A surprise move from the US.
The US Embassy in Hanoi, Vietnam uploaded a picture of Vietnam's map.
Noticeably, the Paracel and Spratly Islands were included.

Seems like the US tries to confirm that the islands belong to Vietnam but not China.

But how about the Philippines, who claims almost of the Spratly Island and being American's allie???????????????????????????

Antaras wrote:

Seems like the US tries to confirm that the islands belong to Vietnam but not China.

But how about the Philippines, who claims almost of the Spratly Island and being American's allie???????????????????????????

It's called realpolitik. Vietnam has a bigger military and will be more important in helping to contain Chinese expansionism. Also, Duterte's actions make the Philippines not the ally that they once were.

France, Germany, and the UK has joined the party:

https://news.abs-cbn.com/overseas/09/17 ... te-verbale

France, Germany, and the United Kingdom filed a joint note verbale with the United Nations in New York, rejecting China’s sweeping claims over the South China Sea.

In a note verbale dated Sept. 16, the three nations said that “historic rights” over the South China Sea waters “do not comply” with international law and provisions of the 1982 United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS).

They invoked the 2016 arbitral award won by the Philippines against China, which issued the same ruling.

“France, Germany and the United Kingdom also highlight that claims with regard to the exercise of “historic rights” over the South China Sea waters do not comply with international law and UNCLOS provisions and recall that the arbitral award in the Philippines v. China case dating to 12 July 2016 clearly confirms this point,” the joint note verbale stated.

Here we are back to the party.
Chinese Coast Guard is surrounding Vietnamese Oil-shores platforms again:

https://www.facebook.com/daisukybiendon ... 9716584029

Antaras wrote:

A surprise move from the US.
The US Embassy in Hanoi, Vietnam uploaded a picture of Vietnam's map.
Noticeably, the Paracel and Spratly Islands were included.

Seems like the US tries to confirm that the islands belong to Vietnam but not China.

But how about the Philippines, who claims almost of the Spratly Island and being American's allie???????????????????????????

The Philippines has fallen into the Chinese hand. Vietnam on the other hand, have a strong economic reliance and future growth on western market. They are trying to be the mini-China for some time now.
On top of that, China has been pushing on Vietnam's territory for some time now. Not only that, the Chinese Communist Party try to control Vietnam policy using economic embargo for sometime now.

China's biggest problem is the fact that nobody could import and sell much to the closed off Chinese market. Meanwhile The EU and the US have a more relaxed economic policy regarding import compared to China. Which mean that countries are more willing to work for the US and the EU because they get direct line of economic benefits. China's only power is to pumping billions of dollars into investment in foreign country that doesn't actually stimulate their economic growth in the long term. But it doesn't really work as well.

VN just released a new picture that showed the Vietnam Coast Guard and the Vietnam Fisheries Resources Surveillance boats protecting oil drill Hakuryu-5 placed in Unit 06.1 Nam Côn Sơn, the overlap area between Vietnam's EEZ and PRC's 9-dash line.

In the picture, we can see exactly one Chinese CG vessel (orange frame) being surrounded by a thick matrix of Vietnamese CG and FRS vessels, showing that Vietnam tried its best to protect its business in the area.

Reports mentioned that Vietnam has installed many defensive rocket systems on its controlled islands in the Spratly archipelago.
One of those defensive installations is believed as the Israelis EXTRA (EXTended Range Artillery) artillery rocket system, some new toys acquired by Vietnam shortly ago.
Theoretically, the systems' range can cover most Spratly archipelago islands, including objects controlled by China PR, Taiwan RoC, Phillippines, and Malaysia.

Another controversy on the SCS.
Hundreds of Chinese militia fishing vessels were spotted near the Whitson Reef of the Union Bank, Spratly Islands. The area is completely covered by the Philippines' EEZ, that is why this country had some strong responses on the appearance of those Chinese ships.
https://thanhnien.vn/the-gioi/con-bao-n ... 58722.html




More about the area, Whitson reef and the Union Bank is claimed by Vietnam, the Philippines, and both of China countries. However, the area is in the Filipinos EEZ, and Vietnam or Taiwan has nothing to do with the appearance of those fishers as according to the UNCLOS, those vessels are not using the resource from the sea's bottom nor touching the reefs and islands.

Antaras wrote:

Another controversy on the SCS.
Hundreds of Chinese militia fishing vessels were spotted near the Whitson Reef of the Union Bank, Spratly Islands. The area is completely covered by the Philippines' EEZ, that is why this country had some strong responses on the appearance of those Chinese ships.
https://thanhnien.vn/the-gioi/con-bao-n ... 58722.html




More about the area, Whitson reef and the Union Bank is claimed by Vietnam, the Philippines, and both of China countries. However, the area is in the Filipinos EEZ, and Vietnam or Taiwan has nothing to do with the appearance of those fishers as according to the UNCLOS, those vessels are not using the resource from the sea's bottom nor touching the reefs and islands.

In the East China Sea there are some questions cast around in Japan that if China show up with similar number of ships with armed civilian fisheries near Senkaku/Diaoyu and if those boats try to take over these islands, can they defend the islands without breaking their post-WWII constitution restriction on force usage

c933103 wrote:

Antaras wrote:

Another controversy on the SCS.
Hundreds of Chinese militia fishing vessels were spotted near the Whitson Reef of the Union Bank, Spratly Islands. The area is completely covered by the Philippines' EEZ, that is why this country had some strong responses on the appearance of those Chinese ships.
https://thanhnien.vn/the-gioi/con-bao-n ... 58722.html




More about the area, Whitson reef and the Union Bank is claimed by Vietnam, the Philippines, and both of China countries. However, the area is in the Filipinos EEZ, and Vietnam or Taiwan has nothing to do with the appearance of those fishers as according to the UNCLOS, those vessels are not using the resource from the sea's bottom nor touching the reefs and islands.

In the East China Sea there are some questions cast around in Japan that if China show up with similar number of ships with armed civilian fisheries near Senkaku/Diaoyu and if those boats try to take over these islands, can they defend the islands without breaking their post-WWII constitution restriction on force usage

The navy should not intervene if those countries don't want to literally start a military conflict. Instead, they should use the laws enforcement forces such as the Coast Guard or the Fisheries Patrol Force to solve the dispute and protect the national benefit.

It is unlikely that those armed fisheries are powerful enough to "invade" the islands without the intervention of "real" naval force, and that is how wars are started.

If a conflict broke out between Vietnam and China would the United States come to Vietnam's rescue or would they be on their own?

dfwjim1 wrote:

If a conflict broke out between Vietnam and China would the United States come to Vietnam's rescue or would they be on their own?

I see that Vietnam is not expecting anything from the US...
...nor Russia.

May be the US will try to intervene in some level, but to have a chance to slap PRC and not to help Vietnam. Vietnam is also trying not to fight China "under the name" of the US, or to let the US slap China "under the name" of Vietnam.

Some updates on the drama. The Coast Guard vessels of Vietnam and Phillipine have appeared in the area.


Vietnam Coast Guard (VCG) has sent one of its biggest and most modern patrol ships in its fleet: the 2400-ton CSB-8001 of the ĐN-2000 class. The class is based on Damen OPV 9014 design with one helicopter-pad and many special modifications for VCG, and all four ĐN-2000 ships of VCG were fully built by Vietnamese shipyards and considered as the Pride of the Vietnamese Defense Industry. At this moment, this is the second-biggest design in VCG's fleet, just after the Hamilton-class cutter CSB-8020 (ex-Morgenthau), which rarely appears in the disputed area.

https://thanhnien.vn/the-gioi/xem-tau-c ... 10543.html

Meanwhile, the Philippine Coast Guard (PCG) sent the Japanese-built 300-ton BRP Cabra patrol vessel. Even though it is still significantly smaller than many VCG and CCG vessels, it still provides PH a considerable existence in the area.

https://www.flickr.com/photos/huey205/42319230680

https://www.cna.com.tw/news/firstnews/202103280204.aspx
Japan and Indonesia planning joint military exercise in South China Sea

Let's hope no one bumps into each other.

readytotaxi wrote:

Let's hope no one bumps into each other.

Hope that the Phillipines won't do anything st_pid just as they did in the Scarborough crisis.

c933103 wrote:

https://www.cna.com.tw/news/firstnews/202103280204.aspx
Japan and Indonesia planning joint military exercise in South China Sea

Makes sense as Japan needs to retain its existence, benefits and impact in the region.

Shortly ago it signed to provide Vietnam CG up to six 1500-ton patrol vessels.

Antaras wrote:

c933103 wrote:

https://www.cna.com.tw/news/firstnews/202103280204.aspx
Japan and Indonesia planning joint military exercise in South China Sea

Makes sense as Japan needs to retain its existence, benefits and impact in the region.

Shortly ago it signed to provide Vietnam CG up to six 1500-ton patrol vessels.

Japan have much more concern in the region than simply maintaining their existence in the region
If China controlled the South China Dea then they can effectively can implement blockade on traffic from rest of Asia, Africa and Europe to Japan, Taiwan and Korea, which is essentially the entire world minus Americas on the other side of Pacific

c933103 wrote:

Antaras wrote:

c933103 wrote:

https://www.cna.com.tw/news/firstnews/202103280204.aspx
Japan and Indonesia planning joint military exercise in South China Sea

Makes sense as Japan needs to retain its existence, benefits and impact in the region.

Shortly ago it signed to provide Vietnam CG up to six 1500-ton patrol vessels.

Japan have much more concern in the region than simply maintaining their existence in the region
If China controlled the South China Dea then they can effectively can implement blockade on traffic from rest of Asia, Africa and Europe to Japan, Taiwan and Korea, which is essentially the entire world minus Americas on the other side of Pacific

Besides ASEAN countries and the 2 Chinese government (PRC & ROC), Japan is the most active country in the South China Sea dispute as it always supports PH and VN to strengthen the law enforcement forces and even the naval forces.

From Vietnam, we are seeing Japan as a reliable "partner".

Japan has a Top 3-4 navy and air force. They aren't anyone to mess with. They can give anyone a bloody nose if push came to shove.

johns624 wrote:

Japan has a Top 3-4 navy and air force. They aren't anyone to mess with. They can give anyone a bloody nose if push came to shove.

I believe that your mentioned top-five-navy-on-Earth has nothing to do with the crisis on the South China Sea. In fact, everything Japan can do is to "support" Vietnam and the Philippines by supplying them with good toys and vessels and diplomatically pressuring China.

Antaras wrote:

johns624 wrote:

Japan has a Top 3-4 navy and air force. They aren't anyone to mess with. They can give anyone a bloody nose if push came to shove.

I believe that your mentioned top-five-navy-on-Earth has nothing to do with the crisis on the South China Sea. In fact, everything Japan can do is to "support" Vietnam and the Philippines by supplying them with good toys and vessels and diplomatically pressuring China.

You're missing the point. Vietnam and the Philippines can be stronger against the PRC with Japan backing them. Japan can back them because the Japanese can defend themselves. If Vietnam and Philippines bought vessels from the Netherlands, would it have the same effect?

johns624 wrote:

Antaras wrote:

johns624 wrote:

Japan has a Top 3-4 navy and air force. They aren't anyone to mess with. They can give anyone a bloody nose if push came to shove.

I believe that your mentioned top-five-navy-on-Earth has nothing to do with the crisis on the South China Sea. In fact, everything Japan can do is to "support" Vietnam and the Philippines by supplying them with good toys and vessels and diplomatically pressuring China.

You're missing the point. Vietnam and the Philippines can be stronger against the PRC with Japan backing them. Japan can back them because the Japanese can defend themselves. If Vietnam and Philippines bought vessels from the Netherlands, would it have the same effect?

I also mentioned that Japan will support PH and VN by using aid and arms deals, I just meant that Japan won't (or can't) give them direct naval power support as it could not declare nor joining a war.

(Coincidentally, Vietnam is using Netherland ships as the backbone of their Coast Guard and landing fleet)

c933103 wrote:

Antaras wrote:

c933103 wrote:

https://www.cna.com.tw/news/firstnews/202103280204.aspx
Japan and Indonesia planning joint military exercise in South China Sea

Makes sense as Japan needs to retain its existence, benefits and impact in the region.

Shortly ago it signed to provide Vietnam CG up to six 1500-ton patrol vessels.

Japan have much more concern in the region than simply maintaining their existence in the region
If China controlled the South China Dea then they can effectively can implement blockade on traffic from rest of Asia, Africa and Europe to Japan, Taiwan and Korea, which is essentially the entire world minus Americas on the other side of Pacific

No they can't.

If China blockades the South China, Japan can diverts their ships around Indonesia and through the Philippine Sea. It would increase travel time to the Gulf of Aden by 20%. Hardly the end of the world. Only countries like Vietnam actually depend on the South China Sea.

On the hand, an alliance of Malaysia, Indonesia, Philippines, Taiwan, Japan and South Korea could completely blockade China's access to the Pacific and Indian Oceans, completely crippling their economy.

And herein lies the problem alliances. This is an interview of a Taiwanese professor or politics asking India to be part of the solution -

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vP6eI0DihOc

Meanwhile, in the recent on-goind/concluded IPL matches Vivo is and would be title sponsors .

https://cricket.yahoo.net/news/chinese- ... -132236007

Now, of course even though the chinese are in Indian territory, they would say nothing. FWIW, BJP and the State of Gujarat has made billions of dollars of investment in China and the chinese know this. The whole china thing is because of India's own intelligence failure, sadly

Hornberger wrote:

c933103 wrote:

Antaras wrote:

Makes sense as Japan needs to retain its existence, benefits and impact in the region.

Shortly ago it signed to provide Vietnam CG up to six 1500-ton patrol vessels.

Japan have much more concern in the region than simply maintaining their existence in the region
If China controlled the South China Dea then they can effectively can implement blockade on traffic from rest of Asia, Africa and Europe to Japan, Taiwan and Korea, which is essentially the entire world minus Americas on the other side of Pacific

No they can't.

If China blockades the South China, Japan can diverts their ships around Indonesia and through the Philippine Sea. It would increase travel time to the Gulf of Aden by 20%. Hardly the end of the world. Only countries like Vietnam actually depend on the South China Sea.

On the hand, an alliance of Malaysia, Indonesia, Philippines, Taiwan, Japan and South Korea could completely blockade China's access to the Pacific and Indian Oceans, completely crippling their economy.

Actually, Vietnam could just go south and enter Indonesia, Eastern Malaysia and Brunei economic zone and enter International water to the pacific. They could go south to Indonesia and Western Malaysia to enter Indian Ocean.

Even if China controlled South China Sea. They can't hurt South East Asia since their Economic zone prevent China from blocking any ASEAN country and their access to both Pacific or Indian Ocean.

ewt340 wrote:

Actually, Vietnam could just go south and enter Indonesia, Eastern Malaysia and Brunei economic zone and enter International water to the pacific. They could go south to Indonesia and Western Malaysia to enter Indian Ocean.

Even if China controlled South China Sea. They can't hurt South East Asia since their Economic zone prevent China from blocking any ASEAN country and their access to both Pacific or Indian Ocean.

Not really. PRC is still causing trouble for Vietnam right in the Vietnamese EEZ.
I have multiple posts above updating the situation in the Vanguard Bank and seems like with the 9-dash line, PRC doesn't care about any kind of EEZ existence.

Antaras wrote:

ewt340 wrote:

Actually, Vietnam could just go south and enter Indonesia, Eastern Malaysia and Brunei economic zone and enter International water to the pacific. They could go south to Indonesia and Western Malaysia to enter Indian Ocean.

Even if China controlled South China Sea. They can't hurt South East Asia since their Economic zone prevent China from blocking any ASEAN country and their access to both Pacific or Indian Ocean.

Not really. PRC is still causing trouble for Vietnam right in the Vietnamese EEZ.
I have multiple posts above updating the situation in the Vanguard Bank and seems like with the 9-dash line, PRC doesn't care about any kind of EEZ existence.

What I'm saying is, Exclusive economic zone for mainland Vietnam is 200 miles outside of their land territory. Using this (which china didn't dispute) and EEZ for Cambodia, Thailand and Indonesia which are acknowledge by China. China wouldn't be able to blockade any Vietnamese ships in and out of Indian or Pacific Ocean even if they seize control of South China sea including Vanguard Bank.

Any blockade by China would only caused Chinese ships to be blocked from entering Indian Ocean because Australia and Indonesia would be able to blockade China from accessing Indian Ocean Through the channel between Southeast Indonesia and North Australia which fall inside of Australia and Indonesia EEZ (which china also recognize as valid).

This mean that Chinese ships have to go through Western Pacific Ocean before going down to Eastern Australia, down to South Australia before going up again to Indian Ocean.

China try to build road and rail initiative with Pakistan BUT the costs of transferring goods by land from Eastern China to Western China and then crossing high mountain range in north Pakistan and down to South Pakistan would cost tons of money compared to traditional shipping container.

Canadian frigate HMCS Calgary entered the Spratly Area when moving from Brunei to Vietnam, being tailed and monitored by Chinese vessels: https://www.express.co.uk/news/world/14 ... latest-ont

This week, the Canadian Department of National Defence said HMCS Calgary sailed through the South China Sea.

The warship passed through the disputed waters on Monday and Tuesday while traveling from Brunei to Vietnam.

According to a Canadian Defence official speaking on the condition of anonymity, China shadowed the Canadian ship on its journey through the disputed waters.

Defense Department spokesman Daniel Le Bouthillier confirmed that the warship passed near the disputed Spratly Islands.

Philippine military says it has spotted more 'illegal' South China Sea structures: https://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/as ... s-14538060

The Philippine military said on Thursday (Apr 1) it has documented illegal manmade structures on Union Banks in the South China Sea's Spratly Islands, near areas where hundreds of Chinese vessels had massed last month.

Military chief Lieutenant General Cirilito Sobejana said the structures were not far from islands and features claimed by the Philippines (and Vietnam) inside PH's exclusive economic zone.

He did not say which country had built the structures or the extent of the construction.

Meanwhile, Philippines has also spotted Chinese Type-022 missile ships in Mischief Reef: https://globalnation.inquirer.net/19476 ... ide-ph-eez

Three stealth missile fast attack craft of the Chinese People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) were spotted parked at Panganiban Reef in the West Philippine Sea (or the Vietnamese Đá Vành Khăn in the Vietnamese East Sea), a sign of China’s continued expansion of its man-made island there into a military base to enforce its invalidated claim to ownership of nearly the entire South China Sea.

Panganiban Reef—internationally known as Mischief Reef, or called as "Đá Vành Khăn" (literally "Vành Khăn Reef") in Vietnamese—is inside the Philippines’ 370-km exclusive economic zone (EEZ) in the South China Sea and also claimed by Vietnam and Taiwan. Waters within this zone are known locally as the West Philippine Sea or called the East Sea by Vietnam.

The Chinese war vessels were Type 022 wave-piercing catamarans equipped with missile launchers and capable of top speeds of 38 knots (about 70 km per hour) and are considered to be the Chinese Navy’s new-generation stealth missile fast attack craft. These Houbei-class vessels feature a high-speed, wave-piercing catamaran hull design.

Unofficial reports mentioned that Vietnam People's Navy surface fleet base in Cam Ranh has turned on the "red alert" and "ready to have military action" status.

The more China attack the Philippines, the more their reputation would take a hit in ASEAN, this would just push them more and more to the US. With Trump out of the Whitehouse. Biden wouldn't mind spending some money to go to "little" war with China.

Japan, Taiwan, South Korea would monetize this moment to built stronger alliances with ASEAN's top power (Indonesia, Philippines, Malaysia and Vietnam) to negate Chinese power.
We see Japan, Taiwan and South Korea strengthen their ties to India. Japan and South Korea also invest tons of money into Indonesia and Philippines.

It's only time.

ewt340 wrote:

The more China attack the Philippines, the more their reputation would take a hit in ASEAN, this would just push them more and more to the US. With Trump out of the Whitehouse. Biden wouldn't mind spending some money to go to "little" war with China.

Japan, Taiwan, South Korea would monetize this moment to built stronger alliances with ASEAN's top power (Indonesia, Philippines, Malaysia and Vietnam) to negate Chinese power.
We see Japan, Taiwan and South Korea strengthen their ties to India. Japan and South Korea also invest tons of money into Indonesia and Philippines.

It's only time.

With this move, I believe that China is testing Biden's response but seems like it has forgotten to also consider other allies' response. Yep, besides PH, VN, MY, and ID will hardly be happy about this and they have pushed away from China. Chance for Western-sided Northeastern Asia countries like KR, JP, and TW to grab their soft power in ASEAN.

Antaras wrote:

ewt340 wrote:

The more China attack the Philippines, the more their reputation would take a hit in ASEAN, this would just push them more and more to the US. With Trump out of the Whitehouse. Biden wouldn't mind spending some money to go to "little" war with China.

Japan, Taiwan, South Korea would monetize this moment to built stronger alliances with ASEAN's top power (Indonesia, Philippines, Malaysia and Vietnam) to negate Chinese power.
We see Japan, Taiwan and South Korea strengthen their ties to India. Japan and South Korea also invest tons of money into Indonesia and Philippines.

It's only time.

With this move, I believe that China is testing Biden's response but seems like it has forgotten to also consider other allies' response. Yep, besides PH, VN, MY, and ID will hardly be happy about this and they have pushed away from China. Chance for Western-sided Northeastern Asia countries like KR, JP, and TW to grab their soft power in ASEAN.

Yeah, they have been testing South Korea with their Kpop ban, Japan with their products ban in the past, Taiwan with their militaries drill.
And now they are picking fight with India and Southeast Asia at the same time. Meanwhile Russia is busy with Syria, then stabilizing Crimea and its Water crisis and conflict with Ukraine in its border.
Meanwhile the Arab league is strengthening their relationship with Israel and works towards better corporation. This isn't good for both Syria and Iran.

All China got now is North Korea. Which, uhmm, isn't in the best diet at the current moment....

This kinda tell me that there's some slight problem with their economic policies that resulted in potential downturn in upcoming years or even months. Hence the many conflicts that they use to distract their population. I mean their housing market is a mess to begin with. But seems like something has changed domestically.

Now I understand why Biden is really keen on pulling Troops from Afghanistan and why his meeting with Suga is such a big problem for China. They know that Biden wouldn't think twice before pulling the Triger on Taiwan and relocate those troops and resources to Southeast Asia.

Right now we got problem on Taiwanese strait which would definitely spill over into South China Sea with Vietnam and the Philippines. If Duterte didn't went ahead with his nationalistic tactics, his supporters could turn on him.

Beside, India would be watching closely since they still have border dispute with China not too long ago. If they went ahead with these conflicts, it's a free real estate in India-Pakistan-China Borders.

ewt340 wrote:

Now I understand why Biden is really keen on pulling Troops from Afghanistan and why his meeting with Suga is such a big problem for China. They know that Biden wouldn't think twice before pulling the Triger on Taiwan and relocate those troops and resources to Southeast Asia.

Right now we got problem on Taiwanese strait which would definitely spill over into South China Sea with Vietnam and the Philippines. If Duterte didn't went ahead with his nationalistic tactics, his supporters could turn on him.

Beside, India would be watching closely since they still have border dispute with China not too long ago. If they went ahead with these conflicts, it's a free real estate in India-Pakistan-China Borders.

https://www.bloombergquint.com/politics ... inken-says
yes

c933103 wrote:

ewt340 wrote:

Now I understand why Biden is really keen on pulling Troops from Afghanistan and why his meeting with Suga is such a big problem for China. They know that Biden wouldn't think twice before pulling the Triger on Taiwan and relocate those troops and resources to Southeast Asia.

Right now we got problem on Taiwanese strait which would definitely spill over into South China Sea with Vietnam and the Philippines. If Duterte didn't went ahead with his nationalistic tactics, his supporters could turn on him.

Beside, India would be watching closely since they still have border dispute with China not too long ago. If they went ahead with these conflicts, it's a free real estate in India-Pakistan-China Borders.

https://www.bloombergquint.com/politics ... inken-says
yes

Of course, it is time for the US to move away from the Middle-East mess and ready to deal with its main opponent: China P.R.

Vietnamese Molniya-class guided missile corvette #375 appears in the Spratly archipelago. The position was believed as near the Vietnamese outposts of Collins - Lansdowne Reefs,

https://thanhnien.vn/thoi-su/truong-sa- ... 73608.html

Seems like Vietnam is having a stronger response to China's action.