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olle
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Re: Brexit Part IX: Final rush to No Deal

Wed Nov 25, 2020 6:51 am

Biden says no trade deal if there is a border on the Irish Island.

https://www.express.co.uk/news/politics ... lks-latest

Mr Blinken the new Security advisor;

Speaking on the Pod Save the World podcast Mr Blinken described the Brexit process as "the dog that caught the car and then the car goes into reverse and runs over the dog - it's a total mess".
 
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Dutchy
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Re: Brexit Part IX: Final rush to No Deal

Wed Nov 25, 2020 7:52 am

as aspected. So no US and EU trade deal if the current UK government decides to go through with the IMB. The US and EU. are also sovereign, so they can decide on their own what kind of deal is acceptable and which isn't and take that view on any measure they like.

It is up to the sovereign UK to decide how they would like to proceed given these new circumstances.
Many happy landings, greetings from The Netherlands!
 
LJ
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Re: Brexit Part IX: Final rush to No Deal

Wed Nov 25, 2020 7:56 am

French customs did a test to check if their post-Brexit processes work yesterday between 06:00 - 15:00. The result: a 5 mile long queue of lorries wanting to go through the Eurotunnel. The estimation is that a no-deal will worsen the queues as the time needed to process 1 lorry will go up from the current 70 seconds.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2020/nov/24/trial-of-brexit-border-checks-causes-five-mile-lorry-queues-in-kent

Meanwhile UK travel companies have to make a decision what to do with UK staff for their ski holiday destinations in Europe. Either ensure their staff is in before the deadline or run the risk of not having UK staff at the ski resorts.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2020/nov/22/british-ski-workers-set-to-lose-seasonal-jobs-after-brexit
 
A101
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Re: Brexit Part IX: Final rush to No Deal

Wed Nov 25, 2020 10:18 am

Dutchy wrote:
as aspected. So no US and EU trade deal if the current UK government decides to go through with the IMB. The US and EU. are also sovereign, so they can decide on their own what kind of deal is acceptable and which isn't and take that view on any measure they like.

It is up to the sovereign UK to decide how they would like to proceed given these new circumstances.



Don’t know what the UKGov will do, by my suggestion would be to give them the two fingered salute :D
 
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Dutchy
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Re: Brexit Part IX: Final rush to No Deal

Wed Nov 25, 2020 10:22 am

A101 wrote:
Dutchy wrote:
as aspected. So no US and EU trade deal if the current UK government decides to go through with the IMB. The US and EU. are also sovereign, so they can decide on their own what kind of deal is acceptable and which isn't and take that view on any measure they like.

It is up to the sovereign UK to decide how they would like to proceed given these new circumstances.



Don’t know what the UKGov will do, by my suggestion would be to give them the two fingered salute :D


Yeah, I know, you want the North Korea style deal.
Many happy landings, greetings from The Netherlands!
 
olle
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Re: Brexit Part IX: Final rush to No Deal

Wed Nov 25, 2020 11:53 am

LJ wrote:
French customs did a test to check if their post-Brexit processes work yesterday between 06:00 - 15:00. The result: a 5 mile long queue of lorries wanting to go through the Eurotunnel. The estimation is that a no-deal will worsen the queues as the time needed to process 1 lorry will go up from the current 70 seconds.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2020/nov/24/trial-of-brexit-border-checks-causes-five-mile-lorry-queues-in-kent

Meanwhile UK travel companies have to make a decision what to do with UK staff for their ski holiday destinations in Europe. Either ensure their staff is in before the deadline or run the risk of not having UK staff at the ski resorts.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2020/nov/22/british-ski-workers-set-to-lose-seasonal-jobs-after-brexit



Regarding UK personal working inside EU. I can imagine that many of those workers right now is checking if they have some family in Ireland in order to get a EU passport. This is the effect of loosing an EU passport and free movement of labor. This has been known since before the election.

Regarding Kent, has the problem of toilets for the drivers been fixed yet? Somewhere those drivers will do what they need to do ;-)
 
Reinhardt
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Re: Brexit Part IX: Final rush to No Deal

Wed Nov 25, 2020 12:03 pm

olle wrote:

Regarding UK personal working inside EU. I can imagine that many of those workers right now is checking if they have some family in Ireland in order to get a EU passport. This is the effect of loosing an EU passport and free movement of labor. This has been known since before the election.


I'm still waiting on my permanent residency permit (live in Germany). But at least my residency rights are guaranteed here.

olle wrote:
Regarding Kent, has the problem of toilets for the drivers been fixed yet? Somewhere those drivers will do what they need to do ;-)


I read they were planning on just putting portaloos at various points on the M20.



So no deal with the EU is ok and no deal with the US is ok for brexiteers now. Wonderful. Just Canada and some ex British empire countries to trade with easily. That'll work.
 
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Dutchy
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Re: Brexit Part IX: Final rush to No Deal

Wed Nov 25, 2020 12:30 pm

Yes, that's why Kent will be a giant parking lot and there needs to be permitted to enter Kent.
Many happy landings, greetings from The Netherlands!
 
sabenapilot
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Re: Brexit Part IX: Final rush to No Deal

Wed Nov 25, 2020 2:28 pm

The EBA has just given a big blow to the City of London with a very strict interpretation of its rules, effectively making it all but impossilble for the UK to oversee any derivate activities performed on behalf of customers in the EU, from the City.

Passporting for British banks was off the table a long time ago as was equivalence, but now mutual recognition will be lost too, meaning a British bank can not work for a EU customer... unless this bank applies EU rules.

In short: British banks need to keep following all EU rules also in the UK if they want to serve EU customers.
 
LJ
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Re: Brexit Part IX: Final rush to No Deal

Wed Nov 25, 2020 2:56 pm

sabenapilot wrote:
The EBA has just given a big blow to the City of London with a very strict interpretation of its rules, effectively making it all but impossilble for the UK to oversee any derivate activities performed on behalf of customers in the EU, from the City.

Passporting for British banks was off the table a long time ago as was equivalence, but now mutual recognition will be lost too, meaning a British bank can not work for a EU customer... unless this bank applies EU rules.

In short: British banks need to keep following all EU rules also in the UK if they want to serve EU customers.


The UK has never been bound by all of the EBA regulation as many was for Euro countries only. There has never been much of regulatory equivalence as BoE has been much more lenient towards the financial industry. Hence why most of the business will stay in London. Now the UK is out of the EU, EBA can exercise some power over the City as the UK cannot hide under the EU umbrella (which is what they did). Do realize that the City is fully aware that they would loose out. This news is not new for those working in the industry. The only thing is that they now know that their lobby didn't work (not that they probably expected it to work),
 
olle
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Re: Brexit Part IX: Final rush to No Deal

Wed Nov 25, 2020 3:17 pm

LJ wrote:
sabenapilot wrote:
The EBA has just given a big blow to the City of London with a very strict interpretation of its rules, effectively making it all but impossilble for the UK to oversee any derivate activities performed on behalf of customers in the EU, from the City.

Passporting for British banks was off the table a long time ago as was equivalence, but now mutual recognition will be lost too, meaning a British bank can not work for a EU customer... unless this bank applies EU rules.

In short: British banks need to keep following all EU rules also in the UK if they want to serve EU customers.


The UK has never been bound by all of the EBA regulation as many was for Euro countries only. There has never been much of regulatory equivalence as BoE has been much more lenient towards the financial industry. Hence why most of the business will stay in London. Now the UK is out of the EU, EBA can exercise some power over the City as the UK cannot hide under the EU umbrella (which is what they did). Do realize that the City is fully aware that they would loose out. This news is not new for those working in the industry. The only thing is that they now know that their lobby didn't work (not that they probably expected it to work),


I am sure that London Financial industry will survive. The question will be will it continue to expand? Will it even decrease?

This in combination with covid working from home, how will the city office property market be effected?
 
sabenapilot
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Re: Brexit Part IX: Final rush to No Deal

Wed Nov 25, 2020 3:23 pm

Official statement on the final decision by the ESMA in English:

https://www.esma.europa.eu/sites/defaul ... _final.pdf

Conclusion: The EU does not recognize the UK rules, so a bank can do no business for EU customers from the UK; those activities will have to move to the EU or to any other third country who's rules are recognized by the ESMA and EBA...
 
LJ
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Re: Brexit Part IX: Final rush to No Deal

Thu Nov 26, 2020 8:04 am

olle wrote:
I am sure that London Financial industry will survive. The question will be will it continue to expand? Will it even decrease?


It will decrease in the short term, but in the end it will expand, just like the financial industry in the EU.

olle wrote:
This in combination with covid working from home, how will the city office property market be effected?


It's the UK, though they're learning to work at home it will never be as in some EU countries where companies already decided that they don't need as much office space as they currently have. In some countries (not all) COVID-19 definitely opened the eyes in relation to work from home (it's much cheaper). However, this is unrelated to Brexit (as the traders and some senior staff must be located in the EU and employed by an EU entity).
 
olle
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Re: Brexit Part IX: Final rush to No Deal

Thu Nov 26, 2020 11:12 am

LJ wrote:
olle wrote:
I am sure that London Financial industry will survive. The question will be will it continue to expand? Will it even decrease?


It will decrease in the short term, but in the end it will expand, just like the financial industry in the EU.

olle wrote:
This in combination with covid working from home, how will the city office property market be effected?


It's the UK, though they're learning to work at home it will never be as in some EU countries where companies already decided that they don't need as much office space as they currently have. In some countries (not all) COVID-19 definitely opened the eyes in relation to work from home (it's much cheaper). However, this is unrelated to Brexit (as the traders and some senior staff must be located in the EU and employed by an EU entity).


Will this be an disadvantage to attract skilled international work force?
 
LJ
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Re: Brexit Part IX: Final rush to No Deal

Thu Nov 26, 2020 4:26 pm

olle wrote:
Will this be an disadvantage to attract skilled international work force?


I don't think your average high flyer City financial consultant/trader is interested in working from home.Those types seem to like working in the office (if they're there). The City is full of those types (just as New York).
 
vrbarreto
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Re: Brexit Part IX: Final rush to No Deal

Thu Nov 26, 2020 4:36 pm

Reinhardt wrote:
olle wrote:

Regarding UK personal working inside EU. I can imagine that many of those workers right now is checking if they have some family in Ireland in order to get a EU passport. This is the effect of loosing an EU passport and free movement of labor. This has been known since before the election.


I'm still waiting on my permanent residency permit (live in Germany). But at least my residency rights are guaranteed here.

olle wrote:
Regarding Kent, has the problem of toilets for the drivers been fixed yet? Somewhere those drivers will do what they need to do ;-)


I read they were planning on just putting portaloos at various points on the M20.



So no deal with the EU is ok and no deal with the US is ok for brexiteers now. Wonderful. Just Canada and some ex British empire countries to trade with easily. That'll work.


I swapped my eu citizen residency permit for a 3rd party citizen one last month. Also swapped my UK licence for a slovak one.. Gained a motorbike entitlement but lost my minibus and small lorry ones.. Oh well..

The portaloos are temporarily up. The Nigel Farage memorial portaloos...
 
olle
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Re: Brexit Part IX: Final rush to No Deal

Thu Nov 26, 2020 5:22 pm

Only EU passport holder to play prins william

https://www.theguardian.com/film/2020/n ... en-stewart
 
JJJ
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Re: Brexit Part IX: Final rush to No Deal

Fri Nov 27, 2020 11:55 am

No longer bound by their freedom of movement agreement with the EU, Switzerland sets a 3500 yearly quota for British inmigrants.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/eu ... story.html
 
olle
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Re: Brexit Part IX: Final rush to No Deal

Fri Nov 27, 2020 1:05 pm

JJJ wrote:
No longer bound by their freedom of movement agreement with the EU, Switzerland sets a 3500 yearly quota for British inmigrants.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/eu ... story.html


In practice this will limit the applications for UK citizen to work in for example ski resorts to close 0 if not the companies specific ask for a specific individual. Even then I suppose the application position will be verified against local applications first.
 
LJ
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Re: Brexit Part IX: Final rush to No Deal

Fri Nov 27, 2020 5:00 pm

I woudn't be surprised if Barnier returns to the mainland quickly. Seems that a no-deal is nnow most likely.

https://www.express.co.uk/news/politics/1365509/Brexit-news-UK-EU-fishing-compromise-Michel-Barnier-David-Frost-trade-talks-latest

BTW the GBP is diving at the moment (GBP/EUR from 1.11715 to 1.11278 in 45 minutes).
 
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Dutchy
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Re: Brexit Part IX: Final rush to No Deal

Mon Nov 30, 2020 9:00 pm

Many happy landings, greetings from The Netherlands!
 
AeroVega
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Re: Brexit Part IX: Final rush to No Deal

Wed Dec 02, 2020 9:26 pm

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/20 ... es-says-eu

Boris Johnson has lowered his Brexit demands by asking EU fishing fleets to hand over up to 60% of the value of stocks it takes from British waters


And so the British game of giving in on fish as a ruse to gain much more substantial compromises on level playing field from the EU has begun...
 
olle
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Re: Brexit Part IX: Final rush to No Deal

Wed Dec 02, 2020 9:52 pm

AeroVega wrote:
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2020/dec/02/brexit-uk-has-lowered-demands-on-fish-catches-says-eu

Boris Johnson has lowered his Brexit demands by asking EU fishing fleets to hand over up to 60% of the value of stocks it takes from British waters


And so the British game of giving in on fish as a ruse to gain much more substantial compromises on level playing field from the EU has begun...


Before Monday every thing will be set for deal or no deal.
 
olle
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Re: Brexit Part IX: Final rush to No Deal

Thu Dec 03, 2020 6:37 am

this is a rather funny article;

https://www.express.co.uk/news/politics ... avid-frost

The new global UK diverts exports from UK to other part of the world. 90% of the markets is outside EU.

It also states that exports has been falling 8.7% per year since 2016. No deal planning in full speed it seems. To which markets has this exports been diverted?

Which other exporters suppliers has gained by the lack of UK exports? The Germans, the Swedes?
 
LJ
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Re: Brexit Part IX: Final rush to No Deal

Thu Dec 03, 2020 8:41 am

olle wrote:
this is a rather funny article;

https://www.express.co.uk/news/politics ... avid-frost

The new global UK diverts exports from UK to other part of the world. 90% of the markets is outside EU.

It also states that exports has been falling 8.7% per year since 2016. No deal planning in full speed it seems. To which markets has this exports been diverted?

Which other exporters suppliers has gained by the lack of UK exports? The Germans, the Swedes?


The more important question, how do they transport their goods to their overseas customers? If the goods still go via an EU port (for example Antwerp or Rotterdam) one still has to deal with the EU. Even if one doesn't need the documentation of the goods to enter the EU, one still has the hassle and possible queues before the lorry can board the ferries if the goods are transported to Antwerp/Rotterdam by road.

The reason why trade with the EU is down is that EU importers have changed their supply chain as well. Thus indeed a good sign if one looks at it from an EU perspective.

BTW the comment section of the Express is sometimes very entertaining. Yesterday someone argued that Israel could supply all the oranges currently purchased from the EU (Spain). When asked about transport the commentator proposed airfreight. Though it's not very uncommon for vegetables and fruit to be transported by air (for example asparagus and green beans in winter are transported by air) it usually is for premium vegetables/fruit and does increase the price. Moreover, one can wonder if it makes sense to transport oranges by air as it's relatively heavy and cheap (from a unit perspective). Then again, it seems that everybody in the UK is willing to pay a premium to get its stuff from outside the EU (which BTW will be beneficial for Europeans as they get initially cheaper oranges).
 
JJJ
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Re: Brexit Part IX: Final rush to No Deal

Thu Dec 03, 2020 8:57 am

LJ wrote:
olle wrote:
this is a rather funny article;

https://www.express.co.uk/news/politics ... avid-frost

The new global UK diverts exports from UK to other part of the world. 90% of the markets is outside EU.

It also states that exports has been falling 8.7% per year since 2016. No deal planning in full speed it seems. To which markets has this exports been diverted?

Which other exporters suppliers has gained by the lack of UK exports? The Germans, the Swedes?


The more important question, how do they transport their goods to their overseas customers? If the goods still go via an EU port (for example Antwerp or Rotterdam) one still has to deal with the EU.


For the most part it will be loaded in containers then shipped to Rotterdam, Zeebrugge, etc. so effectively bypassing the customs side of the EU.

It won't do anything to alleviate congestion in British ports though. Felixstowe is chronically congested and the situation will just make it worse.
 
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SomebodyInTLS
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Re: Brexit Part IX: Final rush to No Deal

Thu Dec 03, 2020 1:42 pm

JJJ wrote:
For the most part it will be loaded in containers then shipped to Rotterdam, Zeebrugge, etc. so effectively bypassing the customs side of the EU.

It won't do anything to alleviate congestion in British ports though. Felixstowe is chronically congested and the situation will just make it worse.


Time to open a new megaport in Exmouth, to go with the six-runway expansion of Exeter airport... ;)
"As with most things related to aircraft design, it's all about the trade-offs and much more nuanced than A.net likes to make out."
 
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Aesma
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Re: Brexit Part IX: Final rush to No Deal

Fri Dec 04, 2020 9:40 am

I think the EU should stay firm about level playing field, but at the same time I'm not too worried about it. I don't believe for one second that the Tories want to subsidise anything, and it will be difficult for them to lower labor standards significantly, they're already appaling in the UK. My father is convinced we're going to get screwed by the bloody English, though.

Also, one thing Trump showed other politicians, is that if you're convinced a trade deal is bad, you can always rip it up at any time...

Now read this, it's pretty chilling : Brexit stems from a civil war in capitalism – we are all just collateral damage

The people behind Brexit are not democracy loving, they would be fine in a dictatorship, as long as they're free to make money, nothing else matters. I wonder how they can even sleep at night, they must be soulless (in a non religious way).
New Technology is the name we give to stuff that doesn't work yet. Douglas Adams
 
Reinhardt
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Re: Brexit Part IX: Final rush to No Deal

Fri Dec 04, 2020 11:20 am

LJ wrote:
BTW the comment section of the Express is sometimes very entertaining. Yesterday someone argued that Israel could supply all the oranges currently purchased from the EU (Spain). When asked about transport the commentator proposed airfreight. Though it's not very uncommon for vegetables and fruit to be transported by air (for example asparagus and green beans in winter are transported by air) it usually is for premium vegetables/fruit and does increase the price. Moreover, one can wonder if it makes sense to transport oranges by air as it's relatively heavy and cheap (from a unit perspective)..


Exactly as you said oranges are relatively heavy and not a premium product. Freight costs will be high, much higher than current levels.


LJ wrote:
Then again, it seems that everybody in the UK is willing to pay a premium to get its stuff from outside the EU (which BTW will be beneficial for Europeans as they get initially cheaper oranges).


Fake news, you're a remoaner! Have faith! Things won't be more expensive, they'll be cheaper. And we can export more outside of the EU, bla bla bla.

When it actually happens - things are more expensive and there is no cheaper alternative option on a product. That's when it'll start to hurt. I'm sure they'll still blame the EU for it, but they'll feel it at the checkout.



In other news, all the Brexiteers + JRM + John Redwood are doing the rounds on TV + Radio + Twitter telling the world the UK is the first to roll out a vaccine to Covid, and that it was only possible BECAUSE of Brexit. Which is a flat out lie. I guess they are that desperate for some sign of something good to come from Brexit since there is no sign of anything else coming.

Also, the lorry park in Kent? It's flooded. Not the other one, but the big one. So it's not available to use until February or March.
 
art
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Re: Brexit Part IX: Final rush to No Deal

Fri Dec 04, 2020 12:46 pm

Reinhardt wrote:
In other news, all the Brexiteers + JRM + John Redwood are doing the rounds on TV + Radio + Twitter telling the world the UK is the first to roll out a vaccine to Covid, and that it was only possible BECAUSE of Brexit. Which is a flat out lie.


So will approval of vaccines for emergency use in the EU be handled by individual countries?
 
Reinhardt
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Re: Brexit Part IX: Final rush to No Deal

Fri Dec 04, 2020 1:30 pm

art wrote:
Reinhardt wrote:
In other news, all the Brexiteers + JRM + John Redwood are doing the rounds on TV + Radio + Twitter telling the world the UK is the first to roll out a vaccine to Covid, and that it was only possible BECAUSE of Brexit. Which is a flat out lie.


So will approval of vaccines for emergency use in the EU be handled by individual countries?


It seems they've decided together not to, but they could have done if they wanted.

The MHRA studied the results of the trials as they went along, looking at the data on a continuing basis and not just at the end. The EMA was of course based in London but moved to the Netherlands. Some staff stayed in the UK and went to the MHRA (https://www.gov.uk/government/organisat ... ory-agency) instead of moving, so actually the UK retained some very good people. I understand the EMA has struggled a bit to replace them as quickly as they would have liked. If the EMA had remained in the UK then probably all of the EU would have approved together.

But it's certainly not because of Brexit it was authorised faster. Existing leglislation allowed it (for all EU countries).
 
ChrisKen
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Re: Brexit Part IX: Final rush to No Deal

Fri Dec 04, 2020 1:34 pm

art wrote:
Reinhardt wrote:
In other news, all the Brexiteers + JRM + John Redwood are doing the rounds on TV + Radio + Twitter telling the world the UK is the first to roll out a vaccine to Covid, and that it was only possible BECAUSE of Brexit. Which is a flat out lie.


So will approval of vaccines for emergency use in the EU be handled by individual countries?

The regulator which approved the use of the vaccine in the UK, specifically indicated the quick approval was achieved using EU law at the original press conference. The brexitards claiming otherwise (ie it was because of brexit) are just plain lying.
Each country of the EU will be able to approve/reject if they so desire (although they'll probably do it as a block). As is the case with most "unelected, evil, dictating" EU laws and directives.
 
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Aesma
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Re: Brexit Part IX: Final rush to No Deal

Fri Dec 04, 2020 3:13 pm

Basically the EU wants to do a bit more due diligence (we're talking a few weeks) to assuage people's concerns. The UK is taking the risk of an anti vaxx backlash.
New Technology is the name we give to stuff that doesn't work yet. Douglas Adams
 
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par13del
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Re: Brexit Part IX: Final rush to No Deal

Fri Dec 04, 2020 3:59 pm

Aesma wrote:
Basically the EU wants to do a bit more due diligence (we're talking a few weeks) to assuage people's concerns. The UK is taking the risk of an anti vaxx backlash.

So the US expert says the same and there is great backlash that he walks back his comments, the EU says and does the same thing no issue, and folks say the UK is anti-EU and pro-US.....hhmmmmm....
 
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Aesma
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Re: Brexit Part IX: Final rush to No Deal

Fri Dec 04, 2020 4:33 pm

I said this not the EU, the EU is doing, not saying, AFAIK.
New Technology is the name we give to stuff that doesn't work yet. Douglas Adams
 
LJ
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Re: Brexit Part IX: Final rush to No Deal

Fri Dec 04, 2020 6:27 pm

Reinhardt wrote:

LJ wrote:
Then again, it seems that everybody in the UK is willing to pay a premium to get its stuff from outside the EU (which BTW will be beneficial for Europeans as they get initially cheaper oranges).


When it actually happens - things are more expensive and there is no cheaper alternative option on a product. That's when it'll start to hurt. I'm sure they'll still blame the EU for it, but they'll feel it at the checkout.


But the average Express commentator is also willing to pay the increased price. Haven't you learned it by now: Sovereignty before Economy!!!! :smile:

Reinhardt wrote:
Also, the lorry park in Kent? It's flooded. Not the other one, but the big one. So it's not available to use until February or March.


Do you refer to the reports at the beginning of November? I recall that "flooding" is a little overstatement, but "water issues" do play a role.
https://www.kentonline.co.uk/ashford/news/heavy-rain-holds-up-brexit-lorry-park-construction-236994/
 
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Dutchy
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Re: Brexit Part IX: Final rush to No Deal

Fri Dec 04, 2020 9:27 pm

Michel Barnier wrote:
After one week of intense negotiations in London, together with @DavidGHFrost, we agreed today that the conditions for an agreement are not met, due to significant divergences on level playing field, governance and fisheries.


Link

Next round: political level.
Many happy landings, greetings from The Netherlands!
 
LJ
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Re: Brexit Part IX: Final rush to No Deal

Fri Dec 04, 2020 10:13 pm

Dutchy wrote:
Michel Barnier wrote:
After one week of intense negotiations in London, together with @DavidGHFrost, we agreed today that the conditions for an agreement are not met, due to significant divergences on level playing field, governance and fisheries.


Link

Next round: political level.


I sincerly wonder how the call between Ursula von Leyen and Boris Johnson will go.Ursula von Leyen knows she has nothing more on offer than Barnier, thus basically this is probably more a courtesy call than something deal breaking. Then again, oone doesn't know these days.
 
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Dutchy
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Re: Brexit Part IX: Final rush to No Deal

Sat Dec 05, 2020 9:42 am

LJ wrote:
Dutchy wrote:
Michel Barnier wrote:
After one week of intense negotiations in London, together with @DavidGHFrost, we agreed today that the conditions for an agreement are not met, due to significant divergences on level playing field, governance and fisheries.


Link

Next round: political level.


I sincerly wonder how the call between Ursula von Leyen and Boris Johnson will go.Ursula von Leyen knows she has nothing more on offer than Barnier, thus basically this is probably more a courtesy call than something deal breaking. Then again, oone doesn't know these days.


No but Johnson has the power to change the position of the UK. So if we will see a breakthrough, we will see the UK giving in on all practical levels and the UK will. be thrown a bone which they can sell to the brexitremist as a victory over the EU.

Bit the same as we see with the vaccine, Rees Mogg claimed a big victory, but at the same time, the real numbers in the UK of covid cases and death are higher than in the EU. The second is the most important, the first nobody really cares.
Many happy landings, greetings from The Netherlands!
 
AeroVega
Posts: 342
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Re: Brexit Part IX: Final rush to No Deal

Sat Dec 05, 2020 10:08 am

Dutchy wrote:
LJ wrote:
Dutchy wrote:

Link

Next round: political level.


I sincerly wonder how the call between Ursula von Leyen and Boris Johnson will go.Ursula von Leyen knows she has nothing more on offer than Barnier, thus basically this is probably more a courtesy call than something deal breaking. Then again, oone doesn't know these days.


No but Johnson has the power to change the position of the UK. So if we will see a breakthrough, we will see the UK giving in on all practical levels and the UK will. be thrown a bone which they can sell to the brexitremist as a victory over the EU.


I would not be so sure because Angela wants a deal and Boris knows it. My prediction: Boris will give in on fish and Ursula/Angela will direct Barnier to go back to the negotiating table to hand the UK a better deal than EEA members have. I would be pleasantly surprised if the EU walks away.
 
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Dutchy
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Re: Brexit Part IX: Final rush to No Deal

Sat Dec 05, 2020 10:19 am

AeroVega wrote:
I would not be so sure because Angela wants a deal and Boris knows it.


Yes, Merkel wants a deal, sure, the UK needs a deal.......... and you can count that the EU knows that full well. The current UK government ask the EU something they will never give --> undermining the EU internal market by given access to the UK without ensuring a level playing field. So that is a no go.
Many happy landings, greetings from The Netherlands!
 
olle
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Re: Brexit Part IX: Final rush to No Deal

Sat Dec 05, 2020 2:27 pm

Dutchy wrote:
AeroVega wrote:
I would not be so sure because Angela wants a deal and Boris knows it.


Yes, Merkel wants a deal, sure, the UK needs a deal.......... and you can count that the EU knows that full well. The current UK government ask the EU something they will never give --> undermining the EU internal market by given access to the UK without ensuring a level playing field. So that is a no go.


Does France, Holland and Denmark want a for them a bad deal or can they wait 6 month?
 
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Dutchy
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Re: Brexit Part IX: Final rush to No Deal

Sat Dec 05, 2020 2:29 pm

they can wait......... more important things on the agenda. Risks have been mitigated.
Many happy landings, greetings from The Netherlands!
 
sabenapilot
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Re: Brexit Part IX: Final rush to No Deal

Sat Dec 05, 2020 2:43 pm

Dutchy wrote:
they can wait......... more important things on the agenda. Risks have been mitigated.


Indeed,
with a no deal outcome there's no reason for them to defend any unpopular compromise on fish in their coastal fishing communities: full blame on the UK for whatever happens next, with the full knowledge that the economic damage for the UK's economy is going to be so deep that time is firmly on the EU's side here.
The UK will want to reopen trade negotiations within a few months anyway: the UK can't go global without a deal with it's nextdoor neighbour which is the biggest trading block in the world and is holding the key to a whole range of other all important FTAs with others, like the USofA.

The EU has already prepared for the eventuality of another round of negotiations as from 2021 too: in such outcome it would propose a phased negotiation period of between 3 to 5 years (similar to that reserved for other FTAs) with not just 1 head negotiator like it exceptionally has done now now with M. Barnier, but through the normal EC channels, thus maximizing the damage to the UK's economy and further weaken the British negotiating position as much as possible until it is ready to give and give and give. In a few years time BoJo will long be gone, Brexiteers will have disappointed the British people, reality will have sunk in... and the EU burocracy will still be there unchanged as it's a non-political institution: the EU has time, (British) politicians don't.
 
LJ
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Re: Brexit Part IX: Final rush to No Deal

Sat Dec 05, 2020 3:10 pm

AeroVega wrote:
I would not be so sure because Angela wants a deal and Boris knows it. My prediction: Boris will give in on fish and Ursula/Angela will direct Barnier to go back to the negotiating table to hand the UK a better deal than EEA members have. I would be pleasantly surprised if the EU walks away.


Yet it's not about fish (OK except for maybe France). It's about level playing field. It's something the Brits don't seem to understand but that's what you get if you don't listen to what's going on in countries like Belgium, The Netherlands and France. I agree, the headlines are about fish, but if one reads the full articles it always comes to level playing field and assurance that one follows this. Take Rutte. He seldom mentions fish, but level playing field and governance are the things he always adresses.
 
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seahawk
Posts: 9851
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Re: Brexit Part IX: Final rush to No Deal

Sat Dec 05, 2020 4:48 pm

AeroVega wrote:
Dutchy wrote:
LJ wrote:

I sincerly wonder how the call between Ursula von Leyen and Boris Johnson will go.Ursula von Leyen knows she has nothing more on offer than Barnier, thus basically this is probably more a courtesy call than something deal breaking. Then again, oone doesn't know these days.


No but Johnson has the power to change the position of the UK. So if we will see a breakthrough, we will see the UK giving in on all practical levels and the UK will. be thrown a bone which they can sell to the brexitremist as a victory over the EU.


I would not be so sure because Angela wants a deal and Boris knows it. My prediction: Boris will give in on fish and Ursula/Angela will direct Barnier to go back to the negotiating table to hand the UK a better deal than EEA members have. I would be pleasantly surprised if the EU walks away.


Amazing people still do not understand Merkel after all this years. When she says that she wants a deal, she means that a good deal would be beneficial for both sides and that would be her preferred outcome. It does not mean that she is willing to make a bad deal though.
 
olle
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Re: Brexit Part IX: Final rush to No Deal

Sat Dec 05, 2020 4:48 pm

LJ wrote:
AeroVega wrote:
I would not be so sure because Angela wants a deal and Boris knows it. My prediction: Boris will give in on fish and Ursula/Angela will direct Barnier to go back to the negotiating table to hand the UK a better deal than EEA members have. I would be pleasantly surprised if the EU walks away.


Yet it's not about fish (OK except for maybe France). It's about level playing field. It's something the Brits don't seem to understand but that's what you get if you don't listen to what's going on in countries like Belgium, The Netherlands and France. I agree, the headlines are about fish, but if one reads the full articles it always comes to level playing field and assurance that one follows this. Take Rutte. He seldom mentions fish, but level playing field and governance are the things he always adresses.



In that moment Norway calls Brussels.

They will want their money back.
 
AeroVega
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Re: Brexit Part IX: Final rush to No Deal

Sat Dec 05, 2020 6:30 pm

seahawk wrote:
Amazing people still do not understand Merkel after all this years. When she says that she wants a deal, she means that a good deal would be beneficial for both sides and that would be her preferred outcome. It does not mean that she is willing to make a bad deal though.


Of course Merkel wants a good deal. A good deal for Germany. That's her job.

But a good deal for Germany is not necessarily a good deal for the other members of the EU.
 
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Tugger
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Re: Brexit Part IX: Final rush to No Deal

Sat Dec 05, 2020 8:16 pm

Does anyone here actually have what the terms at issue actually are? Not guessing but the actual issues and what and why they can't be agreed to? I know fishing is one.

Tugg
I don’t know that I am unafraid to be myself, but it is hard to be somebody else. - W. Shatner
There are many kinds of sentences that we think state facts about the world but that are really just expressions of our attitudes. - F. Ramsey
 
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flyingturtle
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Re: Brexit Part IX: Final rush to No Deal

Sat Dec 05, 2020 8:35 pm

Tugger wrote:
Does anyone here actually have what the terms at issue actually are? Not guessing but the actual issues and what and why they can't be agreed to? I know fishing is one.

Tugg


I just checked, and the remaining problems are "level playing field, governance and fisheries."

As I understand it, the level playing field means that UK is only allowed to export into the EU freely if they follow EU rules, e.g. on environmental and worker protection. The EU is not going to put EU companies at a disadvantage.

Governance is how the UK-EU treaty is going to be enforced and disputes resolved. By the EU court? By a separate, new court?

And fisheries... well, they remain fishy.
Reading accident reports is what calms me down

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