020

Tue Jul 07, 2020 6:20 pm

StarAC17 wrote:
Olddog wrote:
According to a study I saw on spanish TV the herd immunity is not possible as the immunity seems to vane after a few weeks.....


Antibodies may vane but there are other ways the immune system works, you lose antibodies for many past infections that the body will remember if they encounter it again.
You have memory and T-cells that can identify the pathogen and deploy antibodies faster, and furthermore antibodies are only a part of the immune response.

https://medicalxpress.com/news/2020-06- ... shown.html

This is often what I see missing from these scare articles on the lack of immunity and antibodies. Antibodies are not the sole indicator of previous infections or immunity. Cell-mediated immunity more seems to be what we're looking at for this.
 
cpd
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q3 2020

Tue Jul 07, 2020 9:32 pm

lightsaber wrote:
DL717 wrote:
Francoflier wrote:
Here's another study, from Sweden, that seems to show that the disease is much more prevalent than thought, meaning more people are already somewhat immune to it:

https://www.bbc.com/news/health-53248660

The fact that people have been exposed to it already does not necessarily mean that they can't catch it again or transmit it, but in any case, previous exposure should reduce the severity of symptoms in case of re-infection and thus decrease the likelihood of further transmission.

Speaking about Sweden, for all the flak they received for their approach, their death rate is plummeting despite a relatively stable number of new cases.


There is a significant panic component to all of this. I was watching the news the other night and they had a bunch of 20 somethings going on about how they couldn’t believe the tested positive after going out as restrictions were eased in clubs. None of them appeared to be exhibiting any symptoms at all, in fact all of them were perfectly fine. They had only tested positive for the virus. No doubt millions would. People just need to be sensible. Wear a mask Where it makes sense, keep your distance and don’t go into crowds. Don’t do that, it’s your roll of the dice.

There is far too much panic in my opinion. If sick people hadn't been put into the old folks homes, the death rates of New York, New Jersey, and the North East would have been far less.

It is scary. I have a relative who is a doctor whose hospital ward has been pressed into an emergency Covid19 ward. Most of the dealths aren't unexpected (many co-mobidities). Weeks without a death. Then the spike in a neighboring state. There are deaths, but previously identified at risk populations. What fascinates me is the delay my relative sees between a case tested positive and a report and when there is a death and it shows in the statistics.

To others:
The reality is, the young will survive. They'll develop immunity and we'll move on. The trick is not infecting the elderly. At this point, the economic damage will kill more than the virus.

It is how to protect those with many co-mobidities. But how to do that without further trashing the economy? Every study has many infected for every one with symptoms. What is that multiple? I followed the protests and riots and predicted when the cases would spike from them. I was off by a day. But it didn't happen in one heavily impacted area. There was yelling, singing, all the activities that spread the virus, but it didn't. Not really. Could the most impacted area of the nation be near herd immunity?

I'm not saying open the schools. Not yet. No sporting events. Not yet. No dancing (bummer, I miss that). But we cannot put our heads in the sand pretending we can print money forever. Either people work and produce or we will starve in mass.

Lightsaber


I don’t agree. I think this is reckless and careless.

People who can work at home must continue to do so that way and we must continue to be responsible in how we go about doing things day to day. No attending massive gatherings or big beach parties. Only go out for essential trips (eg, buying groceries from the supermarket).

There is also no concrete 100% proof that people who have had the virus won’t get it again (that has happened).

I don’t want to get sick with this, I’m very fit and healthy at the moment. I’ve also seen what can happen to fit and healthy people who’ve had this virus and how badly it affected them. I don’t want that.

In my country we’ve had one state head into a lockdown again because people couldn’t be responsible.
 
Toenga
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q3 2020

Tue Jul 07, 2020 11:00 pm

Francoflier wrote:
olle wrote:
CRJ5000 wrote:

I think I'm following, but that brings me to another question. If a vaccine ever exists, which it may not, this would require a dose for nearly everyone on the planet. We'll say it takes 18 months to develop a vaccine. After that, you would need billions of doses to make that work. I have no idea how long it would take to get stockpiles that large. We'll say another 12 months. Though I feel that these timeframes may be optimistic.
What do we do for the 2 and a half years it takes to get there?


This is the gamble on high level. Countries like norway and finland waits for the vaccine and until then closed.

Countries like sweden bet that keeping it out until q3, q4 2021 when vaccine in best scenario might arrive is
Complicated to achieve.

Australia tried norway and now failed.


Exactly.
Those who refuse to face the reality are in for a long wait in lockdown. Australia is now shutting down again for its 'second wave'. The problem is that waves will keep happening until the virus has gone through enough of the population.
I hope Australians like staying at home and isolated from the rest of the World, because they'll be in lockdown on and off until the miracle cure comes along, whenever that may be. Ditto Norway et. al.

Sweden, for all the criticism it endured, is now seeing a plummeting death rate and will soon return to normal. Ironically, the US will likely have seen the worst of it soon. The death count is still dropping there despite the current spikes in many states.

One thing is becoming clear: countries have either gone through their wave or they will. The head in the sand approach only works for as long as you can hold your breath...


The vast majority of Australia has eliminated covid and is now enjoying life almost free of covid type restrictions, and relative freedom from the fear of catching covid.
The reimposition of lockdown is confined to a tiny portion of the land mass but about 20% of the population of Australia, being the greater Melbourne area. The Victorian state border is effectively closed outbound.
Other state borders are either open or will be inside a week.
My take is the Australian response was degraded by the divergence of views of the state governors and federal government. States wanting elimination and Feds aiming for only covid suppression. The rest of Australia that has now achieved effective community transmission elimination but at the expense of over three months of fairly strict lockdown and of course border closures to all but returning Australians.
New Zealand went for a very stringent lockdown that basically eliminated community transmission. This was followed by two and a half weeks of less stringent lockdown, equivalent to the Australian and UK lockdowns to wrap up the tail of community transmissions and then in two stages the removal of all covid restrictions bar the border closure to all but returning kiwis. New Zealand went for intensity of lockdown against duration, and I am sure it has paid off with the local economy now performing at near last years levels, and we are enjoying ourselves.
How we extricate ourselves from this position is very dependant on what happens off shore and so is the vast majority of the effect on our economy.
We are of course totally dependant on our ability to maintain the security of our border quarantine and our ability to contain any, almost inevitable outbreak. However we are comforted in that we already contained a nationwide outbreak, that when we were woefully prepared and equipped. We are now in a much better position to handle another outbreak. We are of course nervously watching the Melbourne situation and taking lessons from it.
 
Toenga
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q3 2020

Tue Jul 07, 2020 11:03 pm

Sorry in my previous post I omitted to say our very stringent level 4 lockdown was only for one month.
 
Kent350787
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q3 2020

Tue Jul 07, 2020 11:06 pm

Depending on the experiences in a country, the choices to move forward are also very different. Here in Australia, the total COVID death toll is lower than Arizona's single day death toll posted above. As the PP mentioned, Victoria (pop. 6.5 million) is closed off from the rest of the country with its capital Melbourne (pop.4.5m) back in stage 3 lockdown (leave principal place of residence for caregiving, essential supplies or health and exercise only).

It's a serious political choice here to ease restrictions if they result in even a literal handful of increased cases, let alone deaths. We, and NZ, are on a very different pathway to the rest of the world, where natural herd immunity (if proven effective) is unlikely to be anyway morally or politically palatable. I think we're locked down to the international community until there is a vaccine, or the virus wipes itself out.
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Francoflier
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q3 2020

Wed Jul 08, 2020 1:35 am

Kent350787 wrote:
Depending on the experiences in a country, the choices to move forward are also very different. Here in Australia, the total COVID death toll is lower than Arizona's single day death toll posted above. As the PP mentioned, Victoria (pop. 6.5 million) is closed off from the rest of the country with its capital Melbourne (pop.4.5m) back in stage 3 lockdown (leave principal place of residence for caregiving, essential supplies or health and exercise only).

It's a serious political choice here to ease restrictions if they result in even a literal handful of increased cases, let alone deaths. We, and NZ, are on a very different pathway to the rest of the world, where natural herd immunity (if proven effective) is unlikely to be anyway morally or politically palatable. I think we're locked down to the international community until there is a vaccine, or the virus wipes itself out.


I genuinely wish Australia and NZ the best of luck with this approach.
Even if eradication works, it does indeed mean that they will isolate themselves from the rest of the World for the foreseeable future, with heavy consequences for thousands of citizens.
And if eradication doesn't work, which is likely as it is quite hard to achieve, then it's lockdowns on and off for a long time ahead.
Not an enviable place to be in for these nations, but then again if the population does not tolerate any level of contagion or death, then politicians have no choice I suppose.

This, to me, is the danger of the constant over-sensationalization of the virus in the media. It prevents many from seeing its effects in relative terms.
While it is a serious event, it still only represents, so far, a roughly 2% increase in the global mortality rate for 2020. Following current trends, this figure is unlikely to go any higher and will decrease over time as the virus works its way through the largest population groups and slowly evolves towards a less lethal pathogen.

The question remains, in light of the above figure, how much is the population is ready to suffer to prevent this (if it is even preventable in the long term) , and what are the unintended consequences of the drastic measures we are taking?
I'll do my own airline. With Blackjack. And hookers. In fact, forget the airline.
 
Toenga
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q3 2020

Wed Jul 08, 2020 2:27 am

Francoflier wrote:
Kent350787 wrote:
Depending on the experiences in a country, the choices to move forward are also very different. Here in Australia, the total COVID death toll is lower than Arizona's single day death toll posted above. As the PP mentioned, Victoria (pop. 6.5 million) is closed off from the rest of the country with its capital Melbourne (pop.4.5m) back in stage 3 lockdown (leave principal place of residence for caregiving, essential supplies or health and exercise only).

It's a serious political choice here to ease restrictions if they result in even a literal handful of increased cases, let alone deaths. We, and NZ, are on a very different pathway to the rest of the world, where natural herd immunity (if proven effective) is unlikely to be anyway morally or politically palatable. I think we're locked down to the international community until there is a vaccine, or the virus wipes itself out.


I genuinely wish Australia and NZ the best of luck with this approach.
Even if eradication works, it does indeed mean that they will isolate themselves from the rest of the World for the foreseeable future, with heavy consequences for thousands of citizens.
And if eradication doesn't work, which is likely as it is quite hard to achieve, then it's lockdowns on and off for a long time ahead.
Not an enviable place to be in for these nations, but then again if the population does not tolerate any level of contagion or death, then politicians have no choice I suppose.

This, to me, is the danger of the constant over-sensationalization of the virus in the media. It prevents many from seeing its effects in relative terms.
While it is a serious event, it still only represents, so far, a roughly 2% increase in the global mortality rate for 2020. Following current trends, this figure is unlikely to go any higher and will decrease over time as the virus works its way through the largest population groups and slowly evolves towards a less lethal pathogen.

The question remains, in light of the above figure, how much is the population is ready to suffer to prevent this (if it is even preventable in the long term) , and what are the unintended consequences of the drastic measures we are taking?


The last case outside border quarantine in NZ is well over a month ago.
The last case of community transmission is nearly two months ago.
So there is no virus circulating in the community, the only source can be breakout from a quarantine facility but as Melbourne has shown, this is definite risk. A risk though by closely managing the facilities, maintaining considerable testing and track and trace capabilities and maintaining stocks of PPE that should be manageable with local lockdowns, hopefully smaller then a Melbourne lockdown.
So now our local economy is running unimpeded except for segments catering for overseas tourists and overseas students. For tourism this is largely mitigated by an increase domestic tourism because of the unavailability of overseas travel and now hotels being used for quarantine facilities.
Australia is the largest source of overseas tourists, and it is expected this market minus Victoria will reopen shortly.
For the rest of tourism, conditions outside NZ are probably more significant then our own border closure. Cruise ships aren't coming anyway.
Apart from tourists we have been able to bring in key staff from other countries for key tasks, a recent example being a Swiss expert to splice a new cable for a ski field chair lift.
There was a considerable cost in a short period eliminating the virus, but having done that, the costs of maintaining a secure border are modest, much much less then the ongoing costs of an economy spluttering along trying to maintain social distancing.
There are similar gains from a social point of view, Seven weeks only of personal isolation, now freedom from everything but overseas travel. And we are not having to deal with losing loved ones to this disease.
Is it sustainable for ever? Probably not, but it certainly is sustainable for a while yet until alternatives become more apparent.
 
StarAC17
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q3 2020

Wed Jul 08, 2020 4:46 am

flyguy89 wrote:
StarAC17 wrote:
Olddog wrote:
According to a study I saw on spanish TV the herd immunity is not possible as the immunity seems to vane after a few weeks.....


Antibodies may vane but there are other ways the immune system works, you lose antibodies for many past infections that the body will remember if they encounter it again.
You have memory and T-cells that can identify the pathogen and deploy antibodies faster, and furthermore antibodies are only a part of the immune response.

https://medicalxpress.com/news/2020-06- ... shown.html

This is often what I see missing from these scare articles on the lack of immunity and antibodies. Antibodies are not the sole indicator of previous infections or immunity. Cell-mediated immunity more seems to be what we're looking at for this.


Here is another article that says that basically in hypothesizing that covid19 will become like the other endemic coronaviruses. It will generally cause the common cold at worst meaning infection is possible but not severe to people.

https://www.statnews.com/2020/05/22/the ... eir-power/

There is also no concrete 100% proof that people who have had the virus won’t get it again (that has happened).


If you are referring to the news out of South Korea, they were all false positives. The tests pick up traces of RNA but when they looked into it deeper they said that they were not in fact re-infected.

https://www.sciencenews.org/article/cor ... e-response

With many respiratory pathogens re-infection happens but is usually asymptomatic or mild, meaning you might get the sniffles if you come across Covid19 again having had it once. In 6 months if a recovered person gets Covid19 again they probably will get a milder or no symptoms get another immune response which acts like a natural vaccine booster.

This, to me, is the danger of the constant over-sensationalization of the virus in the media. It prevents many from seeing its effects in relative terms.
While it is a serious event, it still only represents, so far, a roughly 2% increase in the global mortality rate for 2020. Following current trends, this figure is unlikely to go any higher and will decrease over time as the virus works its way through the largest population groups and slowly evolves towards a less lethal pathogen.


I tend to agree with this. Covid19 is probably something you don't want to get as getting it is a level of Russian Roulette. However the more I read about the virus it is not some crazy superbug. It behaves like all other viruses do, it could be airborne, so is measles and the chicken pox. It can survive on surfaces, so can the flu and common cold. Appropriate actions do a lot to protect you.

The question remains, in light of the above figure, how much is the population is ready to suffer to prevent this (if it is even preventable in the long term) , and what are the unintended consequences of the drastic measures we are taking?


It depends on the country. I see people in Canada starting to fight back against the constant state of emergency where in a nation of 38 million are getting 200-400 new cases a day, usually with similar recoveries. Masks orders make sense (even though they suck) but the Ontario government wants a state of emergency for another year and people are raising questions at that.

Politicians need to realize that their citizens will remember this come election time. I could see what happened to Churchill in 1945 happening in a lot of countries whose leaders overreach.
Engineers Rule The World!!!!!
 
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casinterest
Posts: 11293
Joined: Sat Feb 12, 2005 5:30 am

Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q3 2020

Thu Jul 09, 2020 12:34 pm

Well Here in the US it looks like things are taking a turn for the worse.
California, Florida, Texas, and Arizona are leading the charge in new cases, and now the deaths are starting to spike.

The 7 day average death count has started to increase in the US overall, and while we still need more data points, it seems the Trend in Texas,California, Arizona and Florida are carrying the weight of this shift.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavir ... -yesterday


However, do not ignore South Carolina, Mississippi, Tennessee, Georgia, NC, Alabama, and a host of other smaller states that are seeing a troubling rise in cases.

It appears that many of the trends people hoped for are not occurring.

1. The Summer is not reducing case increases
2. The virus is still deadly
3. Young people are still passing it on.
4. Further re openings will be delayed.
Where ever you go, there you are.
 
flyguy89
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Joined: Tue Feb 24, 2009 6:43 pm

Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q3 2020

Fri Jul 10, 2020 7:34 am

Finally...a nuanced and in-depth piece about some of the recent antibody studies that delves into cell-mediated immunity and what it all means for a vaccine:

https://news.yahoo.com/research-coalesc ... 00542.html
 
ltbewr
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q3 2020

Fri Jul 10, 2020 12:43 pm

The USA is facing an unprecedented disaster from Covid-19, in particular in Texas and Florida. Even in New Jersey, the R # is above 1 after being as low as R 0.75 a few weeks ago due In large part to the economic necessity of loosing of restrictions as to business, too many not wanting to follow mask rules, too many group gatherings and leadership failures from the President to local officials. Professional sports teams are trying to restart seasons but facing many players and staff with Covid-19 infections. A growing number of college sports teams, including major football programs, are deciding that they won't play this fall. President Trump and others are demanding in-school K-12 sessions this fall so kids can be in necessary structured learning and parents can go back to workplaces, but there is massive resistance and nowhere sufficient funding to carry it out. I think many are just giving up, saying they will live, work for their and family's financial and physical survival, put all at risk figuring a vaccine will be out and distribution will be the only way out of this.That also seems to be President Trump's plan - basically no plan, failing to recognize that no plan means maybe many millions disabled for life, 100's of 1000's dead, our healthcare structure in ruins and a massive economic depression like that of 1929-1930's.
https://www.cnn.com/2020/07/10/politics ... index.html
It appears the USA in on the road to hell from Covid-19 with possibly a worse case scenario
 
tommy1808
Posts: 12901
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q3 2020

Fri Jul 10, 2020 12:51 pm

ltbewr wrote:
The USA is facing an unprecedented disaster from Covid-19, in particular in Texas and Florida.


And it may be a lot worse than it seems as well.

May 25th to July 1st:
Texas, tests +168%, infections +621%
Florida: tests +47%, infections +1121%
Source: https://www.spiegel.de/wissenschaft/med ... ccda55b593

That also seems to be President Trump's plan - basically no plan, failing to recognize that no plan means maybe many millions disabled for life, 100's of 1000's dead, our healthcare structure in ruins and a massive economic depression like that of 1929-1930's.


Bigger Dacha ... makes sense.

Best regards
Thomas
Well, there is prophecy in the bible after all: 2 Timothy 3:1-6
 
olle
Posts: 2083
Joined: Tue Feb 06, 2007 3:38 am

Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q3 2020

Fri Jul 10, 2020 12:53 pm

https://www.berliner-zeitung.de/news/vi ... d-li.92336

Virologist Hendrik Streeck: "I expect there will be a second, a third wave"
The head of the Heinsberg study also said on Thursday: "We will always have to reckon with hotspots like in Gütersloh". The virus will not be "completely driven out" in the future.

BerlinThe virologist and head of the Heinsberg study Hendrik Streeck warns against being overly optimistic about the fight against the corona virus. On the ZDF talk show Maybrit Illner, Streeck said on Thursday: "We have to say goodbye to the idea that we can somehow completely drive out the virus". The professor is convinced that there will always be mass infections with the Covid 19 virus.

"We have a constant wobbling and wobbling as we know it with all corona viruses," said Streeck. "We will always have to reckon with hotspots like in Gütersloh." According to the virologist, he also reckons with "that there will be a second, a third wave".

Regarding how coronavirus is handled within society, Streeck continued: "We cannot wait for a panacea, a vaccine or a medication." but will be 'with Corona' ”.
 
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casinterest
Posts: 11293
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q3 2020

Fri Jul 10, 2020 4:06 pm

olle wrote:
https://www.berliner-zeitung.de/news/virologe-hendrick-streeck-ich-rechne-damit-dass-es-eine-zweite-eine-dritte-welle-geben-wird-li.92336

Virologist Hendrik Streeck: "I expect there will be a second, a third wave"
The head of the Heinsberg study also said on Thursday: "We will always have to reckon with hotspots like in Gütersloh". The virus will not be "completely driven out" in the future.

BerlinThe virologist and head of the Heinsberg study Hendrik Streeck warns against being overly optimistic about the fight against the corona virus. On the ZDF talk show Maybrit Illner, Streeck said on Thursday: "We have to say goodbye to the idea that we can somehow completely drive out the virus". The professor is convinced that there will always be mass infections with the Covid 19 virus.

"We have a constant wobbling and wobbling as we know it with all corona viruses," said Streeck. "We will always have to reckon with hotspots like in Gütersloh." According to the virologist, he also reckons with "that there will be a second, a third wave".

Regarding how coronavirus is handled within society, Streeck continued: "We cannot wait for a panacea, a vaccine or a medication." but will be 'with Corona' ”.



If we are going to live with it, we need health planning and funding for medical. That hasn't happened. The US is still Woefully unprepared for an event where this much healthcare assists are required.
Where ever you go, there you are.
 
Chemist
Posts: 734
Joined: Tue Oct 20, 2015 4:46 am

Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q3 2020

Fri Jul 10, 2020 9:56 pm

casinterest wrote:
olle wrote:
https://www.berliner-zeitung.de/news/virologe-hendrick-streeck-ich-rechne-damit-dass-es-eine-zweite-eine-dritte-welle-geben-wird-li.92336

Virologist Hendrik Streeck: "I expect there will be a second, a third wave"
The head of the Heinsberg study also said on Thursday: "We will always have to reckon with hotspots like in Gütersloh". The virus will not be "completely driven out" in the future.

BerlinThe virologist and head of the Heinsberg study Hendrik Streeck warns against being overly optimistic about the fight against the corona virus. On the ZDF talk show Maybrit Illner, Streeck said on Thursday: "We have to say goodbye to the idea that we can somehow completely drive out the virus". The professor is convinced that there will always be mass infections with the Covid 19 virus.

"We have a constant wobbling and wobbling as we know it with all corona viruses," said Streeck. "We will always have to reckon with hotspots like in Gütersloh." According to the virologist, he also reckons with "that there will be a second, a third wave".

Regarding how coronavirus is handled within society, Streeck continued: "We cannot wait for a panacea, a vaccine or a medication." but will be 'with Corona' ”.



If we are going to live with it, we need health planning and funding for medical. That hasn't happened. The US is still Woefully unprepared for an event where this much healthcare assists are required.


"By failing to plan, you are planning to fail"
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