Moderators: richierich, ua900, PanAm_DC10, hOMSaR

  • 1
  • 4
  • 5
  • 6
  • 7
  • 8
 
Gavros33
Posts: 14
Joined: Sun Jun 14, 2020 9:13 am

Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q4 2020

Mon Dec 07, 2020 4:56 am

art wrote:
What do you make of the 100,000 people hospitalised with COVID-19 in the US or the 2,000+ deaths of people with the virus each day? You exhort people to use common sense. Isn't it common sense to try to avoid becoming infected and to try to avoid infecting others? You sound like someone who thinks that because you have little risk of dying from it, it doesn't matter if you get it. I think it does matter if you get it. You may infect others, including people who are far more likely to succunb than you.


Yes but death occurs all the time and in every flu season, the rates differ depending on the severity of the strain. You say 2000 deaths a day, but what percentage of these are excess death numbers? Is it risking ruining an economy over. Unfortunately in modern capitalism, there is a balancing act between how much value we put on a human life and the economic impact that can occur in trying to preserve that life. This virus could be nature's way of weeding out the weak among us. As harsh as it sounds, that is life.

Of course we try to protect those as much as we can by distancing, hygiene, therapeutics etc, but we can't stop the world and our way of life to avoid deaths at any cost. Just not feasible
 
Kent350787
Posts: 2093
Joined: Wed May 28, 2008 12:06 am

Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q4 2020

Mon Dec 07, 2020 5:05 am

Gavros33 wrote:
Aaron747 wrote:
Your feelings don’t change the facts. According to our medical experts, the death rate is not the only measure of COVID’s seriousness. Many who have survived it are dealing with significant long term sequelae that are not fully understood. In a country like the US where insurance is both expensive and not guaranteed, that’s not at all good.


Why aren't these people being interviewed by the media then? To show us how ill they are and the lingering after affects of this virus. We know there's a lot of people that would jump at the opportunity to speak out about their experiences if it were true.


Here's an example from the Australian (non-Murdoch) media (may be paywalled). https://www.smh.com.au/national/the-12- ... 56jzu.html . The effects of the virus on the 54yo doctor are currently top of the papaer's homepage.
 
Newark727
Posts: 2602
Joined: Tue Dec 29, 2009 6:42 pm

Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q4 2020

Mon Dec 07, 2020 5:26 am

Gavros33 wrote:
Yes but death occurs all the time and in every flu season, the rates differ depending on the severity of the strain. You say 2000 deaths a day, but what percentage of these are excess death numbers? Is it risking ruining an economy over. Unfortunately in modern capitalism, there is a balancing act between how much value we put on a human life and the economic impact that can occur in trying to preserve that life. This virus could be nature's way of weeding out the weak among us. As harsh as it sounds, that is life.

Of course we try to protect those as much as we can by distancing, hygiene, therapeutics etc, but we can't stop the world and our way of life to avoid deaths at any cost. Just not feasible


With hindsight I think it's clear we're causing much more economic damage by letting this go on as long as we have. What's worse than shutting down all your hair salons and restaurants once? Doing it twice because everyone got cocky and started wringing their hands about the Dow Jones numbers and election polling trends.

And let's be honest - we gave up "nature's way" millennia ago. Nature's way is devouring your own young, dying of a broken tooth, and an waging an evolutionary arms race between male and female sex organs. Probability of reproductive success is neither morality nor policy.
 
Kent350787
Posts: 2093
Joined: Wed May 28, 2008 12:06 am

Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q4 2020

Mon Dec 07, 2020 5:45 am

Newark727 wrote:
Gavros33 wrote:
Yes but death occurs all the time and in every flu season, the rates differ depending on the severity of the strain. You say 2000 deaths a day, but what percentage of these are excess death numbers? Is it risking ruining an economy over. Unfortunately in modern capitalism, there is a balancing act between how much value we put on a human life and the economic impact that can occur in trying to preserve that life. This virus could be nature's way of weeding out the weak among us. As harsh as it sounds, that is life.

Of course we try to protect those as much as we can by distancing, hygiene, therapeutics etc, but we can't stop the world and our way of life to avoid deaths at any cost. Just not feasible


With hindsight I think it's clear we're causing much more economic damage by letting this go on as long as we have. What's worse than shutting down all your hair salons and restaurants once? Doing it twice because everyone got cocky and started wringing their hands about the Dow Jones numbers and election polling trends.

And let's be honest - we gave up "nature's way" millennia ago. Nature's way is devouring your own young, dying of a broken tooth, and an waging an evolutionary arms race between male and female sex organs. Probability of reproductive success is neither morality nor policy.


It will be interesting here in Australia (along with NZ) to assess the economic impact of Victoria's four month lockdown compared to all other states and territories operating reasonably normally (with social distancing and some restrictions on numbers). I expect that it will demonstrate the economic advantages of suppressing or eliminating the virus and living our COVID-normal, rather than the darstic impact of needing lockdowns (80% of national cases and 90% of deaths were in Victoria.

The economies of both countries are now growing once more, even though international tourism is closed.
 
cpd
Posts: 6823
Joined: Sat Jun 28, 2008 4:46 am

Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q4 2020

Mon Dec 07, 2020 8:17 am

It's official, COVID19 came from Australia, from Australian meat products:

https://www.news.com.au/world/coronavir ... 6b7b062d19

This is of course from The Global TImes, so take it with a grain of salt. :roll:
 
User avatar
Dano1977
Posts: 760
Joined: Wed Jun 25, 2008 2:49 pm

Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q4 2020

Mon Dec 07, 2020 11:38 am

Well after nearly 10 months of avoiding Covid-19 and taking precautions, I got a positive test on Saturday.

The symptoms I have are shortness of breath, tightness around the chest area, my muscles and bones feel like they are on fire and a temperature above 38 degrees. My wife also tested positive 2 days earlier. luckily, our children including my disabled daughter who is immunosuppressed have had negative tests and showing no symptoms.

On sunday I phoned my local on call dr as I was struggling to breath, and an ambulance was sent out to me. All my tests including blood/ox, BP and ecg showed normal, so I didn't require hospital treatment. I'm grateful for the NHS and the frontline workers who are putting themselves at risk to help out others.
 
User avatar
fallap
Posts: 1060
Joined: Thu Jan 15, 2009 11:36 am

Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q4 2020

Mon Dec 07, 2020 12:10 pm

Dano1977 wrote:
Well after nearly 10 months of avoiding Covid-19 and taking precautions, I got a positive test on Saturday.

The symptoms I have are shortness of breath, tightness around the chest area, my muscles and bones feel like they are on fire and a temperature above 38 degrees. My wife also tested positive 2 days earlier. luckily, our children including my disabled daughter who is immunosuppressed have had negative tests and showing no symptoms.

On sunday I phoned my local on call dr as I was struggling to breath, and an ambulance was sent out to me. All my tests including blood/ox, BP and ecg showed normal, so I didn't require hospital treatment. I'm grateful for the NHS and the frontline workers who are putting themselves at risk to help out others.


Get well soon :)
 
Reinhardt
Posts: 459
Joined: Thu Feb 22, 2018 5:05 pm

Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q4 2020

Mon Dec 07, 2020 1:31 pm

fallap wrote:
Dano1977 wrote:
Well after nearly 10 months of avoiding Covid-19 and taking precautions, I got a positive test on Saturday.

The symptoms I have are shortness of breath, tightness around the chest area, my muscles and bones feel like they are on fire and a temperature above 38 degrees. My wife also tested positive 2 days earlier. luckily, our children including my disabled daughter who is immunosuppressed have had negative tests and showing no symptoms.

On sunday I phoned my local on call dr as I was struggling to breath, and an ambulance was sent out to me. All my tests including blood/ox, BP and ecg showed normal, so I didn't require hospital treatment. I'm grateful for the NHS and the frontline workers who are putting themselves at risk to help out others.


Get well soon :)


Likewise get well soon.

I think this is one of the main things many people still don't get or simply refuse to understand. The biggest problem wit Covid aside from the death rate compared to Flu is the sheer number of Critical Care Beds in hospitals it's taking up..and the impact on other people this has. You've got people with cancer treatments, long term injury's etc all having treatments and operations delayed. Staff are overwhealmed in some situations and even staff get it (who would have thought?!), so then you lose the ability to provide the care in the first place. The US is now struggling to cope in some areas, and even Germany which got through incredibly well over the 1st outbreak and summer is now having real problems, particularly in Bavaria + parts of East Germany.

The state where I live we have between 300-500 infections per 100,000 right now. The last months there have been big protests by the anti- everything crowd. None wear masks, even in designated areas of a city you have to by law. A few hospitals have said they can't take any more covid patients - not that they don't have critical care beds available, they do but they are needed for other day to day critical patients.So they are being pushed to other parts of the state or country. Talks of a full on lockdown again are now starting, likely to happen before Christmas. So we could be in a situation with a vaccine within weeks of being ready to be deployed having a full lock down.

The amount of stupid, selfish people in the world these days knows no bounds. Even in countries which are apparently 'enlightened' and well educated.
 
User avatar
scbriml
Posts: 20190
Joined: Wed Jul 02, 2003 10:37 pm

Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q4 2020

Mon Dec 07, 2020 2:09 pm

Gavros33 wrote:
Can't believe people still think that this is the deadly plague the the media hyped up earlier in the year! For goodness sakes, look at the tiny death rate for anyone under 70 on the CDC site. Hardly anything to worry about. Are people seriously scared of contracting COVID if they're reasonably healthy and not above the average life expectancy age? I'm over hearing about it and I go about life as normal. Use some common sense people!


So nearly 300,000 dead Americans is just collateral? Just waiting to see the almost inevitable spike after thanksgiving.

Francoflier wrote:
The guy who doesn't wear a mask, doesn't practice social distancing, is surrounded by Covid-positive people and likes to wipe his snot all over his own face?
How could this possibly be?


I know, it's hard to understand, isn't it? :banghead:

Gavros33 wrote:
Yes but death occurs all the time and in every flu season, the rates differ depending on the severity of the strain.


According to the CDC's website, 359,000 Americans are estimated to have died of flu in the last 10 years. Covid-19 will easily beat that in one year. Yeah, it's just flu. :sarcastic:

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/in ... nce%202010.
 
T4thH
Posts: 1327
Joined: Thu Jun 06, 2019 11:17 pm

Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q4 2020

Mon Dec 07, 2020 3:26 pm

scbriml wrote:
Gavros33 wrote:
Can't believe people still think that this is the deadly plague the the media hyped up earlier in the year! For goodness sakes, look at the tiny death rate for anyone under 70 on the CDC site. Hardly anything to worry about. Are people seriously scared of contracting COVID if they're reasonably healthy and not above the average life expectancy age? I'm over hearing about it and I go about life as normal. Use some common sense people!


So nearly 300,000 dead Americans is just collateral? Just waiting to see the almost inevitable spike after thanksgiving.

Francoflier wrote:
The guy who doesn't wear a mask, doesn't practice social distancing, is surrounded by Covid-positive people and likes to wipe his snot all over his own face?
How could this possibly be?


I know, it's hard to understand, isn't it? :banghead:

Gavros33 wrote:
Yes but death occurs all the time and in every flu season, the rates differ depending on the severity of the strain.


According to the CDC's website, 359,000 Americans are estimated to have died of flu in the last 10 years. Covid-19 will easily beat that in one year. Yeah, it's just flu. :sarcastic:

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/in ... nce%202010.

Please note, always remind: I am regular in contact with the main responsible hospitals in Germany, involved in treatment of the serious cases (so university hospitals).
I am also informed regarding some ongoing observational trials regarding long term sequelae of COVID patients. It is to early and results can be expected in years....as we are talking about long term...

It can/has to be feared that for one death there will be one patient in working age, who regarding sequelae will stay handicapped and not any more able to work (or if, strongly handicapped).
COVID is different to all other known illnesses, ever seen, it is systemically attacking everything/all organs. It ages them, it harms them, it permanently destroys them. Heart, kidneys, lungs, skin, brain, hearing, visual system e.g. It can produces many small infarcts (by agglutinate of neutrophil Granulocytes, like small strokes, embolas, cardiac infarcts e.g.), to small, that they are recognized . But these parts behind the infarcts are destroyed. It is likely, that many, if not even all, who have been a serious COVID 19 case, will not get old. We are not talking about days or month, we are talking about several years or decades, someone will die earlier as regular to be expected.

But this is something, we will see in decades and not now.
 
art
Posts: 4221
Joined: Tue Feb 08, 2005 11:46 am

Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q4 2020

Mon Dec 07, 2020 4:05 pm

T4thH wrote:
Please note, always remind: I am regular in contact with the main responsible hospitals in Germany, involved in treatment of the serious cases (so university hospitals).
I am also informed regarding some ongoing observational trials regarding long term sequelae of COVID patients. It is to early and results can be expected in years....as we are talking about long term...

It can/has to be feared that for one death there will be one patient in working age, who regarding sequelae will stay handicapped and not any more able to work (or if, strongly handicapped).
COVID is different to all other known illnesses, ever seen, it is systemically attacking everything/all organs. It ages them, it harms them, it permanently destroys them. Heart, kidneys, lungs, skin, brain, hearing, visual system e.g. It can produces many small infarcts (by agglutinate of neutrophil Granulocytes, like small strokes, embolas, cardiac infarcts e.g.), to small, that they are recognized . But these parts behind the infarcts are destroyed. It is likely, that many, if not even all, who have been a serious COVID 19 case, will not get old. We are not talking about days or month, we are talking about several years or decades, someone will die earlier as regular to be expected.

But this is something, we will see in decades and not now.


This disease seems a lot nastier than expected. All the more reason to get everyone vaccinated ASAP.
 
T4thH
Posts: 1327
Joined: Thu Jun 06, 2019 11:17 pm

Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q4 2020

Mon Dec 07, 2020 4:45 pm

art wrote:
T4thH wrote:
Please note, always remind: I am regular in contact with the main responsible hospitals in Germany, involved in treatment of the serious cases (so university hospitals).
I am also informed regarding some ongoing observational trials regarding long term sequelae of COVID patients. It is to early and results can be expected in years....as we are talking about long term...

It can/has to be feared that for one death there will be one patient in working age, who regarding sequelae will stay handicapped and not any more able to work (or if, strongly handicapped).
COVID is different to all other known illnesses, ever seen, it is systemically attacking everything/all organs. It ages them, it harms them, it permanently destroys them. Heart, kidneys, lungs, skin, brain, hearing, visual system e.g. It can produces many small infarcts (by agglutinate of neutrophil Granulocytes, like small strokes, embolas, cardiac infarcts e.g.), to small, that they are recognized . But these parts behind the infarcts are destroyed. It is likely, that many, if not even all, who have been a serious COVID 19 case, will not get old. We are not talking about days or month, we are talking about several years or decades, someone will die earlier as regular to be expected.

But this is something, we will see in decades and not now.


This disease seems a lot nastier than expected. All the more reason to get everyone vaccinated ASAP.


I forgot the regular site effect of up to 10 to 20% of all COVID cases (also regular for light cases, seems even for "asymptotic cases", the "long Covid", so extreme fatigue, headache, breathlessness, and all the symptoms of "neurocovid" for weeks or moth after end of the disease, even often suddenly starting with several month delay after end. And i have forgotten one of the most new identified side effects, (part of the "long Covid") ...erectile dysfunction.

The extreme fatigue seems to be the side effect, the patients stresses most (of the "long Covid"). Extreme fatigue is pure horror.

The post "viral infection blues" is common after virus infections, (like flue e.g.) but with COVID, it seems to be more often and several times more worse than regular.
 
User avatar
Aaron747
Posts: 16451
Joined: Thu Aug 07, 2003 2:07 am

Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q4 2020

Mon Dec 07, 2020 5:16 pm

Gavros33 wrote:
art wrote:
What do you make of the 100,000 people hospitalised with COVID-19 in the US or the 2,000+ deaths of people with the virus each day? You exhort people to use common sense. Isn't it common sense to try to avoid becoming infected and to try to avoid infecting others? You sound like someone who thinks that because you have little risk of dying from it, it doesn't matter if you get it. I think it does matter if you get it. You may infect others, including people who are far more likely to succunb than you.


Yes but death occurs all the time and in every flu season, the rates differ depending on the severity of the strain. You say 2000 deaths a day, but what percentage of these are excess death numbers? Is it risking ruining an economy over. Unfortunately in modern capitalism, there is a balancing act between how much value we put on a human life and the economic impact that can occur in trying to preserve that life. This virus could be nature's way of weeding out the weak among us. As harsh as it sounds, that is life.

Of course we try to protect those as much as we can by distancing, hygiene, therapeutics etc, but we can't stop the world and our way of life to avoid deaths at any cost. Just not feasible


If you want the economy to be humming as close to normal as possible (and we all should), you should be actively advocating for 95% mask compliance. That is how Korea, Taiwan, and Australia have remained open. You can learn more about Taiwan's approach here:

https://fortune.com/2020/10/31/taiwan-b ... -response/

People's behavior is what's prolonging the crisis and harming the economy - full stop.
 
Kent350787
Posts: 2093
Joined: Wed May 28, 2008 12:06 am

Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q4 2020

Mon Dec 07, 2020 10:28 pm

Aaron747 wrote:
If you want the economy to be humming as close to normal as possible (and we all should), you should be actively advocating for 95% mask compliance. That is how Korea, Taiwan, and Australia have remained open. You can learn more about Taiwan's approach here:

https://fortune.com/2020/10/31/taiwan-b ... -response/

People's behavior is what's prolonging the crisis and harming the economy - full stop.


Just noting that, in Australia, masks have only been one element, and have only been mandatory in one State (and still are there in certain circumstances, even with "elimination" having been reached.

Lockdowns at various levels plus high initial mask compliance have been part of what's worked. But low caseloads allowing high testing plus effective tracing and isolating have been even more important here in Sydney.

Mask use on my PT trips today was at best 25%, but we have all but reached effective elimination. Recent cases have been hotel quarantine "breakouts", but it appears that mask use on PT by staff have limited the spread from at least one case.
 
Derico
Posts: 4505
Joined: Mon Dec 20, 1999 9:14 am

Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q4 2020

Mon Dec 07, 2020 11:46 pm

Image

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

Argentina's situation is much improved from 2 months ago, newly detected cases have fallen 70% and nearly 85% in some areas. Given the current trajectory in all of the countries of the above chart and others farther below but not shown, Argentina will drop out of the top 15 in a few weeks, and top 20 by later in the summer. It's a welcome development and with cases below 2000 projected in 12 days, it can be said the pandemic is not a major issue and one can focus now on other issues including mental health and recreation.
 
Kent350787
Posts: 2093
Joined: Wed May 28, 2008 12:06 am

Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q4 2020

Tue Dec 08, 2020 12:10 am

Derico wrote:
Argentina's situation is much improved from 2 months ago, newly detected cases have fallen 70% and nearly 85% in some areas. Given the current trajectory in all of the countries of the above chart and others farther below but not shown, Argentina will drop out of the top 15 in a few weeks, and top 20 by later in the summer. It's a welcome development and with cases below 2000 projected in 12 days, it can be said the pandemic is not a major issue and one can focus now on other issues including mental health and recreation.


Out of interest, what actions has Argentina been taking that has led to this improvement?
 
Gavros33
Posts: 14
Joined: Sun Jun 14, 2020 9:13 am

Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q4 2020

Tue Dec 08, 2020 12:48 am

T4thH wrote:
art wrote:
T4thH wrote:
Please note, always remind: I am regular in contact with the main responsible hospitals in Germany, involved in treatment of the serious cases (so university hospitals).
I am also informed regarding some ongoing observational trials regarding long term sequelae of COVID patients. It is to early and results can be expected in years....as we are talking about long term...

It can/has to be feared that for one death there will be one patient in working age, who regarding sequelae will stay handicapped and not any more able to work (or if, strongly handicapped).
COVID is different to all other known illnesses, ever seen, it is systemically attacking everything/all organs. It ages them, it harms them, it permanently destroys them. Heart, kidneys, lungs, skin, brain, hearing, visual system e.g. It can produces many small infarcts (by agglutinate of neutrophil Granulocytes, like small strokes, embolas, cardiac infarcts e.g.), to small, that they are recognized . But these parts behind the infarcts are destroyed. It is likely, that many, if not even all, who have been a serious COVID 19 case, will not get old. We are not talking about days or month, we are talking about several years or decades, someone will die earlier as regular to be expected.

But this is something, we will see in decades and not now.


This disease seems a lot nastier than expected. All the more reason to get everyone vaccinated ASAP.


I forgot the regular site effect of up to 10 to 20% of all COVID cases (also regular for light cases, seems even for "asymptotic cases", the "long Covid", so extreme fatigue, headache, breathlessness, and all the symptoms of "neurocovid" for weeks or moth after end of the disease, even often suddenly starting with several month delay after end. And i have forgotten one of the most new identified side effects, (part of the "long Covid") ...erectile dysfunction.

The extreme fatigue seems to be the side effect, the patients stresses most (of the "long Covid"). Extreme fatigue is pure horror.

The post "viral infection blues" is common after virus infections, (like flue e.g.) but with COVID, it seems to be more often and several times more worse than regular.


I appreciate the research going on and that the disease is still not fully understood. All I was getting at is the death rate is very small compared to the draconian measures put in place. Also the fact that the people putting these restrictions in place are not practicing what they preach (Nancy Polosi, Gavin Newsom, Cuomo etc). They don't appear frightened of this nasty virus. A lot just doesn't make sense.

But you're correct that we may not know the effects of severe cases until years down the track. Which could also be said of the vaccine, how do we know what it may lead to down the track in terms of severe and long lasting side effects? Same thing isn't it? Yet we have people queuing up for a rushed vaccine but cower at the though of catching COVID...
 
User avatar
Aaron747
Posts: 16451
Joined: Thu Aug 07, 2003 2:07 am

Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q4 2020

Tue Dec 08, 2020 1:10 am

Gavros33 wrote:
T4thH wrote:
art wrote:

This disease seems a lot nastier than expected. All the more reason to get everyone vaccinated ASAP.


I forgot the regular site effect of up to 10 to 20% of all COVID cases (also regular for light cases, seems even for "asymptotic cases", the "long Covid", so extreme fatigue, headache, breathlessness, and all the symptoms of "neurocovid" for weeks or moth after end of the disease, even often suddenly starting with several month delay after end. And i have forgotten one of the most new identified side effects, (part of the "long Covid") ...erectile dysfunction.

The extreme fatigue seems to be the side effect, the patients stresses most (of the "long Covid"). Extreme fatigue is pure horror.

The post "viral infection blues" is common after virus infections, (like flue e.g.) but with COVID, it seems to be more often and several times more worse than regular.


I appreciate the research going on and that the disease is still not fully understood. All I was getting at is the death rate is very small compared to the draconian measures put in place. Also the fact that the people putting these restrictions in place are not practicing what they preach (Nancy Polosi, Gavin Newsom, Cuomo etc). They don't appear frightened of this nasty virus. A lot just doesn't make sense.

But you're correct that we may not know the effects of severe cases until years down the track. Which could also be said of the vaccine, how do we know what it may lead to down the track in terms of severe and long lasting side effects? Same thing isn't it? Yet we have people queuing up for a rushed vaccine but cower at the though of catching COVID...


You’re fixated on the death rate. That is not the sole driver of the ‘draconian’ measures - it’s all about preserving the functionality and efficacy of the healthcare system. This has been repeated by public health officials time and again and many still don’t get it.

Vaccines should not have long lasting side effects due to the nature of the mRNA preparation. Again, that is what multiphase trials are for.
 
marcelh
Posts: 1575
Joined: Wed Jun 19, 2013 12:43 pm

Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q4 2020

Tue Dec 08, 2020 8:13 am

Aaron747 wrote:
Gavros33 wrote:
T4thH wrote:

I forgot the regular site effect of up to 10 to 20% of all COVID cases (also regular for light cases, seems even for "asymptotic cases", the "long Covid", so extreme fatigue, headache, breathlessness, and all the symptoms of "neurocovid" for weeks or moth after end of the disease, even often suddenly starting with several month delay after end. And i have forgotten one of the most new identified side effects, (part of the "long Covid") ...erectile dysfunction.

The extreme fatigue seems to be the side effect, the patients stresses most (of the "long Covid"). Extreme fatigue is pure horror.

The post "viral infection blues" is common after virus infections, (like flue e.g.) but with COVID, it seems to be more often and several times more worse than regular.


I appreciate the research going on and that the disease is still not fully understood. All I was getting at is the death rate is very small compared to the draconian measures put in place. Also the fact that the people putting these restrictions in place are not practicing what they preach (Nancy Polosi, Gavin Newsom, Cuomo etc). They don't appear frightened of this nasty virus. A lot just doesn't make sense.

But you're correct that we may not know the effects of severe cases until years down the track. Which could also be said of the vaccine, how do we know what it may lead to down the track in terms of severe and long lasting side effects? Same thing isn't it? Yet we have people queuing up for a rushed vaccine but cower at the though of catching COVID...


You’re fixated on the death rate. That is not the sole driver of the ‘draconian’ measures - it’s all about preserving the functionality and efficacy of the healthcare system. This has been repeated by public health officials time and again and many still don’t get it.

:checkmark:

Vaccines should not have long lasting side effects due to the nature of the mRNA preparation. Again, that is what multiphase trials are for.

This may become an inconvenient truth for people thinking vaccination will be the return to the old “normal”.
 
User avatar
seahawk
Posts: 10417
Joined: Fri May 27, 2005 1:29 am

Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q4 2020

Tue Dec 08, 2020 8:16 am

Kent350787 wrote:
Derico wrote:
Argentina's situation is much improved from 2 months ago, newly detected cases have fallen 70% and nearly 85% in some areas. Given the current trajectory in all of the countries of the above chart and others farther below but not shown, Argentina will drop out of the top 15 in a few weeks, and top 20 by later in the summer. It's a welcome development and with cases below 2000 projected in 12 days, it can be said the pandemic is not a major issue and one can focus now on other issues including mental health and recreation.


Out of interest, what actions has Argentina been taking that has led to this improvement?


Most likely summer. Better weather, people spending more time outside. Windows are open anyway...
 
User avatar
casinterest
Posts: 14144
Joined: Sat Feb 12, 2005 5:30 am

Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q4 2020

Tue Dec 08, 2020 3:02 pm

Meanwhile, in Florida. The governor is out using swat teams to intimidating data scientists and their kids.

https://www.yahoo.com/entertainment/flo ... 17467.html
 
MaverickM11
Posts: 18742
Joined: Thu Apr 06, 2000 1:59 pm

Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q4 2020

Wed Dec 09, 2020 3:23 pm

Francoflier wrote:
Confuscius wrote:
Rudy Giuliani tests positive for COVID-19. I don't know if he'll appeal his test results to the U.S. Supreme Court.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/12/06/politics/rudy-giuliani-coronavirus-positive/index.html


Rudy?

The guy who doesn't wear a mask, doesn't practice social distancing, is surrounded by Covid-positive people and likes to wipe his snot all over his own face?
How could this possibly be?

And now Jenna who--what exactly has she done again?--has a not zero chance of getting COVID from Rudy's farts. Announced on the same day SCOTUS denied their PA lawsuit with one sentence and zero dissent. #EliteStrikeForce This is why you don't hire reject lawyers from Liberty University. :rotfl:
 
ltbewr
Posts: 15858
Joined: Thu Jan 29, 2004 1:24 pm

Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q4 2020

Thu Dec 10, 2020 12:58 pm

The USA had over 3000 deaths from Covid-19 reported on December 11, 2020, the highest number since the pandemic started and likely to be higher into January. Meanwhile President Trump continues his obscene malfeasance with Covid-19, instead perusing a reversal of votes in several states to 'win' re-election. https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/one-d ... r-BB1bNsH0
 
User avatar
casinterest
Posts: 14144
Joined: Sat Feb 12, 2005 5:30 am

Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q4 2020

Fri Dec 11, 2020 7:01 pm

300,000 US deaths,

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

At the current rate, we could be well over 400,000 by the time Biden is sworn in.
 
frmrCapCadet
Posts: 5138
Joined: Thu May 29, 2008 8:24 pm

Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q4 2020

Fri Dec 11, 2020 8:07 pm

Trump assured us he wanted us to be #1, unfortunately we didn't realize which contest that he entered us in.
 
flyguy89
Posts: 3440
Joined: Tue Feb 24, 2009 6:43 pm

Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q4 2020

Fri Dec 11, 2020 8:14 pm

On the positive side, the outbreak in the upper midwest is easing. Case counts and hospitalizations have been steadily decreasing in ND, SD, WY, WI, IA, IL, MO, NE, CO and MI.

https://covidtracking.com/data/charts
 
Kent350787
Posts: 2093
Joined: Wed May 28, 2008 12:06 am

Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q4 2020

Sat Dec 12, 2020 12:25 am

flyguy89 wrote:
On the positive side, the outbreak in the upper midwest is easing. Case counts and hospitalizations have been steadily decreasing in ND, SD, WY, WI, IA, IL, MO, NE, CO and MI.

https://covidtracking.com/data/charts


Does anyone have any insight into whether this is as a result of direct action or simply progression? The growth of the outbreak in the Dakotas was one of the more shocking elements as the pandemic progressed, given they had so much time to put counter-measure in place.
 
User avatar
Francoflier
Posts: 5937
Joined: Wed Oct 31, 2001 12:27 pm

Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q4 2020

Sat Dec 12, 2020 3:39 am

Kent350787 wrote:
flyguy89 wrote:
On the positive side, the outbreak in the upper midwest is easing. Case counts and hospitalizations have been steadily decreasing in ND, SD, WY, WI, IA, IL, MO, NE, CO and MI.

https://covidtracking.com/data/charts


Does anyone have any insight into whether this is as a result of direct action or simply progression? The growth of the outbreak in the Dakotas was one of the more shocking elements as the pandemic progressed, given they had so much time to put counter-measure in place.


I think that ultimately, it is hard to determine.
Politicians like to congratulate themselves on their mitigation measures (which are justified in many cases) when case counts go down, but at the end of the day, viruses also naturally progress though waves which come and go on their own.
 
flyguy89
Posts: 3440
Joined: Tue Feb 24, 2009 6:43 pm

Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q4 2020

Sat Dec 12, 2020 4:31 am

Francoflier wrote:
Kent350787 wrote:
flyguy89 wrote:
On the positive side, the outbreak in the upper midwest is easing. Case counts and hospitalizations have been steadily decreasing in ND, SD, WY, WI, IA, IL, MO, NE, CO and MI.

https://covidtracking.com/data/charts


Does anyone have any insight into whether this is as a result of direct action or simply progression? The growth of the outbreak in the Dakotas was one of the more shocking elements as the pandemic progressed, given they had so much time to put counter-measure in place.


I think that ultimately, it is hard to determine.
Politicians like to congratulate themselves on their mitigation measures (which are justified in many cases) when case counts go down, but at the end of the day, viruses also naturally progress though waves which come and go on their own.

Not to mention the proclivities of people modifying their behaviors voluntarily. As has been the case with this virus, individual behaviors are the greatest determining factors to its spread. The most likely driver of the reduction has just been people adopting mitigation measures as well as the high rate of infection.
 
User avatar
casinterest
Posts: 14144
Joined: Sat Feb 12, 2005 5:30 am

Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q4 2020

Thu Dec 17, 2020 2:27 pm

It's amazing to see how poorly this 6 month old statement from Mike Pence has aged.

https://www.whitehouse.gov/articles/vic ... cond-wave/

Lost in the coverage is the fact that today less than 6% of Americans tested each week are found to have the virus. Cases have stabilized over the past two weeks, with the daily average case rate across the U.S. dropping to 20,000—down from 30,000 in April and 25,000 in May. And in the past five days, deaths are down to fewer than 750 a day, a dramatic decline from 2,500 a day a few weeks ago—and a far cry from the 5,000 a day that some were predicting.

 
art
Posts: 4221
Joined: Tue Feb 08, 2005 11:46 am

Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q4 2020

Sat Dec 19, 2020 11:15 am

I am in the UK and am hearing that a different strain of the virus has appeared here. At the same time there is an unexpected increase in the R0 value. There is speculation that the 'new' strain which has appeared is more infectious. Has this been noticed elsewhere?
 
Tiredofhumanity
Posts: 168
Joined: Sat Sep 19, 2020 9:27 pm

Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q4 2020

Sun Dec 20, 2020 1:45 am

art wrote:
I am in the UK and am hearing that a different strain of the virus has appeared here. At the same time there is an unexpected increase in the R0 value. There is speculation that the 'new' strain which has appeared is more infectious. Has this been noticed elsewhere?


It's apparently now in the Netherlands :scared::

https://news.sky.com/story/dutch-govern ... t-12168042

I hope Boris is just pulling this R0 increase of 0.4 out of a certain place, to support the Tier 4 move out of an abundance of caution. I have not heard anything from the scientists corroborating this value, so I'm confused/skeptical/terrified all at the same time.

Where's Doc Lightening when you need him.
 
flyguy89
Posts: 3440
Joined: Tue Feb 24, 2009 6:43 pm

Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q4 2020

Sun Dec 20, 2020 4:00 am

Tiredofhumanity wrote:
art wrote:
I am in the UK and am hearing that a different strain of the virus has appeared here. At the same time there is an unexpected increase in the R0 value. There is speculation that the 'new' strain which has appeared is more infectious. Has this been noticed elsewhere?


It's apparently now in the Netherlands :scared::

https://news.sky.com/story/dutch-govern ... t-12168042

I hope Boris is just pulling this R0 increase of 0.4 out of a certain place, to support the Tier 4 move out of an abundance of caution. I have not heard anything from the scientists corroborating this value, so I'm confused/skeptical/terrified all at the same time.

Where's Doc Lightening when you need him.


According to this article, based on evidence thus far, the strain has much higher transmissibility, but they're not seeing that it causes more severe disease, hospitalizations, or would impact the effectiveness of the vaccines. Will still need to be monitored closely.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.cnbc.c ... -know.html
 
User avatar
Francoflier
Posts: 5937
Joined: Wed Oct 31, 2001 12:27 pm

Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q4 2020

Sun Dec 20, 2020 6:59 am

From a layman's standpoint, it would make sense that the virus would evolve towards greater and easier transmissibility. As we constantly look for way to curb it through social distancing, mask wearing, hand washing etc., We pretty much force natural selection towards strains that can get around all these measures.

The virus doesn't 'want' to be deadly, it just 'wants' to spread as much as possible.
 
art
Posts: 4221
Joined: Tue Feb 08, 2005 11:46 am

Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q4 2020

Sun Dec 20, 2020 12:37 pm

The variant termed 'S', said to be much more transmissible, looks like it is supplanting the 'current' form of the virus in the UK. If/when it gets a foothold in the US, what are the chances of the hospitals in all areas of the US being able to offer appropriate treatment to all in need? I fear this new variant may be the straw which breaks the camel's back in some areas.

Should hospitals become overwhelmed, what action will the states concerned take?
 
GDB
Posts: 14408
Joined: Wed May 23, 2001 6:25 pm

Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q4 2020

Sun Dec 20, 2020 12:43 pm

When it comes to getting a vaccine, all right for some, yes he meets the age criteria but he's not even a UK citizen and his media has done more than it's fair share of damage during the crisis;
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rFopNl6AQbA

Nice of the NHS to jab the old bastard considering his media outlets on both sides of the pond loathe it's very existence.
(The nations with the worst governments of recent times all have major Murdoch media, the US, UK and Australia. The dumb down and make 'em hate factory).
 
flyguy89
Posts: 3440
Joined: Tue Feb 24, 2009 6:43 pm

Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q4 2020

Sun Dec 20, 2020 7:16 pm

art wrote:
The variant termed 'S', said to be much more transmissible, looks like it is supplanting the 'current' form of the virus in the UK. If/when it gets a foothold in the US, what are the chances of the hospitals in all areas of the US being able to offer appropriate treatment to all in need? I fear this new variant may be the straw which breaks the camel's back in some areas.

Should hospitals become overwhelmed, what action will the states concerned take?

Too soon to tell at this point. At the moment, based on what's currently known, they're not seeing that the new strain causes more severe disease or increased hospitalizations.
 
art
Posts: 4221
Joined: Tue Feb 08, 2005 11:46 am

Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q4 2020

Sun Dec 20, 2020 8:21 pm

flyguy89 wrote:
art wrote:
The variant termed 'S', said to be much more transmissible, looks like it is supplanting the 'current' form of the virus in the UK. If/when it gets a foothold in the US, what are the chances of the hospitals in all areas of the US being able to offer appropriate treatment to all in need? I fear this new variant may be the straw which breaks the camel's back in some areas.

Should hospitals become overwhelmed, what action will the states concerned take?

Too soon to tell at this point. At the moment, based on what's currently known, they're not seeing that the new strain causes more severe disease or increased hospitalizations.


I'm not suggesting it increases the severity of the disease, rather rhat if it increases the number of infections {with the same ratio of infectees needing hospital treatment) to the point where hospitals in some areas run out of resources, how will the authorities respond? Close all schools, colleges, non-essential businesses? Order people to stay at home? Open up quarantine centres and detain infected people there?
 
cpd
Posts: 6823
Joined: Sat Jun 28, 2008 4:46 am

Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q4 2020

Sun Dec 20, 2020 10:49 pm

Francoflier wrote:
From a layman's standpoint, it would make sense that the virus would evolve towards greater and easier transmissibility. As we constantly look for way to curb it through social distancing, mask wearing, hand washing etc., We pretty much force natural selection towards strains that can get around all these measures.

The virus doesn't 'want' to be deadly, it just 'wants' to spread as much as possible.


Are you saying that the virus has specifically adapted because we imposed social distancing and other measures, and what concrete proof do you have to back this claim?


In Sydney we've got another outbreak unfortunately caused so it seems by a few people not doing the right thing so they've ruined it for everyone and we'll be spending our Christmas holidays in varying degrees of lockdowns.
 
ltbewr
Posts: 15858
Joined: Thu Jan 29, 2004 1:24 pm

Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q4 2020

Mon Dec 21, 2020 10:48 am

More countries are not allowing travel to/from the UK, governor of state of NY asking for USA to also ban travel to/from the UK due to the 'new strain' of Covid-19 that is more easily transmittable found there and more infectious among younger persons.
https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/brit ... s-n1251884
https://www.businessinsider.com/cuomo-c ... in-2020-12
 
art
Posts: 4221
Joined: Tue Feb 08, 2005 11:46 am

Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q4 2020

Mon Dec 21, 2020 11:04 am

ltbewr wrote:
More countries are not allowing travel to/from the UK, governor of state of NY asking for USA to also ban travel to/from the UK due to the 'new strain' of Covid-19 that is more easily transmittable found there and more infectious among younger persons.
https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/brit ... s-n1251884
https://www.businessinsider.com/cuomo-c ... in-2020-12


Unfortunately it is bound to come to the US since US citizens can return to the US from other countries. At some point at least 1 American will arrive in the US with the Mk2 version of the disease and infect 1 or more other people. Since the Mk2 version looks to be much more transmissable than Mk1, it should take over from Mk1, given time.
 
User avatar
Francoflier
Posts: 5937
Joined: Wed Oct 31, 2001 12:27 pm

Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q4 2020

Mon Dec 21, 2020 11:28 am

ltbewr wrote:
More countries are not allowing travel to/from the UK, governor of state of NY asking for USA to also ban travel to/from the UK due to the 'new strain' of Covid-19 that is more easily transmittable found there and more infectious among younger persons.
https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/brit ... s-n1251884
https://www.businessinsider.com/cuomo-c ... in-2020-12


It's all a bit futile and, like many Covid measures, completely pavlovian.
By the time the new strain was discovered and its increased virulence understood, it had already left the UK borders and is now happily establishing itself in many other nations...
Just like the travel bans from China earlier this year, it is too little, too late and bound to fail, though I suppose it may somewhat prevent it from spreading abroad too rapidly.
 
Derico
Posts: 4505
Joined: Mon Dec 20, 1999 9:14 am

Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q4 2020

Mon Dec 21, 2020 2:48 pm

Yeah, this whole travel and border closure situation is now officially ridiculous. I have been a staunch defender of lockdowns and a rather top-heavy approach to the anti-pandemic measures for one year now, and have heavily criticized the people who openly flaunted all the measures, and refused to be a good citizen and bear just a little bit of sacrifice (since those same people also don't want to pay emergency taxes), because of quite frankly selfishness.

But now that a year has gone by, it is time governments start to analyze what are rational measures and what are useless and irrational ones. It is absolutely criminal that governments around the world have not even gathered to formulate a way to slowly reopen international borders, in a slow controlled fashion. In fact in the last few weeks these border closings have gotten worse.

IT IS RIDICULOUS to continue these border shutdowns. Most countries now have exponentially more cases of community transmission, and some isolated case coming from overseas will not make a difference. And even there, it should not really happen, because while I am saying that borders should be reopened gradually starting immediately really, I don't mean to suggest quarantine and other measures are not continued. If you want to travel, you should vaccinate, you should quarantine for the 14 days, you should have a tracking app for as long as you are in the foreign country. I'm all for that. But it is insane to fathom we will continue to have the situation of 2020 carry into 2021 when the policy completely failed, since it can only work when implemented when a new outbreak is isolated to one city or small region.

These current authorities are just too lazy too do the sensible thing.
 
User avatar
Pellegrine
Posts: 2691
Joined: Thu Mar 29, 2007 10:19 am

Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q4 2020

Tue Dec 22, 2020 10:35 am

I'm someone who believes in measures and closures, a top-down absolute and resolute approach, and a science guided progressive response.

Since SARS-Cov-2 is a coronavirus after-all, since measures have failed spectacularly in the US and Europe, since there are multiple strains globally, and since coronaviruses are by nature highly contagious and highly mutative....it is now highly likely this disease will become endemic.

This is in no way a reason to forgo protective measures; nor validate ignorant, usually politically conservative attitudes who believe, "everyone's going to get it anyway." We have to work harder, smarter, and .punch down on scientific ignorance.

I'm staying in my bunker.
 
User avatar
ArcticSEA
Posts: 371
Joined: Thu Oct 15, 2020 8:04 pm

Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q4 2020

Tue Dec 22, 2020 11:48 am

Fauci (the person everyone pro-lockdown was praising until 5 minutes ago) cautions against hysterical over-reaction to the mutation (of which there are 4000+) circulating in the UK.
https://www.pbs.org/newshour/show/fauci ... -mutations
 
User avatar
casinterest
Posts: 14144
Joined: Sat Feb 12, 2005 5:30 am

Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q4 2020

Tue Dec 22, 2020 2:20 pm

ArcticSEA wrote:
Fauci (the person everyone pro-lockdown was praising until 5 minutes ago) cautions against hysterical over-reaction to the mutation (of which there are 4000+) circulating in the UK.
https://www.pbs.org/newshour/show/fauci ... -mutations


Why are you attacking Fauci?

He is right not to have a hysterical over reaction.

From the article.

ou have to understand, though, Judy, that this coronavirus is an RNA virus. That's the makeup, the genetic makeup. And these types of viruses tend to mutate a lot. Most of the mutations have no function or relevance. This one has a suggestion that it might allow the virus to spread more readily.

We're still seeking out evidence to prove or disapprove that. But let's make an assumption that it is, in fact, making the virus more transmissible, even though it hasn't been proven yet.

It doesn't seem at all to have any impact on the virulence or what we call the deadliness of the virus. It doesn't make people more sick. And it doesn't seem to have any impact on the protective nature of the vaccines that we're currently using.


So why again are you attacking others for your lack of comprehension of what is occurring?
 
Derico
Posts: 4505
Joined: Mon Dec 20, 1999 9:14 am

Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q4 2020

Wed Dec 23, 2020 1:27 am

Pellegrine wrote:
I'm someone who believes in measures and closures, a top-down absolute and resolute approach, and a science guided progressive response.

Since SARS-Cov-2 is a coronavirus after-all, since measures have failed spectacularly in the US and Europe, since there are multiple strains globally, and since coronaviruses are by nature highly contagious and highly mutative....it is now highly likely this disease will become endemic.

This is in no way a reason to forgo protective measures; nor validate ignorant, usually politically conservative attitudes who believe, "everyone's going to get it anyway." We have to work harder, smarter, and .punch down on scientific ignorance.

I'm staying in my bunker.


While in general I agree with you, it has now been one year... and at some point, the "Sunken Cost of past Treasure" logical problem must start creeping up. I'm not saying forgo all protective measures, certainly not ignore scientific advice. But doubling or tripling down on the past measures that are claimed to be "for stopping the spread", to avoid the common sense intuition that you cannot stop a virus at this stage in it's propagation, is the beginning of that logical fallacy. Everyone is locking out the UK now... When any person with half a wit to them will know that this new strain that has been "detected" now, has probably been around for months and has long ago crossed multiple borders. So these measures are completely unscientific, and just cheap reactionary measures for public consumption that don't even produce that result (of reassuring people). This is an example of the Sunken Cost of past treasure that I'm afraid we are sinking into, pun intended.

I also think there still remains a huge confusion in the public, and even authorities (under pressure from public opinion), between stopping the spread of the virus and slowing the spread to permit health systems to cope.

Which is why I think international lockdowns increasingly make no sense at all, when the far bigger impact at this point in time will be local behaviors and preventive measures. I believe one double down on the local measures and behaviors and start lifting the hurdles of trade, education, and family ties. Let the people who want to study abroad, see family abroad, engage in long-term economic and business trade go freely again, with the correct and proper measures. This minuscule percent of the human population that would travel every week will not have any significant impact with the exception of so-called "free-zones" or areas with low endemic transmission rates. We need to start dropping the measures that create insignificant return but create large economic damage and also unduly magnify the crisis ("borders closing" is an unnecessarily scary headline of a measure that has little to no actual preventive effectiveness at this point in time).
 
Toenga
Posts: 311
Joined: Thu Jan 23, 2020 2:55 am

Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q4 2020

Wed Dec 23, 2020 4:54 am

Derico wrote:
Pellegrine wrote:
I'm someone who believes in measures and closures, a top-down absolute and resolute approach, and a science guided progressive response.

Since SARS-Cov-2 is a coronavirus after-all, since measures have failed spectacularly in the US and Europe, since there are multiple strains globally, and since coronaviruses are by nature highly contagious and highly mutative....it is now highly likely this disease will become endemic.

This is in no way a reason to forgo protective measures; nor validate ignorant, usually politically conservative attitudes who believe, "everyone's going to get it anyway." We have to work harder, smarter, and .punch down on scientific ignorance.

I'm staying in my bunker.


While in general I agree with you, it has now been one year... and at some point, the "Sunken Cost of past Treasure" logical problem must start creeping up. I'm not saying forgo all protective measures, certainly not ignore scientific advice. But doubling or tripling down on the past measures that are claimed to be "for stopping the spread", to avoid the common sense intuition that you cannot stop a virus at this stage in it's propagation, is the beginning of that logical fallacy. Everyone is locking out the UK now... When any person with half a wit to them will know that this new strain that has been "detected" now, has probably been around for months and has long ago crossed multiple borders. So these measures are completely unscientific, and just cheap reactionary measures for public consumption that don't even produce that result (of reassuring people). This is an example of the Sunken Cost of past treasure that I'm afraid we are sinking into, pun intended.

I also think there still remains a huge confusion in the public, and even authorities (under pressure from public opinion), between stopping the spread of the virus and slowing the spread to permit health systems to cope.

Which is why I think international lockdowns increasingly make no sense at all, when the far bigger impact at this point in time will be local behaviors and preventive measures. I believe one double down on the local measures and behaviors and start lifting the hurdles of trade, education, and family ties. Let the people who want to study abroad, see family abroad, engage in long-term economic and business trade go freely again, with the correct and proper measures. This minuscule percent of the human population that would travel every week will not have any significant impact with the exception of so-called "free-zones" or areas with low endemic transmission rates. We need to start dropping the measures that create insignificant return but create large economic damage and also unduly magnify the crisis ("borders closing" is an unnecessarily scary headline of a measure that has little to no actual preventive effectiveness at this point in time).


Inspite of international tourism normally being a significant contributor to the New Zealand economy, it now appears that the NZ economy will have only suffered a 2% decline in GDP over the year. A small decline in the first quarter, followed by an 11% decline during stringent lockdown in the second, was followed by a 14% rise in the third quarter, and an expectation that this rise will be sustained in the final quarter. 2021 is expected to be at least equal to 2019 and a return to moderate growth in 2022. Border closures and managed isolation and quarantine has been funded to at least the end of 2021 until vaccination is complete. I think only a few countries, such as Taiwan, that have also pursued similar policies would have economically out performed NZ.
And covid control measures has also lowered our deaths from flu meaning a gain in life expectancy this year.
Border closure is the single most effective measure, in the comprehensive raft of measures that has placed us in this enviable position.
By the way, we have not closed our border to arrivals from the UK, those booked through places in the managed isolation system are not prevented from entering for there 14 day managed isolation with scheduled testing.
 
Kent350787
Posts: 2093
Joined: Wed May 28, 2008 12:06 am

Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q4 2020

Wed Dec 23, 2020 5:07 am

Toenga wrote:
By the way, we have not closed our border to arrivals from the UK, those booked through places in the managed isolation system are not prevented from entering for there 14 day managed isolation with scheduled testing.


Yes. Australia too, with its managed quarantine system is still open to returned travellers from the UK. The view is that the control measure currently in place aren't changed by the apparent new strain.

From memory, Australia has fared slightly worse than NZ, with -3% GDP, most likely due to the hard lockdown in Melbourne for several months. Although the closure of internal borders to NSW with its current outbreak will hurt economically (and, to a Sydney resident, seems a little excessive), it should only be for a short period. As with NZ, everything apart from international tourism and concerts/nightclubs are getting back to "normal"
 
Toenga
Posts: 311
Joined: Thu Jan 23, 2020 2:55 am

Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q4 2020

Wed Dec 23, 2020 6:17 am

Kent350787 wrote:
Toenga wrote:
By the way, we have not closed our border to arrivals from the UK, those booked through places in the managed isolation system are not prevented from entering for there 14 day managed isolation with scheduled testing.


Yes. Australia too, with its managed quarantine system is still open to returned travellers from the UK. The view is that the control measure currently in place aren't changed by the apparent new strain.

From memory, Australia has fared slightly worse than NZ, with -3% GDP, most likely due to the hard lockdown in Melbourne for several months. Although the closure of internal borders to NSW with its current outbreak will hurt economically (and, to a Sydney resident, seems a little excessive), it should only be for a short period. As with NZ, everything apart from international tourism and concerts/nightclubs are getting back to "normal"


Trying to persuade the vast majority of Australians that abandoning its tightly controlled border managed isolation would give a better economic result, would be seen as an exercise in stupidity, But it would provoke some wonderfull creative Australian directness.
  • 1
  • 4
  • 5
  • 6
  • 7
  • 8

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: Aaron747, DN4CAAD, LCDFlight, Runway28L and 24 guests

Popular Searches On Airliners.net

Top Photos of Last:   24 Hours  •  48 Hours  •  7 Days  •  30 Days  •  180 Days  •  365 Days  •  All Time

Military Aircraft Every type from fighters to helicopters from air forces around the globe

Classic Airliners Props and jets from the good old days

Flight Decks Views from inside the cockpit

Aircraft Cabins Passenger cabin shots showing seat arrangements as well as cargo aircraft interior

Cargo Aircraft Pictures of great freighter aircraft

Government Aircraft Aircraft flying government officials

Helicopters Our large helicopter section. Both military and civil versions

Blimps / Airships Everything from the Goodyear blimp to the Zeppelin

Night Photos Beautiful shots taken while the sun is below the horizon

Accidents Accident, incident and crash related photos

Air to Air Photos taken by airborne photographers of airborne aircraft

Special Paint Schemes Aircraft painted in beautiful and original liveries

Airport Overviews Airport overviews from the air or ground

Tails and Winglets Tail and Winglet closeups with beautiful airline logos