Moderators: richierich, ua900, PanAm_DC10, hOMSaR

 
94717
Posts: 2789
Joined: Tue Feb 06, 2007 3:38 am

Re: Brexit Part IX: Final rush to No Deal

Sat Dec 05, 2020 8:53 pm

Dutchy wrote:
olle wrote:
seahawk wrote:
Sadly the chancellor disagrees with that. That is the problem with the UK and its current governmet, it behaves like 2 countries with completely different opinions and goals. You never know which version you will get.



This is a receipt for disaster..

What numbers coming out of UK can be trusted?


The governor of the Bank of England, Andrew Bailey, says this. So why couldn't he be trusted? Just an analysis.


So if we trust governor of the Bank of England can we trust the UK government telling us the totally opposite?
 
94717
Posts: 2789
Joined: Tue Feb 06, 2007 3:38 am

Re: Brexit Part IX: Final rush to No Deal

Sat Dec 05, 2020 8:56 pm

LJ wrote:
AeroVega wrote:
I would not be so sure because Angela wants a deal and Boris knows it. My prediction: Boris will give in on fish and Ursula/Angela will direct Barnier to go back to the negotiating table to hand the UK a better deal than EEA members have. I would be pleasantly surprised if the EU walks away.


Yet it's not about fish (OK except for maybe France). It's about level playing field. It's something the Brits don't seem to understand but that's what you get if you don't listen to what's going on in countries like Belgium, The Netherlands and France. I agree, the headlines are about fish, but if one reads the full articles it always comes to level playing field and assurance that one follows this. Take Rutte. He seldom mentions fish, but level playing field and governance are the things he always adresses.


I think that UK also miss that Holland, Belgium and France consider that many UK firms moves part of their business creating jobs in the countries mentioned.

The wait and see approach is not bad strategy it seems.
 
AeroVega
Posts: 372
Joined: Tue Nov 20, 2007 4:32 pm

Re: Brexit Part IX: Final rush to No Deal

Sat Dec 05, 2020 9:05 pm

Tugger wrote:
Does anyone here actually have what the terms at issue actually are? Not guessing but the actual issues and what and why they can't be agreed to? I know fishing is one.

Tugg


One of the main reasons for the EU's existence is to prevent neighboring countries from competing with each other in a race to the bottom that leaves everyone worse off. A divergent UK having free access to the EU market risks starting such a race to the bottom. So the EU insists, logically, that the UK has to agree not to diverge if they want to have free access to the EU market (like Norway and Switzerland). But the UK does not want to do to this and is trying to use fish and access to the UK market for German carmakers to somehow get the EU to make an exception for them.
 
sabenapilot
Posts: 3680
Joined: Sat Feb 26, 2000 6:18 pm

Re: Brexit Part IX: Final rush to No Deal

Sat Dec 05, 2020 9:10 pm

flyingturtle wrote:
Tugger wrote:
Does anyone here actually have what the terms at issue actually are? Not guessing but the actual issues and what and why they can't be agreed to? I know fishing is one.

Tugg


I just checked, and the remaining problems are "level playing field, governance and fisheries."

As I understand it, the level playing field means that UK is only allowed to export into the EU freely if they follow EU rules, e.g. on environmental and worker protection. The EU is not going to put EU companies at a disadvantage.

Governance is how the UK-EU treaty is going to be enforced and disputes resolved. By the EU court? By a separate, new court?

And fisheries... well, they remain fishy.


Fish is just for flagwaving really;
it's representing just 0,02% of the total value of a deal (or about), so nothing that can not be overcome by compromise and some subsidies to sweeten any bitter pills.

Governance is also a topic on which a compromise can be found if creative names and complex procedures are introduced for whatever long-existing remedial mechanisms are agreed to.

The big issue is the LPF:
the UK simply can not get its head around thesimple fact that the EU will never ever let British companies compete in the SM, if the UK is not sticking to the same rules as companies from the 31 other EEA-countries. You can't expect to be allowed to participate in an international football tournament if you want to reserve the right for your national team to play by rugby rules. Simple as that.
 
A101
Posts: 2464
Joined: Sun Dec 09, 2018 1:27 am

Re: Brexit Part IX: Final rush to No Deal

Sat Dec 05, 2020 10:21 pm

olle wrote:
Dutchy wrote:
olle wrote:


This is a receipt for disaster..

What numbers coming out of UK can be trusted?


The governor of the Bank of England, Andrew Bailey, says this. So why couldn't he be trusted? Just an analysis.


So if we trust governor of the Bank of England can we trust the UK government telling us the totally opposite?


Did the BOE get it right when they said that a vote to leave the EU will lead to an immediate recession for the UK?
 
94717
Posts: 2789
Joined: Tue Feb 06, 2007 3:38 am

Re: Brexit Part IX: Final rush to No Deal

Sat Dec 05, 2020 10:38 pm

A101 wrote:
olle wrote:
Dutchy wrote:

The governor of the Bank of England, Andrew Bailey, says this. So why couldn't he be trusted? Just an analysis.


So if we trust governor of the Bank of England can we trust the UK government telling us the totally opposite?


Did the BOE get it right when they said that a vote to leave the EU will lead to an immediate recession for the UK?


Did they not say when they leave the SM. UK will leave the SM 1 of Jan 2021.

As I remember Leave said that leaving would mean great business opportunity and increased growth the day after leave.

Since 2016 Uk has been moving from being the fastest growing G7 to the slowest. That before leaving the SM.
 
User avatar
Dutchy
Posts: 12341
Joined: Sat Nov 03, 2007 1:25 am

Re: Brexit Part IX: Final rush to No Deal

Sat Dec 05, 2020 10:54 pm

Did Brexiteers get anything 100% right?
Many happy landings, greetings from The Netherlands!
 
A101
Posts: 2464
Joined: Sun Dec 09, 2018 1:27 am

Re: Brexit Part IX: Final rush to No Deal

Sat Dec 05, 2020 11:22 pm

olle wrote:
A101 wrote:
olle wrote:

So if we trust governor of the Bank of England can we trust the UK government telling us the totally opposite?


Did the BOE get it right when they said that a vote to leave the EU will lead to an immediate recession for the UK?


Did they not say when they leave the SM. UK will leave the SM 1 of Jan 2021.

As I remember Leave said that leaving would mean great business opportunity and increased growth the day after leave.

Since 2016 Uk has been moving from being the fastest growing G7 to the slowest. That before leaving the SM.


Carney head of BOE at the time of the Referenda suggested that a vote to leave the EU the UK will enter a technical recession which never materialised until coronaviruis hit

All i am saying is not everthing the head of the BOE says is true
 
94717
Posts: 2789
Joined: Tue Feb 06, 2007 3:38 am

Re: Brexit Part IX: Final rush to No Deal

Sat Dec 05, 2020 11:38 pm

A101 wrote:
olle wrote:
A101 wrote:

Did the BOE get it right when they said that a vote to leave the EU will lead to an immediate recession for the UK?


Did they not say when they leave the SM. UK will leave the SM 1 of Jan 2021.

As I remember Leave said that leaving would mean great business opportunity and increased growth the day after leave.

Since 2016 Uk has been moving from being the fastest growing G7 to the slowest. That before leaving the SM.


Carney head of BOE at the time of the Referenda suggested that a vote to leave the EU the UK will enter a technical recession which never materialised until coronaviruis hit

All i am saying is not everthing the head of the BOE says is true


This is actually my point. Numbers from UK does not seems to be very accurate.
 
User avatar
Aesma
Posts: 14088
Joined: Sat Nov 14, 2009 6:14 am

Re: Brexit Part IX: Final rush to No Deal

Sun Dec 06, 2020 12:00 am

olle wrote:
Dutchy wrote:
AeroVega wrote:
I would not be so sure because Angela wants a deal and Boris knows it.


Yes, Merkel wants a deal, sure, the UK needs a deal.......... and you can count that the EU knows that full well. The current UK government ask the EU something they will never give --> undermining the EU internal market by given access to the UK without ensuring a level playing field. So that is a no go.


Does France, Holland and Denmark want a for them a bad deal or can they wait 6 month?


I watch everything I can find on Brexit in English on Youtube and I find fascinating that president Macron, his "troubles at home", and French fishermen, are mentioned a lot, because in France nobody is talking about any of this. Don't get me wrong, Macron would rather a "win" for French fishermen, but at the end of the day they won't make or break his political career !

There is a lot of focus on him when in fact the deal has to be voted on by something like 30 parliaments, and there is every chance it can't even pass the UK one, or that the UK scuttles everything with its internal market bill.
New Technology is the name we give to stuff that doesn't work yet. Douglas Adams
 
prebennorholm
Posts: 7146
Joined: Tue Mar 21, 2000 6:25 am

Re: Brexit Part IX: Final rush to No Deal

Sun Dec 06, 2020 2:43 am

A101 wrote:
Carney head of BOE at the time of the Referenda suggested that a vote to leave the EU the UK will enter a technical recession which never materialised until coronaviruis hit.

I'm not sure about the definition of a "technical recession".

But on the day back in 2015 when Cameron announced the referendum you would pay 72 pence for a Euro.
Half a year later just before the referendum you would pay about 10% more.
Immediately after the referendum the pound dropped about 10% more.
Since then the pound has been rather stable on its low level and only lost a few % over four years.
So today you pay 90 pence for a Euro, a total drop of 24% since December 2015.

I don't know how the head of Bank of England relates that to to a "technical recession". I only know that if my Danish krone had done the same, then I would have been a poorer man today. Call it anything you like as long as you don't call me early in the morning.
Always keep your number of landings equal to your number of take-offs
 
A101
Posts: 2464
Joined: Sun Dec 09, 2018 1:27 am

Re: Brexit Part IX: Final rush to No Deal

Sun Dec 06, 2020 4:34 am

prebennorholm wrote:
A101 wrote:
Carney head of BOE at the time of the Referenda suggested that a vote to leave the EU the UK will enter a technical recession which never materialised until coronaviruis hit.

I'm not sure about the definition of a "technical recession".

But on the day back in 2015 when Cameron announced the referendum you would pay 72 pence for a Euro.
Half a year later just before the referendum you would pay about 10% more.
Immediately after the referendum the pound dropped about 10% more.
Since then the pound has been rather stable on its low level and only lost a few % over four years.
So today you pay 90 pence for a Euro, a total drop of 24% since December 2015.

I don't know how the head of Bank of England relates that to to a "technical recession". I only know that if my Danish krone had done the same, then I would have been a poorer man today. Call it anything you like as long as you don't call me early in the morning.



A ‘technical recession’ is two consecutive quarters of negative growth in real GDP. A drop in the value of the GBP is not a technical recession.

A drop of the GBP has both a positive and negative affect, its cheaper for os trade as the ₤ drops meaning its cheaper for overseas markets to by UK goods but imports become more expensive, goods produced in UK become cheaper against overseas goods so people will be more inclined to buy GB products
 
User avatar
Dutchy
Posts: 12341
Joined: Sat Nov 03, 2007 1:25 am

Re: Brexit Part IX: Final rush to No Deal

Sun Dec 06, 2020 8:26 am

A101 wrote:
A drop of the GBP has both a positive and negative affect, its cheaper for os trade as the ₤ drops meaning its cheaper for overseas markets to by UK goods but imports become more expensive, goods produced in UK become cheaper against overseas goods so people will be more inclined to buy GB products


Overall it is negative for the UK people and economy.

And did Brexiteers get anything 100% right? Where are the big wins, all the better trade deals and did the UK get the easiest deal in history? You have been out for 10 months now and 4 years after the referendum. Is there any positive result from Brexit? Fine if you critize the Bank of England, but you need to apply the same standard to your religion, otherwise the comment is not serious, just designed to feed your own bias.
Many happy landings, greetings from The Netherlands!
 
User avatar
Number6
Posts: 73
Joined: Thu Aug 30, 2018 8:17 am

Re: Brexit Part IX: Final rush to No Deal

Sun Dec 06, 2020 8:33 am

A101 wrote:

Carney head of BOE at the time of the Referenda suggested that a vote to leave the EU the UK will enter a technical recession which never materialised until coronaviruis hit

All i am saying is not everthing the head of the BOE says is true


This comes up every so often from Brexiteers and they always miss the all important Context with regard to the remain campaigns predictions. The Bank of England report was based on the stated aim of Prime Minister Cameron to trigger A50 the day after the referendum. That bit of context explains the lack of recession the report talked about. Context is everything.
 
A101
Posts: 2464
Joined: Sun Dec 09, 2018 1:27 am

Re: Brexit Part IX: Final rush to No Deal

Sun Dec 06, 2020 8:53 am

Dutchy wrote:
A101 wrote:
A drop of the GBP has both a positive and negative affect, its cheaper for os trade as the ₤ drops meaning its cheaper for overseas markets to by UK goods but imports become more expensive, goods produced in UK become cheaper against overseas goods so people will be more inclined to buy GB products


Overall it is negative for the UK people and economy.

And did Brexiteers get anything 100% right? Where are the big wins, all the better trade deals and did the UK get the easiest deal in history? You have been out for 10 months now and 4 years after the referendum. Is there any positive result from Brexit? Fine if you critize the Bank of England, but you need to apply the same standard to your religion, otherwise the comment is not serious, just designed to feed your own bias.



in a few weeks we will be finally free of the EU that is a big win in itself
 
A101
Posts: 2464
Joined: Sun Dec 09, 2018 1:27 am

Re: Brexit Part IX: Final rush to No Deal

Sun Dec 06, 2020 8:55 am

Number6 wrote:
A101 wrote:

Carney head of BOE at the time of the Referenda suggested that a vote to leave the EU the UK will enter a technical recession which never materialised until coronaviruis hit

All i am saying is not everthing the head of the BOE says is true


This comes up every so often from Brexiteers and they always miss the all important Context with regard to the remain campaigns predictions. The Bank of England report was based on the stated aim of Prime Minister Cameron to trigger A50 the day after the referendum. That bit of context explains the lack of recession the report talked about. Context is everything.


And where did say he will trigger A50 the day after the referenda?
 
User avatar
seahawk
Posts: 10177
Joined: Fri May 27, 2005 1:29 am

Re: Brexit Part IX: Final rush to No Deal

Sun Dec 06, 2020 9:15 am

AeroVega wrote:
seahawk wrote:
Amazing people still do not understand Merkel after all this years. When she says that she wants a deal, she means that a good deal would be beneficial for both sides and that would be her preferred outcome. It does not mean that she is willing to make a bad deal though.


Of course Merkel wants a good deal. A good deal for Germany. That's her job.

But a good deal for Germany is not necessarily a good deal for the other members of the EU.


She did clearly say that the interests of all EU members must be considered:

https://www.dw.com/en/angela-merkel-no- ... a-55775382

But at least she is also responsible for Brexit:

https://www.express.co.uk/news/world/13 ... spiegel-eu
 
User avatar
Dutchy
Posts: 12341
Joined: Sat Nov 03, 2007 1:25 am

Re: Brexit Part IX: Final rush to No Deal

Sun Dec 06, 2020 9:20 am

A101 wrote:
Dutchy wrote:
A101 wrote:
A drop of the GBP has both a positive and negative affect, its cheaper for os trade as the ₤ drops meaning its cheaper for overseas markets to by UK goods but imports become more expensive, goods produced in UK become cheaper against overseas goods so people will be more inclined to buy GB products


Overall it is negative for the UK people and economy.

And did Brexiteers get anything 100% right? Where are the big wins, all the better trade deals and did the UK get the easiest deal in history? You have been out for 10 months now and 4 years after the referendum. Is there any positive result from Brexit? Fine if you critize the Bank of England, but you need to apply the same standard to your religion, otherwise the comment is not serious, just designed to feed your own bias.



in a few weeks we will be finally free of the EU that is a big win in itself


No, no, no, I will not let you get away with that. You might see it as a big "win". We can and have been debated at length this concept of "free", which is ridiculous in itself. But that was not what I talked about, so you conveniently omitted a reaction to the point and started to talk about something else.

So the simple question posed, do you set the same standards for the Brexiteers rhetoric as you do for the Bank of England? Or not?
Many happy landings, greetings from The Netherlands!
 
User avatar
Dutchy
Posts: 12341
Joined: Sat Nov 03, 2007 1:25 am

Re: Brexit Part IX: Final rush to No Deal

Sun Dec 06, 2020 9:23 am

seahawk wrote:
AeroVega wrote:
seahawk wrote:
Amazing people still do not understand Merkel after all this years. When she says that she wants a deal, she means that a good deal would be beneficial for both sides and that would be her preferred outcome. It does not mean that she is willing to make a bad deal though.


Of course Merkel wants a good deal. A good deal for Germany. That's her job.

But a good deal for Germany is not necessarily a good deal for the other members of the EU.


She did clearly say that the interests of all EU members must be considered:

https://www.dw.com/en/angela-merkel-no- ... a-55775382

But at least she is also responsible for Brexit:

https://www.express.co.uk/news/world/13 ... spiegel-eu


Each and every member State have a veto right. So there is no such thing as just Germany's interest to be satisfied and it will be ok.
Many happy landings, greetings from The Netherlands!
 
LJ
Posts: 5463
Joined: Wed Nov 17, 1999 8:28 pm

Re: Brexit Part IX: Final rush to No Deal

Sun Dec 06, 2020 9:30 am

flyingturtle wrote:
Tugger wrote:
Does anyone here actually have what the terms at issue actually are? Not guessing but the actual issues and what and why they can't be agreed to? I know fishing is one.

Tugg


I just checked, and the remaining problems are "level playing field, governance and fisheries."


In exactly this order.

Basically it all comes down to sovereignty. The UK wants be "sovereign" though any trade agreement will reduce that (perceived) sovereignty. Thus it all depends how far the UK is willing to go giving up its (perceived) sovereignty. The EU (and especially those countries close to it) have a very big interested in the level playing field. The Interal Market Bill has eroded confidence and the expected Finance Bill will increase this erosion as it will be veiwed as undermining the WA. In short, a no-deal is the only option for both as the EU cannot trust the UK and the UK doesn't want to loose the level of sovereignty a deal would entail. Fish is just a by product which wouldn/t be a big issue if we wouldn't have elections in both France and The Netherlands next year. As such the timing is very bad for any deal on fish.
 
User avatar
Dutchy
Posts: 12341
Joined: Sat Nov 03, 2007 1:25 am

Re: Brexit Part IX: Final rush to No Deal

Sun Dec 06, 2020 9:53 am

LJ wrote:
Fish is just a by product which wouldn/t be a big issue if we wouldn't have elections in both France and The Netherlands next year. As such the timing is very bad for any deal on fish.


fish is hardly mentioned over here. It is mainly a symbol for brexiteers. Brexit was always and will always be a loose-loose.
Many happy landings, greetings from The Netherlands!
 
A101
Posts: 2464
Joined: Sun Dec 09, 2018 1:27 am

Re: Brexit Part IX: Final rush to No Deal

Sun Dec 06, 2020 9:57 am

Dutchy wrote:
A101 wrote:
Dutchy wrote:

Overall it is negative for the UK people and economy.

And did Brexiteers get anything 100% right? Where are the big wins, all the better trade deals and did the UK get the easiest deal in history? You have been out for 10 months now and 4 years after the referendum. Is there any positive result from Brexit? Fine if you critize the Bank of England, but you need to apply the same standard to your religion, otherwise the comment is not serious, just designed to feed your own bias.



in a few weeks we will be finally free of the EU that is a big win in itself


No, no, no, I will not let you get away with that. You might see it as a big "win". We can and have been debated at length this concept of "free", which is ridiculous in itself. But that was not what I talked about, so you conveniently omitted a reaction to the point and started to talk about something else.

So the simple question posed, do you set the same standards for the Brexiteers rhetoric as you do for the Bank of England? Or not?


What I cant say that leaving the EU is a big win


Did we go into a recession as a result of a vote to leave?
 
bennett123
Posts: 10730
Joined: Sun Aug 15, 2004 12:49 am

Re: Brexit Part IX: Final rush to No Deal

Sun Dec 06, 2020 9:59 am

IMO, governance is major issue.

Regardless of what agreement is reached, there will be disputes.

Without a mechanism to resolve those disputes which is acceptable to all parties, any agreement is meaningless.
 
User avatar
Dutchy
Posts: 12341
Joined: Sat Nov 03, 2007 1:25 am

Re: Brexit Part IX: Final rush to No Deal

Sun Dec 06, 2020 10:01 am

A101 wrote:
Dutchy wrote:
So the simple question posed, do you set the same standards for the Brexiteers rhetoric as you do for the Bank of England? Or not?


What I cant say that leaving the EU is a big win


Did we go into a recession as a result of a vote to leave?


So what is it? can't you or won't you answer a simple question posed to you? "So the simple question posed, do you set the same standards for the Brexiteers rhetoric as you do for the Bank of England? Or not?"
Many happy landings, greetings from The Netherlands!
 
User avatar
Number6
Posts: 73
Joined: Thu Aug 30, 2018 8:17 am

Re: Brexit Part IX: Final rush to No Deal

Sun Dec 06, 2020 10:05 am

A101 wrote:

And where did say he will trigger A50 the day after the referenda?


Here is a link to parliaments own record keepers, Hasard, dated February 22nd 2016.

https://publications.parliament.uk/pa/c ... 2-0001.htm

Quote from the publication.

[quote=“David Cameron”]

On the diplomacy, the idea that other European countries would be ready to start a second negotiation is for the birds. Many are under pressure for what they have already agreed. Then there is the legality. I want to spell out this point carefully, because it is important. If the British people vote to leave, there is only one way to bring that about, namely to trigger article 50 of the treaties and begin the process of exit, and the British people would rightly expect that to start straight away. Let me be absolutely clear about how this works. It triggers a two-year time period to negotiate the arrangements for exit. At the end of this period, if no agreement is in place, then exit is automatic unless every one of the 27 other EU member states agrees to a delay.
[/quote]

From Channel 4’s fact check of many Brexit issues.

https://www.channel4.com/news/factcheck ... -all-sides

[quote=“Channel 4”]

David Cameron on triggering Article 50

Before the ballot, Mr Cameron told Parliament: “If the British people vote to leave, there is only one way to bring that about, namely to trigger Article 50 of the treaties and begin the process of exit, and the British people would rightly expect that to start straight away.”

Indeed, his own Treasury’s analysis of what might happen in the event of our departure from the EU was based on the assumption that the process would begin immediately after the vote.

But he reneged on this promise after the referendum, leaving the job to his successor, Theresa May — who eventually began the formal process of leaving the EU some nine months later.
[/quote]

And there are various articles that mention David Cameron’s pledge, after he resigned. So lets not pretend that history is any different.
 
A101
Posts: 2464
Joined: Sun Dec 09, 2018 1:27 am

Re: Brexit Part IX: Final rush to No Deal

Sun Dec 06, 2020 10:24 am

Number6 wrote:
A101 wrote:

And where did say he will trigger A50 the day after the referenda?


Here is a link to parliaments own record keepers, Hasard, dated February 22nd 2016.

https://publications.parliament.uk/pa/c ... 2-0001.htm

Quote from the publication.

[quote=“David Cameron”]

On the diplomacy, the idea that other European countries would be ready to start a second negotiation is for the birds. Many are under pressure for what they have already agreed. Then there is the legality. I want to spell out this point carefully, because it is important. If the British people vote to leave, there is only one way to bring that about, namely to trigger article 50 of the treaties and begin the process of exit, and the British people would rightly expect that to start straight away. Let me be absolutely clear about how this works. It triggers a two-year time period to negotiate the arrangements for exit. At the end of this period, if no agreement is in place, then exit is automatic unless every one of the 27 other EU member states agrees to a delay.


From Channel 4’s fact check of many Brexit issues.

https://www.channel4.com/news/factcheck ... -all-sides

[quote=“Channel 4”]

David Cameron on triggering Article 50

Before the ballot, Mr Cameron told Parliament: “If the British people vote to leave, there is only one way to bring that about, namely to trigger Article 50 of the treaties and begin the process of exit, and the British people would rightly expect that to start straight away.”

Indeed, his own Treasury’s analysis of what might happen in the event of our departure from the EU was based on the assumption that the process would begin immediately after the vote.

But he reneged on this promise after the referendum, leaving the job to his successor, Theresa May — who eventually began the formal process of leaving the EU some nine months later.
[/quote]

And there are various articles that mention David Cameron’s pledge, after he resigned. So lets not pretend that history is any different.[/quote]


I don't see anywhere in that where he says that A50 will be invoked the next day, as you described earlier

As for HM Treasury analysis it says specifically in regards a vote to leave will trigger a recession, not when A50 is invoked
 
bennett123
Posts: 10730
Joined: Sun Aug 15, 2004 12:49 am

Re: Brexit Part IX: Final rush to No Deal

Sun Dec 06, 2020 10:31 am

'The British people would rightly expect that to start straight away' is pretty clear to most people.

Instead we had the farce of trying to negotiate leaving without saying that we WERE leaving.
 
94717
Posts: 2789
Joined: Tue Feb 06, 2007 3:38 am

Re: Brexit Part IX: Final rush to No Deal

Sun Dec 06, 2020 10:57 am

seahawk wrote:
AeroVega wrote:
seahawk wrote:
Amazing people still do not understand Merkel after all this years. When she says that she wants a deal, she means that a good deal would be beneficial for both sides and that would be her preferred outcome. It does not mean that she is willing to make a bad deal though.


Of course Merkel wants a good deal. A good deal for Germany. That's her job.

But a good deal for Germany is not necessarily a good deal for the other members of the EU.


She did clearly say that the interests of all EU members must be considered:

https://www.dw.com/en/angela-merkel-no- ... a-55775382

But at least she is also responsible for Brexit:

https://www.express.co.uk/news/world/13 ... spiegel-eu


After decades of giving UK special offers with rules, budgets etc I think the rest of EU thought enough is enough.
 
94717
Posts: 2789
Joined: Tue Feb 06, 2007 3:38 am

Re: Brexit Part IX: Final rush to No Deal

Sun Dec 06, 2020 11:04 am

A101 wrote:
Number6 wrote:
A101 wrote:

And where did say he will trigger A50 the day after the referenda?


Here is a link to parliaments own record keepers, Hasard, dated February 22nd 2016.

https://publications.parliament.uk/pa/c ... 2-0001.htm

Quote from the publication.

[quote=“David Cameron”]

On the diplomacy, the idea that other European countries would be ready to start a second negotiation is for the birds. Many are under pressure for what they have already agreed. Then there is the legality. I want to spell out this point carefully, because it is important. If the British people vote to leave, there is only one way to bring that about, namely to trigger article 50 of the treaties and begin the process of exit, and the British people would rightly expect that to start straight away. Let me be absolutely clear about how this works. It triggers a two-year time period to negotiate the arrangements for exit. At the end of this period, if no agreement is in place, then exit is automatic unless every one of the 27 other EU member states agrees to a delay.


From Channel 4’s fact check of many Brexit issues.

https://www.channel4.com/news/factcheck ... -all-sides

[quote=“Channel 4”]

David Cameron on triggering Article 50

Before the ballot, Mr Cameron told Parliament: “If the British people vote to leave, there is only one way to bring that about, namely to trigger Article 50 of the treaties and begin the process of exit, and the British people would rightly expect that to start straight away.”

Indeed, his own Treasury’s analysis of what might happen in the event of our departure from the EU was based on the assumption that the process would begin immediately after the vote.

But he reneged on this promise after the referendum, leaving the job to his successor, Theresa May — who eventually began the formal process of leaving the EU some nine months later.


And there are various articles that mention David Cameron’s pledge, after he resigned. So lets not pretend that history is any different.[/quote]


I don't see anywhere in that where he says that A50 will be invoked the next day, as you described earlier

As for HM Treasury analysis it says specifically in regards a vote to leave will trigger a recession, not when A50 is invoked[/quote]

This is pretty clear to everyone. Brexiteers thought that EU would accept to negotiate before A50 which is false. Should have asked an expert?

Also fall of Pound with around 20% is normally to be compared to recession while the UK peoples income got equal lower compared to the workers in the rest of EU.
 
User avatar
Number6
Posts: 73
Joined: Thu Aug 30, 2018 8:17 am

Re: Brexit Part IX: Final rush to No Deal

Sun Dec 06, 2020 11:12 am

From the channel 4 fact check document regarding the treasury analysis.

“ Though it’s worth saying that the prediction was based on the assumption that we would trigger Article 50 immediately after the referendum, which did not happen. We don’t know if Mr Osborne’s prediction would have come true had we begun the process of leaving straight away.”
 
94717
Posts: 2789
Joined: Tue Feb 06, 2007 3:38 am

Re: Brexit Part IX: Final rush to No Deal

Sun Dec 06, 2020 11:27 am

Number6 wrote:
From the channel 4 fact check document regarding the treasury analysis.

“ Though it’s worth saying that the prediction was based on the assumption that we would trigger Article 50 immediately after the referendum, which did not happen. We don’t know if Mr Osborne’s prediction would have come true had we begun the process of leaving straight away.”


UK could not leave before triggering A50. So if the recession was supposed to happen after UK initiated to leave EU that is A50.

If it was supposed to happen when left EU that was a close a year ago. If it supposed to happen when leaving SM that is next month.

After election and triggering A50 (2016) Pound was then 20% less in value.

After leaving EU UK has got the worse performance of G7.

https://www.theguardian.com/business/20 ... p-among-g7

After leaving SM 2021? We soon know....
Last edited by 94717 on Sun Dec 06, 2020 11:33 am, edited 1 time in total.
 
A101
Posts: 2464
Joined: Sun Dec 09, 2018 1:27 am

Re: Brexit Part IX: Final rush to No Deal

Sun Dec 06, 2020 11:30 am

Number6 wrote:
From the channel 4 fact check document regarding the treasury analysis.

“ Though it’s worth saying that the prediction was based on the assumption that we would trigger Article 50 immediately after the referendum, which did not happen. We don’t know if Mr Osborne’s prediction would have come true had we begun the process of leaving straight away.”


Still I don’t see where it stays where you said thatcA50 would be invoked the next day, I have read the treasurer report and it conclusions state a vote to leave will send the UK into a recession in which shock result in recession
 
A101
Posts: 2464
Joined: Sun Dec 09, 2018 1:27 am

Re: Brexit Part IX: Final rush to No Deal

Sun Dec 06, 2020 11:34 am

olle wrote:
Number6 wrote:
From the channel 4 fact check document regarding the treasury analysis.

“ Though it’s worth saying that the prediction was based on the assumption that we would trigger Article 50 immediately after the referendum, which did not happen. We don’t know if Mr Osborne’s prediction would have come true had we begun the process of leaving straight away.”


UK could not leave before triggering A50. So if the recession was supposed to happen after UK initiated to leave EU that is A50.

If it was supposed to happen when left EU that was a close a year ago. If it supposed to happen when leaving SM that is next month.

After leaving EU UK has got the worse performance of G7.

UK to plunge into deepest slump on record with worst GDP drop of G7

Official measure to be declared this week as coronavirus lockdown shrinks GDP by 21% in second quarter



https://www.theguardian.com/business/20 ... p-among-g7



A declining £ does not represent a recession in fact the 2008 recession the USD increased in value

https://business.westernunion.com/en-us ... -recession

A declining currency is not a indication of recession, unlike economic growth shows
 
User avatar
Number6
Posts: 73
Joined: Thu Aug 30, 2018 8:17 am

Re: Brexit Part IX: Final rush to No Deal

Sun Dec 06, 2020 11:38 am

A101 wrote:
Number6 wrote:
From the channel 4 fact check document regarding the treasury analysis.

“ Though it’s worth saying that the prediction was based on the assumption that we would trigger Article 50 immediately after the referendum, which did not happen. We don’t know if Mr Osborne’s prediction would have come true had we begun the process of leaving straight away.”


Still I don’t see where it stays where you said thatcA50 would be invoked the next day, I have read the treasurer report and it conclusions state a vote to leave will send the UK into a recession in which shock result in recession


Then I guess we agree to disagree then. There are plenty of articles that talk about the promise to invoke article 50 immediately should the referendum be won by vote leave camp. If you wish to interpret that in some other way, I can not of course stop you, but your incredibly narrow reading of the situation of the time is most interesting.
 
art
Posts: 3980
Joined: Tue Feb 08, 2005 11:46 am

Re: Brexit Part IX: Final rush to No Deal

Sun Dec 06, 2020 11:47 am

olle wrote:
Also fall of Pound with around 20% is normally to be compared to recession while the UK peoples income got equal lower compared to the workers in the rest of EU.


Is that before all deductions on income?

From memory in the UK there is about 10% deduction from one's earnings purportedly to pay for social benefits (free health care, unemployment pay if you become unemployed, state pension etc) on earnings above about £6,000 a year . Then 20% income tax on all you earn above £12,500 a year up to £37,500 a year at which point it rises to 40%.

How does that compare to average EU tax rates? I recall being offered a job by a Dutch company some 20 years ago where I would have paid 50% of my income in deductions. At the time I was working as a contractor for that Dutch company but paid about 25% in deductions working through my UK company. Unsurprisingly I turned down the offer of employment by the Dutch company.
 
User avatar
flyingturtle
Posts: 6069
Joined: Mon Oct 31, 2011 1:39 pm

Re: Brexit Part IX: Final rush to No Deal

Sun Dec 06, 2020 12:05 pm

December 6th, 1992, was the day when the Swiss voters rejected the European Community membership, and shaped Switzerland for decades and decades and decades. One victim was Swissair, which had to buy smaller EC airlines in order to have unfettered access to European commercial aviation.

Now we have dozens of treaties with the EU, we are practically an EU member, but we have no say in EU policy... shush.
Reading accident reports is what calms me down
 
ltbewr
Posts: 15614
Joined: Thu Jan 29, 2004 1:24 pm

Re: Brexit Part IX: Final rush to No Deal

Sun Dec 06, 2020 1:18 pm

As to the fishing disputes, perhaps we need to think about the writings of Douglas Adams: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/So_Long,_ ... l_the_Fish

As the UK approaches the abyss of Brexit, it will be interesting to see how the USA policy with the UK will be, especially with the upcoming transition from the Trump maladministration to the Biden Presidential Administration. As others have noted, the USA supports a 'no border' policy as to the Republic of Ireland and UK's Northern Ireland status. How will it affect trade for example like with Jaguar Land Rover and BMW's Mini, which rely on parts from the EU, and needs the USA market for their existence. The value of the UK pound, Euro as to the US Dollar will be affected short and long term.
 
A101
Posts: 2464
Joined: Sun Dec 09, 2018 1:27 am

Re: Brexit Part IX: Final rush to No Deal

Sun Dec 06, 2020 6:08 pm

Number6 wrote:
A101 wrote:
Number6 wrote:
From the channel 4 fact check document regarding the treasury analysis.

“ Though it’s worth saying that the prediction was based on the assumption that we would trigger Article 50 immediately after the referendum, which did not happen. We don’t know if Mr Osborne’s prediction would have come true had we begun the process of leaving straight away.”


Still I don’t see where it stays where you said thatcA50 would be invoked the next day, I have read the treasurer report and it conclusions state a vote to leave will send the UK into a recession in which shock result in recession


Then I guess we agree to disagree then. There are plenty of articles that talk about the promise to invoke article 50 immediately should the referendum be won by vote leave camp. If you wish to interpret that in some other way, I can not of course stop you, but your incredibly narrow reading of the situation of the time is most interesting.



The only disagreement we have is your assertion that you said PM Cameron would invoke A50 the next day and the HM Treasury recession report was predicated on invoking A50 the next day following the referenda, when the report actually said we would be in a recession because of a vote to leave, two very different things

As for the articles by the leave campaign to invoke A50 immediately the only people that had a say in that was those in a position of authority to do so and that was the PM and his cabinet.

Both sides of the campaign said things that were basically untrue it was up to the electorate to sort the wheat from the chaff
 
bennett123
Posts: 10730
Joined: Sun Aug 15, 2004 12:49 am

Re: Brexit Part IX: Final rush to No Deal

Sun Dec 06, 2020 6:32 pm

'The British people would rightly expect that to start straight away'.

Actually, reading it again there is no promise that he would trigger A50 at all.
 
94717
Posts: 2789
Joined: Tue Feb 06, 2007 3:38 am

Re: Brexit Part IX: Final rush to No Deal

Sun Dec 06, 2020 6:50 pm

bennett123 wrote:
'The British people would rightly expect that to start straight away'.

Actually, reading it again there is no promise that he would trigger A50 at all.


This is like the 350 million per week on the infamous bus. It actually never said Brexit was going to meant 350 million per week to NHS but people understood it that way and noone made in clear that it was just something close to a joke.

Cameron presented to the UK people that Brexit meant A50 as the only option. People understood it that way.

Brexiteers presented that UK under EU rule had performing worse economically then it should have been doing outside and now UK had the chance to increase growth. UK central bank said it was going to perform bad as they still say. People had the chance to understand both messages.

Right now UK is performing under Covid much worse economically then G7 and rest of Europe except Spain totally depending of tourists. Is that because of Brexit?
 
User avatar
Aesma
Posts: 14088
Joined: Sat Nov 14, 2009 6:14 am

Re: Brexit Part IX: Final rush to No Deal

Sun Dec 06, 2020 8:05 pm

I've read on the Express website some political guy arguing that "Merkel is the real Brexit villain", not for her current stance, but for not giving in on immigration to Cameron, who needed something more to win the referendum.

It's really strange to read this. First of all, a Brexiter basically saying that he wishes Brexit wouldn't have happened... But then, the problem some in the UK had/have wasn't about "immigration" it was about freedom of movement, which is a pillar of the EU. And of course, Merkel had no special power to change that, it would have needed a new treaty, with all 28 countries agreeing and their parliaments/people voting for it (referendum in France anyone ?).

The concessions Cameron got were already causing issues in the rest of the EU, yet in the UK people were told he got nothing...
New Technology is the name we give to stuff that doesn't work yet. Douglas Adams
 
94717
Posts: 2789
Joined: Tue Feb 06, 2007 3:38 am

Re: Brexit Part IX: Final rush to No Deal

Sun Dec 06, 2020 8:15 pm

Aesma wrote:
I've read on the Express website some political guy arguing that "Merkel is the real Brexit villain", not for her current stance, but for not giving in on immigration to Cameron, who needed something more to win the referendum.

It's really strange to read this. First of all, a Brexiter basically saying that he wishes Brexit wouldn't have happened... But then, the problem some in the UK had/have wasn't about "immigration" it was about freedom of movement, which is a pillar of the EU. And of course, Merkel had no special power to change that, it would have needed a new treaty, with all 28 countries agreeing and their parliaments/people voting for it (referendum in France anyone ?).

The concessions Cameron got were already causing issues in the rest of the EU, yet in the UK people were told he got nothing...


Express and Brexiteers still seems to believe that Fuhrer Merkel rules EU. Right now it seems rather that it is France and Macron that might put the Veto.
 
LJ
Posts: 5463
Joined: Wed Nov 17, 1999 8:28 pm

Re: Brexit Part IX: Final rush to No Deal

Mon Dec 07, 2020 6:56 am

Seems that one group (smugglers) will benefit from Brexit as many small UK ports don't have a clue on what to do as of January 1st 2021. Any smart smuggler would seize this opportunity and divert trade from a large port to such a small port.

https://www.politico.eu/article/uk-ports-brexit-customs-transition-period/

I argued a few days ago that companies should have been prepared as there is some information out there (usually from the EU), but didn't know that the situation is so bad. One would expect that the UK government would have informed all UK ports on the exact customs processes as they would be applicable regardless of a deal or no-deal. Then again, it seems that the UK government doesn't like details and doesn't have the civil servant organization, which the EU does have.
 
gkirk
Posts: 23449
Joined: Thu Jun 15, 2000 3:29 am

Re: Brexit Part IX: Final rush to No Deal

Mon Dec 07, 2020 8:34 am

LJ wrote:
Seems that one group (smugglers) will benefit from Brexit as many small UK ports don't have a clue on what to do as of January 1st 2021. Any smart smuggler would seize this opportunity and divert trade from a large port to such a small port.

https://www.politico.eu/article/uk-ports-brexit-customs-transition-period/

I argued a few days ago that companies should have been prepared as there is some information out there (usually from the EU), but didn't know that the situation is so bad. One would expect that the UK government would have informed all UK ports on the exact customs processes as they would be applicable regardless of a deal or no-deal. Then again, it seems that the UK government doesn't like details and doesn't have the civil servant organization, which the EU does have.


Oh it does have the civil servants, but no doubt, they havent been told whats going on yet either, so no way of getting the info to the ports.

What an utter shambles, from a bunch of cockwombles in Westminster.
When you hear the noise of the Tartan Army Boys, we'll be coming down the road!
 
Reinhardt
Posts: 413
Joined: Thu Feb 22, 2018 5:05 pm

Re: Brexit Part IX: Final rush to No Deal

Mon Dec 07, 2020 9:36 am

Tugger wrote:
Does anyone here actually have what the terms at issue actually are? Not guessing but the actual issues and what and why they can't be agreed to? I know fishing is one.

Tugg


As others have said ..seems to be that the EU wants the UK to agree to stay level (with currently EU regulations and any future increases) in regard to enironmental laws, workers rights, subsidies etc. In other words, anything that the UK could have lower standards in, in order to gain an advantage over the EU for getting trade deals in other markets. Then the EU wants some sort of mechanism that if the UK breaches that agreement there are consequences e.g tarrifs on imported UK product. The arguement from the EU's side is that the UK is and will remain a major market for import + export (more so that anyone else), so there should be a level playing field.


Makes complete sense of course, and since the UK govenment promised no regulations would be reduced in these areas they shouldn't have a problem with it. But I'm sure the die hard socialist brexiteers hate the idea of not being able to give subsidies to certain industries, and the die hard right wing brexiteers won't accept they can't have the ability to strip workers rights, pollute more, import US food etc, anything that could enrich themselves or friends/ families. Harsh? Not based on what's happened the last year with the current govenment.


Fishing is irrelevant, as I've said for ages.. Tiny portion of UK GDP (Harrods by itself provides more), tiny portion of UK employed. Brexiteers argue it's a growth market opportunity. Well, there is a finite about of fish in the sea, and a finate about of Brits willing to eat what is caught. No sane govenment can put at risk the vast majority of sections of the economy (services, farming, high end manufacturing) for fishing. It's purely symbolism/ nationalism.
Last edited by Reinhardt on Mon Dec 07, 2020 9:40 am, edited 1 time in total.
 
T4thH
Posts: 1186
Joined: Thu Jun 06, 2019 11:17 pm

Re: Brexit Part IX: Final rush to No Deal

Mon Dec 07, 2020 9:39 am

LJ wrote:
Seems that one group (smugglers) will benefit from Brexit as many small UK ports don't have a clue on what to do as of January 1st 2021. Any smart smuggler would seize this opportunity and divert trade from a large port to such a small port.

https://www.politico.eu/article/uk-ports-brexit-customs-transition-period/

I argued a few days ago that companies should have been prepared as there is some information out there (usually from the EU), but didn't know that the situation is so bad. One would expect that the UK government would have informed all UK ports on the exact customs processes as they would be applicable regardless of a deal or no-deal. Then again, it seems that the UK government doesn't like details and doesn't have the civil servant organization, which the EU does have.


But please note, it is only important, this will not harm the EU in any circumstance. So I hope, it will not, so that no goods will be transferred from UK to EU uncontrolled.
The rest has not to care us (in the EU).
 
User avatar
flyingturtle
Posts: 6069
Joined: Mon Oct 31, 2011 1:39 pm

Re: Brexit Part IX: Final rush to No Deal

Mon Dec 07, 2020 11:46 am

Is today the last day for any negotiations?

I remember reading that on Thursday, the treaty will be signed in Brussels - if there is one.
Reading accident reports is what calms me down
 
User avatar
Aesma
Posts: 14088
Joined: Sat Nov 14, 2009 6:14 am

Re: Brexit Part IX: Final rush to No Deal

Mon Dec 07, 2020 2:03 pm

The rumor mills say that tonight BoJo will announce a no deal, blaming everyone, their mother, but himself, for the result. That will be entertaining for sure.
New Technology is the name we give to stuff that doesn't work yet. Douglas Adams
 
sabenapilot
Posts: 3680
Joined: Sat Feb 26, 2000 6:18 pm

Re: Brexit Part IX: Final rush to No Deal

Mon Dec 07, 2020 2:26 pm

Aesma wrote:
The rumor mills say that tonight BoJo will announce a no deal, blaming everyone, their mother, but himself, for the result. That will be entertaining for sure.


After which he will try to demonstrate how fabulous Britain will do without a deal, try to achieve a titanic succes in trade negotiations with others like the US, learn that things aren't as easy after all with them too and come back to beg for a deal in a couple of months anyway, even if it is to make other deals like the one with the US possible at all.

As has always been said by the EU, Brexit will have consequences; as long as the UK isn't willing to accept those, it's not going to get a deal ever...
If the UK wants access to the SM, it's going to have to play by its rules: It's very much the seller who sets the terms here, not the buyer unfortunately.
It's simply astonishing that after more than 4 years of all of this the UK government still genuinely expects the EU to blink at the last minute: it hasn't happened at any of the previous deadlines and it's not going to happen now either.

I just read that the British government is planning on sending miltary planes to Belgium to pick up doses of the COVID vacine mass produced there to bypass the mess at the UK border; that is if Belgium let's them, because a no deal will seriously affect it's economy, so why should it be helpful on this front? It could impose individual pre-clearance for each such flight since the UK is a third country as from Jan 1st. Others may stand by their sovereignty too, of course. :stirthepot:
 
User avatar
Dano1977
Posts: 745
Joined: Wed Jun 25, 2008 2:49 pm

Re: Brexit Part IX: Final rush to No Deal

Mon Dec 07, 2020 2:45 pm

Aesma wrote:
The rumor mills say that tonight BoJo will announce a no deal, blaming everyone, their mother, but himself, for the result. That will be entertaining for sure.



I don't think Boris has the "minerals" to walk away without a deal.

I think Boris will fold. It will hurt him with his Brexiteer support but win him the support of industry.

He then has 3.5 years to make a success of things. No Tory will look to over throw him for a leadership challenge in the next 12 months as it's a poison chalice.
The average EU official - he has the organising ability of the Italians, the flexibility of the Germans and the modesty of the French. And that's topped up by the imagination of the Belgians, the generosity of the Dutch.

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: lentokone, petertenthije and 47 guests

Popular Searches On Airliners.net

Top Photos of Last:   24 Hours  •  48 Hours  •  7 Days  •  30 Days  •  180 Days  •  365 Days  •  All Time

Military Aircraft Every type from fighters to helicopters from air forces around the globe

Classic Airliners Props and jets from the good old days

Flight Decks Views from inside the cockpit

Aircraft Cabins Passenger cabin shots showing seat arrangements as well as cargo aircraft interior

Cargo Aircraft Pictures of great freighter aircraft

Government Aircraft Aircraft flying government officials

Helicopters Our large helicopter section. Both military and civil versions

Blimps / Airships Everything from the Goodyear blimp to the Zeppelin

Night Photos Beautiful shots taken while the sun is below the horizon

Accidents Accident, incident and crash related photos

Air to Air Photos taken by airborne photographers of airborne aircraft

Special Paint Schemes Aircraft painted in beautiful and original liveries

Airport Overviews Airport overviews from the air or ground

Tails and Winglets Tail and Winglet closeups with beautiful airline logos