Hot of the press

Israel and the United Arab Emirates have agreed to normalise relations, US President Donald Trump has announced.

A joint statement by Mr Trump, Israeli PM Benjamin Netanyahu and Abu Dhabi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Zayed said they hoped the "historic breakthrough will advance peace in the Middle East".

Link

Credit where credit is due. If the Trump administration was involved in this, then props to them.

The UAE becomes the first Persian Gulf state to normalize relations with Israel (and being the big financial center that they are, I think it was just a matter of time). Now the question is whether additional Persian Gulf states (like Oman, Qatar, or Bahrain) will follow UAE's lead. I think Saudi Arabia will not agree to anything until a true final resolution is achieved between Israel and Palestine.

The WH is certainly going to try to take as much credit as they can. Apparently Israel has agreed to cease annexation activities for the time being.

I’m not sure KSA will be so reticent to follow suit - they are bosom buddies with UAE and their strategic ties to Israel have accelerated behind closed doors in recent years as they share a common foe in Iran.

Could this lead to Emirates and El Al starting flights between Dubai and Tel Aviv?

Definitely a historic day. We will need to see where it leads, but at the very least a win for the Middle east and for the White House team. I wonder if the rest of the middle East will be quick to join now that Iran seems to be the tipping point.

casinterest wrote:

Definitely a historic day.

If the intend leads to embassies being opened and ambassadors appointed it would sure be a historic day. Someone may still screw up, something in Palestine could go south bad enough for the UAE to withdraw, at least for a while.
Coming in August instead of October makes it seem genuine and not just good news election aid, so that is a plus as well.

Best regards
Thomas

ArchGuy1 wrote:

Could this lead to Emirates and El Al starting flights between Dubai and Tel Aviv?

Per the various news articles since, direct flights between the two countries are part of the items to be negotiated. Looks like the UAE will have to negotiate with Kuwait and Iraq to allow direct flights between both countries, given that Saudi Arabia bans all flights to/from Israel and I don't see them granting UAE any relief in that sense. And going around the Arabian Peninsula (a la QR) will be considerably less cost-effective (though that's likely LY's only option unless Iraq and Kuwait open a corridor for its flights).

einsteinboricua wrote:

ArchGuy1 wrote:

Could this lead to Emirates and El Al starting flights between Dubai and Tel Aviv?

Per the various news articles since, direct flights between the two countries are part of the items to be negotiated. Looks like the UAE will have to negotiate with Kuwait and Iraq to allow direct flights between both countries, given that Saudi Arabia bans all flights to/from Israel and I don't see them granting UAE any relief in that sense. And going around the Arabian Peninsula (a la QR) will be considerably less cost-effective (though that's likely LY's only option unless Iraq and Kuwait open a corridor for its flights).

Emirates could easily launch flights between Dubai and Tel Aviv as they can fly over Saudi Arabia.

ArchGuy1 wrote:

einsteinboricua wrote:

ArchGuy1 wrote:

Could this lead to Emirates and El Al starting flights between Dubai and Tel Aviv?

Per the various news articles since, direct flights between the two countries are part of the items to be negotiated. Looks like the UAE will have to negotiate with Kuwait and Iraq to allow direct flights between both countries, given that Saudi Arabia bans all flights to/from Israel and I don't see them granting UAE any relief in that sense. And going around the Arabian Peninsula (a la QR) will be considerably less cost-effective (though that's likely LY's only option unless Iraq and Kuwait open a corridor for its flights).

Emirates could easily launch flights between Dubai and Tel Aviv as they can fly over Saudi Arabia.

Overflight permits typically require origin, destination and approved routing—if the Saudis don’t want EK flying to TLV, they’ll just deny the overflights. Today, if you want to fly over Saudi from anywhere east and land at TLV, you’ll have request a Saudi overflight permit with Larnaca as your destination and land there, refile to TLV. Enforcement? Not hard to watch your progress today.

tommy1808 wrote:

casinterest wrote:

Definitely a historic day.

If the intend leads to embassies being opened and ambassadors appointed it would sure be a historic day. Someone may still screw up, something in Palestine could go south bad enough for the UAE to withdraw, at least for a while.
Coming in August instead of October makes it seem genuine and not just good news election aid, so that is a plus as well.

Best regards
Thomas

It will be interesting to watch and see if Iran pushes buttons in Hezbollah and Hamas to get the intended reaction out of Israel. It is a delicate situation, and I doubt that Iran is going to stand idly by.

GalaxyFlyer wrote:

Overflight permits typically require origin, destination and approved routing—if the Saudis don’t want EK flying to TLV, they’ll just deny the overflights. Today, if you want to fly over Saudi from anywhere east and land at TLV, you’ll have request a Saudi overflight permit with Larnaca as your destination and land there, refile to TLV. Enforcement? Not hard to watch your progress today.

And even then, there may not be a big business case supporting flights between both countries if there's a stop that needs to happen. Landing, refuel, drop off passengers on the leg to then fly the remainder of the segment...depending on the detour, the time seems better spent in the air.

Annexation standby until when? After the election?

GalaxyFlyer wrote:

ArchGuy1 wrote:

einsteinboricua wrote:

Per the various news articles since, direct flights between the two countries are part of the items to be negotiated. Looks like the UAE will have to negotiate with Kuwait and Iraq to allow direct flights between both countries, given that Saudi Arabia bans all flights to/from Israel and I don't see them granting UAE any relief in that sense. And going around the Arabian Peninsula (a la QR) will be considerably less cost-effective (though that's likely LY's only option unless Iraq and Kuwait open a corridor for its flights).

Emirates could easily launch flights between Dubai and Tel Aviv as they can fly over Saudi Arabia.

Overflight permits typically require origin, destination and approved routing—if the Saudis don’t want EK flying to TLV, they’ll just deny the overflights. Today, if you want to fly over Saudi from anywhere east and land at TLV, you’ll have request a Saudi overflight permit with Larnaca as your destination and land there, refile to TLV. Enforcement? Not hard to watch your progress today.

Saudi already gave permission to Air India to fly to Israel using their airspace (saudia->jordan->israel, a rather short detour). Given this and the very quiet and off-the-radar relations between israel and saudi, I can totally see emirated/etihad flying directly to Israel. At the time being El-Al isn't allowed using the saudi airspace so we'll have to wait and see about that.

The Saudis have been in bed with the Israelis since the fall of the Shah. That's hardly a new development.

I suspect the ongoing conflict in Libya and the tensions in the Eastern Med with Turkey are the drive behind this.

Turkey needs to be careful. Erdogan will find himself surrounded on all sides if he isn't careful.

Will there be synagogues built in the United Arab Emirates, including Dubai as part of the agreement?

One state solution about to happen? Even the Arabs gives up on a 2 state solution. Time for Palestinians to surrender.

May this be the first of many. A normalization across the Middle East would be a welcome (even if unlikely) development.

olle wrote:

One state solution about to happen? Even the Arabs gives up on a 2 state solution. Time for Palestinians to surrender.

That will likely not happen.

A one state solution either means that Israel accepts Palestinians on equal footing to Israelis or Israel formalizes this century's version of Apartheid, treating Palestinians who refuse to convert to Judaism as second class (essentially, Israel is a Jewish state and anyone who is otherwise is not entitled to full rights).

Not only that, but I REALLY don't think the entire Muslim world will allow a one state solution to take place, even if Israel renounces its claim to be a Jewish state and accepts Palestinians as equal.

No matter what happens, the one state solution will end up with those with Arab Israelis and Palestinians becoming a majority. Then what?

iirc Israel gives right of return to all Jews worldwide

If that right was taken up, is there rom within the current Israeli borders.

I see this as one large step towards war. This is a furthering of the Netanyahu plan to incite a war between Saudi Arabia / UAE and Iran, and this may be a nuclear war before it's over.

There is nothing good about this; this is just another act of pitting one tribe / faction against another as the British and the French did so wantonly in the first half of the 20th century. It led to nothing good then and it will lead to nothing good now.

Well, that would clarify a few things in the Middle East, wouldn’t it?

GalaxyFlyer wrote:

Well, that would clarify a few things in the Middle East, wouldn’t it?

Sounds a bit like cheerleading GF...kinda gross.

That said, if things came to that it should go down without ANY US assistance to the GCC bloc. If they want to settle scores with Iran they should have to sacrifice their own materiel and troops.

Aaron747 wrote:

if things came to that it should go down without ANY US assistance to the GCC bloc. If they want to settle scores with Iran they should have to sacrifice their own materiel and troops.

The problem with that analysis is that there are no (old) scores. The status quo in the region has remained unchanged for the last 3,000 years; Iran has been the major power in the region. There were wars which decided the Sunni / Shia regions, but those boundaries have been stable for many hundreds of years: since the founding of the Ottoman Empire at least.

This conflict has been manufactured by Netanyahu's promise to the Saudi's that they can usurp Iranian hegemony if they assist Israel (and the US under Republican rule) in destroying Iran as a nation. The goal seems to be to turn Iran into a vast Gaza strip, because in order for the Arabs to dominate Iran they would have to destroy Iran's industrial base. The Arabs have no industrial base, only oil money and western arms merchants. The oil isn't going to last forever and when the oil runs out, the Arabs will be vassals of the industrial states who will feed one side or the other as their wants and needs dictate.

The result will be to keep the Middle East in perpetual turmoil and low grade warfare.

That's a pretty sick foreign policy for the United States to be a part of; although, it is easy to see why Israel would like to (continue to) keep the ME in turmoil.

einsteinboricua wrote:

ArchGuy1 wrote:

Could this lead to Emirates and El Al starting flights between Dubai and Tel Aviv?

Per the various news articles since, direct flights between the two countries are part of the items to be negotiated. Looks like the UAE will have to negotiate with Kuwait and Iraq to allow direct flights between both countries, given that Saudi Arabia bans all flights to/from Israel and I don't see them granting UAE any relief in that sense. And going around the Arabian Peninsula (a la QR) will be considerably less cost-effective (though that's likely LY's only option unless Iraq and Kuwait open a corridor for its flights).

AI has flown over Saudi before to TLV, or was that a one-time thing?

Chaostheory wrote:

I suspect the ongoing conflict in Libya and the tensions in the Eastern Med with Turkey are the drive behind this. Turkey needs to be careful. Erdogan will find himself surrounded on all sides if he isn't careful.

i suspect it has more to do as a counter to Iran; the UAE and Israel have suddenly discovered that "the enemy of my enemy is my friend".

alfa164 wrote:

Chaostheory wrote:

I suspect the ongoing conflict in Libya and the tensions in the Eastern Med with Turkey are the drive behind this. Turkey needs to be careful. Erdogan will find himself surrounded on all sides if he isn't careful.

i suspect it has more to do as a counter to Iran; the UAE and Israel have suddenly discovered that "the enemy of my enemy is my friend".

This is much more on a Machiavellian level than either of you seem to realize.
This has nothing to do with Libya or Turkey and nobody has "discovered" anything recently.

The players behind this plot are: Benjamin Netanyahu, Mohammed bin Salman. Donald Trump and whoever the sickos running the UAE are.
There isn't an ounce of human morality in any of them.

Aaron747 wrote:

The WH is certainly going to try to take as much credit as they can. Apparently Israel has agreed to cease annexation activities for the time being.

The whole thing seems like vaporware. "We've agreed to stop robbing banks for the time being." Uh ok well it's illegal and you're gonna go back to robbing banks the instant we're distracted so....yay?

What will be the Democrats' positions towards Netanyahu if they win the elections?

einsteinboricua wrote:

No matter what happens, the one state solution will end up with those with Arab Israelis and Palestinians becoming a majority. Then what?

And that is why the "one state solution" was not, and will not, ever be a serious proposal. That block would instantly be 50+% of the electorate in Israel, and that is why Israel won´t do it.

It would appear to me that few of the political parties would see political power again: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of ... _in_Israel

best regards
Thomas

All the talk about the Russians or Chinese interfering in American elections... I get the feeling that the UAE (and other Gulf States) would rather have=a Trump Term 2 and therefore a clear and known quantity that will keep trying to squash Iran FOR THEM, over a hypothetically softer Biden policy which would mean they would have to carry more the load confronting Iran. So why not get a deal that helps Trump win reelection by shoring up the Christian fundamentalists in the US and also getting business ties with Israel PLUS some symbolic concessions on the Palestinians that make them look good? Seems like a win win win for the geopoliticals, but a shocking reward to a man who is openly racist against Muslims and Arabs (and basically anyone who is not white European American conservative rich mysogynistic male).

Significant step towards peace in the region! As big as the peace deal between Egypt-Israel decades back.

I hope we will also see a draw down of the enormous military expenditure in the region.

Aaron747 wrote:

GalaxyFlyer wrote:

Well, that would clarify a few things in the Middle East, wouldn’t it?

Sounds a bit like cheerleading GF...kinda gross.

That said, if things came to that it should go down without ANY US assistance to the GCC bloc. If they want to settle scores with Iran they should have to sacrifice their own materiel and troops.

Mere statement of fact, review the few millenniums of history. Or just the US Civil War which clarified a lot in the US. Or WW II.

tommy1808 wrote:

And that is why the "one state solution" was not, and will not, ever be a serious proposal. That block would instantly be 50+% of the electorate in Israel, and that is why Israel won´t do it.

It would appear to me that few of the political parties would see political power again: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of ... _in_Israel

best regards
Thomas

Imagine you are a Palestinian. In which country would you like to live?
Positive discrimination does wonders in India.
Why should it not work in Israel?

Indeed I feel the African elite should go to India to study. That's where the world can learn how different cultures can live peacefully together.

Maybe one could reserve defence and foreign policy for today's Israelis. Once other Palestinians reach a good quality of life they also get the vote for other policy areas.

GalaxyFlyer wrote:

Aaron747 wrote:

GalaxyFlyer wrote:

Well, that would clarify a few things in the Middle East, wouldn’t it?

Sounds a bit like cheerleading GF...kinda gross.

That said, if things came to that it should go down without ANY US assistance to the GCC bloc. If they want to settle scores with Iran they should have to sacrifice their own materiel and troops.

Mere statement of fact, review the few millenniums of history. Or just the US Civil War which clarified a lot in the US. Or WW II.

Or Afghanistan/ Iraq.

BawliBooch wrote:

Significant step towards peace in the region! As big as the peace deal between Egypt-Israel decades back.

I hope we will also see a draw down of the enormous military expenditure in the region.

Doubtful and fairly naive to think that:

Why Trump's Israel Deal Is A Win For Those Pushing Endless War


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=u6aSylG0kPU

Sokes wrote:

tommy1808 wrote:

And that is why the "one state solution" was not, and will not, ever be a serious proposal. That block would instantly be 50+% of the electorate in Israel, and that is why Israel won´t do it.

It would appear to me that few of the political parties would see political power again: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of ... _in_Israel

best regards
Thomas

Imagine you are a Palestinian. In which country would you like to live?
Positive discrimination does wonders in India.
Why should it not work in Israel?

Indeed I feel the African elite should go to India to study. That's where the world can learn how different cultures can live peacefully together.

Maybe one could reserve defense and foreign policy for today's Israelis. Once other Palestinians reach a good quality of life they also get the vote for other policy areas.

This is my point PA should declare surrender dissolve and force the Israel back as full occupying power.

Within one generation it will be a 2 state solution or for Palestiians even better a one state solution. The 2 state solution will probably be a federation after all the years with hilltop activities and Caunt Bernadotte 2 state federation will be the best option.

Making peace sunni shia in paralell with peace agreements with israel is equal important.

Right now the main show is sunni against shia and while it seems the israel hilltop is happy with that we will never see a region where israel can develop or live in peace in.

And in this context israel hilltop movement and israel occypying forces making it easy for iran and other extreme arab countries even saudi.

TWA772LR wrote:

einsteinboricua wrote:

ArchGuy1 wrote:

Could this lead to Emirates and El Al starting flights between Dubai and Tel Aviv?

Per the various news articles since, direct flights between the two countries are part of the items to be negotiated. Looks like the UAE will have to negotiate with Kuwait and Iraq to allow direct flights between both countries, given that Saudi Arabia bans all flights to/from Israel and I don't see them granting UAE any relief in that sense. And going around the Arabian Peninsula (a la QR) will be considerably less cost-effective (though that's likely LY's only option unless Iraq and Kuwait open a corridor for its flights).

AI has flown over Saudi before to TLV, or was that a one-time thing?

AI suspended flights to Israel (which do fly over Saudi) only because of the pandemic. Once that is over, flights are expected to resume.

BTW, now that Israel and the UAE will have relations, that theoretically opens up a shorter route for AI to reach Israel. This would involve flying from India over DXB, then over international waters in the Persian Gulf between Qatar and Iran, then along the the Saudi-Iraqi border to Jordan. Currently flights from India to Israel pass over central Oman which is a longer route.

UAE Official: Bahrain and Oman will be next to establish diplomatic relations with Israel.

I saw the news on tv.

xwb777 wrote:

UAE Official: Bahrain and Oman will be next to establish diplomatic relations with Israel.

I saw the news on tv.

Fantastic!

xwb777 wrote:

UAE Official: Bahrain and Oman will be next to establish diplomatic relations with Israel.

I saw the news on tv.

I think Oman will be next; Oman has always been perceived as a more neutral Arab country and IIRC, Israel and Oman had trade offices up until 2000.

Now, whether they are perceived to be the next ones to establish relations doesn't mean they'll immediately do so either.

If all arabic states has peace with israel israel has no excuse for occupation anymore

Next is to make economical ties closer in the region.

Israel and autocratic nations always had very close relationships. It is called Pegasus license. The irony, for Israel Holocaust which happened few decades ago still is a very sensitive issue, but selling spyware to dictators of countries which don't even recognize Israel to oppress their own citizens present day, no problem.

Rumour: First flight between Abu Dhabi and Tel Aviv by late 2020 or early 2021.

Will be searching for the source.

I just thought of something. I read up on how AI got overflight rights from Saudi Arabia en route to TLV and how LY is suing the government to halt AI flights until LY has similar privileges (makes sense, given that AI can then offer India-Israel flights cheaper than LY).

What if Saudi Arabia engages in this airspace proxy war to the point where LY becomes financially unstable from its South and Southeast Asia flights? Imagine SQ and TG being allowed direct routing to Israel instead of circuiting routing? What if Saudi Arabia convinces other Arab countries to open their airspace to other airlines? SA and KQ can then fly directly to Israel while LY will need to take the longer way.

Maybe Saudi Arabia can allow EK/EY to fly through to Israel but ban LY from flying there, putting LY at a disadvantage (even though Oman opened its airspace to LY).

Could this be Saudi Arabia's new pressure tool against Israel?

einsteinboricua wrote:

I just thought of something. I read up on how AI got overflight rights from Saudi Arabia en route to TLV and how LY is suing the government to halt AI flights until LY has similar privileges (makes sense, given that AI can then offer India-Israel flights cheaper than LY).

What if Saudi Arabia engages in this airspace proxy war to the point where LY becomes financially unstable from its South and Southeast Asia flights? Imagine SQ and TG being allowed direct routing to Israel instead of circuiting routing? What if Saudi Arabia convinces other Arab countries to open their airspace to other airlines? SA and KQ can then fly directly to Israel while LY will need to take the longer way.

Maybe Saudi Arabia can allow EK/EY to fly through to Israel but ban LY from flying there, putting LY at a disadvantage (even though Oman opened its airspace to LY).

Could this be Saudi Arabia's new pressure tool against Israel?

Why would Saudi Arabia want to put pressure of Israel?To get what?

According to a reply to one of the posts on istagram, is that the UAE carriers has been given approvals to overfly Saudi Arabia to TLV but not to Israeli carriers. Another reply from a user who claims to be an EL AL employee is that AUH might be the first route by an Israeli carrier and Dubai will be exclusively operated by EK/FZ.

How true is this remains to be seen.

einsteinboricua wrote:

I just thought of something. I read up on how AI got overflight rights from Saudi Arabia en route to TLV and how LY is suing the government to halt AI flights until LY has similar privileges (makes sense, given that AI can then offer India-Israel flights cheaper than LY).

What if Saudi Arabia engages in this airspace proxy war to the point where LY becomes financially unstable from its South and Southeast Asia flights? Imagine SQ and TG being allowed direct routing to Israel instead of circuiting routing? What if Saudi Arabia convinces other Arab countries to open their airspace to other airlines? SA and KQ can then fly directly to Israel while LY will need to take the longer way.

Maybe Saudi Arabia can allow EK/EY to fly through to Israel but ban LY from flying there, putting LY at a disadvantage (even though Oman opened its airspace to LY).

Could this be Saudi Arabia's new pressure tool against Israel?

Not sure that's really the case for SA, the optimal route for TLV-JNB is over Sudan which has its own problems before it even thinks about Israel. I flew TLV-JNB in February and we hit the Red Sea at Eilat then pretty much bisected it until we hit Eritrea (or Djibouti) then cut in to the continent and made a B line to JNB.

ariel1981 wrote:

Why would Saudi Arabia want to put pressure of Israel?To get what?

Add to the Israeli embargo, put El-Al in a competitive disadvantage against other carriers that need to overfly Saudi Arabia, which would force the government to intervene.

Finally, Ek makes the 'Kosher' meal option in its flights look Legit.
It would be interesting to know about the Air services agreement between these two.

if Jpost sources is correct it seems that Palestinians actually has been part of creating the agreement;

https://www.jpost.com/arab-israeli-conf ... out-639405


Sufian Abu Zaida, a former member of Fatah from the Gaza Strip who is closely associated with Dahlan, is one of the few Palestinians who believe that the time has come for the Palestinian leadership to embark on a soul-searching process in order to learn from its mistakes.
“The time has come for us, as Palestinians, to realize that times are changing and are no longer working according to the Palestinian timing,” Abu Zaida said. “We need to realize that [Arab] states are looking [out] for their own interests before taking into consideration the interests of others. The time has come for us to realize, as Palestinians, that we are no longer the center of the universe, and that the Palestinian issue, despite its importance and sanctity, is no longer the central issue of Arab and foreign countries, and that there are conflicts and disasters in this world that are seen as more important than the Palestinian issue.”