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Scorpio
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q3 2020

Mon Sep 21, 2020 2:37 pm

scbriml wrote:
ltbewr wrote:
The USA is going to reach 200,000 Deaths from Covid-19 this weekend.


Depending on your source, USA deaths are already over 200,000.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

Here's an interesting comparison - new cases and deaths. Compare USA numbers with UK. In the UK we're seeing a clearly significant second spike in cases, but no corresponding jump in deaths (which has stayed remarkably steady, despite a big jump in new cases). One theory is that the majority of new cases are younger people who are far less likely to die after contracting Covid-19. Another theory is that "the weak have already been weeded out", which whilst harsh, might have some truth behind it.

All graphs from http://www.worldometers.info



There are a few reasons why deaths are lower. First is, as has been pointed out, the lag between infection and death. Second is testing: there is FAR more testing being done today compared to the first wave. So, far more of the lighter cases are now found and counted. That explains the lower death rate. A third is that more young people are initially being infected: they're the ones out and about, going to work, going to school etc., while elderly populations are being protected better now than during the first wave. However, we ALWAYS see that in a case like this, the young eventually DO start infecting the elderly. They always do. And as a result, deaths WILL start rising. Count on in.

In Belgium we're seeing the same phenomenon: strong rise in cases, no rise yet in deaths. But in recent days we've started seeing an increase in the number of elderly people being infected.

The idea that 'the weak have been weeded out' doesn't make any sense. It would only be true if during the first wave the entire population had been exposed to the virus. That's not the case: only 5 - 10% of the people probabaly got the virus so far. That also means 5 - 10% of the so-called 'weak', meaning 90 - 95% of these people have not yet been exposed to the virus.
 
olle
Posts: 2343
Joined: Tue Feb 06, 2007 3:38 am

Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q3 2020

Mon Sep 21, 2020 2:52 pm

Scorpio wrote:
scbriml wrote:
ltbewr wrote:
The USA is going to reach 200,000 Deaths from Covid-19 this weekend.


Depending on your source, USA deaths are already over 200,000.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

Here's an interesting comparison - new cases and deaths. Compare USA numbers with UK. In the UK we're seeing a clearly significant second spike in cases, but no corresponding jump in deaths (which has stayed remarkably steady, despite a big jump in new cases). One theory is that the majority of new cases are younger people who are far less likely to die after contracting Covid-19. Another theory is that "the weak have already been weeded out", which whilst harsh, might have some truth behind it.

All graphs from http://www.worldometers.info



There are a few reasons why deaths are lower. First is, as has been pointed out, the lag between infection and death. Second is testing: there is FAR more testing being done today compared to the first wave. So, far more of the lighter cases are now found and counted. That explains the lower death rate. A third is that more young people are initially being infected: they're the ones out and about, going to work, going to school etc., while elderly populations are being protected better now than during the first wave. However, we ALWAYS see that in a case like this, the young eventually DO start infecting the elderly. They always do. And as a result, deaths WILL start rising. Count on in.

In Belgium we're seeing the same phenomenon: strong rise in cases, no rise yet in deaths. But in recent days we've started seeing an increase in the number of elderly people being infected.

The idea that 'the weak have been weeded out' doesn't make any sense. It would only be true if during the first wave the entire population had been exposed to the virus. That's not the case: only 5 - 10% of the people probabaly got the virus so far. That also means 5 - 10% of the so-called 'weak', meaning 90 - 95% of these people have not yet been exposed to the virus.


Sadly true.. Spain and France has an early increase of dead... :-(
 
art
Posts: 3492
Joined: Tue Feb 08, 2005 11:46 am

Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q3 2020

Mon Sep 21, 2020 5:06 pm

Scorpio wrote:
...more young people are initially being infected: they're the ones out and about, going to work, going to school etc., while elderly populations are being protected better now than during the first wave. However, we ALWAYS see that in a case like this, the young eventually DO start infecting the elderly. They always do. And as a result, deaths WILL start rising. Count on in.


I think you will be proved right. Sadly.

In the absence of a cure or a vaccine I do not see how a pattern of the economy stopping/half starting/stopping/half starting/... can be avoided unless nearly all people accept that behavioural changes are required for transmission to be limited to non-critical levels (above which draconian measures are implemented).
 
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c933103
Posts: 4470
Joined: Wed May 18, 2016 7:23 pm

Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q3 2020

Tue Sep 22, 2020 8:45 pm

https://www.cbsnews.com/amp/news/covid- ... -director/

US CDC director: "I might even go so far as to say that this face mask is more guaranteed to protect me against COVID than when I take a COVID vaccine, because it may be 70%. And if I don't get an immune response, the vaccine is not going to protect me. This face mask will."

If only media would spend time to focus on things like these
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olle
Posts: 2343
Joined: Tue Feb 06, 2007 3:38 am

Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q3 2020

Mon Sep 28, 2020 1:49 pm

One region in Sweden has started to understand and investigate what people died of during the spring;



Region Sörmland has released the following journal review:

During 17/3 - 27/8, 252 people with diagnosed covid-19 infection died in Sörmland. Of these, 86 people (38 percent) died at SÄBO (nursing home) or at home connected to home health care or SSIH. 10 people living at SÄBO died in hospital. Half of the deceased were 87 years or older. Significant or severe fragility was present in 91 percent of the deceased. Covid-19 is considered to be the dominant cause of death in 17 percent. Covid-19 is estimated to be a contributor to 77 percent of the deceased. 6 percent were judged to have a cause of death other than Covid-19 such as cancer, acute myocardial infarction or stroke.


https://www.aftonbladet.se/nyheter/a/3J ... onaviruset
 
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q3 2020

Thu Oct 01, 2020 4:48 pm

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