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GalaxyFlyer
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Re: Possibly of Everything Closing Down Across Northern Hemisphere in Fall 2020

Mon Sep 14, 2020 1:15 pm

Aaron747 wrote:
GalaxyFlyer wrote:
Aaron747 wrote:

People take health seriously in my county. Very few obese people, lots of hiking trails, and farm fresh food in most restaurants. We’re not okay with high rates of infection like some of the morons in SoCal.


Sounds like a Nazi Rest Center—“you vill be the superior race, understand”.


I don't think our scenery looks much like Bavaria. But your envy certainly is obvious from the many threads where you comment on our lovely state. I never talk about NH or ME or wherever you are. It's not my fault your weather is gloomy half the year.

Image


You do know the sun shines around the world, not just on Cali, the Land of Fruits and Nuts, don’t you?

By the way, using the OC’s record on COVID to determine moron status is pretty low blow to my state. Our deaths/100k is FOUR times the OC. We only have Harvard, Boston U., Mass General, Brigham and Women’s and Dana-Farber Hospitals, a poverty rate 79% of Cali and a governor who not only isn’t an embarrassment but has a lifetime in both government and private health care fields. So moronic are we in People’s Democratic Republic of Massachusetts? Don’t answer that we also elected Killer Ted Kennedy, buffoon Markey and that fake Indian Warren.
 
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NWAESC
Posts: 1600
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Re: Possibly of Everything Closing Down Across Northern Hemisphere in Fall 2020

Mon Sep 14, 2020 1:26 pm

casinterest wrote:
The US is in the process of pushing the fall wave of virus. The current weekly counts are higher than the initial wave in March and April. Fatality counts are much lower(Which is good) . I do fear though that the restart of sporting events for kids, and schools is going to fuel a delayed deadly wave for the elderly and susceptible folks. The next few weeks will show how Labor Day and post sports/school startups have affected the numbers.


I live in a college town, and the number of cases has skyrocketed since students returned to campus.
"Nothing ever happens here, " I said. "I just wait."
 
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casinterest
Posts: 11764
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Re: Possibly of Everything Closing Down Across Northern Hemisphere in Fall 2020

Mon Sep 14, 2020 2:12 pm

NWAESC wrote:
casinterest wrote:
The US is in the process of pushing the fall wave of virus. The current weekly counts are higher than the initial wave in March and April. Fatality counts are much lower(Which is good) . I do fear though that the restart of sporting events for kids, and schools is going to fuel a delayed deadly wave for the elderly and susceptible folks. The next few weeks will show how Labor Day and post sports/school startups have affected the numbers.


I live in a college town, and the number of cases has skyrocketed since students returned to campus.


Yeah, so far so good here, but that is because they shut down UNC and sent the kids home to test positive there :)

Duke and NC state are ok so far, but I expect more clusters soon. Lots of folks getting back together for school and sports.
Where ever you go, there you are.
 
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Aaron747
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Re: Possibly of Everything Closing Down Across Northern Hemisphere in Fall 2020

Mon Sep 14, 2020 2:20 pm

GalaxyFlyer wrote:
Aaron747 wrote:
GalaxyFlyer wrote:

Sounds like a Nazi Rest Center—“you vill be the superior race, understand”.


I don't think our scenery looks much like Bavaria. But your envy certainly is obvious from the many threads where you comment on our lovely state. I never talk about NH or ME or wherever you are. It's not my fault your weather is gloomy half the year.

Image


You do know the sun shines around the world, not just on Cali, the Land of Fruits and Nuts, don’t you?

By the way, using the OC’s record on COVID to determine moron status is pretty low blow to my state. Our deaths/100k is FOUR times the OC. We only have Harvard, Boston U., Mass General, Brigham and Women’s and Dana-Farber Hospitals, a poverty rate 79% of Cali and a governor who not only isn’t an embarrassment but has a lifetime in both government and private health care fields. So moronic are we in People’s Democratic Republic of Massachusetts? Don’t answer that we also elected Killer Ted Kennedy, buffoon Markey and that fake Indian Warren.


It’s all relative - within CA the nutty maskholes are mostly in OC and Riverside. To us, they are the idiots because most other counties are doing a far better job.
If you need someone to blame / throw a rock in the air / you'll hit someone guilty
 
GalaxyFlyer
Posts: 6229
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Re: Possibly of Everything Closing Down Across Northern Hemisphere in Fall 2020

Mon Sep 14, 2020 2:47 pm

Aaron747 wrote:
GalaxyFlyer wrote:
Aaron747 wrote:

I don't think our scenery looks much like Bavaria. But your envy certainly is obvious from the many threads where you comment on our lovely state. I never talk about NH or ME or wherever you are. It's not my fault your weather is gloomy half the year.

Image


You do know the sun shines around the world, not just on Cali, the Land of Fruits and Nuts, don’t you?

By the way, using the OC’s record on COVID to determine moron status is pretty low blow to my state. Our deaths/100k is FOUR times the OC. We only have Harvard, Boston U., Mass General, Brigham and Women’s and Dana-Farber Hospitals, a poverty rate 79% of Cali and a governor who not only isn’t an embarrassment but has a lifetime in both government and private health care fields. So moronic are we in People’s Democratic Republic of Massachusetts? Don’t answer that we also elected Killer Ted Kennedy, buffoon Markey and that fake Indian Warren.


It’s all relative - within CA the nutty maskholes are mostly in OC and Riverside. To us, they are the idiots because most other counties are doing a far better job.


Your provincial prejudices are showing—OC is number 38 for cases according to yesterday’s LA Times. Lots of northern counties with much higher rates.

https://www.latimes.com/projects/califo ... -outbreak/
 
Kiwirob
Posts: 13024
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Re: Possibly of Everything Closing Down Across Northern Hemisphere in Fall 2020

Mon Sep 14, 2020 3:33 pm

johns624 wrote:
ArchGuy1 wrote:
Do you think that stay at home orders and lockdowns will return in like November across North America, Europe, the Middle East, and Asia? I do know that for Thanksgiving and Christmas gatherings, large numbers elderly people will be getting together and not just young people. Also, do you think that everything in North America, Europe, the Middle East, and Asia will shut down again come November? Furthermore, if Joe Biden becomes President, do you think he will quarantine and actually cordon off whatever location is the epicenter of the COVID-19 outbreak once he comes to office?
What's your opinion?


ArchGuy doesn’t have opinions he only has questions.
 
Kiwirob
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Re: Possibly of Everything Closing Down Across Northern Hemisphere in Fall 2020

Mon Sep 14, 2020 3:36 pm

TTailedTiger wrote:
bgm wrote:
TTailedTiger wrote:
Or you could take care of yourself and make your own decisions. What a concept. No one can force you to leave your home. Stop ruining life for the rest of us though.


How about people who selfishly don't follow advice on masks/distancing and spread it around stop ruining it for the rest of us who are being careful?

People blame Trump for the poor federal response, and while I agree with that sentiment, I think the bigger issue is certain Americans' individualistic mentality of 'I only care about me' vs for the common good. The maskholes illustrate this beautifully.

Unfortunately, Covid doesn't work on an individual basis. It requires a coordinated response, and this is why the US has spectacularly failed.

Almost 200,000 dead. That's the equivalent to almost 67 days worth of 9/11. Let that sink in.


Oh yeah I can just imagine how Democrats would have responded if Trump had tried to lock everyone in their homes. Get real. A federal government with that much power should be a terrifying thought.

Sweden didn't do anything and they are no worse off than anyone else. You just want something to be mad about.


Where did you read that? Sweden is far worse off than its immediate peers, Norway, Denmark and Finland.
 
Kiwirob
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Re: Possibly of Everything Closing Down Across Northern Hemisphere in Fall 2020

Mon Sep 14, 2020 3:39 pm

ltbewr wrote:
The idea of a 'second wave' or even a 'third wave' with Covid-19 is based on large part on the history of the Spanish Flu pandemic of just over 100 years ago. Look up the history of the pandemic in the USA, initial hot spots may have been from soldiers returning from WW I service in Europe where it started. Some cities like St. Louis had strong public health efforts, had much lower death rates than many other cities like Philadelphia where crowds were allowed and various public health efforts were weak, not enforced, it was very devastating. The Spanish Flu spread wildly and with great devastation in many rural communities throughout the USA as well. https://www.history.com/news/spanish-fl ... resurgence


Where did Spanish flu start? Patient was a US soldier in the US, US soldiers then carried the flu to Europe where is spread, they then brought it back home with them.
 
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Aaron747
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Re: Possibly of Everything Closing Down Across Northern Hemisphere in Fall 2020

Mon Sep 14, 2020 3:51 pm

GalaxyFlyer wrote:
Aaron747 wrote:
GalaxyFlyer wrote:

You do know the sun shines around the world, not just on Cali, the Land of Fruits and Nuts, don’t you?

By the way, using the OC’s record on COVID to determine moron status is pretty low blow to my state. Our deaths/100k is FOUR times the OC. We only have Harvard, Boston U., Mass General, Brigham and Women’s and Dana-Farber Hospitals, a poverty rate 79% of Cali and a governor who not only isn’t an embarrassment but has a lifetime in both government and private health care fields. So moronic are we in People’s Democratic Republic of Massachusetts? Don’t answer that we also elected Killer Ted Kennedy, buffoon Markey and that fake Indian Warren.


It’s all relative - within CA the nutty maskholes are mostly in OC and Riverside. To us, they are the idiots because most other counties are doing a far better job.


Your provincial prejudices are showing—OC is number 38 for cases according to yesterday’s LA Times. Lots of northern counties with much higher rates.

https://www.latimes.com/projects/califo ... -outbreak/


Number of cases is irrelevant given population disparities between CA counties. I use this tracker to see the per capita county comparisons with OC as baseline. The counties with low education are basically doing the worst - Kern, Imperial, Fresno, Riverside, San Berdoo, etc.

https://occovid.com/compare?s=09
If you need someone to blame / throw a rock in the air / you'll hit someone guilty
 
LCDFlight
Posts: 612
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Re: Possibly of Everything Closing Down Across Northern Hemisphere in Fall 2020

Mon Sep 14, 2020 5:55 pm

NIKV69 wrote:
The term "second wave" was pushed by the press as a way to instill fear in the masses. I think we will see a rise in cases but it won't be to the extent of the breakout was. It is quite sickening that people are hoping for this as a way to win an election but we may see schools moved to virtual learning. It was foolish to open them to begin with.


I'll occupy some middle ground here.

In the USA, there was clearly a second wave in July. Not only cases went up - deaths went up by a lot, despite better hospital care.

BUT

Within each geographic area, after a big COVID wave (and this is true worldwide), there has not been a documented second wave AFAIK.

SO

It seems very unlikely (amateur opinion, but done industrial forecasts for years) that a "second" wave will happen, or COULD happen in places like New York or London. This COVID thing is infectious and it gets to people. And after it has reached a population, it's not going to be a novel coronavirus "again." It is only novel 1 time.
 
M564038
Posts: 430
Joined: Sun Jan 03, 2016 11:16 am

Re: Possibly of Everything Closing Down Across Northern Hemisphere in Fall 2020

Mon Sep 14, 2020 6:19 pm

Sweden had 10 times the number of deaths per capita compared to its neighbours(Norway, Denmark, Finland) that had restrictions in place. All those countries had pretty similar restrictions and pretty similar death rate.

That tells you all you need to know about wether those restrictions worked or not.

TTailedTiger wrote:
bgm wrote:
TTailedTiger wrote:
Or you could take care of yourself and make your own decisions. What a concept. No one can force you to leave your home. Stop ruining life for the rest of us though.


How about people who selfishly don't follow advice on masks/distancing and spread it around stop ruining it for the rest of us who are being careful?

People blame Trump for the poor federal response, and while I agree with that sentiment, I think the bigger issue is certain Americans' individualistic mentality of 'I only care about me' vs for the common good. The maskholes illustrate this beautifully.

Unfortunately, Covid doesn't work on an individual basis. It requires a coordinated response, and this is why the US has spectacularly failed.

Almost 200,000 dead. That's the equivalent to almost 67 days worth of 9/11. Let that sink in.


Oh yeah I can just imagine how Democrats would have responded if Trump had tried to lock everyone in their homes. Get real. A federal government with that much power should be a terrifying thought.

Sweden didn't do anything and they are no worse off than anyone else. You just want something to be mad about.
 
stratosphere
Posts: 1866
Joined: Sat Sep 22, 2007 12:45 pm

Re: Possibly of Everything Closing Down Across Northern Hemisphere in Fall 2020

Mon Sep 14, 2020 6:21 pm

ArchGuy1 wrote:
Will everything non essential across the Northern Hemisphere be shutting down again in the fall when COVID-19 will be circulating alongside the seasonal flu at the same time? I also heard that a second wave of COVID-19 is anticipated at the same time. So, does anyone know if this will mean restaurants, tourist attractions, non essential stores, schools, non essential construction work, and other businesses shutting down again across North America, the Middle East, Asia, and Europe in like November?


Well to answer your question in simple terms...No you won't see another lock down there in no political will for it. I am a believer the virus exists I wear my mask when I do go out which is rare I am also high risk. But I also have seen this turn political right out of the gate. The Democrats want nothing better than to see the economy tank so they can run Trump out of office. They are glooming and dooming every chance they get just watch CNN and MSNBC you will see the same doctors saying the sky is falling all day every day. The Democratic mayors and Governors imposed stupid rules for businesses that punished mom and pop and gave a pass to big biz. Trump rallys not ok ...Peaceful protests ok despite mass gatherings at both. Arresting a single person alone on the beach. Trump made this worse no doubt but the Democrats gave him ammunition to call fake news and people can see whats going on. I think I would love to see everyone be a little smart about it. Wear the mask in public gatherings and in closed spaces. Try to keep distance from people. Stop with the big parties for now and we wouldn't have to lock down or the threat of it.. But Covid isn't going away especially before the election. Trump also needs to stop telling people there will be a vaccine before the election too.
 
GalaxyFlyer
Posts: 6229
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Re: Possibly of Everything Closing Down Across Northern Hemisphere in Fall 2020

Mon Sep 14, 2020 6:52 pm

Aaron747 wrote:
GalaxyFlyer wrote:
Aaron747 wrote:

It’s all relative - within CA the nutty maskholes are mostly in OC and Riverside. To us, they are the idiots because most other counties are doing a far better job.


Your provincial prejudices are showing—OC is number 38 for cases according to yesterday’s LA Times. Lots of northern counties with much higher rates.

https://www.latimes.com/projects/califo ... -outbreak/


Number of cases is irrelevant given population disparities between CA counties. I use this tracker to see the per capita county comparisons with OC as baseline. The counties with low education are basically doing the worst - Kern, Imperial, Fresno, Riverside, San Berdoo, etc.

https://occovid.com/compare?s=09


If you read the LA Times, you might have noted it was “cases per 100k population, not total cases. Yes, those counties are victims of Cali’s school dereliction, so it’s own fault.
 
GalaxyFlyer
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Joined: Fri Jan 01, 2016 4:44 am

Re: Possibly of Everything Closing Down Across Northern Hemisphere in Fall 2020

Mon Sep 14, 2020 6:58 pm

M564038 wrote:
Sweden had 10 times the number of deaths per capita compared to its neighbours(Norway, Denmark, Finland) that had restrictions in place. All those countries had pretty similar restrictions and pretty similar death rate.

That tells you all you need to know about wether those restrictions worked or not.

TTailedTiger wrote:
bgm wrote:

How about people who selfishly don't follow advice on masks/distancing and spread it around stop ruining it for the rest of us who are being careful?

People blame Trump for the poor federal response, and while I agree with that sentiment, I think the bigger issue is certain Americans' individualistic mentality of 'I only care about me' vs for the common good. The maskholes illustrate this beautifully.

Unfortunately, Covid doesn't work on an individual basis. It requires a coordinated response, and this is why the US has spectacularly failed.

Almost 200,000 dead. That's the equivalent to almost 67 days worth of 9/11. Let that sink in.


Oh yeah I can just imagine how Democrats would have responded if Trump had tried to lock everyone in their homes. Get real. A federal government with that much power should be a terrifying thought.

Sweden didn't do anything and they are no worse off than anyone else. You just want something to be mad about.


Sweden is a crazy case. Those who say there were no restrictions are countered with the “Swedes complied voluntarily, there were some restrictions“. The people that make that claim, then say “Sweden is ten times worse than their neighbors”. Well, which is it. BTW, we’re far from done with COVID or it’s far from done with us, so the statisticians need to wait for the end before claiming who did better.
 
NIKV69
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Re: Possibly of Everything Closing Down Across Northern Hemisphere in Fall 2020

Mon Sep 14, 2020 7:10 pm

stratosphere wrote:
Well to answer your question in simple terms...No you won't see another lock down there in no political will for it. I am a believer the virus exists I wear my mask when I do go out which is rare I am also high risk. But I also have seen this turn political right out of the gate. The Democrats want nothing better than to see the economy tank so they can run Trump out of office. They are glooming and dooming every chance they get just watch CNN and MSNBC you will see the same doctors saying the sky is falling all day every day. The Democratic mayors and Governors imposed stupid rules for businesses that punished mom and pop and gave a pass to big biz. Trump rallys not ok ...Peaceful protests ok despite mass gatherings at both. Arresting a single person alone on the beach. Trump made this worse no doubt but the Democrats gave him ammunition to call fake news and people can see whats going on. I think I would love to see everyone be a little smart about it. Wear the mask in public gatherings and in closed spaces. Try to keep distance from people. Stop with the big parties for now and we wouldn't have to lock down or the threat of it.. But Covid isn't going away especially before the election. Trump also needs to stop telling people there will be a vaccine before the election too.


:checkmark:
I am the Googlizer!!!
 
MoonC
Posts: 344
Joined: Fri Dec 06, 2013 1:26 am

Re: Possibly of Everything Closing Down Across Northern Hemisphere in Fall 2020

Mon Sep 14, 2020 7:20 pm

I will tell you who is soon starting a second lockdown due to cases exploding...Israel, for 3 weeks.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-54134869
 
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casinterest
Posts: 11764
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Re: Possibly of Everything Closing Down Across Northern Hemisphere in Fall 2020

Mon Sep 14, 2020 7:26 pm

MoonC wrote:
I will tell you who is soon starting a second lockdown due to cases exploding...Israel, for 3 weeks.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-54134869


Yeah, Their second wave has arrived.

Look at France, Spain, Italy, UK. The second waves are real.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

The US one is probably about 2-3 weeks out. Whether a lockdown follows or not will depend on if Trump accepts that his economy will have already shut down.
Where ever you go, there you are.
 
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bgm
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Re: Possibly of Everything Closing Down Across Northern Hemisphere in Fall 2020

Mon Sep 14, 2020 7:41 pm

stratosphere wrote:
I am a believer the virus exists

The fact that you even have to state that is embarrassing in and of itself.

stratosphere wrote:
The Democrats want nothing better than to see the economy tank so they can run Trump out of office.

Hate to break it to you but the economy is going to tank regardless. Saving as many human lives as possible is what the lockdown/restrictions do. Because you know, human life is important. I guess you could say we're 'pro life'. :spin:

stratosphere wrote:
They are glooming and dooming every chance they get just watch CNN and MSNBC you will see the same doctors saying the sky is falling all day every day.

Over 6 million infected, and almost 200,000 are dead and we're not even remotely out of the woods yet. Pray tell, where is the positive aspect I'm missing?

stratosphere wrote:
The Democratic mayors and Governors imposed stupid rules for businesses that punished mom and pop and gave a pass to big biz.

Those 'stupid rules' were there to protect public health, and ya know, save lives and stuff.

stratosphere wrote:
Trump rallys not ok ...Peaceful protests ok despite mass gatherings at both.

Trump rallies: indoors, no masks. Only purpose is to provide emotional support rallies the President needs. He CRAVES these rallies, they're his opiate.

Protests outdoors, masks worn. Protesting against police brutality, ya know because black people keep getting killed by cops and stuff.

That's the difference.

stratosphere wrote:
Trump made this worse no doubt but the Democrats gave him ammunition to call fake news and people can see whats going on.

Trump made it worse. That should be his campaign slogan! And yes, people outside fo the Trump cult can see *exactly* what's going on and hopefully that will be reflected Nov 3.

stratosphere wrote:
Try to keep distance from people. Stop with the big parties for now and we wouldn't have to lock down or the threat of it.. But Covid isn't going away especially before the election. Trump also needs to stop telling people there will be a vaccine before the election too.


:checkmark: On that we completely agree.
 
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aeromoe
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Re: Possibly of Everything Closing Down Across Northern Hemisphere in Fall 2020

Mon Sep 14, 2020 9:26 pm

GalaxyFlyer wrote:
Others travel about like its 1999.


What's the context of your reference? Like the Prince song where 1999 could be the end of the world so people are traveling (partying) like it could be their last time OR like 1999 is just another plain 'ol year with nothing to be specifically concerned about?
Since 60s: AA AC AS BA BD BF BN BR(85) BY B6 CO CZ(16) DG DL EA EI EN FI FL FT F9 HA HP ICX JI JQ J7 KE KL KS LH MC NW OC OO OZ(87) OZ(88) PA PI PN(97) PT QF QQ RM RO RV(99) RV(16) RW SK SM SQ S4 TI TS TW UA UK US UZ VS VX WA WN WS W7 XV YV YX(13) ZZ 9K
 
GalaxyFlyer
Posts: 6229
Joined: Fri Jan 01, 2016 4:44 am

Re: Possibly of Everything Closing Down Across Northern Hemisphere in Fall 2020

Mon Sep 14, 2020 9:43 pm

Just another plain old year referencing the last century Don’t know much about Prince; Beethoven, The Who; maybe, no Prince.
 
M564038
Posts: 430
Joined: Sun Jan 03, 2016 11:16 am

Re: Possibly of Everything Closing Down Across Northern Hemisphere in Fall 2020

Mon Sep 14, 2020 9:59 pm

Which is it? What do you mean?
No one doubt those numbers, not the swedes, not the neighbouring countries.

SARS2-CoV19 was a health-diasaster this spring in sweden because they didn’t impose restrictions or social distancing anyway near the level of their neighbours.
The neighbouring countries all imposed restrictions and social distancing early, and ended up with 1/10 death rate of sweden.

What more do you need?

GalaxyFlyer wrote:
M564038 wrote:
Sweden had 10 times the number of deaths per capita compared to its neighbours(Norway, Denmark, Finland) that had restrictions in place. All those countries had pretty similar restrictions and pretty similar death rate.

That tells you all you need to know about wether those restrictions worked or not.

TTailedTiger wrote:

Oh yeah I can just imagine how Democrats would have responded if Trump had tried to lock everyone in their homes. Get real. A federal government with that much power should be a terrifying thought.

Sweden didn't do anything and they are no worse off than anyone else. You just want something to be mad about.


Sweden is a crazy case. Those who say there were no restrictions are countered with the “Swedes complied voluntarily, there were some restrictions“. The people that make that claim, then say “Sweden is ten times worse than their neighbors”. Well, which is it. BTW, we’re far from done with COVID or it’s far from done with us, so the statisticians need to wait for the end before claiming who did better.
 
GalaxyFlyer
Posts: 6229
Joined: Fri Jan 01, 2016 4:44 am

Re: Possibly of Everything Closing Down Across Northern Hemisphere in Fall 2020

Mon Sep 14, 2020 10:20 pm

M564038 wrote:
Which is it? What do you mean?
No one doubt those numbers, not the swedes, not the neighbouring countries.

SARS2-CoV19 was a health-diasaster this spring in sweden because they didn’t impose restrictions or social distancing anyway near the level of their neighbours.
The neighbouring countries all imposed restrictions and social distancing early, and ended up with 1/10 death rate of sweden.

What more do you need?

GalaxyFlyer wrote:
M564038 wrote:
Sweden had 10 times the number of deaths per capita compared to its neighbours(Norway, Denmark, Finland) that had restrictions in place. All those countries had pretty similar restrictions and pretty similar death rate.

That tells you all you need to know about wether those restrictions worked or not.



Sweden is a crazy case. Those who say there were no restrictions are countered with the “Swedes complied voluntarily, there were some restrictions“. The people that make that claim, then say “Sweden is ten times worse than their neighbors”. Well, which is it. BTW, we’re far from done with COVID or it’s far from done with us, so the statisticians need to wait for the end before claiming who did better.


Read Tommy1808 post #48, this thread.
 
stratosphere
Posts: 1866
Joined: Sat Sep 22, 2007 12:45 pm

Re: Possibly of Everything Closing Down Across Northern Hemisphere in Fall 2020

Mon Sep 14, 2020 11:51 pm

.
 
stratosphere
Posts: 1866
Joined: Sat Sep 22, 2007 12:45 pm

Re: Possibly of Everything Closing Down Across Northern Hemisphere in Fall 2020

Tue Sep 15, 2020 12:00 am

bgm wrote:
stratosphere wrote:
I am a believer the virus exists

The fact that you even have to state that is embarrassing in and of itself.

stratosphere wrote:
The Democrats want nothing better than to see the economy tank so they can run Trump out of office.

Hate to break it to you but the economy is going to tank regardless. Saving as many human lives as possible is what the lockdown/restrictions do. Because you know, human life is important. I guess you could say we're 'pro life'. :spin:

stratosphere wrote:
They are glooming and dooming every chance they get just watch CNN and MSNBC you will see the same doctors saying the sky is falling all day every day.

Over 6 million infected, and almost 200,000 are dead and we're not even remotely out of the woods yet. Pray tell, where is the positive aspect I'm missing?

stratosphere wrote:
The Democratic mayors and Governors imposed stupid rules for businesses that punished mom and pop and gave a pass to big biz.

Those 'stupid rules' were there to protect public health, and ya know, save lives and stuff.

stratosphere wrote:
Trump rallys not ok ...Peaceful protests ok despite mass gatherings at both.

Trump rallies: indoors, no masks. Only purpose is to provide emotional support rallies the President needs. He CRAVES these rallies, they're his opiate.

Protests outdoors, masks worn. Protesting against police brutality, ya know because black people keep getting killed by cops and stuff.

That's the difference.

stratosphere wrote:
Trump made this worse no doubt but the Democrats gave him ammunition to call fake news and people can see whats going on.

Trump made it worse. That should be his campaign slogan! And yes, people outside fo the Trump cult can see *exactly* what's going on and hopefully that will be reflected Nov 3.

stratosphere wrote:
Try to keep distance from people. Stop with the big parties for now and we wouldn't have to lock down or the threat of it.. But Covid isn't going away especially before the election. Trump also needs to stop telling people there will be a vaccine before the election too.


:checkmark: On that we completely agree.


Well protests are not mandatory I agree we need police reform but lets face it blacks kill each other at an insane rate but no one wants to go there. All mass gatherings are a risk per Dr Fauci you can't give a pass on one and not the other. Yes arresting a single person on a beach is a stupid rule it has no logic as does a lot of Democratic pick and choose rules to safety in regards to COVID...Also we had 60 million infected with swine flu under Obama way more than the 6 million with COVID it's just COVID is more deadly so Obama caught a break on that one. Yes Trump craves attention that we can agree on.
 
emperortk
Posts: 80
Joined: Fri Aug 24, 2018 2:01 pm

Re: Possibly of Everything Closing Down Across Northern Hemisphere in Fall 2020

Tue Sep 15, 2020 12:48 am

NIKV69 wrote:
The term "second wave" was pushed by the press as a way to instill fear in the masses. I think we will see a rise in cases but it won't be to the extent of the breakout was. It is quite sickening that people are hoping for this as a way to win an election but we may see schools moved to virtual learning. It was foolish to open them to begin with.


This is complete nonsense. Daily cases are still higher now in the US than they were at their April peak. That makes it pretty hard to argue that we're not currently in a second wave unless you take the position that there is no second wave because the first one never subsided.

Image

LCDFlight wrote:
I'll occupy some middle ground here.

In the USA, there was clearly a second wave in July. Not only cases went up - deaths went up by a lot, despite better hospital care.

BUT

Within each geographic area, after a big COVID wave (and this is true worldwide), there has not been a documented second wave AFAIK.

SO

It seems very unlikely (amateur opinion, but done industrial forecasts for years) that a "second" wave will happen, or COULD happen in places like New York or London. This COVID thing is infectious and it gets to people. And after it has reached a population, it's not going to be a novel coronavirus "again." It is only novel 1 time.


It's possible you are right, but data from sero surveys suggest otherwise. The latest seroprevalence rates are pretty low. Even in NYC it's still around just 20%. Theoretically that means 4 out of 5 people have yet to be exposed in a place as hard hit as New York, which would still leave plenty of room for another spike.

Information on the sero surveys can be found here: https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/commercial-lab-surveys.html
 
StarAC17
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Re: Possibly of Everything Closing Down Across Northern Hemisphere in Fall 2020

Tue Sep 15, 2020 1:42 am

stratosphere wrote:
Well protests are not mandatory I agree we need police reform but lets face it blacks kill each other at an insane rate but no one wants to go there. All mass gatherings are a risk per Dr Fauci you can't give a pass on one and not the other. Yes arresting a single person on a beach is a stupid rule it has no logic as does a lot of Democratic pick and choose rules to safety in regards to COVID...Also we had 60 million infected with swine flu under Obama way more than the 6 million with COVID it's just COVID is more deadly so Obama caught a break on that one. Yes Trump craves attention that we can agree on.


There are probably 60 million covid cases in the US already. There is a good rule of thumb that for every confirmed test there are about 9 other unconfirmed ones. This is not beyond the pale of possibility considering that testing is not random and the amount of tests conducted is no where near enough to determine the actual penetration of the virus.

It's possible you are right, but data from sero surveys suggest otherwise. The latest seroprevalence rates are pretty low. Even in NYC it's still around just 20%. Theoretically that means 4 out of 5 people have yet to be exposed in a place as hard hit as New York, which would still leave plenty of room for another spike.

Information on the sero surveys can be found here: https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-nc ... rveys.html


There is room for another spike and one probably will happen in most places but also consider that other coronavirus exposure might lower the threshold of how far a second wave can go because of cross immunity.
Engineers Rule The World!!!!!
 
LCDFlight
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Re: Possibly of Everything Closing Down Across Northern Hemisphere in Fall 2020

Tue Sep 15, 2020 1:55 am

emperortk wrote:
NIKV69 wrote:
The term "second wave" was pushed by the press as a way to instill fear in the masses. I think we will see a rise in cases but it won't be to the extent of the breakout was. It is quite sickening that people are hoping for this as a way to win an election but we may see schools moved to virtual learning. It was foolish to open them to begin with.


This is complete nonsense. Daily cases are still higher now in the US than they were at their April peak. That makes it pretty hard to argue that we're not currently in a second wave unless you take the position that there is no second wave because the first one never subsided.

Image

LCDFlight wrote:
I'll occupy some middle ground here.

In the USA, there was clearly a second wave in July. Not only cases went up - deaths went up by a lot, despite better hospital care.

BUT

Within each geographic area, after a big COVID wave (and this is true worldwide), there has not been a documented second wave AFAIK.

SO

It seems very unlikely (amateur opinion, but done industrial forecasts for years) that a "second" wave will happen, or COULD happen in places like New York or London. This COVID thing is infectious and it gets to people. And after it has reached a population, it's not going to be a novel coronavirus "again." It is only novel 1 time.


It's possible you are right, but data from sero surveys suggest otherwise. The latest seroprevalence rates are pretty low. Even in NYC it's still around just 20%. Theoretically that means 4 out of 5 people have yet to be exposed in a place as hard hit as New York, which would still leave plenty of room for another spike.

Information on the sero surveys can be found here: https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/commercial-lab-surveys.html


Totally agree with your presentation of facts.

But, I don't think the non-observation of COVID antibodies can really account for the disappearance of COVID from NYC and London (and Italy, Sweden, Detroit...). This contradiction "suggests" the biological testing is not sensitive enough to be accurate.

I think people are giving far too little attention to the natural experiment that is already happening with the NYC poplation, Swedes, Italians. How is it possible that >20% of people got the infection, but somehow the infection became isolated and went away? In each of the major outbreak areas? Nope, the math doesn't support that. IMO. COVID is too infectious for that bizarre coincidence.
 
ArchGuy1
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Re: Possibly of Everything Closing Down Across Northern Hemisphere in Fall 2020

Tue Sep 15, 2020 2:31 am

johns624 wrote:
ArchGuy1 wrote:
Do you think that stay at home orders and lockdowns will return in like November across North America, Europe, the Middle East, and Asia? I do know that for Thanksgiving and Christmas gatherings, large numbers elderly people will be getting together and not just young people. Also, do you think that everything in North America, Europe, the Middle East, and Asia will shut down again come November? Furthermore, if Joe Biden becomes President, do you think he will quarantine and actually cordon off whatever location is the epicenter of the COVID-19 outbreak once he comes to office?
What's your opinion?

I would not be surprised if every non essential businesses is forced to close come November across the Northern Hemisphere.
 
Waterbomber2
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Re: Possibly of Everything Closing Down Across Northern Hemisphere in Fall 2020

Tue Sep 15, 2020 3:06 am

I was able to predict a lockdown 4 weeks ahead in March, I was off by 1 day.
Nobody at my workplace believed me until it was announced, 2 days before it came into effect.

In August I was bang on about local closures of business.

My prediction:
A good part of Europe will be in lockdown in October already. This will be a soft lockdown, with non-essentials closed, but people still allowed to go out for a stroll. Look at blanket school closures as signs of an imminent lock down.
Spain said that they wouldn't lock it down, but they, France and Portugal will probably be the first to go into lockdowns and that could be the week of September 28th.
Last edited by Waterbomber2 on Tue Sep 15, 2020 3:14 am, edited 1 time in total.
 
GalaxyFlyer
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Re: Possibly of Everything Closing Down Across Northern Hemisphere in Fall 2020

Tue Sep 15, 2020 3:14 am

If there’s more cases in the US today than in April, the increased prevalence of testing must be part of the reason. I know two people who surely had COVID in April but weren’t tested.
 
Waterbomber2
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Re: Possibly of Everything Closing Down Across Northern Hemisphere in Fall 2020

Tue Sep 15, 2020 3:32 am

LCDFlight wrote:
emperortk wrote:
NIKV69 wrote:
The term "second wave" was pushed by the press as a way to instill fear in the masses. I think we will see a rise in cases but it won't be to the extent of the breakout was. It is quite sickening that people are hoping for this as a way to win an election but we may see schools moved to virtual learning. It was foolish to open them to begin with.


This is complete nonsense. Daily cases are still higher now in the US than they were at their April peak. That makes it pretty hard to argue that we're not currently in a second wave unless you take the position that there is no second wave because the first one never subsided.

Image

LCDFlight wrote:
I'll occupy some middle ground here.

In the USA, there was clearly a second wave in July. Not only cases went up - deaths went up by a lot, despite better hospital care.

BUT

Within each geographic area, after a big COVID wave (and this is true worldwide), there has not been a documented second wave AFAIK.

SO

It seems very unlikely (amateur opinion, but done industrial forecasts for years) that a "second" wave will happen, or COULD happen in places like New York or London. This COVID thing is infectious and it gets to people. And after it has reached a population, it's not going to be a novel coronavirus "again." It is only novel 1 time.


It's possible you are right, but data from sero surveys suggest otherwise. The latest seroprevalence rates are pretty low. Even in NYC it's still around just 20%. Theoretically that means 4 out of 5 people have yet to be exposed in a place as hard hit as New York, which would still leave plenty of room for another spike.

Information on the sero surveys can be found here: https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/commercial-lab-surveys.html


Totally agree with your presentation of facts.

But, I don't think the non-observation of COVID antibodies can really account for the disappearance of COVID from NYC and London (and Italy, Sweden, Detroit...). This contradiction "suggests" the biological testing is not sensitive enough to be accurate.

I think people are giving far too little attention to the natural experiment that is already happening with the NYC poplation, Swedes, Italians. How is it possible that >20% of people got the infection, but somehow the infection became isolated and went away? In each of the major outbreak areas? Nope, the math doesn't support that. IMO. COVID is too infectious for that bizarre coincidence.


Don't put Sweden in the same basket as NYC and Italy.

NYC and Italy locked themselves down and reduced cases to virtually zero after strong infections events.
The only reason it didn't resurge there or is doing so slower is because people there have taken masks, distancing, hand hygiene and sheltering more seriously after seeing how bad it was.
I've been in Italy a few weeks ago and I can tell you that people are taking it a lot more seriously there than in The Netherlands where people look at you if you're wearing a mask.
Governments are also acting more transparently and decisively.
To enter Sardinia, you now have to show proof of a negative test. Mask-wearing is mandated indoors, in some towns also outdoors.

Sweden is hiding their Covid cases out of humiliation, that's a totally different story.

As for the USA, case numbers started to go down after reporting guidelines had changed. The numbers are being fudged.
This is the Sweden strategy, ie, sweep it under the rug, and it looks like it has virologists on edge.
Germany is also doing it. They take less tests, but pretend that they're testing more, and positivity starts going down.
Last edited by Waterbomber2 on Tue Sep 15, 2020 3:40 am, edited 1 time in total.
 
ArchGuy1
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Re: Possibly of Everything Closing Down Across Northern Hemisphere in Fall 2020

Tue Sep 15, 2020 3:40 am

Waterbomber2 wrote:
I was able to predict a lockdown 4 weeks ahead in March, I was off by 1 day.
Nobody at my workplace believed me until it was announced, 2 days before it came into effect.

In August I was bang on about local closures of business.

My prediction:
A good part of Europe will be in lockdown in October already. This will be a soft lockdown, with non-essentials closed, but people still allowed to go out for a stroll. Look at blanket school closures as signs of an imminent lock down.
Spain said that they wouldn't lock it down, but they, France and Portugal will probably be the first to go into lockdowns and that could be the week of September 28th.

Do you think that a hard lockdown will be in place for Europe by November with police checkpoints enforcing this?
 
Waterbomber2
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Re: Possibly of Everything Closing Down Across Northern Hemisphere in Fall 2020

Tue Sep 15, 2020 3:47 am

ArchGuy1 wrote:
Waterbomber2 wrote:
I was able to predict a lockdown 4 weeks ahead in March, I was off by 1 day.
Nobody at my workplace believed me until it was announced, 2 days before it came into effect.

In August I was bang on about local closures of business.

My prediction:
A good part of Europe will be in lockdown in October already. This will be a soft lockdown, with non-essentials closed, but people still allowed to go out for a stroll. Look at blanket school closures as signs of an imminent lock down.
Spain said that they wouldn't lock it down, but they, France and Portugal will probably be the first to go into lockdowns and that could be the week of September 28th.

Do you think that a hard lockdown will be in place for Europe by November with police checkpoints enforcing this?


In some countries, police will be enforcing it. But again, it will be "soft" so we may for instance see pro sports continue without spectators, with testing of the players.
And yes, in November we'll be in a lockdown, no doubt.
Rightists governments of the Frugal Four may try to keep it open, but Austria and The Netherlands are already in pretty bad shape, while Denmark is also starting to pitch up, so we'll see.
 
ArchGuy1
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Re: Possibly of Everything Closing Down Across Northern Hemisphere in Fall 2020

Tue Sep 15, 2020 3:53 am

Waterbomber2 wrote:
ArchGuy1 wrote:
Waterbomber2 wrote:
I was able to predict a lockdown 4 weeks ahead in March, I was off by 1 day.
Nobody at my workplace believed me until it was announced, 2 days before it came into effect.

In August I was bang on about local closures of business.

My prediction:
A good part of Europe will be in lockdown in October already. This will be a soft lockdown, with non-essentials closed, but people still allowed to go out for a stroll. Look at blanket school closures as signs of an imminent lock down.
Spain said that they wouldn't lock it down, but they, France and Portugal will probably be the first to go into lockdowns and that could be the week of September 28th.

Do you think that a hard lockdown will be in place for Europe by November with police checkpoints enforcing this?


In some countries, police will be enforcing it. But again, it will be "soft" so we may for instance see pro sports continue without spectators, with testing of the players.
And yes, in November we'll be in a lockdown, no doubt.
Rightists governments of the Frugal Four may try to keep it open, but Austria and The Netherlands are already in pretty bad shape, while Denmark is also starting to pitch up, so we'll see.

What countries do you see going into a hard lockdown in November in Europe?
 
Waterbomber2
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Re: Possibly of Everything Closing Down Across Northern Hemisphere in Fall 2020

Tue Sep 15, 2020 4:05 am

ArchGuy1 wrote:
Waterbomber2 wrote:
ArchGuy1 wrote:
Do you think that a hard lockdown will be in place for Europe by November with police checkpoints enforcing this?


In some countries, police will be enforcing it. But again, it will be "soft" so we may for instance see pro sports continue without spectators, with testing of the players.
And yes, in November we'll be in a lockdown, no doubt.
Rightists governments of the Frugal Four may try to keep it open, but Austria and The Netherlands are already in pretty bad shape, while Denmark is also starting to pitch up, so we'll see.

What countries do you see going into a hard lockdown in November in Europe?


I don't see many countries doing that, although they should, as I've been saying in many threads.
If I have to name a country, I would say maybe Italy if it gets bad enough. So far, they've been the most decisive and are taking this seriously since the beginning. Masks are still mandated and they're hesitating about reopening schools, while all the rest have opened schools wide open and mask mandates are not being taken seriously.
I could also see Norway and Finland depending on the severity.
 
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DocLightning
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Re: Possibly of Everything Closing Down Across Northern Hemisphere in Fall 2020

Tue Sep 15, 2020 4:26 am

N757ST wrote:
We keep applying modeling of Covid based upon the flu. Every model before the summer said that covid would go to nothing and there would be a second wave this fall. All those models were wrong. We have no clue what the fall will look like, positive or negative. This virus isn’t the flu, and it doesn’t act like the flu.


I was in the "summer will reduce coronavirus transmission" camp.

My biggest fear is that I was actually right and that all this transmission we saw this summer was the attenuated version. If I'm right, then this winter is going to get ugly
-Doc Lightning-

"The sky calls to us. If we do not destroy ourselves, we will one day venture to the stars."
-Carl Sagan
 
ArchGuy1
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Re: Possibly of Everything Closing Down Across Northern Hemisphere in Fall 2020

Tue Sep 15, 2020 4:37 am

Waterbomber2 wrote:
ArchGuy1 wrote:
Waterbomber2 wrote:

In some countries, police will be enforcing it. But again, it will be "soft" so we may for instance see pro sports continue without spectators, with testing of the players.
And yes, in November we'll be in a lockdown, no doubt.
Rightists governments of the Frugal Four may try to keep it open, but Austria and The Netherlands are already in pretty bad shape, while Denmark is also starting to pitch up, so we'll see.

What countries do you see going into a hard lockdown in November in Europe?


I don't see many countries doing that, although they should, as I've been saying in many threads.
If I have to name a country, I would say maybe Italy if it gets bad enough. So far, they've been the most decisive and are taking this seriously since the beginning. Masks are still mandated and they're hesitating about reopening schools, while all the rest have opened schools wide open and mask mandates are not being taken seriously.
I could also see Norway and Finland depending on the severity.

Will non essential businesses in Asia, the Middle East, and North America also be shut down come November?
 
tommy1808
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Re: Possibly of Everything Closing Down Across Northern Hemisphere in Fall 2020

Tue Sep 15, 2020 4:49 am

bgm wrote:
stratosphere wrote:
The Democrats want nothing better than to see the economy tank so they can run Trump out of office.

Hate to break it to you but the economy is going to tank regardless. Saving as many human lives as possible is what the lockdown/restrictions do. Because you know, human life is important. I guess you could say we're 'pro life'. :spin: .


add to that that the two countries cracking down hard and fast on Corona had by far the best economic outcome compared to everybody else.

best regards
Thomas
Well, there is prophecy in the bible after all: 2 Timothy 3:1-6
 
M564038
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Re: Possibly of Everything Closing Down Across Northern Hemisphere in Fall 2020

Tue Sep 15, 2020 6:37 am

He is wrong.
But what he says is actually partially true about the rest of scandinavia. Restrictions was nowhere near as strict as many other parts of the world. Shops never closed, and restaurants kept open, albeit with restrictions on alcohol. (Nightclubs were closed).
People were very good at adhering to these rules, so they were effective, and all cases that has been since then is tied to breaking these recommondations.


GalaxyFlyer wrote:
M564038 wrote:
Which is it? What do you mean?
No one doubt those numbers, not the swedes, not the neighbouring countries.

SARS2-CoV19 was a health-diasaster this spring in sweden because they didn’t impose restrictions or social distancing anyway near the level of their neighbours.
The neighbouring countries all imposed restrictions and social distancing early, and ended up with 1/10 death rate of sweden.

What more do you need?

GalaxyFlyer wrote:

Sweden is a crazy case. Those who say there were no restrictions are countered with the “Swedes complied voluntarily, there were some restrictions“. The people that make that claim, then say “Sweden is ten times worse than their neighbors”. Well, which is it. BTW, we’re far from done with COVID or it’s far from done with us, so the statisticians need to wait for the end before claiming who did better.


Read Tommy1808 post #48, this thread.
 
Waterbomber2
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Re: Possibly of Everything Closing Down Across Northern Hemisphere in Fall 2020

Tue Sep 15, 2020 7:38 am

ArchGuy1 wrote:
Waterbomber2 wrote:
ArchGuy1 wrote:
What countries do you see going into a hard lockdown in November in Europe?


I don't see many countries doing that, although they should, as I've been saying in many threads.
If I have to name a country, I would say maybe Italy if it gets bad enough. So far, they've been the most decisive and are taking this seriously since the beginning. Masks are still mandated and they're hesitating about reopening schools, while all the rest have opened schools wide open and mask mandates are not being taken seriously.
I could also see Norway and Finland depending on the severity.

Will non essential businesses in Asia, the Middle East, and North America also be shut down come November?


China is not reporting Covid numbers anymore and Japan is reporting numbers divided by 100 if not 1000 and threatening doctors and nurses to keep their mouths shut.
The summer probably brought relief, and doclightning, nobody said otherwise, but some were saying that it would go away completely, not "reduce infections".

So it's simple, if you are industrialised like China, Japan, Germany and the USA, you would want your industries to keep running. So you stop looking for infections, and try to sweep it under the rug hoping that it holds together.

This was easy in the first wave because they started from zero cases. Sweden had record death numbers but no one noticed anything, because dying is wgat old people do. The summer then brought relief.

But the problem is that they all start the cold season from a much higher baseline. 40 some schools had to close in Berlin in August soon after reopening, hundreds were infecred in a slaughterhouse in Germany. Germany is trying to hide it the best they can and putting up a brave face, but the situation must be pretty bad.
Japan's numbers never really went down over the summer, China let's not even talk about it, it's a petry dish of Covid.

Things will get bad everywhere, so lock downs will come down to political decisions and I wouldn't be surprised if some politicians will end up paying for their pro-economy policies with their lives (get killed) as families of deceased seek revenge.

It's going to be a mess in the US. Their numbers are going down magically, Fauci was talking about 40-50. 000 per day when they were at 70-80.000 and rising. Then a week later, poof, magic, 40-50.000 is the new average, without any explanation for the sudden decline. So this is just a number that they agreed upon for PR reasons, not real numbers. Trump doesn't want headlines with 100.000 infections per day, which is what's happening.
Fauci looks pretty upset in the latest interviews. To me that confirms that they're above 100.000 and rising. They're probably testing a lot less, but publishing higher test numbers to make it look good.
Last edited by Waterbomber2 on Tue Sep 15, 2020 7:51 am, edited 1 time in total.
 
tommy1808
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Re: Possibly of Everything Closing Down Across Northern Hemisphere in Fall 2020

Tue Sep 15, 2020 7:50 am

Waterbomber2 wrote:
So you stop looking for infections, and try to sweep it under the rug hoping that it holds together..


i don´t see how we stopped looking for infections by doing over 100 tests for each infection found..... the very low fatality rate would rather seem to imply it works pretty well in finding essentially anyone infected.

Image

best regards
Thomas
Well, there is prophecy in the bible after all: 2 Timothy 3:1-6
 
Waterbomber2
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Re: Possibly of Everything Closing Down Across Northern Hemisphere in Fall 2020

Tue Sep 15, 2020 7:59 am

tommy1808 wrote:
Waterbomber2 wrote:
So you stop looking for infections, and try to sweep it under the rug hoping that it holds together..


i don´t see how we stopped looking for infections by doing over 100 tests for each infection found..... the very low fatality rate would rather seem to imply it works pretty well in finding essentially anyone infected.

Image

best regards
Thomas


Germany can say that they do 100 tests for each infection found. It's not hard to create negative tests out of thin air. That's how they print money these days too, so if they can do it with money, they can do it with tests.

How it works?
For instance, they do 5.000 real tests on people showing symptoms. 1.000 come back positive.
Then you add 45.000 ficticious tests that never happened. Then you advertise how great you are doing.

If they publish real numbers, you're going to see BMW, Mercedes, Volkswagen, Thyssenkrup, Bayer, etc... shut down.
That's why all these industrialised countries never really went into lock down. Siemens' factories didn't even flinch. In the background however, the suffering is the same. Covid doesn't behave differently in Germany than it does in any tiher country with the same parameters.
 
tommy1808
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Re: Possibly of Everything Closing Down Across Northern Hemisphere in Fall 2020

Tue Sep 15, 2020 8:11 am

Waterbomber2 wrote:
Then you add 45.000 ficticious tests that never happened. Then you advertise how great you are doing.


That is about as mental as crazy conspiracies can go.That stuff is done on the local level, and that means 401 public health departments, all working independently of each other, and labs sending invoices to over 100 health insurance companies that all don´t want to pay for phantom testing, none of which can be ordered to fiddle with numbers are all in on that conspiracy. Plus ~2000 hospitals with hundreds of thousands of staff somehow being completely silent. Oh, and the 60k primary physicians also say no peep. All under the thread of up to five years in prison for that kind of stuff no less. Not even the most mental cases of Germany´s corona conspiracy nut-jobs think that is plausible.

best regards
Thomas
Well, there is prophecy in the bible after all: 2 Timothy 3:1-6
 
flipdewaf
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Possibly of Everything Closing Down Across Northern Hemisphere in Fall 2020

Tue Sep 15, 2020 9:18 am

stratosphere wrote:
Well protests are not mandatory I agree we need police reform but lets face it blacks kill each other at an insane rate but no one wants to go there.


I'll Fucking go there!

By 'Blacks' do you mean human beings who happen to have a particular colour of skin? Why would that not be an issue?

Seems to me that the issue isn't the police alone but an inherent racist undertone to the society in which they live of which the police play a significant role in maintaining. The undertone is even noticeable on here...

Fred
Image
 
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lugie
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Re: Possibly of Everything Closing Down Across Northern Hemisphere in Fall 2020

Tue Sep 15, 2020 10:56 am

tommy1808 wrote:
Waterbomber2 wrote:
Then you add 45.000 ficticious tests that never happened. Then you advertise how great you are doing.


That is about as mental as crazy conspiracies can go.That stuff is done on the local level, and that means 401 public health departments, all working independently of each other, and labs sending invoices to over 100 health insurance companies that all don´t want to pay for phantom testing, none of which can be ordered to fiddle with numbers are all in on that conspiracy. Plus ~2000 hospitals with hundreds of thousands of staff somehow being completely silent. Oh, and the 60k primary physicians also say no peep. All under the thread of up to five years in prison for that kind of stuff no less. Not even the most mental cases of Germany´s corona conspiracy nut-jobs think that is plausible.

best regards
Thomas



Agreed, this is an absolutely insane scenario.

I'm no covid denier by any means, I wear my mask and comply with all the rules but this is probably the first time I've come across someone spreading batshit crazy conspiracy theories about corona into the other direction - not denial, but extreme overexaggeration.

I will admit that Germany has made some questionable choices in the last weeks, chiefly the drawdown of free testing capacity for people returning from different countries by road, rail or air, which I consider wrong and possibly very problematic in the future, or the way Bavaria fudged up and lost some 40,000 tests; but to claim that there's a coordinated effort by German federal, regional and local authorities to falsify hundreds of thousands of tests to artificially suppress positive test rates is literally insane.


I generally also doubt that European countries will enter widespread lockdowns again, as governments are a) very wary of economic effects and thus less willing to employ such measures than back in March and b) case fatality rates of the ongoing "second waves" in France and Spain for example seem to point to the fact that even from a human toll perspective lockdowns may not be warranted.
Q400 E175 E190 CRJ7 CRJ9 CRJX MD88 A319 A320 A321 A332 A333 A359 B733 B73G B738 B739 B748 B764 B772 B77W B788 B789
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tommy1808
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Re: Possibly of Everything Closing Down Across Northern Hemisphere in Fall 2020

Tue Sep 15, 2020 12:28 pm

lugie wrote:
chiefly the drawdown of free testing capacity for people returning from different countries by road, rail or air, which I consider wrong and possibly very problematic in the future,


well... i don´t mind that, since it is still required for anyone coming back from a risk area, and essentially the whole planet is a risk area: https://www.rki.de/DE/Content/InfAZ/N/N ... e_neu.html

If you are coming in from Thailand or Taiwan your risk of having a Corona infection is lower than having spend your time here, so i don´t see the benefit in testing them any more than everybody else on the street. And travelers as a whole had the same/slightly lower positive test rates than people in Germany, so focusing on risk areas seem a rather wise resource allocation. Seems pretty data driver after all.

And it still is negative test or two weeks isolation: https://www.bundesgesundheitsministeriu ... llers.html

or the way Bavaria fudged up and lost some 40,000 tests;


Well, i always thought we need a border with Bavaria. Small correction though, they didn´t lose the tests, the results didn´t get to the testet. For what that is worth...

but to claim that there's a coordinated effort by German federal, regional and local authorities to falsify hundreds of thousands of tests to artificially suppress positive test rates is literally insane.


well, it is the virus Bill Gates made in a lab in Wuhan that doesn´t exist... so consistency isn´t really a thing.

I generally also doubt that European countries will enter widespread lockdowns again, as governments are a) very wary of economic effects and thus less willing to employ such measures than back in March and b) case fatality rates of the ongoing "second waves" in France and Spain for example seem to point to the fact that even from a human toll perspective lockdowns may not be warranted.


plus there is a lot more knowledge as to where and how transmissions are likely. So no problem with getting haircuts. .....
Well, there is prophecy in the bible after all: 2 Timothy 3:1-6
 
LCDFlight
Posts: 612
Joined: Wed Jan 01, 2020 9:22 pm

Re: Possibly of Everything Closing Down Across Northern Hemisphere in Fall 2020

Tue Sep 15, 2020 1:27 pm

Waterbomber2 wrote:
LCDFlight wrote:
emperortk wrote:

This is complete nonsense. Daily cases are still higher now in the US than they were at their April peak. That makes it pretty hard to argue that we're not currently in a second wave unless you take the position that there is no second wave because the first one never subsided.

Image



It's possible you are right, but data from sero surveys suggest otherwise. The latest seroprevalence rates are pretty low. Even in NYC it's still around just 20%. Theoretically that means 4 out of 5 people have yet to be exposed in a place as hard hit as New York, which would still leave plenty of room for another spike.

Information on the sero surveys can be found here: https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/commercial-lab-surveys.html


Totally agree with your presentation of facts.

But, I don't think the non-observation of COVID antibodies can really account for the disappearance of COVID from NYC and London (and Italy, Sweden, Detroit...). This contradiction "suggests" the biological testing is not sensitive enough to be accurate.

I think people are giving far too little attention to the natural experiment that is already happening with the NYC poplation, Swedes, Italians. How is it possible that >20% of people got the infection, but somehow the infection became isolated and went away? In each of the major outbreak areas? Nope, the math doesn't support that. IMO. COVID is too infectious for that bizarre coincidence.


Don't put Sweden in the same basket as NYC and Italy.

NYC and Italy locked themselves down and reduced cases to virtually zero after strong infections events.
The only reason it didn't resurge there or is doing so slower is because people there have taken masks, distancing, hand hygiene and sheltering more seriously after seeing how bad it was.
I've been in Italy a few weeks ago and I can tell you that people are taking it a lot more seriously there than in The Netherlands where people look at you if you're wearing a mask.
Governments are also acting more transparently and decisively.
To enter Sardinia, you now have to show proof of a negative test. Mask-wearing is mandated indoors, in some towns also outdoors.

Sweden is hiding their Covid cases out of humiliation, that's a totally different story.

As for the USA, case numbers started to go down after reporting guidelines had changed. The numbers are being fudged.
This is the Sweden strategy, ie, sweep it under the rug, and it looks like it has virologists on edge.
Germany is also doing it. They take less tests, but pretend that they're testing more, and positivity starts going down.


I understand it's necessary to try to say that masks and social distancing cut New York infections from roughly 1,600,000 to near zero, within a matter of weeks.

But I do not think that's the most likely explanation. We know how COVID persistently stays in non-saturated communities. Even in California communities.

There have been multiple natural experiments on this, including in areas without much medical infrastructure. Watch Brazil right now. COVID has run rampant in Brazil. There are tens of millions of people infected.

If the deaths soon go to zero in Brazil... and stay at zero... just as it approaches 80-100 deaths per 100,000 population (like NY, Italy) it probably means something.

Circumstantial evidence suggests effective resistance to COVID occurs at around 100 deaths per 100,000. Sweden stabilized at around 60 deaths per 100,000. But that's a pretty high number of dead, and a vaccine would be better.
 
Waterbomber2
Posts: 1334
Joined: Mon Feb 04, 2019 3:44 am

Re: Possibly of Everything Closing Down Across Northern Hemisphere in Fall 2020

Tue Sep 15, 2020 2:55 pm

tommy1808 wrote:
Waterbomber2 wrote:
Then you add 45.000 ficticious tests that never happened. Then you advertise how great you are doing.


That is about as mental as crazy conspiracies can go.That stuff is done on the local level, and that means 401 public health departments, all working independently of each other, and labs sending invoices to over 100 health insurance companies that all don´t want to pay for phantom testing, none of which can be ordered to fiddle with numbers are all in on that conspiracy. Plus ~2000 hospitals with hundreds of thousands of staff somehow being completely silent. Oh, and the 60k primary physicians also say no peep. All under the thread of up to five years in prison for that kind of stuff no less. Not even the most mental cases of Germany´s corona conspiracy nut-jobs think that is plausible.

best regards
Thomas


It's so insane that nobody would ever believe it, that's why they're doing it.
Explain to me how Germany's numbers result in a graph like this:

Image


While all their neighbors have graphs like these:


Image

Image

Image

Image

Image


Image sources: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country



It's called bull$&@£.

Here's how they do it: they collect the data from all the local authorities, and when they compile it into a national number, they add a bulk of ficticious tests or reduce the actual infection numbers, or both.
 
Waterbomber2
Posts: 1334
Joined: Mon Feb 04, 2019 3:44 am

Re: Possibly of Everything Closing Down Across Northern Hemisphere in Fall 2020

Tue Sep 15, 2020 3:14 pm

There is increasing reporting about this happening in the U.S.:
Reports are surfacing that Trump appointees are fudging the numbers at HHS:


Democratic lawmakers launched an investigation Monday into reports that Trump administration appointees tried to interfere with coronavirus reports from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

A House subcommittee on the pandemic is requesting interviews with officials from the CDC and the Department of Health and Human Services, as well as a slew of documents, citing reports showing aides to President Donald Trump “sought to help him downplay the risks of the coronavirus crisis by attempting to alter, delay, and block critical scientific reports from CDC.”

The probe, led by House Minority Whip Jim Clyburn, D-S.C., comes after Politico reported HHS communications aides pushed to review or change the CDC’s reports on Covid-19.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/09/14/democra ... ports.html




WASHINGTON – A House subcommittee is launching an investigation into whether political appointees have meddled with routine government scientific data to better align with President Donald Trump’s public statements about the coronavirus pandemic, following a report that one such appointee claimed scientists were trying to undermine Trump.

The Democrat-led subcommittee said Monday that it is requesting transcribed interviews with seven officials from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and the Department of Health and Human Services, including communications aide Michael Caputo. Caputo has often publicly pushed back on CDC statements about the coronavirus and said falsely in a Facebook video on Sunday that the CDC has a “resistance unit” against Trump, according to The New York Times. His page has since been made private.

According to a report in Politico, Caputo, along with scientific adviser Paul Alexander, pressured officials to alter the CDC’s Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Reports, a long-running weekly journal that features the latest science-based research and data on infectious diseases. Known as MMWR, the report has long been a sacred government information resource for doctors, scientists and researchers tracking outbreaks.

The officials pressured CDC to change the reports, at times retroactively, to better align them with Trump’s often rosier public statements about the coronavirus, Politico reported.


https://www.clickondetroit.com/news/pol ... -cdc-data/





It makes sense, because the U.S has seen an drastic decline of new cases in the past few weeks with nothing to explain the drastic decline.

Image

Image source: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/
 
StarAC17
Posts: 3855
Joined: Thu Aug 07, 2003 11:54 am

Re: Possibly of Everything Closing Down Across Northern Hemisphere in Fall 2020

Tue Sep 15, 2020 3:25 pm

DocLightning wrote:
N757ST wrote:
We keep applying modeling of Covid based upon the flu. Every model before the summer said that covid would go to nothing and there would be a second wave this fall. All those models were wrong. We have no clue what the fall will look like, positive or negative. This virus isn’t the flu, and it doesn’t act like the flu.


I was in the "summer will reduce coronavirus transmission" camp.

My biggest fear is that I was actually right and that all this transmission we saw this summer was the attenuated version. If I'm right, then this winter is going to get ugly


One counter I have to this is that the states in the US where it spiked are the hottest temperature wise in the United States in the summer months. The summer months are the indoor time for Arizona, Texas, California and Florida as its too hot to really do anything outdoor for a sustained amount of time so they resort to indoor activities which we know is bad news for getting Covid. Being inside propagates respiratory viruses and not cold weather. It will be interesting and perhaps terrifying to see what happens in the winter months. It seems the golden temperature for Covid19 to propagate is about 10-15 degrees Celsius (50-60 Fahrenheit). It doesn't seem to like heat or frigid cold.

The US Northeast didn't see a spike in the summer and neither did Canada where we run outside when its 70 or higher because our winters are frigid. Canada is starting to trend up a bit but it still manageable and being traced very well. As it cools off and we are seeing about 200-300 new cases a day in Ontario (population 14 million). This could be because of more stringent restrictions which have eased since May but I think lot has to do with outdoor and indoor gatherings. Much more indoor now and especially so with schools opening.

As it looks to me the true threat of covid19 is coming to light and while there will be some unlucky people who might die or have complications it seems to be far less deadly for a few reasons. You can counter me because you are the doctor but how I see it is.

Now its infecting mostly the young and healthy and children who it is largely a mild infection.
More people are getting it who might have some cell mediated immunity from other endemic coronaviruses due to recent exposure.
Kids and young people get more colds than elderly people probably because they are more social an active in society. Thus a higher chance of cross immunity
Better treatments which no one in the media talks about.

You write: After 90 days, one person travels to a country like India or Indonesia or Kenya and then could bring it back"
How can they bring it back if the borders are closed?
I think that you need to read through the strategy before criticising it.
Strict border closures and enforcement is a core element of the strategy. Borders only reopen to countries that have also eradicated the virus.


Then borders will be closed for at minimum a decade for most countries probably much longer in your world.

In all of human history we have eradicated 1 virus (3 if you consider SARS and MERS eradicated and that was more luck than anything). Even with mass vaccination, polio, MMR, Typhoid, TB, H1N1, the black plague, yellow fever all remain. They are all manageable though and can be easily dealt with due to mass vaccinations and treatments and as Doc says we might be on the way to vaccination. Why do you think the relatively mild Covid19 (by the standards of the most of the infections listed above) would not fall into the same boat after another year or two. It's not some superbug, its just novel to humans.

Only one country that is composed of two islands in the South Pacific has managed to pull this off and they have the advantage of geography and being first world. You can never pull this off in Asia, Europe or Africa, too many land borders and too many people.
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