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Francoflier
Posts: 5941
Joined: Wed Oct 31, 2001 12:27 pm

Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q3 2020

Wed Jul 29, 2020 5:27 am

art wrote:
Francoflier wrote:
Lockdowns are extreme in nature, and while they may be understandable when the outbreak outstrips medical capacity, they are also extremely unpopular and tough to accept...


I see the absence of populations spontaneously taking limiting, defensive measures in the face of an aggressive, highly infectious, potentially fatal disease as almost incomprehensible. If people were prepared of their own accord to opt for the dual inconveniences of using aerosol protection (masks) and maintaining a distance from others, I surmise that transmission rates would be far lower and there would be far fewer lockdowns.

The irony is that those who do not try to protect themselves or even resist government demands that they protect themselves (since they see such measures as usurping their freedom) contribute to an untenable growth in infection and a severe reduction in their freedom when the government takes emergency measures to stop a runaway increase in infections.

Pre-vaccine I can see societies stopping, starting, stopping, starting unless people of their own will protect themselves. That is tough compared to the relatively minor inconvenience of wearing masks and distancing.


I wholeheartedly agree. Masks are a very efficient way to decrease transmission rate at the very minimal cost of a slight discomfort. It never ceases to shock me that some places are criminalizing going outside of your own home and yet not enforcing mask wearing... One of the many irrational ways we are dealing with this disease, especially now that the science is out.
 
GDB
Posts: 14408
Joined: Wed May 23, 2001 6:25 pm

Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q3 2020

Wed Jul 29, 2020 8:39 am

Yep, he's at it again with another 'cure' from a total quack;
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jrwOvap7uLo
 
art
Posts: 4223
Joined: Tue Feb 08, 2005 11:46 am

Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q3 2020

Wed Jul 29, 2020 12:41 pm

GDB wrote:
Yep, he's at it again with another 'cure' from a total quack;
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jrwOvap7uLo


With a bit of luck (from my point of view) Trump will bury his chances of re-election by pumping out propaganda that results in a runaway increase in infections and deaths in the remaining weeks leading up to the US election. That, I think, is the mostly likely way he will lose the election.

Am I being heartless? I don't think so. I think the US needs a president who takes steps to limit the damage this virus has caused, continues to cause and will cause in the future unless an incompetent president is replaced with a competent one. If a lot more misery and death in the next few weeks is the price that has to be paid to remove the person exacerbating the COVID-19 crisis, I think that is a price worth paying in the short term.
 
FGITD
Posts: 1803
Joined: Wed Jun 15, 2016 1:44 pm

Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q3 2020

Wed Jul 29, 2020 2:39 pm

art wrote:
GDB wrote:
Yep, he's at it again with another 'cure' from a total quack;
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jrwOvap7uLo


With a bit of luck (from my point of view) Trump will bury his chances of re-election by pumping out propaganda that results in a runaway increase in infections and deaths in the remaining weeks leading up to the US election. That, I think, is the mostly likely way he will lose the election.

Am I being heartless? I don't think so. I think the US needs a president who takes steps to limit the damage this virus has caused, continues to cause and will cause in the future unless an incompetent president is replaced with a competent one. If a lot more misery and death in the next few weeks is the price that has to be paid to remove the person exacerbating the COVID-19 crisis, I think that is a price worth paying in the short term.


I’m not convinced it will be so simple. Given that parts of the U.S. thrive on anti-intellectualism and enjoy their "freedoms" so much.

we already know how to minimize the virus. Distance and masks. It's worked elsewhere, and it's even worked within the U.S. But somehow despite clear evidence that they work, they've become Democrat conspiracies and invasions of freedom.

Or once a viable vaccine comes out there's a surprisingly big anti vaccine movement, so many people won't get it.

So what are the options? There are options but people won't take them.

If you're standing in front of an oncoming train and I tell you I can either push you, or pull you out of the way but you say no to either...

Might be cold and harsh but if you're given options to help yourself don't use them, you fully deserve whatever you get.
 
94717
Posts: 2789
Joined: Tue Feb 06, 2007 3:38 am

Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q3 2020

Wed Jul 29, 2020 8:45 pm

The Swedish authorizes / Mr tegnel had the following comment today ;

The telework is here to stay, regardless of the Swedish National Agency's recommendations.

State epidemiologist Anders Tegnell thinks so.

- There are some who say that we never really get back to where we were, without this being a kind of kickoff to a more digital way of working, he says to DN.

With regard to the spread of infection this autumn, Tegnell does not believe that Sweden will return to a situation similar to the one we had in the spring.

However, local outbreaks will probably be seen in workplaces and in regions that have not had a large spread before, he says.

https://www.aftonbladet.se/nyheter/a/3J ... onaviruset
 
unscheduled
Posts: 40
Joined: Sun Jul 26, 2020 11:16 pm

Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q3 2020

Thu Jul 30, 2020 12:05 am

About November 1st, Trump will announce that the (mythical) new vaccine has now been proven to be safe and we have millions and millions of doses being shipped right now! The Pandemic is over folks. You can get your inoculation next week or so and it'll be free!

It'll be a great inoculation.
The Dems were wrong all along.

Next week.
 
T4thH
Posts: 1327
Joined: Thu Jun 06, 2019 11:17 pm

Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q3 2020

Thu Jul 30, 2020 12:55 am

New paper regarding long term harm of COVID-19 patients; University hospital Frankfurt, Germany.

What they have done: they have tested 100 patients with light to severe COVID-19 (after confirmed severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2), median age was 49 (45-53) years, with or without pre-existing conditions, with hospitalization or cured at home and CMR examination of the heart performed median 71 (64-92) days after positive COVID-19 result.
In short: 78 patients have/had myocardial involvement, 60 a still ongoing myocardial inflammation, even minimum 64 days after positive identification by PCR test.

Outcomes of Cardiovascular Magnetic Resonance Imaging in Patients Recently Recovered From Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19); Valentina O. Puntmann, MD, PhD1; M. Ludovica Carerj, MD1,2; Imke Wieters, MD3; et al; AMA Cardiol. Published online July 27, 2020. doi:10.1001/jamacardio.2020.3557


Conclusion:
Taken together, we demonstrate cardiac involvement in 78 patients (78%) and ongoing myocardial inflammation in 60 patients (60%) with recent COVID-19 illness, independent of preexisting conditions, severity and overall course of the acute illness, and the time from the original diagnosis. These findings indicate the need for ongoing investigation of the long-term cardiovascular consequences of COVID-19.


Original source:
https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamacardiology/fullarticle/2768916
The publication is not so "scientific", you can read and understand it (Introduction, Results Summary and Conclusion). Statistic methods...forget it.

The result is consistent to a recent University hospital Eppendorf, Hamburg, Germany, publication regarding post mortal examination of 39 patients, of them 75 % have had ongoing cardiac involvement/inflammation, when they have had died.
https://dzhk.de/en/news/latest-news/article/new-research-the-coronavirus-also-attacks-the-heart/

Till results pending: Asymptotic patients and pediatric patients.

It is getting more and more clear, everyone, who got COVID-19 with symptoms will not get out unharmed, the expectancy of life will be reduced and well-being is harmed. And if all "asymptotic cases" are always "asymptotic"....
The long list of permanent harm by COVID-19: lung, myocardial, cardiac vascular and vascular, kidney, brain/central nervous system, olfactory, ear/hearing, all forms of infarcts, starting with COVID-toes, embolism, strokes, cardiac and all other infarcts, often asymptotic as small (but destroyed/necrotic is destroyed/necrotic and ends up in a scar).... e.g.
 
Olddog
Posts: 1648
Joined: Sat Jun 25, 2016 4:41 pm

Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q3 2020

Thu Jul 30, 2020 11:56 am

Intersting article now that more data is available:
https://www.politico.eu/article/england ... -pandemic/
 
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Antaras
Posts: 1386
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q3 2020

Fri Jul 31, 2020 9:16 am

First death in Vietnam...

https://tuoitrenews.vn/news/society/20200731/vietnam-reports-first-covid19-death/55877.html
Vietnam reported its first death from novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) on Friday, a 70-year-old man with underlying kidney disease, the National Steering Committee for COVID-19 Prevention and Control announced.

It's a shame that we couldn't keep a clean sheet...
 
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Revelation
Posts: 26983
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q3 2020

Fri Jul 31, 2020 4:01 pm

Interesting article at https://www.reuters.com/article/us-heal ... SKCN24W1KD

Jist of it is a 19 year old feels a headache coming on but takes some medicine then goes out and parties with his friends at a seaside night club. Next day he goes to the doctor, a few days later the test is positive. Authorities trace 72 cases back to this one kid and his friends he parties with. Kid says "don't blame me, I did nothing illegal!".

It's a messed up world. People want to do what the bleep they want to do, but they also expect a hospital bed to be there for them when needed. We're all born free, but we're all born with responsibilities to ourselves and to others. The two go hand in hand. Most want the freedom but won't accept the responsibility.

If we make strict laws people say "you make too many laws, can't we let common sense prevail?". Then when we don't make laws and something bad happens they say "I did nothing illegal!". Very frustrating.
 
ltbewr
Posts: 15859
Joined: Thu Jan 29, 2004 1:24 pm

Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q3 2020

Fri Jul 31, 2020 4:18 pm

It is believed several outbreaks in my home state of New Jersey, pushing the R # to 1.14 as of 7/30, from large gatherings/parties of 'young' people indoors and outdoors without masks or social distancing. Airbnb is revising it rules at least for NJ to end possible 'party houses' after on in Jackson, NJ had 700 people showing up. The ones that rented the house are facing criminal charges. Two groups of lifeguards partying together have been another cluster. NJ Governor Murphy calls those at these parties trying to become 'members of the knucklehead hall of fame'.

I suspect the Governor will pull back on the numbers of people allowed to gather in one place, even outside, unless social distancing and masks are used. At some point I expect the Governor to call for people to rat out to police any large gathering without precautions, especially if a party, or an illegal indoor gathering. That may mean cuts on faith groups, but too many are hurting the State's ability to control the virus. To young people - you will have to put off any partying or trying to get laid until a vaccine has been widely distributed. Better that than be at your own or cannot go to a relative's or friends funeral.
 
737307
Posts: 2945
Joined: Tue Dec 26, 2017 6:27 pm

Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q3 2020

Fri Jul 31, 2020 4:37 pm

ltbewr wrote:
It is believed several outbreaks in my home state of New Jersey, pushing the R # to 1.14 as of 7/30, from large gatherings/parties of 'young' people indoors and outdoors without masks or social distancing. Airbnb is revising it rules at least for NJ to end possible 'party houses' after on in Jackson, NJ had 700 people showing up. The ones that rented the house are facing criminal charges. Two groups of lifeguards partying together have been another cluster. NJ Governor Murphy calls those at these parties trying to become 'members of the knucklehead hall of fame'.

I suspect the Governor will pull back on the numbers of people allowed to gather in one place, even outside, unless social distancing and masks are used. At some point I expect the Governor to call for people to rat out to police any large gathering without precautions, especially if a party, or an illegal indoor gathering. That may mean cuts on faith groups, but too many are hurting the State's ability to control the virus. To young people - you will have to put off any partying or trying to get laid until a vaccine has been widely distributed. Better that than be at your own or cannot go to a relative's or friends funeral.


Same here in Massachusetts. Partying kids ignoring COVID-19.
 
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CitizenJustin
Posts: 869
Joined: Thu Nov 30, 2017 10:12 am

Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q3 2020

Fri Jul 31, 2020 8:35 pm

FGITD wrote:
art wrote:
GDB wrote:
Yep, he's at it again with another 'cure' from a total quack;
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jrwOvap7uLo


With a bit of luck (from my point of view) Trump will bury his chances of re-election by pumping out propaganda that results in a runaway increase in infections and deaths in the remaining weeks leading up to the US election. That, I think, is the mostly likely way he will lose the election.

Am I being heartless? I don't think so. I think the US needs a president who takes steps to limit the damage this virus has caused, continues to cause and will cause in the future unless an incompetent president is replaced with a competent one. If a lot more misery and death in the next few weeks is the price that has to be paid to remove the person exacerbating the COVID-19 crisis, I think that is a price worth paying in the short term.


I’m not convinced it will be so simple. Given that parts of the U.S. thrive on anti-intellectualism and enjoy their "freedoms" so much.

we already know how to minimize the virus. Distance and masks. It's worked elsewhere, and it's even worked within the U.S. But somehow despite clear evidence that they work, they've become Democrat conspiracies and invasions of freedom.

Or once a viable vaccine comes out there's a surprisingly big anti vaccine movement, so many people won't get it.

So what are the options? There are options but people won't take them.

If you're standing in front of an oncoming train and I tell you I can either push you, or pull you out of the way but you say no to either...

Might be cold and harsh but if you're given options to help yourself don't use them, you fully deserve whatever you get.



I’ve heard a lot of nonsense about vaccines and microchips lately. Apparently, people now believe there’s tiny chips in vaccines that the government is using to track citizens. Completely absurd, but people are buying into it and this will prove problematic. They simultaneously believe the government is this all powerful entity, yet some moron in a basement has it all figured out. There’s a faction in this country that’s successfully trying to undermine all scientific truth. The people who believe in these conspiracies don’t realize that they’re actually part of the real conspiracy to discredit experts and truth itself. They lack the ability to see that they’re the sheep, not the people who still trust highly educated experts like Fauci.
 
737307
Posts: 2945
Joined: Tue Dec 26, 2017 6:27 pm

Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q3 2020

Fri Jul 31, 2020 9:31 pm

Thank goodness then that businesses can simply refuse people who refuse to get a vaccine. After al, "Anti-Vaxxers" are not a protected class ;)
 
M564038
Posts: 779
Joined: Sun Jan 03, 2016 11:16 am

Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q3 2020

Fri Jul 31, 2020 10:11 pm

Finally some (reputable)good news.
A german study shows up to 35% of people have partial T-cell immunity, probably from earlier corona virus infections (varieties of common cold).
This knowledge readjusts outlooks for flock imunity and might have impact on vaccines-development.
It also means it is less likely to see several reccuring waves to the degree feared.

Unfortunately some countriea might have more immunity than others, as these other corona-virues thrive more in some environments and countries than others.
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-020-2598-9
 
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Francoflier
Posts: 5941
Joined: Wed Oct 31, 2001 12:27 pm

Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q3 2020

Sat Aug 01, 2020 4:13 am

M564038 wrote:
Finally some (reputable)good news.
A german study shows up to 35% of people have partial T-cell immunity, probably from earlier corona virus infections (varieties of common cold).
This knowledge readjusts outlooks for flock imunity and might have impact on vaccines-development.
It also means it is less likely to see several reccuring waves to the degree feared.

Unfortunately some countriea might have more immunity than others, as these other corona-virues thrive more in some environments and countries than others.
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-020-2598-9


Interesting. It had been speculated before that a proportion of the population might have some built in immunity from other similar coronaviruses.
This would go some way into explaining why the infection waves seem to fall short of the initial catastrophic infection expectations. Meaningful immunity (enough to prevent second large waves) might be achieved much earlier.

Antaras wrote:
First death in Vietnam...

https://tuoitrenews.vn/news/society/20200731/vietnam-reports-first-covid19-death/55877.html
Vietnam reported its first death from novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) on Friday, a 70-year-old man with underlying kidney disease, the National Steering Committee for COVID-19 Prevention and Control announced.

It's a shame that we couldn't keep a clean sheet...


It is very sad, but in my opinion, no country will be able to hide from the virus forever. Those that haven't seen any propagation are still huge potential breeding grounds, and given the global prevalence of the virus and its infectiousness, they will struggle to prevent an eventual outbreak unless they manage to hold out until a vaccine, which may or may not come before the severe consequences of deep isolation and strict social measures take an irreparable toll on them.
 
94717
Posts: 2789
Joined: Tue Feb 06, 2007 3:38 am

Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q3 2020

Sat Aug 01, 2020 7:57 am

M564038 wrote:
Finally some (reputable)good news.
A german study shows up to 35% of people have partial T-cell immunity, probably from earlier corona virus infections (varieties of common cold).
This knowledge readjusts outlooks for flock imunity and might have impact on vaccines-development.
It also means it is less likely to see several reccuring waves to the degree feared.

Unfortunately some countriea might have more immunity than others, as these other corona-virues thrive more in some environments and countries than others.
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-020-2598-9


This means actually that the world will be able to fuction again.

The exprrience in Europe also shows that lockdowns can be used to handle the health care capacity but after lockdown it soon comes back.

Perhaps it is more efficient to invest in health care capacity then impose lockdowns?
 
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Francoflier
Posts: 5941
Joined: Wed Oct 31, 2001 12:27 pm

Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q3 2020

Sat Aug 01, 2020 10:38 am

olle wrote:
M564038 wrote:
Finally some (reputable)good news.
A german study shows up to 35% of people have partial T-cell immunity, probably from earlier corona virus infections (varieties of common cold).
This knowledge readjusts outlooks for flock imunity and might have impact on vaccines-development.
It also means it is less likely to see several reccuring waves to the degree feared.

Unfortunately some countriea might have more immunity than others, as these other corona-virues thrive more in some environments and countries than others.
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-020-2598-9


This means actually that the world will be able to fuction again.

The exprrience in Europe also shows that lockdowns can be used to handle the health care capacity but after lockdown it soon comes back.

Perhaps it is more efficient to invest in health care capacity then impose lockdowns?


That and finding ways to protect those most at risk.
 
melpax
Posts: 2197
Joined: Mon Apr 25, 2005 12:13 am

Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q3 2020

Sat Aug 01, 2020 11:31 am

Looking like the lockdown measures in Melbourne will be tightened, with an announcement possibly tomorrow.

Some of the rumours are non-essential businesses being forced to close, only 1 person per household being allowed allowed out of the house to shop, and being restricted to a 5km radius from your home when exercising & shopping.

Having visitors to your home was banned when the latest lockdown was announced 3 weeks ago, pubs were ordered shut again, and restaurants were only permitted to do take out & delivery. Mask wearing was made mandatory in Melbourne 2 weeks ago, and will be mandatory state-wide from Monday.

Melbourne is also virtually cut off from the rest of Victoria, and permits are required for Victorians to travel interstate - essential work is virtually the only reason people are allowed to cross state lines....

https://www.theage.com.au/national/vict ... 55hdg.html
 
joeblow10
Posts: 674
Joined: Mon Jun 04, 2018 11:58 pm

Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q3 2020

Sat Aug 01, 2020 1:58 pm

Revelation wrote:
Interesting article at https://www.reuters.com/article/us-heal ... SKCN24W1KD

Jist of it is a 19 year old feels a headache coming on but takes some medicine then goes out and parties with his friends at a seaside night club. Next day he goes to the doctor, a few days later the test is positive. Authorities trace 72 cases back to this one kid and his friends he parties with. Kid says "don't blame me, I did nothing illegal!".

It's a messed up world. People want to do what the bleep they want to do, but they also expect a hospital bed to be there for them when needed. We're all born free, but we're all born with responsibilities to ourselves and to others. The two go hand in hand. Most want the freedom but won't accept the responsibility.

If we make strict laws people say "you make too many laws, can't we let common sense prevail?". Then when we don't make laws and something bad happens they say "I did nothing illegal!". Very frustrating.


I’m not saying the kid did nothing wrong - but we were all 19 once. Would you have not gone out if all you had was a slight headache? I know I would’ve at that age.

People keep ragging on the kids. Frankly, what do you expect? Again, not saying it’s right, but at that age, nobody cares. Unlike the Spanish Flu, which did disproportionately target young adults, this isn’t - so why would the kids care? Unless they’re living with grandma... That’s where I do agree colleges shouldn’t be reopening - “no parties or social gatherings” says the administration, give it two weeks into school and see how well that turns out.
 
94717
Posts: 2789
Joined: Tue Feb 06, 2007 3:38 am

Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q3 2020

Sat Aug 01, 2020 5:42 pm

melpax wrote:
Looking like the lockdown measures in Melbourne will be tightened, with an announcement possibly tomorrow.

Some of the rumours are non-essential businesses being forced to close, only 1 person per household being allowed allowed out of the house to shop, and being restricted to a 5km radius from your home when exercising & shopping.

Having visitors to your home was banned when the latest lockdown was announced 3 weeks ago, pubs were ordered shut again, and restaurants were only permitted to do take out & delivery. Mask wearing was made mandatory in Melbourne 2 weeks ago, and will be mandatory state-wide from Monday.

Melbourne is also virtually cut off from the rest of Victoria, and permits are required for Victorians to travel interstate - essential work is virtually the only reason people are allowed to cross state lines....

https://www.theage.com.au/national/vict ... 55hdg.html



Australia / Melbourne lost the gamble of vaccine in time. Let us hope that the older and weak are now well prepared. Australia has got a good warning period so it should pretty well.
 
Toenga
Posts: 314
Joined: Thu Jan 23, 2020 2:55 am

Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q3 2020

Sat Aug 01, 2020 9:05 pm

olle wrote:
melpax wrote:
Looking like the lockdown measures in Melbourne will be tightened, with an announcement possibly tomorrow.

Some of the rumours are non-essential businesses being forced to close, only 1 person per household being allowed allowed out of the house to shop, and being restricted to a 5km radius from your home when exercising & shopping.

Having visitors to your home was banned when the latest lockdown was announced 3 weeks ago, pubs were ordered shut again, and restaurants were only permitted to do take out & delivery. Mask wearing was made mandatory in Melbourne 2 weeks ago, and will be mandatory state-wide from Monday.

Melbourne is also virtually cut off from the rest of Victoria, and permits are required for Victorians to travel interstate - essential work is virtually the only reason people are allowed to cross state lines....

https://www.theage.com.au/national/vict ... 55hdg.html



Australia / Melbourne lost the gamble of vaccine in time. Let us hope that the older and weak are now well prepared. Australia has got a good warning period so it should pretty well.


Firstly I earnestly wish Australia well in getting covid under control. I think they will succeed but only if they are single minded enough. The best health outcome is also the best economic outcome. Just let the economy take a back seat for a month or so, get back into health first.
Every day of measures not quite strong enough is a day of prolonging the misery
Elimination is worth it. Economists are constantly revising their figures downwards on the covid effects on our economy, expected unemployment now expected to peak at 8% and reduction of GDP about 5% in spite of overseas tourism being an important part of our economy.
And we are not dying.
Here in NZ we are watching Australia with extreme interest as so many of us have family on both sides of the Tasman. Also our economies are closely linked. A good outcome for Australia is also a good outcome for New Zealand.
We are watching intently.
What measures are deployed and their effectiveness in a Melbourne sized outbreak?
What measures are deployed and their effectiveness in the smaller Sydney sized outbreak?
And, What measures are deployed and their effectiveness in the two or three case outbreak in Brisbane?
These are all relevant scenarios for likely outbreaks here in NZ.
 
Kent350787
Posts: 2097
Joined: Wed May 28, 2008 12:06 am

Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q3 2020

Sun Aug 02, 2020 12:44 am

Toenga wrote:
[
What measures are deployed and their effectiveness in a Melbourne sized outbreak?
What measures are deployed and their effectiveness in the smaller Sydney sized outbreak?
And, What measures are deployed and their effectiveness in the two or three case outbreak in Brisbane?
These are all relevant scenarios for likely outbreaks here in NZ.


It's also a challenge given the different factors and responses involved. As far as we know:
- Melbourne's spread was form hotel quarantine and then across large (outside legal restrictions) community gatherings, with the spread undetected for sevaral weeks. Lockdowns have been the only realistic response.
- Sydney's was via an "essential services" traveller from Melbourne, socialising with symptoms. Eased restrictions in the hotel allowed further spread. Contact tracing and actively publicising venues possible infections have attended to promote further testing is holding new cases under 20 per day at this stage.
- Queensland's cases spread form Melbourne due to criminal enterprise. Leaving aside any other criminal allegations against the parties who brought the infection from Melbourne, they actively evaded border controls. Hopefully QUeensland can apply tracing resources in a siumilar way to NSW before there is significant community transmission.
 
MaverickM11
Posts: 18742
Joined: Thu Apr 06, 2000 1:59 pm

Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q3 2020

Sun Aug 02, 2020 3:29 am

flyguy89 wrote:
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/18/health/coronavirus-children-schools.html?fbclid=IwAR3SrLyksZfV4ZtSRPHosfPUnbCCsIbi-M2K1Wxvns64UEM2WB9gh7U7GeU

Exactly that. The mounting body of evidence says young school age children are not significant vectors for the viral transmission, so listen to the science. [/quote]
You feelin' lucky?

CDC: Children might play 'important role' in spreading COVID-19
https://thehill.com/policy/healthcare/p ... -spreading

"A total of 597 Georgia residents attended the summer camp in June. The camp imposed most but not all of the CDC’s guidelines to slow or prevent the spread of COVID-19.

Of the 344 test results that were available to the CDC, 260 — or 76 percent — were positive, indicating children might play an “important role” in transmitting the disease, according to the report."

And just a smattering of additional success stories:
https://twitter.com/DecoherenceWave/sta ... 9884372992
 
frmrCapCadet
Posts: 5139
Joined: Thu May 29, 2008 8:24 pm

Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q3 2020

Sun Aug 02, 2020 3:34 am

That Georgia 'experiment' is pretty significant. It forecasts what is likely to happen if schools open before we get this virus under control.
 
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casinterest
Posts: 14147
Joined: Sat Feb 12, 2005 5:30 am

Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q3 2020

Sun Aug 02, 2020 3:56 am

is Trump still pushing for school openings?

Not even his kid is going back to school in person.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/08/01/politics ... index.html
Montgomery County, Maryland, on Friday issued a directive demanding that private schools not conduct in-person learning until October 1. Barron Trump, who is slated to enter 9th grade in the fall, attends St. Andrew's Episcopal School, a private school in Potomac, Maryland, part of Montgomery County.
 
melpax
Posts: 2197
Joined: Mon Apr 25, 2005 12:13 am

Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q3 2020

Sun Aug 02, 2020 8:08 am

Melbourne has been placed under stage 4 restrictions from 8PM tonight, for 6 weeks.

New restrictions are;
8PM-5AM curfew for Melbourne Metro area, only exceptions to this are for work, health or compassionate grounds
Only 1 person per household allowed out of home per day for shopping, which must be done within a 5KM radius of your home
Exercise out of the home is only permitted for 1 hour each day, and must be done within a 5KM radius of home. Golf & tennis banned as a result.
Further restrictions on businesses to be announced tomorrow in addition to stage 3 restrictions already in place.
Wedding banned from Wednesday
Regional Victoria to have stage 3 restrictions reimposed from Wednesday.

https://www.news.com.au/lifestyle/healt ... 0ac8371c30
 
Toenga
Posts: 314
Joined: Thu Jan 23, 2020 2:55 am

Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q3 2020

Sun Aug 02, 2020 8:58 am

melpax wrote:
Melbourne has been placed under stage 4 restrictions from 8PM tonight, for 6 weeks.

New restrictions are;
8PM-5AM curfew for Melbourne Metro area, only exceptions to this are for work, health or compassionate grounds
Only 1 person per household allowed out of home per day for shopping, which must be done within a 5KM radius of your home
Exercise out of the home is only permitted for 1 hour each day, and must be done within a 5KM radius of home. Golf & tennis banned as a result.
Further restrictions on businesses to be announced tomorrow in addition to stage 3 restrictions already in place.
Wedding banned from Wednesday
Regional Victoria to have stage 3 restrictions reimposed from Wednesday.

https://www.news.com.au/lifestyle/healt ... 0ac8371c30


It will be tough. Hopefully though the trade off of intensity against duration will soon show in declining numbers. Seeing declining numbers makes lockdown a whole lot more tolerable. Just leave Scotty under his doona, it appears that he becomes scarce during flare ups anyway.
All the best.
 
ltbewr
Posts: 15859
Joined: Thu Jan 29, 2004 1:24 pm

Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q3 2020

Sun Aug 02, 2020 11:42 am

Toenga wrote:
melpax wrote:
Melbourne has been placed under stage 4 restrictions from 8PM tonight, for 6 weeks.

https://www.news.com.au/lifestyle/healt ... 0ac8371c30


It will be tough. Hopefully though the trade off of intensity against duration will soon show in declining numbers. Seeing declining numbers makes lockdown a whole lot more tolerable. Just leave Scotty under his doona, it appears that he becomes scarce during flare ups anyway.
All the best.

Sadly the return of such restriction levels will happen in much of the world, especially the USA, as the virus continues its way until herd immunity by enough infected or hopefully a working vaccine will be sufficiently distributed.
 
94717
Posts: 2789
Joined: Tue Feb 06, 2007 3:38 am

Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q3 2020

Sun Aug 02, 2020 1:00 pm

ltbewr wrote:
Toenga wrote:
melpax wrote:
Melbourne has been placed under stage 4 restrictions from 8PM tonight, for 6 weeks.

https://www.news.com.au/lifestyle/healt ... 0ac8371c30


It will be tough. Hopefully though the trade off of intensity against duration will soon show in declining numbers. Seeing declining numbers makes lockdown a whole lot more tolerable. Just leave Scotty under his doona, it appears that he becomes scarce during flare ups anyway.
All the best.

Sadly the return of such restriction levels will happen in much of the world, especially the USA, as the virus continues its way until herd immunity by enough infected or hopefully a working vaccine will be sufficiently distributed.


I totally agree. Has the countries like Australia and NZ tat closed down totally half a year ago increased the capacity of is health care? If not the closedowns will come with frequency. In Europe it took 6 weeks until the number of cases started to increase after the last lockdown and a peak of the second wave is expected end september first half october.


Will Europe close down again or will another strategy be followed? Eastern Europe, start to have its first wave now. The missing countries is actually Norway and Finland. Norway has started to have some outbreaks in its tourist industry that has been trying to open up like the hurtigrutt cruisers. Right now a full ship sits locked into one hotel. They have been visiting a number of stops and the question is if there will be a bigger outbreak in a few weeks time.
 
lowwkjax
Posts: 55
Joined: Sun Sep 02, 2018 10:52 am

Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q3 2020

Sun Aug 02, 2020 1:44 pm

I understand all safety concerns regarding a vaccine, but at this point in time I feel like it would be the smartest to way to just go ahead and start vaccinating people. Just don’t start with the so called risk groups, start with the young crowd who are the most affected ones at this time in most countries and who seem to be spreading it mostly right now, to them the risk is low enough to accept it, way lower than the risk of more young people transmitting it to older folks who would then be in serious trouble... we’ve found out enough to say the vaccine doesn’t kill people right away, it for sure helps way more than it could harm, so why aren’t we starting to use the doses we already have? If the German study is correct (cross immunity), the infection rates higher than officially announced, we could use the vaccine for a decent group and be done with it in a few weeks time from now (25% cross immunity, 25% prior infection, 25% vaccinated will give us a total of 75%, boom - herd immunity).

Am I missing something or is there someone actually agreeing with me?
 
User avatar
Francoflier
Posts: 5941
Joined: Wed Oct 31, 2001 12:27 pm

Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q3 2020

Sun Aug 02, 2020 1:54 pm

Toenga wrote:
melpax wrote:
Melbourne has been placed under stage 4 restrictions from 8PM tonight, for 6 weeks.

New restrictions are;
8PM-5AM curfew for Melbourne Metro area, only exceptions to this are for work, health or compassionate grounds
Only 1 person per household allowed out of home per day for shopping, which must be done within a 5KM radius of your home
Exercise out of the home is only permitted for 1 hour each day, and must be done within a 5KM radius of home. Golf & tennis banned as a result.
Further restrictions on businesses to be announced tomorrow in addition to stage 3 restrictions already in place.
Wedding banned from Wednesday
Regional Victoria to have stage 3 restrictions reimposed from Wednesday.

https://www.news.com.au/lifestyle/healt ... 0ac8371c30


It will be tough. Hopefully though the trade off of intensity against duration will soon show in declining numbers. Seeing declining numbers makes lockdown a whole lot more tolerable. Just leave Scotty under his doona, it appears that he becomes scarce during flare ups anyway.
All the best.


It will be very tought.

Going for elimination means having to keep the harsh restrictions in place pretty much until daily cases fall to 0, then wait 28 days from there. Right now, they are at a few hundred cases everyday...
This comes on the heels of an already punitive first lockdown earlier in the year (4 weeks if memory serves) plus the almost 4 weeks of initial stay at home measures since early July.

I wish them luck, this is definitely the most ambitious elimination attempt anywhere since the start of the crisis (if you don't count China, since no one really knows what goes on there...).
At least they kept the 'botttle shops' open...
 
melpax
Posts: 2197
Joined: Mon Apr 25, 2005 12:13 am

Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q3 2020

Sun Aug 02, 2020 2:44 pm

Francoflier wrote:
At least they kept the 'botttle shops' open...


If Dan ordered the bottle shops closed, there would have been riots!

Getting Serious, all of Melbourne has been back at stage 3 for the last 3 weeks, with some of the worst hit suburbs placed in lockdown over a month ago.

Bars/Pubs & Gyms were ordered re-closed when stage 3 was reimposed, and restaurants have been takeout & delivery only since then as well.

Restrictions on business will be announced tomorrow, looking like factories, etc will have output restrictions to reduce the number of staff required, and non-food & beverage retail being ordered to close their doors & go online only. One rumour doing the rounds is hardware stores only allowed to remain open to trade customers only. Restrictions on call centres were mentioned today as well.

Given that the stage 4 restrictions will be for at least 6 weeks, and restrictions will likely be eased gradually after then, wouldn't be suprised if restrictions are in place until the end of the year.....

An 'unrestricted' Christmas & New Year would be an unexpected & pleasant suprise to people here, given the current circumstances.
 
StarAC17
Posts: 4204
Joined: Thu Aug 07, 2003 11:54 am

Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q3 2020

Sun Aug 02, 2020 2:58 pm

lowwkjax wrote:
I understand all safety concerns regarding a vaccine, but at this point in time I feel like it would be the smartest to way to just go ahead and start vaccinating people. Just don’t start with the so called risk groups, start with the young crowd who are the most affected ones at this time in most countries and who seem to be spreading it mostly right now, to them the risk is low enough to accept it, way lower than the risk of more young people transmitting it to older folks who would then be in serious trouble... we’ve found out enough to say the vaccine doesn’t kill people right away, it for sure helps way more than it could harm, so why aren’t we starting to use the doses we already have? If the German study is correct (cross immunity), the infection rates higher than officially announced, we could use the vaccine for a decent group and be done with it in a few weeks time from now (25% cross immunity, 25% prior infection, 25% vaccinated will give us a total of 75%, boom - herd immunity).

Am I missing something or is there someone actually agreeing with me?


Do we know that the vaccine actually works to either stop the infection outright or reduce it to that of the common cold or an asymptomatic? A bad vaccine could make covid19 worse.
I think many of the leading vaccine candidates are in stage 3 trials now and some people are actually volunteering to be intentionally infected with covid19 to speed up the trial.
 
lowwkjax
Posts: 55
Joined: Sun Sep 02, 2018 10:52 am

Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q3 2020

Sun Aug 02, 2020 3:33 pm

StarAC17 wrote:
lowwkjax wrote:
I understand all safety concerns regarding a vaccine, but at this point in time I feel like it would be the smartest to way to just go ahead and start vaccinating people. Just don’t start with the so called risk groups, start with the young crowd who are the most affected ones at this time in most countries and who seem to be spreading it mostly right now, to them the risk is low enough to accept it, way lower than the risk of more young people transmitting it to older folks who would then be in serious trouble... we’ve found out enough to say the vaccine doesn’t kill people right away, it for sure helps way more than it could harm, so why aren’t we starting to use the doses we already have? If the German study is correct (cross immunity), the infection rates higher than officially announced, we could use the vaccine for a decent group and be done with it in a few weeks time from now (25% cross immunity, 25% prior infection, 25% vaccinated will give us a total of 75%, boom - herd immunity).

Am I missing something or is there someone actually agreeing with me?


Do we know that the vaccine actually works to either stop the infection outright or reduce it to that of the common cold or an asymptomatic? A bad vaccine could make covid19 worse.
I think many of the leading vaccine candidates are in stage 3 trials now and some people are actually volunteering to be intentionally infected with covid19 to speed up the trial.


We know that it actually worked/works with those who have been vaccinated during trials, we know they built antibodies and we know they built T-cells. And we know they didn’t die and we know they didn’t suffer severe side effects. And we’re not talking about a dozen teenagers, we’re talking about thousands of people around the globe already. While this would never justify mass vaccinations during “normal times”, I think we’ve reached the point where we can say “we don’t know if it’s 100% safe, but we know it is safe enough to start using it”, because if - sorry - a few people have troubles with the vaccine, it’d still be less than the number of people who die. Every single day. And I’m not even talking about the economy which is getting worse and worse, day by day, around the world.
 
LittleFokker
Posts: 1484
Joined: Sat Sep 28, 2013 10:25 pm

Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q3 2020

Sun Aug 02, 2020 4:12 pm

melpax wrote:
Melbourne has been placed under stage 4 restrictions from 8PM tonight, for 6 weeks.

New restrictions are;
8PM-5AM curfew for Melbourne Metro area, only exceptions to this are for work, health or compassionate grounds
Only 1 person per household allowed out of home per day for shopping, which must be done within a 5KM radius of your home
Exercise out of the home is only permitted for 1 hour each day, and must be done within a 5KM radius of home. Golf & tennis banned as a result.
Further restrictions on businesses to be announced tomorrow in addition to stage 3 restrictions already in place.
Wedding banned from Wednesday
Regional Victoria to have stage 3 restrictions reimposed from Wednesday.

https://www.news.com.au/lifestyle/healt ... 0ac8371c30


I have a cousin who lives in one of the Melbourne suburbs, and she was recently ticketed for venturing into a neighboring town. She was quite shocked.
 
Toenga
Posts: 314
Joined: Thu Jan 23, 2020 2:55 am

Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q3 2020

Sun Aug 02, 2020 8:39 pm

Francoflier wrote:
Toenga wrote:
melpax wrote:
Melbourne has been placed under stage 4 restrictions from 8PM tonight, for 6 weeks.

New restrictions are;
8PM-5AM curfew for Melbourne Metro area, only exceptions to this are for work, health or compassionate grounds
Only 1 person per household allowed out of home per day for shopping, which must be done within a 5KM radius of your home
Exercise out of the home is only permitted for 1 hour each day, and must be done within a 5KM radius of home. Golf & tennis banned as a result.
Further restrictions on businesses to be announced tomorrow in addition to stage 3 restrictions already in place.
Wedding banned from Wednesday
Regional Victoria to have stage 3 restrictions reimposed from Wednesday.

https://www.news.com.au/lifestyle/healt ... 0ac8371c30


It will be tough. Hopefully though the trade off of intensity against duration will soon show in declining numbers. Seeing declining numbers makes lockdown a whole lot more tolerable. Just leave Scotty under his doona, it appears that he becomes scarce during flare ups anyway.
All the best.


It will be very tought.

Going for elimination means having to keep the harsh restrictions in place pretty much until daily cases fall to 0, then wait 28 days from there. Right now, they are at a few hundred cases everyday...
This comes on the heels of an already punitive first lockdown earlier in the year (4 weeks if memory serves) plus the almost 4 weeks of initial stay at home measures since early July.

I wish them luck, this is definitely the most ambitious elimination attempt anywhere since the start of the crisis (if you don't count China, since no one really knows what goes on there...).
At least they kept the 'botttle shops' open...


The NZ elimination, from an admittedly smaller, but more widespread outbreak then the Victirian outbreak took a month of very stringent Wuhan like lockdown, to get zero community transmission. It was then that we relaxed to level 3 restrictions, the equivalent level to what Victoria had until yesterday. Two and a half weeks of level three had no community transmission detected. Family and cluster transmission only, which allowed relaxation to level two that allowed all businesses and schools to open, but with 2m social distancing. It was difficult, it was still very inhibiting. Two weeks later after no new cases whatsoever and the recovery of the last active case we removed all restrictions barring our border restrictions. At that time we had achieved 28 days of no community transmission. Currently about 15 a week infected returning New Zealanders are being detected within their 14day quarantine period.
Australia is in the very unenviable position that apart from Victoria, they had achieved elimination. Now the dilemma is do they let it reestablish throughout Australia, which likely near annialate their indigenous peoples, or do they go for elimination throughout? Given they had all but achieved elimination elsewhere. The decision is not helped by the unfortunate early emphatic stand by their PM, to save their economy and not to seek elimination but to go for suppression only, and is now having difficulty trying to explain the difference between his new target of sustained zero community transmission and elimination.
 
737307
Posts: 2945
Joined: Tue Dec 26, 2017 6:27 pm

Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q3 2020

Sun Aug 02, 2020 8:59 pm

LittleFokker wrote:
melpax wrote:
Melbourne has been placed under stage 4 restrictions from 8PM tonight, for 6 weeks.

New restrictions are;
8PM-5AM curfew for Melbourne Metro area, only exceptions to this are for work, health or compassionate grounds
Only 1 person per household allowed out of home per day for shopping, which must be done within a 5KM radius of your home
Exercise out of the home is only permitted for 1 hour each day, and must be done within a 5KM radius of home. Golf & tennis banned as a result.
Further restrictions on businesses to be announced tomorrow in addition to stage 3 restrictions already in place.
Wedding banned from Wednesday
Regional Victoria to have stage 3 restrictions reimposed from Wednesday.

https://www.news.com.au/lifestyle/healt ... 0ac8371c30


I have a cousin who lives in one of the Melbourne suburbs, and she was recently ticketed for venturing into a neighboring town. She was quite shocked.


Now they experience what is must have been for people living in Eastern Germany under Communist rule.
 
cpd
Posts: 6823
Joined: Sat Jun 28, 2008 4:46 am

Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q3 2020

Sun Aug 02, 2020 9:14 pm

Dieuwer wrote:
LittleFokker wrote:
melpax wrote:
Melbourne has been placed under stage 4 restrictions from 8PM tonight, for 6 weeks.

New restrictions are;
8PM-5AM curfew for Melbourne Metro area, only exceptions to this are for work, health or compassionate grounds
Only 1 person per household allowed out of home per day for shopping, which must be done within a 5KM radius of your home
Exercise out of the home is only permitted for 1 hour each day, and must be done within a 5KM radius of home. Golf & tennis banned as a result.
Further restrictions on businesses to be announced tomorrow in addition to stage 3 restrictions already in place.
Wedding banned from Wednesday
Regional Victoria to have stage 3 restrictions reimposed from Wednesday.

https://www.news.com.au/lifestyle/healt ... 0ac8371c30


I have a cousin who lives in one of the Melbourne suburbs, and she was recently ticketed for venturing into a neighboring town. She was quite shocked.


Now they experience what is must have been for people living in Eastern Germany under Communist rule.


Complete nonsense, absolute nonsense.

There is still a free media here, public debate is robust and people can still communicate freely.

This was brought on by idiots who would not grasp how serious the situation was and continued to try and do irresponsible things. Don’t go run parties, don’t try to run the borders and spread the virus further. Just stay at home, only make essential journeys and that’s it. But no, they couldn’t.

Maybe you want to get very sick with this virus as a political badge of devotion, I do not! I’ve voluntarily kept myself away from everyone as much as possible even though there isn’t a lockdown where I am.

The sooner everyone complies with these lockdowns voluntarily and acts cautiously, the sooner we might be able to move beyond this lockdown stage.
 
737307
Posts: 2945
Joined: Tue Dec 26, 2017 6:27 pm

Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q3 2020

Sun Aug 02, 2020 9:21 pm

cpd wrote:
Dieuwer wrote:
LittleFokker wrote:

I have a cousin who lives in one of the Melbourne suburbs, and she was recently ticketed for venturing into a neighboring town. She was quite shocked.


Now they experience what is must have been for people living in Eastern Germany under Communist rule.


Complete nonsense, absolute nonsense.

There is still a free media here, public debate is robust and people can still communicate freely.

This was brought on by idiots who would not grasp how serious the situation was and continued to try and do irresponsible things. Don’t go run parties, don’t try to run the borders and spread the virus further. Just stay at home, only make essential journeys and that’s it. But no, they couldn’t.

Maybe you want to get very sick with this virus as a political badge of devotion, I do not! I’ve voluntarily kept myself away from everyone as much as possible even though there isn’t a lockdown where I am.


Don't be hysterical.
Lock downs accomplish absolutely nothing, except that the virus simply abides time until the lock down is reversed. It is nothing more than a reactionary move by clueless officials who are doing nothing but moving goal posts.
The only sane thing to do would be to stick to the idea that you want to flatten the curve enough to not let hospitals being over run with COVID patients. And to do that, you need to slow down the spread of COVID to a manageable rate. Wear masks, wash your hands thoroughly and practice social distancing. That's it.
 
cpd
Posts: 6823
Joined: Sat Jun 28, 2008 4:46 am

Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q3 2020

Sun Aug 02, 2020 10:35 pm

Dieuwer wrote:
cpd wrote:
Dieuwer wrote:

Now they experience what is must have been for people living in Eastern Germany under Communist rule.


Complete nonsense, absolute nonsense.

There is still a free media here, public debate is robust and people can still communicate freely.

This was brought on by idiots who would not grasp how serious the situation was and continued to try and do irresponsible things. Don’t go run parties, don’t try to run the borders and spread the virus further. Just stay at home, only make essential journeys and that’s it. But no, they couldn’t.

Maybe you want to get very sick with this virus as a political badge of devotion, I do not! I’ve voluntarily kept myself away from everyone as much as possible even though there isn’t a lockdown where I am.


Don't be hysterical.
Lock downs accomplish absolutely nothing, except that the virus simply abides time until the lock down is reversed. It is nothing more than a reactionary move by clueless officials who are doing nothing but moving goal posts.
The only sane thing to do would be to stick to the idea that you want to flatten the curve enough to not let hospitals being over run with COVID patients. And to do that, you need to slow down the spread of COVID to a manageable rate. Wear masks, wash your hands thoroughly and practice social distancing. That's it.



That last bit is the thing people refuse to do. They won't wear masks either. Hence why the government had to take this heavy-handed approach. And besides, some of them even think this is a scamdemic or plandemic. If people had been sensible, we wouldn't be here. I'm being sensible and have been so since this whole entire thing started. I've taken reasonable precautions while everyone else whines about their civil liberties being curtailed. They'll have no civil liberties when they are in hospital and sick.
 
melpax
Posts: 2197
Joined: Mon Apr 25, 2005 12:13 am

Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q3 2020

Mon Aug 03, 2020 9:03 am

Stage 4 business restrictions in Melbourne have been announced.

Nearly all non-food & beverage retail to close, though they are able to operate on an online & click and collect basis. Main exceptions are banks, pharmacies, gas stations, post offices, newsagents & dry cleaners.
Hardware stores allowed to remain open to tradespeople, and the public is only allowed to purchase online/click & collect.
Abattoirs must cut their output by 1/3rd, and all staff to wear medical-style PPE & be subjected to regular testing.
Restrictions on numbers of workers on construction sites
With the 8PM-5AM curfew in Metro Melbourne, most supermarkets are now closing at 7.45PM, with the last customers allowed in at 7.30 so people can get home before curfew - all shopping must now be done within a 5KM radius of your home.
The Premier has warned of possible shortages saying that you might not be able to get what you want, but you can get what you'll need....

https://www.news.com.au/finance/busines ... 0bf9d7ca84
 
737307
Posts: 2945
Joined: Tue Dec 26, 2017 6:27 pm

Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q3 2020

Mon Aug 03, 2020 4:49 pm

cpd wrote:
Dieuwer wrote:
cpd wrote:

Complete nonsense, absolute nonsense.

There is still a free media here, public debate is robust and people can still communicate freely.

This was brought on by idiots who would not grasp how serious the situation was and continued to try and do irresponsible things. Don’t go run parties, don’t try to run the borders and spread the virus further. Just stay at home, only make essential journeys and that’s it. But no, they couldn’t.

Maybe you want to get very sick with this virus as a political badge of devotion, I do not! I’ve voluntarily kept myself away from everyone as much as possible even though there isn’t a lockdown where I am.


Don't be hysterical.
Lock downs accomplish absolutely nothing, except that the virus simply abides time until the lock down is reversed. It is nothing more than a reactionary move by clueless officials who are doing nothing but moving goal posts.
The only sane thing to do would be to stick to the idea that you want to flatten the curve enough to not let hospitals being over run with COVID patients. And to do that, you need to slow down the spread of COVID to a manageable rate. Wear masks, wash your hands thoroughly and practice social distancing. That's it.



That last bit is the thing people refuse to do. They won't wear masks either. Hence why the government had to take this heavy-handed approach. And besides, some of them even think this is a scamdemic or plandemic. If people had been sensible, we wouldn't be here. I'm being sensible and have been so since this whole entire thing started. I've taken reasonable precautions while everyone else whines about their civil liberties being curtailed. They'll have no civil liberties when they are in hospital and sick.


Well, I am not responsible for the bad behavior of other human beings.
But, perhaps instead of a general lock down, arrest those people that refuse to wear masks and refuse to social distance and place them under house arrest with an ankle clamp? Because it would be unfair to punish law abiding people if a few a-holes undermine everything.
 
User avatar
DIRECTFLT
Posts: 2718
Joined: Sat Jan 02, 2010 3:00 am

Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q3 2020

Mon Aug 03, 2020 5:08 pm

Texas Doctor Richard Bartlett's Covid treatment with Budesonide and a nebulizer

http://covidsilverbullet.com/

Case Study and Protocols

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3GHHULmkZgw
 
StarAC17
Posts: 4204
Joined: Thu Aug 07, 2003 11:54 am

Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q3 2020

Mon Aug 03, 2020 7:41 pm

cpd wrote:
Dieuwer wrote:
cpd wrote:

Complete nonsense, absolute nonsense.

There is still a free media here, public debate is robust and people can still communicate freely.

This was brought on by idiots who would not grasp how serious the situation was and continued to try and do irresponsible things. Don’t go run parties, don’t try to run the borders and spread the virus further. Just stay at home, only make essential journeys and that’s it. But no, they couldn’t.

Maybe you want to get very sick with this virus as a political badge of devotion, I do not! I’ve voluntarily kept myself away from everyone as much as possible even though there isn’t a lockdown where I am.


Don't be hysterical.
Lock downs accomplish absolutely nothing, except that the virus simply abides time until the lock down is reversed. It is nothing more than a reactionary move by clueless officials who are doing nothing but moving goal posts.
The only sane thing to do would be to stick to the idea that you want to flatten the curve enough to not let hospitals being over run with COVID patients. And to do that, you need to slow down the spread of COVID to a manageable rate. Wear masks, wash your hands thoroughly and practice social distancing. That's it.



That last bit is the thing people refuse to do. They won't wear masks either. Hence why the government had to take this heavy-handed approach. And besides, some of them even think this is a scamdemic or plandemic. If people had been sensible, we wouldn't be here. I'm being sensible and have been so since this whole entire thing started. I've taken reasonable precautions while everyone else whines about their civil liberties being curtailed. They'll have no civil liberties when they are in hospital and sick.


People have to play their part yes. However governments don't get off Scott-free here, we shut down in March and April under the goal of not overwhelming hospitals. Hospitals weren't overwhelmed, then the goalposts were moved to what is largely now unknown. Is is eradication, or keeping the R0 at 1 or less?

Granted many states in the US who gloated when NY was hit hard initially are know getting their first wave but that is because they had no restrictions at all, that was reckless as mass indoor gatherings were a problem from day one of this pandemic.

While masks were discouraged initially for the reason that they needed to secure them for first responders there was no good reason to wait until late June or July to mandate them. They should have been mandated in May when things started reopening. In Ontario the curve was flattened before the mandates started and the new cases are still the same daily, while masks have popular support time will tell how long that support lasts.

lowwkjax wrote:
StarAC17 wrote:
lowwkjax wrote:
I understand all safety concerns regarding a vaccine, but at this point in time I feel like it would be the smartest to way to just go ahead and start vaccinating people. Just don’t start with the so called risk groups, start with the young crowd who are the most affected ones at this time in most countries and who seem to be spreading it mostly right now, to them the risk is low enough to accept it, way lower than the risk of more young people transmitting it to older folks who would then be in serious trouble... we’ve found out enough to say the vaccine doesn’t kill people right away, it for sure helps way more than it could harm, so why aren’t we starting to use the doses we already have? If the German study is correct (cross immunity), the infection rates higher than officially announced, we could use the vaccine for a decent group and be done with it in a few weeks time from now (25% cross immunity, 25% prior infection, 25% vaccinated will give us a total of 75%, boom - herd immunity).

Am I missing something or is there someone actually agreeing with me?


Do we know that the vaccine actually works to either stop the infection outright or reduce it to that of the common cold or an asymptomatic? A bad vaccine could make covid19 worse.
I think many of the leading vaccine candidates are in stage 3 trials now and some people are actually volunteering to be intentionally infected with covid19 to speed up the trial.


We know that it actually worked/works with those who have been vaccinated during trials, we know they built antibodies and we know they built T-cells. And we know they didn’t die and we know they didn’t suffer severe side effects. And we’re not talking about a dozen teenagers, we’re talking about thousands of people around the globe already. While this would never justify mass vaccinations during “normal times”, I think we’ve reached the point where we can say “we don’t know if it’s 100% safe, but we know it is safe enough to start using it”, because if - sorry - a few people have troubles with the vaccine, it’d still be less than the number of people who die. Every single day. And I’m not even talking about the economy which is getting worse and worse, day by day, around the world.


We have evidence of an immune response yes but does it actually protect you and how effective it is. Judging from past corona-virus infections it seems that re-infection is possible but with lesser effects than the initial infection as the memory cells would kick in and fight the virus a lot faster. You would hopefully get a cold or less and are you contagious? These questions need answering, but thankfully I think the trials are going to do intentional exposure of Covid19 to see the response in real time. When normally with trials they put them back into the public and observe how they respond with natural interaction with the virus. With more effective treatments now available this can speed things up quite fast. If you are in fact re-infected with minimal symptoms and the virus hasn't mutated considerably then a vaccine with say 75% effectiveness will be enough as each additional exposure re-activates the immune response and acts as a natural booster. This is observed with the flu shot, you might still get the flu but you likely will escape the worst of the symptoms because of partial immunity.

https://www.businessinsider.com/16000-p ... ine-2020-5
 
PPVRA
Posts: 8613
Joined: Fri Nov 12, 2004 7:48 am

Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q3 2020

Mon Aug 03, 2020 8:12 pm

I keep hearing that people are refusing to wear masks. But all I see is people wearing masks. Where are the people not wearing masks?

Perhaps the media has found a few, but the vast majority of people are wearing masks...
 
User avatar
SheikhDjibouti
Posts: 2348
Joined: Sat Sep 30, 2017 4:59 pm

Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q3 2020

Mon Aug 03, 2020 9:12 pm

PPVRA wrote:
I keep hearing that people are refusing to wear masks. But all I see is people wearing masks. Where are the people not wearing masks?

Perhaps the media has found a few, but the vast majority of people are wearing masks...


Two of my children work in retail; one in a food store, the other general merchandise. One on the outskirts of a city, the other in a large town 30 miles away.

Both have come across idiots refusing to wear masks, but I will agree with you that these people are in a small minority.
Both have reported that these people also tend to be somewhat aggressive in defending their "rights".
Luckily, so far, no-one has been shot. Yet.

But this is just one small part of the planet; other states might have different stories.
 
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speedygonzales
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Joined: Thu Sep 13, 2007 5:01 pm

Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q3 2020

Tue Aug 04, 2020 8:10 am

The outbreak on MS Roald Amundsen where 36 crew members and 6 passengers have tested positive so far is being linked to failure to observe quarantine rules for 16 Filipino crew members.
https://www.aftenposten.no/norge/i/JoVg ... rskrevende (in Norwegian)
 
94717
Posts: 2789
Joined: Tue Feb 06, 2007 3:38 am

Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q3 2020

Tue Aug 04, 2020 9:21 am

speedygonzales wrote:
The outbreak on MS Roald Amundsen where 36 crew members and 6 passengers have tested positive so far is being linked to failure to observe quarantine rules for 16 Filipino crew members.
https://www.aftenposten.no/norge/i/JoVg ... rskrevende (in Norwegian)



They has been going up and down stopping on several locations in norway.

Norway has been very restructive with travels to and from other countries together with finland. Compared to example sweden. Is this the start of a complicated fall?
 
M564038
Posts: 779
Joined: Sun Jan 03, 2016 11:16 am

Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q3 2020

Tue Aug 04, 2020 9:23 am

This is a sad outbreak. This is a cruise ship run as a side- business by the traditional norwegian coastal ship service that enjoys a particular high level of trust and stature along the coast since the 1800s.
Their handling of the quarantine, their lack of proper response, information and attempted of cover-up new-public-management-style, has left their name and reputation permanently damaged. Very sad. I have travelled with them a lot over the years.

speedygonzales wrote:
The outbreak on MS Roald Amundsen where 36 crew members and 6 passengers have tested positive so far is being linked to failure to observe quarantine rules for 16 Filipino crew members.
https://www.aftenposten.no/norge/i/JoVg ... rskrevende (in Norwegian)

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