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DocLightning
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Re: Possibly of Everything Closing Down Across Northern Hemisphere in Fall 2020

Tue Sep 15, 2020 3:53 pm

StarAC17 wrote:
DocLightning wrote:
N757ST wrote:
We keep applying modeling of Covid based upon the flu. Every model before the summer said that covid would go to nothing and there would be a second wave this fall. All those models were wrong. We have no clue what the fall will look like, positive or negative. This virus isn’t the flu, and it doesn’t act like the flu.


I was in the "summer will reduce coronavirus transmission" camp.

My biggest fear is that I was actually right and that all this transmission we saw this summer was the attenuated version. If I'm right, then this winter is going to get ugly


One counter I have to this is that the states in the US where it spiked are the hottest temperature wise in the United States in the summer months. The summer months are the indoor time for Arizona, Texas, California and Florida as its too hot to really do anything outdoor for a sustained amount of time so they resort to indoor activities which we know is bad news for getting Covid. Being inside propagates respiratory viruses and not cold weather. It will be interesting and perhaps terrifying to see what happens in the winter months. It seems the golden temperature for Covid19 to propagate is about 10-15 degrees Celsius (50-60 Fahrenheit). It doesn't seem to like heat or frigid cold.


That's an excellent point. But I'd amend your statements about ideal temperatures for SARS-CoV-2 transmission and redirect you towards conditions. The ideal condition is an indoor location in which air is trapped and not free to float away and in which recirculation is slow. This is why transmission on airplanes is surprisingly poor; airplanes have very rapid airflow and extensive recirculation. Most buildings, have slower air movement. In the outdoor setting, droplets drift away on the breeze and can be miles away in minutes. That enormous (effectively infinite) volume of dilution leads to much less transmission outdoors.

Either way, I suspect that we will see that there is increased transmission across the Northern Hemisphere as winter sets in and people everywhere spend more time inside.


As it looks to me the true threat of covid19 is coming to light and while there will be some unlucky people who might die or have complications it seems to be far less deadly for a few reasons. You can counter me because you are the doctor but how I see it is.

Now its infecting mostly the young and healthy and children who it is largely a mild infection.


I don't think that there has been a huge shift in the population of people being infected, but rather in the population of people being recognized. While young people are much less likely to require ICU care than their grandparents, the much larger absolute number of young people can lead to a real problem.
More people are getting it who might have some cell mediated immunity from other endemic coronaviruses due to recent exposure. Kids and young people get more colds than elderly people probably because they are more social an active in society. Thus a higher chance of cross immunity


That hypothesis has been bandied about, but I have yet to see some of the basic immunology papers be translated into actual differences in clinical outcome. I'll point that all of us have been exposed to endemic human coronaviruses, which is why they are endemic. I'm not banking on cell-mediated immunity to homologous portions of other coronavirus proteins being our savior.

Better treatments which no one in the media talks about.

Kinda. We're definitely better at keeping people from dying, which is no small thing. But they still wind up in an ICU, they still wind up sick, and the average length of stay has only shortened by a few days. So the virus is still quite capable of overwhelming hospitals. We still don't have the magic pill that I can give someone and keep them out of the hospital.
-Doc Lightning-

"The sky calls to us. If we do not destroy ourselves, we will one day venture to the stars."
-Carl Sagan
 
flyguy89
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Re: Possibly of Everything Closing Down Across Northern Hemisphere in Fall 2020

Tue Sep 15, 2020 4:12 pm

Waterbomber2 wrote:
tommy1808 wrote:
Waterbomber2 wrote:
Then you add 45.000 ficticious tests that never happened. Then you advertise how great you are doing.


That is about as mental as crazy conspiracies can go.That stuff is done on the local level, and that means 401 public health departments, all working independently of each other, and labs sending invoices to over 100 health insurance companies that all don´t want to pay for phantom testing, none of which can be ordered to fiddle with numbers are all in on that conspiracy. Plus ~2000 hospitals with hundreds of thousands of staff somehow being completely silent. Oh, and the 60k primary physicians also say no peep. All under the thread of up to five years in prison for that kind of stuff no less. Not even the most mental cases of Germany´s corona conspiracy nut-jobs think that is plausible.

best regards
Thomas


It's so insane that nobody would ever believe it, that's why they're doing it.

And you can prove that how?

Waterbomber2 wrote:
Explain to me how Germany's numbers result in a graph like this:

Literally any number of reasonable explanations. The Western world is not China. Beyond just testing, there would be multiple other indicators in deaths and hospital capacity that would also have to be covered up. The Western world isn't China. They couldn't keep a lid on such information even if they wanted to.
 
Waterbomber2
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Re: Possibly of Everything Closing Down Across Northern Hemisphere in Fall 2020

Tue Sep 15, 2020 4:34 pm

flyguy89 wrote:
Waterbomber2 wrote:
tommy1808 wrote:

That is about as mental as crazy conspiracies can go.That stuff is done on the local level, and that means 401 public health departments, all working independently of each other, and labs sending invoices to over 100 health insurance companies that all don´t want to pay for phantom testing, none of which can be ordered to fiddle with numbers are all in on that conspiracy. Plus ~2000 hospitals with hundreds of thousands of staff somehow being completely silent. Oh, and the 60k primary physicians also say no peep. All under the thread of up to five years in prison for that kind of stuff no less. Not even the most mental cases of Germany´s corona conspiracy nut-jobs think that is plausible.

best regards
Thomas


It's so insane that nobody would ever believe it, that's why they're doing it.

And you can prove that how?

Waterbomber2 wrote:
Explain to me how Germany's numbers result in a graph like this:

Literally any number of reasonable explanations. The Western world is not China. Beyond just testing, there would be multiple other indicators in deaths and hospital capacity that would also have to be covered up. The Western world isn't China. They couldn't keep a lid on such information even if they wanted to.


I don't even answer this kind of naive propaganda.

Facts speak for themselves, Germany is manipulating Covid numbers, that's the only explanation for the divergence in new Covid cases.
Let's see one of your "reasonable explanations" other than credibility-based arguments.

Let's post the graphs again so that everyone can take a good look and judge for themselves:

Neighbors of Germany:

Image

Image

Image

Image

Image


Germany:

Image


Blatant lies.
 
ArchGuy1
Topic Author
Posts: 1557
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Re: Possibly of Everything Closing Down Across Northern Hemisphere in Fall 2020

Tue Sep 15, 2020 4:41 pm

DocLightning wrote:
StarAC17 wrote:
DocLightning wrote:

I was in the "summer will reduce coronavirus transmission" camp.

My biggest fear is that I was actually right and that all this transmission we saw this summer was the attenuated version. If I'm right, then this winter is going to get ugly


One counter I have to this is that the states in the US where it spiked are the hottest temperature wise in the United States in the summer months. The summer months are the indoor time for Arizona, Texas, California and Florida as its too hot to really do anything outdoor for a sustained amount of time so they resort to indoor activities which we know is bad news for getting Covid. Being inside propagates respiratory viruses and not cold weather. It will be interesting and perhaps terrifying to see what happens in the winter months. It seems the golden temperature for Covid19 to propagate is about 10-15 degrees Celsius (50-60 Fahrenheit). It doesn't seem to like heat or frigid cold.


That's an excellent point. But I'd amend your statements about ideal temperatures for SARS-CoV-2 transmission and redirect you towards conditions. The ideal condition is an indoor location in which air is trapped and not free to float away and in which recirculation is slow. This is why transmission on airplanes is surprisingly poor; airplanes have very rapid airflow and extensive recirculation. Most buildings, have slower air movement. In the outdoor setting, droplets drift away on the breeze and can be miles away in minutes. That enormous (effectively infinite) volume of dilution leads to much less transmission outdoors.

Either way, I suspect that we will see that there is increased transmission across the Northern Hemisphere as winter sets in and people everywhere spend more time inside.


As it looks to me the true threat of covid19 is coming to light and while there will be some unlucky people who might die or have complications it seems to be far less deadly for a few reasons. You can counter me because you are the doctor but how I see it is.

Now its infecting mostly the young and healthy and children who it is largely a mild infection.


I don't think that there has been a huge shift in the population of people being infected, but rather in the population of people being recognized. While young people are much less likely to require ICU care than their grandparents, the much larger absolute number of young people can lead to a real problem.
More people are getting it who might have some cell mediated immunity from other endemic coronaviruses due to recent exposure. Kids and young people get more colds than elderly people probably because they are more social an active in society. Thus a higher chance of cross immunity


That hypothesis has been bandied about, but I have yet to see some of the basic immunology papers be translated into actual differences in clinical outcome. I'll point that all of us have been exposed to endemic human coronaviruses, which is why they are endemic. I'm not banking on cell-mediated immunity to homologous portions of other coronavirus proteins being our savior.

Better treatments which no one in the media talks about.

Kinda. We're definitely better at keeping people from dying, which is no small thing. But they still wind up in an ICU, they still wind up sick, and the average length of stay has only shortened by a few days. So the virus is still quite capable of overwhelming hospitals. We still don't have the magic pill that I can give someone and keep them out of the hospital.

Do you personally think that all non essential businesses in places across North America, Europe, the Middle East, and Asia will be shut down come November?
 
tommy1808
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Re: Possibly of Everything Closing Down Across Northern Hemisphere in Fall 2020

Tue Sep 15, 2020 5:10 pm

Waterbomber2 wrote:
that's the only explanation for the divergence in new Covid cases.
Let's see one of your "reasonable explanations" other than credibility-based arguments.


Now that is funny, considering that to arrive at the conclusion this is the *only* possible explanation you must have considered all other possible explanations. Hence it should be easy as pie for you to list all those possibilities and why you'd dismissed them.
This would also include a coherent idea how such a systematic fiddling with the data can be done given the highly decentralized nature of the reporting, tracking and testing system. How do they control that the sum total of reported outbreaks in the media doesn't exceed the total daily case number? How do they make sure that numbers produced by KITs risklayer project are in line with he official data, where the official number is just the first of crosschecked sources.....

How did you build into your model that Germany's main vacation time (= school holidays) is spread out more than in your comparison countries? How did you quantify that? And where did you even find data about who traveled where this summer?

Best regards
Thomas
Well, there is prophecy in the bible after all: 2 Timothy 3:1-6
 
Waterbomber2
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Re: Possibly of Everything Closing Down Across Northern Hemisphere in Fall 2020

Tue Sep 15, 2020 10:39 pm

tommy1808 wrote:
Waterbomber2 wrote:
that's the only explanation for the divergence in new Covid cases.
Let's see one of your "reasonable explanations" other than credibility-based arguments.


Now that is funny, considering that to arrive at the conclusion this is the *only* possible explanation you must have considered all other possible explanations. Hence it should be easy as pie for you to list all those possibilities and why you'd dismissed them.
This would also include a coherent idea how such a systematic fiddling with the data can be done given the highly decentralized nature of the reporting, tracking and testing system. How do they control that the sum total of reported outbreaks in the media doesn't exceed the total daily case number? How do they make sure that numbers produced by KITs risklayer project are in line with he official data, where the official number is just the first of crosschecked sources.....

How did you build into your model that Germany's main vacation time (= school holidays) is spread out more than in your comparison countries? How did you quantify that? And where did you even find data about who traveled where this summer?

Best regards
Thomas


Let's take it to another thread, this has little to do with the thread.
 
StarAC17
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Re: Possibly of Everything Closing Down Across Northern Hemisphere in Fall 2020

Wed Sep 16, 2020 2:37 pm

That hypothesis has been bandied about, but I have yet to see some of the basic immunology papers be translated into actual differences in clinical outcome. I'll point that all of us have been exposed to endemic human coronaviruses, which is why they are endemic. I'm not banking on cell-mediated immunity to homologous portions of other coronavirus proteins being our savior.


This is an article from National Institute of Health regarding T-cell recognition of SARS-Cov2 and an interview on CNN that tries to explain the variance of symptoms among people infected. My hypothesis on this is you would have to have a recent coronavirus cold infection to have any degree of protection from SARS-Cov2 probably within the last 2 years or so to have a more active level of immunity to an endemic coronavirus.

I concede that you are the expert on this but can explain the variance of severity from one person to another among tons of other factors. This is not a saviour to ending the pandemic but having this knowledge has to be constructive.

https://www.nih.gov/news-events/nih-res ... sars-cov-2

https://www.cnn.com/videos/health/2020/ ... sh-sot.cnn
Engineers Rule The World!!!!!
 
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seb146
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Re: Possibly of Everything Closing Down Across Northern Hemisphere in Fall 2020

Wed Sep 16, 2020 5:38 pm

Can someone explain why I am the bad guy because I want to wear a mask for me while these other people think they are heroes and are running around demanding we take off our masks because we have to liberate ourselves or whatever? Why do these loud people think they are right? What gives these loud people the right to demand we all live the way they want?
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bhill
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Re: Possibly of Everything Closing Down Across Northern Hemisphere in Fall 2020

Wed Sep 16, 2020 5:56 pm

Just ask the folks in the Southern Hemisphere. I have heard a report that their flu season this year was very light historically. The thinking is that the use of COVID precautions such as mask usage and hand washing is having an effect on the spread of flu....well whoda think?
Carpe Pices
 
flyguy89
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Re: Possibly of Everything Closing Down Across Northern Hemisphere in Fall 2020

Wed Sep 16, 2020 6:12 pm

seb146 wrote:
Can someone explain why I am the bad guy because I want to wear a mask for me while these other people think they are heroes and are running around demanding we take off our masks because we have to liberate ourselves or whatever? Why do these loud people think they are right? What gives these loud people the right to demand we all live the way they want?

IDK honestly people have been very good about mask-wearing where I live whenever I've gone out or traveled, and I don't live in a particularly liberal bastion by any means. The sense I get is while some may grouse about it privately and on social and such, almost everyone is complying. The anti-mask protests are always pretty small as well.
 
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CitizenJustin
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Re: Possibly of Everything Closing Down Across Northern Hemisphere in Fall 2020

Wed Sep 16, 2020 7:59 pm

bgm wrote:
TTailedTiger wrote:
Or you could take care of yourself and make your own decisions. What a concept. No one can force you to leave your home. Stop ruining life for the rest of us though.


How about people who selfishly don't follow advice on masks/distancing and spread it around stop ruining it for the rest of us who are being careful?

People blame Trump for the poor federal response, and while I agree with that sentiment, I think the bigger issue is certain Americans' individualistic mentality of 'I only care about me' vs for the common good. The maskholes illustrate this beautifully.

Unfortunately, Covid doesn't work on an individual basis. It requires a coordinated response, and this is why the US has spectacularly failed.

Almost 200,000 dead. That's the equivalent to almost 67 days worth of 9/11. Let that sink in.



Nothing, even a pandemic, is enough to convince Trump voters to start thinking like adults. We’re in this position now because of their refusal to follow advice. We could have had this thing beat months ago, but nope.
 
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CitizenJustin
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Re: Possibly of Everything Closing Down Across Northern Hemisphere in Fall 2020

Wed Sep 16, 2020 8:07 pm

TTailedTiger wrote:
Aaron747 wrote:
TTailedTiger wrote:

That's odd. I have seen nothing like that in Florida and we are far less civilized than California (or at least that's what Californians tell us). At my gym some wear masks and some of us don't. No one has made any arguments about it. I haven't seen arguments about masks anywhere else I go to either.


People take health seriously in my county. Very few obese people, lots of hiking trails, and farm fresh food in most restaurants. We’re not okay with high rates of infection like some of the morons in SoCal.


I'm not ok with street crime. So I stay away from areas that are known for it. But maybe I'd be open to your idea of locking up those who MIGHT be perpetuating it. Wouldn't that be the best way to get it under control?


No. The US has the largest incarcerated population on earth. Over 2 million inmates at any given time. The US is also the most violent developed nation in the world. Clearly just locking people up does not work. Many states still use capital punishment, yet people still kill each other all the time. While a criminal in Europe will become a productive member of society in 10 years, we have the highest recidivism rate. Clearly the problem is far more complex than just locking people up.
 
TTailedTiger
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Re: Possibly of Everything Closing Down Across Northern Hemisphere in Fall 2020

Wed Sep 16, 2020 8:18 pm

CitizenJustin wrote:
bgm wrote:
TTailedTiger wrote:
Or you could take care of yourself and make your own decisions. What a concept. No one can force you to leave your home. Stop ruining life for the rest of us though.


How about people who selfishly don't follow advice on masks/distancing and spread it around stop ruining it for the rest of us who are being careful?

People blame Trump for the poor federal response, and while I agree with that sentiment, I think the bigger issue is certain Americans' individualistic mentality of 'I only care about me' vs for the common good. The maskholes illustrate this beautifully.

Unfortunately, Covid doesn't work on an individual basis. It requires a coordinated response, and this is why the US has spectacularly failed.

Almost 200,000 dead. That's the equivalent to almost 67 days worth of 9/11. Let that sink in.



Nothing, even a pandemic, is enough to convince Trump voters to start thinking like adults. We’re in this position now because of their refusal to follow advice. We could have had this thing beat months ago, but nope.


Then why are Australia and other countries still struggling to control it?
 
olle
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Re: Possibly of Everything Closing Down Across Northern Hemisphere in Fall 2020

Wed Sep 16, 2020 8:26 pm

stl07 wrote:
FGITD wrote:
TTailedTiger wrote:

Oh yeah I can just imagine how Democrats would have responded if Trump had tried to lock everyone in their homes. Get real. A federal government with that much power should be a terrifying thought.

Sweden didn't do anything and they are no worse off than anyone else. You just want something to be mad about.


Funny. I live in a democratic state with a Republican Governor, who locked us down. Now we are among the better states in terms of spread. Admittedly many deaths, but we were also home to one of, if not the very first superspreader event in the US.

Sweden also has the population of New York City, spread throughout an area a little bigger than California. Whole lot easier to distance

That Sweden thing is a total lie that was fact-checked by most news sources except for you know who. Compare their deaths to NORWAY, not the US as NORWAY has a very similar demographic but they shut down


Actually most death happened in Stockholm, the rest of the country has similar numbers as Denmark and Norway.

In Stockholm a major part of the death was homes for older people where people sick from holidays Austria during the worse week there went visit their old ones. The rest of Sweden went holiday the weeks after and never got the same effect. The other group was immigrants living squeezed driving the tourists in their taxis.

Malmö for example for long time had lover infection rates then Copenhagen 30 min away.

Oslo, Fredrikstad has higher infection rates then Värmland and Karlstad but in Norwegian news it is a lot of talk about the danger visit Sweden not visit Oslo.

In Sweden special now when Sweden has lower or similar infection rate then Norway and Denmark we feel that Norway and Denmark is doing more politics then handling a pandemic.
 
M564038
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Re: Possibly of Everything Closing Down Across Northern Hemisphere in Fall 2020

Wed Sep 16, 2020 8:33 pm

Sweden now has Stricter regulations than Norway, and thus at the moment has a lower number of new cases, with a contributing factor being that you are testing half as many per capita, also hiding the real case numbers.
And THAT my friend, is politics. Trumpian politics no less. The swedish handling of this Pandemic has been a complete disaster.

I do not think Sweden is in a position to say that other countries effort is «politics» when those other countries had 10% of your deaths per capita.
The component of old people’s homes being infected was real for us as well.
Every Swedish county had a higher infection rate than Norway, that is why we took the unprecedented step of closing the border.
I sense the swedes are insulted by this, but you had 10 t i m e s the number of deaths. 10 times! You do not seem to grasp this.


olle wrote:
stl07 wrote:
FGITD wrote:

Funny. I live in a democratic state with a Republican Governor, who locked us down. Now we are among the better states in terms of spread. Admittedly many deaths, but we were also home to one of, if not the very first superspreader event in the US.

Sweden also has the population of New York City, spread throughout an area a little bigger than California. Whole lot easier to distance

That Sweden thing is a total lie that was fact-checked by most news sources except for you know who. Compare their deaths to NORWAY, not the US as NORWAY has a very similar demographic but they shut down


Actually most death happened in Stockholm, the rest of the country has similar numbers as Denmark and Norway.

In Stockholm a major part of the death was homes for older people where people sick from holidays Austria during the worse week there went visit their old ones. The rest of Sweden went holiday the weeks after and never got the same effect. The other group was immigrants living squeezed driving the tourists in their taxis.

Malmö for example for long time had lover infection rates then Copenhagen 30 min away.

Oslo, Fredrikstad has higher infection rates then Värmland and Karlstad but in Norwegian news it is a lot of talk about the danger visit Sweden not visit Oslo.

In Sweden special now when Sweden has lower or similar infection rate then Norway and Denmark we feel that Norway and Denmark is doing more politics then handling a pandemic.
Last edited by M564038 on Wed Sep 16, 2020 8:38 pm, edited 2 times in total.
 
GalaxyFlyer
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Re: Possibly of Everything Closing Down Across Northern Hemisphere in Fall 2020

Wed Sep 16, 2020 8:35 pm

COVID numbers are much more supple than just using national stats. Even hard hit areas are separated from lightly hit areas by a few miles in some case. My county has bad stats in the city and out here very few cases, none even remotely fatal. One town had a middle aged cop die and very few other cases.

Blaming any group of voters is pretty tendentious—anyone watch Pelosi get her hair done? There’s loads of hypocrites across the political spectrum.
 
VSMUT
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Re: Possibly of Everything Closing Down Across Northern Hemisphere in Fall 2020

Wed Sep 16, 2020 8:54 pm

olle wrote:
Malmö for example for long time had lover infection rates then Copenhagen 30 min away.


For the hundredth time, no, Malmø was harder hit than Copenhagen was. This claim has been thoroughly debunked.


olle wrote:
In Sweden special now when Sweden has lower or similar infection rate then Norway and Denmark we feel that Norway and Denmark is doing more politics then handling a pandemic.


You have lower infection rates because you are still stuck at the end of the first wave. The rest of us are well into the second.


M564038 wrote:
The swedish handling of this Pandemic has been a complete disaster.


:checkmark:
 
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c933103
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Re: Possibly of Everything Closing Down Across Northern Hemisphere in Fall 2020

Wed Sep 16, 2020 9:06 pm

ArchGuy1 wrote:
Will everything non essential across the Northern Hemisphere be shutting down again in the fall when COVID-19 will be circulating alongside the seasonal flu at the same time? I also heard that a second wave of COVID-19 is anticipated at the same time. So, does anyone know if this will mean restaurants, tourist attractions, non essential stores, schools, non essential construction work, and other businesses shutting down again across North America, the Middle East, Asia, and Europe in like November?

If evrdyone wear masks and keep proper hand hygiene, then while COVID is uncertain, seasonal flu infection can be minimalized
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c933103
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Re: Possibly of Everything Closing Down Across Northern Hemisphere in Fall 2020

Wed Sep 16, 2020 9:15 pm

GalaxyFlyer wrote:
COVID numbers are much more supple than just using national stats. Even hard hit areas are separated from lightly hit areas by a few miles in some case. My county has bad stats in the city and out here very few cases, none even remotely fatal. One town had a middle aged cop die and very few other cases.

Blaming any group of voters is pretty tendentious—anyone watch Pelosi get her hair done? There’s loads of hypocrites across the political spectrum.

If anything, I would say the relationship of party leaning and the pandemic is that, democratic-leaning place are usually more globalized woth more travellers from and to other countries, hence its initial wave started earlier, and republic-leaning area have less such connection, thus they mainly started getting it after the virus have entered the country. All other differences for the two types of area in the pandemic originated from this time lag.
It's pointless to attempt winning internet debate. 求同存異. よく見て・よく聞いて・よく考える
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Kent350787
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Re: Possibly of Everything Closing Down Across Northern Hemisphere in Fall 2020

Wed Sep 16, 2020 10:21 pm

TTailedTiger wrote:

Then why are Australia and other countries still struggling to control it?


Another Trump bullshit talking point. The virus spread in Victoria firstly because of less than ideal hotel quarantine practices, and then some people flouting social gathering rules. The exponential growth then took over.

Side note: Victoria’s 7 day average of new cases is back under 50.

In NSW, an infected Victorian socialised in NSW, and there was a growth to almost 200 active cases. The 7 day average in NSW of new cases is now under 5, and there have been no cases linked to unknown sources for almost two weeks.

In Queensland, residents infected in Victoria used an intermediate state to mask their point of origin to avoid quarantine. The infection then spread within their community. The Qld 7 day average is now below 1. There has been a worrying outbreak in an aged care facility, but the total active cases is around 30.

The other three stares and two territories have no active locally acquired cases.

The reason countries are “struggling to control it” is because the virus is so virulent (sic). But the struggles of some countries are orders of magnitude higher than others. The virus entered Australia via the USA and, from our perspective, the USA has gone on to poorly manage its response.

Another side point: I’ve been suffering a non-Covid-19 virus for almost a week, even though my social contact is low. I blame my wife who has been commuting to her office throughout.
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TTailedTiger
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Re: Possibly of Everything Closing Down Across Northern Hemisphere in Fall 2020

Wed Sep 16, 2020 10:34 pm

Kent350787 wrote:
TTailedTiger wrote:

Then why are Australia and other countries still struggling to control it?


Another Trump bullshit talking point. The virus spread in Victoria firstly because of less than ideal hotel quarantine practices, and then some people flouting social gathering rules. The exponential growth then took over.

Side note: Victoria’s 7 day average of new cases is back under 50.

In NSW, an infected Victorian socialised in NSW, and there was a growth to almost 200 active cases. The 7 day average in NSW of new cases is now under 5, and there have been no cases linked to unknown sources for almost two weeks.

In Queensland, residents infected in Victoria used an intermediate state to mask their point of origin to avoid quarantine. The infection then spread within their community. The Qld 7 day average is now below 1. There has been a worrying outbreak in an aged care facility, but the total active cases is around 30.

The other three stares and two territories have no active locally acquired cases.

The reason countries are “struggling to control it” is because the virus is so virulent (sic). But the struggles of some countries are orders of magnitude higher than others. The virus entered Australia via the USA and, from our perspective, the USA has gone on to poorly manage its response.

Another side point: I’ve been suffering a non-Covid-19 virus for almost a week, even though my social contact is low. I blame my wife who has been commuting to her office throughout.



That's the problem with some people. Always blaming others and never taking responsibility for themselves. If I was deathly afraid if contracting covid I would isolate myself. That is something you can control. I can't stand people always wanting to play the victim.
 
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Aaron747
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Re: Possibly of Everything Closing Down Across Northern Hemisphere in Fall 2020

Wed Sep 16, 2020 11:33 pm

TTailedTiger wrote:
Kent350787 wrote:
TTailedTiger wrote:

Then why are Australia and other countries still struggling to control it?


Another Trump bullshit talking point. The virus spread in Victoria firstly because of less than ideal hotel quarantine practices, and then some people flouting social gathering rules. The exponential growth then took over.

Side note: Victoria’s 7 day average of new cases is back under 50.

In NSW, an infected Victorian socialised in NSW, and there was a growth to almost 200 active cases. The 7 day average in NSW of new cases is now under 5, and there have been no cases linked to unknown sources for almost two weeks.

In Queensland, residents infected in Victoria used an intermediate state to mask their point of origin to avoid quarantine. The infection then spread within their community. The Qld 7 day average is now below 1. There has been a worrying outbreak in an aged care facility, but the total active cases is around 30.

The other three stares and two territories have no active locally acquired cases.

The reason countries are “struggling to control it” is because the virus is so virulent (sic). But the struggles of some countries are orders of magnitude higher than others. The virus entered Australia via the USA and, from our perspective, the USA has gone on to poorly manage its response.

Another side point: I’ve been suffering a non-Covid-19 virus for almost a week, even though my social contact is low. I blame my wife who has been commuting to her office throughout.



That's the problem with some people. Always blaming others and never taking responsibility for themselves. If I was deathly afraid if contracting covid I would isolate myself. That is something you can control. I can't stand people always wanting to play the victim.


Total responsibility doesn’t work for this situation in a society because people have their own interpretations of risk. That’s what public health institutions are for. One of the superspreader cases in Victoria was a hotel employee who boinked an infected guest and then spread the virus throughout his suburb. That’s hardly fair to the individuals in his town who were trying to limit their own activities and protect themselves and their families.

Let’s leave ‘individual responsibility’ to conducting one’s own comings, goings, finances and family life choices. Public health is just a leeeetle bigger picture than that.
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seb146
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Re: Possibly of Everything Closing Down Across Northern Hemisphere in Fall 2020

Thu Sep 17, 2020 12:01 am

flyguy89 wrote:
seb146 wrote:
Can someone explain why I am the bad guy because I want to wear a mask for me while these other people think they are heroes and are running around demanding we take off our masks because we have to liberate ourselves or whatever? Why do these loud people think they are right? What gives these loud people the right to demand we all live the way they want?

IDK honestly people have been very good about mask-wearing where I live whenever I've gone out or traveled, and I don't live in a particularly liberal bastion by any means. The sense I get is while some may grouse about it privately and on social and such, almost everyone is complying. The anti-mask protests are always pretty small as well.


I live in fairly right wing community and I see way too many people in public with masks around their chin or neck and complaining every chance they get and get mad at me because "I can't hear you with that damn thing on" and people say things like "our man hating governor is just doing this to punish us" (yes, I actually heard a few people say this to my masked up face) and "I don't know anyone who got sick".

Some of these people even still lick their fingers to count out cash. That just makes me physically ill anyway. I did pizza delivery in Portland for two years. I saw things. I delivered to some unsavory businesses. Another six months, I probably could have been assisting at OB/GYN clinics.

The more people I meet, the more I love and appreciate our dog.
You bet I'm pumped!!! I just had a green tea!!!
 
TTailedTiger
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Re: Possibly of Everything Closing Down Across Northern Hemisphere in Fall 2020

Thu Sep 17, 2020 12:05 am

Aaron747 wrote:
TTailedTiger wrote:
Kent350787 wrote:

Another Trump bullshit talking point. The virus spread in Victoria firstly because of less than ideal hotel quarantine practices, and then some people flouting social gathering rules. The exponential growth then took over.

Side note: Victoria’s 7 day average of new cases is back under 50.

In NSW, an infected Victorian socialised in NSW, and there was a growth to almost 200 active cases. The 7 day average in NSW of new cases is now under 5, and there have been no cases linked to unknown sources for almost two weeks.

In Queensland, residents infected in Victoria used an intermediate state to mask their point of origin to avoid quarantine. The infection then spread within their community. The Qld 7 day average is now below 1. There has been a worrying outbreak in an aged care facility, but the total active cases is around 30.

The other three stares and two territories have no active locally acquired cases.

The reason countries are “struggling to control it” is because the virus is so virulent (sic). But the struggles of some countries are orders of magnitude higher than others. The virus entered Australia via the USA and, from our perspective, the USA has gone on to poorly manage its response.

Another side point: I’ve been suffering a non-Covid-19 virus for almost a week, even though my social contact is low. I blame my wife who has been commuting to her office throughout.



That's the problem with some people. Always blaming others and never taking responsibility for themselves. If I was deathly afraid if contracting covid I would isolate myself. That is something you can control. I can't stand people always wanting to play the victim.


Total responsibility doesn’t work for this situation in a society because people have their own interpretations of risk. That’s what public health institutions are for. One of the superspreader cases in Victoria was a hotel employee who boinked an infected guest and then spread the virus throughout his suburb. That’s hardly fair to the individuals in his town who were trying to limit their own activities and protect themselves and their families.

Let’s leave ‘individual responsibility’ to conducting one’s own comings, goings, finances and family life choices. Public health is just a leeeetle bigger picture than that.


Your interpretation requires complete trust and submission to government agencies. We don't particularly go for that in the US. Thank God.
 
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Aaron747
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Re: Possibly of Everything Closing Down Across Northern Hemisphere in Fall 2020

Thu Sep 17, 2020 12:07 am

TTailedTiger wrote:
Aaron747 wrote:
TTailedTiger wrote:


That's the problem with some people. Always blaming others and never taking responsibility for themselves. If I was deathly afraid if contracting covid I would isolate myself. That is something you can control. I can't stand people always wanting to play the victim.


Total responsibility doesn’t work for this situation in a society because people have their own interpretations of risk. That’s what public health institutions are for. One of the superspreader cases in Victoria was a hotel employee who boinked an infected guest and then spread the virus throughout his suburb. That’s hardly fair to the individuals in his town who were trying to limit their own activities and protect themselves and their families.

Let’s leave ‘individual responsibility’ to conducting one’s own comings, goings, finances and family life choices. Public health is just a leeeetle bigger picture than that.


Your interpretation requires complete trust and submission to government agencies. We don't particularly go for that in the US. Thank God.


If you were talking about a whole slew of alphabet agencies, I would agree. But NIH and CDC are run by accomplished scientists - there’s nothing wrong with that. We do ‘go for that’ because accomplished scientists did away with polio and made Apollo succeed before the USSR. We used to be the scientific darling of the world...now people are scratching their heads.
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flyguy89
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Re: Possibly of Everything Closing Down Across Northern Hemisphere in Fall 2020

Thu Sep 17, 2020 1:19 am

seb146 wrote:
flyguy89 wrote:
seb146 wrote:
Can someone explain why I am the bad guy because I want to wear a mask for me while these other people think they are heroes and are running around demanding we take off our masks because we have to liberate ourselves or whatever? Why do these loud people think they are right? What gives these loud people the right to demand we all live the way they want?

IDK honestly people have been very good about mask-wearing where I live whenever I've gone out or traveled, and I don't live in a particularly liberal bastion by any means. The sense I get is while some may grouse about it privately and on social and such, almost everyone is complying. The anti-mask protests are always pretty small as well.


I live in fairly right wing community and I see way too many people in public with masks around their chin or neck and complaining every chance they get and get mad at me because "I can't hear you with that damn thing on" and people say things like "our man hating governor is just doing this to punish us" (yes, I actually heard a few people say this to my masked up face) and "I don't know anyone who got sick".

Some of these people even still lick their fingers to count out cash. That just makes me physically ill anyway. I did pizza delivery in Portland for two years. I saw things. I delivered to some unsavory businesses. Another six months, I probably could have been assisting at OB/GYN clinics.

The more people I meet, the more I love and appreciate our dog.

I must say, you kind of sound like a glutton for punishment for as much as you're always carrying on about where you live. You're in Oregon, right? As someone who grew up in Kentucky, not even Kentucky sounds as bad as you describe Oregon lol.
 
Kent350787
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Re: Possibly of Everything Closing Down Across Northern Hemisphere in Fall 2020

Thu Sep 17, 2020 1:29 am

TTailedTiger wrote:
Your interpretation requires complete trust and submission to government agencies. We don't particularly go for that in the US. Thank God.


Yes, it does seem to be one of the more ridiculous facets of the US right. It's great to live in a country where trust in collective action remains high, public servants aren't overtly partison when lives are astake and actions are questioned and improvements made.

Human life appears very cheap in the USA. I'm very glad our national death rate isn't 20 times what it is, let alone 80 times what we've seen in my own state.

It's more and more likely that most of our nation will be opened up safely to itself by Christmas - I fear for my US relatives (although they are mask wearing work from homers)
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olle
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Re: Possibly of Everything Closing Down Across Northern Hemisphere in Fall 2020

Thu Sep 17, 2020 6:53 am

M564038 wrote:
Sweden now has Stricter regulations than Norway, and thus at the moment has a lower number of new cases, with a contributing factor being that you are testing half as many per capita, also hiding the real case numbers.
And THAT my friend, is politics. Trumpian politics no less. The swedish handling of this Pandemic has been a complete disaster.

I do not think Sweden is in a position to say that other countries effort is «politics» when those other countries had 10% of your deaths per capita.
The component of old people’s homes being infected was real for us as well.
Every Swedish county had a higher infection rate than Norway, that is why we took the unprecedented step of closing the border.
I sense the swedes are insulted by this, but you had 10 t i m e s the number of deaths. 10 times! You do not seem to grasp this.


olle wrote:
stl07 wrote:
That Sweden thing is a total lie that was fact-checked by most news sources except for you know who. Compare their deaths to NORWAY, not the US as NORWAY has a very similar demographic but they shut down


Actually most death happened in Stockholm, the rest of the country has similar numbers as Denmark and Norway.

In Stockholm a major part of the death was homes for older people where people sick from holidays Austria during the worse week there went visit their old ones. The rest of Sweden went holiday the weeks after and never got the same effect. The other group was immigrants living squeezed driving the tourists in their taxis.

Malmö for example for long time had lover infection rates then Copenhagen 30 min away.

Oslo, Fredrikstad has higher infection rates then Värmland and Karlstad but in Norwegian news it is a lot of talk about the danger visit Sweden not visit Oslo.

In Sweden special now when Sweden has lower or similar infection rate then Norway and Denmark we feel that Norway and Denmark is doing more politics then handling a pandemic.


Right now VG.NO say that Copenhagen or "Hovedstaden" has 102 cases per 100 000 while "Skåne" where Malmö is included has 34. Oslo should be "red" if it was in Sweden (more then 20) while Värmland län has 14 cases per 100 000. Still Norwegians are not allowed to visit Värmland but allowed to visit Oslo. Same was for Copenhagen / Skåne during the summer.

https://www.vg.no/spesial/2020/corona/reise/

Something that might be interesting for this thread is that Swedish authorizes while trying to understand why Swedish nursing homes was worse hit then Norwegian ones there start to be a few things showing up. One of them is that the last 2-3 years of flu season hit Sweden much less then Norway. Similar for other countries in Europe bad hit by the Covid in the spring. This could mean that there was more candidates to get very serious sick. I think later this year we will get a much better picture.

This could actually be supported by the second wave in many countries like Spain where number of cases go up but number of death stays at least until now low.
 
VSMUT
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Re: Possibly of Everything Closing Down Across Northern Hemisphere in Fall 2020

Thu Sep 17, 2020 8:03 am

c933103 wrote:
ArchGuy1 wrote:
Will everything non essential across the Northern Hemisphere be shutting down again in the fall when COVID-19 will be circulating alongside the seasonal flu at the same time? I also heard that a second wave of COVID-19 is anticipated at the same time. So, does anyone know if this will mean restaurants, tourist attractions, non essential stores, schools, non essential construction work, and other businesses shutting down again across North America, the Middle East, Asia, and Europe in like November?

If evrdyone wear masks and keep proper hand hygiene, then while COVID is uncertain, seasonal flu infection can be minimalized


Masks? You should first and foremost distance yourself from other people. Keeping 2 meters from other people is way more effective than masks. This isn't an airborne disease, respiratory droplets quickly drop to the ground.
 
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Re: Possibly of Everything Closing Down Across Northern Hemisphere in Fall 2020

Thu Sep 17, 2020 8:12 am

VSMUT wrote:
c933103 wrote:
ArchGuy1 wrote:
Will everything non essential across the Northern Hemisphere be shutting down again in the fall when COVID-19 will be circulating alongside the seasonal flu at the same time? I also heard that a second wave of COVID-19 is anticipated at the same time. So, does anyone know if this will mean restaurants, tourist attractions, non essential stores, schools, non essential construction work, and other businesses shutting down again across North America, the Middle East, Asia, and Europe in like November?

If everyone wear masks and keep proper hand hygiene, then while COVID is uncertain, seasonal flu infection can be minimalized


Masks? You should first and foremost distance yourself from other people. Keeping 2 meters from other people is way more effective than masks. This isn't an airborne disease, respiratory droplets quickly drop to the ground.

The distinction between airborne and droplet transmission is not clear cut.
And, masks are also helpful in reducing significantly, although not totally preventing, transmission by droplet.
In fact it is exactly because it is mainly transmission by droplet that make regular masks being useful. If it's airborne you need at least N95/FFP2 masks.
Last edited by c933103 on Thu Sep 17, 2020 8:19 am, edited 4 times in total.
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tommy1808
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Re: Possibly of Everything Closing Down Across Northern Hemisphere in Fall 2020

Thu Sep 17, 2020 8:13 am

VSMUT wrote:
c933103 wrote:
ArchGuy1 wrote:
Will everything non essential across the Northern Hemisphere be shutting down again in the fall when COVID-19 will be circulating alongside the seasonal flu at the same time? I also heard that a second wave of COVID-19 is anticipated at the same time. So, does anyone know if this will mean restaurants, tourist attractions, non essential stores, schools, non essential construction work, and other businesses shutting down again across North America, the Middle East, Asia, and Europe in like November?

If evrdyone wear masks and keep proper hand hygiene, then while COVID is uncertain, seasonal flu infection can be minimalized


Masks? You should first and foremost distance yourself from other people. Keeping 2 meters from other people is way more effective than masks. This isn't an airborne disease, respiratory droplets quickly drop to the ground.


that must be why transmissions in barber shops don´t seem to happen. I can barely grasp how they can work with those 2 meter scissor extensions.....

best regards
Thomas
Well, there is prophecy in the bible after all: 2 Timothy 3:1-6
 
VSMUT
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Re: Possibly of Everything Closing Down Across Northern Hemisphere in Fall 2020

Thu Sep 17, 2020 8:20 am

c933103 wrote:
And, masks are also helpful in reducing, although not totally preventing, transmission by droplet.


Distancing completely removes the risk of transmission.


tommy1808 wrote:
VSMUT wrote:
c933103 wrote:
If evrdyone wear masks and keep proper hand hygiene, then while COVID is uncertain, seasonal flu infection can be minimalized


Masks? You should first and foremost distance yourself from other people. Keeping 2 meters from other people is way more effective than masks. This isn't an airborne disease, respiratory droplets quickly drop to the ground.


that must be why transmissions in barber shops don´t seem to happen. I can barely grasp how they can work with those 2 meter scissor extensions.....

best regards
Thomas


I don't know about you, but the barber is a place I go maybe once every 3 months.
 
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c933103
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Re: Possibly of Everything Closing Down Across Northern Hemisphere in Fall 2020

Thu Sep 17, 2020 8:30 am

VSMUT wrote:
c933103 wrote:
And, masks are also helpful in reducing, although not totally preventing, transmission by droplet.


Distancing completely removes the risk of transmission.



As have been mentioned, the distinction between airborne transmission and droplet transmission is not clear cut and there are also researches indicating respiratory droplets from coughing can go beyond 2 meters. The current social distancing guideline widely enforced is not sufficient to block virus transmission completely.
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tommy1808
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Re: Possibly of Everything Closing Down Across Northern Hemisphere in Fall 2020

Thu Sep 17, 2020 8:44 am

VSMUT wrote:
I don't know about you, but the barber is a place I go maybe once every 3 months.


i heard the employees work there every day .... and we even had them with corona infections for zero transmissions....

best regards
Thomas
Well, there is prophecy in the bible after all: 2 Timothy 3:1-6
 
StarAC17
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Re: Possibly of Everything Closing Down Across Northern Hemisphere in Fall 2020

Thu Sep 17, 2020 2:11 pm

VSMUT wrote:
c933103 wrote:
ArchGuy1 wrote:
Will everything non essential across the Northern Hemisphere be shutting down again in the fall when COVID-19 will be circulating alongside the seasonal flu at the same time? I also heard that a second wave of COVID-19 is anticipated at the same time. So, does anyone know if this will mean restaurants, tourist attractions, non essential stores, schools, non essential construction work, and other businesses shutting down again across North America, the Middle East, Asia, and Europe in like November?

If evrdyone wear masks and keep proper hand hygiene, then while COVID is uncertain, seasonal flu infection can be minimalized


Masks? You should first and foremost distance yourself from other people. Keeping 2 meters from other people is way more effective than masks. This isn't an airborne disease, respiratory droplets quickly drop to the ground.


Its primarily spread by respiratory droplets.

There is a lot of evidence to suggest that this is spread also by aerosols which can stay in the air for hours and get into HVAC systems which is what has been seen in many places.
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ArchGuy1
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Re: Possibly of Everything Closing Down Across Northern Hemisphere in Fall 2020

Thu Sep 17, 2020 5:16 pm

StarAC17 wrote:
VSMUT wrote:
c933103 wrote:
If evrdyone wear masks and keep proper hand hygiene, then while COVID is uncertain, seasonal flu infection can be minimalized


Masks? You should first and foremost distance yourself from other people. Keeping 2 meters from other people is way more effective than masks. This isn't an airborne disease, respiratory droplets quickly drop to the ground.


Its primarily spread by respiratory droplets.

There is a lot of evidence to suggest that this is spread also by aerosols which can stay in the air for hours and get into HVAC systems which is what has been seen in many places.

As more people stay inside in the Fall and Winter, I would not be suprised of even more infections of COVID-19 across the Northern Hemisphere than what are seen now and were seen this summer due to HVAC systems. So, a second wave of shutdowns would not surprise me.
 
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seb146
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Re: Possibly of Everything Closing Down Across Northern Hemisphere in Fall 2020

Thu Sep 17, 2020 5:33 pm

flyguy89 wrote:
seb146 wrote:
flyguy89 wrote:
IDK honestly people have been very good about mask-wearing where I live whenever I've gone out or traveled, and I don't live in a particularly liberal bastion by any means. The sense I get is while some may grouse about it privately and on social and such, almost everyone is complying. The anti-mask protests are always pretty small as well.


I live in fairly right wing community and I see way too many people in public with masks around their chin or neck and complaining every chance they get and get mad at me because "I can't hear you with that damn thing on" and people say things like "our man hating governor is just doing this to punish us" (yes, I actually heard a few people say this to my masked up face) and "I don't know anyone who got sick".

Some of these people even still lick their fingers to count out cash. That just makes me physically ill anyway. I did pizza delivery in Portland for two years. I saw things. I delivered to some unsavory businesses. Another six months, I probably could have been assisting at OB/GYN clinics.

The more people I meet, the more I love and appreciate our dog.

I must say, you kind of sound like a glutton for punishment for as much as you're always carrying on about where you live. You're in Oregon, right? As someone who grew up in Kentucky, not even Kentucky sounds as bad as you describe Oregon lol.


The geology of Oregon is fascinating. I love the natural beauty of this state. But people in rural areas go and ruin it by just leaving their cars to rust in their yards and demanding conformity and yelling at clouds. Sure, the protests in that three block area of downtown Portland seem bad, but I can live a quiet and comfortable life as me there or Eugene or Bend. I will say there are a few small towns where people are open minded and leave others alone. Ashland, Enterprise, and all the coastal towns north of the Siuslaw River. But, for the most part, rural Oregon is not a place for open minded people to live long term. It is that way in every state.
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Waterbomber2
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Re: Possibly of Everything Closing Down Across Northern Hemisphere in Fall 2020

Thu Sep 17, 2020 5:50 pm

In early August, reports citing politicians were surfacing that Spain had plans to initiate pre-planned lock downs starting September 18th:



August 9, 2020
Spain is preparing to lock on Friday September 18 with the three-phase system closing the borders with France and Portugal

Spain’s government headed by Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez is set to lock Spain down again on Friday, September 18, 2020
Pedro Sanchez is expected to shut down Spain on Friday, September 18 as the nation fights to contain the increase in coronavirus outbreaks in Spain.

The nation, which is beginning to wage a losing battle against the pandemic, has seen a sharp rise in COVID-19 nationwide and the government has set September 18 as the date to impose lockdown rules on its citizens, according to the reports. ministers of Congress.

While the previous lockdown saw a three-phase release, starting September 18, the overall plan is to introduce a three-phase lockdown.

The first phase will see if plans go ahead, see regional lockdown, which will prevent Spanish citizens from traveling outside their residential municipalities, as well as border closures with France, Portugal and Italy aside. for essential trade passages. The first phase will also see the cessation of non-essential passenger flights from Europe.

Phase two, if the first phase does not contain and prevent an increase in a 14-day monitoring period, will see the closure of non-essential businesses, such as bars, restaurants and cafes. Theaters, cinemas and other places of social gathering will also be included.

The third phase, if necessary another 14 days later, will again see citizens ordered to stay at home and allowed to go out only for their basic needs.

The two Spanish members of the congress also revealed to the Weekly Euro News On Saturday, talks were held with prime ministers of other countries, briefing on the departure plan, including Britain’s Boris Johnson.

One of the ministers revealed: “Governments are working together to try to prevent another pandemic and the loss of thousands of lives, this is one of the reasons you see vacation companies canceling flights and packages. holidays in September, they were warned ”

“We the Spanish government must protect our nation, rest assured that the government will do everything in its power to keep the wheels of industry moving, but at the same time we must protect our people”

“The first phase should start on Friday, September 18, the government will then assess the situation 14 days later, nobody wants to see the second phase put in place, everything will be done to avoid it, but it will be put in place. and the third if the needs must ”

“This time we were able to plan ahead, we got through the summer and allowed our citizens freedom of movement during the summer months, now we need to take back control of reducing infections and deaths” , he concluded.



https://www.euroweeklynews.com/2020/08/ ... -portugal/
https://www.fr24news.com/a/2020/08/spai ... tugal.html


This was denied as a conspiracy theory by Spain:

10th August 2020, 17:41
Spanish Government refuses to comment on claim a second lockdown is planned for September
The Spanish government has refused to comment on claims that Spain will go into a second lockdown in September.

On Saturday, the Euro Weekly News carried a report that the country would close its borders with Portugal and France on the 18th of September. The largest English language newspaper in Spain said the closure of borders would form part of a three phase plan into a new lock down, which would be phased out over a number of weeks and begin at a regional level. The item was also carried by the French press this weekend.


https://www.gbc.gi/news/spanish-governm ... -september



But now it looks like it's happening and that Spain will announce targeted lock downs tomorrow:

Spain, which has the highest number of confirmed coronavirus infections in Europe at 614,360, according to data collated by Johns Hopkins University (JHU), is reportedly set to announce targeted lockdowns in places where the virus is spreading rapidly, and renewed restrictions of movement on Friday.


https://www.cnbc.com/2020/09/17/coronav ... eturn.html
Last edited by Waterbomber2 on Thu Sep 17, 2020 5:58 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
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c933103
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Re: Possibly of Everything Closing Down Across Northern Hemisphere in Fall 2020

Thu Sep 17, 2020 5:53 pm

ArchGuy1 wrote:
StarAC17 wrote:
VSMUT wrote:

Masks? You should first and foremost distance yourself from other people. Keeping 2 meters from other people is way more effective than masks. This isn't an airborne disease, respiratory droplets quickly drop to the ground.


Its primarily spread by respiratory droplets.

There is a lot of evidence to suggest that this is spread also by aerosols which can stay in the air for hours and get into HVAC systems which is what has been seen in many places.

As more people stay inside in the Fall and Winter, I would not be suprised of even more infections of COVID-19 across the Northern Hemisphere than what are seen now and were seen this summer due to HVAC systems. So, a second wave of shutdowns would not surprise me.

It depends. In some places where their winter is warm so no heating is needed, or where their heating is either provided by room-unit devices or through heated water pipe, it won't be a problem.
Otherwise, for centralized HVAC system with air circulation, it is important to install HEPA filter into those system to filter and remove pathogens, ans of course they should also be replaced periodically to keep effectiveness.
For places that need air conditioning, this step should have been completed before summer.
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olle
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Re: Possibly of Everything Closing Down Across Northern Hemisphere in Fall 2020

Sun Sep 20, 2020 11:59 am

M564038 wrote:
Sweden now has Stricter regulations than Norway, and thus at the moment has a lower number of new cases, with a contributing factor being that you are testing half as many per capita, also hiding the real case numbers.
And THAT my friend, is politics. Trumpian politics no less. The swedish handling of this Pandemic has been a complete disaster.

I do not think Sweden is in a position to say that other countries effort is «politics» when those other countries had 10% of your deaths per capita.
The component of old people’s homes being infected was real for us as well.
Every Swedish county had a higher infection rate than Norway, that is why we took the unprecedented step of closing the border.
I sense the swedes are insulted by this, but you had 10 t i m e s the number of deaths. 10 times! You do not seem to grasp this.


olle wrote:
stl07 wrote:
That Sweden thing is a total lie that was fact-checked by most news sources except for you know who. Compare their deaths to NORWAY, not the US as NORWAY has a very similar demographic but they shut down


Actually most death happened in Stockholm, the rest of the country has similar numbers as Denmark and Norway.

In Stockholm a major part of the death was homes for older people where people sick from holidays Austria during the worse week there went visit their old ones. The rest of Sweden went holiday the weeks after and never got the same effect. The other group was immigrants living squeezed driving the tourists in their taxis.

Malmö for example for long time had lover infection rates then Copenhagen 30 min away.

Oslo, Fredrikstad has higher infection rates then Värmland and Karlstad but in Norwegian news it is a lot of talk about the danger visit Sweden not visit Oslo.

In Sweden special now when Sweden has lower or similar infection rate then Norway and Denmark we feel that Norway and Denmark is doing more politics then handling a pandemic.


Right now the most effected regions in Scandinavia is Vestland in Norway and Copenhagen. As I can see there is no restrictions for Norwegians to go to Vestland;

Also Oslo increases fast. If Denmark and Norway shall keep its very nice record in number of death it need to be lucky now and avoid it to spread to older people.

https://www.vg.no/nyheter/i/gWPz80/inge ... n-vestland

- This is probably due to the fact that many people have had close contact during a period when infection began to spread in Bergen. It is simply a sign that the infection control councils have not been followed well enough by enough people when the holiday was over, writes Espen Rostrup Nakstad, assistant director of the Norwegian Directorate of Health, in an e-mail to VG.

In recent weeks, there have been outbreaks in Vestland county, especially in Bergen municipality. As a result, the municipality has introduced strict measures to deal with the infection.

A total of 376 people have been registered infected with corona in the last 14 days in Vestland county. Bergen municipality has an average of 32 new cases of infection in recent days

This has increased the infection pressure in Western Norway. Only the Capital Region of Denmark (Copenhagen and the surrounding area) has more new cases of infection per 100,000 inhabitants than Western Norway in the Nordic countries.

- This is an outbreak that one must work to crack down on through strict local measures, which were also introduced a week ago, says Minister of Health Bent Høie to VG.

According to him, it is known that it can take a few days before you see the effect of this type of measure.

- But I hope we start to see effect in the next few days, otherwise there may be a need for further measures, or adjustment of the measures.

Higher infection pressure than all Swedish regions
Vestland is thus in second place in the Nordic region with 65.7 infected per 100,000 inhabitants, and at the top in Norway, according to the National Institute of Public Health's latest weekly report.

This is shown by VG's figures from weeks 36 and 37, which are taken from FHI, the Swedish Public Health Agency and the Danish National Board of Health.

If you look at all the regions as one, three Norwegian counties end up on the list of the ten regions with the most new cases of infection per 100,000 inhabitants.

Thus, Vestland also has a higher infection pressure than all the Swedish regions.

- Among the lowest in Europe, if we disregard the eruption in Bergen and the many small eruptions in Oslo. Nevertheless, we are just as vulnerable as any other country to new outbreaks if we do not follow closely every single day, he writes.

- Can be infected in our country
While Vestland ends up in second place, Oslo ends up in fifth place. Viken is also on the list of regions with the highest infection pressure, in tenth place.

- But we do not operate with red and yellow regions nationally, as we do with, for example, Sweden.
 
melpax
Posts: 2060
Joined: Mon Apr 25, 2005 12:13 am

Re: Possibly of Everything Closing Down Across Northern Hemisphere in Fall 2020

Sun Sep 20, 2020 1:16 pm

Aaron747 wrote:

Total responsibility doesn’t work for this situation in a society because people have their own interpretations of risk. That’s what public health institutions are for. One of the superspreader cases in Victoria was a hotel employee who boinked an infected guest and then spread the virus throughout his suburb. That’s hardly fair to the individuals in his town who were trying to limit their own activities and protect themselves and their families.

Let’s leave ‘individual responsibility’ to conducting one’s own comings, goings, finances and family life choices. Public health is just a leeeetle bigger picture than that.


The 'Hotel employee' was actually a security guard who worked for a state government contractor. The hotel in question was being used as a designated quarantine hotel for overseas travellers undergoing 14 days isolation after arrival in Australia. Very badly handled, guards had little or no training in the use of PPE, and some guards also worked other jobs, which contributed to the spread. Contractors employing guards from Gumtree (Aussie equivalent of Craigslist) didn't help things either. The state government was offered the use of Defence personnel, which was knocked back. Hence why Melbourne is still in stage 4 lockdown with nightly curfews, for another 5 weeks.....
Essendon - Whatever it takes......
 
Waterbomber2
Posts: 1336
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Re: Possibly of Everything Closing Down Across Northern Hemisphere in Fall 2020

Sun Sep 20, 2020 9:50 pm

c933103 wrote:
ArchGuy1 wrote:
StarAC17 wrote:

Its primarily spread by respiratory droplets.

There is a lot of evidence to suggest that this is spread also by aerosols which can stay in the air for hours and get into HVAC systems which is what has been seen in many places.

As more people stay inside in the Fall and Winter, I would not be suprised of even more infections of COVID-19 across the Northern Hemisphere than what are seen now and were seen this summer due to HVAC systems. So, a second wave of shutdowns would not surprise me.

It depends. In some places where their winter is warm so no heating is needed, or where their heating is either provided by room-unit devices or through heated water pipe, it won't be a problem.
Otherwise, for centralized HVAC system with air circulation, it is important to install HEPA filter into those system to filter and remove pathogens, ans of course they should also be replaced periodically to keep effectiveness.
For places that need air conditioning, this step should have been completed before summer.


I don't share this concern about HVAC.
Any system that heats air will probably kill viruses as the air passes through it and the virus are instantaneously subjected to high temperatures.
Air circulation also allows the virus to be spread out and thinned down.
Most A/C units are fitted with filters. Hepa filters can make a difference, but in general most filters are like a huge mask on your A/C unit.



The real threat will be stagnant, cool, dry air, or any of these individually.
Well-ventilated, warm and moist air will probably be the best.



Going back to the topic, things are deteriorating quickly in Europe, but as expected governments are reluctant to take blanket measures as economists and the business world apply pressure.
The dramatic evolution over the coming days should have them scrambling in about 10 days to 14 days, so I stand by my widespread lock down prediction for the week of September 28th, which took into account the reluctance factor. Looking at the current evolution, dozens of million Europeans will probably enter a lock down as of October 3rd.

Remember, detected infections are a representation of the situation 7-14 days before due to the time lag between an infection and a reported lab result. So actual infections are already much worse than the reported numbers. It takes time for measures to start having an effect too, so small scale measures like we see in Spain or France will not show any results immediately or at all.

What we are living right now is failure of government policy.
Every day that they are resisting widespread lockdowns "to save the economy" is going to cause avoidable deaths weeks and months from now and extend the economic hardship for even longer.
The failure is not apparent right now and everyone is talking it down as "because we're testing more". In reality they're testing more because there are more cases, not only because they can test more. In March-April the wave started off from zero cases, this time the wave started with a large incubation pool, so it will be much worse. So yes, more testing results in more reported cases, but so does more people with symptoms.

If you look at the graph of new cases of France, you can see that the'ye headed towards 15.000 new confirmed cases per day. So the actual infections could be in the 30.000-50.000 arena and rising.
Local lockdowns will fail, as by the time local outbreaks are detected and then major measures are taken locally, it's also already widespread (under the radar) in other area's.


The reluctance to shut down in the first wave is being mirrored again.
No lessons learned.
 
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c933103
Posts: 4456
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Re: Possibly of Everything Closing Down Across Northern Hemisphere in Fall 2020

Mon Sep 21, 2020 4:53 am

Waterbomber2 wrote:
c933103 wrote:
ArchGuy1 wrote:
As more people stay inside in the Fall and Winter, I would not be suprised of even more infections of COVID-19 across the Northern Hemisphere than what are seen now and were seen this summer due to HVAC systems. So, a second wave of shutdowns would not surprise me.

It depends. In some places where their winter is warm so no heating is needed, or where their heating is either provided by room-unit devices or through heated water pipe, it won't be a problem.
Otherwise, for centralized HVAC system with air circulation, it is important to install HEPA filter into those system to filter and remove pathogens, ans of course they should also be replaced periodically to keep effectiveness.
For places that need air conditioning, this step should have been completed before summer.


I don't share this concern about HVAC.
Any system that heats air will probably kill viruses as the air passes through it and the virus are instantaneously subjected to high temperatures.
Air circulation also allows the virus to be spread out and thinned down.
Most A/C units are fitted with filters. Hepa filters can make a difference, but in general most filters are like a huge mask on your A/C unit.



The real threat will be stagnant, cool, dry air, or any of these individually.
Well-ventilated, warm and moist air will probably be the best.



Going back to the topic, things are deteriorating quickly in Europe, but as expected governments are reluctant to take blanket measures as economists and the business world apply pressure.
The dramatic evolution over the coming days should have them scrambling in about 10 days to 14 days, so I stand by my widespread lock down prediction for the week of September 28th, which took into account the reluctance factor. Looking at the current evolution, dozens of million Europeans will probably enter a lock down as of October 3rd.

Remember, detected infections are a representation of the situation 7-14 days before due to the time lag between an infection and a reported lab result. So actual infections are already much worse than the reported numbers. It takes time for measures to start having an effect too, so small scale measures like we see in Spain or France will not show any results immediately or at all.

What we are living right now is failure of government policy.
Every day that they are resisting widespread lockdowns "to save the economy" is going to cause avoidable deaths weeks and months from now and extend the economic hardship for even longer.
The failure is not apparent right now and everyone is talking it down as "because we're testing more". In reality they're testing more because there are more cases, not only because they can test more. In March-April the wave started off from zero cases, this time the wave started with a large incubation pool, so it will be much worse. So yes, more testing results in more reported cases, but so does more people with symptoms.

If you look at the graph of new cases of France, you can see that the'ye headed towards 15.000 new confirmed cases per day. So the actual infections could be in the 30.000-50.000 arena and rising.
Local lockdowns will fail, as by the time local outbreaks are detected and then major measures are taken locally, it's also already widespread (under the radar) in other area's.


The reluctance to shut down in the first wave is being mirrored again.
No lessons learned.

As I do not live in a place with any heating system, I would ask how hot would the air get?
It's pointless to attempt winning internet debate. 求同存異. よく見て・よく聞いて・よく考える
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tommy1808
Posts: 13463
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Re: Possibly of Everything Closing Down Across Northern Hemisphere in Fall 2020

Mon Sep 21, 2020 5:11 am

Waterbomber2 wrote:
c933103 wrote:
ArchGuy1 wrote:
As more people stay inside in the Fall and Winter, I would not be suprised of even more infections of COVID-19 across the Northern Hemisphere than what are seen now and were seen this summer due to HVAC systems. So, a second wave of shutdowns would not surprise me.

It depends. In some places where their winter is warm so no heating is needed, or where their heating is either provided by room-unit devices or through heated water pipe, it won't be a problem.
Otherwise, for centralized HVAC system with air circulation, it is important to install HEPA filter into those system to filter and remove pathogens, ans of course they should also be replaced periodically to keep effectiveness.
For places that need air conditioning, this step should have been completed before summer.


I don't share this concern about HVAC.
Any system that heats air will probably kill viruses as the air passes through it and the virus are instantaneously subjected to high temperatures..


it takes 3 minutes to somehow effectively kill the Corona virus at 75°C (160°F). Three minutes is a lot of distance in a heating system.
https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/ful ... 2/rmv.2115

best regards
Thomas
Well, there is prophecy in the bible after all: 2 Timothy 3:1-6
 
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Aeroflot777
Posts: 3193
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Re: Possibly of Everything Closing Down Across Northern Hemisphere in Fall 2020

Mon Sep 21, 2020 4:13 pm

olle wrote:
In recent weeks, there have been outbreaks in Vestland county, especially in Bergen municipality. As a result, the municipality has introduced strict measures to deal with the infection.


There's a whole lot of yapping happening with these "strict measures" and not a lot of change and enforcement in actuality. I've been in Bergen on and off since mid-summer. And most recently the past two weeks through present. Numbers here shot up especially when the new students came to town and parties were happening all over prior to the start of the new school year. They imposed new measures, but in reality, almost no one wears masks anywhere (I'd go as far as saying most people here don't even own one). Maybe one or two people on public transport wearing a mask out of the entire carriage. Stores are a free-for-all, distance is not really kept anywhere. Biggest noticeable difference is fewer people visiting restaurants since it's a pain in the behind with new regulations, half of which don't make logical sense. The food industry suffering as a result. All in all, no real enforcement and a ton of fluff in the media.

Masks in transit aren't even mandatory, they are "encouraged". Most people simply disregard.
 
StarAC17
Posts: 3855
Joined: Thu Aug 07, 2003 11:54 am

Re: Possibly of Everything Closing Down Across Northern Hemisphere in Fall 2020

Mon Sep 21, 2020 5:01 pm

I don't share this concern about HVAC.
Any system that heats air will probably kill viruses as the air passes through it and the virus are instantaneously subjected to high temperatures.
Air circulation also allows the virus to be spread out and thinned down.
Most A/C units are fitted with filters. Hepa filters can make a difference, but in general most filters are like a huge mask on your A/C unit.



The real threat will be stagnant, cool, dry air, or any of these individually.
Well-ventilated, warm and moist air will probably be the best.


We have many documented cases of mass transmission in indoor areas where the virus has gotten into HVAC systems where in restaurants as an example people very far away get infected from a person in another area of the restaurant. Dilution is not the solution when it comes to covid19, at best you would give many people milder infections because of a lower viral load which isn't exactly preferable.

So from a quick search a temperature of 56 degrees Celsius is required to kill Covid19. Most heating units don't heat the air long enough to even get close to that temperature. UV and Hepa filters are needed to minimize the amount of spread in indoor areas.

What we are living right now is failure of government policy.
Every day that they are resisting widespread lockdowns "to save the economy" is going to cause avoidable deaths weeks and months from now and extend the economic hardship for even longer.
The failure is not apparent right now and everyone is talking it down as "because we're testing more". In reality they're testing more because there are more cases, not only because they can test more. In March-April the wave started off from zero cases, this time the wave started with a large incubation pool, so it will be much worse. So yes, more testing results in more reported cases, but so does more people with symptoms.

If you look at the graph of new cases of France, you can see that the'ye headed towards 15.000 new confirmed cases per day. So the actual infections could be in the 30.000-50.000 arena and rising.
Local lockdowns will fail, as by the time local outbreaks are detected and then major measures are taken locally, it's also already widespread (under the radar) in other area's.


The reluctance to shut down in the first wave is being mirrored again.
No lessons learned.


I think the lesson was actually learned and governments are resisting lockdowns because from day one the idea of the lockdowns was to never eradicate Covid19 but to ensure hospitals don't get overrun. They knew right away that this virus in mild in most people but its novel so no real protection against it.

With primarily the under 40 group of people getting infected a massive spike in deaths and hospitalizations have not yet materialized. Governments do not have the public support of going into lockdowns again especially because the dead bodies in the streets which was the fear in March never materialized.

Testing and tracing are much more effective and countries that do that have managed to stay largely open such as Taiwan, Singapore, Hong Kong and South Korea. I await your response that these countries are covering things up but this is a fact.
Where I live in Canada where we are getting 800-1200 new cases a day with record high testing. Most experts and politicians have said we will remain where we are unless we can't trace a high percentage of infections. The only action recently taken is to reduce private gatherings down as that is where most of the infections are coming from.

Only you think that is actually possible to eradicate Covid19. Most epidemiologists and infectious disease experts have said that lockdowns would never realistically achieve this or the collateral damage will be much worse. They are having us social distance and wear masks to maintain a so called slow burn until a vaccine is approved and available because that is the easiest way to get to herd immunity without a high death count.
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fallap
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Re: Possibly of Everything Closing Down Across Northern Hemisphere in Fall 2020

Tue Sep 22, 2020 10:03 am

I sure don't hope so, as it would jeopardize my plans of studying abroad next semester :-(
Ex grease monkey buried head to toe inside an F-16M
Now studying Political Science
 
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readytotaxi
Posts: 7469
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Re: Possibly of Everything Closing Down Across Northern Hemisphere in Fall 2020

Tue Sep 22, 2020 6:19 pm

200,000 + now dead in the US. More than 6.8 million people are known to have been infected in the US, more than in any other country.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-54244515
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TTailedTiger
Posts: 2585
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Re: Possibly of Everything Closing Down Across Northern Hemisphere in Fall 2020

Wed Sep 23, 2020 12:46 am

readytotaxi wrote:
200,000 + now dead in the US. More than 6.8 million people are known to have been infected in the US, more than in any other country.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-54244515


Ok? The US population is 328 million. Posting raw numbers like that is completely disingenuous. That would be approximately 0.06% of the population. I do not want to destroy our economy for that.
 
Kent350787
Posts: 1470
Joined: Wed May 28, 2008 12:06 am

Re: Possibly of Everything Closing Down Across Northern Hemisphere in Fall 2020

Wed Sep 23, 2020 1:12 am

TTailedTiger wrote:
readytotaxi wrote:
200,000 + now dead in the US. More than 6.8 million people are known to have been infected in the US, more than in any other country.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-54244515


Ok? The US population is 328 million. Posting raw numbers like that is completely disingenuous. That would be approximately 0.06% of the population. I do not want to destroy our economy for that.


Perhaps a little disingenuous. Maybe the poster could talk about the daily number of deaths, for which only India is higher but has almost 4x the population. Or the death rate, where Belgium and Spain (both hit very hard in the first wave) are the only developed countries with higher rates overall.

Apart from how cheap life is generally in the US compared with other developed countries, there is little excuse for the extremely poor national response. Extreme politicisation of a pandemic is just a way to kill people.

To be fair, ther UK has performed very porrly as well.
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