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olle
Posts: 2241
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Re: Brexit Part IX: Final rush to No Deal

Sat Jul 18, 2020 1:38 pm

[*]
frmrCapCadet wrote:
And all NI children have the option growing up for an ROI passport, hence all of the opportunities of the EU. I suspect that will be a rite of passage - a job in Europe for a while - summertime for college kids, ski bum in the Alps, whatever. They probably will find the ROI equally hospitable.



How is pro uk ni citizen acts like protestants? Do they request ROI passports in the same numbers like pro ROI catholics?

Can this effect ROI politics and elections?
 
olle
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Re: Brexit Part IX: Final rush to No Deal

Sat Jul 18, 2020 1:54 pm

the fun part of the Johnsson signed WA is that it is very close to one of the original EU suggestions. Ms may succeded to force EU and ROI to accept DUP requests.

Suddenly DUP is thrown under the bus for the greater brexiteer picture, mr johnsson declares an other brexiteer victory by making EU accepting their own prefeered solution.

Now brexiteers consider that EU, NI catholics and ROI fooled them.

If i was a.brexiteer I should stop mr davis style of understanding problems like a religious man or die hard communist and start to understand history, facts, the standpoint of opposition etc.

Is it too much to ask for?
 
frmrCapCadet
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Re: Brexit Part IX: Final rush to No Deal

Sat Jul 18, 2020 4:20 pm

Another question: will people in England etc be able to establish residence in NI, and thence onto ROI citizenship and a passport. And the other way around, residents in ROI switch to NI, thence onto England? There may be years of residence requirements to all of this, but it could create a moderately porous border.
Buffet: the airline business...has eaten up capital...like..no other (business)
 
olle
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Re: Brexit Part IX: Final rush to No Deal

Sat Jul 18, 2020 5:02 pm

frmrCapCadet wrote:
Another question: will people in England etc be able to establish residence in NI, and thence onto ROI citizenship and a passport. And the other way around, residents in ROI switch to NI, thence onto England? There may be years of residence requirements to all of this, but it could create a moderately porous border.



If yes, i expect NI to have more residents then greater london :-)

Perhaps a way to increase tax revenue?

I have seen articles about people in uk without EU passport getting excluded in job interviews. Is this a solution? All UK resident in NI?
 
A101
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Re: Brexit Part IX: Final rush to No Deal

Sat Jul 18, 2020 9:59 pm

AeroVega wrote:
A101 wrote:
Nope i would not be troubled about a customs border for goods


The WA will let the people of Northern Ireland decide where they want the customs border to be. Granted, it will be in the Irish see for a couple of years, but that is only because that is the best practical solution at the moment. If the Northern Irish want to move the customs border to the island then they can achieve that through democratic means in the future.


Yes, that is correct I’ve have shown that before.......... and that is one of the benefits that Johnson negotiated into the revised WA and is remarkably different from the one originally proposed by the EU, in which NI would remain as part of EU customs territory in perpetuity. The other benefit it removed the Irish backstop from the UK being in the EU CU/SM in perpetuity as well.
 
A101
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Re: Brexit Part IX: Final rush to No Deal

Sat Jul 18, 2020 10:16 pm

ElPistolero wrote:
A101 wrote:

Yes, I do know you are referring to me, but please get the context right.
I have said all along that if it were up to me I would have scrapped the entire WA and the only thing that would have been negotiated would have been the financial aspect of the divorce bill, and I have been very consistent in that message, it’s just you choose to ignore it as it doesn’t suit you’re narrative
But I do stand by what I said that the changes that were made to the WA are for the better to the UK.


But still unpalatable? As I recall, you also said the UK had a chance to scrap the whole thing after the GE. It didn’t.


My position on the WA as a whole has not changed, it’s something I would not even have tried to renegotiate as the are many aspects to it that are against UK interests. But that's easy for me to say i'm not the one in the hot seat.

As I recall it was you who 1st brought up the government had the choice to not ratified the WA after the GE and I agreed with you that they could have. But now you want to castigate Johnson for keeping his agreement with the EU :banghead:






ElPistolero wrote:

So, what’s the deal with all these prominent Brexiteers now demanding it be scrapped? How did this WA go from being acceptable a few months ago to unacceptable today?
Mission creep?
Dishonesty?



Well that’s something you have to ask them. But from where I am sitting, they are acting in the UK interests bring up some of the more unappealing aspects of the WA which could changed in the FTA such as Geographical Indicators

ElPistolero wrote:
A101 wrote:

We have been over the history before in regards to why we are at this point in the last thread no need to regurgitate it again.
But if the UK were to scrap the WA, I would be a very happy, but I know it’s not likely to happen.


We’re only here because prominent Brexiteers who previously supported the WA and celebrated it as proof positive that they could get the EU to make concessions, are now demanding that the WA be scrapped because the EU won’t budge.
Yes, it really is as silly as it sounds. Can’t blame remainers for pointing and laughing at Longworth’s indignation.


Well to be honest I had a chuckle as well :laughing:

If you recall from the time from PM May’s resignation the EU held steadfastly that it would not reopen the WA as it believes an agreement had been reached between the EU & UK government at the time, even Jean-Claude Juncker also said the next Prime Minister will not be able to renegotiate Mrs May’s Brexit deal. but that position was never going to hold water as it did not comply with A50(1) under the TEU. And as the good Lord knows you cant show the EU in a bad light and do not want to look like the EU is not prepared to negotiate in good faith. :lol:

As I pointed out in an earlier post Johnson only had less than 3 months to renegotiate the WA under pressure from the Benn Act, and yes there was much joy that Johnson had removed the ominous and repressive yoke of the Irish Backstop. But as history shows the EU did in fact reopen the WA





ElPistolero wrote:
A101 wrote:

You also point to the Chinese and HK and compare it, but I don’t see the UK making repressive laws towards those who protest about Brexit and gaol them do you?


I point to the fact that a lack of respect for an international treaty is causing not a little anger in the UK, but that hasn’t stopped Brexiteers from advocating breaking a different one.


Apples and oranges comparison many people oppose different treaties for different reason in countries all around the world, calling from breaking an agreement is actually different from government doing it, in which China is actually doing.


ElPistolero wrote:
A101 wrote:

Rewriting history LOL she just leaves key events out of it.
I notice in it she fails to mention that Johnson had less than 3mths to renegotiate the WA he only became PM on 24 July 19( remember those assertions on this very forum that BJ would be the shortest serving PM in the history of the UK), all the while the EU steadfastly refused that they would reopen it, he also had a very pro remain speaker of the house as well as a majority pro remain Parliament and that he either renegotiate the WA by the 31 October 19 or face the Benn Act, the time frame was not his choice his only extension was the one forced on him by the Benn Act
The European Union (Withdrawal) (No. 2) Act 2019 (Benn Act) which was passed on the 4th September had left left Government at the mercy of Parliment on wether to accept a no deal exit in which we all know that that House would not have approved it and most likely lead to revoke A50
The renegotiated WA was agree on the 17th October19 , Johnson became PM on the 24th July. The surrender Act (Benn Act) really forced Johnson’s hand no one could have renegotiated a complete New WA in less than 3mths mission impossible
PM May started negotiations on 19 June 17 and signed off on her deal on the 14 November 2018 17mths
Maybe she should not talk about re-writing history when she does it herself


It is still patently absurd to hold anyone other than Johnson responsible for signing the WA deal. He could have walked away. He didn’t. Instead he - and many Brexiteers - treated it as a victory. As was his prerogative.
The evolving acceptability of the WA to Brexiteers is a function of their cognitive and/or intellectual capabilities, not a function of the actual WA or how it came into being.
I’m going to flog this dead horse some more: the circumstances surrounding how the WA came into being only mattered when the PM was considering putting pen to paper.
Once the UK committed pen to paper, all of those ordinary or extraordinary circumstances ceased to matter.
That decision to commit pen to paper was cheered by Brexiteers. Brexiteers own whatever follows. All of it.


Yes, it was a small victory but your overall premises are misleading. You want to leave out the role of a hostile Parliament that was piling on the pressure to Johnson Government to fail and further rise to their own political party ambitions to form government.

Johnson was more than clear that the entire WA was a bad deal for the UK and that Benn Act and the short time frame had forced him to pick and choose his battles and to prioritize what aspects within the WA that needed to change. Not much point to fighting GI’s if you are going to be stuck in CU/SM in perpetuity now is it.

Putting pen to paper as you put it after the GE also had implications. Johnson had two choices ratify the WA in its present form and try to fix the other defects within the WA through the FTA or no deal trade on WTO terms in the immediate future. It has always has been the position of the Johnson Government to get a fair and equitable FTA with the EU but on the provision if it could not then no deal is better than a bad deal.
 
A101
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Re: Brexit Part IX: Final rush to No Deal

Sat Jul 18, 2020 10:21 pm

ElPistolero wrote:
A101 wrote:
JJJ wrote:


It’s just one aspect of regaining sovereignty, and a price worth paying until Northern Ireland get serious and petition for a border poll under the GFA


Lol - I guess we all agree that a price that English Brexiteers don’t have to pay, is a price they think is worth paying.

English Brexiteers really don’t respect other UK citizens, do they?


I think you need to fix the quotations in the post and attribute them to the right person

LOL; really Remainers were complaining about money being spent on new border control point at Ashford not long ago

Remember that old idiom......... what's good for the goose is good for the gander
 
A101
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Re: Brexit Part IX: Final rush to No Deal

Sat Jul 18, 2020 10:30 pm

olle wrote:
the fun part of the Johnsson signed WA is that it is very close to one of the original EU suggestions. Ms may succeded to force EU and ROI to accept DUP requests.

Suddenly DUP is thrown under the bus for the greater brexiteer picture, mr johnsson declares an other brexiteer victory by making EU accepting their own prefeered solution.

Now brexiteers consider that EU, NI catholics and ROI fooled them.

If i was a.brexiteer I should stop mr davis style of understanding problems like a religious man or die hard communist and start to understand history, facts, the standpoint of opposition etc.

Is it too much to ask for?



Well it does go to show how bad a deal it was with even pro remain Parliament were opposed to it, even they could not stand the thought of being in the EU in perpetuity, even though the agreement did infringe on Parliamentary Sovereignty in that a no parliament cannot bind its successors.
 
olle
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Re: Brexit Part IX: Final rush to No Deal

Sun Jul 19, 2020 8:06 am

I would like to remind us that the alternative was notbto get what the brexit england wanted but to walk away.

To walk away in practise would not have triggered the project fear as been discussed here but probably elections both in Scotland and NI to leave uk.

I also would like to remind brexiteer england that brexit is yesterday news. In EU right now all are concentrated on other matters worth putting the effort into.
 
A101
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Re: Brexit Part IX: Final rush to No Deal

Sun Jul 19, 2020 6:06 pm

olle wrote:
I would like to remind us that the alternative was notbto get what the brexit england wanted but to walk away.

To walk away in practise would not have triggered the project fear as been discussed here but probably elections both in Scotland and NI to leave uk.

I also would like to remind brexiteer england that brexit is yesterday news. In EU right now all are concentrated on other matters worth putting the effort into.



Can you clarify what the alternative was as I’m a little confused with what you are trying to say.

Alternative to A50?
 
Arion640
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Re: Brexit Part IX: Final rush to No Deal

Tue Jul 21, 2020 8:26 am

I see the Dutch PM is becoming the modern day David Cameron. Likes the idea of the EU in its current form, but keeps Merkel and Macrons power trip from getting out of control. Good on him.
 
LJ
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Re: Brexit Part IX: Final rush to No Deal

Tue Jul 21, 2020 9:58 am

Arion640 wrote:
I see the Dutch PM is becoming the modern day David Cameron. Likes the idea of the EU in its current form, but keeps Merkel and Macrons power trip from getting out of control. Good on him.


There are elections in The Netherlands next year and he wants to keep his high approval ratings he got during the COVID-19 crisis. Then again, he knows that the Dutch don't want to give money away. In that respect we'll probably miss the British, one partner less against Macron/Merkel
 
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Dutchy
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Re: Brexit Part IX: Final rush to No Deal

Tue Jul 21, 2020 11:17 am

Arion640 wrote:
I see the Dutch PM is becoming the modern day David Cameron. Likes the idea of the EU in its current form, but keeps Merkel and Macrons power trip from getting out of control. Good on him.


He got a good deal for the Netherlands, that's for sure. In the end, it is good for the EU to have this deal done so we can move on and ivest as a community into our future.
Many happy landings, greetings from The Netherlands!
 
JJJ
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Re: Brexit Part IX: Final rush to No Deal

Tue Jul 21, 2020 11:23 am

Arion640 wrote:
I see the Dutch PM is becoming the modern day David Cameron. Likes the idea of the EU in its current form, but keeps Merkel and Macrons power trip from getting out of control. Good on him.


The Dutch, Austrians, etc. have always played that role.
 
olle
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Re: Brexit Part IX: Final rush to No Deal

Tue Jul 21, 2020 11:45 am

LJ wrote:
Arion640 wrote:
I see the Dutch PM is becoming the modern day David Cameron. Likes the idea of the EU in its current form, but keeps Merkel and Macrons power trip from getting out of control. Good on him.


There are elections in The Netherlands next year and he wants to keep his high approval ratings he got during the COVID-19 crisis. Then again, he knows that the Dutch don't want to give money away. In that respect we'll probably miss the British, one partner less against Macron/Merkel


I have the sensation that this was a well played play between nordics and germany. Germany did not see Merkel dressed up as a nazi in south european newspapers, even brexiteers newspapers in UK did not know how to react.

Some interesting hints is that around a month ago suddenly the EU recovery fund was raised from 500 billion Euros (?) to now 750 billion. Political requirements of rule of law, and economical reforms added. I have a strong sensation that the frugal 4 was pretty much agreed with Merkel before how to play this game. Merkel would like the frugal four have equal problems to present this in next election without a nice show, and make both poland and hungary sweat a bit.
 
olle
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Re: Brexit Part IX: Final rush to No Deal

Tue Jul 21, 2020 12:53 pm

A101 wrote:
olle wrote:
I would like to remind us that the alternative was notbto get what the brexit england wanted but to walk away.

To walk away in practise would not have triggered the project fear as been discussed here but probably elections both in Scotland and NI to leave uk.

I also would like to remind brexiteer england that brexit is yesterday news. In EU right now all are concentrated on other matters worth putting the effort into.



Can you clarify what the alternative was as I’m a little confused with what you are trying to say.

Alternative to A50?


Sorry for that ;-) I realize that writing from a spanish beach with a cold beer has some disadvantages ;-)

What I meant was that Brexiteers presented first in the election everything from Norway model to walk away. But the real logic of Brexit was that they need us more then we need them. The logic then went on that why pay for something in both money efforts and sometimes accepting other peoples /nations will for the bigger picture, when UK could stop accepting this and anyway get all advantages special talking with the almighty Mrs Merkel.

But that happened after the win. The main strategy of brexiteers was to loose the election, becoming martyrs and ride on the brittish, read English national wave. Suddenly brexit was a fact and there was no brexiteers to be seen the next 72 hours.

After 72 hours the direct economically advantages that was going to make brexit UK into a country full of gold an honey, suddenly brexiteers started to talk about that brexit would give advantage in 2 generations time of 50 years.

Covid 19 is there fore the gift from heaven... Even if UK seems to be in free fall economically next year even worse then south europe of the combination of covid and brexit, only covid will take the blame.

By doing English brexit into a UK brexit I see that the breakup of UK within one generation is written on the wall. For NI, that weill like eastern germany have full citizen rights, better GDP per capita on the way compared to the current situation I see this as simple logic. If Scotland gets connected with ROI / NI with bridges the economical ties will grow even stronger after brexit, therefore the disadvante leaving UK will become smaller. And do not underestimate the Scottish nationalist agenda. I rembeber that in 2014 the nationalist agenda and English invasions in 17 and 18 century made BBC to delay TV serials presenting this like outlander.
 
olle
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Re: Brexit Part IX: Final rush to No Deal

Tue Jul 21, 2020 1:12 pm

JJJ wrote:
Arion640 wrote:
I see the Dutch PM is becoming the modern day David Cameron. Likes the idea of the EU in its current form, but keeps Merkel and Macrons power trip from getting out of control. Good on him.


The Dutch, Austrians, etc. have always played that role.


I think actually that for example sweden is quit happy with EU becoming more like a state.

1. we become oficial part of defence orginisation, that is not NATO.
2. Eastern europe need from Swedish point of view not be falling back to some 30s model of strong leader rule but becoming more liberal and have independent law structures.
3. Green deal must be funded. Sweden cannot do that ourself.
 
Olddog
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Re: Brexit Part IX: Final rush to No Deal

Tue Jul 21, 2020 2:06 pm

We will see what the EU parliament will say about that budget.
Sentence from Belgian PM at press conference forbidden due to new rules
 
AeroVega
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Re: Brexit Part IX: Final rush to No Deal

Tue Jul 21, 2020 4:10 pm

Guys, this is the Brexit thread. If you want to make any connection between the new EU budget and Brexit then I would say congratulations to the UK for not having to pay anymore for this nonsense.
 
Olddog
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Re: Brexit Part IX: Final rush to No Deal

Tue Jul 21, 2020 4:29 pm

It is totally related to Brexit and how the new budget will be without UK.

And as it is the first time the EU do that, it will be very interesting what the interest rate will be.
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SomebodyInTLS
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Re: Brexit Part IX: Final rush to No Deal

Tue Jul 21, 2020 6:51 pm

I'm sure there was plenty of hope here in the UK that things would go badly - certainly it was reported as being constantly on the brink of disaster, even though I knew it was just a tricky negotiation which would get solved after a while... Which of course it was.

No sign of EU imminent collapse - rather the opposite .. the member states have agreed closer cooperation and mutual support. The only fly in the ointment is putting curbs on undemocratic tendencies in Hungary and Poland on hold for now (it will certainly be addressed later).
"As with most things related to aircraft design, it's all about the trade-offs and much more nuanced than A.net likes to make out."
 
olle
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Re: Brexit Part IX: Final rush to No Deal

Tue Jul 21, 2020 8:19 pm

SomebodyInTLS wrote:
I'm sure there was plenty of hope here in the UK that things would go badly - certainly it was reported as being constantly on the brink of disaster, even though I knew it was just a tricky negotiation which would get solved after a while... Which of course it was.

No sign of EU imminent collapse - rather the opposite .. the member states have agreed closer cooperation and mutual support. The only fly in the ointment is putting curbs on undemocratic tendencies in Hungary and Poland on hold for now (it will certainly be addressed later).


Reading express there seems to be a EU country on the brink to leave every week and the whole weekend they have enjoyed the imminent breakdown of negotiations.

First Express had a story that Italy was disapointed that EU did not help them and will leave. Today they had a story by helping italy Northern europe is disapointed and will leave.
 
9Patch
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Re: Brexit Part IX: Final rush to No Deal

Wed Jul 22, 2020 5:26 pm

The chickens come home to roost.

Europe’s $3.5 Trillion Unity Rally Leaves Britain Far Behind

The differences between European and U.K. markets are looking starker than ever.


The pound has weakened this year, and FTSE 100 Index stocks are down 17% in 2020.


The euro is near the highest since early 2019, Germany’s DAX Index is almost positive for the year and the Stoxx Europe 600 Index has added $3.5 trillion in market value since the mid-March lows.


Money managers say the U.K. is a dangerous place to invest because of the impending cliff edge of a no-deal Brexit at the end of the year, when the transition period ends and tariffs potentially kick in. Negotiators for the U.K. and Europe say the chances of a deal being reached by the end of August are fading fast.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... far-behind
 
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Dutchy
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Re: Brexit Part IX: Final rush to No Deal

Wed Jul 22, 2020 8:19 pm

So another argument proved to be nonsense: EU needs the UK to fund itself.

Question: has there ever been an argument used by the Brexiteers in their campaign which was actually 100% true.
Many happy landings, greetings from The Netherlands!
 
olle
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Re: Brexit Part IX: Final rush to No Deal

Wed Jul 22, 2020 8:25 pm

A no deal seems tobe very real as most UK papers run story about UK about to walk away...
 
Olddog
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Re: Brexit Part IX: Final rush to No Deal

Thu Jul 23, 2020 5:01 am

olle wrote:
A no deal seems to be very real as most UK papers run story about UK about to walk away...


As it was the goal since the beginning unless the EU breaks itself to please the UK, no surprise at all.
Sentence from Belgian PM at press conference forbidden due to new rules
 
LJ
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Re: Brexit Part IX: Final rush to No Deal

Thu Jul 23, 2020 5:44 am

Dutchy wrote:
Question: has there ever been an argument used by the Brexiteers in their campaign which was actually 100% true.


Yes, they'll have full control as of January 1st 2021. Whether you agree or not, the UK does get full control over themselves and it's the only promise they materialize. The only question is how much is the UK willing to pay for being in control, but then, they're in control over themselves thus can decide to trade that in for money if they want to.However, I fear that giving up control for money/trade is a concept that not all Brexiteers want to, can, and/or will understand.
 
Olddog
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Re: Brexit Part IX: Final rush to No Deal

Thu Jul 23, 2020 5:49 am

Last edited by Olddog on Thu Jul 23, 2020 5:55 am, edited 1 time in total.
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LJ
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Re: Brexit Part IX: Final rush to No Deal

Thu Jul 23, 2020 5:52 am

olle wrote:
A no deal seems tobe very real as most UK papers run story about UK about to walk away...


It has always been a very real possibility. Those who thought not didn't do their homework. You do see that the UK media prepares the UK for a no-deal and (depending on the newspaper) shift the blame to the EU (why do they have such a nasty negotiator?).

However, we've also learned that nothing can be predicted and everything can change until the last minute. The only question is whether this will be too late as for many companies decision time is approaching and thus must decide which plan to implement.
 
Olddog
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Re: Brexit Part IX: Final rush to No Deal

Thu Jul 23, 2020 5:58 am

Internal questions in the EU can be negotiated until the last second. International matters can't as the ratification process takes months
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Dutchy
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Re: Brexit Part IX: Final rush to No Deal

Thu Jul 23, 2020 6:47 am

Olddog wrote:



Indeed, not even the promise of 100% control can be met. It is an illusion in itself anyway. No country on our earth is 100% independent of other countries. And with Nothern Ireland, well, it is certainly not something which can be claimed by the Brexiteers.
Many happy landings, greetings from The Netherlands!
 
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Dutchy
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Re: Brexit Part IX: Final rush to No Deal

Thu Jul 23, 2020 6:48 am

Olddog wrote:
Internal questions in the EU can be negotiated until the last second. International matters can't as the ratification process takes months


True, just another extension can be granted if the UK asks for it though. But then Johnson hasn't kept another promise regarding Brexit.
Many happy landings, greetings from The Netherlands!
 
olle
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Re: Brexit Part IX: Final rush to No Deal

Thu Jul 23, 2020 7:47 am

Dutchy wrote:
Olddog wrote:
Internal questions in the EU can be negotiated until the last second. International matters can't as the ratification process takes months


True, just another extension can be granted if the UK asks for it though. But then Johnson hasn't kept another promise regarding Brexit.


But this time extension need to be negotiated. What uk will need to pay, accept new laws on the way inside EU etc...

The deadline passed a few weeks ago.

I have a sensation that germany and ms merkel will not use her 6 month for that.
 
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scbriml
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Re: Brexit Part IX: Final rush to No Deal

Thu Jul 23, 2020 8:05 am

olle wrote:
A no deal seems tobe very real as most UK papers run story about UK about to walk away...


This is hardly surprising, since it's what the hard-core Brexiteers have been having wet dreams about since day one.

Meanwhile, we're just about to sign that easy trade deal with America. Oh wait...

https://www.cityam.com/uk-abandons-hope ... d-of-year/
The government has reportedly abandoned hopes of reaching a trade deal with the US by the end of the year, with officials blaming the pandemic for the lack of progress.
Time flies like an arrow. Fruit flies like a banana!
There are 10 types of people in the World - those that understand binary and those that don't.
 
Olddog
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Re: Brexit Part IX: Final rush to No Deal

Thu Jul 23, 2020 8:14 am

olle wrote:
The deadline passed a few weeks ago.

I have a sensation that germany and ms merkel will not use her 6 month for that.


There is no doubt about that.

Angela Merkel says EU ‘must prepare’ for no-deal Brexit

German chancellor warns progress in talks between UK and EU has been very limited.

The European Union must prepare for the possibility that negotiations with the United Kingdom won't secure a deal, German Chancellor Angela Merkel warned Wednesday.

“To put it mildly, progress in the negotiations has been very limited," Merkel told the German Bundestag, adding: "I will continue to press for a good solution. But we in the EU and also in Germany must and should prepare for the event that an agreement is not reached after all.”

Germany on Wednesday took over the rotating presidency of the Council of the EU, meaning that it will play an important role in coordinating the position of the EU27 countries and maintaining their unity during the final stage of negotiations with the U.K.
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Dutchy
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Re: Brexit Part IX: Final rush to No Deal

Thu Jul 23, 2020 10:24 am

scbriml wrote:
olle wrote:
A no deal seems tobe very real as most UK papers run story about UK about to walk away...


This is hardly surprising, since it's what the hard-core Brexiteers have been having wet dreams about since day one.


Perhaps some nuances: it is the variant of Brexit what the financial backers of the Brexiteers have the most to gain with.
Many happy landings, greetings from The Netherlands!
 
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Dutchy
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Re: Brexit Part IX: Final rush to No Deal

Thu Jul 23, 2020 10:28 am

olle wrote:
Dutchy wrote:
Olddog wrote:
Internal questions in the EU can be negotiated until the last second. International matters can't as the ratification process takes months


True, just another extension can be granted if the UK asks for it though. But then Johnson hasn't kept another promise regarding Brexit.


But this time extension need to be negotiated. What uk will need to pay, accept new laws on the way inside EU etc...

The deadline passed a few weeks ago.

I have a sensation that germany and ms merkel will not use her 6 month for that.


Oh no, the EU has other priorities than Brexit. But I think the deadline is quite flexible. If the UK wants a longer transition period, fine, these are the strings attached to that: implement EU regulation, pay their share of the burden etc. all without representation, but it can be done. Even without negotiations, no problem at all. But it needs to come from the UK side, the EU will not press on that matter. This is something that the United Kingdom has 100% control over.................... the question that is, not the reply of course.............
Many happy landings, greetings from The Netherlands!
 
olle
Posts: 2241
Joined: Tue Feb 06, 2007 3:38 am

Re: Brexit Part IX: Final rush to No Deal

Thu Jul 23, 2020 2:09 pm

Dutchy wrote:
olle wrote:
Dutchy wrote:

True, just another extension can be granted if the UK asks for it though. But then Johnson hasn't kept another promise regarding Brexit.


But this time extension need to be negotiated. What uk will need to pay, accept new laws on the way inside EU etc...

The deadline passed a few weeks ago.

I have a sensation that germany and ms merkel will not use her 6 month for that.


Oh no, the EU has other priorities than Brexit. But I think the deadline is quite flexible. If the UK wants a longer transition period, fine, these are the strings attached to that: implement EU regulation, pay their share of the burden etc. all without representation, but it can be done. Even without negotiations, no problem at all. But it needs to come from the UK side, the EU will not press on that matter. This is something that the United Kingdom has 100% control over.................... the question that is, not the reply of course.............


The current extension was simple to implement while uk had payments under the current budget defined. There is no such thing in the new 7 year budget.
 
olle
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Re: Brexit Part IX: Final rush to No Deal

Thu Jul 23, 2020 2:12 pm

i think it is time for any business relation UK EU to consider the outcome with highest probability is WTO from 2021.
 
frmrCapCadet
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Re: Brexit Part IX: Final rush to No Deal

Thu Jul 23, 2020 2:41 pm

The United States has deliberately neutered the WTO which no longer has the ability to settle disputes. Any member can do anything which seems right in their own eyes.
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Dutchy
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Re: Brexit Part IX: Final rush to No Deal

Thu Jul 23, 2020 5:16 pm

frmrCapCadet wrote:
The United States has deliberately neutered the WTO which no longer has the ability to settle disputes. Any member can do anything which seems right in their own eyes.


Trading on WTO terms was never a good idea anyway and now it even worse.
Many happy landings, greetings from The Netherlands!
 
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Dutchy
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Re: Brexit Part IX: Final rush to No Deal

Thu Jul 23, 2020 5:40 pm

According to Barnier:
Brexit trade deal is 'unlikely' by end of the year


and of course:

UK’s David Frost also warns of the prospect of no-deal but insists agreement can still be reached


and the analyses of the UK side remains:

“Over the past few weeks the UK has not shown the same level of engagement and readiness to find solutions respecting the EU fundamental principles and interests.”


Current main points of disagreement:
- the rights of European fleets in British waters
- ensuring neither side drives down regulatory standards (Brittain)
- ensuring neither side unfairly subsidize their businesses

But some progress has been made:
- the need for a single deal rather than multiple sectoral agreements (no Swiss model than)

So no-deal more and more likely.

olle wrote:
The current extension was simple to implement while the UK had payments under the current budget defined. There is no such thing in the new 7-year budget.


True, but then again, that could be easily solved, just a percentages of the GNP as others pay and give the other countries a cut. done. ;)
Many happy landings, greetings from The Netherlands!
 
olle
Posts: 2241
Joined: Tue Feb 06, 2007 3:38 am

Re: Brexit Part IX: Final rush to No Deal

Thu Jul 23, 2020 6:54 pm

Dutchy wrote:
According to Barnier:
Brexit trade deal is 'unlikely' by end of the year


and of course:

UK’s David Frost also warns of the prospect of no-deal but insists agreement can still be reached


and the analyses of the UK side remains:

“Over the past few weeks the UK has not shown the same level of engagement and readiness to find solutions respecting the EU fundamental principles and interests.”


Current main points of disagreement:
- the rights of European fleets in British waters
- ensuring neither side drives down regulatory standards (Brittain)
- ensuring neither side unfairly subsidize their businesses

But some progress has been made:
- the need for a single deal rather than multiple sectoral agreements (no Swiss model than)

So no-deal more and more likely.

olle wrote:
The current extension was simple to implement while the UK had payments under the current budget defined. There is no such thing in the new 7-year budget.


True, but then again, that could be easily solved, just a percentages of the GNP as others pay and give the other countries a cut. done. ;)


I think that coming back to UK offering payment of 1.08 % of (I think) its GDP, no rebates, to special treatments etc sound not in line with what any Brexit government could do without getting the ERG after them ;-)
 
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Dutchy
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Re: Brexit Part IX: Final rush to No Deal

Thu Jul 23, 2020 10:33 pm

olle wrote:
Dutchy wrote:
According to Barnier:
Brexit trade deal is 'unlikely' by end of the year


and of course:

UK’s David Frost also warns of the prospect of no-deal but insists agreement can still be reached


and the analyses of the UK side remains:

“Over the past few weeks the UK has not shown the same level of engagement and readiness to find solutions respecting the EU fundamental principles and interests.”


Current main points of disagreement:
- the rights of European fleets in British waters
- ensuring neither side drives down regulatory standards (Brittain)
- ensuring neither side unfairly subsidize their businesses

But some progress has been made:
- the need for a single deal rather than multiple sectoral agreements (no Swiss model than)

So no-deal more and more likely.

olle wrote:
The current extension was simple to implement while the UK had payments under the current budget defined. There is no such thing in the new 7-year budget.


True, but then again, that could be easily solved, just a percentages of the GNP as others pay and give the other countries a cut. done. ;)


I think that coming back to UK offering payment of 1.08 % of (I think) its GDP, no rebates, to special treatments etc sound not in line with what any Brexit government could do without getting the ERG after them ;-)


Sure, I do not think there is a change an extention will be asked for anyhow. But it could be done if needed.
Many happy landings, greetings from The Netherlands!
 
olle
Posts: 2241
Joined: Tue Feb 06, 2007 3:38 am

Re: Brexit Part IX: Final rush to No Deal

Thu Jul 23, 2020 11:19 pm

so we have 5 month to go.

We can assume No Deal as main scenario. Even Mr Barnier says so even if Mr Frost do not want to use that kind of wording.

Why do Mr Frost and Mr Johnsson avoid the "No Deal" wordings when they otherwise seems to present to Express and other UK tabloids that "No Deal" is to be preferred?

What do we miss? Do London financial district tells them that it might not be so smart after all and they might not pay as much to the Tories?

How will the "red wall" that voted Mr Johnsson into power to secure a deal and save their jobs react to this?
 
steveinbc
Posts: 321
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Re: Brexit Part IX: Final rush to No Deal

Fri Jul 24, 2020 4:29 am

The whole rationale for Brexit is encapsulated in this final few months of 'negotiations ". It's no surprise to me that the EU wants to preserve the more socialist and regulatory stance while the UK prefers a more market driven and competitive stance. Fundamentally the two can never meet unless there's a focus on mutual benefits. The EU exports more to the U.K. Than vice versa hence economically free trade benefits the EU. The UK doesn't want to have unfettered movement of people across borders but has agreed to "grandfathering" those already there ...so quite reasonable . Most "standards" imposed by the EU are a crock of shit. Does anyone believe that US or Canadian or Singapore standards are inferior? Different yes but inferior? So thes. An be resolved. The Irish issue is a red herring and used to exploit the Achilles heel of the UK. This is disengenuous. Almost every major European country has their own "troublesome" part....Spain with Catalan and Basque, France with Corsica and Alsace, Italy with Sardinia and the "north south" divide, I won't even mention Belgium!! There's no advantage to either party asking for everything in the status quo. Brits want economic freedom and control over citizenry and residency. Europe wants a supra national governance that provides economic and political stability. These highest level needs are compatible. It can be done provided the politics of spite don't prevail
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LJ
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Re: Brexit Part IX: Final rush to No Deal

Fri Jul 24, 2020 5:13 am

steveinbc wrote:
The whole rationale for Brexit is encapsulated in this final few months of 'negotiations ". It's no surprise to me that the EU wants to preserve the more socialist and regulatory stance while the UK prefers a more market driven and competitive stance.


It remains to be seen if the UK really wants to be more market driven. One of the breaking points is state aid, where the UK wants loser regulation in order to help their business. This cannot be seen as "market driven" but is even more protectionist than the EU.

steveinbc wrote:
The EU exports more to the U.K. Than vice versa hence economically free trade benefits the EU.


Not if the UK needs the products because it doesn't produce them themselves. The majority of the components used in the UK car industry come from the EU. No trade = no components = no car industry (yeah I know, they can try to source from outside the EU, but what would that do to their cost price?).

steveinbc wrote:
. Most "standards" imposed by the EU are a crock of shit. Does anyone believe that US or Canadian or Singapore standards are inferior? Different yes but inferior?


The issue is not how EU standards compare to the rest of the world (which are pretty high and usually for a good reason), but the fact that the UK already implied it will lower its standards to compete with the EU. Why would the EU allow that. If you can compete only by lowering the standards, I can understand why there will be no FTA as this is not what EU citizens (and especially the lobby groups of certain economic sectors) want. It's telling that Canada didn't have any problem accepting this but the UK seems to have a problem with it. Moreover, agreements about level playing field are in all FTAs the EU concludes nowadays. Why would the EU make an exception for the UK?
 
bennett123
Posts: 9728
Joined: Sun Aug 15, 2004 12:49 am

Re: Brexit Part IX: Final rush to No Deal

Fri Jul 24, 2020 6:55 am

steveinbc

Given that the EU27 economy is somewhat larger than the UK economy, I suspect that EU27 exports are larger than UK exports as well.
 
olle
Posts: 2241
Joined: Tue Feb 06, 2007 3:38 am

Re: Brexit Part IX: Final rush to No Deal

Fri Jul 24, 2020 6:56 am

steveinbc wrote:
The whole rationale for Brexit is encapsulated in this final few months of 'negotiations ". It's no surprise to me that the EU wants to preserve the more socialist and regulatory stance while the UK prefers a more market driven and competitive stance. Fundamentally the two can never meet unless there's a focus on mutual benefits. The EU exports more to the U.K. Than vice versa hence economically free trade benefits the EU. The UK doesn't want to have unfettered movement of people across borders but has agreed to "grandfathering" those already there ...so quite reasonable . Most "standards" imposed by the EU are a crock of shit. Does anyone believe that US or Canadian or Singapore standards are inferior? Different yes but inferior? So thes. An be resolved. The Irish issue is a red herring and used to exploit the Achilles heel of the UK. This is disengenuous. Almost every major European country has their own "troublesome" part....Spain with Catalan and Basque, France with Corsica and Alsace, Italy with Sardinia and the "north south" divide, I won't even mention Belgium!! There's no advantage to either party asking for everything in the status quo. Brits want economic freedom and control over citizenry and residency. Europe wants a supra national governance that provides economic and political stability. These highest level needs are compatible. It can be done provided the politics of spite don't prevail



EU exports more products before services is included. Services often do not show as export but just currency balances. With services included generating a majir part of UK income things change.

Standards is like you say many are good. Butbtoday many countties around the world copies EU standard from CE, GDPR, V2X etc.

UK firms will go from being automatic accepted to prove that they comply like other producers do for a cost. SM with 450 million people speaks.
 
olle
Posts: 2241
Joined: Tue Feb 06, 2007 3:38 am

Re: Brexit Part IX: Final rush to No Deal

Fri Jul 24, 2020 5:49 pm

What countries do UK sign FTA with during 2021 and on what terms?

USA seems to be out.

Japan says uk need to sign this month on japan terms.

EU out of the window.

What countries will a global uk do business with that will create the global brittain?

Can someone explain what global brittain means?
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