Moderators: richierich, ua900, PanAm_DC10, hOMSaR

 
flyguy89
Posts: 3442
Joined: Tue Feb 24, 2009 6:43 pm

Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q3 2020

Tue Aug 11, 2020 4:23 pm

It's a little early for any country to be declaring victory against the virus (except maybe New Zealand) at this point since we just do not know the ultimate direction the pandemic will take and how long COVID will remain a true threat. With cases surging again in many European countries, if there's a return to strict lock down measures (assuming there would even be an appetite/tolerance of it among the population) I'm not sure I'd call that a success.
 
MaverickM11
Posts: 18742
Joined: Thu Apr 06, 2000 1:59 pm

Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q3 2020

Tue Aug 11, 2020 4:38 pm

Off to a great start:

Update: More than 800 Cherokee County students in quarantine as precaution amid rising COVID cases
https://www.11alive.com/article/news/he ... f25fdc8065

"CHEROKEE COUNTY, Ga. — School has been in session for a week in Cherokee County and positive cases continue to force other students to go into quarantine, the district said.

Based on positive test results among staffers, teachers and students, the district conducts contact tracing and determines who must go into quarantine for two weeks.

More than 800 students have been identified to quarantine. In total, including staff, faculty and students, there are 868 in quarantine. "
 
PPVRA
Posts: 8613
Joined: Fri Nov 12, 2004 7:48 am

Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q3 2020

Tue Aug 11, 2020 5:04 pm

Is anybody NOT reopening schools? (serious question I haven’t heard)
 
PPVRA
Posts: 8613
Joined: Fri Nov 12, 2004 7:48 am

Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q3 2020

Tue Aug 11, 2020 5:50 pm

PPVRA wrote:
Is anybody NOT reopening schools? (serious question I haven’t heard)


1. Looks like California counties were planning on reopening, but the governor but a stop to many of them.

2. Also Montgomery County, Maryland. The only county I could find that chose not to reopen/wasn’t forced to close like California. Although private schools will be allowed to return.
 
VSMUT
Posts: 5497
Joined: Mon Aug 08, 2016 11:40 am

Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q3 2020

Tue Aug 11, 2020 7:02 pm

M564038 wrote:
I believe you have been drinking Mr. Tegnells cool-aid. Swedish numbers are much lower than they have been, but still higher than Norwegian numbers which are at it’s highest since the 1st wave.


Ditto, I don't recognize his comparisons between Denmark and Sweden either. Clearly he's had too much of the Tegnell cool-aid.

I am not going to spend too much time digging out sources, because they will inevitably be stuck behind paywalls, but Danish media have been comparing the Danish and Swedish economies over the crisis, and the results are clear. The Danish economy and businesses not only got through the crisis better, but are also recovering faster, despite the harder shutdown:
https://finans.dk/okonomi/ECE12333997/t ... onakrisen/

- The biggest Danish banks expect a drop in GDP somewhere between 3% and 6%, compared to 8,4% in Sweden.
- Industrial output fell by 5% in Denmark compared to 15% in Sweden.

From one of the newspapers I receive, consumption in almost all retail sectors went through the crisis at higher levels than in Sweden, is growing faster than in Sweden and in many cases has already reached last years numbers. And all of that with only 10% of the dead compared to Sweden.


olle wrote:
The problem is that while Scania can survive 6 month the family owned restaurant do not. and a lot of effort has been made in Sweden in contrast to Finland, Denmark and Norway to make them thru this crisis. If we are successful, we will see in 24 month.


Denmark gave various subsidy packages and the government encouraged take-away options to keep them afloat. It was popular. You are talking 24 months, we are already back to normal.


olle wrote:
Now we see that the countries like denmark and norway that we have been compared with as a bad example having fast increasing numbers again. Let us see in 2 -3 month if they can keep the number of dead down.


No surprise there. Danes and Norwegians were allowed to travel abroad because we tackled the issue early on. The Tegnell-cultists were forced to stay home for most of the summer break because nobody trusted you.

But you know what the worst part is? There still isn't any evidence that herd-immunity works against this virus, and now there is mounting evidence that it causes long lasting damage to the body.
 
PPVRA
Posts: 8613
Joined: Fri Nov 12, 2004 7:48 am

Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q3 2020

Tue Aug 11, 2020 7:19 pm

VSMUT wrote:
But you know what the worst part is? There still isn't any evidence that herd-immunity works against this virus, and now there is mounting evidence that it causes long lasting damage to the body.


And yet, this virus won’t go away. Not even in New Zealand.
 
AirWorthy99
Posts: 1423
Joined: Thu Jan 09, 2020 7:57 pm

Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q3 2020

Tue Aug 11, 2020 7:25 pm

flyguy89 wrote:
It's a little early for any country to be declaring victory against the virus (except maybe New Zealand) at this point since we just do not know the ultimate direction the pandemic will take and how long COVID will remain a true threat. With cases surging again in many European countries, if there's a return to strict lock down measures (assuming there would even be an appetite/tolerance of it among the population) I'm not sure I'd call that a success.


New Zealand nor any country has won this battle yet. The only way a country will win is if all their people get immune to this virus, either by herd immunity or a very effective vaccine.

Right now it may seem that despite all the problems Sweden has managed to reach certain herd immunity (based on current case trend and deaths). New Zealand is by far the country extremely far from getting herd immunity. So their bet is stay isolated from the rest of the world for ever or hope the vaccine is extremely effective in order to be an open country and not North Korea type.

Lets see what happens in China/Italy/New York this fall. We might now where we are headed after that.
 
94717
Posts: 2789
Joined: Tue Feb 06, 2007 3:38 am

Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q3 2020

Tue Aug 11, 2020 7:32 pm

Actually danish gdp decreased both in q1 and q2 while sweden grew still in q1. Then the dip q2 was bigger in sweden then in denmark during q2.

Let us see how q3 and q4 develops.
 
StarAC17
Posts: 4204
Joined: Thu Aug 07, 2003 11:54 am

Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q3 2020

Tue Aug 11, 2020 7:51 pm

continental004 wrote:
We as a society need to ACCEPT that COVID-19 is here to stay.

his virus is obviously not going anyway, the cat has long left the bag. So what we as a society must do is to learn to LIVE with it. We need to go back to the OLD normal; we need to OPEN TF UP and UNCANCEL everything! Let’s end this social distancing nonsense and put our masks away. Let the children go back to school and be around other children again, it’ll do them a world of good.

We as a society need to accept that we cannot control this virus. This virus is like a predator whose role is to thin the herd and trim the fat and eliminate the old, the weak, the sick, and the otherwise genetically inferior. We are constantly told to follow the science; so how about we follow this science: we must accept that some people are too old, weak or diseased to be kept alive and that some people are genetically inferior. In order for us to go back to normal we as society must be willing to sacrifice some lives to get our economy and society back to normal. We must stop being wimpy and being afraid of going out, traveling, and gathering in groups. If we are to get the economy back to normal and the population back to work, we must stop being such a pussified society. We must open our borders and get rid of these silly quarantine requirements. Healthy people should not be kept in quarantine with no freedom nor liberty. Only the sick must be quarantined.

My heart goes out to all those who have had their jobs lost and their lives unnecessarily disrupted because of this s***. We as a society need to listen to the science and ACCEPT that we cannot stop this virus and that we must sacrifice some lives. If anyone feels “unsafe” (teachers and the like) or “overwhelmed” (healthcare workers who knew what they signed up for) no one is stopping them from the door and quitting! I’m sure so many people would be clamoring for the job you “can’t do” because it’s “unsafe” !

We as a society need to stop messing with what we CANNOT conquer!


I agree with you in theory and yes Darwin has a part to play here, I also have no fear of or problem with death. Its not a reason to be an idiot but life needs to be lived and not in fear. I grew up in a household that my parents often had small fears that absolutely affected how much risk I took as a kid and at 36 I am now only finally catching up with what I consider normal. One was the fear of of getting sick which thankfully I really don't have anymore
.
There is a Russian Roulette factor here is that you can in fact be healthy and either die or recover with complications. There are some very reasonable things that can be put into effect as Francoflier has said, such as masks and reasonable distancing. Also people need to calm down if there is a cluster, lets deal with the cluster and leave the rest of us to be.

The public health experts and infectious disease specialists are putting everything on a vaccine and hoping one comes late this year or early next year. This is why some countries are waiting it out, however that is a gamble and in the face of stable numbers people will just ignore these rules over time. Example being in Canada masks may be mandatory for 3 to 5 years (hoping this is a worst case scenario) even with a vaccine. While I don't think most governments have pushed the bounds of a reasonable restrictions of freedom, I say that being very suspicious. There have rumors of mandatory vaccines which has never been done in history and having this measures for much longer than required. If that is the case then expect a legion of libertarian governments to be elected in the next few years.


olle wrote:
I have a feeling that in 3 years time the world will look and compare the 2 extreme responses Norway and Sweden.

As someone mentioned Sweden has trying to explain for its populations that in Q1 2020 we did not understand much. Sweden got covid even before anyone realized we had covid for example.

During Q3 I feel that the authorizes getting things right. We get the business more and more going, the number of dead and critical ill are very low, the number of non critical cases has been going down even if it currently going up a bit following the young people want to have a summerparty increase.

Norway did the opposite approach. It has not finished its first wave yet after being closed down to the rest of the world totally until June and is about to close external contacts again.

Norway government did the "trust me part". Now the model was so successful sold in to the Norwegian people that I believe that Norway will go into lock down again because it is complicated to change approach and sell something else.

I do believe that the Norwegians with later start of the virus then sweden avoided a huge number of dead, and if the right lessons are learned it might fix it when the wave continues.

Norway is betting 100% on that there will be a wide spread vaccine within the end of the year as USA, Australia and as a good example NZ did. But it was possible because initially the first cases came later.


Exactly and this is a gamble because provided the vaccine takes another year then Sweden is closer to herd immunity. I don't think Sweden is going to come out of this looking bad provided their cases stay stable. The problem with the lock-downs is that the second the clamps are released the wave starts and you have just delayed the deaths and not prevented them. A reasonable controlled approach can allow the virus to spread with those who need to be hospitalized can be treated and this is what Sweden did.

Also you need infected people to actually be able to learn how to treat this thing effectively and look at how the immune system actually deals with it. Figuring out how Covid kills people and how we fight it off is the first step in managing it. We need cases to figure this out.

This attitude here is similar to after the Comet crashed well lets not fly passenger jets until we have a plane that is 100% safe. The reality is that we learn things through failures and sometimes people die. There are countless examples of this in history.

PPVRA wrote:
A couple of weeks ago, a friend of mine was extremely worried as one of her friends, who is severely obese, got COVID. AND she’s pregnant. This person spread the disease to her parents and sister, her other child and husband. The sister and the father are also severely obese, and the father has diabetes. The parents are at least in their 60s. Mother is overweight but not severely.

They all survived. None were even hospitalized.

Lucky? Perhaps, because even I was worried for my friend. It looked like a worst case scenario all around, but thankfully it fizzled out.


This is the Russian Roulette factor.
 
Toenga
Posts: 315
Joined: Thu Jan 23, 2020 2:55 am

Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q3 2020

Tue Aug 11, 2020 8:11 pm

Toenga wrote:
Thanks Olle for the detailed replies explaining the situation in Sweden. Given the ongoing uncertainties of how both the Virus can be contained, and the worldwide economic, and social changes the pandemic is causing, the approach certainly seems to have potential long merit. To me it shows that rational analysis, even with the extremely limited information available at the early stages of the pandemic, a plan, and clear communication, of that plan, to it's people, works massively better then the "trust us we know what we are doing" strategy of so many governments, when patently they they neither had any idea what to do, and the coherence to do what was required.
I think NZ used the same process as Sweden, but because it's circumstances are different, the plan was radically different. Australia used a similar but softer version of the plan adopted in New Zealand, but then muddied the communications and implementation , because the plan itself was muddy, "health or the economy"? Now Australia is suffering more then NZ on both health and economic measures.
But to be fair to Australia, they are still in a vastly better place then most of the rest of the world.
They just need to settle on their goal for all of Australia and then get all of their states back to the same position. But first they must unambiguously settle on that position. Suppression or Elimination? Politicians need to grasp they are distinctly different in both strategies outcomes, and maintenance.
Because of the practical impossibility of continually shielding our indigenous communities and the potential dire consequences of covid to these peoples, the Swedish approach is a non starter in this part of the world.


Update.
Last night at 2012hrs all, well most, mobile phones jumped into life with their distinctive emergency call shriek, followed by a message that 4 people from one family had tested covid positive in Auckland, and consequently Auckland was going back into level 3 lockdown, and the rest of the country into level 2 lockdown at 1200hrs today initially for 3 days. The PM having been informed of the outbreak at 1600hrs and initiated the outbreak plan.
Bugger. So it will be a new experience for us with an expectation of mask wearing when out and about.
Level 2 schools and all shops, restaurants are open but with defined social distancing measures in place.
Level 3 schools closed to all but children of essential workers. Workers to work from home if possible. Restaurants takeaway only.
Hopefully these much stronger measures then being employed in Australia, will quickly contain this outbreak and our lives can quickly return to the new normal, much like the old normal minus incoming and outgoing tourism.
 
lowwkjax
Posts: 55
Joined: Sun Sep 02, 2018 10:52 am

Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q3 2020

Tue Aug 11, 2020 9:05 pm

I’m kinda surprised not to see a discussion about Russia’s approval of what they call the “world’s first Corona vaccine”.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-53735718

It’s not known whether they have completed several stages of testing or not and the results of their tests are unknown as well as they have not published much information internationally, only that their vaccine is based on a former development of a MERS-vaccine (also a Coronavirus-type).

Most common comments in the western world is - surprise - critics and saying how it’s impossible to have a safe and effective vaccine after so little time.

I want to add my personal opinion - Russia has been known as an effective and reliable drug and vaccine developer for years over years now and in no way would they risk bringing out a vaccine that is neither safe nor effective. I just think that they don’t take ethnicity as seriously as most western countries do as someone who has family in Russia told me that they vaccinated volunteers within the military and injected them the Coronavirus a month after the vaccine to see if they would get sick or what the side effects would be. That way they didn’t have to wait months over months to see if anyone gets sick, that way they were able to quickly determine whether the vaccine actually works and to be honest, long term side effects is something that a year of testing wouldn’t show either.

I for myself have a feeling that the Russians know exactly what they’re doing here, they would never risk their standing, especially not at this time as they’re not “in a hurry” with others being months behind them, they just have a different approach to some things...
 
unscheduled
Posts: 40
Joined: Sun Jul 26, 2020 11:16 pm

Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q3 2020

Tue Aug 11, 2020 10:06 pm

"Russians would never risk their standing"?

What standing? Pariah nation?
Russian propaganda is about as trustworthy as their fanboy, Donald Trump.
 
94717
Posts: 2789
Joined: Tue Feb 06, 2007 3:38 am

Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q3 2020

Tue Aug 11, 2020 10:31 pm

M564038 wrote:
In the same way Sweden believes it might have found infections going back to very early this year, so has Norway. The initial pattern was extremely similar.
Norway now sees a rising curve after opening borders to countries with 10 times the spread, and internally living pretty much as sweden. So now we are throttling back again. This is a work in progress, but there has always been more restrictions than sweden, and it shows in 1/10 death per capita.


olle wrote:
M564038 wrote:
I believe you have been drinking Mr. Tegnells cool-aid. Swedish numbers are much lower than they have been, but still higher than Norwegian numbers which are at it’s highest since the 1st wave.
So now we are working on flattening wave 2, with more knowledge and more to the point than wave 1.
Our death toll is extremely low compared to sweden, and it will still be extremely low even though freshly imported cases combined with university and school start-up is a challenge.

Norway was never in complete shut-down, btw. Schools and bars closed for a month, people were asked to do home-office when possible, and people travelling from abroad where quarantined for 10 days.
The school closing were probably slightly overdone, but it was early days.

You could still travel domestically, you could still eat at restaurants or visit any shop, and we were very successfull in beating the first wave very quickly by adhering to basic distancing.

At the same time in sweden people were partying like never before and making out with every stranger they met on the subway hoping for flock immunity while people died in thousands.

Good work.





First I would like to say that currently the numbers between Sweden denmark and norway start to get similar.

Sweden has been going up a bit the last few days from 18 to 27 cases per 100000, Denmark is today a bit over 20, Norway increases fast and is on 10. Oslo would today be a red zone if it was in Denmark or Sweden from Norway point of view., and whole Norway is probably read from a Finnish point of view any day.

Number of death and in intensive care is very low in all countries and considering that Sweden has a population of Denmark and Norway combined the picture today looks very similar.

The difference is that Sweden stand still and Norway Denmark increasing very fats from extremly low numbers;

What the difference is what Sweden experienced is that Covid started in Sweden in december 2019 compared to February 2020, a critical 3 month. In December and January noone has covid on the map in Europe.

now it will be interesting during the next 8 weeks. The 3 countries are on similar levels, Sweden will open schools totally in 10 days. Swedish schoolkids had better results spring 2020 then the year before. I consider that Sweden seems pretty happy with the situation.

How will Norway and denmark react? Some cities is already closing, Norway says that travels to Oslo and of course Denmark Sweden.

How long will it take until Finland with the most restrive approach close Norway? A week?

I think it is most important to keep critical ill and death down, and I believe that for the rest we will need to consider that is is for staying. Will Scandinavia accept long term GDP fall of 10-20%?

https://ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?ar ... lues=cases


I in general agree. Norway and partly Denmark did a better job protecting its older during April and may. Much better job. I can only hope that Sweden has learned something when the numbers now increasing in whole Europe and we are in for a hard fall. What I trying to say is that at least some explanation seems to be that the covid hit Sweden earlier then the neighbors in combination with being better prepared when it happened. This might be true or false. But now it seems that Sweden has learned its lesson and the people in intensive care are very low. I think the blame for this was created in the economical crisis in 1990s and should have been addressed years ago. Hopefully it is now.

Comparing economical data is very tricky. If we look at IMF we see the following pattern;

Source IMF

https://www.imf.org/external/datamapper ... OR/SWE/FIN

2020

Denmark -6.5 Norway - 6.3 Sweden -6.8 Finland -6 Germany -7

Forcast 2021

Denmark 6 Norway 2.9 Sweden 5.2 Finland 3.1 Germany 5.2

So combined we can see that Denmark is the winner ;-) or less looser

Denmark -0.5% Norway -3.4% Sweden -1.7% Finland -2.9% Germany -1.8

what we can assume is that Sweden and Denmark probably has recovered the fall of GDP in 2022 if the increase in GDP is 1.5% per year.

Both Finland and Norway will probably take until 2024 - 2026 to recover the loss.

For me Germany is the best example with having a very smart approach, closing more selective and probably recover full in 2022 / 2023.

Regarding Mr Tegnell and what he is smoking and that everyone seems to hate in this forum, I must say that compared to listen to the governments in Spain, Denmark where the governments seems to have taken the decisions on quit unprofessional basis Mr Tegnell at least told the Swedish people that this will take probably 36 month and we do not really know what we are doing.

Ms Merkel with her both Political and expert background in my eyes was the perfect leader thru this crisis. She was very open like Mr Tegnell to the people what was gong to happen and what was known. She decentralized decisions to regions. she did not try to take a political approach to the solutions but understood how to communicate to her people.

Spain on the other hand created a expert team that now Spain recognized never existed all decisions was pure political. Denmark government went out saying that the lock down was recommended from experts and now it seems that they did not give this recommendations to close schools and society and the decision was a pure political one.

This kind of political decision would had been impossible in Sweden and even worse if the Swedish prime minister lied in this ways described he would had lost his job.

I think that the best test for what happened in the spring will come the next few weeks;

Denmark seems to copy Germany and close things when its needed but not a general one but there seems like Denmark getting worse hit this time . In some way Sweden do exactly the same but calls it recommendations and perhaps go back to the spring when Swedes could not move around too long distances, but the outbreak perhaps do not becomes so big this time the experts believes.

Finland might be the one that might win and perhaps avoid covid until next year when we might expect a vaccine.

Norway seems to get a outbreak. Norway have probably 5-10 days to avoid a big outbreak. But right now the Norwegian people do not seems to help very much and have gone partying ;-)

Call this smoking but it is my guess.
 
T4thH
Posts: 1328
Joined: Thu Jun 06, 2019 11:17 pm

Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q3 2020

Wed Aug 12, 2020 12:02 am

lowwkjax wrote:
I’m kinda surprised not to see a discussion about Russia’s approval of what they call the “world’s first Corona vaccine”.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-53735718

It’s not known whether they have completed several stages of testing or not and the results of their tests are unknown as well as they have not published much information internationally, only that their vaccine is based on a former development of a MERS-vaccine (also a Coronavirus-type).

Most common comments in the western world is - surprise - critics and saying how it’s impossible to have a safe and effective vaccine after so little time.

I want to add my personal opinion - Russia has been known as an effective and reliable drug and vaccine developer for years over years now and in no way would they risk bringing out a vaccine that is neither safe nor effective. I just think that they don’t take ethnicity as seriously as most western countries do as someone who has family in Russia told me that they vaccinated volunteers within the military and injected them the Coronavirus a month after the vaccine to see if they would get sick or what the side effects would be. That way they didn’t have to wait months over months to see if anyone gets sick, that way they were able to quickly determine whether the vaccine actually works and to be honest, long term side effects is something that a year of testing wouldn’t show either.

I for myself have a feeling that the Russians know exactly what they’re doing here, they would never risk their standing, especially not at this time as they’re not “in a hurry” with others being months behind them, they just have a different approach to some things...

You are aware, clinical tests are performed in 3 phases, phase I, II and III. After phase III completion (with thousands of test persons), there will be the approval by regulatory authorities.

According to my knowledge, phase I was scheduled to last till Sep. or Oct-2020 with testing of in total 38 test persons (for this phase one trial)? So have even all of these 38 test persons already received the vaccination? Have they even tested, if the test patients have produced antibodies? Have they tested, if these antibodies bind to the virus and more important, do they bind to the receptor part of the proteins of the virus? It is already known, that antibodies, binding not to the receptor part of the proteins of the virus have no effect. There are no publications till now regarding the trial, not even in peer review.

This is a complete untested "political vaccination", it is not approved by any authority in Russia, Putin has decided, that it is working and to be used by decree.

So regarding to your last part:
I for myself have a feeling that the Russians know exactly what they’re doing here, they would never risk their standing, especially not at this time as they’re not “in a hurry” with others being months behind them, they just have a different approach to some things...

Sorry, but this is rubbish. The Russians do not know anything, it is to early, it is not tested. But the great "Führer" can do it by decree. And of course, the great "Führer" is in hurry, he has to show the greatness of his big "country" to the own people...(and all of the Putin fan boys globally) as the approval rating for him is now on the way to the bottom. The Russians in Putinista...sorry, Russia, are now not any more so happy with him.
 
flyguy89
Posts: 3442
Joined: Tue Feb 24, 2009 6:43 pm

Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q3 2020

Wed Aug 12, 2020 12:56 am

lowwkjax wrote:
I’m kinda surprised not to see a discussion about Russia’s approval of what they call the “world’s first Corona vaccine”.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-53735718

No one is discussing it because no one is buying it. There's no way scientifically they could know at this point that it works, otherwise they would have released the data. The fact that they nicknamed it "Sputnik" shows that all they care about is being able to say they were the first with any type of vaccine, not actually advancing anything that would end the pandemic.
 
art
Posts: 4224
Joined: Tue Feb 08, 2005 11:46 am

Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q3 2020

Wed Aug 12, 2020 1:02 am

Questions for those who have a view...

What performance characteristics are required for a vaccine to be seen as effective?

Would a vaccine that stops 50% of people becoming infected, reduces the effects of infection in 30%, does not have any effect in 20% be seen as effective?

Is there a threshold vaccines need to cross to be deemed sufficiently effective to be useful?
 
flyguy89
Posts: 3442
Joined: Tue Feb 24, 2009 6:43 pm

Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q3 2020

Wed Aug 12, 2020 1:29 am

art wrote:
Questions for those who have a view...

What performance characteristics are required for a vaccine to be seen as effective?

Would a vaccine that stops 50% of people becoming infected, reduces the effects of infection in 30%, does not have any effect in 20% be seen as effective?

Is there a threshold vaccines need to cross to be deemed sufficiently effective to be useful?

The FDA will only authorize a vaccine if it's at least 50% effective. Scientists view 50-60% effectiveness as probably acceptable enough to end the pandemic. Fauci thinks 90+% effectiveness is unlikely for any vaccine, but that 50-60% effectiveness should be enough.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/08/07/coronav ... great.html
 
DLFREEBIRD
Posts: 1613
Joined: Thu Mar 05, 2015 6:07 pm

Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q3 2020

Wed Aug 12, 2020 6:36 am

Russia announced it will start mass inoculations in October but only it's citizens with a vaccine that hasn’t yet finished clinical trials. Then the U.K. says that Oxford Vaccine, will only go to U.K. residents. So, i think the U.S. is on it's own. Not sure why, it's taking so long. If Russia and U.K. are on the cusps of getting a vaccine, are we going to be last on this as well?
 
flyguy89
Posts: 3442
Joined: Tue Feb 24, 2009 6:43 pm

Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q3 2020

Wed Aug 12, 2020 7:00 am

DLFREEBIRD wrote:
Russia announced it will start mass inoculations in October but only it's citizens with a vaccine that hasn’t yet finished clinical trials. Then the U.K. says that Oxford Vaccine, will only go to U.K. residents. So, i think the U.S. is on it's own. Not sure why, it's taking so long. If Russia and U.K. are on the cusps of getting a vaccine, are we going to be last on this as well?

:confused:
The US is funding and starting production on a number of candidates including the Oxford vaccine. The UK is slated to begin receiving their doses in September, and the US in October. Neither will, of course, deploy it until probably after the first of the year depending on the results of the trials.
 
art
Posts: 4224
Joined: Tue Feb 08, 2005 11:46 am

Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q3 2020

Wed Aug 12, 2020 7:05 am

flyguy89 wrote:
art wrote:
Questions for those who have a view...

What performance characteristics are required for a vaccine to be seen as effective?

Would a vaccine that stops 50% of people becoming infected, reduces the effects of infection in 30%, does not have any effect in 20% be seen as effective?

Is there a threshold vaccines need to cross to be deemed sufficiently effective to be useful?

The FDA will only authorize a vaccine if it's at least 50% effective. Scientists view 50-60% effectiveness as probably acceptable enough to end the pandemic. Fauci thinks 90+% effectiveness is unlikely for any vaccine, but that 50-60% effectiveness should be enough.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/08/07/coronav ... great.html


Thanks for that.

The numbers regarding effectiveness do not make me optimistic. A vaccine offering around 60% protection would make about 4 billion people immune, leaving about 3 billion susceptible to infection. I think that people keen to get back to normality will see a vaccine as making them invulnerable (particularly if politicians see it as a pretext for fully re-opening their economies, dropping requirements for masks/social distancing ). I see a big hike in the transmission rate in the 3 billion left vulnerable to infection.

I don't think we will be out of the woods with vaccination protecting 60% of the world population from infection.

Just a thought: I wonder if being given 2 different vaccines, each offering 60% protection would result in a protection level above 60%.
 
lowwkjax
Posts: 55
Joined: Sun Sep 02, 2018 10:52 am

Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q3 2020

Wed Aug 12, 2020 7:40 am

T4thH wrote:
lowwkjax wrote:
I’m kinda surprised not to see a discussion about Russia’s approval of what they call the “world’s first Corona vaccine”.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-53735718

It’s not known whether they have completed several stages of testing or not and the results of their tests are unknown as well as they have not published much information internationally, only that their vaccine is based on a former development of a MERS-vaccine (also a Coronavirus-type).

Most common comments in the western world is - surprise - critics and saying how it’s impossible to have a safe and effective vaccine after so little time.

I want to add my personal opinion - Russia has been known as an effective and reliable drug and vaccine developer for years over years now and in no way would they risk bringing out a vaccine that is neither safe nor effective. I just think that they don’t take ethnicity as seriously as most western countries do as someone who has family in Russia told me that they vaccinated volunteers within the military and injected them the Coronavirus a month after the vaccine to see if they would get sick or what the side effects would be. That way they didn’t have to wait months over months to see if anyone gets sick, that way they were able to quickly determine whether the vaccine actually works and to be honest, long term side effects is something that a year of testing wouldn’t show either.

I for myself have a feeling that the Russians know exactly what they’re doing here, they would never risk their standing, especially not at this time as they’re not “in a hurry” with others being months behind them, they just have a different approach to some things...

You are aware, clinical tests are performed in 3 phases, phase I, II and III. After phase III completion (with thousands of test persons), there will be the approval by regulatory authorities.

According to my knowledge, phase I was scheduled to last till Sep. or Oct-2020 with testing of in total 38 test persons (for this phase one trial)? So have even all of these 38 test persons already received the vaccination? Have they even tested, if the test patients have produced antibodies? Have they tested, if these antibodies bind to the virus and more important, do they bind to the receptor part of the proteins of the virus? It is already known, that antibodies, binding not to the receptor part of the proteins of the virus have no effect. There are no publications till now regarding the trial, not even in peer review.

This is a complete untested "political vaccination", it is not approved by any authority in Russia, Putin has decided, that it is working and to be used by decree.

So regarding to your last part:
I for myself have a feeling that the Russians know exactly what they’re doing here, they would never risk their standing, especially not at this time as they’re not “in a hurry” with others being months behind them, they just have a different approach to some things...

Sorry, but this is rubbish. The Russians do not know anything, it is to early, it is not tested. But the great "Führer" can do it by decree. And of course, the great "Führer" is in hurry, he has to show the greatness of his big "country" to the own people...(and all of the Putin fan boys globally) as the approval rating for him is now on the way to the bottom. The Russians in Putinista...sorry, Russia, are now not any more so happy with him.


I am aware, no way not to be aware of the stages with how widely this is being discussed in every type of media every day.

Has anyone considered the possibility that Russia has taken the shortcut of purposely infecting vaccinated people with the virus? But of course they won’t publish that and will go with “we told you so, it works” once it’s been out and used for some months? I highly doubt Russia would risk having thousands of people sick or worse from this and losing their reputation... and yes there is a world outside of America and that world doesn’t see everything Russia does as “can’t work, BS for sure”.

In all seriousness, this pandemic may kill more people from it’s side effects than from the virus itself and while I’m all for making sure a vaccine is safe (enough), purposely infecting people with the virus to see how good a vaccine works may kill a few people, but for that number would be smaller than the number of those losing/ending their life through or because of “side effects”, don’t forget those who die because they don’t receive the same medical attention as they would without this pandemic, and so on...
 
flyguy89
Posts: 3442
Joined: Tue Feb 24, 2009 6:43 pm

Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q3 2020

Wed Aug 12, 2020 7:54 am

art wrote:
flyguy89 wrote:
art wrote:
Questions for those who have a view...

What performance characteristics are required for a vaccine to be seen as effective?

Would a vaccine that stops 50% of people becoming infected, reduces the effects of infection in 30%, does not have any effect in 20% be seen as effective?

Is there a threshold vaccines need to cross to be deemed sufficiently effective to be useful?

The FDA will only authorize a vaccine if it's at least 50% effective. Scientists view 50-60% effectiveness as probably acceptable enough to end the pandemic. Fauci thinks 90+% effectiveness is unlikely for any vaccine, but that 50-60% effectiveness should be enough.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/08/07/coronav ... great.html


Thanks for that.

The numbers regarding effectiveness do not make me optimistic. A vaccine offering around 60% protection would make about 4 billion people immune, leaving about 3 billion susceptible to infection. I think that people keen to get back to normality will see a vaccine as making them invulnerable (particularly if politicians see it as a pretext for fully re-opening their economies, dropping requirements for masks/social distancing ). I see a big hike in the transmission rate in the 3 billion left vulnerable to infection.

I don't think we will be out of the woods with vaccination protecting 60% of the world population from infection.

Just a thought: I wonder if being given 2 different vaccines, each offering 60% protection would result in a protection level above 60%.

Remember, this is not an eradication play. Eradication is not going to be possible with this Coronavirus, it's here to stay and will continue circulating for years to come. Cutting transmission by 60% (in addition to natural immunity) will go a long way toward reducing the strain on healthcare systems that a return to more normal activities would otherwise cause.
 
94717
Posts: 2789
Joined: Tue Feb 06, 2007 3:38 am

Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q3 2020

Wed Aug 12, 2020 8:00 am

Any Vaccine will also probably have effect less then a year. This means that we will have outbreaks until probably 2025..
 
art
Posts: 4224
Joined: Tue Feb 08, 2005 11:46 am

Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q3 2020

Wed Aug 12, 2020 8:29 am

flyguy89 wrote:
art wrote:
The numbers regarding effectiveness do not make me optimistic. A vaccine offering around 60% protection would make about 4 billion people immune, leaving about 3 billion susceptible to infection. I think that people keen to get back to normality will see a vaccine as making them invulnerable (particularly if politicians see it as a pretext for fully re-opening their economies, dropping requirements for masks/social distancing ). I see a big hike in the transmission rate in the 3 billion left vulnerable to infection.

I don't think we will be out of the woods with vaccination protecting 60% of the world population from infection. .

Remember, this is not an eradication play. Eradication is not going to be possible with this Coronavirus, it's here to stay and will continue circulating for years to come. Cutting transmission by 60% (in addition to natural immunity) will go a long way toward reducing the strain on healthcare systems that a return to more normal activities would otherwise cause.


Agreed. But I fear that transmission will not be cut by 60%. Thinking about what might happen in the US, where there are large pools of infection, positive tests are currently running at a rate of 15+ million per annum. If 2/3 of the population became immune through vaccination that would drop to 5+ million a year with no change in behaviour. I foresee a big change in behaviour, though, once everyone is vaccinated, raising the level of transmission in the non-immune population.

Couple of things. I wonder how many people in the US would decline vaccination (anti-vaxxers, people who did not want to pay to be vaccinated). I wonder also about herd immunity. I read that in some areas a high proportion of random tests are positive (10%+). If so, how long will it be before almost everyone without natural immunity has caught the virus, recovered and ceased to be a possible spreader?
 
VSMUT
Posts: 5497
Joined: Mon Aug 08, 2016 11:40 am

Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q3 2020

Wed Aug 12, 2020 9:05 am

olle wrote:
Number of death and in intensive care is very low in all countries and considering that Sweden has a population of Denmark and Norway combined the picture today looks very similar.


You had 5770 dead and 83126 cases. Denmark and Norway had a combined total of 877 dead and 24710 cases so far. How is that remotely similar? You have over 3 times as many cases and over 6 times as many dead!


olle wrote:
What the difference is what Sweden experienced is that Covid started in Sweden in december 2019 compared to February 2020, a critical 3 month. In December and January noone has covid on the map in Europe.


Evidence please.

Sweden, Norway and Denmark are closely connected. Knowing how fast Coronavirus spreads, it is really far-fetched that you had it and we didn't.


olle wrote:
Regarding Mr Tegnell and what he is smoking and that everyone seems to hate in this forum, I must say that compared to listen to the governments in Spain, Denmark where the governments seems to have taken the decisions on quit unprofessional basis Mr Tegnell at least told the Swedish people that this will take probably 36 month and we do not really know what we are doing.


Unprofessional in what way? You mean by actually following the recommendations of the relevant organizations and shutting down the country to prevent a dangerous virus from running rampant and killing way more people than necessary?


olle wrote:
but there seems like Denmark getting worse hit this time.


It is true that there is a problem in Århus, due to especially Somali immigrants completely disregarding Corona restrictions at an Eid celebration and a funeral. But unlike Sweden, something is actually being done about it. So far, the "worse hit" has only just reached the same level Sweden is at right now.
 
94717
Posts: 2789
Joined: Tue Feb 06, 2007 3:38 am

Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q3 2020

Wed Aug 12, 2020 10:07 am

VSMUT wrote:
olle wrote:
Number of death and in intensive care is very low in all countries and considering that Sweden has a population of Denmark and Norway combined the picture today looks very similar.


You had 5770 dead and 83126 cases. Denmark and Norway had a combined total of 877 dead and 24710 cases so far. How is that remotely similar? You have over 3 times as many cases and over 6 times as many dead!


olle wrote:
What the difference is what Sweden experienced is that Covid started in Sweden in december 2019 compared to February 2020, a critical 3 month. In December and January noone has covid on the map in Europe.


Evidence please.

Sweden, Norway and Denmark are closely connected. Knowing how fast Coronavirus spreads, it is really far-fetched that you had it and we didn't.


olle wrote:
Regarding Mr Tegnell and what he is smoking and that everyone seems to hate in this forum, I must say that compared to listen to the governments in Spain, Denmark where the governments seems to have taken the decisions on quit unprofessional basis Mr Tegnell at least told the Swedish people that this will take probably 36 month and we do not really know what we are doing.


Unprofessional in what way? You mean by actually following the recommendations of the relevant organizations and shutting down the country to prevent a dangerous virus from running rampant and killing way more people than necessary?


olle wrote:
but there seems like Denmark getting worse hit this time.


It is true that there is a problem in Århus, due to especially Somali immigrants completely disregarding Corona restrictions at an Eid celebration and a funeral. But unlike Sweden, something is actually being done about it. So far, the "worse hit" has only just reached the same level Sweden is at right now.


I wrote that now from the start of the summer Scandinavia are on same level. If you combine Norway Denmark and compare that with sweden at Intensive care and death It looks very similar. Most regions outside stockholm was more similar norway and denmark tru the first wave of pandemic except stockholm.

I been writing number of times that in April May Sweden failed totally. Now Sweden from mid may got it correct.

Regarding WHO and requests on lock down I actually agree. I stopped sending my girl to school in April when it was at worse. Now I am in Spain and I see the other side of the coin with kids that has been locked into apartments 3 month without getting out and lost education.

Regarding that death and spread o virus started before february I have provided a link that discuss that it seems that first cases came to Sweden in November 2019. Proof are complicated to get while noone tested for it, people has shown anti bodies for corona while being sick that period. Regarding death in 2019 I cannot right now find and confirm but there has been tests reevaluated from that period but we will probably never really know.

Regarding Somali, what is the point? Do you know that immigrant groups and special Somali and Syrian groups stand for a major parts of the Swedish death? One of the biggest disasters in Sweden spring 2020 was information to Somali and Syrian groups special older persons. I find i surprising that Denmark when open up again did not learn from the mistakes Sweden did 6 month earlier. Denmark had all chances.

https://www.expressen.se/nyheter/minst- ... ksomalier/

Sorry in Swedish but in short that says 6 of 15 or close half the death in Stockholm was Somali See translation below;

Considering that in Stockholm has until today 2387 of the total Swedish 5700 dead and considering if 6/15 of them is somali there should be around 950 of the Swedish dead only considering Stockholm Somali background. Then we have the second biggest group from Syria etc.

Swedish professional class brought it home for their Christmas and sport holidays but the taxi drivers often somali and syrian picking them up at the airports unprotected paid most by being sick and death in their families.


I see one tendency in both Norway and Denmark. It is always someone else fault. The hurtigrutten distaster in Norway was the fault of a crew from Fillipines. That also well paying customer from other places could also be the fault is not mentioned while it was the tourists entering airports and ports in Norway while the Philipine crew stayed I guess on board.

The young in Norway and special Oslo it seems go out and have parties all night long and be drunk together, but it is always the ones driving to swedish border shops in regions with lower number of cases then Oslo for example where they meet 99% norwegians and not swedish locals that get the blame.

In Denmark it is the Somali that get the blame or people who went to Sweden. During most of the first wave the south of Sweden had lower number of cases then Copenhagen. But that the people went to Sweden and did not follow Swedish regulations when partying is not mentioned in Denmark. In Sweden we realize that we failed the Somali group big times by believing all people are like Swedish middle class.. In denmark they get the blame for getting sick while they often work in positions like taxi driver, supermarkets buss drivers that is high risk. Secon they often lives squeezed 3 generations in small apartments because of low salaries. Therefore this kind of groups were the one Denmark and Norway need to protect. They get sick in their work and it kills the grand parents often living in the same apartment.

The article translated regarding Somali cases;


-------------------------------------------

The authorities' information about corona in languages ​​other than Swedish was too bad - and came too late.

This is the opinion of Swedish-Somali Imam Hussein Farah at the Islamic Culture Center Mosque in Rinkeby after the alarm that six of the fifteen people who died from the virus in Stockholm were Swedish-Somalis from the same overcrowded area.

Six out of fifteen dead in covid-19 in Stockholm are Swedish-Somalis from the same area. The Medical Association is now alerting about this, reports SVT .

- Most had underlying diseases. But a man in his 60s, who died yesterday, gave a very healthy impression even though we do not know his medical history. Many were shocked when they learned that he had died, says doctor Jihan Mohamed, board member of the Swedish Somali Medical Association, to the channel.

Several of those who died lived in the Järva area. The mood there has been uneasy in recent weeks.

- People are shocked and worried. Several of them are mourning relatives now, says Hussein Farah.

He is an imam at Kultur Center's Mosque in Rinkeby, where almost all operations have now been closed down to reduce the spread of infection. The mosque has recently been demolished by worried people who could not speak Swedish well enough to be able to take the authorities' advice about the coronavirus.

Recently, a Somali-speaking doctor was chosen to tell visitors who were wondering about the virus. Even before the prayers, information has been given, says Hussein Farah.
 
frmrCapCadet
Posts: 5140
Joined: Thu May 29, 2008 8:24 pm

Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q3 2020

Wed Aug 12, 2020 12:57 pm

art wrote:
Questions for those who have a view...

What performance characteristics are required for a vaccine to be seen as effective?

Would a vaccine that stops 50% of people becoming infected, reduces the effects of infection in 30%, does not have any effect in 20% be seen as effective?

Is there a threshold vaccines need to cross to be deemed sufficiently effective to be useful?


I think the numbers you've listed would be rated as an "OK" virus. If it achieved those for my age group (old), I would feel safe using public transit with an N95 mass frequently. Have a large family gathering, people generally wearing OK masks. 55 and 35% - wear masks when in crowds, maybe go to indoor restaurants if community spreading was low.
 
User avatar
VTKillarney
Posts: 1954
Joined: Mon Jan 22, 2018 3:13 pm

Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q3 2020

Wed Aug 12, 2020 1:10 pm

DLFREEBIRD wrote:
Then the U.K. says that Oxford Vaccine, will only go to U.K. residents. So, i think the U.S. is on it's own.

Completely wrong.
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/05/21/coronav ... ccine.html
 
94717
Posts: 2789
Joined: Tue Feb 06, 2007 3:38 am

Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q3 2020

Wed Aug 12, 2020 1:19 pm

Norway puts all europe on ywllow or red...
 
PPVRA
Posts: 8613
Joined: Fri Nov 12, 2004 7:48 am

Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q3 2020

Wed Aug 12, 2020 2:41 pm

Good article on antibodies, T cells, how they work and implications for testing and vaccines.

https://www.nationalgeographic.com/scie ... virus-cvd/
 
VSMUT
Posts: 5497
Joined: Mon Aug 08, 2016 11:40 am

Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q3 2020

Wed Aug 12, 2020 3:06 pm

olle wrote:
I wrote that now from the start of the summer Scandinavia are on same level. If you combine Norway Denmark and compare that with sweden at Intensive care and death It looks very similar. Most regions outside stockholm was more similar norway and denmark tru the first wave of pandemic except stockholm.


No, it wasn't even close at the start of the summer.


olle wrote:
Regarding WHO and requests on lock down I actually agree. I stopped sending my girl to school in April when it was at worse. Now I am in Spain and I see the other side of the coin with kids that has been locked into apartments 3 month without getting out and lost education.


So you actually agree with the Danish method and not with Tegnell.


olle wrote:
Regarding that death and spread o virus started before february I have provided a link that discuss that it seems that first cases came to Sweden in November 2019. Proof are complicated to get while noone tested for it, people has shown anti bodies for corona while being sick that period. Regarding death in 2019 I cannot right now find and confirm but there has been tests reevaluated from that period but we will probably never really know.


I've searched the internet far and wide, and all I get is, summed up: "Tegnell made the claim and provided absolutely no backup, and also says people should stop looking into it". It is apparent to everyone that he is just covering his ass.


olle wrote:
In Denmark it is the Somali that get the blame or people who went to Sweden.


And all the Danish tourists who went to Austria in February. We definitely blamed them as well, so it isn't just foreigners who got the blame.


olle wrote:
During most of the first wave the south of Sweden had lower number of cases then Copenhagen.


Indeed, your media loved proclaiming that, except it wasn't true:
https://www.dr.dk/nyheder/detektor/dete ... us-lige-nu


olle wrote:
But that the people went to Sweden and did not follow Swedish regulations when partying is not mentioned in Denmark.


Denmark is not responsible for what goes on in Sweden. That is the job of the Swedish government. An absolutely bonkers argument.

BTW, regarding all those complaints that the Swedish foreign minister claimed to have received. She only received 1 complaint:
https://www.dr.dk/nyheder/detektor/dete ... e-turister
 
GDB
Posts: 14408
Joined: Wed May 23, 2001 6:25 pm

Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q3 2020

Wed Aug 12, 2020 3:22 pm

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfr ... ne-cartoon

Aside from mocking someone who really cannot stand being mocked (like his US counterpart), what does an expert in the field think?

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfr ... -effective
 
flyguy89
Posts: 3442
Joined: Tue Feb 24, 2009 6:43 pm

Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q3 2020

Wed Aug 12, 2020 4:50 pm

art wrote:
flyguy89 wrote:
art wrote:
The numbers regarding effectiveness do not make me optimistic. A vaccine offering around 60% protection would make about 4 billion people immune, leaving about 3 billion susceptible to infection. I think that people keen to get back to normality will see a vaccine as making them invulnerable (particularly if politicians see it as a pretext for fully re-opening their economies, dropping requirements for masks/social distancing ). I see a big hike in the transmission rate in the 3 billion left vulnerable to infection.

I don't think we will be out of the woods with vaccination protecting 60% of the world population from infection. .

Remember, this is not an eradication play. Eradication is not going to be possible with this Coronavirus, it's here to stay and will continue circulating for years to come. Cutting transmission by 60% (in addition to natural immunity) will go a long way toward reducing the strain on healthcare systems that a return to more normal activities would otherwise cause.


Agreed. But I fear that transmission will not be cut by 60%. Thinking about what might happen in the US, where there are large pools of infection, positive tests are currently running at a rate of 15+ million per annum. If 2/3 of the population became immune through vaccination that would drop to 5+ million a year with no change in behaviour. I foresee a big change in behaviour, though, once everyone is vaccinated, raising the level of transmission in the non-immune population.

I'm not sure you're taking into account the immunity/attenuation of the disease that would occur among those infected. Assuming the CDC is correct in their assumption that for each confirmed case there's actually 10 undiagnosed/asymptomatic cases, your 15 million per annum case total is actually 150 million, almost half the US population having virus exposure prior to vaccination. Flare ups and local epidemics will certainly continue, but the threat thereof is at least greatly diminished even with a big change in behavior.

art wrote:
Couple of things. I wonder how many people in the US would decline vaccination (anti-vaxxers, people who did not want to pay to be vaccinated).

This IMO is going to be the biggest hurdle when it comes to vaccination, and it's not just a US problem. Supposedly there's already work being done to launch a campaign blitz to educate and work with communities and minorities who may otherwise be reticent about getting a vaccine. We shall see..

art wrote:
I wonder also about herd immunity. I read that in some areas a high proportion of random tests are positive (10%+). If so, how long will it be before almost everyone without natural immunity has caught the virus, recovered and ceased to be a possible spreader?

One thing to keep an eye on as well centers on the growing body of evidence that exposure to existing coronaviruses may mean upwards of 30% of some populations may either have immunity or an immune system advantage when it comes to the new coronavirus.
 
User avatar
zkojq
Posts: 4732
Joined: Fri Sep 02, 2011 12:42 am

Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q3 2020

Wed Aug 12, 2020 5:58 pm

AirWorthy99 wrote:
New Zealand nor any country has won this battle yet. The only way a country will win is if all their people get immune to this virus, either by herd immunity or a very effective vaccine.

Right now it may seem that despite all the problems Sweden has managed to reach certain herd immunity (based on current case trend and deaths). New Zealand is by far the country extremely far from getting herd immunity. So their bet is stay isolated from the rest of the world for ever or hope the vaccine is extremely effective in order to be an open country and not North Korea type.


New Zealand got 102 days closer to a vaccine with limited economic damage and no deaths for that period. The "new normal" up until today has been exactly the same as the old "normal" but with less international tourists and more domestic tourists. Your North Korea comparison is absolutely garbage.

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/300070 ... -negatives

https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/business/420 ... -than-most


flyguy89 wrote:
No one is discussing it because no one is buying it. There's no way scientifically they could know at this point that it works, otherwise they would have released the data. The fact that they nicknamed it "Sputnik" shows that all they care about is being able to say they were the first with any type of vaccine, not actually advancing anything that would end the pandemic.


:checkmark:
 
94717
Posts: 2789
Joined: Tue Feb 06, 2007 3:38 am

Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q3 2020

Wed Aug 12, 2020 6:26 pm

VSMUT wrote:
olle wrote:
I wrote that now from the start of the summer Scandinavia are on same level. If you combine Norway Denmark and compare that with sweden at Intensive care and death It looks very similar. Most regions outside stockholm was more similar norway and denmark tru the first wave of pandemic except stockholm.


No, it wasn't even close at the start of the summer.


olle wrote:
Regarding WHO and requests on lock down I actually agree. I stopped sending my girl to school in April when it was at worse. Now I am in Spain and I see the other side of the coin with kids that has been locked into apartments 3 month without getting out and lost education.


So you actually agree with the Danish method and not with Tegnell.


olle wrote:
Regarding that death and spread o virus started before february I have provided a link that discuss that it seems that first cases came to Sweden in November 2019. Proof are complicated to get while noone tested for it, people has shown anti bodies for corona while being sick that period. Regarding death in 2019 I cannot right now find and confirm but there has been tests reevaluated from that period but we will probably never really know.


I've searched the internet far and wide, and all I get is, summed up: "Tegnell made the claim and provided absolutely no backup, and also says people should stop looking into it". It is apparent to everyone that he is just covering his ass.


olle wrote:
In Denmark it is the Somali that get the blame or people who went to Sweden.


And all the Danish tourists who went to Austria in February. We definitely blamed them as well, so it isn't just foreigners who got the blame.


olle wrote:
During most of the first wave the south of Sweden had lower number of cases then Copenhagen.


Indeed, your media loved proclaiming that, except it wasn't true:
https://www.dr.dk/nyheder/detektor/dete ... us-lige-nu


olle wrote:
But that the people went to Sweden and did not follow Swedish regulations when partying is not mentioned in Denmark.


Denmark is not responsible for what goes on in Sweden. That is the job of the Swedish government. An absolutely bonkers argument.

BTW, regarding all those complaints that the Swedish foreign minister claimed to have received. She only received 1 complaint:
https://www.dr.dk/nyheder/detektor/dete ... e-turister


As i mentioned in january i was sitting in south america in work and in private business. During that time i had a number of meetings with hongkong, japan and other locations both in china and in asia. I knew what was coming and there fore my family did not book traval to spain for february.

I had a number of both colleges and other contacts that was flying back and forth to the regions affected.

When spain and italy was hit late jan or early feb i was not surprised at all. What surprised me was the delayed reaction of the european countries until second half of feb and how terrible people got affected. In April i supported lock down but today i actually changed my mind. Seeing for example somali in aarhus denmark i wonder if sweden would have learned from lessons rven if was affected. I think that this increase what happens in europe today is a effect of the lockdown and it was expected to happen 3-5 weeks after open up.

I am in spain right now. It is the obligation of me to follow insyructions. It is embarrasing to see teenage from northern europe not doing it and destroy the lifehood of the people here.

In sweden you have rules to keep distance, older people shall not have social relations etc. I expect tourists to understand local requirements just as i understand the one in germany france etc when i am driving thru in one week from now.
 
DLFREEBIRD
Posts: 1613
Joined: Thu Mar 05, 2015 6:07 pm

Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q3 2020

Wed Aug 12, 2020 7:26 pm

VTKillarney wrote:
DLFREEBIRD wrote:
Then the U.K. says that Oxford Vaccine, will only go to U.K. residents. So, i think the U.S. is on it's own.

Completely wrong.
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/05/21/coronav ... ccine.html

Of all the news articles out there, you post a three month old article? and say completely wrong?

It's not that hard to keep up on this subject. google is your friend.
 
flyguy89
Posts: 3442
Joined: Tue Feb 24, 2009 6:43 pm

Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q3 2020

Wed Aug 12, 2020 7:36 pm

DLFREEBIRD wrote:
VTKillarney wrote:
DLFREEBIRD wrote:
Then the U.K. says that Oxford Vaccine, will only go to U.K. residents. So, i think the U.S. is on it's own.

Completely wrong.
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/05/21/coronav ... ccine.html

Of all the news articles out there, you post a three month old article? and say completely wrong?

It's not that hard to keep up on this subject. google is your friend.

What difference does it make that the article is three months ago if nothing has changed? The US has invested significantly in the Oxford vaccine and is slated to begin receiving deliveries of it this fall.
 
94717
Posts: 2789
Joined: Tue Feb 06, 2007 3:38 am

Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q3 2020

Wed Aug 12, 2020 9:27 pm

I actually have changed oppinion pretty much since january.

First I thought that closing down was the smartest thing possible to do.

Now after following the development in south north america, europe I get a little bit different oppinion.

I consider that lock down is good if the health care is about to fall thru. One lockdown in my current oppinion seems to just move thr problems forward a bit.

In spain and chile where I live part of thd year the costs of the lockdown will mean poverty a lost generation for many.

This will mean that many that is young today will live shorter then they could have.

What happens after the lock down? It seems to come back.

The success of lockdown seems to be a lottery. You need to start it very early and keep 8t going. NZ Finland is successfully examples, UK, Spain, and now Australia. Honestly I hope that the lockdown in for example spain saved a lot of people because soon people will start to jump from the buildings when the effect of the economical crisis starts like 2008 but much much worse.

I think the method to calculated dead is betyer in germany where calculated dead by covid rather then dead with covid. Norway for example has less dead then a normal year. Even sweden has from july less death then the last 5 years. I think sweden in july had 370 less dead then a normal year in july.

Is it worse to get 3-4 years of recovering in norway and have less dead then a normal year?

I hope it it is. In italy and spain it will take 10 years to recover with probably 50% youth unemloyment just after the last generation started to recover from 2008 years crisis.

I also recognize that for examle countries put all eggs on lockdowns. Australia chile is last example. Chile opens up now and covid will return with full force. We do not seem to learn from each other like the case of somali in denmark.

Right now it seems like there is a rush to close borders again. The spread is always the fault of the other even if the party is going on at home and with full beaches.
 
N583JB
Posts: 1089
Joined: Tue Oct 08, 2019 9:58 pm

Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q3 2020

Thu Aug 13, 2020 12:33 am

Duke University tested over 3,000 students upon their arrival back on campus this month. Only four students tested positive for COVID-19. I really don't understand how that is possible. North Carolina has plenty of COVID going around, and these students returned from not only North Carolina but from all across the country. Moreover, they are young adults which means that many of them were probably doing social activities prior to their arrival and not quarantining. To have such a low rate of positive tests is absolutely baffling.
 
737307
Posts: 2945
Joined: Tue Dec 26, 2017 6:27 pm

Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q3 2020

Thu Aug 13, 2020 12:37 am

N583JB wrote:
Duke University tested over 3,000 students upon their arrival back on campus this month. Only four students tested positive for COVID-19. I really don't understand how that is possible. North Carolina has plenty of COVID going around, and these students returned from not only North Carolina but from all across the country. Moreover, they are young adults which means that many of them were probably doing social activities prior to their arrival and not quarantining. To have such a low rate of positive tests is absolutely baffling.


Depends on the definition of “positive “.
 
DLFREEBIRD
Posts: 1613
Joined: Thu Mar 05, 2015 6:07 pm

Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q3 2020

Thu Aug 13, 2020 2:05 am

flyguy89 wrote:
DLFREEBIRD wrote:
VTKillarney wrote:

Of all the news articles out there, you post a three month old article? and say completely wrong?

It's not that hard to keep up on this subject. google is your friend.

What difference does it make that the article is three months ago if nothing has changed? The US has invested significantly in the Oxford vaccine and is slated to begin receiving deliveries of it this fall.


no, that's not happening, again that's a 3 month old article. China front and center with the vaccine has four human trials near completion
UK human trial going first in Sept. Maybe U.S. will get a human trial in late Nov. that's not this fall. So much for Trump's warp speed, and big funding. This is nations turning Trump's nationalism against him.
 
User avatar
Francoflier
Posts: 5943
Joined: Wed Oct 31, 2001 12:27 pm

Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q3 2020

Thu Aug 13, 2020 2:30 am

N583JB wrote:
Duke University tested over 3,000 students upon their arrival back on campus this month. Only four students tested positive for COVID-19. I really don't understand how that is possible. North Carolina has plenty of COVID going around, and these students returned from not only North Carolina but from all across the country. Moreover, they are young adults which means that many of them were probably doing social activities prior to their arrival and not quarantining. To have such a low rate of positive tests is absolutely baffling.


What kind of testing was done? PCR or antibody?

PCR testing only gives you a snapshot of who has it at the time of testing. Antibody would tell you who has had it recently.

NC has recorded around 13 cases per 1000 residents so far. The majority of these would have had an outcome by now, leaving only a fraction of that figure as active cases.
Add to that the fact that younger people tend to show less symptoms (or may be more immune to it) and are less likely to test positive, and also the fact that those that are sick would have remained home, then that's not really a surprising figure if we're talking about PCR testing.

It would be more curious if that was the result of antibody testing, however.
 
flyguy89
Posts: 3442
Joined: Tue Feb 24, 2009 6:43 pm

Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q3 2020

Thu Aug 13, 2020 2:54 am

DLFREEBIRD wrote:
flyguy89 wrote:
DLFREEBIRD wrote:
Of all the news articles out there, you post a three month old article? and say completely wrong?

It's not that hard to keep up on this subject. google is your friend.

What difference does it make that the article is three months ago if nothing has changed? The US has invested significantly in the Oxford vaccine and is slated to begin receiving deliveries of it this fall.


no, that's not happening, again that's a 3 month old article. China front and center with the vaccine has four human trials near completion
UK human trial going first in Sept. Maybe U.S. will get a human trial in late Nov. that's not this fall. So much for Trump's warp speed, and big funding. This is nations turning Trump's nationalism against him.

I'm sorry, but you're misinformed. The Oxford vaccine is starting phase 3 trials in the US this month. Production of that vaccine will be taking place in part in the US. Production is slated to begin on the Oxford vaccine and others before the completion of human trials.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/oxford-uni ... 1595254222

https://www.fiercepharma.com/manufactur ... hot-supply

The above are recent articles. If anything has changed since in the way you're implying, post your source.
 
User avatar
Erebus
Posts: 1167
Joined: Tue Oct 20, 2015 2:40 am

Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q3 2020

Fri Aug 14, 2020 2:00 am

lowwkjax wrote:
T4thH wrote:
lowwkjax wrote:
I’m kinda surprised not to see a discussion about Russia’s approval of what they call the “world’s first Corona vaccine”.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-53735718

It’s not known whether they have completed several stages of testing or not and the results of their tests are unknown as well as they have not published much information internationally, only that their vaccine is based on a former development of a MERS-vaccine (also a Coronavirus-type).

Most common comments in the western world is - surprise - critics and saying how it’s impossible to have a safe and effective vaccine after so little time.

I want to add my personal opinion - Russia has been known as an effective and reliable drug and vaccine developer for years over years now and in no way would they risk bringing out a vaccine that is neither safe nor effective. I just think that they don’t take ethnicity as seriously as most western countries do as someone who has family in Russia told me that they vaccinated volunteers within the military and injected them the Coronavirus a month after the vaccine to see if they would get sick or what the side effects would be. That way they didn’t have to wait months over months to see if anyone gets sick, that way they were able to quickly determine whether the vaccine actually works and to be honest, long term side effects is something that a year of testing wouldn’t show either.

I for myself have a feeling that the Russians know exactly what they’re doing here, they would never risk their standing, especially not at this time as they’re not “in a hurry” with others being months behind them, they just have a different approach to some things...

You are aware, clinical tests are performed in 3 phases, phase I, II and III. After phase III completion (with thousands of test persons), there will be the approval by regulatory authorities.

According to my knowledge, phase I was scheduled to last till Sep. or Oct-2020 with testing of in total 38 test persons (for this phase one trial)? So have even all of these 38 test persons already received the vaccination? Have they even tested, if the test patients have produced antibodies? Have they tested, if these antibodies bind to the virus and more important, do they bind to the receptor part of the proteins of the virus? It is already known, that antibodies, binding not to the receptor part of the proteins of the virus have no effect. There are no publications till now regarding the trial, not even in peer review.

This is a complete untested "political vaccination", it is not approved by any authority in Russia, Putin has decided, that it is working and to be used by decree.

So regarding to your last part:
I for myself have a feeling that the Russians know exactly what they’re doing here, they would never risk their standing, especially not at this time as they’re not “in a hurry” with others being months behind them, they just have a different approach to some things...

Sorry, but this is rubbish. The Russians do not know anything, it is to early, it is not tested. But the great "Führer" can do it by decree. And of course, the great "Führer" is in hurry, he has to show the greatness of his big "country" to the own people...(and all of the Putin fan boys globally) as the approval rating for him is now on the way to the bottom. The Russians in Putinista...sorry, Russia, are now not any more so happy with him.


I am aware, no way not to be aware of the stages with how widely this is being discussed in every type of media every day.

Has anyone considered the possibility that Russia has taken the shortcut of purposely infecting vaccinated people with the virus? But of course they won’t publish that and will go with “we told you so, it works” once it’s been out and used for some months? I highly doubt Russia would risk having thousands of people sick or worse from this and losing their reputation... and yes there is a world outside of America and that world doesn’t see everything Russia does as “can’t work, BS for sure”.


When I first read the overwhelmingly negative reactions in the western press to the vaccine announcement, I couldn't help but smack my head when the loudmouths gave what Putin wants to hear. He's pretty much playing a game of Russian Roulette with his own people. If it does not work, he knows how to manage that. If it does work, he's been gifted with ammunition for propaganda in the face of western skepticism. In all honesty, they should have just shut up and not give him any opinion.

lowwkjax wrote:
In all seriousness, this pandemic may kill more people from it’s side effects than from the virus itself and while I’m all for making sure a vaccine is safe (enough), purposely infecting people with the virus to see how good a vaccine works may kill a few people, but for that number would be smaller than the number of those losing/ending their life through or because of “side effects”, don’t forget those who die because they don’t receive the same medical attention as they would without this pandemic, and so on...


That is very Chernobyl of them, comrade...
 
User avatar
Francoflier
Posts: 5943
Joined: Wed Oct 31, 2001 12:27 pm

Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q3 2020

Fri Aug 14, 2020 4:42 am

Erebus wrote:
When I first read the overwhelmingly negative reactions in the western press to the vaccine announcement, I couldn't help but smack my head when the loudmouths gave what Putin wants to hear. He's pretty much playing a game of Russian Roulette with his own people. If it does not work, he knows how to manage that. If it does work, he's been gifted with ammunition for propaganda in the face of western skepticism. In all honesty, they should have just shut up and not give him any opinion.


Putin is nothing if not a master strategist.
You're right, he's impervious to any accusation or criticism from any other nation.

He has understood that this crisis is as much a public perception one as a medical one.
Upcoming vaccines may or may not be very effective, and even the most effective one will not eliminate covid overnight, if ever.
A vaccine will, however, go a long way towards appeasing the general fear and panic around the virus and allow to start returning towards a more normal society.
I think this is the bet Putin has made. The risk is fairly low. If the vaccine is not really effective, it won't really matter for the reasons above.
There's little risk of dangerous side effects either as proposed vaccines are all based on existing ones and in the worst case, Putin can easily keep any nasty surprise under wraps as he controls all of Russia's information.

I'm curious to see how it'll unfold.
 
art
Posts: 4224
Joined: Tue Feb 08, 2005 11:46 am

Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q3 2020

Fri Aug 14, 2020 6:23 am

Francoflier wrote:
I think this is the bet Putin has made. The risk is fairly low. If the vaccine is not really effective, it won't really matter for the reasons above.
There's little risk of dangerous side effects either as proposed vaccines are all based on existing ones and in the worst case, Putin can easily keep any nasty surprise under wraps as he controls all of Russia's information.

I'm curious to see how it'll unfold.


So am I.

It would be good to see what protection the vaccine offered to, say, the first 100,000 people who received it 4 or 8 weeks after vaccination. I presume (a) that if it works, Putin will not interfere with publication of results (b) if it does not work, publication of results will be suppressed.

On this one I think it might be a case of 'no news is bad news'.
 
94717
Posts: 2789
Joined: Tue Feb 06, 2007 3:38 am

Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q3 2020

Fri Aug 14, 2020 7:01 am

olle wrote:
Actually danish gdp decreased both in q1 and q2 while sweden grew still in q1. Then the dip q2 was bigger in sweden then in denmark during q2.

Let us see how q3 and q4 develops.


Now when real numbers start to get in the terrible race start to energe different

Denmark q1 -2.2% vs sweden 0.5
Denmark q2 -7.4 vs sweden -8.6

Total -9.6 vs - 8.1

The numbers seem to be worse then who prediction in april .

What can be said for both denmark and sweden is that thevprediction is that recovery will be much faster then Finland and Norway. Let us see what those predictions are worth.

Now the second wave comes and many countries will close down with more restrictions probably exept sweden :-) so who projections is probably more of a accountant practise then projections at this moment.
 
94717
Posts: 2789
Joined: Tue Feb 06, 2007 3:38 am

Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q3 2020

Fri Aug 14, 2020 8:40 am

olle wrote:
olle wrote:
Actually danish gdp decreased both in q1 and q2 while sweden grew still in q1. Then the dip q2 was bigger in sweden then in denmark during q2.

Let us see how q3 and q4 develops.


Now when real numbers start to get in the terrible race start to energe different

Denmark q1 -2.2% vs sweden 0.5
Denmark q2 -7.4 vs sweden -8.6

Total -9.6 vs - 8.1

The numbers seem to be worse then who prediction in april .

What can be said for both denmark and sweden is that thevprediction is that recovery will be much faster then Finland and Norway. Let us see what those predictions are worth.

Now the second wave comes and many countries will close down with more restrictions probably except sweden :-) so who projections is probably more of a accountant practise then projections at this moment.


To compare to Germany and UK both Denmark and Sweden are doing Ok, Germany Q1 -2% Q2 -10.1 total around 12.1 UK Q1 -2 Q2 20.4 total around - 22.4%.

Let us see when Finland and Norway comes with Q2 estimates and we get a more clear picture.
 
94717
Posts: 2789
Joined: Tue Feb 06, 2007 3:38 am

Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q3 2020

Fri Aug 14, 2020 9:44 am

I thought Australia got a warning period;


This sounds like the worse days in Madrid and northern italy during March April;

https://www.theguardian.com/australia-n ... -melbourne
 
melpax
Posts: 2197
Joined: Mon Apr 25, 2005 12:13 am

Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q3 2020

Fri Aug 14, 2020 11:07 am

olle wrote:
I thought Australia got a warning period;

This sounds like the worse days in Madrid and northern italy during March April;

https://www.theguardian.com/australia-n ... -melbourne


One of the biggest issues with aged care homes here is that they rely on low-paid personal care staff, who often have to take multiple jobs to make ends meet. Which has resulted in the spread of COVID to multiple homes....

A large number of homes are run as businesses, quite often with limited staff resourcing. Stories of 150-resident facilities with only 1 or 2 personal care staff on an overnight shift are common.

This story was run a couple of weeks back about the owners of one of the worst-hit Melbourne homes

https://www.smh.com.au/national/golden- ... 55i4b.html

Hopefully some change will come out of this....

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: Kent350787 and 52 guests

Popular Searches On Airliners.net

Top Photos of Last:   24 Hours  •  48 Hours  •  7 Days  •  30 Days  •  180 Days  •  365 Days  •  All Time

Military Aircraft Every type from fighters to helicopters from air forces around the globe

Classic Airliners Props and jets from the good old days

Flight Decks Views from inside the cockpit

Aircraft Cabins Passenger cabin shots showing seat arrangements as well as cargo aircraft interior

Cargo Aircraft Pictures of great freighter aircraft

Government Aircraft Aircraft flying government officials

Helicopters Our large helicopter section. Both military and civil versions

Blimps / Airships Everything from the Goodyear blimp to the Zeppelin

Night Photos Beautiful shots taken while the sun is below the horizon

Accidents Accident, incident and crash related photos

Air to Air Photos taken by airborne photographers of airborne aircraft

Special Paint Schemes Aircraft painted in beautiful and original liveries

Airport Overviews Airport overviews from the air or ground

Tails and Winglets Tail and Winglet closeups with beautiful airline logos