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Sokes
Posts: 2773
Joined: Sat Mar 09, 2019 4:48 pm

Re: German government concludes that Putin opponent Alexei Navalny was poisoned

Tue Sep 08, 2020 3:52 pm

Machiavelli wrote in the beginning of "The Prince" that he just describes what he observed without going into moral questions. Cause and effect, so to say. I find this book fantastic. But moral people find it outrageous.
Machiavelli is accused of giving instructions to psychopaths. Well, I doubt psychopaths need instructions. But others need some information what to expect from psychopaths.


I half agree with Redd:
-Democracies are not good in making poor people rich. But they are good in preventing famines.

-China does well. But how many authoritarian regimes function like China? They are the exception.

-Germany and Japan developed well under authoritarian regimes. And then?

-Iraq or Syria are multi culti. It's predictable that in a collective society people vote according to identity. India is to some extent the exception. But that may be because the murder of Gandhi gave communalism a bad name.

-A society which experienced violence recently is likely to experience it again. I'm not optimistic about a democratic Iraq or Afghanistan.

-Why did socialist Russia fail to become a successful democracy, but socialist Poland succeeded? I really don't know.

-In Italia a businessman in conflict with a supplier can look forward to a six years court case.
Why are democracies at risk to become dysfunctional? Banking regulation also comes to mind.

-Indian parties have a party high command which decides the candidates. In Germany candidates are decided by elections at meetings of local leaders or by local party members.
No law stops an Indian party to do away with party high command. It's their mentality.
Try to get selected if fighting corruption is your priority.

-Pluralism and a functioning legal system are most important.

-Democracies require a certain level of wealth and education. I believe 20 years from now India will do much better. That's because of increasing education.

-In the Indian town of my mother in law industry can't prosper. It's the same fate for 95% of Indian towns. If one asks my uneducated mother in law why industries in the industrial estate don't succeed she says that at this place murder victims were burnt and that their spirits still roam there.

Of course there are people who understand politics. But they won't tell their neighbour. Many subsidy schemes are arbitrary. One can apply. But try to get selected if you criticize politics. Politicians run educational institutions for the same reason. If one is critical, one can't get a seat for one's child.
The system is such that the ignorant majority will stay ignorant and will decide.

-My brother in law is smart. He understands politics. I asked him whom he would elect, a good politician who doesn't give subsidies or a bad one who gives subsidies?
" I have four children. I need the money. I vote for the politician with subsidies. "

During the British Empire one school of thought was paternalism. I agree.
But just as a father tries to get his child stand on his own feet, a paternalist system must work towards democracy.
 
Sokes
Posts: 2773
Joined: Sat Mar 09, 2019 4:48 pm

Re: German government concludes that Putin opponent Alexei Navalny was poisoned

Tue Sep 08, 2020 3:52 pm

Machiavelli wrote in the beginning of "The Prince" that he just describes what he observed without going into moral questions. Cause and effect, so to say. I find this book fantastic. But moral people find it outrageous.
Machiavelli is accused of giving instructions to psychopaths. Well, I doubt psychopaths need instructions. But others need some information what to expect from psychopaths.


I half agree with Redd:
-Democracies are not good in making poor people rich. But they are good in preventing famines.

-China does well. But how many authoritarian regimes function like China? They are the exception.

-Germany and Japan developed well under authoritarian regimes. And then?

-Iraq or Syria are multi culti. It's predictable that in a collective society people vote according to identity. India is to some extent the exception. But that may be because the murder of Gandhi gave communalism a bad name.

-A society which experienced violence recently is likely to experience it again. I'm not optimistic about a democratic Iraq or Afghanistan.

-Why did socialist Russia fail to become a successful democracy, but socialist Poland succeeded? I really don't know.

-In Italia a businessman in conflict with a supplier can look forward to a six years court case.
Why are democracies at risk to become dysfunctional? Banking regulation also comes to mind.

-Indian parties have a party high command which decides the candidates. In Germany candidates are decided by elections at meetings of local leaders or by local party members.
No law stops an Indian party to do away with party high command. It's their mentality.
Try to get selected if fighting corruption is your priority.

-Pluralism and a functioning legal system are most important.

-Democracies require a certain level of wealth and education. I believe 20 years from now India will do much better. That's because of increasing education.

-In the Indian town of my mother in law industry can't prosper. It's the same fate for 95% of Indian towns. If one asks my uneducated mother in law why industries in the industrial estate don't succeed she says that at this place murder victims were burnt and that their spirits still roam there.

Of course there are people who understand politics. But they won't tell their neighbour. Many subsidy schemes are arbitrary. One can apply. But try to get selected if you criticize politics. Politicians run educational institutions for the same reason. If one is critical, one can't get a seat for one's child.
The system is such that the ignorant majority will stay ignorant and will decide.

-My brother in law is smart. He understands politics. I asked him whom he would elect, a good politician who doesn't give subsidies or a bad one who gives subsidies?
" I have four children. I need the money. I vote for the politician with subsidies. "

During the British Empire one school of thought was paternalism. I agree.
But just as a father tries to get his child stand on his own feet, a paternalist system must work towards democracy.
 
Newark727
Posts: 2619
Joined: Tue Dec 29, 2009 6:42 pm

Re: German government concludes that Putin opponent Alexei Navalny was poisoned

Tue Sep 08, 2020 5:23 pm

Sokes wrote:
-Germany and Japan developed well under authoritarian regimes. And then?


Neither Germany nor Japan could be said to have completely developed under authoritarian regimes pre-WWII. Germany had a long tradition of local self-governance, if not necessarily at the level of the dukes and kings, and the pre-WWI Kaiserreich system was, if not a democracy, not an absolute monarchy either, with a multi-party parliament. Japan's system you could make a better case for, but the Meji restoration didn't jump to the WWII-era junta in a single step. There were liberal factions in Japan's ruling oligarchies, and brief experiments in parliamentary politics and mass media in the 1920s. Their WWII government was somehow both incredibly repressive and incredibly fractious; it never reached the level of unquestioned single-man rule that Germany under the Nazis did.
 
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HowardWow1997
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Re: German government concludes that Putin opponent Alexei Navalny was poisoned

Fri Sep 11, 2020 9:00 am

Newark727 wrote:
Sokes wrote:
-Germany and Japan developed well under authoritarian regimes. And then?


Neither Germany nor Japan could be said to have completely developed under authoritarian regimes pre-WWII. Germany had a long tradition of local self-governance, if not necessarily at the level of the dukes and kings, and the pre-WWI Kaiserreich system was, if not a democracy, not an absolute monarchy either, with a multi-party parliament. Japan's system you could make a better case for, but the Meji restoration didn't jump to the WWII-era junta in a single step. There were liberal factions in Japan's ruling oligarchies, and brief experiments in parliamentary politics and mass media in the 1920s. Their WWII government was somehow both incredibly repressive and incredibly fractious; it never reached the level of unquestioned single-man rule that Germany under the Nazis did.

The Iron Curtain, Wars, Resource Economy, Dictatorship, Support for Autocratic Countries. Where is the word about development here?
 
tu204
Posts: 2277
Joined: Wed Mar 08, 2006 12:36 am

Re: German government concludes that Putin opponent Alexei Navalny was poisoned

Sat Sep 12, 2020 10:08 pm

Reading all the news and it still makes no sense to me.

What is the point of poisoning with such a trail someone that would get support of like 5% of the population, then let him leave the country.

This is akin to poisoning Michael Moore with some poison that only the U.S. would have and then let him leave to Russia for treatment and diagnosis.

Put on your thinking hats, boys and girls.
 
Sokes
Posts: 2773
Joined: Sat Mar 09, 2019 4:48 pm

Re: German government concludes that Putin opponent Alexei Navalny was poisoned

Sun Sep 13, 2020 12:25 am

tu204 wrote:
Reading all the news and it still makes no sense to me.

What is the point of poisoning with such a trail someone that would get support of like 5% of the population, then let him leave the country.

This is akin to poisoning Michael Moore with some poison that only the U.S. would have and then let him leave to Russia for treatment and diagnosis.

Put on your thinking hats, boys and girls.

The possibility of false flag always has to be considered, specially now as the gas pipeline is close to completion.
The problem is that Putin has a history of such attacks.

I read that the victim was the person most likely to unite the opposition. That doesn't sound like 5% to me.
But I'm happy to be corrected.
 
T4thH
Posts: 1335
Joined: Thu Jun 06, 2019 11:17 pm

Re: German government concludes that Putin opponent Alexei Navalny was poisoned

Mon Sep 14, 2020 10:55 am

Poisoning of Nawalny with member of Nowitschok agent group has been now confirmed by two independent laboratories in Sweden and France. So the results of German army laboratory have been confirmed.
Source is in German:
https://www.bz-berlin.de/berlin/internationale-labore-bestaetigen-nawalny-vergiftung-nowitschok
Please note, there is a mistake in this news, they wrote: Nowitschok agent, but this is wrong. It is a new member of the Nowitschok group agents.
The independent OVCW tests are still on-going, results are still not published.
 
94717
Posts: 2789
Joined: Tue Feb 06, 2007 3:38 am

Re: German government concludes that Putin opponent Alexei Navalny was poisoned

Mon Sep 14, 2020 11:18 am

What is important is that it seems that the poison used requires labs and knowledge that is complicated to have outside organizations like FSB.
 
T4thH
Posts: 1335
Joined: Thu Jun 06, 2019 11:17 pm

Re: German government concludes that Putin opponent Alexei Navalny was poisoned

Tue Sep 15, 2020 1:19 am

Some good news. Nawalny is doing much better now. He does not need any ventilation and is already able to leave his bed.
https://www.tagesschau.de/ausland/nawalny-vergiftung-zustand-101.html
Source is in German. Use your translator, implemented in your browser.
 
L410Turbolet
Posts: 6341
Joined: Wed May 05, 2004 9:12 am

Re: Putin Opponent Alexei Navalny Apparently Poisoned

Wed Sep 16, 2020 10:37 am

Sokes wrote:
Why does crawling into bed with Putin sabotages EU energy security?


Straight from horse's mouth:

A key part of ensuring secure and affordable supplies of energy to Europeans involves diversifying supply routes. This includes identifying and building new routes that decrease the dependence of EU countries on a single supplier of natural gas and other energy resources.

https://ec.europa.eu/energy/topics/ener ... -routes_en

Why does crawling into bed with Putin is even considered a viable option?

Sokes wrote:
Do you know about Atlantikbrücke? No German government wants to spite the Americans.


Blaming US president helps Berlin dodge deeper questions over Nord Stream 2 project.

Berlin has become so obsessed with its distaste for Trump that it has lost sight of how it is perceived among key officials in the U.S. — the country that, for better or worse, remains by far its most important partner in both strategic terms and on trade. Most senior German officials seem to think that if they can wait out the storm until November, things will return to normal, provided that the polls are accurate and Trump loses his reelection bid.

That’s almost certainly naive.

Up until his death in 2018, U.S. Senator John McCain, no friend of Trump and no enemy of Germany, made little secret of his frustration about Berlin’s intransigence on Nord Stream 2, joining colleagues in urging the administration to "use all tools at its disposal" to derail the project.

McCain was no outlier. Another former U.S. senator and longtime McCain confidant shares those concerns: Joe Biden. He continued to criticize the plan after stepping down as vice president in 2016, calling it a "bad deal" for Europe. He has said nothing in the interim to suggest that he has changed his view.


https://www.politico.eu/article/germany ... ine-dream/
 
tommy1808
Posts: 14691
Joined: Thu Nov 21, 2013 3:24 pm

Re: Putin Opponent Alexei Navalny Apparently Poisoned

Wed Sep 16, 2020 11:39 am

L410Turbolet wrote:
Why does crawling into bed with Putin is even considered a viable option?


it isn´t. However, there are two options (and only those two):

1. Let it be build and get gas for money, paid for by energy companies and their customers
2. Stop the project, and just pay Gazprom the forgone profits over the project lifetime with tax payers money.

There is a bilateral investment protection treaty in force, and short of valid international (read: United Nations) sanctions Russia is getting its money regardless of what happens to Nord Stream 2.

best regards
Thomas
 
Sokes
Posts: 2773
Joined: Sat Mar 09, 2019 4:48 pm

Re: Putin Opponent Alexei Navalny Apparently Poisoned

Thu Sep 17, 2020 4:31 am

L410Turbolet wrote:
A key part of ensuring secure and affordable supplies of energy to Europeans involves diversifying supply routes. This includes identifying and building new routes that decrease the dependence of EU countries on a single supplier of natural gas and other energy resources.

https://ec.europa.eu/energy/topics/ener ... -routes_en
...

Answer here:
viewtopic.php?f=11&t=1451873
 
T4thH
Posts: 1335
Joined: Thu Jun 06, 2019 11:17 pm

Re: German government concludes that Putin opponent Alexei Navalny was poisoned

Sat Sep 19, 2020 3:17 pm

He seems to recover fast now. Instagram: photo as he is training to walk on steps.
https://www.instagram.com/p/CFUAPu8llSO/?utm_source=ig_embed

In "Charite central" hospital building he has nice long stairways for his training.
 
T4thH
Posts: 1335
Joined: Thu Jun 06, 2019 11:17 pm

Re: German government concludes that Putin opponent Alexei Navalny was poisoned

Wed Sep 23, 2020 7:51 am

Alexei Nawalny has left the Charite hospital in Berlin already yesterday, he was 32 days in "Charite central". An acute hospital treatment is not any more needed.
https://www.n-tv.de/politik/Putin-Kritiker-Nawalny-verlaesst-Charite-article22054570.html
 
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Braybuddy
Posts: 7000
Joined: Fri Aug 20, 2004 8:14 pm

Re: German government concludes that Putin opponent Alexei Navalny was poisoned

Sun Dec 13, 2020 11:18 am

The Sunday Times is now reporting that Russian intelligence agents gave Navalny a second dose of novichok while he lay in a coma before being airlifted to Germany:
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/reve ... -nh32x737j
(behind a paywall)
Allegations come from German security sources. As he had been already treated with atropine, a medicine used to treat poisonings, this counteracted the second dose of novichok, although it prolonged his coma.
 
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fallap
Posts: 1070
Joined: Thu Jan 15, 2009 11:36 am

Re: German government concludes that Putin opponent Alexei Navalny was poisoned

Sun Dec 13, 2020 5:35 pm

Redd wrote:
ltbewr wrote:


Authoritarian countries develop not because of their harsh leaders, but despite them. Yes, China has undergone an impressive level of development - but so did the US and Western Europe in the wake of World War Two. China simply started from a much lower position and has spend the last couple of decades catching up to the rest of the developed world. In fact, China's progress only really began to take off after Deng Xiaoping assumed power and undertook a de-Maonization of China (just like Kruchev initiated de-Stalinization after 1953) and opened China up for foreign trade and private entrepreneurship.

Allow me to quote from page 393 in Democracy in America, by Alexis de Tocqueville (1835):

"It cannot be said too much. There is nothing more fruitful in wonders than the art of being free; but there is nothing harder than apprenticeship in liberty. It is not the same with despotism. Despotism often presents itself as the repairer of all the misfortunes suffered; it is the support of legitimate rights, the upholder of the oppressed, and the founder of order. Peoples fall asleep amid the temporary prosperity that it brings forth; and when they awaken, they are miserable. Liberty, in contrast, is usually born amid storms; it is established painfully in the midst of civil discord, and only when it is already old can its benefits be known."

Authoritarian regimes have the benefit of initiating quick and effective policy due to the fact that, unlike liberal democracies, the opposition parties, the people, and various interest groups' interests are not taken into account - and as such a lot of red tape is omitted. I would personally still prefer to live in a liberal democracy with modest growth, than an authoritarian regime, with a massive growth, that at any given time may bulldoze my house in order to build a new highway or ship me and my family of to re-education camps, or simply make me disappear.
 
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atcsundevil
Moderator
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Re: German government concludes that Putin opponent Alexei Navalny was poisoned

Mon Dec 14, 2020 3:44 am

Please stay on topic. Personal comments will be removed.

✈️ atcsundevil
 
T4thH
Posts: 1335
Joined: Thu Jun 06, 2019 11:17 pm

Re: German government concludes that Putin opponent Alexei Navalny was poisoned

Mon Dec 14, 2020 5:19 am

Braybuddy wrote:
The Sunday Times is now reporting that Russian intelligence agents gave Navalny a second dose of novichok while he lay in a coma before being airlifted to Germany:
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/reve ... -nh32x737j
(behind a paywall)
Allegations come from German security sources. As he had been already treated with atropine, a medicine used to treat poisonings, this counteracted the second dose of novichok, although it prolonged his coma.


I am not able to find any news according Navalny in German news services/newspapers in last 7 days.
So, is this Sunday Times story just a hoax?
 
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Braybuddy
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Re: German government concludes that Putin opponent Alexei Navalny was poisoned

Mon Dec 14, 2020 11:00 am

T4thH wrote:
I am not able to find any news according Navalny in German news services/newspapers in last 7 days.
So, is this Sunday Times story just a hoax?

The Sunday Times has a good reputation, although they did get it wrong with the Hitler diaries nearly 40 years ago. The have a well-respected team of reporters. That's not to say they can't get it wrong, of course, but this is the cover story in their magazine this week.
 
T4thH
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Re: German government concludes that Putin opponent Alexei Navalny was poisoned

Mon Dec 14, 2020 2:53 pm

Braybuddy wrote:
T4thH wrote:
I am not able to find any news according Navalny in German news services/newspapers in last 7 days.
So, is this Sunday Times story just a hoax?

The Sunday Times has a good reputation, although they did get it wrong with the Hitler diaries nearly 40 years ago. The have a well-respected team of reporters. That's not to say they can't get it wrong, of course, but this is the cover story in their magazine this week.


Today in Germany, we have just now (last minutes) also some new News regarding Navalny.

Seems the 8 FSB member, involved in the assassination have been identified, have been named and pictures of them are published. But it is not mentioned in the Breaking news, that there was a second assassination attack in hospital. Perhaps in other news.
Breaking news, sources seems German newspaper "Spiegel" and "CNN".
As breaking news, only a link, which will soon expire. In German.
https://www.n-tv.de/der_tag/Der-Tag-am-Montag-den-14-Dezember-2020-article22233408.html

It is still to early for update in German Google News. So no further links till now found.
 
 
 
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Francoflier
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Re: German government concludes that Putin opponent Alexei Navalny was poisoned

Mon Dec 14, 2020 9:30 pm

This is either brilliant investigative work, or the FSB/KGB has lost its touch...

I'm guessing both.
 
Sokes
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Re: German government concludes that Putin opponent Alexei Navalny was poisoned

Tue Dec 15, 2020 12:08 am

T4thH wrote:

Who is Bellingcat?
How did they get GPS data of a dozen Russian agents?
Do agents run around now with a GPS tracking system?
Even the other information sounds difficult to access, like passenger lists of airlines.
 
Sokes
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Joined: Sat Mar 09, 2019 4:48 pm

Re: German government concludes that Putin opponent Alexei Navalny was poisoned

Tue Dec 15, 2020 12:21 am

Bellingcat on it's webpage doesn't tell who they are. But they explain how they caught the agents:
https://www.bellingcat.com/resources/20 ... thodology/
 
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Braybuddy
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Re: German government concludes that Putin opponent Alexei Navalny was poisoned

Tue Dec 15, 2020 8:57 am

Mark Galeotti of the Moscow Times reckons that, while up to recently Navalny was more dangerous to Putin dead than alive, the Kremlin has become increasingly paranoid, and his more recent activities now made him "fair game":

https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2020/12/ ... pot-a72353
 
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Braybuddy
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Re: German government concludes that Putin opponent Alexei Navalny was poisoned

Thu Dec 17, 2020 3:41 pm

True to form, Putin blames US special services in a plan to attack him. As per usual, he refuses to use Navalny's name, which probably says a lot:
“As for the patient at the Berlin hospital, this patient is supported by the U.S. special services.”

https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2020/12/ ... nce-a72394
 
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Braybuddy
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Re: German government concludes that Putin opponent Alexei Navalny was poisoned

Mon Dec 21, 2020 7:58 pm

Fascinating twist in the whole saga, whereby Navalny tricks an agent into giving him details of how the operation was carried out, including putting the poison on his underpants, exactly as the reports last week suggested:
https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2020/12/ ... all-a72429

I think one FSB agent's career has just been terminated. Or worse . . .
 
Sokes
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Re: German government concludes that Putin opponent Alexei Navalny was poisoned

Tue Dec 22, 2020 3:41 am

Braybuddy wrote:
Fascinating twist in the whole saga, whereby Navalny tricks an agent into giving him details of how the operation was carried out, including putting the poison on his underpants, ...

I'm not quite sure what to think of Bellingcat.
My first thought was "How did they get the agent's telephone number? "
But as long as Russia refuses to return Navalny's clothes I tend to believe it. Why wouldn't I, if Navalny himself considers Bellingcat's intelligence credible?
 
94717
Posts: 2789
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Re: German government concludes that Putin opponent Alexei Navalny was poisoned

Tue Dec 22, 2020 10:17 am

It seems that Russian authorizes is leaking like ever before..

If FSB cannot even protect its own agents operating inside Russia from leaks that must be something very rutten in the state of Russia ;-)
 
WIederling
Posts: 10041
Joined: Sun Sep 13, 2015 2:15 pm

Re: German government concludes that Putin opponent Alexei Navalny was poisoned

Tue Dec 22, 2020 3:17 pm

Sokes wrote:
Braybuddy wrote:
Fascinating twist in the whole saga, whereby Navalny tricks an agent into giving him details of how the operation was carried out, including putting the poison on his underpants, ...

I'm not quite sure what to think of Bellingcat.
My first thought was "How did they get the agent's telephone number? "
But as long as Russia refuses to return Navalny's clothes I tend to believe it. Why wouldn't I, if Navalny himself considers Bellingcat's intelligence credible?


Navalny and Bellingcat get paid from the same ( convoluted path ) sources.
 
Sokes
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Re: German government concludes that Putin opponent Alexei Navalny was poisoned

Tue Dec 22, 2020 4:03 pm

WIederling wrote:
Navalny and Bellingcat get paid from the same ( convoluted path ) sources.

Are you aware that Navalny was in coma?
 
WIederling
Posts: 10041
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Re: German government concludes that Putin opponent Alexei Navalny was poisoned

Tue Dec 22, 2020 6:56 pm

Sokes wrote:
WIederling wrote:
Navalny and Bellingcat get paid from the same ( convoluted path ) sources.

Are you aware that Navalny was in coma?


So we've been told.

compare:
Zitronenfalter falten Zitronen.
 
Sokes
Posts: 2773
Joined: Sat Mar 09, 2019 4:48 pm

Re: German government concludes that Putin opponent Alexei Navalny was poisoned

Tue Dec 22, 2020 7:05 pm

And I always thought I'm the conspiracy theorist here.

There were doctors involved:
-hospital van airport to hospital
-hospital
-plane to Germany
-German hospital

They were all part of the conspiracy?

Edit:
I never heard the saying about the Zitronenfalter.
I googled: " One mustn't always take things literally."
I'm from Bavaria. Where are you from?
 
DTVG
Posts: 105
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Re: German government concludes that Putin opponent Alexei Navalny was poisoned

Tue Dec 22, 2020 7:56 pm

WIederling wrote:
Sokes wrote:
WIederling wrote:
Navalny and Bellingcat get paid from the same ( convoluted path ) sources.

Are you aware that Navalny was in coma?


So we've been told.

compare:
Zitronenfalter falten Zitronen.


So now I’m curious, what actually did happen to Navalny? I am open to hear a Tom Clancy version as well as a Gregor Gysi version.
 
alfa164
Topic Author
Posts: 4000
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Re: German government concludes that Putin opponent Alexei Navalny was poisoned

Tue Dec 22, 2020 7:57 pm

WIederling wrote:
Sokes wrote:
Braybuddy wrote:
Fascinating twist in the whole saga, whereby Navalny tricks an agent into giving him details of how the operation was carried out, including putting the poison on his underpants, ...

I'm not quite sure what to think of Bellingcat.
My first thought was "How did they get the agent's telephone number? "
But as long as Russia refuses to return Navalny's clothes I tend to believe it. Why wouldn't I, if Navalny himself considers Bellingcat's intelligence credible?

Navalny and Bellingcat get paid from the same ( convoluted path ) sources.


Do you have any evidence of that? It seems your excuses ran out of evidence a long time ago...

:roll:

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