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c933103
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Can we prevent the next war?

Fri Jul 03, 2020 6:52 pm

Recently, China have conducted some provocative actions along/around its border.
For example, it have triggered conflicts along its border with India, it have attacked Vietnamese fishing boats in the South China Sea, and it have planted a NKVD into Hong Kong to impose full control on the city, just in the past month. And then there are also what it constantly did against people in Xinjiang, Tibet, and all of its citizens, as well as the pressure it put against Taiwan and in the East China Sea area,
But surprisingly, countries around the world like EU/UK/US/CA/JP/KR/AU/NZ didn't respond to those actions very strongly, with the most being done against China was along the line of verbal condemnation, sanction against individual officers and companies, as well as some adjustment on trade and export control policy by some countries. There are no actions that would target the entire China, not to mention militaristic intervention some have expected to happen
Combining these limited feedback with the experience of sanction from after the 1989 Tiananmen massacre, I saw an opinion emerging from within China that claim these limited responses essentially mean Western countries are not willing to fight against China, and thus China have obtained a "green pass" to do whatever desired in the region, including military occupation of Taiwan and India-China border region, or a complete genocide against Muslim population in the country. Advocates for those opinion suggest that given how Western countries are unwilling to flex their muscle and how they are prioritizing their own interest over the condition in the Asian region, what China would receive from international community after conducting such opinion would as much be some years of trade isolation by the international community, and before long those Western countries would repair their relationship with China as those countries would not be able to afford losing the trade relationship with "The world's factory" which would impair themselves, and thus China will be able to achieve its goal with a controllable amount of backlashes that it can afford to bear.
If the mentality continues to spread within China, then it seems like it will only be a matter of time before the government follow the direction as the ability for an opinion to spread within China unhindered already indicate the Chinese government have allowed such spread to happen, and that would mean the use of military force to change the geopolitics condition. I don't think other countries might sit around during such circumstances, but regardless of what other countries have done, if China have this step then it would mean it have already started some sort of war. Is this outcome already unpreventable, and if not then how should it be prevented?
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zakuivcustom
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Re: Can we prevent the next war?

Fri Jul 03, 2020 7:50 pm

IMHO about the only thing that will trigger a military response from the west is if they go fill out military occupation of Taiwan.

Short of that, EU had been totally weak when it come to response, US imposed sanctions here and there (and can certainly wreck the whole financial system in HK) but so far the response are fairly meh. SK has a pro-China head, so I have zero expectations from them. JP is Japan, aka will just follow whatever US do. Except, well, Japanese govt had been weak for awhile against China as they relied quite heavily on those RMB to get themselves out of the economic funk.

Australia is going more anti-China, but it remains to see how far they will go.

India is the one and only country I can see go into battle with China as their economy is relatively less reliant on China (they still import quite a bit from China, but the tie itself is also one of the weakest among the big countries).
 
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c933103
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Re: Can we prevent the next war?

Fri Jul 03, 2020 10:13 pm

zakuivcustom wrote:
IMHO about the only thing that will trigger a military response from the west is if they go fill out military occupation of Taiwan.

Short of that, EU had been totally weak when it come to response, US imposed sanctions here and there (and can certainly wreck the whole financial system in HK) but so far the response are fairly meh. SK has a pro-China head, so I have zero expectations from them. JP is Japan, aka will just follow whatever US do. Except, well, Japanese govt had been weak for awhile against China as they relied quite heavily on those RMB to get themselves out of the economic funk.

Australia is going more anti-China, but it remains to see how far they will go.

India is the one and only country I can see go into battle with China as their economy is relatively less reliant on China (they still import quite a bit from China, but the tie itself is also one of the weakest among the big countries).

I would say even military occupation of Taiwan might not be a sure clause for other countries to militarily intervene. However, if those countries do militarily intervene, then that would become a war, and if those countries don't then the next time China do something more breathtaking could be when the war will start, so it seems like that would be the point of no return leading to the next war.
It's pointless to attempt winning internet debate.
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zakuivcustom
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Re: Can we prevent the next war?

Fri Jul 03, 2020 10:38 pm

c933103 wrote:
zakuivcustom wrote:
IMHO about the only thing that will trigger a military response from the west is if they go fill out military occupation of Taiwan.

Short of that, EU had been totally weak when it come to response, US imposed sanctions here and there (and can certainly wreck the whole financial system in HK) but so far the response are fairly meh. SK has a pro-China head, so I have zero expectations from them. JP is Japan, aka will just follow whatever US do. Except, well, Japanese govt had been weak for awhile against China as they relied quite heavily on those RMB to get themselves out of the economic funk.

Australia is going more anti-China, but it remains to see how far they will go.

India is the one and only country I can see go into battle with China as their economy is relatively less reliant on China (they still import quite a bit from China, but the tie itself is also one of the weakest among the big countries).

I would say even military occupation of Taiwan might not be a sure clause for other countries to militarily intervene. However, if those countries do militarily intervene, then that would become a war, and if those countries don't then the next time China do something more breathtaking could be when the war will start, so it seems like that would be the point of no return leading to the next war.


IMHO Taiwan is 1939's Poland - aka definitely a "red line". Plus I highly doubt US will just stand pat and do nothing.

Ultimately, it is one thing when PRC decide to mess around in South China Sea (or Senkaku/Diaoyutai). Taiwan is a different story. There is a reason why Taiwan still exist 70+ years later.

Either way, a new Cold War is definitely brewing.
 
BN747
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Re: Can we prevent the next war?

Sat Jul 04, 2020 12:32 am

zakuivcustom wrote:
c933103 wrote:
zakuivcustom wrote:
IMHO about the only thing that will trigger a military response from the west is if they go fill out military occupation of Taiwan.

Short of that, EU had been totally weak when it come to response, US imposed sanctions here and there (and can certainly wreck the whole financial system in HK) but so far the response are fairly meh. SK has a pro-China head, so I have zero expectations from them. JP is Japan, aka will just follow whatever US do. Except, well, Japanese govt had been weak for awhile against China as they relied quite heavily on those RMB to get themselves out of the economic funk.

Australia is going more anti-China, but it remains to see how far they will go.

India is the one and only country I can see go into battle with China as their economy is relatively less reliant on China (they still import quite a bit from China, but the tie itself is also one of the weakest among the big countries).

I would say even military occupation of Taiwan might not be a sure clause for other countries to militarily intervene. However, if those countries do militarily intervene, then that would become a war, and if those countries don't then the next time China do something more breathtaking could be when the war will start, so it seems like that would be the point of no return leading to the next war.


IMHO Taiwan is 1939's Poland - aka definitely a "red line". Plus I highly doubt US will just stand pat and do nothing.

Ultimately, it is one thing when PRC decide to mess around in South China Sea (or Senkaku/Diaoyutai). Taiwan is a different story. There is a reason why Taiwan still exist 70+ years later.

Either way, a new Cold War is definitely brewing.


You seriously underestimate trump...he'll talk tough on China but he won't do a damn thing because of Ivanka's China production line. And who knows what else he has begged China for, remember his foreign policy goals are shaped to serve him first.

Xi knows how to play him like exactly Putin does. For the right price, he will look the other way and let China do their thing (take Taiwan, a place I spent several years).
The only that can prevent that if the US military ignores his decision and live up to the commitment of the 7th Fleet.

BN747
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Aesma
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Re: Can we prevent the next war?

Sat Jul 04, 2020 12:58 am

There are countless wars going on right now, some "we" try to stop, some "we" encourage.

At the height of the epidemic (in the world), there was a UN resolution being discussed to get a global ceasefire, it was blocked by the US and China disagreeing on the language (Trump wanted to include blame for China in it...).
New Technology is the name we give to stuff that doesn't work yet. Douglas Adams
 
zakuivcustom
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Re: Can we prevent the next war?

Sat Jul 04, 2020 1:40 am

BN747 wrote:
zakuivcustom wrote:
c933103 wrote:
I would say even military occupation of Taiwan might not be a sure clause for other countries to militarily intervene. However, if those countries do militarily intervene, then that would become a war, and if those countries don't then the next time China do something more breathtaking could be when the war will start, so it seems like that would be the point of no return leading to the next war.


IMHO Taiwan is 1939's Poland - aka definitely a "red line". Plus I highly doubt US will just stand pat and do nothing.

Ultimately, it is one thing when PRC decide to mess around in South China Sea (or Senkaku/Diaoyutai). Taiwan is a different story. There is a reason why Taiwan still exist 70+ years later.

Either way, a new Cold War is definitely brewing.


You seriously underestimate trump...he'll talk tough on China but he won't do a damn thing because of Ivanka's China production line. And who knows what else he has begged China for, remember his foreign policy goals are shaped to serve him first.

Xi knows how to play him like exactly Putin does. For the right price, he will look the other way and let China do their thing (take Taiwan, a place I spent several years).
The only that can prevent that if the US military ignores his decision and live up to the commitment of the 7th Fleet.

BN747


Oh, of course I know Trump is getting played. Dictators don't get to where they are without political smart, something that Trump certainly has none.

Taiwan ain't Ukraine, though. It is a lot richer, and doesn't have the internal strife that Ukraine was facing when Russia took over Crimea. Plus being an island always help :).
 
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c933103
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Re: Can we prevent the next war?

Sat Jul 04, 2020 6:14 am

Aesma wrote:
There are countless wars going on right now, some "we" try to stop, some "we" encourage.

At the height of the epidemic (in the world), there was a UN resolution being discussed to get a global ceasefire, it was blocked by the US and China disagreeing on the language (Trump wanted to include blame for China in it...).

I am specifically talking about the next war as indicated in my post, not any arbitrary war.
It's pointless to attempt winning internet debate.
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Redd
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Re: Can we prevent the next war?

Sat Jul 04, 2020 8:03 am

c933103 wrote:
And then there are also what it constantly did against people in Xinjiang,
But surprisingly, countries around the world like EU/UK/US/CA/JP/KR/AU/NZ didn't respond to those actions very strongly, with the most being done against China was along the line of verbal condemnation,



Well, the people China is fighting in Xinjiang is the Turkistan Islamic Party responsible for hundreds of terrorist acts, and condemned by amongst others, the USA, the EU, Russia and the United Nations as a terrorist organization. They want to break away from China and form their own independent state. What do you suggest China do, help them do that and build some mosques for them too?

China has a painful history of being weak, and subservient. Regardless of what we think of China, they're not going to allow themselves to be in a position of weakness like they'd been from just after WW2 back to the opium wars. More Chinese were lost during WW2 than almost all other nations involved combined. It's understandable that they're not going to allow themselves to be bullied and want to sit on the world stage from a position of power.

China is fast becoming the world power, especially as the USA is tearing itself apart at the seams. An idea we're all going to have to get used to.
 
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c933103
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Re: Can we prevent the next war?

Sat Jul 04, 2020 9:23 am

Redd wrote:
Well, the people China is fighting in Xinjiang is the Turkistan Islamic Party responsible for hundreds of terrorist acts, and condemned by amongst others, the USA, the EU, Russia and the United Nations as a terrorist organization. They want to break away from China and form their own independent state. What do you suggest China do, help them do that and build some mosques for them too?

So far, all evident indicates that they are suppressing not just member of radical fractions in the area, and are instead targeting all ~11 Million non-Han residents in the region.
China has a painful history of being weak, and subservient. Regardless of what we think of China, they're not going to allow themselves to be in a position of weakness like they'd been from just after WW2 back to the opium wars. More Chinese were lost during WW2 than almost all other nations involved combined. It's understandable that they're not going to allow themselves to be bullied and want to sit on the world stage from a position of power.

China have been in a weaker state during late 19th century and early 20th century, compares to its own past history. The fall of the Qing empire, followed by establishment of multiple local militia, and subsequently the competition between KMT, CCP, Soviet Union and Imperial Japan within the region of China until the formation of PRC was a period of instability and a period that allowed foreign access to China, both economically, politically and militarily. However, such period of instability is in line with the cyclic trend of Chinese history, where long term unification lead to unrest and division. Thanks to modern military technology, such period have ended in a relative time frame of a century, yet modern technology have enabled the following unified country to bring even more death and misfortune to its population than the previous period of instability.
And I would like to point out, the mentality that "It's understandable that they're not going to allow themselves to be bullied and want to sit on the world stage from a position of power" is a very dangerous one as that is the exact reason why the two previous world war were being triggered.

China is fast becoming the world power, especially as the USA is tearing itself apart at the seams. An idea we're all going to have to get used to.

Is it merely going to be an idea?
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tommy1808
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Re: Can we prevent the next war?

Sat Jul 04, 2020 10:00 am

c933103 wrote:
Redd wrote:
Well, the people China is fighting in Xinjiang is the Turkistan Islamic Party responsible for hundreds of terrorist acts, and condemned by amongst others, the USA, the EU, Russia and the United Nations as a terrorist organization. They want to break away from China and form their own independent state. What do you suggest China do, help them do that and build some mosques for them too?

So far, all evident indicates that they are suppressing not just member of radical fractions in the area, and are instead targeting all ~11 Million non-Han residents in the region.


Which is perfectly good reason to upgrade the TIP to resistance group.

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par13del
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Re: Can we prevent the next war?

Sat Jul 04, 2020 12:25 pm

c933103 wrote:
Aesma wrote:
There are countless wars going on right now, some "we" try to stop, some "we" encourage.

At the height of the epidemic (in the world), there was a UN resolution being discussed to get a global ceasefire, it was blocked by the US and China disagreeing on the language (Trump wanted to include blame for China in it...).

I am specifically talking about the next war as indicated in my post, not any arbitrary war.

Well, you did say next war then immediately went on to China, so do we assume you mean the next world war?
The organizations of the UN and the various governments around the world have found numerous ways to accept, condone or countenance the large numbers of wars that the world has seen since the end of WWII, I expect no different now, when you stand for nothing you fall for anything.
The EU changed their declaration on the virus after China objected to their name being mentioned, and this is for a virus, not bombs and guns, the rest of the world are all flocking to buy medical equipment from China while putting their nations in debt that in many cases will be unsustainable, we really think they will rise to the occasion if China now releases its troops on Hong Kong, consolidate then move on to Taiwan? Other than POTUS who all and sundry believe is "mental", who else would actually lift a finger to help?
 
zakuivcustom
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Re: Can we prevent the next war?

Sat Jul 04, 2020 2:06 pm

Redd wrote:
China is fast becoming the world power, especially as the USA is tearing itself apart at the seams. An idea we're all going to have to get used to.


And in typical USA faction, they were the same people that help China to get to where they are today via all those abuses of cheap labor, selling out USA to make a few more RMB, etc.

Oh, and we have a so-call president who basically broke US support system. Take EU, for example, they had been weak against China for awhile. But why? Bc Trump basically made US a totally unreliable ally and would rather destroy the alliance from within. The whole idea of using EU as a buffer to the east, and Japan/SK/Taiwan as a buffer to the west, reduce the immediate threat from China and Russia To US by a lot. With those gone? Well, that's where we are at right now.

Redd wrote:
More Chinese were lost during WW2 than almost all other nations involved combined. It's understandable that they're not going to allow themselves to be bullied and want to sit on the world stage from a position of power.


False. Russia by far lose the most people during WWII.

par13del wrote:
Other than POTUS who all and sundry believe is "mental", who else would actually lift a finger to help?


And the problem is, the so-call president IS that much of a nut case that nobody should even trust doing the "right" thing. We all know he is willing to sell out the interest of US if the price is right.
 
Redd
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Re: Can we prevent the next war?

Sat Jul 04, 2020 4:43 pm

zakuivcustom wrote:

False. Russia by far lose the most people during WWII.



I forgot to write, except for the USSR. But regardless, I haven't seen a singe estimate anywhere that's put Russian numbers above China's, in terms of WW2 attributed deaths. China is estimated to be at or about 20 million. Regardless, the 2 nations which suffered the most during that conflict. It's not often talked about, the atrocities the Japanese committed towards the Chinese. Not in any way better than the Nazi's.

tommy1808 wrote:
Which is perfectly good reason to upgrade the TIP to resistance group.
Thomas

You seem to be pretty supportive of Islamic extremism, an apologist for its actions. Why is that?

c933103 wrote:
Thanks to modern military technology, such period have ended in a relative time frame of a century, yet modern technology have enabled the following unified country to bring even more death and misfortune to its population than the previous period of instability.

Which eras are you talking about in particular? Under Mao, or the entire history of the PRC? It's really not that bad of a place for the majority of its citizens currently.

c933103 wrote:
And I would like to point out, the mentality that "It's understandable that they're not going to allow themselves to be bullied and want to sit on the world stage from a position of power" is a very dangerous one as that is the exact reason why the two previous world war were being triggered.

Except China has never started large scale wars or has never been a colonial power. Unless you count Tibet, but unless you're a totally closed minded leftist, the ownership of Tibet is very open to debate.


c933103 wrote:
Is it merely going to be an idea?


Well, I think China being the world power over the USA is inevitable. The question is whether there will be more peace than under American world leadership since WW2. China seems to prefer cooperation as a road to long term stability and benefit. Africa is a really good example of that. And it's mostly the same through their very long history.
 
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par13del
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Re: Can we prevent the next war?

Sat Jul 04, 2020 5:42 pm

zakuivcustom wrote:
And the problem is, the so-call president IS that much of a nut case that nobody should even trust doing the "right" thing. We all know he is willing to sell out the interest of US if the price is right.

See...its not about what China would be doing or not doing....somehow it gets lost in the shuffle.
 
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c933103
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Re: Can we prevent the next war?

Sat Jul 04, 2020 8:28 pm

Redd wrote:
I forgot to write, except for the USSR. But regardless, I haven't seen a singe estimate anywhere that's put Russian numbers above China's, in terms of WW2 attributed deaths. China is estimated to be at or about 20 million. Regardless, the 2 nations which suffered the most during that conflict. It's not often talked about, the atrocities the Japanese committed towards the Chinese. Not in any way better than the Nazi's.

More people being killed ≠ worse atrocity. The number of causality of Soviet Union and China during WWII was a rrsult of them trying to use quantity to make up of quality of their military.

c933103 wrote:
Thanks to modern military technology, such period have ended in a relative time frame of a century, yet modern technology have enabled the following unified country to bring even more death and misfortune to its population than the previous period of instability.

Which eras are you talking about in particular? Under Mao, or the entire history of the PRC? It's really not that bad of a place for the majority of its citizens currently.

The era from the establishment of PRC until the reform and opening up.

c933103 wrote:
And I would like to point out, the mentality that "It's understandable that they're not going to allow themselves to be bullied and want to sit on the world stage from a position of power" is a very dangerous one as that is the exact reason why the two previous world war were being triggered.

Except China has never started large scale wars or has never been a colonial power. Unless you count Tibet, but unless you're a totally closed minded leftist, the ownership of Tibet is very open to debate.

What are you talking about? China literally colonized everything under the curtain of heaven that they're aware of.
And no large scale war? Are you saying this because all the countries around China are small scale, hence every war of conquest which caused it to expand from being a tribe near Yellow River to a giant emperor allegedly spanning from the equator to the Arctic a result of zero large scale war?

par13del wrote:
zakuivcustom wrote:
And the problem is, the so-call president IS that much of a nut case that nobody should even trust doing the "right" thing. We all know he is willing to sell out the interest of US if the price is right.

See...its not about what China would be doing or not doing....somehow it gets lost in the shuffle.

I think you have been misreading the situation. First of all, it is not a question solely for United States, it is a question for United States plus United Kingdom plus European Union countries plus Australia plus New Zealand plus Canada plus Japan plus South Korea. Secondly, as have been analyzed in my post, inaction from these listed countries will only lead to a further push which would ultimately force them to, just like history in 1930s.
It's pointless to attempt winning internet debate.
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zakuivcustom
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Re: Can we prevent the next war?

Sat Jul 04, 2020 8:37 pm

Redd wrote:
You seem to be pretty supportive of Islamic extremism, an apologist for its actions. Why is that?


All I will say about this is that history is written by the victor. ALL resistance are consider "extremism" or "terrorism", yes, even the US founding fathers.

c933103 wrote:
I think you have been misreading the situation. First of all, it is not a question solely for United States, it is a question for United States plus United Kingdom plus European Union countries plus Australia plus New Zealand plus Canada plus Japan plus South Korea. Secondly, as have been analyzed in my post, inaction from these listed countries will only lead to a further push which would ultimately force them to, just like history in 1930s.


The problem is that US ultimately is the "big brother" and everyone else just follow. With US being such an ineffective leader right now, the effect is showing - the like of PRC is going to take advantage and increase their sphere of influence.

Redd wrote:
Well, I think China being the world power over the USA is inevitable. The question is whether there will be more peace than under American world leadership since WW2. China seems to prefer cooperation as a road to long term stability and benefit. Africa is a really good example of that. And it's mostly the same through their very long history


China in Africa is basically neocolonism anyway. Actually no different than what US had be doing to be fair.

The bottom line is that it is two major superpower competing for influence, and eventually they will clash with each other.
 
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c933103
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Re: Can we prevent the next war?

Sat Jul 04, 2020 10:25 pm

Foxed format of my previous reply:
Redd wrote:
I forgot to write, except for the USSR. But regardless, I haven't seen a singe estimate anywhere that's put Russian numbers above China's, in terms of WW2 attributed deaths. China is estimated to be at or about 20 million. Regardless, the 2 nations which suffered the most during that conflict. It's not often talked about, the atrocities the Japanese committed towards the Chinese. Not in any way better than the Nazi's.

More people being killed ≠ worse atrocity. The number of causality of Soviet Union and China during WWII was a rrsult of them trying to use quantity to make up of quality of their military.

Which eras are you talking about in particular? Under Mao, or the entire history of the PRC? It's really not that bad of a place for the majority of its citizens currently.

The era from the establishment of PRC until the reform and opening up.


Except China has never started large scale wars or has never been a colonial power. Unless you count Tibet, but unless you're a totally closed minded leftist, the ownership of Tibet is very open to debate.

What are you talking about? China literally colonized everything under the curtain of heaven that they're aware of.
And no large scale war? Are you saying this because all the countries around China are small scale, hence every war of conquest which caused it to expand from being a tribe near Yellow River to a giant emperor allegedly spanning from the equator to the Arctic a result of zero large scale war?

par13del wrote:
See...its not about what China would be doing or not doing....somehow it gets lost in the shuffle.

I think you have been misreading the situation. First of all, it is not a question solely for United States, it is a question for United States plus United Kingdom plus European Union countries plus Australia plus New Zealand plus Canada plus Japan plus South Korea. Secondly, as have been analyzed in my post, inaction from these listed countries will only lead to a further push which would ultimately force them to, just like history in 1930s.
It's pointless to attempt winning internet debate.
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anrec80
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Re: Can we prevent the next war?

Sun Jul 05, 2020 3:11 am

zakuivcustom wrote:
Taiwan ain't Ukraine, though. It is a lot richer, and doesn't have the internal strife that Ukraine was facing when Russia took over Crimea. Plus being an island always help :).


In order for such takeover to happen, the population in the area needs to be predominantly and overwhelmingly loyal and want exactly that. In Crimea, this was and still is the case. In case of Taiwan - who knows.
 
LCDFlight
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Re: Can we prevent the next war?

Sun Jul 05, 2020 5:28 am

anrec80 wrote:
zakuivcustom wrote:
Taiwan ain't Ukraine, though. It is a lot richer, and doesn't have the internal strife that Ukraine was facing when Russia took over Crimea. Plus being an island always help :).


In order for such takeover to happen, the population in the area needs to be predominantly and overwhelmingly loyal and want exactly that. In Crimea, this was and still is the case. In case of Taiwan - who knows.


The main value of Taiwan - as with Hong Kong - is the vibrant, developed rule of law and smart people who live there. Otherwise, it is just another island. When China extinguishes rule of law, it would make Taiwan just another rural outskirt in a Communist regime.

The bastion for the millions of Chinese people who value rule of law, press freedom, intellectual property rights may be confined to the EU, Australia, NZ, Canada, US. The CCP seems to want to kick them out of China and Taiwan.
 
anrec80
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Re: Can we prevent the next war?

Sun Jul 05, 2020 6:02 am

LCDFlight wrote:
The main value of Taiwan - as with Hong Kong - is the vibrant, developed rule of law and smart people who live there. Otherwise, it is just another island. When China extinguishes rule of law, it would make Taiwan just another rural outskirt in a Communist regime.


The point I was trying to make - in 21st century, nobody is interested in a territory with population that will require investments of resources and subsidies, without any gain. In case of Taiwan, China will get a territory with mostly non-loyal population, all the talent and know-hows will be taken elsewhere, and China will be left with an island being nothing but a drag.

Similar situation is for Russia and Ukraine. Crimea had population nearly 100% loyal to Russia, and they voted to join themselves. Crimea is also of strategic importance to Russia. The rest of Ukraine - local elites even in pro-Russian regions have their own little business interests they will not be able to pursue in Russia. E.g. in Odessa, local elites strive off contraband arising from a major port. In Donetsk, even under DNR now, financial schemes around their coal haven’t disappeared anywhere. Ukrainian oligarchs are major people in Ukraine, maintaining their own groups in parliament on payroll, while in Russia owners of 3 factories like them are numerous, and the richest of them can only hope to be at the end of the first 100. Hence we have - Russia simply isn’t interested in taking over Ukraine due to no value in it. They had some things in Ukraine interesting to them maybe a decade ago, but not anymore.
 
sierrakilo44
Posts: 327
Joined: Tue Dec 13, 2011 1:38 am

Re: Can we prevent the next war?

Sun Jul 05, 2020 6:58 am

c933103 wrote:
Recently, China have conducted some provocative actions along/around its border.
For example, it have triggered conflicts along its border with India,


Where's your evidence it was China that triggered the conflict with the Indians? The only sources that say so have been from the Indian military which would of course have an obvious bias. Even Modi himself admitted no Chinese soldiers entered Indian territory, which means Indian soldiers must have crossed into Chinese territory:

https://mumbaimirror.indiatimes.com/new ... 471096.cms

it have attacked Vietnamese fishing boats in the South China Sea


It is disputed what happened in the water in that incident, the Chinese say it was an accidental collision between two vessels, which was also reported in the not so Chinese government friendly SCMP:

https://www.scmp.com/news/china/militar ... guard-ship

No independent investigation has been carried out so no one knows for sure what happened.

and it have planted a NKVD into Hong Kong to impose full control on the city, just in the past month.


What are you talking about? The NKVD was a spy department of the former Soviet Union, not China. There has been a spy agency at work in Hong Kong however causing chaos, the NED offshoot of the CIA has been up to their necks with their involvement in this "protest" movement. Can you imagine if a Chinese agency was funding anti-US government protesters in America? Here's some good reporting from the Singaporean Straits Times:

https://www.straitstimes.com/asia/the-c ... -columnist

And then there are also what it constantly did against people in Xinjiang, Tibet, and all of its citizens


It's very complicated to go into but as user Redd stated China is fighting Islamic Extremists. The US fights them by bombing the living daylights out of any Muslim country, whether the country is related to extremism or not. China is trying to deprogram a generation of youth brainwashed by Islamist propaganda. It isn't "ethnically cleansing" in Xinjiang, they have built over 20,000 mosques there and Uighurs were exempt from the one child policy.


Why is the title of this thread then "Can we prevent the next war?"

The "next war" is already happening. The United States is currently using military force officially in 7 nations (and probably many more in covert operations) - Afghanistan, Iraq, Syria, Yemen, Somalia, Libya, and Niger. China hasn't fired a shot in anger outside it's borders since 1988 after a small skirmish with the Vietnamese navy. Since then it has risen from outside the top 10 GDP nations to either number 1 or 2, depending on how you count GDP, completely peacefully. This has never before happened in the human history, such a peaceful rapid rise of a nation.

Are we going to discuss how to stop the current wars of the United States? I thought that should be the goal if you made to title of the thread about preventing war?
 
tommy1808
Posts: 12887
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Re: Can we prevent the next war?

Sun Jul 05, 2020 7:07 am

Redd wrote:
tommy1808 wrote:
Which is perfectly good reason to upgrade the TIP to resistance group.
Thomas

You seem to be pretty supportive of Islamic extremism, an apologist for its actions. Why is that?
.


When bad is fighting worst, one should side with bad, not with worst, as we currently do.

Best regards
Thomas
Well, there is prophecy in the bible after all: 2 Timothy 3:1-6
 
zakuivcustom
Posts: 3488
Joined: Sat Jun 10, 2017 3:32 am

Re: Can we prevent the next war?

Sun Jul 05, 2020 1:10 pm

sierrakilo44 wrote:
What are you talking about? The NKVD was a spy department of the former Soviet Union, not China. There has been a spy agency at work in Hong Kong however causing chaos, the NED offshoot of the CIA has been up to their necks with their involvement in this "protest" movement. Can you imagine if a Chinese agency was funding anti-US government protesters in America? Here's some good reporting from the Singaporean Straits Times:

https://www.straitstimes.com/asia/the-c ... -columnist


Umm, the whole "National Security Agency" that was set up? How is that not NKVD.

And gotta love somebody who think an OpEd that basically toe the "foreign interference" line that China keep trying to sell (to the point they use that as an excuse to dump that national security law in HK), also ignoring the fact of what happened during 721 and 831 that essentially kept the protest moving when it was dying down.

Oh, and you don't live in Hong Kong (or is from there like I am), how much you really know about the resentment, especially among the youth, against the govt anyway? If you are a Singaporean, congrats, you got your HDB with a mostly competent govt (albeit god knows how much Lee's wife is taking from the Temasek fund), but also, as most visitors that had visit both S'pore and HK said, a stale, plaid city.
 
sierrakilo44
Posts: 327
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Re: Can we prevent the next war?

Sun Jul 05, 2020 1:47 pm

zakuivcustom wrote:
sierrakilo44 wrote:
What are you talking about? The NKVD was a spy department of the former Soviet Union, not China. There has been a spy agency at work in Hong Kong however causing chaos, the NED offshoot of the CIA has been up to their necks with their involvement in this "protest" movement. Can you imagine if a Chinese agency was funding anti-US government protesters in America? Here's some good reporting from the Singaporean Straits Times:

https://www.straitstimes.com/asia/the-c ... -columnist


Umm, the whole "National Security Agency" that was set up? How is that not NKVD.

And gotta love somebody who think an OpEd that basically toe the "foreign interference" line that China keep trying to sell (to the point they use that as an excuse to dump that national security law in HK), also ignoring the fact of what happened during 721 and 831 that essentially kept the protest moving when it was dying down.


Sorry, there's more evidence of US Government involvement in the Hong Kong protests than just an op ed in Singapore paper (although the facts in op ed can't be disptued)

Joshua Wong met with US politicians
https://thegrayzone.com/2019/11/22/hong ... ardliners/

US pilot tried to smuggle weapons into Hong Kong
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/as ... story.html

Payments to help protest leaders avoid capture by Chinese police
https://www.rt.com/news/493671-us-fundi ... rotesters/

Evidence of NED involvement in Hong Kong since 2014
https://asiatimes.com/2019/10/tracking- ... hong-kong/

You'll notice each source I have used is not controlled by the Chinese Government.

I'll ask, how would Americans feel if a group sponsored by the Chinese government was bankrolling protests in the US aimed at subverting the government of the US (even something like Black Lives Matter) with those protest leaders being caught on camera meeting with senior Chinese government officials. You think the US would just sit by and let it happen?

A "National Security Agency" in Hong Kong? Well, Hong Kong is part of China. The Chinese government have a right to protect the security of their nation, including Hong Kong. Don't worry, I'm sure the HK NSA won't be as intrusive as the US NSA, which was spying on US citizens cart blanche as revealed by Ed Snowden. Or the FBI, or CIA, or ATF, or DEA or every other federal, state and local US law enforcement agency intruding in US citizen's lives.
 
LCDFlight
Posts: 441
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Re: Can we prevent the next war?

Sun Jul 05, 2020 2:04 pm

sierrakilo44 wrote:
zakuivcustom wrote:
sierrakilo44 wrote:
What are you talking about? The NKVD was a spy department of the former Soviet Union, not China. There has been a spy agency at work in Hong Kong however causing chaos, the NED offshoot of the CIA has been up to their necks with their involvement in this "protest" movement. Can you imagine if a Chinese agency was funding anti-US government protesters in America? Here's some good reporting from the Singaporean Straits Times:

https://www.straitstimes.com/asia/the-c ... -columnist


Umm, the whole "National Security Agency" that was set up? How is that not NKVD.

And gotta love somebody who think an OpEd that basically toe the "foreign interference" line that China keep trying to sell (to the point they use that as an excuse to dump that national security law in HK), also ignoring the fact of what happened during 721 and 831 that essentially kept the protest moving when it was dying down.


Sorry, there's more evidence of US Government involvement in the Hong Kong protests than just an op ed in Singapore paper (although the facts in op ed can't be disptued)

Joshua Wong met with US politicians
https://thegrayzone.com/2019/11/22/hong ... ardliners/

US pilot tried to smuggle weapons into Hong Kong
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/as ... story.html

Payments to help protest leaders avoid capture by Chinese police
https://www.rt.com/news/493671-us-fundi ... rotesters/

Evidence of NED involvement in Hong Kong since 2014
https://asiatimes.com/2019/10/tracking- ... hong-kong/

You'll notice each source I have used is not controlled by the Chinese Government.

I'll ask, how would Americans feel if a group sponsored by the Chinese government was bankrolling protests in the US aimed at subverting the government of the US (even something like Black Lives Matter) with those protest leaders being caught on camera meeting with senior Chinese government officials. You think the US would just sit by and let it happen?

A "National Security Agency" in Hong Kong? Well, Hong Kong is part of China. The Chinese government have a right to protect the security of their nation, including Hong Kong. Don't worry, I'm sure the HK NSA won't be as intrusive as the US NSA, which was spying on US citizens cart blanche as revealed by Ed Snowden. Or the FBI, or CIA, or ATF, or DEA or every other federal, state and local US law enforcement agency intruding in US citizen's lives.


Truth is somewhere in between for both. US shows great restraint in refraining from interference. To claim, as you do, that anything HK people say is of no value, because the US may have had a tiny amount of involvement, is awfully convenient. It is even more true to say powerful US apparatus supports Beijing, supports totalitarian Communism. There are many written records and financial transfers to confirm this point.

It is also expected that China and Russia interfere as much as they can in. US, Canadian, Australian, European affairs. And that's only the beginning. Latin America and Africa they can be extremely overt in the political meddling. I didn't say US good China evil, even though that my opinion. I just said both sides engage in covert strategic activities.
 
zakuivcustom
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Re: Can we prevent the next war?

Sun Jul 05, 2020 2:29 pm

sierrakilo44 wrote:
I'll ask, how would Americans feel if a group sponsored by the Chinese government was bankrolling protests in the US aimed at subverting the government of the US (even something like Black Lives Matter) with those protest leaders being caught on camera meeting with senior Chinese government officials. You think the US would just sit by and let it happen?


Ahh...the same BLM that Trump claim is funded by "external interference", is a "Marxist group", etc?

sierrakilo44 wrote:
A "National Security Agency" in Hong Kong? Well, Hong Kong is part of China. The Chinese government have a right to protect the security of their nation, including Hong Kong. Don't worry, I'm sure the HK NSA won't be as intrusive as the US NSA, which was spying on US citizens cart blanche as revealed by Ed Snowden. Or the FBI, or CIA, or ATF, or DEA or every other federal, state and local US law enforcement agency intruding in US citizen's lives.


Apples and Oranges.

Sure, except in 5 days you already have people arrested for "subversion to the country" merely having stickers that show protest slogans, and this is with the National Security Agency not 100% up and running yet.

Meanwhile, I can still rise the Confederate Flag or the Nazi Flag in US and I can maybe get arrested for BS like "disturbing the peace", certainly not "subversion to a country".

Now, US is certainly no saints - Guantanamo Bay comes to mind. Two wrongs never make a rights, though.
 
anrec80
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Re: Can we prevent the next war?

Mon Jul 06, 2020 3:37 am

LCDFlight wrote:
Truth is somewhere in between for both. US shows great restraint in refraining from interference. To claim, as you do, that anything HK people say is of no value, because the US may have had a tiny amount of involvement, is awfully convenient. It is even more true to say powerful US apparatus supports Beijing, supports totalitarian Communism. There are many written records and financial transfers to confirm this point.


Really? The primary purpose of the US embassies is exactly that. Number of pretty low key, crooks and corrupt “opposition parties” and “opposition leaders” supported by the US around the world? “Free media”? And that all result in armed coups (oh, sorry, “nations fighting for freedom”), poverty spikes, civil wars and other beautiful and democratic stuff.

LCDFlight wrote:
It is also expected that China and Russia interfere as much as they can in. US, Canadian, Australian, European affairs. And that's only the beginning. Latin America and Africa they can be extremely overt in the political meddling. I didn't say US good China evil, even though that my opinion. I just said both sides engage in covert strategic activities.


Russian or Chinese ambassadors or FMs were not noticed in CHOP or other BLM events to show support, unlike US foreign policy officials in similar circumstances.
 
anrec80
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Re: Can we prevent the next war?

Mon Jul 06, 2020 3:47 am

zakuivcustom wrote:
Umm, the whole "National Security Agency" that was set up? How is that not NKVD.

And gotta love somebody who think an OpEd that basically toe the "foreign interference" line that China keep trying to sell (to the point they use that as an excuse to dump that national security law in HK), also ignoring the fact of what happened during 721 and 831 that essentially kept the protest moving when it was dying down.


I told you so - you’ve been supporting the wrong thing. You have gone crazy over a much softer thing - just to accept a much harsher one. Yes Chinese comrades and Putin are known for that - when they are at the negotiation table, you should negotiate their first offer, because later the terms will get only worse. I don’t think there will be much protests anymore - the “protest leaders” have shut down their shops and some were seen already in all the way in Congress (and that is despite the Pandemics). Expectedly - no business is worth risking getting 20 years for.

zakuivcustom wrote:
Oh, and you don't live in Hong Kong (or is from there like I am), how much you really know about the resentment, especially among the youth, against the govt anyway? If you are a Singaporean, congrats, you got your HDB with a mostly competent govt (albeit god knows how much Lee's wife is taking from the Temasek fund), but also, as most visitors that had visit both S'pore and HK said, a stale, plaid city.


What about the youth? Yes, universities (especially Western ones) are citadels of these “liberal movements” and “freedom fighting”. And any government is better stepping in and figuring out what’s going on there.
 
anrec80
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Re: Can we prevent the next war?

Mon Jul 06, 2020 3:50 am

tommy1808 wrote:

When bad is fighting worst, one should side with bad, not with worst, as we currently do.


In that kind of fights, we should be not even trying to figure out what’s this over, who is winning. An ethical individual or entity should simply not approach or enter such territories. Just not get involved, anyhow and let these two bads figure it among themselves.
 
sierrakilo44
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Re: Can we prevent the next war?

Mon Jul 06, 2020 4:01 am

anrec80 wrote:
Really? The primary purpose of the US embassies is exactly that. Number of pretty low key, crooks and corrupt “opposition parties” and “opposition leaders” supported by the US around the world? “Free media”? And that all result in armed coups (oh, sorry, “nations fighting for freedom”), poverty spikes, civil wars and other beautiful and democratic stuff.

Russian or Chinese ambassadors or FMs were not noticed in CHOP or other BLM events to show support, unlike US foreign policy officials in similar circumstances.


Just in the last few years leaders the US has tried to destabilise the Venezuelan government and put a self declared politician who came out of nowhere into the Presidency, taken down Bolivia's Morales in a coup using documents that have now been proven to be fake, took out Gaddafi in Libya because he wanted to remove Libya from the US dollar, tried to destabilise and overthrow the Iranian government after the US tore up an internationally recognised agreement, supported Islamists attempting to overthrow the Syrian government, backing Israel as they occupy Palestine, backing Saudi Arabia as they brutalise Yemen, in addition to messing around in Hong Kong (which is part of China, not a separate country). That's from the last 10 years alone. China hasn't even come close to matching that record.
 
tommy1808
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Re: Can we prevent the next war?

Mon Jul 06, 2020 4:29 am

anrec80 wrote:
tommy1808 wrote:

When bad is fighting worst, one should side with bad, not with worst, as we currently do.


In that kind of fights, we should be not even trying to figure out what’s this over, who is winning. An ethical individual or entity should simply not approach or enter such territories. Just not get involved, anyhow and let these two bads figure it among themselves.


ah... "appeasement", because that always works.. not.

best regards
Thomas
Well, there is prophecy in the bible after all: 2 Timothy 3:1-6
 
LCDFlight
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Re: Can we prevent the next war?

Mon Jul 06, 2020 10:39 am

anrec80 wrote:
LCDFlight wrote:
It is also expected that China and Russia interfere as much as they can in. US, Canadian, Australian, European affairs. And that's only the beginning. Latin America and Africa they can be extremely overt in the political meddling. I didn't say US good China evil, even though that my opinion. I just said both sides engage in covert strategic activities.


Russian or Chinese ambassadors or FMs were not noticed in CHOP or other BLM events to show support, unlike US foreign policy officials in similar circumstances.


Sigh. It is US policy to pursue universal suffrage and freedom of speech in every country in the world ("democracy" and "freedom").

If you are a US government agent, clearly you should not go to the protest. Because your presence will be used to massively discredit the protest. A well educated government agent knows this and will stay away. A mediocre staff member with a lower aptitude will go to the protest, because after all, it supports "democracy and freedom of speech," and these are official US policy goals.

So you're right.. it is extremely harmful for US staff to go. It is totally counter-productive. But we probably can't fire a US govt employee for supporting what are indeed US diplomatic priorities. I guess that makes us "evil" lol.
 
sierrakilo44
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Re: Can we prevent the next war?

Mon Jul 06, 2020 11:13 am

LCDFlight wrote:
Sigh. It is US policy to pursue universal suffrage and freedom of speech in every country in the world ("democracy" and "freedom").


Between gerrymandering, a disproportionate Senate, suppression of the vote, a leader who lies through his teeth and was elected with a minority of the vote, campaign finance laws and lobbyists America doesn’t even qualify as a Democracy itself. No joke, researchers classify it as a “flawed democracy”:

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/worl ... 95121.html

By the same token the US has far to go on the freedom index as well. 53rd on the Civil Liberties index:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Freedom_in_the_World
45th on Press freedom:
https://rsf.org/en/ranking/2020

Looks like the US needs to sort out democracy and freedom in the US before they export “democracy and freedom” to whichever country they deem the government of is not acquiescing to their wishes.
 
LCDFlight
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Re: Can we prevent the next war?

Mon Jul 06, 2020 11:42 am

sierrakilo44 wrote:
LCDFlight wrote:
Sigh. It is US policy to pursue universal suffrage and freedom of speech in every country in the world ("democracy" and "freedom").


Between gerrymandering, a disproportionate Senate, suppression of the vote, a leader who lies through his teeth and was elected with a minority of the vote, campaign finance laws and lobbyists America doesn’t even qualify as a Democracy itself. No joke, researchers classify it as a “flawed democracy”:

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/worl ... 95121.html

By the same token the US has far to go on the freedom index as well. 53rd on the Civil Liberties index:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Freedom_in_the_World
45th on Press freedom:
https://rsf.org/en/ranking/2020

Looks like the US needs to sort out democracy and freedom in the US before they export “democracy and freedom” to whichever country they deem the government of is not acquiescing to their wishes.


Nobody's perfect. The US is a bit chaotic, and always has been, by design. We tolerate a bit of turbulence instead of silencing people and ethnic cleansing them.

You say people can't make statements unless they are perfect. Okay, neat argument to silence anyone.

The US was formed on the basis that it has an Electoral College, which is directly proportional to state populations. The country never claimed to have a system other than that.

To try to obfuscate the differences between an open and free modern society and a place like China or Russia just shows you don't really believe what you are saying.
 
anrec80
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Re: Can we prevent the next war?

Mon Jul 06, 2020 8:30 pm

tommy1808 wrote:
ah... "appeasement", because that always works.. not.

best regards
Thomas


When we are talking about a situation when two crooks are figuring out who is crookier (and vast majority of the situations you are talking about are like this), yes - it’s better to just not get involved. Otherwise at least one of the crooks will simply take advantage of you. And don’t think you will gain anything for your interests - you are playing on their field by rules tweaked and established by them. And they aren’t any dumber than you are. And there are countless examples of this in recent history.
 
anrec80
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Re: Can we prevent the next war?

Mon Jul 06, 2020 8:38 pm

sierrakilo44 wrote:
Looks like the US needs to sort out democracy and freedom in the US before they export “democracy and freedom” to whichever country they deem the government of is not acquiescing to their wishes.


:checkmark: :checkmark: :checkmark:

Can’t agree more. The USA has too many problems of its own. They need first to sort out their own issues first, and start working on root cause of the recent social instability. The rest of the world sees what’s going on, and nobody in their own country wants any of that.
 
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c933103
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Re: Can we prevent the next war?

Tue Jul 07, 2020 12:26 am

anrec80 wrote:
The point I was trying to make - in 21st century, nobody is interested in a territory with population that will require investments of resources and subsidies, without any gain. In case of Taiwan, China will get a territory with mostly non-loyal population, all the talent and know-hows will be taken elsewhere, and China will be left with an island being nothing but a drag.

Similar situation is for Russia and Ukraine. Crimea had population nearly 100% loyal to Russia, and they voted to join themselves. Crimea is also of strategic importance to Russia. The rest of Ukraine - local elites even in pro-Russian regions have their own little business interests they will not be able to pursue in Russia. E.g. in Odessa, local elites strive off contraband arising from a major port. In Donetsk, even under DNR now, financial schemes around their coal haven’t disappeared anywhere. Ukrainian oligarchs are major people in Ukraine, maintaining their own groups in parliament on payroll, while in Russia owners of 3 factories like them are numerous, and the richest of them can only hope to be at the end of the first 100. Hence we have - Russia simply isn’t interested in taking over Ukraine due to no value in it. They had some things in Ukraine interesting to them maybe a decade ago, but not anymore.

I think you didn't realize the world history isn't in sync. In China nowadays, what they valuate is stability of their own control on their country. If military invasion and control of a foreign territory mean that then that is what they would do.
It's pointless to attempt winning internet debate.
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c933103
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Re: Can we prevent the next war?

Tue Jul 07, 2020 2:39 am

anrec80 wrote:
tommy1808 wrote:
ah... "appeasement", because that always works.. not.

best regards
Thomas


When we are talking about a situation when two crooks are figuring out who is crookier (and vast majority of the situations you are talking about are like this), yes - it’s better to just not get involved. Otherwise at least one of the crooks will simply take advantage of you. And don’t think you will gain anything for your interests - you are playing on their field by rules tweaked and established by them. And they aren’t any dumber than you are. And there are countless examples of this in recent history.

Are you saying either,
a.) Stalin Russia, European colonial countries, or United States with race segregation in 1930s-1940s are better than modern version of those countries,
or,
b.) Those countries at the time were also only fighting to "figuring out who is crookier" and thus they shouldn't fight the war back then?
It's pointless to attempt winning internet debate.
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DL717
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Re: Can we prevent the next war?

Tue Jul 07, 2020 3:44 am

Depends on how bad things get over this COVID mess. Desperation leads to bad decisions. See WWII. The world probably put the screws to Germany a little too much after WWI. Here we sit close to 80 years after WWII dealing with the byproducts of the Cold War that followed.
Welcome to Nothingburgers. May I take your order?
 
anrec80
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Re: Can we prevent the next war?

Tue Jul 07, 2020 1:34 pm

c933103 wrote:
I think you didn't realize the world history isn't in sync. In China nowadays, what they valuate is stability of their own control on their country. If military invasion and control of a foreign territory mean that then that is what they would do.


Let's say that not many wars help stability in their respective countries. A quick and victorious one, without much tension on society - those can. But when it drags on - that doesn't work.
 
anrec80
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Re: Can we prevent the next war?

Tue Jul 07, 2020 1:35 pm

c933103 wrote:
Are you saying either,
a.) Stalin Russia, European colonial countries, or United States with race segregation in 1930s-1940s are better than modern version of those countries,
or,
b.) Those countries at the time were also only fighting to "figuring out who is crookier" and thus they shouldn't fight the war back then?


I am talking of the most recent events (last 10-15 years), not earlier ones.
 
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c933103
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Re: Can we prevent the next war?

Tue Jul 07, 2020 8:54 pm

anrec80 wrote:
c933103 wrote:
Are you saying either,
a.) Stalin Russia, European colonial countries, or United States with race segregation in 1930s-1940s are better than modern version of those countries,
or,
b.) Those countries at the time were also only fighting to "figuring out who is crookier" and thus they shouldn't fight the war back then?


I am talking of the most recent events (last 10-15 years), not earlier ones.

And I am trying to present you a more complete comparison by extending the scale
It's pointless to attempt winning internet debate.
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sierrakilo44
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Re: Can we prevent the next war?

Wed Jul 08, 2020 12:53 am

c933103 wrote:
And I am trying to present you a more complete comparison by extending the scale


Why not extend it even further back? The UK did a lot of evil things in the 17th and 18th centuries, colonising poor third world countries and doing horrible things in them (the killings of indigenous Australians for example, over 100,000 killed).

You can even trace some of present day China’s motivations and actions as a response to their treatment by the British in the 1800s. The flooding of China with drugs, the Opium Wars, the seizure of Hong Kong, the burning and looting of the Summer Palace in Beijing in 1860 and the Boxer Rebellion when the UK (and other nations) occupied Beijing, plundered Chinese money and summarily executed Chinese peasants.

It’s part of the “century of humiliation” that the British have forgotten about but the Chinese strongly remember, and is burned into their national psyche to this day.
Last edited by sierrakilo44 on Wed Jul 08, 2020 1:06 am, edited 2 times in total.
 
sierrakilo44
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Re: Can we prevent the next war?

Wed Jul 08, 2020 1:04 am

c933103 wrote:
I think you didn't realize the world history isn't in sync. In China nowadays, what they valuate is stability of their own control on their country. If military invasion and control of a foreign territory mean that then that is what they would do.


The point however is that China specifically isn’t using military power anywhere around the world. Their projection of soft power is via the Belt and Road Initiative which will provide the 3rd world with critical infrastructure rather than the US projection of power being bombing and government overthrows delivered by the US military and CIA. China has not fired a shot outside of it’s borders since 1988, whereas the supposedly peace loving Americans are bombing non stop (it got to the point where even under the supposedly more peaceful Obama administration the US military temporarily ran out of bombs).

The Chinese saw how American shot itself in the foot with their disastrous wars of the last 20 years. I believe a lot of the current social and politics ills of American were caused by their early 21st century warmongering, and now they are reaping what they sow at home. China was smart enough to observe this and realise trying to conquer the world via military invasions is a fool’s errand, and instead concentrated on projecting their soft power via peaceful infrastructure building, innovation and negotiating.

There’s a reason why China has one external military base compared to the 800 of the Americans.
 
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Re: Can we prevent the next war?

Wed Jul 08, 2020 6:54 am

sierrakilo44 wrote:
c933103 wrote:
And I am trying to present you a more complete comparison by extending the scale


Why not extend it even further back? The UK did a lot of evil things in the 17th and 18th centuries, colonising poor third world countries and doing horrible things in them (the killings of indigenous Australians for example, over 100,000 killed).

What you're suggesting is that, because of European conquest of America, it's wrong for them to defeat the Nazi?

You can even trace some of present day China’s motivations and actions as a response to their treatment by the British in the 1800s. The flooding of China with drugs, the Opium Wars, the seizure of Hong Kong, the burning and looting of the Summer Palace in Beijing in 1860 and the Boxer Rebellion when the UK (and other nations) occupied Beijing, plundered Chinese money and summarily executed Chinese peasants.
Who's problem was it that China couldn't play by rules and also couldn't fight a war yet still try to beat all the foreigners in its territory and treat foreigners unequally using means like segregation and isolation, and then end up being held accountable by foreign military?

It’s part of the “century of humiliation” that the British have forgotten about but the Chinese strongly remember, and is burned into their national psyche to this day.

Of course British people would have forgotten about it already, because that's a self-victimization process to justify how they should "fight back" against other countries, much like some countries who have started the WWII

sierrakilo44 wrote:
The point however is that China specifically isn’t using military power anywhere around the world.

LOL yes I guess as long as they call it "armed police" instead of military when using them in South China Sea, East China Sea, and Xinjiang, they don't count as using military power in your book?
It's pointless to attempt winning internet debate.
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Re: Can we prevent the next war?

Wed Jul 08, 2020 12:07 pm

c933103 wrote:
Of course British people would have forgotten about it already, because that's a self-victimization process to justify how they should "fight back" against other countries, much like some countries who have started the WWII


No I think that the British forgot because they were never told to remember it. I doubt whether many Britons today would be aware of what their country did in their colonies all over the world. It isn't "self victimisation", look at what how the Brits flooded China with opium deliberately and the Japanese slaughtered civilians in Nanking. China was the victim. Lots of nations are allowed to have historical events that occured long ago dictate their current actions. Israel basically bases all their actions on historical grievances. TheUS can't shut up about their founding fathers and constitution and Civil War grievances are still political issues today. But China isn't allowed to? They can claim whatever motivation for their actions as they want.

LOL yes I guess as long as they call it "armed police" instead of military when using them in South China Sea, East China Sea, and Xinjiang, they don't count as using military power in your book?


Remind me when any of those forces have fired a shot recently at another nation in the Seas? And Xinjiang was an operation against Islamic Extremists, seems to be more effective than America's blundering war crimes in the Middle East.
 
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Re: Can we prevent the next war?

Wed Jul 08, 2020 2:57 pm

sierrakilo44 wrote:
No I think that the British forgot because they were never told to remember it. I doubt whether many Britons today would be aware of what their country did in their colonies all over the world. It isn't "self victimisation", look at what how the Brits flooded China with opium deliberately and the Japanese slaughtered civilians in Nanking. China was the victim. Lots of nations are allowed to have historical events that occured long ago dictate their current actions. Israel basically bases all their actions on historical grievances. TheUS can't shut up about their founding fathers and constitution and Civil War grievances are still political issues today. But China isn't allowed to? They can claim whatever motivation for their actions as they want.

Britain didn't colonize mainland China.
British colonized Hong Kong and that lead to a better result than rest of China,
Japanese army action were not controlled by Britain.
Slaughtering of civilian in China by Japanese army is backward, but that's commonplace in Chinese history, like in the conquest of Yuan and Qing.
Israel and United States are using history as their principle, to protect their own land and to promote freedom in respective case, and you can tell the United States principle is good while Israel's is debatable, and then what about China? To restore its glory as an Imperialistic empire?

Remind me when any of those forces have fired a shot recently at another nation in the Seas? And Xinjiang was an operation against Islamic Extremists, seems to be more effective than America's blundering war crimes in the Middle East.

Sure, when you only pick soft spots like fishing boats of other countries or Islamic civilian, you don't have to worry that much about failure
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Re: Can we prevent the next war?

Fri Jul 10, 2020 5:30 am

anrec80 wrote:
c933103 wrote:
I think you didn't realize the world history isn't in sync. In China nowadays, what they valuate is stability of their own control on their country. If military invasion and control of a foreign territory mean that then that is what they would do.


Let's say that not many wars help stability in their respective countries. A quick and victorious one, without much tension on society - those can. But when it drags on - that doesn't work.

Yes but most people in the world aren't long term thinkers
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Re: Can we prevent the next war?

Tue Jul 14, 2020 4:01 pm

Next war has started. Or is it war of the month ? https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-53402476
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