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Possibly of Everything Closing Down Across Northern Hemisphere in Fall 2020

Posted: Sun Sep 13, 2020 4:47 am
by ArchGuy1
Will everything non essential across the Northern Hemisphere be shutting down again in the fall when COVID-19 will be circulating alongside the seasonal flu at the same time? I also heard that a second wave of COVID-19 is anticipated at the same time. So, does anyone know if this will mean restaurants, tourist attractions, non essential stores, schools, non essential construction work, and other businesses shutting down again across North America, the Middle East, Asia, and Europe in like November?

Re: Possibly of Everything Closing Down Across Northern Hemisphere in Fall 2020

Posted: Sun Sep 13, 2020 5:30 am
by Aaron747
Pretty simple: if everyone uses masks and hospital capacity issues are not observed, there won’t be a need for shutdowns. If people continue to be idiots about masks and hospitals start filling up again - bedlam.

Re: Possibly of Everything Closing Down Across Northern Hemisphere in Fall 2020

Posted: Sun Sep 13, 2020 11:02 am
by LabQuest
There's not going to be another shutdown.

Re: Possibly of Everything Closing Down Across Northern Hemisphere in Fall 2020

Posted: Sun Sep 13, 2020 11:32 am
by N757ST
We keep applying modeling of Covid based upon the flu. Every model before the summer said that covid would go to nothing and there would be a second wave this fall. All those models were wrong. We have no clue what the fall will look like, positive or negative. This virus isn’t the flu, and it doesn’t act like the flu.

Re: Possibly of Everything Closing Down Across Northern Hemisphere in Fall 2020

Posted: Sun Sep 13, 2020 11:45 am
by Aaron747
N757ST wrote:
We keep applying modeling of Covid based upon the flu. Every model before the summer said that covid would go to nothing and there would be a second wave this fall. All those models were wrong. We have no clue what the fall will look like, positive or negative. This virus isn’t the flu, and it doesn’t act like the flu.


Correct, but a resurgent wave of COVID infection in tandem with onset of regular flu season may present a capacity challenge for healthcare facilities. That’s the concern.

Re: Possibly of Everything Closing Down Across Northern Hemisphere in Fall 2020

Posted: Sun Sep 13, 2020 11:56 am
by GalaxyFlyer
OR, COVID has already “killed off” this coming winter’s most likely flu victims resulting in a “mild” flu year.

I think you’re in Cali, how come despite that noxious Newsome, there’s virtually little change in COVID there? My brother’s whole family lives there and are blithely headed off to Cabo for a wedding. Others travel about like its 1999.

Re: Possibly of Everything Closing Down Across Northern Hemisphere in Fall 2020

Posted: Sun Sep 13, 2020 12:10 pm
by Aaron747
GalaxyFlyer wrote:
OR, COVID has already “killed off” this coming winter’s most likely flu victims resulting in a “mild” flu year.

I think you’re in Cali, how come despite that noxious Newsome, there’s virtually little change in COVID there? My brother’s whole family lives there and are blithely headed off to Cabo for a wedding. Others travel about like its 1999.


Positivity rate finally got under 4% in the last week, so that’s significant progress. Counties full of idiots like Orange and Riverside are still in surge mode so the statewide numbers look bad. My county’s 70% below Orange County’s death figure.

https://occovid.com/compare?s=09

Re: Possibly of Everything Closing Down Across Northern Hemisphere in Fall 2020

Posted: Sun Sep 13, 2020 12:50 pm
by N757ST
GalaxyFlyer wrote:
OR, COVID has already “killed off” this coming winter’s most likely flu victims resulting in a “mild” flu year.

I think you’re in Cali, how come despite that noxious Newsome, there’s virtually little change in COVID there? My brother’s whole family lives there and are blithely headed off to Cabo for a wedding. Others travel about like its 1999.



Lack of trans border travel, working from home, the thinning of the herd as you said, and virus mitigation techniques designed for flu likely mean a very mild flu season.

And ironically, these flu prevention techniques might be doing bupkis for covid -19. More and more evidence is saying this think might be straight airborne. Meaning exposure time, filtered air, and ventilation are more important then social distancing.

Re: Possibly of Everything Closing Down Across Northern Hemisphere in Fall 2020

Posted: Sun Sep 13, 2020 2:01 pm
by sierrakilo44
Interesting information regarding the recent second wave in France, for which Macron has stated there won’t be a second lockdown.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavir ... ry/france/

For the first wave the 7 day moving average cases peaked on Apr 2 at approx 4300 cases per day. They dropped below 3000 cases per day about 14 days later. The 7 day daily death rate for that period was 500-900 per day, dropping below 500 23 days later.

For the second wave starting in August has seen a higher case load per day, passing 4500 on Aug 27, and continuing upwards to over 8000 per day on Sep 12, 16 days later. However the 7 day moving death rate has barely moved from the minimum, staying below 20 per day and only hitting 30 on the last recorded day (Sep 12), this is quite observable on the graphs.

The UK’s numbers are seemingly following the same pattern, although the second wave is about a week behind France’s so the data not as conclusive but there is no concurrent rise in deaths as with the first wave:

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/

The same for Spain, second wave nowhere near as fatal as the first, and the second wave seem to have peaked already:

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavir ... try/spain/

Re: Possibly of Everything Closing Down Across Northern Hemisphere in Fall 2020

Posted: Sun Sep 13, 2020 2:07 pm
by Aaron747
sierrakilo44 wrote:
Interesting information regarding the recent second wave in France, for which Macron has stated there won’t be a second lockdown.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavir ... ry/france/

For the first wave the 7 day moving average cases peaked on Apr 2 at approx 4300 cases per day. They dropped below 3000 cases per day about 14 days later. The 7 day daily death rate for that period was 500-900 per day, dropping below 500 23 days later.

For the second wave starting in August has seen a higher case load per day, passing 4500 on Aug 27, and continuing upwards to over 8000 per day on Sep 12, 16 days later. However the 7 day moving death rate has barely moved from the minimum, staying below 20 per day and only hitting 30 on the last recorded day (Sep 12), this is quite observable on the graphs.

The UK’s numbers are seemingly following the same pattern, although the second wave is about a week behind France’s so the data not as conclusive but there is no concurrent rise in deaths as with the first wave:

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/

The same for Spain, second wave nowhere near as fatal as the first, and the second wave seem to have peaked already:

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavir ... try/spain/


The same pattern is being seen in Asia - we could speculate that either a. viral loads at time of exposure in new cases are less thanks to mask wearing or b. the virus is becoming weaker as its genetic tree expands or c. both

Re: Possibly of Everything Closing Down Across Northern Hemisphere in Fall 2020

Posted: Sun Sep 13, 2020 2:17 pm
by sierrakilo44
Aaron747 wrote:
sierrakilo44 wrote:
Interesting information regarding the recent second wave in France, for which Macron has stated there won’t be a second lockdown.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavir ... ry/france/

For the first wave the 7 day moving average cases peaked on Apr 2 at approx 4300 cases per day. They dropped below 3000 cases per day about 14 days later. The 7 day daily death rate for that period was 500-900 per day, dropping below 500 23 days later.

For the second wave starting in August has seen a higher case load per day, passing 4500 on Aug 27, and continuing upwards to over 8000 per day on Sep 12, 16 days later. However the 7 day moving death rate has barely moved from the minimum, staying below 20 per day and only hitting 30 on the last recorded day (Sep 12), this is quite observable on the graphs.

The UK’s numbers are seemingly following the same pattern, although the second wave is about a week behind France’s so the data not as conclusive but there is no concurrent rise in deaths as with the first wave:

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/

The same for Spain, second wave nowhere near as fatal as the first, and the second wave seem to have peaked already:

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavir ... try/spain/


The same pattern is being seen in Asia - we could speculate that either a. viral loads at time of exposure in new cases are less thanks to mask wearing or b. the virus is becoming weaker as its genetic tree expands or c. both


It may have been a lower amount of testing the first time around, the increased rate of testing giving a lower CFR. Or those other reasons. Whatever it is it’s not causing the same problems as last time, the CFR would be roughly 0.3%, right within seasonal flu averages.

I’m not sure how prevalent mask wearing has been in Europe this August, not more than a minority unless mandated I would’ve thought?

If the death rate doesn’t increase markedly with the increase in cases in this European second wave it may be cause to show that further lockdowns/travel bans are unnecessary, and maybe the world can start getting back on a road towards normality without a vaccine that may or may not come for a few years yet.

Re: Possibly of Everything Closing Down Across Northern Hemisphere in Fall 2020

Posted: Sun Sep 13, 2020 3:15 pm
by ltbewr
The USA is going to have a '2nd wave' this fall and winter. It has already started with the attempts to reopen schools, colleges/universities and some less critical workplaces failing forcing a return to work and school from home with major outbreaks of Covid-19. There is also the demand from businesses, especially restaurants as becomes too cool for outside eating and to have enough revenues to survive to have 50% or more of indoor dining, which is a reasonably proven high risk factor for transmitting Covid-19. Then you have many who are suffering from 'Pandemic fatigue', want to be with others even if a risk of infection with Thanksgiving and Christmas, usually celebrated indoors, that will be major triggers of many 'hot spots' of infection. The good part is that many of those who get infected are seeing lower rates of death and hospitalization. The bad part is human nature, in the USA a near useless testing and contract tracing programs, a lot of brainless idiots and obscenely bad Federal help, guidance and total lack of leadership by President Trump and persons of both parties, lack of financial help to individuals, state and local governments to make up for lost tax revenues and still mandated demands for services.
Hopefully we won't see another March-May lock down in the USA and in other NH countries, but we are likely to see a return of a number of life and movement restrictions as the 2nd wave hits and wait for the vaccines.

Re: Possibly of Everything Closing Down Across Northern Hemisphere in Fall 2020

Posted: Sun Sep 13, 2020 9:28 pm
by ArchGuy1
ltbewr wrote:
The USA is going to have a '2nd wave' this fall and winter. It has already started with the attempts to reopen schools, colleges/universities and some less critical workplaces failing forcing a return to work and school from home with major outbreaks of Covid-19. There is also the demand from businesses, especially restaurants as becomes too cool for outside eating and to have enough revenues to survive to have 50% or more of indoor dining, which is a reasonably proven high risk factor for transmitting Covid-19. Then you have many who are suffering from 'Pandemic fatigue', want to be with others even if a risk of infection with Thanksgiving and Christmas, usually celebrated indoors, that will be major triggers of many 'hot spots' of infection. The good part is that many of those who get infected are seeing lower rates of death and hospitalization. The bad part is human nature, in the USA a near useless testing and contract tracing programs, a lot of brainless idiots and obscenely bad Federal help, guidance and total lack of leadership by President Trump and persons of both parties, lack of financial help to individuals, state and local governments to make up for lost tax revenues and still mandated demands for services.
Hopefully we won't see another March-May lock down in the USA and in other NH countries, but we are likely to see a return of a number of life and movement restrictions as the 2nd wave hits and wait for the vaccines.

Do you think that stay at home orders and lockdowns will return in like November across North America, Europe, the Middle East, and Asia? I do know that for Thanksgiving and Christmas gatherings, large numbers elderly people will be getting together and not just young people. Also, do you think that everything in North America, Europe, the Middle East, and Asia will shut down again come November? Furthermore, if Joe Biden becomes President, do you think he will quarantine and actually cordon off whatever location is the epicenter of the COVID-19 outbreak once he comes to office?

Re: Possibly of Everything Closing Down Across Northern Hemisphere in Fall 2020

Posted: Sun Sep 13, 2020 10:41 pm
by johns624
ArchGuy1 wrote:
Do you think that stay at home orders and lockdowns will return in like November across North America, Europe, the Middle East, and Asia? I do know that for Thanksgiving and Christmas gatherings, large numbers elderly people will be getting together and not just young people. Also, do you think that everything in North America, Europe, the Middle East, and Asia will shut down again come November? Furthermore, if Joe Biden becomes President, do you think he will quarantine and actually cordon off whatever location is the epicenter of the COVID-19 outbreak once he comes to office?
What's your opinion?

Re: Possibly of Everything Closing Down Across Northern Hemisphere in Fall 2020

Posted: Sun Sep 13, 2020 11:15 pm
by TTailedTiger
Or you could take care of yourself and make your own decisions. What a concept. No one can force you to leave your home. Stop ruining life for the rest of us though.

Re: Possibly of Everything Closing Down Across Northern Hemisphere in Fall 2020

Posted: Mon Sep 14, 2020 12:11 am
by moo
TTailedTiger wrote:
Or you could take care of yourself and make your own decisions. What a concept. No one can force you to leave your home. Stop ruining life for the rest of us though.


Hey, TTailedTiger, your dumb is showing, you might want to tuck it back in.

Re: Possibly of Everything Closing Down Across Northern Hemisphere in Fall 2020

Posted: Mon Sep 14, 2020 12:24 am
by bgm
TTailedTiger wrote:
Or you could take care of yourself and make your own decisions. What a concept. No one can force you to leave your home. Stop ruining life for the rest of us though.


How about people who selfishly don't follow advice on masks/distancing and spread it around stop ruining it for the rest of us who are being careful?

People blame Trump for the poor federal response, and while I agree with that sentiment, I think the bigger issue is certain Americans' individualistic mentality of 'I only care about me' vs for the common good. The maskholes illustrate this beautifully.

Unfortunately, Covid doesn't work on an individual basis. It requires a coordinated response, and this is why the US has spectacularly failed.

Almost 200,000 dead. That's the equivalent to almost 67 days worth of 9/11. Let that sink in.

Re: Possibly of Everything Closing Down Across Northern Hemisphere in Fall 2020

Posted: Mon Sep 14, 2020 12:32 am
by TTailedTiger
bgm wrote:
TTailedTiger wrote:
Or you could take care of yourself and make your own decisions. What a concept. No one can force you to leave your home. Stop ruining life for the rest of us though.


How about people who selfishly don't follow advice on masks/distancing and spread it around stop ruining it for the rest of us who are being careful?

People blame Trump for the poor federal response, and while I agree with that sentiment, I think the bigger issue is certain Americans' individualistic mentality of 'I only care about me' vs for the common good. The maskholes illustrate this beautifully.

Unfortunately, Covid doesn't work on an individual basis. It requires a coordinated response, and this is why the US has spectacularly failed.

Almost 200,000 dead. That's the equivalent to almost 67 days worth of 9/11. Let that sink in.


Oh yeah I can just imagine how Democrats would have responded if Trump had tried to lock everyone in their homes. Get real. A federal government with that much power should be a terrifying thought.

Sweden didn't do anything and they are no worse off than anyone else. You just want something to be mad about.

Re: Possibly of Everything Closing Down Across Northern Hemisphere in Fall 2020

Posted: Mon Sep 14, 2020 12:41 am
by NIKV69
The term "second wave" was pushed by the press as a way to instill fear in the masses. I think we will see a rise in cases but it won't be to the extent of the breakout was. It is quite sickening that people are hoping for this as a way to win an election but we may see schools moved to virtual learning. It was foolish to open them to begin with.

Re: Possibly of Everything Closing Down Across Northern Hemisphere in Fall 2020

Posted: Mon Sep 14, 2020 12:51 am
by afcjets
I wonder why Beijing doesn't seem to be affected.

Re: Possibly of Everything Closing Down Across Northern Hemisphere in Fall 2020

Posted: Mon Sep 14, 2020 12:55 am
by GalaxyFlyer
bgm wrote:
TTailedTiger wrote:
Or you could take care of yourself and make your own decisions. What a concept. No one can force you to leave your home. Stop ruining life for the rest of us though.


How about people who selfishly don't follow advice on masks/distancing and spread it around stop ruining it for the rest of us who are being careful?

People blame Trump for the poor federal response, and while I agree with that sentiment, I think the bigger issue is certain Americans' individualistic mentality of 'I only care about me' vs for the common good. The maskholes illustrate this beautifully.

Unfortunately, Covid doesn't work on an individual basis. It requires a coordinated response, and this is why the US has spectacularly failed.

Almost 200,000 dead. That's the equivalent to almost 67 days worth of 9/11. Let that sink in.


More accurately, 200,000 dead is a bit less than one month’s normal deaths in the USA. COVID is not a terrorist, criminal act, it’s just a natural virus. Big difference unless you grieve over each month’s total obituaries. I don’t, unless I know the 200,000 people.

Re: Possibly of Everything Closing Down Across Northern Hemisphere in Fall 2020

Posted: Mon Sep 14, 2020 12:57 am
by FGITD
TTailedTiger wrote:
bgm wrote:
TTailedTiger wrote:
Or you could take care of yourself and make your own decisions. What a concept. No one can force you to leave your home. Stop ruining life for the rest of us though.


How about people who selfishly don't follow advice on masks/distancing and spread it around stop ruining it for the rest of us who are being careful?

People blame Trump for the poor federal response, and while I agree with that sentiment, I think the bigger issue is certain Americans' individualistic mentality of 'I only care about me' vs for the common good. The maskholes illustrate this beautifully.

Unfortunately, Covid doesn't work on an individual basis. It requires a coordinated response, and this is why the US has spectacularly failed.

Almost 200,000 dead. That's the equivalent to almost 67 days worth of 9/11. Let that sink in.


Oh yeah I can just imagine how Democrats would have responded if Trump had tried to lock everyone in their homes. Get real. A federal government with that much power should be a terrifying thought.

Sweden didn't do anything and they are no worse off than anyone else. You just want something to be mad about.


Funny. I live in a democratic state with a Republican Governor, who locked us down. Now we are among the better states in terms of spread. Admittedly many deaths, but we were also home to one of, if not the very first superspreader event in the US.

Sweden also has the population of New York City, spread throughout an area a little bigger than California. Whole lot easier to distance

Re: Possibly of Everything Closing Down Across Northern Hemisphere in Fall 2020

Posted: Mon Sep 14, 2020 1:44 am
by casinterest
The US is in the process of pushing the fall wave of virus. The current weekly counts are higher than the initial wave in March and April. Fatality counts are much lower(Which is good) . I do fear though that the restart of sporting events for kids, and schools is going to fuel a delayed deadly wave for the elderly and susceptible folks. The next few weeks will show how Labor Day and post sports/school startups have affected the numbers.

Re: Possibly of Everything Closing Down Across Northern Hemisphere in Fall 2020

Posted: Mon Sep 14, 2020 1:46 am
by Aaron747
FGITD wrote:
TTailedTiger wrote:
bgm wrote:

How about people who selfishly don't follow advice on masks/distancing and spread it around stop ruining it for the rest of us who are being careful?

People blame Trump for the poor federal response, and while I agree with that sentiment, I think the bigger issue is certain Americans' individualistic mentality of 'I only care about me' vs for the common good. The maskholes illustrate this beautifully.

Unfortunately, Covid doesn't work on an individual basis. It requires a coordinated response, and this is why the US has spectacularly failed.

Almost 200,000 dead. That's the equivalent to almost 67 days worth of 9/11. Let that sink in.


Oh yeah I can just imagine how Democrats would have responded if Trump had tried to lock everyone in their homes. Get real. A federal government with that much power should be a terrifying thought.

Sweden didn't do anything and they are no worse off than anyone else. You just want something to be mad about.


Funny. I live in a democratic state with a Republican Governor, who locked us down. Now we are among the better states in terms of spread. Admittedly many deaths, but we were also home to one of, if not the very first superspreader event in the US.

Sweden also has the population of New York City, spread throughout an area a little bigger than California. Whole lot easier to distance


Yes and no...Sweden, like California, has the bulk of its population in four or five cities.

Re: Possibly of Everything Closing Down Across Northern Hemisphere in Fall 2020

Posted: Mon Sep 14, 2020 1:50 am
by Aaron747
TTailedTiger wrote:
bgm wrote:
TTailedTiger wrote:
Or you could take care of yourself and make your own decisions. What a concept. No one can force you to leave your home. Stop ruining life for the rest of us though.


How about people who selfishly don't follow advice on masks/distancing and spread it around stop ruining it for the rest of us who are being careful?

People blame Trump for the poor federal response, and while I agree with that sentiment, I think the bigger issue is certain Americans' individualistic mentality of 'I only care about me' vs for the common good. The maskholes illustrate this beautifully.

Unfortunately, Covid doesn't work on an individual basis. It requires a coordinated response, and this is why the US has spectacularly failed.

Almost 200,000 dead. That's the equivalent to almost 67 days worth of 9/11. Let that sink in.


Oh yeah I can just imagine how Democrats would have responded if Trump had tried to lock everyone in their homes. Get real. A federal government with that much power should be a terrifying thought.

Sweden didn't do anything and they are no worse off than anyone else. You just want something to be mad about.


Public health is not political. According to our best and brightest, attitudes like yours are why our record is so bad compared to the rest of the developed world. It’s completely unnecessary.

Re: Possibly of Everything Closing Down Across Northern Hemisphere in Fall 2020

Posted: Mon Sep 14, 2020 1:57 am
by TTailedTiger
Aaron747 wrote:
TTailedTiger wrote:
bgm wrote:

How about people who selfishly don't follow advice on masks/distancing and spread it around stop ruining it for the rest of us who are being careful?

People blame Trump for the poor federal response, and while I agree with that sentiment, I think the bigger issue is certain Americans' individualistic mentality of 'I only care about me' vs for the common good. The maskholes illustrate this beautifully.

Unfortunately, Covid doesn't work on an individual basis. It requires a coordinated response, and this is why the US has spectacularly failed.

Almost 200,000 dead. That's the equivalent to almost 67 days worth of 9/11. Let that sink in.


Oh yeah I can just imagine how Democrats would have responded if Trump had tried to lock everyone in their homes. Get real. A federal government with that much power should be a terrifying thought.

Sweden didn't do anything and they are no worse off than anyone else. You just want something to be mad about.


Public health is not political. According to our best and brightest, attitudes like yours are why our record is so bad compared to the rest of the developed world. It’s completely unnecessary.


The problem is that if you allow it now, what's to stop someone from misusing it in the future? Do you think politicians are benevolent creatures? Do you just like having someone tell you what to do and treat you however they want? I don't.

Re: Possibly of Everything Closing Down Across Northern Hemisphere in Fall 2020

Posted: Mon Sep 14, 2020 2:04 am
by Aaron747
TTailedTiger wrote:
Aaron747 wrote:
TTailedTiger wrote:

Oh yeah I can just imagine how Democrats would have responded if Trump had tried to lock everyone in their homes. Get real. A federal government with that much power should be a terrifying thought.

Sweden didn't do anything and they are no worse off than anyone else. You just want something to be mad about.


Public health is not political. According to our best and brightest, attitudes like yours are why our record is so bad compared to the rest of the developed world. It’s completely unnecessary.


The problem is that if you allow it now, what's to stop someone from misusing it in the future? Do you think politicians are benevolent creatures? Do you just like having someone tell you what to do and treat you however they want? I don't.


It’s not about any of that. Public health is about science. Guidelines are arrived at via consensus. Emotionally stable and secure adults do not worry about bogeymen lurking in every nook and cranny of life. I have been part of groups of people calling out a maskhole 3x in the last week and it’s simply ridiculous. We just want to do our shopping without dealing with someone else’s selfish projections and insecurities.

Re: Possibly of Everything Closing Down Across Northern Hemisphere in Fall 2020

Posted: Mon Sep 14, 2020 2:14 am
by TTailedTiger
Aaron747 wrote:
TTailedTiger wrote:
Aaron747 wrote:

Public health is not political. According to our best and brightest, attitudes like yours are why our record is so bad compared to the rest of the developed world. It’s completely unnecessary.


The problem is that if you allow it now, what's to stop someone from misusing it in the future? Do you think politicians are benevolent creatures? Do you just like having someone tell you what to do and treat you however they want? I don't.


It’s not about any of that. Public health is about science. Guidelines are arrived at via consensus. Emotionally stable and secure adults do not worry about bogeymen lurking in every nook and cranny of life. I have been part of groups of people calling out a maskhole 3x in the last week and it’s simply ridiculous. We just want to do our shopping without dealing with someone else’s selfish projections and insecurities.


That's odd. I have seen nothing like that in Florida and we are far less civilized than California (or at least that's what Californians tell us). At my gym some wear masks and some of us don't. No one has made any arguments about it. I haven't seen arguments about masks anywhere else I go to either.

Re: Possibly of Everything Closing Down Across Northern Hemisphere in Fall 2020

Posted: Mon Sep 14, 2020 2:20 am
by Aaron747
TTailedTiger wrote:
Aaron747 wrote:
TTailedTiger wrote:

The problem is that if you allow it now, what's to stop someone from misusing it in the future? Do you think politicians are benevolent creatures? Do you just like having someone tell you what to do and treat you however they want? I don't.


It’s not about any of that. Public health is about science. Guidelines are arrived at via consensus. Emotionally stable and secure adults do not worry about bogeymen lurking in every nook and cranny of life. I have been part of groups of people calling out a maskhole 3x in the last week and it’s simply ridiculous. We just want to do our shopping without dealing with someone else’s selfish projections and insecurities.


That's odd. I have seen nothing like that in Florida and we are far less civilized than California (or at least that's what Californians tell us). At my gym some wear masks and some of us don't. No one has made any arguments about it. I haven't seen arguments about masks anywhere else I go to either.


People take health seriously in my county. Very few obese people, lots of hiking trails, and farm fresh food in most restaurants. We’re not okay with high rates of infection like some of the morons in SoCal.

Re: Possibly of Everything Closing Down Across Northern Hemisphere in Fall 2020

Posted: Mon Sep 14, 2020 2:33 am
by stl07
FGITD wrote:
TTailedTiger wrote:
bgm wrote:

How about people who selfishly don't follow advice on masks/distancing and spread it around stop ruining it for the rest of us who are being careful?

People blame Trump for the poor federal response, and while I agree with that sentiment, I think the bigger issue is certain Americans' individualistic mentality of 'I only care about me' vs for the common good. The maskholes illustrate this beautifully.

Unfortunately, Covid doesn't work on an individual basis. It requires a coordinated response, and this is why the US has spectacularly failed.

Almost 200,000 dead. That's the equivalent to almost 67 days worth of 9/11. Let that sink in.


Oh yeah I can just imagine how Democrats would have responded if Trump had tried to lock everyone in their homes. Get real. A federal government with that much power should be a terrifying thought.

Sweden didn't do anything and they are no worse off than anyone else. You just want something to be mad about.


Funny. I live in a democratic state with a Republican Governor, who locked us down. Now we are among the better states in terms of spread. Admittedly many deaths, but we were also home to one of, if not the very first superspreader event in the US.

Sweden also has the population of New York City, spread throughout an area a little bigger than California. Whole lot easier to distance

That Sweden thing is a total lie that was fact-checked by most news sources except for you know who. Compare their deaths to NORWAY, not the US as NORWAY has a very similar demograohic but they shut down

Re: Possibly of Everything Closing Down Across Northern Hemisphere in Fall 2020

Posted: Mon Sep 14, 2020 2:33 am
by TTailedTiger
Aaron747 wrote:
TTailedTiger wrote:
Aaron747 wrote:

It’s not about any of that. Public health is about science. Guidelines are arrived at via consensus. Emotionally stable and secure adults do not worry about bogeymen lurking in every nook and cranny of life. I have been part of groups of people calling out a maskhole 3x in the last week and it’s simply ridiculous. We just want to do our shopping without dealing with someone else’s selfish projections and insecurities.


That's odd. I have seen nothing like that in Florida and we are far less civilized than California (or at least that's what Californians tell us). At my gym some wear masks and some of us don't. No one has made any arguments about it. I haven't seen arguments about masks anywhere else I go to either.


People take health seriously in my county. Very few obese people, lots of hiking trails, and farm fresh food in most restaurants. We’re not okay with high rates of infection like some of the morons in SoCal.


I'm not ok with street crime. So I stay away from areas that are known for it. But maybe I'd be open to your idea of locking up those who MIGHT be perpetuating it. Wouldn't that be the best way to get it under control?

Re: Possibly of Everything Closing Down Across Northern Hemisphere in Fall 2020

Posted: Mon Sep 14, 2020 2:48 am
by bgm
GalaxyFlyer wrote:
bgm wrote:
TTailedTiger wrote:
Or you could take care of yourself and make your own decisions. What a concept. No one can force you to leave your home. Stop ruining life for the rest of us though.


How about people who selfishly don't follow advice on masks/distancing and spread it around stop ruining it for the rest of us who are being careful?

People blame Trump for the poor federal response, and while I agree with that sentiment, I think the bigger issue is certain Americans' individualistic mentality of 'I only care about me' vs for the common good. The maskholes illustrate this beautifully.

Unfortunately, Covid doesn't work on an individual basis. It requires a coordinated response, and this is why the US has spectacularly failed.

Almost 200,000 dead. That's the equivalent to almost 67 days worth of 9/11. Let that sink in.


More accurately, 200,000 dead is a bit less than one month’s normal deaths in the USA. COVID is not a terrorist, criminal act, it’s just a natural virus. Big difference unless you grieve over each month’s total obituaries. I don’t, unless I know the 200,000 people.


Why is a life lost through terrorism more important than a life lost due to catching a deadly virus? Explain please.

Re: Possibly of Everything Closing Down Across Northern Hemisphere in Fall 2020

Posted: Mon Sep 14, 2020 2:57 am
by Aaron747
TTailedTiger wrote:
Aaron747 wrote:
TTailedTiger wrote:

That's odd. I have seen nothing like that in Florida and we are far less civilized than California (or at least that's what Californians tell us). At my gym some wear masks and some of us don't. No one has made any arguments about it. I haven't seen arguments about masks anywhere else I go to either.


People take health seriously in my county. Very few obese people, lots of hiking trails, and farm fresh food in most restaurants. We’re not okay with high rates of infection like some of the morons in SoCal.


I'm not ok with street crime. So I stay away from areas that are known for it. But maybe I'd be open to your idea of locking up those who MIGHT be perpetuating it. Wouldn't that be the best way to get it under control?


Illogical - one is not like the other. And I never said people refusing to wear masks should be jailed - it’s enough that businesses and public buildings don’t allow them to stay.

Re: Possibly of Everything Closing Down Across Northern Hemisphere in Fall 2020

Posted: Mon Sep 14, 2020 3:00 am
by TTailedTiger
Aaron747 wrote:
TTailedTiger wrote:
Aaron747 wrote:

People take health seriously in my county. Very few obese people, lots of hiking trails, and farm fresh food in most restaurants. We’re not okay with high rates of infection like some of the morons in SoCal.


I'm not ok with street crime. So I stay away from areas that are known for it. But maybe I'd be open to your idea of locking up those who MIGHT be perpetuating it. Wouldn't that be the best way to get it under control?


Illogical - one is not like the other. And I never said people refusing to wear masks should be jailed - it’s enough that businesses and public buildings don’t allow them to stay.


I was referring to locking up healthy people in their homes. Don't think for one minute that this won't make its way to the supreme court. Quarantine is for sick people. Locking up healthy people is as un-American as it gets.

Re: Possibly of Everything Closing Down Across Northern Hemisphere in Fall 2020

Posted: Mon Sep 14, 2020 3:01 am
by GalaxyFlyer
One an intentional act to cause harm, the other is a disease and a natural cause of death which, I remind you, none will escape. I didn’t say “more important” a phrase not seen in my quote.

Re: Possibly of Everything Closing Down Across Northern Hemisphere in Fall 2020

Posted: Mon Sep 14, 2020 3:03 am
by ltbewr
The idea of a 'second wave' or even a 'third wave' with Covid-19 is based on large part on the history of the Spanish Flu pandemic of just over 100 years ago. Look up the history of the pandemic in the USA, initial hot spots may have been from soldiers returning from WW I service in Europe where it started. Some cities like St. Louis had strong public health efforts, had much lower death rates than many other cities like Philadelphia where crowds were allowed and various public health efforts were weak, not enforced, it was very devastating. The Spanish Flu spread wildly and with great devastation in many rural communities throughout the USA as well. https://www.history.com/news/spanish-fl ... resurgence

Re: Possibly of Everything Closing Down Across Northern Hemisphere in Fall 2020

Posted: Mon Sep 14, 2020 3:04 am
by GalaxyFlyer
Aaron747 wrote:
TTailedTiger wrote:
Aaron747 wrote:

It’s not about any of that. Public health is about science. Guidelines are arrived at via consensus. Emotionally stable and secure adults do not worry about bogeymen lurking in every nook and cranny of life. I have been part of groups of people calling out a maskhole 3x in the last week and it’s simply ridiculous. We just want to do our shopping without dealing with someone else’s selfish projections and insecurities.


That's odd. I have seen nothing like that in Florida and we are far less civilized than California (or at least that's what Californians tell us). At my gym some wear masks and some of us don't. No one has made any arguments about it. I haven't seen arguments about masks anywhere else I go to either.


People take health seriously in my county. Very few obese people, lots of hiking trails, and farm fresh food in most restaurants. We’re not okay with high rates of infection like some of the morons in SoCal.


Sounds like a Nazi Rest Center—“you vill be the superior race, understand”.

Re: Possibly of Everything Closing Down Across Northern Hemisphere in Fall 2020

Posted: Mon Sep 14, 2020 3:04 am
by Aaron747
TTailedTiger wrote:
Aaron747 wrote:
TTailedTiger wrote:

I'm not ok with street crime. So I stay away from areas that are known for it. But maybe I'd be open to your idea of locking up those who MIGHT be perpetuating it. Wouldn't that be the best way to get it under control?


Illogical - one is not like the other. And I never said people refusing to wear masks should be jailed - it’s enough that businesses and public buildings don’t allow them to stay.


I was referring to locking up healthy people in their homes. Don't think for one minute that this won't make its way to the supreme court. Quarantine is for sick people. Locking up healthy people is as un-American as it gets.


It would be great to test in court since courts allow and often require scientific evidence. Since we cannot easily evaluate 'who is sick' in an instance like this with a novel contagion, public health authorities need to be able to make the call.

Re: Possibly of Everything Closing Down Across Northern Hemisphere in Fall 2020

Posted: Mon Sep 14, 2020 3:07 am
by TTailedTiger
Aaron747 wrote:
TTailedTiger wrote:
Aaron747 wrote:

Illogical - one is not like the other. And I never said people refusing to wear masks should be jailed - it’s enough that businesses and public buildings don’t allow them to stay.


I was referring to locking up healthy people in their homes. Don't think for one minute that this won't make its way to the supreme court. Quarantine is for sick people. Locking up healthy people is as un-American as it gets.


It would be great to test in court since courts allow and often require scientific evidence. Since we cannot easily evaluate 'who is sick' in an instance like this with a novel contagion, public health authorities need to be able to make the call.


It sounds like China may be a better fit for you than the US. Welding the doors shut to apartment buildings and unpublished execution data seems to fit your idea of "the greater good".

Re: Possibly of Everything Closing Down Across Northern Hemisphere in Fall 2020

Posted: Mon Sep 14, 2020 3:08 am
by GalaxyFlyer
Aaron747 wrote:
TTailedTiger wrote:
Aaron747 wrote:

Illogical - one is not like the other. And I never said people refusing to wear masks should be jailed - it’s enough that businesses and public buildings don’t allow them to stay.


I was referring to locking up healthy people in their homes. Don't think for one minute that this won't make its way to the supreme court. Quarantine is for sick people. Locking up healthy people is as un-American as it gets.


It would be great to test in court since courts allow and often require scientific evidence. Since we cannot easily evaluate 'who is sick' in an instance like this with a novel contagion, public health authorities need to be able to make the call.


Maybe we should bring back Justice Holmes to rule on quarantine as he did on eugenics—“three generations of imbeciles is enough”. There’s always been a streak of totalitarian, not to say Nazi, in the progressive mind.

Re: Possibly of Everything Closing Down Across Northern Hemisphere in Fall 2020

Posted: Mon Sep 14, 2020 3:45 am
by seb146
GalaxyFlyer wrote:
Aaron747 wrote:
TTailedTiger wrote:

I was referring to locking up healthy people in their homes. Don't think for one minute that this won't make its way to the supreme court. Quarantine is for sick people. Locking up healthy people is as un-American as it gets.


It would be great to test in court since courts allow and often require scientific evidence. Since we cannot easily evaluate 'who is sick' in an instance like this with a novel contagion, public health authorities need to be able to make the call.


Maybe we should bring back Justice Holmes to rule on quarantine as he did on eugenics—“three generations of imbeciles is enough”. There’s always been a streak of totalitarian, not to say Nazi, in the progressive mind.


In one generation, we went from 'WE HATE FASCISTS!!!" to "WE HATE ANTI FASCISTS!!!!" with the same people, so............

Canada and Mexico will gladly pay for the wall if MAGA continues his reign of lies. That will guarantee only one country in North America will close completely if science and adults are allowed to lead. If not, he will blame Canada and Mexico and the losers and suckers who die for dying. They were sick and old anyway so it was their fault, right?

Re: Possibly of Everything Closing Down Across Northern Hemisphere in Fall 2020

Posted: Mon Sep 14, 2020 3:53 am
by Aaron747
TTailedTiger wrote:
Aaron747 wrote:
TTailedTiger wrote:

I was referring to locking up healthy people in their homes. Don't think for one minute that this won't make its way to the supreme court. Quarantine is for sick people. Locking up healthy people is as un-American as it gets.


It would be great to test in court since courts allow and often require scientific evidence. Since we cannot easily evaluate 'who is sick' in an instance like this with a novel contagion, public health authorities need to be able to make the call.


It sounds like China may be a better fit for you than the US. Welding the doors shut to apartment buildings and unpublished execution data seems to fit your idea of "the greater good".


Nice try - I was referring to the 10th amendment and state police powers. I know from previous threads you like to pretend those don't exist, but whatever.

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC1528398/

Re: Possibly of Everything Closing Down Across Northern Hemisphere in Fall 2020

Posted: Mon Sep 14, 2020 3:58 am
by TTailedTiger
Aaron747 wrote:
TTailedTiger wrote:
Aaron747 wrote:

It would be great to test in court since courts allow and often require scientific evidence. Since we cannot easily evaluate 'who is sick' in an instance like this with a novel contagion, public health authorities need to be able to make the call.


It sounds like China may be a better fit for you than the US. Welding the doors shut to apartment buildings and unpublished execution data seems to fit your idea of "the greater good".


Nice try - I was referring to the 10th amendment and state police powers. I know from previous threads you like to pretend those don't exist, but whatever.

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC1528398/


You don't seem to think that is open to interpretation. Just whenever a politician gets the itch to bring the hammer down it should be ok?

Re: Possibly of Everything Closing Down Across Northern Hemisphere in Fall 2020

Posted: Mon Sep 14, 2020 4:01 am
by Aaron747
GalaxyFlyer wrote:
Aaron747 wrote:
TTailedTiger wrote:

That's odd. I have seen nothing like that in Florida and we are far less civilized than California (or at least that's what Californians tell us). At my gym some wear masks and some of us don't. No one has made any arguments about it. I haven't seen arguments about masks anywhere else I go to either.


People take health seriously in my county. Very few obese people, lots of hiking trails, and farm fresh food in most restaurants. We’re not okay with high rates of infection like some of the morons in SoCal.


Sounds like a Nazi Rest Center—“you vill be the superior race, understand”.


I don't think our scenery looks much like Bavaria. But your envy certainly is obvious from the many threads where you comment on our lovely state. I never talk about NH or ME or wherever you are. It's not my fault your weather is gloomy half the year.

Image

Re: Possibly of Everything Closing Down Across Northern Hemisphere in Fall 2020

Posted: Mon Sep 14, 2020 4:03 am
by Aaron747
TTailedTiger wrote:
Aaron747 wrote:
TTailedTiger wrote:

It sounds like China may be a better fit for you than the US. Welding the doors shut to apartment buildings and unpublished execution data seems to fit your idea of "the greater good".


Nice try - I was referring to the 10th amendment and state police powers. I know from previous threads you like to pretend those don't exist, but whatever.

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC1528398/


You don't seem to think that is open to interpretation. Just whenever a politician gets the itch to bring the hammer down it should be ok?


Of course not. See reply 27 and comment about scientific consensus. Paranoia does not supersede recommendations by experts. If decisions were made that way, the Apollo program would have been a massive failure.

Re: Possibly of Everything Closing Down Across Northern Hemisphere in Fall 2020

Posted: Mon Sep 14, 2020 4:06 am
by TTailedTiger
Aaron747 wrote:
TTailedTiger wrote:
Aaron747 wrote:

Nice try - I was referring to the 10th amendment and state police powers. I know from previous threads you like to pretend those don't exist, but whatever.

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC1528398/


You don't seem to think that is open to interpretation. Just whenever a politician gets the itch to bring the hammer down it should be ok?


Of course not. See reply 27 and comment about scientific consensus. Paranoia does not supersede recommendations by experts. If decisions were made that way, the Apollo program would have been a massive failure.


Scientific consensus? You mean like Dr Mengele and company?

Re: Possibly of Everything Closing Down Across Northern Hemisphere in Fall 2020

Posted: Mon Sep 14, 2020 4:14 am
by Aaron747
TTailedTiger wrote:
Aaron747 wrote:
TTailedTiger wrote:

You don't seem to think that is open to interpretation. Just whenever a politician gets the itch to bring the hammer down it should be ok?


Of course not. See reply 27 and comment about scientific consensus. Paranoia does not supersede recommendations by experts. If decisions were made that way, the Apollo program would have been a massive failure.


Scientific consensus? You mean like Dr Mengele and company?


Sorry, couldn't find any war criminals cited in these, but most of the conclusions are similar. Interestingly, none of them are talking about what you're talking about:

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7428176/

https://link.springer.com/article/10.10 ... 20-06067-8

https://www.researchgate.net/publicatio ... ne_15_2020

https://www.healthaffairs.org/doi/10.13 ... 2020.00818

https://files.fast.ai/papers/masks_lit_review.pdf

Re: Possibly of Everything Closing Down Across Northern Hemisphere in Fall 2020

Posted: Mon Sep 14, 2020 4:55 am
by tommy1808
TTailedTiger wrote:
Sweden didn't do anything


now that is a new level of nonsense. Sweden didn´t need to order much, because when they tell their population to socially distance and wear masks 9 out of 10 Swedes just go and do that.

Lacking lots of people disguising selfishness as freedom works quite well.

Employer´s (!) advised people to stay at home for two weeks when they had been to risky areas on February 27th, government agency confirmed there will be quarantine allowance for that. That was three weeks before your incompetent federal government even started placing meaningful orders for PPE. Which by the way also completely debunks Trumps "i wanted to avoid a panic" nonsense.

March 10th, still before the US government did anything meaningful on any front about Corona, the Swedish government told everyone to socially distance, and stop going into work/stay at home over even the mildest form of not feeling well. No order needed, people just did.

March 11th, , still before the US government did anything meaningful on any front about Corona, the Swedish government banns large gatherings.

March 16th, when your government just started ordering PPEs, Sweden told people to do home office when possible and schools other than elementary schools go into distant learning mode. By the end of the month half the country worked from home.

March 18th: government urges not to travel, domestic or abroad. Travel dropped 80-90%.

March 27th, ban on gatherings tightens, no art shows, cinema, religious meetings, demonstrations, competitive sports, fairs, markets or amusement parks.

that is barely "doing nothing", and if you look at mobility data and such that nothing accomplished much more than orders in the USA.

best regards
Thomas

Re: Possibly of Everything Closing Down Across Northern Hemisphere in Fall 2020

Posted: Mon Sep 14, 2020 9:44 am
by lugie
sierrakilo44 wrote:
It may have been a lower amount of testing the first time around, the increased rate of testing giving a lower CFR. Or those other reasons. Whatever it is it’s not causing the same problems as last time, the CFR would be roughly 0.3%, right within seasonal flu averages.

I’m not sure how prevalent mask wearing has been in Europe this August, not more than a minority unless mandated I would’ve thought?

If the death rate doesn’t increase markedly with the increase in cases in this European second wave it may be cause to show that further lockdowns/travel bans are unnecessary, and maybe the world can start getting back on a road towards normality without a vaccine that may or may not come for a few years yet.



I definitely do believe that higher rates of testing are contributing to the lower death rates this time around, but also from what is reported in France, Spain and Germany*, the profile of the average person tested positive has changed rather dramatically - I read somewhere that the average patient age in Spain right now is somewhere around 25/30 years lower than during the first wave.

    *The "second wave" spike in Germany is happening, but on a much lower level than France and Spain, we went from 300-400 daily new cases throughout June and July up to about 1300-1500 right now where it seems to have leveled off for the last 10 days or so now, and that is at ~1.75x the population of Spain and ~1.25x France.



As for mask wearing in Europe, I can again only attest for Germany as this summer was expectably a disappointment as far as international travel goes, but I wouldn't necessarily characterize it as "a minority only".
Sure, people wore it only where mandated (i.e. in enclosed public spaces, on public transportation, in stores,...) but in those places they were worn rather consistently by a vast majority of people. So I'm inclined to say that this has had an effect on keeping the numbers at bay.

That said I agree with your last paragraph, if those rather positive number trends hold up, more steps toward normality can and should be taken even before the arrival of a vaccine -> liberalizing international travel again, letting universities go back to in-person tuition etc., as long as, and only if, people wear their masks when on planes or in similar close-proximity situations.

Re: Possibly of Everything Closing Down Across Northern Hemisphere in Fall 2020

Posted: Mon Sep 14, 2020 10:20 am
by tommy1808
TTailedTiger wrote:
Aaron747 wrote:
TTailedTiger wrote:

You don't seem to think that is open to interpretation. Just whenever a politician gets the itch to bring the hammer down it should be ok?


Of course not. See reply 27 and comment about scientific consensus. Paranoia does not supersede recommendations by experts. If decisions were made that way, the Apollo program would have been a massive failure.


Scientific consensus? You mean like Dr Mengele and company?


also: when was Dr. Mengele ever representative for the scientific consensus?

best regards
Thomas