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ArchGuy1
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Prediction Professor Says Joe Biden Will Win Election

Sat Sep 12, 2020 3:06 am

The prediction professor, Allan Lichtman has predicted that Joe Biden will defeat incumbent Trump in the 2020 Presidential Election. Lichtman has correctly predicted every win in any Presidential election since 1984 and uses a key system with 13 keys to predict this. Very amazing that he has so far correctly predicted every election.
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.cbsnew ... ump-biden/
 
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WarRI1
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Re: Prediction Professor Says Joe Biden Will Win Election

Sat Sep 12, 2020 3:16 am

I have to say, I wish his string of successes to continue. You cannot argue with success, I wonder how he does in the stock market?
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Re: Prediction Professor Says Joe Biden Will Win Election

Sat Sep 12, 2020 3:47 am

What does the octopus say?
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Re: Prediction Professor Says Joe Biden Will Win Election

Sat Sep 12, 2020 4:58 am

Francoflier wrote:
What does the octopus say?

Paul The Octopus died in 2010. RIP
 
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stl07
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Re: Prediction Professor Says Joe Biden Will Win Election

Sat Sep 12, 2020 6:08 am

In other news, a Fox News reporter has said that Biden has no chance at winning
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Re: Prediction Professor Says Joe Biden Will Win Election

Sat Sep 12, 2020 9:38 pm

Uh, there are others who have correctly predicted every election who say Trump will be reelected. I wouldn't order the champagne just yet. People who claim to know who will win usually end up making fools of themselves. Like pretty much everyone in 2016. I never make such hold claims. Obama called Hillary the most qualified person to ever run for president... And Trump still won.
 
NIKV69
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Re: Prediction Professor Says Joe Biden Will Win Election

Sat Sep 12, 2020 9:44 pm

The media will keep pounding this propaganda into their minions' minds. Actually it looks like the Dems will snatch defeat from the jaws of victory with another horrible candidate when any decent candidate would have beat Trump.
I am the Googlizer!!!
 
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Re: Prediction Professor Says Joe Biden Will Win Election

Sat Sep 12, 2020 9:54 pm

NIKV69 wrote:
The media will keep pounding this propaganda into their minions' minds. Actually it looks like the Dems will snatch defeat from the jaws of victory with another horrible candidate when any decent candidate would have beat Trump.


Agreed. They had two young veterans with Tulsi and Pete who were likable in my opinion. But they threw them aside for polarizing or tainted candidates like Warren, Sanders, and Biden. Now they are scrambling to hide Biden's past and tell us we are remembering wrong. I had a teacher in high school that would use the phrase "don't piss on my leg and tell me it's raining" when observing students trying to cover up the truth. That's exactly what the media is doing to us.
 
LabQuest
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Re: Prediction Professor Says Joe Biden Will Win Election

Sat Sep 12, 2020 10:08 pm

No need to vote if we've got this in the bag.
 
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Re: Prediction Professor Says Joe Biden Will Win Election

Sat Sep 12, 2020 10:27 pm

LabQuest wrote:
No need to vote if we've got this in the bag.


Turnout is everything, especially in the face of GoP electroal disenfranchisement.
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Re: Prediction Professor Says Joe Biden Will Win Election

Sat Sep 12, 2020 10:34 pm

NIKV69 wrote:
The media will keep pounding this propaganda into their minions' minds. Actually it looks like the Dems will snatch defeat from the jaws of victory with another horrible candidate when any decent candidate would have beat Trump.

Not long ago, you told us that Biden was the Dems’ best chance at beating Trump...
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NIKV69
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Re: Prediction Professor Says Joe Biden Will Win Election

Sat Sep 12, 2020 11:13 pm

OA412 wrote:
NIKV69 wrote:
The media will keep pounding this propaganda into their minions' minds. Actually it looks like the Dems will snatch defeat from the jaws of victory with another horrible candidate when any decent candidate would have beat Trump.

Not long ago, you told us that Biden was the Dems’ best chance at beating Trump...


With the candidates that ran in the Dem primary he was. It's pretty sad actually. The fringe seized control of the Dem party and it's destroying them. Trump had no business winning the presidency and yet they didn't learn second time around. With Trump handing them a chance they went down the racial road and accused everyone that didn't support a black candidate racist. Then when the candidates of color faltered the fringe whacks like Bernie and Warren gained steam. Knowing both of them were unelectable they had no other choice than a career Senator with no achievements other than a pity appointment of VP that is suffering so badly from cognitive disease he can't function without his wife right next to him.

Don't attack me buddy give Pelosi and Schumer a call and tell them to let the moderates of their party get some air time once in a while and stop calling everyone that voted for Trump racist and maybe they will win an election.
I am the Googlizer!!!
 
alfa164
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Re: Prediction Professor Says Joe Biden Will Win Election

Sat Sep 12, 2020 11:48 pm

OA412 wrote:
NIKV69 wrote:
The media will keep pounding this propaganda into their minions' minds. Actually it looks like the Dems will snatch defeat from the jaws of victory with another horrible candidate when any decent candidate would have beat Trump.

Not long ago, you told us that Biden was the Dems’ best chance at beating Trump...


Yep. Consistency is not an attribute when you want to argue for the sake of arguing...
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Aaron747
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Re: Prediction Professor Says Joe Biden Will Win Election

Sun Sep 13, 2020 12:37 am

alfa164 wrote:
OA412 wrote:
NIKV69 wrote:
The media will keep pounding this propaganda into their minions' minds. Actually it looks like the Dems will snatch defeat from the jaws of victory with another horrible candidate when any decent candidate would have beat Trump.

Not long ago, you told us that Biden was the Dems’ best chance at beating Trump...


Yep. Consistency is not an attribute when you want to argue for the sake of arguing...


Nik’s not known for consistency - he was ‘Mr 9/11’ around here for years but was making excuses for a certain kingdom in threads last year. Whatevs.
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NIKV69
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Re: Prediction Professor Says Joe Biden Will Win Election

Sun Sep 13, 2020 12:42 am

alfa164 wrote:
Yep. Consistency is not an attribute when you want to argue for the sake of arguing...


Not sure what you are talking about, I was asked a question and it was answered, correctly I might add. I called Biden from the beginning winning the primary and he would poll best against Trump. Again it's not my fault the Dems trotted out the worst candidates in the primary.

Aaron747 wrote:
Nik’s not known for consistency - he was ‘Mr 9/11’ around here for years but was making excuses for a certain kingdom in threads last year. Whatevs.


Mr. 9/11? Sorry but you are going to have to explain this one. Not sure why you are trying to drag this off topic.
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LittleFokker
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Re: Prediction Professor Says Joe Biden Will Win Election

Sun Sep 13, 2020 1:12 am

TTailedTiger wrote:
NIKV69 wrote:
The media will keep pounding this propaganda into their minions' minds. Actually it looks like the Dems will snatch defeat from the jaws of victory with another horrible candidate when any decent candidate would have beat Trump.


Agreed. They had two young veterans with Tulsi and Pete who were likable in my opinion. But they threw them aside for polarizing or tainted candidates like Warren, Sanders, and Biden. Now they are scrambling to hide Biden's past and tell us we are remembering wrong. I had a teacher in high school that would use the phrase "don't piss on my leg and tell me it's raining" when observing students trying to cover up the truth. That's exactly what the media is doing to us.


I don't think anyone who wouldn't ever legitimately consider voting for a Democrat should say who is and who isn't a good candidate to face Trump. Clean up your house first and we'll decide who we want to face your loonies.
"All human activities are doomed to failure." - Jean Paul Sartre
 
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WarRI1
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Re: Prediction Professor Says Joe Biden Will Win Election

Sun Sep 13, 2020 1:40 am

NIKV69 wrote:
OA412 wrote:
NIKV69 wrote:
The media will keep pounding this propaganda into their minions' minds. Actually it looks like the Dems will snatch defeat from the jaws of victory with another horrible candidate when any decent candidate would have beat Trump.

Not long ago, you told us that Biden was the Dems’ best chance at beating Trump...


With the candidates that ran in the Dem primary he was. It's pretty sad actually. The fringe seized control of the Dem party and it's destroying them. Trump had no business winning the presidency and yet they didn't learn second time around. With Trump handing them a chance they went down the racial road and accused everyone that didn't support a black candidate racist. Then when the candidates of color faltered the fringe whacks like Bernie and Warren gained steam. Knowing both of them were unelectable they had no other choice than a career Senator with no achievements other than a pity appointment of VP that is suffering so badly from cognitive disease he can't function without his wife right next to him.

Don't attack me buddy give Pelosi and Schumer a call and tell them to let the moderates of their party get some air time once in a while and stop calling everyone that voted for Trump racist and maybe they will win an election.



I do not think they are just racist, I tend to think of them as dumb and racist. We lead the world under this man who would be King. In Pandemic Stupidity resulting in death. I think of it as mass killing to win an election. Been done before, but not here.
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NYCVIE
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Re: Prediction Professor Says Joe Biden Will Win Election

Sun Sep 13, 2020 1:42 am

TTailedTiger wrote:
Uh, there are others who have correctly predicted every election who say Trump will be reelected. I wouldn't order the champagne just yet. People who claim to know who will win usually end up making fools of themselves. Like pretty much everyone in 2016. I never make such hold claims. Obama called Hillary the most qualified person to ever run for president... And Trump still won.


Agreed that I don't give these predictions any weight but I'm not sure what the Obama statement has to do with that. She was the most qualified person to run (or at least become a nominee) - that's just a statement, not a declaration of the election outcome.

TTailedTiger wrote:
NIKV69 wrote:
The media will keep pounding this propaganda into their minions' minds. Actually it looks like the Dems will snatch defeat from the jaws of victory with another horrible candidate when any decent candidate would have beat Trump.


Agreed. They had two young veterans with Tulsi and Pete who were likable in my opinion. But they threw them aside for polarizing or tainted candidates like Warren, Sanders, and Biden. Now they are scrambling to hide Biden's past and tell us we are remembering wrong. I had a teacher in high school that would use the phrase "don't piss on my leg and tell me it's raining" when observing students trying to cover up the truth. That's exactly what the media is doing to us.


Tulsi was and is dead in the water due to her stance/ties to Syria. Pete and Biden are not very different in terms of political positions. Military service is also not much of a motivator for Democrats.

People always say anybody but Hillary and now anybody but Biden would beat Trump but the reality is the Dems were always going to be in a bind this election due to a variety of factors but mostly because the party is fractured between Establishment and Progressives, and Dems don't fall in line behind their chosen candidate to the extent that Republicans do. So the Dems put their efforts towards a candidate that they felt could also appeal to Republicans and moderate/center right voters. And here we are.

But to be honest, IMO Biden is Trump's strongest opponent. Biden absolutely has more than a few blunders on his record but Trump doesn't really have anything of substance he can use against Biden that doesn't also reflect negatively on him. You would think that these allegations against Biden of improper conduct and even rape would be useful to an opposing candidate - ask yourself why there's been virtually nothing from the Trump campaign on that.... The only thing Trump really has are the allegations Biden isn't mentally fit and then "Law and Order" which centers on a hypothetical scenario where if Biden were elected there would be mass rioting and anarchy in the country.... which of course none of us can say we've already seen happen. Meanwhile Biden has shown himself to be a much stronger candidate in the Rust Belt and other key swing states than the other Dems in the Primary would have been.
 
NIKV69
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Re: Prediction Professor Says Joe Biden Will Win Election

Sun Sep 13, 2020 1:46 am

LittleFokker wrote:

I don't think anyone who wouldn't ever legitimately consider voting for a Democrat should say who is and who isn't a good candidate to face Trump. Clean up your house first and we'll decide who we want to face your loonies.


Trump is hardly a looney I mean a simple session of research would show you he was a moderate Democrat back in the day. Very socially liberal but fiscally smart. In fact if you put their polices over the years him and Cuomo are the same person but since he beat the Queen in 2016 all of a sudden he is a looney. :sarcastic:

Just a thought Bernie should have never been on that stage but for some reason he is a rock star. Great for the frothing at the mouth fringe but certain death in an general election.
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ltbewr
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Re: Prediction Professor Says Joe Biden Will Win Election

Sun Sep 13, 2020 9:09 am

Over the last 20-30 years, the ability to predict election results has become more volatile and less accurate. The margins of error in polls have become larger. Many won't respond to polls. Polls may be too small of a sample, don't include enough people in rural and suburban areas, many won't answer them truthfully as fear it being used against them. There are too many polls, some with their own political and social agendas, operated by 'liberal' colleges to conservative 'think tanks' that complicate matters. Five Thirty Eight uses logarithms and are composites of a number of polls but even they have been wrong. With bad info in, you get bad info out. Then in the USA, many just don't vote as not interested in politics and governance, feel voting is worthless, see all politicians as crooks and sold out to the special interests. Then you get campaigns that make big mistakes in tactics, parties who choose the wrong candidate, last minute gotchas that polls are too slow to notice. This year the polling could be less predictable from the potential corruption and delays in the results of the elections including the processing of what will be an exponential use of mail voting due to the Coivd-19 Pandemic. Let's face it, the only poll that will count will be the count from the election itself.
 
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DarkSnowyNight
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Re: Prediction Professor Says Joe Biden Will Win Election

Sun Sep 13, 2020 2:20 pm

ltbewr wrote:
Over the last 20-30 years, the ability to predict election results has become more volatile and less accurate. The margins of error in polls have become larger. Many won't respond to polls. Polls may be too small of a sample, don't include enough people in rural and suburban areas, many won't answer them truthfully as fear it being used against them. There are too many polls, some with their own political and social agendas, operated by 'liberal' colleges to conservative 'think tanks' that complicate matters. Five Thirty Eight uses logarithms and are composites of a number of polls but even they have been wrong. With bad info in, you get bad info out. Then in the USA, many just don't vote as not interested in politics and governance, feel voting is worthless, see all politicians as crooks and sold out to the special interests. Then you get campaigns that make big mistakes in tactics, parties who choose the wrong candidate, last minute gotchas that polls are too slow to notice. This year the polling could be less predictable from the potential corruption and delays in the results of the elections including the processing of what will be an exponential use of mail voting due to the Coivd-19 Pandemic. Let's face it, the only poll that will count will be the count from the election itself.



Polling really is not the issue. Margins of error also have not grown substatially in recent times, hovering right about 3%. This is absolutely fine for predictive value.
Even with debates to come, the general voter consensus will not change between now and November.


What does matter is turn out. 45 won with significantly fewer votes than Romney lost with in 2012. What this makes clear is that people simply did not vote. The MAGA crowd does not understand this, nor should anyone expect them to, given the nuance involved. But there were two reasons for the turnout issues in 2016, and neither of those have a chance of becoming an issue this time around.

Still though, I do agree that it is not won yet, and we will need to do everything we can to make sure votes are counted to get this guy out.




NYCVIE wrote:

Tulsi was and is dead in the water due to her stance/ties to Syria. Pete and Biden are not very different in terms of political positions. Military service is also not much of a motivator for Democrats.


Agreed. Tulsi was a terrible candidate and would have gotten walloped. The fact that she could not meet basic minimums for the race, and then later flaking out of her current job in HI show that clearly enough.

NYCVIE wrote:
But to be honest, IMO Biden is Trump's strongest opponent. Biden absolutely has more than a few blunders on his record but Trump doesn't really have anything of substance he can use against Biden that doesn't also reflect negatively on him.


I think so. While I do not see Biden as a strongly democratic candidate in se, I do think he has done very well to out the 45 supporters as being particular vulnerable to wacky conspiracy theories. That obviously has a way of losing independent votes and alienating Suburban Women in particular.

Another thing Biden seems to do well is fundraising. Obviously money will come here from multiple vectors, but I do think he has that better put together than any of the other joker candidates would have, without regard to policy or idealism. That is important too.
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maverick4002
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Re: Prediction Professor Says Joe Biden Will Win Election

Sun Sep 13, 2020 2:52 pm

TTailedTiger wrote:
NIKV69 wrote:
The media will keep pounding this propaganda into their minions' minds. Actually it looks like the Dems will snatch defeat from the jaws of victory with another horrible candidate when any decent candidate would have beat Trump.


Agreed. They had two young veterans with Tulsi and Pete who were likable in my opinion. But they threw them aside for polarizing or tainted candidates like Warren, Sanders, and Biden. Now they are scrambling to hide Biden's past and tell us we are remembering wrong. I had a teacher in high school that would use the phrase "don't piss on my leg and tell me it's raining" when observing students trying to cover up the truth. That's exactly what the media is doing to us.


Are you trolling here? Whilst Biden isnt great at all, Tulsi and Pete were in no way likable. Shit, everyone was saying Tulsi was a Republican / Russian plant. I mean come on
 
GalaxyFlyer
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Re: Prediction Professor Says Joe Biden Will Win Election

Mon Sep 14, 2020 9:51 pm

Still though, I do agree that it is not won yet, and we will need to do everything we can to make sure votes are counted to get this guy out.


Even the dead people, the illegals, the double voters, mail in’s, every one of them. Once counted, sue your brains to clog up the system.
 
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Tugger
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Re: Prediction Professor Says Joe Biden Will Win Election

Mon Sep 14, 2020 10:31 pm

GalaxyFlyer wrote:
Still though, I do agree that it is not won yet, and we will need to do everything we can to make sure votes are counted to get this guy out.


Even the dead people, the illegals, the double voters, mail in’s, every one of them. Once counted, sue your brains to clog up the system.

No, I don't think so. And sincerely hope not. Hasn't happened in the past (to any real degree - what 0.00625% was the last number I've seen?) so no reason it would happen now.

Tugg
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stratosphere
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Re: Prediction Professor Says Joe Biden Will Win Election

Mon Sep 14, 2020 11:00 pm

Tugger wrote:
GalaxyFlyer wrote:
Still though, I do agree that it is not won yet, and we will need to do everything we can to make sure votes are counted to get this guy out.


Even the dead people, the illegals, the double voters, mail in’s, every one of them. Once counted, sue your brains to clog up the system.

No, I don't think so. And sincerely hope not. Hasn't happened in the past (to any real degree - what 0.00625% was the last number I've seen?) so no reason it would happen now.

Tugg


I think there is more voter fraud than is reported but not to the extent Trump is playing it up to be. I have been watching Bidens commercials not that he is asking for my opinion. But I think if he wants to win really needs to play up the heath care commercial. That is the one thing the Republicans and Trump have been a total failure on that most everyone would agree. Biden hammering Trumps economy and jobs are not going to go far most everyone knows both of those things were on a good track before Covid. Biden needs to hammer Trump on Covid which I think was not all his fault but it is a a selling point for Biden which most voters agree with and health care. If he sticks to those two things and hits them hard he can close the gap.
 
stratosphere
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Re: Prediction Professor Says Joe Biden Will Win Election

Tue Sep 15, 2020 12:16 am

ltbewr wrote:
Over the last 20-30 years, the ability to predict election results has become more volatile and less accurate. The margins of error in polls have become larger. Many won't respond to polls. Polls may be too small of a sample, don't include enough people in rural and suburban areas, many won't answer them truthfully as fear it being used against them. There are too many polls, some with their own political and social agendas, operated by 'liberal' colleges to conservative 'think tanks' that complicate matters. Five Thirty Eight uses logarithms and are composites of a number of polls but even they have been wrong. With bad info in, you get bad info out. Then in the USA, many just don't vote as not interested in politics and governance, feel voting is worthless, see all politicians as crooks and sold out to the special interests. Then you get campaigns that make big mistakes in tactics, parties who choose the wrong candidate, last minute gotchas that polls are too slow to notice. This year the polling could be less predictable from the potential corruption and delays in the results of the elections including the processing of what will be an exponential use of mail voting due to the Coivd-19 Pandemic. Let's face it, the only poll that will count will be the count from the election itself.


Well there will be a lot more "silent" Trump voters this go around than before so I would look for polls to be wrong again. It's funny to see MSNBC and CNN trying to show sympathy for the latest cop attacks when they have been full bore on their attacks on the cops. They are changing their tune because it is showing up in polling against Biden. I am not a cop lover but I do think most do a good job but there are a lot of them that abuse the badge they need reforms big time. But we need them too there would be a free for all if we had no police. I think a lot of people who had support for what happened to George Floyd have lost that sympathy now with all the stupid shit going on like getting in white peoples faces trying to have dinner and demanding they raise their fist. Not to mention the breaking windows and destroying businesses of innocent people. People are seeing this and will remember it in Nov they will associate Biden in support of it. The Democrats better start coming out and condemning it and fast and have their fringe groups put a lid on it or I am telling you your worst nightmare of Trump getting reelected will happen.
 
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stl07
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Re: Prediction Professor Says Joe Biden Will Win Election

Tue Sep 15, 2020 12:23 am

NIKV69 wrote:
The media will keep pounding this propaganda into their minions' minds. Actually it looks like the Dems will snatch defeat from the jaws of victory with another horrible candidate when any decent candidate would have beat Trump.

Says the guy that made dozens of posts supporting Biden during the primaries
Instead of typing in "mods", consider using the report function.
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