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Dutchy
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Unrest in Belarus

Fri Jul 31, 2020 7:42 pm

Police in Belarus have detained demonstrators and journalists at a gathering of hundreds of people protesting President Alexander Lukashenko's re-election campaign.

Mr Lukashenko, who has ruled the country since 1994, is seeking a sixth term in office in August.

Opposition candidates gathered supporters' signatures in the capital Minsk before riot police moved in.

A Radio Free Europe correspondent was detained while reporting live on-air.


link

So what will happen to the once called last dictator in Europe? Will President Alexander Lukashenko term-end. Or will the Lukashenko regime crush the protests and he will move on?
Many happy landings, greetings from The Netherlands!
 
bennett123
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Re: Unrest in Belarus

Fri Jul 31, 2020 7:49 pm

 
ArchGuy1
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Re: Unrest in Belarus

Fri Jul 31, 2020 7:57 pm

Could become Ukraine again with part of the country being occupied by Russia and Russian separatist movements in the eastern part of the country.
 
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Dutchy
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Re: Unrest in Belarus

Fri Jul 31, 2020 8:00 pm

ArchGuy1 wrote:
Could become Ukraine again with part of the country being occupied by Russia and Russian separatist movements in the eastern part of the country.


Hopefully not for Belarussians. Interesting that is the argument of the Lukashenko regime. Strangely enough Lukashenko regime and the Putin regime aren't the best of friends, although Belarus is also quite dependent on Russia.
Many happy landings, greetings from The Netherlands!
 
TSS
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Re: Unrest in Belarus

Fri Jul 31, 2020 9:06 pm

For people like me who until recently knew little or nothing about Belarus, here's a basic primer to bring you up to speed-

Geography Now! Belarus https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nASqSOtXkhk


Extra added bonus- My recent interest in Belarus was sparked by the band in this video who are from there-

Metallica - One (medieval cover by Stary Olsa) Легенды.Live https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YTCiuTUaEvs
Able to kill active threads stone dead with a single post!
 
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c933103
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Re: Unrest in Belarus

Fri Jul 31, 2020 10:52 pm

I just read that Belarus arrested some.Russian, claim they're about to conduct terrorist attack in the country before election, but Russia denied and claim those people were only travelling to Turkey
It's pointless to attempt winning internet debate.
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Tugger
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Re: Unrest in Belarus

Sat Aug 01, 2020 1:25 am

c933103 wrote:
I just read that Belarus arrested some.Russian, claim they're about to conduct terrorist attack in the country before election, but Russia denied and claim those people were only travelling to Turkey

Well... I have to say that I doubt Russia would say anything else really.

I mean "Damn, yeah, you're right they were going to blow sh!t up, our bad...." is not something I'd expect from them.
:spin:
Tugg
I don’t know that I am unafraid to be myself, but it is hard to be somebody else. - W. Shatner
There are many kinds of sentences that we think state facts about the world but that are really just expressions of our attitudes. - F. Ramsey
 
GDB
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Re: Unrest in Belarus

Sat Aug 01, 2020 7:54 am

I think this bordering state is not a concern of Putin, since it's a corrupt dictatorship with rigged elections, what's not to like?
If on the other hand, the ex State Farm manager from Soviet times goes does lose his very tight grip on power and a more Western facing, at least in terms of voting, rights in general as much as economic government did emerge, well he wouldn't like that.
 
Redd
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Re: Unrest in Belarus

Sat Aug 01, 2020 9:18 am

ArchGuy1 wrote:
Could become Ukraine again with part of the country being occupied by Russia and Russian separatist movements in the eastern part of the country.


I'd say we WILL have a repeat of Ukraine again, if they choose to distance themselves, Poland is already limiting immigration from Ukraine, not good for people from Belarus if this means a similar wave of Belarusians needing to run to Poland?... News out of Belarus is usually quiet, interesting to see something like this happening.
 
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Dutchy
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Re: Unrest in Belarus

Tue Aug 04, 2020 11:55 am

The presidential elections in Belarus started on Tuesday. President Alexander Lukashenko, "the last dictator of Europe", faces his greatest electoral challenge in years. He accuses the opposition of colluding with Russia.

Last week, a group of 33 Russian mercenaries were arrested in the Belarusian capital Minsk. The Belarusian government has suspected the men of a plot to destabilize the country with "terrorist acts" in the run-up to the elections.

Russia states that the men are not mercenaries, but employees of a private security company. Minsk would only have been a stopover on their journey to "one of the states in the Latin American region," said a Russian diplomat quoted by the Russian state news agency RIA.

The Belarusian authorities say that the mercenaries made "contradictory statements" about their plans. Venezuela, Turkey, Cuba and Syria are also reported as destinations.

International analysts value Moscow's explanation more than Minsk's.

The relationship between Belarus and Russia has traditionally been very close, but in recent years the relationship has become cooler. President Lukashenko tries to make his country less dependent on Russia, to the dissatisfaction of Moscow, which Belarus wants to join the Russian federal state.


Source in Dutch

Quite a bizarre incident and we will probably never know the truth why these 33 mercenaries were in Minsk.
Many happy landings, greetings from The Netherlands!
 
olle
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Re: Unrest in Belarus

Tue Aug 04, 2020 12:59 pm

For the UK and USA audience in this it can be of interest that these areas was one of the biggest battles during world war II. The fift deadlies with 450 000 dead (D-Day 4000). I think it is of importance to understand how important the WW II still is for the current politics in eastern Europe. Belarus considered it to be liberated by the russians while Baltic states and Poland considering them to be occupied.
 
olle
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Re: Unrest in Belarus

Tue Aug 04, 2020 1:06 pm

Right now there is therefore a struggle in eastern Europe with Poland and Baltic states that considered them as occupied 1939 to 1989 / 1991 leaning against EU and Belarus and Ucraine historical connected with russia. The problem for Russia is that Baltic states and special Poland has been a great economical success and today many people from Belarus and special Ucraine go and work both in Poland but also in Sweden and Germany. 10 years ago my carpenters were from Poland today they are from Ucraine.
 
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Loew
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Re: Unrest in Belarus

Tue Aug 04, 2020 1:14 pm

Dutchy wrote:
The presidential elections in Belarus started on Tuesday. President Alexander Lukashenko, "the last dictator of Europe", faces his greatest electoral challenge in years. He accuses the opposition of colluding with Russia.

Last week, a group of 33 Russian mercenaries were arrested in the Belarusian capital Minsk. The Belarusian government has suspected the men of a plot to destabilize the country with "terrorist acts" in the run-up to the elections.

Russia states that the men are not mercenaries, but employees of a private security company. Minsk would only have been a stopover on their journey to "one of the states in the Latin American region," said a Russian diplomat quoted by the Russian state news agency RIA.

The Belarusian authorities say that the mercenaries made "contradictory statements" about their plans. Venezuela, Turkey, Cuba and Syria are also reported as destinations.

International analysts value Moscow's explanation more than Minsk's.

The relationship between Belarus and Russia has traditionally been very close, but in recent years the relationship has become cooler. President Lukashenko tries to make his country less dependent on Russia, to the dissatisfaction of Moscow, which Belarus wants to join the Russian federal state.


Source in Dutch

Quite a bizarre incident and we will probably never know the truth why these 33 mercenaries were in Minsk.


Problem is, after all these years, Lukashenko most probably would love to leave his post, but can´t. Should there ever be a preferably tropical country, that would agree to give asylum and protection to him and his family, he would be the first one to jump on a plane. But hes stuck where his is, together with the entire country. And let´s be honest here, keeping the status quo pleases both the EU and Russia. Belarus joining Russian federation would be a massive blow to EU security, with equally massive geopolitics implications. It is the same the other way tho, Belarus joining NATO and/or EU. Keeping Lukashenko in the office prevents both scenarios, now that Lukashenko has realized it is time to cool relations with Russia. Russian government still has the soviet, almost colonialistic, mindset and considers this country to be in its zone of interests. It was afterall Putin, who said that the dissolution if the USSR was the greatest tragedy of
20th century. Occasional Russian talk about how the Baltics countries separation from the USSR "was illegal" is just another symptom of this mindset. This is a very sensitive region and for now, it is best to keep things as they are. Therefore, in the end, Lukashenko will win again there will be some unrest, we will once again express our deep concern about the state of democracy in Belarus, Russia will congratulate belarus people on their wise choice, and that will be it.
 
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Dutchy
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Re: Unrest in Belarus

Tue Aug 04, 2020 2:49 pm

Loew wrote:
Problem is, after all these years, Lukashenko most probably would love to leave his post, but can´t.


Sure, that is the problem for all autocratic regimes who plundered the country. They made the population as their enemy, so they. can never leave without the fear of getting prosecuted for their misdeeds while in office. Lukashenko. will claim victory, regardless of what happens during the "elections" and will continue to "rule" the country as he did before, or will, most probably, up his regime's repression because of these unrests.
Many happy landings, greetings from The Netherlands!
 
olle
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Re: Unrest in Belarus

Wed Aug 05, 2020 8:03 am

With economy growing in poland and baltics, we ukraine ex poland terrotories going that way as well I assume that the people of belarus start to consider that open up to the west would be a smart move.

Just the idea to be able to go and work periods of the year in scandinavia and germany bring back a lot of money to the people in the neighbour countries.
 
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Loew
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Re: Unrest in Belarus

Sun Aug 09, 2020 6:56 pm

As expected, Lukashenko has secured yet another term. "Exit poll" suggests 79,7% for Lukashenko and only 6,8% for main opposition candidate Svetlana Tikhanovskaya. A candidate must receive more than 50 per cent of the vote to win outright in the first round. Arrests are already well under way, including Tikhanovskaya´s chief of campaign and 8 other persons among her campaign staff. Also as expected, checkpoints were placed around Minsk's main road intersections and government buildings are being fenced off as protests might take place later during the day. Apparently there is heavy military presence in Minsk and the situation is explosive.

Sources:
https://www.euronews.com/2020/08/09/bel ... ote-begins
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/eu ... story.html
https://www.dw.com/en/belarus-police-ar ... a-54498508
 
T4thH
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Re: Unrest in Belarus

Sun Aug 09, 2020 7:52 pm

Good news from Minsk. the turnout by the voters was in some electoral districts in Minsk by more then 100%.
https://www.zeit.de/politik/ausland/2020-08/belarus-alexander-lukaschenko-praesidentschaftswahl-prognosen Source is in German, use a Translator.

This is like in Erdogania....They all have still to learn from the GDR, never have more than 100% turnout rate and of course always only 99.97 % if the turnout was not 100% (but this was rare)...
And of course, never get 100%, if it was not really 100% in an electoral district. 99.97 % is OK per electoral district, because this only proves, you were the only one, who have elected against the SED and everyone else, including your wife, your husband, your best friend, has lied, when he/she tells you, that they have also not.
It only proves, your wife/husband/best friend is a unofficial member of the STASI! :white:
 
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Dutchy
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Re: Unrest in Belarus

Sun Aug 09, 2020 8:58 pm

Loew wrote:
As expected, Lukashenko has secured yet another term. "Exit poll" suggests 79,7% for Lukashenko and only 6,8% for main opposition candidate Svetlana Tikhanovskaya. A candidate must receive more than 50 per cent of the vote to win outright in the first round. Arrests are already well under way, including Tikhanovskaya´s chief of campaign and 8 other persons among her campaign staff. Also as expected, checkpoints were placed around Minsk's main road intersections and government buildings are being fenced off as protests might take place later during the day. Apparently there is heavy military presence in Minsk and the situation is explosive.

Sources:
https://www.euronews.com/2020/08/09/bel ... ote-begins
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/eu ... story.html
https://www.dw.com/en/belarus-police-ar ... a-54498508


Is anyone surprised? The question is, what will the opposition do now? Continue to protest?
Many happy landings, greetings from The Netherlands!
 
T4thH
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Re: Unrest in Belarus

Sun Aug 09, 2020 9:08 pm

Dutchy wrote:
Loew wrote:
As expected, Lukashenko has secured yet another term. "Exit poll" suggests 79,7% for Lukashenko and only 6,8% for main opposition candidate Svetlana Tikhanovskaya. A candidate must receive more than 50 per cent of the vote to win outright in the first round. Arrests are already well under way, including Tikhanovskaya´s chief of campaign and 8 other persons among her campaign staff. Also as expected, checkpoints were placed around Minsk's main road intersections and government buildings are being fenced off as protests might take place later during the day. Apparently there is heavy military presence in Minsk and the situation is explosive.

Sources:
https://www.euronews.com/2020/08/09/bel ... ote-begins
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/eu ... story.html
https://www.dw.com/en/belarus-police-ar ... a-54498508


Is anyone surprised? The question is, what will the opposition do now? Continue to protest?

How to organize the protests?
All social medias are down in Belarus now, as the whole internet, phone systems to foreign countries e.g.

Is it already so worse, that the people are completely XXXX and just go on the street? So just without any organization? I do not think so, it is still to early but perhaps during the next election.

But who knows?
 
olle
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Re: Unrest in Belarus

Mon Aug 10, 2020 10:25 am

This was anyway a big protest and a big step forward...

The tensions in Belarus will only getting worse the more the neighboring Baltic states improve their situation, perhaps not this covid year but slowly over time.

I think one aspect that Belarus and Russia did not count on is that it seems that Baltic states handles after pressure from EU their russian speaking minorities better each year meaning that from being seen as some 5 colon traitors they are now more and more western oriented and want to remain inside EU.

EU gives the Russian minority both economical advantage and protection.

I assume that the Russian minority in baltic state rather undermine Belarus today with their stories then the baltic states.

EU is the factor that Russia and Belarus hates.
 
T4thH
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Re: Unrest in Belarus

Mon Aug 10, 2020 11:20 am

According some German news, it seems, that Svetlana Tikhanovskaya has likely won the election. In Minsk, minimum 20 of the election districts have been won by her, some with up to 80%, other still with 50% and Lukaschenko got 30 % e.g.
After finishing counting, in these districts, the commission has had read aloud the result in front of the buildings.or have taped the results at the doors.
https://twitter.com/IntelCrab/status/1292570654219345928?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1292570654219345928%7Ctwgr%5E&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.bild.de%2Fpolitik%2Finland%2Fpolitik-inland%2Fbelarus-lukaschenkos-luege-das-wahre-wahlergebnis-von-weissrussland-72306480.bild.html
In the listings/box, Lukaschenko is the third name and Tikhanovskaya is the fourth.

It is the BILD....so not the best source. In German, use translator.
https://www.bild.de/politik/inland/politik-inland/belarus-lukaschenkos-luege-das-wahre-wahlergebnis-von-weissrussland-72306480.bild.html
 
olle
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Re: Unrest in Belarus

Mon Aug 10, 2020 11:32 am

T4thH wrote:
According some German news, it seems, that Svetlana Tikhanovskaya has likely won the election. In Minsk, minimum 20 of the election districts have been won by her, some with up to 80%, other still with 50% and Lukaschenko got 30 % e.g.
After finishing counting, in these districts, the commission has had read aloud the result in front of the buildings.or have taped the results at the doors.
https://twitter.com/IntelCrab/status/1292570654219345928?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1292570654219345928%7Ctwgr%5E&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.bild.de%2Fpolitik%2Finland%2Fpolitik-inland%2Fbelarus-lukaschenkos-luege-das-wahre-wahlergebnis-von-weissrussland-72306480.bild.html
In the listings/box, Lukaschenko is the third name and Tikhanovskaya is the fourth.

It is the BILD....so not the best source. In German, use translator.
https://www.bild.de/politik/inland/politik-inland/belarus-lukaschenkos-luege-das-wahre-wahlergebnis-von-weissrussland-72306480.bild.html



Details!
 
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Loew
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Re: Unrest in Belarus

Mon Aug 10, 2020 1:22 pm

Dutchy wrote:
Loew wrote:
As expected, Lukashenko has secured yet another term. "Exit poll" suggests 79,7% for Lukashenko and only 6,8% for main opposition candidate Svetlana Tikhanovskaya. A candidate must receive more than 50 per cent of the vote to win outright in the first round. Arrests are already well under way, including Tikhanovskaya´s chief of campaign and 8 other persons among her campaign staff. Also as expected, checkpoints were placed around Minsk's main road intersections and government buildings are being fenced off as protests might take place later during the day. Apparently there is heavy military presence in Minsk and the situation is explosive.

Sources:
https://www.euronews.com/2020/08/09/bel ... ote-begins
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/eu ... story.html
https://www.dw.com/en/belarus-police-ar ... a-54498508


Is anyone surprised? The question is, what will the opposition do now? Continue to protest?


Right now we have four basic scenarios:

1. Lukashenko will keep his power by means of force, and protests will gradually die down. Lives will be lost, maybe many.
2. Protests will grow in force, turn violent, Lukashenko flees the country, / gets killed in the country. Many lives will be lost, Belarus left in turmoil, possible civil war, possible military intervention from Russia further deteriorating safety and security in Europe and in the EU.
3. Someone (preferably some tropical island country) will offer Lukashenko and his family asylum, Lukashenko flees the country / gets safe departure promise, opposition gets in power fairly quickly, questionable retribution practise, but generally this scenario probably involves the least deaths.
4. EU and Russia apply heavy pressure on Lukashenko together, and then scenario 2 or 3.
 
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Dutchy
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Re: Unrest in Belarus

Mon Aug 10, 2020 2:19 pm

most probably, scenario 1 or 2. And of these two, unfortunately, number 1. The EU and Russia both have no any interest in turmoil in this country. The Putin regime sees Belarus as part of the greater Russian country, as they do with all former CCC-countries. A shame for ordinary Belarussians though, I would like to see them to get more personal freedom, but I do not see it happening, unfortunately.
Many happy landings, greetings from The Netherlands!
 
T4thH
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Re: Unrest in Belarus

Mon Aug 10, 2020 2:44 pm

olle wrote:
T4thH wrote:
According some German news, it seems, that Svetlana Tikhanovskaya has likely won the election. In Minsk, minimum 20 of the election districts have been won by her, some with up to 80%, other still with 50% and Lukaschenko got 30 % e.g.
After finishing counting, in these districts, the commission has had read aloud the result in front of the buildings.or have taped the results at the doors.
https://twitter.com/IntelCrab/status/1292570654219345928?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1292570654219345928%7Ctwgr%5E&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.bild.de%2Fpolitik%2Finland%2Fpolitik-inland%2Fbelarus-lukaschenkos-luege-das-wahre-wahlergebnis-von-weissrussland-72306480.bild.html
In the listings/box, Lukaschenko is the third name and Tikhanovskaya is the fourth.

It is the BILD....so not the best source. In German, use translator.
https://www.bild.de/politik/inland/politik-inland/belarus-lukaschenkos-luege-das-wahre-wahlergebnis-von-weissrussland-72306480.bild.html



Details!


Do you see the two links? Why do you think, I have posted them? These are the sources, all details are in these two links, including the results for some of the mentioned election districts. There is one twitter source with images and the News link in German. As long, you are translating from any language into English, the implemented Google translator in Chrome as example, is excellent.

If you expect a 100% 1 to 1 translation for you; NO! For this, there are the in Browser implemented translator programs.
Last edited by T4thH on Mon Aug 10, 2020 2:54 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
T4thH
Posts: 1050
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Re: Unrest in Belarus

Mon Aug 10, 2020 2:53 pm

Loew wrote:
Dutchy wrote:
Loew wrote:
As expected, Lukashenko has secured yet another term. "Exit poll" suggests 79,7% for Lukashenko and only 6,8% for main opposition candidate Svetlana Tikhanovskaya. A candidate must receive more than 50 per cent of the vote to win outright in the first round. Arrests are already well under way, including Tikhanovskaya´s chief of campaign and 8 other persons among her campaign staff. Also as expected, checkpoints were placed around Minsk's main road intersections and government buildings are being fenced off as protests might take place later during the day. Apparently there is heavy military presence in Minsk and the situation is explosive.

Sources:
https://www.euronews.com/2020/08/09/bel ... ote-begins
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/eu ... story.html
https://www.dw.com/en/belarus-police-ar ... a-54498508


Is anyone surprised? The question is, what will the opposition do now? Continue to protest?


Right now we have four basic scenarios:

1. Lukashenko will keep his power by means of force, and protests will gradually die down. Lives will be lost, maybe many.
2. Protests will grow in force, turn violent, Lukashenko flees the country, / gets killed in the country. Many lives will be lost, Belarus left in turmoil, possible civil war, possible military intervention from Russia further deteriorating safety and security in Europe and in the EU.
3. Someone (preferably some tropical island country) will offer Lukashenko and his family asylum, Lukashenko flees the country / gets safe departure promise, opposition gets in power fairly quickly, questionable retribution practise, but generally this scenario probably involves the least deaths.
4. EU and Russia apply heavy pressure on Lukashenko together, and then scenario 2 or 3.


There can be also a 5th scenario, as we have seen in 1989 GDR e.g. The army and security forces are not willed to shoot on their own people, other members of the government are not willed to follow Lukaschenko, as they recognize, the game is over. So a peaceful take over. ....and a 6th. And than, many green men appear, all on holiday and suddenly half of Belarus is part of Russia/Putinistan.
 
T4thH
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Re: Unrest in Belarus

Mon Aug 10, 2020 8:58 pm

OK, the title says all:
Belarus election: Germany threatens sanctions over Lukashenko's controversial win

https://www.dw.com/en/belarus-election-germany-threatens-sanctions-over-lukashenkos-controversial-win/a-54509688
The same from Poland /see below source) and other European countries:
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/aug/10/calls-for-eu-to-impose-sanctions-on-belarus-following-disputed-elections
Seems also the EU will be involved.
The EU had lifted sanctions in 2016. because there was an improvement...back to 2015?
 
Sokes
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Re: Unrest in Belarus

Sat Aug 15, 2020 7:57 am

Tugger wrote:
c933103 wrote:
I just read that Belarus arrested some.Russian, claim they're about to conduct terrorist attack in the country before election, but Russia denied and claim those people were only travelling to Turkey

Well... I have to say that I doubt Russia would say anything else really.

I mean "Damn, yeah, you're right they were going to blow sh!t up, our bad...." is not something I'd expect from them.
:spin:
Tugg

What evidence Belarus has?
Why can't the world be a little bit more autistic?
 
LCDFlight
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Re: Unrest in Belarus

Sat Aug 15, 2020 10:07 am

Wouldn't the EU have an obligation to have an accurate, public position on this?

It seems like the Russia client countries are permanently zombies / stunted. EU cannot intervene with credibility. And Russia cannot allow anything much to happen in them.

Found this article: "Small Lithuania plays outsized role for EU in Belarus crisis"

https://abcnews.go.com/International/wi ... s-72369299
 
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Dutchy
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Re: Unrest in Belarus

Sat Aug 15, 2020 11:50 am

tu204 wrote:
Dutchy wrote:
olle wrote:

Sometimes I enter RT in order to get a view of how putin and the rissian elite see things.

By the way RT still do not mention covid in russia...


The same with Covind, he doesn't know how to react.


What?

Russia reacted pretty well to the whole COVID issue, starting with locking borders, preparing, helping other countries and finally coming up with the first (albeit not fully tested) vaccine.

What Russophobe planet are you coming from?


The one were facts matter. 915,808 cases confirmed, if these numbers are accurate and the cases of daily caes don't subsides. as other countries have shown. helping. others was fake anyhow, pure propaganda stunt, didn't have any impact. because the ecquipment brought was bad, but sure nice publicity for them.
Yeah becomming first matters for the Putin regime, and becoming first by cheating - not doing the required tests and doing these tests on Russian citizens at large, thus using them as a ginnipick - isn't an issue for them. I will take a Russian vaccin if it is properly tested. And if it is fully tested and passed all the requirements, sure kuddos to Russia, using its citizens for medical experiments, neh not so much.

So what exactly did Russia pretty well? Propaganda yeah, in. real terms, no evidence that. they did pretty well.
Many happy landings, greetings from The Netherlands!
 
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c933103
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Re: Unrest in Belarus

Sun Aug 16, 2020 8:30 am

LCDFlight wrote:
Wouldn't the EU have an obligation to have an accurate, public position on this?

It seems like the Russia client countries are permanently zombies / stunted. EU cannot intervene with credibility. And Russia cannot allow anything much to happen in them.

Found this article: "Small Lithuania plays outsized role for EU in Belarus crisis"

https://abcnews.go.com/International/wi ... s-72369299

EU have responded with some sanction, but without its own centralized political/military/diplomatic organization which is necessary to conduct further intervention, cards they have on their hands are rather limited
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olle
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Re: Unrest in Belarus

Sun Aug 16, 2020 9:03 am

I think that this might be the crisis that make EU develop in this area.

Nato with MR Trump in White house will be impossible to hide behind...

Baltic states and the normal countries that do not want more integration will not be able to hide.

The interesting will be countries like Hungary and the populist political forces in France Le Pen and similar in Italy normally supporters of Putin and that style of government.
 
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Thunderboltdrgn
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Re: Unrest in Belarus

Sun Aug 16, 2020 2:05 pm

Imo EU won't do anything more than a few sanctions and then silently look the other way when Russia annex Belarus like Russia did with Crimea.
Like a thunderbolt of lightning the Dragon roars across the sky. Il Drago Ruggente
 
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Dutchy
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Re: Unrest in Belarus

Sun Aug 16, 2020 2:30 pm

Russia is ready to provide military support to the regime of Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko, if necessary. Lukashenko is threatened by mass protests after a manipulated election.

During a phone call on Sunday, Putin assured the Belarusian leader that Moscow is ready to provide assistance under the terms of a military pact between the two countries.

The Kremlin wrote in the statement on the conversation between the two leaders that Belarus is the subject of "external pressure". That was not explained further.


&

Lukashenko blames foreign interference for the mass protests against his rule.


Link in Dutch

Sounds like Putin is indeed prepared to annex Belarus as well. Right from the dictators' playbook: blame "external pressure" for protests. Where have we heard such an excuses before?
Many happy landings, greetings from The Netherlands!
 
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Loew
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Re: Unrest in Belarus

Sun Aug 16, 2020 4:42 pm

Dutchy wrote:
Russia is ready to provide military support to the regime of Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko, if necessary. Lukashenko is threatened by mass protests after a manipulated election.

During a phone call on Sunday, Putin assured the Belarusian leader that Moscow is ready to provide assistance under the terms of a military pact between the two countries.

The Kremlin wrote in the statement on the conversation between the two leaders that Belarus is the subject of "external pressure". That was not explained further.


&

Lukashenko blames foreign interference for the mass protests against his rule.


Link in Dutch

Sounds like Putin is indeed prepared to annex Belarus as well. Right from the dictators' playbook: blame "external pressure" for protests. Where have we heard such an excuses before?


While military intervention is indeed possible, there are still several obstackles. First, contrary to eastern Ukraine, there is no such large russian population in Belarus and little russian separatist, or pro russian sentiment. Secondly, as it is very clear by now, that most of the population doesnt want Lukashenko to stay, keeping him in power by means of foreign force will not put a full stop to population´s dissatisfaction with the regime. In best case scenario, this would create a very fragile police state, while economy would certainly go down the drain, overtime requiring more and more resources from Russia. Which is something Russia doesn´t have right now after all recent adventures, and most probably won´t have in following 10 years. Worst case scenario is a full guerilla style civil war, and that is something no one can effectively win. Afterall, Russians lerned this the hard way in the 80s. Another option would be leaving Lukashenko to his fate, or providing him with an asylum in Russia, while placing a new puppet government in place. But again, doing this by means of force, doesn´t solve any of these problems, there would be some hope, that the protests will gradually die down tho. So, not ideal. Third problem is sanctions. Eventhough many people here, and in Russia as well, are actually laughing sanctions off, the truth is they do sting, as Russia was forced to find shadier friends to trade with. We are all dealing with corona induced uncertainity, and no one needs more problems on their hands. Thirdly, geopolitical implications of supposed annexation of Belarus are massive. NATO would be bordering Russia, which is again not ideal for both sides, and this most probably will lead to another arms race. Poland would be especially vocal about this. Security of entire European continent would be destabilized, right in time for US elections. Again, not ideal for Putin. Also the very personna of Lukashenko is not exactly ideal for Putin. Then again, Belarus and Russia has created the Union state 20 years ago, and Putin has been trying to merge Belarus and Russia since he took the office. Russia is therefore bound to do something, and if anything Putin hates protests, since he experienced them in the former DDR.

I think, the main priority for Russia right now, is to keep the status quo somehow. To do so, Lukashenko has to go, as frankly its only him who is preventing this. With Lukashenko out of the picture, new elections could be organized. These elections could be easily branded as "the first free elections since 1994, provided by Russia th guardian of democracy". With some meddling, Putin would be easily able to keep any strong pro EU / west oriented candidates out of the loop. Belarus population doesnt want to become a russian federal state, so Putin will probably have to give up this ambition for now. Yet, with new government in place, elected by the people, Belarusian society would be left vulnerable, with enough internal problems and squabbles to solve before looking to the west, hence keeping the status quo and providing Russia with time, years, maybe decades. So the question is, how to throw Lukashenko under the bus, while keeping the situation under some control.
 
T4thH
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Re: Unrest in Belarus

Mon Aug 17, 2020 8:42 pm

Seems the opera "Lukashenko" is starting to be over; the fat lady starts to sing (the last song).
https://www.npr.org/2020/08/17/903205824/belarus-factory-workers-walk-out-joining-mass-protests-calling-for-president-to-
Only his security forces are left but will they be willed to strike down the protests, when just everywhere and all groups are on the street, even these who have been former the supporters of Lukashenko?
 
T4thH
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Re: Unrest in Belarus

Tue Aug 18, 2020 8:38 am

According some news, green men on holiday, are on the way to Belarus. Shall be around 600 now? Seems to be national guard units and a convoy of trucks freshly "denationalized".
40 to 60 trucks without marks and license plates. Different sources, videos and pictures available and posted in social medias e.g.
Example:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=1&v=y5Yiruy0NXk&feature=emb_logo


In German, use translator:
https://www.t-online.de/nachrichten/ausland/krisen/id_88413772/russische-soldaten-wohl-in-richtung-belarus-unterwegs-ohne-abzeichen.html
So if something happens, we shall not be surprised, so just to remind. So perhaps this story is just nothing and it has nothing to do with Belarus or we see the preparation for the next invasion by the green men on holiday.
 
LabQuest
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Re: Unrest in Belarus

Tue Aug 18, 2020 11:30 am

How could this be happening on the enlightened continent of Europe? This is 2020 not 1920. An actual violent revolution in a European nation!
 
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Dutchy
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Re: Unrest in Belarus

Tue Aug 18, 2020 12:15 pm

LabQuest wrote:
How could this be happening on the enlightened continent of Europe? This is 2020 not 1920. An actual violent revolution in a European nation!


Do I smell a tad of irony here? Anyhow, Belarus has been a dictatorship for the past 100 odd years and probably before that as well. So a bit overdue perhaps? :)
Many happy landings, greetings from The Netherlands!
 
 
LabQuest
Posts: 199
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Re: Unrest in Belarus

Tue Aug 18, 2020 1:00 pm

Dutchy wrote:
LabQuest wrote:
How could this be happening on the enlightened continent of Europe? This is 2020 not 1920. An actual violent revolution in a European nation!


Do I smell a tad of irony here? Anyhow, Belarus has been a dictatorship for the past 100 odd years and probably before that as well. So a bit overdue perhaps? :)


Just a tad overdue indeed.
 
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einsteinboricua
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Re: Unrest in Belarus

Tue Aug 18, 2020 2:32 pm

Thunderboltdrgn wrote:
Imo EU won't do anything more than a few sanctions and then silently look the other way when Russia annex Belarus like Russia did with Crimea.

Technically speaking, both Russia and Belarus have signed a treaty that unites both countries into a single federal state (the Union State); the problem is that Russia lost interest, and then when it finally decided it wanted to go through, Belarus said "not so fast", especially because while on paper it looks like a federal state, in reality it would be incorporating Belarus as a federal subject of Russia.
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THS214
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Re: Unrest in Belarus

Mon Aug 24, 2020 3:01 pm

Lukashenko is clearly a soldies.

How any with military training carries an AK-47 like that? No magasine?

He just made a fool of himself as a military leader.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TNYPEN716Qo
 
T4thH
Posts: 1050
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Re: Unrest in Belarus

Sun Aug 30, 2020 12:50 pm

The group "Honest People" has now proven, that the election was massively falsified. Falsification was done on two levels, one at the polling places and additional ob governmental level. 550.000 voters have had made photos of their voting paper with their mobile phones and sent them to the group (system: "Golos") and additional they were able to collect copies of 23% of all official sent voting protocols and were so able to prove the second lever falsification by the government,

Link to the official final announcement by the "Honest people" group.
https://drive.google.com/file/d/1WnyAfVKDhZOQxxDd2tdi5xcH3eiOng0V/view
News in German, explaining the data: Use a translator implemented in your browsers.
https://www.n-tv.de/politik/So-faelschte-Belarus-seine-Wahl-article21999878.html
 
tu204
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Re: Unrest in Belarus

Mon Aug 31, 2020 12:15 pm

THS214 wrote:
Lukashenko is clearly a soldies.

How any with military training carries an AK-47 like that? No magasine?

He just made a fool of himself as a military leader.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TNYPEN716Qo


That's an AKM ;)
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