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SomebodyInTLS
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Re: Brexit Part IX: Final rush to No Deal

Sat Aug 29, 2020 11:02 am

Ertro wrote:
A long time I was baffled how the brexiteers could be content in the situation that no brexiteer had made any plans and describe eg. in some book how the life after brexit would go and what the specific improvements from brexit would be. Until it dawned on me that these plans are also exactly what the brexiteers do not want. If somebody makes plans those represent control that they personally don't have and they feel more in control whenever nobody else has any control.


Wow... I think you might have hit it on the head there!

It certainly explains the inexplicable behaviour which keeps baffling a smug remainer like me.
 
94717
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Re: Brexit Part IX: Final rush to No Deal

Sat Aug 29, 2020 11:28 am

A101 wrote:
LJ wrote:
JJJ wrote:

Definitely, but Marr was one of the toughest interviewers of SNP politicians during the referendum, and a Scot himself.

His change of tone has something to it.


Yes, but that's emotion. It's like Brexit, from an emotional point of view it makes a lot of sense, but not from a rational point of view. Unbundling Scotland from the UK takes more than unbundling the UK from the EU. Thus should Scotland want to become independent, it better takes much more time preparing for it than the UK with Brexit. It's funny that Brexiteers would argue for the union and its benefits, whilst supporting a similar move by the UK.



Not all EU pro leave supporters are against either NI or SCT leaving the UK, so it’s best not to tar everyone with the same brush


I supposed that the first leaving UK with huge local consequences will be NI. It will be simple in theory but move the NI problem to ROI.

What surprise me was that I always thought that Tory was very much for keeping UK intact. The last few years over and over again it seems like Brexit England do not care about if NI or Scotland leaves. That is probably something that people in NI and Scotland also recognize.
 
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Aesma
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Re: Brexit Part IX: Final rush to No Deal

Sat Aug 29, 2020 12:00 pm

par13del wrote:
Aesma wrote:
Leaving the UK while staying in the EU didn't make much sense though. Leaving the UK to get back into the EU is much more logical, especially if the UK continues on its path to self destruction.

Ok, I am lost with this one, did you write this correctly, in either one they are in the EU but out of the UK.


But in one (the question in the Indy ref) the UK is in the EU, in the other the UK is out. Which makes a difference for an independent Scotland. Now there would really need to be a border, for example, and keeping the Pound would be impossible. So independance is more difficult. But there would be more of a separation from the rest of the UK, and Scotland would be welcomed back into the EU.
 
A101
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Re: Brexit Part IX: Final rush to No Deal

Sat Aug 29, 2020 5:18 pm

olle wrote:
I supposed that the first leaving UK with huge local consequences will be NI. It will be simple in theory but move the NI problem to ROI.


How so is it moving the problem?

NI have had the mechanism to push for a border poll since the Belfast agreement was passed by both the UK/ROI, there has been no big groundswell to do so. If the UK was so intent of moving the problem it would have granted the poll way before signing off the WA and even then UKGov can’t guarantee the result either way, so the only one with the ability to move the problem are Northern Irelanders themselves, certainly the UKGov can’t do it.






olle wrote:
What surprise me was that I always thought that Tory was very much for keeping UK intact. The last few years over and over again it seems like Brexit England do not care about if NI or Scotland leaves. That is probably something that people in NI and Scotland also recognize.


Many people would prefer the Union remain intact but also recognise its ultimately up to each to its own if they want to split. Scotland will get its 2nd indyref it’s only a matter of when not if.

If the Scott’s want to go in that direction good luck to them
 
noviorbis77
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Re: Brexit Part IX: Final rush to No Deal

Sat Aug 29, 2020 6:43 pm

Aesma wrote:
noviorbis77 wrote:
Aesma wrote:

On the one hand not being stuck with a bad leader for too long is a good thing, however I don't understand how it doesn't lead to people clamoring for a new election, or alternatively, how the party that had such a bad leader can win again the next election, just by having replaced an unpopular leader.


He may step aside.

The Conservatives have a large majority there is no chance of a new election. 2024 will be the next GE in the UK.


Put enough people in the streets and you can get an election. Do you have control or not ?


We won’t see a coup in the UK.

The Conservatives are still polling at over 40%. The is no certainty they’d lose the next election.
 
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Aesma
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Re: Brexit Part IX: Final rush to No Deal

Sat Aug 29, 2020 11:56 pm

I'm not talking about a coup. Leaders can call elections when it's obvious they've lost the people's confidence.

BTW a poll today put Labour and the Tories neck and neck.
 
A101
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Re: Brexit Part IX: Final rush to No Deal

Sun Aug 30, 2020 12:46 am

Aesma wrote:
I'm not talking about a coup. Leaders can call elections when it's obvious they've lost the people's confidence.

BTW a poll today put Labour and the Tories neck and neck.


Generally if a party is in Government and the leader is on the nose they will change leaders, they are not stupid enough to call an election where they might lose power, why would anyone give up an 85 seat majority?

But then one has to look at Theresa May who totally miss read her chances

Its still a long way before the current Government has to call an election which has to happen by law under the 5 year fixed term act should be no later than December 2024 unless called earlier
 
94717
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Re: Brexit Part IX: Final rush to No Deal

Sun Aug 30, 2020 11:40 am

A101 wrote:
Aesma wrote:
I'm not talking about a coup. Leaders can call elections when it's obvious they've lost the people's confidence.

BTW a poll today put Labour and the Tories neck and neck.


Generally if a party is in Government and the leader is on the nose they will change leaders, they are not stupid enough to call an election where they might lose power, why would anyone give up an 85 seat majority?

But then one has to look at Theresa May who totally miss read her chances

Its still a long way before the current Government has to call an election which has to happen by law under the 5 year fixed term act should be no later than December 2024 unless called earlier


Labour biggest chance now is that time is running out of the Extended period until end of the year means disaster for communication between UK and the continent.

UK Brexit government need to show a brexit success and that fast.
 
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par13del
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Re: Brexit Part IX: Final rush to No Deal

Sun Aug 30, 2020 2:19 pm

olle wrote:
Labour biggest chance now is that time is running out of the Extended period until end of the year means disaster for communication between UK and the continent.
.

Chance at what, they do not have much power to delay things in parliament, the Lords is totally on their side but in theory, they do not have that much power.
Every people vote and party platform since the referendum has been grounded in respecting the results, multiple times. I could always be wrong, but so far, despite all the talk, evidence put forth of lies, misleading statistics, illegal funding, all of which came to light immediately after the first vote, it did not sway the public.
I have to say the UK appears to be an outlier, every other time re-votes on the EU were performed the results were switched, thankfully, laws were changed and acts of parliament will now hold sway.
 
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Aesma
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Re: Brexit Part IX: Final rush to No Deal

Sun Aug 30, 2020 3:10 pm

 
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par13del
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Re: Brexit Part IX: Final rush to No Deal

Sun Aug 30, 2020 3:19 pm

Aesma wrote:

Yep, we had such similar polls in 2016 also, hence the reason why I spoke about the actual votes.

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-eu ... m-36271589
 
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Aesma
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Re: Brexit Part IX: Final rush to No Deal

Sun Aug 30, 2020 3:24 pm

Well many people believed too much in the polls and didn't vote. If there was a new vote that wouldn't happen.
 
A101
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Re: Brexit Part IX: Final rush to No Deal

Sun Aug 30, 2020 4:53 pm

Aesma wrote:
Well many people believed too much in the polls and didn't vote. If there was a new vote that wouldn't happen.



Voter turnout in what the referenda or the GE?

Referenda 72.2%
2019 GE 67.3%
2017 GE 68.8%
2015 GE 66.2%
2010 GE 65.1%


The referenda has a higher turnout than the average GE over the last couple of elections cycles with and the average turn since the 79 GE being around 63.44%

I think you’re argument falls flat when looking at statics of voter turnout
 
A101
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Re: Brexit Part IX: Final rush to No Deal

Sun Aug 30, 2020 4:56 pm

olle wrote:
A101 wrote:
Aesma wrote:
I'm not talking about a coup. Leaders can call elections when it's obvious they've lost the people's confidence.

BTW a poll today put Labour and the Tories neck and neck.


Generally if a party is in Government and the leader is on the nose they will change leaders, they are not stupid enough to call an election where they might lose power, why would anyone give up an 85 seat majority?

But then one has to look at Theresa May who totally miss read her chances

Its still a long way before the current Government has to call an election which has to happen by law under the 5 year fixed term act should be no later than December 2024 unless called earlier


Labour biggest chance now is that time is running out of the Extended period until end of the year means disaster for communication between UK and the continent.

UK Brexit government need to show a brexit success and that fast.


They have 4 years to turn the economy around and that will also be based on how well we are fairing compared to other nations post corna recovery

I’m putting my money on a change of leader by mid next year but who is the £64000 question
 
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Aesma
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Re: Brexit Part IX: Final rush to No Deal

Sun Aug 30, 2020 5:07 pm

There doesn't need to be much change in participation to change the end result. Especially since some older people have died and been replaced by young electors.

But that's all theoretical anyway, as there won't be a referendum anytime soon, and rejoining would actually be difficult and not the same thing at all than not leaving. I can see my country, France, making it very difficult, for example.
 
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par13del
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Re: Brexit Part IX: Final rush to No Deal

Sun Aug 30, 2020 5:15 pm

Aesma wrote:
Well many people believed too much in the polls and didn't vote. If there was a new vote that wouldn't happen.

They had 1 referendum and 2 general elections, how much motivation did they need after the first vote?
I have long since accepted that the people want Brexit, they may have been fooled the first time but not since, so this is what they want and I accept that.
Unfortunately, too many people involved in the process of separation (officials) appear to still believe that they want something else, so...we have the confusion we have.
 
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par13del
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Re: Brexit Part IX: Final rush to No Deal

Sun Aug 30, 2020 5:23 pm

Aesma wrote:
There doesn't need to be much change in participation to change the end result. Especially since some older people have died and been replaced by young electors.

As harsh as it is to say, no country in Europe did very well protecting their elderly population in this Covid pandemic including the UK, so the death rate is greatly accelerated from what would have been normal attrition. Unfortunately, based on the number of deaths, including among intellectuals who may mostly be remain, the dynamics may not have changed much.

In any event, no new elections will be held before year end and I do not think this parliament will vote for an extension, so in some form or another, Brexit will happen.
 
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Dutchy
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Re: Brexit Part IX: Final rush to No Deal

Sun Aug 30, 2020 9:35 pm

Aesma wrote:


Doesn't matter, there will be no referendum to rejoin for the UK in the next 10 years. Scotland and Northern Ireland are a different beast. I can see them rejoin in the next 5 years or so.
 
Klaus
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Re: Brexit Part IX: Final rush to No Deal

Tue Sep 01, 2020 12:10 am

A101 wrote:
LJ wrote:
JJJ wrote:
Apparently senior BBC journalist Andrew Marr thinks Scotland is only a few years away from breaking away from the Union.

https://www.thenational.scot/news/18682 ... nion-2024/

To be honest, if we've learned something over the past few years, it owuld be that no prediction has materialised so far. Personally, I doubt Scotland will leave the UK. Too much uncertainty for Scotland.

Remaining in the UK is actually the by far more unstable situation since Brexit. Accession to the EU would be a clear and stable perspective by comparison.

I agree, can a independent Scotland meet the requirements under article 49 of the TEU?

Yes. As with any other country there will be pains and a genuine effort needs to be made, but there is little doubt that Scotland would be able to make it.

And contrary to England, Scotland would indeed be able to reap the benefits of recent compliance because they would commit to retain and reaffirm that compliance instead of the vague threats of divergence coming from Westminster.

I imagine it would take at least 4-5 years unless the EU fast tracks admission for Scotland, central to that they are going to need a comprehensive economic policy and national currency.

A currency union between the UK and an independent Scotland would be a no go to difficult and actually might undermine the GBP that also means that the monetary policy would not be independent as it would come under the BOE. They can’t use the Euro as until they join they are outside of the Eurozone,

You're mistaken about that. Scotland could indeed use the Euro right away, just of course with no influence on the ECB before actual accession to the Eurozone.

Continuing to use GBP for the transition period should also be a viable option, even if more in a passive role than Scotland has so far.

Scottish lack of macroeconomics alone might prohibit the admission of Scotland for some time alone but the EU has helped the former Soviet nations with economic help in setting up policy they may do the same for Scotland.

There is no doubt and hardly any uncertainty about that.

Again: The UK (or what will be left of it) has a much more uncertain future than Scotland on its way back into the EU as a fully voting member.
 
A101
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Re: Brexit Part IX: Final rush to No Deal

Tue Sep 01, 2020 4:34 am

Klaus wrote:
Remaining in the UK is actually the by far more unstable situation since Brexit. Accession to the EU would be a clear and stable perspective by comparison.



I doubt that very much, the UK is not unstable nation it’s still attracting investment in its economy while it is reduced due to the coronavirus the UK is still expected to continue to grow irrespective if we have a trade agreement or not with the EU.


Klaus wrote:
Yes. As with any other country there will be pains and a genuine effort needs to be made, but there is little doubt that Scotland would be able



Of course accession to the EU is going to be clear as they must meet the requirements beforehand, getting the Scottish economy to meet those requirements are another thing altogether as the Scottish Government currently spend more than it raise in tax receipts. Once it becomes independent the top ups from London will finish as well as the Scottish Government will have to find more money for the basic things it didn’t have to budget for like EU membership fees defence spending et cetera

Klaus wrote:
And contrary to England, Scotland would indeed be able to reap the benefits of recent compliance because they would commit to retain and reaffirm that compliance instead of the vague threats of divergence coming from Westminster.



Well that all depends on what and where the UK has diverged from when Scotland become independent, they might have some laws that they like or not but will have to decide if repealing those laws whatever they maybe in the future maybe incompatible with EU membership is in their best interests.

I doubt everything is a given there is a faction in Scotland that want to be truly independent and that means from the UK and EU. 5-6 years is an eternity in politics

Klaus wrote:
You're mistaken about that. Scotland could indeed use the Euro right away, just of course with no influence on the ECB before actual accession to the Eurozone.


You sure?

I was my belief that to use the euro you have to be part of European Exchange Rate Mechanism and without a sovereign currency, you can’t to that.

Klaus wrote:
Continuing to use GBP for the transition period should also be a viable option, even if more in a passive role than Scotland has so far.



They could use a currency union, but that will come with a lot of caveat and the issue of sovereign debt sharing as well as the BOE having a say in Scottish affairs. Not very independent is it.

Klaus wrote:
Again: The UK (or what will be left of it) has a much more uncertain future than Scotland on its way back into the EU as a fully voting member.



Yes I imagine if Sturgeon is still the first minister or PM, she will be looking forward to being a net benefactor on the EU budget to keep her spending more than she earns.

But as I said a few posts ago, if that’s what’s Scotland votes for good luck to them
 
JJJ
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Re: Brexit Part IX: Final rush to No Deal

Tue Sep 01, 2020 6:25 am

A101 wrote:

Klaus wrote:
You're mistaken about that. Scotland could indeed use the Euro right away, just of course with no influence on the ECB before actual accession to the Eurozone.


You sure?

I was my belief that to use the euro you have to be part of European Exchange Rate Mechanism and without a sovereign currency, you can’t to that.


Other countries can use the euro or euro-pegged currencies without being in the mechanism (like Montenegro)

They just don't have a say in the euro policy and cannot mint currency. Much like the US dollar was unilaterally adopted as the official currency of Ecuador.
 
94717
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Re: Brexit Part IX: Final rush to No Deal

Tue Sep 01, 2020 9:23 am

Actually it is quit a few;


https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Internati ... f_the_euro

Unilateral adopters
Further information: Kosovo and the euro, Montenegro and the euro, and Currency substitution § Euro
State/Territory Adopted Seeking Notes Pop.
Kosovo[a] 1 January 2002[31] EU Membership[32] Potential candidate 1,700,000
Montenegro 1 January 2002[33] EU Membership[34] Candidate 684,736

Montenegro and Kosovo[a] have also used the euro since its launch, as they previously used the German mark rather than the Yugoslav dinar. Unlike the states above, they do not have a formal agreement with the EU to use the euro as their currency, and have never minted marks or euros; rather, they depend on bills and coins already in circulation.[35][36]

There were political concerns that Serbia could use the currency to destabilise these territories (Montenegro was then in a union with Serbia) so they received Western help in adopting and using the mark (though there was no restriction on the use of the dinar or any other currency). They switched to the euro when the mark was replaced. In North Kosovo, which is mainly populated by the Serbian minority, the Serbian dinar, which replaced the Yugoslav dinar, continues to be used[37] despite its lack of recognition or use elsewhere in Kosovo.

The use of the euro in Montenegro and Kosovo has helped stabilise their economies, and for this reason the adoption of the euro by small states has been encouraged by former Finance Commissioner Joaquín Almunia. Former European Central Bank president Jean-Claude Trichet has stated the ECB – which does not grant representation to those who unilaterally adopt the euro – neither supports nor deters those wishing to use the currency.

In October 2012, the President of Panama Ricardo Martinelli suggested that he was considering making the euro a third official currency of the country to go along with the US dollar and the Panamanian balboa.[38]
 
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Dutchy
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Re: Brexit Part IX: Final rush to No Deal

Tue Sep 01, 2020 9:46 am

A101 wrote:
Klaus wrote:
Remaining in the UK is actually the by far more unstable situation since Brexit. Accession to the EU would be a clear and stable perspective by comparison.



I doubt that very much, the UK is not unstable nation it’s still attracting investment in its economy while it is reduced due to the coronavirus the UK is still expected to continue to grow irrespective if we have a trade agreement or not with the EU.


No, not truly unstable compared to places like Syria, you are right. But nobody can deny that the United Kingdom isn't all that stable, Scotland and Northern Ireland might not be part of it anymore in a few years. And there is a lot of uncertainty in regards to trade agreements and thus economic climate. But the Brexiteers voted for change and change comes with uncertainty and businesses don't like uncertainties when it comes to investments. So Brexiteers voted to reduce the UK economic competitiveness certainly in the short term, the estamasted 200billion Pounds at years end.
 
A101
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Re: Brexit Part IX: Final rush to No Deal

Tue Sep 01, 2020 6:48 pm

Dutchy wrote:
A101 wrote:
Klaus wrote:
Remaining in the UK is actually the by far more unstable situation since Brexit. Accession to the EU would be a clear and stable perspective by comparison.



I doubt that very much, the UK is not unstable nation it’s still attracting investment in its economy while it is reduced due to the coronavirus the UK is still expected to continue to grow irrespective if we have a trade agreement or not with the EU.


No, not truly unstable compared to places like Syria, you are right. But nobody can deny that the United Kingdom isn't all that stable, Scotland and Northern Ireland might not be part of it anymore in a few years. And there is a lot of uncertainty in regards to trade agreements and thus economic climate. But the Brexiteers voted for change and change comes with uncertainty and businesses don't like uncertainties when it comes to investments. So Brexiteers voted to reduce the UK economic competitiveness certainly in the short term, the estamasted 200billion Pounds at years end.




Yeah, we are so broadly unstable that we have a net migration problem and people are still risking their lives crossing the channel to get to the UK

For the period ending March 2020, there were 430,000 NINo registrations to EU nationals and 326,000 to non-EU nationals.

Office for National Statistics, 27 August 2020


https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulation ... -over-time


There maybe uncertainty surrounding an agreement withtheEU but economists are still expecting growth in with or without a deal with the EU

Still peddling the myth on 200B GBP lol
 
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Dutchy
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Re: Brexit Part IX: Final rush to No Deal

Tue Sep 01, 2020 7:21 pm

A101 wrote:
There maybe uncertainty surrounding an agreement withtheEU but economists are still expecting growth in with or without a deal with the EU

Still peddling the myth on 200B GBP lol


You have your own reality, what was it again? Alternative facts. Anyhow, economists expecting economic growth, and economists have calculated the 200bn of missed GDP. I guess it is easier for you to believe economic projections when it fits your won narrative.
 
A101
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Re: Brexit Part IX: Final rush to No Deal

Wed Sep 02, 2020 1:03 am

Dutchy wrote:
A101 wrote:
There maybe uncertainty surrounding an agreement withtheEU but economists are still expecting growth in with or without a deal with the EU

Still peddling the myth on 200B GBP lol


You have your own reality, what was it again? Alternative facts. Anyhow, economists expecting economic growth, and economists have calculated the 200bn of missed GDP. I guess it is easier for you to believe economic projections when it fits your won narrative.



Not sure what realty or alternative facts you are talking about, but we have discussed this before and I have presented the facts that the 200B you refer to has been admitted by Bloomberg that it cannot be verified it does not exist, it’s Monopoly money

And for your information I haven’t said we will have growth just that economist have predicted growth for the UK irrespective of a trade agreement or not. Pre-covid many countries in the EU and around the world did not meet their forecast growth projections certainly France/ Germany didn’t,I suppose that’s Brexit fault too.

I’ve told you before over many times I take forecasts with a grain of salt as they are theoretical.
 
LJ
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Re: Brexit Part IX: Final rush to No Deal

Wed Sep 02, 2020 7:26 am

Dutchy wrote:
A101 wrote:
There maybe uncertainty surrounding an agreement withtheEU but economists are still expecting growth in with or without a deal with the EU

Still peddling the myth on 200B GBP lol


You have your own reality, what was it again? Alternative facts. Anyhow, economists expecting economic growth, and economists have calculated the 200bn of missed GDP. I guess it is easier for you to believe economic projections when it fits your won narrative.


If you've read the PwC report mentioned a few pages ago in this thread, then you would realize that the basis of economic growth in the UK is based on the demographics whereby Brexit is a big uncertainty. Moreover, given the low reference point (after COVID-19), it will be difficult not to grow ones economy.
 
bennett123
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Re: Brexit Part IX: Final rush to No Deal

Wed Sep 02, 2020 9:07 am

A101

One point that I do not follow is that you say that you take forecasts with a pinch of salt and then refer to a forecast that supports your point of view.

The other is that if you take forecasts with a pinch of salt are you saying that nothing about the future can be predicted. How can you or governments make plans.
 
Ertro
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Re: Brexit Part IX: Final rush to No Deal

Wed Sep 02, 2020 9:37 am

Maybe A101 could pinpoint which forecasts there exists to show growth.

I am only aware of 2 of such things where the UK-US trade deal could give 0.16% growth to BKT on long term and UK-japan trade deal could give 0.07% growth.

Both of these numbers are based on totally imaginary deal where the details are hoped to be what would be maximally optimistic to UK.
The reality is going to be something else so these numbers are going to be smaller.
Especially the UK-US trade deal number is based on comparing to old EU-US trade agreement situation without taking into account that EU and US just in the august 2020 negotiated an improvement to the EU-US trade agreements which UK is not going to be able to enjoy now that it is outside EU and certainly needs to work very hard if it even possible to match in its own UK-US trade negotiations. So it is totally possible that both of these numbers are actually negative.

The UK-EU trade numbers are certainly going to be negative and by a large amount.

So where are the positive numbers and do they represent economy as a whole or are they about some small insignificant detail?
 
A101
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Re: Brexit Part IX: Final rush to No Deal

Wed Sep 02, 2020 10:12 am

bennett123 wrote:
A101

One point that I do not follow is that you say that you take forecasts with a pinch of salt and then refer to a forecast that supports your point of view.

The other is that if you take forecasts with a pinch of salt are you saying that nothing about the future can be predicted. How can you or governments make plans.


My views on economic forecasts are that they are theoretical and not definitive, no one can predict with near certainty what the future brings, did anyone predict covid People can speculate all they want some gamble on that coming to fruition and make money and some don’t.

The point being is that economist do not always get it right, one just has to look at the batting average of the BOE in its forecasts with a fair amount being widely optimistic in its outlook, hence why I take forecast with a pinch of salt it’s theoretical use them as guide only not that the market will actully reach the forecast


https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2020/02/ ... searchers/
 
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Dutchy
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Re: Brexit Part IX: Final rush to No Deal

Wed Sep 02, 2020 10:37 am

A101 wrote:
bennett123 wrote:
A101

One point that I do not follow is that you say that you take forecasts with a pinch of salt and then refer to a forecast that supports your point of view.

The other is that if you take forecasts with a pinch of salt are you saying that nothing about the future can be predicted. How can you or governments make plans.


My views on economic forecasts are that they are theoretical and not definitive, no one can predict with near certainty what the future brings, did anyone predict covid People can speculate all they want some gamble on that coming to fruition and make money and some don’t.

The point being is that economist do not always get it right, one just has to look at the batting average of the BOE in its forecasts with a fair amount being widely optimistic in its outlook, hence why I take forecast with a pinch of salt it’s theoretical use them as guide only not that the market will actully reach the forecast


https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2020/02/ ... searchers/


All models should be used as models, real life is much more complicated. But they are usefull to see what the market most likely will do. So the exact amount doesn't matter, but the trend is. And Brexit is bad for the economy, everyone agrees on that. Thus, it is redicioulous to take only the money spend by the UK government on infrastructure and other things for Brexit as a standard of what Brexit actually cost. And that part you reject outright, and that is highly misleading at best.
 
LJ
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Re: Brexit Part IX: Final rush to No Deal

Wed Sep 02, 2020 11:23 am

Dutchy wrote:
All models should be used as models, real life is much more complicated. But they are usefull to see what the market most likely will do. So the exact amount doesn't matter, but the trend is. And Brexit is bad for the economy, everyone agrees on that. Thus, it is redicioulous to take only the money spend by the UK government on infrastructure and other things for Brexit as a standard of what Brexit actually cost. And that part you reject outright, and that is highly misleading at best.


To be honest, I would agree that economic impact of Brexit should not be counted towards the cost of Brexit as it's very difficult to attribute this to Brexit alone. Though there is certainly an economic impact, the main focus should be on direct costs such as 50,000 persons needed for processing customs declarations, increased overhead (due to staffing and housing of new departments and agencies) and the cost for the businesses due to longer lead times. Adding potential losses of GDP into the discussion just makes the argument against Brexit less stable as they can be attacked quite easily. Moreover, why debate an item when there are other costs much more visible? These costs alone are very high and one should ask if one would want this.
 
LJ
Posts: 5470
Joined: Wed Nov 17, 1999 8:28 pm

Re: Brexit Part IX: Final rush to No Deal

Wed Sep 02, 2020 11:26 am

Ertro wrote:
Maybe A101 could pinpoint which forecasts there exists to show growth.


I don't side with A101 often, but there is a PwC forecast which will show you that the UK will outperform many Western European countries in the coming years. we discussed this a few weeks ago if my memory deons't let me down. However, do note the assumptions in the model, but that's applicable for each model.
 
User avatar
Dutchy
Posts: 12848
Joined: Sat Nov 03, 2007 1:25 am

Re: Brexit Part IX: Final rush to No Deal

Wed Sep 02, 2020 12:39 pm

LJ wrote:
Dutchy wrote:
All models should be used as models, real life is much more complicated. But they are usefull to see what the market most likely will do. So the exact amount doesn't matter, but the trend is. And Brexit is bad for the economy, everyone agrees on that. Thus, it is redicioulous to take only the money spend by the UK government on infrastructure and other things for Brexit as a standard of what Brexit actually cost. And that part you reject outright, and that is highly misleading at best.


To be honest, I would agree that economic impact of Brexit should not be counted towards the cost of Brexit as it's very difficult to attribute this to Brexit alone. Though there is certainly an economic impact, the main focus should be on direct costs such as 50,000 persons needed for processing customs declarations, increased overhead (due to staffing and housing of new departments and agencies) and the cost for the businesses due to longer lead times. Adding potential losses of GDP into the discussion just makes the argument against Brexit less stable as they can be attacked quite easily. Moreover, why debate an item when there are other costs much more visible? These costs alone are very high and one should ask if one would want this.


The economic impact is the largest portion of the Brexit impact. Brexit was sold as a means to attract more prosperity for everyone. It doesn't.
 
bennett123
Posts: 10937
Joined: Sun Aug 15, 2004 12:49 am

Re: Brexit Part IX: Final rush to No Deal

Wed Sep 02, 2020 12:57 pm

Buck does A101 also take the PwC forecast with a pinch of salt.
 
94717
Posts: 2789
Joined: Tue Feb 06, 2007 3:38 am

Re: Brexit Part IX: Final rush to No Deal

Wed Sep 02, 2020 1:45 pm

bennett123 wrote:
Buck does A101 also take the PwC forecast with a pinch of salt.


It seems that it is a fact that before 2016 UK grew faster then G7. the last 2 years it seems like UK grows slower then G7.


Forecasts is of course complicated to do. PwC for example has not calculated of UK might have a financial sector that stop growing and a Vehicle industry close to be erased.
 
A101
Posts: 2713
Joined: Sun Dec 09, 2018 1:27 am

Re: Brexit Part IX: Final rush to No Deal

Thu Sep 03, 2020 2:07 am

olle wrote:
bennett123 wrote:
Buck does A101 also take the PwC forecast with a pinch of salt.





Forecasts is of course complicated to do. PwC for example has not calculated of UK might have a financial sector that stop growing and a Vehicle industry close to be erased.


That would come under implications of government policy and even then not all consequences will be known at the time. They would take a guesstimate on whatvthe Government may or may not do. But even so there best guess is continued growth on no trade agreement with the EU
 
art
Posts: 4410
Joined: Tue Feb 08, 2005 11:46 am

Re: Brexit Part IX: Final rush to No Deal

Thu Sep 03, 2020 12:03 pm

olle wrote:
It seems that it is a fact that before 2016 UK grew faster then G7. the last 2 years it seems like UK grows slower then G7.


After the EU stay/leave referendum I imagine that uncertainty stopped a lot of new investment in the UK. I think that was the main reason for the turnaround from doing better than other G7 members to doing worse.

olle wrote:
Forecasts is of course complicated to do. PwC for example has not calculated of UK might have a financial sector that stop growing and a Vehicle industry close to be erased.


What would happen in the UK if there were a 10% import tax on cars? Would UK consumers not switch to buying cars that were domestically produced, so tariff-free? I don't see most UK car plants shutting down in the near future.

UK car production 2003-2019 was 1.25-1.7 million vehicles per annum (2008 excepted)
https://www.statista.com/statistics/298 ... d-kingdom/

UK car sales 2003-2019 were about 1.9-2.6 million per annum
https://www.statista.com/statistics/299 ... d-kingdom/

In other words, there is more UK demand than supply so UK car plants could switch to supplying the UK market with little reduction in output (if any overall).
 
JJJ
Posts: 4127
Joined: Wed May 31, 2006 5:12 pm

Re: Brexit Part IX: Final rush to No Deal

Thu Sep 03, 2020 12:33 pm

art wrote:
UK car production 2003-2019 was 1.25-1.7 million vehicles per annum (2008 excepted)
https://www.statista.com/statistics/298 ... d-kingdom/

UK car sales 2003-2019 were about 1.9-2.6 million per annum
https://www.statista.com/statistics/299 ... d-kingdom/

In other words, there is more UK demand than supply so UK car plants could switch to supplying the UK market with little reduction in output (if any overall).


And where are most of those cars headed to?

Honda has already announced they are closing Swindon. Do you think Toyota will keep making Corollas out of Burnaston if Japanese Corollas can be imported tariff-free to the EU?

It's incredibly inefficient and costly to have one factory making many models in small batches. That idea just doesn't work.
 
LJ
Posts: 5470
Joined: Wed Nov 17, 1999 8:28 pm

Re: Brexit Part IX: Final rush to No Deal

Thu Sep 03, 2020 3:29 pm

art wrote:
What would happen in the UK if there were a 10% import tax on cars? Would UK consumers not switch to buying cars that were domestically produced, so tariff-free? I don't see most UK car plants shutting down in the near future..


What is the import tax rate for the parts which are needed to make a car in the UK (yes I know there will be a temporary scheme for tariff free import of many car parts, but that's only temporary)? If it's the 4.5% as qouted somewhere, this means that UK residents will pay more for their Nissan in a few years time (not to mention that selling the car to the EU will be impossible). AFAIK 80% of the parts assembled in UK car factories come from the remaining EU countries.

I agree, Sunderland will remain, but not with the same output as before. Given the EU - Japan trade agreement it comes down to shipping cost from Japan vs paying import tax on Nisaans from the UK. Whatever is cheaper, is what Nissan will do. If that means less cars produced at Sunderland, it will also mean higher manufacturing costs (overhead must be paid by less produced cars) -> higher car prices in the UK.

art wrote:
UK car production 2003-2019 was 1.25-1.7 million vehicles per annum (2008 excepted)
https://www.statista.com/statistics/298 ... d-kingdom/

UK car sales 2003-2019 were about 1.9-2.6 million per annum
https://www.statista.com/statistics/299 ... d-kingdom/

In other words, there is more UK demand than supply so UK car plants could switch to supplying the UK market with little reduction in output (if any overall).


Or better, the UK will be full of Nissans, Jaguars and Mini Coopers? Very good from an environmental point of view (and very good news for Nissan). Also note that your logic also doesn't take into account a possible FTA between the UK and Japan. If both would conclude a FTA, this will probably contain tariff free import of cars (as the EU - Japan FTA). Not very good news for the UK car industry.

BTW Out of 1.5mn cars produced in 2018, 1.2mn were exported. Thus next to changing fish eating habits, many Brits must also change their car buying habits if they want to support their local car industry.

https://www.autoexpress.co.uk/car-news/106291/foreign-made-cars-subject-to-10-import-tariffs-under-official-no-deal-brexit
 
A101
Posts: 2713
Joined: Sun Dec 09, 2018 1:27 am

Re: Brexit Part IX: Final rush to No Deal

Thu Sep 03, 2020 5:29 pm

I’m not saying it will happen as I’m not in that industry, but one also has to also take into account that a lot of components for cars built in Japan are sourced either domestically or from South Korea , we have an FTA with SK and soon maybe with Japan. Parts could in theory switch to these from continental Europe
 
art
Posts: 4410
Joined: Tue Feb 08, 2005 11:46 am

Re: Brexit Part IX: Final rush to No Deal

Thu Sep 03, 2020 6:35 pm

LJ wrote:
art wrote:
What would happen in the UK if there were a 10% import tax on cars? Would UK consumers not switch to buying cars that were domestically produced, so tariff-free? I don't see most UK car plants shutting down in the near future..


What is the import tax rate for the parts which are needed to make a car in the UK (yes I know there will be a temporary scheme for tariff free import of many car parts, but that's only temporary)? If it's the 4.5% as qouted somewhere, this means that UK residents will pay more for their Nissan in a few years time (not to mention that selling the car to the EU will be impossible). AFAIK 80% of the parts assembled in UK car factories come from the remaining EU countries.

I agree, Sunderland will remain, but not with the same output as before. Given the EU - Japan trade agreement it comes down to shipping cost from Japan vs paying import tax on Nisaans from the UK. Whatever is cheaper, is what Nissan will do. If that means less cars produced at Sunderland, it will also mean higher manufacturing costs (overhead must be paid by less produced cars) -> higher car prices in the UK.

art wrote:
UK car production 2003-2019 was 1.25-1.7 million vehicles per annum (2008 excepted)
https://www.statista.com/statistics/298 ... d-kingdom/

UK car sales 2003-2019 were about 1.9-2.6 million per annum
https://www.statista.com/statistics/299 ... d-kingdom/

In other words, there is more UK demand than supply so UK car plants could switch to supplying the UK market with little reduction in output (if any overall).


Or better, the UK will be full of Nissans, Jaguars and Mini Coopers? Very good from an environmental point of view (and very good news for Nissan). Also note that your logic also doesn't take into account a possible FTA between the UK and Japan. If both would conclude a FTA, this will probably contain tariff free import of cars (as the EU - Japan FTA). Not very good news for the UK car industry.

BTW Out of 1.5mn cars produced in 2018, 1.2mn were exported. Thus next to changing fish eating habits, many Brits must also change their car buying habits if they want to support their local car industry.

https://www.autoexpress.co.uk/car-news/106291/foreign-made-cars-subject-to-10-import-tariffs-under-official-no-deal-brexit


I confess that I am an advocate of free trade. Just for people who do not understand British irony, that does not mean I feel guilty that I hold such a view!

If EU car exports to the UK are badly hit by a lack of agreement over free trade in cars and similarly UK exports to the EU are badly hit, neither side gains. I hear in some of my continental correspondents' contributions that - sorry, a twist of an English expression - the wood does not matter but rather the trees. They do not seem to grasp that what matters is maintaining what is currently mutually beneficial. Free trade in cars between France, Spain, Portugal, Malta, Poland etc does not cease to be mutually beneficial if any of those is not a member of the EU. One should not focus on the trees - rules and regulations required for access to the protected EU market - but on the wood, the (known) benefits gained from free trade with each other. If one raises the argument that an agreement for free trade in cars has to be negotiated between EU and UK, I would say such a thing should only take seconds - the time to say "Why not continue in the way that has benefitted both of us for decades? What is there to discuss?"
 
ChrisKen
Posts: 1100
Joined: Tue Aug 05, 2008 11:15 pm

Re: Brexit Part IX: Final rush to No Deal

Thu Sep 03, 2020 6:46 pm

art wrote:
I would say such a thing should only take seconds - the time to say "Why not continue in the way that has benefitted both of us for decades? What is there to discuss?"

Brexiteers voted to end that way. Article 50 notification triggered the end of that way.
Of course many were/are still suffering the delusion they'd be able to continue operating that way while not adhering to the way that way works. They're under the delusion that because good ol' blighty says so, Johnny foreigner (EU) will willingly undermine the principles of that way.

Cue the many shocked cries of foul play from the brexitard delusionals.


They were sold 'unicorns' but failed to actually check the goods. The reality is they've bought a knackered old donkey with a traffic cone on it's head.
 
94717
Posts: 2789
Joined: Tue Feb 06, 2007 3:38 am

Re: Brexit Part IX: Final rush to No Deal

Thu Sep 03, 2020 7:46 pm

art wrote:
LJ wrote:
art wrote:
What would happen in the UK if there were a 10% import tax on cars? Would UK consumers not switch to buying cars that were domestically produced, so tariff-free? I don't see most UK car plants shutting down in the near future..


What is the import tax rate for the parts which are needed to make a car in the UK (yes I know there will be a temporary scheme for tariff free import of many car parts, but that's only temporary)? If it's the 4.5% as qouted somewhere, this means that UK residents will pay more for their Nissan in a few years time (not to mention that selling the car to the EU will be impossible). AFAIK 80% of the parts assembled in UK car factories come from the remaining EU countries.

I agree, Sunderland will remain, but not with the same output as before. Given the EU - Japan trade agreement it comes down to shipping cost from Japan vs paying import tax on Nisaans from the UK. Whatever is cheaper, is what Nissan will do. If that means less cars produced at Sunderland, it will also mean higher manufacturing costs (overhead must be paid by less produced cars) -> higher car prices in the UK.

art wrote:
UK car production 2003-2019 was 1.25-1.7 million vehicles per annum (2008 excepted)
https://www.statista.com/statistics/298 ... d-kingdom/

UK car sales 2003-2019 were about 1.9-2.6 million per annum
https://www.statista.com/statistics/299 ... d-kingdom/

In other words, there is more UK demand than supply so UK car plants could switch to supplying the UK market with little reduction in output (if any overall).


Or better, the UK will be full of Nissans, Jaguars and Mini Coopers? Very good from an environmental point of view (and very good news for Nissan). Also note that your logic also doesn't take into account a possible FTA between the UK and Japan. If both would conclude a FTA, this will probably contain tariff free import of cars (as the EU - Japan FTA). Not very good news for the UK car industry.

BTW Out of 1.5mn cars produced in 2018, 1.2mn were exported. Thus next to changing fish eating habits, many Brits must also change their car buying habits if they want to support their local car industry.

https://www.autoexpress.co.uk/car-news/106291/foreign-made-cars-subject-to-10-import-tariffs-under-official-no-deal-brexit


I confess that I am an advocate of free trade. Just for people who do not understand British irony, that does not mean I feel guilty that I hold such a view!

If EU car exports to the UK are badly hit by a lack of agreement over free trade in cars and similarly UK exports to the EU are badly hit, neither side gains. I hear in some of my continental correspondents' contributions that - sorry, a twist of an English expression - the wood does not matter but rather the trees. They do not seem to grasp that what matters is maintaining what is currently mutually beneficial. Free trade in cars between France, Spain, Portugal, Malta, Poland etc does not cease to be mutually beneficial if any of those is not a member of the EU. One should not focus on the trees - rules and regulations required for access to the protected EU market - but on the wood, the (known) benefits gained from free trade with each other. If one raises the argument that an agreement for free trade in cars has to be negotiated between EU and UK, I would say such a thing should only take seconds - the time to say "Why not continue in the way that has benefitted both of us for decades? What is there to discuss?"


You are in general right. It all comes down to efficient usage of industrial capacity.

Situation until 2016

EU - Japan Tariff and quota on cars. Japanese car manufactoring built industries inside EU (UK)

after Japan EU FTA

No tariff no quota Japan EU -> Now things coming down to usage of industries. As long as all Japanese car industries in Japan and EU (UK) all industries continues.

After UK leaves SM no deal -> UK EU tariff and quota. EU Japan no quota no tariff. It is cheaper for Japan to produce its cars in Japan and ship to EU then produce them in UK.

After UK leaves SM with FTA no tariff no quota -> it is up to capacity and reinvestment. If reinvestment is needed in Japan or UK the most efficient location will win. If capacity is needed in all industries all industries will continue to produce and being reinvested.

It seems like UK Japan FTA will be a copy of Japan EU FTA no quota no tariff. It means that Japan if UK EU get no deal need to define if it UK markets can exist support UK market only or UK and a decreased EU market while some Japanese cars might be shipped directly from Japan instead of from UK.

Right now we see that car industries all over the world has over capacity. If UK end up in no deal as it seems will that be an advantage?

For Volvo, Mercedes, BMW, Audi, VW selling to Japan no quota no tariff will that be advantage? I will say yes. I consider Japan EU FTA no quota no tariff sacrifices UK car manufacturing for EU brands like BMW, VW, Volvo, Audi and Mercedes.

EU sacrifices as mentioned an disadvantage with getting tariff and quotas to UK with 60 million consumer market by getting no quotas no tariff to Japan 120 million consumer market with higher GDP capita.
 
A101
Posts: 2713
Joined: Sun Dec 09, 2018 1:27 am

Re: Brexit Part IX: Final rush to No Deal

Thu Sep 03, 2020 9:06 pm

olle wrote:
art wrote:
LJ wrote:

What is the import tax rate for the parts which are needed to make a car in the UK (yes I know there will be a temporary scheme for tariff free import of many car parts, but that's only temporary)? If it's the 4.5% as qouted somewhere, this means that UK residents will pay more for their Nissan in a few years time (not to mention that selling the car to the EU will be impossible). AFAIK 80% of the parts assembled in UK car factories come from the remaining EU countries.

I agree, Sunderland will remain, but not with the same output as before. Given the EU - Japan trade agreement it comes down to shipping cost from Japan vs paying import tax on Nisaans from the UK. Whatever is cheaper, is what Nissan will do. If that means less cars produced at Sunderland, it will also mean higher manufacturing costs (overhead must be paid by less produced cars) -> higher car prices in the UK.



Or better, the UK will be full of Nissans, Jaguars and Mini Coopers? Very good from an environmental point of view (and very good news for Nissan). Also note that your logic also doesn't take into account a possible FTA between the UK and Japan. If both would conclude a FTA, this will probably contain tariff free import of cars (as the EU - Japan FTA). Not very good news for the UK car industry.

BTW Out of 1.5mn cars produced in 2018, 1.2mn were exported. Thus next to changing fish eating habits, many Brits must also change their car buying habits if they want to support their local car industry.

https://www.autoexpress.co.uk/car-news/106291/foreign-made-cars-subject-to-10-import-tariffs-under-official-no-deal-brexit


I confess that I am an advocate of free trade. Just for people who do not understand British irony, that does not mean I feel guilty that I hold such a view!

If EU car exports to the UK are badly hit by a lack of agreement over free trade in cars and similarly UK exports to the EU are badly hit, neither side gains. I hear in some of my continental correspondents' contributions that - sorry, a twist of an English expression - the wood does not matter but rather the trees. They do not seem to grasp that what matters is maintaining what is currently mutually beneficial. Free trade in cars between France, Spain, Portugal, Malta, Poland etc does not cease to be mutually beneficial if any of those is not a member of the EU. One should not focus on the trees - rules and regulations required for access to the protected EU market - but on the wood, the (known) benefits gained from free trade with each other. If one raises the argument that an agreement for free trade in cars has to be negotiated between EU and UK, I would say such a thing should only take seconds - the time to say "Why not continue in the way that has benefitted both of us for decades? What is there to discuss?"


You are in general right. It all comes down to efficient usage of industrial capacity.

Situation until 2016

EU - Japan Tariff and quota on cars. Japanese car manufactoring built industries inside EU (UK)

after Japan EU FTA

No tariff no quota Japan EU -> Now things coming down to usage of industries. As long as all Japanese car industries in Japan and EU (UK) all industries continues.

After UK leaves SM no deal -> UK EU tariff and quota. EU Japan no quota no tariff. It is cheaper for Japan to produce its cars in Japan and ship to EU then produce them in UK.

After UK leaves SM with FTA no tariff no quota -> it is up to capacity and reinvestment. If reinvestment is needed in Japan or UK the most efficient location will win. If capacity is needed in all industries all industries will continue to produce and being reinvested.

It seems like UK Japan FTA will be a copy of Japan EU FTA no quota no tariff. It means that Japan if UK EU get no deal need to define if it UK markets can exist support UK market only or UK and a decreased EU market while some Japanese cars might be shipped directly from Japan instead of from UK.

Right now we see that car industries all over the world has over capacity. If UK end up in no deal as it seems will that be an advantage?

For Volvo, Mercedes, BMW, Audi, VW selling to Japan no quota no tariff will that be advantage? I will say yes. I consider Japan EU FTA no quota no tariff sacrifices UK car manufacturing for EU brands like BMW, VW, Volvo, Audi and Mercedes.

EU sacrifices as mentioned an disadvantage with getting tariff and quotas to UK with 60 million consumer market by getting no quotas no tariff to Japan 120 million consumer market with higher GDP capita.


I think you will find that unless UK are exporting to nations other than the EU then UK car manufacturing was going to die on the alter due to the EU-JPN trade deal long term.

Investment will inevitably decline following the new models in the future due to technological changes. A case in point was the decision to close the smart electric car for Daimler with the Hambach plant up for sale and Ineos looking to buy it at one stage ( haven’t heard the outcome of that proposal yet)

In essence the short term car manufacturing in the UK is safe long term is another thing altogether just like plants across the world, it only takes a change of management which can change the fortunes of a manufacturing plant for better or worse
 
Klaus
Posts: 21638
Joined: Wed Jul 11, 2001 7:41 am

Re: Brexit Part IX: Final rush to No Deal

Thu Sep 03, 2020 10:40 pm

A101 wrote:
In essence the short term car manufacturing in the UK is safe long term is another thing altogether just like plants across the world, it only takes a change of management which can change the fortunes of a manufacturing plant for better or worse

Soo... you're trying to claim that a no-deal Brexit will make no difference whatsoever, even though there will be massive new trade impediments erected by it?

And all that while trying to keep a straight face? :hypnotized:
 
A101
Posts: 2713
Joined: Sun Dec 09, 2018 1:27 am

Re: Brexit Part IX: Final rush to No Deal

Fri Sep 04, 2020 1:11 am

Klaus wrote:
A101 wrote:
In essence the short term car manufacturing in the UK is safe long term is another thing altogether just like plants across the world, it only takes a change of management which can change the fortunes of a manufacturing plant for better or worse

Soo... you're trying to claim that a no-deal Brexit will make no difference whatsoever, even though there will be massive new trade impediments erected by it?

And all that while trying to keep a straight face? :hypnotized:


I haven’t claimed anything of the sort, look at what I wrote.

Of all the car manufacturing in the UK 20% is for the domestic market the other 80% are for exports.

The EU as a collective take about 52% the rest going to third nations.out of that 52% are brands that will most likely have no effect wether an additional tariff is applied or not as they are out of the realms of the ordinary car buying public stuff like the Bentley Mclarens Aston Martin Lotus &Carterham.

The rest are for the mums&Dads with Nissan’s Toyota’s Honda and so-forth , yes there may be an impact or not that will come down to price point if there is enough supply and demand for the product.

They may elect to put the prices up because demand outstrips supply or they may elect absorb the tariff impost to continue market share.

No one really knows at this point and won’t know until next year when we either have a deal or not, that is also going to apply to cars imported from the EU into the UK tariff and imports costs go both ways

One thing I did notice thou is in Australia both Ford and GMH ceased local production and GMH at least tried an imported commodore to replace the locally built car and sales of the commodore crashed to the point where GMH has exited the Australian market
 
LJ
Posts: 5470
Joined: Wed Nov 17, 1999 8:28 pm

Re: Brexit Part IX: Final rush to No Deal

Fri Sep 04, 2020 5:28 am

art wrote:
LJ wrote:
If one raises the argument that an agreement for free trade in cars has to be negotiated between EU and UK, I would say such a thing should only take seconds - the time to say "Why not continue in the way that has benefitted both of us for decades? What is there to discuss?"


One simple answer, when one party does not trust the other party to play by certain rules, and the other one does not want to commit to certain rules (state aid etc), one gets lengthy discussion about those rules. It the same as when children are playing a game. They first agree to a certain set of rules and then play. However, if they cannot agree, it can take a while until they play. Your assumption is correct if both parties don't care about the rules of the game. However, that's not what the EU member states want.
 
JJJ
Posts: 4127
Joined: Wed May 31, 2006 5:12 pm

Re: Brexit Part IX: Final rush to No Deal

Fri Sep 04, 2020 7:19 am

A101 wrote:
Klaus wrote:
A101 wrote:
In essence the short term car manufacturing in the UK is safe long term is another thing altogether just like plants across the world, it only takes a change of management which can change the fortunes of a manufacturing plant for better or worse

Soo... you're trying to claim that a no-deal Brexit will make no difference whatsoever, even though there will be massive new trade impediments erected by it?

And all that while trying to keep a straight face? :hypnotized:


I haven’t claimed anything of the sort, look at what I wrote.

Of all the car manufacturing in the UK 20% is for the domestic market the other 80% are for exports.

The EU as a collective take about 52% the rest going to third nations.out of that 52% are brands that will most likely have no effect wether an additional tariff is applied or not as they are out of the realms of the ordinary car buying public stuff like the Bentley Mclarens Aston Martin Lotus &Carterham.


Yes but what's the relative volume of one group vs the other?

There will always be some place for niche players of some sort that make ultra-luxury or ultra-sporty cars (not particularly profitable, but the niche is there), but the meat is in the mass market and just regular luxury segment.

Aston Martin as a whole has a turnover of about 1b, Sunderland produces 10 times that value in Nissans.

Bentley belongs to VW, Mini belongs to BMW, Aston Martin uses MB engines. Not that long ago no one thought that MGs would be anything other than British and there they are making cars as part of a Chinese conglomerate in China.
 
LJ
Posts: 5470
Joined: Wed Nov 17, 1999 8:28 pm

Re: Brexit Part IX: Final rush to No Deal

Fri Sep 04, 2020 8:22 pm

The EU has published the agenda for the 8th round ( 8 - 10 September). Odly no breakfast or dinner or any opening session before the negotiations (it was usually in the agenda). Horizontal arrangements and governance (AKA the bundling of the agreement and dispute resolution) is considered to need the most time (5 blocks)

https://ec.europa.eu/info/sites/info/files/brexit_files/info_site/20200904_r8_agenda_8-10_september_-_uk_version_3.pdf

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