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DIRECTFLT
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Do Republicans have the votes to confirm SCOTUS Justice in 2020?

Sun Sep 20, 2020 4:09 pm

Texas Senator Ted Cruz believes that the Republicans do have the votes to confirm a new SCOTUS Justice.

https://thehill.com/homenews/sunday-tal ... rt-nominee

RBG 50 Days -- Nominated on June 14 by President Clinton, and confirmed by the Senate on August 3rd. That was a 50 day process. If that time frame is not shortened, then that would put the Senate confirmation after the Nov. 3rd Election.

As for Mitch McConnell and other Republican Senators changing their stance from their 2016 decision to wait for the results of the election, to then appoint a Justice, well, I guess you could say their position has evolved, you know, like Bill Clinton and Joe Biden's position evolved from supporting the DOMA, to supporting Gay Marriage...

Senator Ted Cruz pointed out today on ABC's morning show, that when the same party has had the WH and the Senate, 17 of 19 times the Supreme Court vacancy was filled in an election year, and when the parties were different, the Supreme Court vacancy has only been filled only 2 out of 10 times in an election year...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eF60W6XJJRU
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Aaron747
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Re: Do Repulicans have the votes to confirm SCOTUS Justice in 2020?

Sun Sep 20, 2020 4:30 pm

If Cruz wants to play that game, independents and Dems can remind him that all of the recent appointments of conservative SCOTUS justices are by presidents who lost the popular vote. Also Cryz should explain why 2016 victory for Trump should count for lame duck appointment when WH approval is stuck in the low 40s three years running.

Perhaps we should just have a moderate SCOTUS bench in toto.

Keeping tally, Ernst indicated today she’s out. Collins is out. Murkowski is out. Gardner seems hesitant. Grassley is on record being very against a 2020 appointment and has been mum so far. Romney is probably on the fence and mum so far.
Last edited by Aaron747 on Sun Sep 20, 2020 4:35 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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seb146
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Re: Do Repulicans have the votes to confirm SCOTUS Justice in 2020?

Sun Sep 20, 2020 4:31 pm

It is too close to an election so no. By Republicans own admission, they can not be allowed this seat.

Unless that only applies to Obama......
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extender
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Re: Do Repulicans have the votes to confirm SCOTUS Justice in 2020?

Sun Sep 20, 2020 4:55 pm

I would say no. Do it after he is re-elected.
 
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Re: Do Repulicans have the votes to confirm SCOTUS Justice in 2020?

Sun Sep 20, 2020 7:06 pm

It’s a better campaign promise as red meat to Trump’s base, “vote for me and you’ll get Amy Barrett in February” than as a done deal. Also forces Dems to give a list of potentials. Judges and Justices has been the brightest light of Trump’s four years, but no one talks about it.
 
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Re: Do Repulicans have the votes to confirm SCOTUS Justice in 2020?

Sun Sep 20, 2020 7:32 pm

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/articl ... Court.html

https://www.miamiherald.com/news/politi ... est_latest

It would be interesting to see the reaction from Democrats if a Latina is nominated for the court. Would definitely help in Florida come November.
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stratosphere
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Re: Do Repulicans have the votes to confirm SCOTUS Justice in 2020?

Sun Sep 20, 2020 9:30 pm

seb146 wrote:
It is too close to an election so no. By Republicans own admission, they can not be allowed this seat.

Unless that only applies to Obama......


Well Obama did just that he appointed Merritt Garland in an election year it just didn't go his way with the Senate being in Republican hands. So now the Democrats are crying to Republican moderates to sit this one out even though Democrats are on record saying if they get the White House and the Senate they are going to expand the court. After the shit show the Democrats pulled on Kavenaugh I say Fk them . I hope Trump makes an appointment ASAP and McConnell take it to a vote and Murkowski and Collins did they take their oath to the Democratic party or what? If they sit this one out I hope their constituents run them out of office. Trump has every right to name a replacement for Ginsburg it's in the constitution. The Democrats play plenty of games when they are in the majority just like Republicans do .. What goes around comes around . I say full steam ahead on a replacement. I hope it is Amy Coney Barrett.
 
N583JB
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Re: Do Repulicans have the votes to confirm SCOTUS Justice in 2020?

Sun Sep 20, 2020 9:35 pm

The GOP will confirm Trump's nominee. The only question is whether it will be before or after the election. And let's not get things twisted, if the shoe were reversed the Democrats would be doing everything possible to ram their nominee through before January. Elections have consequences, and it would be irresponsible of the GOP to not use this opportunity to put their nominee on the SCOTUS.
 
DfwRevolution
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Re: Do Repulicans have the votes to confirm SCOTUS Justice in 2020?

Sun Sep 20, 2020 10:04 pm

seb146 wrote:
It is too close to an election so no. By Republicans own admission, they can not be allowed this seat.

Unless that only applies to Obama......


And according to Democrats, the sitting President must nominate a replacement and the Senate must act. Or does that only apply to Obama, too? :scratchchin:

Is it supposed to be some kind of “gotcha” that Republicans used an election to postpone an appointment from an opposing party and won’t postpone their own appointments? Republicans are using their institutional powers defined in the Constitution to advance the interests they were elected to exercise.
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Alias1024
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Re: Do Repulicans have the votes to confirm SCOTUS Justice in 2020?

Sun Sep 20, 2020 10:19 pm

I think the only correct answer to the question of the OP is ‘I don’t know.’ Two have already publicly said no. Only one more can vote no and the nomination pass, and there are probably a half dozen fence sitters.
It is a mistake to think you can solve any major problems with just potatoes.
 
T4thH
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Re: Do Repulicans have the votes to confirm SCOTUS Justice in 2020?

Sun Sep 20, 2020 10:33 pm

DfwRevolution wrote:
seb146 wrote:
It is too close to an election so no. By Republicans own admission, they can not be allowed this seat.

Unless that only applies to Obama......


And according to Democrats, the sitting President must nominate a replacement and the Senate must act. Or does that only apply to Obama, too? :scratchchin:

Is it supposed to be some kind of “gotcha” that Republicans used an election to postpone an appointment from an opposing party and won’t postpone their own appointments? Republicans are using their institutional powers defined in the Constitution to advance the interests they were elected to exercise.

Do not be stupid, of course Trump will take care, that the replacement will be performed as fast as possible, as it is good for him, so it is good for the USA, what of course is the same, as he is the USA. And of course this will be stated as smart move by his sect members, as they are no Suckers and Looser. With this not only the "Gleichschaltung" of the Republican Party and the Senate is already completed, additional he can perform the "Gleichschaltung" of the SCOTUS, essential steps for the completion of the "Machtergreifung". And of course, the "Senate" will in "vorauseilendem Gehorsam" finalize the replacement as fast as possible.
 
NIKV69
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Re: Do Repulicans have the votes to confirm SCOTUS Justice in 2020?

Mon Sep 21, 2020 12:29 am

seb146 wrote:
It is too close to an election so no. By Republicans own admission, they can not be allowed this seat.

Unless that only applies to Obama......


So you are saying that If Obama had the Senate when he nominated Garland the GOP could say it wasn't allowed? It's sheer lunacy.
90 Day Fiancé has taught me that Russian woman are excellent.
 
LabQuest
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Re: Do Repulicans have the votes to confirm SCOTUS Justice in 2020?

Mon Sep 21, 2020 1:13 am

Alias1024 wrote:
I think the only correct answer to the question of the OP is ‘I don’t know.’ Two have already publicly said no. Only one more can vote no and the nomination pass, and there are probably a half dozen fence sitters.


Then Pence comes in an makes the deciding vote in that case.
 
N867DA
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Re: Do Repulicans have the votes to confirm SCOTUS Justice in 2020?

Mon Sep 21, 2020 1:26 am

The answer is simple.

The next time Democrats have the Senate and White House unilaterally increase the size of the Supreme Court. Let's fully politicize the court and make it a de facto wing of the legislature, because that is what Republicans seem to want. So be it.

"Too close to an election" worked as a reason in 2016. It should hold today, regardless of which party holds what positions of power. If the rules change based on political opportunism, I think it is time for Democrats to pack the court or for some states to toss the towel and form their own more perfect unions. Sleazebags like Mitch McConnell have destroyed any semblance of good-faith negotiations.

The visions of America each party has grows farther and farther apart. The end of this road, barring some reconciliation, is political violence or secession.

Edit to add: Garland was not even allowed a floor vote. If he got a vote and the Senate rejected him, that would be more tolerable. The legislative body simply shut down. Honestly, I see no more reason to compromise with Republicans for any reason whatsoever anymore. Legislature and executive action will become more partisan and extreme until...(?)
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dmg626
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Re: Do Repulicans have the votes to confirm SCOTUS Justice in 2020?

Mon Sep 21, 2020 3:55 am

N867DA wrote:
The answer is simple.

The next time Democrats have the Senate and White House unilaterally increase the size of the Supreme Court. Let's fully politicize the court and make it a de facto wing of the legislature, because that is what Republicans seem to want. So be it.

"Too close to an election" worked as a reason in 2016. It should hold today, regardless of which party holds what positions of power. If the rules change based on political opportunism, I think it is time for Democrats to pack the court or for some states to toss the towel and form their own more perfect unions. Sleazebags like Mitch McConnell have destroyed any semblance of good-faith negotiations.

The visions of America each party has grows farther and farther apart. The end of this road, barring some reconciliation, is political violence or secession.

Edit to add: Garland was not even allowed a floor vote. If he got a vote and the Senate rejected him, that would be more tolerable. The legislative body simply shut down. Honestly, I see no more reason to compromise with Republicans for any reason whatsoever anymore. Legislature and executive action will become more partisan and extreme until...(?)



Where does the idea of increasing the court come from?
 
tommy1808
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Re: Do Repulicans have the votes to confirm SCOTUS Justice in 2020?

Mon Sep 21, 2020 4:29 am

dmg626 wrote:
N867DA wrote:
The answer is simple.

The next time Democrats have the Senate and White House unilaterally increase the size of the Supreme Court. Let's fully politicize the court and make it a de facto wing of the legislature, because that is what Republicans seem to want. So be it.

"Too close to an election" worked as a reason in 2016. It should hold today, regardless of which party holds what positions of power. If the rules change based on political opportunism, I think it is time for Democrats to pack the court or for some states to toss the towel and form their own more perfect unions. Sleazebags like Mitch McConnell have destroyed any semblance of good-faith negotiations.

The visions of America each party has grows farther and farther apart. The end of this road, barring some reconciliation, is political violence or secession.

Edit to add: Garland was not even allowed a floor vote. If he got a vote and the Senate rejected him, that would be more tolerable. The legislative body simply shut down. Honestly, I see no more reason to compromise with Republicans for any reason whatsoever anymore. Legislature and executive action will become more partisan and extreme until...(?)



Where does the idea of increasing the court come from?


its a time honored tradition in the USA to change the number of judges if the supreme court is out of whack. Since 1789 the court had 6 judges, then 7 starting 1807, then 9 from 1837 on, 10 since 1863, then back to 7 in 1866, back to 9 in 1869 and than FDR wanted up to 15, essentially to cut out the old judges from relevance. Congress didn´t play ball.

best regards
Thomas
Well, there is prophecy in the bible after all: 2 Timothy 3:1-6
 
apodino
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Re: Do Repulicans have the votes to confirm SCOTUS Justice in 2020?

Mon Sep 21, 2020 4:55 am

N867DA wrote:
The answer is simple.

The next time Democrats have the Senate and White House unilaterally increase the size of the Supreme Court. Let's fully politicize the court and make it a de facto wing of the legislature, because that is what Republicans seem to want. So be it.


Actually, a wing of the Legislature is exactly what the Republicans are trying to get the court away from, and back to a body that interprets the law as written and does not legislate from the bench. You can say what you want to about issues like Same Sex Marriage, and Abortion. These are issues that should have been decided by the legislative branch, not forced on us by an unelected judiciary. One of my biggest pet peeves with Democrats and those on the left is on their view of the courts. Roe Vs Wade has become a litmus test for those on the left. This is inappropriate. If the democrats want to protect Roe VS Wade, pass a damn bill when you control congress. Likewise, why has no bill passed congress to overturn the Defense of Marriage act since Obergfell? That should be a slam dunk bill. I saw no attempt by Pelosi to do so when the Democrats had Congress and Obama was in the White House. You can't simply put judges on the court because you want certain rulings. (And in fairness, Abortion Foes are very guilty of the same thing as well) When you do so, as a legislator you are usurping your own legislative power to the Judiciary, and allowing the Supreme Court to become political.

What I think has happened in recent years is politicians fear tough votes so much that they will just not do any work at all to protect their jobs, and let the Supreme Court decide everything. And this is not the way the founding fathers wanted it at all. And what we have had has led to major corruption, and the power struggle we have today. It should be noted that Ginsburg was approved almost unanimously, as was Scalia when he was first appointed.

As a voter who doesn't like Trump, I might actually consider voting for Biden if and only if I could be assured that Trump's nominee would get confirmed. My reasoning is this. I knew that Ginsberg's replacement would have be nominated soon. I want the new justice to be in the mold of someone like Clarence Thomas or Neil Gorsuch. If such a person gets on, I think the supreme court will be in good hands for a while and I don't have to fear a potential Biden nominee down the road to replace Steven Breyer. (Who probably retires if Biden is elected) The court no longer is a big issue for me, and so I can focus on all the other issues and I no longer would have a good reason to keep Trump in office. But rest assured, if a Trump appointee is somehow blocked, the Democrats can kiss my vote goodbye.
 
tommy1808
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Re: Do Repulicans have the votes to confirm SCOTUS Justice in 2020?

Mon Sep 21, 2020 5:05 am

apodino wrote:
This is inappropriate. If the democrats want to protect Roe VS Wade, pass a damn bill when you control congress. Likewise, why has no bill passed congress to overturn the Defense of Marriage act since Obergfell? That should be a slam dunk bill. I saw no attempt by Pelosi to do so when the Democrats had Congress and Obama was in the White House..


Why make a law if the law of the land already says that? That would be redundant. In principle a decision recognizing a right can´t be overturned, because the theory is that you have those rights for being a human, and that would turn it on its head and clearly put that decision on judges.

And the supreme court already seems quite off neutral:
Image

source: https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/wh ... eme-court/

best regrads
Thomas
Well, there is prophecy in the bible after all: 2 Timothy 3:1-6
 
Alias1024
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Re: Do Repulicans have the votes to confirm SCOTUS Justice in 2020?

Mon Sep 21, 2020 5:31 am

LabQuest wrote:
Alias1024 wrote:
I think the only correct answer to the question of the OP is ‘I don’t know.’ Two have already publicly said no. Only one more can vote no and the nomination pass, and there are probably a half dozen fence sitters.


Then Pence comes in an makes the deciding vote in that case.

Why do you think I said they could have one more no vote and still confirm the nomination?
It is a mistake to think you can solve any major problems with just potatoes.
 
tommy1808
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Re: Do Repulicans have the votes to confirm SCOTUS Justice in 2020?

Mon Sep 21, 2020 5:35 am

Alias1024 wrote:
LabQuest wrote:
Alias1024 wrote:
I think the only correct answer to the question of the OP is ‘I don’t know.’ Two have already publicly said no. Only one more can vote no and the nomination pass, and there are probably a half dozen fence sitters.


Then Pence comes in an makes the deciding vote in that case.

Why do you think I said they could have one more no vote and still confirm the nomination?


29 are yet to say where they stand: https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics ... e_manual_9

Best regards
Thomas
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N867DA
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Re: Do Repulicans have the votes to confirm SCOTUS Justice in 2020?

Mon Sep 21, 2020 5:39 am

apodino wrote:
N867DA wrote:
The answer is simple.

The next time Democrats have the Senate and White House unilaterally increase the size of the Supreme Court. Let's fully politicize the court and make it a de facto wing of the legislature, because that is what Republicans seem to want. So be it.


Actually, a wing of the Legislature is exactly what the Republicans are trying to get the court away from, and back to a body that interprets the law as written and does not legislate from the bench. You can say what you want to about issues like Same Sex Marriage, and Abortion. These are issues that should have been decided by the legislative branch, not forced on us by an unelected judiciary. One of my biggest pet peeves with Democrats and those on the left is on their view of the courts. Roe Vs Wade has become a litmus test for those on the left. This is inappropriate. If the democrats want to protect Roe VS Wade, pass a damn bill when you control congress. Likewise, why has no bill passed congress to overturn the Defense of Marriage act since Obergfell? That should be a slam dunk bill. I saw no attempt by Pelosi to do so when the Democrats had Congress and Obama was in the White House. You can't simply put judges on the court because you want certain rulings. (And in fairness, Abortion Foes are very guilty of the same thing as well) When you do so, as a legislator you are usurping your own legislative power to the Judiciary, and allowing the Supreme Court to become political.

What I think has happened in recent years is politicians fear tough votes so much that they will just not do any work at all to protect their jobs, and let the Supreme Court decide everything. And this is not the way the founding fathers wanted it at all. And what we have had has led to major corruption, and the power struggle we have today. It should be noted that Ginsburg was approved almost unanimously, as was Scalia when he was first appointed.

As a voter who doesn't like Trump, I might actually consider voting for Biden if and only if I could be assured that Trump's nominee would get confirmed. My reasoning is this. I knew that Ginsberg's replacement would have be nominated soon. I want the new justice to be in the mold of someone like Clarence Thomas or Neil Gorsuch. If such a person gets on, I think the supreme court will be in good hands for a while and I don't have to fear a potential Biden nominee down the road to replace Steven Breyer. (Who probably retires if Biden is elected) The court no longer is a big issue for me, and so I can focus on all the other issues and I no longer would have a good reason to keep Trump in office. But rest assured, if a Trump appointee is somehow blocked, the Democrats can kiss my vote goodbye.


Many fundamental rights are derived not from legislature but from the judiciary. Interracial marriage, same-sex marriage, abortion rights, privacy rights, criminal defense rights, religious freedom (both freedom of and freedom from), rights of speech for minors, DACA,and access to private and public amenities is from the court--because the legislature has no incentive to pass laws on these "edge" cases. Consider there are some Southern states whose citizens would still vote to ban interracial marriage.

My favorite justice is Earl Warren. RBG comes close. I'd like this seat to be filled by someone else cut from RBG's cloth and expect no less from my government--and if the majority keeps moving the goalposts I'd say it's high time some states treat SCOTUS rulings like speed limits and marijuana. The confidence in the system is broken as is; what's a few more unspoken exemptions?
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casinterest
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Re: Do Repulicans have the votes to confirm SCOTUS Justice in 2020?

Mon Sep 21, 2020 1:23 pm

tommy1808 wrote:
apodino wrote:
This is inappropriate. If the democrats want to protect Roe VS Wade, pass a damn bill when you control congress. Likewise, why has no bill passed congress to overturn the Defense of Marriage act since Obergfell? That should be a slam dunk bill. I saw no attempt by Pelosi to do so when the Democrats had Congress and Obama was in the White House..


Why make a law if the law of the land already says that? That would be redundant. In principle a decision recognizing a right can´t be overturned, because the theory is that you have those rights for being a human, and that would turn it on its head and clearly put that decision on judges.

And the supreme court already seems quite off neutral:
Image

source: https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/wh ... eme-court/

best regrads
Thomas



I find this chart somewhat deceptive. So far the new conservative majority has been ruling based on precedent. However another conservative voice will push that into a dangerous corner.
Twenty years from now you will be more disappointed by the things you didn't do than by the ones you did..So throw off the bowlines. Sail away from the safe harbor. Catch the trade winds in your sails. Explore. Dream. Discover.--Mark Twain
 
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Re: Do Repulicans have the votes to confirm SCOTUS Justice in 2020?

Mon Sep 21, 2020 1:30 pm

DfwRevolution wrote:
And according to Democrats, the sitting President must nominate a replacement and the Senate must act. Or does that only apply to Obama, too?.

That would have been the correct way. However, a new precedent has been established and as such, THIS action no longer holds.

Notice how the goalposts have been moved:

2016: The people should have a say in who gets nominated so the Senate will not confirm and will wait for the new president to take office (never mind that many prominent GOP Senators were threatening leaving the seat vacant if Clinton won).
2020: Well, the thing is that there has never been a situation where the party holding the Senate and White House withholds consent because of an election so we see no reason to not confirm. The 2016 circumstance was different because the presidency and the Senate were held by different parties.

If McConnell had carried out the vote and simply voted "no" for Garland, then your statement carries all the weight in the world. As McConnell refused, you and other Republicans can't seriously use the "Senate must act" excuse, nor can they seriously say that leaving the court at 4-4 would create a Constitutional crisis (funny, it didn't create one for the nearly 12 months that it sat deadlocked at 4-4 during Obama's last year).
"You haven't seen a tree until you've seen its shadow from the sky."
 
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casinterest
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Re: Do Repulicans have the votes to confirm SCOTUS Justice in 2020?

Mon Sep 21, 2020 1:34 pm

einsteinboricua wrote:
DfwRevolution wrote:
And according to Democrats, the sitting President must nominate a replacement and the Senate must act. Or does that only apply to Obama, too?.

That would have been the correct way. However, a new precedent has been established and as such, THIS action no longer holds.

Notice how the goalposts have been moved:

2016: The people should have a say in who gets nominated so the Senate will not confirm and will wait for the new president to take office (never mind that many prominent GOP Senators were threatening leaving the seat vacant if Clinton won).
2020: Well, the thing is that there has never been a situation where the party holding the Senate and White House withholds consent because of an election so we see no reason to not confirm. The 2016 circumstance was different because the presidency and the Senate were held by different parties.

If McConnell had carried out the vote and simply voted "no" for Garland, then your statement carries all the weight in the world. As McConnell refused, you and other Republicans can't seriously use the "Senate must act" excuse, nor can they seriously say that leaving the court at 4-4 would create a Constitutional crisis (funny, it didn't create one for the nearly 12 months that it sat deadlocked at 4-4 during Obama's last year).



The Republicans are working to destroy their own precedent. They have become like the bad kids in grade school that only wanted to play games by their rules, and you went along because you needed someone to even the teams out. Then they don't play by their own rules, and everyone quits the game.

This is what the GOP is currently doing to the US.
Twenty years from now you will be more disappointed by the things you didn't do than by the ones you did..So throw off the bowlines. Sail away from the safe harbor. Catch the trade winds in your sails. Explore. Dream. Discover.--Mark Twain
 
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einsteinboricua
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Re: Do Repulicans have the votes to confirm SCOTUS Justice in 2020?

Mon Sep 21, 2020 1:39 pm

As for the OP's question: two GOP Senators have said "no". Assuming all 47 Dems and 2 Inds stick together and vote "no", that means they need 2 more GOP votes to flip "no". My money is on Gardner and Romney. AZ's McSally and IA's Ernst have both said they should go ahead with the vote. NC's Tillis will be on the fence, but will likely say "yes" in order to shore up his right base. IA's Grassley has previously said the Senate should hold off, but in the end, partisanship will carry the day and I can see him voting "yes". That leaves SC's Graham, though he's shown that he's not a man of his word (given his 2016 statement to use his words against him, and as chair of the judiciary committee, it's up to him to take up the nomination).

Unless there's another true institutionalist out there, willing to be held to their word and compromise until after the election, only Gardner and Romney seem to be the two missing GOP votes to sink any nomination. They could all cut a deal and ask to wait until after the November election, where if Trump is elected, then they'll relent and proceed; otherwise, Biden gets to pick.

But also important to note: quite interesting how the Senate thinks confirming a justice is more important than shoring up the economy. #Priorities
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NIKV69
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Re: Do Repulicans have the votes to confirm SCOTUS Justice in 2020?

Mon Sep 21, 2020 1:40 pm

casinterest wrote:
einsteinboricua wrote:
DfwRevolution wrote:
And according to Democrats, the sitting President must nominate a replacement and the Senate must act. Or does that only apply to Obama, too?.

That would have been the correct way. However, a new precedent has been established and as such, THIS action no longer holds.

Notice how the goalposts have been moved:

2016: The people should have a say in who gets nominated so the Senate will not confirm and will wait for the new president to take office (never mind that many prominent GOP Senators were threatening leaving the seat vacant if Clinton won).
2020: Well, the thing is that there has never been a situation where the party holding the Senate and White House withholds consent because of an election so we see no reason to not confirm. The 2016 circumstance was different because the presidency and the Senate were held by different parties.

If McConnell had carried out the vote and simply voted "no" for Garland, then your statement carries all the weight in the world. As McConnell refused, you and other Republicans can't seriously use the "Senate must act" excuse, nor can they seriously say that leaving the court at 4-4 would create a Constitutional crisis (funny, it didn't create one for the nearly 12 months that it sat deadlocked at 4-4 during Obama's last year).


The Republicans are working to destroy their own precedent. They have become like the bad kids in grade school that only wanted to play games by their rules, and you went along because you needed


someone to even the teams out. Then they don't play by their own rules, and everyone quits the game.

This is what the GOP is currently doing to the US.


McConnell just saved the taxpayers a whole of time and money. As Garland would have not been confirmed. If everyone is so confident the GOP Senators will break with Trump than his pick will not be confirmed and we can move on and do it again post election if he wins. Like I said if this was Obama in the white house with his re-election looming the Dems would not be saying lets wait and they would be shoving his pick through if they had the senate. Remember elections have consequences.
90 Day Fiancé has taught me that Russian woman are excellent.
 
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casinterest
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Re: Do Repulicans have the votes to confirm SCOTUS Justice in 2020?

Mon Sep 21, 2020 1:48 pm

NIKV69 wrote:
casinterest wrote:
einsteinboricua wrote:
That would have been the correct way. However, a new precedent has been established and as such, THIS action no longer holds.

Notice how the goalposts have been moved:

2016: The people should have a say in who gets nominated so the Senate will not confirm and will wait for the new president to take office (never mind that many prominent GOP Senators were threatening leaving the seat vacant if Clinton won).
2020: Well, the thing is that there has never been a situation where the party holding the Senate and White House withholds consent because of an election so we see no reason to not confirm. The 2016 circumstance was different because the presidency and the Senate were held by different parties.

If McConnell had carried out the vote and simply voted "no" for Garland, then your statement carries all the weight in the world. As McConnell refused, you and other Republicans can't seriously use the "Senate must act" excuse, nor can they seriously say that leaving the court at 4-4 would create a Constitutional crisis (funny, it didn't create one for the nearly 12 months that it sat deadlocked at 4-4 during Obama's last year).


The Republicans are working to destroy their own precedent. They have become like the bad kids in grade school that only wanted to play games by their rules, and you went along because you needed


someone to even the teams out. Then they don't play by their own rules, and everyone quits the game.

This is what the GOP is currently doing to the US.


McConnell just saved the taxpayers a whole of time and money. As Garland would have not been confirmed. If everyone is so confident the GOP Senators will break with Trump than his pick will not be confirmed and we can move on and do it again post election if he wins. Like I said if this was Obama in the white house with his re-election looming the Dems would not be saying lets wait and they would be shoving his pick through if they had the senate. Remember elections have consequences.


Trump wasn't elected by the majority of this country. What is occurring now is Tyranny. The backlash will be severe.
Twenty years from now you will be more disappointed by the things you didn't do than by the ones you did..So throw off the bowlines. Sail away from the safe harbor. Catch the trade winds in your sails. Explore. Dream. Discover.--Mark Twain
 
extender
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Re: Do Repulicans have the votes to confirm SCOTUS Justice in 2020?

Mon Sep 21, 2020 1:53 pm

casinterest wrote:
I find this chart somewhat deceptive. So far the new conservative majority has been ruling based on precedent. However another conservative voice will push that into a dangerous corner.


Facts not in evidence. You have no idea what a new justice would do, much less without having anyone nominated yet.
 
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Re: Do Repulicans have the votes to confirm SCOTUS Justice in 2020?

Mon Sep 21, 2020 1:54 pm

Democrats cannot unify to do even good things, Republicans always unity to do anything, including bad things.
All posts are just opinions.
 
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Re: Do Repulicans have the votes to confirm SCOTUS Justice in 2020?

Mon Sep 21, 2020 1:58 pm

extender wrote:
casinterest wrote:
I find this chart somewhat deceptive. So far the new conservative majority has been ruling based on precedent. However another conservative voice will push that into a dangerous corner.


Facts not in evidence. You have no idea what a new justice would do, much less without having anyone nominated yet.


No, but we know that the GOP Senate is making litmus tests to get sycophants in place, that adhere to a document written in stone rather than the fabric of the nation.
Twenty years from now you will be more disappointed by the things you didn't do than by the ones you did..So throw off the bowlines. Sail away from the safe harbor. Catch the trade winds in your sails. Explore. Dream. Discover.--Mark Twain
 
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Re: Do Repulicans have the votes to confirm SCOTUS Justice in 2020?

Mon Sep 21, 2020 2:03 pm

Roberts was a GOP selection, and he is more of a centrist. We can use a bit less hysterics.
 
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casinterest
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Re: Do Repulicans have the votes to confirm SCOTUS Justice in 2020?

Mon Sep 21, 2020 2:08 pm

extender wrote:
Roberts was a GOP selection, and he is more of a centrist. We can use a bit less hysterics.


Not a matter of hysterics,

It's a matter of lies and deception. Something Trump and McConnell excel at.
Twenty years from now you will be more disappointed by the things you didn't do than by the ones you did..So throw off the bowlines. Sail away from the safe harbor. Catch the trade winds in your sails. Explore. Dream. Discover.--Mark Twain
 
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Re: Do Repulicans have the votes to confirm SCOTUS Justice in 2020?

Mon Sep 21, 2020 2:26 pm

NIKV69 wrote:
casinterest wrote:
einsteinboricua wrote:
That would have been the correct way. However, a new precedent has been established and as such, THIS action no longer holds.

Notice how the goalposts have been moved:

2016: The people should have a say in who gets nominated so the Senate will not confirm and will wait for the new president to take office (never mind that many prominent GOP Senators were threatening leaving the seat vacant if Clinton won).
2020: Well, the thing is that there has never been a situation where the party holding the Senate and White House withholds consent because of an election so we see no reason to not confirm. The 2016 circumstance was different because the presidency and the Senate were held by different parties.

If McConnell had carried out the vote and simply voted "no" for Garland, then your statement carries all the weight in the world. As McConnell refused, you and other Republicans can't seriously use the "Senate must act" excuse, nor can they seriously say that leaving the court at 4-4 would create a Constitutional crisis (funny, it didn't create one for the nearly 12 months that it sat deadlocked at 4-4 during Obama's last year).


The Republicans are working to destroy their own precedent. They have become like the bad kids in grade school that only wanted to play games by their rules, and you went along because you needed


someone to even the teams out. Then they don't play by their own rules, and everyone quits the game.

This is what the GOP is currently doing to the US.


McConnell just saved the taxpayers a whole of time and money. As Garland would have not been confirmed. If everyone is so confident the GOP Senators will break with Trump than his pick will not be confirmed and we can move on and do it again post election if he wins. Like I said if this was Obama in the white house with his re-election looming the Dems would not be saying lets wait and they would be shoving his pick through if they had the senate. Remember elections have consequences.


Well, the "no Supreme court justice in an election year" rule didn't exist before 2016, so until Republicans made it up confirming a new judge would have been fine.

Expanding the court would have been iffy without an election year confirmation, but if the GOP pushes through with its rule violation, expanding it to 11 judges would just restore the balance of the court as if rules had been followed, and would hence be A OK.

best regards
Thomas
Well, there is prophecy in the bible after all: 2 Timothy 3:1-6
 
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Re: Do Repulicans have the votes to confirm SCOTUS Justice in 2020?

Mon Sep 21, 2020 2:38 pm

tommy1808 wrote:
Expanding the court would have been iffy without an election year confirmation, but if the GOP pushes through with its rule violation, ...


What rule is that?
 
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Re: Do Repulicans have the votes to confirm SCOTUS Justice in 2020?

Mon Sep 21, 2020 2:57 pm

extender wrote:
tommy1808 wrote:
Expanding the court would have been iffy without an election year confirmation, but if the GOP pushes through with its rule violation, ...


What rule is that?


No confirmation in an election year, explicitly applicable to President Donald Trump at the end of his first term: https://youtu.be/kw8SSQHQitg

Best regards
Thomas
Well, there is prophecy in the bible after all: 2 Timothy 3:1-6
 
extender
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Re: Do Repulicans have the votes to confirm SCOTUS Justice in 2020?

Mon Sep 21, 2020 3:11 pm

What rule? Link please?
 
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Re: Do Repulicans have the votes to confirm SCOTUS Justice in 2020?

Mon Sep 21, 2020 3:25 pm

Since so many Democrats now favor packing the court, President Trump should just expand it to 15 now and ram all seven through before January.
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Re: Do Repulicans have the votes to confirm SCOTUS Justice in 2020?

Mon Sep 21, 2020 3:32 pm

Ultimately I do not believe the Republican's will have the votes to support pushing the new Supreme Court nominee through. It'll be scorched earth from Trump of course on those Republican's but I don't think that will harm the four (at min) Republican Senators that will hold against the push.

This is what I am thinking, my opinion. I am trying to hold off making too much commentary on this as the politics were already inflamed and now it's just heading for plaid.

Tugg
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Re: Do Repulicans have the votes to confirm SCOTUS Justice in 2020?

Mon Sep 21, 2020 3:34 pm

extender wrote:
What rule? Link please?


I tried finding it in 2016, but couldn't. You will have to ask the GOP where they found that rule ....

Best regards
Thomas
Well, there is prophecy in the bible after all: 2 Timothy 3:1-6
 
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Re: Do Repulicans have the votes to confirm SCOTUS Justice in 2020?

Mon Sep 21, 2020 3:40 pm

tommy1808 wrote:
extender wrote:
What rule? Link please?


I tried finding it in 2016, but couldn't. You will have to ask the GOP where they found that rule ....

Best regards
Thomas


It is well known where the GOP pulled the rule from, and how they butchered it to their own selective interpretation.

https://www.businessinsider.com/joe-bid ... urt-2016-3

On Thursday, Biden said that statement, taken out of context, glosses over his main gripe from the time — that Bush nominated Thomas, an "extreme candidate," in 1991 without consulting his committee just four days after Justice Thurgood Marshall retired.

....
"They completely ignore the fact that, at the time, I was speaking of the dangers of nominating an extreme candidate without proper Senate consultation," he said. "They completely neglected to quote my unequivocal bottom line, so let me set the record straight as they say: I said and I quote 'if the president consults and cooperates with the Senate or moderates his selections, then his nominees may enjoy my support as did Justice Kennedy and Justice Souter,' end of quote.
"
Twenty years from now you will be more disappointed by the things you didn't do than by the ones you did..So throw off the bowlines. Sail away from the safe harbor. Catch the trade winds in your sails. Explore. Dream. Discover.--Mark Twain
 
LittleFokker
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Re: Do Repulicans have the votes to confirm SCOTUS Justice in 2020?

Mon Sep 21, 2020 3:49 pm

EA CO AS wrote:
Since so many Democrats now favor packing the court, President Trump should just expand it to 15 now and ram all seven through before January.


Expanding the court is a Congressional action. No way the House does it with Traitor still in power.

extender wrote:
Roberts was a GOP selection, and he is more of a centrist. We can use a bit less hysterics.


Roberts was a Bush Jr appointee, and was farther right at the time of his confirmation than he is now. He recognizes that he needs to be a swing vote now in order for the USSC to maintain its credibility. Unlike Thomas, Alito, or Cavanaugh, Roberts cares about the credibility of the Court.

einsteinboricua wrote:
As for the OP's question: two GOP Senators have said "no". Assuming all 47 Dems and 2 Inds stick together and vote "no", that means they need 2 more GOP votes to flip "no". My money is on Gardner and Romney. AZ's McSally and IA's Ernst have both said they should go ahead with the vote. NC's Tillis will be on the fence, but will likely say "yes" in order to shore up his right base. IA's Grassley has previously said the Senate should hold off, but in the end, partisanship will carry the day and I can see him voting "yes". That leaves SC's Graham, though he's shown that he's not a man of his word (given his 2016 statement to use his words against him, and as chair of the judiciary committee, it's up to him to take up the nomination).


Kelly is almost certain to defeat McSally in November, and because it's a special election, Kelly gets to be seated right away. So if we can get through the election and the Dems take the Senate, makes it a lot easier to have Biden make the selection.

Highly disappointing to see Lamar Alexander of TN, who is retiring, say he will vote for the justice. These assholes are just addicted to being party loyalists to the bitter end, even when there is no incentive to be one. Haven't heard yet from Pat Roberts of KS who is also retiring.
"All human activities are doomed to failure." - Jean Paul Sartre
 
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Re: Do Repulicans have the votes to confirm SCOTUS Justice in 2020?

Mon Sep 21, 2020 3:52 pm

It's not a rule. It was principle and precedent laid down by countless GOP Senators to block Garland. But it was never a rule, it was just straight up GOP lies on television directly to the American people. Not a single one of them said it was about the balance of power and because they held it vis a vis SCOTUS nominations well then Obama would have to eat crap and die. What they said was that it wouldn't be fair to the American People and that only the People had the "right" (this is the principle/precedent setting bit that Thomas is confusing with a "rule") to determine a SCOTUS pick in an election year. But Trump lies so directly to the American people every single day that the GOP has taken up lying as a core pillar of its party. And the incredible thing is that the more they lie the more the base loves them for it. It's part of Trump's process to shred the last remaining fabric of social decency in this country and chucking it right down the crapper along with his COVID lies. You think Trump was already the most divisive scumbag in American history? Man, we ain't seen nothing yet. His last few months in office are going to be a nuclear bomb and voters like Extender are going to get more and more aroused as the mushroom clouds detonate.
 
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Re: Do Repulicans have the votes to confirm SCOTUS Justice in 2020?

Mon Sep 21, 2020 4:19 pm

casinterest wrote:
extender wrote:
casinterest wrote:
I find this chart somewhat deceptive. So far the new conservative majority has been ruling based on precedent. However another conservative voice will push that into a dangerous corner.


Facts not in evidence. You have no idea what a new justice would do, much less without having anyone nominated yet.


No, but we know that the GOP Senate is making litmus tests to get sycophants in place, that adhere to a document written in stone rather than the fabric of the nation.


The Document written in Stone you refer to is the Constitution of the United States, and adhering to it doesn't always mean you adhere to the fabric of the nation. That is the job of Congress, not the Supreme Court.

tommy1808 wrote:
apodino wrote:
This is inappropriate. If the democrats want to protect Roe VS Wade, pass a damn bill when you control congress. Likewise, why has no bill passed congress to overturn the Defense of Marriage act since Obergfell? That should be a slam dunk bill. I saw no attempt by Pelosi to do so when the Democrats had Congress and Obama was in the White House..


Why make a law if the law of the land already says that? That would be redundant. In principle a decision recognizing a right can´t be overturned, because the theory is that you have those rights for being a human, and that would turn it on its head and clearly put that decision on judges.

And the supreme court already seems quite off neutral:
Image

source: https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/wh ... eme-court/

best regrads
Thomas


If the law of the land already says that, then point me to the date when congress passed said law, and it was either signed by the President or his veto was overridden? Or show me when that language that specifically says that was added to the constitution and ratified? I'm waiting.

The reason you pass the law is to prevent the exact situation you describe from happening. If congress passed a specific law to overturn the Defense of Marriage act and encode Same Sex Marriage into federal law, the justices would have to honor that. By not doing so, you leave the situation open that a supreme court could reinterpret the 14th amendment and overturn Obergferl and then all hell breaks loose. I point you to countries overseas. In places such as the UK, and other European countries, these laws were passed by Parliament and not the Courts. I would actually also argue that even if the court got the issue of Same Sex Marriage right in that the law discriminates against Gay People, they issued the wrong solution. The right way for the court to rule would have been to declare the institution of marriage itself unconstitutional and force Congress to solve it legislatively. Instead, the Supreme Court took it upon themselves to legislate the solution. That is not their job.

What people don't realize is that if a federal law passed to guarantee abortion rights or same sex marriage, justices like Thomas and Alito would actually respect the law because it was written that way, it does not go against the constitution (Unless they rule that the constitution protects unborn citizens), and would leave these laws in place. The fact that they don't push on these laws makes it much easier for these issues to be overturned, and it also gives the courts much more power than they should have, and it has allowed congress to be lazy and not do anything.
 
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Re: Do Repulicans have the votes to confirm SCOTUS Justice in 2020?

Mon Sep 21, 2020 4:26 pm

Aaron747 wrote:
If Cruz wants to play that game, independents and Dems can remind him that all of the recent appointments of conservative SCOTUS justices are by presidents who lost the popular vote. Also Cryz should explain why 2016 victory for Trump should count for lame duck appointment when WH approval is stuck in the low 40s three years running.

Perhaps we should just have a moderate SCOTUS bench in toto.

Keeping tally, Ernst indicated today she’s out. Collins is out. Murkowski is out. Gardner seems hesitant. Grassley is on record being very against a 2020 appointment and has been mum so far. Romney is probably on the fence and mum so far.


They might not vote before the election but Ernst and Collins are fighting for their seats and them voting for Trump's nominee will sink at least Collins. It would be interesting if they both lose will they just vote for the nominee in the lame duck session which as said is likely when this will happen. Same with Trump, if he loses he has nothing to lose.

I think time is the friend of the democrats here especially if the election takes a week or two to certify with the mail in ballots due to Covid19. Then you have thanksgiving, the holiday season and the new senate is confirmed in January.

Alias1024 wrote:
I think the only correct answer to the question of the OP is ‘I don’t know.’ Two have already publicly said no. Only one more can vote no and the nomination pass, and there are probably a half dozen fence sitters.


You need 4 GOP senators to say no.

extender wrote:
Roberts was a GOP selection, and he is more of a centrist. We can use a bit less hysterics.


He is very much a conservative but he is a principled one. He is definitely an economic conservative and more of a libertarian when it comes to social issues which explains his rulings against many things.
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Re: Do Repulicans have the votes to confirm SCOTUS Justice in 2020?

Mon Sep 21, 2020 4:32 pm

apodino wrote:
casinterest wrote:
extender wrote:

Facts not in evidence. You have no idea what a new justice would do, much less without having anyone nominated yet.


No, but we know that the GOP Senate is making litmus tests to get sycophants in place, that adhere to a document written in stone rather than the fabric of the nation.


The Document written in Stone you refer to is the Constitution of the United States, and adhering to it doesn't always mean you adhere to the fabric of the nation. That is the job of Congress, not the Supreme Court.



Congress and the two party system are failing the nation, and where they fail to act , the Constitution speaks.
Twenty years from now you will be more disappointed by the things you didn't do than by the ones you did..So throw off the bowlines. Sail away from the safe harbor. Catch the trade winds in your sails. Explore. Dream. Discover.--Mark Twain
 
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Re: Do Repulicans have the votes to confirm SCOTUS Justice in 2020?

Mon Sep 21, 2020 4:34 pm

StarAC17 wrote:

Alias1024 wrote:
I think the only correct answer to the question of the OP is ‘I don’t know.’ Two have already publicly said no. Only one more can vote no and the nomination pass, and there are probably a half dozen fence sitters.


You need 4 GOP senators to say no.


Yes I know. Please reread what I wrote.

Two already out. One more no would make three and the nomination would get through on Pence’s tiebreaker vote.
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Re: Do Repulicans have the votes to confirm SCOTUS Justice in 2020?

Mon Sep 21, 2020 5:01 pm

NIKV69 wrote:
seb146 wrote:
It is too close to an election so no. By Republicans own admission, they can not be allowed this seat.

Unless that only applies to Obama......


So you are saying that If Obama had the Senate when he nominated Garland the GOP could say it wasn't allowed? It's sheer lunacy.


I am saying the same Senators who insisted We The People decide because the vacancy came too close to the election are the same Senators who want to ram through a nominee because MAGA. There are two sets of rules. One for Republicans and one for the rest of us. They need to stick to the rules they made. It was Republicans who said "it is too close to the election" and "we need to let the people decide." It is as if Republicans do not trust us to make informed decisions and do not want the election at all. Anything to cling to power to continue to do nothing.
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Re: Do Repulicans have the votes to confirm SCOTUS Justice in 2020?

Mon Sep 21, 2020 5:12 pm

One thing not getting a lot of press but I think will be a major issue if Trump gets a nominee confirmed. The court has time and time again in recent years dodged any cases related to the second amendment. Reporting I read on this indicates that Roberts had told other justices that he would not necessarily rule on the side of the pro 2A groups in these cases, and that convinced one of the other conservative justices on the court (probably Alito or Gorsuch) to not take up the case. I would think if someone like Barrett or Lagoa is the woman, they would take up a case, and would probably get the holdout conservative to take up the case with them. Given the gun rights push in this country, I think the supreme court needs to provide clarity on what state and local governments can and cannot do with regard to the right to bear arms. Watch for such a case to be taken up in a future term.

I also find it funny that we have all this battle over the nominee to the court before we even know who the nominee is going to be. I get why this issue is so political, but can we at least wait until we know who this woman is before we figure out if they should be seated or not?
 
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Re: Do Repulicans have the votes to confirm SCOTUS Justice in 2020?

Mon Sep 21, 2020 5:24 pm

The Senate holds the keys. The Senate matters.

People say this is capricious or unfair, but the Senate has the ability to confirm (or not confirm) Supreme Court nominees. That's just the way it is. It is not a new thing or a conspiracy.
 
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Re: Do Repulicans have the votes to confirm SCOTUS Justice in 2020?

Mon Sep 21, 2020 5:24 pm

Alias1024 wrote:
StarAC17 wrote:

Alias1024 wrote:
I think the only correct answer to the question of the OP is ‘I don’t know.’ Two have already publicly said no. Only one more can vote no and the nomination pass, and there are probably a half dozen fence sitters.


You need 4 GOP senators to say no.


Yes I know. Please reread what I wrote.

Two already out. One more no would make three and the nomination would get through on Pence’s tiebreaker vote.


Yes I realized that afterwards, my bad.

This also means that we are 100% hopeful a blue dog like Joe Manchin actually votes with the democrats. IIRC he voted to confirm Kavanaugh.
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