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flyguy89
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q3 2020

Tue Aug 25, 2020 11:11 pm

Kent350787 wrote:
KFTG wrote:
Oahu commits economic suicide again, going back into lockdown for 2 weeks, because reasons
https://www.hawaiinewsnow.com/2020/08/2 ... onse-oahu/


Did you read to the end of the article - the why is there. For those of us in "isolated" locations with reasonably low infection rates, such a lockdown can help in keeping things under control. My read is that the Government is looking towards Australia, where low numbers mean that tracking and tracing can drive infection rates even lower, allowing increased economic activity.

It does beg the question then as to what the hell they've been doing since March where they should have had plenty of time to ramp up testing and tracing capabilities.
 
Kent350787
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q3 2020

Tue Aug 25, 2020 11:29 pm

flyguy89 wrote:
Kent350787 wrote:
KFTG wrote:
Oahu commits economic suicide again, going back into lockdown for 2 weeks, because reasons
https://www.hawaiinewsnow.com/2020/08/2 ... onse-oahu/


Did you read to the end of the article - the why is there. For those of us in "isolated" locations with reasonably low infection rates, such a lockdown can help in keeping things under control. My read is that the Government is looking towards Australia, where low numbers mean that tracking and tracing can drive infection rates even lower, allowing increased economic activity.

It does beg the question then as to what the hell they've been doing since March where they should have had plenty of time to ramp up testing and tracing capabilities.


That is a very fair point. We've also found in Australia that some states have done it better than others. Victoria, our state with the largest outbreak nationally, has needed to train more tracers to cope with numbers, but also found it could learn fomr the very effectice experience in NSW, where community transmisison is back down to single digits new cases daily (8 million pop)
 
KFTG
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q3 2020

Wed Aug 26, 2020 2:39 am

With SARS-CoV-2 metrics on the wane...
Right on cue, a new study is out claiming that 6 feet social distancing is not enough:
https://www.bmj.com/content/370/bmj.m3223
 
Newark727
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q3 2020

Wed Aug 26, 2020 3:10 am

KFTG wrote:
With SARS-CoV-2 metrics on the wane...
Right on cue, a new study is out claiming that 6 feet social distancing is not enough:
https://www.bmj.com/content/370/bmj.m3223


Ah yes the sinister conspiracy that is... measuring how far your breath travels as an aerosol when you sneeze. I personally would be happy that with social distancing measures popping up everywhere, someone is testing how well they actually match with the mechanics of viral spread. But you can't produce a paper overnight, so the results get published now, even though the virus is on the downswing. Maybe we can use the information for the next airborne illness. What's the problem with this exactly?
 
94717
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q3 2020

Wed Aug 26, 2020 8:59 am

KFTG wrote:
Newark727 wrote:
Dieuwer wrote:
I am NOT convinced Swedish were NOT social distancing and NOT wearing masks.
So what an American Network purposedly was chasing Swedes who were not wearing masks to generate flamebait/clickbait headlines. Means nothing.
First thing you must understand living in the USA is that networks are garbage. TURN IT OFF.


So in that case, the difference between Sweden and the USA isn't mask policies at all - it's being able to show some basic civic responsibility by making a small number of really quite trivial changes to one's daily routine. Which I'm sure the people going on about the "COVID-19 industrial complex" are fully capable of doing.

Meanwhile in Sweden...

Image
Image
Image
Image


There is problems in whole scandinavia with people not respecting distance;

https://www.berlingske.dk/samfund/to-pa ... -noerrebro

This video is in Copenhagen. Similar stories comes from Oslo.

It is complicated to keep young adults to keep distance. This also show in statistics with young adult being most common to get sick right now.
 
KFTG
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q3 2020

Wed Aug 26, 2020 2:50 pm

Moderna vaccine appears to be effective
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/08/26/moderna ... ients.html
 
Newark727
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q3 2020

Wed Aug 26, 2020 4:03 pm

KFTG wrote:
Moderna vaccine appears to be effective
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/08/26/moderna ... ients.html


Awesome. Hope they can replicate these results on a larger scale soon.
 
KFTG
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q3 2020

Wed Aug 26, 2020 8:44 pm

Scientists miffed at apparent sharp drop in SARS-CoV-2 cases in Brazil despite no lockdown, herd immunity seemingly taking hold without a vaccine
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/th ... story.html

This bell curve is looking more and more familiar...
Image
 
KFTG
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q3 2020

Wed Aug 26, 2020 10:29 pm

Dr David Nabarro, a special envoy of The World Health Organisation (one of six) specializing in COVID-19, has endorsed Sweden's approach to the pandemic and is encouraging nations like NZ to move in that direction
https://www.magic.co.nz/home/news/2020/ ... speci.html
 
MaverickM11
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q3 2020

Wed Aug 26, 2020 10:42 pm

KFTG wrote:
Scientists miffed at apparent sharp drop in SARS-CoV-2 cases in Brazil despite no lockdown, herd immunity seemingly taking hold without a vaccine
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/th ... story.html

This bell curve is looking more and more familiar...
Image

For the USA to reach the same level of 'herd immunity', if that is indeed what is occurring in Manaus, 600,000 Americans would have to die, three times the current toll.
 
737307
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q3 2020

Wed Aug 26, 2020 10:44 pm

Don't forget that a large portion of the Brazilian population is enlisted in the AstraZeneca vaccine trial.
 
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Francoflier
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q3 2020

Thu Aug 27, 2020 2:29 am

KFTG wrote:
Scientists miffed at apparent sharp drop in SARS-CoV-2 cases in Brazil despite no lockdown, herd immunity seemingly taking hold without a vaccine
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/th ... story.html

This bell curve is looking more and more familiar...
Image


The bell curve happens whatever you do or don't do. The only difference is how many people will get infected and will die during the wave.
Brazil is paying the price of its lack of mitigation measures with its relatively large death toll. They have reached per capita US numbers, but the overall trend in Brazil is still not showing any signs of decrease.

It was somewhat expected that Brazil, along with some other populated developing nations, would reach herd immunity relatively quickly.
There is still debate on whether this can happen or not, and at what level of infection. NY followed a similar curve which seemed to vanish fairly quickly after a certain time. The problem is that the large amount of undiagnosed cases makes it hard to know the actual inroad the virus makes in a community.
 
PPVRA
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q3 2020

Thu Aug 27, 2020 6:12 pm

MaverickM11 wrote:
KFTG wrote:
Scientists miffed at apparent sharp drop in SARS-CoV-2 cases in Brazil despite no lockdown, herd immunity seemingly taking hold without a vaccine
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/th ... story.html

This bell curve is looking more and more familiar...
Image

For the USA to reach the same level of 'herd immunity', if that is indeed what is occurring in Manaus, 600,000 Americans would have to die, three times the current toll.


Manaus has a weak healthcare system with low resources. Hospital capacity was overwhelmed when their cases spiked.

That, combined with the advances in treatment AND better social distancing afforded by higher levels of wealth, there’s no reason to believe the USA would take as hard a hit as Manaus.

Manaus got to herd immunity too fast, right at the beginning of the pandemic. The US (and Europe) have the ability and tools to slow the spread more effectively and minimize harm. Sweden has shown this despite the initial struggle with their own learning curve.
Last edited by PPVRA on Thu Aug 27, 2020 6:17 pm, edited 2 times in total.
 
PPVRA
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q3 2020

Thu Aug 27, 2020 6:13 pm

Dieuwer wrote:
Don't forget that a large portion of the Brazilian population is enlisted in the AstraZeneca vaccine trial.


It’s only a few thousand people involved. And most are probably around the São Paulo-Rio area.
 
PPVRA
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q3 2020

Thu Aug 27, 2020 6:15 pm

Francoflier wrote:
KFTG wrote:
Scientists miffed at apparent sharp drop in SARS-CoV-2 cases in Brazil despite no lockdown, herd immunity seemingly taking hold without a vaccine
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/th ... story.html

This bell curve is looking more and more familiar...
Image


The bell curve happens whatever you do or don't do. The only difference is how many people will get infected and will die during the wave.
Brazil is paying the price of its lack of mitigation measures with its relatively large death toll. They have reached per capita US numbers, but the overall trend in Brazil is still not showing any signs of decrease.

It was somewhat expected that Brazil, along with some other populated developing nations, would reach herd immunity relatively quickly.
There is still debate on whether this can happen or not, and at what level of infection. NY followed a similar curve which seemed to vanish fairly quickly after a certain time. The problem is that the large amount of undiagnosed cases makes it hard to know the actual inroad the virus makes in a community.


Brazil's Coronavirus Spread on 'Stable or Downwards' Trend, WHO Says

https://www.nytimes.com/reuters/2020/08 ... razil.html
 
94717
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q3 2020

Fri Aug 28, 2020 1:31 pm

It seems that if 15-20% of the population gets sick the corona go down in numbers pretty soon...

This seems to be the case in country after country.
 
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Francoflier
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q3 2020

Fri Aug 28, 2020 3:56 pm

olle wrote:
It seems that if 15-20% of the population gets sick the corona go down in numbers pretty soon...

This seems to be the case in country after country.


There certainly seems to be something like this happening.
The hypothesis that exposure to other coronaviruses seems to have an effect on immunity to this one seems to be strengthening as well.

France is currently the first country having been exposed to a large degree and undergoing a second wave of infections.
So far, the number of death and severe cases is still very low however. It will increase for sure, but it will be interesting to see by how much, especially compared to the first wave.
 
flyguy89
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q3 2020

Fri Aug 28, 2020 4:40 pm

Francoflier wrote:
olle wrote:
It seems that if 15-20% of the population gets sick the corona go down in numbers pretty soon...

This seems to be the case in country after country.


There certainly seems to be something like this happening.
The hypothesis that exposure to other coronaviruses seems to have an effect on immunity to this one seems to be strengthening as well.

I'm glad other people are watching this as well. Assuming the CDC's estimation of a 10-to-1 actual cases to confirmed cases ratio is correct and that 20-30% of the population does indeed already have some type of cross-immunity with COVID, I've been eyeing what the trend lines look once states reach a ~30% infection rate where (if the latter were true) herd immunity would theoretically kick in. Thus far Arizona and Florida have both hit that mark. Obviously more will follow once the scientists look at the data more, but interesting to watch nonetheless.
 
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casinterest
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q3 2020

Fri Aug 28, 2020 5:19 pm

flyguy89 wrote:
Francoflier wrote:
olle wrote:
It seems that if 15-20% of the population gets sick the corona go down in numbers pretty soon...

This seems to be the case in country after country.


There certainly seems to be something like this happening.
The hypothesis that exposure to other coronaviruses seems to have an effect on immunity to this one seems to be strengthening as well.

I'm glad other people are watching this as well. Assuming the CDC's estimation of a 10-to-1 actual cases to confirmed cases ratio is correct and that 20-30% of the population does indeed already have some type of cross-immunity with COVID, I've been eyeing what the trend lines look once states reach a ~30% infection rate where (if the latter were true) herd immunity would theoretically kick in. Thus far Arizona and Florida have both hit that mark. Obviously more will follow once the scientists look at the data more, but interesting to watch nonetheless.



It's basically the idiots that all flouted the laws. Right now everyone is bunkered down.
 
flyguy89
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q3 2020

Fri Aug 28, 2020 5:39 pm

casinterest wrote:
flyguy89 wrote:
Francoflier wrote:

There certainly seems to be something like this happening.
The hypothesis that exposure to other coronaviruses seems to have an effect on immunity to this one seems to be strengthening as well.

I'm glad other people are watching this as well. Assuming the CDC's estimation of a 10-to-1 actual cases to confirmed cases ratio is correct and that 20-30% of the population does indeed already have some type of cross-immunity with COVID, I've been eyeing what the trend lines look once states reach a ~30% infection rate where (if the latter were true) herd immunity would theoretically kick in. Thus far Arizona and Florida have both hit that mark. Obviously more will follow once the scientists look at the data more, but interesting to watch nonetheless.



It's basically the idiots that all flouted the laws. Right now everyone is bunkered down.

Maybe. We'll l likely find out in short order.
 
StarAC17
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q3 2020

Fri Aug 28, 2020 7:15 pm

olle wrote:
KFTG wrote:
Newark727 wrote:

So in that case, the difference between Sweden and the USA isn't mask policies at all - it's being able to show some basic civic responsibility by making a small number of really quite trivial changes to one's daily routine. Which I'm sure the people going on about the "COVID-19 industrial complex" are fully capable of doing.

Meanwhile in Sweden...

Image
Image
Image
Image


There is problems in whole scandinavia with people not respecting distance;

https://www.berlingske.dk/samfund/to-pa ... -noerrebro

This video is in Copenhagen. Similar stories comes from Oslo.

It is complicated to keep young adults to keep distance. This also show in statistics with young adult being most common to get sick right now.


Every one of those photos are potentially misleading.

You cannot accurately view how far people are actually apart using a ground level photo. If you had an overhead shot from say a drone you would get a much more accurate representation of how far apart people actually are.

Speaking of young people I would say most of us are listening and these photo are really nothing of concern as they are outside and minimal spread has come from outdoor activities. If this was an indoor gathering at a bar or mass outdoor gathering like a music festival I would agree but its just people hanging out.

Furthermore I think it is becoming clearer every day that mass lockdowns only really can work to ensure hospital capacity doesn't get overrun. As a method of eradication once the lock-down is lifted you will see a case spike as the virus has at least a low level penetration basically anywhere on the globe now.

olle wrote:
It seems that if 15-20% of the population gets sick the corona go down in numbers pretty soon...

This seems to be the case in country after country.


This could be why.

https://theconversation.com/coronavirus ... vid-144295

It seems if you have had recent exposure to one of the endemic corona-viruses that cause colds, T-cells that helped fight those seem to recognize Covid19. This has the potential to vastly decrease the severity of illness in those that have been exposed to a coronavirus recently or SARS or MERS. I have also read that if you had recently got an MMR booster than can help you too.
 
MaverickM11
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q3 2020

Fri Aug 28, 2020 10:04 pm

Is the third or fourth nonsense cure the admin has tried to push? I've lost track.

FDA Reportedly Sacks Top PR Officials After Plasma Data Controversy

"Trump and Hahn were both criticized this week for overhyping convalescent plasma treatments and for presenting data from a Mayo Clinic study on its effect on coronavirus mortality (that has not been peer reviewed) in a misleading way that indicated the treatment is more effective than the results show, according to CNN."


https://www.forbes.com/sites/carlieport ... 78d04bb861
 
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Francoflier
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q3 2020

Sat Aug 29, 2020 2:01 pm

MaverickM11 wrote:
Is the third or fourth nonsense cure the admin has tried to push? I've lost track.

FDA Reportedly Sacks Top PR Officials After Plasma Data Controversy

"Trump and Hahn were both criticized this week for overhyping convalescent plasma treatments and for presenting data from a Mayo Clinic study on its effect on coronavirus mortality (that has not been peer reviewed) in a misleading way that indicated the treatment is more effective than the results show, according to CNN."


https://www.forbes.com/sites/carlieport ... 78d04bb861


How is it a "nonense cure'?

Convalescent blood plasma transfusions have been studied since the beginning of the pandemic and have shown tangible positive results so far. The current administration has once again overhyped its efficacy, but it does not mean that it is not showing results.

The problem is that following the standard scientific and administrative procedure to ensure the effectiveness and safety of any treatment takes years. This is why the FDA cannot endorse this or really any other treatment yet. It doesn't change the fact that many nations around the World are requesting convalescent patients give their blood as promising trials have not only happened in the US, far from it.

The issue with this pandemic and the accepted scientific process to research, test and approve treatments is usually much longer than the pandemic will last. There is little use in taking 5 years to approve a new medicine or procedure if by then the virus has gone away or we have effectively reached herd immunity and has done most of the damage it was going to do.
 
aircatalonia
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q3 2020

Sat Aug 29, 2020 3:29 pm

Correct me if I'm wrong, but if immunity disappears overtime wouldn't it make more sense to let the healthy part of the population develop immunity as fast as possible?

If we apply protective measures to young and old equally we delay the point of herd immunity and we expose those who are at risk for a longer period of time, right?
 
MaverickM11
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q3 2020

Sat Aug 29, 2020 3:29 pm

Francoflier wrote:
MaverickM11 wrote:
Is the third or fourth nonsense cure the admin has tried to push? I've lost track.

FDA Reportedly Sacks Top PR Officials After Plasma Data Controversy

"Trump and Hahn were both criticized this week for overhyping convalescent plasma treatments and for presenting data from a Mayo Clinic study on its effect on coronavirus mortality (that has not been peer reviewed) in a misleading way that indicated the treatment is more effective than the results show, according to CNN."


https://www.forbes.com/sites/carlieport ... 78d04bb861


How is it a "nonense cure'?

Convalescent blood plasma transfusions have been studied since the beginning of the pandemic and have shown tangible positive results so far. The current administration has once again overhyped its efficacy, but it does not mean that it is not showing results.

The problem is that following the standard scientific and administrative procedure to ensure the effectiveness and safety of any treatment takes years. This is why the FDA cannot endorse this or really any other treatment yet. It doesn't change the fact that many nations around the World are requesting convalescent patients give their blood as promising trials have not only happened in the US, far from it.

The issue with this pandemic and the accepted scientific process to research, test and approve treatments is usually much longer than the pandemic will last. There is little use in taking 5 years to approve a new medicine or procedure if by then the virus has gone away or we have effectively reached herd immunity and has done most of the damage it was going to do.

Fair point. Nonsense cure is the wrong phrase--overhyped is correct.
 
art
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q3 2020

Sun Aug 30, 2020 12:28 am

KFTG wrote:
You are not interested in "coherent" data.
Show me a PEER REVIEWED STUDY CONDUCTED DURING COVID-19 PANDEMIC THAT PROVES MASK WEARING PREVENTS THE SPREAD OF THIS SPECIFIC VIRUS.
Not "might", or "may", or "suggests".


You want something based on observation rather than opinion?

We did a systematic review of 172 observational studies in health-care and non-health-care settings across 16 countries and six continents; 44 comparative studies were included in a meta-analysis, including 25 697 patients with COVID-19, SARS, or MERS. Our findings are, to the best of our knowledge, the first to rapidly synthesise all direct information on COVID-19 and, therefore, provide the best available evidence to inform optimum use of three common and simple interventions to help reduce the rate of infection and inform non-pharmaceutical interventions, including pandemic mitigation in non-health-care settings. Physical distancing of 1 m or more was associated with a much lower risk of infection, as was use of face masks (including N95 respirators or similar and surgical or similar masks [eg, 12–16-layer cotton or gauze masks]) and eye protection (eg, goggles or face shields). Added benefits are likely with even larger physical distances (eg, 2 m or more based on modelling) and might be present with N95 or similar respirators versus medical masks or similar.


https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanc ... 40-6736(20)31142-9/fulltext

NB ' Physical distancing of 1 m or more was associated with a much lower risk of infection, as was use of face masks

Can you cite any evidence-based source that shows the contrary to be the case?
 
Waterbomber2
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q3 2020

Sun Aug 30, 2020 1:08 am

Brazil and U.S. numbers going down have probably more to do with political manipulation of the data rather than a slowing epidemic.
Brazil and the US have done nothing spectacular that would explain a reduction of pace of new cases.
If anything, cases should be accelerating.

The U.S. is probably seeing more than 100.000 infections per day at this stage.
With schools reopening, the virus will transmit from household to household without limitations.

Herd immunity doesn't work with something that can reignite 3 months after being defeated.

Eradication though a well-planned shutdown is the only surefire solution at this stage.
 
flyguy89
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q3 2020

Sun Aug 30, 2020 2:57 am

Waterbomber2 wrote:
Brazil and U.S. numbers going down have probably more to do with political manipulation of the data rather than a slowing epidemic.
Brazil and the US have done nothing spectacular that would explain a reduction of pace of new cases.
If anything, cases should be accelerating.

The U.S. is probably seeing more than 100.000 infections per day at this stage.
With schools reopening, the virus will transmit from household to household without limitations.

Herd immunity doesn't work with something that can reignite 3 months after being defeated.

Eradication though a well-planned shutdown is the only surefire solution at this stage.

New case reports can certainly be manipulated via the amount of testing that is or isn't conducted, but hospitalizations don't lie, and they've been declining in nearly all the former hot spots (California, Texas, Florida, Nevada). Well-planned shutdowns don't work either as we're seeing in Europe and New Zealand. There is no eradicating this unfortunately, it's here to stay. Re-infection certainly is a possibility, but not much is known about it at this point, but we do know from other Coronaviruses that the severity subsequent infections are usually attenuated to the point that it's not usually a threat.
 
Toenga
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q3 2020

Sun Aug 30, 2020 4:15 am

flyguy89 wrote:
New case reports can certainly be manipulated via the amount of testing that is or isn't conducted, but hospitalizations don't lie, and they've been declining in nearly all the former hot spots (California, Texas, Florida, Nevada). Well-planned shutdowns don't work either as we're seeing in Europe and New Zealand. There is no eradicating this unfortunately, it's here to stay. Re-infection certainly is a possibility, but not much is known about it at this point, but we do know from other Coronaviruses that the severity subsequent infections are usually attenuated to the point that it's not usually a threat.

I am afraid you have been listening too much to Trump on the New Zealand situation.
Current NZ covid deaths remain at 22 even after our current outbreak, yes 22 in 5million. Our last covid death occurred over 3 months ago.
After 102 days of no cases other then the approximately 10 per week being intercepted in managed isolation NZ detected 4 cases in Auckland, mid August, one of whom had been symptomatic for a fortnight and had unfortunately a chain of infection was well developed. A few days later a worker at a quarantine facility also tested positive. On finding that first case our Government put Auckland into level 3 of a 4 stage control system, and the rest of the country into level 2 all up from the previous level 1 all within 24 hours. Level 1 was no controls whatsoever except at the border. Now 19 days later tonight Auckland emerges from local level 3 lockdown and joins the rest of the country in level 2 which only retains some social distancing measures, maximum gathering size restrictions and now masks on public transport. All shops, restaurants bars and schools are free to open, but with some social distancing and contact tracing measures.
We are free to leave New Zealand, but getting back in is problematic and subject to delay due the capacity restraints of approximately 3000 people per week of quarantine facilities and related airline passenger restrictions. Also if we choose to go now, we have to pay towards our quarantine costs on return.
In NZ we currently have 11 covid patients in hospital, 3 of them in ICU and only 137 active cases in the whole country. This includes those intercepted in our border facilities. Today 2 new cases only were reported.
On current trends and control measures it will though take a while to get back to no active cases, and we may well have another death or two. We are now much better prepared and resourced then we were for the initial outbreak.
Currently we are in a similar position, or slightly worse position to all the Australian states bar Victoria, and Victoria's current lockdown seems to be now producing results.
So the evidence remains that well planned and executed control strategies including lockdowns do in fact work and are very effective in reducing both the death rates and the duration of severe covid disruption, and economic damage.
 
Toenga
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q3 2020

Sun Aug 30, 2020 4:26 am

An interesting statistical oddity of the New Zealand situation is that the death rate this year is about 1500 people less for the same period last year. Suicides were down not up, road deaths down, but only a little, as empty roads upped speeds but didn't soften the corners.
So no unaccounted covid deaths turning up in excess death figures here.
 
flyguy89
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q3 2020

Sun Aug 30, 2020 4:47 am

Toenga wrote:
flyguy89 wrote:
New case reports can certainly be manipulated via the amount of testing that is or isn't conducted, but hospitalizations don't lie, and they've been declining in nearly all the former hot spots (California, Texas, Florida, Nevada). Well-planned shutdowns don't work either as we're seeing in Europe and New Zealand. There is no eradicating this unfortunately, it's here to stay. Re-infection certainly is a possibility, but not much is known about it at this point, but we do know from other Coronaviruses that the severity subsequent infections are usually attenuated to the point that it's not usually a threat.

I am afraid you have been listening too much to Trump on the New Zealand situation.
Current NZ covid deaths remain at 22 even after our current outbreak, yes 22 in 5million. Our last covid death occurred over 3 months ago.

The point was not in reference to or to exaggerate the severity of the outbreak there, but the fact that even in an isolated location with strict border and quarantine
controls that had "eradicated" the virus, it still resurfaced.

Toenga wrote:
So the evidence remains that well planned and executed control strategies including lockdowns do in fact work and are very effective in reducing both the death rates and the duration of severe covid disruption, and economic damage.

I'd say that really remains to be seen, at least in New Zealand's case. Common sense measures to mitigate and slow the spread, of course. But if you're going to have to keep playing whack-a-mole continually over the next year locking down various parts of the country while having to isolate from the rest of the world, the overall toll may be problematic. We shall see, I genuinely hope for the best there though.
 
StarAC17
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q3 2020

Sun Aug 30, 2020 5:07 am

aircatalonia wrote:
Correct me if I'm wrong, but if immunity disappears overtime wouldn't it make more sense to let the healthy part of the population develop immunity as fast as possible?

If we apply protective measures to young and old equally we delay the point of herd immunity and we expose those who are at risk for a longer period of time, right?


This is what frustrates so many people about how Covid19 has been handled by a lot of governments and gives fodder to people who believe in the so called Plandemic (all conspiracies have a degree of truth in them, I could list them all but that is for another discussion). In March the whole idea of the shutdowns were to ensure that hospital capacity wasn't overrun. It was identified then that for most people that Covid19 was manageable if you were generally healthy and yes some healthy people will have a bad time but that is the exception and not the rule. We saw what Italy, Spain, the UK and New York went through and most of the developed world learned the lesson after this and this has been a good thing.

However the goalposts have been moved in many countries to pursue what exactly? Eradication is probably not possible at this point and minimizing spread is fine if a vaccine is your endgame as long as you have public support. Mass lockdowns over some spikes in cases will try the public's patience very quickly.

There have been constant attacks against young people by politicians, health professionals and the media because we are the ones out in society and are getting it. Some yes are being stupid but we are the ones most likely to survive without serious complications and help achieve some degree of herd immunity. Outside of a vaccine or proven treatment this makes sense or this very well be a 5 to 10 year pandemic when most last 2 at the most. All hopes on a vaccine as the only end by public health officials also feeds fuel to the fire of the Plandemic people and the Anti-Vaxxers. We have lived with way worse viruses than Covid19 and managed to live with those viruses.

One thing about immunity, there is re-infection of the virus in many cases, however does the disease present in the same person more than once? You can be reinfected with the same flu strain also but are you actually going to get seriously sick again or is it going to be mild or not even noticeable. Not all immunity is sterilizing like the Measles or Chicken Pox.

Regarding Coronavirus re-infection, it seems that someone can be reinfected but has a very mild illness or is asymptomatic. Sterilizing immunity might be short lived but remember if there is no natural immunity then a vaccine is doubtful. From the trials is seems that many of them produce both antibody and T-cell responses which is good news.

This doctor has made the most sense of all of the experts I have heard.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Lze-rMYLf2E
 
StarAC17
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q3 2020

Sun Aug 30, 2020 5:27 am

Waterbomber2 wrote:
Brazil and U.S. numbers going down have probably more to do with political manipulation of the data rather than a slowing epidemic.
Brazil and the US have done nothing spectacular that would explain a reduction of pace of new cases.
If anything, cases should be accelerating.

The U.S. is probably seeing more than 100.000 infections per day at this stage.
With schools reopening, the virus will transmit from household to household without limitations.

Herd immunity doesn't work with something that can reignite 3 months after being defeated.

Eradication though a well-planned shutdown is the only surefire solution at this stage.


If you are right then this is an airborne HIV that will take out half of humanity or more but that is not seated in any observable reality thankfully.

Covid19 probably provides 3 months of sterilizing immunity and some degree of cell mediated immunity for years or decades. This means yes you can get reinfected but are likely protected from the worst. Have you ever had a 24 hour bug? You feel like crap for a day and wake up the next day feeling fine. This is very likely another exposure to an infection you have already had and you fight it off in a day.

If you think about this rationally do you know how much energy the human immune system and thus body would use to maintain a library of antibodies for every infection it encounters (most adults get 4 colds a year), a lot of it. Evolution has taught it to remember pathogens and can react a lot faster when the pathogen is encountered again but it still can take hold in the body in the future. It will just be inconvenient and not dangerous.

Regarding eradication, how do you expect to pull that off with a virus as contagious as this is which an estimated natural R0 of 2 to 4 with an long incubation time and a asymptomatic rate of 35% at a minimum? How long do we lock down for? If we said 2 months and it fails (which it probably will) then how do you deal with it afterwards? You learn to live with it and we have been terrorized by much worse viruses and life continues to go on. Furthermore no prominent epidemiologist or infectious disease expert has suggested this in any capacity. They are trying to do their best to minimize deaths but even Dr. Fauci has never said that eradication is on the table.
 
Toenga
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q3 2020

Sun Aug 30, 2020 5:38 am

flyguy89 wrote:
Toenga wrote:
flyguy89 wrote:
New case reports can certainly be manipulated via the amount of testing that is or isn't conducted, but hospitalizations don't lie, and they've been declining in nearly all the former hot spots (California, Texas, Florida, Nevada). Well-planned shutdowns don't work either as we're seeing in Europe and New Zealand. There is no eradicating this unfortunately, it's here to stay. Re-infection certainly is a possibility, but not much is known about it at this point, but we do know from other Coronaviruses that the severity subsequent infections are usually attenuated to the point that it's not usually a threat.

I am afraid you have been listening too much to Trump on the New Zealand situation.
Current NZ covid deaths remain at 22 even after our current outbreak, yes 22 in 5million. Our last covid death occurred over 3 months ago.

The point was not in reference to or to exaggerate the severity of the outbreak there, but the fact that even in an isolated location with strict border and quarantine
controls that had "eradicated" the virus, it still resurfaced.

Toenga wrote:
So the evidence remains that well planned and executed control strategies including lockdowns do in fact work and are very effective in reducing both the death rates and the duration of severe covid disruption, and economic damage.

I'd say that really remains to be seen, at least in New Zealand's case. Common sense measures to mitigate and slow the spread, of course. But if you're going to have to keep playing whack-a-mole continually over the next year locking down various parts of the country while having to isolate from the rest of the world, the overall toll may be problematic. We shall see, I genuinely hope for the best there though.


Having totally closed borders is simply not viable, imports and exports of goods are needed and crew are required.
It is not acceptable to deny your own citizens the right of return, and foolhardy to suffer the consequences of totally locking out essential expertise.
A secure border quarantine system will catch the vast majority of border incursions, but it must be backed up maintaining substantial , track, trace, test, and quarantine capabilities, because incursions remain almost inevitable. Future lockdowns as well should never though be ruled out, they are a very effective tool of last resort if an out break threatens to overwhelm, the always finite capacity of effective track, trace, test and quarantine capabilities.
The particular characteristic of delayed detection in vulnerable communities justified the deployment of this tool in both the Auckland and Melbourne outbreaks whereas to date both Sydney and Brisbane seem to be coping with just track, trace, test and isolate measures.
All of the forgoing could be described as "whack a mole" The alternative of a plague of mole caused deaths and damage does not seem to be working out well elsewhere. There are no great options in this plague, just some are a lot worse then others, and doing nothing seems to be the worst of the lot.
 
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DocLightning
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q3 2020

Sun Aug 30, 2020 4:50 pm

KFTG wrote:
Moderna vaccine appears to be effective
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/08/26/moderna ... ients.html


Woah woah woah, let's hang on for a second.

The Moderna vaccine candidate appears to trigger an antibody response in the elderly. That is promising, given that an antibody response to this vaccine protected macaques against SARS-CoV-2 in direct challenge trials, but it does not prove that it is effective.

The only way to prove efficacy is to start giving both the vaccine candidate and a placebo to people and then tracking how many people who got the vaccine get COVID-19 vs. how many people who got placebo got COVID-19. That is going to take some time.

StarAC17 wrote:
One thing about immunity, there is re-infection of the virus in many cases, however does the disease present in the same person more than once? You can be reinfected with the same flu strain also but are you actually going to get seriously sick again or is it going to be mild or not even noticeable. Not all immunity is sterilizing like the Measles or Chicken Pox.

Regarding Coronavirus re-infection, it seems that someone can be reinfected but has a very mild illness or is asymptomatic. Sterilizing immunity might be short lived but remember if there is no natural immunity then a vaccine is doubtful. From the trials is seems that many of them produce both antibody and T-cell responses which is good news.


You get it. When people do get reinfected, they usually are found on an incidental screen (like the 33yo gentleman in Hong Kong who was screened on return from travel). They usually get minimal to no symptoms. There was, however, the once case of a young man (25) in Reno getting it twice with two different genetic variants. The second time, he got much more sick. He was never tested for antibodies after the first illness, but about two weeks into the second, he tested positive for both IgG and IgM. I think my best interpretation, given that his initial infection had been over 40 days prior, is that he didn't make antibodies the first time around. If he had, he would probably not have tested positive for IgM, which is usually only present for the first month or so after exposure to a new infectious agent.

It happens. Some people, particularly young people, can clear a viral infection entirely by using innate immune mechanisms that don't involve a memory response. This is common in norovirus, in which 30% of people don't get a memory response. Even for chickenpox, very rare cases of people getting the disease twice have been reported.

The other possibility is that this was a rare case of antibody-dependent enhancement. That would be more worrisome, but it still appears rare, and even if it was, ADE only occurs once per virus.

Waterbomber2 wrote:
Herd immunity doesn't work with something that can reignite 3 months after being defeated.


Sure it can. Not all immunity need be sterilizing. When the most recent "common cold" coronavirus, HCoV-OC43 first appeared in 1890 it caused a global pandemic. They thought it was flu at the time but it appears it was something entirely different. HCoV-OC43 still circulates today. You've had it. I've had it. We've all had it. We got it when we were younger than ten, because kids are good at fighting respiratory coronaviruses. We got memory immunity, but not life-long sterilizing immunity. So we keep getting reinfected through our lives, but those reinfections are mild (common cold or no symptoms at all). Occasionally, however, those common cold coronaviruses can make people really sick.

If there were no vaccines, this virus would work its way through the population and settle into being an endemic common cold coronavirus.

Remember, there could be a worldwide pandemic of a virus that makes your eye twitch. But because it doesn't make people very sick, we'd never define it as a "pandemic." There is some context here. There are ongoing "pandemics" of common cold viruses, but because they rarely cause severe disease, we don't shut down society over them.
 
94717
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q3 2020

Sun Aug 30, 2020 8:50 pm

Now Sweden has been back from holidays for 2 weeks...

Should not the numbers go up?

https://ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?ar ... lues=cases
 
StarAC17
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q3 2020

Mon Aug 31, 2020 3:54 pm

KFTG wrote:
Moderna vaccine appears to be effective
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/08/26/moderna ... ients.html


Woah woah woah, let's hang on for a second.

The Moderna vaccine candidate appears to trigger an antibody response in the elderly. That is promising, given that an antibody response to this vaccine protected macaques against SARS-CoV-2 in direct challenge trials, but it does not prove that it is effective.

The only way to prove efficacy is to start giving both the vaccine candidate and a placebo to people and then tracking how many people who got the vaccine get COVID-19 vs. how many people who got placebo got COVID-19. That is going to take some time.


That would be the standard for a phase 3 trial. The covid restrictions kind of slow these down because someone who had the vaccine would not be really in normal interaction. Even if restrictions were lifted for them they wouldn't be for the larger public..

Maybe you can provide some insight Doc. How effective would challenge triasl actually work to fast track stage 3 and to get the vaccine approved faster.

https://www.vox.com/videos/2020/8/12/21 ... s-covid-19
 
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Tugger
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q3 2020

Fri Sep 04, 2020 5:00 pm

Erebus wrote:
art wrote:
Dutchy wrote:
Russia is to start mass production of the first approved - by Russia - vaccine. The problem of course with this vaccine is that it is not properly tested. Phase 1 trials are complete, but not the larger ones. And yet they start mass production and want to begin vaccination of Russians. it hasn't been determined what side effects there are or that the vaccine even properly works at all.

So in essence, the Russian government will experiment on its citizens.

Link in Dutch


Sure, not tested sufficiently to show how safe it is or how well it protects against infection. In the current unprecedented circumstances (no other new disease has resulted in the world shutting down), taking unprecedented risks can be justified, can't it?

Mind you, I think people offered the vaccine should be made aware that is not proven and that it is risky being vaccinated with it. No idea if that info will be passed onto potential recipients of the vaccine in Russia.


I slightly wonder if they do have sufficient data to deem it safe to use on the general population but they cannot share the details because of some kind of dark nature. Like, what if it was tested on unwilling people, prisoners etc. We know from history that powerful entities of the world have carried out such underground experiments.

Good news so far regarding the Russian vaccine:
https://www.cnn.com/2020/09/04/health/r ... index.html
In the Phase 1 and 2 studies of the vaccine, which is named Sputnik V, all 76 study participants developed antibodies to the virus that causes Covid-19, according to Friday's report in The Lancet.
The levels of neutralizing antibody response were similar to the immune response that people had after naturally recovering from Covid-19, according to the study.

In the study, half of the participants developed fevers and 42% developed headaches. In addition, about 28% experienced weakness and 24% had joint pain.
The article did not say how long these side effects lasted but said "most adverse events were mild."


Also should indicate the ability of other vaccines also being worked on to be safe... "effective" is of course the real question.

Tugg
 
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Dutchy
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q3 2020

Fri Sep 04, 2020 5:17 pm

Tugger wrote:
In the Phase 1 and 2 studies of the vaccine, which is named Sputnik V, all 76 study participants developed antibodies to the virus that causes Covid-19, according to Friday's report in The Lancet.
The levels of neutralizing antibody response were similar to the immune response that people had after naturally recovering from Covid-19, according to the study.

In the study, half of the participants developed fevers and 42% developed headaches. In addition, about 28% experienced weakness and 24% had joint pain.
The article did not say how long these side effects lasted but said "most adverse events were mild."


Also should indicate the ability of other vaccines also being worked on to be safe... "effective" is of course the real question.

Tugg


Good news that it seems to be working.
Two questions actually: effectiveness and side effects. That sounds like a lot of side effects, more than 50% of the people receiving it. I don't know if that would be exceptable leavel for general use.
 
lowwkjax
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q3 2020

Sat Sep 05, 2020 12:59 am

Dutchy wrote:
Tugger wrote:
In the Phase 1 and 2 studies of the vaccine, which is named Sputnik V, all 76 study participants developed antibodies to the virus that causes Covid-19, according to Friday's report in The Lancet.
The levels of neutralizing antibody response were similar to the immune response that people had after naturally recovering from Covid-19, according to the study.

In the study, half of the participants developed fevers and 42% developed headaches. In addition, about 28% experienced weakness and 24% had joint pain.
The article did not say how long these side effects lasted but said "most adverse events were mild."


Also should indicate the ability of other vaccines also being worked on to be safe... "effective" is of course the real question.

Tugg


Good news that it seems to be working.
Two questions actually: effectiveness and side effects. That sounds like a lot of side effects, more than 50% of the people receiving it. I don't know if that would be exceptable leavel for general use.


If the price for ending this pandemic is a light fever and/or headache for a day or two, I would call this more than just acceptable.
 
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Dutchy
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q3 2020

Sat Sep 05, 2020 7:24 am

lowwkjax wrote:
Dutchy wrote:
Tugger wrote:

Also should indicate the ability of other vaccines also being worked on to be safe... "effective" is of course the real question.

Tugg


Good news that it seems to be working.
Two questions actually: effectiveness and side effects. That sounds like a lot of side effects, more than 50% of the people receiving it. I don't know if that would be exceptable leavel for general use.


If the price for ending this pandemic is a light fever and/or headache for a day or two, I would call this more than just acceptable.


I cannot judge it, don't have the data, and certainly not the expertise. We have a well-established procedure to validate the effectiveness and side effects of medicines. The Russians and Chinese are sidestepping this. There are inherent risks to do this for obvious reasons. So a headache for a day or two might be acceptable, but if a certain percentage dies of complications, would it than still be acceptable?
 
lowwkjax
Posts: 55
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q3 2020

Sat Sep 05, 2020 8:41 am

Dutchy wrote:
lowwkjax wrote:
Dutchy wrote:

Good news that it seems to be working.
Two questions actually: effectiveness and side effects. That sounds like a lot of side effects, more than 50% of the people receiving it. I don't know if that would be exceptable leavel for general use.


If the price for ending this pandemic is a light fever and/or headache for a day or two, I would call this more than just acceptable.


I cannot judge it, don't have the data, and certainly not the expertise. We have a well-established procedure to validate the effectiveness and side effects of medicines. The Russians and Chinese are sidestepping this. There are inherent risks to do this for obvious reasons. So a headache for a day or two might be acceptable, but if a certain percentage dies of complications, would it than still be acceptable?


Let’s say 100,000 die of the virus versus 7,000 die of side effects of the vaccine. That way you still save 93,000 lives but yes, you cause 7,000 deaths. Whether that would be acceptable is hard to tell, but I would say no simply because we can’t say “the number would be 7,000”. But if we only speak of a little headache and a light fever, then yes, acceptable. But as you say, we don’t have the data, so we can only half guess here.
 
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Dutchy
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q3 2020

Sat Sep 05, 2020 9:05 am

lowwkjax wrote:
Let’s say 100,000 die of the virus versus 7,000 die of side effects of the vaccine. That way you still save 93,000 lives but yes, you cause 7,000 deaths. Whether that would be acceptable is hard to tell, but I would say no simply because we can’t say “the number would be 7,000”. But if we only speak of a little headache and a light fever, then yes, acceptable. But as you say, we don’t have the data, so we can only half guess here.


Exactly and that's why there are these studies and thus the protocol. Only after that, we have the data. In practice, China and Russia are using their population as a test subject and that would not fly in the west but it does in autocratic regimes.
 
art
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q3 2020

Sat Sep 05, 2020 11:34 am

Risks are regularly taken in developing medical treatments, are they not? If a company spends $1 billion this year developing and testing a drug, it does not limit its use to a small group of test subjects, observe the effects for decades then release it to the market when it can demonstrate the absence of unacceptable long term effects.

Given the economic damage being ravaged on the world by this virus, I think it wiser to take larger risks than to take smaller risks in treating/preventing this disease. Apart from anything else, the sooner the strain that this epidemic places on health services is reduced, the fewer people will die from other diseases where their treatment has been delayed or stopped to give extra capacity for treatment of COVID-19.
 
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Francoflier
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q3 2020

Sat Sep 05, 2020 1:20 pm

art wrote:
Risks are regularly taken in developing medical treatments, are they not? If a company spends $1 billion this year developing and testing a drug, it does not limit its use to a small group of test subjects, observe the effects for decades then release it to the market when it can demonstrate the absence of unacceptable long term effects.

Given the economic damage being ravaged on the world by this virus, I think it wiser to take larger risks than to take smaller risks in treating/preventing this disease. Apart from anything else, the sooner the strain that this epidemic places on health services is reduced, the fewer people will die from other diseases where their treatment has been delayed or stopped to give extra capacity for treatment of COVID-19.


The best thing about a vaccine, quite frankly, is that it will calm people down and go a long way towards reducing the utter hysteria surrounding this pandemic which is what is causing all that economic harm.
It will not stop the virus dead in its tracks, will not eliminate it and will not prevent thousands from dying from it. All it needs to do is to bring the harm to below the level where people have an irrational fear of it, whatever that may be...

And, yes, I agree. The mechanisms that dictate medical research are great at ensuring the safety of the final products, but very much not adapted to quickly react to a fast-paced and lare scale event like this one.
 
art
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q3 2020

Sat Sep 05, 2020 2:13 pm

Francoflier wrote:
The best thing about a vaccine, quite frankly, is that it will calm people down and go a long way towards reducing the utter hysteria surrounding this pandemic which is what is causing all that economic harm.
It will not stop the virus dead in its tracks, will not eliminate it and will not prevent thousands from dying from it. All it needs to do is to bring the harm to below the level where people have an irrational fear of it, whatever that may be..


Agreed, even a universally available vaccine will not eliminate this virus. Too many people will refuse to be vaccinated, allowing pools of infection to exist indefinitely. I think that smallpox (la petite variole), for example, would still be around if there had been a large number of anti-vaxxers 50 years ago.

I also agree that exaggerated fear of the disease must be causing economic damage. For example, here in England there are many people who will not send their children to school, making it difficult for some people to return to work.

Fear is also shortening the lives of some people who are too frightened to visit doctors when they have symptoms of diseases (eg some cancers) where delay in treating the disease will result in them not surviving the disease - an outcome they could have avoided.
 
ltbewr
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q3 2020

Sat Sep 05, 2020 2:14 pm

There are huge political and economic pressures to have a vaccine ASAP to the public Russia would love to beat the USA and Europe with a vaccine first, to help with internal politics, make Russia look great and Putin look like a great leader. China's leaders have pressure on them as where Covid-19 originated, to be able to use an early vaccine for domestic politics, make China look great and as a way to extract trade and other concessions or use it to gain access to mineral wealth, consumer product sales in 3rd World countries (as already doing unlike the USA) In the USA, Pres. Trump is running for re-election and is desperate for something he can make a lying claim to have caused a vaccine to be available to win, to cover for his massive failures to deal with Covid-19, deal with the desperate need for people to be able to go back to paying work, schools and have a life again

There are several big areas of problems I see with vaccine(s) in the USA.

One is will it be effective and without bad side effects. Attempts to speed up a vaccine to the public puts up a huge risk that could make things worse. You tame the disease but end up with worse diseases and illness.

Second will be that many, perhaps 30%, won't take it as don't trust our government, our drug companies or scientists

Third will be the likely mess of the distribution of the vaccine. While it is clear that health care workers, first responders will be in a first wave, we know many will cheat, steal, lie, pay off politicians to jump the line to get it. Then will be the battle of who's next persons with co-morbilities, over 60-65, 'essential workers' like in food preparation, farming, ranching, teachers over retail workers and so on. Many parents of school kids will want them vaccinated first before them out of love and to get them back to school safely. The distribution of the vaccines being developed will require expensive and more that current capacity of special freezers and storage facilities, expensive and difficult logistics. Then there be claims of racism and classism, if a blue/Red state, city or rural area, all saying they are being ignored while others get it first. This could be further compounded by the need for 2 or more shots. There could be improperly made and rejected batches, screws ups in distribution, shortages of syringes and PPE that will slow distribution so it might take well into 2021 before enough get the shot

Fourth will with a vaccine out and distributed, many prematurely ditch preventive measure like masks and social distancing, opening up businesses, allow nonrestrictive travel, social activities as if the virus never happened.

Fifth will be the need to assure supplies and distribution of the vaccine to 7 Billion people, most of which live in poor countries. Many rich countries will take care of themselves first and unlikely to financially support vaccination outreach as cheap, greedy and selfish. If the rest of the world doesn't get the vaccine, international travel becomes impossible and no one should accept many millions dead.
 
frmrCapCadet
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q3 2020

Sat Sep 05, 2020 3:19 pm

Earlier licensing of the new vaccines does involve risk, but I don't think someone should say 'huge' risk. As always it is a matter of how much benefit versus how much risk. In this case I think more risk is justified, and in fact is being taken. Several vaccines are ready or near ready for late phase testing.

Who should receive the tests first? There is an odd dynamic here, and it works out best for all involved. First vaccinate those at the most risk on contracting the disease, and this does two things. It protects them from catching the virus, but it also protects all the rest of us from catching the virus from them. Second, the vaccine may involve some risk such that certain demographics should not be vaccinated. I am sure able people are doing the mathematical studies of who should be vaccinated, and in what order. I will follow whatever the guidelines recommend.
 
art
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q3 2020

Sat Sep 05, 2020 3:53 pm

ltbewr wrote:
There are several big areas of problems I see with vaccine(s) in the USA.

One is will it be effective and without bad side effects. Attempts to speed up a vaccine to the public puts up a huge risk that could make things worse. You tame the disease but end up with worse diseases and illness.


In the litigious USA, would pharma companies selling millions of doses of an ineffective vaccine or else a vaccine with side effects be sued for tens of billions?

ltbewr wrote:
Third will be the likely mess of the distribution of the vaccine. While it is clear that health care workers, first responders will be in a first wave, we know many will cheat, steal, lie, pay off politicians to jump the line to get it. Then will be the battle of who's next persons with co-morbilities, over 60-65, 'essential workers' like in food preparation, farming, ranching, teachers over retail workers and so on. Many parents of school kids will want them vaccinated first before them out of love and to get them back to school safely. The distribution of the vaccines being developed will require expensive and more that current capacity of special freezers and storage facilities, expensive and difficult logistics. Then there be claims of racism and classism, if a blue/Red state, city or rural area, all saying they are being ignored while others get it first. This could be further compounded by the need for 2 or more shots. There could be improperly made and rejected batches, screws ups in distribution, shortages of syringes and PPE that will slow distribution so it might take well into 2021 before enough get the shot


It was explained to me that health care in the US is seen as a business. In that case, those who pay most come first, don't they?

ltbewr wrote:
Fifth will be the need to assure supplies and distribution of the vaccine to 7 Billion people, most of which live in poor countries. Many rich countries will take care of themselves first and unlikely to financially support vaccination outreach as cheap, greedy and selfish. If the rest of the world doesn't get the vaccine, international travel becomes impossible and no one should accept many millions dead.


Mmmm... I guess that for some time people from rich countries will be seen as low risk, so allowed into poorer countries while people from poorer countries denied the vaccine by those from richer countries will not be allowed into the richer countries.
 
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Francoflier
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q3 2020

Sat Sep 05, 2020 4:01 pm

frmrCapCadet wrote:
Earlier licensing of the new vaccines does involve risk, but I don't think someone should say 'huge' risk. As always it is a matter of how much benefit versus how much risk. In this case I think more risk is justified, and in fact is being taken. Several vaccines are ready or near ready for late phase testing.

Who should receive the tests first? There is an odd dynamic here, and it works out best for all involved. First vaccinate those at the most risk on contracting the disease, and this does two things. It protects them from catching the virus, but it also protects all the rest of us from catching the virus from them. Second, the vaccine may involve some risk such that certain demographics should not be vaccinated. I am sure able people are doing the mathematical studies of who should be vaccinated, and in what order. I will follow whatever the guidelines recommend.


I mostly agree, but I'll add that vaccination does not prevent anyone from catching the virus.
It does prevent you from developing severe symptoms, and very probably decreases how infectious you are and for how long.

The most at risk should be vaccinated first. Unless it is proven that a global vaccination campaign would allow for a further reduction of mortality or even eradication, and if the vaccines have shown to be effective and safe enough, then maybe push for wider inoculation policies. But that's a lot of ifs.
There's a reason we have never tried to get rid of the common flu, despite it killing dozens of thousands every year.

It's worth remembering for a minute that the vast majority of people are not at great risk from this virus. Until it is shown that the vaccine is completely safe, the risks might be greater than the reward for many.

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Military Aircraft Every type from fighters to helicopters from air forces around the globe

Classic Airliners Props and jets from the good old days

Flight Decks Views from inside the cockpit

Aircraft Cabins Passenger cabin shots showing seat arrangements as well as cargo aircraft interior

Cargo Aircraft Pictures of great freighter aircraft

Government Aircraft Aircraft flying government officials

Helicopters Our large helicopter section. Both military and civil versions

Blimps / Airships Everything from the Goodyear blimp to the Zeppelin

Night Photos Beautiful shots taken while the sun is below the horizon

Accidents Accident, incident and crash related photos

Air to Air Photos taken by airborne photographers of airborne aircraft

Special Paint Schemes Aircraft painted in beautiful and original liveries

Airport Overviews Airport overviews from the air or ground

Tails and Winglets Tail and Winglet closeups with beautiful airline logos