scbriml wrote:ltbewr wrote:The USA is going to reach 200,000 Deaths from Covid-19 this weekend.
Depending on your source, USA deaths are already over 200,000.
Here's an interesting comparison - new cases and deaths. Compare USA numbers with UK. In the UK we're seeing a clearly significant second spike in cases, but no corresponding jump in deaths (which has stayed remarkably steady, despite a big jump in new cases). One theory is that the majority of new cases are younger people who are far less likely to die after contracting Covid-19. Another theory is that "the weak have already been weeded out", which whilst harsh, might have some truth behind it.
All graphs from http://www.worldometers.info
There are a few reasons why deaths are lower. First is, as has been pointed out, the lag between infection and death. Second is testing: there is FAR more testing being done today compared to the first wave. So, far more of the lighter cases are now found and counted. That explains the lower death rate. A third is that more young people are initially being infected: they're the ones out and about, going to work, going to school etc., while elderly populations are being protected better now than during the first wave. However, we ALWAYS see that in a case like this, the young eventually DO start infecting the elderly. They always do. And as a result, deaths WILL start rising. Count on in.
In Belgium we're seeing the same phenomenon: strong rise in cases, no rise yet in deaths. But in recent days we've started seeing an increase in the number of elderly people being infected.
The idea that 'the weak have been weeded out' doesn't make any sense. It would only be true if during the first wave the entire population had been exposed to the virus. That's not the case: only 5 - 10% of the people probabaly got the virus so far. That also means 5 - 10% of the so-called 'weak', meaning 90 - 95% of these people have not yet been exposed to the virus.