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Dutchy
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Re: Brexit Part IX: Final rush to No Deal

Mon Oct 26, 2020 12:15 pm

Reinhardt wrote:
Now brexit is happening, it is indeed to late to stop it.


I mostly agree with. your post, but not to be pedantic Brexit has been done. Brittain is out. The future relationship is what is discussed now.
Many happy landings, greetings from The Netherlands!
 
olle
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Re: Brexit Part IX: Final rush to No Deal

Mon Oct 26, 2020 1:16 pm

Dutchy wrote:
Reinhardt wrote:
Now brexit is happening, it is indeed to late to stop it.


I mostly agree with. your post, but not to be pedantic Brexit has been done. Brittain is out. The future relationship is what is discussed now.



I think the important now is that with even a extremely basic deal not called no deal it will be much easier for the next governments and administrations to start from.
 
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Dutchy
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Re: Brexit Part IX: Final rush to No Deal

Mon Oct 26, 2020 1:52 pm

olle wrote:
Dutchy wrote:
Reinhardt wrote:
Now brexit is happening, it is indeed to late to stop it.


I mostly agree with. your post, but not to be pedantic Brexit has been done. Brittain is out. The future relationship is what is discussed now.



I think the important now is that with even a extremely basic deal not called no deal it will be much easier for the next governments and administrations to start from.


Sure, an extremely basic deal, is way better than no deal, for all. sorts of reasons. No deal is not really an option. Some rumors seem to suggest that Johnson is waiting for the election results in America. If Biden wins, then Johnson is expected to give in to the EU and there will be a reasonable deal that will take the edge of Brexit. If Trump gets his second term, then Johnson will likely go for a no-deal Brexit and align the UK with the USA. Pure speculation, of course, but it makes sense given the reaction from both candidates. If true, so much for sovereignty, which was a complete bull to begin with, but sure.
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Aesma
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Re: Brexit Part IX: Final rush to No Deal

Tue Oct 27, 2020 7:42 am

I'm not so sure it would be that easy though, for future governments to start with a basic deal in place. If you agree to disagree, then it's still a big climbdown to go back and ask for more. Also, the EU has made clear for years that it wants a whole encompassing deal, not many mini deals, because it's messy, like is shown by the relationship with Switzerland.

On the other hand if there is no deal, then BoJo and maybe even the Tories have to quit after a few months, and a new leader can call a spade a spade : Brexit was nonsense, we want to cancel it.
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sabenapilot
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Re: Brexit Part IX: Final rush to No Deal

Tue Oct 27, 2020 8:00 am

Dutchy wrote:
Some rumors seem to suggest that Johnson is waiting for the election results in America. If Biden wins, then Johnson is expected to give in to the EU and there will be a reasonable deal that will take the edge of Brexit. If Trump gets his second term, then Johnson will likely go for a no-deal Brexit and align the UK with the USA.


So in short: the UK is wating to see who becomes US president before deciding who's vassal state to become: the US or the EU?

Pathetic to say the least!

But probably the right perspective: this is indeed about the only sovereign choice a medium sized economy has in today's global world.
 
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Dutchy
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Re: Brexit Part IX: Final rush to No Deal

Tue Oct 27, 2020 11:24 am

Aesma wrote:
On the other hand if there is no deal, then BoJo and maybe even the Tories have to quit after a few months, and a new leader can call a spade a spade : Brexit was nonsense, we want to cancel it.


rejoin you mean? ;)

Even if the next parliament and government wanted to, it will be a long road and there will have to be quite a bit of humble pie to be consumed.
Many happy landings, greetings from The Netherlands!
 
olle
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Re: Brexit Part IX: Final rush to No Deal

Tue Oct 27, 2020 11:48 am

Aesma wrote:
I'm not so sure it would be that easy though, for future governments to start with a basic deal in place. If you agree to disagree, then it's still a big climbdown to go back and ask for more. Also, the EU has made clear for years that it wants a whole encompassing deal, not many mini deals, because it's messy, like is shown by the relationship with Switzerland.

On the other hand if there is no deal, then BoJo and maybe even the Tories have to quit after a few months, and a new leader can call a spade a spade : Brexit was nonsense, we want to cancel it.


EU will not accept many small deals in each and little terms.

What it might accept s something very basic that will be replaced if something bigger comes up.

I see for example non tariff, aviation etc.
 
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Dutchy
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Re: Brexit Part IX: Final rush to No Deal

Tue Oct 27, 2020 12:05 pm

olle wrote:
Aesma wrote:
I'm not so sure it would be that easy though, for future governments to start with a basic deal in place. If you agree to disagree, then it's still a big climbdown to go back and ask for more. Also, the EU has made clear for years that it wants a whole encompassing deal, not many mini deals, because it's messy, like is shown by the relationship with Switzerland.

On the other hand if there is no deal, then BoJo and maybe even the Tories have to quit after a few months, and a new leader can call a spade a spade : Brexit was nonsense, we want to cancel it.


EU will not accept many small deals in each and little terms.

What it might accept s something very basic that will be replaced if something bigger comes up.

I see for example non tariff, aviation etc.


Non-tariff is quite a big thing, actually.
Many happy landings, greetings from The Netherlands!
 
A101
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Re: Brexit Part IX: Final rush to No Deal

Tue Oct 27, 2020 3:14 pm

Dutchy wrote:
olle wrote:
Aesma wrote:
I'm not so sure it would be that easy though, for future governments to start with a basic deal in place. If you agree to disagree, then it's still a big climbdown to go back and ask for more. Also, the EU has made clear for years that it wants a whole encompassing deal, not many mini deals, because it's messy, like is shown by the relationship with Switzerland.

On the other hand if there is no deal, then BoJo and maybe even the Tories have to quit after a few months, and a new leader can call a spade a spade : Brexit was nonsense, we want to cancel it.


EU will not accept many small deals in each and little terms.

What it might accept s something very basic that will be replaced if something bigger comes up.

I see for example non tariff, aviation etc.


Non-tariff is quite a big thing, actually.


Agree tariffs are a big deal, but in this case as the EU has a surplus in trade with the UK it would be more beneficial to the EU to help it remain at a cost competitive price point.

People here are only looking at trade one way in the no quota/tariff talks that just dosnt apply to the UK it is reciprocal and benefits the EU as well as the UK is one of the larger markets when you break it down for individual member nations trade exports
 
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Dutchy
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Re: Brexit Part IX: Final rush to No Deal

Tue Oct 27, 2020 3:24 pm

A101 wrote:
Dutchy wrote:
olle wrote:

EU will not accept many small deals in each and little terms.

What it might accept s something very basic that will be replaced if something bigger comes up.

I see for example non tariff, aviation etc.


Non-tariff is quite a big thing, actually.


Agree tariffs are a big deal, but in this case as the EU has a surplus in trade with the UK it would be more beneficial to the EU to help it remain at a cost competitive price point.

People here are only looking at trade one way in the no quota/tariff talks that just dosnt apply to the UK it is reciprocal and benefits the EU as well as the UK is one of the larger markets when you break it down for individual member nations trade exports


Yeah, there we have the old: "they need us more, than we need them" argumentation. Haven't seen that in a while.
Many happy landings, greetings from The Netherlands!
 
JJJ
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Re: Brexit Part IX: Final rush to No Deal

Tue Oct 27, 2020 3:26 pm

A101 wrote:
Dutchy wrote:
olle wrote:

EU will not accept many small deals in each and little terms.

What it might accept s something very basic that will be replaced if something bigger comes up.

I see for example non tariff, aviation etc.


Non-tariff is quite a big thing, actually.


Agree tariffs are a big deal, but in this case as the EU has a surplus in trade with the UK it would be more beneficial to the EU to help it remain at a cost competitive price point.


Again with the they need us more than we need them. That myth has been debunked several times already.
 
A101
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Re: Brexit Part IX: Final rush to No Deal

Tue Oct 27, 2020 4:10 pm

Dutchy wrote:
A101 wrote:
Agree tariffs are a big deal, but in this case as the EU has a surplus in trade with the UK it would be more beneficial to the EU to help it remain at a cost competitive price point.
People here are only looking at trade one way in the no quota/tariff talks that just dosnt apply to the UK it is reciprocal and benefits the EU as well as the UK is one of the larger markets when you break it down for individual member nations trade exports


Yeah, there we have the old: "they need us more, than we need them" argumentation. Haven't seen that in a while.

&
JJJ wrote:
Again with the they need us more than we need them. That myth has been debunked several times already.


LOL,
OK a reciprocal no quota/tariffs deal to the UK is not beneficial to the EU. Somehow I think the EU wants to protect its trade surplus with the UK
 
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Dutchy
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Re: Brexit Part IX: Final rush to No Deal

Tue Oct 27, 2020 4:35 pm

A101 wrote:
LOL,
OK a reciprocal no quota/tariffs deal to the UK is not beneficial to the EU. Somehow I think the EU wants to protect its trade surplus with the UK


Like we said: "they need us more, than we need them" mantra. has been way past its date. But you are welcome to dust it off again, didn't work last time, won't work this time, but sure, do your thing.

To refresh your memory: what will happen to prices in the UK? (will go up, because tariffs will be imposed on everything, not just EU products). EU can find new markets.
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frmrCapCadet
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Re: Brexit Part IX: Final rush to No Deal

Tue Oct 27, 2020 5:00 pm

As I understand it, WTO will result in tariffs on EU goods coming into the UK. Most Favored status will complicate all of this. Anyone have the implications?
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ElPistolero
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Re: Brexit Part IX: Final rush to No Deal

Tue Oct 27, 2020 6:06 pm

frmrCapCadet wrote:
As I understand it, WTO will result in tariffs on EU goods coming into the UK. Most Favored status will complicate all of this. Anyone have the implications?


Under WTO, each country gets to set its own tariffs. MFN just requires that the same tariffs be apply to all trade partners that don’t have free trade agreement. So if the UK zeroes out tariffs on a certain good for non-FTA partners, then, even in a no deal situation, EU products would face zero tariffs. The UK has zeroed out tariffs on 60% of its imports:

“Under the new regime tariffs would be eliminated on a wide range of products: 60% of trade will come into the UK tariff free on WTO terms or through existing preferential access from January 2021, the government said.“

https://www.reuters.com/article/britain ... KS8N2CF00Z

Cars, agriculture etc will continue to face tariffs. Basically a long way of saying that even in a no-deal situation, EU goods are unlikely to face the same degree of UK tariffs as UK goods going to the EU are. The EU has enough capacity to create substitutes for UK imports; the UK cannot produce everything it imports.
 
ElPistolero
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Re: Brexit Part IX: Final rush to No Deal

Tue Oct 27, 2020 6:18 pm

A101 wrote:
LOL,
OK a reciprocal no quota/tariffs deal to the UK is not beneficial to the EU. Somehow I think the EU wants to protect its trade surplus with the UK


They don’t need to be reciprocal. The UK has already zeroed out tariffs on 60% of its imports (see link in previous post). Under WTO MFN, the EU benefits from that too. By contrast, the EU hasn’t changed much - whatever applied to 3rd countries pre-Brexit will now apply to the UK unless an FTA is signed.

In short, the tariffs applicable to EU goods going into the UK are a lot less than UK goods going to the EU.

Would a no tariff approach be beneficial? Sure. But at what price? The current regime already provides zero tariff access for 60% of imports. Really depends on what the other 40% is worth.
 
olle
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Re: Brexit Part IX: Final rush to No Deal

Tue Oct 27, 2020 7:59 pm

A101 wrote:
Dutchy wrote:
A101 wrote:
Agree tariffs are a big deal, but in this case as the EU has a surplus in trade with the UK it would be more beneficial to the EU to help it remain at a cost competitive price point.
People here are only looking at trade one way in the no quota/tariff talks that just dosnt apply to the UK it is reciprocal and benefits the EU as well as the UK is one of the larger markets when you break it down for individual member nations trade exports


Yeah, there we have the old: "they need us more, than we need them" argumentation. Haven't seen that in a while.

&
JJJ wrote:
Again with the they need us more than we need them. That myth has been debunked several times already.


LOL,
OK a reciprocal no quota/tariffs deal to the UK is not beneficial to the EU. Somehow I think the EU wants to protect its trade surplus with the UK


For products without services EU has a trade surplus. With services it is a totally different game.

UK will never get access for their services the next 15 years.
 
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Aesma
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Re: Brexit Part IX: Final rush to No Deal

Tue Oct 27, 2020 10:49 pm

Dutchy wrote:
Aesma wrote:
On the other hand if there is no deal, then BoJo and maybe even the Tories have to quit after a few months, and a new leader can call a spade a spade : Brexit was nonsense, we want to cancel it.


rejoin you mean? ;)

Even if the next parliament and government wanted to, it will be a long road and there will have to be quite a bit of humble pie to be consumed.


I think COVID could help a lot, the economy everywhere is trashed, so every bits helps. The EU would ask for a referendum to confirm UK people want in, with maybe a clause it's for 10 years at least or something like that. The UK would get back what it had (less maybe the institutions that moved, they're not going to be moved again).
New Technology is the name we give to stuff that doesn't work yet. Douglas Adams
 
frmrCapCadet
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Re: Brexit Part IX: Final rush to No Deal

Wed Oct 28, 2020 2:11 am

The UK had a lot of privileges and opt outs. Those likely will not be available again - ever.
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seahawk
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Re: Brexit Part IX: Final rush to No Deal

Wed Oct 28, 2020 7:59 am

A101 wrote:
Dutchy wrote:
A101 wrote:
Agree tariffs are a big deal, but in this case as the EU has a surplus in trade with the UK it would be more beneficial to the EU to help it remain at a cost competitive price point.
People here are only looking at trade one way in the no quota/tariff talks that just dosnt apply to the UK it is reciprocal and benefits the EU as well as the UK is one of the larger markets when you break it down for individual member nations trade exports


Yeah, there we have the old: "they need us more, than we need them" argumentation. Haven't seen that in a while.

&
JJJ wrote:
Again with the they need us more than we need them. That myth has been debunked several times already.


LOL,
OK a reciprocal no quota/tariffs deal to the UK is not beneficial to the EU. Somehow I think the EU wants to protect its trade surplus with the UK


A trade surplus for the EU against the is hardly a surprise, if you look at the geographical location and the size of the economy as well as the fact that the UK is a service economy.
 
LJ
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Re: Brexit Part IX: Final rush to No Deal

Wed Oct 28, 2020 8:12 am

A101 wrote:
Agree tariffs are a big deal, but in this case as the EU has a surplus in trade with the UK it would be more beneficial to the EU to help it remain at a cost competitive price point.


Actually, mutual recognition or reciprocal acceptance of standards are in essence more important than tariffs. The latter is easy to solve (just change the WTO schedule), the first requires trust and agreement on compliance and level playing field. Moreover, tariffs only increases prices, but the without mutual recognition or reciprocal acceptance the cost of starting doing business increases plus if not certified in the relevant markets (when needed) may even prevent you from doing business. Hence why the stumble block at the moment are not the tariffs, but these non-tariff issues.
 
Klaus
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Re: Brexit Part IX: Final rush to No Deal

Thu Oct 29, 2020 1:42 am

A101 wrote:
LOL,
OK a reciprocal no quota/tariffs deal to the UK is not beneficial to the EU. Somehow I think the EU wants to protect its trade surplus with the UK

The EU has an overall payment deficit with the UK when services are included, which is obviously the only way to look at this when it's about the total risks and benefits.

That brexiters exclusively focus on trade in goods and completely ignore services is bizarre, especially given that services are the only UK sector that is really competitive.

EU leaders, on the other hand, are quite aware of the total situation.

So no, the UK has actually negative leverage regarding the overall balance, so this nothing but just another "we hold all the cards" brexiter illusion.
 
olle
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Re: Brexit Part IX: Final rush to No Deal

Thu Oct 29, 2020 9:40 am

Klaus wrote:
A101 wrote:
LOL,
OK a reciprocal no quota/tariffs deal to the UK is not beneficial to the EU. Somehow I think the EU wants to protect its trade surplus with the UK

The EU has an overall payment deficit with the UK when services are included, which is obviously the only way to look at this when it's about the total risks and benefits.

That brexiters exclusively focus on trade in goods and completely ignore services is bizarre, especially given that services are the only UK sector that is really competitive.

EU leaders, on the other hand, are quite aware of the total situation.

So no, the UK has actually negative leverage regarding the overall balance, so this nothing but just another "we hold all the cards" brexiter illusion.


It is also very well paid jobs in UK that many EU states would like get a part of.
 
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Dutchy
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Re: Brexit Part IX: Final rush to No Deal

Thu Oct 29, 2020 10:52 am

olle wrote:
Klaus wrote:
The EU has an overall payment deficit with the UK when services are included, which is obviously the only way to look at this when it's about the total risks and benefits.

That brexiters exclusively focus on trade in goods and completely ignore services is bizarre, especially given that services are the only UK sector that is really competitive.

EU leaders, on the other hand, are quite aware of the total situation.

So no, the UK has actually negative leverage regarding the overall balance, so this nothing but just another "we hold all the cards" brexiter illusion.


It is also very well paid jobs in UK that many EU states would like get a part of.


True and services are also very well regulated, especially financial services. Brexiteers made the choice to strip the City of its status of being one of the major financial centers in the world. Brexiteer will never accept EU overside over the financial services and the EU will never accept the financial services not being regulated. Remember Iceland and the collapse of the financial industry in 2008/9, the EU isn't keen on a repeat with a much larger industry in the City.
Many happy landings, greetings from The Netherlands!
 
LJ
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Re: Brexit Part IX: Final rush to No Deal

Thu Oct 29, 2020 11:21 am

Dutchy wrote:
True and services are also very well regulated, especially financial services. Brexiteers made the choice to strip the City of its status of being one of the major financial centers in the world. Brexiteer will never accept EU overside over the financial services and the EU will never accept the financial services not being regulated. Remember Iceland and the collapse of the financial industry in 2008/9, the EU isn't keen on a repeat with a much larger industry in the City.


The only reason why the EU will never give the UK the financial sector is because the EU never intended to give a non-Euro country a role in the Euro (clearing) business (the UK needed a court ruling from the ECJ to get the business). After Brexit most (if not all) of the EUR clearing will be done in an Euro country, and thus ECB is overseeing the business and EBA regulations apply.
 
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par13del
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Re: Brexit Part IX: Final rush to No Deal

Thu Oct 29, 2020 2:07 pm

Dutchy wrote:
Sure, an extremely basic deal, is way better than no deal, for all. sorts of reasons. No deal is not really an option. Some rumors seem to suggest that Johnson is waiting for the election results in America. If Biden wins, then Johnson is expected to give in to the EU and there will be a reasonable deal that will take the edge of Brexit. If Trump gets his second term, then Johnson will likely go for a no-deal Brexit and align the UK with the USA. Pure speculation, of course, but it makes sense given the reaction from both candidates. If true, so much for sovereignty, which was a complete bull to begin with, but sure.

So to be clear, Obama a friend of Europe could not get the USA congress to pass the last trans-Atlantic trade agreement which was held up for years, but a Biden White House will have the full support of the USA congress?
I think sometimes we tend to overlook the limitation of the powers of POTUS.
 
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SomebodyInTLS
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Re: Brexit Part IX: Final rush to No Deal

Fri Oct 30, 2020 9:02 am

par13del wrote:
Dutchy wrote:
Sure, an extremely basic deal, is way better than no deal, for all. sorts of reasons. No deal is not really an option. Some rumors seem to suggest that Johnson is waiting for the election results in America. If Biden wins, then Johnson is expected to give in to the EU and there will be a reasonable deal that will take the edge of Brexit. If Trump gets his second term, then Johnson will likely go for a no-deal Brexit and align the UK with the USA. Pure speculation, of course, but it makes sense given the reaction from both candidates. If true, so much for sovereignty, which was a complete bull to begin with, but sure.

So to be clear, Obama a friend of Europe could not get the USA congress to pass the last trans-Atlantic trade agreement which was held up for years, but a Biden White House will have the full support of the USA congress?
I think sometimes we tend to overlook the limitation of the powers of POTUS.


Which makes relying on the stable position of the stable genius and his stable opinions for a long term national geopolitical policy to affect millions for generations look even more stupid than it already did.
"As with most things related to aircraft design, it's all about the trade-offs and much more nuanced than A.net likes to make out."
 
olle
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Re: Brexit Part IX: Final rush to No Deal

Fri Oct 30, 2020 9:25 am

SomebodyInTLS wrote:
par13del wrote:
Dutchy wrote:
Sure, an extremely basic deal, is way better than no deal, for all. sorts of reasons. No deal is not really an option. Some rumors seem to suggest that Johnson is waiting for the election results in America. If Biden wins, then Johnson is expected to give in to the EU and there will be a reasonable deal that will take the edge of Brexit. If Trump gets his second term, then Johnson will likely go for a no-deal Brexit and align the UK with the USA. Pure speculation, of course, but it makes sense given the reaction from both candidates. If true, so much for sovereignty, which was a complete bull to begin with, but sure.

So to be clear, Obama a friend of Europe could not get the USA congress to pass the last trans-Atlantic trade agreement which was held up for years, but a Biden White House will have the full support of the USA congress?
I think sometimes we tend to overlook the limitation of the powers of POTUS.


Which makes relying on the stable position of the stable genius and his stable opinions for a long term national geopolitical policy to affect millions for generations look even more stupid than it already did.


So basically Brexit and UK are depending on Trump gaining the WH, Senate and house.

This not considering that it seems like Ireland (like Israel) has a more special relation ship with USA then UK. So still Brexit need to address GFA in a way that it understands ROI and Catholic NI point of view and not historically UK and NI protestant point of view.
 
art
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Re: Brexit Part IX: Final rush to No Deal

Fri Oct 30, 2020 10:33 am

olle wrote:
...it seems like Ireland (like Israel) has a more special relation ship with USA then UK. So still Brexit need to address GFA in a way that it understands ROI and Catholic NI point of view and not historically UK and NI protestant point of view.


I think that you are right in saying Israel has a more special relationship with the US than the UK. Possibly Ireland, too. While there are clearly pro-Israel and pro-Ireland lobbies in the US, I am unaware of any visible pro-English (UK) lobby.
 
ElPistolero
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Re: Brexit Part IX: Final rush to No Deal

Fri Oct 30, 2020 3:19 pm

art wrote:
olle wrote:
...it seems like Ireland (like Israel) has a more special relation ship with USA then UK. So still Brexit need to address GFA in a way that it understands ROI and Catholic NI point of view and not historically UK and NI protestant point of view.


I think that you are right in saying Israel has a more special relationship with the US than the UK. Possibly Ireland, too. While there are clearly pro-Israel and pro-Ireland lobbies in the US, I am unaware of any visible pro-English (UK) lobby.


There is a pro-UK lobby in the US. It’s quiet for two reasons:

1) Expats/diaspora are, by definition, “anywhere’s”. The Irish embrace the “anywhere’s”. Brexiteers/English nationalists don’t. They are “somewheres”. Given that the somewhere/anywhere division is a defining characteristic of Brexit, it’s no real surprise that the UK expats/English diaspora aren’t as vocally supportive of the UK as the Irish expats are of Ireland. Well-educated, professional, mobile - these are predominantly ‘remainer’ characteristics. They’re reluctant to throw their lot in with “somewheres” from, I don’t know, Bishop Auckland who probably view them as not British or patriotic enough.

2. Politicians respond to diasporas. Quiet / ambivalent UK expats/diaspora = disinterested politicians. It’s compounded by the fact that the Dems view Brexit as part of a Trump populist phenomena (thank Farage and Bannon for that) and a good chunk of national security-focused Republicans see ongoing and future tension between the UK and EU as a real threat to “western” cohesion and alliances. For all the principles that Brexit is based on, it’s not lost on anyone that it plays into other unfriendly countries’ hands. The much derided but potential EU defence force, for example, can create problems for NATO, and so on. Outside of the current administration, it’s not clear how many (R) senators and congressmen think gaining the UK but losing the EU is a winning proposition. It isn’t lost on them that they could have had both until Brexiteers decided to shake things up.

The lobby will come back eventually, but even it appears to be okay with watching Brexiteers squirm a bit.
 
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Aesma
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Re: Brexit Part IX: Final rush to No Deal

Sat Oct 31, 2020 3:12 am

par13del wrote:
Dutchy wrote:
Sure, an extremely basic deal, is way better than no deal, for all. sorts of reasons. No deal is not really an option. Some rumors seem to suggest that Johnson is waiting for the election results in America. If Biden wins, then Johnson is expected to give in to the EU and there will be a reasonable deal that will take the edge of Brexit. If Trump gets his second term, then Johnson will likely go for a no-deal Brexit and align the UK with the USA. Pure speculation, of course, but it makes sense given the reaction from both candidates. If true, so much for sovereignty, which was a complete bull to begin with, but sure.

So to be clear, Obama a friend of Europe could not get the USA congress to pass the last trans-Atlantic trade agreement which was held up for years, but a Biden White House will have the full support of the USA congress?
I think sometimes we tend to overlook the limitation of the powers of POTUS.


Dutchy isn't talking about an EU-US deal, but about UK-USA vs UK-EU deals. If Trump stays, they're mutually exclusive, and BoJo might go for UK-USA. Biden is concerned about Ireland and other considerations, so UK-USA can't happen if there is no UK-EU deal first.

As for an EU-US deal, I think Trump might have focussed minds with the fight against China. It would be much easier to have appeased trade relations with China if the EU and USA had one voice on the matter, instead of what Trump is doing, putting tariffs on everybody, and saying to the EU "you're next".
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Dutchy
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Re: Brexit Part IX: Final rush to No Deal

Sat Oct 31, 2020 8:59 am

So the 31st of October has arrived. There supposed to be a deal by now or it could not be ratified and implemented anymore, according to the EU. So what will happen next? Extention yet again? I think it is the most likely outcome.
Many happy landings, greetings from The Netherlands!
 
Olddog
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Re: Brexit Part IX: Final rush to No Deal

Sat Oct 31, 2020 9:47 am

I doubt there is an extension, everyone is fed up with that drama and covid is way more important.

I guess the EU will apply some exemptions only in its own interest.
 
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Aesma
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Re: Brexit Part IX: Final rush to No Deal

Sat Oct 31, 2020 12:53 pm

Extension of the deadline yes, from what I've seen on videos mid November could still work for a deal.

I think that even later could be OK, it wouldn't have time to be ratified by everyone, but could already be implemented on the first of January with some winks and nods.

I mean, one change that will happen on the 1st of January, deal or no deal, is the customs border appearing, and the UK has already said they won't be ready on their side until July, so they will just let anything in...
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RyanairGuru
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Re: Brexit Part IX: Final rush to No Deal

Sat Oct 31, 2020 2:34 pm

ElPistolero wrote:
art wrote:
olle wrote:
...it seems like Ireland (like Israel) has a more special relation ship with USA then UK. So still Brexit need to address GFA in a way that it understands ROI and Catholic NI point of view and not historically UK and NI protestant point of view.


I think that you are right in saying Israel has a more special relationship with the US than the UK. Possibly Ireland, too. While there are clearly pro-Israel and pro-Ireland lobbies in the US, I am unaware of any visible pro-English (UK) lobby.


There is a pro-UK lobby in the US. It’s quiet for two reasons:

1) Expats/diaspora are, by definition, “anywhere’s”. The Irish embrace the “anywhere’s”. Brexiteers/English nationalists don’t. They are “somewheres”. Given that the somewhere/anywhere division is a defining characteristic of Brexit, it’s no real surprise that the UK expats/English diaspora aren’t as vocally supportive of the UK as the Irish expats are of Ireland. Well-educated, professional, mobile - these are predominantly ‘remainer’ characteristics. They’re reluctant to throw their lot in with “somewheres” from, I don’t know, Bishop Auckland who probably view them as not British or patriotic enough.

2. Politicians respond to diasporas. Quiet / ambivalent UK expats/diaspora = disinterested politicians. It’s compounded by the fact that the Dems view Brexit as part of a Trump populist phenomena (thank Farage and Bannon for that) and a good chunk of national security-focused Republicans see ongoing and future tension between the UK and EU as a real threat to “western” cohesion and alliances. For all the principles that Brexit is based on, it’s not lost on anyone that it plays into other unfriendly countries’ hands. The much derided but potential EU defence force, for example, can create problems for NATO, and so on. Outside of the current administration, it’s not clear how many (R) senators and congressmen think gaining the UK but losing the EU is a winning proposition. It isn’t lost on them that they could have had both until Brexiteers decided to shake things up.

The lobby will come back eventually, but even it appears to be okay with watching Brexiteers squirm a bit.


While I don’t disagree with what you say, I think you are understating the extent to which the “Irish Question” is something of an article of faith for the Democratic Party.

In my mind there are three key reasons why the Democrats are so pro-Ireland:

1) I personally believe that history has given Bill Clinton an outsize role in the GFA, Tony Blair and Bertie Ahern were the instrumental leaders IMHO, and Bill mostly just showed up for the photo op. Nonetheless many people, especially in America, believe that he was instrumental in the process, and as much as Bill is persona non grata with the Democrats in the #metoo era (e.g. short speaking slot outside prime time at the convention) the old guard, including Pelosi, Schumer, and Biden, will defend his legacy.

2) The Democratic heartland in the North East is Irish country. To win state-wide elections in states like Massachusetts, Connecticut, and New York the assumption is you have to be pro-Ireland (actually pro-Ireland and pro-Israel, at least in the case of New York).

3) Don’t underestimate the power of the Catholic Church. While this is, admittedly, an uneasy alliance in the 2000s, given the Democrats position on many social issues, the Democrats and the Catholic Church go hand in hand. From Irish migrants, through Italian migrants, and most recently Latino migrants, Catholic demographics in the US have traditionally aligned with the Democratic Party. As I said, this relationship is uneasy, but it is enduring. The Democrats don’t want the Catholic Church espousing from the pulpit that they are against Irish issues. As an aside, Biden is a Catholic descended from Irish migrants.

If the Republicans controlled both houses of Congress and the presidency then I think a deal could be done, but I fully expect that the Democrats will demand some safeguards for the Irish border and Northern Ireland.
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Arion640
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Re: Brexit Part IX: Final rush to No Deal

Sat Oct 31, 2020 2:41 pm

Canada trade deal incoming:

https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/www.tele ... talks/amp/

Looking forward to improving our relations with one of our sister nations.
 
ElPistolero
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Re: Brexit Part IX: Final rush to No Deal

Sat Oct 31, 2020 3:10 pm

Arion640 wrote:
Canada trade deal incoming:

https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/www.tele ... talks/amp/

Looking forward to improving our relations with one of our sister nations.


To be clear, a transitional agreement, not a comprehensive FTA, is coming. The FTA will take a while:

“Canadian officials never really walked away, but they did hit pause when Britain's journey toward independent trade policy hit bumps.

According to International Trade Minister Mary Ng's office, officials now are working toward a "transitional agreement" to minimize disruptions for businesses and workers.
...
A transitional agreement with Canada in the short term won't be the same as a customized, bilateral agreement. That would take far longer than three months to conclude.

It would, however, prevent the two countries from "crashing out" of CETA, offering a stop-gap measure until both sides have the time and capacity to negotiate something more bespoke.
...

Any future trade agreement between Canada and the U.K. will be influenced by the U.K.-EU trade relationship, as well as any unilateral U.K. trade approaches.”

https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/monday ... -1.5732075

Sounds like Canada will rollover CETA until a new agreement is reached. And that might take years. So status quo for the foreseeable future, as opposed to a bespoke deal that reflects UK, rather than EU, trade priorities.

Not sure that’s something to cheer on - continuing to trade on the basis of EU trade objectives - but sure.
 
olle
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Re: Brexit Part IX: Final rush to No Deal

Sat Oct 31, 2020 3:44 pm

At least UK gets the FTAs negotiated with EU and not worse.

Of course FTA UK Japan can be argued that UK only get the leftovers from EU.
 
sabenapilot
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Re: Brexit Part IX: Final rush to No Deal

Sat Oct 31, 2020 4:35 pm

It will be the same with the Canadian deal, since it's based on the EU FTA.
The UK does not hold quota of itself, and can thus only use the EU leftovers (if any) in the agreements it signs (cfr the UK-Japan FTA).
As time goes by and the EU builds up its trade relationship with nations like Japan, Canada and others, the export opportunities for British manufacturers shrinks in those countries. Reason why the UK must urgently secure its own quota (and thus reach a deal with the EU), after which it can sign real FTA with those nations.
Until then, the UK is limited to copy-pasting and waiting as last in the line, something those countries know all too well too of course.
 
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Re: Brexit Part IX: Final rush to No Deal

Sat Oct 31, 2020 5:18 pm

With one interruption under Trump the US has maintained a special envoy for NI and the GFA. That committment held the feet of both the UK and the various NI partisans to the fire. It is US policy, both under Ds and Rs to support the GFA.

see Wikipedia US and the GFA
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Dutchy
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Re: Brexit Part IX: Final rush to No Deal

Tue Nov 03, 2020 7:29 am

Exiting day for Brexit. Today will be determined if Johnson will go for a no-deal Brexit (Australian style deal) or a more comprehensive agreement with the EU. We will see who will win the elections in the US.
Many happy landings, greetings from The Netherlands!
 
olle
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Re: Brexit Part IX: Final rush to No Deal

Tue Nov 03, 2020 8:22 am

Dutchy wrote:
Exiting day for Brexit. Today will be determined if Johnson will go for a no-deal Brexit (Australian style deal) or a more comprehensive agreement with the EU. We will see who will win the elections in the US.



Was not the decision day 2 weeks ago?
 
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Dutchy
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Re: Brexit Part IX: Final rush to No Deal

Tue Nov 03, 2020 8:38 am

olle wrote:
Dutchy wrote:
Exiting day for Brexit. Today will be determined if Johnson will go for a no-deal Brexit (Australian style deal) or a more comprehensive agreement with the EU. We will see who will win the elections in the US.



Was not the decision day 2 weeks ago?


No fake news. :lol:

the discission is highly influenced, if not decided by the outcome of the US elections, how ironic.
Many happy landings, greetings from The Netherlands!
 
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speedygonzales
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Re: Brexit Part IX: Final rush to No Deal

Tue Nov 03, 2020 8:51 am

Dutchy wrote:
olle wrote:
Dutchy wrote:
Exiting day for Brexit. Today will be determined if Johnson will go for a no-deal Brexit (Australian style deal) or a more comprehensive agreement with the EU. We will see who will win the elections in the US.



Was not the decision day 2 weeks ago?


No fake news. :lol:

the discission is highly influenced, if not decided by the outcome of the US elections, how ironic.

How sovereign of the UK :roll:
Ignorance kills. :tombstone:
 
olle
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Re: Brexit Part IX: Final rush to No Deal

Tue Nov 03, 2020 8:56 am

speedygonzales wrote:
Dutchy wrote:
olle wrote:


Was not the decision day 2 weeks ago?


No fake news. :lol:

the discission is highly influenced, if not decided by the outcome of the US elections, how ironic.

How sovereign of the UK :roll:


Brexit seems to be the final of a disastrous Brittish century 1918 to 2020...

In the end UK sits in a situation that it is in the mercy of US and EU....

Or shall it join Russia and China?

Considering that the aim of of UK 1914 was to suppress a growing Germany and dominating the world I must the objects has not been reached...
 
Bostrom
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Re: Brexit Part IX: Final rush to No Deal

Tue Nov 03, 2020 3:41 pm

Dutchy wrote:
the discission is highly influenced, if not decided by the outcome of the US elections, how ironic.


Has it been confirmed? I've seen a lot of speculation that that is the plan, but who knows what is going on in Cummings' head?
 
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Dutchy
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Re: Brexit Part IX: Final rush to No Deal

Tue Nov 03, 2020 3:54 pm

Bostrom wrote:
Dutchy wrote:
the discission is highly influenced, if not decided by the outcome of the US elections, how ironic.


Has it been confirmed? I've seen a lot of speculation that that is the plan, but who knows what is going on in Cummings' head?


Sure, who knows. But given that both candidates have a totally different approach to the Irish border issue, it backs to reason that it will be a major factor in deciding how to proceed with it. So no, not confirmed, but it will never be confirmed, given that it is the strategy of the UK government you are talking about.
Many happy landings, greetings from The Netherlands!
 
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Aesma
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Re: Brexit Part IX: Final rush to No Deal

Wed Nov 04, 2020 9:58 am

Trump might be winning but even then my bet is on an EU deal. For at least two reasons : an US deal won't help the UK at all, so Brexit would still cause mayhem. And it looks like the Dems keep the House so there can be no trade deal without their signature.
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Dutchy
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Re: Brexit Part IX: Final rush to No Deal

Wed Nov 04, 2020 2:49 pm

We'll see. The US election results have their influence on Bexit. So it will be interesting to see if the results will / would be dragged out in court.
Many happy landings, greetings from The Netherlands!
 
sabenapilot
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Re: Brexit Part IX: Final rush to No Deal

Fri Nov 06, 2020 11:26 am

The US election result is terrible news for the UK.
Either Biden wins outright and then it's a return to the back of the queue for BoJo OR it takes weeks to sort out who'll be the next president and then Brexit takes the backburner everywhere...
Anyway, the illusions of the upraise of 'ordinary people' led by billionaires for the regaining of their county's sovereignty and old prestige is about to fall to pieces, merely 5 years after it started. And contrary to the US, there's no way to correct the historic mistake for the UK.

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