StarAC17 wrote:DocLightning wrote:N757ST wrote:We keep applying modeling of Covid based upon the flu. Every model before the summer said that covid would go to nothing and there would be a second wave this fall. All those models were wrong. We have no clue what the fall will look like, positive or negative. This virus isn’t the flu, and it doesn’t act like the flu.
I was in the "summer will reduce coronavirus transmission" camp.
My biggest fear is that I was actually right and that all this transmission we saw this summer was the attenuated version. If I'm right, then this winter is going to get ugly
One counter I have to this is that the states in the US where it spiked are the hottest temperature wise in the United States in the summer months. The summer months are the indoor time for Arizona, Texas, California and Florida as its too hot to really do anything outdoor for a sustained amount of time so they resort to indoor activities which we know is bad news for getting Covid. Being inside propagates respiratory viruses and not cold weather. It will be interesting and perhaps terrifying to see what happens in the winter months. It seems the golden temperature for Covid19 to propagate is about 10-15 degrees Celsius (50-60 Fahrenheit). It doesn't seem to like heat or frigid cold.
That's an excellent point. But I'd amend your statements about ideal temperatures for SARS-CoV-2 transmission and redirect you towards conditions. The ideal condition is an indoor location in which air is trapped and not free to float away and in which recirculation is slow. This is why transmission on airplanes is surprisingly poor; airplanes have very rapid airflow and extensive recirculation. Most buildings, have slower air movement. In the outdoor setting, droplets drift away on the breeze and can be miles away in minutes. That enormous (effectively infinite) volume of dilution leads to much less transmission outdoors.
Either way, I suspect that we will see that there is increased transmission across the Northern Hemisphere as winter sets in and people everywhere spend more time inside.
As it looks to me the true threat of covid19 is coming to light and while there will be some unlucky people who might die or have complications it seems to be far less deadly for a few reasons. You can counter me because you are the doctor but how I see it is.
Now its infecting mostly the young and healthy and children who it is largely a mild infection.
I don't think that there has been a huge shift in the population of people being infected, but rather in the population of people being recognized. While young people are much less likely to require ICU care than their grandparents, the much larger absolute number of young people can lead to a real problem.
More people are getting it who might have some cell mediated immunity from other endemic coronaviruses due to recent exposure. Kids and young people get more colds than elderly people probably because they are more social an active in society. Thus a higher chance of cross immunity
That hypothesis has been bandied about, but I have yet to see some of the basic immunology papers be translated into actual differences in clinical outcome. I'll point that all of us have been exposed to endemic human coronaviruses, which is why they are endemic. I'm not banking on cell-mediated immunity to homologous portions of other coronavirus proteins being our savior.
Better treatments which no one in the media talks about.
Kinda. We're definitely better at keeping people from dying, which is no small thing. But they still wind up in an ICU, they still wind up sick, and the average length of stay has only shortened by a few days. So the virus is still quite capable of overwhelming hospitals. We still don't have the magic pill that I can give someone and keep them out of the hospital.