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94717
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Re: Peak oil 2019-2020

Tue Sep 22, 2020 9:13 am

Zeppi wrote:
Sokes wrote:
GalaxyFlyer wrote:
German potential for sun energy in winter is close to zero.


Yet here I am, effortlessly powering my entire house and a BEV with solar power in southern Germany. There are 30kWp on the roof which throw out 36.000kWh anually, the house needs roundabout 6000kWh for everything (including heating and hot water!) and the BEV another 1500kWh. The surplus is fed to the grid.
The PV modules have become so good that they don't really need direct sunlight any more, to such extent that it now even makes sense to install them on north facing roofs.
Even the dullest December day will yield 10-15% of peak power, more than enough!


That is a fantastic pension plan... I live just 1500 meters from Baltic sea south of Stockholm and even if November and December will be complicated I plan to be self dependent the rest of the year while we have more sun then the rest of the country.
 
flyguy89
Posts: 3614
Joined: Tue Feb 24, 2009 6:43 pm

Re: Peak oil 2019-2020

Tue Sep 22, 2020 10:09 am

tommy1808 wrote:
flyguy89 wrote:
frmrCapCadet wrote:
Hysteria is not why nuclear power plants are not being built. Costs are the main reason. Even in France they are taking too long and experiencing huge cost overruns. And as well the costs of dismantling plants at the end of their lives is high and going up. Not to mention no one knows what it is going to cost to dismantle plants gone wrong. I am suspecting the three Japanese plants may hit $1 Trillion.

So you subsidize them and invest in more cost-effective ways to harness that energy and drive down costs...you know, like everyone's telling us to do with renewables. Electricity grids are always going to need an always-on base source of power that renewables won't be able to provide. .


while i agree we should push Gen IV reactors for dealing with our nuclear waste alone, with electricity being a nice extra, it has long been shown that renewables can cover 100% across the European grid, without higher total cost. Same for heat.

best regards
Thomas

I'm not yet sold. At certain times, yes 100% can be covered by renewables with a glut of cheap clean power flooding the market. Demand and renewables power generation are hugely variable however. Energy costs in Germany are almost 50% higher than the European average, and just last summer the grid was facing down black-outs but for last-minute electricity imports, with Germany set to become a net energy importer in the future. As of the first half of 2020 ~48% energy sources in Germany came from renewable, so 100% wind/solar 100% of the time is still far from being shown in my view.
 
94717
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Re: Peak oil 2019-2020

Tue Sep 22, 2020 10:23 am

By the way a truck today can go 250 kilometers with load electric and fast recharging;

https://thedriven.io/2020/09/17/scania- ... ric-truck/

Image

That means that for most daliverences in cities electric based transport is now possible.
 
tommy1808
Posts: 14915
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Re: Peak oil 2019-2020

Tue Sep 22, 2020 10:34 am

flyguy89 wrote:
Energy costs in Germany are almost 50% higher than the European average,


and it also was before renewable energy was a thing, as that comes from essentially no above ground power lines outside of High Voltage transmission lines and reliability requirements.In Romania electicity is cheap, but they sit in the dark for 14 hours per year, vs. less than 30 in Germany (forced and planned), looking at forced disruptions only it is even more drastic.

You don´t pay for electricity, you pay for it being reliable when you plug something in.

and just last summer the grid was facing down black-outs but for last-minute electricity imports,


in reality buying surplus was simply cheaper than firing up peaker plants, we still got ~140% of peak demand in installed, demand following power plants installed after all, running or in standby ....

with Germany set to become a net energy importer in the future.


and yet in 2019 exports exceeded imports by a factor of 2.5

As of the first half of 2020 ~48% energy sources in Germany came from renewable, so 100% wind/solar 100% of the time is still far from being shown in my view.


well, of course you need to add some storage for that, make biogas plants load following, increase cross border connectivity (that is why HVDC is build all over Europe) and lots of excess capacity (which also comes in handy to make hydrogen).

If you can read German: https://www.ise.fraunhofer.de/content/d ... chland.pdf

best regards
Thomas
 
94717
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Re: Peak oil 2019-2020

Tue Sep 22, 2020 12:33 pm

tommy1808 wrote:
flyguy89 wrote:
Energy costs in Germany are almost 50% higher than the European average,


and it also was before renewable energy was a thing, as that comes from essentially no above ground power lines outside of High Voltage transmission lines and reliability requirements.In Romania electicity is cheap, but they sit in the dark for 14 hours per year, vs. less than 30 in Germany (forced and planned), looking at forced disruptions only it is even more drastic.

You don´t pay for electricity, you pay for it being reliable when you plug something in.

and just last summer the grid was facing down black-outs but for last-minute electricity imports,


in reality buying surplus was simply cheaper than firing up peaker plants, we still got ~140% of peak demand in installed, demand following power plants installed after all, running or in standby ....

with Germany set to become a net energy importer in the future.


and yet in 2019 exports exceeded imports by a factor of 2.5

As of the first half of 2020 ~48% energy sources in Germany came from renewable, so 100% wind/solar 100% of the time is still far from being shown in my view.


well, of course you need to add some storage for that, make biogas plants load following, increase cross border connectivity (that is why HVDC is build all over Europe) and lots of excess capacity (which also comes in handy to make hydrogen).

If you can read German: https://www.ise.fraunhofer.de/content/d ... chland.pdf

best regards
Thomas


In reality Hydro power in Norway and Sweden can be that battery if infrastructure is improved...
 
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Francoflier
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Re: Peak oil 2019-2020

Tue Sep 22, 2020 3:34 pm

KFLLCFII wrote:
There's no confusion...When referring to the alternatives of oil (and natural gas/propane) with regard to transportation, the end result is one which lacks internal combustion, and for all intents and purposes, therefore gains (requires) electrical propulsion instead. But, other than solar-powered paperweight vehicles, hydrogen fuel cell-powered vehicles, and nuclear-powered vehicles, none of the pure-electric vehicles lacking internal combustion can self-propel without connecting to a grid (or personal power plant/generator) for recurrent charging from an outside source. So if you remove oil (and natural gas/propane) from the propulsion equation, you must segue the topic to large-scale electrical energy, because pure-electric vehicles (overwhelmingly) cannot operate without it. And as I said previously (to compound the matter), if the method to generating that electrical energy (now with an order of magnitude higher demand to replace that 70% of oil going toward transportation) does not exist within the existing footprint of every conventional method AND match, let alone exceed, the cost, portability, density, longevity, and wide availability of every conventional method, then the economy who chooses such an alternative method by definition cannot compete with those economies which do not choose to follow down the same path.


Nope.

Of course, electric vehicles depend on the grid for energy and yes, the grid will have to be expanded to cope.
First of all, the electric grid has been expanding since its inception pretty much everywhere. It follows demand, and the increased demand from electric transportation will happen gradually enough that utilities will easily be able to plan it and keep up.

Now, as for the 'economy', electric power generation is quite efficient. Much more so than any vehicle's internal combustion engine. Even an oil-fired plant (there's very few of these) beats the efficiency
of an ICE by virtue of its size which allows for greater complexity and large scale systems which recover more energy from every ounce of fuel.
Of course, the grid is much more than just gas/coal/oil fired plant (the efficiency of any of which already beats that of an internal combustion engine by miles). There are renewables, nuclear and a host of other secondary means of generation depending on the locally available resources.
The flexibility of choosing and varying the generation methods makes a large scale electric grid the most efficient way to generate and distribute energy and it allows every nation to maximize the potential for local generation and usage of local resources, thus benefiting the local economy much more than just buying tanker loads of fossil fuels from abroad.
Taking this into account, the overall efficiency of generating energy through the grid, transmitting it across the country, storing it in a vehicle's batter and then converting it into motive power is way higher than that of extracting crude oil, shipping it across the planet, refining it, transporting it across the country by road then converting it to motive power through a hugely inefficient small engine.
While an average ICE would give around 30% efficiency from gas to wheel, I suspect that taking the whole chain from crude to wheel into account, we're probably close to single digit efficiency...
For reference, an electric motor delivers over 90% efficiency... Even taking into account the losses due to transforming, transmitting and generating, a grid based system will necessarily be more efficient, especially as a grid switches to renewables and locally produced energy.

There's no doubt that (forced) electrification in certain pockets of the world will happen, but so too must productivity and overall efficiency steadily decline in such pockets. Forcing the mass of vehicles onto a grid (while perhaps individually and instantaneously efficient against oil) by definition reduces individual and overall productivity, and is therefore inefficient as an economy. You're just not going to get the same GDP per capita against an economy which largely does not electrify, because your costs just cannot compete with theirs. Exports decline by way of lowered demand for your (relatively expensive) goods and services, which lowers your revenue, which lowers your profitability, which lowers your demand for skilled workers and puts your costs above your revenue, which leads to...a very bleak outlook...unless/until your economy gets back into the competitive edge that your competitor has...oil.


I still absolutely do not understand where your assessment that a grid based transportation system would be less 'productive' (?) and less economical and efficient comes from.
If you're a Middle East country and pump cheap crude oil straight from under your feet, that might be somewhat true though even then, extraction and refining has a non negligible cost.
For most of the World where this is not the case, the grid can be adapted to the best way of generating power for the concerned region / nation. The best way meaning using local resources or whichever resource can be acquired for cheap or which benefits the local economy the most. As I said, the multitude of ways that exist to generate electricity also allows for increase flexibility and localized production (even down at the consumer level). There is no economic downside to a grid compared to a purely oil-based transportation system where you are necessarily tied to a certain infrastructure and a limited amount of corporations and nations which control this particular industry. It must be great if you're one of these few nations but if you're anywhere else, that's tons of money flowing out of your borders to keep your country rolling. A grid allows much more control.

I wholeheartedly agree with regard to the grids.

But it still wouldn't address the competitive edge that economies based largely on self-powered vehicles have over economies based largely on grid-powered vehicles.

Get a nuclear cell safely and efficiently down to the combined size and cost of an average internal-combustion car/truck/semi engine and fuel tank, and give it the immediate power and range of such, and you'll knock the competitive edge off oil.


You have this backwards. I start to see where your misunderstanding comes from...
Large scale generation is always more efficient than small scale generation. A nuclear powerplant will always be more efficient than a hypothetical tiny one you'd stick inside a car. Ditto an oil, plant, coal or whatever plant you can think of. This increased efficiency would likely override the losses incurred in electrical transformation, transmission, storage and mechanical transformation.
Of course, the beauty of a grid is that, once again, you can power it with whatever is more efficient/available/affordable.
There is no inherent 'competitive economic edge' to self-powered vehicles over grid power vehicles, quite the contrary.

The one thing I have to say about the economies of switching to the grid for transportation is that governments which use fuel tax as part of their income will have to switch to a different taxation system to compensate... Not that governments ever lack creativity when it comes to finding new and improved ways of taxing people... :irked:
 
tommy1808
Posts: 14915
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Re: Peak oil 2019-2020

Tue Sep 22, 2020 5:18 pm

Francoflier wrote:
KFLLCFII wrote:
There's no confusion...When referring to the alternatives of oil (and natural gas/propane) with regard to transportation, the end result is one which lacks internal combustion, and for all intents and purposes, therefore gains (requires) electrical propulsion instead. But, other than solar-powered paperweight vehicles, hydrogen fuel cell-powered vehicles, and nuclear-powered vehicles, none of the pure-electric vehicles lacking internal combustion can self-propel without connecting to a grid (or personal power plant/generator) for recurrent charging from an outside source. So if you remove oil (and natural gas/propane) from the propulsion equation, you must segue the topic to large-scale electrical energy, because pure-electric vehicles (overwhelmingly) cannot operate without it. And as I said previously (to compound the matter), if the method to generating that electrical energy (now with an order of magnitude higher demand to replace that 70% of oil going toward transportation) does not exist within the existing footprint of every conventional method AND match, let alone exceed, the cost, portability, density, longevity, and wide availability of every conventional method, then the economy who chooses such an alternative method by definition cannot compete with those economies which do not choose to follow down the same path.


Taking this into account, the overall efficiency of generating energy through the grid, transmitting it across the country, storing it in a vehicle's batter and then converting it into motive power is way higher than that of extracting crude oil, shipping it across the planet, refining it, transporting it across the country by road then converting it to motive power through a hugely inefficient small engine.
While an average ICE would give around 30% efficiency from gas to wheel, I suspect that taking the whole chain from crude to wheel into account, we're probably close to single digit efficiency...
For reference, an electric motor delivers over 90% efficiency... Even taking into account the losses due to transforming, transmitting and generating, a grid based system will necessarily be more efficient, especially as a grid switches to renewables and locally produced energy


While it won't make BEV less efficient than ICE, with renewables dominating the grid your power may go:

DC-AC-HVAC-HVDC-HVAC-DC-storage-DC-AC-DC before it is actually in your cars battery. And sometime an additional layer if you have storage at home. That stuff adds up quite a bit. That is why hydrogen fuel cell cars may in some setups have lower overall cost and higher resource efficiency as BEV, as hydrogen is easy to transport "well" to vehicle without conversion steps, and far easier to to store than electric charge.

Best regards
Thomas
 
94717
Topic Author
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Re: Peak oil 2019-2020

Wed Sep 23, 2020 6:28 am

tommy1808 wrote:
Francoflier wrote:
KFLLCFII wrote:
There's no confusion...When referring to the alternatives of oil (and natural gas/propane) with regard to transportation, the end result is one which lacks internal combustion, and for all intents and purposes, therefore gains (requires) electrical propulsion instead. But, other than solar-powered paperweight vehicles, hydrogen fuel cell-powered vehicles, and nuclear-powered vehicles, none of the pure-electric vehicles lacking internal combustion can self-propel without connecting to a grid (or personal power plant/generator) for recurrent charging from an outside source. So if you remove oil (and natural gas/propane) from the propulsion equation, you must segue the topic to large-scale electrical energy, because pure-electric vehicles (overwhelmingly) cannot operate without it. And as I said previously (to compound the matter), if the method to generating that electrical energy (now with an order of magnitude higher demand to replace that 70% of oil going toward transportation) does not exist within the existing footprint of every conventional method AND match, let alone exceed, the cost, portability, density, longevity, and wide availability of every conventional method, then the economy who chooses such an alternative method by definition cannot compete with those economies which do not choose to follow down the same path.


Taking this into account, the overall efficiency of generating energy through the grid, transmitting it across the country, storing it in a vehicle's batter and then converting it into motive power is way higher than that of extracting crude oil, shipping it across the planet, refining it, transporting it across the country by road then converting it to motive power through a hugely inefficient small engine.
While an average ICE would give around 30% efficiency from gas to wheel, I suspect that taking the whole chain from crude to wheel into account, we're probably close to single digit efficiency...
For reference, an electric motor delivers over 90% efficiency... Even taking into account the losses due to transforming, transmitting and generating, a grid based system will necessarily be more efficient, especially as a grid switches to renewables and locally produced energy


While it won't make BEV less efficient than ICE, with renewables dominating the grid your power may go:

DC-AC-HVAC-HVDC-HVAC-DC-storage-DC-AC-DC before it is actually in your cars battery. And sometime an additional layer if you have storage at home. That stuff adds up quite a bit. That is why hydrogen fuel cell cars may in some setups have lower overall cost and higher resource efficiency as BEV, as hydrogen is easy to transport "well" to vehicle without conversion steps, and far easier to to store than electric charge.

Best regards
Thomas


When the grid is expanded and if we have a renewable energy production covering the needs we might not even consider efficiency as important anymore..
 
tommy1808
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Re: Peak oil 2019-2020

Wed Sep 23, 2020 8:43 am

olle wrote:
tommy1808 wrote:
Francoflier wrote:

Taking this into account, the overall efficiency of generating energy through the grid, transmitting it across the country, storing it in a vehicle's batter and then converting it into motive power is way higher than that of extracting crude oil, shipping it across the planet, refining it, transporting it across the country by road then converting it to motive power through a hugely inefficient small engine.
While an average ICE would give around 30% efficiency from gas to wheel, I suspect that taking the whole chain from crude to wheel into account, we're probably close to single digit efficiency...
For reference, an electric motor delivers over 90% efficiency... Even taking into account the losses due to transforming, transmitting and generating, a grid based system will necessarily be more efficient, especially as a grid switches to renewables and locally produced energy


While it won't make BEV less efficient than ICE, with renewables dominating the grid your power may go:

DC-AC-HVAC-HVDC-HVAC-DC-storage-DC-AC-DC before it is actually in your cars battery. And sometime an additional layer if you have storage at home. That stuff adds up quite a bit. That is why hydrogen fuel cell cars may in some setups have lower overall cost and higher resource efficiency as BEV, as hydrogen is easy to transport "well" to vehicle without conversion steps, and far easier to to store than electric charge.

Best regards
Thomas


When the grid is expanded and if we have a renewable energy production covering the needs we might not even consider efficiency as important anymore..


Energy efficiency we may not care about, cost efficiency we certainly will.

Best regards
Thomas
 
User avatar
Francoflier
Posts: 6300
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Re: Peak oil 2019-2020

Wed Sep 23, 2020 3:56 pm

tommy1808 wrote:
Francoflier wrote:
KFLLCFII wrote:
There's no confusion...When referring to the alternatives of oil (and natural gas/propane) with regard to transportation, the end result is one which lacks internal combustion, and for all intents and purposes, therefore gains (requires) electrical propulsion instead. But, other than solar-powered paperweight vehicles, hydrogen fuel cell-powered vehicles, and nuclear-powered vehicles, none of the pure-electric vehicles lacking internal combustion can self-propel without connecting to a grid (or personal power plant/generator) for recurrent charging from an outside source. So if you remove oil (and natural gas/propane) from the propulsion equation, you must segue the topic to large-scale electrical energy, because pure-electric vehicles (overwhelmingly) cannot operate without it. And as I said previously (to compound the matter), if the method to generating that electrical energy (now with an order of magnitude higher demand to replace that 70% of oil going toward transportation) does not exist within the existing footprint of every conventional method AND match, let alone exceed, the cost, portability, density, longevity, and wide availability of every conventional method, then the economy who chooses such an alternative method by definition cannot compete with those economies which do not choose to follow down the same path.


Taking this into account, the overall efficiency of generating energy through the grid, transmitting it across the country, storing it in a vehicle's batter and then converting it into motive power is way higher than that of extracting crude oil, shipping it across the planet, refining it, transporting it across the country by road then converting it to motive power through a hugely inefficient small engine.
While an average ICE would give around 30% efficiency from gas to wheel, I suspect that taking the whole chain from crude to wheel into account, we're probably close to single digit efficiency...
For reference, an electric motor delivers over 90% efficiency... Even taking into account the losses due to transforming, transmitting and generating, a grid based system will necessarily be more efficient, especially as a grid switches to renewables and locally produced energy


While it won't make BEV less efficient than ICE, with renewables dominating the grid your power may go:

DC-AC-HVAC-HVDC-HVAC-DC-storage-DC-AC-DC before it is actually in your cars battery. And sometime an additional layer if you have storage at home. That stuff adds up quite a bit. That is why hydrogen fuel cell cars may in some setups have lower overall cost and higher resource efficiency as BEV, as hydrogen is easy to transport "well" to vehicle without conversion steps, and far easier to to store than electric charge.

Best regards
Thomas


Very true. H2 does hold its own but also comes with its own set of issues, the first being that, just like oil distillates, it needs to be transported.
I am honestly not sure how production of compressed/chilled H2 + its transportation and storage would look efficiency and cost wise compared to electricity transformation (multiple times) and long distance transmission. A lot of it will depend on the future development of batteries although the current trend seems to favor grid+batteries. H2 may hold its own on larger vehicles such as truck, ships or even airplanes, but the recent Nikola debacle may indicate that it might be harder than expected to implement in real life.
I guess one of the big issues is that grid+battery relies on mostly existing infrastructure, while H2 would require a brand new one built from scratch.
 
tommy1808
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Joined: Thu Nov 21, 2013 3:24 pm

Re: Peak oil 2019-2020

Wed Sep 23, 2020 4:18 pm

Francoflier wrote:
tommy1808 wrote:
Francoflier wrote:

Taking this into account, the overall efficiency of generating energy through the grid, transmitting it across the country, storing it in a vehicle's batter and then converting it into motive power is way higher than that of extracting crude oil, shipping it across the planet, refining it, transporting it across the country by road then converting it to motive power through a hugely inefficient small engine.
While an average ICE would give around 30% efficiency from gas to wheel, I suspect that taking the whole chain from crude to wheel into account, we're probably close to single digit efficiency...
For reference, an electric motor delivers over 90% efficiency... Even taking into account the losses due to transforming, transmitting and generating, a grid based system will necessarily be more efficient, especially as a grid switches to renewables and locally produced energy


While it won't make BEV less efficient than ICE, with renewables dominating the grid your power may go:

DC-AC-HVAC-HVDC-HVAC-DC-storage-DC-AC-DC before it is actually in your cars battery. And sometime an additional layer if you have storage at home. That stuff adds up quite a bit. That is why hydrogen fuel cell cars may in some setups have lower overall cost and higher resource efficiency as BEV, as hydrogen is easy to transport "well" to vehicle without conversion steps, and far easier to to store than electric charge.

Best regards
Thomas


Very true. H2 does hold its own but also comes with its own set of issues, the first being that, just like oil distillates, it needs to be transported.
I am honestly not sure how production of compressed/chilled H2 + its transportation and storage would look efficiency and cost wise compared to electricity transformation (multiple times) and long distance transmission.


Since we don't build power plants close to the border the gas pipeline crosses, and then transport the power, but pipe the gas to where the electricity is needed and have the power plants there, I am fairly confident pipeline beats copper. And since pipelines beats ships doing detours around continents, and ships also still seem to beat copper, maybe by quite the margin.

But maybe we do find a cheap room temperature super conductor.

while H2 would require a brand new one built from scratch.


Old gas networks here can directly support H2, as the gas they where build for was mostly H2 (+CO). There will be lots of existing infrastructure where refit will be largely limited to swapping seals and sensors.

Best regards
Thomas
 
flyguy89
Posts: 3614
Joined: Tue Feb 24, 2009 6:43 pm

Re: Peak oil 2019-2020

Wed Sep 23, 2020 10:17 pm

tommy1808 wrote:
flyguy89 wrote:
Energy costs in Germany are almost 50% higher than the European average,


and it also was before renewable energy was a thing, as that comes from essentially no above ground power lines outside of High Voltage transmission lines and reliability requirements.In Romania electicity is cheap, but they sit in the dark for 14 hours per year, vs. less than 30 in Germany (forced and planned), looking at forced disruptions only it is even more drastic.

Comparatively expensive, yes, but costs have risen by roughly 25% since 2010 from an already elevated level.

tommy1808 wrote:
and just last summer the grid was facing down black-outs but for last-minute electricity imports,


in reality buying surplus was simply cheaper than firing up peaker plants, we still got ~140% of peak demand in installed, demand following power plants installed after all, running or in standby ....

If your neighbors have excess power to sell, sure. But as we've seen, that's not always the case.

tommy1808 wrote:
with Germany set to become a net energy importer in the future.


and yet in 2019 exports exceeded imports by a factor of 2.5

Consensus analysis is that in the years to come, Germany will become a net energy importer.

tommmy wrote:
As of the first half of 2020 ~48% energy sources in Germany came from renewable, so 100% wind/solar 100% of the time is still far from being shown in my view.


well, of course you need to add some storage for that, make biogas plants load following, increase cross border connectivity (that is why HVDC is build all over Europe) and lots of excess capacity (which also comes in handy to make hydrogen).

If you can read German: https://www.ise.fraunhofer.de/content/d ... chland.pdf

best regards
Thomas

The problem of course is that you can't build enough storage for it. The technology is just not there, and if it were, the amount of overbuild necessary to accommodate it would likely wipe out any environmental gains.
 
tommy1808
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Re: Peak oil 2019-2020

Thu Sep 24, 2020 5:20 am

flyguy89 wrote:
tommy1808 wrote:
flyguy89 wrote:
Energy costs in Germany are almost 50% higher than the European average,


and it also was before renewable energy was a thing, as that comes from essentially no above ground power lines outside of High Voltage transmission lines and reliability requirements.In Romania electicity is cheap, but they sit in the dark for 14 hours per year, vs. less than 30 in Germany (forced and planned), looking at forced disruptions only it is even more drastic.

Comparatively expensive, yes, but costs have risen by roughly 25% since 2010 from an already elevated level.


grid reliability has also improved since 2010.

And of course the statistics are skewed quite a bit. Average price for electricity is fairly useless here, since the market is absolutely liberal. Half the households here just use the local base supplier, and have no intentions to switch to a cheaper offering, even when that takes less than 5 minutes and can easily drop the price by 20%, even when you switch to 100% renewable....

tommy1808 wrote:
and just last summer the grid was facing down black-outs but for last-minute electricity imports,


in reality buying surplus was simply cheaper than firing up peaker plants, we still got ~140% of peak demand in installed, demand following power plants installed after all, running or in standby ....

If your neighbors have excess power to sell, sure. But as we've seen, that's not always the case.


So? You think 140% of peak demand capacity isn´t enough to cover 100% of it somehow?

The problem of course is that you can't build enough storage for it. The technology is just not there, and if it were, the amount of overbuild necessary to accommodate it would likely wipe out any environmental gains.


That depends.... if you go and use HFC and Redox batteries the existing storage capacity that is usable with minor modification is sufficient to store enough energy, all energy demand, not just electricity, for well over a month.
Its funny how people assume electricity storage for a couple of days is impossible, while living in countries storing ~4 month worth of Oil and Gas .... and those storage structures are the same you need for electricity, unless you want to put all in conventional batteries.

best regards
Thomas
 
Sokes
Posts: 2773
Joined: Sat Mar 09, 2019 4:48 pm

Re: Peak oil 2019-2020

Thu Sep 24, 2020 5:35 am

Zeppi wrote:
Sokes wrote:
German potential for sun energy in winter is close to zero.


Yet here I am, effortlessly powering my entire house and a BEV with solar power in southern Germany. There are 30kWp on the roof which throw out 36.000kWh anually, the house needs roundabout 6000kWh for everything (including heating and hot water!) and the BEV another 1500kWh. The surplus is fed to the grid.
The PV modules have become so good that they don't really need direct sunlight any more, to such extent that it now even makes sense to install them on north facing roofs.
Even the dullest December day will yield 10-15% of peak power, more than enough!

Agreed, "close to zero" is not precise.
How many % of your yearly production is in the four months from November to February?
How many kWh/ day in December when there is sun/ no sun?

I assume you have a well isolated house with heat pump. Do you also have a biomass heating for a few days a year, a huge hot water tank or a battery?
Heat stores better than electricity. That's why I'm so convinced of CCGTs for district heating with huge hot water tanks.

Nice video for you in German:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=45tIeaX_8hE

I find his concept quite convincing. But he also mentions that biomass is good, provided the main requirement is covered by solar heat.
The aim has to be to replace around 70-80% of heat/ electricity direct and find an alternative for the remaining 20-30%.

As there is more wind in Europe in winter solar still has a role to play in Europe. But I believe not in Germany. For Southern Europe it's o.k., for North Afrika even better.

Image
source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_ene ... pean_Union

I believe Germany should just import its energy needs. We did it with oil for many decades, why not with electricity?
Germany should instead contribute with research and early adoption of immature technology. If Germany can pull off with hydrogen electrolysis what it pulled off with solar cells, that would be quite useful.

Agreed, it was your mentality that pulled it off.
 
tommy1808
Posts: 14915
Joined: Thu Nov 21, 2013 3:24 pm

Re: Peak oil 2019-2020

Thu Sep 24, 2020 5:48 am

Sokes wrote:
As there is more wind in Europe in winter solar still has a role to play in Europe. But I believe not in Germany. For Southern Europe it's o.k., for North Afrika even better.


Solar in Winter on grid scale isn´t possible, on the individual house level it can be done. But that is not the only source of renewable energy, see last December:

Image

I believe Germany should just import its energy needs. We did it with oil for many decades, why not with electricity?


That already is the plan, while keeping enough capacity in country to make up if they can´t deliver.

best regards
Thomas
 
Sokes
Posts: 2773
Joined: Sat Mar 09, 2019 4:48 pm

Re: Peak oil 2019-2020

Thu Sep 24, 2020 11:23 am

tommy1808 wrote:
Sokes wrote:
I believe Germany should just import its energy needs. We did it with oil for many decades, why not with electricity?


That already is the plan, while keeping enough capacity in country to make up if they can´t deliver.

best regards
Thomas

Of course, I forgot to mention it.
Indeed as I posted earlier, we should not only provide backup for ourselves, but even to some extend for southern Europe.
Renewable installed capacity has to be around three to four times the actual need.
The rest of Europe needs somebody to buy excess renewable electricity in times of strong wind or around noon.
Germany's willingness to quit renewables can help other European countries to expand them. Only the HVDC connections are missing. That's pretty bad.

Supposed shut down dates of the last German nuclear power plants:
31. Dezember 2021: Kernkraftwerke Grohnde (1,36 GW), Brokdorf (1,41 GW) and Gundremmingen C (1,29GW), total 4 GW
31. Dezember 2022: Kernkraftwerke Isar 2 (1,41 GW), Neckarwestheim 2 (1,31 GW) und Emsland (1,33 GW), total 4 GW

By 2023 Europe's electricity prices will go up.
I sometimes wonder if the delay in HVDC lines is meant to delay the nuclear power phase out.
 
tommy1808
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Re: Peak oil 2019-2020

Thu Sep 24, 2020 12:53 pm

Sokes wrote:
tommy1808 wrote:
Sokes wrote:
I believe Germany should just import its energy needs. We did it with oil for many decades, why not with electricity?


That already is the plan, while keeping enough capacity in country to make up if they can´t deliver.

best regards
Thomas


By 2023 Europe's electricity prices will go up.
I sometimes wonder if the delay in HVDC lines is meant to delay the nuclear power phase out.


The funny bit about that is that it will make power for German consumers cheaper....

Best regards
Thomas
 
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Aesma
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Re: Peak oil 2019-2020

Thu Sep 24, 2020 3:54 pm

tommy1808 wrote:
Old gas networks here can directly support H2, as the gas they where build for was mostly H2 (+CO). There will be lots of existing infrastructure where refit will be largely limited to swapping seals and sensors.

Best regards
Thomas


But to use it in vehicles you need to compress it, so you need compressing plants at the end point of your pipeline (requiring electricity, incidentally).
 
tommy1808
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Re: Peak oil 2019-2020

Thu Sep 24, 2020 4:01 pm

Aesma wrote:
tommy1808 wrote:
Old gas networks here can directly support H2, as the gas they where build for was mostly H2 (+CO). There will be lots of existing infrastructure where refit will be largely limited to swapping seals and sensors.

Best regards
Thomas


But to use it in vehicles you need to compress it, so you need compressing plants at the end point of your pipeline (requiring electricity, incidentally).


Yup, but that's already included in every well to wheel efficiency of fuel cell vehicles, so from the grid perspective that is irrelevant.

Best regards
Thomas
 
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Braybuddy
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Re: Peak oil 2019-2020

Thu Sep 24, 2020 7:00 pm

tommy1808 wrote:
Braybuddy wrote:
Funny I remember reading an article in Flight International titled "Fuel State Finite", claiming that oil production was about to decline. That was around 1977.


That is what you get when it is not factored in that we may come up with more efficient ways of finding, reaching and extracting oil.....

Best regards
Thomas

But you can say that about any set of predictions. You never know what exactly you need to factor in. They are always predicated on unknown unknowns, such as technological developments, economic factors, political developments, pandemics etc. They are purely speculation.
 
Sokes
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Re: Peak oil 2019-2020

Fri Sep 25, 2020 12:47 am

tommy1808 wrote:
Image
best regards
Thomas

According to this graph there are days when one gets onshore wind, but not offshore wind. Conventional wisdom is that offshore is more reliable.
Maybe offshore gives more energy/ (installed kW x year), but has more days with nearly no contributions?
 
Zeppi
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Re: Peak oil 2019-2020

Fri Sep 25, 2020 9:36 am

Sokes wrote:
How many % of your yearly production is in the four months from November to February?


A measly 9.2% :D

How many kWh/ day in December when there is sun/ no sun?


That varies a lot day by day. A nice crisp very cold (keep in mind, the efficiency of PV modules increases the lower its temperature is) but sunny December day can yield just over 3kWh/kWp, days with 100kWh total yield happen because I live in a very favorable area, smack bang in the yellow belt on your map, and at an elevation of 720m. In typical winter inversion weather the valleys around are shrouded in fog, while up here it's sunny.
A really really bad gloomy day yields around 0.5kWh/kWp, which still gives a daily total of 15kWh. Still more than I need which is around 9-11kWh per day in winter.

I assume you have a well isolated house with heat pump. Do you also have a biomass heating for a few days a year, a huge hot water tank or a battery?
Heat stores better than electricity. That's why I'm so convinced of CCGTs for district heating with huge hot water tanks.


Indeed it is very well insulated, U value of 0.18, we call it a passivhaus plus. Hence I don't even need a heat pump, the heating is a direct electric heating in the ceiling. While less efficient than a heat pump which can have CoPs up to 5 (1kWh electric energy yields 5kWh of thermal energy), it makes more sense in my application due to the little heating I actually need. The entire house's energy management system is networked, so each component knows how much solar power is currently available, and will be available in the next three days based on weather forecasts. That way extra thermal energy can be stored in advance either in the ceiling or in the 500l hot water tank to bridge some bad days. The ceiling and walls inside are made mainly of clay which can store insane amounts of energy, the floor is black granite which absorbs pretty much the entire spectrum of light and so warms up just by sunlight coming in through the large windows. Both together combined with the insulation create an extreme thermal inertia, it doesn't really matter if it's -25C or +35C outside, inside it's always a comfy +21C without requiring much heating or cooling.
There is also a battery, a LiFePO4 with 10kWh capacity to have enough power for the nights. Last year the entire house drew a total of 26.8kWh from the grid, while feeding 28,566.9kWh to it.

The technology really is there to easily build energetically autonomous homes, even with a huge surplus, but it's being inhibited by a lot of factors even here in supposedly "green high tech Germany". Of course most builders and contractors don't want to install a system from which they get no further income. The maintenance costs are zero, which isn't the case with other heating systems. Also there are no mechanical parts like with heat pumps, so nothing can break really.
 
JJJ
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Re: Peak oil 2019-2020

Fri Sep 25, 2020 10:01 am

Zeppi wrote:
Sokes wrote:
GalaxyFlyer wrote:
German potential for sun energy in winter is close to zero.


Yet here I am, effortlessly powering my entire house and a BEV with solar power in southern Germany. There are 30kWp on the roof which throw out 36.000kWh anually,


How does that work out in terms of roof surface?
 
Zeppi
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Re: Peak oil 2019-2020

Fri Sep 25, 2020 10:26 am

JJJ wrote:
How does that work out in terms of roof surface?


Roughly 160 square metres. I'd have space for twice that, but going over 30kVA grid tied inverter power would require a so-called "wandlermessung" and several other buerocratic hurdles which I just didn't want to deal with, and the 30kWp is really more than enough already.
 
Sokes
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Re: Peak oil 2019-2020

Sat Sep 26, 2020 5:46 am

Zeppi wrote:
Indeed it is very well insulated, U value of 0.18, we call it a passivhaus plus. Hence I don't even need a heat pump, the heating is a direct electric heating in the ceiling. While less efficient than a heat pump which can have CoPs up to 5
... The ceiling and walls inside are made mainly of clay ...large windows.
There is also a battery, a LiFePO4 with 10kWh capacity to have enough power for the nights.

From a grid perspective it's not desired that you deliver electricity in summer, but use most of the generated electricity during the coldest days for resistance heating.

I agree, for well insulated houses which need heat only in a few of the coldest days heat pumps aren't right.

You are of course an innovator. The value of your effort is to show the way much more than the CO2 you save.

For large scale application well isolated houses need biomass stoves.
A friend of mine has one in the hall with glass in front. His house is well insulated. He has a heat pump that uses air. On really cold days he keeps doors within the house open and uses his pellet stove.

Good point about the large windows. I believe a winter garden can be just as useful as thermal solar on the roof.
 
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Aesma
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Re: Peak oil 2019-2020

Sun Sep 27, 2020 12:20 pm

Personally I'm looking at buying a house and I want a wood stove, I'm not sure I want the house to be that insulated (passive). It never gets very cold here (Paris region) so I feel I would have a window opened all the time in such a house. I'd still want PV for various uses, including heating a pool.

Back closer to the topic, Total, one of the 7 sisters (supermajor oil companies on the planet), is closing another refinery, and converting it to the production of biofuel and bioplastics, with 0 crude oil input : https://uk.reuters.com/article/total-re ... KP6N2AW02N

Total is also buying and building renewables left and right (and has entered the electricity market, in France you can now get your electricity from them), the latest is a 3,3GW addition to its portfolio, with a goal of 25GW by 2025 : https://www.greentechmedia.com/articles ... ith-itself
 
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Francoflier
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Re: Peak oil 2019-2020

Sun Sep 27, 2020 4:24 pm

The topic of solar homes is fascinating, and certainly an interesting option for home owners going forward.

That said, increasingly fewer people around the planet live in actual homes, especially around cities where most of the energy is required.
A true solution to weaning the grid off of fossil and using more and more renewables will center around different forms of large scale energy storage, which can be done a variety of ways.
As electric vehicles become increasingly numerous and as they store much more energy than a typical place of dwelling actually requires, vehicle-to-grid may well become an interesting solution to the duck curve problem in the future.
 
Sokes
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Re: Peak oil 2019-2020

Sun Sep 27, 2020 5:04 pm

I don't believe in vehicle to grid unless a car hardly drives, so that age and not km becomes the limiting factor for the battery.
Fifteen years from now old car batteries may become important for grid support.
 
invertalon
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Re: Peak oil 2019-2020

Sun Sep 27, 2020 7:08 pm

I hope this means cheap fuel for years to come! Just picked up my new car (with a V8) the other day, which is thirsty for 93 octane.

I dig EVs and hybrids (I have a Camry hybrid as well), but its nice to have options. I'd hate to see everything be EV in 15-20 years. I hope they at least keep the performance and "fun" cars with at least the option for an ICE.
 
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Aesma
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Re: Peak oil 2019-2020

Sun Sep 27, 2020 9:25 pm

Well the problem is that EV will be unbeatable for performance. The only reason they're not already it in some circumstances is because of the heavy batteries.

I could see future supercars having swappable batteries, with one long range one, and one "performance" light one, that you would install depending on need. Or just get the light one because such cars rarely do long drives anyway.
 
tommy1808
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Re: Peak oil 2019-2020

Mon Sep 28, 2020 5:49 am

Sokes wrote:
I don't believe in vehicle to grid unless a car hardly drives, so that age and not km becomes the limiting factor for the battery.


:checkmark:
Why would a consumer pay a lot of money for each KWh storage available in his car, and then lend the capacity to the grid....??

Aesma wrote:
I could see future supercars having swappable batteries, with one long range one, and one "performance" light one, that you would install depending on need. Or just get the light one because such cars rarely do long drives anyway.


With a high performance car you can deplete even large batteries in Minutes, so unless you want to have it from one round around the Nordschleifen there is no application. Few BEV will make more than two rounds before needing to recharge if you apply their power.

best regards
Thomas
 
94717
Topic Author
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Re: Peak oil 2019-2020

Mon Jan 25, 2021 1:57 pm

2020 was the year when renewable sources generated more electric power then oil and gas;

---------------------

History made: Renewable energy surpassed fossil fuels for European electricity in 2020

The report, which has been tracking EU's power sector since 2015, found that renewables delivered 38% of electricity last year, compared to 37% delivered by fossil fuels.
The shift comes as other sources, such as wind and solar power, have risen in the European Union. Both sources have nearly doubled since 2015, and as of last year accounted for one-fifth of electricity generation in EU countries, the report found. It's also the reason why coal power declined 20% last year, making up only 13% of electricity generated in Europe.
"Rapid growth in wind and solar has forced coal into decline, but this is just the beginning," said Dave Jones, senior electricity analyst for Ember and lead author on the report, in a statement. "Europe is relying on wind and solar to ensure not only coal is phased out by 2030, but also to phase out gas generation, replace closing nuclear power plants, and to meet rising electricity demand from electric cars, heat pumps and electrolysers.​"

https://edition.cnn.com/2021/01/24/busi ... index.html
 
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Aesma
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Re: Peak oil 2019-2020

Mon Jan 25, 2021 2:03 pm

tommy1808 wrote:
Sokes wrote:
I don't believe in vehicle to grid unless a car hardly drives, so that age and not km becomes the limiting factor for the battery.


:checkmark:
Why would a consumer pay a lot of money for each KWh storage available in his car, and then lend the capacity to the grid....??

Aesma wrote:
I could see future supercars having swappable batteries, with one long range one, and one "performance" light one, that you would install depending on need. Or just get the light one because such cars rarely do long drives anyway.


With a high performance car you can deplete even large batteries in Minutes, so unless you want to have it from one round around the Nordschleifen there is no application. Few BEV will make more than two rounds before needing to recharge if you apply their power.

best regards
Thomas


Most supercars never see a circuit. They're used to go from one fancy part of town to another one (In Paris, that might be a few hundreds meters, on cobblestones...).
 
DTVG
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Re: Peak oil 2019-2020

Mon Jan 25, 2021 2:10 pm

Once Europe has recolonialized North Africa, they will build tons of solar plants to power Europe (Electricity and Hydrogen).
 
frmrCapCadet
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Re: Peak oil 2019-2020

Mon Jan 25, 2021 3:10 pm

Generally solar and wind farms pay a handsome fee to who ever owns the land on which they are located (likely the government in N Africa). Plus a fair bit of employment. I suspect those farms will also supply electricity at far lower rates wherever they are located. This is not likely to be a zero sum game.
 
94717
Topic Author
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Re: Peak oil 2019-2020

Mon Jan 25, 2021 4:19 pm

DTVG wrote:
Once Europe has recolonialized North Africa, they will build tons of solar plants to power Europe (Electricity and Hydrogen).


Perhaps marocco, libya and tunisia etc will use this to create a real non oil based economy with engineering universities and real jobs.

I think EU would see great interest to supporting this.
 
M564038
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Re: Peak oil 2019-2020

Mon Jan 25, 2021 5:21 pm

Numbers from Norway, which is furthest along in the electrification of the car fleet.

If all cars went electric(compared to no electric cars) this increases demand on the grid by 1.2% to 1.5%.

Not something to fuzz about.

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