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GalaxyFlyer
Posts: 8591
Joined: Fri Jan 01, 2016 4:44 am

Re: Possibly of Everything Closing Down Across Northern Hemisphere in Fall 2020

Wed Sep 30, 2020 9:35 pm

Hilarious because the “blue model” is all about telling how to live, about lockdowns, about “we’re smarter than you, deplorable”— then we see the blue emperor stands stark naked.
 
Newark727
Posts: 2609
Joined: Tue Dec 29, 2009 6:42 pm

Re: Possibly of Everything Closing Down Across Northern Hemisphere in Fall 2020

Wed Sep 30, 2020 9:38 pm

GalaxyFlyer wrote:
Hilarious because the “blue model” is all about telling how to live, about lockdowns, about “we’re smarter than you, deplorable”— then we see the blue emperor stands stark naked.


You have completely lost your objectivity, as well as any realistic grasp of cause and effect. You have also mistaken "what Fox News tells me liberals think like" for what liberals actually think like.
 
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casinterest
Posts: 14168
Joined: Sat Feb 12, 2005 5:30 am

Re: Possibly of Everything Closing Down Across Northern Hemisphere in Fall 2020

Wed Sep 30, 2020 9:39 pm

GalaxyFlyer wrote:
Hilarious because the “blue model” is all about telling how to live, about lockdowns, about “we’re smarter than you, deplorable”— then we see the blue emperor stands stark naked.



It's all about Money instead of lives for the Trump acolytes.
 
Newark727
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Joined: Tue Dec 29, 2009 6:42 pm

Re: Possibly of Everything Closing Down Across Northern Hemisphere in Fall 2020

Wed Sep 30, 2020 9:47 pm

Also, I guess we're just totally ignoring Texas, Florida, and half the friggin' planet now, because we have to if we're going to pretend this is a blue state problem.
 
TTailedTiger
Posts: 2953
Joined: Sun Aug 26, 2018 5:19 am

Re: Possibly of Everything Closing Down Across Northern Hemisphere in Fall 2020

Thu Oct 01, 2020 12:11 am

Newark727 wrote:
GalaxyFlyer wrote:
1% of US counties with 18.4% of the population accounted for 39% of the deaths from COVID. Hilariously, just about everyone of those counties are and have been run by Democrats in very blue states. Also, those counties account for a large percentage of black murders. If you think that’s incompetent government, change it.


I'm not sure what's "hilarious" about this, unless you're almost sociopathically spiteful of other people.


Because by and large they seem to do the most complaining and finger pointing. All of the police violence in recent months has also come from Democrat strongholds as well. Yet they blame everyone else. Take responsibility for your problems.
 
TTailedTiger
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Joined: Sun Aug 26, 2018 5:19 am

Re: Possibly of Everything Closing Down Across Northern Hemisphere in Fall 2020

Thu Oct 01, 2020 12:13 am

casinterest wrote:
GalaxyFlyer wrote:
Hilarious because the “blue model” is all about telling how to live, about lockdowns, about “we’re smarter than you, deplorable”— then we see the blue emperor stands stark naked.



It's all about Money instead of lives for the Trump acolytes.


No. It's about the vast majority of the population that will never even have a symptom of the virus. There is no need to put the entire planet in an economic tailspin to save a fraction of a percentage of lives.
 
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Aaron747
Posts: 16523
Joined: Thu Aug 07, 2003 2:07 am

Re: Possibly of Everything Closing Down Across Northern Hemisphere in Fall 2020

Thu Oct 01, 2020 12:24 am

TTailedTiger wrote:
casinterest wrote:
GalaxyFlyer wrote:
Hilarious because the “blue model” is all about telling how to live, about lockdowns, about “we’re smarter than you, deplorable”— then we see the blue emperor stands stark naked.



It's all about Money instead of lives for the Trump acolytes.


No. It's about the vast majority of the population that will never even have a symptom of the virus. There is no need to put the entire planet in an economic tailspin to save a fraction of a percentage of lives.


Major corporations were the first to voluntarily reduce travel and make changes to protocols before widespread government action. Because they are more competent at management, they recognized mitigation steps were key to retain normal function.
With a novel infectious agent, nobody knew what the end stage looks like.

The proper response would have been, for example, a G20 initiative this summer stating total coordination and alignment of mitigation including mask-wearing and triage guidance. People are apt to behave a certain way when not receiving any conflicting information. Incompetent leadership caused the tailspin - there’s no other way around it.
 
TTailedTiger
Posts: 2953
Joined: Sun Aug 26, 2018 5:19 am

Re: Possibly of Everything Closing Down Across Northern Hemisphere in Fall 2020

Thu Oct 01, 2020 1:56 am

Aaron747 wrote:
TTailedTiger wrote:
casinterest wrote:


It's all about Money instead of lives for the Trump acolytes.


No. It's about the vast majority of the population that will never even have a symptom of the virus. There is no need to put the entire planet in an economic tailspin to save a fraction of a percentage of lives.


Major corporations were the first to voluntarily reduce travel and make changes to protocols before widespread government action. Because they are more competent at management, they recognized mitigation steps were key to retain normal function.
With a novel infectious agent, nobody knew what the end stage looks like.

The proper response would have been, for example, a G20 initiative this summer stating total coordination and alignment of mitigation including mask-wearing and triage guidance. People are apt to behave a certain way when not receiving any conflicting information. Incompetent leadership caused the tailspin - there’s no other way around it.


Oh? And who would be in charge of enforcing such global measures? What would the consequences be if a sovereign nation disagreed with them?
 
Waterbomber2
Posts: 1469
Joined: Mon Feb 04, 2019 3:44 am

Re: Possibly of Everything Closing Down Across Northern Hemisphere in Fall 2020

Thu Oct 01, 2020 2:53 am

3 weeks ago, I predicted that this week is when we would see major lockdowns being announced.
So far, affected nations are avoiding nationwide lockdowns at the cost of rising daily infections, which will inevitably result in additional deaths weeks or months later.

The Netherlands is seeing a spike in cases with the government growing uneasy.
I've been to Paris, France yesterday and people are out like there's nothing to worry about. Traffic jams all over the place.

The question now is, when will they hit the panic button?
This is a dangerous point in the curve. The graphs only tell us the story of how things were 2 weeks ago, so take those graphs and extend them, and you should start to see how dire the situation really is already.

I'm starting to worry that where governments were able to barely control the situation or slightly lost control in the first wave, the second wave will hit so bad in the middle of the cold season that a lockdown will come too late and we may see numbers like 30% of populations being infected.

According to my projections, real life (not reported) infections in the Netherlands should be at about 15.000 per day right now, or 0.1% of the population per day, or about 3% of all the Dutch per month.
However, this is doubling every 7-10 days so by the end of October, Covid could be spreading at a rate of 12-24% of the population per month, reaching levels similar to the flu.
How are they going to handle all the cases when over 10% of the population is infected and tens of thousands of people will need ICU care?

It may already be too late.
 
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lightsaber
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Posts: 23102
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Re: Possibly of Everything Closing Down Across Northern Hemisphere in Fall 2020

Thu Oct 01, 2020 3:04 am

Waterbomber2 wrote:
3 weeks ago, I predicted that this week is when we would see major lockdowns being announced.
So far, affected nations are avoiding nationwide lockdowns at the cost of rising daily infections, which will inevitably result in additional deaths weeks or months later.

The Netherlands is seeing a spike in cases with the government growing uneasy.
I've been to Paris, France yesterday and people are out like there's nothing to worry about. Traffic jams all over the place.

The question now is, when will they hit the panic button?
This is a dangerous point in the curve. The graphs only tell us the story of how things were 2 weeks ago, so take those graphs and extend them, and you should start to see how dire the situation really is already.

I'm starting to worry that where governments were able to barely control the situation or slightly lost control in the first wave, the second wave will hit so bad in the middle of the cold season that a lockdown will come too late and we may see numbers like 30% of populations being infected.

According to my projections, real life (not reported) infections in the Netherlands should be at about 15.000 per day right now, or 0.1% of the population per day, or about 3% of all the Dutch per month.
However, this is doubling every 7-10 days so by the end of October, Covid could be spreading at a rate of 12-24% of the population per month, reaching levels similar to the flu.
How are they going to handle all the cases when over 10% of the population is infected and tens of thousands of people will need ICU care?

It may already be too late.

You make a good point. However, there us such a delay I think the graphs show how it was four to sux weeks ago.


It rakes 4 to 10 days to feel sick.
4 to 10 days to get over denial and be tested, a day ir two to get results. My sister is a doctor in a Covid19 ward and it takes 4 to 7 days after she posts data to see it show up in the charts.

So 12 to 27 days for bad cases. Most people have a mild case, so I double that figure. I'm fairly sure I did have it in January, but mild cases don't produce anti-bodies...

The bad thing us flu+Covid19. Unfortunately, flu season will be interesting in a bad way.

There isn't much to handle for healthy people unless they also catch the flu. My sister only sees healthy people if they had undiagnosed heart trouble or the flu and Covid19. Otherwise mostly obese and people who are obviously unhealthy.

Lightsaber

PS, I see the Netherlands has 3,000 official cases per day. Based on what I've seen, that is more like 30,000 infections per day as I know it went through a nearby street and only one bad case and when she was diagnosed most went, that's it? With all the media bunk, most cannot believe their mild illness was the dreaded Coronavirus. It is bad in some people, but not most.
 
ArchGuy1
Topic Author
Posts: 1957
Joined: Wed Jul 10, 2019 11:35 pm

Re: Possibly of Everything Closing Down Across Northern Hemisphere in Fall 2020

Thu Oct 01, 2020 3:18 am

lightsaber wrote:
Waterbomber2 wrote:
3 weeks ago, I predicted that this week is when we would see major lockdowns being announced.
So far, affected nations are avoiding nationwide lockdowns at the cost of rising daily infections, which will inevitably result in additional deaths weeks or months later.

The Netherlands is seeing a spike in cases with the government growing uneasy.
I've been to Paris, France yesterday and people are out like there's nothing to worry about. Traffic jams all over the place.

The question now is, when will they hit the panic button?
This is a dangerous point in the curve. The graphs only tell us the story of how things were 2 weeks ago, so take those graphs and extend them, and you should start to see how dire the situation really is already.

I'm starting to worry that where governments were able to barely control the situation or slightly lost control in the first wave, the second wave will hit so bad in the middle of the cold season that a lockdown will come too late and we may see numbers like 30% of populations being infected.

According to my projections, real life (not reported) infections in the Netherlands should be at about 15.000 per day right now, or 0.1% of the population per day, or about 3% of all the Dutch per month.
However, this is doubling every 7-10 days so by the end of October, Covid could be spreading at a rate of 12-24% of the population per month, reaching levels similar to the flu.
How are they going to handle all the cases when over 10% of the population is infected and tens of thousands of people will need ICU care?

It may already be too late.

You make a good point. However, there us such a delay I think the graphs show how it was four to sux weeks ago.


It rakes 4 to 10 days to feel sick.
4 to 10 days to get over denial and be tested, a day ir two to get results. My sister is a doctor in a Covid19 ward and it takes 4 to 7 days after she posts data to see it show up in the charts.

So 12 to 27 days for bad cases. Most people have a mild case, so I double that figure. I'm fairly sure I did have it in January, but mild cases don't produce anti-bodies...

The bad thing us flu+Covid19. Unfortunately, flu season will be interesting in a bad way.

There isn't much to handle for healthy people unless they also catch the flu. My sister only sees healthy people if they had undiagnosed heart trouble or the flu and Covid19. Otherwise mostly obese and people who are obviously unhealthy.

Lightsaber

PS, I see the Netherlands has 3,000 official cases per day. Based on what I've seen, that is more like 30,000 infections per day as I know it went through a nearby street and only one bad case and when she was diagnosed most went, that's it? With all the media bunk, most cannot believe their mild illness was the dreaded Coronavirus. It is bad in some people, but not most.

Would not be surprised if Europe, the Middle East, North America, India, and China shut down again in about November.
 
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Aaron747
Posts: 16523
Joined: Thu Aug 07, 2003 2:07 am

Re: Possibly of Everything Closing Down Across Northern Hemisphere in Fall 2020

Thu Oct 01, 2020 3:47 am

TTailedTiger wrote:
Aaron747 wrote:
TTailedTiger wrote:

No. It's about the vast majority of the population that will never even have a symptom of the virus. There is no need to put the entire planet in an economic tailspin to save a fraction of a percentage of lives.


Major corporations were the first to voluntarily reduce travel and make changes to protocols before widespread government action. Because they are more competent at management, they recognized mitigation steps were key to retain normal function.
With a novel infectious agent, nobody knew what the end stage looks like.

The proper response would have been, for example, a G20 initiative this summer stating total coordination and alignment of mitigation including mask-wearing and triage guidance. People are apt to behave a certain way when not receiving any conflicting information. Incompetent leadership caused the tailspin - there’s no other way around it.


Oh? And who would be in charge of enforcing such global measures? What would the consequences be if a sovereign nation disagreed with them?


Talking about leadership here - make the parameters win-win and get buy-in. Obviously countries wanting to risk prolonged economic malaise are free to not sign an agreement or treaty.
 
Toenga
Posts: 315
Joined: Thu Jan 23, 2020 2:55 am

Re: Possibly of Everything Closing Down Across Northern Hemisphere in Fall 2020

Thu Oct 01, 2020 4:01 am

lightsaber wrote:
Lockdown fatigue has hit. This happens.


I hope we avoid a shutdown. There will be more deaths due to depression than this illness, in my opinion.

I think we can mostly open up. I'm going to a Thanksgiving dinner and I'm flying there! But with face shields and a mask for in flight.

Lightsaber


Well 200000 have died in the US already under under the current restrictions, and whilst the death toll has slowed it is still running at substantial rate.
For the death toll from depression to outrun this you must be living in a massively sad place.
 
tommy1808
Posts: 14691
Joined: Thu Nov 21, 2013 3:24 pm

Re: Possibly of Everything Closing Down Across Northern Hemisphere in Fall 2020

Thu Oct 01, 2020 5:49 am

TTailedTiger wrote:
Aaron747 wrote:
TTailedTiger wrote:

No. It's about the vast majority of the population that will never even have a symptom of the virus. There is no need to put the entire planet in an economic tailspin to save a fraction of a percentage of lives.


Major corporations were the first to voluntarily reduce travel and make changes to protocols before widespread government action. Because they are more competent at management, they recognized mitigation steps were key to retain normal function.
With a novel infectious agent, nobody knew what the end stage looks like.

The proper response would have been, for example, a G20 initiative this summer stating total coordination and alignment of mitigation including mask-wearing and triage guidance. People are apt to behave a certain way when not receiving any conflicting information. Incompetent leadership caused the tailspin - there’s no other way around it.


Oh? And who would be in charge of enforcing such global measures? What would the consequences be if a sovereign nation disagreed with them?


there is this concept called "border", that may be handy if a sovereign nation decides to go for gross negligence manslaughter on a massive scale.

best regards
Thomas
 
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casinterest
Posts: 14168
Joined: Sat Feb 12, 2005 5:30 am

Re: Possibly of Everything Closing Down Across Northern Hemisphere in Fall 2020

Thu Oct 01, 2020 2:30 pm

Toenga wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
Lockdown fatigue has hit. This happens.


I hope we avoid a shutdown. There will be more deaths due to depression than this illness, in my opinion.

I think we can mostly open up. I'm going to a Thanksgiving dinner and I'm flying there! But with face shields and a mask for in flight.

Lightsaber


Well 200000 have died in the US already under under the current restrictions, and whilst the death toll has slowed it is still running at substantial rate.
For the death toll from depression to outrun this you must be living in a massively sad place.



I still predict Middle October will be a game changer in the US. We are starting to see the creep, and with many states opening up schools a bit more, and businesses indoors it is a time creep.

The flip side is that if people manage to stay home, many businesses will suffer such as restaurants , movie theatres, bars, and the transportation industry.
 
ArchGuy1
Topic Author
Posts: 1957
Joined: Wed Jul 10, 2019 11:35 pm

Re: Possibly of Everything Closing Down Across Northern Hemisphere in Fall 2020

Thu Oct 01, 2020 5:00 pm

lightsaber wrote:
Waterbomber2 wrote:
3 weeks ago, I predicted that this week is when we would see major lockdowns being announced.
So far, affected nations are avoiding nationwide lockdowns at the cost of rising daily infections, which will inevitably result in additional deaths weeks or months later.

The Netherlands is seeing a spike in cases with the government growing uneasy.
I've been to Paris, France yesterday and people are out like there's nothing to worry about. Traffic jams all over the place.

The question now is, when will they hit the panic button?
This is a dangerous point in the curve. The graphs only tell us the story of how things were 2 weeks ago, so take those graphs and extend them, and you should start to see how dire the situation really is already.

I'm starting to worry that where governments were able to barely control the situation or slightly lost control in the first wave, the second wave will hit so bad in the middle of the cold season that a lockdown will come too late and we may see numbers like 30% of populations being infected.

According to my projections, real life (not reported) infections in the Netherlands should be at about 15.000 per day right now, or 0.1% of the population per day, or about 3% of all the Dutch per month.
However, this is doubling every 7-10 days so by the end of October, Covid could be spreading at a rate of 12-24% of the population per month, reaching levels similar to the flu.
How are they going to handle all the cases when over 10% of the population is infected and tens of thousands of people will need ICU care?

It may already be too late.

You make a good point. However, there us such a delay I think the graphs show how it was four to sux weeks ago.


It rakes 4 to 10 days to feel sick.
4 to 10 days to get over denial and be tested, a day ir two to get results. My sister is a doctor in a Covid19 ward and it takes 4 to 7 days after she posts data to see it show up in the charts.

So 12 to 27 days for bad cases. Most people have a mild case, so I double that figure. I'm fairly sure I did have it in January, but mild cases don't produce anti-bodies...

The bad thing us flu+Covid19. Unfortunately, flu season will be interesting in a bad way.

There isn't much to handle for healthy people unless they also catch the flu. My sister only sees healthy people if they had undiagnosed heart trouble or the flu and Covid19. Otherwise mostly obese and people who are obviously unhealthy.

Lightsaber

PS, I see the Netherlands has 3,000 official cases per day. Based on what I've seen, that is more like 30,000 infections per day as I know it went through a nearby street and only one bad case and when she was diagnosed most went, that's it? With all the media bunk, most cannot believe their mild illness was the dreaded Coronavirus. It is bad in some people, but not most.

It is possible that New York State might handle a potential spike in cases this fall and winter differently than the spring.
https://buffalonews.com/news/local/how- ... 96399.html
 
SCQ83
Posts: 5892
Joined: Wed Oct 03, 2012 8:32 pm

Re: Possibly of Everything Closing Down Across Northern Hemisphere in Fall 2020

Sat Oct 03, 2020 8:44 am

Waterbomber2 wrote:
I was able to predict a lockdown 4 weeks ahead in March, I was off by 1 day.
Nobody at my workplace believed me until it was announced, 2 days before it came into effect.

In August I was bang on about local closures of business.

My prediction:
A good part of Europe will be in lockdown in October already. This will be a soft lockdown, with non-essentials closed, but people still allowed to go out for a stroll. Look at blanket school closures as signs of an imminent lock down.
Spain said that they wouldn't lock it down, but they, France and Portugal will probably be the first to go into lockdowns and that could be the week of September 28th.


Ehhh no.
 
Waterbomber2
Posts: 1469
Joined: Mon Feb 04, 2019 3:44 am

Re: Possibly of Everything Closing Down Across Northern Hemisphere in Fall 2020

Sat Oct 03, 2020 10:55 pm

SCQ83 wrote:
Waterbomber2 wrote:
I was able to predict a lockdown 4 weeks ahead in March, I was off by 1 day.
Nobody at my workplace believed me until it was announced, 2 days before it came into effect.

In August I was bang on about local closures of business.

My prediction:
A good part of Europe will be in lockdown in October already. This will be a soft lockdown, with non-essentials closed, but people still allowed to go out for a stroll. Look at blanket school closures as signs of an imminent lock down.
Spain said that they wouldn't lock it down, but they, France and Portugal will probably be the first to go into lockdowns and that could be the week of September 28th.


Ehhh no.


Yes I was wrong.
I overestimated the politicians' sense of responsibility.
With record infection numbers in these countries, they should have gone into widespread lockdowns and not localised lockdowns like Madrid.
Paris is a red zone and yet everybody is out and acting like there is nothing going on.

I guess that they all bought into Trump's "we got to keep our economy open" mantra. Let's see where following a fool will take them.
Because it is proven now, that he's a fool.
 
ArchGuy1
Topic Author
Posts: 1957
Joined: Wed Jul 10, 2019 11:35 pm

Re: Possibly of Everything Closing Down Across Northern Hemisphere in Fall 2020

Sat Oct 03, 2020 11:17 pm

Waterbomber2 wrote:
SCQ83 wrote:
Waterbomber2 wrote:
I was able to predict a lockdown 4 weeks ahead in March, I was off by 1 day.
Nobody at my workplace believed me until it was announced, 2 days before it came into effect.

In August I was bang on about local closures of business.

My prediction:
A good part of Europe will be in lockdown in October already. This will be a soft lockdown, with non-essentials closed, but people still allowed to go out for a stroll. Look at blanket school closures as signs of an imminent lock down.
Spain said that they wouldn't lock it down, but they, France and Portugal will probably be the first to go into lockdowns and that could be the week of September 28th.


Ehhh no.


Yes I was wrong.
I overestimated the politicians' sense of responsibility.
With record infection numbers in these countries, they should have gone into widespread lockdowns and not localised lockdowns like Madrid.
Paris is a red zone and yet everybody is out and acting like there is nothing going on.

I guess that they all bought into Trump's "we got to keep our economy open" mantra. Let's see where following a fool will take them.
Because it is proven now, that he's a fool.

Will Marseille soon be going on lockdown, since restaurants and bars are closed in that city?
 
94717
Posts: 2789
Joined: Tue Feb 06, 2007 3:38 am

Re: Possibly of Everything Closing Down Across Northern Hemisphere in Fall 2020

Tue Oct 06, 2020 2:44 pm

We will live corona until at least one more year. Hopefully risk groups will get access to vaccine april next year.

For me a strategy is something that can be kept during long time and that is not changed every 30 days.

In that perspective it is only a few countries that has actually got a strategy in my view. Today one of the countries with the most strict qurantine restrictions finland showed 30 cases per 100000. I suppose that their gample failed. Now it is soon only NZ left.
 
Waterbomber2
Posts: 1469
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Re: Possibly of Everything Closing Down Across Northern Hemisphere in Fall 2020

Tue Oct 13, 2020 5:43 pm

The Netherlands just announced a partial lockdown starting 10PM October 14th, for at least 4 weeks.

Translated summary of the measures:
-General closure of bars and restaurants, which will also inevitably lead to closures of hotels.
-No events are allowed to take place except congresses, trade fairs, theaters, competitions, public demonstrations
-Max. 3 visitors allowed in your household
-Masks required in all indoor public spaces and public transportation
-Work from home unless it's not an option
-Retail stores have to close by 8PM
-Between 8PM and 7am it's forbidden to sell, carry or consume alcohol and soft drugs in public
-Musea, libraries and monuments are to be visited upon reservation only
-Practicing teams sports of more than 4 people is not allowed except for pro sports
-Avoid travels

https://www.rijksoverheid.nl/actueel/ni ... te-dringen

The Netherlands announced over 7000 new infections today.

IMO, too little too late and they should see numbers surge to over 10.000 pretty soon.
With schools open, further spread is inevitable.

Emmanuel Macron will address France on Wednesday evening, a general curfew is expected to be announced.
Belgium has a press conference scheduled for Friday where similar restrictions could be announced.
 
ArchGuy1
Topic Author
Posts: 1957
Joined: Wed Jul 10, 2019 11:35 pm

Re: Possibly of Everything Closing Down Across Northern Hemisphere in Fall 2020

Wed Oct 14, 2020 6:57 pm

Paris and a number of other cities in France are going on a nighttime curfew from 9 pm to 6 am for four weeks starting on Saturday. This comes as COVID-19 cases are increasing dramatically and anyone breaking the curfew will face a fine of 135 euros with fines increasing for repeat offenses.
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.indepe ... html%3famp
 
SL1200MK2
Posts: 220
Joined: Sat Sep 06, 2008 11:00 pm

Re: Possibly of Everything Closing Down Across Northern Hemisphere in Fall 2020

Wed Oct 14, 2020 7:28 pm

ArchGuy1 wrote:
Paris and a number of other cities in France are going on a nighttime curfew from 9 pm to 6 am for four weeks starting on Saturday. This comes as COVID-19 cases are increasing dramatically and anyone breaking the curfew will face a fine of 135 euros with fines increasing for repeat offenses.
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.indepe ... html%3famp


Do you think that this will continue until next spring?
 
flyguy89
Posts: 3446
Joined: Tue Feb 24, 2009 6:43 pm

Re: Possibly of Everything Closing Down Across Northern Hemisphere in Fall 2020

Wed Oct 14, 2020 7:37 pm

ArchGuy1 wrote:
Paris and a number of other cities in France are going on a nighttime curfew from 9 pm to 6 am for four weeks starting on Saturday. This comes as COVID-19 cases are increasing dramatically and anyone breaking the curfew will face a fine of 135 euros with fines increasing for repeat offenses.
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.indepe ... html%3famp

I really fail to see how a curfew could reduce transmission. In the US, the go-to playbook that has shown to work in a number of states is cutting restaurant capacity, closing bars/gyms and implementing mask mandates.
 
bennett123
Posts: 10881
Joined: Sun Aug 15, 2004 12:49 am

Re: Possibly of Everything Closing Down Across Northern Hemisphere in Fall 2020

Wed Oct 14, 2020 8:45 pm

If the UK is anything to go by, mandating face coverings and distancing is one thing. Getting people to actually do it is quite another.
 
Waterbomber2
Posts: 1469
Joined: Mon Feb 04, 2019 3:44 am

Re: Possibly of Everything Closing Down Across Northern Hemisphere in Fall 2020

Wed Oct 14, 2020 9:47 pm

flyguy89 wrote:
ArchGuy1 wrote:
Paris and a number of other cities in France are going on a nighttime curfew from 9 pm to 6 am for four weeks starting on Saturday. This comes as COVID-19 cases are increasing dramatically and anyone breaking the curfew will face a fine of 135 euros with fines increasing for repeat offenses.
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.indepe ... html%3famp

I really fail to see how a curfew could reduce transmission. In the US, the go-to playbook that has shown to work in a number of states is cutting restaurant capacity, closing bars/gyms and implementing mask mandates.



It doesn't work.
In the spring with lockdowns we saw that even keeping only essential facilities open still kept numbers creeping up months later after the restrictions came into effect because people managed to infect each other in grocery stores, in illegal parties, while taking a stroll for a breath of fresh air, at physicians's practices, pharmacies, etc... and then taking it home to infect their families.
Reducing restaurant capacity doesn't work either. Waiters still get to your table, come close to put dishes on your table, clean up after you ate, get infected, infect kitchen staff, who touch the food and infect future guests, and the cycle goes on.

At this point governments are more concerned with keeping the economy going than saving lives.
According to a poll taken by a Belgian newspaper, the general population is willing to accept stringent lockdowns, more than the politicians, simply because politicians answer to the top few % whose business interests get affected adversely during lockdowns.

Look at the ridiculously high numbers posted in France for Wednesday: over 22000 new confirmed infections in a single day.
I followed Macron's interview-format press conference and all I can say is that his little curfew is pointless and at this point he's a clown, much like his American counterparty.
If we have to rely on these clowns to get us out of this, we'll be in the same situation in 5 years, maybe even 10 years.
 
ArchGuy1
Topic Author
Posts: 1957
Joined: Wed Jul 10, 2019 11:35 pm

Re: Possibly of Everything Closing Down Across Northern Hemisphere in Fall 2020

Thu Oct 15, 2020 1:39 am

Waterbomber2 wrote:
flyguy89 wrote:
ArchGuy1 wrote:
Paris and a number of other cities in France are going on a nighttime curfew from 9 pm to 6 am for four weeks starting on Saturday. This comes as COVID-19 cases are increasing dramatically and anyone breaking the curfew will face a fine of 135 euros with fines increasing for repeat offenses.
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.indepe ... html%3famp

I really fail to see how a curfew could reduce transmission. In the US, the go-to playbook that has shown to work in a number of states is cutting restaurant capacity, closing bars/gyms and implementing mask mandates.



It doesn't work.
In the spring with lockdowns we saw that even keeping only essential facilities open still kept numbers creeping up months later after the restrictions came into effect because people managed to infect each other in grocery stores, in illegal parties, while taking a stroll for a breath of fresh air, at physicians's practices, pharmacies, etc... and then taking it home to infect their families.
Reducing restaurant capacity doesn't work either. Waiters still get to your table, come close to put dishes on your table, clean up after you ate, get infected, infect kitchen staff, who touch the food and infect future guests, and the cycle goes on.

At this point governments are more concerned with keeping the economy going than saving lives.
According to a poll taken by a Belgian newspaper, the general population is willing to accept stringent lockdowns, more than the politicians, simply because politicians answer to the top few % whose business interests get affected adversely during lockdowns.

Look at the ridiculously high numbers posted in France for Wednesday: over 22000 new confirmed infections in a single day.
I followed Macron's interview-format press conference and all I can say is that his little curfew is pointless and at this point he's a clown, much like his American counterparty.
If we have to rely on these clowns to get us out of this, we'll be in the same situation in 5 years, maybe even 10 years.

Will France go on lockdown in a few weeks?
 
StarAC17
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Re: Possibly of Everything Closing Down Across Northern Hemisphere in Fall 2020

Thu Oct 15, 2020 1:52 am

In the spring with lockdowns we saw that even keeping only essential facilities open still kept numbers creeping up months later after the restrictions came into effect because people managed to infect each other in grocery stores, in illegal parties, while taking a stroll for a breath of fresh air, at physicians's practices, pharmacies, etc... and then taking it home to infect their families.
Reducing restaurant capacity doesn't work either. Waiters still get to your table, come close to put dishes on your table, clean up after you ate, get infected, infect kitchen staff, who touch the food and infect future guests, and the cycle goes on.


This might be a Europe thing.

In Canada there have been minimal community spread from outdoor activities, grocery stores (a few employees have been infected here and there but no patrons), nothing really at doctors offices. I will give you illegal parties and restaurants, also adding in non-customer facing workplaces that may ignore the rules and those people taking it home, this is going to happen unless you are going to seal people in pods. Does this level of spread go beyond contact tracing is the question?

As for restaurants most of the infections have been from staff interacting with each other in the back where they might not let their guard down, the masks come off and the social distancing need not apply here.
It isn't coming from staff to patrons or patron to patron. Fomite transmission of covid-19 is no greater than any other virus so if dishes and cutlery are washed correctly and tables are wiped down then there is limited vectors of spread and purell is everywhere. On my side of the pond and my observances this is limited.

At this point governments are more concerned with keeping the economy going than saving lives.
According to a poll taken by a Belgian newspaper, the general population is willing to accept stringent lockdowns, more than the politicians, simply because politicians answer to the top few % whose business interests get affected adversely during lockdowns.


Provided the virus stays away from people over 60 people aren't dying at the levels seen in the spring so I think the level of lives saved depends more on protocols rather than lockdown. For a healthy individual under 60 the chances of dying are comparable to the flu and even less so. This virus is not going to suddenly start killing the young and healthy now. I think the acts of governments now might be to keep them to 4 weeks and not two months.

Furthermore has it occurred to you that the lockdowns might cost more lives than they save. Yes Covid is bad but you know what is up, suicides, drug overdoses, domestic violence, food insecurity and poverty, all up in 2020.

Again it might be a Europe thing but the big business interests on this side of the pond are probably chomping at the bit for another lockdown. All the big retailers (Amazon, Walmart, Costco, Target etc. ) are essential and will remain open and their profits will skyrocket again. All the independent small businesses will be crippled giving them more market share.
 
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Francoflier
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Re: Possibly of Everything Closing Down Across Northern Hemisphere in Fall 2020

Thu Oct 15, 2020 7:18 am

Waterbomber2 wrote:
flyguy89 wrote:
ArchGuy1 wrote:
Paris and a number of other cities in France are going on a nighttime curfew from 9 pm to 6 am for four weeks starting on Saturday. This comes as COVID-19 cases are increasing dramatically and anyone breaking the curfew will face a fine of 135 euros with fines increasing for repeat offenses.
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.indepe ... html%3famp

I really fail to see how a curfew could reduce transmission. In the US, the go-to playbook that has shown to work in a number of states is cutting restaurant capacity, closing bars/gyms and implementing mask mandates.



It doesn't work.
In the spring with lockdowns we saw that even keeping only essential facilities open still kept numbers creeping up months later after the restrictions came into effect because people managed to infect each other in grocery stores, in illegal parties, while taking a stroll for a breath of fresh air, at physicians's practices, pharmacies, etc... and then taking it home to infect their families.
Reducing restaurant capacity doesn't work either. Waiters still get to your table, come close to put dishes on your table, clean up after you ate, get infected, infect kitchen staff, who touch the food and infect future guests, and the cycle goes on.

At this point governments are more concerned with keeping the economy going than saving lives.
According to a poll taken by a Belgian newspaper, the general population is willing to accept stringent lockdowns, more than the politicians, simply because politicians answer to the top few % whose business interests get affected adversely during lockdowns.

Look at the ridiculously high numbers posted in France for Wednesday: over 22000 new confirmed infections in a single day.
I followed Macron's interview-format press conference and all I can say is that his little curfew is pointless and at this point he's a clown, much like his American counterparty.
If we have to rely on these clowns to get us out of this, we'll be in the same situation in 5 years, maybe even 10 years.


Again with the drama, the unfounded accusations and your ridiculous notion that we can just lock every soul on the planet home for 3 months and call it a day....
Life is unfortunately a little more complicated than you imagine.

First of all, the severity of the measures should be based on the actual damage caused by the spread, as in the number of critical cases and casualties. This is how it works for every disease (hint, Covid is actually not the only disease that kills people, despite what the mediatic deluge could lead some to believe...). Judging by the number of cases only is an ineffectual way of quantifying and qualifying the issue given that it is dependent on testing regime alone, which itself only catches a fraction of actual infections in any case.
Secondly, the reaction should be based on preserving healthcare capacity, not some nonsensical notion of stopping the virus dead in its tracks, which is not going to happen.

As for the ridiculous notion that leaders only answer to business interests well, again, I'd love to live in your simplistic World.
In social nations like Belgium, France or most of Western Europe, the cost of reduced economic activity is borne by society at large. It's one thing that you are willing to cripple businesses, but you're not the one who is going to have to pick up the bill for the disastrous economic consequences since it is unlikely that taxes can be raised enough to sustain the level of welfare necessary to cope with the amount of unemployed these tough measures will create. Managing a society is the art of compromise.

By the way, mask mandates and distancing measures in restaurants do work. They have been working in Asia since the start of the pandemic.
The issue in the West lies with the level of adoption of these practices by the population, or lack thereof. Still not a reason to shut everything down unless hospitals become overwhelmed again.

Finally, the virus will continue spreading in waves as every other viruses do. If Europe is any indication so far, the secondary waves are less severe than the first. Science will eventually catch up to it and help minimize its nastier effects.

The fear and panic surrounding the virus are causing much more damages than the virus itself. The hundreds of millions around the World slated to fall below the poverty line as a consequences of shutting everything down will likely be enough to increase the mortality as an indirect consequences of poverty well above Covid deaths in the years to come.
 
Waterbomber2
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Re: Possibly of Everything Closing Down Across Northern Hemisphere in Fall 2020

Thu Oct 15, 2020 3:33 pm

Francoflier wrote:
Waterbomber2 wrote:
flyguy89 wrote:
I really fail to see how a curfew could reduce transmission. In the US, the go-to playbook that has shown to work in a number of states is cutting restaurant capacity, closing bars/gyms and implementing mask mandates.



It doesn't work.
In the spring with lockdowns we saw that even keeping only essential facilities open still kept numbers creeping up months later after the restrictions came into effect because people managed to infect each other in grocery stores, in illegal parties, while taking a stroll for a breath of fresh air, at physicians's practices, pharmacies, etc... and then taking it home to infect their families.
Reducing restaurant capacity doesn't work either. Waiters still get to your table, come close to put dishes on your table, clean up after you ate, get infected, infect kitchen staff, who touch the food and infect future guests, and the cycle goes on.

At this point governments are more concerned with keeping the economy going than saving lives.
According to a poll taken by a Belgian newspaper, the general population is willing to accept stringent lockdowns, more than the politicians, simply because politicians answer to the top few % whose business interests get affected adversely during lockdowns.

Look at the ridiculously high numbers posted in France for Wednesday: over 22000 new confirmed infections in a single day.
I followed Macron's interview-format press conference and all I can say is that his little curfew is pointless and at this point he's a clown, much like his American counterparty.
If we have to rely on these clowns to get us out of this, we'll be in the same situation in 5 years, maybe even 10 years.


Again with the drama, the unfounded accusations and your ridiculous notion that we can just lock every soul on the planet home for 3 months and call it a day....
Life is unfortunately a little more complicated than you imagine.

First of all, the severity of the measures should be based on the actual damage caused by the spread, as in the number of critical cases and casualties. This is how it works for every disease (hint, Covid is actually not the only disease that kills people, despite what the mediatic deluge could lead some to believe...). Judging by the number of cases only is an ineffectual way of quantifying and qualifying the issue given that it is dependent on testing regime alone, which itself only catches a fraction of actual infections in any case.
Secondly, the reaction should be based on preserving healthcare capacity, not some nonsensical notion of stopping the virus dead in its tracks, which is not going to happen.

As for the ridiculous notion that leaders only answer to business interests well, again, I'd love to live in your simplistic World.
In social nations like Belgium, France or most of Western Europe, the cost of reduced economic activity is borne by society at large. It's one thing that you are willing to cripple businesses, but you're not the one who is going to have to pick up the bill for the disastrous economic consequences since it is unlikely that taxes can be raised enough to sustain the level of welfare necessary to cope with the amount of unemployed these tough measures will create. Managing a society is the art of compromise.

By the way, mask mandates and distancing measures in restaurants do work. They have been working in Asia since the start of the pandemic.
The issue in the West lies with the level of adoption of these practices by the population, or lack thereof. Still not a reason to shut everything down unless hospitals become overwhelmed again.

Finally, the virus will continue spreading in waves as every other viruses do. If Europe is any indication so far, the secondary waves are less severe than the first. Science will eventually catch up to it and help minimize its nastier effects.

The fear and panic surrounding the virus are causing much more damages than the virus itself. The hundreds of millions around the World slated to fall below the poverty line as a consequences of shutting everything down will likely be enough to increase the mortality as an indirect consequences of poverty well above Covid deaths in the years to come.


I'll try to speak the same languages as you.
Yes, the fear and panic are causing damage, so we need to end the fear and panic asap.
A lockdown to zero will bring consumers out and end this in the shortest time.

Curfews will have no effect at all on the spread of Covid and no one is stupid enough to believe otherwise.
Restaurant visits will still take place, people will just take earlier reservations.
University students will keep hosting their parties in the dorms, no one can stop that.
Open schools are pools of infection althoughy governments want to stay in denial about it. Infections stayed low into September until they reopened schools. This is most noticeable in Italy where schools opened later than the rest of Europe.

Lockdowns are the only proven method that works. They are what lead to reopenings in the summer.

Mask mandates and social distancing are not what is working in Asia's restaurant business, empty restaurants are.
People are not dining out as much as before, restaurants are going belly up.

https://english.kyodonews.net/news/2020 ... virus.html


If we continue like this, the economies will be strangled slowly to a potentially deep depression and the damage will be much worse than if we go for a short and strict lock down.
Many people are sheltering already. Look at your own habits. Do you still go to restaurants, shops, etc... as often?

I don't know what it is that people are so afraid about with lockdowns?
Staying in the comfort of your home with your family. That is a blessing if you ask me.
Governments are conditioning people against lockdowns, you are being manipulated.
Last edited by Waterbomber2 on Thu Oct 15, 2020 3:40 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
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fallap
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Re: Possibly of Everything Closing Down Across Northern Hemisphere in Fall 2020

Thu Oct 15, 2020 3:40 pm

ArchGuy1 wrote:
Paris and a number of other cities in France are going on a nighttime curfew from 9 pm to 6 am for four weeks starting on Saturday. This comes as COVID-19 cases are increasing dramatically and anyone breaking the curfew will face a fine of 135 euros with fines increasing for repeat offenses.
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.indepe ... html%3famp


Well, so much for liberté I guess.
 
stratosphere
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Re: Possibly of Everything Closing Down Across Northern Hemisphere in Fall 2020

Thu Oct 15, 2020 4:26 pm

Waterbomber2 wrote:
SCQ83 wrote:
Waterbomber2 wrote:
I was able to predict a lockdown 4 weeks ahead in March, I was off by 1 day.
Nobody at my workplace believed me until it was announced, 2 days before it came into effect.

In August I was bang on about local closures of business.

My prediction:
A good part of Europe will be in lockdown in October already. This will be a soft lockdown, with non-essentials closed, but people still allowed to go out for a stroll. Look at blanket school closures as signs of an imminent lock down.
Spain said that they wouldn't lock it down, but they, France and Portugal will probably be the first to go into lockdowns and that could be the week of September 28th.


Ehhh no.


Yes I was wrong.
I overestimated the politicians' sense of responsibility.
With record infection numbers in these countries, they should have gone into widespread lockdowns and not localised lockdowns like Madrid.
Paris is a red zone and yet everybody is out and acting like there is nothing going on.

I guess that they all bought into Trump's "we got to keep our economy open" mantra. Let's see where following a fool will take them.
Because it is proven now, that he's a fool.


Ain't gonna happen. There is no political will for any more lockdowns they do not work. As soon as you open again virus reappears. You cannot shut down essential businesses anyway how will people get food to eat? This is not a virus that has a 50% mortality rate then you might see some action on a lockdown. The damage the prior lockdowns have done have not even been measured yet but you can bet it took far more lives then the virus ever could. I am high risk so people like me just have to lockdown and wait til a vaccine or very good therapeutics come around..They already are having a far less death toll than early on because hospitals are finding out what works and what doesn't.
 
Waterbomber2
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Re: Possibly of Everything Closing Down Across Northern Hemisphere in Fall 2020

Thu Oct 15, 2020 7:02 pm

stratosphere wrote:
Waterbomber2 wrote:
SCQ83 wrote:

Ehhh no.


Yes I was wrong.
I overestimated the politicians' sense of responsibility.
With record infection numbers in these countries, they should have gone into widespread lockdowns and not localised lockdowns like Madrid.
Paris is a red zone and yet everybody is out and acting like there is nothing going on.

I guess that they all bought into Trump's "we got to keep our economy open" mantra. Let's see where following a fool will take them.
Because it is proven now, that he's a fool.


Ain't gonna happen. There is no political will for any more lockdowns they do not work. As soon as you open again virus reappears. You cannot shut down essential businesses anyway how will people get food to eat? This is not a virus that has a 50% mortality rate then you might see some action on a lockdown. The damage the prior lockdowns have done have not even been measured yet but you can bet it took far more lives then the virus ever could. I am high risk so people like me just have to lockdown and wait til a vaccine or very good therapeutics come around..They already are having a far less death toll than early on because hospitals are finding out what works and what doesn't.


There is no political will indeed, because the politicians are prioritizing keeping the economy open at the cost of the economy itself.

Lockdowns do work, it's reopening too soon and in the wrong ways that cause resurgences.
The spring lockdown was very effective but Europe reopened a month too soon. So we're back to square one now with the same problem if not worse.
The months of lockdown and resulting economic damage was all in vain.

A tight lockdown to zero cases is the only way we can stop this fast. People who are against don't even have a plan.

Eventually hospitals will overflow and lockdowns will ensue. But guess what happens after that? They will reopen too soon again "to save the economy" and allow resurgence, resulting in wave after wave, millions of unnecessary deaths and a permanent economic uncertainty.

Sorry to inject some reality, but most small retail businesses will not make it into 2021 even without a proper lockdown. A proper lockdown to zero is the only option to pit a certain end dat to this.

The "people still need to eat" argument is a mere excuse. A well-prepared lockdown can allow people to anticipate their food needs for 3 months and limit the visits to grocery stores.
Not everything comes to a standstill. Farmers will be farming and critical essential activities will continue supported by strict social distancing, PPE, testing.

Most people are in denial and are still hoping for this to magically go away. After several more waves of this, you will be advocating for a single strict lockdown to zero yourself.
 
bennett123
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Re: Possibly of Everything Closing Down Across Northern Hemisphere in Fall 2020

Thu Oct 15, 2020 8:01 pm

The biggest single problem is not developing a strategy. It is getting people to follow it without declaring martial law.
 
FGITD
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Re: Possibly of Everything Closing Down Across Northern Hemisphere in Fall 2020

Thu Oct 15, 2020 9:14 pm

There’s also the reality of how the world functions, which the user advocating for a human hibernation refuses to acknowledge.

Even just limiting things to the most critical necessary employees, you’re still talking about millions of people
 
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lugie
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Re: Possibly of Everything Closing Down Across Northern Hemisphere in Fall 2020

Thu Oct 15, 2020 9:16 pm

Waterbomber2 wrote:
Curfews will have no effect at all on the spread of Covid and no one is stupid enough to believe otherwise.
Restaurant visits will still take place, people will just take earlier reservations.
University students will keep hosting their parties in the dorms, no one can stop that.
Open schools are pools of infection althoughy governments want to stay in denial about it. Infections stayed low into September until they reopened schools. This is most noticeable in Italy where schools opened later than the rest of Europe.


All of these scenarios you mention are matters of enforcement of existing rules, not screaming for a hard lockdown.


Restaurant visits will still take place just at different times?
Good, I'd hate for more restaurants to go bankrupt, especially local non-chain ones. What needs to be done is reduce the number of dine-in tables, strictly enforce the "mask until you're seated" mandate (and maybe expand it to "mask until your food is in front of you") and have waiters spend as little time as possible at the tables. As was mentioned upthread, transmission customer-to-customer or waiter-to-customer is already extremely rare in sit-down restaurants.

Dorm parties?
Students who attend those will have to get home eventually, and, being a student myself, I can't imagine too many of my peers would be fond of 10pm bedtime. Thus, a properly enforced curfew is a rather easy solution for that problem too: Have some police cars patrol the area, everyone who's caught on their way home from the dorms at 2 in the morning catches a 500€ fine. I can guarantee you, 90+% wouldn't risk it. The rest? Once, maybe.

Schools need to expand mask mandates. Remote learning is trash, especially for kids under 16. It simply doesn't work. Education is important and risking to ruin an entire age cohort's primary and secondary schooling career is a huge gamble to take. Give kids the opportunity to stay home as soon as they show any symptoms at all, but keep schools open ffs.
 
Waterbomber2
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Re: Possibly of Everything Closing Down Across Northern Hemisphere in Fall 2020

Thu Oct 15, 2020 11:09 pm

lugie wrote:
Waterbomber2 wrote:
Curfews will have no effect at all on the spread of Covid and no one is stupid enough to believe otherwise.
Restaurant visits will still take place, people will just take earlier reservations.
University students will keep hosting their parties in the dorms, no one can stop that.
Open schools are pools of infection althoughy governments want to stay in denial about it. Infections stayed low into September until they reopened schools. This is most noticeable in Italy where schools opened later than the rest of Europe.


All of these scenarios you mention are matters of enforcement of existing rules, not screaming for a hard lockdown.


Restaurant visits will still take place just at different times?
Good, I'd hate for more restaurants to go bankrupt, especially local non-chain ones. What needs to be done is reduce the number of dine-in tables, strictly enforce the "mask until you're seated" mandate (and maybe expand it to "mask until your food is in front of you") and have waiters spend as little time as possible at the tables. As was mentioned upthread, transmission customer-to-customer or waiter-to-customer is already extremely rare in sit-down restaurants.

Dorm parties?
Students who attend those will have to get home eventually, and, being a student myself, I can't imagine too many of my peers would be fond of 10pm bedtime. Thus, a properly enforced curfew is a rather easy solution for that problem too: Have some police cars patrol the area, everyone who's caught on their way home from the dorms at 2 in the morning catches a 500€ fine. I can guarantee you, 90+% wouldn't risk it. The rest? Once, maybe.

Schools need to expand mask mandates. Remote learning is trash, especially for kids under 16. It simply doesn't work. Education is important and risking to ruin an entire age cohort's primary and secondary schooling career is a huge gamble to take. Give kids the opportunity to stay home as soon as they show any symptoms at all, but keep schools open ffs.


Mask mandates exist in schools where I live, doesn't help at all.
Surgical masks can only do so much. When kids are seated close to eachother for hours on end, they are filling classrooms with droplets they exhale.
Not only that, bathrooms, door knobs, handrails. Kids touch their face constantly.

Dorm parties often happen among people within the same dorms or close from eachother. Cops can't be everywhere at the same time, plus approaching cop vehicles will stand out at night during a curfew, they will just hide.

Restaurants will be points of infection and the more we keep avoiding a proper reset, the more of them will go bankrupt.
I know of 2 restaurants that had outbreaks among the staff and had to close.
Good luck running your restaurant when you start losing staff right and left to sick leave.
If you care about their health at all, you would know better.

It seems people don't know how things happen in the reality of daily lives.

If we keep going like this, most businesses will be bankrupt by mid-2021.



So you guys who are parroting pointless government policies, you explain to me what a curfew does to stop Covid?
Holding curfews hurts restaurants and bars and hotels and bring ZERO benefits. They just hurt businesses for the sake of hurting them.
In the meanwhile, kids are bringing Covid back from school.

Imposing ineffective restrictions is worse than doing nothing.
This is going from stupid to stupid².

Eventually, we'll go back to widespread lockdowns, whether politicians like it or not.
All this "we got to avoid lockdown at all cost" nonsense makes me sick.
 
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Francoflier
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Re: Possibly of Everything Closing Down Across Northern Hemisphere in Fall 2020

Fri Oct 16, 2020 2:44 am

Waterbomber2 wrote:

Most people are in denial and are still hoping for this to magically go away.


Yes, including yourself...

You are just another frenzied and panicked individual looking for a divine solution to the problem rather that facing the reality that this is just another disease we'll have to live alonglside of for a while, just like we do with countless others.

No lockdown will get rid of this. It's way too established and virulent for fast elimination of any sort. Even an effective and universally available vaccine will take years to eradicate it, if it ever does.
In all likelihood, we are looking at a slow decrease of its severity until it becomes benign enough that the media stops caring.

You are stuck in the denial/anger/bargaining phases. It's time to move on.
 
StarAC17
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Re: Possibly of Everything Closing Down Across Northern Hemisphere in Fall 2020

Fri Oct 16, 2020 4:41 am

Francoflier wrote:
Waterbomber2 wrote:

Most people are in denial and are still hoping for this to magically go away.


Yes, including yourself...

You are just another frenzied and panicked individual looking for a divine solution to the problem rather that facing the reality that this is just another disease we'll have to live alonglside of for a while, just like we do with countless others.

No lockdown will get rid of this. It's way too established and virulent for fast elimination of any sort. Even an effective and universally available vaccine will take years to eradicate it, if it ever does.
In all likelihood, we are looking at a slow decrease of its severity until it becomes benign enough that the media stops caring.

You are stuck in the denial/anger/bargaining phases. It's time to move on.


Exactly!!

This virus will be around probably forever and probably be a mild illness within a decade or less. With Vaccines and treatments we will get to the point soon where Covid19 is a nuisance and not a threat. This will likely be in a year or even less, when a vaccine gets approved for first responders and the high risk population and treatments improve to the point that an acceptably high amount of people can be treated for it.

Here are some diseases that still kick around today.

- Influenza - it causes a pandemic every 20-30 years and everyone has had it multiple time
- Measles - solid vaccine, it finds its way to places that people don't vaccinate.
- Chickenpox - same as measles
- Typhoid - Vaccine and treatments available and its still out there.
- TB - It's bacterial but even so it has killed way more people than covid this year alone.
Of all the diseases that affect us here are a coupple
 
Waterbomber2
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Re: Possibly of Everything Closing Down Across Northern Hemisphere in Fall 2020

Fri Oct 16, 2020 2:53 pm

Francoflier wrote:
Waterbomber2 wrote:

Most people are in denial and are still hoping for this to magically go away.


Yes, including yourself...

You are just another frenzied and panicked individual looking for a divine solution to the problem rather that facing the reality that this is just another disease we'll have to live alonglside of for a while, just like we do with countless others.

No lockdown will get rid of this. It's way too established and virulent for fast elimination of any sort. Even an effective and universally available vaccine will take years to eradicate it, if it ever does.
In all likelihood, we are looking at a slow decrease of its severity until it becomes benign enough that the media stops caring.

You are stuck in the denial/anger/bargaining phases. It's time to move on.



So what is your solution Mr Francoflier?
What is your solution that saves businesses and lives at the same time?

What do you tell the parents of Kais, aged 4 from the Brussels suburbs, a healthy boy until last week when he was struck by MIS-C resulting from a Covid infection and is now in coma fighting for his life?
That "they should stop panicking"?

Image

https://www.hln.be/brussel/interview-pa ... 177678068/
 
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CitizenJustin
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Re: Possibly of Everything Closing Down Across Northern Hemisphere in Fall 2020

Fri Oct 16, 2020 3:39 pm

LabQuest wrote:
There's not going to be another shutdown.


This comment certainly didn’t age well.
 
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Francoflier
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Re: Possibly of Everything Closing Down Across Northern Hemisphere in Fall 2020

Fri Oct 16, 2020 4:11 pm

Waterbomber2 wrote:
Francoflier wrote:
Waterbomber2 wrote:

Most people are in denial and are still hoping for this to magically go away.


Yes, including yourself...

You are just another frenzied and panicked individual looking for a divine solution to the problem rather that facing the reality that this is just another disease we'll have to live alonglside of for a while, just like we do with countless others.

No lockdown will get rid of this. It's way too established and virulent for fast elimination of any sort. Even an effective and universally available vaccine will take years to eradicate it, if it ever does.
In all likelihood, we are looking at a slow decrease of its severity until it becomes benign enough that the media stops caring.

You are stuck in the denial/anger/bargaining phases. It's time to move on.



So what is your solution Mr Francoflier?
What is your solution that saves businesses and lives at the same time?

What do you tell the parents of Kais, aged 4 from the Brussels suburbs, a healthy boy until last week when he was struck by MIS-C resulting from a Covid infection and is now in coma fighting for his life?
That "they should stop panicking"?

Image

https://www.hln.be/brussel/interview-pa ... 177678068/


Really, you're bringing out the sick children now?
Again, where is your outrage and fervor when it comes to saving the thousands of children who die every year of all kinds of diseases or malnutrition? Do you want pictures of those?
You must never sleep at night... maybe this can help: https://ssl.msf.hk/donate/en/fc/monthly ... gIRO_D_BwE

Wait, don't tell me you used the picture of a sick child just to make a point on the internet? :sarcastic:

Why don't you look at the actual statistics of Covid's impact of children rather than bringing up isolated cases to make a general statement.

And stop imagining that there is a solution. At least not a quick one. Sorry to be cynical, but the virus is a reality which we will not collectively escape. People will get sick and people will die. Of the 160.000 people or so who die each day on this planet, it looks like roughly 5000 of these will be dying of Covid for a while. In all likelihood, the vast majority of us will get infected at some point.
What we can do is reduce the number of casualties by limiting and slowing the spread. That means wearing masks, washing hands and take sensible social distancing measures. The elderly and people of fragile health should remain at home as much as possible. There is a lot that the West could do better, but you can't change a culture that has worked to its advantage for hundreds of years overnight.

This is happening buddy. No kicking or screaming will make that reality change and no miracle remedy will get rid of it. Sorry. We'll fumble through it and eventually adjust and prevail. Our collective immune system will do its part and the smart blokes and gals over at science inc. will find us ways to fight it better.
Death and sickness are part of living. The goal is to enjoy life while you still have it. Relax a bit and wait for the good days to come back. They will.
 
flyguy89
Posts: 3446
Joined: Tue Feb 24, 2009 6:43 pm

Re: Possibly of Everything Closing Down Across Northern Hemisphere in Fall 2020

Fri Oct 16, 2020 6:32 pm

Francoflier wrote:
Waterbomber2 wrote:
Francoflier wrote:

Yes, including yourself...

You are just another frenzied and panicked individual looking for a divine solution to the problem rather that facing the reality that this is just another disease we'll have to live alonglside of for a while, just like we do with countless others.

No lockdown will get rid of this. It's way too established and virulent for fast elimination of any sort. Even an effective and universally available vaccine will take years to eradicate it, if it ever does.
In all likelihood, we are looking at a slow decrease of its severity until it becomes benign enough that the media stops caring.

You are stuck in the denial/anger/bargaining phases. It's time to move on.



So what is your solution Mr Francoflier?
What is your solution that saves businesses and lives at the same time?

What do you tell the parents of Kais, aged 4 from the Brussels suburbs, a healthy boy until last week when he was struck by MIS-C resulting from a Covid infection and is now in coma fighting for his life?
That "they should stop panicking"?

Image

https://www.hln.be/brussel/interview-pa ... 177678068/


Really, you're bringing out the sick children now?
Again, where is your outrage and fervor when it comes to saving the thousands of children who die every year of all kinds of diseases or malnutrition? Do you want pictures of those?
You must never sleep at night... maybe this can help: https://ssl.msf.hk/donate/en/fc/monthly ... gIRO_D_BwE

Wait, don't tell me you used the picture of a sick child just to make a point on the internet? :sarcastic:

Why don't you look at the actual statistics of Covid's impact of children rather than bringing up isolated cases to make a general statement.

And stop imagining that there is a solution. At least not a quick one. Sorry to be cynical, but the virus is a reality which we will not collectively escape. People will get sick and people will die. Of the 160.000 people or so who die each day on this planet, it looks like roughly 5000 of these will be dying of Covid for a while. In all likelihood, the vast majority of us will get infected at some point.
What we can do is reduce the number of casualties by limiting and slowing the spread. That means wearing masks, washing hands and take sensible social distancing measures. The elderly and people of fragile health should remain at home as much as possible. There is a lot that the West could do better, but you can't change a culture that has worked to its advantage for hundreds of years overnight.

This is happening buddy. No kicking or screaming will make that reality change and no miracle remedy will get rid of it. Sorry. We'll fumble through it and eventually adjust and prevail. Our collective immune system will do its part and the smart blokes and gals over at science inc. will find us ways to fight it better.
Death and sickness are part of living. The goal is to enjoy life while you still have it. Relax a bit and wait for the good days to come back. They will.

It's honestly not worth your well-reasoned breath arguing with this guy. He's not interested in a discussion or real debate over policies except to persist in the fantasy that all countries are lying about their numbers or the virus can be eradicated by hermetically sealing all of humanity.
 
Waterbomber2
Posts: 1469
Joined: Mon Feb 04, 2019 3:44 am

Re: Possibly of Everything Closing Down Across Northern Hemisphere in Fall 2020

Fri Oct 16, 2020 7:59 pm

Belgium announced the closure of all bars and restaurants as of Monday Oct.19th for 1 month.
Reduction of social contacts to 1 person per household, night curfew from midnight to 5am, alcohol sales prohibited after 8pm.
Schools remain open.
This is the last step before a total lockdown as 50% of ICU capacity is already filled.
https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-healt ... KKBN2712T1

In the meanwhile, on airliners.net, government trolls are trying to convince people to go out and put themselves in harm's way so that rich people can get richer.
What a crazy world we live in in 2020.

An advice: stay sheltered, save your money, take your politicians' claims with a bucket of salt.
 
User avatar
fallap
Posts: 1062
Joined: Thu Jan 15, 2009 11:36 am

Re: Possibly of Everything Closing Down Across Northern Hemisphere in Fall 2020

Fri Oct 16, 2020 8:19 pm

Waterbomber2 wrote:
Francoflier wrote:
Waterbomber2 wrote:

Most people are in denial and are still hoping for this to magically go away.


Yes, including yourself...

You are just another frenzied and panicked individual looking for a divine solution to the problem rather that facing the reality that this is just another disease we'll have to live alonglside of for a while, just like we do with countless others.

No lockdown will get rid of this. It's way too established and virulent for fast elimination of any sort. Even an effective and universally available vaccine will take years to eradicate it, if it ever does.
In all likelihood, we are looking at a slow decrease of its severity until it becomes benign enough that the media stops caring.

You are stuck in the denial/anger/bargaining phases. It's time to move on.



So what is your solution Mr Francoflier?
What is your solution that saves businesses and lives at the same time?

What do you tell the parents of Kais, aged 4 from the Brussels suburbs, a healthy boy until last week when he was struck by MIS-C resulting from a Covid infection and is now in coma fighting for his life?
That "they should stop panicking"?

Image

https://www.hln.be/brussel/interview-pa ... 177678068/


Kids die every day of various diseases and what not. If he is in a coma due to Covid-19, then there are certainly more to it. I wish Kais the best, and hopefully he will make a full recovery soon.

But I fail to see your point, do you suggest that we lockdown society until not a single child die from Covid-19? That is certainly a quaint idea. What strikes me about Covid-19 is how people seem to be panicking about the prospect of just a single death, while people died in droves before of various other diseases.
 
flyguy89
Posts: 3446
Joined: Tue Feb 24, 2009 6:43 pm

Re: Possibly of Everything Closing Down Across Northern Hemisphere in Fall 2020

Fri Oct 16, 2020 9:02 pm

Waterbomber2 wrote:
An advice: stay sheltered, save your money, take your politicians' claims with a bucket of salt.

Advice you yourself don't seem to be taking as evidenced by your prior posts telling us of your frequent travels to Paris, Germany, Italy, etc.

And by the way, wasn't all of Europe supposed be in lockdown a month ago according to you? I'll stick with taking your predictions with a bucket of salt as well I think.
 
LabQuest
Posts: 251
Joined: Fri Dec 06, 2019 1:31 am

Re: Possibly of Everything Closing Down Across Northern Hemisphere in Fall 2020

Fri Oct 16, 2020 9:08 pm

CitizenJustin wrote:
LabQuest wrote:
There's not going to be another shutdown.


This comment certainly didn’t age well.


Where are we shut down in the USA? Its business as usual where I live.
 
Waterbomber2
Posts: 1469
Joined: Mon Feb 04, 2019 3:44 am

Re: Possibly of Everything Closing Down Across Northern Hemisphere in Fall 2020

Fri Oct 16, 2020 9:50 pm

fallap wrote:
Waterbomber2 wrote:
Francoflier wrote:

Yes, including yourself...

You are just another frenzied and panicked individual looking for a divine solution to the problem rather that facing the reality that this is just another disease we'll have to live alonglside of for a while, just like we do with countless others.

No lockdown will get rid of this. It's way too established and virulent for fast elimination of any sort. Even an effective and universally available vaccine will take years to eradicate it, if it ever does.
In all likelihood, we are looking at a slow decrease of its severity until it becomes benign enough that the media stops caring.

You are stuck in the denial/anger/bargaining phases. It's time to move on.



So what is your solution Mr Francoflier?
What is your solution that saves businesses and lives at the same time?

What do you tell the parents of Kais, aged 4 from the Brussels suburbs, a healthy boy until last week when he was struck by MIS-C resulting from a Covid infection and is now in coma fighting for his life?
That "they should stop panicking"?

Image

https://www.hln.be/brussel/interview-pa ... 177678068/


Kids die every day of various diseases and what not. If he is in a coma due to Covid-19, then there are certainly more to it. I wish Kais the best, and hopefully he will make a full recovery soon.

But I fail to see your point, do you suggest that we lockdown society until not a single child die from Covid-19? That is certainly a quaint idea. What strikes me about Covid-19 is how people seem to be panicking about the prospect of just a single death, while people died in droves before of various other diseases.


There is a solution to this health crisis.
Everyone home for 2-3 months until covid-free and then borders closed until other countries become covid-free.
At this point, it is obvious that this will have the least financial and human cost.

As implemented with success by New Zealand.

Countries that implement this will come out of this crisis champions while others will lag behind economically and politically.


If you don't agree, fine, come back when Covid strikes your child and then we'll have the "children die all the time of all kinds of things" chat again.
Come back after your business has gone bankrupt and you face financial ruin because governments are being **ssies about implementing tough lockdowns.

There was a time where soldiers ran through fields with 50kg of gear to defend their country and save lives, all of that so that 80 years later their liberated countrymen could complain about having to stay at home for a few weeks.

If this virus doesn't bother you at all, why do you even bother to visit this thread? Boggles my mind.
 
GalaxyFlyer
Posts: 8591
Joined: Fri Jan 01, 2016 4:44 am

Re: Possibly of Everything Closing Down Across Northern Hemisphere in Fall 2020

Fri Oct 16, 2020 10:43 pm

Even ostrich pulls his head out of sand faster than 3 month’s time. Lockdowns were never about killing the pandemic, it was about flattening the curve so the medical system could cope. Goalposts moving again.
 
StarAC17
Posts: 4207
Joined: Thu Aug 07, 2003 11:54 am

Re: Possibly of Everything Closing Down Across Northern Hemisphere in Fall 2020

Fri Oct 16, 2020 11:54 pm

If you don't agree, fine, come back when Covid strikes your child and then we'll have the "children die all the time of all kinds of things" chat again.
Come back after your business has gone bankrupt and you face financial ruin because governments are being **ssies about implementing tough lockdowns.


Schools across the northern hemisphere have been open for nearly two months now. If kids were facing mass hospitalizations and deaths from Covid19 we would know about it now.
We would have known about it in April. Childrenn are the least at risk from Covid19. In fact any one under 50 with no serious pre-existing conditions have an essentially zero chance of dying from this virus. Some will die, which is why reasonable measures can be taken to slow the spread so we can treat anyone who needs it. The goal of flattening the curve.

One bad case or death is a child sad story and not a trend. Tragically, four year olds die all the time across the globe from dozens of other things. It is horrible for the families of that child but society doesn't shut down.

Unless you believe that the media and politicians are covering this up (I suspect you do). The facts say kids have can handle this easily.

The fear is they are asymptomatic and give it to Grandma, who is at risk.

If this virus had a confirmed 5-20% mortality rate I would agree with you 100%. It doesn't and is sub 1% and that rate is going down, not up.
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