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NYCVIE
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Nightmare Election Night Scenario - The Red Mirage

Wed Sep 09, 2020 5:00 am

Hey all,

So about a week ago Axios on HBO ran a story discussing what would be probably the worst outcome on Election Day for both sides, the Red Mirage. I'll link the video of the segment and an article but to summarize:

(According to the segment)
- Of typical mail voters, Democrats (69%) overwhelmingly outweigh Republicans (19%) and Independents (13%).
- This coming Election, mail in voting is expected to double in capacity.
- Since Democrats vote by mail more than Republicans and Independents, a much higher proportion of mail in votes will be Democratic ones (obviously).
- Mail in votes typically take longer to count (re: how it took a week (or more?) for us to know the final gap in the popular vote in 2016)
- So there could be a scenario where on Election Night, live voting that networks typically use to call states doesn't accurately represent the actual votes cast.
- Again, with a larger proportion of Democratic mail in votes, it looks as if Trump is in the lead and that he has won re-election
- However, a week or so later when mail in votes are all counted, the results look different in key states and Biden has actually won the election.

Now it's worth calling out that the organization bringing this theory up is Hawkfish, a Democratic data agency founded by Michael Bloomberg so take this with a grain of salt. However, I think it's an interesting topic to discuss. I pray this doesn't happen because I'm sure there would be massive civil unrest on both sides which we don't need more of. What are your thoughts?

Segment: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C74GXN2fock
Corresponding Article: https://www.axios.com/bloomberg-group-t ... d42bb.html
 
Kent350787
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Re: Nightmare Election Night Scenario - The Red Mirage

Wed Sep 09, 2020 5:59 am

This appears to be exactly the sort of scenario that the GoP has envisaged, and why Trump has bene running so hard against mail-in voting fraud, for which there is no wide-scale evidence.

If there were to be civil unrest, it would logically be as a result of the President's words.

Now, who would have expected that /s
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einsteinboricua
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Re: Nightmare Election Night Scenario - The Red Mirage

Wed Sep 09, 2020 3:59 pm

GalaxyFlyer wrote:
If Trump wins, are predicting the Democrats will NOT RESIST his victory as fraudulent and NOT try to I,peach, obstruct or fight? This summer the Democrat theme has been, “.we win or burn down the cities” and been egged on by many key Democratic groups to do just that-burn the country down if they don’t get their way.

And if Trump loses, Republicans (especially fringe ones) will also take to the streets to claim the election is a fraud and was tarnished (given that Trump himself has stated on numerous occasions that if he loses it's because there was cheating).

Both sides have fringe elements. Don't lump all together and don't pretend your side is innocent.

We also don't know if Trump will fully accept the results (remember 2016 when he said he would accept the results if he won?...what if he lost?).

NYCVIE wrote:
So there could be a scenario where on Election Night, live voting that networks typically use to call states doesn't accurately represent the actual votes cast.

Networks know how delicate the situation will be and I doubt that they'll call the election immediately unless it's known that even with mail vote, someone will carry the vote.

Some states, like FL, demand to have all their mail votes received BY election day so that the initial count is done and all that's left is the in person voting. Other states, like CA, require the vote to be postmarked and award about a week to count it.

But if we're thinking that WY's 3 EC votes will be left in suspense because people used absentee voting, then that's just fear mongering. I am also certain that in close states like OH, MI, and PA, the networks will take into account how the in person voting is going before calling the election. We expect all the SoS to release preliminary numbers of how many people voted by mail vs in person. If a state has more in person voting and there's a significant margin, they'll likely keep the election as too close to call or too early to call until mail in votes start being counted.

This nightmare scenario is a possibility, but it's just that: a possibility.
"You haven't seen a tree until you've seen its shadow from the sky."
 
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flyingturtle
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Re: Nightmare Election Night Scenario - The Red Mirage

Wed Sep 09, 2020 4:42 pm

In a much earlier election, there was some unclarity on whether the governor or the state legislature has to certify the election result, which in turn determines how the electors are going to vote at the Electoral College.

Now, it's the legislature. Republican-dominated ones could just declare the election result to be "Trump won the state! Fight me!", or it could withhold the certification altogether.

If neither candidate gets 270 electoral votes, then the current house gathers to elect the new president - but each state will have a vote, probably leading to a Trump victory.
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ltbewr
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Re: Nightmare Election Night Scenario - The Red Mirage

Wed Sep 09, 2020 6:04 pm

Some commentators have said that this years election could be Florida-Bush v. Gore 2000 'on steroids'. Indeed it could if it comes down again to 1 state to win the EC vote, one controlled by Republicans, with shady ballot handling, many late arriving mail ballots, massive court battles and possible street violence that might push Trump to a win. This year instead of 'hanging chads' of punch card voting forms, it could be the comparing of signatures on mail ballots to registration records.

No doubt $100 million or more would be put up by the candidates and parties to fight to win in battles of recounts, court hearings and so on. I was in DC the late afternoon/early evening of both of the 2000 US Supreme Court Bush v. Gore hearings. There were dozens of news network and station tech trucks outside the Supreme Court building, 100's of sign carrying protesters. This time if a case ends up in front of the SCOTUS, then I expect even more news presence, 1000's of protesters of both sides and possible violence.

The real fear as the OP suggests is that the machine counts, before many mail votes are counted support Trump in the most contested states. Exit polling will be very limited as will be far less voting at physical locations, mostly mail voting due to the COVID-19 pandemic, perhaps fewer wanting to discuss their votes so affecting the ability of the news networks to suggest who has won. Trump would declare victory by the early counts, like by midnight, in the contested states putting Biden in a defensive position. Whatever the case, Biden should never do a concession speech until the EC vote is set in December. If it looks like he is winning as the certified results with the mail votes are included and gives him a win, then he needs to go to the public and say 'Donald Trump - Your Fired!'.
 
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flyingturtle
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Re: Nightmare Election Night Scenario - The Red Mirage

Wed Sep 09, 2020 7:57 pm

ltbewr wrote:
Some commentators have said that this years election could be Florida-Bush v. Gore 2000 'on steroids'. Indeed it could if it comes down again to 1 state to win the EC vote, one controlled by Republicans, with shady ballot handling, many late arriving mail ballots, massive court battles and possible street violence that might push Trump to a win. This year instead of 'hanging chads' of punch card voting forms, it could be the comparing of signatures on mail ballots to registration records.


I have also thought of Bush v. Gore in the context of the 2020 election. The SCOTUS had one chance to determine what a fair and constitutionally valid election is - and, as a consequence, they could have stopped Florida's recount by saying: Whatever the Florida vote is, it is null and void. The Electoral College has to meet without Florida's electors. End of the story.

This would have spurred all the states into assuring fair elections, for example, by forcing the election boards to set up enough ballot stations in order to avoid three-hour waiting lines. Or by defining a clear and limited set of circumstances under which a vote will be nullified.
Reading accident reports is what calms me down
 
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einsteinboricua
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Re: Nightmare Election Night Scenario - The Red Mirage

Wed Sep 09, 2020 8:27 pm

flyingturtle wrote:
In a much earlier election, there was some unclarity on whether the governor or the state legislature has to certify the election result, which in turn determines how the electors are going to vote at the Electoral College.

The certificate that's accepted by Congress is the one signed by the governor, so while the state's legislature can say "no election, we assign all X votes to Candidate A", it's the governor who has to sign off on it and it's their signature that makes the vote official.

If a state, like PA, has the election and the GOP isn't happy with the results and sends the certificate without the governor's seal, PA's EC votes could be challenged and dismissed. In a state like OH, that's not a problem unless the governor refuses to sign what the legislature certifies. If he goes along, then no problem (though the votes could still be challenged on the grounds of how the state awarded the electors).
"You haven't seen a tree until you've seen its shadow from the sky."
 
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CitizenJustin
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Re: Nightmare Election Night Scenario - The Red Mirage

Wed Sep 09, 2020 9:16 pm

einsteinboricua wrote:
GalaxyFlyer wrote:
If Trump wins, are predicting the Democrats will NOT RESIST his victory as fraudulent and NOT try to I,peach, obstruct or fight? This summer the Democrat theme has been, “.we win or burn down the cities” and been egged on by many key Democratic groups to do just that-burn the country down if they don’t get their way.

And if Trump loses, Republicans (especially fringe ones) will also take to the streets to claim the election is a fraud and was tarnished (given that Trump himself has stated on numerous occasions that if he loses it's because there was cheating).

Both sides have fringe elements. Don't lump all together and don't pretend your side is innocent.

We also don't know if Trump will fully accept the results (remember 2016 when he said he would accept the results if he won?...what if he lost?).

NYCVIE wrote:
So there could be a scenario where on Election Night, live voting that networks typically use to call states doesn't accurately represent the actual votes cast.

Networks know how delicate the situation will be and I doubt that they'll call the election immediately unless it's known that even with mail vote, someone will carry the vote.

Some states, like FL, demand to have all their mail votes received BY election day so that the initial count is done and all that's left is the in person voting. Other states, like CA, require the vote to be postmarked and award about a week to count it.

But if we're thinking that WY's 3 EC votes will be left in suspense because people used absentee voting, then that's just fear mongering. I am also certain that in close states like OH, MI, and PA, the networks will take into account how the in person voting is going before calling the election. We expect all the SoS to release preliminary numbers of how many people voted by mail vs in person. If a state has more in person voting and there's a significant margin, they'll likely keep the election as too close to call or too early to call until mail in votes start being counted.

This nightmare scenario is a possibility, but it's just that: a possibility.



“Both sides have fringe elements. Don't lump all together and don't pretend your side is innocent.”


The vast majority of terrorism over the past decade has been committed by far-right extremists. You don’t see liberals committing the massacres, assaulting or even killing minorities and other vile acts of hatred. There’s no comparison between the “fringe” elements.
 
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einsteinboricua
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Re: Nightmare Election Night Scenario - The Red Mirage

Wed Sep 09, 2020 9:54 pm

CitizenJustin wrote:
The vast majority of terrorism over the past decade has been committed by far-right extremists. You don’t see liberals committing the massacres, assaulting or even killing minorities and other vile acts of hatred. There’s no comparison between the “fringe” elements.

We're not talking about shootings or hate crimes. However, it's fair to compare both sides with fringe elements, even if they don't use the same tactics.

A person wearing a MAGA hat is likely to spew hateful words to those they don't agree with...but have you considered donning a MAGA hat to a gay pride parade, even as a joke? Let me know how that goes. It's encouraged for a Republican to say "I don't agree with Trump"; let me know how it goes if you, as a liberal, say "You know, Black Lives Matter but let's also recognize the good cops in the system" in public.

You're right. There have been many more cases of right-wing extremism than left-wing. But let's not pretend that discord is just a right-wing thing or that the left wouldn't start employing these tactics if pushed to the brink.
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LittleFokker
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Re: Nightmare Election Night Scenario - The Red Mirage

Thu Sep 10, 2020 4:03 am

I recall saying in 2017 that in this election, if the Democratic candidate doesn't win the Electoral College 538-0, then America won't have a chance of ever fully healing. I still feel that way. That Trump is capable of winning anywhere in this country is nothing short of a black eye to the rest of the world of how embarrassing we are.

As for the night of November 3rd, I am prepared to not have resolution to the election. Hell, even if most media members call it, I won't consider it over until the pig is officially out of power and Republicans accept that reality. That's not a guarantee the way things are looking.

But as a regular consumer of 538.com content, I am aware that results of each state do not occur in a vacuum. The results of one state can indicate the likelihood of results in other states. If Florida is able to be called for Biden that night, the EC path gets pretty damn narrow for Traitor, and you can be assured Biden is winning PA, MI, and WI too. And if Biden flips places like GA, AZ, and TX it will be a sure thing.

But I refuse to be optimistic until Jan 20, 2021.
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TTailedTiger
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Re: Nightmare Election Night Scenario - The Red Mirage

Thu Sep 10, 2020 4:26 am

Uh we've already had several cases of mail-in ballot tampering recently. Only someone looking to cheat would want voting by mail. I would never trust my vote to be counted.

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nat ... 412010002/
 
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flyingclrs727
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Re: Nightmare Election Night Scenario - The Red Mirage

Thu Sep 10, 2020 4:48 am

flyingturtle wrote:
ltbewr wrote:
Some commentators have said that this years election could be Florida-Bush v. Gore 2000 'on steroids'. Indeed it could if it comes down again to 1 state to win the EC vote, one controlled by Republicans, with shady ballot handling, many late arriving mail ballots, massive court battles and possible street violence that might push Trump to a win. This year instead of 'hanging chads' of punch card voting forms, it could be the comparing of signatures on mail ballots to registration records.


I have also thought of Bush v. Gore in the context of the 2020 election. The SCOTUS had one chance to determine what a fair and constitutionally valid election is - and, as a consequence, they could have stopped Florida's recount by saying: Whatever the Florida vote is, it is null and void. The Electoral College has to meet without Florida's electors. End of the story.

This would have spurred all the states into assuring fair elections, for example, by forcing the election boards to set up enough ballot stations in order to avoid three-hour waiting lines. Or by defining a clear and limited set of circumstances under which a vote will be nullified.


My county is the smallest county in Texas that has a vote anywhere on election day system. For a county with about 365K population we have about 85 polling locations for almost 130 precincts. We had problems in 2016, the first year of the new system, with one precinct where people didn't get the word that that they didn't have to vote at their precinct. A whole bunch of people got in line to vote there after work after 5 pm. Unfortunately due to how late many showed up, it was impossible to get them to other precincts before poll closing time. This meant that precinct had to stay open late to let everyone who showed up before poll closing time to vote. It meant final results on all the races in the county were delayed. Still in the future the system could be set up to divert voters to nearby polling locations before poll closing time.
 
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moo
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Re: Nightmare Election Night Scenario - The Red Mirage

Thu Sep 10, 2020 4:49 am

TTailedTiger wrote:
Uh we've already had several cases of mail-in ballot tampering recently. Only someone looking to cheat would want voting by mail. I would never trust my vote to be counted.

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nat ... 412010002/


There is nothing wrong with absentee voting, including voting by mail, in a proper, stable and open democracy. The problem the US faces however is not one that is caused by voting by mail...

Every time this comes up, and I mean like over the past 25 years since I started taking an interest in what went on in US politics, its always the same things which shock me about the so called largest democracy on earth:

- Gerrymandering. Seriously, I've never ever seen such an appalling setup in my life in a "democracy". Some of the gerrymandered districts are so painfully and obviously created just to affect the outcome that this alone should mark US elections as not "free and fair".

- Voters being removed from registers. Time and again we hear reports of huge numbers, as in tens or hundreds of thousands of people, being removed from voting registers completely silently so that they cannot vote. The very fact that I, a non-American citizen not in the US, am routinely exposed to political advertising campaigns orientated solely around getting people to check their registration status and reregister if they need to just screams to me that the US has a huge problem here.

- Insecurity in voting. Loads of examples of electronic voting machines not working correctly and flipping votes in the last few elections, with no action, is just insane. The number of times a US electronic voting system has been discovered to be insecure, to the point where any attacker can trivially access the results and flip them, should on its own force the removal of this sort of system entirely.

- Complexity in voting. Hanging chads, hole punches, electronic voting etc etc etc. Peeps, just get a ballot paper and a pen, make your mark, put it in the box, and count them by hand (several hands, independently, with both party observers and independent observers). What is so hard about that? And no, "buuut America is so big, it would take forever to count the votes" is not an argument because ... well, because America is so big - hire enough people to do the count in one night. Its how we do it in the UK, never had a problem with the system itself.

- Your electoral system is not independent of your political system. Thats kinda the fundamental problem here - and its one which is largely borne out of the fact that your countries political system is so freaking complex. Federal, state, county, city etc can all have their own laws. And they can all control the electoral system (mostly at the State level tho). It's insane. Set up a single, independent electoral body which is responsible for overseeing the entire thing, setting voting districts, counting, running the census etc.

Every time US elections come up, its obvious to any non-American that the US does not have free and fair elections - you pretend that you do, and often times theres not enough corruption to sway the outcome, but in reality the whole US electoral system is corrupt and rotten and what we are seeing in the run up to this Presidential election is just more of the same old same old but somewhat amplified this time because its done by a vile human being who simply doesn't feel the need to do things behind the curtains any more.

But its the system you all seem to love, so things will never improve - the system is set up to benefit those who can game it, so they game it and make it even more worse than what it already is.
 
sierrakilo44
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Re: Nightmare Election Night Scenario - The Red Mirage

Thu Sep 10, 2020 5:13 am

einsteinboricua wrote:

A person wearing a MAGA hat is likely to spew hateful words to those they don't agree with...but have you considered donning a MAGA hat to a gay pride parade, even as a joke?


Remember when Sacha Baron Cohen in fake disguise as Bruno set up a fake MMA cage fight in Arkansas with a crowd of, let’s say stereotypical Arkansas cage fight enthusiasts, and unexpectedly started kissing a male opponent? The cage he was in was the only thing saving him from the avalanche of beer bottles and chairs launched in their direction.

On the other hand I’ve seen conservative Trump supporters like Kaitlyn Bennett go up to gay pride or left wing events and try to troll them, then mostly get laughed at or ignored.

Let me know how that goes. It's encouraged for a Republican to say "I don't agree with Trump"; let me know how it goes if you, as a liberal, say "You know, Black Lives Matter but let's also recognize the good cops in the system" in public.


Joe Biden has basically said those words.
 
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flyingturtle
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Re: Nightmare Election Night Scenario - The Red Mirage

Thu Sep 10, 2020 5:18 am

moo wrote:

Every time US elections come up, its obvious to any non-American that the US does not have free and fair elections - you pretend that you do,


As a Swiss, I just received the ballots for the September 27th referendums. An envelope, containing the ballots, another envelope (which bears no number, no identification of any kind), and a separate, numbered identification card which I have to sign.

Why is there no voting fraud?

Because, in any conceivable case, it would involve corrupt voting officials.

I could even walk up to the polling station and say "Duh, a dog ate my ballot on my way here. Can I have a second set?", and they would check my name against the identification cards, which are collected anyway, no matter if I vote by mail or in person.
Reading accident reports is what calms me down
 
sierrakilo44
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Re: Nightmare Election Night Scenario - The Red Mirage

Thu Sep 10, 2020 5:31 am

flyingclrs727 wrote:
My county is the smallest county in Texas that has a vote anywhere on election day system. For a county with about 365K population we have about 85 polling locations for almost 130 precincts. We had problems in 2016, the first year of the new system, with one precinct where people didn't get the word that that they didn't have to vote at their precinct. A whole bunch of people got in line to vote there after work after 5 pm. Unfortunately due to how late many showed up, it was impossible to get them to other precincts before poll closing time. This meant that precinct had to stay open late to let everyone who showed up before poll closing time to vote. It meant final results on all the races in the county were delayed. .


I’m in Australia. We have approximately one polling station for every 3800 people. Compared to Texas from this article it’s at one polling place for every 7700 people

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/202 ... res-voting

The lower number of polling stations are in disproportionately Black and Latino areas too.

Also in the Australia anyone can early vote for any reason at any polling place weeks before the election. Want to wait until the day? We hold it on a Saturday, so the most people that have the advantage of not working that day can vote. By poll closing time on a Saturday in Australia the polling places are almost deserted, as pretty much everyone has already voted, unlike the US where there seem to be long lines which may dissuade some from staying in line for hours to cast their vote.

As you can see, the vast majority of countries vote either on a weekend or a weekday that is designated as a public holiday:

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Election_day
 
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flyingclrs727
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Re: Nightmare Election Night Scenario - The Red Mirage

Thu Sep 10, 2020 8:47 pm

sierrakilo44 wrote:
flyingclrs727 wrote:
My county is the smallest county in Texas that has a vote anywhere on election day system. For a county with about 365K population we have about 85 polling locations for almost 130 precincts. We had problems in 2016, the first year of the new system, with one precinct where people didn't get the word that that they didn't have to vote at their precinct. A whole bunch of people got in line to vote there after work after 5 pm. Unfortunately due to how late many showed up, it was impossible to get them to other precincts before poll closing time. This meant that precinct had to stay open late to let everyone who showed up before poll closing time to vote. It meant final results on all the races in the county were delayed. .


I’m in Australia. We have approximately one polling station for every 3800 people. Compared to Texas from this article it’s at one polling place for every 7700 people

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/202 ... res-voting

The lower number of polling stations are in disproportionately Black and Latino areas too.

Also in the Australia anyone can early vote for any reason at any polling place weeks before the election. Want to wait until the day? We hold it on a Saturday, so the most people that have the advantage of not working that day can vote. By poll closing time on a Saturday in Australia the polling places are almost deserted, as pretty much everyone has already voted, unlike the US where there seem to be long lines which may dissuade some from staying in line for hours to cast their vote.

As you can see, the vast majority of countries vote either on a weekend or a weekday that is designated as a public holiday:

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Election_day


Actually the smaller precincts in my county have been in Hispanic areas. The Democrats who used to overwhelmingly control my county made sure to divide up Democrat controlled areas into small precincts so they could commit voter fraud more easily without supervision by poll watchers. When legislation reforming elections was passed in the 1980's, each party was allowed to have an election judge in each precinct. All of a sudden voter "turnout" decreased in those Democratic strongholds.

I was an Alternate Judge in a polling location that combined 3 precincts. Out of maybe 750 total registered voters in those precincts less than 100 turned out on election day. Maybe another 50 voted early. It's really boring to spend 12 hours running such polling location.

Meanwhile in heavily Republican areas the precincts have 3,000 or more voters. The judges and clerks are very busy every election day.

In Texas we have 12 consecutive days of in person early voting that includes one weekend. This year Texas will have 19 days of early voting due to COVID-19. I have voted in the busiest early voting location in my county without having to wait in line at all. Each location has a terminal to scan driver's licenses or ID cards and quickly bring up registration information. I was in and out of the busiest early voting location in under 10 minutes.
 
GalaxyFlyer
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Re: Nightmare Election Night Scenario - The Red Mirage

Thu Sep 10, 2020 11:23 pm

I’m from the town meeting region, be there or be square. You don’t want to show up in person, visible to others, you lose your vote. I don’t get various schemes that violate that simple standard.
 
apodino
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Re: Nightmare Election Night Scenario - The Red Mirage

Thu Sep 10, 2020 11:36 pm

One problem that I see for decision desks in addition is that I would imagine the high volume of mail in ballots will make this election difficult to exit poll. Networks tend to use Exit Polling a lot in their decision making, and in fact irresponsible use of Exit Polling in Florida in 2000 is what paved the way for Bush V Gore. (Networks called the state for Gore based on Exit polls while the polls in the panhandle precincts, which are very Red, were still open, and we saw what happened. I also think that because of the ballots used in some precincts in Palm Beach and Broward County at the time, people thought they were voting for Gore and told the pollster this, when they actually voted for Pat Buchanan by mistake.) If only in person exit polls are used, and these skew the way of the GOP and Trump, and then the on site ballots favor the same thing, you could see a lot more premature calls this year, and then we do have Bush v Gore on steroids.
 
TTailedTiger
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Re: Nightmare Election Night Scenario - The Red Mirage

Thu Sep 10, 2020 11:41 pm

GalaxyFlyer wrote:
I’m from the town meeting region, be there or be square. You don’t want to show up in person, visible to others, you lose your vote. I don’t get various schemes that violate that simple standard.


Agreed. There is zero reason for mail-in voting for those who are able-bodied and present in the country on election day. Otherwise I have to assume you are up to no good.
 
petertenthije
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Re: Nightmare Election Night Scenario - The Red Mirage

Fri Sep 11, 2020 5:46 am

TTailedTiger wrote:
Agreed. There is zero reason for mail-in voting for those who are able-bodied and present in the country on election day. Otherwise I have to assume you are up to no good.
One good reason is so you do not have to stay in line for potentially hours on a workday.

And then there is still this little thing called corona. I hope not, but I fully expect that to still be around two months from now.
The first thing to remember is always treat your kite like you treat your woman.
Get inside her five times a day and take her to heaven and back!
Lord Flashheart, 1989
 
TTailedTiger
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Re: Nightmare Election Night Scenario - The Red Mirage

Fri Sep 11, 2020 5:53 am

petertenthije wrote:
TTailedTiger wrote:
Agreed. There is zero reason for mail-in voting for those who are able-bodied and present in the country on election day. Otherwise I have to assume you are up to no good.
One good reason is so you do not have to stay in line for potentially hours on a workday.

And then there is still this little thing called corona. I hope not, but I fully expect that to still be around two months from now.


Voting booths have always been socially distanced. The answer is extended early voting. If masks are so awesome then you shouldn't have any concerns about going to vote. If they work at the grocery store, they will work at the polls. There is no way to guarantee the security of mail ballots. You should want to have as much control of your vote as possible. I can't understand why anyone from either party would be against that unless you are trying to do something underhanded.
 
petertenthije
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Re: Nightmare Election Night Scenario - The Red Mirage

Fri Sep 11, 2020 6:02 am

TTailedTiger wrote:
I can't understand why anyone from either party would be against that unless you are trying to do something underhanded.

I can’t understand why anyone from either party would be against long established voting options unless you are trying to do something underhanded.

Even your boy Trump is on record for having voted by mail. What’s good for him surely must be good for all!
The first thing to remember is always treat your kite like you treat your woman.
Get inside her five times a day and take her to heaven and back!
Lord Flashheart, 1989
 
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Aaron747
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Re: Nightmare Election Night Scenario - The Red Mirage

Fri Sep 11, 2020 6:05 am

TTailedTiger wrote:
petertenthije wrote:
TTailedTiger wrote:
Agreed. There is zero reason for mail-in voting for those who are able-bodied and present in the country on election day. Otherwise I have to assume you are up to no good.
One good reason is so you do not have to stay in line for potentially hours on a workday.

And then there is still this little thing called corona. I hope not, but I fully expect that to still be around two months from now.


There is no way to guarantee the security of mail ballots.


This is a completely unfounded, amateurish take on something already well-studied.

https://www.law.upenn.edu/live/news/103 ... by-mail-is
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TTailedTiger
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Re: Nightmare Election Night Scenario - The Red Mirage

Fri Sep 11, 2020 6:09 am

Aaron747 wrote:
TTailedTiger wrote:
petertenthije wrote:
One good reason is so you do not have to stay in line for potentially hours on a workday.

And then there is still this little thing called corona. I hope not, but I fully expect that to still be around two months from now.


There is no way to guarantee the security of mail ballots.


This is a completely unfounded, amateurish take on something already well-studied.

https://www.law.upenn.edu/live/news/103 ... by-mail-is


No. I posted just yesterday a link with proof of post office employees tampering with ballots. How are you planning on ensuring that doesn't happen with this election. How am I supposed to make sure my ballot was actually counted? Coronavirus is not excuse for any of this. If you are out and about now then you have no reason not to vote in person.
 
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Re: Nightmare Election Night Scenario - The Red Mirage

Fri Sep 11, 2020 6:10 am

TTailedTiger wrote:
There is no way to guarantee the security of mail ballots. You should want to have as much control of your vote as possible. I can't understand why anyone from either party would be against that unless you are trying to do something underhanded.


How is mail-in voting insecure? Would you care to explain?
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Re: Nightmare Election Night Scenario - The Red Mirage

Fri Sep 11, 2020 6:12 am

flyingturtle wrote:
TTailedTiger wrote:
There is no way to guarantee the security of mail ballots. You should want to have as much control of your vote as possible. I can't understand why anyone from either party would be against that unless you are trying to do something underhanded.


How is mail-in voting insecure? Would you care to explain?


Post office employees have been caught dumping or tampering with ballots. They are also not private. Primary ballots have a D or R marked on the envelope. My mail carrier has no business knowing my political affiliation. If they hate Republicans or Democrats they will just throw them out as we have already seen can happen.

Not to mention what happened in 2018 in South Florida with that election commissioner who suddenly found boxes of "lost" ballots. She had pulled similar stunts in the past. I can't imagine what she would try and do with everyone being forced to vote by mail.
Last edited by TTailedTiger on Fri Sep 11, 2020 6:15 am, edited 1 time in total.
 
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Aaron747
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Re: Nightmare Election Night Scenario - The Red Mirage

Fri Sep 11, 2020 6:15 am

TTailedTiger wrote:
flyingturtle wrote:
TTailedTiger wrote:
There is no way to guarantee the security of mail ballots. You should want to have as much control of your vote as possible. I can't understand why anyone from either party would be against that unless you are trying to do something underhanded.


How is mail-in voting insecure? Would you care to explain?


Post office employees have been caught dumping or tampering with ballots. They are also not private. Primary ballots have a D or R marked on the envelope. My mail carrier has no business knowing my political affiliation. If they hate Republicans or Democrats they will just throw them out as we have already seen can happen.


Didn’t read the piece at all - color me surprised.
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TTailedTiger
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Re: Nightmare Election Night Scenario - The Red Mirage

Fri Sep 11, 2020 6:16 am

Aaron747 wrote:
TTailedTiger wrote:
flyingturtle wrote:

How is mail-in voting insecure? Would you care to explain?


Post office employees have been caught dumping or tampering with ballots. They are also not private. Primary ballots have a D or R marked on the envelope. My mail carrier has no business knowing my political affiliation. If they hate Republicans or Democrats they will just throw them out as we have already seen can happen.


Didn’t read the piece at all - color me surprised.


So some fraud is ok with you? We shouldn't work to make it as secure as possible? It's mighty suspicious that only liberals are wanting to force voting by mail.
 
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flyingturtle
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Re: Nightmare Election Night Scenario - The Red Mirage

Fri Sep 11, 2020 6:21 am

TTailedTiger wrote:
Primary ballots have a D or R marked on the envelope.


:rotfl: :rotfl: :rotfl: :rotfl: :rotfl: :rotfl: :rotfl: :rotfl: :rotfl: :rotfl: :rotfl: :rotfl: :rotfl: :rotfl: :rotfl: :rotfl:

This is epic.

"with that election commissioner who suddenly found boxes of "lost" ballots"

Can happen with in-person voting too. Voting officials can decide to have certain ballot boxes transported to $another_location for counting, where they never arrive.

Nearly all of Europe is chuckling about the election insanity over there.
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Aaron747
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Re: Nightmare Election Night Scenario - The Red Mirage

Fri Sep 11, 2020 6:23 am

TTailedTiger wrote:
Aaron747 wrote:
TTailedTiger wrote:

Post office employees have been caught dumping or tampering with ballots. They are also not private. Primary ballots have a D or R marked on the envelope. My mail carrier has no business knowing my political affiliation. If they hate Republicans or Democrats they will just throw them out as we have already seen can happen.


Didn’t read the piece at all - color me surprised.


So some fraud is ok with you? We shouldn't work to make it as secure as possible? It's mighty suspicious that only liberals are wanting to force voting by mail.


Oy vey, this is why education is important. It is literally so rare that’s why specific instances get reported when they do happen.

With regard to mail-in ballots: there were only 372 cases of potential fraud in 2016 and 2018 out of the total 14.6 million ballots cast. That is a rate of only 0.000025%—nearly zero.
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flyingturtle
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Re: Nightmare Election Night Scenario - The Red Mirage

Fri Sep 11, 2020 6:23 am

TTailedTiger wrote:

So some fraud is ok with you? We shouldn't work to make it as secure as possible? It's mighty suspicious that only liberals are wanting to force voting by mail.


Letting DeJoy, a Republican, dismantle perfectly working mail sorting equipment didn't exactly help with the citizen's trust in the whole election process.
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TTailedTiger
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Re: Nightmare Election Night Scenario - The Red Mirage

Fri Sep 11, 2020 6:28 am

flyingturtle wrote:
TTailedTiger wrote:

So some fraud is ok with you? We shouldn't work to make it as secure as possible? It's mighty suspicious that only liberals are wanting to force voting by mail.


Letting DeJoy, a Republican, dismantle perfectly working mail sorting equipment didn't exactly help with the citizen's trust in the whole election process.


Liberals seem to trust Snopes implicitly so here's some cold truth regarding Saint Obama and the dismantling of the post office. And I'm not criticizing Obama for it. Mail has been on the decline for years. It's ridiculous to think we would still need the same amount of infrastructure as we did before the internet.

https://www.snopes.com/fact-check/obama ... mailboxes/


https://www.foxnews.com/politics/postal ... -mailboxes
 
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moo
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Re: Nightmare Election Night Scenario - The Red Mirage

Fri Sep 11, 2020 6:58 am

TTailedTiger wrote:
flyingturtle wrote:
TTailedTiger wrote:

So some fraud is ok with you? We shouldn't work to make it as secure as possible? It's mighty suspicious that only liberals are wanting to force voting by mail.


Letting DeJoy, a Republican, dismantle perfectly working mail sorting equipment didn't exactly help with the citizen's trust in the whole election process.


Liberals seem to trust Snopes implicitly so here's some cold truth regarding Saint Obama and the dismantling of the post office. And I'm not criticizing Obama for it. Mail has been on the decline for years. It's ridiculous to think we would still need the same amount of infrastructure as we did before the internet.

https://www.snopes.com/fact-check/obama ... mailboxes/


https://www.foxnews.com/politics/postal ... -mailboxes


Its amazing that you people dont even read the Snopes articles yourselves - the difference between what happened under Obama with regard to the USPS and what is happening this year is the context. And the context paints the Obama administration in a good light and the Trump administration in a criminally terrible light - current removals are purely political in nature, while previous removals were not.
 
TTailedTiger
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Re: Nightmare Election Night Scenario - The Red Mirage

Fri Sep 11, 2020 7:02 am

moo wrote:
TTailedTiger wrote:
flyingturtle wrote:

Letting DeJoy, a Republican, dismantle perfectly working mail sorting equipment didn't exactly help with the citizen's trust in the whole election process.


Liberals seem to trust Snopes implicitly so here's some cold truth regarding Saint Obama and the dismantling of the post office. And I'm not criticizing Obama for it. Mail has been on the decline for years. It's ridiculous to think we would still need the same amount of infrastructure as we did before the internet.

https://www.snopes.com/fact-check/obama ... mailboxes/


https://www.foxnews.com/politics/postal ... -mailboxes


Its amazing that you people dont even read the Snopes articles yourselves - the difference between what happened under Obama with regard to the USPS and what is happening this year is the context. And the context paints the Obama administration in a good light and the Trump administration in a criminally terrible light - current removals are purely political in nature, while previous removals were not.


Of course you see it that way. The removal of mailboxes never stopped from when the Obama administration started it. If it had come to a halt and then Trump started it up again during the election season then you might have a point. But not even the people MSNBC brought on are pushing your version of events.
 
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moo
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Re: Nightmare Election Night Scenario - The Red Mirage

Fri Sep 11, 2020 7:09 am

TTailedTiger wrote:
moo wrote:
TTailedTiger wrote:

Liberals seem to trust Snopes implicitly so here's some cold truth regarding Saint Obama and the dismantling of the post office. And I'm not criticizing Obama for it. Mail has been on the decline for years. It's ridiculous to think we would still need the same amount of infrastructure as we did before the internet.

https://www.snopes.com/fact-check/obama ... mailboxes/


https://www.foxnews.com/politics/postal ... -mailboxes


Its amazing that you people dont even read the Snopes articles yourselves - the difference between what happened under Obama with regard to the USPS and what is happening this year is the context. And the context paints the Obama administration in a good light and the Trump administration in a criminally terrible light - current removals are purely political in nature, while previous removals were not.


Of course you see it that way. The removal of mailboxes never stopped from when the Obama administration started it. If it had come to a halt and then Trump started it up again during the election season then you might have a point. But not even the people MSNBC brought on are pushing your version of events.


The Obama administration didnt get a stick up its ass about voting by mail in the run up to a huge restructuring of the USPS, didnt appoint a political lackey who owns a firm that competes with the USPS and subsequently quickly dismissed most of the USPS upper management, consolidated power in his own office, started removing infrastructure from sorting centres that still needed it etc etc etc.

The rest of the world isnt blind to what Trump is doing. Only the Republicans seem to be that.
 
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flyingturtle
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Re: Nightmare Election Night Scenario - The Red Mirage

Fri Sep 11, 2020 7:30 am

Aaron747 wrote:
Oy vey, this is why education is important. It is literally so rare that’s why specific instances get reported when they do happen.

With regard to mail-in ballots: there were only 372 cases of potential fraud in 2016 and 2018 out of the total 14.6 million ballots cast. That is a rate of only 0.000025%—nearly zero.


Just mentioning hat voting fraud in Switzerland looks like:

- a guy walks into a nursing home, rounds up some people, and says he's from the voting office and he's here explain mail-in voting
- then he nudges them into putting the desired candidates on the ballots, or he asks for ballots so he can fill them out and post them

The same happens in conservative households, where the husband is used to fill all the paperwork for his wife...

All sorts of voting fraud here require the assistance of either the voter, or somebody from the voting board.

Mail-in ballots are also used by prisoners. They do not lose their right to vote, as it should be in any democracy.

The US are like a guy who keeps on buying broken cars but only blames the car instead of his decisions.
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727LOVER
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Re: Nightmare Election Night Scenario - The Red Mirage

Fri Sep 11, 2020 4:54 pm

What states still don't have early voting?
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NIKV69
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Re: Nightmare Election Night Scenario - The Red Mirage

Fri Sep 11, 2020 8:09 pm

Kent350787 wrote:
This appears to be exactly the sort of scenario that the GoP has envisaged, and why Trump has bene running so hard against mail-in voting fraud, for which there is no wide-scale evidence.

If there were to be civil unrest, it would logically be as a result of the President's words.

Now, who would have expected that /s


We have seen more "civil unrest" which should be called rioting from the other side so a Trump win will probably garner more violence than a Biden win.
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stratosphere
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Re: Nightmare Election Night Scenario - The Red Mirage

Fri Sep 11, 2020 8:21 pm

NIKV69 wrote:
Kent350787 wrote:
This appears to be exactly the sort of scenario that the GoP has envisaged, and why Trump has bene running so hard against mail-in voting fraud, for which there is no wide-scale evidence.

If there were to be civil unrest, it would logically be as a result of the President's words.

Now, who would have expected that /s


We have seen more "civil unrest" which should be called rioting from the other side so a Trump win will probably garner more violence than a Biden win.


I think so too. However, if Trump really does win he will have nothing to lose by dropping the hammer on rioters. Right now he is holding back he knows politically it is a time bomb to get too aggressive but once this is over and decided if Trump comes out on top look for him to get a lot tougher on situations like Portland etc...
 
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seb146
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Re: Nightmare Election Night Scenario - The Red Mirage

Fri Sep 11, 2020 10:18 pm

NIKV69 wrote:
Kent350787 wrote:
This appears to be exactly the sort of scenario that the GoP has envisaged, and why Trump has bene running so hard against mail-in voting fraud, for which there is no wide-scale evidence.

If there were to be civil unrest, it would logically be as a result of the President's words.

Now, who would have expected that /s


We have seen more "civil unrest" which should be called rioting from the other side so a Trump win will probably garner more violence than a Biden win.


I think it will be six of one, half dozen of the other. The biggest different is if Biden wins, the MAGA crew have huge stock piles of guns, so that will be far deadlier than if the emperor wins which would just be a bunch of smashed windows and spray paint.
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apodino
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Re: Nightmare Election Night Scenario - The Red Mirage

Fri Sep 11, 2020 10:47 pm

I received a text message today from someone who puported to check the rolls in Wisconsin and saw that I was removed, and wanted to put me on. I don't know how they got my number but it was from someone working against Trump. They wanted to reregister me. I simply responded that I am now registered in Texas, so my removal from the Wisconsin rolls was appropriate and then blocked the number.

My fear is someone will try to renew my registration in WI using my name, and then impersonate me to vote. I hope I am wrong.
 
NYCVIE
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Re: Nightmare Election Night Scenario - The Red Mirage

Fri Sep 11, 2020 11:15 pm

stratosphere wrote:
NIKV69 wrote:
Kent350787 wrote:
This appears to be exactly the sort of scenario that the GoP has envisaged, and why Trump has bene running so hard against mail-in voting fraud, for which there is no wide-scale evidence.

If there were to be civil unrest, it would logically be as a result of the President's words.

Now, who would have expected that /s


We have seen more "civil unrest" which should be called rioting from the other side so a Trump win will probably garner more violence than a Biden win.


I think so too. However, if Trump really does win he will have nothing to lose by dropping the hammer on rioters. Right now he is holding back he knows politically it is a time bomb to get too aggressive but once this is over and decided if Trump comes out on top look for him to get a lot tougher on situations like Portland etc...


I do believe that if the Red Mirage scenario were to actually happen there would be substantial "rioting", unrest, whatever you want to call it from the Trump side but you are correct that if Trump appears to win on Election Day and/or if he is called as the winner after mail ins are counted I would expect significant unrest from anti-Trumpers.

I disagree, however, that he's holding back knowing it's a time bomb because there is really no political reason to not crack down now if he wanted to given that all the places he's targeting have no prospects of Trump winning there. What we're seeing now is just fear mongering to motivate the Trump base and moderates in suburbs and in the middle of the country to vote to "avoid their town/city from looking like Portland" and should he win I expect that "Law and Order" messaging will quietly go away. If he were to win there would be nothing to gain from being aggressive after the election other than unnecessarily making his job more difficult.
 
TTailedTiger
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Re: Nightmare Election Night Scenario - The Red Mirage

Sat Sep 12, 2020 12:10 am

apodino wrote:
I received a text message today from someone who puported to check the rolls in Wisconsin and saw that I was removed, and wanted to put me on. I don't know how they got my number but it was from someone working against Trump. They wanted to reregister me. I simply responded that I am now registered in Texas, so my removal from the Wisconsin rolls was appropriate and then blocked the number.

My fear is someone will try to renew my registration in WI using my name, and then impersonate me to vote. I hope I am wrong.


Please report the number and name if they gave one. Who knows how many people they are doing this to.
 
Boeing74741R
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Re: Nightmare Election Night Scenario - The Red Mirage

Sat Sep 12, 2020 12:27 pm

TTailedTiger wrote:
If you are out and about now then you have no reason not to vote in person.


If you say so.

Here in the UK, all the main parties canvas people to get an idea of which way they intend to vote and encourage people to register for postal voting. Why do they do this? Because postal voters are more likely to vote.

I am a registered postal voter and I like the idea of being able to cast my vote in the comfort of my own home. I can then post it at my convenience in good time before Election Day, or if I miss the deadline to vote by post I can simply drop it off at my local polling station.

As an outsider, I’m struggling to understand why postal vote fraud is supposedly a big issue in the US but works well elsewhere and you hardly hear of such accusations. Surely any candidate who is trying to shore up their voting base will encourage postal voting, especially for those who they know have said they will vote for them such as registered party members.
 
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Re: Nightmare Election Night Scenario - The Red Mirage

Sat Sep 12, 2020 3:02 pm

Boeing74741R wrote:
As an outsider, I’m struggling to understand why postal vote fraud is supposedly a big issue in the US but works well elsewhere and you hardly hear of such accusations. Surely any candidate who is trying to shore up their voting base will encourage postal voting, especially for those who they know have said they will vote for them such as registered party members.


There is a key difference between liberals and conservatives. Liberals rather hunt knowledge and the truth, while conservatives rather value loyalty.

When it comes to brave three hours in the rain to cast a vote, guess which side will fare better.

The comfort of postal voting is leveling the playing field. That's what conservatives want to prevent.
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EstherLouise
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Re: Nightmare Election Night Scenario - The Red Mirage

Sun Sep 13, 2020 4:36 pm

TTailedTiger wrote:
Primary ballots have a D or R marked on the envelope.


Not here in Wisconsin.

I use absentee voting (like 60% of Wisconsinites) because I don't want to take half a day off (unpaid) from work to vote. Plus, I don't want to stand in the pouring rain or snow standing in line.
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MaverickM11
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Re: Nightmare Election Night Scenario - The Red Mirage

Sun Sep 13, 2020 8:02 pm

Boeing74741R wrote:
TTailedTiger wrote:
If you are out and about now then you have no reason not to vote in person.


If you say so.

Here in the UK, all the main parties canvas people to get an idea of which way they intend to vote and encourage people to register for postal voting. Why do they do this? Because postal voters are more likely to vote.

I am a registered postal voter and I like the idea of being able to cast my vote in the comfort of my own home. I can then post it at my convenience in good time before Election Day, or if I miss the deadline to vote by post I can simply drop it off at my local polling station.

As an outsider, I’m struggling to understand why postal vote fraud is supposedly a big issue in the US but works well elsewhere and you hardly hear of such accusations. Surely any candidate who is trying to shore up their voting base will encourage postal voting, especially for those who they know have said they will vote for them such as registered party members.

It's a big issue because Der Orange Fuhrer decided it was, and the GOP marched in lock step, even though several states vote by mail and the military has for centuries. It was absolutely zero issue until the rats in Trump's brain made some noises and his followers raged on cue, hallucinating endless scenarios that do not happen. Mail in voting of course is still a-o-k for voters over 65 because reasons, like they tend to vote for Trump.

TTailedTiger wrote:
So some fraud is ok with you? We shouldn't work to make it as secure as possible? It's mighty suspicious that only liberals are wanting to force voting by mail.

Image
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GalaxyFlyer
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Re: Nightmare Election Night Scenario - The Red Mirage

Sun Sep 13, 2020 8:22 pm

EstherLouise wrote:
TTailedTiger wrote:
Primary ballots have a D or R marked on the envelope.


Not here in Wisconsin.

I use absentee voting (like 60% of Wisconsinites) because I don't want to take half a day off (unpaid) from work to vote. Plus, I don't want to stand in the pouring rain or snow standing in line.



In other words, I will only vote if it’s painless and convenient otherwise I couldn’t care.
 
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Tugger
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Re: Nightmare Election Night Scenario - The Red Mirage

Sun Sep 13, 2020 8:22 pm

apodino wrote:
My fear is someone will try to renew my registration in WI using my name, and then impersonate me to vote. I hope I am wrong.

Yes, you are wrong.

The idea that this would be done is bordering on ridiculous. The scale of the operation needed to make any impact combined with the high risk of being discovered due the scale required. Individual vote tampering has long been found to be ineffective, ballot box stuffing (wholesale creating fake votes), depressing oppositions voter turnout, are a couple more effective ways as you need volume, not single votes. However due the past occurrances of ballot stuffing (Texas for Johnson etc.) voting systems have now developed good defenses to detect ballot stuffing so that is not done. After every election the agencies tasked with handling the vote do a review to ensure what what done. It is not like no one is looking for fraud or not using fraud detection systems.

Tugg
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