Air Arabia launching flights to TLV is impossible. The ruler of Sharjah is a very conservative man and he won't allow that to happen. It makes more sense for Emirates and Etihad to launch flights to the city.

It is not clear that Israel won't resume annexation later. That would create a bit of angst.

From NYT:


Emirati representatives said that they expected Israel to characterize the halt to annexation as only a “pause,” but that in practical terms, the deal would most likely postpone the prospect of such a move until after the American presidential election. That might bring in an administration in Washington more opposed to the idea and could amount to an indefinite cancellation, the Emiratis argued.

aristoenigma wrote:

"Israeli PM says there is no change in his plans to annex parts of the occupied West Bank despite a deal with the UAE."
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has said he agreed to delay annexation in the occupied West Bank as part of a normalisation deal with the United Arab Emirates (UAE), but the plans remain "on the table".
How is that going to work?

Might not work, but the Sunni Arab nations need powerful allies as Iran strengthens and the US disengages in the Gulf. It wouldn’t be the first time would-be Palestinian allies sold them out.

GalaxyFlyer wrote:

aristoenigma wrote:

"Israeli PM says there is no change in his plans to annex parts of the occupied West Bank despite a deal with the UAE."
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has said he agreed to delay annexation in the occupied West Bank as part of a normalisation deal with the United Arab Emirates (UAE), but the plans remain "on the table".
How is that going to work?

Might not work, but the Sunni Arab nations need powerful allies as Iran strengthens and the US disengages in the Gulf. It wouldn’t be the first time would-be Palestinian allies sold them out.

Call me a cynic, but maybe this is just another attempt to help the occupant of the W.H win reelection. You would think it was Peace in our Lifetime the way it is being glorified by the Chief Liar and crew. Israel wants more money and guess who wants to kiss up to its supporters for money for reelection? A Quid Pro Quo. Where have I heard that term recently? What did Sleepy Joe call him? The man who admits to nothing, but wants to claim everything. Right on Joe!!!

Another thing to consider here is that flights between Europe and AUH/DXB will now be able to overfly Israel. Many EK/EY flights detour around over the Gulf of Aqaba/Eilat. They already avoid flying over Syria, so this shortens some flights for them. The feed from southern Asia to Israel for tourism is going to be substantial. No more back tracking through ADD or HKG. Half of the EK/EY flights to/from TLV will be onward connections to SIN and MNL alone. Again, Oman and Bahrain are next, then Morocco. Morocco has been luring Israeli travelers for years. There is a huge Moroccan Jewish diaspora in Israel.

WarRI1 wrote:

GalaxyFlyer wrote:

aristoenigma wrote:

"Israeli PM says there is no change in his plans to annex parts of the occupied West Bank despite a deal with the UAE."
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has said he agreed to delay annexation in the occupied West Bank as part of a normalisation deal with the United Arab Emirates (UAE), but the plans remain "on the table".
How is that going to work?

Might not work, but the Sunni Arab nations need powerful allies as Iran strengthens and the US disengages in the Gulf. It wouldn’t be the first time would-be Palestinian allies sold them out.

Call me a cynic, but maybe this is just another attempt to help the occupant of the W.H win reelection. You would think it was Peace in our Lifetime the way it is being glorified by the Chief Liar and crew. Israel wants more money and guess who wants to kiss up to its supporters for money for reelection? A Quid Pro Quo. Where have I heard that term recently? What did Sleepy Joe call him? The man who admits to nothing, but wants to claim everything. Right on Joe!!!

And Obama's wars in the Middle East were not just so that he could please the war lobby and arms manufacturers in the US? Personally I'd take a president who hasn't started a war over one who contributed to disintegrating Libya.

Independent what happens long term if sunni shia and Israel wants peace a regional economy is needed.

Peace agreements is only worth the inc they written with if local business and middle class invest in the peace.

I know USA and UK people will not agree to this but Nato kept Stalin out after WW II but it is the EU keeping the peace in Europe long term and is the difference between a versalles style peace and post WW II peace.

Israels has a baltic state situation where russian population was seen as a 5 column situation. EU and a change of politics that made russian speaking population see the opportunities in EU rather then with their baltic neighbor changed things and now they are rather a fift column for belarus and russia.

I could see that the palestinians could become the israel influanced fift column to change the neighbor countries if Israel would like to invest in a long term peace with palestinians and not a versalles peace.

A change that would make an advantage to everybody. Including Israel.

About TK, for some reason Erdogan seems to want to start a war with the EU, so that might damage his national airline...

Aesma wrote:

About TK, for some reason Erdogan seems to want to start a war with the EU, so that might damage his national airline...

How will emirates be effected if Turkey airspace is not available?

olle wrote:

Aesma wrote:

About TK, for some reason Erdogan seems to want to start a war with the EU, so that might damage his national airline...

How will emirates be effected if Turkey airspace is not available?

I don't really see that happening though. Why would Turkey close its airspace for Emirates? Erdogan is bullying countries left and right but soon enough Turkey might feel the consequences of all that. Then again, they probably are already given the collapse of the Turkish Lira.

AshFlops wrote:

Another thing to consider here is that flights between Europe and AUH/DXB will now be able to overfly Israel. Many EK/EY flights detour around over the Gulf of Aqaba/Eilat. They already avoid flying over Syria, so this shortens some flights for them. The feed from southern Asia to Israel for tourism is going to be substantial. No more back tracking through ADD or HKG. Half of the EK/EY flights to/from TLV will be onward connections to SIN and MNL alone. Again, Oman and Bahrain are next, then Morocco. Morocco has been luring Israeli travelers for years. There is a huge Moroccan Jewish diaspora in Israel.

Flying between the UAE and Europe over Israel only provides a significant benefit distance-wise from the very western part of Europe (think BCN or MAD) and even then only as long as they can’t fly over Syria (which provides the shortest possible route to the UAE).

From this perspective the biggest question will be, assuming the Gulf carriers will be allowed to traverse Saudi skies to and from Israel, will overflight rights be extended to Israeli carriers also, and if so, to the UAE-only or to anywhere? If the Saudis allow Israeli air carriers overflight rights to any destination that would open many opportunities for Israeli carriers as it would shorten the flight times to destinations such as BOM and BKK by a couple of hours.

flybaby wrote:

AshFlops wrote:

Another thing to consider here is that flights between Europe and AUH/DXB will now be able to overfly Israel. Many EK/EY flights detour around over the Gulf of Aqaba/Eilat. They already avoid flying over Syria, so this shortens some flights for them. The feed from southern Asia to Israel for tourism is going to be substantial. No more back tracking through ADD or HKG. Half of the EK/EY flights to/from TLV will be onward connections to SIN and MNL alone. Again, Oman and Bahrain are next, then Morocco. Morocco has been luring Israeli travelers for years. There is a huge Moroccan Jewish diaspora in Israel.

Flying between the UAE and Europe over Israel only provides a significant benefit distance-wise from the very western part of Europe (think BCN or MAD) and even then only as long as they can’t fly over Syria (which provides the shortest possible route to the UAE).

From this perspective the biggest question will be, assuming the Gulf carriers will be allowed to traverse Saudi skies to and from Israel, will overflight rights be extended to Israeli carriers also, and if so, to the UAE-only or to anywhere? If the Saudis allow Israeli air carriers overflight rights to any destination that would open many opportunities for Israeli carriers as it would shorten the flight times to destinations such as BOM and BKK by a couple of hours.

I think destinations such as LCA will profit the most. Could they overfly Israel if they are flying to Lebanon for example?

Blerg wrote:

flybaby wrote:

AshFlops wrote:

Another thing to consider here is that flights between Europe and AUH/DXB will now be able to overfly Israel. Many EK/EY flights detour around over the Gulf of Aqaba/Eilat. They already avoid flying over Syria, so this shortens some flights for them. The feed from southern Asia to Israel for tourism is going to be substantial. No more back tracking through ADD or HKG. Half of the EK/EY flights to/from TLV will be onward connections to SIN and MNL alone. Again, Oman and Bahrain are next, then Morocco. Morocco has been luring Israeli travelers for years. There is a huge Moroccan Jewish diaspora in Israel.

Flying between the UAE and Europe over Israel only provides a significant benefit distance-wise from the very western part of Europe (think BCN or MAD) and even then only as long as they can’t fly over Syria (which provides the shortest possible route to the UAE).

From this perspective the biggest question will be, assuming the Gulf carriers will be allowed to traverse Saudi skies to and from Israel, will overflight rights be extended to Israeli carriers also, and if so, to the UAE-only or to anywhere? If the Saudis allow Israeli air carriers overflight rights to any destination that would open many opportunities for Israeli carriers as it would shorten the flight times to destinations such as BOM and BKK by a couple of hours.

I think destinations such as LCA will profit the most. Could they overfly Israel if they are flying to Lebanon for example?

Yes, you are correct, Cyprus could profit the most although again, until such time as Syrian airspace becomes available again.

Theoretically, Lebanon could benefit also but there is no mechanism to handoff traffic directly between Israel to/from Lebanon. Such flights would probably have to head towards Cyprus (Greek side) and then handed over by Cypriot controllers to Israeli airspace. Israel would also need to agree to allow flights originating/terminating in Lebanon to fly through its airspace.

As per the kid Alex Macheras, Israir is in the process of applying for permits to fly to the UAE

Link: https://twitter.com/AlexInAir/status/12 ... 9540370438.

While I love the idea of another step for ME Peace I still have zero trust for Trump. I tend to believe that Trump got his good buddy Netanyahu agreed to a "deal" that can be dumped after the election. Maybe if Trump hadn't lied so much every day I could put some trust in the deal.

We can see how long it lasts if Biden wins the election.

Ken777 wrote:

While I love the idea of another step for ME Peace I still have zero trust for Trump. I tend to believe that Trump got his good buddy Netanyahu agreed to a "deal" that can be dumped after the election. Maybe if Trump hadn't lied so much every day I could put some trust in the deal.

We can see how long it lasts if Biden wins the election.

This is sadly my conclusion as well. Trump want to please his evangelic voter base, Netanyahu already says he has not promised anything to his hilltop movement traded for what I considered a fantastic agreement. But an agreement is just a paper. It need to translate in a small and middle size business exchange. And for this I still see that solution of the Palestinian situation even by surrender and Palestinian people being absorbed by Israel. If not this is just another photo opportunity.

olle wrote:

Ken777 wrote:

While I love the idea of another step for ME Peace I still have zero trust for Trump. I tend to believe that Trump got his good buddy Netanyahu agreed to a "deal" that can be dumped after the election. Maybe if Trump hadn't lied so much every day I could put some trust in the deal.

We can see how long it lasts if Biden wins the election.

This is sadly my conclusion as well. Trump want to please his evangelic voter base, Netanyahu already says he has not promised anything to his hilltop movement traded for what I considered a fantastic agreement. But an agreement is just a paper. It need to translate in a small and middle size business exchange. And for this I still see that solution of the Palestinian situation even by surrender and Palestinian people being absorbed by Israel. If not this is just another photo opportunity.

Nah, this agreement is here to stay. The UAE wanted it just as much as the Israelis. They’ve had extensive quiet ties for years, now they’re just making them official. The UAE was looking for a convenient excuse and annexation is just what they needed. As for annexation itself, it’s dead and buried, despite what Netanyahu tells the hilltop boys. The reason is that Netanyahu (and Israel in general) won’t do it without US approval and the Trump administration, after the “deal of the century” was completely rejected by everyone but Israel has realized unilateral annexation is not in its best interest.

Blerg wrote:

flybaby wrote:

AshFlops wrote:

Another thing to consider here is that flights between Europe and AUH/DXB will now be able to overfly Israel. Many EK/EY flights detour around over the Gulf of Aqaba/Eilat. They already avoid flying over Syria, so this shortens some flights for them. The feed from southern Asia to Israel for tourism is going to be substantial. No more back tracking through ADD or HKG. Half of the EK/EY flights to/from TLV will be onward connections to SIN and MNL alone. Again, Oman and Bahrain are next, then Morocco. Morocco has been luring Israeli travelers for years. There is a huge Moroccan Jewish diaspora in Israel.

Flying between the UAE and Europe over Israel only provides a significant benefit distance-wise from the very western part of Europe (think BCN or MAD) and even then only as long as they can’t fly over Syria (which provides the shortest possible route to the UAE).

From this perspective the biggest question will be, assuming the Gulf carriers will be allowed to traverse Saudi skies to and from Israel, will overflight rights be extended to Israeli carriers also, and if so, to the UAE-only or to anywhere? If the Saudis allow Israeli air carriers overflight rights to any destination that would open many opportunities for Israeli carriers as it would shorten the flight times to destinations such as BOM and BKK by a couple of hours.

I think destinations such as LCA will profit the most. Could they overfly Israel if they are flying to Lebanon for example?

No, because Israel and Lebanon have no way to transfer control of flights to one another, there is no agreement there. Especially since Hezbollah control the Beirut airport.

flybaby wrote:

Blerg wrote:

flybaby wrote:

Flying between the UAE and Europe over Israel only provides a significant benefit distance-wise from the very western part of Europe (think BCN or MAD) and even then only as long as they can’t fly over Syria (which provides the shortest possible route to the UAE).

From this perspective the biggest question will be, assuming the Gulf carriers will be allowed to traverse Saudi skies to and from Israel, will overflight rights be extended to Israeli carriers also, and if so, to the UAE-only or to anywhere? If the Saudis allow Israeli air carriers overflight rights to any destination that would open many opportunities for Israeli carriers as it would shorten the flight times to destinations such as BOM and BKK by a couple of hours.

I think destinations such as LCA will profit the most. Could they overfly Israel if they are flying to Lebanon for example?

Yes, you are correct, Cyprus could profit the most although again, until such time as Syrian airspace becomes available again.

Theoretically, Lebanon could benefit also but there is no mechanism to handoff traffic directly between Israel to/from Lebanon. Such flights would probably have to head towards Cyprus (Greek side) and then handed over by Cypriot controllers to Israeli airspace. Israel would also need to agree to allow flights originating/terminating in Lebanon to fly through its airspace.

I don't think Syrian air space plays a role when it comes to flights to/from LCA. Most, if not all EK flights, come from the south, overflying Egypt. Now they could have a more direct routing over Israel, they'll surely save 20-25 minutes if not more.

Blerg wrote:

...
I don't think Syrian air space plays a role when it comes to flights to/from LCA. Most, if not all EK flights, come from the south, overflying Egypt. Now they could have a more direct routing over Israel, they'll surely save 20-25 minutes if not more.

The shortest route between LCA and DXB passes over Lebanon and Syria. That’s the route that was used until the Syrian Civil War started. The whole bypass Israel through Egypt thing didn’t begin until then. If EK regains the ability to overfly Syria then that is better distance-wise from LCA than overflying Israel.

flybaby wrote:

Blerg wrote:

...
I don't think Syrian air space plays a role when it comes to flights to/from LCA. Most, if not all EK flights, come from the south, overflying Egypt. Now they could have a more direct routing over Israel, they'll surely save 20-25 minutes if not more.

The shortest route between LCA and DXB passes over Lebanon and Syria. That’s the route that was used until the Syrian Civil War started. The whole bypass Israel through Egypt thing didn’t begin until then. If EK regains the ability to overfly Syria then that is better distance-wise from LCA than overflying Israel.

I know how they used to fly in the past as I used to be a regular on this route, even as far back when they used to fly DXB-BEY-LCA on the A310. However, I am talking about more recently when they couldn't overfly Syria. By overflying Israel now they could cut flying time a bit.

It’s now official. Saudi Arabia confirmed that all countries’ aircraft will be allowed to operate over its airspace between Israel and the UAE.

The big losers IMHO are Turkish Airlines and Royal Jordanian which do significant eastbound connection business from Tel Aviv. Other losers will be Aeroflot, UIA, and central Asian carriers.

The big beneficiaries of this will be the UAE carriers which now will have another O&D and connecting destination.

El Al is a loser too although its eastbound activity is not substantial. Two destinations would probably be most affected: BKK (O&D) and HKG (connections). This is unless someday Saudi permits it to operate to any destination, not just the UAE. If and when that happens EL AL may actually see significant pick up in eastbound activity.

I suspect Israeli carriers will fly to the UAE (passenger and cargo service) although the UAE carriers will offer greater frequency of flights.

flybaby wrote:

El Al is a loser too although its eastbound activity is not substantial. Two destinations would probably be most affected: BKK (O&D) and HKG (connections). This is unless someday Saudi permits it to operate to any destination, not just the UAE. If and when that happens EL AL may actually see significant pick up in eastbound activity.

I suspect Israeli carriers will fly to the UAE (passenger and cargo service) although the UAE carriers will offer greater frequency of flights.

Seems it's only between both countries. LY will still need to go the long way round to BOM and BKK. And depending on how high demand is, LY may be overwhelmed with EK and EY offering more flights (two airlines from two main airport flying to one main city vs one airline from one city traveling to two main airports), so service between the two will likely be dominated by UAE's carriers rather than LY.

Side note: when flying along the Red Sea, which country is in charge of guiding LY's flights in the narrow area between Saudi Arabia and Sudan, and the Bab-el-Mandeb strait betweein Djibouti and Yemen? Are these the only instances where LY flights are guided by Arab controllers?

einsteinboricua wrote:

flybaby wrote:

El Al is a loser too although its eastbound activity is not substantial. Two destinations would probably be most affected: BKK (O&D) and HKG (connections). This is unless someday Saudi permits it to operate to any destination, not just the UAE. If and when that happens EL AL may actually see significant pick up in eastbound activity.

I suspect Israeli carriers will fly to the UAE (passenger and cargo service) although the UAE carriers will offer greater frequency of flights.

Seems it's only between both countries. LY will still need to go the long way round to BOM and BKK. And depending on how high demand is, LY may be overwhelmed with EK and EY offering more flights (two airlines from two main airport flying to one main city vs one airline from one city traveling to two main airports), so service between the two will likely be dominated by UAE's carriers rather than LY.

Side note: when flying along the Red Sea, which country is in charge of guiding LY's flights in the narrow area between Saudi Arabia and Sudan, and the Bab-el-Mandeb strait betweein Djibouti and Yemen? Are these the only instances where LY flights are guided by Arab controllers?

In case there is an EK/EY-LY codeshare in place I can see them terminate several Asian destinations and purely concentrate on selling flights via AUH and DXB. I am sure EY and EK will make room for them, especially EK since LY has narrowbodies which are convenient.

SCQ83 wrote:

345tas wrote:

I don't think anyone should expect much O&D on this route, given Israel has had a peace agreement with Egypt and Jordan for years, and tourism, at least by Jewish Israelis, is almost zero. Similarly, Israeli tourism to Turkey is extremely susceptible to the vagaries of that political relationship. However, the UAE does have a huge services economy and there is already indirect business travel to/from TLV.

I disagree. Jordan, Egypt and Turkey are poor and unstable countries. Dubai and Abu Dhabi are another story; those are very globalised, international-oriented cities.

Dubai is a major financial center -- one of the most important in the world after NY, London, and Hong Kong. Israel is a dynamic regional economy. Capital in the two regions will connect. There will be plenty of business O&D traffic.