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cpd
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q3 2020

Tue Aug 04, 2020 11:45 am

PPVRA wrote:
I keep hearing that people are refusing to wear masks. But all I see is people wearing masks. Where are the people not wearing masks?

Perhaps the media has found a few, but the vast majority of people are wearing masks...


I went to get groceries Sunday night. I wore a mask, didn’t see many others in the supermarket wearing them.
 
flyguy89
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q3 2020

Tue Aug 04, 2020 5:17 pm

PPVRA wrote:
I keep hearing that people are refusing to wear masks. But all I see is people wearing masks. Where are the people not wearing masks?

Perhaps the media has found a few, but the vast majority of people are wearing masks...

I've also seen pretty universal compliance where I'm at every time I've been in public (save for a few that had the mask down below their nose.

Funnily enough however, I did have an encounter last month. I'm a very diligent mask-wearer, as are my friends, and one evening about three of us met up for pizza at a restaurant with outdoor seating along the sidewalk...there was one other family there at least 20-30 feet away. We all wore our masks as we were seated and until we got our beers. As we were drinking our beers our server walked over to check on us, when all of a sudden this girl in a car on the street rolled down her window and started screaming at us for not wearing masks and how we were endangering our server's life etc...suffice it to say the torrent of obscenities my friends and I unleashed on her finally got her to drive off while flipping us the bird, of course :rotfl:
 
Chemist
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q3 2020

Tue Aug 04, 2020 5:58 pm

You can't really conclude anything from these super telephoto photos. They might actually have been properly socially distanced.
 
flyguy89
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q3 2020

Tue Aug 04, 2020 5:59 pm

Looks like Europe is now seeing a resurgence, particularly Spain (5,000 new cases reported today alone), Belgium, and the Netherlands. Germany is still looking good, France has been reporting some higher case numbers however although I haven't found reliable daily case reporting there.

Chemist wrote:
You can't really conclude anything from these super telephoto photos. They might actually have been properly socially distanced.

:checkmark: These types of photos are deceptive. Having been to the beach recently, we had ample spacing between people (more than 6ft.), however if someone took a photo from the right angle, it would have looked like a huddled crowed. Add to that the fact that it's outside with an ocean breeze...pretty low risk.
 
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casinterest
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q3 2020

Tue Aug 04, 2020 9:06 pm

For those that want to open the schools.
This is what we will see all Fall.


https://www.wral.com/coronavirus/thales ... /19219309/
A fourth-grader at Thales Academy in Wake Forest tested positive for the novel coronavirus, leading to a 14-day quarantine for all fourth-grade students and teachers.

Thales spokeswoman Holly Clark said the student, who showed no symptoms while at school and passed daily temperature and symptom checks, contracted the virus from a family member.
Where ever you go, there you are.
 
StarAC17
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q3 2020

Wed Aug 05, 2020 4:04 am

Chemist wrote:
You can't really conclude anything from these super telephoto photos. They might actually have been properly socially distanced.


Correct, you need an Arial shot of the beach to see if they are actually distanced.

This is one of the things that you can blame the media for which creates fear or shaming of people for apparent social distancing violations when they are actually pretty minor
Engineers Rule The World!!!!!
 
Kent350787
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q3 2020

Wed Aug 05, 2020 6:38 am

StarAC17 wrote:
Chemist wrote:
You can't really conclude anything from these super telephoto photos. They might actually have been properly socially distanced.


Correct, you need an Arial shot of the beach to see if they are actually distanced.

This is one of the things that you can blame the media for which creates fear or shaming of people for apparent social distancing violations when they are actually pretty minor


It makes for sales though. Beaches in Sydney were closed early on at least partly as a result of close cropped shots, and every actvity that's supposedly "crowded" according to media reporting (exercise, shopping) is linked with a close cropped long lens shot that shows nothing of the sort.

The hard lockdown of Victoria Australia has now started - it will be interesting to see how long it takes for new case numbers to reduce from the current 7 day average of around 630. The second highest daily average, in our most populous state of New South Wales, is just over 12.
S340/J31/146-300/F27/F50/Nord 262/Q100/200/E195/733/734/738/744/762/763/77W/788/789/320/321/332/333/345/359
 
frmrCapCadet
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q3 2020

Thu Aug 06, 2020 3:54 pm

Here is a link from Huffington. It discusses at length how US culture will change over the course of the next few years. It is surprisingly well done.
https://www.huffpost.com/entry/life-aft ... 7a55ed7b2c
Buffet: the airline business...has eaten up capital...like..no other (business)
 
olle
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q3 2020

Thu Aug 06, 2020 11:06 pm

The Norwegian case of the "Hurtigrutt" is very special.

First they have blamed every Norwegian flying to Spain or even worse go to Sweden and shop, the "harry" trade for everything bad.

Now we have a situation where the most classical Norwegian, the "hurtigrutt" has stayed in more or less every city and town on the Norwegian coastline with sick people onboard.

While it cannot be Norwegians who brought the sickness it must be the low paid Philippine crew that brought the mess.

Now they has put the tourists on hotels and noone in Norway are willing to get them out and home. Not airlines, trains nothing. They are stucked there. Wellcome to Norway!

Noone in the management wanted to tell the customers so one customer was even partying on the main party street "aker brygge" in Oslo when he saw on the news that it was not very smart that he was in a middle of a crowded bar and should go in quarantine... You cannot make it up.

This must be the biggest scandal for a long time in norway...

By the way one Pandemic expert in norway has got his son daughter giving a party in the house and now a number of teenage are sick. Nice day at work for that expert ;-)
Last edited by olle on Thu Aug 06, 2020 11:11 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
olle
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q3 2020

Thu Aug 06, 2020 11:44 pm

We had a discussion a few month back regarding if USA was going to get in total 100 000 dead.

This was considered to high and impossible number.


Now there comes numbers showing that by christmas USA will have around 300 000 dead;

https://edition.cnn.com/2020/08/06/heal ... index.html
 
Dieuwer
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q3 2020

Thu Aug 06, 2020 11:47 pm

olle wrote:
We had a discussion a few month back regarding if USA was going to get in total 100 000 dead.

This was considered to high and impossible number.


Now there comes numbers showing that by christmas USA will have around 300 000 dead;

https://edition.cnn.com/2020/08/06/heal ... index.html


By then Europe could also be well over 300,000 deaths. Europe is now at about 190,000 deaths and US at 163,000 deaths.
Brazil is inches away from crossing the 100,000 deaths threshold.
 
olle
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q3 2020

Thu Aug 06, 2020 11:51 pm

Dieuwer wrote:
olle wrote:
We had a discussion a few month back regarding if USA was going to get in total 100 000 dead.

This was considered to high and impossible number.


Now there comes numbers showing that by christmas USA will have around 300 000 dead;

https://edition.cnn.com/2020/08/06/heal ... index.html


By then Europe could also be well over 300,000 deaths. Europe is now at about 190,000 deaths and US at 163,000 deaths.
Brazil is inches away from crossing the 100,000 deaths threshold.


Europe is about to enter a big second wave.

The question is regarding number of dead is how the older and weak are protected. It seems like a huge number of young 20-29 years old could calm down the wave if the older is protected.

Now the worse hit is the countries that has not got a big first wave like Australia, Eastern Europe.
 
olle
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q3 2020

Thu Aug 06, 2020 11:55 pm

The funny is that Sweden is right now one of the few examples where everying go better...

https://ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?ar ... lues=cases

There is a summer problem with young people 20-29 years old but number of dead and people in intensive care getting close to 0.


https://ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?ar ... ues=deaths


To be honest I even think that the Swedish authorizes are not to negative to let some young people getting sick before the fall in order to protect the older. Noone want the complicated cases increased again.
 
GDB
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q3 2020

Fri Aug 07, 2020 10:09 am

Trump's belittling, attacking of the Dr Fauci has consequences beyond greatly undermining dealing with the pandemic;

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/ ... oronavirus

Only in Trump's 'own the Libs' 'Merica.
 
M564038
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q3 2020

Fri Aug 07, 2020 10:37 am

*Hurtigruten (The fast line) =Norwegian coastal steamers since late 1800s.

Although the ship in question was a cruise ship owned by the same company, and not in regular coastal traffic.

In short the filipino crew, with company and ship doctor permission, didn’t adhere to quarantine or distancing in the crew areas of the ship. Result?
55 cases, out of which luckily only a few were passengers dispersing after the trip, so hopefully containable. The ship doctor has been relieved of his duties for not following instructions of the local health authorities, and the company leadership is under heavy national press scrutiny after trying to put a lid on it for several days after advice from their PR-people.

All in all a real PR-disaster for what is considered a national treasure. (Think SAS+Norwegian x 1000 in National Prestige)

Other recent cases in the country are holiday imported from Denmark and Spain, as well as several cases of Swedish health specialists allowed to work in hospitals without adhering to quarantine having the virus.

olle wrote:
The Norwegian case of the "Hurtigrutt" is very special.

First they have blamed every Norwegian flying to Spain or even worse go to Sweden and shop, the "harry" trade for everything bad.

Now we have a situation where the most classical Norwegian, the "hurtigrutt" has stayed in more or less every city and town on the Norwegian coastline with sick people onboard.

While it cannot be Norwegians who brought the sickness it must be the low paid Philippine crew that brought the mess.

Now they has put the tourists on hotels and noone in Norway are willing to get them out and home. Not airlines, trains nothing. They are stucked there. Wellcome to Norway!

Noone in the management wanted to tell the customers so one customer was even partying on the main party street "aker brygge" in Oslo when he saw on the news that it was not very smart that he was in a middle of a crowded bar and should go in quarantine... You cannot make it up.

This must be the biggest scandal for a long time in norway...

By the way one Pandemic expert in norway has got his son daughter giving a party in the house and now a number of teenage are sick. Nice day at work for that expert ;-)
 
olle
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q3 2020

Fri Aug 07, 2020 11:02 am

M564038 wrote:
*Hurtigruten (The fast line) =Norwegian coastal steamers since late 1800s.

Although the ship in question was a cruise ship owned by the same company, and not in regular coastal traffic.

In short the filipino crew, with company and ship doctor permission, didn’t adhere to quarantine or distancing in the crew areas of the ship. Result?
55 cases, out of which luckily only a few were passengers dispersing after the trip, so hopefully containable. The ship doctor has been relieved of his duties for not following instructions of the local health authorities, and the company leadership is under heavy national press scrutiny after trying to put a lid on it for several days after advice from their PR-people.

All in all a real PR-disaster for what is considered a national treasure. (Think SAS+Norwegian x 1000 in National Prestige)

Other recent cases in the country are holiday imported from Denmark and Spain, as well as several cases of Swedish health specialists allowed to work in hospitals without adhering to quarantine having the virus.

olle wrote:
The Norwegian case of the "Hurtigrutt" is very special.

First they have blamed every Norwegian flying to Spain or even worse go to Sweden and shop, the "harry" trade for everything bad.

Now we have a situation where the most classical Norwegian, the "hurtigrutt" has stayed in more or less every city and town on the Norwegian coastline with sick people onboard.

While it cannot be Norwegians who brought the sickness it must be the low paid Philippine crew that brought the mess.

Now they has put the tourists on hotels and noone in Norway are willing to get them out and home. Not airlines, trains nothing. They are stucked there. Wellcome to Norway!

Noone in the management wanted to tell the customers so one customer was even partying on the main party street "aker brygge" in Oslo when he saw on the news that it was not very smart that he was in a middle of a crowded bar and should go in quarantine... You cannot make it up.

This must be the biggest scandal for a long time in norway...

By the way one Pandemic expert in norway has got his son daughter giving a party in the house and now a number of teenage are sick. Nice day at work for that expert ;-)


How does this explains that there seems to be more ships in the same situation?
 
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VTKillarney
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q3 2020

Fri Aug 07, 2020 9:33 pm

Democrat Governor Cuomo has authorized the reopening of New York schools.
https://www.wcax.com/2020/08/07/cuomo-c ... refully-2/
 
MaverickM11
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q3 2020

Fri Aug 07, 2020 9:57 pm

GDB wrote:
Trump's belittling, attacking of the Dr Fauci has consequences beyond greatly undermining dealing with the pandemic;

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/ ... oronavirus

Only in Trump's 'own the Libs' 'Merica.

...that plus claiming children are "almost immune" as they start to infect--I mean--return to school.

Facebook and Twitter remove video of Trump falsely claiming children are "almost immune" to the coronavirus
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/facebook-t ... ronavirus/

Just stellar.
I don't take responsibility at all
 
GDB
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q3 2020

Sat Aug 08, 2020 8:38 am

Superspreader dummies alert!
(And before the usual suspects chime in with 'but...but....protestors', note what witnesses to this event say. Unlike the majority of those protestors none of these pretend macho clowns are masked up).

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/202 ... s-pandemic
 
ltbewr
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q3 2020

Sat Aug 08, 2020 10:51 am

We are facing the greatest threat to our country since the Great Depression or even from the Civil War from the mix of the deadly Covid-19 pandemic, an economic Depression, 20%+ true unemployment, a million businesses destroyed, a severely divided country, a grossly incompetent President and a Congress that is paralyzed.

My fear is that it will get much worse, with 500,000 dead from not only from infection of Covid-19, but suicide, homeless, hunger by January unless something gives. Do you want mass protests far larger and possible riots by millions despite for food ? Do you want state and local governments to go bankrupt so can't run schools, or even police departments, unsafe water and so on ? Health care turn to something like a 3rd World country ? We are on that road to Perdition we may end up in unless decisive deals are done
 
olle
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q3 2020

Sat Aug 08, 2020 12:13 pm

ltbewr wrote:
We are facing the greatest threat to our country since the Great Depression or even from the Civil War from the mix of the deadly Covid-19 pandemic, an economic Depression, 20%+ true unemployment, a million businesses destroyed, a severely divided country, a grossly incompetent President and a Congress that is paralyzed.

My fear is that it will get much worse, with 500,000 dead from not only from infection of Covid-19, but suicide, homeless, hunger by January unless something gives. Do you want mass protests far larger and possible riots by millions despite for food ? Do you want state and local governments to go bankrupt so can't run schools, or even police departments, unsafe water and so on ? Health care turn to something like a 3rd World country ? We are on that road to Perdition we may end up in unless decisive deals are done


The next 10 years will be a challange. That is for sure.

The next 2-3 years will be a fight to keep the economy of such level so we do not have 20% unemployment while covid is going on. Then there will be economy, unstable nations etc. 2020 to 2040 might be very similar to 1920s starting with starvation in central europe again but this time ME, Asia Latin America

Therefore I think USA and EU has an obligation to work together for giving examples of good governance and practices.
 
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scbriml
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q3 2020

Sat Aug 08, 2020 12:25 pm

VTKillarney wrote:
Democrat Governor Cuomo has authorized the reopening of New York schools.
https://www.wcax.com/2020/08/07/cuomo-c ... refully-2/


So Cuomo does what Trump's been calling for - open the schools.

Out of interest, who will you blame if there's a massive spike in cases as a result of schools opening?
Time flies like an arrow. Fruit flies like a banana!
There are 10 types of people in the World - those that understand binary and those that don't.
 
MaverickM11
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q3 2020

Sat Aug 08, 2020 2:06 pm

scbriml wrote:
VTKillarney wrote:
Democrat Governor Cuomo has authorized the reopening of New York schools.
https://www.wcax.com/2020/08/07/cuomo-c ... refully-2/


So Cuomo does what Trump's been calling for - open the schools.

Out of interest, who will you blame if there's a massive spike in cases as a result of schools opening?

Obama/antifa. The usual.
I don't take responsibility at all
 
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Francoflier
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q3 2020

Sat Aug 08, 2020 2:36 pm

ltbewr wrote:
We are facing the greatest threat to our country since the Great Depression or even from the Civil War from the mix of the deadly Covid-19 pandemic, an economic Depression, 20%+ true unemployment, a million businesses destroyed, a severely divided country, a grossly incompetent President and a Congress that is paralyzed.


While this is mostly true, it is of note that the catastrophic economic consequences of the virus are due to our reaction to the virus, not the virus itself.

Regardless of how the virus spread is managed, the economic consequences will be there. In fact, the stronger the measures, the deeper the economic crunch.

It is fine to say that you need proper management, as it is true, but there needs to be a realization that this management needs to balance the medical consequences of the outbreak AND the livelihoods of the population at large.

It is not an easy crisis to manage, but it helps to maintain a bit of circumspection and cynicism rather than fall into extremes.
It doesn't help that in the US, the deep political division has found its way into the Covid crisis.
I'll do my own airline. With Blackjack. And hookers. In fact, forget the airline.
 
Dieuwer
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q3 2020

Sat Aug 08, 2020 8:11 pm

Francoflier wrote:
ltbewr wrote:
We are facing the greatest threat to our country since the Great Depression or even from the Civil War from the mix of the deadly Covid-19 pandemic, an economic Depression, 20%+ true unemployment, a million businesses destroyed, a severely divided country, a grossly incompetent President and a Congress that is paralyzed.


While this is mostly true, it is of note that the catastrophic economic consequences of the virus are due to our reaction to the virus, not the virus itself.

Regardless of how the virus spread is managed, the economic consequences will be there. In fact, the stronger the measures, the deeper the economic crunch.

It is fine to say that you need proper management, as it is true, but there needs to be a realization that this management needs to balance the medical consequences of the outbreak AND the livelihoods of the population at large.

It is not an easy crisis to manage, but it helps to maintain a bit of circumspection and cynicism rather than fall into extremes.
It doesn't help that in the US, the deep political division has found its way into the Covid crisis.


There is no need to wholesale shutdown a country because of a virus.
We more or less know how COVID-19 spreads, and that can be addressed without destroying the livelihoods of people.
I would say most of the jobs can be done safely, with wearing masks and social distance measures. Work from home if you can. Sure, some businesses cannot open such a movie theaters, but then again many people were already watching movies from home (e.g. Netflix) and movie theaters were going the way of the Dodo anyway.
 
Toenga
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q3 2020

Sat Aug 08, 2020 9:19 pm

Francoflier wrote:
ltbewr wrote:
We are facing the greatest threat to our country since the Great Depression or even from the Civil War from the mix of the deadly Covid-19 pandemic, an economic Depression, 20%+ true unemployment, a million businesses destroyed, a severely divided country, a grossly incompetent President and a Congress that is paralyzed.


While this is mostly true, it is of note that the catastrophic economic consequences of the virus are due to our reaction to the virus, not the virus itself.

Regardless of how the virus spread is managed, the economic consequences will be there. In fact, the stronger the measures, the deeper the economic crunch.

It is fine to say that you need proper management, as it is true, but there needs to be a realization that this management needs to balance the medical consequences of the outbreak AND the livelihoods of the population at large.

It is not an easy crisis to manage, but it helps to maintain a bit of circumspection and cynicism rather than fall into extremes.
It doesn't help that in the US, the deep political division has found its way into the Covid crisis.


Sweden is a very interesting case, to study in contrast to my own country which has implemented a diametrically opposite path.
It appears that the economy of Sweden has taken a larger hit then the New Zealand economy.
Although social isolation methods were not by government direction in Sweden, self preservation, has meant the social isolation occurring anyway has dampened domestic business activity regardless. All countries are suffering the downturn in world trade, and tourism income regardless of their national restrictions, as employment loss, productivity losses, and increased medical expenditure sucks so much discretionary spending worldwide.
These effects are beyond the control of any national government.
I do not know the current health outcomes in Sweden, but here in NZ excess covid deaths, is actually the other way round. Less people have died this year then last year. Suicide rates supprisingly declined during lockdown. We have less flu circulating this winter, and normal hospital and medical services were only disrupted for 7 weeks. Unemployment will peak, probably early next year, but expected to remain comfortably under 10% which is amazing seeing inbound tourism is a large contributor to our economy.
So while we are taking some time out from the international sphere, medical science is continualy advancing with better prevention and treatment regimes to reduce the effects.
 
olle
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q3 2020

Sun Aug 09, 2020 11:17 am

Toenga wrote:
Francoflier wrote:
ltbewr wrote:
We are facing the greatest threat to our country since the Great Depression or even from the Civil War from the mix of the deadly Covid-19 pandemic, an economic Depression, 20%+ true unemployment, a million businesses destroyed, a severely divided country, a grossly incompetent President and a Congress that is paralyzed.


While this is mostly true, it is of note that the catastrophic economic consequences of the virus are due to our reaction to the virus, not the virus itself.

Regardless of how the virus spread is managed, the economic consequences will be there. In fact, the stronger the measures, the deeper the economic crunch.

It is fine to say that you need proper management, as it is true, but there needs to be a realization that this management needs to balance the medical consequences of the outbreak AND the livelihoods of the population at large.

It is not an easy crisis to manage, but it helps to maintain a bit of circumspection and cynicism rather than fall into extremes.
It doesn't help that in the US, the deep political division has found its way into the Covid crisis.


Sweden is a very interesting case, to study in contrast to my own country which has implemented a diametrically opposite path.
It appears that the economy of Sweden has taken a larger hit then the New Zealand economy.
Although social isolation methods were not by government direction in Sweden, self preservation, has meant the social isolation occurring anyway has dampened domestic business activity regardless. All countries are suffering the downturn in world trade, and tourism income regardless of their national restrictions, as employment loss, productivity losses, and increased medical expenditure sucks so much discretionary spending worldwide.
These effects are beyond the control of any national government.
I do not know the current health outcomes in Sweden, but here in NZ excess covid deaths, is actually the other way round. Less people have died this year then last year. Suicide rates supprisingly declined during lockdown. We have less flu circulating this winter, and normal hospital and medical services were only disrupted for 7 weeks. Unemployment will peak, probably early next year, but expected to remain comfortably under 10% which is amazing seeing inbound tourism is a large contributor to our economy.
So while we are taking some time out from the international sphere, medical science is continualy advancing with better prevention and treatment regimes to reduce the effects.


I will try as a swede to give some answers.

First the answers includes a lot of guessing while it will take time to have the full picture until 2023 and economy effect perhaps until the end of 2020s.

First as a reminder. Swedish government put a lot of recommendations that in other countries call rules. My experience from being in Sweden during spring 2020 and 1 of july driving Sweden, Germany, Belgium, France and now has stayed in Spain for 35 days is that recommendations in Sweden and rules in Germany are followed while rules in Belgium and france not as much.

Here in Spain it is a mixed picture.

Sweden early said that this is not a 100 meter sprint but a marathon probably over 24 to 36 month. Success in the start does not mean that success after 36 month is guaranteed. We also thanks to the international companies got Covid to special stockholm already in december 2019 which made the reaction in february too late with many death as result special old and weak.




Sweden had as perhaps the only EU country a growing GDP in Q1 and preliminary a negative Q2 of 8,6 but compared to most EU wiuth everage of a negative in Q1 and Q2 disaster over 12% I would say that the numbers are terrible but not as terrible.

I do not know so much about New Zeeland economy except a fantastic tourist landscape and nature and mining so I cannot really compare but Iwill try to explain the swedish ecomony very brief.

Sweden is we can say a small Germany. There is a lot of vehicle industry special heavy trucks where Scania / Traton and Volvo is world leaders, Telecommunications in Ericsson, Aviation Saab, Power / energy ABB etc etc.

During the crisis they were stopped. Not because of lockdown but because no components were sent from China, Germany, France USA etc. So the whole industry lost second half Q1 and first part Q2. I know that Scania for example started production with overtime when component situation allowed it and many workers in Sweden has been working 6 day weeks from May until the holidays started in July. So we expect this to be shown in Q3.

Then we have IT startup in special Stockholm generating names like Spotify, Primekey, Skype etc etc. In short term they worked from home but when the bigger industries closed many IT consultants were thrown out. The main goal for the government was to make this industry survive while so much of Swedish GDP increase comes from this areas and other services like music studios, banking etc.

Last we have the most complicated areas with service sectors like pubs, restaurants tourism etc. This is in Sweden a very big sector and has with the new weekend tourism exploded. From being tat all swedes went to greece and spain suddenly the world came to Scandinavia and baltics.

Stockholm copenhagen etc has changed dramatically with ships, ryanair easyjet making europe and coming to the cities around the baltics.

The problem is that while Scania can survive 6 month the family owned restaurant do not. and a lot of effort has been made in Sweden in contrast to Finland, Denmark and Norway to make them thru this crisis. If we are successful, we will see in 24 month.

So yes, Sweden is extremely depending both on export markets but also international suppliers connected with complicated chains. I do believe that there will be one lesson learned and much production moved from Asia to eastern europe, but it is what it is.

Now we see that the countries like denmark and norway that we have been compared with as a bad example having fast increasing numbers again. Let us see in 2 -3 month if they can keep the number of dead down.
 
olle
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Joined: Tue Feb 06, 2007 3:38 am

Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q3 2020

Sun Aug 09, 2020 12:53 pm

norway has after a week of fast increasing number of cases desired to close pubs after midnight. This was implemented last night with the effect that norway got crazy it seems with parties in the streets and at homes.

The police says it is not capable to enforce the new rule and government threatens to initiate a new lockdown;

- I am very concerned that young people and young adults have not realized how important a role they now play in the spread of infection, and thus take a very high risk by participating in and having this type of party, says Minister of Health Bent Høie to VG.

In several places in the country, the police had to break up parties with 100 or more participants on Sunday night .

- I think many people woke up today and realized that they were involved in something yesterday, which they would rather have been without. Then they now have the opportunity to take responsibility, by taking care and testing themselves for symptoms and keeping a good distance. It is important to remember that everyone can be infected without knowing it and without knowing the symptoms. Especially youth get milder symptoms.

The Minister of Health points out that even young people can become seriously ill from the coronavirus, in addition to the elderly and people at risk.

- Now it is important that you take personal responsibility and do not contribute to spreading the virus further.

ALSO READ
New party with corona infection in Oslo
May cause more shutdown
- It seems as if many young people have not realized that they are now a significant cause of the spread of infection. This may mean that we have to shut down society again. I hope that slowing down the reopening of society is enough to maintain control. But we are dependent on each individual taking responsibility, and young people now have a special responsibility, says Høie and emphasizes that he has faith in Norwegian youth.

https://www.vg.no/nyheter/innenriks/i/x ... tent=row-1
 
olle
Posts: 2257
Joined: Tue Feb 06, 2007 3:38 am

Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q3 2020

Sun Aug 09, 2020 1:12 pm

olle wrote:
Toenga wrote:
Francoflier wrote:

While this is mostly true, it is of note that the catastrophic economic consequences of the virus are due to our reaction to the virus, not the virus itself.

Regardless of how the virus spread is managed, the economic consequences will be there. In fact, the stronger the measures, the deeper the economic crunch.

It is fine to say that you need proper management, as it is true, but there needs to be a realization that this management needs to balance the medical consequences of the outbreak AND the livelihoods of the population at large.

It is not an easy crisis to manage, but it helps to maintain a bit of circumspection and cynicism rather than fall into extremes.
It doesn't help that in the US, the deep political division has found its way into the Covid crisis.


Sweden is a very interesting case, to study in contrast to my own country which has implemented a diametrically opposite path.
It appears that the economy of Sweden has taken a larger hit then the New Zealand economy.
Although social isolation methods were not by government direction in Sweden, self preservation, has meant the social isolation occurring anyway has dampened domestic business activity regardless. All countries are suffering the downturn in world trade, and tourism income regardless of their national restrictions, as employment loss, productivity losses, and increased medical expenditure sucks so much discretionary spending worldwide.
These effects are beyond the control of any national government.
I do not know the current health outcomes in Sweden, but here in NZ excess covid deaths, is actually the other way round. Less people have died this year then last year. Suicide rates supprisingly declined during lockdown. We have less flu circulating this winter, and normal hospital and medical services were only disrupted for 7 weeks. Unemployment will peak, probably early next year, but expected to remain comfortably under 10% which is amazing seeing inbound tourism is a large contributor to our economy.
So while we are taking some time out from the international sphere, medical science is continualy advancing with better prevention and treatment regimes to reduce the effects.


I will try as a swede to give some answers.

First the answers includes a lot of guessing while it will take time to have the full picture until 2023 and economy effect perhaps until the end of 2020s.

First as a reminder. Swedish government put a lot of recommendations that in other countries call rules. My experience from being in Sweden during spring 2020 and 1 of july driving Sweden, Germany, Belgium, France and now has stayed in Spain for 35 days is that recommendations in Sweden and rules in Germany are followed while rules in Belgium and france not as much.

Here in Spain it is a mixed picture.

Sweden early said that this is not a 100 meter sprint but a marathon probably over 24 to 36 month. Success in the start does not mean that success after 36 month is guaranteed. We also thanks to the international companies got Covid to special stockholm already in december 2019 which made the reaction in february too late with many death as result special old and weak.




Sweden had as perhaps the only EU country a growing GDP in Q1 and preliminary a negative Q2 of 8,6 but compared to most EU wiuth everage of a negative in Q1 and Q2 disaster over 12% I would say that the numbers are terrible but not as terrible.

I do not know so much about New Zeeland economy except a fantastic tourist landscape and nature and mining so I cannot really compare but Iwill try to explain the swedish ecomony very brief.

Sweden is we can say a small Germany. There is a lot of vehicle industry special heavy trucks where Scania / Traton and Volvo is world leaders, Telecommunications in Ericsson, Aviation Saab, Power / energy ABB etc etc.

During the crisis they were stopped. Not because of lockdown but because no components were sent from China, Germany, France USA etc. So the whole industry lost second half Q1 and first part Q2. I know that Scania for example started production with overtime when component situation allowed it and many workers in Sweden has been working 6 day weeks from May until the holidays started in July. So we expect this to be shown in Q3.

Then we have IT startup in special Stockholm generating names like Spotify, Primekey, Skype etc etc. In short term they worked from home but when the bigger industries closed many IT consultants were thrown out. The main goal for the government was to make this industry survive while so much of Swedish GDP increase comes from this areas and other services like music studios, banking etc.

Last we have the most complicated areas with service sectors like pubs, restaurants tourism etc. This is in Sweden a very big sector and has with the new weekend tourism exploded. From being tat all swedes went to greece and spain suddenly the world came to Scandinavia and baltics.

Stockholm copenhagen etc has changed dramatically with ships, ryanair easyjet making europe and coming to the cities around the baltics.

The problem is that while Scania can survive 6 month the family owned restaurant do not. and a lot of effort has been made in Sweden in contrast to Finland, Denmark and Norway to make them thru this crisis. If we are successful, we will see in 24 month.

So yes, Sweden is extremely depending both on export markets but also international suppliers connected with complicated chains. I do believe that there will be one lesson learned and much production moved from Asia to eastern europe, but it is what it is.

Now we see that the countries like denmark and norway that we have been compared with as a bad example having fast increasing numbers again. Let us see in 2 -3 month if they can keep the number of dead down.



If we compare some numbers UK just came out and it was -21% compared to sweden 8.6 for q2. Q1 was -2,2 % compared to a small increase in sweden. The article also shows that germany that from economy point of view sweden mirror did - 10.1%.

https://www.theguardian.com/business/20 ... p-among-g7

Some will say that it is a combination of brexit and some say covid...
 
Toenga
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q3 2020

Sun Aug 09, 2020 9:19 pm

Thanks Olle for the detailed replies explaining the situation in Sweden. Given the ongoing uncertainties of how both the Virus can be contained, and the worldwide economic, and social changes the pandemic is causing, the approach certainly seems to have potential long merit. To me it shows that rational analysis, even with the extremely limited information available at the early stages of the pandemic, a plan, and clear communication, of that plan, to it's people, works massively better then the "trust us we know what we are doing" strategy of so many governments, when patently they they neither had any idea what to do, and the coherence to do what was required.
I think NZ used the same process as Sweden, but because it's circumstances are different, the plan was radically different. Australia used a similar but softer version of the plan adopted in New Zealand, but then muddied the communications and implementation , because the plan itself was muddy, "health or the economy"? Now Australia is suffering more then NZ on both health and economic measures.
But to be fair to Australia, they are still in a vastly better place then most of the rest of the world.
They just need to settle on their goal for all of Australia and then get all of their states back to the same position. But first they must unambiguously settle on that position. Suppression or Elimination? Politicians need to grasp they are distinctly different in both strategies outcomes, and maintenance.
Because of the practical impossibility of continually shielding our indigenous communities and the potential dire consequences of covid to these peoples, the Swedish approach is a non starter in this part of the world.
 
olle
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q3 2020

Sun Aug 09, 2020 9:19 pm

The covid situation in Norway capital Oslo is now in such level that if the region were outside norway it would be red region and norwegians not allowed to be there without quaranine.

https://www.vg.no/nyheter/innenriks/i/V ... tent=row-1

Infection rates in Oslo: Higher than FHI's infection requirements to other countries
In the last two weeks, Oslo has registered 22.49 infections per 100,000 inhabitants, according to VG's overview. Thus, the infection rates in the municipality exceed the current requirement of the National Institute of Public Health for other countries and regions in the EU / EEA area to be "green".

In order for a country or area to become "green" and the quarantine requirement to be lifted, FHI's requirement is that there must be less than 20 infected per 100,000 inhabitants in the last 14 days.

In the last two weeks, Oslo Municipality has registered 22.49 infected per 100,000 inhabitants, according to VG's overview . Thus, it exceeds the requirement FHI has for an area outside Norway to become "green".

156 cases of infection have been registered in Oslo municipality in the last 14 days, according to VG's figures
 
StarAC17
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q3 2020

Mon Aug 10, 2020 5:00 pm

Dieuwer wrote:
Francoflier wrote:
ltbewr wrote:
We are facing the greatest threat to our country since the Great Depression or even from the Civil War from the mix of the deadly Covid-19 pandemic, an economic Depression, 20%+ true unemployment, a million businesses destroyed, a severely divided country, a grossly incompetent President and a Congress that is paralyzed.


While this is mostly true, it is of note that the catastrophic economic consequences of the virus are due to our reaction to the virus, not the virus itself.

Regardless of how the virus spread is managed, the economic consequences will be there. In fact, the stronger the measures, the deeper the economic crunch.

It is fine to say that you need proper management, as it is true, but there needs to be a realization that this management needs to balance the medical consequences of the outbreak AND the livelihoods of the population at large.

It is not an easy crisis to manage, but it helps to maintain a bit of circumspection and cynicism rather than fall into extremes.
It doesn't help that in the US, the deep political division has found its way into the Covid crisis.


There is no need to wholesale shutdown a country because of a virus.
We more or less know how COVID-19 spreads, and that can be addressed without destroying the livelihoods of people.
I would say most of the jobs can be done safely, with wearing masks and social distance measures. Work from home if you can. Sure, some businesses cannot open such a movie theaters, but then again many people were already watching movies from home (e.g. Netflix) and movie theaters were going the way of the Dodo anyway.


Here is my question regarding movie theaters and sports. Yes I can understand not full capacity but with these gatherings you aren't interacting with everyone and if you wear masks then I think the risk is rather minimal. Perhaps no changing seats and the contact information would have to be provided for each attendee.

Sure there might be a cluster but it would be rather small and the reason I say this is what we have observed from aviation. If there is a confirmed case on a plane and the person was sitting in seat 52E that person might infect the people around where they were sitting and even that really hasn't happened. There hasn't been a super-spreader event on a plane that I can recall.
Engineers Rule The World!!!!!
 
continental004
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q3 2020

Tue Aug 11, 2020 2:31 am

We as a society need to ACCEPT that COVID-19 is here to stay.

his virus is obviously not going anyway, the cat has long left the bag. So what we as a society must do is to learn to LIVE with it. We need to go back to the OLD normal; we need to OPEN TF UP and UNCANCEL everything! Let’s end this social distancing nonsense and put our masks away. Let the children go back to school and be around other children again, it’ll do them a world of good.

We as a society need to accept that we cannot control this virus. This virus is like a predator whose role is to thin the herd and trim the fat and eliminate the old, the weak, the sick, and the otherwise genetically inferior. We are constantly told to follow the science; so how about we follow this science: we must accept that some people are too old, weak or diseased to be kept alive and that some people are genetically inferior. In order for us to go back to normal we as society must be willing to sacrifice some lives to get our economy and society back to normal. We must stop being wimpy and being afraid of going out, traveling, and gathering in groups. If we are to get the economy back to normal and the population back to work, we must stop being such a pussified society. We must open our borders and get rid of these silly quarantine requirements. Healthy people should not be kept in quarantine with no freedom nor liberty. Only the sick must be quarantined.

My heart goes out to all those who have had their jobs lost and their lives unnecessarily disrupted because of this s***. We as a society need to listen to the science and ACCEPT that we cannot stop this virus and that we must sacrifice some lives. If anyone feels “unsafe” (teachers and the like) or “overwhelmed” (healthcare workers who knew what they signed up for) no one is stopping them from the door and quitting! I’m sure so many people would be clamoring for the job you “can’t do” because it’s “unsafe” !

We as a society need to stop messing with what we CANNOT conquer!
 
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Francoflier
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q3 2020

Tue Aug 11, 2020 2:42 am

continental004 wrote:
We as a society need to ACCEPT that COVID-19 is here to stay.

his virus is obviously not going anyway, the cat has long left the bag. So what we as a society must do is to learn to LIVE with it. We need to go back to the OLD normal; we need to OPEN TF UP and UNCANCEL everything! Let’s end this social distancing nonsense and put our masks away. Let the children go back to school and be around other children again, it’ll do them a world of good.

We as a society need to accept that we cannot control this virus. This virus is like a predator whose role is to thin the herd and trim the fat and eliminate the old, the weak, the sick, and the otherwise genetically inferior. We are constantly told to follow the science; so how about we follow this science: we must accept that some people are too old, weak or diseased to be kept alive and that some people are genetically inferior. In order for us to go back to normal we as society must be willing to sacrifice some lives to get our economy and society back to normal. We must stop being wimpy and being afraid of going out, traveling, and gathering in groups. If we are to get the economy back to normal and the population back to work, we must stop being such a pussified society. We must open our borders and get rid of these silly quarantine requirements. Healthy people should not be kept in quarantine with no freedom nor liberty. Only the sick must be quarantined.

My heart goes out to all those who have had their jobs lost and their lives unnecessarily disrupted because of this s***. We as a society need to listen to the science and ACCEPT that we cannot stop this virus and that we must sacrifice some lives. If anyone feels “unsafe” (teachers and the like) or “overwhelmed” (healthcare workers who knew what they signed up for) no one is stopping them from the door and quitting! I’m sure so many people would be clamoring for the job you “can’t do” because it’s “unsafe” !

We as a society need to stop messing with what we CANNOT conquer!


Yes, we need to learn to live with the virus rather than endlessly destroying society to hide from something that is not going away.

No, we cannot just go back to normal just yet. That we can't eliminate the virus doesn't mean that we give up and just go back to normal. There are measures that can be taken to reduce the spread of the virus and save lives such as, yes, wearing masks and practice a modicum of caution when around other people.
I'll do my own airline. With Blackjack. And hookers. In fact, forget the airline.
 
FGITD
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q3 2020

Tue Aug 11, 2020 2:47 am

There’s that famed American can do spirit! "We've tried nothing and we're all out of ideas!"

apparently the great American exceptionalism also applies to solving problems that most of the world already figured out.

Not to get too jingoistic, but any American who sees this problem and thinks "oh well, at least it should only kill the weak" and gives up is unworthy of their citizenship. Forget being an American, that's just simply not how humans as a species handle problems.


Also as a reminder...it's not the US keeping everyone else out. It's everyone else not letting the US in.
 
continental004
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q3 2020

Tue Aug 11, 2020 2:52 am

FGITD wrote:
There’s that famed American can do spirit! "We've tried nothing and we're all out of ideas!"

apparently the great American exceptionalism also applies to solving problems that most of the world already figured out.

Not to get too jingoistic, but any American who sees this problem and thinks "oh well, at least it should only kill the weak" and gives up is unworthy of their citizenship. Forget being an American, that's just simply not how humans as a species handle problems.


Also as a reminder...it's not the US keeping everyone else out. It's everyone else not letting the US in.


The world should open its borders and countries should get rid of their silly quarantine requirements.
 
User avatar
Aaron747
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q3 2020

Tue Aug 11, 2020 3:15 am

continental004 wrote:
FGITD wrote:
There’s that famed American can do spirit! "We've tried nothing and we're all out of ideas!"

apparently the great American exceptionalism also applies to solving problems that most of the world already figured out.

Not to get too jingoistic, but any American who sees this problem and thinks "oh well, at least it should only kill the weak" and gives up is unworthy of their citizenship. Forget being an American, that's just simply not how humans as a species handle problems.


Also as a reminder...it's not the US keeping everyone else out. It's everyone else not letting the US in.


The world should open its borders and countries should get rid of their silly quarantine requirements.


And your qualifications, other than raging misanthrope, are what...???
If you need someone to blame / throw a rock in the air / you'll hit someone guilty
 
ltbewr
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q3 2020

Tue Aug 11, 2020 4:00 am

continental004 wrote:
We as a society need to ACCEPT that COVID-19 is here to stay.

his virus is obviously not going anyway, the cat has long left the bag. So what we as a society must do is to learn to LIVE with it. We need to go back to the OLD normal; we need to OPEN TF UP and UNCANCEL everything! Let’s end this social distancing nonsense and put our masks away. Let the children go back to school and be around other children again, it’ll do them a world of good.

We as a society need to accept that we cannot control this virus. This virus is like a predator whose role is to thin the herd and trim the fat and eliminate the old, the weak, the sick, and the otherwise genetically inferior. We are constantly told to follow the science; so how about we follow this science: we must accept that some people are too old, weak or diseased to be kept alive and that some people are genetically inferior. In order for us to go back to normal we as society must be willing to sacrifice some lives to get our economy and society back to normal. We must stop being wimpy and being afraid of going out, traveling, and gathering in groups. If we are to get the economy back to normal and the population back to work, we must stop being such a pussified society. We must open our borders and get rid of these silly quarantine requirements. Healthy people should not be kept in quarantine with no freedom nor liberty. Only the sick must be quarantined.

My heart goes out to all those who have had their jobs lost and their lives unnecessarily disrupted because of this s***. We as a society need to listen to the science and ACCEPT that we cannot stop this virus and that we must sacrifice some lives. If anyone feels “unsafe” (teachers and the like) or “overwhelmed” (healthcare workers who knew what they signed up for) no one is stopping them from the door and quitting! I’m sure so many people would be clamoring for the job you “can’t do” because it’s “unsafe” !

We as a society need to stop messing with what we CANNOT conquer!


Is this inspired by Jonathan Swift's satire 'A Modest Proposal' https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/A_Modest_Proposal
Sorry, but I (65 years old) don't want be or have anyone sacrificed to keep others alive.
 
Toenga
Posts: 79
Joined: Thu Jan 23, 2020 2:55 am

Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q3 2020

Tue Aug 11, 2020 4:58 am

continental004 wrote:

The world should open its borders and countries should get rid of their silly quarantine requirements.


For what gain? The economic and social costs of maintaining our quarantine, whilst considerable, are considerably less, then having our internal economy hobbled by social distancing constraints, and the massive and on going healthcare costs of treating both covid and the effects of withheld healthcare to sufferers of other conditions. We are free here in New Zealand to live as normal. We are also free to leave our country, and free to return, subject to timing of available quarantine placements, and as of today, having to pay most of the cost of the fourteen day quarantine. But we do have that freedom.
The fact of entry restrictions into other countries, limited and expensive air services, the not insignificant risk of developing a life threatening illness when medical insurance is probably not available, and even getting appropriate medical care is far from assured, is nothing to do with our quarantine regime, but just a fact of current covid world.
Our local elimination of covid is placing us at a unique competitive advantage,
It has enhanced our reputation as a producer of high quality agricultural produce. We are benefitting right now, from some very talented skilled people moving here, not for the salaries on offer, but for our freedoms. Yes space is being found in our quarantine system for these people.
The economic and social benifits of being free of this disease at this time far outweigh the forgone income from overseas tourists. Just letting the disease take it's course fails to take account that peak infestations would overwhelm hospital, mortuary, and body disposal resources for a period.
I get a sense that some people are affronted that they are just not welcome everywhere, at this time, in spite of their dollars. Tough.
Currently we have choices on our way forward, that others have passed up on. We certainly will not willingly join the masses, for the sake of freedom of international movement, and the health of the cruise ship and airline industries.
 
olle
Posts: 2257
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q3 2020

Tue Aug 11, 2020 8:12 am

I have a feeling that in 3 years time the world will look and compare the 2 extreme responses Norway and Sweden.

As someone mentioned Sweden has trying to explain for its populations that in Q1 2020 we did not understand much. Sweden got covid even before anyone realized we had covid for example.

During Q3 I feel that the authorizes getting things right. We get the business more and more going, the number of dead and critical ill are very low, the number of non critical cases has been going down even if it currently going up a bit following the young people want to have a summerparty increase.

Norway did the opposite approach. It has not finished its first wave yet after being closed down to the rest of the world totally until June and is about to close external contacts again.

Norway government did the "trust me part". Now the model was so successful sold in to the Norwegian people that I believe that Norway will go into lock down again because it is complicated to change approach and sell something else.

I do believe that the Norwegians with later start of the virus then sweden avoided a huge number of dead, and if the right lessons are learned it might fix it when the wave continues.

Norway is betting 100% on that there will be a wide spread vaccine within the end of the year as USA, Australia and as a good example NZ did. But it was possible because initially the first cases came later.
 
art
Posts: 3442
Joined: Tue Feb 08, 2005 11:46 am

Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q3 2020

Tue Aug 11, 2020 8:37 am

continental004 wrote:
We as a society need to ACCEPT that COVID-19 is here to stay.

his virus is obviously not going anyway, the cat has long left the bag. So what we as a society must do is to learn to LIVE with it. We need to go back to the OLD normal; we need to OPEN TF UP and UNCANCEL everything! Let’s end this social distancing nonsense and put our masks away. Let the children go back to school and be around other children again, it’ll do them a world of good.


The 'OLD normal' died when it became apparent that without changes to what was 'normal' behaviour COVID-19 would rampage through the population, killing quite a few people who were healthy and hastening the death of far more people with existing health problems. One hears reports that tthe ongoing health of survivurs of infection may be also compromised (lung and other organ damage), possibly for the rest of their lives.

continental004 wrote:
We as a society need to accept that we cannot control this virus.


Not at all the case. Other societies have exerted a measure of control over the spread of COVID-19. How? By using precisely the strategies you abhor - compelling people to wear masks (UK study posted in The Lancet medical journal showed around 85% reduction in droplet transmission), keeping your distance from other people.

I would urge people to take basic steps to contain chances of infecting others or becoming infected themselves. The wearing of masks and hand washing are not precautions that are very limiting to people but are proven to be limiting to disease spread (refer to Florence Nightingale stats from Crimea ca 150 years ago, Lancet mask study). Agreed, social distancing is limiting.

If any or some of the dozens of vaccines in development prove effective and can be rushed into production, distribution and almost universal application, then yes, the 'OLD' normal could be brought back from the dead.. Again, just as containment now depends on changes in behaviour, the anti-vaxers will need to change their behaviour for universal innoculation to take place.

A last point: Brazil and the US have the largest number of positive COVID-19 test results. This is not through some cruel twist of bad luck. It is through their populations failing to take precautions to limit the spread of the virus. Until they do, there is no reason for high levels of infection to reduce, is there?
 
KFTG
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q3 2020

Tue Aug 11, 2020 10:23 am

Russia has approved the first COVID-19 vaccine, and apparently even Putin's daughter is going to get it https://www.reuters.com/article/us-heal ... SKCN25712U
 
KFTG
Posts: 858
Joined: Sun Apr 28, 2019 12:08 am

Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q3 2020

Tue Aug 11, 2020 10:28 am

art wrote:
Not at all the case. Other societies have exerted a measure of control over the spread of COVID-19. How? By using precisely the strategies you abhor - compelling people to wear masks (UK study posted in The Lancet medical journal showed around 85% reduction in droplet transmission), keeping your distance from other people.

You appear to be operating with your "own" set of facts/rationale.
There is no mask mandate in Sweden.
There was never a lockdown in Sweden.
Schools remained open in Sweden.
Deaths per capita are lower in Sweden than in the UK.
 
art
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Joined: Tue Feb 08, 2005 11:46 am

Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q3 2020

Tue Aug 11, 2020 10:29 am

KFTG wrote:
Russia has approved the first COVID-19 vaccine, and apparently even Putin's daughter is going to get it https://www.reuters.com/article/us-heal ... SKCN25712U


According to CNN? BBC? Putin's daughter was part of a test group and received a jab. He supposedly reported that daughter got a temperature after the jab.
 
KFTG
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Joined: Sun Apr 28, 2019 12:08 am

Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q3 2020

Tue Aug 11, 2020 10:33 am

art wrote:
KFTG wrote:
Russia has approved the first COVID-19 vaccine, and apparently even Putin's daughter is going to get it https://www.reuters.com/article/us-heal ... SKCN25712U


According to CNN? BBC? Putin's daughter was part of a test group and received a jab. He supposedly reported that daughter got a temperature after the jab.

You're right, she has already received it. As per AP.
 
art
Posts: 3442
Joined: Tue Feb 08, 2005 11:46 am

Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q3 2020

Tue Aug 11, 2020 10:58 am

KFTG wrote:
art wrote:
Not at all the case. Other societies have exerted a measure of control over the spread of COVID-19. How? By using precisely the strategies you abhor - compelling people to wear masks (UK study posted in The Lancet medical journal showed around 85% reduction in droplet transmission), keeping your distance from other people.

You appear to be operating with your "own" set of facts/rationale.
There is no mask mandate in Sweden.
There was never a lockdown in Sweden.
Schools remained open in Sweden.
Deaths per capita are lower in Sweden than in the UK.


My own set of facts?

Is it established that masks reduce droplet transmission? Yes or no? Hint: look at pictures taken within operating theatres.

Re: UK, yes, infection spread was allowed to increase at high levels in March before there was a panicked lockdown. Many old people were discharged from hospital to care homes with symptoms of the virus. Infection control was extremely poor. Even now most people who are potentially infected and instructed to quarantine are not monitored. Some simply ignore the instruction and go out or go to work as usual. Quarantine is not taken seriously here.

Not a single person was fined by police in England and Wales for breaching quarantine rules in the first two weeks after they were introduced, data shows.

Under the rules, people arriving in the UK must self-isolate for 14 days or face a fine of between £100 and £1,000.


https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-53355552
 
M564038
Posts: 373
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q3 2020

Tue Aug 11, 2020 11:27 am

I believe you have been drinking Mr. Tegnells cool-aid. Swedish numbers are much lower than they have been, but still higher than Norwegian numbers which are at it’s highest since the 1st wave.
So now we are working on flattening wave 2, with more knowledge and more to the point than wave 1.
Our death toll is extremely low compared to sweden, and it will still be extremely low even though freshly imported cases combined with university and school start-up is a challenge.

Norway was never in complete shut-down, btw. Schools and bars closed for a month, people were asked to do home-office when possible, and people travelling from abroad where quarantined for 10 days.
The school closing were probably slightly overdone, but it was early days.

You could still travel domestically, you could still eat at restaurants or visit any shop, and we were very successfull in beating the first wave very quickly by adhering to basic distancing.

At the same time in sweden people were partying like never before and making out with every stranger they met on the subway hoping for flock immunity while people died in thousands.

Good work.


olle wrote:
I have a feeling that in 3 years time the world will look and compare the 2 extreme responses Norway and Sweden.

As someone mentioned Sweden has trying to explain for its populations that in Q1 2020 we did not understand much. Sweden got covid even before anyone realized we had covid for example.

During Q3 I feel that the authorizes getting things right. We get the business more and more going, the number of dead and critical ill are very low, the number of non critical cases has been going down even if it currently going up a bit following the young people want to have a summerparty increase.

Norway did the opposite approach. It has not finished its first wave yet after being closed down to the rest of the world totally until June and is about to close external contacts again.

Norway government did the "trust me part". Now the model was so successful sold in to the Norwegian people that I believe that Norway will go into lock down again because it is complicated to change approach and sell something else.

I do believe that the Norwegians with later start of the virus then sweden avoided a huge number of dead, and if the right lessons are learned it might fix it when the wave continues.

Norway is betting 100% on that there will be a wide spread vaccine within the end of the year as USA, Australia and as a good example NZ did. But it was possible because initially the first cases came later.
 
PPVRA
Posts: 8507
Joined: Fri Nov 12, 2004 7:48 am

Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q3 2020

Tue Aug 11, 2020 12:31 pm

A couple of weeks ago, a friend of mine was extremely worried as one of her friends, who is severely obese, got COVID. AND she’s pregnant. This person spread the disease to her parents and sister, her other child and husband. The sister and the father are also severely obese, and the father has diabetes. The parents are at least in their 60s. Mother is overweight but not severely.

They all survived. None were even hospitalized.

Lucky? Perhaps, because even I was worried for my friend. It looked like a worst case scenario all around, but thankfully it fizzled out.
"If goods do not cross borders, soldiers will" - Frederic Bastiat
 
olle
Posts: 2257
Joined: Tue Feb 06, 2007 3:38 am

Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q3 2020

Tue Aug 11, 2020 1:08 pm

M564038 wrote:
I believe you have been drinking Mr. Tegnells cool-aid. Swedish numbers are much lower than they have been, but still higher than Norwegian numbers which are at it’s highest since the 1st wave.
So now we are working on flattening wave 2, with more knowledge and more to the point than wave 1.
Our death toll is extremely low compared to sweden, and it will still be extremely low even though freshly imported cases combined with university and school start-up is a challenge.

Norway was never in complete shut-down, btw. Schools and bars closed for a month, people were asked to do home-office when possible, and people travelling from abroad where quarantined for 10 days.
The school closing were probably slightly overdone, but it was early days.

You could still travel domestically, you could still eat at restaurants or visit any shop, and we were very successfull in beating the first wave very quickly by adhering to basic distancing.

At the same time in sweden people were partying like never before and making out with every stranger they met on the subway hoping for flock immunity while people died in thousands.

Good work.


olle wrote:
I have a feeling that in 3 years time the world will look and compare the 2 extreme responses Norway and Sweden.

As someone mentioned Sweden has trying to explain for its populations that in Q1 2020 we did not understand much. Sweden got covid even before anyone realized we had covid for example.

During Q3 I feel that the authorizes getting things right. We get the business more and more going, the number of dead and critical ill are very low, the number of non critical cases has been going down even if it currently going up a bit following the young people want to have a summerparty increase.

Norway did the opposite approach. It has not finished its first wave yet after being closed down to the rest of the world totally until June and is about to close external contacts again.

Norway government did the "trust me part". Now the model was so successful sold in to the Norwegian people that I believe that Norway will go into lock down again because it is complicated to change approach and sell something else.

I do believe that the Norwegians with later start of the virus then sweden avoided a huge number of dead, and if the right lessons are learned it might fix it when the wave continues.

Norway is betting 100% on that there will be a wide spread vaccine within the end of the year as USA, Australia and as a good example NZ did. But it was possible because initially the first cases came later.



First I would like to say that currently the numbers between Sweden denmark and norway start to get similar.

Sweden has been going up a bit the last few days from 18 to 27 cases per 100000, Denmark is today a bit over 20, Norway increases fast and is on 10. Oslo would today be a red zone if it was in Denmark or Sweden from Norway point of view., and whole Norway is probably read from a Finnish point of view any day.

Number of death and in intensive care is very low in all countries and considering that Sweden has a population of Denmark and Norway combined the picture today looks very similar.

The difference is that Sweden stand still and Norway Denmark increasing very fats from extremly low numbers;

What the difference is what Sweden experienced is that Covid started in Sweden in december 2019 compared to February 2020, a critical 3 month. In December and January noone has covid on the map in Europe.

now it will be interesting during the next 8 weeks. The 3 countries are on similar levels, Sweden will open schools totally in 10 days. Swedish schoolkids had better results spring 2020 then the year before. I consider that Sweden seems pretty happy with the situation.

How will Norway and denmark react? Some cities is already closing, Norway says that travels to Oslo and of course Denmark Sweden.

How long will it take until Finland with the most restrive approach close Norway? A week?

I think it is most important to keep critical ill and death down, and I believe that for the rest we will need to consider that is is for staying. Will Scandinavia accept long term GDP fall of 10-20%?

https://ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?ar ... lues=cases
 
M564038
Posts: 373
Joined: Sun Jan 03, 2016 11:16 am

Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q3 2020

Tue Aug 11, 2020 1:58 pm

In the same way Sweden believes it might have found infections going back to very early this year, so has Norway. The initial pattern was extremely similar.
Norway now sees a rising curve after opening borders to countries with 10 times the spread, and internally living pretty much as sweden. So now we are throttling back again. This is a work in progress, but there has always been more restrictions than sweden, and it shows in 1/10 death per capita.


olle wrote:
M564038 wrote:
I believe you have been drinking Mr. Tegnells cool-aid. Swedish numbers are much lower than they have been, but still higher than Norwegian numbers which are at it’s highest since the 1st wave.
So now we are working on flattening wave 2, with more knowledge and more to the point than wave 1.
Our death toll is extremely low compared to sweden, and it will still be extremely low even though freshly imported cases combined with university and school start-up is a challenge.

Norway was never in complete shut-down, btw. Schools and bars closed for a month, people were asked to do home-office when possible, and people travelling from abroad where quarantined for 10 days.
The school closing were probably slightly overdone, but it was early days.

You could still travel domestically, you could still eat at restaurants or visit any shop, and we were very successfull in beating the first wave very quickly by adhering to basic distancing.

At the same time in sweden people were partying like never before and making out with every stranger they met on the subway hoping for flock immunity while people died in thousands.

Good work.


olle wrote:
I have a feeling that in 3 years time the world will look and compare the 2 extreme responses Norway and Sweden.

As someone mentioned Sweden has trying to explain for its populations that in Q1 2020 we did not understand much. Sweden got covid even before anyone realized we had covid for example.

During Q3 I feel that the authorizes getting things right. We get the business more and more going, the number of dead and critical ill are very low, the number of non critical cases has been going down even if it currently going up a bit following the young people want to have a summerparty increase.

Norway did the opposite approach. It has not finished its first wave yet after being closed down to the rest of the world totally until June and is about to close external contacts again.

Norway government did the "trust me part". Now the model was so successful sold in to the Norwegian people that I believe that Norway will go into lock down again because it is complicated to change approach and sell something else.

I do believe that the Norwegians with later start of the virus then sweden avoided a huge number of dead, and if the right lessons are learned it might fix it when the wave continues.

Norway is betting 100% on that there will be a wide spread vaccine within the end of the year as USA, Australia and as a good example NZ did. But it was possible because initially the first cases came later.



First I would like to say that currently the numbers between Sweden denmark and norway start to get similar.

Sweden has been going up a bit the last few days from 18 to 27 cases per 100000, Denmark is today a bit over 20, Norway increases fast and is on 10. Oslo would today be a red zone if it was in Denmark or Sweden from Norway point of view., and whole Norway is probably read from a Finnish point of view any day.

Number of death and in intensive care is very low in all countries and considering that Sweden has a population of Denmark and Norway combined the picture today looks very similar.

The difference is that Sweden stand still and Norway Denmark increasing very fats from extremly low numbers;

What the difference is what Sweden experienced is that Covid started in Sweden in december 2019 compared to February 2020, a critical 3 month. In December and January noone has covid on the map in Europe.

now it will be interesting during the next 8 weeks. The 3 countries are on similar levels, Sweden will open schools totally in 10 days. Swedish schoolkids had better results spring 2020 then the year before. I consider that Sweden seems pretty happy with the situation.

How will Norway and denmark react? Some cities is already closing, Norway says that travels to Oslo and of course Denmark Sweden.

How long will it take until Finland with the most restrive approach close Norway? A week?

I think it is most important to keep critical ill and death down, and I believe that for the rest we will need to consider that is is for staying. Will Scandinavia accept long term GDP fall of 10-20%?

https://ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?ar ... lues=cases

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